Federal health officials on Tuesday called for a pause in the use of the Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine, saying they are reviewing reports of six U.S. cases of a rare and severe type of blood clot in people after receiving the vaccine.
All six cases occurred among women between the ages of 18 and 48, and symptoms occurred six to 13 days after vaccination, according to a statement issued by the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
I’m going to refrain from amateur epidemiology and virology. I’ll just note that, in the Rochester area, there’s a surplus of Moderna and Pfizer appointments at the time. So the notion that this will delay vaccinations, at least here, doesn’t seem to have much validity.
Cheryl Rofer
Ugh. Cue another round of amateur epidemiology, virology, and health communication. I have further thoughts on this, but for now I’ll let Rebecca Traister speak for me.
Ohio Mom
Afraid this will rile up the anti-vaxxers even more. They’ll claim it is only a matter of time until the other two vaccines are found to be dangerous. And too many low-info people will believe them.
Sigh. We are all done with our Pfizers in Ohio Family but I am not convinced things will ever be back to the previous normal.
MattF
Derek Lowe, who is not an amateur, has an explainer on the Oxford/AZ blood clotting events, which appear to be the same as the J&J events.
Cheryl Rofer
Suzanne
The J&J was going to be used for homeless people and others for whom it was difficult to get to a vaccination site (twice). It’s a valid concern.
Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix
@Cheryl Rofer: Man, my decision to unfollow certified brain genius Nate looks better and better every day.
RandomMonster
And with that I’m off for round 2 of Pfizer.
Baud
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix:
Yeah, that tweet was unhinged.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
I still want my J&J.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Nate is a “numbers guy” who doesn’t know what Six Sigma is. He’s a numbers guy, but not numbers that big…
ETA… or variability that low.
JMS
It will be a huge issue if hopefully temporary in SE Pa which has been struggling with way more demand than supply this whole time and still is. The county and CVS just opened up a large number of appointment slots this week with, you guessed it, J&J. My husband is newly eligible so I had him get an appt at CVS for Friday. Right after confirming the appointment he saw this news story. He doesn’t fit the profile of affected people, so I wouldn’t be concerned if he still got it, but who knows if he will or when the next opportunity might be.
Eolirin
Aren’t they currently facing supply issues due to that manufacturing mix up anyway? A brief pause might let them build up more supply, as I doubt they’re going to stop making the stuff while they’re waiting for the blood clotting cases to be investigated.
Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix
@Suzanne: To my knowledge we didn’t have any sites using J&J here — the closest was Syracuse. It’s weird how different parts of the country have different distributions of vaccine.
Chief Oshkosh
I took Silver’s comment to mean that it’s a disaster that people will panic about a one-in-a-million event (literally) and that that innumeracy will get people killed. But maybe I’m giving him too much credit.
Argiope
100% speculation but 1 in 1,000,000 seems somewhat similar to background risk of clotting (about 5 in 10,000 person-years) due to combined birth control methods containing estrogen, and all 6 of these cases were in women of childbearing age. I will await more data before deciding it’s the vaccine, or the vaccine in isolation. Could well be a confounder.
Amir Khalid
Was Nate Silver always this hysterical?
Butch
I’ve never really understood the Nate Silver fanclub, but is “what a disaster” meant to be sarcasm? If you’re familiar with U.S. EPA’s standards for “acceptable risk” and the “risk range” (they take a lot of explanation – I’m not going to try), the numbers he cites meet those standards comfortably.
MattF
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix: I got the J&J shot because that’s what they were shooting at my local CVS.
Baud
@Amir Khalid:
He’s never been funny.
Baud
@Argiope:
I feel like Confounder should be name of a comic book supervillain.
Suzanne
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix: PA has been reserving the J&J for teachers, basically rushing to get them vaccinated before return to school. Other places have been reserving them, as I noted, for populations that will be difficult to reach. It’s an essential part of the vaccine effort.
Nate Silver is being really flippant about the risks to other people’s lives, but he may not be wrong. Pausing its use may be worse, on the whole.
Howev, I have long thought that we favored priority more than speed with this effort. In the past few weeks, that’s abated as supply ramped up, thank goodness.
MattF
Ack. Hit ‘clear comment’ by mistake. My comment was that Silver is trolling, looking for clicks.
Suzanne
@Chief Oshkosh:
This was also my interpretation.
Idly wondering if there is an anticoagulant that could be prescribed.
Argiope
@Baud: Seconded. An anti-hero for the postmodern age. Methods: misdirection and disinformation.
Quiltingfool
I’m supposed to get the J&J shot today. Guess I’ll call the pharmacy to see what’s going on. Dang it. I was so happy to FINALLY get vaccinated and now this. Mind you, I’m not concerned, I’d get the shot, but my Dad called me this morning in a panic about it; he worries.
Now I get to do more searches for vaccination sites. Oh joy.
Matt McIrvin
My wife got the J&J last week and I’d been hoping for it to drive a big surge in vaccination numbers. My mother-in-law likes it because it’s so much easier to deal with at the vaccination sites. If this is a roadblock to that, that’s unfortunate.
Silver is just comparing probability numbers and announcing that everyone is an idiot for not interpreting them like his big brain does. At first order, he’s obviously correct that the collective risk from the clots is far smaller than the collective risk from withholding J&J vaccine. But I don’t think he understands the messaging/public confidence problem that the authorities are dealing with. Hesitancy about the vaccine itself is one thing, but if the public loses trust in you, you can’t tell them anything any more.
JMS
@Suzanne:
That was true, but this week the collar counties around Philadelphia got a large shipment of J&J for general use. Montgomery county alone got 20k doses when it had previously poked along at 5k of Pfizer per week. The county just opened 3 new locations to give it out. CVS must have also partaken in the bounty because they suddenly had nearby appointments when they hadn’t had any for months. It is a big deal here—not just for edge cases.
mapaghimagsik
@Cheryl Rofer: For some reason, this round of bad math and bad faith bugs me more than usual — maybe because otherwise smart people who I read are clearly demonstrating that they learned nothing from the past four years.
Soprano2
Based on the poor reporting I heard this morning about vaccinated people getting COVID, where they didn’t put the numbers into any kind of context at all, I’m not that hopeful about the reporting about this being good. Plus, Fox News is going to have a field day with it, and will probably have their anti-vaxx guy on pronto to say “See, this is why you shouldn’t get vaccinated”. It’s unfortunate this happened for sure, and although I understand the pause I’m not sure the average person will understand anything other than “I heard the J&J vaccine causes blood clots”. *sigh
rp
Nate is saying the pause and subsequent PR/messaging is a disaster because it will give the anti-vaxxers ammo. But that seems like a silly overreaction.
Matt McIrvin
@Butch: Silver is upset that the Biden administration is recommending a pause, since the clotting risk is so low.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
For NYers:
WaterGirl
@Matt McIrvin: If you’re explaining, you’re losing. That was a bad tweet from Nate, and it did more harm than good.
JMG
The FDA is acting in accordance with its core mission, making sure drugs and food are as safe for the public to consume as possible. The CDC’s core mission, right there in its title, is disease control. There would seem to be conflict there, but the CDC went along with the FDA decision, so I must assume it gamed out the scenario and decided letting the J&J vaccination use go on and indeed increase without addressing the blood clot risk would do harm to the overall vaccination effort.
I do not understand vaccination hesitancy, let alone resistance. Now that I am fully vaccinated (Pfizer) I am willing to maintain public health measures like masking until more of my fellow citizens get dosed, but there will come a time when those who are unvaccinated are that way by choice. That’s when I will abandon masking, etc. and I don’t believe I’ll be alone.
germy
@rp:
The anti-vaxxers are creative though. If we don’t give them ammo, they just make up some other stuff.
Antivaxxers frequently make the false claim that mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines “permanently alter your DNA”. These claims are really a concern about “impurifying” their “purity of essence”.
Cheryl Rofer
I did a quick thread on Twitter. Gotta head out now, will be back later.
germy
Meanwhile, old Rupert Murdoch was first in line for his jab. I assume his younger family members pushed themselves to the front of the line with him.
Bluegirlfromwyo
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix: That tweet was serious? I honestly thought that was snark. Very disappointed in Silver.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@germy: and their most skepticism-stoking on-air personalities are from what I understand broadcasting from remote studios in their country homes
Rand Paul, Ron Johnson, Rick Scott and one other chucklehead R Senator said they’re not getting the vaccine. I’d bet a large amount of money at least two of them are lying. I wouldn’t bet on any of the Paul family about anything, except that they’re gonna do or say something crazy.
Elizabelle
@Argiope: Yup. That is what hit me immediately: all clotting cases are in women of childbearing age (48 is still possible — ask my grandmother!) — and you could have a correlation with contraceptive use.
But less than 1 in 1 million occurrence, when you’re looking at a virus that can kill or cause longterm health damage? Distorted sense of smell and taste, and fatigue? No thank you.
It will be interesting if one correlation turns out to be obesity.
J&J was seeming like an excellent vaccine choice for truckers, and others who would have a hard time scheduling two doses. One and out of there. That was important, as a lot of truckers are rightwingers and vaccine-averse to begin with. Le sigh.
MattF
OT. AI isn’t all bad.
Butch
@Matt McIrvin: Thanks for clarifying. I wasn’t sure what he was trying to say.
dmsilev
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix: Nate “the fox knows a small amount about a lot of things” Silver should perhaps consider that sometimes deep knowledge of a particular area (the “hedgehogs” he likes to deride) can be useful.
Baud
Obviously, the solution is the ban contraceptives. #GOP
sdhays
According to Josh Marshall, the standard treatment for blood clots makes the situation worse when the cause is the vaccine, which is another thing the FDA needs to balance. They need to put out new guidance on detecting and treating blood clots caused by the vaccine.
The idea that you can plug the numbers into a fraction and have your “cost benefit analysis” is just insultingly stupid. I’ll trust that the FDA has a better idea that it knows what it’s doing than an online number-pundit.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Elizabelle:
or smoking
pika
This is bad for the public colleges and universities, though, which were just able to get their vaccination efforts off the ground before the end of the semester–I hope this is solved soon.
Ken
Obviously, obviously. However, let me tell you what they should be doing….
— Every self-anointed online pundit, influencer, or whatever they’re calling themselves nowadays.
dmsilev
And one other thing while I’m beating up on Silver: A month or so ago, he was shrieking that that the FDA should approve the J&J vaccine “immediately”, without taking the few weeks to review and assess the data. In light of this news, not the wisest of takes. No, this didn’t show up in the clinical trial data (unsurprising, given how rare it is), but the regulators absolutely positively have to check and do their due diligence.
Quiltingfool
@Quiltingfool: No J&J shot for me today – but I get the Moderna shot tomorrow! All good!
Matt McIrvin
@sdhays: Nate Silver wants everything to be a question of which of two numbers is bigger.
Soprano2
I’m also disappointed because my BIL wanted to get the J&J specifically because he only wanted to take one shot. Now, I’m afraid he’ll pass altogether because all he’ll hear is “those vaccines cause blood clots”.
Another Scott
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: Yup. As I posted downstairs somewhere, real distributions have long tails.
People need to get vaccinated as quickly as possible with whatever vaccine is available. These tips of the tail events need to be monitored by physicians, but the rest of us should ignore them.
Silver should be ashamed.
Cheers,
Scott.
KayInMD (formerly Kay (not the front-pager))
My son has an appointment at CVS on 4/22. I’m pretty sure it was for J&J. I guess that means I have to go back in & try to find him another appointment. Sigh. I was so looking forward to not worrying about him anymore.
Roger Moore
@Suzanne:
Also in cases where it’s important to get fully vaccinated ASAP. At the hospital where I work, they want to vaccinate patients before procedures like Chemo that tend to weaken the immune system, and they’d rather use a vaccination schedule that reaches full immunity in 2 weeks rather than 5-6.
Roger Moore
@Chief Oshkosh:
If two people have opposite interpretations of what his tweet means, he needs to edit it for clarity. It’s a different problem, but still a serious one.
Doc Sardonic
@Suzanne: Several are available, but it depends on the clotting mechanism that needs to be addressed. If it is just a general anticoagulant that will fit the bill Warfarin/Jantoven is cheap and readily available just takes a bit to ramp up and you have to watch your diet. If it involves just the platelets adhesion it would be Plavix and it ain’t cheap or if fast action is needed Lovenox or another low molecular weight heparin can be used but those are injectable and also expensive.
sdhays
@Roger Moore: Hopefully the pause will be short.
zhena gogolia
@Quiltingfool:
So happy for you!
L85NJGT
There is significant demand for J&J – one and done is attractive for those who aren’t vaccine adverse, but don’t see it as a critical event, and don’t want to book two appointments. Any impediment to that population getting vaccinated is a problem.
Old School
Nate Silver wants people to take the J&J vaccine. There seems to be some misunderstanding going on in this thread.
Spanky
The main problem with Silver’s tweet is that it’s totally unclear what he means.
He’s not really a good communicator, and gets deservedly slammed for it.
Doc Sardonic
@dmsilev: Silver needs to hedgehog his ass back to playing tabletop baseball with Sabremetrics and leave the important math to the people that know what they are doing.
Roger Moore
@Amir Khalid:
No, but he’s been in the “damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead” camp on vaccinations. He was very annoyed the FDA took a few weeks to look in detail at all the vaccine EUAs and also pushed to ignore the clinical trial data and increase the time between doses for two dose vaccines in order to get as many people their first doses as possible.
rikyrah
Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) Tweeted:
IMPORTANT: If you have an appointment TODAY at a State-run mass vaccination site for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, you will be offered the Pfizer vaccine instead. You do NOT need to cancel your appointment. https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1381959219474223109?s=20
sdhays
@Old School: He’s saying that the FDA can’t do a simple cost benefit analysis and made the decision to pause deployment of the J&J vaccine because they’re stupid, not because they have a lot of factors to weigh that don’t fit into a simple “1 in a million” calculation.
Old School
@Spanky:
I count 14 tweets on the topic from Silver this morning. It’s pretty clear what his view is from scrolling through his timeline.
Elizabelle
@germy: Excellent resource, germy. Always good to see some Dr. Strangelove clips, too.
Old School
@sdhays: That interpretation I agree with. He’s complaining about the FDA. He’s not saying people shouldn’t take a vaccine.
TaMara (HFG)
@Cheryl Rofer: I’m out of can’t evens in regards to this. The hysteria on the news this morning…without any context.
Fuck it. I barely made it through yesterday’s news onslaught. I am going offline for the rest of the week.
natem
@Spanky: It’s just a big-brained Nate take, basically “6/7000000 = near-infinity zero do you people even know how to math?”
Steeplejack (phone)
@Chief Oshkosh:
Same.
Betty Cracker
My 76-year-old dad is a wingnut Fox News watcher who agreed to get vaccinated but has been holding out for J&J because he doesn’t want to have to go more than once. That’s a dumb decision that we tried to talk him out of since he could have already been fully vaccinated if he’d agreed to two doses of Moderna or Pfizer.
Anyhoo, I am now steeling myself to call him and try to persuade the stubborn mule to get whatever vaccines are on offer immediately. I hope he doesn’t decide this means he shouldn’t get vaccinated at all, but that’s a real possibility. Le sigh.
karen marie
@Soprano2: Yesterday the checkout clerk at the grocery store said he won’t get the vaccine because “it’s experimental.” The J&J problem doesn’t help.
Amir Khalid
@Spanky:
Nate’s tone is … less than calm, let’s say. Is he losing it over a one-in-a-million chance of blood clots for people taking the J&J vaccine, or over the risk of people refusing the vaccine over a minuscule risk? Either way, I don’t see what he’s getting all wee-weed up about.
Elizabelle
@TaMara (HFG):
Take a duck or two with you. Or loan them out to us, as emotional support buddies.
Matt McIrvin
@Amir Khalid: It’s #2, but he’s writing badly enough that it’s hard to tell.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I wonder how much vaccine hesitancy grows out of pre-pandemic Pharma advertising. “Gavortex lowers cholesterol by up to 13%, and in rare cases has been known to cause explosive incontinence at weddings, funerals and job interviews”
WhatsMyNym
From the AP article via SeattleTimes –
dnfree
Our daughter, in that age range, just got the J&J last week, so naturally she and we are waiting anxiously. But beyond even the personal, she is in the music industry and has had almost no work for a year, although she has made some very creative opportunities. The vaccine has been her hope for a return to the job she loves.
germy
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
That’s quite possible. There are also people who believe there are a lot more autistic kids than there used to be. As if there’s been an explosion in cases of autism among children.
Instead of understanding that years ago, those kids weren’t diagnosed, they were bullied and/or ignored.
Suzanne
@Doc Sardonic: Apparently Heparin is not advised in this scenario. Not sure why. But IANAD.
Kristine
@Betty Cracker: You could let him know that a 62 yo Illinois woman on BJ got the J&J shot and was fine afterwards. Mild aches, and tenderness at the injection site, both gone after a few days. Sometimes one personal anecdote works better than statistics, however overwhelming the statistics.
Soprano2
My take is that this is what he’s concerned about, and it’s not an unreasonable fear. The way most people hear the news is in fits and starts, so a lot of people will hear “The J&J vaccine causes blood clots” and won’t hear the actual statistics that show that the risk is actually miniscule. Based on this shallow reading of the information, I fully expect a large number of people to refuse the J&J vaccine even when it’s available again. You have to remember, most people don’t follow the news the way we do, and the press is terrible when conveying information like this. Too many of them would rather sensationalize it than interpret it correctly. Trust me, most people won’t hear anything beyond the reporting about blood clots.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
OT? anyone know a good follow for following the Chauvin trial in real time? I just heard on NPR that the prosecution rested, and the defense has begun
WhatsMyNym
@KayInMD (formerly Kay (not the front-pager)): They’ve all ready stated that they have enough vaccines to switch them out for J&J if needed. More likely, any recommendations will come fast once they have all the documents on the few patients who have had the problems.
RandomMonster
Round 2 complete!
Chief Oshkosh
@Roger Moore: Agreed
WhatsMyNym
@dnfree: This is what they want you to look out for –
Soprano2
I had my 2nd dose of Pfizer yesterday. Last night I kept feeling hot, but when I took my temp it was 98.8, so in normal range. I didn’t sleep well – I kept waking up and feeling hot – but I was OK when I got up this morning, so I went to work. So far so good. This is less reaction than I had to the first dose so far.
As far as vaccines go, are there any others that are close to getting emergency usage authorization? I know there are others in the pipeline.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Suzanne: My DIL was encouraging her needle-phobic mother to schedule the J&J because it’s just one shot. This is not going to help
zhena gogolia
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I found this, but it’s NYT:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/04/13/us/derek-chauvin-trial
Major Major Major Major
I have no such humility. This is… understandable as a few-day action, since we’ve still got plenty of the mRNA vaccines, if it will increase public confidence. In other words it’s not as dumb as Europe pausing the AZ vaccine. But these numbers are just very very low and sometimes public health is just a simple trolley problem.
Amir Khalid
I’m following ABS News’ coverage of Derek Chauvin’s trial. The prosecution has rested, and defence attorney Eric Nelson has called his first two witnesses. It doesn’t seem to be going well for the defence.
scav
Nate’s just progressing further into his full media — social media-fueled — “journalist” if not “opinionist” phase. Continually increasing font size, always the exclamation points, the storms will get names and taxi drivers may start handing him datasets.
Feathers
@germy: Also the rise in autism cases has been balanced by a steep decline in cases of “mental retardation.” Children are also being mainstreamed into regular schools and not either kept at home or institutionalized, so there are more of them in the community than there used to be. Parameters for diagnosis have gotten broader, which leads to a far larger number of children (and adults) qualifying for a diagnosis.
Kristine
A good thread discussing the FDA briefing:
https://twitter.com/ArmstrongDrew/status/1381980945604079620?s=20
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@zhena gogolia: thanks!
Amir Khalid
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
ABC, NBC, and CBS have livestream coverage on YouTube.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Chief Oshkosh: I interpret it the same. Basically, because he IS a numbers guy, he looks at a 1 in 7 million event as a black swan event not worth pausing the rollout over. People have a higher risk of morbidity and mortality by NOT getting the J&J.
Another Scott
@Old School: Twitter is deadly for conveying nuanced information. Silver should know that.
Grrr…
Cheers,
Scott.
Major Major Major Major
re: the Silver tweet I don’t understand why everybody is upset? He’s saying that in his opinion pausing part of our vaccination drive because of a rare side effect is bad, partly because of public opinion, hardly a hysterical notion and obviously one held by the CDC as well.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
Also, day after Pfizer, feeling really tired and achy.
Chief Oshkosh
@WhatsMyNym:
So in other words, anyone who has made it this far into the thread… ;)
different-church-lady
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeell… at 5:13 this afternoon I’ll be able to tell you how this impacted appointments in Massachusetts….
SiubhanDuinne
I thought I’d be watching the Chauvin defence, but at the moment MSNBC is live covering the Lying in Honour ceremony for Billy Evans, the Capitol Police officer who was killed on duty ten days ago. And as usual (but even more than usual), I am just sobbing at the stupid, wasteful loss of such a good man and at the faces of his children. His young son, Logan, is wearing his dad’s uniform cap, and it’s heartbreaking.
schumer gave a wonderful tribute. Nancy’s up now, and Biden I think will give the last eulogy. I can’t bear it — how in the world do his colleagues and family keep it together — but I couldn’t possibly cut off the TV.
trollhattan
My kid (female, check; 18-48, check) got hers a week ago. Gave her the parental “not to worry” and told her to go counsel her hypochondriac friend who got it at the same time. One case per million+ doses ain’t much.
It hits our county because due to opening up the age range they are short-supplied overall. The timing is poor.
Major Major Major Major
@Roger Moore:
An idea so galaxy-brained and unhinged that the UK did it. I… get the Silver hate, I really have lost what little respect I still had for the guy over the last year… but it feels like people get mad at him for weird reasons. ETA Or misread him as uncharitably as possible? The tweet in question was perfectly clear to me fwiw
Suzanne
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Yeah. I would say that they should just hand out Ativan and get people all vaccined up, if necessary.
different-church-lady
trollhattan
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
My favorite remains the drug advertised for nervous leg syndrome (seriously?) that had among its possible side-effects “uncontrolled gambling.” J Stew did a whole bit on it on TDS.
different-church-lady
Nate:
This person doesn’t understand human psychology.
zhena gogolia
@Amir Khalid:
I can’t take the livestream. I need somebody digesting it for me into small bits that I can take during breaks. Aaron Rupar had been doing this but he doesn’t seem to be doing it today.
zhena gogolia
@different-church-lady:
Oh, good luck!
Another Scott
@Major Major Major Major:
BI:
(Emphasis added.)
Fauci understands that this stuff is more than just numbers. Silver, apparently, doesn’t.
Cheers,
Scott.
Elizabelle
@Soprano2: A friend’s side effects with last week’s second dose of Pfizer: mild flu symptoms for two days. A fever that approached 100. Feeling crappy for maybe 3 days.
And poor sleep for several days; finally resolved last night. The vaccine response seems to have interfered with her sleep patterns.
Yesterday and today: fine. And, always, happy and relieved to have gotten this life-preserving vaccine.
I was lucky. No response save a tender spot at the injection site for maybe 48 hours tops after the second dose.
Major Major Major Major
@Another Scott:
Now tell me about how the NHS doesn’t understand public health in your opinion.
different-church-lady
You know what I absolutely have run out of patience for?
Paranoid people.
Life is hazardous. DEAL WITH IT.
different-church-lady
@Major Major Major Major: Are we talking about the public’s mental health or physical health?
Another Scott
@Major Major Major Major: See the BI piece above. Fauci said there are reasonable arguments on both sides. But Silver seems to be of the opinion that if anyone doesn’t crunch the numbers the way he does then they’re being stupid.
It’s not helpful.
Cheers,
Scott.
Major Major Major Major
@Another Scott: ok because it sounded like your thesis was that people who understand more than just numbers would never do what the NHS does.
Major Major Major Major
@different-church-lady: ?
germy
sdhays
@Major Major Major Major: I just find his suggestion that the epidemiologists at the FDA can’t do basic math to be insulting. As if they don’t understand the severity of the risk and didn’t think of how pausing distribution of the J&J vaccine might be perceived by the media and public when they made the decision.
Maybe he’s right because he’s not distracted by the enormous weight of responsibility and domain knowledge that the folks at the FDA are operating under, but that’s not my bet.
Fair Economist
@Suzanne:
Quite possibly, but you’d need studies before you could adopt that for a broad population. By the time they could be completed we’d probably have enough mRNA vaccines for the entire population.
My guess is they will put out a recommendation that the J&J not be used in premenopausal women or anybody getting estrogen therapy and then restart use.
In terms of the relative risk, it might be 1 in a million, but if the events are largely restricted to women on birth control (who mostly have not been eligible until very recently) it could be 10 times that for them. That’s high enough to make a pause a very reasonable decision.
BruceFromOhio
Odds of dying in plane crash: 1 in 11 million. Hard to believe, but it is widely accepted as the safest way to travel. Regulation, how does it work?
Odds of being struck by a meteor: 1 in 1.6 million. See? Less regulation = MORE LIKELY TO DIE.
Many, many things are more likely to kill you then getting darted with J&J. Heart disease, motor vehicles, suicide, gun assaults, hell you are more likely to die from being attacked by a dog while being struck by lightning than from a blood clot resulting from a J&J shot.
Gaia save us all from US popular media that passes itself as news.
Feathers
@trollhattan: Nah, the best is the erectile dysfunction drug with “runny nose” as a side effect. Nearly fell off the sofa laughing at that one.
Central Planning
@WhatsMyNym: My wife had abdominal pain after Moderna #2, but that went away the next day. We figured it was a side-effect but not worthy of reporting.
sdhays
@germy: “Donald Trump demands that the Biden Administration give all of his followers the J&J vaccine IMMEDIATELY!!”
TomatoQueen
I was so happy that my Young Man rec’d the J & J as this solved a host of problems, and so far there have been no signs of anything major. One of his caregivers (female age 28) rec’d her J & J on Sunday afternoon and was a little tired afterward but yesterday felt fine. Today this nonsense. The other caregiver is not vacc’d yet, neither am I. DC, MD, VA all on pause for J & J after a months long shortage of doses. VA has just opened up to group 1C and then will open to all over age 16. I am Remaining Calm.
different-church-lady
@Major Major Major Major: Policy makers are fighting two battles right now:
1) get as many people as possible vaccinated as soon as possible
2) get the public to trust the vaccine and the process.
Sometimes doing something to help on one front hurts on the other.
But if you fail on front 2, you lose on front 1.
Fauci gets that. Silver does not. Because doses are quantifiable, and paranoia is not.
Fair Economist
@BruceFromOhio: I will point out that it’s not entirely fair to compared a yearly risk to what’s basically a one-week risk. I’m not sure risks over longer terms have been ruled out either.
Betty Cracker
@Kristine: True, and thank you!
germy
@sdhays:
Give Trump supporters that new wonder drug PLaCeBo.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
In my corner of SE PA the IT people are obviously scrambling (unsuccessfully) to keep up with the changing distribution.
The governor just decided (as far as I can tell, yesterday) that as of today, all Pennsylvania residents are eligible. But the various websites for signups are still screening based on profession or health status.
Rite Aid is so far the only one I’ve found that knows I’m eligible but they show no appointments within the radius I’m willing to explore. That might be real or it might be, as I suspect, a database issue.
Central Planning
@BruceFromOhio: Someone (maybe here) said once that they could wave a magnet over the arms of 1 million people and they would get a handful of side effects like headaches, stomach aches, and bruises at that site.
sdhays
@germy: No, we want them vaccinated in order to protect community. Flip this shit around on them. “Donny John vouched for the J&J vaccine and took on the Biden Administration that didn’t want to give it to you, so you know it’s good.”
germy
germy
@sdhays:
You’re right.
Save the placebo for their erectile dysfunction medicine.
Major Major Major Major
@Central Planning: wave it over enough arms and it’ll cure cancer!
Fair Economist
@Feathers:
That’s really good info, and I can’t believe I hadn’t heard that amidst the blizzard of attempts to explain increased rates of autism.
Betty Cracker
@germy: JFC. I guess we should be grateful that this ME ME ME statement is pro-vaccine rather than anti, but what a delusional and destructive prick he is.
germy
sdhays
@Central Planning: Don’t do that if you’ve gotten a vaccine! It might damage your Bill Gates microchip!!
germy
@Betty Cracker:
The former guy really hates pfizer for some reason. Is it because they weren’t part of his warp speed project?
different-church-lady
@BruceFromOhio: Not arguing with your point, but factor in time and experience. We have ahuge base of experience ti draw upon for dog bites and lightning strikes. We got a year at most with the J&J vaccine. A pause to try to understand it better is not unreasonable.
KayInMd (formerly Kay(not the front-pager))
Completely OT, I’m watching the memorial service for the Capitol Police officer who was killed when he was crushed by a driver trying to run the roadblock into the Capitol. President Biden’s eulogy is just remarkable. After addressing the truly horrific first four months of 2021 for the Capitol Police, and his sympathy for the difficult call to the family of the family of fallen officer, it is addressed almost exclusively to the immediate family. Yes, much of it is words we’ve heard from him before, but he speaks in such a personal, comforting way that it feels fresh. It just seems remarkable in this sort of ordinarily formal and anodine setting. And a real contrast to the former guy.
trollhattan
@Feathers:
That IS good, on many levels. :-)
sdhays
@germy: They waited to announce that their vaccine was ready until after the election.
different-church-lady
@germy: It’s because he has brain worms.
WaterGirl
@KayInMd (formerly Kay(not the front-pager)): Do you have a link for that?
trollhattan
@germy:
He’s not wrong.
We’re so numbed by it I wonder whether the desire to change it has a chance.
germy
@sdhays:
Oh, that’s right.. I forgot about that.
And he’s held a grudge ever since.
And he lashes out by accusing them of conspiracies. (Knowing one of his deranged followers might start shooting)
rikyrah
Vice President Harris is making her mark on the Washington-area crochet scene
By Jura Koncius
April 12, 2021 at 12:44 p.m. CDT
When Vice President Harris visited a woman-owned yarn shop in Alexandria last month, she mentioned a little-known fact about herself that left the fiber arts community a bit giddy.
The new vice president is a crocheter.
“I was raised by a mother who said ‘I am not going to let you sit in front of that television doing nothing.’ And so I have crocheted more afghans than I can tell you,” Harris said while visiting the store. “And our daughter is a knitter.”
At the shop, Harris found out about a special hand-dyed yarn named in her honor (Observatory Circle) from Neighborhood Fiber Co., a woman-owned Baltimore-based business. Five days later, on International Women’s Day, a crocheted mural of Harris’s likeness and the words “I’m Speaking” was installed at the Wharf. And with all the Googling of “Kamala Harris and crochet” there was a spike at craftyiscool.com of online sales for a pattern to crochet a Harris doll in the Japanese style of amigurumi. (Translated from the Japanese, amigurumi means little knitted toy, says Allison Hoffman who owns the Austin business, “but I tell people that I crochet small dolls and cute toys out of yarn.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/home/kamala-harris-crochet-dc/2021/04/12/7237cd06-8e6b-11eb-9423-04079921c915_story.html
artem1s
@Suzanne:
let’s not be coy here. Concern for the homeless not showing up for a second dose was NOT the motivator to rush a single dose vaccine in the US. It was a combo of USA!$$$USA!$$$ USA!$$$ MADEIN’MURICA!!!$$$ and those A Idiots in TFG states aren’t going to let the gubmit and evil Pharma companies take their info so they can be reminded to come and get their second shots (haha J&J was going to stick you with a G5 tracking chip anyway!).
Yes, it’s a concern that some people will find it hard to go back for shot #2. But the states handled that with the first round by GOING TO the senior centers and administering both shots. The states or FEMA or the Guard should be rolling out more mobile response units anyway to getting in touch with the folks who have a hard time getting to vaccine centers – not just drive by – mobile units that go out to churches and homeless centers, post offices! and soup kitchens (like for instance, what the Red Cross use for blood donations). The mistake was sending the message that there is something fishy with a two stage shot in the first place. The pressure should be to get the vaccine to as many people as possible AND STILL follow up and monitor them (and maybe get them some other assistance) even if they are getting a single dose J&J. A single dose solution allowed states to hide their distribution issues with minority populations and vax deniers. It was there for PR convenience, not the consumer’s.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, …
(Points to a WaPo story saying all troops will be out of Afghanistan by 9/11/2021.)
(via LOLGOP)
Cheers,
Scott.
germy
@different-church-lady:
If not for those worms, the skull would be completely unoccupied.
Ken
Because that’s what he would have done, if Pfizer paid him enough. Projection, always projection.
Baud
@Another Scott:
Symbolic date?
germy
@Ken:
Crooks think everyone’s a crook. Thieves think everyone’s a thief.
zhena gogolia
Wow.
Roger Moore
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
That’s a reasonable POV, but most people are not numbers guys like Nate, and he needs to recognize that public health measures need to deal with public reactions as well as numbers. The FDA is justifiably worried that treating something like this by brushing it off as a trivial risk is going to scare people who are vaccine hesitant and hurt the vaccination effort overall. Taking a pause to send out guidance information to doctors and to reassure the public with a PR campaign that explains the numbers to them is better than bulling ahead.
sdhays
@germy: I had forgotten about it until you asked the question. Only in the TFG’s petty little world was the vaccine ever about him.
mrmoshpotato
@different-church-lady:
He’s also been a sentient shitstain since he burst out of his mom’s chest.
(Apologies to the chestbusters for the comparison. And the facehuggers too.)
Old School
@Baud: It’s a Saturday. Everyone moves on a Saturday.
Cheryl Rofer
@Major Major Major Major: My objection to Nate Silver’s insistence on things pandemic (and Zeynep Tufekci’s; she does the same thing) is that he is saying
They don’t make a serious case, beyond their (sometimes imagined) qualifications, which have some, but not much, to do with epidemiology.
By saying that the experts are WRONG WRONG WRONG, they are undermining confidence in the public health message, usually out of an expressed concern that if you don’t do it their way, you will undermine confidence in the public health message.
Ken
@Central Planning: That was Derek Lowe’s “In the Pipeline”, quoted here. In his version, there wasn’t a magnet; just “If you wave your hand over their arms”. So Reiki, not Orgone.
Another Scott
Yup.
(via nycsouthpaw)
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@Baud: Seems to be.
20 years is a very long time… :-(
Cheers,
Scott.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Live stream on YouTube here.
mrmoshpotato
@Another Scott: Has bitchass Upchuck Toddler started horseracing the vaccines against each other yet?
trollhattan
Meanwhile, Tucker, being Tucker doubles down on Tucker.
“Jews will not replace us” may become a point of open debate sometime soon at this rate. “Jews, will they replace you and if so, with what? Coming up right after these messages.”
jonas
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix: I took Silver’s tweet to mean that freaking out about 7 deaths in a million makes no sense when avoiding the vaccine is going to inevitably kill a lot more people. People really are innumerate when it comes to things like this — they’ll claim that this proves that the vaccine is “too risky,” yet, statistically, the likelihood of getting in a fatal car accident on the way to the grocery store is far higher and they’ll do that a couple times a week without even thinking.
Am I missing something?
trollhattan
@Another Scott:
“Correlation, meet causation. Causation, this is correlation. What can I get you two from the bar?”
jonas
@trollhattan: Speaking personally, I would have absolutely no problem with seeing Tucker and his audience completely replaced.
Baud
@jonas:
Treating a pause to take a look as not freaking out is where Silver loses the plot.
mrmoshpotato
@trollhattan: The Sun is big enough for the entire Murdoch organization. Just saying – just saying we should fire them all into the Sun.
germy
@trollhattan:
“I’ll have whatever he’s having.”
UncleEbeneezer
@TaMara (HFG): Our neighbor who, how do I put it nicely, isn’t the best critical thinker we know, was already scared about the J&J vaccine based on stuff she was reading last week. Hopefully I can avoid a conversation with her today.
Ken
@germy: Congratulations, you have won today’s internet.
Matt McIrvin
@germy: Pfizer both declined to give him credit for their vaccine that he had nothing to do with, and also didn’t announce it until just after Election Day, which Trump probably sees as a deliberate delay to hurt him, since everything is about him.
(Hell, I thought myself that Pfizer had deliberately stalled until after US Election Day, until I saw the timeline plotted out in detail–Pfizer announced as soon as they could according to their pre-planned protocols.)
Raven
Washington (CNN) – President Joe Biden plans to announce Tuesday a withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by the upcoming twentieth anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks, according to three people familiar with the plans.
KayInMD (formerly Kay (not the front-pager))
@WaterGirl: Sorry, no. I was watching on TV, MSNBC.
Ken
@trollhattan: How long before he moves on to “Our white women must increase their fecundity and out-breed the other races”? Followed, perhaps, by Dr. Strangelove quotes about prodigious service and highly stimulating nature.
Suzanne
@artem1s: No matter what the motivation was for its creation, the way many states and counties are using/planning to use the J&J indicates that a single-dose shot is a valuable tool in the public health toolbox.
Which is to say that Nate Silver may be correct, ultimately, that the risk of rare side effects is worth the reward. But he should stop being flippant about it; caution is reasonable, too.
CaseyL
@Cheryl Rofer:
Reason No. Infinity + 1 why it’s a bad idea to get one’s medical (or, really, any other) information from Twitter.
Kay
@trollhattan:
It’s just more lying denial, though. Democrats just beat Donald Trump and they did it without changing the population. They beat an incumbent and an incumbent who used the whole federal apparatus (and lots of federal resources) to bolster his campaign.
He’s still pretending Fox News and Donald Trump won. They lost.
Amir Khalid
@mrmoshpotato:
I’m a Liverpool FC fan. While we’re at it, we should also fire The Sun into the sun.
Karen
I got the J& J vaccine in the hospital almost 3 weeks ago. I’ve had two DVTs so when I went to rehab they gave me injectable blood thinners since I was in bed for so long. But what happens after that? Is within three weeks when the J & J blood clots would happen and after then I’m home free? Or will I have to be on the lookout for them for the rest of my life?
Major Major Major Major
@Cheryl Rofer: You’re not wrong… I have been enjoying Tufekci’s work, but she definitely has the ego issue, more so on her Twitter feed than her actual publications. I do think she’s been very good on aerosols, as well as promoting outdoor activities.
Roger Moore
@Major Major Major Major:
It wasn’t just that he advocated doing it. He acted as if there wasn’t even a serious question that it was the right thing to do and anyone who disagreed wanted people to die unnecessarily. I personally thought it was an interesting plan, but that there are serious reasons not to do it. We hadn’t tested it the way he suggested, and there were a lot of unknowns. For example, we know the vaccine isn’t as effective in a single dose, and it might be enough less effective to prevent herd immunity in a population that’s received only a single dose. That could be very, very bad if it leads to vaccine-resistant strains. But because it’s hard to quantify those kinds of risks, he ignored them.
Basically, I think it points to a serious flaw with Nate as a data journalist and to a lesser extent with data journalism as an exercise. It’s easy to skim the most important points out of data with a generalist knowledge of numbers, and that’s really useful if you’re going to be a data journalism generalist. But those most important points are not the whole story, and a deep knowledge of the specific area is important in getting beyond a superficial analysis.Now Nate has developed that kind of deeper subject area knowledge in a couple of fields (baseball and elections). He has correctly criticized other people for thinking their statistical knowledge is enough to make good election predictions when they have ignored important points he understood, e.g. that individual state swings are highly correlated. But he lacks the humility and self-awareness to recognize that he is not an expert in every field, and he risks making the exact same kind of mistake when he acts as if his generalist knowledge of data analysis makes him smarter than the people who are experts in particular subdomains.
burnspbesq
@Quiltingfool:
That’s what dads do.
WaterGirl
@KayInMD (formerly Kay (not the front-pager)): thanks for letting me know.
Kay
@trollhattan:
Donald Trump got the most definitive negative performance review our system can deliver. Losing a second term. Mitt Romney still has the potential to be a popular and effective President. In theory. We’ll never know. Donald Trump got a shot and was rejected for the rehire.
It’s the difference between not getting hired and getting fired. It’s worse.
different-church-lady
@Another Scott:
Normal people will be able to sort this out for themselves. It’s the other 80% we need to worry about.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Betty Cracker: You can always tell you 76-old wingnut Dad that the blood clots are a ‘female thing’. Sadly, that might actually be logic that makes sense to him.
Baud
@different-church-lady:
You’re optimistic today.
ETA: For just a moment apparently.
WhatsMyNym
@Karen: You’re already past the 3 week risk period.
smedley the uncertain
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix: Heh, I took that as saracasm… Ragging on the anti-vaxxers.
Ken
That’s why I use WebMD for all my medical information.
(BTW if you ever want to see your physician wince, just drop that line.)
burnspbesq
Is what Silver is doing really worse, in the grand scheme of things, than Abbott’s announcement that Texas is on the verge of achieving herd immunity?
different-church-lady
@germy: @Roger Moore:
Numbers guys think everyone is a numbers guy.
Baud
@burnspbesq:
Few things are worse in the grand scheme of things than Abbott.
different-church-lady
@burnspbesq: Hey, if there’s one thing Texas should know about, it’s cattle.
smedley the uncertain
@Chief Oshkosh: My read as well.
different-church-lady
@Ken: The thing I worry about is the probability my doctor is getting her info from WebMD.
James E Powell
@Another Scott:
I’m trying to think of “[a]n incredibly crucial, high-stakes test for the press” that the press has not failed.
Kay
Clap, clap, clap. Finally.
It will be popular too.
Another Scott
@James E Powell: Sometimes* in the “hope vs experience” contest hope wins!
;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
* – Surely there’s an example somewhere…
mrmoshpotato
@Ken:
My condolences. Sorry to hear WebMD gave you cancer.
StringOnAStick
@germy: TFG is mad about the J&J pause and blames it on Pfizer; just more of his grievance issues because J&J was involved in his precious Operation Warp Speed and Pfizer very publicly said they were not when TFG tried to take credit for the Pfizer roll out. I understand that the contract manufacturer who screwed up the J&J doses recently was TFG-connected, so that scans.
At this point I think FOX is trying to reduce vaccination acceptance as part of the “fuck up the country as much as possible so D’s lose the coming elections” strategy that McTurtle and the rest of elected R’s are pushing, even if it kills more of their followers. They simply do not care about the misery they are enabling and are too unschooled in science to realise the longer this pandemic goes on, the greater the chance that we never get out of it and that the old days of “normal” may never return. They are a death cult.
skerry
Got my second Pfizer this morning. Feeling good.
different-church-lady
Let’s say you’re driving a car down the highway. You hear something strange that sounds kind of like maybe one of your tires is going flat.
A rational person would pull over and have a look at the tires. Apparently Nate Silver would download some data about flat tires, calculate the odds he had one, and realizing they hardly ever happen compared to the number of miles driven per year, just keep right on going.
Now let’s say same situation, but you’re running late: the sane person might now be conflicted — does it sound enough like a flat tire for me to show up to work even later? What’s worse, me being two minutes later, or me actually having a flat at highway speeds? (Nate could pull a lot of data on this and come up with a intellectually interesting answer, but by then you’d be a day late, Twitter ain’t gonna wait around for that, and xkcd’s answer would be a lot more entertaining.)
Now let’s say same situation except you’re the driver of a bus with 75 people on it. You have two responsibilities: get to the destination on time and maintain the safety of your passengers. Now, even though the mathematical probabilities of a flat tire remain the same, the psychological and sociological calculations are really different, aren’t they?
Now let’s say the bus is driving away from Godzilla destroying a city and…
Roger Moore
@Suzanne:
My understanding is that the underlying reason why J&J went with a single shot vaccine is their technology prevents booster shots from working. The J&J vaccine uses an adenovirus as a delivery system for DNA for the spike protein. The adenovirus invades your cells and delivers the DNA, which then programs the cells to make SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. The problem is that the immune system can respond to both the spike protein and the adenovirus delivery system. When you get a booster shot, the immune system attacks the adenovirus and inactivates it before it can do its job.
Ruckus
@StringOnAStick:
Well, they are a death cult as far as the majority of humans are concerned, as their major interest is MONEY. Specifically, getting and hanging on to all they can, legally or not.
@different-church-lady:
Very nice rant!
different-church-lady
It’s like the entire country looked at the cover of the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy and screamed, “FUCK THAT SHIT!!!”
Amir Khalid
@burnspbesq:
I’d like to see Abbott’s claim backed up by a medical expert who doesn’t work for Texas.
Ruckus
@karen marie:
I know a lady that works at a grocery store as a checkout clerk. She wasn’t going to get vaccinated for reasons her husband couldn’t explain but she found out that she wouldn’t be able to travel without being vaccinated. So she and her husband got shots, J&J. Last week.
WaterGirl
@StringOnAStick: The former guy probably bought stock in J&J or else arranged for a kickback based on # of doses of J&J that go into arms.
Brachiator
@different-church-lady:
The safety of the passengers and the integrity of the bus take precedence over getting to the destination on time. If this is a city bus, the driver would call headquarters, get advice, and maybe end up waiting for a replacement bus. There is a procedure to be followed no matter what the mathematical possibilities might be.
I guess the equivalent here is that Nate’s reveries are irrelevant to what the CDC’s own evaluations and recommendations might be.
Fair Economist
@Ken:
WebMD is remarkably good at inserting itself into searches I do on medical issues. I find them annoyingly phluffy. Lotsa yack, little data.
BruceFromOhio
@Fair Economist: Noted, and thank you. I was just being a dick about it to illustrate how these things require CONTEXT to be understood properly. As others have commented, the news media constantly provide the fence-sitters and anti-vaxxers ample fuel for the various fires.
BruceFromOhio
@Central Planning:
I have a proven snake oil remedy for those ailments! Only 19.99 with FREE DELIVERY.
BruceFromOhio
@different-church-lady:
Agree, quite reasonable. What is unreasonable is how the simpering idiots in the mass media and their respective consumers portray this quite reasonable action.
BruceFromOhio
@different-church-lady:
This is awesome. Consider it stolen.
unique uid
@Roger Moore:
I think your understanding might be off (but just an amateur here). I was in the J&J Ensemble2 study, which was looking at efficacy of over 60YO people when given two shots of the J&J. I don’t think they would have bothered with the study if a booster shot was worthless.
I had the first shot ~2 months ago. Was unblinded about 3 weeks ago, found out I had placebo. I guess that limited my participation in the study, but they scheduled me to get J&J next Monday (just one shot). This morning’s news had me scrambling for an alternate, was able to get an appointment at Kroger for Pfizer tomorrow. (will still contact study and see what they have to say)
unique uid
@different-church-lady:
A true-to-life example from a township that voted 60% TFG: guy at the front door asking if he can look around the front yard for his tire. Was driving home last night, started thumping, Since he was close to home, he sped up, expecting to get there faster. Tire totally came off, he was able to stop on the shoulder and walk home. Was having a hard time locating the tire.
Maybe not a rational person?
Oh, and this is 20 miles from Nate Silver’s childhood home. I used to work for his father at MSU.
Ken
Randall Munroe’s take on the trolley problem. Though I think he’s banned discussion of it from his blog.
IIRC, in one of Jasper Fforde’s Thursday Next novels, Thursday ends up on a Bookworld ship and all sorts of horrible situations start arising. She realizes that she’s in an ethics textbook, and there’s only one way she can save the passengers….
different-church-lady
@Ken: Like I said, Randall’s explanation of flat tire probability would be a lot more entertaining.
Probably a lot more illuminating too.
WaterGirl
@BruceFromOhio: I think that’s supposed to be FREE, with only 19.99 delivery. :-)
Bill Arnold
For the flip side of the risk calculation (I haven’t seen the Silver comments), SARS-CoV-2 also causes blood clots. A lot of blood clots. (I’m just starting poking through some recent COVID-19 blood clots research and it’s scary.) Basically, not ever getting vaccinated means eventually getting unlucky and getting infected with the real virus (or an evolved successor), with a major risk of blood clots, some of which might do long term damage (e.g. if in the brain or heart), or kill more quickly. Here’s a The Lancet paper (40 citations already):
Thromboembolism risk of COVID-19 is high and associated with a higher risk of mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis (Open access, Mahmoud B. Malas et al, November 20, 2020)
Note: this paper does not include breakdowns by age or gender; it’s a meta-analysis. (However, there have been an alarming number of reports of young people with COVID-19-related strokes or heart attacks, almost certainly quantified somewhere.)
Kayla Rudbek
@rikyrah: and Neighborhood Fiber Company is now going to sell the Observatory Circle color throughout Madam VP’s term of office. I should check with fibre space to see if they have any in stock.
It was quite the thrill to see her at fibre space (I have bought so much yarn there for so many years that when my brother set foot in there for the first time, they said to him, “oh, you must be Kayla’s brother.”)
Ken
I just got an appointment for my first shot, and it’s for tomorrow! A two-dose vaccine, not J&J. I’m kind of wondering if the slot opened up because the J&J announcement scared someone off.
debbie
This totally screws up DeWine’s plan to get all college students at Ohio’s colleges and universities vaccinated before summer. Bummer.
LongHairedWeirdo
Apropos of nothing in particular, I’m actually mildly happy to see this, because it shows the thing that bugged me about people saying the Oxford/AZ vaccine showed blood clots occurring at a rate equivalent to the expected rate in the population.
I was prepared to believe that, but, if so, why hadn’t another vaccine – Pfizer, the one that lets us laugh at Trump’s pathetic “I get credit for the vaccine”; and/or Moderna – had the same reported issue, at roughly the same frequency? If there’s an X% chance that people will turn rainbow colored for 24 hours, with or without the vaccine, we should see statistics about rainbow hue syndrome with all of the vaccines, at a frequency that all map to roughly a single 95% confidence interval. Otherwise, we should consider whether the vaccine might trigger a latent problem, and make it noticeable (or any one of a number of other hypotheses).
I also think this could be a positive development – we might understand more about how Covid-19 causes clots and other problems.
burnspbesq
@Amir Khalid:
Even his own advisors said he’s incorrect.
J R in WV
Here’s some technical epidemiology for thrombosis in the general population:
So one case per 1,000,000 vaccinations appear to be lower by far than the natural incidence of blood clots in the regular population.
Very interesting numbers, I wonder why the CDC/FDA ordered a pause when the incidence of clots in the vaccinated population is lower than the incidence in the population at large?