Delta has been around since 12/20. Maybe further mutations that make it more infectious, but no obvious immune escape variants. ‘Goldilocks virus’: Delta vanquishes all variant rivals as scientists race to understand its tricks https://t.co/VyuSZ8dTXs
— Prof. Peter Doherty (@ProfPCDoherty) August 9, 2021
A piece worth reading in whole, and possibly forwarding, from the Washington Post. (Also at MSN):
… The speed with which [Delta] dominated the pandemic has left scientists nervous about what the virus will do next. The variant battles of 2021 are part of a longer war, one that is far from over.
Delta is sending thousands of people into hospitals every day and has knocked the Biden administration back on its heels. In a few short weeks, the delta variant changed the calculations for what it will take to end the pandemic.
Epidemiologists had hoped getting 70 or 80 percent of the population vaccinated, in combination with immunity from natural infections, would bring the virus under control. But a more contagious virus means the vaccination target has to be much higher, perhaps in the range of 90 percent.
Globally, that could take years. In the United States, the target may be impossible to reach anytime soon given the hardened vaccine resistance in a sizable fraction of the country, the fact that children under 12 remain ineligible and the persistent circulation of disinformation about vaccines and the pandemic…
Because the delta variant replicates so well when it gets inside human cells, the infectious dose may be lower. Infected people may also begin shedding the virus sooner and in greater quantities. It’s a numbers game, and delta has numbers on its side. Rapid replication of the virus has probably shortened the period between a person getting infected and becoming infectious, to perhaps two or three days rather than five or six.
The flip side is that the delta surge is expected to peak faster. A more contagious virus finds susceptible people quickly and burns through that “fuel” faster. This may explain why the United Kingdom and India have both experienced surprisingly swift drop in cases after recent delta surges…
RT @edyong209: "Lower risk is not no risk…. Delta represents a more serious danger to everyone—which means it’s a more serious danger to kids as well."
A clear and thoroughly reported piece from @KatherineJWu about pediatric Delta cases. https://t.co/a4HALfNWkk
— Global Health Observ (@GlobalPHObserv) August 10, 2021
… The COVID-19 vaccines have done an extraordinary job of stamping out disease and death. But as the hypertransmissible Delta variant hammers the United States, the greatest hardships are being taken on by the unvaccinated, a population that includes some 50 million children younger than age 12. Across the country, pediatric cases of COVID-19 are skyrocketing alongside cases among unimmunized adults; child hospitalizations have now reached an all-time pandemic high. In the last week of July, nearly 72,000 new coronavirus cases were reported in kids—almost a fifth of all total known infections in the U.S., and a rough doubling of the previous week’s stats. “It’s the biggest jump in the pandemic so far” among children, Lee Beers, the president of the American Academy of Pediatrics, told me. Last week, that same statistic climbed to nearly 94,000.
The most serious pediatric cases are among the pandemic’s worst to date. In the South, where communities have struggled to get shots into arms and enthusiasm for masks has been spotty, intensive-care units in children’s hospitals are filling to capacity. In several states, health workers say that kids—many of them previously completely healthy—are coming in sicker and deteriorating faster than ever before, with no obvious end in sight.
Kids remain, as they have been throughout the pandemic, at much lower risk of getting seriously sick with the coronavirus, especially compared with unvaccinated adults. But the recent rash of illnesses among the nation’s youngest is a sobering reminder of the COVID-19 adage that lower risk is not no risk. With so many children unable to access vaccines and their health contingent on those around them, parents and guardians must now navigate the reality that Delta represents a more serious danger to everyone—which means it’s a more serious danger to kids as well…
The timing of Delta’s pediatric spike couldn’t have been worse. Many hospitals have for months been cracking under pressure from an unseasonal surge of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and parainfluenza—two other airway pathogens that can cause serious illnesses in the very young. Both viruses, typically fixtures of the chilly late-autumn and winter months, had all but evaporated during their typical November-to-February heyday, likely suppressed by pandemic-caliber masking and distancing. When those precautions began to slip, “boom, RSV hit us like a boulder,” Sharon Stoolman, a pediatric hospitalist at Children’s Hospital & Medical Center in Nebraska, told me…
Another upside is that although the coronavirus may be changing, the tools that thwart it haven’t. Delta is a substantial enemy, but not an undefeatable one. To protect kids, the AAP has championed the same layered approach that protects adults: combining masks, good ventilation, hygiene, physical distancing, access to testing, and vaccines for everyone who’s eligible. This tag-team tactic will be especially important as kids head back to school in droves this month and next, Grace Lee, a pediatrician at Stanford University, told me…
Vaccines your can snort https://t.co/6QA54ABeWS
— Adam Taylor (@mradamtaylor) August 10, 2021
… Vaccines that are injected into arm muscles aren’t likely to be able to protect our nasal passages from marauding SARS-CoV-2 viruses for very long, even if they are doing a terrific job protecting lungs from the virus. If we want vaccines that protect our upper respiratory tracts, we may need products that are administered in the nose — intranasal vaccines.
Can they be made? Probably. Will they do what we want them to do, if they are made? Possibly. Is there still room for this type of next-generation product, given the record number of Covid vaccines that have already been put into use? Potentially. Will it be difficult to get them through development? Likely…
Intranasal vaccines have multiple advantages. They don’t require syringes, cutting the expense of vaccination and the amount of medical waste an immunization program generates. A vaccine that can be puffed up a nostril probably doesn’t require a health care professional to administer it; the oral polio vaccine used in many developing countries is dripped into the mouths of children by trained volunteers.
And intranasal vaccines are — in theory, anyway — easier to administer to children and people who have a phobia of needles. That said, Kate O’Brien of the World Health Organization said in her experience as a pediatrician, children are not necessarily much more willing to take the nasally administered flu shot, FluMist, than a jab. “It doesn’t solve the delivery issues,” said O’Brien, the agency’s director of immunization, vaccination, and biologics.
There are challenges to making vaccines that are administered this way. Research on intranasal vaccines that don’t use live viruses to trigger immune responses — inactivated vaccines — have over the years produced disappointing results, Edwards said.
And it’s not yet clear if the mRNA vaccines that have been so important in the pandemic could be reformulated to be delivered intranasally…
Some vaccine researchers aren’t sure that when it comes to the work of developing intranasal vaccines, the juice is worth the squeeze. Many virologists believe that over time, as people’s immune systems develop experience with SARS-2 — either through vaccination or infection — the virus and humans will reach a détente with SARS-2, becoming like the four human coronaviruses, one of the causes of the common cold. “If this really is a cold virus, more than a flu-like virus, we may not care,” Perlman said.
Krammer, though, thinks there’s a role for the vaccines now. The one Mount Sinai is developing is produced in eggs — a low-tech, inexpensive production approach that could easily be adopted in low- and middle-income countries that don’t have the capacity to produce the more high-tech mRNA vaccines…
And as a closer, a shining example for the rest of us pitiful slackers…
Navajo Nation: The only place in America with a 91% vaccination rate. The Navajo population has been hard hit by Covid. The nation has a comprehensive strategy—masks, gathering limits, vaccines https://t.co/GSn8G4TN4U pic.twitter.com/DdnuqmAyg4
— delthia ricks ?? (@DelthiaRicks) August 10, 2021
Raoul Paste
Give the country back to the Navajo, and let them run it
Also, it is fascinating that nasal vaccinations would be more likely to reside and remain in the nasal passages
West of the Rockies
Does anyone think that at least some Republicans feel at least embarrassed by the terrible Covid stats in red areas? Maybe 2 or 3 out of 100?
CaseyL
@West of the Rockies: Probably in much the same way they used to be “embarrassed” if someone in their family was raped: it was her fault, and we must never speak of it.
scav
@West of the Rockies: Wouldn’t those prone to such emotions already likely be “independents”?
MattF
[deleted]
rikyrah
@West of the Rockies:
Which is why they are latching onto the HORDS OF MIGRANTS ARE BEHIND THE SPREAD OF COVID.
David Fud
Anne Laurie, thank you for the excellent children oriented links. Good info for those of us who need that.
germy
This is not fine.
https://thenib.com/this-is-not-fine/
The Thin Black Duke
@West of the Rockies: No, they’re not embarrassed. It doesn’t matter how many people die as long as they don’t get in trouble. They Don’t Care.
MattF
@West of the Rockies: No, never embarrassed. Perhaps… a tiny bit concerned about the votes of those suburban moms whose kids they are endangering.
PsiFighter37
Certainly doesn’t make me feel optimistic that things will go back to anything resembling completely normal anytime soon.
Cermet
I’d love for the hack … I mean WP writer … to explain exactly how the Biden Admin has been “knocked back onto its heels” considering they’ve done everything the CDC has asked and really made vaccines super available. Oh, that’s right, the previous admin had their heads up their ass’s and that isn’t being knocked back onto its heels – that was outright mass murder.
germy
@Cermet:
Last night, one of the broadcast news stations (NBC I think) asked if Biden could bounce back from the Cuomo resignation.
dexwood
@PsiFighter37: Normal is dead and buried in an unmarked grave.
Old School
My oldest daughter has a phobia of needles. If a nasal version is created, she would probably be less scared. She was interested in the Russian gum version that was in a COVID update a while back. However, I don’t think Pfizer/Moderna/J&J are looking into that delivery method.
Of course, she’s getting the shot as soon as she’s eligible.
trollhattan
@West of the Rockies:
My hunch: any Republicans with functioning capacity for embarrassment are called “former Republicans.”
MattF
@Cermet: The question is where, exactly, are the WaPo writers getting their narratives. Not from anywhere in my field of view, so it must be from somewhere else.
trollhattan
Now this is good news.
Betty Cracker
We just found out my husband’s aunt, who had shoulder surgery a while back and was in rehab for physical therapy, got COVID at the facility and is now in the hospital with pneumonia.
Before vaccines, she did everything she was supposed to do stay safe. We helped with shopping, etc. When the vaccines became available, she got in line immediately and received her Pfizer shots.
And now, probably due to an unvaccinated idiot who works at the rehab place, she’s got the virus. So do several other patients — there’s an outbreak.
We’re hoping for the best, but given her age and co-morbidities, it doesn’t look good. I don’t have words for how angry I am.
germy
@trollhattan:
He’s wrong! Cloth masks provide 20% protection…
Kelly
@Old School: We need a deep fat fried vaccine that we distribute at county and state fairs. It’ll reach the Trumpers.
MisterForkbeard
@Kelly: “Eat this deep friend stick of butter and you’re protected against the democratic hoax virus!” is probably a winner, yeah.
Old School
@Betty Cracker: Oh no! Here’s hoping the vaccine helps her fully recover.
Scout211
https://news.yahoo.com/win-san-antonio-bexar-county-002319414.html
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker: Fuck. I am so sorry to hear that.
Nicole
My kid’s school (K-8) announced yesterday that not only are vaccinations required of all employees, but all eligible students must also be vaccinated (as kids age into being eligible they’ll get a time frame to get vaccinated). They’ll be masking, like last spring, and parents will have to continue to drop the kids off outside the school; no going inside if you’re not an employee or a student. I’m grateful.
Meanwhile, a friend in a red part of Michigan is in an almost constant battle with her kid’s school, which started out proclaiming no masks, no testing, no reporting of cases, but is now backtracking a bit with the Delta surge to, “Uh, we haven’t made any final decisions yet.”
rikyrah
@Betty Cracker:
Prayers for her, BC :(
rikyrah
@Betty Cracker:
Did they give her Monoclonal Antibodies Treatment?
Brachiator
I appreciate the nuance here. Lots of “may,” “probably” and “perhaps.” Previously too many reporters and lay people were blandly asserting that herd immunity and a return to normal was just around the corner.
This is certainly something to look out for. This might be of some help to those conservative states that insist on being stupid.
Meanwhile I wish that reporters would demand answers from red state governors who continue to ignore the CDC. What science are they following? How do they intend to fight the Delta variant?
cain
@West of the Rockies:
If they are, they likely aren’t republicans anymore. These people think all of that is a success criteria for “owning the libs”. They prefer self harm.
rikyrah
@Brachiator:
That would be too much like right.
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
This is terrible. Are they doing anything to test people or to change any of their procedures?
Wishing her the best. That she has been vaccinated and even her gender might push the odds in her favor.
germy
Scout211
https://abc7news.com/vaccine-mandate-for-teachers-california-school-vaccinate-requirement/10944163/
This is good news for the the students, teachers and staff of California schools. The first report was in Politico, so I guess we should wait for the actual press conference. But still.
Ken
I wonder if a properly-phrased letter from a lawyer would help with the decision-making process. I’m thinking of phrases like “clear endangerment” or “failure to take adequate and obvious precautions”.
VeniceRiley
@Betty Cracker: That is alarming and I am so sorry.
Perhaps this is why?
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html
And this may be why WHO is in such a tizzie about tamping down demand for boosters….
Ken
@germy: DeSantis was probably at a campaign rally in Michigan or somewhere when the ventilators arrived.
Nicole
@Betty Cracker: I’m so sorry. I’d be furious, too.
rikyrah
@VeniceRiley:
the MOMENT they say that we need a booster, I am there. Period.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
So in other words the problem isn’t Delta is particularly dangerous to kids, it’s Delta is infecting so many kids once there are enough kids seriously ill to overweleme the hospitals.
topclimber
@germy: Is that 20% protection for others or the mask-wearer? I thought cloth and surgical masks had a higher success rate in the latter case vs. the former.
Benw
@Nicole: man, that would such a relief!
Our district actually received guidance from the county DHS that social distancing, mask, tracing and quarantine are all required, but vaccines are up to the district. Of course, our district, which sent a “give us our skool’s freedum!” letter to NYS last spring (and got slapped down), is consulting with their legal counsel, probably to weasel out of as much safety guidelines as possible.
I just didn’t understand before COVID how little the lives of children mattered to these people.
germy
@VeniceRiley:
planetjanet
@Betty Cracker: I am so sorry for you and your family. This is a horrible, preventable tragedy and those entrusted with the care of your aunt have caused unspeakable harm. I offer my prayers for her recovery and peace for you.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Scout211: Oh BTW speaking of Abbot, no one is allowed near him without a COVID test.
Benw
@Betty Cracker: FFS sorry to hear this. Hope she pulls through.
Brachiator
@West of the Rockies:
I don’t care how they feel. I want to see conservative governors questioned about how they are handling the virus.
If they want to deny the pandemic, I want it on the record.
I want to know what they feel is an acceptable level of death.
If they are suppressing data in their states I want that on the record as well.
They can prattle about freedom and personal responsibility all they want, but it still comes down to public health policy. Maybe they don’t think that this is a legitimate function of government.
Bill Arnold
@germy:
Any sort of mask filtering indoors exhalations from a virus-shedding SARS-CoV-2 infected person (often asymptomatic) will block a lot of infections, especially if the all the other people indoors are masked. (Best that we rapidly switch to N95s though,, especially in places where there is no indoor mask mandate so there is no significant source control via masks.)
Rand Paul has no moral standing anyway. Early in the pandemic he risked his Senate colleagues lives by mixing with them while infected, and now he’s advocating for the Freedom To Kill Random People. (If it’s not a Constitutional Right, it should be, they will argue.)
Ruckus
@Kelly:
The deep fried Twinkie delivery system.
Sounds like a winner.
Nicole
@Benw:
Yeah. I’m done with any right-winger’s “but think of the children!” protest against ANYTHING. They showed their asses but good the past 18 months.
Major Major Major Major
I did more math! Some limited figures from NJ indicate 80% vaccine efficacy against symptomatic illness. Slightly lower than the English figures, but as I said the inputs are kind of crappy on this one, and most importantly, no reason to panic!
Ruckus
@Brachiator:
Science?
I don’t need no stinking science!
dmsilev
A comparative study:
Why the difference? Well, here’s one possibility:
“Defense in depth” is a concept that seems to elude a lot of people for some reason. The vaccines are great, but they’re not Star Trek defense shields and of course not everyone has gotten them. Masks are a good backstop. Follow that with indoor capacity limits and improved ventilation and so forth.
Ruckus
@germy:
Well he is one of the least aware humans, so nothing new here.
Ken
“I’m gonna go with my gut, and right now my gut is telling me…. it’s shutting down because my blood oxy saturation is under 15%.”
Major Major Major Major
@Betty Cracker: ugh! How awful. Hope she pulls through.
dmsilev
@Major Major Major Major: The NYT did an analysis of all the states that they could get data for. The timebase is “the entire vaccination campaign”, so not just the current delta-driven wave, but still it’s something. Topline numbers:
Later on in the article, they do the more useful analysis of looking at hospitalizations per 100k for the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Again, there’s a wide variation between states, but in rough summary:
Hoodie
@rikyrah: Yeah, defensiveness is a typical response to embarrassment.
Delk
@Major Major Major Major: thanks!
Miss Bianca
@Betty Cracker: : (
Keith P.
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: What about if you shout “HIPAA VIOLATION! LIBERTY!” over and over again?
chopper
@Betty Cracker:
holding her in the light, as they say. fuck these unvaxxed assholes.
Hoodie
That discussion that links an upswing in RSV to relaxation of masking and social distancing seems off because they say it’s “unseasonal,” which I assume means the level of RSV is not just increased, but greater than normal for this time of year. How does masking and distancing affect that? It’s not like there’s some reservoir of RSV that got stored up from last fall/winter and is now being released. Is there some type of potentiating effect arising from kids not being exposed to RSV for an extended period of time because of masking and social distancing and thus not developing an immunity to it?
rikyrah
@Bill Arnold:
Tell it over and over.
rikyrah
@Nicole:
Pro-life my Black Azz.
Phuck all these lying trifling tricks.
Ramiah Ariya
@Betty Cracker: In my complex, an entire family was infected last November. Of the four affected, two were bed-ridden old people with various co-morbidities, both close to 90 years. They all made a complete recovery.
cain
@Brachiator:
It would be great if we who all have blogs made a concerted effort to call out the press in regards to their complete abdication of responsibility to press red state governors on their mitigation strategy against the virus. Instead, they just follow the same damn horse race mentality – and it works all of us jsut sit around and criticize them drawing more eyeballs so they can have exposure to their ads.
We have to break this stupid cycle.
Fair Economist
In terms of “rapid decline after Delta peak”:
The India numbers are nearly useless. They don’t have the systems to report accurately, not even for deaths, and their government is deliberately disinforming on top of that. Insofar as their numbers mean anything, they’ve stabilized at numbers far above the lows of last winter. Even with all their reporting issues, the ongoing and apparently stable death rate would be comparable to tens of thousands per year in the US, a major heath issue comparable to traffic or overdose deaths.
The UK had a substantial drop of about half over 2 weeks – and then it stopped. Cases are now increasing again, albeit slowly, and deaths have continued to increase throughout.
I’m now swinging back to the view that COVID will create a “new normal” where we will have to maintain some level of defenses indefinitely, likely including periodic boosters, masking, ventilation improvements, and restrictions on large indoor gatherings of strangers. Maybe something like intranasal vaccines will let us drop the public health measures, but that chicken is still very much unhatched.
Benw
@Nicole: yeah
That and their “thoughts and prayers” aren’t worth shit.
gwangung
It’s FRACKING COMMON SENSE.
Major Major Major Major
@dmsilev: “the entire vaccination campaign” is annoying to work with if you’re calculating efficacy, since it demands calculus…
New Deal democrat
“The flip side is that the delta surge is expected to peak faster. A more contagious virus finds susceptible people quickly and burns through that “fuel” faster.“
I expect US cases to peak around Labor Day . . . . And then what? That is the big question.
dmsilev
@Major Major Major Major: Yeah, well, we work with the data we have…
dmsilev
@gwangung: Common sense is disturbingly uncommon.
gene108
@germy:
They can keep you from spreading your respiratory germs to others, which is still effective in controlling spread.
Betty Cracker
Thanks, all. We don’t have details about treatment yet, and of course we can’t go see her. My MIL seems optimistic, but that’s her nature.
@Ramiah Ariya: That’s good to hear, thanks for sharing that! Auntie is a tough old bird, so maybe she’ll be okay too.
MisterForkbeard
@rikyrah: Same. As soon as the CDC recommends a booster, I’m signing myself and my wife up.
Likewise, the moment the vaccine is available for kids (some doctor commenters on LGM say they’re hearing this will be approved in September) my two kids will be getting shots.
Ken
Just like typhoid. We’ll never again have the freedom to shit in the well, and will be forever burdened by having to wash our hands after wiping our asses..
charon
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1425492860619481098
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1425493540029620231
<BLOCKQUOTE>” … Why is this important? Because we need to protect the protected, the fully vaccinated. Sure we want to get more people vaccinated, but truth engenders trust. And truth helps guide people to be safe, use masks, distance, ventilation and all the other tools we have and know helps. … “</BLOCKQUOTE>
Major Major Major Major
@dmsilev: like that one week in NJ (80% efficacy), or an earlier calculation I did on Arizona finding 90%, or the PHE stats showing ~85%!
Peale
@Fair Economist: yep. The UK appears to have stalled out at an alarmingly high level of transmission. Does that count as a victory?
gene108
@VeniceRiley:
WHO is in a tizzie because poorer countries have almost no access to the vaccine, which creates breeding grounds for more variants, and every booster bought by a wealthy country is one less shot that could’ve gone into the arm of someone in a poorer country.
piratedan
I gotta say it sure is interesting how the framing for blame works… the CDC and the Feds say to keep masking and get your vaccinations… Red state govs like Ivey, Abbott, Ducey, Desantis, Noem etc claim that “you’re not the boss of me!!!” and defiantly claim that they will not bow to odious Federal rule regarding what they should and should not mandate…
Then virus comes along with no fucks to give and starts cutting thru the swaths of the unvaccinated, which happens to include kids because hey, this is STILL pretty new stuff and we don’t KNOW how their bodies will react and the MSM paints this red state defiance as a ping against Biden even though he’s done everything in his power to solve the problem that the red states have inflicted upon themselves. They question Biden about what’s next instead of asking the asshats who have exacerbated the problem as to why the fuck are you being idiots about this.
I know that NBC is a big corporation and without their little offshoot of MSNBC, I shudder to think about how much they contribute to the goddamn problem. Who the hell is putting these frames into place?
Keith P.
@Benw: Maybe the solution is to start a rumor that COVID is an effective means of aborting a fetus? I’m not overly optimistic that would work, since the GOP gave up on at-will employment sometime before last week, when companies started firing unvaccinated employees. With the teacher’s union opposed to vaccine mandates (or is it masks, or both?), they must really be confused on what they’re for/against.
Major Major Major Major
@charon: even Israel says not to read too much into the Israeli figures and I don’t see how you get his number without it. And the idea that no figures from the US are admissible is like… what? (I am not an epidemiologist)
gene108
@Brachiator:
How can reporters ask questions to Republican governors about their handling of COVID, when they avoid press conferences?
Republicans rarely make themselves available to non-friendly audiences
MisterForkbeard
@Major Major Major Major: Yeah. I mean, I get his desire to be cautious, but that 50% number isn’t born out by the data. At least, not yet.
VeniceRiley
@gene108: Thanks for Xsplaining. But, to type more to clarify, that is the point I was making, actually. That WHO wants to get that message out in front prior to a predicted uptic in demand for boosters that governments will get pushed into approving. I thought that logic would not need to be stated outright. I suppose I was wrong. Happy to spell it out though.
charon
@Major Major Major Major:
Is there really much difference, qualitatively, between 60% and 80%? I can’t see the difference having much impact on my behavior.
Sure Lurkalot
@Benw: I would think that having “active shooter drills” as frequently as fire drills in schools would have had some parents questioning their political affiliation. It does seem that the RW embraces many things that actually endanger children but this is MOST WORRYING.
gene108
@Fair Economist:
India reinstated lockdown measures, which is how they have been able to get cases under control.
Fair Economist
@Peale: The UK stall is definitely a victory compared to pre-vaccination. Deaths are down about 90% (although probably not finished climbing)
but –
It’s not nearly enough of a victory to go back to normal. A 90% reduction from what was, at the time, the absolute worst health emergency in at least a century still leaves a really big problem.
WereBear
@gene108: Geez, wasn’t the press corpse going hoarse complaining about Biden not throwing any press conferences or something?
They are in the bag! On the take! Spineless excuses for professionals.
Major Major Major Major
@charon: Would you rather have a 60% chance or an 80% chance of winning the next presidential election? Would the difference influence your behavior? Who you donate to and volunteer for?
charon
@Major Major Major Major:
Oh please! Is apples v. oranges the best you have?
Brachiator
@gene108:
You put the question to them when they poke their heads out. You put the question to their office.
Whenever they come out with some nonsense about the pandemic, you note their response or lack of response to these fundamental questions.
Another Scott
A colleague just pointed me to this new paper from the MayoClinic on Medrxiv (a preprint server – not yet peer reviewed).
Be prepared for the scaremongering that Pfizer is only 42% effective against Delta!!1
It’s not true because Infection =/= Serious Illness. The vaccine is still amazingly effective against serious illness, hospitalization, and death even for Delta.
Get your vaccine. Wear your mask. Stay out of confined spaces with others. All that stuff still works, and will continue to work.
Cheers,
Scott.
Major Major Major Major
@charon: I mean you already told me your opinion on apples so I don’t see what choice I have. Unless you just wanted my opinion on apples too. I think a 25% difference in personal risk would change my behavior, yes. (ETA: as Fair Economist notes below this number looks even more dramatic if you Bayesify it)
Fair Economist
@charon:
The best way to think about risk with large changes is in terms of betting ratios – the ratio of (chance of happening)/(chance of not happening). This comes out of Bayesian Decision Theory, which is the only way to respond consistently to complex risks.
60% to 80% is (40/60) = .67 to (20/80) = .2
Your relative safety more than triples with the change. It’s substantial.
Major Major Major Major
@Another Scott: That preprint has a huge pile of caveats…
…not that it isn’t a valuable data point.
Another Scott
@germy: +1
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Bluegirlfromwyo
@germy: DeathSantis is lying. Full stop.
@Nicole: They showed their asses long before with thoughts and prayers and kids in cages. We were just hoping against hope that their own children ending up in the hospital would change things.
Fair Economist
@Another Scott: Note the huge confidence interval – 13-62%. Basically, not enough cases to say much.
JimV
My “can” is not going to snort any vaccines!
Yutsano
@Betty Cracker: Oh no. I hope her vaccination will help her recover. Love and healing light to you and your family right now.
Ramiah Ariya
@Fair Economist:
This is not actually true – it has been implied in the Western press, with liberal assistance from partisans in India that the govt is deliberately disinforming numbers.
However, by “govt” these people mean the Modi govt which is the Central (federal) govt of India. The Central govt does not count deaths in India – local governments such as municipalities do.
From the beginning of the pandemic, the Indian Central Ministry of Health and Family Welfare website had had two sections – the total numbers and the breakdown from the states. These two sections have generally tallied.
If you think the Central govt is cooking up numbers, you would have to believe that they somehow control the thousands of local municipalities and state governments (much of which are run by opposition parties) which actually report the deaths.
It is a Big Lie style conspiracy theory, run with the assumption that no one reading these articles in the press would actually understand the Indian administrative system.
I can point to other such misinformation that appeared in the West. In May, the British Medical Journal ran an editorial slamming the Modi govt for letting states purchase vaccines directly. The editorial claimed that when the surge was going on, the Modi govt was trying to pass on blame to state govts.
However, if you actually followed politics in India, a bunch of opposition-run state govts had been clamoring for such direct purchase of vaccines. Not only that, some of the states had claimed that the Modi govt was deliberately holding back vaccines and PPE from opposition-run states! (This was not true either)
In other words, once the Modi govt did what the states actually asked for, Lancet claimed that they were trying to pass the blame. It appeared they were informed more by Twitter than actual realities in a country like India.
I am no fan of Modi, politically speaking and worked actually in election campaigns against the BJP, but I do not like the extreme misinformation about Covid in India from partisans either.
Just Chuck
Sandy Hook. Cages. Covid. They are fucking monsters.
Another Scott
@charon: We also need to keep in mind the error bars (“confidence interval”) on these numbers. 50% with 95% CI (10%-90%) leaves a lot of margin… (I.e. 40% is not much different from 60% with such broad CIs.)
[eta:] Fair Economist got there first in #103.
Cheers,
Scott.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Another Scott: Yes, I thought the vaccine was the difference between getting sick for three days like a normal flue or being ill for a month, if you are lucky.
marklar
@Fair Economist:
Back in the 80’s, there was some interesting work out of Paul Slovic’s lab (in Oregon) that found that experts tend to scale risk quantitatively, while laypeople scale it according to ‘dread’ (e.g., how horrible the symptoms could be).
Your assessment of the relative risks of 60% versus 80% makes sense, and would sway homo-economicus, but for most people, the degree to which they fear the symptoms of COVID (coming down with it themselves or passing on to others) really doesn’t change much with the chance of infection, especially when comparing numbers within the same order of magnitude.
New Deal democrat
Alternative explanation: Boris Johnson declared “Freedom Day” from all restrictions coincidentally with the peak.
Fast forward two weeks: Delta found a whole new batch of dry tinder to infect.
Ksmiami
@piratedan: write to Comcast- that’s the parent company
Ksmiami
@Just Chuck: Absolutely- if you’re a Republican today , you’re a horrible excuse for a human
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Ramiah Ariya: I have seen videos of Indian doctors claiming that the deaths are undercounted because the sheer scale of crises rather than an any deliberate conspiracy. A lot of people end up dying at home and being buried in their home village because there is no hospital space, stuff like that.
Fair Economist
@Ramiah Ariya: Dude, you don’t seriously think I’ll believe that the numerous states controlled by the BJP don’t also answer to Modi. Or that the national government defining a COVID death as requiring laboratory proof prior to death didn’t grossly exacerbate India’s reporting issues.
And no, I don’t think the BJP causes *all* of India’s problems (just a lot of them). Don’t bother beating that straw horse.
wenchacha
@Betty Cracker: Anyone working in a medical or rehab facility should be vaccinated. Period. Or tested every damn day.
Kristine
@Betty Cracker: my best wishes headed in her direction. And yours.
Matt McIrvin
@Brachiator: The UK’s drop has halted and reversed, I think because they went ahead with lifting a whole lot of COVID restrictions.
Matt McIrvin
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I’ve been looking at the age breakdown of cases, hospitalizations and deaths in Massachusetts all along. Even with Delta, it’s overwhelmingly the elderly who are in the greatest danger. Just being 30 years younger gives you more protection from severe disease and death than full vaccination. Being old physically sucks, and that’s true for Delta COVID as it is for so many other things.
It’s just that younger people are less likely to be vaccinated and they have more cases. And with enough cases, you’ll have some severe cases. Also, you fill up a hospital bed longer if you don’t die.
schrodingers_cat
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: The deaths in India have been undercounted by a factor of 10. This has been corroborated by many independent sources taking into account excess deaths and obituary notices etc.
One example of what I am talking about:
A Gujarati (from Modi’s home state) journalist was scouring newspapers in his home state and comparing the obituaries to the official death counts in real time.
This tweet is from June
I was following this story as it was unfolding.
Procopius
@piratedan: I’d like to see that question asked more often. Who are the biggest stockholders in the company? I’ll bet it’s a couple of hedge funds and two or three pension funds. They’re the ones who set the values everyone at NBC adheres to. I really would like to find out who they are, but don’t know how. I mean I want to know the names of the CEOs of the five or six biggest stockholders. They have far too much money to invest.