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You are here: Home / Politics / Live Blogging / What Goes Up…

What Goes Up…

by Cheryl Rofer|  May 8, 20219:34 pm| 40 Comments

This post is in: Live Blogging, Science & Technology

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Satellite watchers are counting down. A 23-ton Chinese Long March rocket has been circling (ellipsing, actually) down and should re-enter the atmosphere any time now. Here’s a list of sites and people to follow who will be following the rocket’s trajectory.

The orbit has been erratic as it dips toward the atmosphere, so its exact entry and ultimate end can’t be predicted. It passed over Australia a few minutes ago, or should have if it didn’t disintegrate into the sea before that.

It will most likely fall into the sea, since that’s 70% of the earth’s surface. WordPress won’t let embed a tracker, but here’s Jonathan McDowell’s latest tweet. He makes a practice of tracking space junk.

Rocket now passing over the South Pacific – if it is still up. Next landfall will be Savegre, Costa Rica at 0144 UTC (7.44pm local time). It will pass over Limon, Costa Rica seconds later. Very interested in any reports of it being seen passing over at that time.

— Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) May 9, 2021

Open thread!

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Reader Interactions

40Comments

  1. 1.

    KrackenJack

    May 8, 2021 at 9:36 pm

    Landfall is an ambiguous choice of words in this situation…

  2. 2.

    Ken

    May 8, 2021 at 9:37 pm

    Obligatory.

  3. 3.

    Tom Levenson

    May 8, 2021 at 9:37 pm

    I’m wearing a cap. I’m sure that will protect me.

  4. 4.

    Cheryl Rofer

    May 8, 2021 at 9:39 pm

    @Tom Levenson: I hope it’s tinfoil-lined

  5. 5.

    Mary G

    May 8, 2021 at 9:42 pm

    If it could just get to Florida and land on a certain golf course, with SS agents able to run to safety…

  6. 6.

    Ken

    May 8, 2021 at 9:43 pm

    My God, the comments on that YouTube tracker.  Or maybe I shouldn’t invoke God – of the ones I could read, a horribly large proportion seem to be asking God to drop the rocket on <insert country here>.

  7. 7.

    Chetan Murthy

    May 8, 2021 at 9:47 pm

    @Ken: I remember when Skylab came down.  I was a high school freshman, visiting India with my family.  I remember reading in the newspapers of many, many peasants praying for it to come down on their house, so the US government would pay them compensation.  In the end, it came down in the Australian outback.

  8. 8.

    Robert Sneddon

    May 8, 2021 at 9:53 pm

    @Chetan Murthy: 

    There’s a number of one-kangaroo towns in Australia with a museum-shack displaying bits of the Skylab space station that were found locally after the Great Skyfall. It resulted in a widespread footprint of parts and impacts after it disintegrated high up.

  9. 9.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    May 8, 2021 at 9:54 pm

    @Chetan Murthy:

     I remember reading in the newspapers of many, many peasants praying for it to come down on their house, so the US government would pay them compensation.  In the end, it came down in the Australian outback.

    I don’t think they’d have needed to worry about being compensated by the US government if a large space station reentering the atmosphere slammed into their home. Or about much of anything else ever again lol. Assuming they were home at the tim

    ETA: then again, it didn’t come down in one piece if IIRC, so maybe not

  10. 10.

    Honus

    May 8, 2021 at 9:55 pm

    @Chetan Murthy: I was working putting a roof on house when skylab came down. We all wore hard hats when we back up on the roof after lunch.

  11. 11.

    Steeplejack

    May 8, 2021 at 9:57 pm

    @Robert Sneddon:

    “One-kangaroo towns.” ? Good one!

  12. 12.

    dmsilev

    May 8, 2021 at 9:57 pm

    From the map in this Tweet,

    UPDATE Our latest prediction for #LongMarch5B CZ-5B rocket body reentry is ? 09 MAY 2021 03:02 UTC ± 2 hours along the ground track shown here. 1/ pic.twitter.com/JeIKVUd1fk— The Aerospace Corporation (@AerospaceCorp) May 8, 2021

    looks like Mexico central Florida have some risk of being hit by the thing, but most likely scenario is harmlessly hitting the Pacific.

  13. 13.

    opiejeanne

    May 8, 2021 at 10:00 pm

    @Chetan Murthy:  The very young son of some church friends of my parents was absolutely terrified that Skylab would fall on his house.

    I was trying to remember if it was the kid who grew up to be an astronaut, but no. That kid was 19 when Skylab fell, but that would have made a great story.

  14. 14.

    CaseyL

    May 8, 2021 at 10:04 pm

    One of the linked stories noted that the rocket will break apart on re-entry and fall in pieces, but didn’t say how big the pieces were likely to be – or how widespread.

    Skylab was three times the weight (~90 tons vs. 23), so I don’t expect there to be much of a show.  I realize “not much of a show” is very relative – if even a tiny 500-lb piece falls on someone, it will be their last show ever.

  15. 15.

    Robert Sneddon

    May 8, 2021 at 10:13 pm

    @CaseyL: Skylab had things like a lead-lined safe to keep camera film in and various other structural parts which were big and dense like the airlocks. Some of the other bits that made it to ground in recognisable pieces were pressurised gas tanks and the like. They didn’t hit the ground that hard, maybe 200kph or a bit more.

     

    The Long March 5B core stage is a cryogenic fuelled booster (LOX/LH2), mostly large thin-walled tanks, plumbing and support structures, built light to save weight. The big dense lumps that will hit the ground/water hard at speed will be the engines if they separate from the main structures.

  16. 16.

    Cameron

    May 8, 2021 at 10:22 pm

    Can’t they just shoot this sucker down with one of those Jewish space lasers?

  17. 17.

    Fair Economist

    May 8, 2021 at 10:29 pm

    Passed over Jordan at 2:11 UTC (17 minutes prior to this post).

  18. 18.

    Another Scott

    May 8, 2021 at 10:36 pm

    Yet another tracker site:

    Latest TIP (as of 2021-05-09 0000Z) for CZ-5B (#LongMarch5B) (48275 / 2021-035B) shows projected re-entry at 2021-05-09 0211(UTC) +/- 60 minutes at latitude 35.9, longitude 24.4 (Mediterranean Basin)

    At 7.8 km/s, just 1 minute diff in the time of reentry =470 km diff in final loc

    — Space-Track (@SpaceTrackOrg) May 9, 2021

    It’s now 0233 UTC, so about 23-24 hours or so to go. (Unless I’ve made a mistake!)

    [eta:] Which of course I did.  It’s 5/9/2021 0238 UTC now…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  19. 19.

    Cheryl Rofer

    May 8, 2021 at 10:36 pm

    Confirmed rocket was still in orbit at 0211 UTC only going over Jordan… https://t.co/ycSQ2yfXo9

    — Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) May 9, 2021

  20. 20.

    Cheryl Rofer

    May 8, 2021 at 10:39 pm

    After Perth, we have Stanley and Bridport in Tasmania, at 0243 UTC, and five minutes later Collingwood and Wellington in New Zealand. Having said that, we're getting to the end of the entry window and it's more likely that it's down by now.

    — Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) May 9, 2021

  21. 21.

    Fair Economist

    May 8, 2021 at 10:39 pm

    @Another Scott: It’s already the 9th UTC time so that prediction missed.

    Reports aren’t going to be good for the Australian flyover because it’s day there – hard to see the rocket.

  22. 22.

    dmsilev

    May 8, 2021 at 10:40 pm

    @Another Scott: Looks like most of the models have an uncertainty of an hour or two. Which is to say, roughly one full orbit.

  23. 23.

    Matt McIrvin

    May 8, 2021 at 10:41 pm

    @Fair Economist: It’s probably already gone down in the sea somewhere.

  24. 24.

    Another Scott

    May 8, 2021 at 10:41 pm

    @Fair Economist: Yeah, I got the day wrong.  Thanks.

    They have +/-1 hour error bars, so they still have about 30 minutes to be “right”.

    Given all the unknowns, it’s amazing they can be that close, really.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  25. 25.

    Fair Economist

    May 8, 2021 at 10:47 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: Quite possibly, and apparently Wellington was socked in leaving no observations possible until Mexico, so most likely we’ll never see anything else.

  26. 26.

    JR

    May 8, 2021 at 10:49 pm

    @Ken: … and I’m learning Chinese, says Werner Von Braun

  27. 27.

    Another Scott

    May 8, 2021 at 10:50 pm

    Spoke with the team. We have indications the ? is down. Once they get radar confirmation of nothing in orbit (after 0300UTC) they will release the final message with time. Y’all can stop hiding in your bunkers. @SpaceTrackOrg

    — MotherOfAllLaunches (@Skitt0608) May 9, 2021

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  28. 28.

    Cheryl Rofer

    May 8, 2021 at 10:52 pm

    Insiders at SpaceForce reporting that data indicates the rocket has indeed reentered, but waiting for confirmation (i.e. it correctly fails to show up on radar next time around). Presumably somewhere between the Middle East and Australia. Stay tuned…

    — Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) May 9, 2021

  29. 29.

    Ken

    May 8, 2021 at 10:59 pm

    This whole thread is reminding me of a similar watch…

  30. 30.

    Another Scott

    May 8, 2021 at 11:03 pm

    Peaceful Chinese space exploration rocket shot down on orders of United States Warlord Joseph Biden.

    — DPRK News Service (@DPRK_News) May 8, 2021

    ;-)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  31. 31.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    May 8, 2021 at 11:04 pm

    @Another Scott: Heh.

  32. 32.

    Cheryl Rofer

    May 8, 2021 at 11:11 pm

    The CNSA/CMS official account on Weibo confirms that #LongMarch5 CZ5B booster has reentered at 02:24 UTC, May 9. The location of the reentry is 72.47°E, 2.65°N. https://t.co/1vJXD5P7LW The CMS website appears to be down, though.

    — Ye Quanzhi (叶泉志) (@Yeqzids) May 9, 2021

  33. 33.

    Cheryl Rofer

    May 8, 2021 at 11:13 pm

    China now reporting https://t.co/dHSJVoItCY that the rocket reentered at 0224 UTC at 72.47E 2.65N which is right over the Maldives. If correct will be interesting to see if we get reports from there pic.twitter.com/NQovz33pqg

    — Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) May 9, 2021

  34. 34.

    Sister Golden Bear

    May 9, 2021 at 12:06 am

    Obligatory:

    “Once the rockets are up, who cares where they come down?
    That’s not my department” says Wernher von Braun

  35. 35.

    hoosierspud

    May 9, 2021 at 12:11 am

    This story reminds me of John Belushi’s report on Skylab on SNL:  https://youtu.be/4Q4JfaHjAng

  36. 36.

    Another Scott

    May 9, 2021 at 12:22 am

    Speaking of “… must come down…”

    https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin

    rofl.

    Cheers,
    Scott.
    (“ref – a certain egomaniac hosting SNL, and talking it up recently.”)

  37. 37.

    NotMax

    May 9, 2021 at 12:45 am

    Of course it comes down on the Sabbath, when the Jewish Space Lasers are turned off.

  38. 38.

    Another Scott

    May 9, 2021 at 1:09 am

    The #ChineseRocket doesn't land on Mar-a-Lago.

    Suddenly, 34% more Americans don't believe there is a God.

    — Mrs. Betty Bowers (@BettyBowers) May 9, 2021

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  39. 39.

    David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch

    May 9, 2021 at 6:17 am

    Space Balls Command has this in the palm of their hands

  40. 40.

    LiminalOwl (formerly The Fat White Duchess)

    May 9, 2021 at 10:20 am

    @Chetan Murthy: I was a college freshman, with my first full-time job that summer at a newspaper. The reporters had a pool going as to where and when Skylab would land; I think they even printed up T-shirts. (And yeah, now I’m thinking about privilege…)

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