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Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

I also would like a pony to improve my balloon juice experience.

Every day Vance writes another chapter in the book called “Worst VP Pick Ever”.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

I wonder if trump will be tried as an adult.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

“And when the Committee says to “report your income,” that could mean anything!

The US Supreme Court is on the ballot in november.

Republicans don’t lie to be believed, they lie to be repeated.

The arc of the moral universe doesn’t bend itself. it’s up to us.

Oh FFS you might as well trust a 6-year-old with a flamethrower.

A consequence of cucumbers

Republicans would impeach Biden if he bit into a whole Kit Kat rather than breaking the sections apart.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

…and a burning sense of injustice to juice the soul.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

You are here: Home / Politics / Biden Administration in Action / The Biden-Putin Summit

The Biden-Putin Summit

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What can we expect from the summit meeting between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin?

Nothing.

That is the expectation that Biden is setting. There will be no grand pronouncements, no reset, maybe not even a perfunctory statement of agreement on a minor point. That is part of the reason that Biden plans to hold a press conference by himself. The other part, of course, is in contrast with Donald Trump’s disastrous showing at Helsinki.

But the meeting is necessary and important. Russia is a major country, with a nuclear arsenal equivalent to America’s. Russia is adjacent to our allies in Europe and supplies energy to many of them. It has a long land border across which untoward things can happen. Those are reason enough for the leaders to meet.

The meeting is important because tensions between the two countries have increased during the 21st century. The United States has pulled out of treaties that stabilized the relationship rather than try to resolve problems. Russia has acted as an international spoiler. Both sides need to show reliability in their actions. That can only be done through meetings.

Many issues might be discussed – the situation with those treaties and how to go forward, the situation in Ukraine, American sanctions on Russia, Russia’s attacks on dissidents inside and outside Russia, the situation in Syria, America’s return to the Iran nuclear agreement, relations with China, the uses of the Arctic, and more. Both men have their own lists of priorities. It’s likely that their aides have exchanged those lists and are working to pare them down to fit in the time available.

Those aides have also been gaming out something like a SWOT analysis – Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats. I’ll do a bit of that here. Obviously, I’m coming at it from an Americentric viewpoint.

The real strength internationally today is in dealing with the pandemic. The pandemic hinders economies and military strength. Biden understands this and has made controlling the pandemic his first priority, with some success. In contrast, Russia is going into another wave of disease. Its people are more reluctant than Americans to be vaccinated, and its vaccine may be less effective than others. Brazil and Slovakia have raised questions about quality control in its manufacture.

Russia’s willingness to take risks to upend other countries’ expectations in terms of invading its neighbors and willingness to kill individuals seen as dissidents both inside and outside Russia is a strength. It keeps opponents off guard and makes the most of capabilities that are weaker than others’.

Russia’s role as a supplier of natural gas to Europe is a strength in dealing with Europe, to be used as leverage against the formal alliances of NATO and the EU. Both of those alliances are strengths, emphasized during Biden’s visits these two weeks.

Both countries have weaknesses in their domestic political situations. America has a major political party that is sympathetic to and influenced by Russian organizations. Russia’s poor economic situation and repression of dissidents have led to demonstrations, which repression may damp down. Putin is not grooming a successor, which is not a problem now but will become one at some point. America’s last president contines to try to undermine the succession.

The summit itself is an opportunity for Putin personally. He wants Russia to be seen as an equal to America, and a summit provides favorable optics. But that doesn’t improve Russia’s economy or pandemic status. And Russia is an equal in nuclear destructive power.

The opportunity for both is to feel the other out, understand him better, try out approaches. The personal relationship is far from the whole thing, but it’s not unimportant.

The biggest policy opportunity is likely to be in the area of the now defunct nuclear treaties. Both sides understand that nuclear war or accident is the greatest danger facing them. Additionally, both sides are looking at very expensive plans for modernizing their nuclear forces. In the economic crunch of the pandemic, sizing those plans down would be significant. Communication of actions that might look like war is important. Bringing China into discussions of limiting numbers of nuclear weapons is worth thinking about. The most that might be achieved in this meeting would be agreement to hold working meetings on these topics.

Biden will bring up Ukraine, and Putin will bring up sanctions. The most that will be mentioned of these subjects in any communiqué will be that they were discussed. Maybe some positive words can be ginned up about the Arctic.  It is possible that there will not be a joint communiqué.

Threats to a chummy outcome with roses and unicorns are pretty much everything about the relationship, which is why Biden is damping down expectations, and Putin isn’t saying much either.

In the leadup to the summit, both sides are making gestures of strength and perhaps signaling ways forward. They are predictable and not very significant.

One that I find significant is that NATO made a statement that it will not deploy new land-based missiles to Europe. It wasn’t planning to, but Russia has deployed potentially nuclear cruise missiles in the area. It was these missiles that were the proximate cause of the American withdrawal from the INF Treaty. Russia says it is willing to come back to an INF-style treaty in Europe, but it will be a long way. The activity around this issue suggests it will be discussed, although the best we can expect is the formation of a working group.

Biden will have his own interpreter and note-taker with him. He may also have Jake Sullivan or Antony Blinken along. Putin will have a similar complement of his people. The summit will take place, and we will move along to the next thing.

Cross-posted at Nuclear Diner

Reader Interactions

85Comments

  1. 1.

    WaterGirl

    Thanks for this, Cheryl.

    I listened to the June 9 Pod Save the World podcast, where Ben Rhodes talked with Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer talked about why President Biden is meeting with Putin.

    It’s worth listening to, and I came away with a better understanding of why Biden wanted to meet, and your post added to my understanding.

    The interview starts at around the 50-minute mark, if anyone wants to listen.

  3. 3.

    Steve in the ATL

    Obviously, I’m coming at it from an Americentric viewpoint.

    Obviously, because you’re not a republican.

  5. 5.

    Emma

    The latest episode of Mark Galeotti’s podcast, In Moscow’s Shadows, has a segment on this summit. I think he basically agrees with you, Cheryl. Low expectations, but necessary in order to clarify things privately, since putting demands out in the open will cause Putin to bring out the “strongman” image every time to legitimate his rule.

  6. 6.

    Mike in NC

    Putin will be put on notice that he no longer has a pliable stooge sitting in the White House, grateful for all the money he and his family were able to launder for corrupt Russian oligarchs.

    It will be telling if a bunch of seditious Republicans in Congress plan another trip to Moscow for the 4th of July.

  7. 7.

    Another Scott

    Thanks for this.  Co-sign.

    “Jar, jar is better than war, war.” – Some old Anglo-American guy.

    And Putin needs to hear directly, and early, from Biden that things have changed from TFG.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  9. 9.

    Cermet

    First off, putin is a murderous coward – that is, a typical mafia thug (aka FSB); that said it has been us that really created this mess with Russia; first, the cheney presidency with the puppet bush ended the ABM treaty and this caused Russia massive issues; further and very disastrously, they extended NATO to Russia’s border via the Baltic – really? Of all the things to do that was certainly the worse relative to Russia’s point of view. Do know that until 1954 Crimea was part of Russia, not the Ukraine; considering it is the vital Russian naval base  -so no surprised Russia seized it.

  10. 10.

    Steve in the ATL

    @tam1MI:

     

    “This has nothing to do with race,” Melissa Borgioli said.

    LOL.

    And just when I was thinking of moving to Mississippi….

  12. 12.

    Geminid

    @Cermet: Russia will never give up the Crimea, and no one will ever make them. Continued sanctions are still warranted though, so Russia at least pays a price.

  20. 20.

    zhena gogolia

    Thanks. I appreciate both Cheryl’s and Adam’s perspectives on this, and I agree with both of them on various points.

    The history of Crimea is a little more complicated than what was indicated above.

  21. 21.

    CaseyL

    With megalomaniacs, I’m never sure whether it’s best to deflate their delusions of supremacy, or jolly them along long enough to find a suitable baseball bat.

    Biden is known for being soft-spoken in tone, and blunt in content. If he knows something concrete and actionable about Russia’s interference in US politics, would he bring it up at the conversation? Or would it be strategically better to keep that sort of thing closely-held until the US can do something equally concrete and actionable?

  22. 22.

    trollhattan

    @CaseyL: 
    Biden should use the Corn Pop treatment on Vlad and watch what happens. NB I am not an expert on international affairs.

  28. 28.

    Robert Sneddon

    What’s the status of Russia’s land-based nuclear weapons capability? The ageing SS-18 ‘Satan’ missile replacement program is rumoured to not be going well with the super-heavy RS-28 Sarmat being late into deployment. The Russians have the shorter-range and less effective Topol missiles (mobile and silo-based) but not that many of them. This is perhaps the reason they’re taking a naval cruise missile design and building a land-launch variant of it, to act as a stopgap delivery platform akin to the obsolete US BGM-109G cruise missiles and that’s what has the Western powers worried — most cruise missiles are nuclear-capable although AFAIK all nuclear-armed cruise missiles of all types in the US arsenal have now been decommissioned.

  30. 30.

    CaseyL

    @Cheryl Rofer: What Russia is up to is IMO a whole lot more than election interference.  There are many GOP politicians who appear to be fully owned Russian subsidiaries.

  31. 31.

    Cermet

    @Gin & Tonic: And I omit the staggering mass starvation of the Ukraine by Stalin that killed millions as he seized all their food to make money to industrialize in the 1920-30’s. We could go on with the terrible things the Russian thugs/leaders did that killed so many millions of Russian people; but my point was that until fairly recently, in terms of national histories, Crimea was part of Russia proper.  The issue is more complex than a simple land grab by Russia – when you include it is vital for their navy, the plot thickens further. We of course, have done very similar things

  35. 35.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Cheryl Rofer: ​
      Warheads and sparkly bits are sexy and get all the attention but delivery platforms cost more and are more difficult to design and maintain over a period of decades, and the sparkly bits aren’t much use without the delivery platforms to carry them on their ride to glory.

    It’s one reason the UK designs and builds its own Buckets of Instant Sunshine but rents Trident D5 missiles from the USN common pool for the Royal Navy’s current and future Continuous At-Sea Deterrent boats, the only nuclear-capable delivery platform we’ve got left since our W87 freefall tactical bombs were decommissioned more than fifteen years ago.

  36. 36.

    Another Scott

    Kinda relatedly: WH.gov:

    President Biden spoke today with Prime Minister Bennett to offer his warm congratulations to Prime Minister Bennett on becoming Prime Minister of the State of Israel. President Biden highlighted his decades of steadfast support for the U.S.-Israel relationship and his unwavering commitment to Israel’s security. He expressed his firm intent to deepen cooperation between the United States and Israel on the many challenges and opportunities facing the region. The leaders agreed that they and their teams would consult closely on all matters related to regional security, including Iran. The President also conveyed that his administration intends to work closely with the Israeli government on efforts to advance peace, security, and prosperity for Israelis and Palestinians.

    ###

    Those last two words are important. Good for them for including them.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  37. 37.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Ken: Yes, I’ve been thinking lately about Burevestnik and what part it might play in arms control talks. My guess is that it will be a bargaining chip, something to give away at no cost. There’s no indication they’ve tested it since the deadly explosion in 2019. Here’s a link at Nuclear Diner. It’s probably here too, but it can be very hard to search for stuff here.

  38. 38.

    Betty

    Folks are wondering why NBC decided to do an interview with Putin, giving him a platform.

  40. 40.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Cermet:  There is so much to disagree with in this that I will just choose the simplest thing. Worse is comparative, while worst is superlative.

  41. 41.

    Another Scott

    @Robert Sneddon: The FAS and TheBulletin.org put out a report in March of this year. Here is the HTML version (pdf available at the link). It seems to be a decent summary – it’s pretty dense.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  43. 43.

    Geminid

    @Gin & Tonic: Never is a long time. Maybe I should have said, for the next few decades. And even then, I think that some nation or combination of nations would still have to take the Crimea from Russia by force.

  44. 44.

    J R in WV

    The Russo-Republicans in our own government should be forced to vote in the legislature of their own nation, which is not the USA.

    If they continue to pretend they act as Americans, they should be indicted, convicted, and deported to their actual home nation, Russia. Insurrection is a start for these investigations, which then aligns with any available communications records between GQP members and foreign nationals held by the NSA or any communications corporations.

    These people are as un-American as the Imperial Japanese Navy, circa 1930-1945. I can’t believe my tax money is used to pay their salaries~!~

  45. 45.

    Another Scott

    @Geminid: Or make it irrelevant as a home to naval facilities.

    Stripes.com (from February 2021):

    STUTTGART, Germany — Ukraine is moving forward with plans to build two new naval bases in the Black Sea region, an area of tension with Russia that may see greater U.S. military and NATO involvement this year.

    One base will be built along the Black Sea and the other in the Sea of Azov, a linked waterway that has been a flashpoint between Russia and Ukraine, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Tuesday.

    The United Kingdom is “helping us financially” and work on the projects will begin soon, Shmyhal said.

    The comments came during a joint news conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who touted U.S. and alliance efforts in the region. The Black Sea is likely to be an area of focus when Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin takes part in his first NATO defense ministers’ meeting next week in Brussels.

    [image]
    Patrol boats participate in Ukrainian Navy Day, in Odessa, Ukraine, in July 2019. Ukraine is planning two new naval bases in the Black Sea region, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Feb. 9, 2021.
    KYLE STECKLER/U.S. NAVY

    “I think we have to understand that the Black Sea is of strategic importance for NATO and the NATO allies — our littoral states, Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania. And then we have two close and highly valued partners in the region, Ukraine and Georgia,” Stoltenberg said.

    Gen. Tod Wolters, NATO supreme allied commander and head of U.S. European Command, also has been talking up NATO’s “enhanced forward presence” in the Black Sea region. “Recently … we have strengthened our maritime posture with superb support from Georgia and Ukraine,” Wolters said last week.

    […]

    Taking Crimea was a punch in the eye to NATO, and a way to prevent Ukraine from formally joining NATO in the near term (IIRC, no country can join NATO that is having a territorial dispute), but it’s not that important as a military base. The mid-1850s was a long time ago.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  46. 46.

    debbie

    Netanyahu going out hot, crazy, angry and above all a sore loser. Wow. Quite a spectacle.
    — Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) June 13, 2021

    Honestly, it’s remarkable how much this mirrors – within the structural confines of the Israeli state system – Trump’s fall. The emotive tone, the conspiracy theories, the half-efforts to insurrect or remain in power. Even the closing temper tantrum.
    — Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) June 13, 2021

  47. 47.

    Geminid

    @Another Scott: Well, it is the 2020s, and Russia still needs its naval bases on the Crimea if it wants to maintain a naval presence in the Black Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. And the Crimea is an excellent place to base anti-aircraft and anti-ship weapons  that can range over most of the Black Sea. The Russians would not give it up without a tough fight.

  48. 48.

    Another Scott

    @Geminid: Ukraine gave Russia a lease to the bases on Crimea after the breakup of the USSR.  The arrangement was working fine.  Nobody was saying that Putin couldn’t have bases there, AFAIK.

    He needs to get out of Donbas and the rest of the country that his “little green men” invaded.

    (I think you need to drop “the” from “the Crimea”.)

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  49. 49.

    Geminid

    @Another Scott:I would also like to see Russia give up the Donbass region. But if they don’t, I’m not sure how many Ukrainian soldiers I want to see die to take it back. The Ukrainians themselves may not think it’s worth it. But that’s out of my hands. It looks like the Biden administration will at least provide the Ukrainians with sufficient weapons to repulse any further incursions into their territory

  50. 50.

    Another Scott

    @Geminid: “need” was probably the wrong word.  No offense intended.

    “The” has a long, and sordid, history.

    “The Sudan”

    “The Ukraine”

    ForeignPolicy:

    […] In the United States and Canada, he said, “the émigré community cared because it cared about whether Ukraine was recognized as its own thing or if it was seen as a territory that belonged to the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union or Poland.” Andryczyk put it more bluntly: Adding “the” to the name is offensive to Ukrainians, he explained, “because it’s a colonial legacy and it makes it sound like a region.”

    The Ukrainian journalist Olena Goncharova broke down the specifics of the etymological insult in a series in the Kyiv Post called “Honest History.” “Saying ‘the Ukraine’ is more than a grammatical mistake — it is inappropriate and disrespectful for Ukraine and Ukrainians,” she wrote. Attaching “the” in front of the name not only suggests that Ukraine is a “sub-part or region of a country,” like “the Fens in England, the Algarve in Portugal, and the Highlands in Scotland,” but it implies that Ukraine is a vassal state, a colonial territory, whereas “Ukraine is no longer a part of another country or empire,” she emphasized. “After many hard battles, it has become an independent, unitary state.”

    […]

    HTH.

    [eta.:] The link undermines my correction a little.  I’d be interested in zeyhna’s (sp?) and Gin & Tonic’s views.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  52. 52.

    Another Scott

    @Cheryl Rofer: But it does diminish it, doesn’t it?

    We don’t say “the Florida”.  We do say “the upper peninsula” when talking about the geography of Michigan, but we’re not really talking about the geography of Ukraine, here.

    Dunno.  It seems like there could be some unintended minefields.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  55. 55.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Butter Emails: And we say the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.  For the same reason.  They are a collective.

    ETA: We said the Soviet Union.  We do not say the France or the Uruguay.

  56. 56.

    guachi

    @Another Scott: The Sudan is fine. It’s what it’s called in Arabic. Along with The Jordan and The Iraq.

    And Algeria has the Arabic “the” built into its English name

  59. 59.

    Gin & Tonic

    I’ve been through this enough times. No definite article for “Ukraine,” please. Using “the Crimean Peninsula” is fine. “The Crimea” has no grammatical basis. It sounds weird, too. Save the typing and just use “Crimea.”

    And for the love of God, no “Crimea river” jokes, ok?

  62. 62.

    Another Scott

    The The – Infected was a good album.

    That is all.

    (Thanks everyone.)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  64. 64.

    Doug R

    @Gin & Tonic:

     

    You omit the 1944 ethnic cleansing of Crimea.

    And the Holodomor which my grandfather with his young family managed to GTFO of Ukraine just before it happened.

  65. 65.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Doug R: Of course, but the Holodomor is not directly relevant to the ethno-political history of Crimea. The expulsion of the Tatars is. Hence my point about its omission in the midst of claims about who the land “really” belongs/belonged to.

  67. 67.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Here’s a really good article that just showed up. Those looking for big results from this summit should consider that big steps in arms control occurred only when conditions were right. It’s a bit different from what I’m saying, but I’m delighted to be somewhat consistent with Michael Krepon.

  69. 69.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Haha, this will annoy Putin too, but oh my do we need it!

  70. 70.

    Another Scott

    @Benw: I’m reminded of discussions about whether the band’s name was “The Pretenders” or “Pretenders”.

    I liked the latter better, but it seems that even the band itself is not consistent about it – witness the album cover and the web site…

    ;-)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  78. 78.

    Starfish

    @tam1MI: What is shocking is not that it happened but that it got national press, so there may be some tiny amount of accountability.

  79. 79.

    West of the Rockies

    Russia supplies energy. So what does Russia need? Is there some necessary import (food, medicine, financial agencies?) that maybe can be vaguely threatened to get them to play by rules? It seems like they never face repercussions.

  80. 80.

    Subsole

     

     

    @schrodingers_cat: Good lord I wish these folks would work out their parental defiance issues the way we did – tattoos, questionable romantic partners and really bad haircuts.

  81. 81.

    Subsole

    @West of the Rockies: There’s plenty you can do to hurt the Russian people. Hell, the people running Russia do a damn fine job of it all on their own. No help needed from us.

    I am given to understand that hurting the Bratva is a different trick. Especially if you don’t want to hurt the Russian people in the process. Basically, any shortages you could cause aren’t gonna hit the people you’re trying to hit.

    Clamping down on money laundering is actually probably the fastest and most effective way to actually put pain on those assholes. Seizing ALL of their foreign assets would also be nice.

  82. 82.

    PJ

    @Cermet: one might just as well say, “Until fairly recently, Algeria was part of France proper”, to justify a French takeover of Algeria.  (Or “until fairly recently, Alsace-Lorraine and Western Poland were part of Germany” to justify WWII).  When dependent territories get their independence, there will always be people in the “mother” country who will justify any military action to get it back.

  83. 83.

    Boomzilla

    Check you out. From CNN.

    “It is not surprising that the French would reach out,” according to Cheryl Rofer, a nuclear scientist who retired from Los Alamos National Laboratory in 2001. “In general, this sort of thing is not extraordinary, particularly if they think the country they are contacting has some special ability to help.”

    “But China likes to project that everything is just fine, all the time,” she added
    Still, Rofer, the retired nuclear scientist, warns that a gas leak could indicate bigger problems.

    “If they do have a gas leak, that indicates some of their containment is broken,” Rofer said. “It also argues that maybe some of the fuel elements could be broken, which would be a more serious problem.”

    “That would be a reason for shutting down the reactor and would then require the reactor to be refueled,” Rofer told CNN, adding that removing the fuel elements must be done carefully.

    For now, US officials do not think the leak is at “crisis level,” but acknowledge it is increasing and bears monitoring, the source familiar with the situation told CNN.

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/14/politics/china-nuclear-reactor-leak-us-monitoring/index.html

  84. 84.

    ericblair

    @PJ: 

    Yes, and under that logic, Turkey can just up and occupy Crimea tomorrow, as the successor state of the Ottoman Empire.

    Crimea is one of those issues that have no resolution until something major changes in international relations. If it’s returned to Ukraine at some point in the future, it would likely be a side issue caused by some massive shift in Russia’s fortunes. Accordingly, the likely course now is to just box it up and put it on the shelf.

  85. 85.

    bluefoot

    @tam1MI:  F*cking white fragility. These snowflakes need to get over themselves, and institutions need to stop catering to their bullshit. (not gonna happen, I know…Most institutions in the US are set up to perpetuate white supremacy.)

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