COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Aug. 2-3

42Comments

1. 1.

   NeenerNeener

   August 3, 2021 at 6:29 am

   Monroe County, NY:

   It looks like we may be going back to daily reporting again:

   52 new cases on 8/2, 2.5% test positivity.
   Deaths now at 1351.

   58.7% of population have completed vaccination
   62% have had at least one shot

   The graph of cases by age group looks like it covers all of last week: 85 children between the ages of 0 and 19, 97 adults in their 20s, 54 adults in their 30s, 46 adults in their 40s, 48 adults in their 50s, 26 adults in their 60s, 24 adults in their 70s and less than 10 adults over 79.

2. 2.

   YY_Sima Qian

   August 3, 2021 at 6:33 am

   On 8/1 China reported 61 new domestic confirmed & 23 new domestic asymptomatic cases.

   Yunnan Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases (both mild, a Chinese & a Burmese national), at Ruili in Dehong Prefecture, had already been under quarantine. 7 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 57 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases there. 1 community at Ruili remains at High Risk. 1 village at Ruili & 1 village at Longchuan County remain at Medium Risk.

   Jiangsu Province

   • Nanjing reported 5 new domestic confirmed cases (3 mild & 2 moderate), all found among persons already under centralized quarantine. 2 mild cases worsened to moderation condition, 1 moderate case worsened to serious condition, & 2 serious cases improved to moderate. There currently are 220 domestic confirmed (82 mild, 132 moderate & 6 serious) cases in the city. Of the 220 infected persons, 188 are at Jiangning District, 12 at Lishui District, 4 each at Jianye, Qinhuai, Gulou & Yuhuatai Districts, 2 at Gaochun District, & 1 each at Xuanwu & Qixia Districts. The Lukou Sub-District remains at High Risk. 1 village has been elevated to Medium Risk. 2 areas, 15 residential compounds, 6 buildings & 8 villages remain at Medium Risk.
   • Yangzhou reported 40 new domestic confirmed cases (19 mild & 21 moderate). There currently are 94 domestic confirmed (31 mild, 61 moderate & 2 serious) & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, all of but 2 are related to super-spreading events associated w/ poker parlors. 1 areas been elevated to High Risk. 1 village, 1 dormitory & 9 residential compounds & 4 buildings have been elevated to Medium Risk. 1 area, 1 community, 15 residential compounds, 5 village, 6 building & 1 dormitory are currently at Medium Risk. The city has gone under lock down, & a cordon sanitaire has been set up around it.
   • Huai’an did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 10 confirmed & 2 asymptomatic cases in the city, all members of the group that had gone to Zhangjiajie. 1 residential building, 1 village & 4 residential compounds were elevated to Medium Risk. 4 residential buildings, 4 residential compounds & 2 villages remain at Medium Risk.
   • Suqian did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 3 domestic confirmed cases (all moderate) there, 2 of whom are traced to the outbreak in Nanjing. A dormitory & a residential compound remain at Medium Risk.
   • Wuxi did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 domestic asymptomatic case in the city, a person involved in processing incoming visitors/returnees from overseas & not connected to the Delta Variant outbreak from Nanjing.

    

   Anhui Province

   • He County did not report any new domestic positive cases, there is 1 domestic asymptomatic case there, a person who returned from Nanjing.
   • Wuhu did not report any new domestic positive cases. There is 1 domestic asymptomatic case there, a person who had returned from Nanjing.

    

   Liaoning Province

   • Shenyang did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 4 domestic confirmed cases in the city, all traced to the outbreak in Nanjing. 1 residential building remains at Medium Risk.
   • Dalian did not report any new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 1 domestic confirmed & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, all traced to transmission chain originating from the outbreak in Nanjing. 1 residential building remains at Medium Risk.

    

   Guangdong Province

   • Zhongshan in did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 domestic confirmed case in the city, a person had returned from Nanjing.
   • Zhuhai did not report any new domestic positive case. There currently is 1 domestic asymptomatic case there, a person who had flown back from Nanjing.

    

   Hunan Province

   • Changde did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 3 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, all had ridden on the super-spreading boat cruise.
   • Xiangtan reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, who had ridden on the boat cruise at Changde on 7/24, already under centralized quarantine since 7/29. There currently are 2 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, all having been on the super-spreading boat cruise at Changde on 7/24. 1 residential compound remains at Medium Risk.
   • Changsha did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 2 domestic confirmed & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, 2 had ridden on the super-spreading boat cruise at Changde on 7/24 & 3 from transmission chains related to 2 of the domestic confirmed cases reported by Beijing. 2 residential compounds & a residential building remain at Medium Risk.
   • Yiyang did not reported any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 1 domestic confirmed & 4 domestic asymptomatic case in the city, all traced close contact of domestic confirmed cases reported by Beijing. 1 residential compound remains at Medium Risk.
   • Zhuzhou reported 2 new domestic confirmed (both previously asymptomatic) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases. The new positive case is a traced close contact already under centralized quarantine since 7/30. There currently are 5 domestic confirmed & 13 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, 7 had gone on the super spreading cruise & 10 are their close contacts. 4 residential compounds remain at Medium Risk.
   • Zhangjiajie reported 3 new domestic confirmed (2 mild & 1 asymptomatic) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine. There currently are 13 domestic confirmed & 3 new domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, all but 1 of them at Yongding District. 11 sub-districts remain at Medium Risk.
   • Xiangxi Prefecture did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 2 domestic confirmed cases in the city, both close contacts of the party from Huai’an. 1 village & 1 residential compound remain at Medium Risk.

    

   Sichuan Province

   • Mianyang did not report any new domestic positive cases. There is currently 1 domestic confirmed case there, connected to the outbreak at Nanjing. 1 factory remains at Medium Risk.
   • Luzhou did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 1 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, traced to the outbreak in originating in Nanjing via phylogenetic analysis.
   • Yibin did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 domestic confirmed case (moderate) in the city, a traced close contact of the case reported by Luzhou,  who had also returned from Shanghai on the same flight. 1 residential compound remains at Medium Risk.
   • Chengdu did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 5 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, all traced to the secondary outbreak at Zhangjiajie in Hunan Province. 2 residential compounds & a residential building remain at Medium Risk.

    

   Henan Province

   • Zhengzhou reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 15 new domestic asymptomatic cases. The currently are 13 domestic confirmed & 63 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. the vast majority of whom are staff, patients & caretakers at the #6 Hospital, & their close contacts. The Zhengzhou Municipal Health Commission confirmed that the outbreak is of the Delta Variant, phylogenetic analysis indicates that the outbreak is linked to 2 imported cases returning from Myanmar, who are being treated at the hospital. 1 sub-district has been elevated at High Risk. 1 sub-district, 2 communities, 2 residential compounds & 1 village are at Medium Risk.
   • Shangqiu reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, a coworker of the domestic confirmed case reported there on 8/1. Thee currently are 2 domestic confirmed cases in the city, both connected to the  1 residential compound, 1 community & a shopping mall remain Medium Risk.
   • Zhumadian did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 domestic asymptomatic case in the city, a case connected to outbreak at the #6 hospital at Zhengzhou until 7/30.

    

   Hubei Province

   • Huanggang reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case a . There currently are 1 domestic confirmed & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, all at Hong’an County & connected to the group from Huai’an in Jiangsu Province on company outing. 1 township remains at Medium Risk.
   • Jingzhou did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 2 domestic confirmed cases in the city, both connected to the group on company outing from Huai’an in Jiangsu Province. Jingzhou has gone under soft lock down, likely due to the concern that the high speed rail station (with its high traffic flow) being the epicenter of the outbreak there. 1 area & 1 sub-district have been elevated to Medium Risk.
   • Wuhan reported 3 new domestic confirmed (2 mild & 1 moderate) & 5 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 1 of whom crossed paths w/ the group from Huai’an in Jiangsu Province at the Jingzhou high speed rail station on 7/27. The 6 of the cases are the case’s coworkers & the last is a close contact. 1 sub-district has been elevated to Medium Risk.

    

   Chongqing Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. There are currently 2 domestic confirmed cases in the city, both had traveled to Xi’an in Shaanxi Province from 7/21 – 7/24.

   Beijing Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, a member of the same family that had traveled to Zhangjiajie in Hunan Province in late Jul., then attended the super spreading family events at Yiyang & Changsha in Hunan Province on 7/23 – 7/24. The case returned to Beijing on 7/25 & has been under centralized quarantine since 7/29. There currently are 5 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, all w/ travel history to Zhangjiajie in late Jul.

   Yantai in Shandong Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases today (both mild), both are employees of a company that went to Yangzhou in Jiangsu Province from 7/19 – 7/21 for a company outing. They will be included in tomorrow’s data dump. There currently are 4 domestic confirmed cases in the city, 2 each traced to the outbreaks in Nanjing & Yangzhou. 1 area & 2 residential compounds have been elevated to Medium Risk.

   Yinchuan in Ningxia “Autonomous” Region did not report any new domestic positive cases. There is 1 domestic confirmed case in the city, a person who had traveled from Changde in Hunan Province on 7/28, & a traced close contact w/ the boat cruise super-spreading event there.

   Haikou in Hainan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 domestic confirmed case in the city, a person who had crossed paths w/ the party from Huai’an in Jiangsu Province on company outing at Jingzhou high speed rail station. 1 residential compound was elevated to Medium Risk.

   Xiamen in Fujian Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case (previously asymptomatic, already under isolation). There currently are 3 domestic confirmed & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, all of whom are close contacts of the imported confirmed case (cargo flight crew) reported on 7/30. 2 residential compounds remain at Medium Risk.

   Shanghai Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, a ground staff for cargo flights at the Pudong International Airport. The case had previously tested negative on 7/21 & 7/28. All close contacts & environmental samples have tested negative. This case is unlikely to be connected to any of the domestic outbreaks. 1 residential compound has been elevated to Medium Risk.

   Imported Cases

   On 8/1, China reported 29 new imported confirmed cases, 18 imported asymptomatic cases:

   • Yunnan Province (locations not specified) – 8 confirmed cases, all Chinese nationals returning from Myanmar; 3 asymptomatic cases, all Chinese nationals returning from Laos; all via land border crossings
   • Guangzhou in Guangdong Province – 5 confirmed cases, 2 Chinese nationals returning from Myanmar & 1 each from Turkey & Zambia (via Paris CdG) & the Philippines; 3 asymptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Japan, Myanmar & Kenya
   • Foshan in Guangdong Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from Fiji; 2 asymptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Congo (Brazzaville) (via Paris CdG) & the US, off flights that landed at Guangzhou
   • Tianjin Municipality – 3 confirmed cases, 2 Chinese nationals returning from Spain & 1 from Guinea (via Paris CdG); 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Niger
   • Chengdu in Sichuan Province – 3 confirmed cases, 2 Chinese nationals returning from Myanmar & 1 from Taiwan; 3 asymptomatic cased, 2 Chinese nationals returning from Cambodia & 1 from Germany
   • Guangyuan in Sichuan Province – 2 asymptomatic cases, both Chinese nationals returning from Afghanistan; the cases had arrive ed at Wuhan in Hubei Province on 7/3, passed through the 21 days of centralized quarantine & tested negative multiple times, they were then transferred to Guangyuan on 7/25 & re-entered centralized quarantine
   • Shanghai Municipality – 3 confirmed cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Thailand & Norway (via Copenhagen) & a Taiwanese resident coming from Taiwan
   • Xi’an in Shaanxi Province – 2 confirmed cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Nigeria (via Frankfurt) & the UK (via Stockholm, off a flight diverted from Beijing); 1 asymptomatic case, 1 Chinese national returning from the UK (via Stockholm, off a flight diverted from Beijing)
   • Zhenjiang in Jiangsu Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from Spain, off a flight that landed at Shanghai
   • Nanjing in Jiangsu Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from France; the case arrived at Shanghai on 7/5, passed through 14 days of centralized quarantine at Shanghai & Nanjing & tested negative multiple times, upon release from centralized quarantine on 7/19 the case went through 14 days of home quarantine & continued to test negative, the case tested positive on 8/1 at the end of home quarantine period
   • Xiamen in Fujian Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from the Philippines
   • Fuzhou in Fujian Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Japan 
   • Qingdao in Shandong Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from Japan; 1 asymptomatic case, a Sri Lankan crew member off a cargo ship w/ last port of call in Japan
   • Shenyang in Liaoning Province – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released

    

   Overall in China, 24 confirmed cases recovered, 14 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation & 4 were reclassified as confirmed cases, and 632 individuals were released  from quarantine. Currently, there are 1,157 active confirmed cases in the country (698 imported), 24 in serious condition (13 imported), 499 asymptomatic cases (383 imported), 1 suspect case (imported). 31,783 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.

   As of 8/1, 1,688.683M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 19.156M doses in the past 24 hrs.

   On 8/2, Hong Kong reported 4 new positive cases, all imported (3 from Turkey & 1 from Greece).

3. 3.

   YY_Sima Qian

   August 3, 2021 at 6:34 am

   Taking stock of the situation in China, it appears that that outbreak Nanjing in Jiangsu Province, as well as the secondary/tertiary outbreaks & clusters across Hunan Province, are getting under control. Case incidence has dropped & the new cases are being identified while already under home or centralized quarantine, despite repeated rounds of mass screenings of all residents. The secondary outbreak at Yangzhou is still developing, though the vast majority of cases are directly traceable to the cluster associated w/ poker parlors, or their close contacts. The same can be said of the nosocomial outbreak at Zhengzhou in Henan Province. The question for both Zhengzhou & Yangzhou is how much the virus has spread in the broader community. The clusters at Jingzhou & Wuhan in Hubei Province are still at very early stages, time will tell if there has been wider spread already. As first local infections took place on 7/27, the clusters probably have been caught early & should not evolve into situations like Yangzhou or Zhangjiajie.

   The transmission chains of the ongoing outbreak originating from Nanjing has also become clear, accelerated by a number of super-spreading events: 

   1. Once the virus escaped the Nanjing Airport (likely around mid-Jul.) & reached the surrounding communities where the airport cleaning & ground staff lived, the outbreak was accelerated through a series of gatherings at poker parlors, seeding a large cluster of cases across Jiangning & Lishui Districts, as well as a smattering of cases in other Districts. Fortunately, the airport is situated away from the urban core of the city, & the Jiangning District forms Nanjing’areas southern suburb, so the virus does not appears to have penetrated deep into the densely populated urban area. The location of the epicenter was fortunate for Nanjing, but less so for the rest of the country.
   2. 2 elderly retirees from Nanjing traveled to Yangzhou in Jiangsu Province on 7/20 & immediately spent days play poker at various parlors, acerbating to a sizable outbreak there, most of infected also elderly retirees. 2 members of a group on company outing from Yantai in Shandong Province became infected after visiting Yangzhou from 7/19 – 7/21.
   3. While only 18 travelers who had passed through Nanjing airport in mid-Jul. have tested positive so far, a party from Dalian in Liaoning Province brought the virus to Zhangjiajie in Hunan Province, causing a small local outbreak of more than a dozen cases to date. One particular super-spreading event was an indoor show (fill to capacity of ~ 2K) in the evening of 7/22, where most audiences were masked, but some did not. A party of 3 from Chengdu in Sichuan Province were seated in the row in front of the party from Dalian, & became infected.
   4. The party of 3 from Sichuan then visited Changde in Hunan Province after Zhangjiajie, hosted by local friends. The 1 hr river boat cruise in the evening of 7/24 became a super-spreading event, leading to 20 cases from across Hunan Province (Changde, Changsha, Xiangtan, Zhuzhou, & 1 from Changde who later traveled to Yinchuan in Ningxia “Autonomous” Region). The party from Zhuzhou caused a tertiary cluster upon their return to the city.
   5. A family of 3 from Beijing were infected while traveling in Zhangjiajie from 7/20 – 7/23, then traveled to Yiyang & Changsha in Hunan Province to visit family, & held 2 large gatherings on 7/23 & 7/24, which also became spreading events, infecting their extended family members.
   6. A party of 67 from a company in Huai’an in Jiangsu Province visited Zhangjiajie from 7/20 – 7/27, 12 have become infected so far, as well as their tour guide from Xiangxi Prefecture in Hunan Province. On their return to Huai’an, they left a trail of clusters in Hubei Province, as they took high speed rail from Jingzhou in Hubei Province to Hefei in Anhui Province. 2 Jingzhou residents, a traveler from Haikou in Hainan Province, & a traveler to Wuhan were infected while crossing paths w/ the group at the on 7/27Jingzhou high speed rail station. The traveler to Wuhan then seeded a cluster of cases after arrival to Wuhan, which is still developing. A family returning to Huanggang in Hubei Province had taken the same train as the group from Huai’an also became infected, further infecting family members after arriving at Huanggang.

   I do not recall ever seeing such rapid succession of super-spreading events in China before. The only precedent is the outbreak at Dalian in Liaoning Province (at the beginning of the year) somehow jumping to Wangkui County in Heilongjiang Province, then spreading to the nearby Harbin & causing a large outbreak, then a traveling salesman from Harbin seeding large clusters at Tonghua & Changchun in Jilin Province. However, this was during winter in Manchuria. The super-spreading event at Jingzhou high speed rail station is especially concerning. The infected cases do not know the party from Huai’an, so contact was likely to have been casual. While stations are indoors spaces, they tend to be cavernous spaces (at least in China). Public restrooms could be a vector, though, given they are often crowded.

   The Delta Variant is presenting unprecedented challenge to China’s border defenses & internal response. Within the past 2 weeks, there have been 5 Delta Variant breaches in the country: the nosocomial outbreak at Zhengzhou in Henan Province, major breach at Nanjing Airport, quarantine hotel worker at Wuxi in Jiangsu Province, airport ground staff at Shanghai Municipality, & family of cargo flight crew at Xiamen in Fujian Province. Not to mentioned the infected airport staff at Shenzhen in Guangdong Province & the Delta Variant outbreak originating from Guangzhou in Guangdong Province (likely connected to quarantine hotels), both in Jun. Events at Zhengzhou & Nanjing suggest that vaccination of at-risk staff & weekly screening is not enough, sizable clusters have already developed before they were detected, in spite of regular surveillance. Frequency of screening for staffs may need to be increased to once every 2 – 3 days (for some reason China has never went for the rapid tests), and patients & caretakers may need to be regularly screened, too. Staff servicing international flights need to be strictly segregated from those servicing domestic flights. Workers at designated COVID-19 hospitals & quarantine hotels, especially those housing arrivals from abroad, need to be isolated from families & friends during their 2 week rotations (which should be policy already). This is not just a matter of vaccine efficacy, either. Singapore has also reported breaches through workers fully vaccinated w/ the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine at the Changi International Airport.

   With the lessons from the earlier outbreak at Guangzhou, I can already see the adjustments in pandemic response by Chinese authorities:

   1. Definition of close contacts has been greatly expanded. Everyone who attended the show at Zhangjiajie in the evening of 7/22 are F1 close contacts, as are all 2K+ staff who work the show, everyone on the boat cruise at Changde on 7/24, everyone who was at the Jingzhou high speed rail station at the same time as the party from Huai’an, & everyone who was on the same train as the party from Huai’an.
   2. Regardless of official risk level designation, local authorities are placing residential compounds & communities under lock down more quickly. Even compounds w/ only close contacts are placed under lock down.
   3. Local authorities trigger mass screenings at district or municipal levels much more quickly, normally within 24 – 36 hrs after discovery of positive cases, as opposed to waiting for 3 – 5 days in the past.
   4. Everyone trying to leave an area with positive cases need to furnish negative RT-PCR results with 48 hrs, as opposed to 7 days before.
   5. The government has essentially cut short the summer travel season (as it became clear that the outbreak was rapidly spreading from Nanjing & Zhangjiajie to across the country), w/ all the inevitable economic costs, in order to prevent the outbreak from escalating to Vietnam levels (now at 7 – 8K cases / day).

   Despite the inconveniences, these changes in policy have broad popular support. Everyone realizes that acting vigorously & quickly usually means restrictions can be lifted earlier. Nobody wants to experience what has happened in the rest of the world, or in Hubei Province during the 1st wave. In past outbreaks, resources from across the province/region/nation can be brought to bear to support the area in distress. If there are outbreaks all over the country, which can quickly happen under the combination of Delta Variant + summer travel + complacent population, it would stretch even the CCP regime’s formidable resources & organizational/mobilizing capacity.

   It also seems to be tacitly acknowledged that the Chinese inactivated whole virion vaccines will only slow the spread, not contain it. Speaking to my family and colleagues, especially those who work in the medical field, that Chinese inactivated whole virion vaccines have lower efficacy against infection that mRNA vaccines is not a controversial subject. Nevertheless, vaccination is still strongly encouraged. Slowing the spread still gives NPI measures a much better chance to catch up to an emerging outbreak (see Vietnam & Australia for examples of Delta Variant in populations w/ very low vaccination rates, even in face of vigorous NPI measures), & still very effectively reduce personal risk of hospitalization (though even asymptomatic cases are sent to medical isolation in hospitals in China) & death. China is currently at ~ 120 shots / 100 persons, but the fully vaccines population is probably still under 50%, & the inactivated whole virion vaccines need 2 weeks after the 2nd shot to reach peak protection. Vaccine rollout will also be hampered at places w/ active outbreaks, while NPI measures remain in place.

4. 4.

   YY_Sima Qian

   August 3, 2021 at 6:47 am

   In Wuhan, the municipal government has announced a city-wide mass screening starting from today. My residential compound has closed all side entrances, leaving only the main gate open for vehicular & foot traffic. Temperature & health code checks have been reinstated, though the vast majority of residents still have full freedom of movement, people are encouraged to stay home unless absolutely necessary. A residential compound next to the university campus my wife works at is under lock down, as there is confirmed case who resided there (close contact of the index case of the cluster). Two residential compounds next to the one we live in are also under lock down, perhaps temporarily, due to presence F1 or F2 close contacts. At at the nearby hospital, vaccination is on pause. Delivery services (meals, grocery & parcels) are still unaffected, if slower than normal. I have resumed wearing a mask while taking delivery & washing my hands after. As I normally work from home & have no business travels planned in the near future, there has been very little impact on my personal life.

5. 5.

   Nicole

   August 3, 2021 at 7:24 am

   Thanks for the thread about kids, Anne Laurie.  I’ve been getting really freaked out and anxious over being a parent to an under-12.  That thread was comforting because it made me feel like I have a little bit of power over the situation with his health.

   Said under-12 and I took an Amtrak trip (my first since the Before Times) this weekend, because they seemed like they were on it about masking and as we were a pair, neither of us would have to sit near strangers.  The trip out was fine, but on the trip back I saw several unmasked riders, and the train attendants, who are so quick to jump on you if you open your mouth in the Quiet Car, did nothing.  Like, scanned tickets from unmasked passengers and didn’t say a word.  It was really disappointing.  I’m not taking Amtrak again for a long time.

6. 6.

   Ohio Mom

   August 3, 2021 at 7:25 am

   I haven’t eaten any breakfast yet, not yet working on all my cylinders so take that into account when reading my summary.

   I followed the link about the Russian patient who’s had active COVID for 318 days. She has a form of lymphoma and is immunocompromised — a relief to hear this because most of us (me!) are not in this category.

   The scary part is how much and how quickly the virus mutated inside this hospitable environment.

   Combined with what I read last night in Reuters about the lambda variant, and my god, this could be the good old days of the epidemic.

   Okay, off to get up and start my day, maybe things won’t look so bleak after I eat.

7. 7.

   Amir Khalid

   August 3, 2021 at 7:32 am

   Malaysia’s Director-General of Health Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah reports 17,105 new Covid-19 cases today in his media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 1,163,291 cases. He also reports 195 new deaths today, for a cumulative total of 9,598 deaths — 0.83% of the cumulative reported total, 1.00% of resolved cases.

   Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is currently at 1.07. Terengganu has the highest statewide Rt at 1.30.

   There are currently 203,664 active and contagious cases; 1,066 are in ICU, 537 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 12,297 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 950,029 patients recovered – 81.67% of the cumulative reported total.

   30 new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 3,761 clusters. 1,143 clusters are currently active; 2,618 clusters are now inactive.

   17,068 new cases today are local infections. Selangor reports 5,834 local cases: 109 in clusters, 3,204 close-contact screenings, and 2,521 other screenings. Kuala Lumpur reports 2,280 local cases: 137 in clusters, 1,065 close-contact screenings, and 1,078 other screenings.

   Johor reports 1,275 cases: 288 in clusters, 725 close-contact screenings, and 262 other screenings. Kedah reports 1,036 cases: 71 in clusters, 590 close-contact screenings, and 375 other screenings. Sabah reports 1,010 cases: 146 in clusters, 527 close-contact screenings, and 337 other screenings.

   Perak reports 966 local cases: 121 in clusters, 497 close-contact screenings, and 248 other screenings. Kelantan reports 914 local cases: 229 in clusters, 482 close-contact screenings, and 203 other screenings.

   Negeri Sembilan reports 813 local cases: 85 in clusters, 459 close-contact screenings, and 269 other screenings.

   Penang reports 798 cases: 81 in clusters, 347 close-contact screenings, and 370 other screenings.

   Pahang reports 627 local cases: 97 in clusters, 453 close-contact screenings, and 77 other screenings.

   Melaka reports 508 cases: 93 in clusters, 293 close-contact screenings, and 122 other screenings.

   Sarawak reports 494 cases: 78 in clusters, 338 close-contact screenings, and 78 other screenings. Terengganu reports 429 cases: 90 in clusters, 289 close-contact screenings, and 50 other screenings.

   Putrajaya reports 72 cases: one in a cluster, 55 close-contact screenings, and 16 other screenings. Perlis reports seven cases: four close-contact screenings and three other screenings. Labuan reports five cases: one in a cluster and four close-contact screenings.

   37 new cases today are imported: 29 in Kuala Lumpur, three in Negeri Sembilan, two in Selangor, one in Kelantan, one in Perak, and one in Pahang.

   The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 468,526 doses of vaccine on 2nd August: 223,479 first doses and 245,047 second doses. As of midnight yesterday, the cumulative total is 21,668,999 doses administered: 14,471,138 first doses and 7,197,861 second doses. 22.0% of the population are now fully vaccinated.

8. 8.

   prostratedragon

   August 3, 2021 at 7:39 am

   Well, something or other is right on schedule. Eye fell on the tweet about Wangfujing as new ghost town just when a version of this piece came on the radio. This version features Yang In-Mo on violin.

   “Graceful Ghost Rag,” William Bolcom

9. 9.

   lowtechcyclist

   August 3, 2021 at 7:39 am

   We’re heading down to Florida in a week and a half, because that’s where my wife’s family is from.

   I’m dreading it.  It shouldn’t have been this much of a disaster area this late in the game, but here we are.

   So fuck you, DeSantis. Fuck you, Fox News. fuck you, GQP.  You’re all motherfucking traitors, happy to kill off Americans in order to further your political cause, such as it is.  It’s a shame we can’t lock all of you up and throw away the key, because that’s what you deserve.

10. 10.

    The Thin Black Duke

    August 3, 2021 at 7:50 am

    I’m pulling what’s left of my hair out. The lead singer of my band is sick. She thinks it’s Covid. She’s not sure because she refuses to see a doctor. It was then that she decided to tell me that she’s not vaccinated, and isn’t planning on doing so. She has no idea why I’m upset, and is pissed off at me because I told her that I’m leaving the band. Why are people so fucking stupid?!?

11. 11.

    JPL

    August 3, 2021 at 7:53 am

    GA doesn’t release numbers indicating whether or not children are hospitalized.  I think that number might convince more people to vaccinate.

12. 12.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 3, 2021 at 7:57 am

    @prostratedragon:

    Eye fell on the tweet about Wangfujing as new ghost town just when a version of this piece came on the radio.

    What is going on with Wangfujing? I assume you mean the shopping district in Beijing?

13. 13.

    Cermet

    August 3, 2021 at 8:05 am

    Had a bit of a scare for the people here at my office building; while it didn’t really worry me at all, my office mate (who’s wife recently returned from China) called in sick with cold symptoms; why wasn’t I worried at all as people here panicked? Because he was vaccinated as I was and frankly, that was more than enough to make me know that he was, in all probability, most likely suffering from a simple cold. He was tested and has a cold … so people her aren’t worried anymore. Even if it was Covid, I’d still be relaxed since I am confident the vaccination provides more than enough protection – of course, I’d isolate for ten days.

14. 14.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    August 3, 2021 at 8:31 am

    Kentucky’s “we’re fucked” county by county map has been turning red to the point of squeezing in on Louisville, all after the morons of our state legislature stripped Andy Beshear and local communities of pretty much all the standard pandemic mitigation tools because of the perceived notions of “freedom” held by deliberately-pig-ignorant drawling Christianist racist tools.

    I’m rapidly coming to the position that Stalin had the correct approach on religion.

15. 15.

    New Deal democrat

    August 3, 2021 at 8:32 am

    It seems pretty clear that Delta burns through the dry tinder very fast – on the order of 6 to 8 weeks from onset to peak, based on the experience of India and the UK. The US is about 5 to 6 weeks since the trough in cases, so it is a fair hypothesis that the peak is likely coming by the end of this month.

    But cases have increased 8x since the trough. If cases increase 8x again until the peak, that would put us at 700,000 cases/day! If the peak is only 1 week away, that’s still about 175,000 cases/day.

    Deaths are up 80% since the trough, at 385/day over the past week. Just a doubling puts us at 750/day. 8x is over 3,000/day. And since deaths lag cases by about 4 weeks, it could be even worse than that.

    91-DIVOC now tracks new people vaccinated, which is up 80% from the bottom just over 3 weeks ago – but that still is only 450,000 people/day. At that rate it would still take over 6 months just to vaccinate the unvaccinated adults in the US.  In short, while fear is driving the truly “hesitant” to get vaccinated, it isn’t nearly enough.

    Meanwhile, what exactly is the “dry tinder” for Delta? Is it the unvaccinated? Everybody? Or just those with a particular genetic or other predisposition? If it is one of the first two, then in a couple of months the US will have stumbled into herd immunity. If it is the latter, then the door is open for yet another variant to raise hell this winter.

    Based on India, where seroprevalence increased by more than 50% of the entire population post-Delta, and based on the curious cases of North and South Dakota, which had horrid outbreaks last fall with over 50% positive test rates, but which are among the States with the lowest per capita new infections now, I suspect that the former is the case.
    Right now positive tests are over 10% for the US as a whole, and almost 25% for the South, including 90% for Alabama! There are simply multiples of actual cases that are going undiagosed.

    If I am correct, then this month and next month are going to be brutal, followed by an actual return to near-normal life later this fall.

16. 16.

    trnc

    August 3, 2021 at 8:34 am

    @The Thin Black Duke: Yeah, I played with a couple of guys a few weeks ago. One vaxed, one proudly not. At the time, I thought, “Jerky, but I’m vaxed so I’ll give it a shot.” After the variant started spiking, I decided not to spend that kind of time around unvaxed, so I found a group of fully vaxed.

17. 17.

    Amir Khalid

    August 3, 2021 at 8:35 am

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    It also seems to be tacitly acknowledged that the Chinese inactivated whole virion vaccines will only slow the spread, not contain it.

    I was vaccinated with two doses of Sinovac. Should I worry?

18. 18.

    dr. bloor

    August 3, 2021 at 8:36 am

    Businesses and the White House think requiring Covid shots might turn things around

    Wanna get something done? Tell the money guys it’s going to cost them if it doesn’t happen.

19. 19.

    Sloane Ranger

    August 3, 2021 at 8:37 am

    Monday in the UK we had 21,952 new cases. Numbers once again lower than the day before so the moving 7-day average continues to go down. In this case by 27%. New cases by nation,

    England – 19,175 (down 2470)

    Northern Ireland – 872 (down 200)

    Scotland – 799 (down 235)

    Wales – 1106 (up 387).

    Deaths – There were 24 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday. This is an increase of 20.2% in the rolling 7-day average. 17 were in England, 5 in Northern Ireland, 1 in Scotland and 1 in Wales.

    Testing – 670,913 tests were conducted on Sunday, 1 August. The rolling 7-day average for testing is down by 13.9%. The PCR testing capacity reported by labs on that date was 699,025.

    Hospitalisations – On Friday, 30 July there were 5943 people in hospital and 889 people on ventilators. The rolling 7-day average for hospital admissions was up by 14.8% on 27 July.

    Vaccinations – As of 1 August, 46,872,411 people had received 1 dose of a vaccine and 38,464,025 had received both. This means that 88.6% of all adults in the UK had had 1 shot of a vaccine on this date and 72.7% were fully vaccinated.

20. 20.

    WereBear

    August 3, 2021 at 8:40 am

    The Confederacy is like a virus itself; keeping everyone infected in a chronic state of Messed Up.

    In every possible way.

21. 21.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 3, 2021 at 8:42 am

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    @prostratedragon:

    Nevermind, I see what you are referring to.

    My colleague in Beijing told me that a vice prime minister from Zimbabwe had tested positive in Beijing recently. He was supposed to undergo 21 days of home quarantine (as a courtesy, normally it would be 21 days of centralized quarantine upon entry). Before the end of quarantine, he went to the international section of Beijing’s Union Hospital, where he tested positive. The international section of the hospital was promptly shut down. On the Beijing Municipal Health Commission’s data dump, he was just mentioned as a “foreign national coming from Zimbabwe”.

22. 22.

    arrieve

    August 3, 2021 at 8:53 am

    NY is requiring vaccination at all state colleges and universities, so I just uploaded copies of my CDC card and Excelsior Pass. I’m starting my second year in a master’s program in the fall, and have yet to set foot on campus. Although one of my classes is supposed to be in-person, I’m betting they will all continue to be online.

    Even with a mask, I’m not crazy about the idea of sitting in a classroom, so that’s for the best. But I miss never having the chance for the random conversations with professors and other students that are part of the school experience, so I can’t even imagine how hard it is for younger students.

23. 23.

    Anne Laurie

    August 3, 2021 at 9:01 am

    @YY_Sima Qian: Sometimes I imagine a historian, some hundreds of years from now, perusing our comments here for their theses on The Plague Years, much as today’s scholars read Pepys or Dafoe…

    (Note: I am agnostic as to whether those future historians will be figures we would recognize as human.)

24. 24.

    Robert Sneddon

    August 3, 2021 at 9:13 am

    Scotland — 1,016 new cases of COVID-19 reported with 9 new reported deaths of someone who had tested positive. Test positivity rate is 8.1%. Hospitalisations and ICU bed occupancy numbers are slightly down from last week.

    Just over 18,000 vaccinations were administered in Scotland yesterday (Monday) with about 10% of those vaccinations being first doses. 72.5% of the adult population are now fully vaccinated with another 17.3% having received their first dose of vaccine.

    The First Minister is expected to give a statement to the Scottish Parliament soon about the expected changes to the current restrictions to occur next Monday. The Conservatives are demanding an end to masks in schools because, well, the SNP ministers are insisting on masking in schools. There may be a decision soon on vaccinating 12 to 18 year olds but the JCVI hasn’t made any statement on that subject yet and it’s likely to be a UK-wide process, in part to avoid vaccine tourism which hasn’t been a thing here in the UK because generally vaccination opportunities have been widely available everywhere.

25. 25.

    Robert Sneddon

    August 3, 2021 at 9:15 am

    @Anne Laurie: This pandemic is going to be the best-documented disaster in history, a million Ph. D students as yet unborn are going to pore over the records and torture the data until it confesses. Good times, good times.

26. 26.

    Just Chuck

    August 3, 2021 at 9:23 am

    My caption for that Lordi pic: “Side effects may occur.”

27. 27.

    ExpatDanBKK

    August 3, 2021 at 9:28 am

    Really? Long comment just disappeared into Byteland? ??

28. 28.

    Ohio Mom

    August 3, 2021 at 9:33 am

    @Robert Sneddon:

    I’ve been saying this since just about the beginning of the epidemic. PhD fodder not just for medical scientists and historians but just about every other field: education, sociology, economics, psychology, political scientists, social work, the list goes on and on.

    Oh, and media studies. The intersection of the internet and behavior, that should provide almost endless inquiry.

29. 29.

    Just Chuck

    August 3, 2021 at 9:42 am

    @Ohio Mom:

    I read that at first as as “endless injury”.  Still works.

30. 30.

    bluefoot

    August 3, 2021 at 9:42 am

    Where I am in the Boston area, some people have started masking outdoors again. In grocery stores, masking never really went below 70%, but is now looking like 90%. The news about Delta in kids is clearly making an impact, since nearly everyone is masked when there are kids around. Sadly, though, the norms are really different from neighborhood to neighborhood. I was in South Boston over the weekend, and masking was closer to 30%.

    I wish the Novavax effort was going faster. IMO, it will be the best/easiest way to vaccinate the entire planet. Supply chain, manufacture and distribution will be a lot easier, efficacy so far looks great, and with fewer side effects than the mRNA vaccines.

31. 31.

    MontyTheClipArtMongoose

    August 3, 2021 at 10:11 am

    @Just Chuck: finnish metal: gets vaccine.

    american metal: engages in trumpist insurrection.

    i sincerely doubt, as well, that lordi would bitch about being buffeted with peepee n’ poopoo like jon schaeffer.

32. 32.

    Robert Sneddon

    August 3, 2021 at 10:17 am

    @bluefoot: ​
      The “side effects” of the existing vaccines only appeared out of the noise floor once hundreds of millions of vaccinations had been carried out around the world and a few dozen anomalous adverse reactions were noted by the folks looking for such things (cerebral blood clots in AstraZeneca recipients, cardiac effects for mRNA vaccines). Novavax or any other vaccine isn’t guaranteed to be free of one-in-a-million effects, not when the testing cohort is, at max, fifty thousand people (i.e. a 5% chance one person in the test reacts badly specifically to the vaccination).

33. 33.

    bluefoot

    August 3, 2021 at 10:23 am

    @Robert Sneddon: ​
      Ah, I wasn’t referring to the SAEs, I was talking about the flu-like symptoms that have had people miss a day or two of work post-second shot for the mRNA vaccines. My hope is that it holds true in Phase 3. Then some of the vaccine-reluctant would be more likely (if misinformation doesn’t get them first) to get the Novavax since the likelihood of missing work (for those who really can’t afford to miss work) would be less.

34. 34.

    Just Chuck

    August 3, 2021 at 10:24 am

    Even in ruby red Colorado Springs, no one bats an eye if you’re masked in the grocery store or coffee shop or wherever.   The hardcore wingnuts seem to have moved to the western slope, because here on the front range where most people live, the conservatism seems to be more like the “stay out my business and I’ll stay out of yours” kind.  Not saying that’s the prevailing ethos, just a tilt.

35. 35.

    Robert Sneddon

    August 3, 2021 at 11:04 am

    @bluefoot:

      The mild malaise people get after receiving the various vaccines is the body’s immune system reacting to the proteins and other products of the vaccination process. If there’s no noticeable reaction at all it’s likely the individual’s vaccination hasn’t ‘taken’ and the body’s immune system is under-prepared to face a real viral invasion later. This is going to be statistical and anecdotal data isn’t really useful but I’ve not seen anything in the research press on this subject, in part because the reported effects are, well, subjective.

36. 36.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 3, 2021 at 11:23 am

    @Amir Khalid: The vaccine is still ~ 85% effective against hospitalization & death, based on big data out of Chile & Uruguay, against primarily Gamma & some Lambda Variants. Might be slightly lower against Delta, or about the same. I would definitely keep the mask on & avoid crowded environments, especially given the state of the pandemic in Malaysia. Then again, I would do so even if the shots had been Pfizer/BioNTech. Think of the  vaccine as an other layer of protection, but not bullet proof. Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine would have been a stronger layer of protection, but still not bullet proof.

    If you are in a high risk demographic, I would definitely recommend researching getting booster shots ~ 6 mo. after your 2nd Sinovac shot, either a 3rd Sinovac shot or a Pfizer/BioNTech.

37. 37.

    ExpatDan

    August 3, 2021 at 11:51 am

    Try long post again? If anyone cares. I seem to have the skill of closing out communication here on BJ ??.

38. 38.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 3, 2021 at 11:51 am

    @Anne Laurie: I hope the future historians do not consider the Plague Years of early 2020s to be a warm up act to the Cataclysmic Decades caused by Climate Change, & thus of only esoteric interest…

39. 39.

    ExpatDan

    August 3, 2021 at 11:56 am

    Bad juju here in Bangkok. Tho’ it’s pretty much the fault of the gummint and their (lack of) vaccine policy. They’ve gone from one of the best places to be (last year) to one of the worst (now). Here’s an update from TAT (Tourism Authority of Thailand). Pretty much everything is locked down tight here until the end of the month at least… https://www.tatnews.org/2021/08/thailand-expands-lockdown-in-29-dark-red-zone-provinces-from-3-31-august-2021/

    A bit scary for me, since I left a third of my left lung in Afghanistan. And I’m into my 2nd round of chemo for stage 3 stomach cancer (if anyone cares to help, I could use it…) I’ve, however, had both stages of the Sinovax (only thing available a couple of months ago when documents recommended it despite chemo)…

40. 40.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 3, 2021 at 12:36 pm

    @ExpatDan: Yeah, the time zone difference is definitely unfriendly to those of us in E/SE Asia. A.L.’s daily COVID update is about the only one that is posted at a good hour for me!

41. 41.

    YY_Sima Qian

    August 3, 2021 at 12:41 pm

    In the evening of 8/3, the Jiangsu Provincial Health Commission provided an assessment & summary of the outbreak in the province:

    Nanjing

    1. The flight from Russia that is the source of the outbreak landed at Nanjing Lukou International Airport on 7/10. The earliest symptomatic onset among airport staff was 7/13, w/ cases exponentially increasing (as measured by symptom onset) from 7/13 – 7/20, peaking at 7/25 – 7/27, then falling since.
    2. 44% of all cases related to the Nanjing Airport outbreak are airport staff, 52% are their close contacts, the rest are passengers who had flown out of or laid over at Nanjing Airport.
    3. Of the 220 cases reported by Nanjing so far, 50% were identified from centralized quarantine, 16% from home quarantine, 22% from screening of individuals deemed at risk of exposure, 7% from mass screening, & 5% at fever clinics after developing symptoms.
    4. 8.6% of cases < 14 y.o., & 13.6% of cases are > 60 y.o.
    5. There were 6 super-spreading evenings involving 5 – 9 cases, & 2 events w/ > 10 cases. The largest super-spreading event led to a transmission chain of 33 cases over 5 generations, involving 9 families & 2 poker parlors.

    Yangzhou

    1. Index case of the outbreak in the city had traveled from Nanjing to Yangzhou in the morning of 7/21, along with a sibling, despite the fact that the Nanjing authorities had issued guidance for people not to leave the city, except for emergencies. They did not notify their community workers or neighborhood committee of their arrival from Nanjing (which would have led to home to centralized quarantine), & instead went to play poker at a number of parlors as well as visit markets & shopping malls. The index case developed symptoms on 7/23, tried to self medicate & visit private clinics. The case finally visited a hospital on 7/27 after being turned away from clinics, & testing positive. By then, the case has already left several clusters in her wake. The case & her sibling have now been detained for violating laws & regulations related to pandemic response.
    2. The earliest case by symptom onset was 7/23, exponentially increasing since, & yet to peak. Of the 96 positive cases in the city, 64% had played poker at a number of parlors (3 associated w/ most of the cases), 16% at fever clinics after developing symptoms, 11% from mass screening, & 7% from centralized quarantine.
    3. Only 1 case is < 14 y.o., & 68.8% of cases are > 60 y.o.
    4. Of the 40 cases reported on 8/2, only 3 could not be directly traced to existing positive cases, but 18 were identified during mass screening or at fever clinics (initially testing positive on 7/31 or 8/1), even a few cases that are later established as close contacts of the index case, probably played poker together. This suggests that people who had played poker at the parlors are keeping low profile & not cooperating w/ the contact tracers. If they were cooperative, they would have been identified as close contacts sooner after the index case was discovered, & been in home or centralized quarantine by 7/28 or 7/29. These people are under tremendous public pressure for accelerating a major outbreak in the city, causing city wide lock down & screening. However, lying to contact tracers also results in detention & punishment.
42. 42.

    Bill Arnold

    August 3, 2021 at 9:41 pm

    @Ohio Mom:

    PhD fodder not just for medical scientists and historians but just about every other field: education, sociology, economics, psychology, political scientists, social work, the list goes on and on.

    I hope that large corpuses (corpora to some) of surveillance videos (e.g. at store/venue/business entrances) are preserved. Both levels of traffic relative to non-pandemic times and relaxations, and mask/face covering percentages will be of interest. (Same with other data, of course.)
    And yeah, future computational historians will be able to work wonders with this era’s data.
    e.g. twitter is a very large complex directed graph with nodes labeled with timestamps, with nodes(vertices) that we currently only have primitive tools (sucky “sentiment analysis”, etc) to analyze.