The basis for the CDC recommendation for masking up indoors in high transmission areas was a study of a spreading event in Provincetown, MA over the 4th of July:
Critically, the study found that vaccinated individuals carried as much virus in their noses as unvaccinated individuals, and that vaccinated people could spread the virus to each other. […]
Scientists said the Provincetown outbreak and other recent data on breakthrough infections make clear that the vaccines do work, as hoped, against severe illness and death, but do not offer blanket protection against any chance of infection. Only a handful of people in the outbreak were hospitalized, but four of them were fully vaccinated. […]
The study’s authors note that Massachusetts has a high vaccination rate and the virus was still able to spread.
“Findings from this investigation suggest that even jurisdictions without substantial or high COVID-19 transmission might consider expanding prevention strategies, including masking in indoor public settings regardless of vaccination status,” they write. […]
The study makes clear that vaccines offer significant protection, but do not prevent infection entirely even among the fully vaccinated. On July 3, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health reported a 14-day average of zero covid-19 cases per 100,000 in Barnstable County — but by July 17, that number had increased to 177 cases per 100,000.
“This report demonstrates that vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 is not perfect, particularly in a setting with a highly contagious variant, in a large group in close contact, even if most are vaccinated against the virus,” said Gregg Gonsalves, associate professor at the Yale School of Public Health. “The good news here: If you’re vaccinated, refrain from large group gatherings and mask up, chances are good you’ll be okay. This is not 2020. But we’re not out of the woods.”
I excerpted quite a bit because the details are discouraging but not a reason to panic. The key point as recorded in the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report that’s the basis for this story is that none of the 4 hospitalized vaccinated persons died, and only 4 of the 346 vaccinated persons were hospitalized. I think it changes some of my assumptions about what I need to do, as a vaccinated person, to protect myself and others — specifically, I’m masking up in public indoors again, even though I’m in a low transmission/high vaccination rate area. (And, “mask up” for me is a KN-95 or KF-94 mask.)
Gin & Tonic
In P-Town, people tend to get *very very close* to each other. This isn’t “going to Wegman’s” proximity.
Old School
Was the Provincetown 4th of July event indoors?
Damien
Soooo vaccinated people in a large indoor crowd with a spreader event had approximately a 1.15% chance of being hospitalized and a 0% fatality rate. I definitely fail to see the need to panic with these kind of numbers, but maybe someone else can explain it in a scarier way
I’m still wearing a cloth mask when I go out, since I’m a good, responsible social citizen, but come on let’s not lie to each other that vaccinated people are the problem here and need to be terrified again.
beef
@Damien
If this scares some fools into getting vaccinated, it’s OK by me.
Old School
@Old School: It seems the event included a number of crowded bars and restaurants.
dmsilev
As I understand it, the finding is that a viral colony in the nose is enough to allow transmission, but it won’t really make you sick. It’s only when the virus migrates towards the lungs that (a) the vaccine induces an immune response and (b) there’s a chance of serious illness. So, _if_ we had a high vaccination fraction, this wouldn’t be a big deal, but because roughly 27% of the country are, well, the 27% we know and hate, there’s substantial spread and substantial risk of serious infections.
VOR
@Damien: I think the real surprise is the greater ability of vaccinated people to carry the virus and hence spread it. Yes, vaccinated people still have decent protection but it isn’t 100% and there are still people out there who have impaired immune systems or simply cannot be vaccinated. And children, of course.
I personally am losing sympathy for the willfully unvaccinated. I got my ass vaccinated as soon as humanly possible without jumping the line.
Old School
@Damien: I don’t think anyone is saying vaccinated people are the problem. It’s more along the lines that we’ve got to step up again to try to protect the ill-informed/morons.
trollhattan
Our county case count, case rate, and test positivity all exceed this period one year ago. Death rate is significantly lower now, surely a product of vaccination of vulnerable populations, but has gone up this month. Hospitalizations and ICU counts are also lower than a year ago but have more than tripled over the last three weeks, which is concerning because the increase seems to be accelerating.
They only post vaccination counts weekly and the next update hopefully shows a big increase, because new vaccinations have been very few all month.
Baud
I got vaccinated specifically so I could once again stick my tongue up people’s noses. Now you’re telling me it was all for nothing. No wonder no one trusts the government.
They Call Me Blue
I’m one of those people that never stopped wearing a mask when in a public indoor space other than once or twice when I forgot one going to the grocery store.
I’m flying down to L.A. next week to visit my 94 year old mother who I haven’t seen in two years. Wish I’d gone down for 4th of July but she was pretty adamant that she didn’t want anything like the usual family & friend get togethers we’ve historically had on the 4th, and my presence would have likely led to something more like that, so August it is. Delta variant and all.
Went to Costco today and they had N95 masks, grabbed a box as I’ll feel safer on a plane with one as opposed to double masking with cloth over medical like we did for awhile. I’ve accepted the fact that masking in public is going to be our reality for a while.
VeniceRiley
@VOR: I reserve my sympathy for the impacted health providers. Actions remain the same, but the sympathy shift keeps me from resenting having to continue with extra precautions.
zhena gogolia
I live in a small town that hardly ever has protests. In fact I can’t remember ever seeing one. But on the way home earlier today, not far from our house there were a bunch of yahoos out with signs reading “UNMASK OUR KIDS!” I begged my husband to stop the car so I could get out and yell at them, but he wouldn’t.
scav
I rather enjoy the fact (entirely unfortunate in the larger sense) that the vaccinated can still infect the unvaccinated — we’re actually all equally armed, it’s just one side that refusing point blank to put on their bullet-proof vests in the name of freedom.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Gin & Tonic:
Josh Barro made a point along those lines
OTOH: I wonder what the bars and vaccination rates are like in Sturgis (ETA: rally starts next Friday, runs for a week), and what the youths do when the music ends at Lollapalooza (just typing that made me feel a bit like Bob Hope dressing up to play The Fonz four years after Happy Days had jumped the shark).
Damien
@VOR: I lost my sympathy for them as soon as a new wave picked up speed because of them. I have nothing but concern for the immune compromised and children who can’t be vaccinated, and I keep reminding myself that’s who I’m masking for.
I genuinely don’t care one iota about the unvaccinated by choice crowd. There was a story a little bit ago where it was supposed to tug on the heartstrings how these unvaccinated doors were grabbing their doctor’s hand and begging for the vaccine before they’re intubated, and the doctor has to tell them it’s too late. And frankly, my only reaction was: you sowed the wind, stoopid.
MisterForkbeard
I hope findings like this prompt them to allow children to get the vaccine faster. As it is, I’m pretty certain that delta will explode amongst schoolkids when school starts in 3 weeks, and the vaccines aren’t currently expected to be approved until November/December timeframes.
Also bad: Schools mostly allowed the option of doing remote work, but this option was something you could sign into only when the virus wasn’t rising quickly. The ability to opt-in to remote schooling was closed a couple of weeks ago for most schools in my area, and now it’s too late.
hrprogressive
The wild part about all this is that as of last night, I was truly experiencing high levels of “fuck everything, nothing matters” nihilism at the idea that the Vaccinated were cultivating just as much virus as the Disease Vectors, and thus, we were careening towards a Perma-Pandemic.
But significant, and well-reasoned, and thorough readings of the full leaked/published data by Science Twitter…made me more confused, and slightly less “Fuckitol” than prior.
The V/E still seems to be really high.
The study in question seems to be very, very…uh…specific? Maybe that’s not the right word, but there appear to be extrapolations made from this one event that do not necessarily correlate to an “ZOMG PANDEMIC #2 Y’ALL” posture.
Again, I’ve been out in N95 and double fabric for the last two months, which, is the first time in over a year that I’ve actually *been in public spaces*.
There is definitely an uptick in my region, which is troubling.
But there are others pointing out how “Delta Waves” appear to hit hard, fast, and *may* recede quickly too as it encounters Vaccinated and Prior Infections…
We still need to Wait and See, but the NYT headlines appear to be getting roundly trashed by people with the experience and background to say so.
So…
Status Quo instead of Permanent Pandemic?
Time will tell.
VOR
@VeniceRiley: I have enormous sympathy for healthcare personnel who have been fighting in the trenches for 18 months.
Cermet
While I will admit I would enjoy the unvaccinated getting very ill, running up medical debt, and even adding long Covid to that list. But die, that is too tragic even for me to hope for – I hate these people and thugs in general but certainly not to that extent. I hope people start waking up to the danger (esp. for their tweens/teens) and getting the shot. But one way or another, by late Fall the Delta will likely burn through most unvaccinated.
trollhattan
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
They should go ahead and rename the Sturgis thing “Darwin’s Trapdoor.”
JPL
@Cermet: Although I understand your feelings, I only wish those unvaccinated felt the same way. They really don’t care who they spread it to and who dies along the way.
Matt McIrvin
@hrprogressive:
The key thing is, they’re not cultivating as much virus. The ones who get infected maybe are, but being vaccinated still brings the probability of getting infected way down, though not to zero. These things are very, very hard to talk about coherently without a lot of math, and the newspaper articles never have the math.
So there was a superspreader event in Provincetown, but compare that to Branson or Lake of the Ozarks and it’s just not on the same level.
dr. bloor
@Gin & Tonic:
Yeah. I commented somewhere–maybe here–that taking a small spit of land, jacking up the population by a factor of twenty, and putting them in small bistros, B and B’s, and boutiques for hours on end is a pretty stiff test of vaccine efficacy. TBH, the results are as good as anyone could hope for.
Suzanne
@MisterForkbeard:
School started in Phoenix this week.
I am rethinking sending my fifth-grader in person.
wmd
I presently have a mild breakthrough case of Covid from attending a live music event at a local bar last Saturday. It wasn’t crowded.
My employer made free weekly at home testing available to employees early on; I’ve been using it since December. Sent in my test on Monday. I’d had a bit of post nasal drip in the morning and thought nothing of it. Read about the bar closing due to an outbreak on Tuesday and was anxious to get my test back – which was a day later than normal. Got the positive result Thursday, immediately reviewed contacts since Saturday and called the manager at the high school swimming pool – I’d had some conversations with staff about my son’s role in Lydia Jaboby’s gold medal before and after my daily swim.
I’m isolating for 2 weeks now. Symptoms are confined to runny nose and headache so far. Fully vaccinated with Moderna since April 24.
Ironically I’d told bartender I’d be curtailing social activity for a few weeks the day I got infected – the transmission rate had crossed my informal threshold. Sigh.
Betty Cracker
@zhena gogolia: My husband is the same kind of party pooper. (“They probably have guns, blah, blah, blah.”) Were you at least able to flip them off?
CaseyL
Has anyone heard from WaterGirl? She was exposed to Covid last week and was starting to feel symptomatic yesterday.
O. Felix Culpa
@Suzanne: I totally understand, especially without vaccine approval yet for the under-twelves.
I’m supposed to fly to Germany next month to visit family and do a little touring. Not sure if that trip is going to happen now. I’m monitoring developments both here and in Germany, but the prospects aren’t looking great. Thanks, anti-vaxxers.
JPL
@Suzanne: Are you still in PA.?
geg6
@Cermet:
I am not as forgiving as you are. I hope every one of them dies.
Cameron
For the last couple of months I’ve seen fewer and fewer people wearing masks where l live. COVID cases numbers started climbing again a few weeks ago….and I continue to see the number of mask wearers decrease. I have no clue what’s going on.
Major Major Major Major
Not me. I wear masks inside and don’t attend extremely cramped half-orgies, which is what Ptown is like on a holiday weekend with bad weather. The CDC says 35k symptomatic infections a week among the unvaccinated. This is around 10-15% of the cases right now. Perfectly consistent with the ~85% efficacy against delta found in the UK.
O. Felix Culpa
@Cameron: In my corner of the southwest, mask-wearing nearly disappeared for a few weeks. But it has come roaring back: in yesterday’s foray to Trader Joe’s and Lowe’s, the majority of customers were wearing masks again.
raven
gonna get along without you now
raven
@Major Major Major Major: What’s a “half orgy”?
Nutmeg again
I made the near-fatal mistake of suggesting that it was common sense for kids to wear masks. (I usually respond with,. “Do you think kids should wear underpants?”) on a local FB list. Boy, that was dumb of me! It’s so weird to see their arguments, though… like, “kids under 12 cannot wear masks properly”… Dear Maude, help us with a vaccine for stupidity.
Cameron
@O. Felix Culpa: I’d like to think it’s because more people have been vaccinated and are feeling confident. Unfortunately this is Florida, so I can’t make that assumption.
Major Major Major Major
@raven: a gay resort town. It’s not like you’re at the orgies the entire time. Sometimes you’re just taking drugs/drinking and yelling at each other in crowded bars.
MomSense
I don’t even want a mild or asymptomatic version of this plague. There are some disturbing long term cognitive and heart complications I’d like to avoid. I feel like we are going to have a ton of people with COVID disabilities.
Captain C
@Cameron:
Nor do they.
West of the Cascades
@Cermet: “too ill to ever go to the polls again because their repulsive state forbids vote-by-mail” would suffice for me.
MisterForkbeard
@Suzanne: Yeah. We’re trying to figure out if there’s a way to keep our 4 and 6 year olds home. The four year old has been itching to go to school for months, so it’ll break her heart. But there might not be a way to do it at this point.
raven
@Major Major Major Major: Aha, I should have known!
Major Major Major Major
@geg6:
Sometimes I feel this way but then I remember things like “only 31% of black people in NYC are vaccinated” (AAPI highest at 71%) and I remember that it’s not all about politics.
Chief Oshkosh
So, where can one obtain reliable KN-95 or KF-94 masks?
hrprogressive
@Matt McIrvin:
I am reading more and more nuance on this particular story, and one person suggested that this cohort may have had higher incidence of being immunocompromised too.
Which…
A lot of people have been saying that the immunocompromised in general were at much higher risks for breakthroughs anyway…
So…
I just.
I’m frustrated, because, I vacillate between “Holy shit we might get out of this finally” to “Holy shit this is the end of humanity as we knew it in Summer 2019, anyway”
I was definitely at the latter last night and this morning.
I’m…firmly in the middle right now, because there is…a lot of nuance that the headlines aren’t capturing, and most maddeningly, the CDC *ISN’T ACTIVELY COMMUNICATING*
Ugh.
O. Felix Culpa
@Cameron: Unlike Florida, we actually have a high vaccination rate. Unfortunately we’re also a tourist destination and are currently overrun with Texans, who not only ignore traffic laws but are also unlikely percentage-wise to be vaccinated. I think the locals aren’t taking chances.
Edited for clarity.
hrprogressive
@Chief Oshkosh:
FWIW I purchased some N95’s on Amazon back in April.
They are not 3M which were still restricted last I knew, and I understand there may be hesitancy in purchasing foreign-made such masks due to potential for forgery.
I found one that claimed NIOSH certification, and was able to independently verify through the CDC’s website that said company and mask was, in fact, certified by NIOSH as meeting the N95 standard.
To the extent one can validate that information and feel “comfortable” about it, I did, and am.
I would recommend similar due diligence.
Brachiator
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Of course, the thing is that this is not an atypical situation. Previously no one really thought much about social spaces and relevant diseases, but this is the post pandemic reality.
The problem is that idiots insist on a simplistic “all clear, return to normal!” reality where neither masks nor any other protective measures need to considered.
And it is just sad to see some states passing laws to prevent public health authorities from doing anything to protect the public.
Yeah, it’s a death cult.
Chief Oshkosh
@zhena gogolia: Depending upon the state, you could’ve just asked him to drive through them. Legally you’d’ve been on safer ground and the outcome wrt to anti-vac protesters would’ve been more effective.
JPL
I volunteered at North Fulton Community Charities for years, and still get updates. On site volunteers will now be required to be vaccinated, and they will offer vaccines every week for the next month. The out reach will help an important part of the community.
Dan B
@CaseyL: That’s terrible news. I hope Watergirl is okay. I’m tempted to email her but if she’s not well that’s an imposition.
Chief Oshkosh
@hrprogressive: Thanks!
JPL
@MisterForkbeard: Paraphrasing, but a doctor from Missouri is saying they are saying more children. In fact, more children in the last month or two, then all of the time before. I’m listening to CNN
gosh I hate those who are unvaccinated.
Martin
@Brachiator: It’s not just that but the falloff in delta cases in UK – nobody has any fucking idea why that happened.
And scientists get really unnerved when shit just seems to happen for no reason. Things are only ever outliers when you understand the underlying mechanic, and there’s clearly a mechanic in Delta that they don’t understand. At that point, outliers stop being outliers.
zhena gogolia
@Matt McIrvin:
Haha, I just tried to compare Provincetown with Lake of the Ozarks for a nanosecond and my brain broke
ETA: I know you were making a different point, but have you ever by any chance been to Lake of the Ozarks? It’s a different planet.
featheredsprite
@Suzanne: RE: your 5th grader. I would support the idea of home schooling for a while longer. It might entail sacrifices. It might keep the child safe.
It’s your decision. [Hug]
Patricia Kayden
Matt McIrvin
So NBC posted a Twitter headline “Vaccinated individuals could have higher levels of Delta” [relative to Alpha and other variants] and it’s getting happily interpreted by antivaxxers as “Vaccinated individuals could have higher levels of Delta” [relative to unvaccinated individuals]. Now going all around the right-wing infosphere. Scum will be scum.
zhena gogolia
@wmd: Oh, I hope you’re okay. I hope Water Girl is okay too.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin: NBC has been the worst.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Martin: They sure the Delta falloff isn’t just the Johnson government suppressing data that doesn’t support their reopening plans?
zhena gogolia
@Betty Cracker:
I was doing it assiduously, but they were across the street on the driver’s side, so probably couldn’t see me over my husband’s head.
zhena gogolia
@Nutmeg again:
I overheard women in an AT&T store saying that they tested the kids’ masks after school and they had tuberculosis and pneumonia on them. Again, my husband refused to let me engage.
zhena gogolia
@Captain C:
They’re impatient babies who can’t suck it up.
Patricia Kayden
featheredsprite
@hrprogressive: Yeah.
I was in high anxiety last night. Today, I feel that if the damn bug comes after me, it will have a fight on its hands.
So I have girded my loins and I am carrying on. [Grimly.]
Baud
@zhena gogolia: Maybe it was one of the children of the vax refusniks.
Suzanne
@JPL: Yes, I’m in PA. Kids here don’t start school for another few weeks, but I just wanted to nip the whole “when school starts!” discussion in the bud, as the future is now. We’ll see how well these kids do.
This sucks.
Fuck Trump’s minions.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Chief Oshkosh: I got the Korean ones from this outfit: https://behealthyusa.net/
They were rec’d in some major media outlet (maybe WaPo, maybe somewhere else). Pretty sure they are the legit Korean version but who knows? I’m almost out of them and while I am still masking at the grocery store and such I’ve been fully vaccinated since April and kind of feel like a regular surgical type or cloth mask will do me reasonably well. I ordered a variety pack – was planning on figuring out which fit me best but really they’re all labeled in Korean and I couldn’t keep telling them apart for that reason.
Another Scott
@Chief Oshkosh: A certain amount of trust is required in all of these medical devices – we can’t know whether most of them actually do what they claim as very few are actually tested by independent agencies in the US.
I’ve been wearing these KN95 with ear loops for months and they work well for my face. They also have a version with headband straps.
(Note that all US certified N95 masks have headband straps, not ear-loops.)
What’s probably most important is how it fits. After that, decent filter material is important (obviously don’t use a stretchy knit material as your primary protection).
I’m not an MD.
HTH a little.
Cheers,
Scott.
Major Major Major Major
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: yes it’s happening in scotland etc.
JPL
@Suzanne: ot btw I was able to clean the pee table with witch hazel and then used bee’s wax.. Once again thanks for your suggestions with the grand imp.
Spanky
@Baud:
Uh, that wasn’t my nose, Baud.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Spanky: LOL!
Steeplejack (phone)
Sturgis, here we come! Yee-haw!
Ksmiami
@featheredsprite: not to be pedantic but unfortunately this is a virus, not a bug -it’s something between life and not life – I only wish this was a bug because they are easier to defeat esp in an age of anti bacterial medicine…
Spanky
I’d rather that the morons not get long covid, because I just know that somehow my fucking tax dollars are gonna help these moochers after all the shit they’re giving the rest of us.
MisterForkbeard
@Martin: My own (wild) guess on the UK dropoff is that Delta is so communicable that the folks who are engaging in unsafe behavior basically all catch it really quickly. That frontloads the data significantly, as the people that are left are masking, tend to be vaccinated, aren’t going to unsafe venues, etc.
Matt McIrvin
@zhena gogolia: I have been to both places, yes.
JoyceH
@geg6:
Or failing that, at least have severe enough cases of Long COVID that they find themselves unable to navigate the new voting restrictions their cohorts are putting in place.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
I don’t know…I don’t want to go full on YOLO and just live life as normal like the Trumpers, the reason the CDC dropped the mask rec was that they needed to give people something…like you’re vaccinated but you still can’t go anywhere, do anything, and have to socially distance and stay masked at all times? What’s the point of getting vaxxed at that point? That’s the way a lot of people would have been thinking and it would have been a disincentive to get vaccinated for a lot of folks. Plus, it was safe for the vaccinated to go around unmasked until the virus mutated to delta.
So, I’m placing a lot of faith in the vaccine at this point and behaving accordingly. I’m not going to run out and do a bunch of stuff involving large crowds but I didn’t really do that before the pandemic either so it’s not like it’s a major deprivation.
We’ve been out to eat in moderately crowded restaurants a few times and less crowded ones a few more times. I still wear masks when going inside anywhere that isn’t a restaurant. I’m going to visit extended family and friends when I feel like it. If things take a dramatic turn for the worse for the vaccinated I’ll reassess if it’s not too late. But at that point…I mean getting it eventually will be practically inevitable so might as well get it over with and see what happens. I thankfully don’t spend any amount of time around kids that aren’t old enough to be vaccinated so I don’t feel like I’m putting anyone at risk who can’t in some way do something about that risk at this point. If they won’t help themselves…I’ll mask while indoors but I can’t put my entire life on hold to protect a bunch of people who won’t protect themselves. I’m done living like a complete hermit.
gwangung
@Chief Oshkosh:
I go to bonafide masks (https://bonafidemasks.com). US Distributors of Powecom masks, which has CDC emergency certification (good enough for me) and an anti-counterfeiting seal.
JPL
My state representative just weighed in endorsing the takeover of the Fulton County Election Board and I’m sick. They are finalizing who counts Fulton County votes. Was it Stalin who said that it doesn’t matter who votes, it is who counts the vote
It was Stalin
“It doesnt matter how many people vote, only who counts them.”
JMG
Somebody responded to Barro’s tweet about P-Town with the very accurate analogy that on a summer holiday weekend, the town is basically a cruise ship on land. In other words, a perfect place to spread an airborne virus. I wore my mask just now at the supermarket, not because I was worried about infection, but I have an issue with allergies where postnasal drip leads to coughing. I didn’t want to freak anyone out. Just seemed polite. BTW, Provincetown’s positive test rate has dropped from 15 percent to 4.8 in about 10 days.
Earl
@Chief Oshkosh:
I got packs of the KN variant from ace hardware.
My rationale was 99% these are a (touch) more expensive but there’s someone to sue if they aren’t, in fact, the real deal. Unlike amazon, which is just American alibaba and entirely buyer beware…
https://www.acehardware.com/departments/tools/workwear-and-safety-gear/respirators-and-face-masks/2007503
Brachiator
@Martin:
This just says that science is an investigatory work in progress, not oracular pronouncements from on high.
The kinda loose scientific conventional wisdom was that the pandemic would hit, but then everyone would get the vaccine and we would all soon achieve herd immunity.
But the variables have been slow rollout of vaccines, varieties of anti vaxx resistance and the impact of a volatile Delta variant and varying rates of vaccinations. This is what we now have to study.
ETA. I just saw a news story about Israel looking to give people over age 60 a third dose of vaccine. What’s up with that?
And we will be learning about the efficacy of the current vaccine as we hit the winter months and more people staying indoors.
This is a continuing scientific investigation.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Matt McIrvin: I’ve been to neither but they do seem polar opposites culturally from everything I’ve heard about both places. I grew up in Michigan and Lake of the Ozarks seems pointless when you’re surrounded by magnificent natural lakes in all directions that are bigger and nicer. I see your puny lake and raise you four Great ones! Plus 11,000 or so others.
Regine Touchon
@zhena gogolia: I live outside of Auburn AL and Auburn City School Board had a hearing yesterday about whether to have a mask mandate for this school year. All the maskless wingnuts who graduated from YouTube University came there in force to spew their misinformation and then stormed out shouting about their free-dumbs when the board decided to enforce mask wearing till at least mid-September. Auburn prides itself about having a premier university in their town yet Lee County has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the state and voted overwhelmingly for Tommy Tuberville and tfg. We’re doomed.
zhena gogolia
@Regine Touchon:
I’m sorry!
I’m in CT. I teach in college, and now I’m thinking I have to figure out what is the best mask for being heard in a classroom. I didn’t have to teach last spring, and in the fall I was on Zoom, so I haven’t had to deal with this yet.
Earl
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?:
Actually, that’s a pretty reasonable question. Particularly with the side effects that were, for me at least, pretty crummy. Still worth it, obviously, to not worry about killing my parents.
At this point, I think it’s pretty clear we can choose to dramatically self-isolate ala a year ago, or be exposed to Delta. The 30% of our country that’s too stupid to help themselves have guaranteed that. The only real diff with that exposure is are you vaxxed or not. Since it’s an inevitability, I’m just going to live my life. Because my actions don’t change things here. Also, wearing masks at the gym is miserable, so it’s pretty much Moderna take the wheel.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Ghost of Joe Liebling*s Dog
@Chief Oshkosh:
I’ve seen these sites recommended in a Reddit sub called Masks4All.
KF94s – behealthyusa.net, everydaybeautylab.com
KN95s – BonafideMasks.com
Scout211
@Chief Oshkosh:
Amazon now has many NIOSH approved n95 masks as well as kn95 masks for sale.
I just purchased a box of these masks from Home Depot, which is the main retail seller for most of the 3m masks: https://www.homedepot.com/p/3M-Aura-Particulate-Respirator-N95-Foldable-10-Pack-9205P-10-DC/316909322
I also purchased the same 3m Aura 9205 masks through Amazon, but the seller is out of stock right now and my order has a delivery date but hasn’t shipped so I found a local Home Depot that had them in stock. They seem to be more comfortable on the face than the typical n95 “bowl” shape.
I also have many Powecom kn95 masks and those are good, too.
Edited for clarity.
Dan B
@JPL: There seems to be a possibility that the tremendous increase in virus particles may be overwhelming children’s naturally robust immune systems. And there may be other factors.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Regine Touchon: Yeah the phenomenon in Michigan is a bunch of U of M fans who never went there and many didn’t make it through high school and who are dumb and fuck Trump fans, but they feel superior because it has a sterling academic reputation compared to their chief athletic rivals (MSU and OSU). Like they give a damn about academics or ever did, or like the fact that the athletic program they choose to root for being affiliated with the “Harvard of the MIdwest” somehow conveys some special status unto themselves. That’s one of the really weird things about the college sports fans that never attended the university they root for – I gather down south there are A LOT of those folks and it’s probably annoying as hell.
Major Major Major Major
@MisterForkbeard: the science types I follow seem to be converging on “it burned through the dry timber fast” and “we were already further along in the delta wave than we thought” but obviously evidence is sparse.
smith
@MisterForkbeard: We had a similar very sharp dropoff here in January, when very few people had been vaxxed, and the virus certainly hadn’t run out of vulnerable targets. It’s likely in both cases enough people got religion and started (or resumed) taking precautions they hadn’t taken before and suppressed transmission that way.
JPL
@Dan B: It could be that children have been protected, because of remote learning. Only now are we learning that they are not immune. I hope that isn’t the case though
Probably all of the above..
Jim, Foolish Literalist
my father had a phrase for those sorts of fans wrt Notre Dame– something like “Unadmitted alumni”
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Earl: Yes this is pretty much where I’m at except I don’t go to the gym. I just prefer exercising outdoors regardless of the weather and I’m not big into pushing iron around so I don’t really need a gym. I do some body weight strength training and have a dumbell set and make do with that, my bike, my rowing machine, some TRX bands and a door gym pullup bar and my feet. So it’s Pfizer take the wheel for me too (that was the first available I really didn’t care which I got)
I will continue to mask indoors except when eating, and if that saves a life that’s great.
A Ghost to Mos
I went to the local Ace hardware today. I was the only one wearing a mask, and got several stinkeyes. It was good for a laugh, and RN wife would have given me shit if I hadn’t.
Major Major Major Major
@A Ghost to Mos: comment released from jail, now fix your username :P
A Ghost to Most
I went to the local Ace hardware today. I was the only one wearing a mask, and got several stinkeyes. It was good for a laugh, and RN wife would have given me shit if I hadn’t.
Pete Mack
At what point can we consider it equivalent to an annual flu and just accept the kccasional infection? 400 cases, 4 hospitalizations, and zero deaths is easily in line with flu numbers.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: In Michigan we call them Walmart Wolverines. There are plenty of MSU fans (I went there for grad school hence that’s who I root for) of the same ilk but they’re less annoying, though I admit I’m biased.
Matt McIrvin
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?:
For me, personally, “not dying of COVID” was the key thing. I thought of vaccination as the difference between “don’t go anywhere, don’t do anything, stay masked and distanced at all times, and maybe you STILL catch COVID and die because of one momentary slip-up”, versus “go out a little bit maybe, be careful and keep the mask on, and you’ll actually be reasonably safe.”
But relatively few people seem to think that way–they needed the carrot of “it’s all over for you, you can do anything you want.”
Chetan Murthy
@Pete Mack: I’ve read that a “bad flu year” nationwide is 100 deaths/day — again, nationwide. The thing that makes it dicey, is that all not-just-a-cold covid infections appear to inflict long-term brain damage: this means that we need to aim for lower than that death rate, and commensurately lower hospitalization rate.
Regine Touchon
@JPL: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/29/us/politics/georgia-republicans-elections-fulton-county.html?searchResultPosition=1
Here’s an article about the nefarious strategy Georgia GOP legislators are using to nullify future elections.
Chetan Murthy
@Matt McIrvin:
Or at least, that’s what all the motherless RWNJ fucks were saying on every channel. And the MSM were repeating, gutless wonders that they are.
zhena gogolia
@Matt McIrvin:
I’m like you.
Earl
@Matt McIrvin: Many people are at extremely low risk from covid, so they already endured something unpleasant (15 months of lockdowns, masks, vaccination side effects) almost entirely for other people. Which is good! But the idea that you shouldn’t get a reward, and should continue to bear these burdens to spare the people too stupid to get a freely-available vaccine… it’s a bridge too far for me and for many.
Matt McIrvin
@Pete Mack: It’s a good question. Personally, I think we should have been masking up for every annual flu season so I’m probably the wrong person to ask.
If severe disease leading to hospitalization/death is the only thing to worry about, you’re probably right–in a highly vaccinated population, this is down to the point where it’s a “normal” endemic disease like seasonal flu, and maybe not something to restructure all of society for.
But for me, the big unanswered questions are long COVID, and any subtle damage being done to (still unvaccinated) children. I’ll be a lot happier when we can safely vaccinate kids.
I keep thinking about the old lead-crime hypothesis, that the weird rise in crime from about 1970-1995 was because of the subtle developmental effects of leaded gasoline fumes. Are we going to have another one of those down the line because it turned out COVID gave almost everybody in the world some kind of subtle, hard-to-detect brain damage? (Is that even what’s happening with crime rates now?)
Chief Oshkosh
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: thanks!
Chief Oshkosh
@Another Scott: Thanks!
frosty
@Chief Oshkosh: I ordered 3M Aura K95s from Amazon this week. Couldn’t find any orher supplier. 2 to 3 week delivery window.
Chief Oshkosh
@gwangung: Thanks!
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Matt McIrvin: My main motivation was not dying and finally feeling like I could visit extended family safely, but that’s obviously not enough for a lot of people, as you note. I haven’t gotten to the point of feeling like I can behave as if things are entirely normal, but semi normal seemed really OK two weeks ago. I still feel like that level of normal is attainable and relatively safe among the vaccinated. Hopefully it stays that way.
jonas
When will insurance companies start saying that they won’t cover care for Covid-related illness or hospitalization for the voluntarily unvaccinated? *That* would get people’s attention. (I dunno — maybe under the ACA they can’t technically do that, but I’m sure where there’s a will, there’s a way)
Barbara
My employer just notified us today that we would not be permitted back in the office until we show proof of vaccination, which I did three or four weeks ago when they first surveyed staff. I think that we were at around 70% at that time. “I have the right to kill you” appears to be the new civil rights mantra from the anti-vaxxers.
Barbara
@jonas: They won’t refuse to pay for care (and you wouldn’t want them to) but many have started reimposing cost sharing requirements that had been waived for the public health emergency.
Scout211
@frosty:
They carry them at Home Depot. I just bought a 10 pack box this morning. Stock was low at all the Home Depot’s near me but they do carry them there and I found one in the shelf.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Barbara: Yeah I’m a Federal worker and my only problem with the vaccine mandate is it gives people an out – testing+masking. Don’t give them that choice says I. Get vaccinated or resign should be the only choices.
cckids
I don’t know that I hope for it, but I just don’t care if they do. I’m worn out from worrying about people I do care about. Fuck’em.
Chief Oshkosh
@Earl: Thanks!
Chief Oshkosh
@Ghost of Joe Liebling*s Dog: Thanks!
PsiFighter37
Seems like a booster shot is almost certainly in order. But the fact this thing seems to be transmitted endlessly is frustrating. It means we will have to watch for variants that become deadlier for…who knows how long.
I have gone back to wearing a mask indoors except for when I am stationary at my cube.
Nancy
@hrprogressive:
I am thinking seriously about all of the implications, I truly am, but right now I need to know the origins of “Fuckitol,” because I can’t remember.
Help, please, hrprogressive.
Roger Moore
@Old School:
I think the message isn’t that vaccinated people are the problem, it’s that vaccinated people shouldn’t think they can ignore the pandemic. Vaccinated people can still get infected, and they can still spread the infection.
That said, I think the desire for universal masking is mostly about stopping unvaccinated people from ignoring the rules. The previous CDC guidance saying it was OK to go without a mask indoors was supposed to be for vaccinated people only, but willfully unvaccinated people weren’t going to let that stop them from ditching their masks. Going back to universal masking takes away their ability to get around mask requirements by lying about their vaccination status.
JanieM
@Barbara:
Love to see the overlap with 2A fanaticism, which amounts to the same thing.
frosty
@Scout211: The closest Home Depot that had them was 40 miles away. If I ordered them they wouldn’t deliver to the house or my local store. So dammit, Bezos gets Moar Bucks from me (and John gets a couple pennies).
Chief Oshkosh
@Scout211: thank you
frosty
@frosty: I just checked again. Home Depot says there’s 15 10-packs in stock here now!!
Major Major Major Major
oh LORD
Another Scott
@Earl: I don’t think the experts know in advance who is “extremely low risk” for COVID. There were several stories early on of ultramarathoners being in the hospital for 6 weeks, losing 30+ pounds, etc., after catching it. (The hypothesis I heard at the time was that they had extremely protective immune systems that went into overdrive and that’s what caused their problems. Don’t know if that explanation held up.)
It’s a new virus in humans. It’s constantly mutating, it’s everywhere, and new variants will continue to be created until community spread ends. Test results, hospitalizations, and death statistics always lag. Thinking that we know enough to shrug off the need for tried-and-true public health measures (masking and all the rest) seems foolhardy to me.
YMMV.
Cheers,
Scott.
Nancy
@hrprogressive:
I also bought KN95 masks from Amazon. Their tight and seem to look and feel like the few N95 I’ve worn.
Gvg
@VOR: My sister the doctor just lost a fully vaccinated doctor friend to Covid this week. He was 70 and very dedicated. She says 2 weeks ago her hospital hadn’t had even 1 case of breakthrough, now they have many. She also says deaths and hospitalizations happen 4 or 5 weeks after infection so we don’t see high statistics of those yet. It was about 2 weeks ago our area started to get a fast increase in cases. So right now, it doesn’t seem like the vaccinated are in danger, but actually it is too soon to say but the signs are worrisome. Schools starts in about 2 weeks. It’s terrible timing.
Chetan Murthy
@Roger Moore:
Dr. Leana Wen’s op-ed says as much: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/07/29/cdc-guidance-masks-coronavirus-live-chat/
[full disclosure: I was unable to get the chat to load at WaPo (assume they’re having technical issues); I read a transcript elsewhere]
Unvaxxed people are much less likely get infected, once exposed. Apparently they are just as likely to infect others. From Brad Delong’s place ( https://braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-noted-for-2021-07-30-fr ) it seems like one might say that Delta has an R0 of 7.5 among the unvaxxed, but just under 1 among the vaxxed. So if we were all vaxxed, it would slowly die out [barring further variants, but those are coming, so we aren’t that lucky.]
The real problem here is the uvaxxed, who are much more likely to get infected. And yeah, we’re all going to have to curtail our lives, so that these motherless fucks can no longer hide among us, unmasked and spreading death.
James E Powell
@Major Major Major Major:
That was a really long question. Is “partially” doing a lot of work there?
Is the question, “Was the CDC overly cautious?”
Or is it, “Did the CDC use sketchy data to justify its imposition of regulations that are the equivalent of the Holocaust?”
Matt McIrvin
@Major Major Major Major: I saw that thread too, but my impression was that all this was mostly inspired by the P-town outbreak.
Matt McIrvin
@Roger Moore:
I thought that might be the case until yesterday, but the leaked slides actually imply that the CDC was telling the truth in their public statements: they primarily changed their minds because of breakthrough transmission in the vaccinated.
Chetan Murthy
@Matt McIrvin: Those two explanations aren’t in conflict.
JMG
NBC News just ran a story with the headline and topic sentence “125,000 fully vaccinated Americans have tested positive for Covid-19.” It didn’t say that was out of 161 million fully vaccinated Americans. That’s way less than one percent. Stories and anecdotes about breakthrough infections are scary, but the raw data says vaccinated people have infinitely less to worry about than the unvaccinated. That’s as far as getting sick is concerned. As far as spreading the virus, that’s more possible, but it’s still far less likely you’ll do so than an unvaccinated person. So caution is warranted, but it should stop far short of alarm.
Another Scott
It’s not hopeless to get more people vaccinated. It just takes work.
We can do this, and not give up on people.
(via RepDonBeyer)
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@JMG:
The vaccines were never 100% effective even against the alpha virus.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@JMG: My local (DC) NBC network ran essentially the same story but did mention total vaccinations and that the cases were a tenth of a percent of the vaccinated population. Still a little sensational but they did a not terrible job of contextualizing.
Baud
@JMG:
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?:
Again, NBC has been awful. Some exec has decided to create controversy over masking and vaccines.
NotMax
@Nancy
Sprang for these disposable KN95s on Amazon.
“The manufacturer can be found on the Appendix A: Authorized Respirators Updated: June 1, 2020 on CDC website. Under the emergency use authorization, this KN95 headband mask can be used by healthcare personnel for use in medical environments.”
Personally prefer the bands behind the head type. Ear loop kind are a PITA for me, having a full ‘stache and beard. Not all that happy about the prominently printed branding on the front (and would have preferred if they were available in black), but so it goes; there’s always something.
trollhattan
@Baud:
Doesn’t it seem as though the alpha virus would kick all the other viruses’ asses and retain pack leader?
That’s how I learned it in class.
trollhattan
No comment necessary.
JMG
@Baud: All three network news shows led with some version of “Delta variant means you’re all gonna die” as the story. TV news basically exists to frighten old people into never leaving their homes (so they’ll never stop watching TV) so covid has been jam for them.
Baud
Reddit comment
JPL
@JMG: The good news is that corporations are stepping up and doing their part. More companies are mandating vaccine shots for employees.
SFBayAreaGal
Four seasons, nice reference to a Journey song.
Matt McIrvin
@trollhattan: Is this some plot like “Godzilla: King of the Monsters” where it turns out the way to save the world is to restore the rightful alpha virus to its place at the top of the virus hierarchy?
Scout211
She was vaccinated, he was not. They both got Covid. Her symptoms lasted 10 days. He’s been hospitalized for 22 days and counting. Perfect example of the difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated and the delta variant
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/30/health/mississippi-covid-unvaccinated-man-icu/index.html
Robert Sneddon
@trollhattan:
ECMO is the step beyond intubation, it’s a last-ditch attempt to keep someone with severe lung problems alive. It usually doesn’t work. Followup if he survives might involve a double lung transplant.
NotMax
@Matt McIrvin
“Better have a second bowl of Alpha-bits, just in case.”
//
Another Scott
@JMG: News stories like that exist in infinite varieties. A few of my favorites:
Weather reporter out in a boat in some flooded city after a hurricane or similar talking about the devastation and the high water. Meanwhile someone walks by them showing that the water is about ankle deep.
BBC reporter years ago on a beach talking about the people escaping Myanmar on rickety boats. Beached boat in the background shifts slightly in the wind/tide, breathless reporter notices and talks about the terrifying life-threatening rocking of the craft.
A couple of nights ago, a local NBC weather guy was talking about the chance of dangerous thunderstorms and scary weather the next day while the map behind him was color-coded for “slight chance”.
Gotta make everything scary and extraordinary to get people to watch, apparently. I blame Roone Arledge.
Cheers,
Scott.
Robert Sneddon
@NotMax:
That sort of ‘branding’ means a supervisor can see at a glance that staff or workers are wearing approved masks and not something they bought from Etsy or the Dollar General store. Failure to enforce proper mask protocols can bring down the wrath of OSHA inspectors, fines and worse in places where their use is mandated so no black-on-black printing is permitted.
wenchacha
I spent the last six weeks in the Mission District of San. Francisco. I was acting as grandma/nanny for my 9 month old grandson, while his mother painted a wall mural in the Tenderloin.
Five adults and one baby shared an airbnb. Adults were vaxxed. Most often, we wore masks on outings, ate at home, and avoided crowds. We got a little looser near the end of the stay; the baby was inside a couple of restaurants. That was probably a mistake, but it’s been a week since I came home. I think he is okay.
My daughter is having surgery in Seattle in September. I have been planning to go help her afterward. Now, she has asked me to stay home. I’m frustrated that we are having this increase in cases.
debbie
@Pete Mack:
When the fucking thing stops mutating every two minutes.
Someone on NPR recommended double masking. Sigh.
PaulWartenberg
Here in Florida DeSantis is threatening to cut funding to any school district that mandates their students and faculty wear masks when schools re-open this August. Our own GOVERNOR is siding WITH THE VIRUS just as the Delta variant is spreading faster across Florida. He WANTS our kids and our teachers forced into super-spreader locations, forced indoors for easier spread of the virus, forced to go to ICU wards two weeks from now with tubes shoved down their throats all because DeSantis wants to sell himself as a conquering hero to the trumpian anti-vaxxer masses.
https://www.wptv.com/rebound/state-of-education/florida-gov-ron-desantis-threatens-legislative-action-to-prevent-school-mask-mandates
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD WILL THE REST OF EVERYBODY AROUND ME IN FLORIDA WAKE THE HELL UP AND THROW THESE REPUBLICAN MURDERERS OUT ON THEIR OWN ASSES!!!!
NotMax
@Robert Sneddon
The branding was in no way a deal breaker when it came to deciding to purchase. In this case, it’s teal printing (a fair amount of print, not just the manufacturer name) on white. Teal on black would have been my choice, were it available but it’s not an item I’m purchasing for its fashion plusses, regardless.
Scout211
@NotMax:
They have the black ones with the headband at bonafidemasks. Their prices are better than Amazon because they are the official Powecom distributor for the US but they don’t take credit cards, just PayPal.
https://bonafidemasks.com/black-powecom-kn95-respirator-mask-headband-style-fda-authorized-10-masks-per-pack/
NotMax
@Scout211
Thanks. Pack I got contains 11 so a trivial difference, pricewise. Just wanted to have some disposables in stock for when my usual ones might need temporary swapping out.
Pittsburgh Mike
I think someone’s making a statistical error. “People who are vaccinated have as much virus in their nose as unvaccinated people” is false. “*Infected* people who are vaccinated have as much virus in their nose as unvaccinated people” is what’s apparently true. But the vast majority of cases are in unvaccinated people, except for a relatively small number of breakthrough infections. The vast majority of vaccinated people aren’t infected.