Dr. Rochelle Walensky, CDC director, has a warning for anyone who will listen:
NEW: CDC Director Walensky on rising US coronavirus cases and hospitalizations:
"Right now, I'm scared … I so badly want to be done, I know you all so badly want to be done. We are just almost there, but not quite yet, and so I'm asking you to just hold on a little longer." pic.twitter.com/hYnjOSmXqK
— NBC News (@NBCNews) March 29, 2021
She says we’re where France, Germany and Italy were a few weeks back: on the cusp of a spike in infections. She also says we have the power to prevent that. She’s right. Via CNN:
“I think we’re investigating some of these outbreaks at the local level, with individual states. I think that we are seeing that many of these states are opening up at levels that we wouldn’t necessarily recommend. I am working with the governors,” Walensky said. “I will be speaking with them tomorrow to try and buckle down on trying to refrain from opening up too fast.”
“The thing that is different this time is that we actually have it in our power to be done with the scale of the vaccination and that will be so much slower if we have another surge to deal with as well,” she added.
Good luck with that, doc. I’ll be shocked (in a good way) if Americans take a lesson from the experience of other countries. Blazing our own trail of stupidity is the American way.
In other “so close” news, President Biden is set to announce that 90% of all U.S. adults will be eligible for vaccination in three weeks. So. Damn. Close.
Open thread!
westyny
First or second, it doesn’t matter to me . . . But I’m very leery of all the pictures I’m seeing on instagram of dining and beachgoing.
Old School
What 10% of adults will not be eligible?
RandomMonster
I think it was around this time last year that TFG said that all U.S. adults are eligible to drink bleach.
Served
So so close, but I am very fed up with the local leadership in and around Chicago. They chose to open bars to 50% capacity in early March, and just like October when they opened them to 40%, we were seeing a surge after two weeks, especially among the 18-29 and 30-40 year old contingent.
Even worse this time around is that we had St. Patrick’s Day between the opening and the evidence of the spike, which is obviously turning out to have been gasoline on the fire. Daily cases are up almost 30% week-over-week now.
When the mayor and health department leader comment on the spike, they talk like they are observing a distant, mysterious star. They haven’t taken any action to re-enact restrictions, they just tell people to “avoid bar crawls.” It’s an abdication of responsibility that’s turning out to be a hallmark of this mayor.
We know outdoors is safer, as our numbers maintained a low daily cadence throughout summer, but it’s still not warm enough to do outdoor-only activities. So, when the mayor’s solution is to increase outdoor capacity allowances, but doesn’t lower the indoor capacity, all it does is make more people gather.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
It’s been like this the entire pandemic, the microsecond the numbers go good, the dimwits scream “IT’S OVER! PARTY TIME!” and it on to the next wave.
Alison Rose
Nominating this for a rotating tag.
Bobby Thomson
No offense, but Florida Man has been boning the country for more than 20 years.
Old School
@Old School:
31 states have indicated they will fully open eligibility by April 19th. That seems to cover 90% of U.S. adults.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Old School: I don’t know, I feel like it’s a near lock that here in Maryland I’ll still be in that 10%.
Alison Rose
@Old School: Anyone with the surname Trump?
A girl can dream…
dmsilev
@Old School: It’s state-by-state. Most states will have “all adults eligible” by the middle of April but a few are saying late April or first week in May.
Lyrebird
@Old School: I’m not sure, but maybe the margin also allows for those adults who have had allergic reactions to other vaccines & have docs telling them to wait.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@dmsilev: This is only OK if they have plenty of capacity to vaccinate everyone quickly. If they don’t, and people are going to have to wait several weeks to a month or more for a shot, they should roll each group out stratified by age. A healthy 55 year old should not have to compete with a healthy 18 year old for scarce doses.
MisterForkbeard
@Old School: That was my question. I thought everyone over 16 would be eligible on April 15th?
Maybe that was just aspirational? I guess some states are behind.
dmsilev
The good news is that roughly 3/4s of the seniors (65+) in the country have gotten at least one dose already and roughly half are fully vaccinated. So, even if a combination of our own stupid impatience and viral variants leads to another surge, the most vulnerable are well on their way to being protected. Not that the disease is a walk in the park for younger people, but at least it’s less likely to be fatal.
WhatsMyNym
@dmsilev: WA is waiting until more vaccines are available, we have plenty of people who are already waiting.
dmsilev
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: California is doing that to some extent; people 50 and older become eligible as of this Thursday, and then two weeks after that availability becomes general. Estimates are that something over half of all adults in the state are already eligible (age 65+, occupation, pre-existing condition).
Cameron
Ms. Cracker, as I’m sure you’ve heard, Gov. DeCovid’s only regret is that he shut down the state for even one day. Perhaps even a biglier brain than his idol in Mar-a-Lago.
debbie
@dmsilev:
In Ohio, they’re about to open it up to everyone 16 and up. The 16- and 17-year-olds can’t have Pfizer yet, but they can take Moderna or J&J.
trollhattan
California, where Republicans are scrambling to recall the governor has a 1.5% positivity rate over the last seven days and 19,000 new cases. Texas, where the governor gives everybody freedom® to go infect one another has a 6.5% positivity rate and 28,000 new cases, all with 10 million fewer citizens.
What’s wrong with this picture?
I’m liking our chances here. The county Covid hospitalization count is below a hundred and the ICU count is fourteen. In January the ICU count was well over a hundred. Get that jab!
VOR
MN is making all adults (defined as 16+) eligible for vaccine starting March 31st.
debbie
@MisterForkbeard:
Pfizer isn’t approved for those under 18.
BruceFromOhio
This is not new. And hordes of spring breakers licking eachother’s faces is not news.
The various states leadership exulting the almighty dollar on the grave of constituents is not new. And as the almighty news media so ably demonstrated at the Biden presser, the pandemic is not news.
The state of Ohio has chicken-shitted itself on reporting deaths, and the trends for more death are all … wait for it … going back up again. With untold numbers of vaccinations daily, and the chance for every Ohioan over the age of 16 to now get darted, what else can the fearless idiocracy do, except go get infected, get hospitalized, maybe die, and take as many as possible with them?
If this surprises you, get ready for what’s next.
Betty Cracker
@Cameron: I worry about where we’ll be this summer when everyone goes inside and shuts the windows because of the heat. Maybe enough folks will have been vaccinated by then that we’ll be okay, but it’s a race against the clock. DeFuckFace ain’t gonna do anything different, especially now that Fox News is sucking his dick on the daily as heir to you-know-who.
dmsilev
@trollhattan: I believe CA right now has the lowest per capita case rate in the country. LA County, and others, are probably going to “graduate” to the orange tier when the state updates their numbers tomorrow.
Whether we can keep the lid on for another month or two is of course the key question.
japa21
The ironic thing is that, for me, knowing the vaccine was coming along actually made the restrictions easier to deal with. Before it was more like, this is never going to end. That was causing much of the frustration.
Brachiator
Yeah, Americans are dumb, and seem to believe that they have an inalienable right to return to normal. No masks and all the crowds they want. And no government telling them to wash their hands.
To be fair, there is a lot of this in Europe as well, but Americans like to make a lot of noise about it. The thing is, the virus don’t care. Some folks just don’t understand this.
By contrast it was cool to read about the 5,000 people in Spain who were allowed to attend a music concert. They all had to test negative and wore masks.
An upcoming issue is how people deal with friends and family members who refuse to get the vaccine. Do you just hope that herd immunity will take care of everything?
germy
NY has opened eligibility to everyone 30 and over, starting tomorrow.
At the same time, bars are reopening and filling with 20-somethings.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@dmsilev: Maryland is still at 60 or older unless you are in certain occupations or have a comorbidity. I’m 51, will be 52 in July and all I want is a decent crack at getting my shot before people 40 and younger with my same health status.
It would have been nice if society had seen fit to give families of front line health care workers (my wife is one of those) some level of priority but society has not.
MrSnrub
I feel like my area (suburban Philadelphia) is already seeing an upswing in cases.
Suzanne
@debbie: Pfizer is the only one approved for 16- and 17-year-olds at this point.
Jeffery
Sunday is Easter. Lots of people will get together for a big family day/meal. The next surge is guaranteed. About two weeks from Sunday.
Suzanne
@MrSnrub: Yes, Philly and Allegheny County both. This sucks.
germy
Any New Yorker age 16 or older can make an appointment starting April 6.
The vaccines currently available are authorized only for those age 16 or older.
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker: It is a race against the clock.
On one side, we’ve got the vaccinations. On the other, we have the new variants, premature openings, irresponsible people, and the
weathercoming “indoors with air conditioning” months.karen marie
I’m doing my part in helping neighbors see the utility of getting a shot and understanding how easy it is to get an appointment and get it done. My second shot (Pfizer) is on my calendar for April 12. w00t!
lafcolleen
@Served: I posted in the vaccine update thread about my difficulty getting my second shot here in Chicago. Brief version is my 2nd appointment on 3/30 was canceled yesterday by Walgreens (due to site not having Pfizer). Spent hours on Sunday trying to get rebooked, no luck. repeatedly that there is not a single appointment in Northern and Central Illinois for at least a week, no doses available,.all alloted. MAYBE I could get a dose if someome.canceled (and each pharmacy keeps its own list)
My friend was scheduled.for her 2nd appointment this am. She told pharmacist about my problem and I got a confirmed appointment and shot done by noon today. Pharmacist says he has doses and not enough appointments.
so cluster all around here in Chicago.
WaterGirl
@lafcolleen: Your story was so horrendous that I ended up giving you 5 stickers. :-)
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Brachiator:
Thank FSM we have Cole for that.
trollhattan
I see (per JH) the US will hit 50M fully vaccinated by tomorrowish, with another 100M currently on their first jab. With the injection rate increasing this should progress quickly.
germy
@lafcolleen:
I got my pfizer vaccine at a NY Walgreens. I’ve got a second appoint scheduled (they scheduled the second one 28 days after the first, even though the recommendation is 21 days for pfizer) and I hope they don’t run out of vaccines. Especially now with eligibility expanding.
Betty Cracker
@WaterGirl: Yep. I assume the arrival of summer will be a positive development for people in most states — outdoor events, open windows for better ventilation, kids out of school, etc. But it will be a negative in places like FL, TX and AZ, all of which have dumbass wingnut governors who won’t take commonsense measures. Here’s hoping vaccine distribution saves our asses.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Jeffery: Don’t forget the faithful sing “Nearer Thy God To Thee” unmasked, guess they really mean it.
Brachiator
@germy:
This gets interesting. Interesting material for medical researchers. Most discussion about herd immunity has been about percentage of total population. But we could have a situation where those most likely to require hospitalization if infected have been vaccinated, while younger people less likely to get ill are running around potentially spreading the virus.
WaterGirl
@Brachiator:
I believe that has been the case for quite awhile.
trollhattan
@Jeffery:
iMO spring breakers will have a larger effect than Easter gatherings. We’ll see. My kid’s missing her first college spring break because they are maintaining their sports bubble. Thanks, sports. (She’s PISSED at some girls she knows who are in Mexico this week.)
Last weekend was 80ish here and the crowds downtown were the biggest I’ve seen since Halloween. The good news is outdoor dining and drinking are pleasant again, even at night.
lafcolleen
@WaterGirl: Yes! Thank you. I just emailed my.co-workers that I am.a jittery mess. the abruptly canceled appointment surprise combined with the can’t get help rage now coated in a blanket of surprise successful vaccine euphoria has turned my brain to mush and.my attention span has been reduced to that of a gnat.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Betty Cracker: It was in the mid 90’s here in the LA area yesterday.
WaterGirl
@lafcolleen: It can take awhile for our emotions to catch up with our brains. I predict you will be in a better place by Wednesday, for sure. Hoping i am right.
sdhays
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: At least you can go to a restaurant at full capacity and eat dinner. I’m sure that makes things better. Thanks, Governor Hogan!
//
BruceFromOhio
@trollhattan:
That is the one element I will relent on, good weather and getting a table outside. Met up with a buddy recently to do just that, and it was great – everybody was masked until seated, the tables were way the hell apart, and the proprietor limited all seating to reservations only, i.e. you couldn’t just show up. It all worked a treat, and it was glorious to sit in the sun and have a drink with someone I hadn’t seen in ages while we plotted.
Miss Bianca
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Yep, definitely seeing this at a local level. Which is why I am doing my level best to avoid going anywhere in town where they’re not being diligent about masking up. As a result…I’m not going much of anywhere, in town, really, except to my office. Oh, and the Mennonite bakery.
smith
Don’t understand GA opening up vax to everyone so soon. They have the next to worst vax coverage per capita of all the states (outdone only by AL), and their current per capita death rate is second highest. Seems to me they’d want to get their Olds vaccinated ASAP. Could it be that there is unusually high vaccine resistance there?
sdhays
@?BillinGlendaleCA: LOL.
cain
@dmsilev:
Oregon is in the latter half although seeing a lot of texts on appointments, but I’m not eligible for any of them :P
sdhays
@smith: Maybe, and bear with me here, the governor of Georgia is really shitty at his job.
CaseyL
I’ve been crossing my fingers very very hard that we reach peak vaccinations before the next surge, but Director Walensky put a big ol’ kibosh on that. Goddammit, I wish the only people who died of this were the ones who refuse to take precautions and refuse to get vaccinated.
Betty Cracker
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Do you think the heat will make the cases spike in CA too? I’m worried about a combination of weather extremes that keep people inside plus a high positivity rate and governments that are driven by wingnut politics rather than science. But possibly vaccines will save us regardless.
Brachiator
@WaterGirl:
RE …while younger people less likely to get ill are running around potentially spreading the virus.
In many places, those flouting the rules have represented a range of age groups. Those mid west bikers were older folk.
It will be interesting to know what percentage of people offered the virus are getting it, and whether this is equally distributed across age groups.
smith
@Betty Cracker:
This article has helped me climb down a bit from the dismay at seeing our cases climb again. Still, it’s a matter of timing, and we might not have gotten it right.
Villago Delenda Est
DeathSantis, Abbott, Ducey, and other GQp morans will not listen to her.
Because they’re monsters, just like their beloved leader, TFG.
debbie
@Suzanne:
I look forward to the correction on tonight’s local news. //
germy
I’m concerned about the variants. I assume we’ll be offered boosters later in the year.
The unvaccinated-by-choice are making it easier for this virus to evolve and mutate.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@sdhays: Oh yes I’m running out to do that on a nightly basis! Hogan was pretty good on the pandemic, to be honest, until recently when he suddenly became a fucking idiot.
burnspbesq
I don’t expect the pandemic will ever abate in Texas.
trollhattan
@smith:
GA and AL have the nation’s lowest vaccine rates so plenty of room for improvement there.
karen marie
@smith: Many people are not on the internet as much as frequenters of this joint and don’t know to look online to their state/county health department for vaccine availability. The neighbors I talked with this morning had no idea that there was a large vaccination site not too far away with (when I made my first appointment) plenty of available slots. The only way I knew about it was through a “find a vaccine” link someone put up here a couple weeks ago. I have no idea whether local news shows are providing information about how to make an appointment and where but my guess is that whatever info they provide is grossly inadequate.
trollhattan
@Betty Cracker:
Much of California doesn’t suffer from mid-summer heat like, say, where you are. Or the South and Southwest. Inland desert and Central Valley get damn hot but are a fraction of the state’s 40M.
Limiting myself to the Sacramento region, our first surge was midsummer, predictably peaking a couple weeks after July 4 then going very quiet until Halloween, and all hell breaking out through the rest of the year and not easing until February-March. That first surge looks tiny in comparison to the holiday one, a minor third one could happen again this summer.
Folks are Covid-weary but merchants are far better equipped a year on, plus the vaccine. If there’s a wild card it’s school. Several districts are supposedly returning to class in April.
Betty Cracker
@trollhattan: Will schools will break for summer as usual? I haven’t seen any talk about using summer to catch up from 2020, but now that my kiddo is out of school, I’m not in the loop…
trollhattan
@Betty Cracker:
To my knowledge they’ll take summer vacation as usual. I think spring is a stopgap (at best) and the hope is for fall being the start of a full and normal school year.
smith
@karen marie:
That’s a good point — how is the non-internet population to know? In a normal country, we could probably reach them through their churches, but there are a lot of covid-denying churches out there…
Soprano2
We had some good news today, too. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are robustly effective in preventing infection under real-life conditions. washingtonpost.com/health/2021/03/29/vaccine-effective-essential-workers-study/?fbclid=IwAR2M5wdA8EE… Sometimes it really does seem as if everyone is addicted to bad news about Covid, because there has been so much of it, and good news like this gets buried under an avalanche of “oh no here we go again”.
I’m also going to repeat, yet again, that no one talks about the absolute zero amount of aid to state and local governments until the ARP, which is so recent that the money hasn’t been deployed, as a factor in governments letting things open up even if it wasn’t a particularly good idea. It’s really, really hard to run cities on much reduced amounts of sales tax revenue, which is what happens when a lot of local businesses are closed for an extended period of time. I know that over time they discovered that sometimes the money didn’t crater as much as they thought it would, but it takes time to discover that, and meanwhile things still have to be done and people have to be paid, and most cities don’t have much in the way of “rainy day funds”. I totally agree that much of this could have been handled much better, but don’t discount the pressure for revenue coming into play.
I’m hopeful that we’ll soon reach a tipping point that will allow the numbers to start going the right way again. I read that’s what happened in Israel when they reached about 26% of the population being vaccinated. You do have to take into account not just people who have been vaccinated, but people who’ve had covid and recovered from it within the past 6 months. As for the unvaccinated, there’s not a lot that can be done about them until the vaccines become truly FDA approved. I’m hopeful that as more and more people get their shots and others see that nothing bad happened to them, some of those who are reluctant will go ahead and get their shots. I think others will do it when they want to fly, or in some cases keep their jobs!
WaterGirl
@smith: I can’t speak for GA, but it could also be that the whole thing with vaccinations has been one giant clusterfuck, and not having to have different categories could greatly simplify things.
Ruckus
@Alison Rose:
I second this.
However.
I feel I’d be remiss if I didn’t take notice that we are not the only country doing the same stupid crap and reaping the same stupid penalties. And we are vaccinating a lot of people every day. We keep this up we may reach two goals. Most people vaccinated and a large portion of the idiots are no longer with us. First is good, second not quite the prize it might sound like to some but still, one has to take the good with the not so good.
Ruckus
@Old School:
CA opens availability to everyone over 16 on April 15.
NotMax
@Ruckus
Cliff’s Notes version of the U.S. (not alone in this, by any means):
Shut down too late, reopen too soon. Rinse. Repeat.
Ruckus
@karen marie:
My house rep, Grace Napolitano, sent an email out a on 3/12 giving all the places to get a shot and how to go about it within her district. I’ve saved it and printed it out for people in my seniors apt complex to use. I’m actually rather lucky that I’m 38 days out from my second shot and have plenty of masks to continue to wear.
Ruckus
@NotMax:
Yep, stupid just seems like a common US attribute.
Reality is that it is a human condition, brought on by birth and maintained by other stupid people.
Sebastian
@debbie:
As far as I know Pfizer is approved 16+. Moderna is not.
Sebastian
@lafcolleen:
Not sure about Walgreens but CVS only releases appointments for 3-5 days at a time and they load into their system very late in the evening/early in the morning Eastern Time. If you are Central Time I’d try my luck midnight until 3am.
Skepticat
Seconding that and thinking it might be good on the currency to replace “In gawd we trust.”