President Joe Biden was a senator for 36 years. He has seen horse-trading. He has seen comity with segregationists. He has seen deadlock and filibusters. He has seen bipartisanship. He has seen Newt Gingrich’s power grab. He has seen Mitch McConnell’s obstructionism.
He knows how the Senate and the House work.
One of the things he learned is that nothing happens quickly in the Senate, particularly when the margin is as close as it is now. But there are ways. Those ways are not played out in the public eye. They involve quiet talks and promises, agreement and respect. Some of these things may even be feigned. But feigning respect, for example, is itself a way of showing respect.
None of these tactics was useful in an administration devoted to one man’s whims. The old ways decayed even before that, under Gingrich’s and his successors’ scorched-earth politics. Reporters who grew up since Gingrich do not recognize that other tactics exist. They do not recognize that relationships are built and doubts sowed behind the scenes. They are accustomed to tantrums and sudden shows of power. They do not have the tools to describe the wide array of tactics Biden brings with him.
Ulrike Franke wrote a piece about younger German policy analysts that overlaps with what I’m describing. It’s not just German.
I think we are beginning to see results of Biden’s tactics. It’s early, but there is a premium on being the first to point things out.
Thirty-five House Republicans voted to form a commission to investigate the January 6 attack on the Capitol.
Every time there’s a defining vote, including both impeachments, Trump keeps losing a greater number of Republicans in each new episode. A math-minded person could chart it! 1 yes (Romney in Impeachment #1; next time ten House members+7 Senators; now 35 House members.
Paul Ryan, former Republican Speaker of the House, is holding a fundraiser for Adam Kinzinger, one of the 35.
That is how to move the Senate too. A few at a time. As one senator moves (Mitt Romney), it becomes easier for others.
On the Democratic side we have Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. It’s hard to say what Sinema is about, but Manchin has been a Democratic senator in a red state since 2010. Before that, he was in West Virginia state government for 28 years. He knows what Biden knows. John Stoehr puts forth an analysis of Manchin’s actions that is similar to what I’m saying here.
Manchin speaks of bipartisanship and has co-authored a letter with Republican Lisa Murkowski urging the Senate to pass a voting rights act that should be able to pass the Supreme Court that struck down the earlier version of that act. It is not the full-throated voting rights acts that the House has put forward. It may well be shot down by Senate Republicans.
But having put it forward in a bipartisan way gives Manchin ammunition to say, later, well the Republicans aren’t going to cooperate, so I sadly will have to vote with my Democratic colleagues to remove the filibuster, which has been so badly misused.
Biden is redefining bipartisanship to mean the will of the people; he cites polls that indicate his actions are approved by as much as 75% of the American people. That necessarily includes some Trump voters. If Manchin’s bipartisan approach in the Senate fails, that strengthens Biden’s all-America approach and perhaps gives Manchin an opening to vote against the filibuster.
With those 35 Republicans, the House passed a bill for a 1/6 Commission. The Senate is now contemplating it. You can be sure discussions are taking place behind the scenes. Chuck Schumer will bring it to the floor when he has the votes or when it is clear he can pin it on the Republicans. Which would strengthen a Manchin vote against the filibuster.
It’s early, and we are seeing small indicators. Things can still go bad. It’s easy to wish for decisive action and demand that Democrats move without Republicans. But splitting the Republicans will make it easier to get important legislation passed and may even help to break the Republican Party sufficiently that it has to reform.
Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner
Well That Didn’t Take Long! Israeli Police Conduct a Raid at al Aqsa Mosque – AGAIN – On Prayer Day (AGAIN!)
SiubhanDuinne
Excellent, excellent post, Cheryl. Just one small error you may wish to correct:
Liz Cheney is not a senator.
But that’s negligible. It’s a fine piece of writing. Thank you.
Cheryl Rofer
@SiubhanDuinne: Corrected! For some reason, I keep thinking of Cheney as a senator.
Elizabelle
Thank you, Cheryl. Balm for the soul, and we hear too much gloom and doom mongering.
Adults in charge, with institutional memory and the ability to take a longterm view and make short and medium term plans. Refreshing.
JoyceH
@Elizabelle:
Utterly. Whenever I find myself prey to gloomy thoughts, I remind myself that WE have the Justice Department now.
VOR
@Cheryl Rofer: Wyoming only has one House Rep so the House seat is a state level election like a Senate election.
UncleEbeneezer
I really appreciate posts like this. If only for the sake of maintaining my own sanity.
Elizabelle
@JoyceH: Absolutely.
Despair is one of the least productive emotions out there. It’s a lot of what the GOP and media are selling, and best to identify it and avoid inviting it in.
West of the Rockies
I concur with Elizabelle and UncleEbenezer: I really appreciate your informed non-doomy posts, Cheryl. Sometimes the we’re doomed posts may be in order, but nothing assures doom like thinking it’s certain.
JoyceH
@Elizabelle: I realized just recently that I’ve spent well over a year in a sort of defensive crouch and whenever I’d feel a twinge of optimism I would resolutely banish it. Now that I’ve recognized the tendency I’m trying to overcome it.
Lord Fartdaddy (Formerly, Mumphrey, Smedley Darlington Mingobat, et al.)
Thank you for this. Sometimes I get frustrated and angry. Reading something like this helps me to keep in mind that we now have people running shit who know what the fuck they’re doing, and that maybe we really can make some headway here after all.
marcopolo
Something, something, making sausage, something…
As I have to repeatedly remind some friends of mine who should know better, we have little idea what is going on behind the scenes, what is on various peoples agendas, etc… What we do tend to see is content that is often put out not to enlighten but to encourage controversy & gut level knee jerk engagement.
Thanks for the post.
TaMara (HFG)
Thank you for this. I’ve been saying this for a while, especially about Manchin. Let’s hope we are right
ETA: Although, I have not said it as eloquently as you have here. :-)
Salty Sam
Thanks Cheryl, timely indeed. I mentioned in another thread that I hope Biden is doing just as you describe- working the levers that he know so well behind the scene, out of the public eye. His competence is reassuring.
Kristine
Adding another thank-you to the list, for all the reasons discussed.
I should probably walk away from the internet Now…
Major Major Major Major
Good post, Cheryl. I’ve felt this way for a while now, since January really, though since then we’ve seen Sinema double down on… something, I don’t even know what. It seems she doesn’t know how the game is played. It’s very concerning.
Soprano2
I appreciate this post, Chery. I certainly hope you are right. I know there has to be a lot of stuff going on behind the scenes that we never see. I think after 4 years of TFG just letting everything he did hang out there in public, and watching people in his administration literally go on Fox News just so they knew he heard what they said, I think people have forgotten that there are other ways to govern. We all have some PTSD after the past 4 years.
MattF
I think the R problems are getting dire, but are not yet at the breaking point. The Trump-wingers continue to jump to the command of The Asshole, leaving those who druther not behind. Any attempt by the ‘more rational’ caucus to explain to their colleagues that Biden is not, in fact, a demented old fool whose strings are being pulled by Kamala the Kommunist falls on deaf ears.
Chief Oshkosh
@Cheryl Rofer: See how subtle and devious
SenatorCongresswoman Cheney is!Mom Says I*m Handsome
Seconding (nineteenthing?) the kudos for a level-headed and calming explanation for why things could be better than they seem. Balm for our kicked-around hearts.
I often fantasize that I had the access and power to have a fully truthful conversation with powerful people, to be able to see what motivates them, what gives them doubts & why they do what they do. Republicans do seem, mostly, to be as bleakly empty of soul and unaware of history as their social media suggests (looking at you, Hawley and Cruz and Lil Marco). But Joe Biden is fascinating — from his long tenure in government to his evolving stance on the issues and their placement in our history, he is poised to be a transformative figure for America and the world. Let’s see what happens.
Another Scott
Well said. Thanks.
One of the necessary requirements of a modern society is specialization. Modern society is too complex for everyone to have the skills and knowledge to operate in every part of it. We pay specialists people to design and regulate cellular wireless networks so that they “just work” for the rest of us. Similarly, we pay people to run the government competently so that we don’t have to think about it all the time. We don’t have the mental bandwidth to be doing that stuff while also trying to do our own jobs and live our own lives.
One of the worst things about TFG was that he tried to involve us in every single problem / crisis / disagreement every single day. As Kay might say, “just do your job – leave me out of it.” One of the best thing about Biden-Harris and their team is that they do their jobs and leave us out of the day-to-day sausage-making and leave us out of it.
Thanks again.
Cheers,
Scott.
JoyceH
@Another Scott: Exactly. It’s a novel notion after the past four years, but although we ought to stay engaged, we also ought to have a little faith that maybe, just maybe, the people running the executive branch these days actually know what they’re doing and they know how to do it.
Dagaetch
FYI Cheryl – the John Stoehr link is incorrect. Should point to https://twitter.com/johnastoehr/status/1395787585302110210.
Edmund Dantes
This assumes those old ways are still applicable with the current crops of GOP senators. Also assumes the chances of the actuarial tables coming up snake eyes on your 50/50 senate stay that way.
also assumes you have all the time in the world for the slow turning of the wheel to eventually come around.
It’s nice to let this work, but one can’t just assume you have all the time and will get another crack if you miss the chance.
Brachiator
@Cheryl Rofer:
Excellent post.
There are political reporters who have been around long enough to know how things work, and the more astute reporters see this happening all the time at the state and local level.
But your larger point is right on the money. And political reporting has been ruined by right wing partisanship. For too many in the media, there is no longer any pretense of accurate, let alone unbiased reporting.
I have recently read comments by former Clinton administration official Robert Reich and others insist that the Democrats put aside any attempt to work with any Republicans. I am glad that Biden is smarter than that.
guachi
If Schumer decides to force the Republicans to filibuster for real on this I think he’d have the backing of every Democrat and a majority of the country.
Kent
I expect there are a number of GOP Senators who really despise Trump and the direction he has taken the party. That doesn’t make them moderates, just institutionalists who are smart enough to see that Trumpism is a dead end. Murkowski, Romney, and Collins are three obvious ones. But there are others. Cutting a few deals here and there on issues that don’t directly enrage Trump and the Trump cult seems possible. I would guess infrastructure is more likely than voting rights though, since the Trump cult is so focused on voting laws at the moment. Witness the disgrace happening in Arizona.
Cheryl Rofer
@Dagaetch: Thanks. Fixed.
Ruckus
@Another Scott:
Because he didn’t have the bandwidth and mental power to do any of it himself and had no idea how to even listen to anyone who might have the specialists background in any particular subject? And it’s because he is so damn special hisself!
James E Powell
@Kent:
I see this all over and I want it to be true, but the number must be too small to make any difference.
And they may see Trumpism as a dead end, but they are all firm believers in McConnellism. They will obstruct everything because they believe it is the key to regaining the majority.
Cheryl Rofer
@Kent: And if we can get infrastructure, Biden and company will start working on pulling off another few Republicans for voting rights.
Success breeds success.
citizen dave
And then there are the stupid coward senators like my two. Two of our congresspeople voted for the 1/6 commission and have already reversed course. Waiting with baited breath for any of these people to hold (open) Town Halls again.
“COLUMBIA, Md. — There’s a reason U.S. Sen. Todd Young has been fanning out across Indiana, meeting with police officers and sheriff deputies in recent weeks. He’s up for reelection next year, but he will likely be confronted with some controversies over the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.
According to multiple media reports, about 140 U.S. Capitol and Washington Metropolitan PD officers were injured by the mob inspired by President Trump. They suffered injuries ranging from a lost eye, cracked ribs, severed fingers, smashed spinal disks, heart attacks after being repeatedly tased by their own weapons, to dozens of concussions. Some 38 Capitol Police employees have tested positive for COVID-19 since the attack, almost all of them had responded to the riot.”
https://www.wthr.com/article/news/politics/howey-the-capitulation-over-the-jan-6-insurrection-commission/531-924a3af4-2139-492b-8895-84661ff22e92
J R in WV
Pointing out that at first only one Republican (Mittster) turned away from TFG, then 10, then 35, etc. is very uplifting~!!~ There are a few Rs with ethics beginning to work on them late at night.
I doubt that a majority of Rs will be overcome by their late night doubts, but we don’t need a majority, just a few. 10 Senators will do it, and a couple of dozen Representatives.
I can feel that ol’ optimism sneaking up on me again — it keeps me hoping to survive to see what happens next!
I will point out that the first big Commission I witnessed, the Warren Commission to investigate the John F Kennedy murder, discovered nearly nothing that stood up to the test of time. But times have changed, and this Commission would be different, a little.
Ascap_scab
Richard Burr, who voted for Impeachment II, comes out against 1/6 Commission.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/554571-gops-burr-who-voted-to-convict-trump-opposes-jan-6-commission?amp
That is going backwards.
Brachiator
@James E Powell:
I have been pondering a simplified sketch of how we got here.
Reagan preached that big government was bad, but still worked with Democrats to get stuff done.
Newt Gingrich started pushing the idea that the only patriotic and legitimate government was one led by Republicans. He also tried the government shut down trick. Bill Clinton got around the GOP in part by adopting and modifying some of their policies, which got things done but upset some Democrats. I also angered Republicans who would cry “That bad Bill Clinton is stealing our ideas.” But in doing this they had to acknowledge the validity of the policy proposals advocated by Democrats.
With McConnell came pure obstructionism. Whatever the Democrats wanted had to be stopped. Of course, then, what the people wanted or might find helpful no longer mattered. Along with this came complete capitulation to corporate interests.
But most sadly, GOP rhetoric, aided by Fox News, got millions of Americans to vote against their own interests.
Biden largely refused to let himself be baited by Trump during the election campaign. He just ignored the Orange Beast.
Biden is using a similarly strategy with the GOP leadership in talking about bipartisanship based on the people, not the Congress. This works as long as he can put together legislative majorities, especially since the Republicans do not offer serious compromises. They are still stuck in Mitch Mode obstructionism. But if individual GOP members of Congress can be peeled away from the Republican mass, the Democrats benefit.
As is often the case, the mid term elections will be vital to the Democrats’ continued success. One question will be whether voters will realize who is really trying to help them.
Omnes Omnibus
Thank you for front paging a lot of of what I have be squeaking about in the comments for a long time.
Also, for those of you who complaining that you are not seeing things happen (and are fans of ducks), remember that all we are seeing is what happens about the surface of the water not the furious paddling below.
Cameron
I was not a Biden fan, but I’ve come around to thinking he’s the best we could have elected from the group running for the slot. And there were some very good candidates. It’s been pretty impressive what he’s been able to get done with such razor-thin majorities in Congress. I’d love to help make Florida a little bluer – if a few more state governments went blue or purple, he wouldn’t have to worry about whatever goofy laws (voter suppression, anti-abortion, etc.) they came up with.
JimV
I’m old enough to have vague memories of when there were semi-honest Republicans who could be worked with. This post gives me hope it may happen again. Thank you.
lee
A perfect example of this post hit the news.
Biden counteroffers with smaller infrastructure plan
Another Scott
Speaking of strategery.
Nobody in the real world cares about margins. “Just Win Baby!”
Cheers,
Scott.
geg6
@Elizabelle:
For real. This post was a balm to the sore that Ed Kilgore’s latest Eeyore post at NY Mag gave me that basically says there is nothing we can do to keep the House or Senate and that Biden or Harris or any Dem will lose to TFG in ‘24. I read about half of that shit and gave up on it. I usually like Kilgore but fuck that shit. I’m not having it.
Elizabelle
@geg6: I saw that Kilgore post! It was museum quality. [Which is not to say I finished it — enough was enough.] Shame on Ed, who usually has more sense. He should make a walloping generous contribution to a pet or people charity or some other worthy cause for subjecting us to that drivel. We should insist. Maybe send him some pee pads.
I think we are going to be highly entertained by what happens to TFG, his subordinates, and the GOP in the coming months. Karma is warming up.
WaterGirl
@Edmund Dantes: Excellent points.
CaseyL
The Psaki Hour was particularly interesting, apart from the expected Doocy Douche shenanigans.
Quite a few of the questions about the Israel-Hamas ceasefire were desperately trying to flog a narrative that Biden was just plain weak or ineffectual, because Israel didn’t stop bombing the instant Biden told Bibi to do so. The reporters also focused on how Biden praised the other Arab negotiators, trying to get Psaki to say that Biden didn’t really do much of anything.
Not sure all the assholes asking those questions were from Fox/NewsMax/OANN. (Not sure if NewsMax and OANN still have White House press credentials.)
Elizabelle
@geg6: That Ed Kilgore column was so whack, you had to wonder if someone was holding his family hostage somewhere.
H.E.Wolf
Cheryl – Thank you for this post!
Revrick
Cheryl, one of the most important things President Biden said early on was about the value of timing in politics. He knows that winning breeds winning, which is why he’s lined up The American Rescue Plan, The American Jobs Plan, and The American Care Plan as his first priorities. He also understands that the U.S. Senate only has limited bandwidth to get things done. It has to take care of so many judicial and executive branch appointments as well as legislating.
How many big things can it do in any session?
Three? Four?
Manchin has already signaled that he can live with Biden’s $4 trillion proposals, so his seeming resistance to doing immediate Reconciliation may be killing GOP Senators with kindness. The attack ads are writing themselves: we tried everything to get them to work with us on helping you, but they refused to compromise. If it was up to them, you’d get nothing. (Not to mention January 6th).
H.E.Wolf
http://PostcardsToVoters.org has officially recommenced its GOTV outreach to Democratic voters in FL. They provide 3 sentences’ worth of GOTV language, the addresses, and a 3-day writing window. Participants can ask for 4 or more addresses at a time* via smartphone or email. Sign-up info is at their website.
*I’ve been writing batches of 4. They eventually add up to quite a respectable number. :)
Steeplejack
That John Stoehr thread linked in the O.P. is very good, and not just for the Manchin part.
Cameron
@H.E.Wolf: Thanks!
dp
I don’t know if it is possible under Senate rules, but in our state legislature, each house can vote to suspend the rules to consider something on the floor that otherwise would not qualify. Once considered, the matter must pass by whatever substantive majority is required for that type of legislation. If the Senate could have a suspension of the rules motion, then they could eliminate the filibuster on a “case-by-case” basis as the necessity is demonstrated for each bill
BTW, great piece, Cheryl. Thank you!
Matt McIrvin
Lemieux thinks American democracy is the walking dead:
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2021/05/democracy-is-trampled-to-death-by-an-elephant
I have to say I am not confident he’s wrong.
Matt
Barf. I’ve been hearing “don’t worry, the Serious Democrats are fixing things behind the scenes” for thirty years, while the country has slid further and further into fascism.
lowtechcyclist
@TaMara (HFG):
I don’t claim to know what’s going on inside Manchin’s head, but I wince every time someone backs him into a corner with a question about the filibuster. The less he has to say one way or the other, the more maneuvering room he’ll have later without feeling hemmed in by his own words.
I’m not a big fan of Manchin, but if he weren’t in the Senate, winning those Georgia seats would have still left the GQP in control of the Senate. We need his vote, and it’s clear that the best way to get it is through diplomacy, not pressure, and definitely not by impatient Dems getting irate at him.
@JoyceH:
This too. I’ve yet to see the faintest reason to believe that Biden’s fucking things up, and every reason to believe that he knows what he’s doing and is doing it. And he has all sorts of good people working for him.
Another Scott
@dp: Basically (almost) everything in the US Senate gets done by what you call “suspension of the rules” – they call it “unanimous consent“. As long as nobody disagrees, they can pretty much make things up as they go.
In practice, however, they have guard-rails and so forth (the Byrd Rule in reconciliation bills, etc., etc.) that generally keeps them from throwing all the existing rules out. Most unanimous consent requests are innocuous – serious ones (e.g. majority vote for approving legislation) usually don’t get through and actual rule changes would likely be required.
Cheers,
Scott.