By now most of us have heard that Yair Lapid, the leader of the center left Yeah Atid Party, has cobbled together an agreement for a coalition government that will remove Bibi Netanyahu from office. This is potentially good news. With the emphasis on potentially. Because if you think Bibi is going to go quietly, let alone easily, I have a bridge to sell you. On a beach. In a swamp. In Floriduh!
Anshel Pfeffer, who is Bibi’s most recent biographer, though I’m sure he is an unofficial one as I can’t image Bibi was happy with the excellent book Pfeffer wrote, has written two articles this weekend – one in Haaretz and one in The Economist – that explain what is going on and why Bibi won’t go quietly and easily and why he may not go at all. Unfortunately they are both paywalled.
Fortunately he has tweeted out his analysis of the situation. Since tweets are still making the blog behave strangely for a lot of us, I’m going to copy and paste the text of his threads into quote boxes below links to the first tweets in the thread.
Pfeffer begins with Naftali Bennett’s remarks about becoming prime minister (apparent) as a result of the coalition deal Lapid has put together. In this deal, Bennett who is just about completely in Israel’s political wilderness, will serve as prime minister for the first two years with Lapid taking over as prime minister for the final two years of the coalition government. Here’s Pfeffer’s analysis of Bennett’s remarks:
Bennett up: “4 elections have damaged the state… ministers haven’t lead and instead spread hatred and discord among the nation, to cover their failure. It won’t happen again, not on my watch. The political crisis in Israel is unprecedented in the world. We can stop the madness”
Bennett: “There is no majority for a right-wing government. It’s a lie. It’s failed because no-one believes the promises will be fulfilled. Netanyahu isn’t trying to really form a right-wing government, he’s taking the national camp and the state of Israel to his personal Masada”
Bennett: “I’m going to work with all my strength to form a unity government with my friend Yair Lapid. All the parties are invited to take part. None of us can fulfill all our ideologies but this will be a government that will not be against any part of society, but for everyone”
Bennett: “To my friends in the right-wing. They’re trying to frighten you this will be a left-wing government. It will be more right-wing than the current government. The left has appointed (me) a former CEO of the settlers council and a man of Eretz Yisrael as prime minister”
Bennett: “This will not be a government that will return parts of the Land of Israel. It will be a government that will be capable of embarking on a war if necessary. There’s a well-oiled machine that is spreading lies in the heart of the public. Don’t be afraid of them.”
That’s it. Bennett is over. He’s finally burnt all his bridges with Netanyahu. There’s no way back. He’s now busy making his excuses to the right-wing for joining an anti-Netanyahu coalition with the centrists and left-wingers, but he’s on his way to the Prime Minister’s office.
“Netanyahu is trying to take the entire state of Israel to his personal Masada” was Bennett’s key line. I wonder who came up with that one.
Pfeffer then brings us Bibi’s response:
Now it’s Netanyahu’s turn: “I stand here tonight as a loyal representative of the public elected by 2 million voters (he’s including the voters of the other parties of his blocs) who chose me to protect the people of Israel. They know my compass isn’t broken. I heard Bennett”
Netanyahu: “Bennett said hollow phrases. He’s committed the fraud of the century. Naftali your promises are empty as feathers. If people knew the truth, no-one but yourself would have voted for you. The only thing he cares about is being prime minister. He flip-flopped 3 times”
Netanyahu: “Bennett’s empty words were to transfer the votes from the right to the left. We can still form a right-wing government. If we take the unorthodox step of a government in which Sa’ar is PM 1st, then me, then Bennett. It’s crooked, but a left-wing government is worse”
Netanyahu: “Bennett says we can’t have elections. He’s not saying it because it’s bad for Israel. But because he knows he’ll be wiped out in another election. He only cares about himself and about being PM for two years. Don’t form a left-wing government. It’s a danger to Israel”
Netanyahu: “Left-wing, left-wing, Iran, Hamas, Iran, Hamas, who will stand up for Israel? For the IDF? What will they think in the world? In Washington?”
Netanyahu: “They call it change, healing, democracy. What hypocrisy, what hatred. They are like Assad in Syria and the rulers of Iran.”
Finally, Pfeffer brings a much needed reality check regarding where things stand in Israel right now:
OK. I’m sorry, but all these profiles of Bennett as prime minister and handing-out of medals to the architects of Bibi’s downfall feels a tad premature. I don’t want to depress anyone, but this is the most difficult coalition to build in Israel’s history and it’s far from done.>
For a bare majority of 61, this Bennett-Lapid coalition needs to finalize agreements between 8! separate parties, make sure no-one jumps ship and seal an unprecedented deal with an Arab-Israeli party. All this with Netanyahu fighting for political life and his proxies unleashed.>
What happened tonight is that Bennett finally burned his bridges with Netanyahu, after 15 years of an abusive relationship. It’s a major milestone in Israeli politics, because it seals the split in the right-wing between Netanyahu and the Bennett-Sa’ar-Lieberman trio. But still..
To form the “government of change” will still take a few more days, probably more than a week, of fiendishly difficult political maneuvering under intense pressure from Netanyahu. It looks like it’s happening but hold his obits until the actual swearing-in, if and when it happens
Bennett is not a real political improvement over Bibi. He’s just as revanchist, just as extreme. He just doesn’t appear to be a crook. Gideon Sa’ar, one of the other extreme right alternatives to Bibi is the same way. As is Ayelet Shaked. All of them are neo-nationalists and neo-fascists, they’re just not Bibi. And Sa’ar and Shaked are much younger and much more photogenic. Regardless, it is important to remember that just two months ago Bennett signed a loyalty oath to Bibi, which he has now broken.
Naftali Bennett signed a loyalty oath to Benjamin Netanyahu only 2 months ago https://t.co/s6GdpDGyez
— Noga Tarnopolsky (@NTarnopolsky) May 30, 2021
Lapid better have gotten some pretty large and solid assurances regarding Bennett actually transferring the prime ministership to him, as well as placing limits on the right of center and right wing members of the coalition, as well as Bennett’s actual power and authority as prime minister, otherwise Bennett will knife him in his political back the first chance he gets. My understanding right now, based on what is being reported. is that since there are many more center left and left of center members of the coalition that the right wing members will be limited, but the proof will be in the final agreement. If Bennett is basically a figurehead and the most extreme elements of the coalition – all on the right – are limited in the ministries they’re given control over/the cabinet positions they’re given, this might work. But it is also an incredibly complex coalition and even if Lapid can get agreement for it and it survives whatever legal challenges and political dirty tricks Bibi will deploy to try to stop it, Lapid will be hard pressed to hold it together for four years, let alone four months.
Israel is in an incredibly dangerous place. It has had caretaker governments for the better part of the past two years. This has severely limited the ability of the Israeli government to function as Bibi has sacrificed governance to his own survival and ego. This complex coalition may be the way to bring an end to that stalemate, but it may also collapse under its own weight. And until or unless a leader arises in Israel who is willing and able to take on the underlying political, social, economic, and religious dynamics that have created this socio-political dysfunction in Israel, Israel will continue to walk along the knife’s edge towards ever greater peril.
Open thread!
debbie
No one is more hollow than Netanyahu.
egorelick
Come on Adam, I think you are smarter than that. This is just a way to kick Netanyahu out. The coalition won’t hold for 4 years. I am hard pressed that it will last 6 months. It would be better to call it “an interim government designed to call a 5th election without Netanyahu being the caretaker PM”, but that’s really too hard to process in the modern media.
MisterForkbeard
@egorelick: I have no expertise at all in this area but I think it’s basically correct.
This won’t really hang together. It’s not even really designed to – what it IS designed to do is get Bibi out of power (and hopefully in jail) so that all of these respective parties can take a shot at power. I would be surprised if this coalition lasted very long at all, though in theory if it worked it would be a very interesting government. But the real benefit is getting rid of Bibi.
sdhays
If the coalition does hold for at least a few months, what are the consequences for Netanyahu? I was under the impression that once he’s no longer PM or “caretaker PM”, his legal troubles start to catch up with him, but then I’ve also seen that his corruption trial will probably drag on for at least 2 years.
When can we actually stick a fork in this shithead? Do we have to wait for a conviction (who knows if we’ll get that) or is the expectation that once he’s out of office he’ll be weakened enough for him to be deposed even in Likud? I’ve pretty much given up on Israel, but I really want the architect of Israel’s destruction to finally be out of power.
Carlo
Of course, in this sort of fluid situation, much hangs on the kind of signaling that the US foreign policy establishment is prepared to send. Some very definite expectation-setting at a moment when Israeli politics is uncertain and perhaps feeling some International vulnerability could produce results not obtainable at more normal times.
Ken
@egorelick: @MisterForkbeard: If you’re correct, what happens if Netanyahu uses legal tactics to delay his trial? Does the coalition have to hold together until he’s tried and found guilty, and if it collapses before then, would Netanyahu be able to run and perhaps become PM again? And what if he’s acquitted?
EDIT: What sdhays said.
Another Scott
Aljazeera:
It sounds like an extremely fragile coalition, as Adam said. Presumably, they will agree that getting rid of Bibi is a vital short-term goal. After that, maybe they’ll stick together enough to avoid the hot buttons for a while, but there will be pressure from the extremes to blow everything up again, so who knows…
Cheers,
Scott.
MisterForkbeard
@Ken: I have no idea. Not an expert at all.
My guess is that if the trial starts, Netanyahu suddenly loses a lot of leverage and power. Hell, he loses quite a bit even if he’s just not the PM.
I don’t think people actually like him very much, and he doesn’t have a hold on the right-wing the same way Trump did/does. Once he’s out of power he looks a lot less attractive.
egorelick
I think we have to be careful about seeing Israeli politics through our intense desire that there be some kind of solution to the Palestinian problem. The Israelis want a lot of things and I can’t/won’t pretend to be privy to them, but solving the Palestinian problem is relatively low on the list. My guess is the spectrum of solutions for that issue politically viable in Israel is from “an uneasy truce of no active conflict where non-settler Israelis are not at risk” to “wipe them out”. Peace doesn’t factor in. That’s why Bennett who is very ugly on the issue of Palestinans is still acceptable. My (ignorant) take is that Netanyahu has outlived his welcome because of the shift in politics in the US, the fear of Haredi/right-wing violence in Israel against both Arabs and the Left, and just fatigue.
Adam L Silverman
@egorelick: That was basically the whole point of the post. Which you seem to have missed.
Adam L Silverman
@sdhays: It’ll make it easier for the prosecution to prosecute him as it takes away the few final tools he has to interfere with that.
craigie
Clearly what will resolve Israel’s issues at this point is tax cuts.
Adam L Silverman
@craigie: Dont’ forget the deregulation.
egorelick
@Adam L Silverman:
Sorry, I thought you were saying the coalition deal is shaky. I guess we agree then. The government will be shaky, but I don’t think the coalition deal is.
Bill Arnold
This bit is interesting. The reporting is suggesting that it is more than normal at least in recent (post-Rabin) times.
Shaked to get extra security amid threats to Yamina ‘traitors’ for joining Lapid – Knesset Guard to boost protection for party No 2 as she, Bennett face harassment and threats from right-wingers; brother of Netanyahu’s wife accuses Yamina lawmakers of treason (TOI staff, 2021/05/30)
Nutters are loose, and probably somebody(ies) encouraged them. The Yitzhak Rabin assassination is still strong in many peoples memories; these threats will make a lot of people angry. Netanyahu’s rhetoric has been pretty inflammatory since this deal started emerging.
Adam L Silverman
@egorelick: The coalition deal isn’t even completed yet. The proposed coalition deal is shaky. An actual coalition and government, if formed, will be shaky. This may result in removing Bibi from power, if, and it is a big if, Lapid can firm things up just enough to get the coalition in place and keep it going for enough time to achieve that objective.
Yutsano
I’m totally aware this is nothing except to kill Bibi. As long as he goes down the government can fly apart in a year* or so. All that really matters at this point is his head on the spike. It seems that’s all the political class of Israel wants right now. I’m good with that.
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: This is the same schtick that Bibi and his supporters and those even farther to the extreme right pulled during Bibi’s campaign against Rabin. Which, as we know, resulted in Rabin’s assassination. The imagery of Bennett wearing a keffiyeh Arafat style have already begun circulating, which was the exact same imagery that Bibi weaponized against Rabin.
Lapid has until Wednesday to nail all of this jello to the wall. If he doesn’t, Bibi remains caretaker prime minister in a caretaker government for about four more months before another round of elections.
Villago Delenda Est
WTF is wrong with the people of Israel that they tolerate this bullshit?
Yutsano
@Yutsano: Asterisk: yes I’m an optimist.
egorelick
@Adam L Silverman: Disagreeing on how shaky the coalition deal is is probably not worth it for me, but nothing in what you posted convinced me. If it doesn’t happen then, of course, I will have to concede you were right, but even if it does happen then there’s no way to determine who was right about its firmness at this point in time. I think it is not shaky; you think it is – the quoted tweets don’t convince me otherwise. It is exactly the burning of the bridges that makes me think the deal is on solid ground.
Another Scott
Speaking of perpetual train wrecks, the Texas House is in session now, with the GQP trying to ram through SB7 – their horrid new voting rules.
The bill fails if it doesn’t pass by midnight local time (CDT). The GQP made some changes to the bill that need some procedural votes that they have been having trouble getting.
There are people milling around, but I don’t hear anything happening at the moment. I’m surprised how few people are in the gallery.
Lack of a quorum claimed on previous vote just now, so there are bits of audio occasionally….
(via JuddLegum via LOLGOP)
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@egorelick: There isn’t even an agreement yet. Just an announcement of what an agreement might be if Lapid can actually nail down every detail between now and Wednesday when his opportunity to form a government expires by Israeli law. Ra’am, the Islamist Arab-Israeli Party, which has to sign off on this deal, hasn’t even indicated that they will play ball. Just the political deal making is going to be incredibly delicate. And it has to happen while Bibi will be calling in every favor he is owed to scuttle it, while trying to scuttle it in court, and while his relatives, surrogates, trusted agents, and supporters all attempt to use the threat of political violence and, most likely, actual political violence against potential members of the coalition to stop it from happening.
I know a lot about this topic. I was the senior advisor on this stuff to the 3 star Army Service Component Commander who had the operational lead on the Israeli-Palestinian dispute for the DOD back during the 2014 attempt to try to make some progress. Anshel Pfeffer, who is better informed than I am and is Bibi’s biographer, has clearly indicated there’s not much here yet but promises, assertions, hope, thoughts, and prayers. And that it will be incredibly difficult for Lapid to navigate all the competing interests, as well as Bibi’s machinations, to pull this off. So if you refuse to believe me, consider believing him.
I will be thrilled if we get to Wednesday and Lapid has pulled this off. I will not be surprised if we get to Wednesday and we find out that despite his best efforts he was unable to do so.
Nettoyeur
I am no expert on Israel or mideast politics. Some years ago, a colleague (native Israeli but also American) who personally knows Netanyahu told me that if I spent 20 minutes with Bibi, I would conclude that he is a very smart guy, but an asshole whom I could not trust. It may be that even Israelis who share Bibi’s policy views just cannot stand him any longer.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: This is who you want to follow. He’s been on site covering it:
debbie
@Nettoyeur:
I’d bet he’s got more than a few settlers in his pocket who he can weaponize if need be.
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
Ugh. Here’s a link (including one of said images), for others:
Security around Bennett increased over wave of social media incitement – Police Major Crimes Unit investigating incitement against Yamina’s leader after images of him depicted in the style seen in the weeks prior to the 1995 assassination of then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin go viral. (ILH Staff, 05-30-2021)
Another Scott
@Nettoyeur:
(replying to dick_nixon)
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: One of my mother’s friends, who passed away a couple of years ago, went to school with and grew up with Bibi when he lived in Philadelphia. She described him as the same asshole now as he was then.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: It’s a small world.
One of dick_nixon’s shticks is that good politicians don’t forget where they came from. Apparently evil politicians can have the same trait…
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman:
It would appear so, but I haven’t seen any confirmation yet.
To be clear, even if it failed tonight, it’s just a temporary setback (unless things change), though I don’t know if they can take it up again tomorrow or the details.
But so far, so good.
Cheers,
Scott.
Lum’s Better Half
Is “Lapid” Hebrew for “Clegg”?
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: I have no idea. The legislative procedure of the Texas legislature and each chamber within it is not something I know a lot about. Nor is it something I actually want to know something about.
Adam L Silverman
@Lum’s Better Half: Depending on how he spells it in Hebrew, it is Hebrew for torch.
dmsilev
@Another Scott: Per the Post just now,
Kent
@Another Scott: Former Texan here. They are just postponing the inevitable. Abbott will just call a special session to ram it through if they don’t get it done now. Potentially make things worse because the GOP will just have more time to do more nasty shit.
Citizen Alan
@Villago Delenda Est: A sufficiently large percentage of them are religious lunatics and genocidal bigots, and the non-lunatic, non-bigoted majority goes along with it in the futile hopes of preserving democracy. IOW, the same basic problem we have here.
Another Scott
@dmsilev: Thanks.
We (all of us) live to fight another day. That’s a good thing.
Cheers,
Scott.
Calouste
@Adam L Silverman:
Isn’t it that they don’t actually need 61 votes, they just need more votes than Bibi, which they get as long as the Arab-Israeli parties abstain? At least that’s how things typically work in parliamentary democracies.
rp
@Adam L Silverman: that was not at all the point of your post. Or if it was it was poorly stated.
Morzer
@craigie: Surely some Confederate statues need to be part of the package.
Morzer
@Adam L Silverman: I think it’s going to be extremely difficult to hold that most improbable coalition of the mutually unwilling together for any length of time after Netanyahu is finally dragged out by the scruff of the neck. That said, all members of the coalition seem to agree that they loathe Netanyahu, so there ought to be a decent chance of achieving a short-term consensus sufficient to give him the boot.
Geminid
@Morzer: Lapid’s coalition does seem inherently fragile. It is composed of two “Left” parties totaling 13 MKs- Meretz (6), and Labor (7); two “Center” parties totaling 25 MKs- Blue and White (8), and Lapid’s Yesh Atid (17); and three “Right” parties totaling 20 MKs- Yisrael Beitanyu (7), Bennett’s Yamina (7), and Likud defector Saar’s New Hope (6). These collectively total only 58 MKs, so abstentions by Arab Israeli MKs are needed to form a minority government. If the coalition actually does form a government, though, it could last a while None of the parties sem to have much incentive to cause a new election. And the Arab parties know that another election could result in the hard right government Netanyahu almost formed after the last one.
Right now the big losers (besides Netanyahu) are the two traditional Ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi parties- Shas (8 MKs), and United Torah (7). They have benefitted from the subsidies and concessions won as minority coalition members. Now Yisrael Beitanyu chief Avigdor Lieberman is Finance Minister, and he hates the Haredi politicians almost as much as he hates Netanyahu. The Haredi parties will get to see where their blind loyalty to Netanyahu has gotten them. Some Likud MKs are pondering the same question.
If Lapid’s coalition does is in fact become a government, any major shifts in policy are unlikely. The next few months could be very turbulent, as members of the radical right Religious Zionist party (6MKs) will likely take to the streets. Their Lenava street fighters played a big part in the run up to the recent Gaza war. Curbing them could be one of the new government’s early challenges.
Geminid
@Geminid: One minor question of interest: what happens to Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi? Ashkenazi is now in Cairo working with Egyptian President al-Sissi on a more permanent ceasefire with Hama. He was not a candidate in the last election. His Blue and White party could easily make him an MK by having one of their 8 resign and appointing Ashkenazi in his place. But Lapid may have promised that cabinet post to another party.
As it stands, Blue and White chief Benny Gantz will continue as Defense Minister. Like his colleague Ashkenazi, Gantz is a former Israeli Defense Force Chief of Staff.
Geminid
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks for the excellent post. Israeli politics are complex and hard to understand. They impact ours, though, and the more solid information you present, the better.
Geminid
@MisterForkbeard: Netayahu’s corruption trial has already started. Prosecutors started presenting evidence on the first of three counts some weeks ago.The Gaza war interrupted the trial, but it resumed last week, with defense attorneys cross examining prosecution witnesses. Another session will likely be held today, and in a few hours there should be reporting in the Times of Israel and the Jerusalem Post.
Observers estimate that the slow trial pace and probable appeals will mean that a definitive resolution to Netanyahu’s criminal will take two years.
Anonymous At Work
A friend in Israel is giving this six months tops. I think this last 3 days past Bibi’s conviction. Whichever comes first.
Ella in New Mexico
The idea that Netanyahu is literally on track to be the Zombie Prime Minister of Israel for LIfe leads me to question that they have the greatest system of government, no matter how much we tout them being such an “important Democratic State in the Middle East”.
No unlike how I feel about our own “Great Experiment” here in the US…
Gary K
40,320 separate parties?