I wrote a short thing for the Atlantic’s Daily newsletter about some of the confusion around Delta.
Working on a bigger thing for next week but for now, this might be helpful —> https://t.co/BYGOfpHSpq
— Ed Yong (@edyong209) August 5, 2021
(That link now previews today’s newsletter on a completely different topic, so here are screengrabs of last night’s edition.)
4 nuanced ways to think about Delta: pic.twitter.com/yvDBdE6W0h
— Ed Yong (@edyong209) August 6, 2021
======
We vaccinated 8-10xs more people at our block party community clinic than we typically do at our mobile clinics, and here is what I learned 1/
— Dr. Hannah Tello, Ph.D (@MsHannahT_PhD) July 24, 2021
Education and vaccine access must happen at the same site; people need to be able to make the decision and access the vaccine immediately. Not an appointment next week or a site across town.
People who are unsure feel better when they come with their social group; our vaccines were outside, so their friends and family could sit with them the entire time.
A family friendly event with free activities for kids acts as free childcare for adults who cannot take time off to get vaccinated.
Incentives WORK. I alone spoke to 7 people who told me they decided to come because they could get a grocery gift card or (I kid you not) a free empanada.
People want to get vaccinated in the neighborhoods they know, with people who speak their language, with familiar faces.
Vaccines are not The Event; the Party is the event and vaccines just happen to be there. Get a DJ, food trucks, outdoor games. That way people who aren’t ready can still participate.
Many ppl had conversations at a resource table (we had a dozen community orgs tabling), and then that same person they were talking to stayed with them, just to talk, while they got their shot. Connections create trust and safety.
This approach to vaccination is high-touch. It’s an investment of time and empathy for every single vaccine. But it’s important to know that the remaining folks needed the shot are not are furiously resistant.
Some are just waiting for a person that will talk to them, sit with them. Others just need it to be too convenient to pass up. And some just really love empanadas :)
And if you are someone who has been doing Covid or vaccine work for a long time, and you are feeling like your empathy cup is empty, I get it. I do. But an event like this helps. My cup is refilled. I hope you get the chance to do the same because you deserve it.
Important to note this event required coordination of MANY: local and state health dept, FD, ambulance provider, city government for permits, local CHC, and every CBO who could save the date! All hands on deck!
Long form (paywalled) article, developing the above argument:
Thanks to @brycecovert for reaching out for her recent @nytimes op-ed. We need to continue to work on access to vaccines for those who want vaccines but still find it difficult to get them. https://t.co/CdOQZwDXyR
— Dr. Tara C. Smith (@aetiology) August 6, 2021
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Covid-19 is evolving too quickly for planners, @DanDrezner writes in @PostEverything https://t.co/OauucJrXCB
— Washington Post Opinions (@PostOpinions) August 5, 2021
… The problem, of course, is that the pandemic continues to evolve from day to day and week to week. A situation that looked fine a month ago looked more dire a week ago…
… I do wonder, however, whether folk are mistakenly extrapolating from the recent past to craft expectations about the future. Just as the past month proved to be a negative shock for those Americans convinced the pandemic had ended, this month might prove to be a positive shock: Those expecting a new disaster could be pleasantly surprised.
For one thing, the countries that have been hard hit by the delta variant are trending in the right direction regardless of their vaccination rate. While the data collection is spotty, India — the epicenter of the delta variant — has seen its case numbers decline from over 380,000 a day in early May to less than 50,000 now. The Netherlands has witnessed an even more drastic decline, from over 10,000 cases a day two weeks ago to fewer than 3,600 now. The United Kingdom has also seen its numbers fall by more than 50 percent just when everyone forecast a new surge…
The good news is that one explanation for the sharp rise and fall of the delta variant in other countries is that in places where an excess of 80 percent of a population has been fully vaccinated or recovering from infection, it’s harder for the disease to spread further. This means there are significant pockets of the United States where the delta variant could run rampant. But as vaccination rates start to rise again, and as more institutions mandate vaccination, those pockets will get smaller. The collapse of the Provincetown, Mass., outbreak (and the minimal loss of life associated with it) suggests that the more people get vaccinated, the less likely the delta variant will affect what Americans do this fall…
zhena gogolia
Would have been nice to have the slightest bit of help last winter when trying to get my shot. We were on our own.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
Ok this is just my inner pedant But.. WHY is the photo in that NYtimes tweet of an ungloved hand!?!! Picking up what I assume is a single use injection? From a jumbled tray of injectors?! Argh! Just no
Nicole
Buzzfeed News had a piece up about how the surges in Europe are also cause for cautious optimism:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/delta-variant-wave-uk-europe
The gist of the reasons for optimism is that, while yes, it sucks that Delta is contagious even with vaccination, A) vaccination means you won’t get seriously ill and B) fairly minor mediation strategies (masking indoors, avoiding large crowds) seem to be enough to get surges under control, without a need for major shutdowns.
Chetan Murthy
I wish we had more info on long covid in breakthrough infection cases. That Israeli study found that 19% of breakthrough infection patients had symptoms six weeks later: hence, long covid. That’s really worrisome, and is the reason (combined with cases skyrocketing here in SF) that I resumed N95 masking (with a tight band to hold that sucker close to my face, eliminate any leaks).
debbie
Local NPR station has been running promos for a report tomorrow about a company that has someone come to a person’s home and give them a vaccination.
Another Scott
The Tello tweet/thread is excellent news. I hope it gets a lot of visibility and helps get many more people vaccinated.
Mississippi still has abysmal vaccination rates (~ 42%) – I have to think that a real commitment like this from all the relevant organizations would help a great deal.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
RSA
@EmbraceYourInnerCrone:
Brr! Image-wise, it’s like one step away from a sharps container with a biohazard symbol on it.
Ken
@EmbraceYourInnerCrone: Pickup-Sticks for men. Or fools. But perhaps I am redundant.
Starfish
@Another Scott: Close to half of all COVID-19 tests in Mississippi are coming back positive right now.
Someone I know who was scheduled for her first vaccine at the end of the week had her test results come back positive today.
Another few people I know in the state are still unvaccinated. “So and so works in a nursing home, and the patients there were vaccinated and got it.” I told her that they got it but did not die. That is the difference. Also, people think because they had COVID-19 in the past, they can’t get it again.
Mike E
@zhena gogolia: I keep flashing back to Leap Day, Feb 29, 2020 having lunch with my daughter and thinking aloud we we’re going to be in this pandemic for 2 years… exactly a year later and seeing fits and starts around the distribution of vaccines and we both couldn’t imagine getting the shot within the next couple of months… then a door opened where solid wall stood before, after banging our heads repeatedly against it for what seemed like weeks, and I got the 1st shot as easy as you please; Miss E got hers a few days after that. Maddening and miraculous, but in these times it couldn’t have been any other way, seemingly.
Catherine D.
My sister is prodding her husband towards the J&J shot. He is majorly needle-phobic, but has at least been wearing masks. Their 26 yo son won’t get vaccinated because he’s heard it will make him infertile. Good thing his younger sister lives far enough away, or she would smack him upside the head with a 2×4. She works for the feds and got herself vaccinated as soon as she could as an essential worker.
dnfree
@zhena gogolia: yes, the lack of help last winter was astounding evidence of failure to plan. Government at every level knew vaccines were coming, and yet there was no plan, no integration of sites (computer and physical). Every state, at the least, should have been working on software. What was available was pathetically designed.
Argiope
@EmbraceYourInnerCrone:
In the real world of vaccine clinics this happens all the time. All of those are unused syringes; used ones go in the sharps box. All are capped tightly at the time we draw them, and only uncapped at the time of use. CDC doesn’t recommend gloving even for administering the injections, but out of an abundance of caution we’re filling landfills probably every week with nitrile. I’m okay with not gloving when we don’t need to…and gloves don’t prevent needle sticks. The business end of those is sharp!
Anoniminous
@Chetan Murthy:
We lack decent data on Long Covid. The few published studies are little better than mathematized anecdotal evidence, a couple of hundred non-randomly selected local cases from a global population of ~210 million (reported) giving a Confidence Factor of hardy-har-har. Compounding the problem is the Known/Known: asymptomatic and mild cases are under-counted because they don’t require hospitalization for Covid but did require hospitalization for the consequences of long term heart, brain, lung, liver … and kidney? … damage.
Chetan Murthy
@Anoniminous:
Yep, I’m not disagreeing at all with you. If “collected anecdotes” had shown that pretty much *nobody* gets long covid, then I’d feel better. But as things stand, purely out of prudence I’m acting as if a breakthrough case means decent chance of long covid. And I’m not gonna let that happen. Hopefully we’ll get more data soon, and I can relax.
Salt Water Cleanse
Thought experiment: would people be as resistant to getting vaccinated if the vaccine were a pill instead of a shot?
Seems to me Americans will eat or drink damn near anything with very little hesitation. It’s often a point of pride to be able to “eat anything,” or eat a ton of food quickly, or pop pills (prescription drugs or otherwise).
Like, it’s cool and macho to swallow anything but a huge ask to get a shot.
RSA
@Argiope: Thanks for your voice of experience.
Chetan Murthy
@Salt Water Cleanse:
Thought experiment: instead of “show proof of vaxx, or a negative test”, make it “show proof of vaxx, or eat this spoonful of sheep drench”. And I mean in order to enter any business, you gotta do that. Wouldn’t that be *hilarious*?
Goddamn I hate Branch Covidians.
Anoniminous
@Starfish:
“Close to half of all COVID-19 tests in Mississippi are coming back positive right now.”
Do you know the absolute numbers?
Chetan Murthy
@Starfish: wha? This link ( https://mississippitoday.org/coronavirus-in-mississippi/ )
says 5% positive ? Which isn’t great, but not 50%.
Ken
Probably. But then we could just hide it in their invermectin, like feeding a pill to a cat.
I wonder if it’s even illegal to put human medications in horse medications.
Another Scott
@Anoniminous:
CovidActNow says 22.7% positive in MS. It’s 57.6% positive in Jackson County (on the Gulf, East of Biloxi).
:-(
Cheers,
Scott.
smith
@Anoniminous: The 91 Divoc site gives numbers of tests per day for each state, both in raw numbers and normalized by population.
ETA: This site says 43.79% positivity for MS. I do not believe 5%.
Ken
@Chetan Murthy:
covidactnow.org has 22.7% for the state. Some counties are higher. I found Jackson County with a 57% rate, there may be others.Another Scott got there first.Scout211
@Another Scott:
Johns Hopkins says 47.75% for the past week for Mississippi
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/mississippi
43.01% for the past month
Starfish
@Anoniminous:
This is probably where I got that number from.
Anoniminous
@Chetan Murthy:
I may have miscommunicated so ….
1. Long Covid, aka “sequelae,” is A Thing
2. Sequelae is known to stem from severe, mild, and asymptomatic cases
3. The severity of the sequelae seems to bear no relation to the severity of the symptoms of Covid — AFAIK
4. Vaccination greatly lowers the chance of getting Covid-19. If a vaccinated person is one of the incredibly unlucky few to still contract the disease they will have a “mild case.” BUT — see #2 — even mild cases can develop sequelae.
Yutsano
@Scout211: The one thing the numbers agree on: the case count in Mississippi is too damn high!
Chetan Murthy
@Anoniminous: No, you got it right, and I understood. what the Israeli study said (to me):
But it’s one study (so, “group of anecdotes”). And there’s no differentiation into “mild” thru “severe” sequelae. So we can’t actually judge what the risk is, of life-changing sequelae, from getting a breakthrough infection. We just know that some decent number of breakthrough cases involved such sequelae.
At which point, as a prudent person, I decide “I’m going to do what it takes to not get a breakthrough case. Hence, “back to rigorous N95 masking”.
Ksmiami
I don’t mind if we make extra efforts to vaccinate underserved communities etc – for anti vax hold outs though- no more gyms, restaurants, concerts etc. I’m done
Anoniminous
Thank you all for the info.
Dan B
@Chetan Murthy: Same here – masking. Fortunately where I shop it’s 100% masking and 90% distancing, although that has slipped from the Spring.
I feel good that I had fatigue for four days after my second Pfizer. Seemed like the old immune system was saying “We’re fighting this full stop, no half measures!” It wasn’t the awful aches I’ve had from some year’s flu shots except mild aches after the first dose.
Adam L Silverman
@Catherine D.: Give your nephew these to read:
https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-mrna-vaccines-do-not-harm-male-fertility-study-671506
https://theconversation.com/covid-19-could-cause-male-infertility-and-sexual-dysfunction-but-vaccines-do-not-164139
As for your your sister and her husband, I strongly suggest the Lysistrata strategy until he gets vaccinated. Especially as they use such a fine gauge needle you can’t actually feel it.
Chetan Murthy
[deleted b/c superfluous]
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: Already fixed.
Another Scott
@Scout211: From the JHU page:
They apparently still have issues with the quality of their data.
CovidActNow says they use CDC numbers. Of course, everyone’s numbers should agree if they’re actually meaningful. :-(
Cheers,
Scott.
Suzanne
@Chetan Murthy: I am back to masking, and I am fine with it everywhere except for the gym/yoga class. There, it really pisses me off. But I do it, even though my face mask gets sweaty and disgusting.
Thanks, plague rats. Way to fuck this up.
JCJ
@dnfree: A big part of the problem was distribution. The one example I know is ProHealth Care in Waukesha, Wisconsin. They had the capacity to give 5000 shots per day, but did not know how many doses they would receive initially. For a while they were only getting about 1200 doses a day. The neighbor of one of my colleagues is an ER doc who works in two different health care systems. He was able to get a vaccine in the Froedtert-MCW system about a week before ProHealth had it available for ER staff. My brother got his first dose in Indiana through IU Dec 18th. They were offering it to all health care workers in the Lafayette area whether they were IU or not. I did not get my first dose until December 30th. It was all about the distribution which ProHealth had no control over. It was hard for the state of Wisconsin to plan not knowing the federal plans.
Jeffro
fuck all these carrots; let’s GO with the sticks
and maybe the country should be reminded, weekly, that we could have at least kept a lid on this thing if Mr “hoax”/super-spreader rallies/mask-mocker hadn’t given our country the worst pandemic response in the western world. We’ve been swimming against the tide for 15+ months now.
dmsilev
@Ksmiami: I think that’s coming soon. At least in some parts of the country anyway; a bunch of GOP states have already passed laws banning ‘vaccine passports’. What I’d really like to see is a vaccination mandate for air travel. Federally regulated, already controlled access, not life-essential (unlike, say, grocery stores), but very visible.
Adam L Silverman
@Salt Water Cleanse:
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: I was editing as you were commenting.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: Everyone’s don’t, because a lot of state’s are withholding certain types of data like Floriduh.
Suzanne
@Ksmiami:
I agree. If people want to be antisocial, they shouldn’t get to enjoy society. Keep your damn germs to yourself.
Once we can get the kids vaxxed, I am fucking done. They have given up so much. I am just barely hanging on here, social cohesion-wise. IMO, we should have vaxxed all the old people, then the healthcare workers, and then the immunosuppressed, and then the kids. Before the general adult population. We have totally failed at building this vaccination firewall around them and they are now the most vulnerable. This is so bad.
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: I think some of the concern right now is that despite Supreme Court precedent from 1905, as well as exceedingly specifically worded legislative language in the laws that establish the CDC in mid 20th century and even more exceedingly specifically worded legislative language in the post 9-11 legislation that further enhanced the CDC’s authority and powers, the Biden administration is rightly concerned that if a case gets to the current Supreme Court that everything is in play. Up to and including determining that the CDC is itself unconstitutional. The result of the actions of successive iterations of the Roberts’ Court is that the executive branch has now been trained to do as little as possible for fear that some wealthy wing nut will fund a suit challenging the action so as to provide the Roberts’ Court an excuse to rule that whatever that action was and/or whichever agency brought the action is/are unconstitutional.
Ken
@Adam L Silverman: I’m half-waiting for Floriduh to notice that everyone reports seven-day averages and switch to monthly reports, or stop entirely. All it’s doing now is putting steps into the plot of their exponential curve.
Scout211
More reasons for optimism. I guess using the courts is the way schools and businesses can fight back when the states pass laws not allowing vaccination requirements or mask requirements.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-233800189.html
Adam L Silverman
@Ken: Some time this month DeSantis will issue an executive order moving Florida to the Julian calendar for part of the year and the Mayan calendar for the other parts of the year.
We’re going to party like it’s the 12th Baktun baby!
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@RSA: it’s like a Lab Week “find all the wrong things in this picture “contest
?
Adam L Silverman
@Scout211: DeStupid will appeal this tomorrow AM asking for an injunction on the injunction until the appeal can be heard.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: I hear you but oh well: let them do whatever, let Biden & Co take it straight to the country about ‘unelected judges overstepping their authority’. Press HARD. We’ll be no worse off and might be a whole lot better
Dan B
@Catherine D.: There is data available that Covid has caused cases of erectile dysfunction. That may be covered in Adam’s links but if not a simple Google search should find credible medical reports.
It appears that Covid and the pandemic of disinformation shows that every organ can be damaged – including common sense from disinfo.
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: Given that the CDC’s power include quarantining people who are health hazards, my solution would simply be the CDC declaring the conservative majority a public health hazard based on their existing rulings regarding social distancing and limitations on attendance sizes at events and then and confining them somewhere where they have no access to the outside. No Internet, no cell service, no phones. And then just doing whatever they were going to do anyway. Just like at this point I think Florida should be declared a public health hazard, the Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi National Guard should be mobilized and stationed on the borders with Florida to prevent anyone from entering and leaving, the Coast Guard should be ordered to interdict all water based travel to or from any Florida port, and the FAA declare the entire state a no fly zone and restrict any and all air traffic into and out of the state.
An abject lesson is needed.
Adam L Silverman
@Dan B: It is, second link. Here’s another one from an Israeli study:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-md-analyzes-billions-of-sperm-finds-covid-vaccines-dont-harm-fertility/
Citizen Alan
@Adam L Silverman: I feel the same way. I am sick with fear over what this lunatic Court might do. Forget Roe v Wade, I’m wondering if Brown v Board of Ed is on the chopping block and how many current Justices would support separate but equal. But for me, the nightmare scenario is SCOTUS taking us back to Lochner and, in the process, striking down the EPA. Imagine that it could be literally unconstitutional for the Federal gov’t to do ANYTHING to mitigate climate change.
Adam L Silverman
@Citizen Alan: Overturning Brown and Loving and Abington and anything that came out of the New Deal are the ultimate goals. Roe and Griswold are simply means to those ends. The intention is to overthrow desegregation, return the issue to the states, and then when cases start bubbling up, completely carve out an exemption for any and all bigotry and discrimination that can be justified according to one’s religious beliefs. Especially if those beliefs are Christian.
Another Scott
@Jeffro: +1
The Pandemic is a public health emergency and emergency measures – authorized by law – have needed to be implemented (and continue to need to be implemented). The SCOTUS is not super-powerful. They know that if they overstep the boundaries they can lose jurisdiction or their structure can be changed (Fight for 15!!) or more circuits can be added, and all the rest.
Make them say that Biden’s CDC is wrong.
Similarly, the GQP’s attempt to take a minority position and impose it on the rest of the country can be fought by adding states, and/or expanding the House. The Apportionment Act of 1929 is a law – not a Constitutional Amendment.
Let’s see, 104 Senators + 1500 Representatives (one for every 233,000 or so), that might be a lot harder to twist in an anti-democratic way (but I haven’t checked as carefully as I know others have). Redoing the National Mall for a 1500-seat House (and all the member offices) would add lots of great construction jobs, also too.
Cheers,
Scott.
Suzanne
@Adam L Silverman: One thing that really did piss me off about the vaccine was the period side effects. Lots of people reported having weird periods after getting the vaccine. I did, and I never heard that it could be a side effect. It would have been nice to know, because it was alarming. I know others here experienced similar weirdness, as well as the lack of communication. I would still have gotten the shot, but it was really concerning and knowledge would have alleviated the concern.
Many women are used to being neglected by doctors and this kind of thing is why. This is how this fertility fear gets going.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@RSA: the big ring, which would not be good for the structural integrity of a pair of nitrile glove IF she were wearing any, is just the cherry on the whole thing. Why yes I am a pain to watch movies with cuz I can’t stop myself from getting annoyed at the glaring mistakes ?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
Couldn’t the rest of us, including the Executive Branch, just ignore such an insane/asinine decision? The SCOTUS doesn’t exactly have any way to enforce its decisions by itself
Further, overturning landmark cases like Loving and Brown v Board of Education would create immense backlash, enough to paint targets on the backs of the justices who overturn them
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Yes and no.
Ohio Mom
I read a discouraging twitter thread today by an Infectious Disease expert who compared the Covid vaccination to wearing a bike helmet, in a place where everyone is on a bike. It protects you from the worst if you crash but even if everyone wore a bike helmet, there would still be crashes and injuries from crashes.
COVID isn’t like say, polio, where once you have it or a vaccine, you are immune. If there is one unvaccinated person surrounded by people who have been vaccinated for polio, no polio virus is going to be able to reach that unvaccinated perdon — which is what we mean by herd immunity.
There is no one-and-done to Covid. You can carry and disperse virus particles after you’ve been vaccinated. Herd immunity isn’t going to happen.
Get vaccinated, yes, that’s metaphorically your bike helmet protecting you from smashing your brain to smithereens.
But you could still fall off your bike and get a nasty bruise on your leg, or you could do something thoughtless and cause another rider to fall off his bike. You wearing a helmet doesn’t protect the other rider, he has to be wearing his own helmet.
None of this is anything I didn’t know before but somehow this metaphor put all the pieces together for me. This pandemic is going to be a very long slog and our best hope is that it mutates into something was vicious.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
Do you mean “no” to the second sentence? I don’t see how bringing back “separate, but equal” as a legal standard would not create huge outrage
Ksmiami
@Suzanne: decisions have consequences- enough coddling adolescent adults
Ksmiami
@Citizen Alan: if the not at all Supreme Court wants to blow itself up…
Ken
Now I want Weird Al to do a Prince parody where we party like it’s Nineteen-Nineteen-Nineteen-Seventeen-Nineteen. Probably lost the topicality.
Mai Naem mobile
I am done with these people. I don’t know about Southern states with their crappy public infrastructure but in Phoenix, I don’t believe in undeserved communities anymore with the vaccine. These are just selfish asshole free riders. These are the same fuckers like the California teacher who didn’t want to pay Union dues but wanted the benefits. I know several people. A few who i am pretty sure didn’t tell me they had COVID when they had it(and I was around them for a few minutes) and weren’t quaranting. Now they tell me they don’t need the vaccine because they had COVID. I’ve tried to talk to people who believe the Bill Gates chip deal, that the vaccine sterilizes them and ‘you can’t sue the vaccine manufacturer if something happens.’ Also a guy who’s afraid of needles. I just don’t care anymore.
Citizen Alan
@Another Scott:
We don’t even need that. It’s the 21st fucking Century, and we’ve just spent a whole year demonstrating how effective telecommuting works for nearly all white collar professional jobs when people put their minds to it. Allocate 435 Washington HOR offices to both parties on a seniority basis and let everyone else work out of their in-district offices. Honestly, I wonder if my local Rep, the treasonous blob Trent Kelly, would even run for reelection if it meant he had to stay in Tupelo instead of grifting in D.C.
barbequebob
@Salt Water Cleanse:
“Put the vaccine in Hot Pockets. Nobody worries about what’s in those.
https://twitter.com/bazecraze/status/1416404472050462728?lang=en
Alex Baze
@bazecraze
·
Jul 17
sab
Those community party vaccination events sound like potential superspreader events to me. You aren’t protected immediately after the shot. It’s not until six weeks later, a couple of weeks after your second shot.
satby
@sab: the point is that those events were going to happen anyway, the vaccine distributors piggybacked off the events to reach more people.
bluefoot
@Adam L Silverman:
I would like to subscribe to your newsletter. :) Less humorously, these people are a clear and present danger to both our republic and rule of law and to people as individuals (by pushing policies etc that will cause more people to die from what is now a preventable disease).
I wish I knew more effective ways to combat this.
sempronia