Here’s a place where you California peeps can share your thoughts and reasoning related to question 2 on the recall ballot.
Leaving the blank surely looks crazy to me – a sure way to guarantee a Republican governor if the recall is successful. Maybe that’s the goal if Newsom loses? Let the Republicans have the governor’s mansion, have their hands tied for the next year, then the Republicans get voted out and put a Democrat, possibly Newsom, back in?
I am guessing that Newsom is thinking more about his political prospects in 2022 than he is about keeping the governor a Democrat, no matter what.
Share your thinking here. I have linked this in the sidebar so you’ll have access whenever you fill out your ballots.
billcinsd
I have heard that Newsom’s people were telling people not to answer the 2nd question, but I am a long way from CA.
dmsilev
There aren’t really any plausible Democrats on the ballot, just a bunch of randos with no real government experience. So, the choices IMHO boil down to “lesser of many evils Republican” or “leave blank”. Neither is a great option.
My hope is that the idea of “Governor Larry Elder” is sufficiently polarizing that it helps goose Democratic turnout.
rikyrah
Leave it blank
VeniceRiley
Already mailed. Left blank. But, as far as I can see, Newsom is doing a bunch of fundraising when he needs to be on air and social media with California’s success stories. Plus a heaping dose of pile on the f’wits that bought us this madness.
Another Scott
Not a Californian, but concentrating on getting Democrats to turn out/return their ballots to vote No seems sensible to me. Why muddy the message? Why enhance to status of any candidate on the other side?
Worse comes to worst, a GQPer is in office for a few months and turned out on November 8, 2022, right? And that GQPer would be unable to pass any horrible legislation through the legislature.
I guess we’ll see what happens.
Cheers,
Scott.
Roger Moore
Unfortunately, there isn’t a Democrat with an actual track record of governing on the ballot. The Democrats on the list:
As far as I can tell, none of those people has ever held elected office. So we’re basically stuck with either the best of a pathetic lot of Democrats or the least terrible Republican. I’m tempted to go with Kevin Faulconer, who wasn’t excessively horrible as mayor of San Diego.
Roger Moore
@Another Scott:
That GQPer governor would almost certainly fuck up our COVID response, so it would cost thousands, maybe tens of thousands, of lives. That’s the reason it’s probably worthwhile to try to find the least bad Republican.
TheOtherHank
Californian here. I voted No on #1 of course. Then on the assumption that any Democrat is better than any California Republican, I did a couple minutes of googling and picked the D that seemed like they were polling the highest compared to the other Ds
UncleEbeneezer
Leave it blank. That’s what every CA Dem headquarters has been telling us, and what we are currently writing on our GOTV postcards.
namekarB
There are no big name Dems on the ballot so the choices are the least damaging Republican (Faulkner was mayor of San Diego and is at least sane) or an inexperienced or unknown Democrat. This household is going with “No” on the recall but backstop with a vote for John R. Drake who just graduated from Junior College, and hasn’t had the time or experience to know how to be corrupt but also won’t know how he is influenced by lobbyists
MisterForkbeard
My understanding is that polling/study of the LAST recall basically said that having a muddled message (“No on the recall, and then vote to replace Gray Davis with this other Dem on Question 2”) was confusing and contributed to Davis’ loss.
That said, I did about 30 minutes worth of research on question 2 and Paffrath gets the highest of any Dem on polling. He’s either ahead of Elder by a little or maybe 10 points behind, which is horrifying. But since I’m operating on the “any dem is better than any republican” mindset, it looks like Paffrath is my vote for question 2.
But really, Newsom needs to be out and proud about his covid response. Make ads. Own it. The entire thing sucked, but thanks to his programs California has rebounded well economically and we’re doing way better than other red states in terms of health and so on (after the initial whack, where blue states got hit first and badly). I don’t see much from him, though I do get texts from his campaign.
MisterForkbeard
@TheOtherHank: <high five>
That’s exactly what I did.
Scout211
@Roger Moore:
I was wavering on Ventresca because he lists a history of being a part of various Democrat leaning public service groups in the voter information booklet. But he also calls himself a “Berniecrat,” whatever that is.
My husband left question #2 blank and I still may do that, but like WG, it just feels wrong to me.
In the end, it doesn’t really matter because none of the candidates who claim they are Democrats are polling even close to Elder or Faulconer.
TheOtherHank
@MisterForkbeard: Paffrath was my guy too.
Chetan Murthy
in my phonebanking training here in CA, they specifically told us (when someone asked) about question #2, to recommend leaving it blank for the reasons @Roger Moore: noted.
MisterForkbeard
@Scout211:
Polling is REALLY sparse (like, maybe 2-3 polls?) but the few I’ve seen show that Paffrath is leading the Dem pack. In one, he’s down 13% to Elder’s 23%. In the other (the SUSA poll that had Newsome down by 9%) he’s beating Elder by 4% or so.
But I don’t really know.
Comrade Colette
Ugh. This is such a terrible (ridiculous, anti-democratic, waste-of-public-money, etc., etc.) choice to have to make. I resent the hell out of even having to think about anything beyond “NO” on the first question, but I don’t think leaving question 2 blank is going to help.
@Roger Moore:
I keep hearing variants on this, but “not excessively horrible” is about the best one can say of him. I’m torn between voting for the least-worst of the Rs and the least-worst of the Ds, if I can even figure out who that is. This is one election where I really, really wish we had ranked-choice voting.
WaterGirl
@rikyrah: How does that make sense? I don’t understand that.
owlbrick
@Another Scott: You hit the nail on the head. Back in 2003, when we ended up with the Governator, people were deeply confused and conflicted about the option of voting for an alternative, and many people were misinformed about the process. Post election polling and research showed that enough people thought that they had to vote yes on the recall (question 1) for their selection of a candidate in question 2 to count that it probably threw the election to the Republicans. This time they made a conscious choice to keep the messaging pure: vote no, full stop. Get out the vote, and don’t get bogged down in contingencies. Either we will get out enough voters to defeat it, or we won’t, in which case they will have enough to remove him, and second choices won’t matter.
Baud
I hope CA doesn’t fuck this up.
Glidwrith
Sigh. No on recall, of course. But leaving the second part blank goes against the grain. It’s not implausible some dipshit with 8% of the vote becomes governor. I don’t want to enhance Faulkner’s standing, any thug is guaranteed worse and the Dems may not be real ones. Will be talking to hubby and 1st time voter son to work out what seems best.
Jerzy Russian
We just have to get enough people to vote “no” and mail in those ballots. If it comes down to a binary choice, Faulconer would be a lot better than Elder. I hope it doesn’t come down to that.
I know it is a little late, but it would be nice to either get rid of that recall mechanism, or if not, simply have the Lt. Governor take over if the Governor is recalled.
trollhattan
No actual and/or high-profile Dems on the ballot is at the behest of the CA Democratic Party, who hope to avoid the last go when enough folks evidently decided to recall Davis for that nice whatsisname Lt. Gov fellow. Sad day that was.
I do not know if this is a winning strategy. If Larry Elder remains the top Republican it could be he’s so toxic he cranks up the Dem turnout and swings sufficient no party preference voters to get a clean no vote majority. (Isn’t that what we thought would happen to Trump?)
Confess I do not know how to game this. A Republican will win the selection part. Do we vote least-worst Republican? Does that person exist? If recall happens, some junk human becomes governor and sets fire to as much stuff as he possibly can. Also, too, DiFi gets all the attention Susan Collins and Joe Manchin are accustomed to.
Ruckus
@Roger Moore:
Pretty much the way I see it as well.
My only problem is that let’s say Kevin Faulconer gets the nod and isn’t freaking horrible, you know he’d run in 2022 and stand a chance because the dems have Newsom.
@VeniceRiley:
I wonder if he’s thinking that enough folks will see this for the sham it is. The fact that he’s begging for funds this late and not actually campaigning gives me pause as well. It is Newsom. Not a horrible governor, better than any republican in my lifetime, although that’s a damn low bar.
WaterGirl
@owlbrick: Why don’t second choices matter?
trollhattan
@Comrade Colette: He supported Trump with zero guns to his head. Do not want.
Dennis Brown
I wrote the name of the Lieutenant Governor, Eleni Kounalakis (yes I had to look it up, I didn’t remember who was Lt Gov)
way2blue
Ugh. I will vote NO on the first part; undecided on the second part. There is a pending court challenge to the recall ballot owing to Newsom not being listed as a choice in the second part—triggered *I think* by UC Berkeley Prof. Chemerinsky’s recent Op Ed. < from sfgate.com >
Comrade Colette
I have no problem with the public message being “fuck ’em, leave it blank,” but behind closed doors of course I’m actually going to cast a vote on Q2. I understand what happened with the muddied messages on the Gray Davis recall but I’m not personally confused; I know perfectly well that in the event the recall succeeds, my vote on Q2 will be counted regardless of how I vote on Q1.
Cynical, moi?
owlbrick
@Another Scott: Although, as @Roger Moore pointed out, a R governor will absolutely fuck up our COVID response, not to mention taking every possible opportunity to undermine our state government. CalEPA, police, etc… there’s a ton of damage that could be done. But it’s still most important to get out the vote and stop the recall, because that’s the only way this doesn’t go to hell.
Mike in NC
I just finished reading “Zero Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Secret Service” by Carol Leonnig. Basically a history of the agency from JFK to Biden. The chapters dealing with the Orange Clown are as would be expected: nauseating! It covers the obscene amounts of money charged to taxpayers to upgrade several of his properties, the millions of dollars spent on his weekly golf outings, his superspreader hate rallies, and so on. Trump viewed the Secret Service as gofers and potential Brownshirts to carry out his every whim, such as attacking the peaceful protesters in Lafayette Square. The agency needed to provide protection of 41 people (his huge family — including the adult criminals — and cabinet members). The agency struggled to carry out its mission even as Trump tried to cut their budget.
The irony is that a lot of agents disdained Hillary Clinton for not serving them coffee and cookies like Barbara Bush did. Overwhelmingly composed of white males, many also shared Trump’s contempt for women, minorities, and immigrants. A number of them kept red MAGA hats on their desks. The author estimated that the taxpayers footed $600 million in expenses for Trump.
Scout211
@Baud:
It’s already f*cked up. Most of us loyal Democratic voters are frustrated that the state Dems and the Newsom people seem way too quiet and haven’t been active enough campaigning to stay in office. Harris and Biden say they will campaign but they are only doing it in social media and emails so far. People are already voting so they need to get here and get here quick.
The only thing that may save us is the fact that all active registered voters have been sent a ballot in the mail. It is much easier to fill it out and either mail it or leave it in a drop box than show up at a polling place for one question (in two parts).
SiubhanDuinne
I haven’t followed this story very closely, but my biggest concern is that California gets stuck with a Republican governor and during his/her term (even if the gov is voted out in November 2022) Senator Dianne Feinstein resigns or dies.
Does CA have a provision that an appointed replacement must be of the same political party as the official they’re replacing? If so, then I guess we could hold the Senate. If not, though, Mitch once again would hold the whip hand.
I haven’t checked to see what state law says about this — and how the calendar might play out — but I find myself wishing that DiFi had submitted a gracious resignation a couple of months ago and let Newsom name a solid Dem to take her seat.
Would love for Californians to weigh in and tell me I’m wrong.
Baud
@Scout211:
It may be hard for them to campaign while Afghanistan is going on. Besides, it’s August, which is a bad time for campaigning generally. I expect things will pick up after Labor Day.
Brachiator
I am torn. I do not want any Republican to win should Newsom be recalled, but there is no Democrat on the ballot worth voting for.
If this crap ever happens again, the Democrats maybe should consider putting the Lt Governor on the ballot as the DEM option.
Larry Elder appears to be leading on some polls. He must not win under any circumstances. This possibility makes be wary about just leaving the choice blank.
But I don’t want to be suckered into choosing “moderate” Republican mayor Kevin Faulconer. He does appear to be the least crazy Republican.
There is a real estate broker Kevin Paffrath running as a Democrat. But I don’t really know anything about this guy or whether he can be trusted.
Another Scott
@VeniceRiley:
Eh? He seems to be in campaign mode from the stories I’m seeing. SacBee:
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
owlbrick
@WaterGirl: Because there’s no good way to unify the Democrats with an effective GOTV strategy while also campaigning for a replacement, so all viable candidates stayed out intentionally. That’s what bit us last time. So, they are campaigning on leave it blank. That means that the only Dems on the ballot are not worth voting for… the highest polling one of them is a youtube real estate mogul who wants to use the national guard to round up the homeless and increase property values for speculators. It might be worth it in order to prevent a Republican takeover, but only barely; and campaigning for it is much more likely only to decrease turnout and/or otherwise muddy the waters.
Ruckus
I say I am in agreement with everyone else – this is screwed up.
I’d also say that of course vote NO on #1, there is no really reasonable alternative.
I also raised the question of not voting on #2 because I remember the last time what happened. It was a CF and this time appears to be pretty much the same, even if for different reasons. I don’t think there are any good answers here, other than vote NO on #1. It’s turn out, turn out, turn out, turn out. There are far more dems than rethugs so if turnout is good…
Scout211
@Baud:
Yes, and isn’t Harris in Asia right now? I would be happy to see the second gentleman and the First Lady campaign. Because the ballots are already being sent in by voters. Labor Day seems too late.
trollhattan
@Scout211:
If I can offer a glimmer of hope (they call me Mister Sunshine) everybody and their uncle was freaking the fuck out when Meg Whitman was papering the state with her super fancy mailers and dominating television and radio with ads 24/7. “Why is Jerry Brown hanging out at the ranch? Why isn’t he campaigning like a beast?”
Jerry waited, and waited, and then came out and campaigned calmly, professionally, not-flashily, and stomped Megs back to Paypal or wherethefuck ever on election day.
I’ll trust Newsom and team are sufficiently on this to do the right thing. They have the money and resources and I think they’re waiting to see if he has to campaign against the recall, or against Larry Tattoo-You Elder.
jl
I’m leaning toward Faulconer, after voting no on the recall. I haven’t made up my mind. If Newsom is recalled, and some crazy gets elected, it will be a mess. We have a Democratic legislature, but the governor has plenty of emergency powers right now to mess up a lot of very time sensitive life and death issues: covid response, wild fires.
owlbrick
@Baud: That will be cutting it pretty close… the special election is September 14.
VFX Lurker
I got my ballot two Fridays ago. I dropped it off the next day in a secure ballot dropbox, and my ballot got counted last week.
I followed The Los Angeles Times recommendation for my ballot: NO on Question 1, Faulconer for Question 2. The Times does not support Faulconer. They just see him as the least-worst of the likely options should California Democratic voters sit out this election and allow Republican voters to win on Question 1.
I donated to Adam Schiff’s anti-recall fundraiser. I have also written 56 Postcards To Voters so far to voters in California. The script I’m writing on each postcard goes as follows:
I’m also including “CADem.org” and #StopTheRepublicanRecall on each postcard.
I reaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaally don’t want California to hang its head in shame this September.
Scout211
@Brachiator:
Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante was on the ballot when Gray Davis was recalled. As many have mentioned here, that fact is exactly why they recommended not to vote on question #2 and also decided that no viable California Dem should be on the ballot. The recall process is so confusing, voters thought they had to vote to recall Davis to be able to vote for Bustamante.
Edited for clarity
MisterForkbeard
@way2blue: Really, they need to change the recall law. More people should need to vote to recall the officeholder than voted for them in the first place. You’re not running against the people voting ‘no’, you’re running against the people who voted last time whose vote you’re trying to negate.
It’s a high bar, and that’s good.
Baud
@Scout211:
@owlbrick:
If they come out, it’ll be to boost turn out, not to persuade people.
JaneE
If the recall is successful we will have a GOP governor. The only possibility of something else is that Democrats vote for a single candidate. Which of the total unknowns who say they are Democrats do you pick? So far as I know there is no verification of party affiliation, so you have to take the word of someone you have never heard of.
You can’t even write in Newsom.
I only hope enough Californians know what 2 years of GOP governorship could mean. Even with a Democratic legislature, there will be damage. Dead children if they do what they have threatened and remove all covid regulations.
Brachiator
@trollhattan:
It’s all about the turnout. Voters have to care enough to prevent the Republicans from getting ahead.
trollhattan
@jl:
I can’t find a definitive list stating which appointments require senate approval and which do not. I just know there are a lot of category 2.
Plus, the whole “With the fire exceeding a million acres, everybody is wondering when the new governor is going to request federal emergency assistance for fighting it” thing. Larry Elder will insist we let the markets decide whether it needs to stop burning and offers ten cents an hour for any hobo who wishes to be on the front line.
MisterForkbeard
@Brachiator: Paffrath is… well, he made some money doing real estate. Then he made more money doing advice and social media. He’s really young (~30) and most of his ideas are okay – he looks to be aggressive about trying to resolve the homeless situation in a humane way, which I like. But in general he’s a moderate-left Dem without a large paper trail. (EDIT: This is his page on homelessness. Basically, house everybody as fast as we can. Unrealistic given the housing market here, but it’s not horrible).
I have some issues with one p roposal, which is to relieve traffic congestion by creating lots of underground highways. This strikes me as basically impossible, so I’m not too worried about it. The Dems in state congress basically aren’t going to put up with any crazy shit from him, so he’s safe from that perspective.
owlbrick
@Brachiator: They put the Lt. Governor on the ballot last time and campaigned on a vote no on 1, vote Bustamente on 2 platform; it backfired.
Faulconer has moved further right recently, along with the rest of the party… He’s pretty much in line with McCarthy and the rest of that ilk.
Kevin Paffrath wants to use the National Guard to round up the homeless, so while he’s at least a Democrat, it’s not much of an endorsement otherwise.
Because there’s no real consensus Dem, and no time for any of them to build a platform, there’s no good way to select from the choices. The only way to make it work is to defeat the recall itself. In that way, it literally doesn’t matter who people vote in the second question; all that matters is the first. If we turn out the vote, it is defeated, Dems win. If not, Repubs win. Muddying the choice only causes confusion and lowers motivation.
Ruckus
@way2blue:
The problem with this is that if he’s recalled he stops being governor.
I believe the law is actually pretty clear on this because if a majority says he must go, then he can’t be governor. That’s the point of a recall in the first place.
The law is written badly but clearly. It is intended to get rid of someone the majority now thinks is doing badly. I’d wish it was a majority of voters not a majority of those voting as that might raise the stakes but could also backfire.
For me the entire process needs to be rethought, a much higher percentage of signatures required in the first place, a higher entry cost and not just the candidate with the most votes, for a replacement candidate they must take at least a majority of the votes cast, or the recall is thrown out. Just some ideas off the top of my head.
MisterForkbeard
@owlbrick: What I’ve read on Paffrath is basically: Use the national guard to build homeless shelters. Once the homeless shelters are in place, move the homeless out of parks and so forth into the shelters.
Which is… a solution, I’ll grant. It might work, but it’s not like “Make the NG construct large shelters” is going to be fast, cheap, or particularly nice places to live.
I’ll entirely admit that I’m willing to deal with him because he’s got the best chance of beating Elder if Newsom gets recalled.
trollhattan
The county ballot game is on point.
Brachiator
@Scout211:
Crap. I forgot that Bustamante was Lt Governor.
His problem back then was that he came across as a bumbling hack.
namekarB
Any vacancy in a statewide elective office can be filled by the governor, subject to legislative confirmation. Democrats hold a majority in both house of the legislature.
dmsilev
@Ruckus: I really wish the law was “if a non-governor official is recalled, governor appoints replacement; if governor is recalled, Lt. Gov. becomes Gov.”. That would short-circuit the partisan motive that’s really driving this circus.
Brachiator
@owlbrick:
If we cannot turn out the vote, we should still consider which Republican we might be willing to tolerate.
That is the practical reality.
Scout211
@SiubhanDuinne:
https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate637302453.aspx
California is one of 37 states that the Governor appoints the replacement to complete the term. There are no party requirements.
Another Scott
Madam Speaker is tired of their games.
The vote apparently is tonight.
(Via nycsouthpaw)
Cheers,
Scott.
trollhattan
@Brachiator:
Personality of a soap dish would pretty much sum him up.
Versus Arnold.
Sigh.
WaterGirl
@Another Scott: I know what all those words mean, except for the gang, but I don’t understand what the hell that means.
namekarB
The recall law is in the California Constitution. It takes 2/3 the legislature -or- 8% of voters in previous election to put such a change on the ballot. High bar but possibly doable
JMG
According to Dave Weigel of the Post, of the ballots returned so far, the ones by registered Democrats are more than the total of independents and Republicans combined. So maybe Newsom’s team isn’t as asleep at the wheel as some think.
trollhattan
My CA assemblyman has the covid. And he’s vaccinated. Good guy.
HinTN
@Another Scott: Install DiFi’s replacement is the worst of all possible worlds.
Hob
My point of view is not really a helpful one, but I think it’s accurate: none of the strategies anyone here is proposing will make any difference. I’m saying that not to be defeatist, but to suggest that putting a lot of energy into this decision might not be the best use of our already strained brains.
The only D candidate within a mile of having a chance is Paffrath. But Paffrath is <em>incredibly bad</em>— not just the “doesn’t have experience” kind, but the “wants to cancel all COVID restrictions and also send out the National Guard to arrest homeless people” kind. He’s kind of the ultimate test of how firmly you believe in “any Democrat at all is better no matter what”, because he is actively in favor of Republican-style malice. Also, just going by my possibly unfair prejudice against financial hype artists on Youtube, I suspect he’d likely turn out to be very crooked and make Democrats look bad. At the very least he is an anti-tenant sleaze who advises landlords on how to lie.
So if I were going to try to persuade all my friends and neighbors to vote for Paffrath, I’d have to either be sneaky and hope that they don’t actually know anything about him, or appeal to the strength of their belief in “any Democrat at all is better no matter what” which I think realistically speaking is not nearly as strong in the general public as it is on the Internet.
But if I decide to push any other candidate, it’s just a basic collective action problem: without a real campaign, it’s incredibly unlikely that millions of Californians will all back the same horse. Every candidate is a spoiler for all the others. So basically such a vote is just a way of anonymously expressing an opinion; it won’t make Elder less likely to win.
In a way, this situation is almost as if the point of view of the Jill Stein crowd were actually true. When they pretended that Biden or Obama was just as bad as the Republicans, and that all that mattered was the personal perfection of the person at the top and not what the party could do, and that collective action wasn’t an issue because voting should just be about picking your absolute favorite… that was utter bullshit in the context of presidential elections, but it is almost true now. If Newsom loses, there is no good option and I’m not sure there even is a lesser-evil option who could possibly win.
Scout211
@JMG:
Now there’s some good news on a Monday afternoon. Thanks!
namekarB
Whoa there Hoss. Subject to confirmation by the legislature which is safely in the hands of Democrats
HeleninEire
@Baud: Me too. Oh hey HI! 2 1/2 more weeks till Dublin. I just got a pop-up from CNN telling me the CDC has issued more travel warnings. Yeah. Not clicking on that.
jl
The California recall law, along with the initiative and referendum systems are a mess. IIRC, they were designed 100 years ago by Hiram Johnson and his progressive allies to bust up Southern Pacific and other Gilded Age monopolies that were running the state like their private fiefdoms. So, great, they sort of worked, but that was then and this is now.
They are too easy to get off the ground, and the black letter law of them allows a lot of gaming the system by big money interests. I heard on the news that there have been several previous recall attempts on Newsom, but the first that made the ballot. The GOP started running recall petitions almost as soon as Newsom took office.
pacem appellant
CA Democrats: It doesn’t matter who you put on Q2. If Newsom is recalled, Elder is our next governor. That’s why the Newsom campaign is not muddying the waters with a “just in case” scenario. There is no backup plan. We have to keep Newsom in office or our children are going to die of Covid. This is life or death, and juck the rump CA GOP for once again using a Recall to try to get a governor because they know they can’t get in the front door ever again.
The Moar You Know
If he loses he can’t ever run for governor again. I don’t know if someone’s covered that in a previous post, but wanted to point it out. Weird quirk of the recall law.
ETA: a few people saying “Faulconer is not so bad”. Well, he won’t say Biden won the election. He’s just as bad as Elder.
MisterForkbeard
@namekarB: It’s not a high bar. We have a ludicrous amount of constitutional amendments here every major election.
Changing the recall vote is pretty doable. We also have the congressional vote (in theory).
Comrade Colette
@jl: Editorial in the SF Chronicle about this very thing – the dead hand of Republicans holding CA down.
Scout211
@namekarB:
Yes, you are correct.
And don’t call me
ShirleyHoss! ?WaterGirl
@The Moar You Know: I hadn’t seen that. Is that for sure?
debbie
@WaterGirl:
Seconded. Too much insiderism.
Hob
@MisterForkbeard: I think you’re bending over backward to give him the benefit of the doubt.
If you look at Paffrath’s campaign commercial on that subject, what he says is (after showing a Fox News clip about how outrageous it is that we’re seeing homeless people, and saying “Yeah! That’s right!”) that he’s going to deploy the National Guard in every city in CA where homeless people are, and for the first 30 days the Guard is going to just hang out there and give people food, and make them feel supported… and keep them from committing crimes. He hammers on the subject of how much homeless people are endangering everyone. And then he says that after 30 days they’ll start going to these new facilities, which the state will have built— somewhere— within 30 days. And that after 30 more days, there will be literally no homeless people on the streets, which will be great not only because he doesn’t want people to be hungry, but because he’s so concerned about tourists seeing bad things. He at no point acknowledges the possibility that people won’t want to go to the facilities, which pretty strongly suggests that either 1. he assumes it’s compulsory or 2. he’s a total idiot.
So, it’s technically true that he didn’t say he’s going to round people up. He just proposed a month-long military occupation of California cities—not to build shelters (he doesn’t say what agency is going to do that), but to enforce order during a “state of emergency” as if people in tents are the same thing as riots—with a promise to make all the scary dangerous people disappear within 60 days of him assuming office.
MisterForkbeard
@The Moar You Know: Faulconer is just straight awful. He made some performative noises about Trump early on and then folded like a Lindsay Graham. His entire campaign is him saying he’s a moderate to the press and to democrats while burnishing his conservative and trump support for Republicans.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Could the CA legislature impeach and remove a Republican governor if they fucked with COVID orders?
MisterForkbeard
@Hob: I think his plan won’t work, mostly because he can’t find/build facilities.
Basically, I think he’s trying to sound like he’ll do something about it and won’t do much else other than start construction on facilities and so on. He might not even get that much – I would be surprised if the Leg would fund it.
Basically: I don’t think he’s being gestapo or even particularly crazy, I think he’s trying to be noisy about a real problem and proposing a solution that won’t go anywhere. This applies to several of his other ideas – they’re unrealistic. In other places he’s a bog-standard Dem, though the one thing that really bugs me about him is that he says he wouldn’t push a state-wide mandate for vaccinations.
Still vastly preferable to any Republican and I’d vote for him in the 2nd question without any regrets.
FelonyGovt
My family and I left Question 2 blank. None of the choices are palatable. Some people were suggesting Kevin Faulconer as the “least objectionable Republican” but he is a Trump supporter and San Diego folks (where he was mayor) hate him.
I wrote some postcards today to Democratic voters encouraging them to vote no.
Teoconut
@TheOtherHank: Agreed. That leaves us with the celebrity youtuber Kevin Paffrath Democratic Financial Educator/Analyst. At least he might leave things in place and appoint actual D’s to open judgeships and Senate seats and the like…
But I still don’t like him… or any of the choices really. Can we hope that the CA Assembly and Senate can stall all appointments given their 2/3 majority?
Fair Economist
Paffrath is the only nonrepublican with nontrivial support. While a bad choice, he’s a lot better than Elder so I picked him. Important thing though, is to get your ballot in quickly. Vote NO and get it in.
The Moar You Know
@MisterForkbeard: I know. I’m a San Diego native.
VeniceRiley
@Another Scott: SacBee is a paper no one reads outside of Sacramento. He needs LA tv media and a ton of Gotv return your ballot or the 3% boogieman is coming to get you.
Hob
@MisterForkbeard:
If you did listen to his statements in the material I’m talking about, and that’s your interpretation… well, I’d like to think you’re right, but that is absolutely not the impression I got from them. Again, he was really hitting hard on the theme of how we need the Guard out there because the homeless people (who he feels sorry for because they’re hungry, but:) are attacking and killing citizens, and also scaring away tourists, so they’ve got to go. He described the role of the Guard as basically like the occupying forces in Afghanistan for the last 20 years: help people out so they’ll trust you, but above all, keep order. He was not saying that the Guard would be building shelters, he very specifically said they’d be out in force, keeping order (while also handing out food).
Puddinhead
@Chetan Murthy:
Couldn’t people just write in someone who would drive the MAGA horde crazy, like Hillary Clinton?
Roger Moore
@MisterForkbeard:
At the very least, the signature requirement to get the thing on the ballot should be much higher, at least 25% of the total vote in the election where they were chosen. The rule for finding a replacement should also change. I understand why they want to have the vote for the replacement on the same ballot, but it seems like a perfect case for a ranked choice vote.
Fair Economist
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The CA legislature could impeach for any reason it chose, and there is a Dem supermajority. I’d think eliminating mask mandates would be enough, but it’s a political decision on the part of swing district Dems.
Teoconut
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Here’s hoping a 2/3rd majority will be able to do something useful like that.
MisterForkbeard
@Hob: What I’m describing is the plan as described by his campaign and by abc news. Basically two step:
Havent watched your video. But I think it’ll fail at point one, because it’s expensive to do at scale and can’t be done quickly.
Scout211
@Puddinhead:
To count, write-in candidates must be registered.
https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/2021-ca-gov-recall/newsom-recall-faqs
FelonyGovt
@dmsilev: Yes. And I’ve met the Lt. Governor. She’s bright and personable and capable.
VFX Lurker
@Puddinhead:
Voters can only cast write-in votes for certified write-in candidates. I think any other write-in vote will get discarded.
The list of certified write-in candidates will be posted September 3rd, the day before in-person voting starts in Los Angeles County.
ETA: Scout211 beat me to it at #94. ?
Brachiator
@Comrade Colette:
Interesting op-ed piece.
But it is misleading to suggest that progressive Republicans of 1911 are the same as modern Reagan Republicans.
A new constitution would be great. Highly improbable that it could ever happen.
Roger Moore
@namekarB:
The bar to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot is lower than the bar to recall the governor. We definitely need to do it.
kindness
I googled which of the 40 something candidates were Democrats and then checked the one polling the highest. He’s a centrist so not Bernie level but then I held my nose and marked that spot. Took my ballet down to the outside ballot box they have outside the County Elections office Saturday.
California’s recall and our initiative process laws need updating to a percentage of the population to be good rather than the flat # of people they need to get it on the ballot now.
Fair Economist
@Roger Moore: The problem with even a ranked choice vote for a replacement is that the recall electorate can be very biased. No voting system can fix that. For Gov, the Lt Gov should step in. For other positions, I think you need a special election.
Hob
@MisterForkbeard: It also greatly creeps me out that in his big campaign launch video, he features Ben fucking Shapiro talking about what a disaster California is and how everyone with any sense will have to flee to save themselves, over images (also from Shapiro, I think) of various unidentified disaster scenes that are clearly meant to suggest the state is a lawless Mad Max hellhole, intercut with street scenes of largely Black homeless people. This is not in the context of Paffrath saying something like “Republicans are talking shit about California, let’s get together and show them we can face these problems”— he is very clearly presenting this as being the truth, from a reliable news source.
The most charitable interpretation I can possibly put on this is that he’s very lazy and doesn’t want to make any more video material than he has to, so if Fox maniacs have produced some “California has gone to shit” material for him, why not use it— plus maybe seeing Shapiro’s face will fool some wingnuts into voting for Paffrath. But… “when people tell you who they are, believe them” is often wise. A lot of what you’re saying, about how he’s just bullshitting and won’t get anything done, sounds an awful lot to me like the optimistic takes on Trump in 2016.
Teoconut
@Scout211: Phew! but, wait don’t those pesky R’s like to show up unmasked in person to cast their ballots? I’m not holding my breath…
Rick Taylor
I voted No on the recall, and Falconer to try to limit the damage should the recall pass.
Citizen Alan
@SiubhanDuinne:
I genuinely think that’s what’s really driving this whole thing. The Repukes are pushing this stupid recall because they see it as a Hail Mary chance to replace an elderly woman in physical and mental decline who was too egotistical to step aside and destroy Biden’s agenda.
VFX Lurker
I’m not taking anything for granted, myself, but Californians do love to vote absentee. Last year, 86.72% of Californians opted to vote by mail in the 2020 General Election. Before we locked down, 72.08% of Californians voted by mail in the March 3rd 2020 Primary.
Source: https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/historical-absentee
Another Scott
@WaterGirl: The 9/10 “moderates” in the House are demanding that Pelosi do her job differently regarding the bipartisan bill and the $3.5T reconciliation bill. She apparently told them to pound sand and be prepared to vote no. At least, that’s what those Twitterers are apparently saying
Warning Politico has more context.
C-Span says the House is in recess subject to the call of the chair in preparation for votes on the rules for the $3.5T reconciliation bill and a “voting rights bill”, so apparently the leadership is getting their ducks in a row.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
jl
@MisterForkbeard: Changing the CA constitution is doable if Democrats make a good case and put some effort into it. I remember reading that a large chunk of the state’s 100 plus page constitution is due to constitutional initiatives. Maybe changing the recall to to say that if the governor is recalled, the Lt Governor is installed. I think you can make a good case to the population that is better than allowing a unified but crazy 20 percent install some nutcase.
jl
@Comrade Colette: Thanks. I didn’t know recent GOP gubernators were strengthening the gubernator’s powers.
I think California used to be one of the most corrupt states in the country, from state government down to big cities. Now it is one of the cleaner states due to progressive reforms (the same ones that are causing problems now) San Francisco was hilariously and disgustingly corrupt back in the day, and looks like did same the same thing as the state to semi-fix the problem: bust up the government and put a lot of power in a maze of independent commissions. I don’t know about how powerful the mayor is though.
Darkrose
@trollhattan: Yikes! He’s my assemblyman too; I’ve been impressed by his police reform work. I also like his wife; she actually knocked on our door when she was running for school board.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Fair Economist:
@Teoconut:
Thanks guys
Hob
@MisterForkbeard: I am also very very very skeptical of the idea that he is in any way sincerely trying to address a housing problem, given that he was in the business of advising landlords that tenants are dimwits (otherwise they’d be homeowners!) who should be lied to. His spiel in that stuff, both what he’s literally saying and his entire demeanor, drips with contempt for anyone who’s not a homeowner. He creeps me the fuck out.
I’ll leave off on Paffrath now, I just wanted to bring these things up as reasons why I don’t share the “he wouldn’t be so bad / he’s just naive / means well” point of view on him.
Puddinhead
@Scout211: Damn. Governor Barbara Streisand then? You have until the end of the month to make it a possibility.
James E Powell
Arriving late to the discussion, I voted No and left #2 blank. The Paffrath guy actually sent me a text last week asking for my vote, so I thought about it for a minute, then just let it go.
I hope it’s not important.
I’m pretty fucking angry about the whole thing. If Newsom goes down and Elder wins, I want to start a recall Elder campaign the next day.
I am also starting to get irritated with Newsom for hitting me up for cash every day instead of campaigning hard. He doesn’t need money, he needs to be out in the public doing his job and asking for votes. He’s the fucking governor. Get out there and make news in the areas where millions of Democrats live
I bet if they did a poll and asked how many people even know there’s a recall election, we’d all be shocked & mortified at the results.
MisterForkbeard
@Hob: I think you’re missing two things:
1) Democrats aren’t authoritarian followers like Rs. We would never have lined up behind Trump. We wouldn’t let this guy go anything really stupid.
2) For all that he’s not close to ideal, he’s still WAY better than any Republican and also the most likely Dem to win. So he gets my vote and I hope he doesn’t use it. But in the general, I’d vote against him and salt the earth to keep him from the nomination.
But for now, he’s what we’ve got and much better than the alternative.
Mary G
i refuse to worry or get wound up about this. I voted No and Paffrath – he’s TFG version 2, but he actually has name recognition. I know Republicans holding their huge rallies for Elder look bad, but look, math from the Public Policy Institute before the 2020 election, bold mine:
Republicans couldn’t even hold 27%. Decline to state independent voters lean Democrat:
All this brouhaha is a distraction. Republicans lead in being able to produce a crowd of screaming loonies, the end. I’m seeing a lot of Newsom ads and he has $40 to spend.
grumbles
For #2 I put Lt. Governer Eleni Kounalakis, whom I believe legally should assume the Governorship if the Governor looses it.
SiubhanDuinne
@namekarB:
@Citizen Alan:
But if, as @namekarB says, the (Dem) lege has to confirm any appointment the (putatively GOP) governor makes, wouldn’t that be a good thing for our team? I mean, obviously the best outcome would be for the recall to fail, but absent that, wouldn’t we at least be safe from Republican predation if DiFi’s seat becomes vacant? Not clear on why the GOP would choose this as a campaign issue.
nevemoor
I voted Paffrath, for one simple reason: he’s the best polling Democrat, so thus most likely to minimize the harm of our state doing something stupid on question 1.
Mary G
@SiubhanDuinne: They are raising a shit ton of money from out of state, plus they’re Ahab obsessed with the great white whale.
Mary G
@Mary G: I made an error in the previous post – Gavin has $40 million, not $40.
WaterGirl
@Another Scott: Yeah, I had googled and found the politico article, but it still didn’t seem to spell anything out that clarified the tweet you posted. I still don’t see it, and it all appears to be just speculation.
I generally find tweets with no context annoying, and i am crabby this evening anyway, for no apparent reason, so it’s even worse than usual. Seems like a good night for me to close the laptop and go to bed early.
Ksmiami
@James E Powell: sent a message to governor gav on his site to campaign around the state and do ads and be visible
Scout211
@WaterGirl:
Before you go to bed. . . I wanted to thank you for putting this up for all the California peeps. ? It’s been good for us to share our frustrations and help each other understand this chaotic recall mess
Good night.?
HumboldtBlue
Vote no and mail it back in. You need do nothing more.
Scout211
Anyone in SoCal not get a ballot yet?
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/300-recall-ballots-drugs-multiple-drivers-licenses-found-in-vehicle-of-passed-out-felon-torrance-police/
FelonyGovt
@Scout211: My in-laws live in Torrance. They received their ballots (and have already voted no).
Reverse tool order
The ostensible reasons for this recall are vague horseshit, but it’s happening anyway. So we have to deal & deal with uncertainty. It would be great to amend the CA constitution to something sensible, but that is not happening now.
Chances of a successful recall are sadly high, so question of who replaces Newsom is important. Choices on offer are like a range from “get bone cancer” to “get a broken leg”. Well, shit; I don’t want any of them. Still leaning towards picking a sure loser just to dilute the net highest vote (probably for Elder), but not at all sure that’s a good idea.
Briefly looked at Paffrath as the leading Dem & second highest in polls. No thanks, & a dilettante kid won’t get anywhere anyway.
My wife is leaning towards leaving #2 blank. I don’t think that is best, but not sure of that either. It’s a mess.
For the Sonoma County folks, of course no on the richie revenge recall of the DA too. These people…
Citizen Alan
@SiubhanDuinne:
Consider: If Governor Elder just sends a succession of completely unpalatable RWNJ nominees, none of whom can get confirmed by the CA Senate, Fienstein’s vacant seat stays open and the Senate is 50-49 GOP.
KDL
I don’t understand the people who say leave it blank because the structure confused people last time. The people here are NOT confused – they know to vote “no” on number 1. There is no world in which leaving #2 blank and enabling the election of a Republican governor at this moment can be justified. Nor does it make sense to vote for a non-Elder Republican because he’s not as bad as Elder. An apolitical fool in the governor’s office is better than a Republican.
If you are not confused (which you aren’t if you’ve read this thread), vote “no” and then pick one of the Democrats.
craigie
@Dennis Brown:
Me too. And the rest of my family, so that’s 5 contingent votes for her!
PatrickG
The subject of Vote NO/Leave Blank being confusing has been well covered, but I’ll add my take anyway.
It’s really hard to overstate how much EVERYBODY hated Gray Davis back in the day.
[Warning: anecdata] I knew multiple people back in the day who enthusiastically voted to recall Davis, because it was “impossible” that a Republican could win the subsequent ballot. The most important thing was to send That Bastard a message. Bustamente was a shoe-in!
I have no real idea how many people voted that way in 2003. But margins matter, and I think the Democratic Party of California isn’t entirely wrong to urge rejecting the process entirely, if only to attempt to deny legitimacy to a replacement. We’ll see how it goes, I guess.
Steeplejack (phone)
@craigie:
I believe you wasted your votes, because she has to be registered (by August 31) to be eligible to receive write-in votes, and I don’t believe she has. Hopefully it won’t matter.
Sister Golden Bear
@MisterForkbeard:
Don’t know if it’s a viable option, but one good suggestion I heard was changing the law so that in the event of a recall, the lt. governor takes over.
Yes, there’s still a theoretical risk if there was split ticket gubernatorial race, but that and raising the number of signatures required to get a recall on the ballot (apparently has one of the lowest in the country) would put a stop to Republicans trying to do an end run around the actual will of the voters.
Edmund Dantes
@VeniceRiley: I am constantly running into ads on YouTube and social media for Newsom. I wish people would stop acting like he’s not it their doing ads. I also was getting text messages about it till I told them to stop and spend money elsewhere since I was already a No on recall.
Edmund Dantes
@way2blue: this is so stupid.
should we go out to eat tonight? Yes/No
if we decide to go out to eat, pick from this list of 20:
Eating at home is not on the second list as it was removed majority vote in the first question.
They are two separate questions. And perfectly constitutional.
Brachiator
@PatrickG:
Unfortunately, Bustamante was perceived to be a political hack with less talent, personality and charisma than the bland Davis.
William D
bit late to this thread but here goes
WaterGirl
Remember guys, this post is linked under Do Something! in the sidebar, so it’s accessible for reading and commenting long after this post is off the front page.
Brachiator
@WaterGirl:
Thank you. This is good to know. The California recall is still a hot topic.
Jinchi
I voted “No” on recall.
On question 2, I voted for Patrick Kilpatrick, because he was one of the few candidates who actually wrote a candidate statement, and his responses looked like those of a standard Democratic candidate.
There is no way I was going to vote for any Republican, or Libertarian.
Jinchi
Even though I fully support Newsom as governor, I’m extremely irritated at him and the Democratic party for their “Don’t vote on Question 2” strategy. Keeping the government out of Republican hands is more important than keeping Newsom in office.Your vote on Question 2 is more important than your vote on Question 1, because it’s much more likely to be a deciding factor.
The current message is “Don’t worry Newsom’s got this”, and if he doesn’t then “Don’t worry Larry Elder will lose in 2 years.”
That’s a muddled message.
There are no viable Democratic candidates because the party threatened anyone who dared put their name in as a placeholder. Because there is no-one to rally behind, Democratic voters have no real strength on Question 2. If Larry Elder is elected, it will be the fault of the Democratic party.
Republicans will have an incentive to troll every elected Democrat until the party figures out how to deal with the recall problem. Democrats should have put the Lt. Governor on Question 2 and run on a very strict message:
“No on recall. Kounalakis on Question 2. Keep Republicans out of the State House.”
km
***AAAAAAARRRGGGHHH**** What to do about question 2? Work more on getting people to vote No on question 1. Video from Jessica Craven
Some FAQ’s:
TWW/Indivisible-Los Gatos
Link to SOS recall FAQs: https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/2021-ca-gov-recall/newsom-recall-faqs
Northridge Indivisible
You would not believe how many questions on question 2 I have had to answer. Election officials sometimes giving wrong info too!
km
End of Jessica’s last name was cut off, it’s Craven, not Crave.
Sorry to be so late to comment. I’m spending most of my time contacting voters to get them to vote No… and I’m grumpy about election officials giving out misinfo because apparently they can’t read the CA Secretary of State’s recall FAQ.
WaterGirl
@km: I fixed Craven’s name.
edit: the extra steps we have to take to correct misinformation is so frustrating!
orsonk
Here’s my 30-second song about our recall. (I’m in Santa Rosa, sent in ballot weeks ago, got notified a few days ago it has been received.) For the record, I voted no and did not vote for ANY of the “candidates.” https://youtu.be/i-0iEWvvLhw
James E Powell
@Jinchi:
That exact strategy was cited as one of the reasons Grey Davis went down. If people are going to vote to remove a governor, they are not likely to pick his choice as a replacement.
Fuck this! is a clearer message.
Brachiator
For those who might be interested, an article on the nine Democratic recall candidates.
I am voting against recall. ALL of the high polling alternatives are terrible.
Some indication that Larry Elder is so unacceptable that he is causing Republicans to vote to keep Newsom. Elder is the choice of rightwing extremist nutcases and the angriest pro recall voters.
Brachiator
California Recall Write In Candidates
From SF Chronicle