As we’re all aware, red states are dismantling the franchise to entrench white Republican minority rule. S1, the For the People Act bill to save democracy, could foil that plan, but it has to pass first. So, how to pass it?
As of now, it looks like the only way is for Democrats to go into a midterm that has been rigged at the state level to suppress Democratic votes and somehow defy history by being a party in power that manages to hold the House majority (now down to just two seats, I think), hold all current Senate seats and win at least two more Senate seats.
That’s a tall order, you say? I agree. But after reading Senator Manchin’s huffy, self-righteous and delusional WaPo op-ed here, it sure seems like he’s not going to budge on the filibuster, not even to secure American citizens’ most fundamental right:
The filibuster is a critical tool to protecting that input and our democratic form of government. That is why I have said it before and will say it again to remove any shred of doubt: There is no circumstance in which I will vote to eliminate or weaken the filibuster. The time has come to end these political games, and to usher a new era of bipartisanship where we find common ground on the major policy debates facing our nation.
Think about the recent history. In 2013, Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) led the charge to change Senate rules to eliminate the filibuster for Cabinet-level nominees and federal judges. I was one of only three Democratic senators to vote against this rule change. In 2017, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) proposed to lower the threshold to end debate on Supreme Court nominees to a simple majority. I voted against that change, too. Despite my votes, both rules changes were enacted and the filibuster was weakened, allowing the majority to more easily enact its agenda with little to no input from the minority.
Every time the Senate voted to weaken the filibuster in the past decade, the political dysfunction and gridlock have grown more severe. The political games playing out in the halls of Congress only fuel the hateful rhetoric and violence we see across our country right now. The truth is, my Democratic friends do not have all the answers and my Republican friends do not, either. This has always been the case.
Manchin isn’t too keen on using reconciliation to get around Republican obstructionism either:
I simply do not believe budget reconciliation should replace regular order in the Senate. How is that good for the future of this nation? Senate Democrats must avoid the temptation to abandon our Republican colleagues on important national issues. Republicans, however, have a responsibility to stop saying no, and participate in finding real compromise with Democrats.
So, don’t be getting any ideas about taking advantage of the parliamentarian’s recent ruling that Democrats can push through more than two bills via reconciliation before the midterms. As for voting rights? Manchin has a solution that probably did not occur to you: BIPARTISANSHIP!
There is also bipartisan support for voting reform and many of the initiatives outlined in the For the People Act. Our ultimate goal should be to restore bipartisan faith in our voting process by assuring all Americans that their votes will be counted, secured and protected. Efforts to expand voting hours and access, improve our election security and increase transparency in campaign finance and advertisement rules should and do have broad, bipartisan support and would quickly address the needs facing Americans today. Taking bipartisan action on voting reform would go a long way in restoring the American people’s faith in Congress and our ability to deliver results for them.
Yes, and monkeys flying out of my butt would go a long way in restoring my faith in flying monkeys and their ability to fly out of people’s butts, but that’s about as unlikely, IMO. It’s almost like Manchin doesn’t know Republicans have to suppress the vote to win elections because their ideas are unpopular, but of course he knows that. Is this just him posturing? Doesn’t sound like it.
Anyhoo, I’m not going to waste another second wondering about Manchin’s motives. The kindest thing I can say about him is that he’s better than either of my two U.S. senators. I had hoped the Senate filibuster-philes on our side would agree to a carve-out to address the red state power-grab that threatens our tottering democracy, but if I’m reading Manchin’s opinion correctly, that is now off the table.
Is that how you read Manchin’s piece too, or am I overreacting? Do you see any other way for the feds to protect voter rights, aside from an intervention by the courts that is then improbably upheld by the wingnut-dominated SCOTUS? Please talk me off the ledge or give me a hard shove.
mmolleur
It’s a mystery as to what he’s up to. Without passing Voting Rights, Dems will likely lose the Senate, McConnell goes back to being Majority leader and Manchin loses his Committee chairmanship and all the attention he so clearly loves. And he knows this. We’ll just have to see how it plays out. Meanwhile, remember Sinema’s recent statements and that she’s likely not playing any game at all, except with Susan Collins: who’s the stupidest woman in the Senate?
guachi
Yes. 2022 or bust.
Going to be a heavy lift considering all the gerrymandering.
Just think, if it weren’t for lawsuits in PA and NC that forced redistricting the Ds likely wouldn’t have a majority.
lowtechcyclist
I thought Manchin was at least agreeable to the talking filibuster. If that’s the case, then if at some point the Dems are willing to let the debate over S.1 go on for weeks on end (probably would have to be during what would otherwise be their August recess), they can probably push this thing through, once the GQP Senators finally run out of breath.
kindness
I suspect there will be wiggle room in how filibusters operate. Manchin has said he’d be OK with changing some of the existing rules but not eliminating the filibuster altogether. Krysten is a bigger mystery to me. Hopefully Schumer will be able to rope both of them in to put something in place that will allow Democrats to govern, because the current mess allows MoscowMitch to control the Senate from the minority. And if Democrats can’t produce in this 2 year cycle, Democrats will lose in the 2022 elections. Not that Joe or Krysten seem to take any responsibility for that.
trollhattan
Even DiFi arose from her nap to say she’d consider bypassing the filibuster to get voting rights passed. President Joe–the other one–seems hellbent on preserving Republican’s ability to continue electing Republicans as a minority party.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Yup. The slow boring of hard boards, as Hillary Clinton liked to say. If we can keep up the fund-raising from 2018 and 2020, find candidates who fit their constituencies even if they don’t tick all the boxes of twitter, and stay focused on winnable races, I think we can hold and expand the Senate, make unfrozen caveman Uncle Joe and goofy Cousin Krysten less relevant.
The House is a different question. We have no idea what the political landscape will be a year from now, eighteen months from now, but I’m less concerned about the historical model than I am about redistricting and Dem weakness in state elections.
cleek
Manchin is a coward.
Damien
Well, maybe we will defy the odds this midterm? I mean, the things Biden is doing so far have widespread bipartisan appeal and are already popular out of the gate. Hard to say that about the ACA, as it was pretty much demonized from the get go; I don’t remember any Republican douchebags trying to crow about what good the ACA was going to do for their constituents, whereas that’s already happening with multiple Republicans with the ARP.
Not to mention that Biden is just generally popular, and Congressional Democrats have a +7 net approval rating vs. a -19 for Congressional Republicans, which is pretty different than 2010 or 2014. Obviously a bunch of things could happen in the next 18 months to change our standing, but come in off the ledge until we see how the pandemic and economy are going.
Benw
Manchin is David Brooksian levels of “correctly identifying the problem and leaping to the worst solution” delusional.
FILIBUSTER UBER ALLES
Omnes Omnibus
I won’t bother typing about Manchin’s voting history here. Have fun with the doom thread.
call_me_ishmael
Might be time for POTUS to reconsider that sweet job at the Appalachian regional commission that he gave to Manchin’s wife…
BruceFromOhio
No, Manny, they don’t, and trying to convince them otherwise is an utter waste.
NotMax
Up to now Manchin is the other aisle’s Collins. Furrow the brow, mouth ponderous concerns, when it comes down to brass tacks vote with the party unless there’s the wiggle room an anticipated clear majority without his vote vote affords.
germy
Sure Lurkalot
I would like someone to ask Manchin and Sinema what legislation, besides tax cuts for billionaires or Federal outlawing of abortion, would get 60 votes.
WereBear
To me, Manchin is clearly negotiating. He will grudgingly allow himself to be persuaded in ways that let him sell something as a win for WV, one stupid step at a time. Which is the way his voters “think.”
He has some way of splitting the difference so he can be a purple critter from a red state. Likely, he makes noises until he sees an opening, and then moves there and makes more noises.
I also do not think the Biden Administration is standing around shrugging. They have leverage. But not the kind for display. The “Come to Jesus” kind that gets brought up in private, secret, meetings.
zhena gogolia
@Omnes Omnibus:
Cheer up, maybe there’ll be a Sinema thread later on!
BruceFromOhio
My grandfather: I lived through the Great Depression and World War 2. We thought Russia would destroy us all.
My father: I lived to see computers invented, long distance phone service, and get deferred from Vietnam so I could help build better fighter jets for defense contractors.
Me: I lived to see computers shrink to fit on our desks, humans walk on the moon, and microwaves cook our dinner.
My children: We lived to see the KKK take over state legislatures and take away voting rights, and read about how The Amy Poehler Look-Alike Stripper Who Squirted Vaginal Fluid At Cops Is Fake on our iPhones.
Betty Cracker
@Omnes Omnibus: I understand the point about his voting record, and I believed they’d find some sort of solution, like a filibuster carve-out for voter rights, until I read this piece by Manchin today. As I said in the OP, maybe I’m misreading it. But I don’t think so.
gene108
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
The political landscape for 2022 House races does not matter much. We flipped a bunch of R+ districts, in 2018. Those mostly reverted back to the mean, in 2020.
We just have to hope the current incumbents still standing from 2018 races that flipped seats have done enough for their districts that they are favored to win.
@cleek:
My opinion as well.
He’s hiding behind the filibuster to avoid having to get things done.
Another Scott
Yeah, those two circumstances were exactly the same. Moscow Mitch and the Teabaggers sitting on Obama’s nominees for months/years is exactly the same as Moscow Mitch ramming reactionary justices onto the SCOTUS.
Thanks for clearing that up for us Joey.
Grrr…
I understand that he has to thread the needle, and part of him being able to stay in office in WV is him punching down and punching Democrats, but this really is tiresome. He gets a vote, but he’s not king of the Senate. Chuck and Uncle Joe need to work around him when it’s appropriate. More D Senators are indeed needed and that may indeed delay progress by 2-4 years.
Incremental progress is frustrating, but it’s the only way forward.
Cheers,
Scott.
Leto
@Omnes Omnibus: that would be a 50.4% voting record with Trumpov. Fuck. Him.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@call_me_ishmael: why is it a “sweet job”? and what effect do you think Biden taking it away, or threatening to, would have?
I think Manchin is dumb, arrogant, stubborn and delusional, but if there is a path to persuading him to eventually modify his stance, it’s going to be his fellow old-school Democrat (and, I think, fellow Catholic, and I wouldn’t discount that) Joe Biden* sweet-talking him, not threatening to embarrass his wife with firing her from what I suspect is a rather minor appointment.
*or Angus King, or Amy Klobuchar, or Tim Kaine… I don’t know who his Senate friends are. Maybe Manchin has enough historical and cultural awareness to be persuaded by The Reverend Senator Warnock… I have no idea. But these LBJ fantasies about burning his barn are especially irrelevant with the only Democrat who could win West Virginia for the foreseeable future. I don’t think Manchin will switch parties, but he might announce early that he’s going to enjoy his grandchildren and his (IIRC) $7 to 10 million.
NotMax
@gene108
In every sense of the term.
;)
dp
I agree with you Betty. This is all so depressing.
gene108
@Sure Lurkalot:
Huh????????
No Democrat voted for the 2017 tax cut.
I can’t picture 10 Democrats agreeing to go with Republicans to outlaw abortion.
hw3
OK, what’s the over-under that this is Manchin signaling a party flip? Looking for some largess from Moscow Mitch maybe?
AnotherBruce
@mmolleur: Why do you think that the Democrats would lose the senate in 22? As far as I know, the GQP has a significant number of seats to defend. Some of these seats are open ones. 20 seats to Republican to 14 seats Democrats to defend.
Hildebrand
I don’t care what game Manchin thinks he is playing – I am sick and tired of his posturing, his evident lack of compassion for people outside of his own bloody state, and a seeming imperviousness to understanding that the Republicans will simply NEVER vote for a bill sponsored by Democrats that could possibly help actual people.
His tantrum about the filibuster is one thing – but crapping on reconciliation, the only thing that allowed the Senate to pass the Covid relief bill, is just spectacular knavery. Maybe someone else can sort out his 11 dimensional chess nonsense, but I am sick to death of trying to figure out his tactics or strategy – because his dithering and bipartisan sanctimony, regardless of its hoped for end, is going to screw people, a lot of people. Which, I don’t think Manchin cares about in the slightest. If he wants to prove he has some compassion, well, now would be the time to start doing so.
JMG
Manchin is a drama queen. He loves attention, or he wouldn’t have written that piece. All it does is make sure he’ll get A LOT of attention from the media and at least 48 other Democratic Senators. He might not like that last brand.
His stance is also dumb politics from the point of self-interest. He’s up again in ’24, when Biden heads the ticket. Campaigning on “here’s all the stuff Biden did that I watered down or stopped” isn’t going to win him as many votes as it loses from either Republicans or Democrats in West Virginia. The Republicans will say “why didn’t you stop everything?” and the Democrats will say “why did you stop anything?”
NotMax
@Jim, Foolish Literalist
Just for the record, Manchin and Biden never served as senators at the same time. No build up of the much touted (and in recent times even more flouted) senatorial collegiality. Biden may have greater success twisting arms second hand – that is, of others in that body who do have a history with Manchin.
Eolirin
I feel like Manchin is leaving himself an out though, because he’s calling on the republican to vote on things, and they’re not going to no matter how much the democrats attempt outreach, even on things they agree with, so at some point he’s going to have to come to terms with that.
He wants 60 votes on S. 1 and thinks there should be support for that. As much as there’s a defense of the filibuster there there’s also a demand to his republican colleagues to stop being obstructionist assholes. When they fail to do that, will he be willing to do what needs to be done so that the senate isn’t paralyzed on vital legislation?
I think that’s more of an open question than his position is implying because he’s making demands of both sides, and presenting voting rights legislation as important to pass. Since there’s no way we’re getting to 60 like he wants he’s going to be put in the middle of this fight in a way that’s going to force him to come down on one side in a public and direct way, instead of trying to thread through the middle of this issue like he has been, and he’s either going to have to say that voting rights are important enough to get a hearing rather than being blocked by the minority or he’s going to end up having to take direct personal responsibility for killing his party’s chance of holding power and possibly democracy itself. I’m not sure that he won’t break and reverse his position, saying he was forced into it by the disappointing behavior of his republican colleagues. It depends on how delusional he actually is versus how much this is posturing.
His comments on using reconciliation on the other hand are I think fairly straightforward and also don’t say anything. Reconciliation can’t replace the standard order for the senate, and won’t, even if the democrats use it to the maximum amount they can to push big spending bills. Too much stuff can’t be advanced that way. It doesn’t seem like he’s unwilling to allow the infrastructure bill to go through as long as he gets to make some minor changes to things like tax rates. So even with using reconciliation maximally, there’s no actual conflict with what he’s saying. It’s just to sound more bipartisan without having to actually give anything up. But it’s also kind of like the above, in being just as much of an ultimatum to the republicans. Don’t make reconciliation the only way we can pass legislation is the flip side of those comments.
Sure Lurkalot
@gene108: my bad wording and thanks for pointing it out. I should’ve said legislation that would garner any Republican votes.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@NotMax: no, but he was in DC for most of the time Biden was Veep, and Governor before that. Manchin has said he wants his “friend Joe” to be a successful President, and to some extent I take him at his word. “Friend”, of course, being a word with different meanings to different people, especially in politics
ETA: I have no idea what their personal relationship is, or how many times they’ve talked since the election or inauguration, but I believe Biden is a great practitioner of telephone diplomacy.
dnfree
This is for the duck lovers here. If you don’t recognize the name Jerry Coyne, he’s the author of the acclaimed “Why Evolution Is True”.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/mary-schmich/ct-met-schmich-honey-the-duck-returns-20210326-mbvjek3d3bgqfkzglt7akgsqla-story.html
Cheryl Rofer
I tend to agree with @WereBear.
This is a negotiation. We are unaccustomed to negotiations after the last four years. TFG did shakedowns, had no concept of negotiating. He also did it all in public.
Biden was in the Senate a long time and knows Manchin personally. Not clear how close they are. You can bet that conversations are going on that we don’t see. With Sinema too, although she’s newer to the Senate and doesn’t have that history.
I’m thinking right now about the Iran talks. The US staked out a position that wasn’t going to happen, and so did Iran. Commentators freaked out that the US was going to lose the opportunity to return to the JCPOA, but now the US and Iran are back in talks, and the US is beginning to offer up in public some of what those commentators wanted it to offer from the beginning.
That’s another place where we don’t know what is happening in private. The 2015 Iran talks happened because of a meeting of Jake Sullivan, now Biden’s National Security Advisor, with the Iranians that we didn’t learn about until two years after it happened.
We may never know the full extent of discussions with Manchin. And that’s okay as long as he votes with the Democrats, which, as has been noted, he does consistently.
I find his professed faith in bipartisanship charming. It may be his purple way of chiding Republicans. It also bugs me, but let’s see how this works out.
Schumer is careful about calling votes until he knows we will win.
RobertDSC-Mac Mini
Time to clamp down on his daughter for medical price gouging.
NotMax
@hw3
Magic 8-ball sez: “Zero.” Right now he’s in a unique position of intramural power. And, whatever one may think of him, fully cognizant of the unfettered obstructionism an R majority would permit.
Hoodie
It’s not unreasonable for Manchin to believe that he will lose in 2024 if he fully signs on to the Dem agenda. However, he probably will lose in 2024 no matter what he does. He may think this phony bipartisanship stuff will give him a chance to survive like a Collins or Murkowski. I don’t think it will work, but you have to remember these guys value their Senate seats more than anything else, such as doing the right thing irrespective of whether you win or lose.
Betty Cracker
@Eolirin: I see what you’re saying, and maybe you’re right. Sure hope so!
Hildebrand
@Cheryl Rofer: I’d like to think you are right – but it sure feels like Manchin is just holding the Democrats hostage to whatever it is that he wants. Which means he is negotiating with the wrong people – it’s the intractable Republicans that are the problem, they are the ones who have blown up Senate norms and decorum, and who won’t give one inch toward getting things done.
But, swell, we get to watch him do his best Hamlet as he tries to accomplish whatever it is that he thinks he is accomplishing.
Ultimately, I am just sick and tired of his games – which always seem to end with people suffering just so that he can preserve his identity as the whatever of the Senate.
Cameron
Hmmm. Maybe a carrot (“HHS announces it is agreeable to a 20% price hike for epipens”) or stick (“DOE and DOI announce project to build repository for all of the nation’s nuclear waste in WV”) would work, but first I’d like to ask Senator Joe which Republicans he can bring to the table. IIRC, the President did invite a bunch of them to present alternate plans and was able to keep from LOL at what they came up with…which they wouldn’t have voted for anyway.
Eolirin
@Betty Cracker: I think we also just have to trust that Schumer and Biden and the rest of the leadership know what they’re doing and will get what needs to get done done.
Cameron
@Cheryl Rofer: It doesn’t appear like the Israelis are very eager for us to re-enter the JCPOA. Gotta keep the pot boiling.
https://news.yahoo.com/israel-risks-tensions-biden-striking-144241806.html
mmolleur
@AnotherBruce: We thought we’d have a Senate majority of of at least 53 or 54 after 2020. The results were disappointing. In the Senate, Greenfield and Gideon lost narrow, winnable races. Cunnigham blew another and the House was a squeaker. Democrats have been saying for years, “When we vote, we win,” but GOP turnout was very high, too. Lots of voters went for Biden at the top but GOP down ballot–for “balance.” I think we’re going to have the same struggle in ’22: High GOP turnout–they always show up for midterms, plus the same mentality of centrists looking for “balance.” Warnock will be running again in ’22 in GA under its new rules; we could lose the Senate then without an immense amount of effort.
NotMax
@Eolirin
This, to the nth power.
And if they don’t achieve complete success 100% of the time, that’s acceptable risk too.
narya
@dnfree: Mary is also my favorite yoga teacher (back when I was a regular practitioner).
WaterGirl
Manchin is stuck in the past.
White men who think they alone can “save” democracy. Hubris will be the death of us.
See Comey, James.
Ksmiami
@Hildebrand: fuck him. He’s an egomaniac piece of shit
Hildebrand
@Eolirin: Oh, I trust Schumer and Biden. I just don’t trust Manchin.
@WaterGirl: Exactly. Manchin’s ego and privilege is getting in the way of constructive governance. His ‘ideals’ are more important than people.
Adam Lang
Manchin wants anything more liberal than he is (1980s middle-of-the-road Republican) to fail but he doesn’t want to be seen to kill it. The filibuster is his solution.
Humdog
@mmolleur: GOP turnout in 2020 was high, for TFG tho. Their turnout was not great in 2018 AND Dems have picked up some of the always voting suburbanites the Rs used to count on for turnout. Evangelicals will keep showing up for them but there are fewer and fewer of them as the years pass. Will the Q types show?
2022 will be very interesting.
NotMax
@WaterGirl
“Man is a strange animal; he doesn’t like to read the handwriting on the wall until his back is up against it.”
– Adlai Stevenson
.
Berto
Schumer to Manchin:”Okay, Joe. We’ll give you until Memorial Day to get all the Republican buy-in you can.We’ll be cheering for your success over here.Looking forward to hearing back from you on how many “bi-partisans” you bagged in 7 weeks.
Bill Arnold
So here’s his core, bold mine:
One possibility is that he would be open to strengthening the filibuster; bringing back the talking filibuster, with a stronger 67 (2/3) vote threshhold (back to 1975 and earlier). Biden has mentioned this as well. The Senate rules (Rule 22) require 67 votes for such a change.
Senators would be able to explain at length to the American people why the American people are wrong to approve of legislation that the minority opposes.
If the Republicans objected to such a strengthening, Joe would have political room to reluctantly revisit his strongly held opinion.
That (or similar) is the only out I see between his lines. It’s thin, but not ruled out by the text.
Cheryl Rofer
@Cameron: A lot of Israel’s military and intelligence establishment is in favor of the JCPOA. It’s Netanyahu’s faction that is against it.
hw3
@NotMax:
I will take that bet.
Joe’s always been on the far right of anything Democratic, even when WV was more purple than deep blood-drenched red and he was in the statehouse.
Sure he likes the attention and potential negotiating platform, but he’s absolutely looking for relevance in a post redistricting WV political landscape. And that relevance may mean he jumps on the white-nationalist train for ’24.
NotMax
@Cheryl Rofer
Netanyahu has been verbally painting the equivalent of Firesign Theater’s Antelope Freeway signs re: Iran’s nuclear capabilities for what, 30 years now?
Eolirin
@mmolleur: If negotiations are ultimately successful and the voting rights bill passes there’s a decent chance the DC statehood bill also passes. That’ll give us a solid lock on the senate. The house will be more complicated and hard to predict, but the voting rights bill would do a lot to make the house more winnable.
2022 is a bad cycle for the Republicans in the senate to begin with. There are very few seats that are at risk for democrats and a number that are potential pick ups. If we’re in a robust pandemic and economic recovery we should do pretty well, lots of indications that Biden just isn’t scary enough (wonder why ?) to really motivate the right and the attacks on voting rights will probably help us with turn out too. We just need to get those bills through and avoid any serious crisis in mid 2022 and we could do very well.
NotMax
@hw3
One could plop several Grand Canyons into the gaping chasm between far right Democratic and far left Republican policies and stances.
Baud
@hw3:
Huh? Machin is a Senator. His district is the state. Are there plans to create a West West Virginia that I don’t know about?
JMG
Well, if all else fails, we can always start a “Draft Cole” movement in WV. This country hasn’t had a proper Front Porch campaign for far too long.
MomSense
Manchin is either negotiating or he wants an out without having to vote no.
Leto
@MomSense: one of the best ways he could negotiate is to shut the fuck up, but mediocre white men never learn that lesson.
Bill Arnold
@NotMax:
It’s insane. Iran knows it would not be better off nuclear armed, excepting reduced probability of US-driven regime change, and the downside of a regional nuclear arms race with KSA included is hugely dangerous for all including Israel; short missile flight times. (Short breakout time is another story, but they’d willingly negotiate that away in return for significantly more normal international relations, perhaps simultaneously building up deep-underground facilities.)
Dorothy A. Winsor
The idea of losing the Senate scares the crap out of me. Supreme Court anyone?
gene108
@AnotherBruce:
PTSD from 2010, 2014, 2016, and to a lesser extent underperforming in Congressional and state races in 2020.
piratedan
well if Senator Joe believes in Bipartisanship that badly, then let him whip the votes. If he fails to find ten reasonable GOP senators who believe in the country more than their party, then Huzzah!
What I suspect will happen is that Joe will find 10 GOP people who are willing to play ball, if they whittle away some of this here, and then some of that there and leaving in effect a bill that does essentially nothing and will attempt to pass that off as some sort of Compromise.
I then suspect that Schumer will sit down and tell Joe that he essentially got nothing but 7 weeks of lost time in listening to and chasing this mythical beast and ask him if he’s happy with his trophy.
Now, can we afford 7 weeks while JM goes in search, I’m plainly unsure.. people die, new crisis may develop, so in short I just don’t know. It’s entirely plausible that JM still wants to believe that the GOP isn’t completely irredeemable, naturally on this board, since we only see these interpersonal relationships from afar, we are skeptical.
Edmund Dantes
Love how people just assume we have time.
Go look up some actuary tables and start comparing against states with GOP governors and older Dem senators.
We are a heartbeat away from losing the senate majority everyday.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@mmolleur:
Marsha Blackburn
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Edmund Dantes: Yup.
So are they. Granted the hearts in question are a bit younger, but…
If Mitch McConnell goes to his reward tomorrow, it’s not like anybody’s gonna be standing around the box saying “but he was so young…”
J R in WV
Gail Manchin (Senator Joe’s wife) was nominated to be co-chair of the Appalachian Regional Commission, a federal agency founded in the long ago to fight the area’s persistent poverty and lack of opportunity. The average salary (2018) of the employees of the ARC is $128,295… I would guess the co-chair makes more than that annually. The ARC’s annual budget is over $150,000,000 — monies Gail gets to direct the spending of to at least some degree.
I would call that a VERY SWEET political plum job, with great opportunities for a sly person to make bank from without stepping into the yellow-jacket nest. Remember this family has been in politics for a very long time, and have a lot of experience monetizing their political work…
Senator Joe Manchin’s net worth is in the ballpark of $8,000,000. Gail’s is not included in that total as she isn’t a Senator with financial reporting requirements. I dunno if an ARC co-chair is required to file financial reports.
I have met Joe Manchin in the long ago… he is not as crooked as Arch A Moore Jr was (WV-R Senator Shelly Moore Capito’s father, who went to federal prison for soliciting a bribe while being recorded) but that isn’t saying much. Manchin appears to be able to monetize his political jobs without recourse to flagrently illegal activities, which Arch Moore didn’t bother to even attempt.
I have no clue what Manchin is trying to do with regard to Democratic party politics, the filibuster, voting rights, etc. I believe Manchin doesn’t give a rat’s ass for equal rights for people of color, the LGBTQ family, or even the people of West Virginia.
I suspect Manchin’s whole point in life is to make $bank$ for the Manchin family, and that he thinks there is a way to profit from his current behavior, without going to jail.
I don’t know if he still keeps his
yachthouseboat in the DC Yacht basin… looks like that’s where he lives, actually, on the boat. I bet there another hide-away for when the weather sucks. “Chuck Schumer “thinks it’s his boat,” Manchin told Time.” in the linked article. Article adds, very popular with all the Senators, pizza, merlot and beer. Sounds like Uncle Joe to me… pizza delivered in.ET
Deluded older white men are just as much of an impediment to progress and change as older white men whose ill intentions are nakedly on display.
Keith
I believe it is time for the Press to ask Manchin’s office whether or not he considers one or other of the various touted options to make the filibuster require effort, or be less obstructionist because of armchair anarchists in the GQP literally phoning in their filibuster constitute making the filibuster weaker.
For instance: Would returning to the longer-held tradition of a talking filibuster make the filibuster weaker?
NotMax
@Jim, Foolish Literalist
Joni Ernst a close runner-up?
piratedan
@NotMax: was gonna suggest the good Senator from Mississippi
sdhays
@Cheryl Rofer: I wonder what losing this fight (i.e. the US re-entering the JCPOA) would do to Netanyahu’s prospects for forming a new government. Fear-driven rallying behind him or further weakening him because of a sense that he will further damage relations with the US? Or nothing at all?
Betty Cracker
@piratedan: Yep, that one’s dumber than a bag of hammers
ETA: D’oh — I forgot about Tuberville! Definitely the dumbest!
Leto
@piratedan:
That’s what he did after Sandyhook. He and his BFF Pat Toomey said, “Give it to us, we can get this done.” They whittled it down to basically nothing and the shit still failed due to Republicans. But he got to keep his “bipartisan” creds while doing literally nothing, so I guess we get to keep praising him for that.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@NotMax: @piratedan: a photo finish, but I still gotta give the Stupid Gold to Blackburn. She has more of the brash confidence of the truly marble-headed.
I would like to see Cindy Hyde-Smith get famous enough that Lorne Michaels has to give Amy Sedaris a regular paycheck.
NotMax
@piratedan
Good call, that. Little Miss Confederacy is, as the saying goes, a piece o’ work.
James E Powell
@Omnes Omnibus:
It’s worse than just the tiresome Manchin bashing & doom talking. By focusing on Manchin & Sinema & filibuster, we are not focusing on the real issues:
Republicans are opposing popular programs!!! Republicans want Biden to fail and they don’t care who gets hurt in the process!!! Republicans want everyone to be miserable because they think it will put them back in power!!!
That’s what we should all be screaming about. Shout it from the rooftops. Make it the center of your social media. Mention it every day to your right-wing relatives. Every one of us who is white and over 60 needs to go our local diner and look for the reporters. Let them know what we are thinking!
I think that’s where President Biden would prefer the focus to be. The Rs aren’t going to change their ways because they are finally convinced good policies make sense. They will only be convinced by tons of calls & mail from their constituents who are demanding to know why they are opposing stuff their voters want.
Cameron
@James E Powell: I don’t see them changing even then. Republican Party must be disassembled and Republican candidates defeated. (No, I don’t feel like indulging in the violence fantasies, thanks.)
James E Powell
@Cameron:
You’re probably right. No, you’re certainly right.
That said, we have to make their refusal to change the reason that we win. Forcing Republicans to defend their senseless opposition – rather than bitching about Manchin & the filibuster – is the only way we win in 2022.
New Deal democrat
The Senate can pass voting rights legislation via overcoming a talking filibuster.
And we don’t need Manchin in order to make it necessary for filibustering Senators to have to keep talking. All we need is VP Harris.
Here’s how it works:
V.P. Harris: “The Senate will now consider SB1, the Voting Rights Act.”
[Motion for cloture fails]
V.P. Harris: “The Senate will now continue to consider SB1, the Voting Rights Act.”
[repeat without adjourning until cloture motion passes]
Hildebrand
@James E Powell: Well, we are doing that – but we are also having to deal with Manchin because he won’t shut up. His op-ed in the Post made certain the focus was on him. Did he spend any time in that editorial pointing at the Republicans and stating with great clarity that their obstruction is what has caused all of this? Well, we got one soft peddled sentence vaguely pointing out that Republicans say ‘no’ too often. The rest is a blowtorch against comity that is the fault of ‘both sides’ – especially the mechanisms by which Democrats will get anything accomplished.
We can walk and chew gum – this blog is more than capable of thrashing the Republicans for their intransigence, but we also need to hold those Democrats to account for their willingness to sacrifice far too many people on the altar of their cherished Senate norms.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@James E Powell:
I’m not so sure I agree. The AK legislature had to have received a lot of heat for their bill banning treatment to trans kids, yet that did not stop them in the slightest. Same as in 2017 with the attempt to repeal the ACA. The vast majority of Republican pols voted to end it. They received tons of calls to their offices. Some responded by unplugging their phones. In the end it was only McCain who stopped it
Ruckus
JM is trying to have and retain power as someone who has never really had a lot of it. We have a very divided country and government right now, one side wanting a democracy and the other wanting something like a monarchy, that tells them what to do, say, think, believe, because they don’t want to spend the effort, and they think, such as that is, that if the government gets out of hand, they will overthrow it with their guns. I think Joe believes that the filibuster will stop that and bring everyone together. And I don’t see it at all.
cain
@Cheryl Rofer:
I think they should definitely angle something for WV not only to make Manchin look good but it is the right thing to do to improve the economy and maybe show that Dems are a good choice to vote for instead of the GOP. I’m hopeful.
catclub
@gene108:
ok, but why?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): AK is Alaska, I think you mean AR for Arkansas.
James E Powell
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Was that Alaska or Arkansas?
I do not think that Republican officials got negative calls & mail from their voters.
JML
Manchin is right in that making changes around voting rights and defining voter protections is best done on a bi-partisan basis. you know, in a perfect world. or a vacuum. or something. It’s going to be better to have broad support on the vote, in that it will help reduce the number of jackholes who immediately start undermining it in the states.
but that’s not the world we live in.
We’re still operating in Moscow Mitch’s world, where a totally corrupted GOP Congress (House & Senate) won’t legislate in good faith, cannot be trusted to negotiate on anything, and will refuse to vote for things they themselves have supported, entirely because they want to tear down a democratic administration. we’ve seen this playbook before, and so has Joe manchin. So he needs to stop acting the fool here.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
@James E Powell:
Correct, I meant AR. Perhaps granted on AR, but the Congressional GOP also faced immense pressure on ACA repeal and the vast majority still voted to end it. I don’t think our calls or letters resonated with them much. I’m not sure how what you propose would work, unless you mean in purple states/districts, I’m guessing? You certainly won’t convince R voters
tarragon
@piratedan:
I don’t think anyone believes that
AbrahamJoe will be able to find 10 righteous men inSodomthe GOPpatrick II
@lowtechcyclist:
I don’t think the Republicans will ever run out of breath on voting rights. They will filibuster as long as it takes and stop other Democratic priorities at the same time. It’s all or nothing for them. And for us, actually. Either get rid of the filibuster for the voting rights bill or go home. Literally.
James E Powell
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
The Ohio senate race will be an important test of whether Republican obstruction will help them against Biden like it helped them against Obama.
The biggest factor is that Biden is white. The second biggest and potentially decisive factor is that Biden is clearly working hard to get things done for the benefit of the whole country. Republicans have nothing to offer in response other than culture war.
Hildebrand
@tarragon: There isn’t even one. Not one.
Which is why Manchin’s performative nonsense is so grating. He knows none of these people are going to grow a governing conscience.
But still, he puts on the show and says all the right buzzwords to get the Broderites all a quiver, which forces normal folks to try to discern the logic and strategery behind what he says. Of course, the reason he offers to the masses for such inane behavior is that he is the ‘last honest, bipartisan Senator’.
In reality, I’m guessing he just doesn’t give a crap about other peoples’ suffering – and this is all about the power and influence he accrues.
Which doesn’t exactly make him rare, but it also doesn’t exactly make him worth fighting so hard to understand, or protect.
artem1s
I don’t know Manchin well enough to comment on this article. It doesn’t make any sense to me that he’s protecting the minority voices in the Senate and doing absolutely nothing for his constituents with that power. I do get the reasoning that changing Senate rules isn’t going to fix the underlying problem of how Congress is (not) functioning.
If I had my druthers the clearest way to resolve the issue with voting rights would be to overturn John “Taney” Roberts’ ruling that caused this mess in the first place. Any new voting legislation that involves pressing states to change the way they manage elections is going to be subject to a conservative SCOTUS overturning it all over again. So I suppose the best course forward is to do what Dems are already doing with the COVID bill. Massive PR campaigns designed to show the electorate that the GQP just isn’t on their side. Even in 2020 R-voters started to notice that the new rules were making it harder for everyone to vote, not just Blacks. Manchin’s position gives the Dems time to make their case and a talking filibuster would certainly help their case. But I don’t get the sense he’s playing any kind of 11 dimensional chess here. I just have to hope that Biden’s team has a lot of different strategies for overcoming Moscow Mitch’s obstructionist status quo and they have a plan if Manchin and Sinema decide to be assholes about the filibuster.
evodevo
@dnfree: Yep..there are several unspoken evolutionary threads running through this article, too…humans have survived as a species precisely because we care about others, and not necessarily kin…the genetic trait of empathy is at the heart of that. Also, that is probably why we have domesticated so many animal species…i.e., the kids adopt the wolf puppies/orphaned sheep/goats, calves, horses, chickens, etc. etc. , and voila, humans become herders/dog owners… On the other hand, humans have a natural antithesis to outsiders, thus xenophobia… two sides to the same coin, that have to be taken into consideration when dealing with human behavior…
Bill Arnold
@dnfree:
Jerry Coyne might not have taught Mary Schmich about [the evolution of] duck genitalia.
Michael Cain
My big fear is that Manchin thinks he’s really trying to get the people of WV what they want, and that what they want is the coal mines back, the coal-fired power generation back, and the coal-fueled iron and steel works along the Ohio River back. And he’s sending a message that if WV doesn’t get what it wants, no one else does either.
mostly a lurker
(I’m not sure if this is allowed [still new to commenting], but it seems apropos to re-post my comment, slightly edited, from Betty Cracker’s PTSD piece yesterday)
I’m still traumatized by trumpism, and don’t think it’s post-TSD, it’s
Still-in-the-Midst-TSD (is there a word for that?). We’re still in the grip of crazy people who have every intention of bringing the country to ruin. I’d say we’re more like 1/2 way through the horror movie than nearing its end. It’s great having the Dems doing good stuff, but that could easily be for only 2 more years (and even then it’s constrained by the Manchin/ Sinema refusal to recognize there’s no there in seeking bipartisanship, since now only one party is [small d] democratic). We won’t know how many more scares are headed our way until the 2022 midterms, and what that presages for 2024. My trauma/ fear mainly manifests in how I’ve become even more blogs-dependent (compulsively reading my 7-8 regulars multiple times a day) and waiting for the shoe to drop (and it seems Manchin has just dropped it). I’m just constitutionally more of a Cassandra than a Pollyanna (and this certainly bears out that that perspective is more likely to coincide with reality).
rikyrah
@Leto:
Not when it comes to Voting Rights..uh huh. He will get no cookies for bullshyt bipartisanship.?
WaterGirl
@mostly a lurker: You are fine!
I saw your comment on the other thread but I was too late to comment. Lurk less, comment more!
Betsy
@mostly a lurker: exactly
i could have written every sentence in your comment, except that I would not have been able to express it so well