Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) is questioning whether the Capitol rioters were Trump supporters. He says nobody did a "poll" of the rioters. This is ridiculous. The rioters wore Trump hats/shirts, flew Trump flags, chanted pro-Trump slogans, and later told the feds they loved Trump.
— Marshall Cohen (@MarshallCohen) May 12, 2021
From yesterday’s hearing with Christopher Miller, who was (nominally) in charge of the Pentagon’s Capitol-riot response. Never thought I’d be grateful Stephen Lynch is in Congress, but JFC these Repubs…
Democrats grilled former Trump officials at a House hearing on the response to the January 6th Capitol attack https://t.co/S1Pxn8Q2rF pic.twitter.com/eXtNuDaoP3
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 13, 2021
This is Rep. Andrew Clyde (Q-GA) saying the January 6 insurrection looked like “a normal tourist visit” inside the Capitol.
Just batsh*t crazy.
Has anyone told him it’s all on video?pic.twitter.com/iUtoDTneD2
— Rex Chapman???? (@RexChapman) May 12, 2021
A “normal tourist visit” cc @Rep_Clyde https://t.co/5xGNpjNKb6
— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) May 13, 2021
WaPo: During a House hearing, one Republican accused the Justice Department of harassing “peaceful patriots” as the FBI seeks to identify and arrest rioters who breached the Capitol.https://t.co/YtiWq7R6zr
— Yamiche Alcindor (@Yamiche) May 13, 2021
Jody Hice, who is running for Georgia secretary state with Trump's support, said: "It was Trump supporters who lost their lives that day, not Trump supporters who were taking the lives of others." https://t.co/z6jgVlGz7S
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) May 12, 2021
The most astounding thing about this (and there are many) is that these lawmakers are denying a violent insurrection that took place *at their own place of work.*
They were there! Their own lives, and their own staffers’ lives, were literally in danger.
— Felicia Sonmez (@feliciasonmez) May 12, 2021
But their God-Emperor had cast his cloak of protection over them… IT’S A F*CKING DEATH CULT.
lamh36
HEY BJ!!!
Been a long time since I’ve posted a comment, but wanted to post my 2cents on the mask/unmask stuff
I disagree with this a bit.
I am an essential worker and I know folks who have had COVID and who have died from COVID and I’m not “celebrating” the mask thing.
But I understand folks being wary, but honestly I think It’s pretty obvious that most people don’t understand how vaccines work or primary transmission of respiratory viruses and that is why you have so much pushback when it comes to any regulations about mask on/off. ??♀️
As a Microbiologist if you knew how many deadly infectious diseases you come into contact with on a daily basis, you may NEVER go without a mask or PPE (personal protective equipment) COVID or no-COVID. The fear of disease would keep ya inside ya house.
But the knowledge I have as a experienced person on transmission and infectious disease cycles and efficacy of vaccine and the like, compared to a layman who doesn’t have the same experience, allows me to understand and feel a bit more freedom and comfort with the mask stuff.
I don’t expect a layman to have the same understanding as I do. So I’m of the school wear a mask or don’t, but the fear of COVID non-vaxxers is not the primary reason I will choose to wear/not wear a mask in certain situations
natem
Yeah this felt like it was going to be destined to be a footnote in history, and it’s bearing out. The insurrection is just too inconvenient to the Trumpist GOP, and the MSM is too eager (as always) to let them frame the narrative.
trollhattan
Tapper (I know) was just putting the wood to Clyde for the moronic “tourist” remark, avec video from the day. Good, says I, we used to rely on TDS to highlight Republican misinformation.
terraformer
Such is the strength of a cult.
FelonyGovt
This is beyond belief. There is no depravity that is too low to be excused by these Republicans.
NotMax
Taking a sh*t in the rotunda – a hallowed ‘murkin tradition.
//
Other MJS
I think this gets it right:
burnspbesq
@natem:
It won’t be a footnote for the 500 or so who will do time in Federal prison after they are tried and convicted (and rest assured, they will be convicted).
Baud
I’m proud to be part of our culture and not theirs.
Another Scott
“Republicans don’t lie to be believed; they lie to be repeated.” – LOLGOP
“Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.” – Orwell, 1984.
Arguing truth or falseness with them is playing their game.
We need to be smarter, and part of that involves us addressing the emotional side of our brains.
Cheers,
Scott.
Redshift
I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised after four years of gaslighting and declarations that Russian attacks were a hoax and sympathizing with the foreign adversary that attacked us makes you a “Patriot,” but I find I still I am to some degree.
MattF
At least R politicians now have to explicitly contradict and deny the positions they took on Jan. 6. Small consolation.
Mike in NC
Good to know that Greene isn’t the worst Republican moron from Georgia. Hice and Clyde want to compete for the title, too.
Steve in the ATL
@lamh36: I am also an essential worker—without me, workers might get wage increases!
LevelB
Jody Hice and Andrew Clyde congressional districts share a common border that runs through Athens-Clarke County in Georgia, home to UGA. This city-county is geographically the smallest country in Georgia, but is deeply blue. The gerrymandering is quite possibly preventing an additional democratic congress critter from Georgia, and simultaneously enables these two nitwits to serve.
B.
Brachiator
@Other MJS:
They should play the video of the attack whenever these goobers speak.
trollhattan
@lamh36:
Howdy again, appreciate your thoughts.
I will do my best to patronize stores that continue requiring masks. It will demonstrate 1. they value their employees and 2. don’t believe in magic. So long as 40% of adults here are unvaccinated, I do not feel free as a bird to never wear one.
Other MJS
@Brachiator: Deep fake news. Or false flag operation.
trollhattan
Fox is doing their best to support vote suppression.
78% is a LOT.
Steve in the ATL
@LevelB: I never say or write Hice without including “odious” or “execrable”. If he ends up Georgia SoS, then black folks will have an even harder time voting here.
Anne Laurie
@lamh36: Good to see your nym again!
Once I can go beyond our yard again (got my second shot Monday), I’ll still be wearing a mask much of the time. But I may write ALLERGIES on mine, and not *just* because I’m allergic to stupid people…
NotMax
@Another Scott
A few additional plucked from the jumbo carton o’ quotes:
“The sound of tireless voices is the price we pay for the right to hear the music of our own opinions. But there is also, it seems to me, a moment at which democracy must prove its capacity to act. Every man has a right to be heard; but no man has the right to strangle democracy with a single set of vocal chords.”
– Adlai Stevenson, in 1952
.
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.”
– Søren Kierkegaard
.
“Whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted with important matters.”
– Albert Einstein
.
“People who are interested in power are not interested in people.”
– John Ward
.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Steve in the ATL:
Jesus. Read the room, dude.
Baud
@Another Scott:
And while the media focuses on how outrageous they are, they are not focusing on the boring important facts coming from our side.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@NotMax:
“Knowledge is good.”
-Emil Faber
?BillinGlendaleCA
@lamh36: Nice to see you again, I was thinking yesterday that we hadn’t seen you around these parts of the intertubes.
lamh36
@Anne Laurie: @?BillinGlendaleCA:
Hey!!
I’ve been super busy adjusting to new demands of my job, so I’ve been lurking mostly.
But I have been in almost regular contact with Adam and other BJ folks on social media.
I’ve got a full 2 week vacation that starts today, so at least for the next 2 weeks I’m sure to be commenting much more!
Feels like forever! How is everyone!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@NotMax: I’ve made a point to do that each time I’ve visited the Capitol, haven’t you? //
LongHairedWeirdo
Random thought: The Republican Party is dead set against admitting that slavery, the lack of post Civil War civil rights for Blacks, and even today’s white nationalism were all wrong, and evil.
They’re dead set against admitting that maybe invading Iraq (and maybe even getting involved in Afghanistan, though that was fare more defensible) was wrong and evil, especially since the case for war was made based on lies.
They’re dead set against admitting that, yeah, Trump broke the law, numerous times, and covered it all up.
They’re dead set against admitting “well, okay, sure, we sat on our hands while tens of thousands of people died, because Trump”.
With no admission of wrongdoing, with no impetus to seek redemption, is it any wonder they’ll just try to lie each of those stories away, and try to lie away another we saw with our own eyes? Admitting to having done something wrong has never been proven to help, but lying, until the questioners get exhausted, has.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Steve in the ATL: The Horror!
Geminid
@LevelB: In the last redistricting, Georgia Republicans were confident in their hold on the 6th and 7th Districts, in the northern Atlanta suburbs. That changed in 2018, when Lucy McBath won the 6th, one of 40 Democrats to flip Republican seats that year. Carolyn Bordeaux flipped the 7th last year. The upcoming redistricting will see Republicans try to gerrymander one or both of them out of their seats. They hope voter suppression will make this result certain.
Martin
@lamh36: I agree. I’m in a place where test positivity is below 1%, but its still prevalent enough that it can spread and grow. Masks are still necessary to keep case rates from rising. Right now the guidance seems to be that it’s okay to keep sending people to the ICU provided we don’t overwhelm the hospitals. I’m not okay with that. My standard is that we need to have a contact tracing system that can keep up with cases, and we aren’t there yet. Otherwise we’re just going to find ourselves idling at this level forever.
planetjanet
@lamh36: I have missed you lamh36! Welcome back. I am wary of the new guidance and don’t plan to stop wearing a mask. When do you think it is most important to continue wearing masks, other than the exceptions for healthcare settings and public transportation?
L85NJGT
I was driving through Hooterville and noticed a bunch of NO SLAUGHTER HOUSE yard signs. The only industry there is big AG, so I wondered what that was about. Maybe the bumpkins had traded Trumpism for militant animal rights activism? The lightbulb went on five miles down the road, they meant NO MEXICANS.
Steeplejack (phone)
Baud
@L85NJGT:
That’s … a vague sign.
Jeffro
take the needle off the record player, Dems…let’s go with that 1/6 commission, and let’s have it with NO crazy-ass GQPers on it to distract from its business, either.
debbie
@lamh36:
I trust your knowledge far, far more than any politicians’!
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
@Baud:
I don’t care to belong to a club that accepts people like me as members
lamh36
@planetjanet: I can tell you that my lab still is required to wear mask in the lab and on the premises of the lab.
We still do a daily temperature check as well.
It’s a lab so we already have to wear PPE (lab coat, gloves, shields in some places, etc)
My office is a “cubicle” office inside the Micro lab. When I enter the lab and go to my cubicle office and I take off my mask. When I leave my cubicle I put the mask back on. When I enter another person’s office, cubicle or 4 walled I wear my mask.
If I have a meeting and their is social distancing…I leave my mask off. If there isn’t enough room for distancing, I wear my mask.
When I exit the building, it’s an open walkway, so I take my mask off as I walk to my car.
When I go out, which I freely admit I barely went out BEFORE the pandemic, so I don’t have much reason to wear mask out. But when I go out, I wear my mask when I enter a place where I will be in any type of line.
While I’ve NEVER been one to be all up in anyone space or like anyone in my space even before pandemic, I do wear masks if I am not sure if there will be an ability to NOT be all up in someone else’s space.
I have travelled multiple times via airplane since the beginnining of the pandemic, both for work and personal…each time, I wear mask on planes and off and likely will continue to do so once the airlines stop requiring masks.
Essentially, any place where I’m not sure of precautions or that’s not open/outside, ex: Uber, planes, trains, etc. Public places with lines or without seperated booths.
I am fully vaccinated. Things I didn’t do before are the same things I wouldn’t do today, COVID or no COVID
Never been a cruise shipper.
Stopped eating buffets well before COVID.
ALWAYS been someone who did not like folks all up in my space.
Only shook hands at interviews and even then used hand sanitizer
As some recall, I’ve worked in a labs (Microbiology) for past 2 decades, HANDWASHING is a universal precaution
Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.)
I hate these fucking people.
debbie
@FelonyGovt:
Seconded.
Were no Democrats at that hearing? Was there no one to deliver that Joe McCarthy moment? “At long last, sir, have you no sense of decency?” Or is no one reporting this?
Baud
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:
The worst thing Republicans did was make us paragons of society.
Frankensteinbeck
Cleek’s Law in action. What is important to Republicans, what is the bedrock truth, is that they are Good and we are Bad. At least since 2009 they have been waging an existential war against an ultimate evil. There is no place for ever admitting they were wrong, especially in their leadership positions. Insultingly obvious lies to defend this ultimate truth are heroism.
JaneE
I would be happy to play “normal tourist” with a flagpole on his ass for a few minutes.
I may still wear a mask indoors. So far as I know the requirements haven’t changed, but I haven’t been out today yet. All the businesses have variations on “must wear mask to enter”, but I have seen little enforcement.
Being fully vaccinated, I am no longer afraid of catching Covid-19, but I am afraid of being confused with one of the non-mask-wearing a$$holes out there.
craigie
My problem with calling it a death cult is that none of them are dying.
debbie
@Brachiator:
I know Don Winslow’s been discredited, but this is one powerful video:
planetjanet
@lamh36: That all sounds good. I feel similarly. Thank you.
Mart
Trump paid no consequences lying 15,000 times over five years. Actually benefitted as so many outrageous crimes and lies hard to account for any of them. 70% of Repubs are all in on the big lie. Their leadership ain’t batshit insane or crazy. They are just following Step #1 of the Fascist playbook.
debbie
@lamh36:
What do you think about double masking?
L85NJGT
@Baud:
So I checked the “World Guardian”, and yes, it can be two things:
debbie
@Mart:
Wasn’t WaPo’s count 35,000?
ETA: It was.
Geminid
@L85NJGT: My friend Joan has a large house, and offers part of it to tourists as a guest apartment. She was telling me that zoning allowed most uses, but specifically prohibited operating a slaughterhouse. I suggested she note that in her bnb advertisement, that it might be reassuring to her prospective guests. But Joan did not see it that way. Not sure why.
LevelB
@Steve in the ATL: I honestly could not agree more. Our only hope would be that he is so incompetent that it all comes spilling out.
Roger Moore
@lamh36:
My employer has stopped doing daily temperature checks, but other than that we’re actually stricter than you are. We are required to wear a mask at all times while at work, including outdoors, except when alone in a room or eating, and there are strict rules about keeping physical distance when eating. We aren’t supposed to have in-person meetings, with or without masks. Our security department is supposed to go around checking everyone for compliance, and repeated failure to comply is a firing offense.
lamh36
@debbie: double masking…double protection.
But that’s if you can handle it. Me myself, I have actually had allergic reactions to mask since the beginning. I’ve had to get an asthmas pump for a while in the beginning. So one mask already has me wheezing…two masks would like kill me (well not really, but you know what I mean).
I also find that I breath better with surgical mask than clothes masks (for some reason I feel like I’m being suffocated with cloth masks).
I have found that one mask has been enough for me…but I undrstand folks who want both.
LevelB
@Geminid: I agree, suppression is key to their success. There are simply too many Democrats to redistrict their way out of this.
Steve in the ATL
@LevelB:
Wow—you the total opposite of my wife!
Steve in the ATL
@debbie: Don Winslow the fantastic novelist? Who took down trump big time in the conclusion of his drug cartel trilogy? What did he do to get discredited?
zhena gogolia
@debbie:
When was he discredited?
lamh36
@Roger Moore: I think as a lab building, we already practice universal precautions…period.
The addition of masks is just an added precautions. But it’s again a consequence of being a place that we are experienced with infectious disease.
debbie
@lamh36:
Yeah, my asthma is far more noticeable when I’m double masked, but it’s not intolerable yet. Worse than that was my glasses fogging up all the time in winter!
debbie
@Steve in the ATL:
I thought he was with Lincoln Project?
ETA: I was mistaken.
zhena gogolia
@debbie:
I don’t think so.
They retweet him a lot, but he’s not one of them, and I haven’t heard of anything discrediting him.
debbie
@zhena gogolia:
Huh. The videos he’s posted are very LP-like.
ETA: He does create them. A Renaissance Man!
zhena gogolia
@debbie:
I think he was doing them first.
debbie
@zhena gogolia:
I am too slow today!
Ksmiami
@Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.): people might be a stretch – prion carrying zombie Maga hordes seems more apt
Hilbertsubspace
Sounds to me like Rep. Andrew Clyde doesn’t believe the statement he’s reading.
Baud
I’m glad I’ve never been discredited. Sounds awful.
zhena gogolia
@debbie:
It’s okay — thanks for posting — it’s a great video!
Geminid
@LevelB: Republicans can only do so much through mere redistricting, in the face of demographic change and political shift. Virginia Republicans hoped they drew a map in 2011 that would maintain an 8-3 advantage in the Congressional delegation. A federal court order under the Voting Rights Act cost them the 4th, held since 2016 by the excellent Dan McEachin. In 2018, Democrats flipped the 2nd, 7th, and 11th districts. And last year, they hung on to my 5th district by only 5 points.
In Texas, Democrats Libby Fletcher and Colin Allred flipped suburban districts near Houston and Dallas in 2018, again on a Republican drawn map.
The next redistricting will be a high stakes problem for Texas Republicans. Reapportionment gives Texas two more seats, but they have 4-5 incumbents who won by single digits, including a couple who just squeaked by last November. They will want protection.
zhena gogolia
@Hilbertsubspace:
What I’m trying to figure out is the strap across his chest — is that a gun holster?
zhena gogolia
@Baud:
Are you sure about that?
sab
@lamh36: You have been missed! Thanks for the mask advice.
I think I will continue to mask in public inside because I really enjoyed my year without colds and the flu. The handwashing probably did as much as the mask, but the mask keeps my paws off my face until I get home.
I have various masks with slogans, some lecturing and some friendly. My favorite friendly mask: “Snack Prevention Device.” Who could complain about that?
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
I’m pretty certain I’ve never had enough credit to dis.
zhena gogolia
@Baud:
If I knew your real name I’d google you and report back to the blog.
J R in WV
@lamh36:
Good to hear from you Lamh, hope you are liking Houston pretty well. Glad to hear your common-sense advice on masks.
We plan to continue wearing masks for the foreseeable future, esp when in commercial crowds. Vaccination rate here in WV is not where one would hope to see it.
Good friend and classmate from attending Marshall who worked in big pharma for years running clinical studies has come home and is working in a DHHR lab here, learning more about working with DNA.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
That’s why you don’t know my real name! I don’t want to be discredited!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Can’t be credited either.
Hilbertsubspace
@zhena gogolia:
Some holsters do strap across the chest like that, so…. maybe?
Geminid
@zhena gogolia: Any association with the Lincoln Project is now considered discreditable by many. Unpaid “Senior Advisors” like Tom Nichols and Rachel Bitecofer get tarred with the Lincoln project brush. But I think this is done by people with axes to grind.
Steve in the ATL
@?BillinGlendaleCA: ”an Alan Smithee film”
Chetan Murthy
@Anne Laurie:
Oh yeah, that *works*.
Baud
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Same difference.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I vaguely recall Maher being, if not full-on anti-vaxxer, at least anti-vax curious. Was he anti-vax about Covid? If so, might I chortle heartily?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: “New Rules!”.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
He’s ruining our stats.
dmsilev
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: According to the next tweet in that thread, he’s vaccinated. Tested positive, but not showing any symptoms.
The Thin Black Duke
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Karma is a motherf*cker.
Baud
@dmsilev:
J&J? Someone said that happens with that shot.
Roger Moore
@Geminid:
The thing to watch out with gerrymandering is that there are two effects. One is a broad shift in voting patterns, which is hard to undo. The other is a bunch of small, local shifts that tend to undermine a specific gerrymander while still leaving a situation that can be gerrymandered at the next redistricting. If a gerrymander falls apart over the course of a decade, it’s important to figure out why. If it’s falling apart because of A, it’s likely to be difficult for the party that did the gerrymandering to do it as effectively, but if it’s because of B they may be able to pull it off again.
Virginia looks like it’s solidly in case A. The biggest thing is that the Democrats did well enough that the Republicans won’t be in a position to gerrymander. That’s the desired end game. But states like Texas and Georgia may not be so lucky. There’s been demographic shift there, but the Republicans can still control the redistricting, and that may put them in position to undo some of the Democratic advances that are a result of local shifts.
dmsilev
@Baud: No idea. I read the two tweets; that’s all the effort that I’m willing to put into researching the question.
Another Scott
@Baud:
STATNews from April:
Early on we learned that PCR tests are extraordinarily sensitive – even to virus fragments that cannot cause infection.
We still don’t know a lot about this disease. But we do know that 1) no test is 100% accurate; 2) no vaccine is 100% effective; 3) the vaccines are extraordinarily effective at saving lives and preventing hospitalization.
Cheers,
Scott.
divF
@lamh36:
Good to see you again !
Given your line of work, I am particularly not surprised at these two.
MomSense
@lamh36:
I’m with you. I plan to continue to wear my mask. Two of my cousins are public health officials and I have been the sounding board for one of them throughout. My other cousin was moved back to the CDC in Atlanta when his pandemic response team was disbanded by TFG. I’ve heard enough to know this thing is not over.
Roger Moore
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Not much risk of that.
Roger Moore
@Another Scott:
Somebody needs some statistical tutoring. An infection rate of 1% after vaccination is completely consistent with the vaccine being 95% effective. ETA: He also needs to read that study more carefully. The vast majority of the healthcare workers who tested positive did so in the period before they were considered fully vaccinated: 379 tested positive at some point after their first shot, but only 7 at least 15 days after their second shot.
Geminid
@Roger Moore: By a state constitutional amendment, approved a second time last November, Virginia has placed redistricting in the hands of an independent commission. It is supposed to act neutrally. I am especially interested in how the commision treats the 5th district, since I live there. Just ironing out the kink that has the boundary jump off the Blue Ridge so as to put the city of Lynchburg in the 6th District would make the 5th more winnable for a Democrat. If it were up to me, though, I would just combine the northern halves of the 5th and 6th to make a more compact district with the southern boundary along the James River.
I am told by someone interested in running for the seat that the final Census numbers may not be given in time to draw new districts for 2022. I am not sure if this is so.
As it is, this November’s House of Delegates races will be held on the old map drawn by Republicans in 2011, (aside from 11 districts out of 100 redrawn in 2019 because of a federal court order under the Voting Rights Act). On that map, Democrats picked up 14 seats in 2017, and 6 more in 2019, going from down 65-35 to up 55-45.
Colorado, which like Virginia has a blue legislature, is also going to an independent commission. That state will gain a seat through reapportionment. Both Colorado and Virginia seem to have gone from purple to blue over the past decade, at least in statewide and Presidential elections.
Georgia redistricting could be problematic for Democrats. There are two new Democratic Democratic Congresswomen the Republicans will want to take out. But they may need voter suppression on top of gerrymandering to make that happen. And the courts and the U.S. Congress could block some of these efforts.
Redistricting will be a major battleground this fall and winter, in blue as well as red states. New York and Illinois are two states where Democrats may gerrymander Republican incumbents out.
Ohio is especially interesting; it is going to some form of an independent commission. I noticed that one of the sponsors of a permitless concealed law say that it was now or never for this crappy law, because the next state legislature would have more Democrats.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
The only reason Bill Maher has covid is because we’re testing. If he wasn’t tested, he wouldn’t have covid.
Geminid
@Roger Moore: Virginia has gone from red to purple to blue in the last twenty years. I think there were two contributors to this trend. One is demographic change: the state has more first and second generation immigrants, and an ever increasing proportion of college educated. The latter group voted majority Republican 50 years ago, but now more and more tracks Democratic.
The second reason, I believe, is the hard right turn the Republican party has made. Moderates just aren’t buying what the Republicans are selling these days, even conservative leaning moderates. At least according to Wason Center polling of registered Virginia voters.
These trends vary within the state, and interact with redistricting. They have more or less similar effects in Georgia and Texas, in that the VA7th district flipped by Abigail Spanberger in 2018 has much in common with the Georgia district won by Lucy McBath, and the suburban Texas districts flipped by Libbie Fletcher and Colin Allred.
Another Scott
@Geminid:
repost – BlueVirginia.US:
The Census data was released on April 26 – 1-2 weeks later than the above discussion in January assumed. I see no reason to conclude that Surovell is wrong.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@Another Scott: Well, I wouldn’t say Surovell is wrong either. But what exactly is he saying? About this year’s state elections, and next year’s Congressional elections?
Miss Bianca
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: “Real Time” gettin’ real-er, I guess!
Another Scott
@Geminid: He’s saying the Census results being delayed messes up the redistricting in Virginia so that there’s going to have to be another election after the final boundaries are drawn (because the people elected this fall won’t be representing the proper districts once the lines move next year). Elections are typically held after the lines are re-drawn by the reapportionment.
Cheers,
Scott.
WaterGirl
@Another Scott: Is that good for us or bad for us?
SuzieC
@debbie: Discredited why? More than the Orange Shitgibbon has been discredited?
I’ve read most of Winslow’s novels. He is a brilliant writer.
Geminid
@Another Scott: I’ve read that the more exact census information needed to draw districts will not be delivered until August. So this November’s elections will have to be run on the old map. So there will be a second set of elections next year?Will the General Assembly have a say?
And will the redistricting committee have sufficient time to draw Congressional districts? I figured they would, but an attorney with an interest in this question told me that was not likely.
Mary G
@lamh36: I saw your tweet that you were taking two weeks off and meant to ask if you’re going somewhere or having a staycation around home and NOLA?
Glad to see you are getting a good long break. Your work must be very stressful with Covid and then all the people who have delayed procedures but now feel safe and want it done yesterday.
planetjanet
@Geminid:
There is no second set of elections. The next regular cycle, will use the new maps, just not this year.
Geminid
@Another Scott: Well, it’s obvious from my comment you referenced that I knew this year’s House of Delegates would be held on the old map because the Census data would not be delivered in time. But is a second round of elections in 2022 a certainty? It seems like 2023 will be here soon enough, although I guess an extra election could be a statutory requirement.
But I’m just asking these questions out loud. I have some spare time tomorrow to do a little research.
And now, another commenter has told me there won’t be a second set of elections. That does seem a more pragmatic course.
planetjanet
@WaterGirl:
It is unknown what the independent commission will do. So for now, we have the Republican-drawn districts.
Fair Economist
@Another Scott:
That seems odd, because it’s true in *every* election. Even the one immediately after the census has had some people shifting over that span of time. If the delayed redistricting is part of some district manipulation plan, OK, it’s a part of a possibly unconstitutional manipulation but that’s not the case here.
dww44
@Mike in NC: yup. Look at Clyde’s Wiki bio. He was born in Canada. A navy veteran. He has definitely drunk the Kool Aid.
planetjanet
@Fair Economist: I can not think of a case where a judge ordered new elections. After new maps are drawn, they will be used at the next regular cycle.
Geminid
@Geminid: I really hope, though, that the new commission has the time to redraw Virginia’s congressional districts for 2022. The Republican incumbent won last November by only 5 points. A more neutrally drawn district would help the Democrat candidate a lot. Just putting Lynchburg where it belongs geographically would help.
But like I said earlier, if the commission really applies the principle of compactness, the northern halves of both the 5th and the 6th would be combined. They both have long, narrow prolongations to the north. The 5th runs from Danville to Fauquier County, 35 miles from D.C. I joke that it resembles a brontosaurus with its feet on the North Carolina bordr, its neck starting at Charlottesville, and it’s head getting ready to eat Fredericksburg.
I think a combination of the northern halves into one district would have its southern border around the James. But I suspect the commission will play small ball, and make more incremental adjustments.
Another Scott
@Geminid: Surovell is a lawyer and a smart cookie. I assume that he knows what he’s talking about when he talks about the likely effect of the Census data delay on the Virginia state elections in 2021 and House races in 2022. Ebbin is a smart cookie too.
Presumably the state courts will get involved to address any constitutional issues about the districts and who holds the seats.
That’s all I know/believe. IANAL.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@Another Scott: Part of the confusion (which I may have caused) is the fact that we have state districts and the federal districts for the US House. The Census affects how each of those redistricting efforts. Virginia has elections this fall and normally they would be based on new state districts from the 2020 Census data. That data will not be ready in time, so people running this fall will be running based on the old boundaries. So (apparently, from equal-protection requirements) new state elections will be required in 2022 after the new state districts are finally ready.
At least that’s my understanding of Surovell’s argument.
The US House districts in Virginia won’t be the same as the Virginia House of Delegates districts, but they’re informed by the same Census numbers.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@Another Scott: The General Assembly may have a say, too. But now I am curious, and will do some research. Now that the first load of Census information is in, maybe this story has developed some more.
I also want to find out when the commission starts to meet. I think the members have been selected, but the staff will be important too. If it were up to me, I’d get a totally apolitical programmer to create an algorithm that kept districts compact and as much as possible did not divide political jurisdictions. .Then I’d feed in the census data and let the chips fall where they may. But that might shake things up too much. And the tesult has to conform to protections of minority voters, under the Voting Rights Act. The commission will probably take an incremental approach.
Besides Virginia, Colorado also has a novel redistricting commission. And Ohio, which loses a seat, has some new method of redistricting that I have not researched. That may be the most consequential, as Ohio is very gerrymandered. I know one Republican Ohio state legislator said that the next legislature would be more Democratic, so the permitless concealed carry bill he proposed has to be passed this session.
Geminid
@Another Scott: Surovell may get to make his argument in court. A resident in an overpoulated Delagate or Senate district in say, Loudon County could bring a lawsuit under the equal protection clause. And the Virginia Attorney General could too, I guess. The Republicans would take the other side, probably. Because the Census is so late, it’s a novel situation.
Another Scott
Because of course he did.
:-/
(via CharlesPPierce)
Cheers,
Scott.
joel hanes
@lamh36:
REALLY glad to see you back.
I think that some of the LGM commenters were asking just last week where you’d gone.
WaterGirl
@planetjanet: Thank you. I wan’t thinking about the fact that Virginia turned blue only relatively recently.
Uncle Cosmo
The best way for an incumbent to vaccinate against this sort of maneuver is to build and implement a superb constituent services operation, and use it to serve all their constituents, not just the ones they know voted for them. **
People remember with gratitude that their Congressperson helped them with {fill in the blank}, and they tell their friends. Regardless of party affiliation.
** Arguably a major factor in the odious Susan Collins’ escape from the political dustbin last year.