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You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

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No one could have predicted…

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Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” was supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

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Hot air and ill-informed banter

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GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Saturday / Sunday, July 24-25

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Saturday / Sunday, July 24-25

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There are still people who can be reached:

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Olympics organisers reported on Sunday 10 new Olympics-related COVID-19 cases, bringing the disclosed total to 132.

… Spain’s public health care system, which has suffered budget cuts in the past decade, buckled last year under the first wave of the virus, which has claimed at least 81,000 lives in the country.

But fears that the health system wouldn’t be up to the job of managing a massive vaccine rollout proved unfounded. Eligibility information was widely disseminated, and people didn’t hesitate to sign up when it was their age group’s turn. Vaccination lines generally moved swiftly, and unlike France, there was no paperwork to get in the way when people went to their local clinics or mass vaccination points.

It also helped that no politician, not even on the fringes of the right or left, sowed doubts about the vaccines. The only political issue regarding the vaccines was when they weren’t arriving fast enough, and regional health authorities in charge of administering them demanded more quicker…

Unlike Germany or France, Spain doesn’t have a big anti-vaccine movement. More than 90% of Spain’s public health workers have been vaccinated, compared with 42% of public health workers in France.

So while France and Greece have had to pressure skeptics and procrastinators into getting their shots by making vaccines mandatory for people working certain jobs, such as paramedics and nursing home workers, Spaniards have so far needed very little prodding.

In methodically working its way from the most elderly downward, Spain achieved its first goal: stopping the most vulnerable from dying. But the emphasis on vaccines as the salvation could also have contributed to Spain’s young letting down their guards as curfews and face mask requirements were lifted, just as the delta variant arrived.

The result is that, despite its smooth vaccine rollout, Spain is currently one of Europe’s hot spots for new infections. Spain is reporting more than 25,000 new cases a day now compared with 3,400 a day a month ago, according to Our World in Data…

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… Manufacturers are aiming to supply the world with an estimated 11 billion coronavirus vaccine doses by the end of 2021 – a massive increase in capacity, tripling previous annual vaccine output.

But the industry says it can only meet these commitments if the current shortages in materials and components are tackled alongside measures to allow the free flow of workers around the world.

The World Bank has even said the resulting delays could push back the date of worldwide herd immunity, which it had predicted could be reached by March 2022…

A global manufacturing task force – an offshoot of the Covax scheme which aims to ensure vaccines are available everywhere around the world – has been set up to try to tackle the shortages.

And now the Covax Marketplace has been launched – a secure platform that will allow manufacturers and suppliers to buy and sell products in one place, helping to increase the visibility of what’s available when.

It will initially focus on six categories of supplies: bioreactor bags, single use assemblies, filters, cell cultures, lipids, glass vials, and stoppers.

But, Mr Downham says, work also needs to be done to ensure vaccine makers are using their full capacity at all times. For example, if a manufacturer’s “fill and finish” services – when vaccines are bottled and packed – are not available, there need to be ways of using other available facilities to ensure manufacturing doesn’t slow down or come to a halt.

In the longer term, the manufacturing task force aims to build manufacturing capacity – factories, staff and expertise – across the world, especially in low and middle-income countries…

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Reader Interactions

64Comments

  2. 2.

    NeenerNeener

    Monroe County, NY stats:

    NYS Department of Health numbers :

    New COVID cases:

    33 new cases on 7/24.

  3. 3.

    NotMax

    Before the weekend is out France will exceed 6,000,000 cumulative reported cases, Malaysia will pass the 1,000,000 number.

  4. 4.

    lowtechcyclist

    All those soon-to-expire vaccines could be on refrigerated trucks to Mexico.  Hand them over to the Mexican government, let them distribute.
    If there’s enough time left before they expire, send ’em to central and South America, Africa, India, wherever.  But stuff can be put on a truck today, and be in Mexico tomorrow. There’s simply no excuse there.
    Whatever legal obstacles are in the way, either Biden or Congress needs to clear them out.  It’s insane that we’re not sending all of our surplus abroad.​
     

    ETA: I’ve already called my Congresspersons up about this. They’ll be hearing from me again tomorrow.

  6. 6.

    Amir Khalid

    @NotMax:

    We’re there already. Meanwhile, the fully-vaccinated fraction of the Malaysian population is rising by half a percentage point every day. But it doesn’t feel like we’re approaching herd immunity anywhere near fast enough.

  7. 7.

    NotMax

    @lowtechcyclist

    Merely pointing trucks in that direction is not the answer, not without cooperative logistics, receiving and handling facilities, trained personnel, associated equipment (needles, syringes), storage and distribution protocols in place and ramped up at the other end to deal with an influx of supply.

  8. 8.

    A Ghost to Most

    Christian supremacists are willing to die to “own the scientists”, and willing to take children with them.

    They’re sick, selfish assholes.

  9. 9.

    Cermet

    Deleted response – see a ghost to most answered first.

    So I’ll add that a big known unknown relative to pandemics are fungus infections; some are now totally resistant to any treatment, there are zero vaccines, they are spreading and far more infectious then previous (getting heat tolerant) and love infecting anyone that is sick or immune compromised in any way. We are in trouble on this front  – even here in the US.

  10. 10.

    Cermet

    @Winston: With over 75% of the 18+ age groups vaccinated (over 65% fully) I’m not too worried here. That said, do realize that most vaccinated people are likely to get Covid Delta but you would never know unless tested. The mRNA (and even J&J) vaccines really, really work well. Your body quickly eliminates/clears the virus before you get sick. Best, your immunity is further strengthened.

  11. 11.

    Xentik

    @Amir Khalid: There is no longer any serious possibility of herd immunity being achieved. The original strain of COVID had an R0 of 2-2.5, which meant a herd immunity requires vaccinated + infected of 66-71% to stop exponential growth. The new one has an R0 of 8-9, which is 88-90%. Aggressive, mandatory vaccination + lockdowns could slow the progression, but it seems nobody has the stomach for lockdowns anymore, nor is anyone willing to mandate vaccines (or at least a serious attempt at vaccine passports).

  12. 12.

    NotMax

    @Amir Khalid

    How I long for coming up with a term other than herd immunity. It’s a will-o’-the-wisp, as way too many interpret that as current vaccinations equating to being completely immune to all chance of viral intrusion (as opposed to being robustly protected, and more particularly against the worst manifestations of infection).

  14. 14.

    Winston

    @Cermet: I believe I did get it July 10 thru July 17, though I did not get tested. My feet turned red and my blood oxy nose dived. So thank the vax gods. But I sure as heck don’t want to pass it along. I’ll just stay home.

  15. 15.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Cermet: ​

    without the massive and complex infrastructure to kept (refrigerate), distribute (trucks), administer (needles, syringes, trained people, and more) the vast majority of 3rd world countries can’t use large numbers of vaccines.

    The US could fix this in a lot of poorer places around the world in the same way it can drop a battalion of US Marines anywhere on the planet in three days from a standing start, pretty much. As I’ve said before the US is the world expert in logistics, moving the right amount of people and necessary materials anywhere in the shortest possible time and getting stuff done (although the Chinese are coming up on the outside really fast). It wouldn’t take much for the US to put together vax-in-a-box teams with air-transportable refrigeration equipment, sterile injection materials and boots-on-the-ground vaccinators and trainers for the locals to take over after a few weeks.

    Negotiating access rights is another matter, usually the US does this at the point of a cruise missile and that’s probably not the best way to proceed in this case.

  17. 17.

    Xentik

    @NotMax: I’ve been wishing for a while they’d come up with a better term for it. It’s bugged me for a while since there seem to have always been two competing definitions of “herd immunity” used.  The first is the percentage at which exponential growth is prevented, which is dependent upon R0, and the other is ~95% or so, which is the point at which immunocompromised or otherwise-unable-to-get-vaccinated members of the population are effectively protected by the immunity of the population as a whole.

  18. 18.

    YY_Sima Qian

    On 7/24 China reported 5 new domestic confirmed & 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases.

    Yunnan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case (mild, a Chinese national), at Ruili in Dehong Prefecture. 6 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 74 domestic confirmed & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 community at Ruili remains at High Risk. 1 village at Ruili & 1 village at Longchuan County remain at Medium Risk.

    Jiangsu Province

    • Nanjing reported 2 new domestic confirmed (both moderate) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases. All new positive cases are workers at the airport or their traced close contacts. There currently are 37 domestic confirmed (14 mild & 23 moderate) & 20 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. The city has completed the 1st round of mass screening of all ~ 9.5M residents, & has commenced the 2nd round. 1 village was elevated to High Risk. 1 village, 1 sub-district & 4 residential compounds were elevated to Medium Risk. There are currently 1 village & 1 sub-district at High Risk, & 10 residential compounds, 1 sub-distric, 2 communities & 13 villages at Medium Risk.
    • Suqian did not report any new domestic positive cases, there is 1 domestic asymptomatic case there.

    He County in Anhui Province did not report any new domestic positive cases, there is 1 domestic asymptomatic case there.

    Shenyang in Liaoning Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases. The had traveled from Xiamen in Fujian Province on 7/14, w/ short layover at Nanjing. The 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases are traced close contacts of the domestic confirmed case. There are 1 domestic confirmed & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases there. 1 residential building was elevated to Medium Risk.

    Zhongshan in Guangdong Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case (previously asymptomatic), a person returning from Nanjing. So far, 319 F1 & 79 F2 close contacts have been traced & placed under quarantine.

    Mianyang in Sichuan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There is currently 1 domestic confirmed case there. 1 factory was elevated to Medium Risk.

    Imported Cases

    On 7/24, China reported 27 new imported confirmed cases, 13 imported asymptomatic cases:

    • Yunnan Province (locations not specified) – 6 confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic), all Chinese nationals returning from Myanmar via land border crossing
    • Guangzhou in Guangdong Province – 4 confirmed cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from the UK (via Amsterdam Schiphol), Bangladesh, Myanmar, & a foreign crew member off a cargo ship w/ last port of call in Egypt; 5 asymptomatic cases, 3 Chinese nationals returning from Egypt & 1 each from the UK (via Amsterdam Schiphol) & Myanmar
    • Foshan in Guangdong Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from Egypt, off a flight that landed at Guangzhou; 2 asymptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from the Ukraine & Egypt, off flights that landed at Guangzhou
    • Qingyuan in Guangdong Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from the Philippines, off a flight that landed at Guangzhou
    • Shanghai Municipality – 4 confirmed cases, 2 Chinese nationals returning from Japan & 1 each from Romania (via Germany) & the US
    • Xiamen in Fujian Province – 4 confirmed cases, 2 Mainland Chinese residents returning from Taiwan & 1 Chinese national each returning from Thailand & the UK (via Amsterdam Schiphol)
    • Hohhot in Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region – 2 confirmed cases, both off a flight diverted from Beijing, no further information released
    • Changsha in Hunan Province- 2 confirmed cases (both previously asymptomatic), no information released
    • Chengdu in Sichuan Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from the Dominican Republic (via Frankfurt)
    • Tianjin Municipality – 1 confirmed case, no information released, yet; 1 asymptomatic cases, a Chinese national returning from Guinea (via Paris CdG)
    • Zhengzhou in Henan Province – 1 confirmed case (previously asymptomatic), no information released
    • Lanzhou in Gansu Province – 1 confirmed case, coming from Russia
    • Jiangsu Province (location not specified) – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released
    • Changchun in Jilin Province  – 1 asymptomatic case, coming from South Korea
    • Shenyang in Liaoning Province – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released
    • Qingdao in Shandong Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Ukrainian crew member off a cargo ship w/ last port of call In Singapore

    Overall in China, 21 confirmed cases recovered, 17 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation & 7 were reclassified as confirmed cases, and 619 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 692 active confirmed cases in the country (578 imported), 17 in serious condition (16 imported), 437 asymptomatic cases (406 imported), 3 suspect cases (all imported). 9,509 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.

    As of 7/24, 1,538.707M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 13.81M doses in the past 24 hrs.

    On 7/25, Hong Kong reported 3 new positive cases, all imported (from Tanzania, Russia & Spain).

  19. 19.

    germy

    There are warnings the next few months could be very difficult for the vast majority of children who are unvaccinated.  According to one doctor in Arkansas, half of the children currently hospitalized with COVID-19 are “old enough to be vaccinated but have not received the vaccine yet”.  He said these adolescents are “the ones that are in the ICU that have COVID-pneumonia and are requiring significant support”. He also said that hospitalization rates are increasing, and incidental COVID-19 diagnoses are now uncommon.  Additionally, there may be long-term consequences we cannot currently appreciate. Articles that suggest healthy children should not be vaccinated against COVID-19 rarely mention any of this, even as they invariably mention the shorter, less frequent hospitalizations caused by vaccine-induced myocarditis

    https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-reflections-on-a-failed-prediction/

  20. 20.

    Soprano2

    Well, unfortunately we ended up at the ER because my mom started having dark stools, and her stomach hurts some. It’s not as crazy as I’d heard right now,  but not great either. There are no Covid checks at all. There are isolation rooms, I assume that’s where the possible Covid patients are. I did laugh when a woman came in gasping, asking for a breathing treatment. The guy at the desk asked her if she’d heard of this virus going around, and could she have been exposed to it.  LOL I would assume that if you live here you’ve probably been exposed to Covid. I’m operating on about 3 1/2 hours of sleep, so I’m off to find some coffee.

  21. 21.

    germy

    @Soprano2:   There are no Covid checks at all.

    I have a friend in Jamaica who says they check your temperature before you can enter a grocery store.

  22. 22.

    The Thin Black Duke

    Here’s my latest rant about where we’re at. My bottom line? The anti-vaxxers can’t die off fast enough. This country can’t move forward until they’re out of the way.

  25. 25.

    Cermet

    On an interesting front on understanding the Delta virus, Chinese scientist are doing outstanding work and proving that they too are critical in this fight. They have shown that one reason the Delta is so bad is it is detectable after only 3.7 days from a person infected unlike the old Covid that took 5.6 days. This definitely shows that vastly more viral agents are produced by Delta.

    See: https://www.livescience.com/covid-delta-variant-transmission.html

     

    Well, sad news on the science front: Steven Weinberg, Ph.D. – the person that more than any united two fundamental forces of nature (the electro-magnetic and weak forces) has passed (July 24.) He won the Nobel prize in physics for this major break-through.

  26. 26.

    Amir Khalid

    Malaysia’s Director-General of Health Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah reports a record high of 17,045 new Covid-19 cases today in his media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 1,013,458 cases. He also reports 92 new deaths today, for a cumulative total of 7,994 deaths — 0.79% of the cumulative reported total, 0.94% of resolved cases.

    There are currently 160,903 active and contagious cases; 970 are in ICU, 501 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 9,683 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 844,541 patients recovered – 83.33% of the cumulative reported total.

    34 new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 3,452 clusters. 992 clusters are currently active; 2,460 clusters are now inactive.

    17,039 new cases today are local infections. Selangor reports 8,499 local cases: 175 in clusters, 4,884 close-contact screenings, and 3,440 other screenings. Kuala Lumpur reports 2,040 local cases: 345 in clusters, 1,073 close-contact screenings, and 622 other screenings. Kedah reports 1,216 cases: 487 in clusters, 474 close-contact screenings, and 255 other screenings.

    Johor reports 950 cases: 317 in clusters, 461 close-contact screenings, and 172 other screenings.

    Sabah reports 818 cases: 209 in clusters, 364 close-contact screenings, and 245 other screenings.

    Perak reports 609 cases: 262 in clusters, 104 close-contact screenings, and 243 other screenings.

    Penang reports 573 cases: 111 in clusters, 246 close-contact screenings, and 216 other screenings. Negeri Sembilan reports 513 cases: 60 in clusters, 356 close-contact screenings, and 97 other screenings.

    Pahang reports 424 cases: 190 in clusters, 187 close-contact screenings, and 47 other screenings. Sarawak reports 407 cases: 16 in clusters, 286 close-contact screenings, and 105 other screenings.

    Melaka reports 370 cases: 89 in clusters, 220 close-contact screenings, and 61 other screenings.

    Terengganu reports 273 cases: 87 in clusters, 116 close-contact screenings, and 70 other screenings. Kelantan reports 266 cases: 146 in clusters, 86 close-contact screenings, and 34 other screenings.

    Putrajaya reports 50 cases: 28 close-contact screenings and 22 other screenings. Labuan reports 21 cases: one in a cluster, 12 close-contact screenings, and eight other screenings. Perlis reports 10 cases, all close-contact screenings.

    Six new cases today are imported: five in Kuala Lumpur and one in Selangor.

    The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 417,738 doses of vaccine on 24th July: 284,672 first doses and 133,066 second doses. As of midnight yesterday, the cumulative total is 16,904,896 doses administered: 11,507,070 first doses and 5,397,826 second doses. 16.5% of the population are fully vaccinated.

  27. 27.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Cermet: A lot of vaccinated people with Delta COVID do get sick– they’re “mild” infections in the clinical sense that they don’t end up on ventilators, but “mild” in that sense can be worse than the worst flu you’ve ever had. Many of the vaccinated people who got sick in the Provincetown outbreak are really miserable.

  30. 30.

    charon

    Delta is too infectious to be suppressed with only vaccination, combined vaccination and behavior change is needed.

  31. 31.

    NorthLeft12

    Regarding the evil dumbass from Maine who actively sought out the virus for himself and anyone he came in contact with…..any mea culpa or epiphany with respect to his previous behaviour will be believed by, and impact, exactly zero people.

    Just like the Tennessee radio host, and I am sure thousands of others.

  32. 32.

    prostratedragon

    May I add my condolences to Thin Black Duke, and to Ken. Will think good thoughts for Soprano and her mother.

  34. 34.

    Cermet

    @Matt McIrvin: Hardly “a lot”; really, don’t exaggerate. Break through infections (and most are just positive tests with no real symptoms or mild, and very few require hospitalization) are under 2% from the data I’ve seen. Most those that get rather sick are likely compromised – over weight, diabetic or pre-diabetic, or somehow immune compromised. Not buying that Covid is a real threat for fully vaccinated healthy people – but if you have data, that would be useful.

  35. 35.

    Cermet

    @charon: Any one fully vaccinated can get covid – duh. Vaccines do not prevent infection when a person is exposed. It simply enables the person to clear the virus before it can cause harm. Until ‘herd immunity” is reached, yes, Delta will burn through unvaccinated (causing death, long covid, and organ damage) as well as vaccinated (and almost no one in this group will suffer death, and extremely few hospitalization.) Being vaccinated means one doesn’t get sick, not that they can’t catch the virus. That isn’t how ANY vaccine works.

  36. 36.

    Cermet

    @Betsy: See my previous post at #35. Since Delta is extremely contagious and there are so many unvaccinated people, it is highly likely most vaccinated people will be exposed, get covid, and never know it because they don’t get sick at all.

     

    I should add – while it is unknow if vaccinated can still infect others in a narrow window of time, no one knows but I highly doubt it. So, when enough have been vaccinated or get covid, we could end the outbreak …that least, for awhile.

  37. 37.

    Ken

    @Betsy: As I understand, it’s correct in that vaccinations don’t prevent you from becoming infected by the virus. They just mean that your immune system immediately goes into “INTRUDER ALERT KILL KILL KILL” mode and the virus doesn’t get a chance to make you really sick.

    It’s the same for all vaccinations, and for “natural” immunity for that matter. I’ve probably “caught” measles a dozen times since I got my childhood vaccines, and never noticed.

  38. 38.

    smith

    @NorthLeft12: Someone, I think on BJ, referred to the deaths of covid-denier anti-vaxxers as the Covid Rapture, which seems apt.

    It occurred to me that we’re now going through some kind of inverted Rapture. I always thought that the main attraction of the Rapture for “Christians” was not the anticipation of meeting Jeebus, but the opportunity to be finally proven right. As they ascend to heaven, they won’t look up to see their Maker, but rather down on the heathens below wailing and gnashing their teeth in agony, and getting the greatest satisfaction of their existence from saying, “Told you so! Nyah, nyah, nyah!”

    That’s how I feel about covidiots dying of covid.

  41. 41.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Ken: The virus, obviously, physically gets into your body. Whether that’s an infection depends on how one defines infection. There is such a concept as “sterilizing immunity” where the infection gets knocked down so fast that it’s not even detectable. The COVID vaccines aren’t at that level, not for everyone at least (for some young people they might be).

    In the particular case of COVID, there seems to be a distinction between infections that stay in the upper-respiratory system and infections that proliferate in the lungs and circulatory system. The vaccines protect well against the second type (which kills), not as well against the first type (which can be a bad cold). The upper-respiratory infections can lead to spreading the virus, though, because the virus actually is reproducing there.

  43. 43.

    germy

    While the delta variant is more contagious, the available vaccines still cover it well, about 80-90% effective (compared to 95% for the original variant). But even better, the vaccines are almost 100% effective at preventing severe disease, including hospitalization and deaths. New hospitalizations with the delta variant are almost entirely unvaccinated individuals. There is also a clear regional pattern here, with red states having lower vaccination rates and higher infection rates than blue states. There is no mystery what is going on here – anti-vaccination sentiments have been embraced by the political right. I see this in my own patients.

    This explains the Biden administration’s pivot toward tackling vaccine misinformation – because that is now the limiting factor to achieving sufficient immunity to shut down this pandemic. Again, this is one of those times when I hate to be right. Humanity’s greatest threat is itself. We are very clever, and can develop amazing technology. Developing effective vaccines in a year was an amazing scientific achievement. But that means nothing in the face of misinformation, conspiracy thinking, and dedicated anti-science campaigns. We are more dangerous to ourselves than this virus. In short, the greatest risk to humanity is our own stupidity.

    https://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/were-losing-the-vaccine-race/

  44. 44.

    charon

    @Cermet:

     

    Probably best to just scroll past you, less aggravation – better for my mood..

     

    Thing is, I do so hate being patronized.

  45. 45.

    NorthLeft12

    I read or heard something about the need to reintroduce indoor mask mandates and other restrictions to stop the spread of Covid-19 among the unvaccinated.
    I understand that, but unfortunately the willfully unvaccinated are also the least likely to follow any protective mandates.

    Note: Was in the mall yesterday for the first time since March 2020, and saw five unmasked people. All white, all males. Two adults with children. Won’t be going back for awhile.

  46. 46.

    Robert Sneddon

    @NorthLeft12: Masks as worn by Joe and Jane Public aren’t going to do much to prevent the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 for various reasons. The Delta variant is a lot more transmissable than earlier variants and badly fitted low-performance Etsy masks just don’t provide real protection against infection nowadays (and they weren’t that good to start with).

  47. 47.

    Sloane Ranger

    Saturday in the UK we had 31,795 new cases. This is a DECREASE in the rolling 7-day average of 4.5%. This is obviously good news and I had noticed that numbers of new cases have been declining over the last 3 days but it’s still too early to know if this is a long term trend or just a blip, especially as weekend figures are depressed by office closures, Wales not reporting etc. If the downward trend continues over the next week, I will begin to feel cautiously optimistic. Anyway, new cases by nation,

    England – 28,968 (down 3824)

    Northern Ireland – 1520 (up 183)

    Scotland – 1307 (down 198)

    Wales – Does not report on Saturday’s).

    Deaths – There were 86 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday. This is an increase of 57.4% in the rolling 7-day average. Usual weekend warnings apply but, of the deaths reported, 74 were in England, 1 in Northern Ireland and 11 in Scotland.

    Testing – Not updated at weekends.

    Hospitalisations – Not updated at weekends.

    Vaccinations – As of 23 July, 46,519,998 people had received 1 shot of a vaccine and 36,953,691 had had both. This means that 88% of all adults in the UK have had 1 shot and 69.9% were fully vaccinated as of that date.

    General – Our “Health” Minister Sajid Javid has had to publicly apologise for saying that people should no longer “cower” from coronavirus in a tweet where he announced he had made a full recovery after catching it. He was accused by Survivors Groups of being insensitive. Javid has now deleted his original tweet.

  51. 51.

    Kent

    @lowtechcyclist:

    All those soon-to-expire vaccines could be on refrigerated trucks to Mexico.  Hand them over to the Mexican government, let them distribute.
    If there’s enough time left before they expire, send ’em to central and South America, Africa, India, wherever.  But stuff can be put on a truck today, and be in Mexico tomorrow. There’s simply no excuse there.
    Whatever legal obstacles are in the way, either Biden or Congress needs to clear them out.  It’s insane that we’re not sending all of our surplus abroad.​
    ETA: I’ve already called my Congresspersons up about this. They’ll be hearing from me again tomorrow.

    The problem is that these surplus vaccines aren’t setting on pallets in central state warehouses ready to ship elsewhere.  They are distributed across hundreds or thousands of clinics and pharmacies in refrigerators and there isn’t any sort of reverse collection system to hoover it all up, consolidate it, transport and store in properly chilled containers, etc.  The distribution network is one-way.  In addition, there isn’t any decision process for a small clinic or pharmacy to determine how much vaccine to keep and how much to send back, even if there was a mechanism to do so.

  52. 52.

    Bill Arnold

    As usual, assume that numbers from Russia are lies in an attempt to boost Russia’s international standing., and that the true numbers (for deaths at least) are about 4X reported numbers. As the Moscow Times piece says in the first paragraph, bold mine:

    Russia has confirmed 6,126,541 cases of coronavirus and 153,874 deaths, according to the national coronavirus information center. Russia’s total excess fatality count since the start of the coronavirus pandemic is around 483,000.

    It’s possible that they are gradually fudging the numbers slightly closer to reality, but more likely that the very high R0 Delta variant plus a very low level of indoors precautions in the general population is boosting the numbers, and even possible that the current Russian numbers are worse lies than in the past.
    (Oh, and blatant lies about COVID-19 are a useful prior for assumptions that any other Russian public statements are lies. )

  53. 53.

    Kent

    @Robert Sneddon:

    The US could fix this in a lot of poorer places around the world in the same way it can drop a battalion of US Marines anywhere on the planet in three days from a standing start, pretty much. As I’ve said before the US is the world expert in logistics, moving the right amount of people and necessary materials anywhere in the shortest possible time and getting stuff done (although the Chinese are coming up on the outside really fast). It wouldn’t take much for the US to put together vax-in-a-box teams with air-transportable refrigeration equipment, sterile injection materials and boots-on-the-ground vaccinators and trainers for the locals to take over after a few weeks.

    Negotiating access rights is another matter, usually the US does this at the point of a cruise missile and that’s probably not the best way to proceed in this case.

    I think you severely over-estimate the size of the US military and severely underestimate the size of the 3rd world.  It is FAR FAR to vast to be solved by some sort of 1st world vaccine Peace Corps.

    This only gets done when countries figure out how to do it for themselves as I suspect most that have functioning governments will eventually do.  Failed states like Haiti or Somalia are a different issue.

  54. 54.

    Soprano2

    So, my only update is that we’re still in the ER waiting room. About 30 minutes ago a tech swabbed my mother for flu, RSV, and Covid. She said the results should take about an hour. Something I’ve never seen before – they come to the waiting room to draw blood and take vitals.  The waiting room isn’t that crowded,  but the other hospital in our area has a 24-hr urgent care, so I suspect a lot of people are going there. I’m so tired, I got about 4 hrs of sleep before she woke me up.

  56. 56.

    NotMax

    @Kent

    Excellent points. Plus with the initial intention to inundate the supply side, there are bound to be endpoints of overstock. Coupled with unevenly distributed locales experiencing less (sometimes much less) than anticipated demand.

    If you build it, they will refuse to come is by now (unfortunately) an all too real factor and I’d posit never much of an expectation of becoming so and compensating for in designing the programs.

  57. 57.

    Fair Economist

    @NotMax: There’s no sustained herd immunity to any coronavirus (really any respiratory virus). Immunity fades too quickly. You can catch the same cold virus over and over again during your lifetime. The protection from death and serious disease is real and strong, and much more durable but it’s still going to circulate.

  58. 58.

    Soprano2

    Good news/bad news, mom is negative for flu, RSV, and Covid. The bad news is that means we’re going to be here a lot longer while they try to figure out what’s wrong.

  59. 59.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Kent: I’m not expecting any sort of international COVID19-vaccine delivery campaign to be done by the US military. For a lot of countries simply arranging deliveries of vaccine and supplies via COVAX or USAid or whatever will help a lot, leaving the rest to local infrastructure but for some other countries there just isn’t any local infrastructure to start with or it’s hopelessly corrupt or fragmented or generally untrustworthy. That’s where vax-in-a-box might do some good.

  60. 60.

    PaulB

    @charon: @charon: 

    Probably best to just scroll past you, less aggravation – better for my mood..

    To be honest, based on posting history, you won’t be missing much. That particular individual is not known for the accuracy of their posts on the coronavirus threads.

  61. 61.

    Bill Arnold

    @Robert Sneddon:

    Masks as worn by Joe and Jane Public aren’t going to do much to prevent the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 for various reasons. The Delta variant is a lot more transmissable than earlier variants and badly fitted low-performance Etsy masks just don’t provide real protection against infection nowadays (and they weren’t that good to start with).

    It is very true that the Delta variant is more transmissible (the original wild type SARS-CoV2 was probably R0 around 4, not 2.5; 2.5 was with some limited public health measures. Delta is like 8+)
    However, continued anti-masker assertions are deadly, since most people will be unable (and/or unwilling) to maintain isolation for the long haul. Find a single documented superspreader event where the index patient and most of the other people were all wearing face coverings. (With delta, it’ll be more like where “everybody unvaccinated in the room became infected from the index patient”.) If one is in a indoor environment where the spreaders are unlikely to be masked, N95 or equivalent  should be pushed; there is plenty of supply. If masking is universal, less so, since source control is a big part of how masks control spread (outflowing particles are bigger, and masks can redirect flow  of exhalations even if(when) leaky. There is now sufficient science that this is not an unfounded assertion.

    This recent Science piece is a readable framework for thinking about the probabilities involved. There are disagreements about levels of effectiveness of various non-pharmaceutical measures, of course, but there is a lot of new science; at least several times as many papers as all papers on face masks prior to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with some attempting analysis of universal masking as a pandemic control (mostly natural experiments via differences in jurisdictions), something never done (well certainly not done well) prior to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
    Face masks effectively limit the probability of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (25 Jun 2021)

  64. 64.

    Chris T.

    @Bill Arnold: I like to say that Delta Covid is a lot like measles. https://www.cdc.gov/measles/transmission.html

    One person with measles enters a room, coughs once, and most of the people in the room now have measles. (If they’re vaccinated, most of them fight it off right away.) Technically the R0 for measles is apparently classified as 12-18 (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28757186/), which is bigger than 8, but it’s about right for how people should think about both diseases. (The linked paper says that 12-18 is not really correct but does not provide a different range.)

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