I have two predictions about a couple of New York politicians.
First, Chuck Schumer. Chuck’s getting a little bit of attention because he’s signaled that he’s completely done with Susan Collins’ shit (warning: Politico link). Good — she’s a fucking useless time waster. I guess Harry Reid once said that you’ll get her vote, but never on anything important, which is a form of performative bipartisanship that media wankers like, but doesn’t get anything done. Collins is also salty about her tough campaign, which if Maine had any sense, she would have lost. Too fucking bad.
Anyway, my prediction about Schumer is that the a primary challenge by someone like AOC is about as likely as Collins doing anything about her many concerns. The New York federal office holders who have lost primaries in the last couple of cycles took their constituents for granted. Schumer shows up. If we have festivals in Rochester this Summer, I can guarantee you that some staffer will be holding up a “Meet Chuck Schumer” sign and Chuck will be there, taking selfies and answering questions. Also, AOC is a smart politician and a Schumer primary challenge would be a dumb move.
Second, Mario’s kid. Another accusation (unwanted touching) came out a couple of days ago, and there are almost certainly more to come. Cuomo has vowed not to resign, and there aren’t enough votes to impeach him. The legislature voted to strip him of emergency powers, but to allow him to extend the 96 emergency executive orders he’s already issued, which is a fair bit less than nothing. Calls for him to resign from the Assembly Speaker and Senate Leader are just words until they have the votes to impeach.
My easy prediction here is that, barring some live boy / dead girl revelation, Cuomo won’t resign. Hell, he might even run for another term. (And, no, AOC won’t challenge him, which is something you hear every so often. A Tish James challenge is more likely.)
This isn’t a prediction, but Gillibrand has been pretty weak sauce on Cuomo, in contrast to her position on Franken. She’s probably a more likely target for AOC in 2024, if that’s in the cards (which I doubt).