Presumably he will be speaking on the ceasefire expected to go into effect in an hour or two. To start at 45 minutes past the hour.
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Presumably he will be speaking on the ceasefire expected to go into effect in an hour or two. To start at 45 minutes past the hour.
Comments are closed.
Baud
I know Biden has been hewing to the traditional US line on Isreal, but as matter of domestic politics, the GOP would be lauding TFG as a peacemaker if a cease fire had occured on his watch.
Not sure what the right approach is for us.
Warblewarble
“seen the needless and the damage done”
Baud
ruemara
How about stop fucking sending weapons to Israel and stop giving them money? We need to get out of the mindset that Israel is an underdog here. They are very powerful despite their size and they are committing genocide.
geg6
I heard the cease fire will begin at 2 am? Is that our time or theirs?
Cheryl Rofer
@geg6: Theirs
geg6
@ruemara:
THIS. Goddamn it, this.
geg6
@Cheryl Rofer:
Thanks for the clarification!
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer:
An hour from now. (I googled).
Butter emails
@ruemara:
I’m of the opinion this should stop, but not under the illusion it would do anything. Cutting off precision weaponry and support for the Iron Dome might even raise civilian casualties on both sides.
Fair Economist
@ruemara: I don’t understand why Biden approved the sale *now*. He could have put it off for a few weeks at least and released it after the Israelis did something less bad.
Cheryl Rofer
Welp. There seem to be problems with all the live feeds. Here’s the Twitter feed, but it’s not working for me.
Cheryl Rofer
This is working.
Cheryl Rofer
Short speech and I missed the middle half. Takes no questions.
Ruckus
@ruemara:
You are making way too much sense here. How will our war machine making manufacturing make any money if we don’t give their output to some country that seems like it can’t exist if it isn’t blowing up houses and killing children?
CaseyL
(The reply button isn’t working for me, but it could be the computer I’m on.)
Fair Economist – Jen Psaki emphasized, a lot, that there were intensive negotiations happening behind the scenes. It is possible, just possible, that the weapons deal was Biden’s one and only lever to use: declare a cease fire, or the deal doesn’t go through. Now that the cease fire happened, we have to release the arms. (I am totally speculating, here.)
Yutsano
@Ruckus: Pfft. The Saudis will always have their hands out for our latest hardware.
Baud
@CaseyL:
There’s almost certainly behind the scenes stuff going on.
Geminid
I’m glad the situation with Lebanon stayed quiet. Hezbollah has ten times the rockets Hamas has, and many are bigger and more accurate.
Chief Oshkosh
The speech was fairly straightforward. Lots of praise for the Presidents of the PA and Egypt and their negotiators. Lots of blah blah blah about Israel’s right to exist and defend itself.
Not sure if I understand what the word “defend” means anymore…
In any event, the big take home for me was the dog that didn’t bark in the night. There was little to no mention of Bibi. It was such a glaring gap (to me anyway) that I wondered in the moment whether some serious pressure was put on Bibi. I hope Uncle Joe brought the pain, but then, I’m a cockeyed optimist.
Also, the speech was so short and declarative that it was almost like Biden saying “Shit happened. We fixed it. Everybody better do what I told them to do or I’ll know why.”
We’ll see.
Baud
@Chief Oshkosh:
It is a big deal if Biden didn’t mention BiBi.
Chief Oshkosh
@Baud: Hopefully I got that right. I was eating, working, and listening at the same time. I just never heard “and in partnership will PM Netanyahu…” although I think “Prime Minister” was mentioned once.
Cheryl Rofer
@CaseyL:
@Chief Oshkosh:
Joe Biden was the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for I don’t know how long. He knows how to do this stuff, and most of it will be behind the scenes. Calling Bibi out earlier could have made things worse. I can only speculate about the details, too.
Biden does not tweet out his every move, and he shouldn’t. In four years of chaos, it’s been easy to forget that diplomacy is hardly ever carried out in public. I’ve been working on a post along those lines for domestic politics. International politics is a little different, but the principles are similar. I’ll have the post up tomorrow, maybe tonight.
WaterGirl
I thought that just yesterday Bibi told Biden to fuck off and that Biden “isn’t the boss of me”?
Geminid
@Chief Oshkosh: A few days before the most recent Israeli election, the United Arab Emirates declined to make some accomodation with Netanyahu that might have bolstered his political prospects. The U.A.E. foreign minister emphasized that they had made a peace treaty with a nation, not a person.
WaterGirl
@Baud:
Move along, nothing to see here.
I guess proportionality isn’t a thing if you’re Israel.
WaterGirl
@ruemara: Totally agree.
Tony Jay
@Geminid:
Netanyahu’s electoral ambitions only needed a routine shedding of Palestinian blood, enough to give his Base a warm glow and force the Arab-Israeli parties out of the opposing coalition, but nothing that might trigger a wider regional conflict that would make him look ‘reckless’.
What a guy. An absolutely quality human being. I’m so glad the UK has a Government proud to call itself his friend and ally.
ruemara
@WaterGirl: Gotta be honest, that’s the damned truth. IDK if he said it, but it’s true. Israel has been calling the US their dog for a while. It’s disgusting, but it’s true.
JPL
@Tony Jay: In a perfect world, trump and bibi would be side by side on trial in Nuremberg.
WaterGirl
@ruemara: Bibi didn’t use those exact words, but yeah, that’s pretty much what he said.
We’re not Israel’s protector anymore, they are basically blackmailing the US, with the absolutely
cooperationactive involvement of the republican party.WaterGirl
@JPL: I don’t think I could sneak that one by Cole, as a rotating tag, but damn that’s tempting.
debbie
@Baud:
There is, but no matter. Israel needs to be cut off completely until Netanyahu is gone.
The world standing by while Jewish settlers individually and directly evict Palestinians from their homes with zero consequences from the Israeli government is no different than standing by doing nothing was back in the 1930s. We all know how that turned out.
Netanyahu provoked Hamas into this war by letting those settlers evict Palestinians and beat up Israeli Arabs. He did what Putin did in provoking the second Chechen War. These are war crimes, period.
Omnes Omnibus
@JPL: In a truly perfect world, neither would have ever held any power.
Chief Oshkosh
@Chief Oshkosh: Meh, I was wrong. The one Biden quote ABC showed specifically states PM Netanyahu.
Still, it was just the one instance, and wasn’t effusive as he was with the PA and Egypt.
Maybe just wishful thinking on my part.
I seriously hope Bibi steps on a rake…in one of his own minefields.
Baud
@debbie:
I’m not sure what can take him down. The opposition just can’t seem to break through.
Baud
@Chief Oshkosh:
Thanks for the update.
Tony Jay
@JPL:
The location might be a bit on the noise, but yeah, that is traditionally where the civilised world tries and convicts people who commit crimes against humanity.
As an aside, I remain genuinely shocked that Trump never tried to involve the U.S. in a nippy little foreign adventure he could soak for military ‘glory’ and his own Mission Accomplished moment. I can only assume that any temptation he felt in that regard got stomped on by Putin who, if he were to allow his pet to play tin-pot generalissimo, would have specified a long, grinding and financially draining quagmire far from anywhere Russia exerts influence, and even Trump wasn’t quite that stupid.
geg6
@Butter emails:
Precision weaponry?!?!?!? The more precise to kill kids, their mothers and their grandparents, I guess. How about they fend for themselves, as we’ve done for Palestinians who they are precisely bombing and killing? Immoral and disgusting. The Israelis have become what they fled.
WaterGirl
@geg6: Yep. The abused has become the abuser. It’s sickening.
CaseyL
@Baud: I think the opposition can’t make headway because they’re splintered – some are nationalists, just a kinder gentler version; some want to go back to the kibbutz-based socialism of 50 years ago; very few are actually “Pro-Palestinian.”
Also, I think the best and brightest of Israel’s youth, who don’t want to live in a nationalist, RW, corrupt, quasi-theocratic state, have fled for other countries. Which means there is very little in the way of young people to be in, or to vote for, the opposition.
debbie
@Butter emails:
Israel has not used the precision weaponry it has. Israel has the ability to target and hit a specific apartment, yet chose to flatten an entire 12-story apartment building. If anything, Israel has too much weaponry of all kinds.
Baud
@CaseyL:
I didn’t know about the youth flight.
debbie
@Baud:
Putting him on trial and convicting him of abuses of his office. That will take him down.
debbie
@geg6:
He’s determined to turn Gaza into Warsaw Ghetto II.
Baud
@debbie:
As I understand it, he can’t be put on trial unless he loses the election.
ruemara
@debbie: Exactly. They targeted a covid specialist and his entire family, for God’s sake! This is evil.
debbie
@Baud:
Yeah, and I guess no one’s even trying to form a government at this point.
geg6
@debbie:
Yep. And not just him. Pretty much all non-Arab Israelis.
Yutsano
The Democrats need to burn AIPAC. It’s time to walk away from the major influencer in both parties that distorts American politicians on Israel. AIPAC needs to start backing off as it’s an explicit supporter of the apartheid state and Netanyahu. It’s time to start that demand from Democratic politicians. Support from AIPAC supports the Israeli apartheid regime. Oh and fuck Bibi.
Chief Oshkosh
@Baud: Just anecdotal. I know 6 Israeli-born people, 5 have advanced degrees. None plan to return to Israel, ever. Small sample, but it’s all I got.
Minstrel Michael
When I was a kid in the ’60s, my family identified as “Conservative” Jews, midway between Orthodox and Reform. My parents sent me to Sunday school, where I learned enough Hebrew to recite the most common prayers, but never got to the conversation stage. One thing I did then, which I did because I was supposed to, was bring a dime out of my allowance and put it in the collection box to “make the Negev bloom.” (That never actually happened, and now I want my dimes back. They were made of real silver in those days!)
For a long time I stuck with a kneejerk defensiveness about Israel, based on the unmistakable bad faith of their enemies– all of whom actually like the Palestinians being victimized, because it draws Israel’s attention away from them, and for their propaganda value. And I thought kibbutzes were a way cool alternative to factory farms– we should incorporate some here!
But I just can’t any more. Bibi is Arafat trying to channel Groucho Marx, and there will never again be a Rabin. Now I say cut them off.
Plus if we cut off Israel, we can stop arming the House of Saud too!
JMG
Chief Oshkosh
@JMG: 1. Biden has surprised me so far. Maybe that will continue. 2. Agreed and more, as they also see them as a market for our MIC. 3. Sadly, agreed.
Ohio Mom
Chief Oshkosh @51:
Sometime back in the early 2000’s, a right-wing Jew in my circle of acquaintances told me the Palestians had a terrible brain drain, the smartest ones all leave the area to live elsewhere and so Israel has no one fit to negotiate with.
That was the moment I instantly understood that Israel was losing its best and brightest to emigration.
Geminid
@debbie: Netanyahu is trial for three counts of corruption. But knowledgeable observers say that what with the snail like trial tempo and appeals, it will take two years for the process to conclude. And unless Yesh Atid party leader Yair Lapid succeeds in forming a narrow parliamentery majority, Netanyahu will be Prime Minister through another election in the fall.
Netanyahu’s current coalition government was ratified by a law passed by the Knesset, so Netanyahu is stuck with “Blue and White” politicians controlling the Defense, Foreign, and Justice ministries. He precipitated the last election in hopes he could get rid of Gantz and company. The Blue and White Justice Minister had been a particular thorn in Netanyahu’s. side.
Lapid is unlikely to succeed in forming a government. So the Israelis will likely shuffle the deck and deal again in a November election. Some say this Gaza war will give Netanyahu enough of a bump to finally achieve a majority. He and his Likud Party have lost strength the last two elections, though, so that is not a given. But the U.S., the Israelis, the Palestinians, and the region will be stuck with Netanyahu for at least the rest of this year.
Geminid
@JMG: “Simply” ethnically cleansing the Ocupied territories would not be a simple task. Gaza has 1.85 million residents, and the West Bank has well over 2 million. How is Israel going to accomplish that? It would be an impossible task, and most Jewish Israelis know it. The Israelis know they have to live with the Arabs. The problem is, the Israelis want to do it on their terms.
CaseyL
@Minstrel Michael: @JMG:
I was that kid, too. One of my most vivid memories of my pre-teens is going to temple the night Israel won the 6-Day War.
Took a long time for me to overcome my youthful, idealistic Zionism. Getting from that loss, to writing the entire country off took considerably less time.
But I’m in my 60s, not my 70s/80s like Biden, Pelosi and Schumer. It’s probably harder for them to adjust to what Israel has become; they also have decades of “our closest Mid-East ally!” conditioning to overcome.
debbie
@CaseyL:
I was raised Reform. I remember being shown a silent film in Sunday School, supposedly smuggled out of Germany by Russians, of the unearthing of mass graves of Jews murdered by Nazis. It was sometime around the 1967 war, and I instinctively knew the rabbi et al. were trying to radicalize the Confirmation class. Even then, I was cynical. I also got in a shouting match with a guy soliciting funds for children in Israel in the early 1970s. I refused to help because I knew the funds would be used to buy guns. It was the first time I was accused of anti-Semitism, but certainly not the last.
Abnormal Hiker
@Minstrel Michael: re making Negev bloom: I remember Tsvi Gal-Chen showing a satellite image ca 1980 in which the Israeli-Egyptian border was clearly visible and saying “That’s why I’m a Zionist”. So maybe you got your dimes worth.
Chief Oshkosh
What might the impact be of the US becoming less dependent on petroleum-based power? If we magically go renewal, how do you think this will alter our relationship with Saudia Arabia and Israel?
Matt McIrvin
@CaseyL: I still hear people giving the argument that Israel needs all the land in the occupied territories because one tank thrust out of Jordan or Syria will tear the country apart otherwise, so opposing the occupation and ethnic cleansing of the territories is exactly equivalent to wishing for the destruction of Israel.
I’m no geostrategic expert but it sounds bad-faith to me. “Not committing these atrocities is exactly the same thing as being driven into the sea!” This sounds like the bills of goods George W. Bush kept selling and I know what happened then.
raven
Multiple dead threads. Some weenie can’t wait to say *)_{_)I{kew
Gvg
I do remember all through the 70’s and 80’s how it seemed like the Palestinian leaders were terrible people and not too smart as well. They seemed hopeless to deal with even though their people clearly needed help. I think that gave Israel an advantage for quite some time, but now their own leaders are just as bad. I don’t see a good solution.
Subsole
@Tony Jay:
Where does that come from?
Here in America it’s the More Jesus Than Jesus crew, who live in cringing fear that the Son of Man will lock them out of Country Club Heaven if they utter a word against Israel. (The fact they kill Ay-rabs is a nice little bonus.)
Is there something similar in England, or is it a different axis? Was not aware of any big religious power blocs with that kind of pull over in the Merry Isle.
Yutsano
@Matt McIrvin: I used to be stupid enough to believe that the Palestinians were supposed to get Jordan and Israel was supposed to have the West Bank as Judea and Samaria. I now know that was Zionist propaganda. I’m watching what Israel is turning into in horror and disgust. It’s mostly because I really had hope that there would be a free, tolerant Jewish homeland for us. Maybe it was all a lie from the beginning. I don’t know anymore.
Subsole
@Baud: Isn’t this like the third election ol’ Bibs has No-Selled because he didn’t like the result?
Elizabelle
@raven: An open thread would be nice.
Lyrebird
@WaterGirl:
I’m definitely not trying to justify what the Israeli govt has just done, especially since most of what I know comes from Adam and Cheryl anyhow. Just gonna say that “proportionality” in these conflicts is really hard to compare because Israel has and uses bomb shelters. Their death tolls would be totally different, including Muslim and Christian Israelis, without the shelters.
Again, I think Israel’s in the wrong on everything laid out in Adam’s post and more, and I also think they owe Lebanon big reparations. I’m just a pedant doing my pedantic thing.
Ken
@Abnormal Hiker: Google satellite view suggests they stopped watering sometime in the last forty years.
Subsole
@Tony Jay: Simpler than that.
America’s military is badly overextended, and has been for a decade now. ANY foreign involvement would be a quagmire that makes him look weak.
Also, he’s too stupid to understand who we’d be fighting. Anything more complex than “dip the bullets in pig blood” won’t fit in his nasty little pea brain.
If he doesn’t know who the bad guys are he cannot have a big, burly guy in one of those funny green hats like John Wayne wore, big, huuuge muscles, sir, come up with tears sir in his big, huge, muscley sir eyes, and thank him sir for killing them, sir.
Geminid
@Matt McIrvin: You could make a good argument that Israel needs a defensive border at the Jordan River. There has not been a threat from the east since 1967, but that can change. But there is no security necessity for Israel to control the other 95% of the West Bank, and repress the Palestinians who live there.
Villago Delenda Est
@geg6: Bibi needs to kill some more kids to appease his MIGA morans.
Bill Arnold
[I’ll refrain from commenting on Mr Netanyahu. Been falsely called out as an antisemite for such in other … venues. Those ones can FOAD. ]
Does anyone know how the Israelis managed to map the Gaza Hamas tunnel system? Did they root some smart phones and use the accelerometer for statistical dead reckoning?
Or was it lower tech (like a paper map or similar) or human compromise?
(Also: “Terror Tunnels” vs bunkers. “Suicide Drones” vs cruise missiles. etc. The Israeli media I can understand, but non-Israeli media should not cooperate.)
Bill Arnold
@Geminid:
Another change is that Israel is a major nuclear power. Nobody (excepting perhaps the US and Russia) would win a conflict against them, or rather, any adversary would need to accept the high probability of nuclear retaliation (perhaps not prompt).
Geminid
@Subsole: Netanyahu did not like the result, because he could not get a majority coalition of compliant partners. No one else could get one either. But if the last rocket of this war landed on Netanyahu tonight, there could be a government led by Likud as soon as Lapid’s mandate expired. There are two right wing parties that refuse to join a government led by Netanyahu. Likud defector Gideon Saar, leader of New Hope, has worked with Netanyahu, and considers him a dangerously self-interested liar. Russian immigrant Avigdor Lieberman, leader the Yisrael Beitanyu party, has also worked with Netanyahu, and hates his guts. These two would join a coalition with a Likud-without-Netanyahu, but that would likely be a more right wing goverment than the present one.
Ruckus
@Tony Jay:
I’d bet that shitforbrains thought that if he did anything militarily, the military would get the credit and so it had no value to him.
That and his keeper Vlad probably figured he’d fuck up any military action like he fucked up everything else and why take the chance that shitforbrains starts WWIII, with who knows, say a nuclear attack on Rostov.
Geminid
@Bill Arnold: Shin Bet has agents among the Gazans, and they probably helped. The Israelis fly drones over Gaza and get a lot information through them too.Archeologists here map sites using drones with earth penetrating radar.
Ruckus
@CaseyL:
I’m in my 70s and it’s not hard at all for me to see what Israel has become at the hands of Netanyahu. Now I’m not a politician but the reality is that any national politician should be able to see the 100 ft tall writing of what he represents for the people of Israel and how the world has changed over the last few decades.
Subsole
@Geminid: I see. Thanks for explaining.
Parliamentary systems have their drawbacks, too, it seems.
CaseyL
@Ruckus: And Ariel Sharon before Netanyahu… but Netanyahu was the death knell of any hope of peace. He explicitly and with malice aforethought broke the Oslo Accords.
Matt McIrvin
@Tony Jay: As far as I can tell, Trump sincerely did not want to involve the US in any new foreign war. It’s the thing that endears him to the anti-anti-Trump pseudo-left, people who mostly got their “left” credentials from the Bush-era antiwar movement.
Ruckus
@Subsole:
Anything having to do with humans will likely have faults for some other humans. Most of us have a tendency to think that everyone else is on the same page, when usually we aren’t even reading the same book, or possibly any book at all.
Geminid
@Subsole: Israel’s system is especially problematic. Parties run slates nationwide. If a party gets 10% of the vote, the top 12 candidates on it’s slate win Knesset seats. A party failing to clear a 3.25% threshold gets none.
In the last election, thirteen parties cleared the threshold. Right wing Likud got 28 MKs, centrist Yesh Atid won 18, Sephardic religious party Shas got 8, and centrist Kahol Lavan got 8 also. Nine other parties including religious, secular Jewish, and Arab, won between 4 and 7 MKs. The animosity towards Netanyahu kept him from getting more than 58 out of 61 MKs required. Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid is disliked also, and very likly will fail. So, another election will be held in November after the Jewish holidays of Rash Hashona and Yom Kippur. This would be the 5th in 30 months, I believe.
Calouste
@Geminid: It’s Israel that’s problematic, not the system. The Netherlands have the same system, even a little bit more extreme (150 seats and a threshold of 1 seat or 0.67%), but they get functioning coalitions out of it most of the time.
It is comparable to how Belgium has a similar system as Portugal and Spain (proportional representation by province), but where the latter two tend to form coalitions fairly quickly, in Belgium it typically takes ages because they have Dutch-speaking and French-speaking versions of all major parties.
Tony Jay
@Subsole:
Dead thread, but since I just woke up and my coffee is cooling.
It was a high price to pay to ensure the top 1% didn’t have to pay a few pence more in tax, but as a member of the Labour Party I’m not allowed to discuss that without risking expulsion.
Geminid
@Calouste: There are certainly problems unique to Israel that that go beyond it’s system of proportional representation. There is a large ultra-orthodox, or Haredi, population whose members turn out in large numbers and vote for whomever their rabbis tell them to. The Arab population, nearly 20%, votes for Arab parties that are shunned by the Jewish parties when it comes to forming coalitions. Support for the liberal Jewish parties has collapsed in the last 20 years. Meretz and Labor won only 11 or 12 MKs between them this last election, and that was considered a comeback.
In the past, Israel has functioned like the European countries you describe. The many parties have always been able to form coalitions. But a large problem now is Netanyahu. His Likud party still elects the most MKs, but they have gone from the mid 30s to the high 20s. Netanyahu still has a core of loyal supporters. But conservative politicians like Likud defector Gideon Saar have have concluded that Netanyahu is a corrupt liar, who puts his personal interest ahead of the national interest, and adamantly oppose bim as Prime Minister. Centrist and liberal party leaders view Netanyahu similarly.
The system of proportional representation exacerbates this political gridlock, and that was what I was saying. Israelis are stuck with it, though, just as the British are stuck with their borough based, party dominated parliamentery system. Ironically, the Iraqis have a system similar to Israel’s, and have similar difficulty forming governments.
Our system has it’s own problems, but has two advantages: people know who their Representative or Senator is, and vote for or against them, not some national slate. And the party apparatus does not pick candidates; voters chose them in primaries run by the states.
Geminid
@Tony Jay: Your system is very different than ours. The Democrats are not a membership party, and I cannot be expelled. And voters will choose the next Democratic candidate for my 5th Virginia District Congressman, not some party commitee. The Democratic party apparatus may have an administrative role, but it has no power in it’s own right.
Geminid
@Calouste: I would point out one important difference between Belgium and the Netherlands, on the one hand, and Israel on the other. The two northern European countries can afford gridlock. They are in a very peaceful corner of the world, with effective bureaucracies that can keep governance functioning on autopilot while the parties sort out their differences. Their most pressing issues are minor compared to those at play in Israeli politics. Israel has real, major problems that have to be solved, but cannot even be addressed in it’s current state of political gridlock.
As for Spain, it took 15 months and two elections to produce it’s current government. And that is a two party, inherently unstable minority coalition.
debbie
@CaseyL:
Netanyahu was the first Israeli leader to openly defy israel’s primary benefactor and supporter. I think that’s a bridge that will never be mended.