Today’s suicide bombing in Kabul has been claimed by Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K).
ISIS in Khorasan, known as ISIS-K, claimed that an ISIS militant carried out the suicide attack, but provided no evidence to support the claim
President Biden confirmed this in his remarks earlier this afternoon.
At the remarks at the White House later in the day, the president said the bombings were the work of fighters from the ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan, known as ISIS Khorasan, or ISIS-K. The attacks marked one of the single deadliest days for U.S. forces in Afghanistan in the 20 years since the allied invasion.
President Biden also made it clear that the US will continue the Non-combatant Evacuation Operation (NEO) until it achieves the delineated objective of getting all the Americans who wish to get out of Afghanistan out of Afghanistan, as well as to get out as many of the Afghans who have assisted the US over the past twenty years and those whose work over the past twenty years might put them at risk as possible. President Biden also made it clear that the US would not forgive nor forget about today’s attack and that an appropriate response would be forthcoming.
The real outstanding concerns right now need to be the ability of spoilers, such as Islamic State in Khorasan (IS-K), which is a serious enemy of the Taliban, attacking Kabul airport to derail the NEO and cause problems for the Taliban as a result of the US responding to such an attack.
The window of opportunity for today’s attack has two roots. The first is that large numbers of Afghans are constantly approaching Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul attempting to get into the airport in order that the US can get them out. The second is that Islamic State Khorasan’s leadership, like that of Islamic State proper, the Taliban, al Qaeda, and all of our non-state and state adversaries actually watch our broadcast and cable news and read our newspapers. They’ve seen the slanted reporting in every major US newspaper and on every US news channel about what President Biden is or is not doing and should or should not be doing. They’ve seen every tweet and quote from every Republican elected official, think tank denizen, and pundit delineating everything the Biden administration is doing wrong and calling for more US military personnel to be sent to Afghanistan, an indefinite extension to the Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation, and in some cases a complete repudiation and abrogation of the deal the Trump administration negotiated with the Taliban. Today’s attack was directly intended to take advantage of both of these realities. The physical one – all the Afghans attempting to get to the airport in Kabul – and the informational/psychological ones resulting from the execrable and irresponsible news media reporting and the politicization of the withdrawal by both Republican officials and an entire ecosystem of people who have gained fame and fortune solely by commenting about the war.
IS-K is violently opposed to the Taliban. The reason for this is that the extreme, politicized version of Islam that the Taliban follow is rooted in Deobandi Islam with a much later added overlay of Saudi tawheed as a result of contact with the Saudi mujahideen who flocked to Afghanistan to fight the Soviets. Deobandism is an austere, anti-colonial focused version of Islam that originated in British controlled India in the late 1860s. The Saudi concept of tawheed, the radical unity of the Deity, is the central teaching and foundation of Adbul Wahhab’s theology that provided the doctrinal focus for ibn Saud’s conquest of the Arabian peninsula and formation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. For all that we see the Taliban as being extreme and unyielding, the Islamic State perceives them as not being pure enough in their understanding and application of tawheed.
In December 2015, in the wake of the Islamic State attack in St. Michael, France, I completed a strategic assessment of ISIS’s doctrine, its strategic objectives, and what the US needed to do to adapt its own strategies to counter the threat from ISIS. I had already been working on the research when the attack in St. Michael happened and the first draft of the assessment, if you will, was actually a post here. The formal assessment was prepared for the then Director of Force Protection at Headquarters Department of the Army. It was also briefed directly by me to the Commanding Generals of I Corps (in full) and XVIII Airborne Corps (as part of a larger strategic assessment for the Command Group, Senior Staff, and Multinational Coalition Senior Staff) between January and May 2016 and a copy was sent to the Commanding General of III Corps who was already deployed forward as the Commander of Combined Joint Task Force Inherent Resolve. Most of what follows is directly from that assessment.
The Islamic State, whether the original movement, the Islamic State in Iraq and al Shams (ISIS), or its offshoots like Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), is simply the most extreme, hardcore, politicized evolution of tawheed as an organizing doctrine and driver for violent extremist Islamic movements that we have yet see emerge. They are far more extreme than al Qaeda, who they are also in competition with and violently opposed to. For ISIS, IS-K, and the other IS offshoots, their doctrine is built around the teachings of Abdul Wahhab. Wahhab asserted that not only was the Deity one, which is not in and of itself a particularly radical idea in Islam, but that any innovation that took away from this glorious reality counted as shirk or polytheism. As a result he inveighed against the building of shrines and monuments, as well as the tradition of subordinate, intercessory prayers in addition to the mandated salat or Islamic understanding of prayer. Those who engage in such innovations are, at best, engaged in kufr and ridda – unbelief in the one G-d and apostasy. Moreover, Abdul Wahhab’s conceptualization of tawheed teaches that unbelief and apostasy must be stamped out, through violence if necessary. It also teaches that one can only be a real Muslim, a muwaheedun, if one lives where tawheed has been established as the rule for the ummah/community of the faithful. As Moussalli interestingly asserts*, the Wahhabi muwaheedun have been arguing for over 200 years that they are the true defenders of Sunni Islam, while at the same time being in direct and active opposition to 90% of Sunni Islam.
What makes this extreme understanding of tawheed, as the core doctrine, theology, and ideology of the Islamic State so dangerous is its unwillingness to tolerate non-muwaheedun Muslims and its ability to travel. Unlike bin Laden’s underlying doctrine for al Qaeda, which was partially rooted in bin Laden’s personal adherence to and understanding of tawheed as practiced in Saudi Arabia, the Islamic State’s application of tawheed and its theological component calls for targeting non- muwaheedun Muslims. While bin Laden did call for the removal, by violence if necessary, of the leaders of Muslims states and societies who were themselves unbelievers and/or apostates, he also made it clear that non-muwaheedun populations were off limits for targeting. The Islamic State makes no such distinction.
The second danger within the concept of extreme tawheed at the heart of the Islamic State doctrine is that it is capable of traveling throughout the Muslim world in a way that other forms of Islamic extremism are not. The popular conception of Wahhabiya or tawheed is that it is an offshoot of the Hanbali school of Islamic jurisprudence. However, as Commins describes, tawheed is not a concept of Islamic jurisprudence. Rather it is a doctrinal and theological system. As such it can travel throughout the Sunni Muslim world and subvert any of the four Sunni schools of Islamic Jurisprudence. Tawheed, precisely because it is doctrine and theology, but not jurisprudence and legal application, has the ability to take root throughout the Sunni Muslim world.
ISIS has two strategic objectives. The Islamic State, organized around the doctrine of tawheed, seeks to destroy the civil space, often referred to as the grey zone, in which Muslims live their day to day lives as the citizens and residents of Muslim and non-Muslim states and societies alike. This civic space, especially in Western liberal states and societies that allows people from different religious and ethnic background to have membership in the state and society despite not necessarily belonging to the majority ethnic or religious group. The concept of extreme tawheed obliterates this space. It tells Muslims, specifically Sunni Muslims, that they cannot separate their religious lives from their civic ones and promotes this idea to non-Muslims. Moreover, its focus on being unable to be a good Muslim, a muwaheedun, unless one lives where tawheed has been established as the governing concept reinforces the argument that proper Muslims must relocate to the Islamic State and its self declared caliphate. It is also the Islamic State’s argument for expanding the caliphate. Additionally, it supports the assertion that Muslim communities in the West cannot assimilate, are susceptible to ISIS’s information operations, and are a threat to the domestic security of the states in which they reside.
The application of extreme tawheed to destroy the grey zone also seeks to set Muslims against Muslims. One of the hallmarks of Sunni Islam is ijma. Ijma, or consensus, is the belief that each community of Muslims determines how to organize themselves as Muslims. It is very similar to the five point Calvinist inheritance of the Evangelical denominations that developed within the US that each congregation determines how to organize its religious life for worship and adherence to the Gospels. Applying tawheed to Sunni Muslim life destroys the localism that is its hallmark. Additionally, it seems to pit the adopters of extreme tawheed against their friends and families. Any Sunni Muslim who does not accept and practice this form of tawheed is engaged in kufr and ridda and their apostasy and unbelief/incorrect belief must be corrected or they must be eradicated. Concepts of inclusion, tolerance, and multi-culturalism are anathema as a result of this extreme understanding of tawheed and to the Islamic State.
The Islamic State’s internal, or near geographic goals, are to consolidate their control over the territory they currently control and establish their version of tawheed within it. They then seek to expand their geographic holdings – the self declared Islamic State and caliphate – and enforce tawheed wherever they expand. They also seek to expand their version of tawheed throughout the Sunni Muslim world by destroying the grey zone for Muslims that live in Western states, as well as for those living throughout the Islamic world outside of ISIS’s control.
ISIS’s external, or far geographic, goals are to engage the far enemy and destroy it. The far enemy, as was the case with bin Laden, is the US and its allies. The Islamic State, however, has introduced an apocalyptic twist. Graeme Wood, reporting in The Atlantic, indicates that a central portion of the Islamic State’s theology is a belief in the Dabiq Prophecy. The Dabiq Prophecy is an apocalyptic prophecy found in Kitab Al-Fitan wa Ashrat As- Sa`ah/The Book Pertaining to the Turmoil and Portents of the Last Hour. The Dabiq Prophecy is specifically found in Chapter 9: Pertaining to the Conquest of Constantinople and the Appearance of the Dajjal and Descent of Jesus Son of Mary (Jesus Christ). These sections follow on from earlier hadith that retell more familiar end times prophecy, such as of Gog and Magog. The Islamic State’s leaders seem to equate the US with the antagonist described in the prophecy and place the location of the final battle in Dabiq, Syria.
The Islamic State does not have the ways and means to fully achieve their ends unless they can get the US and its allies and partners to provide the ways and means for them. ISIS cannot make Muslim citizens or residents of the US, France, or other EU states feel unwelcome. Only the citizens of the US, France, other EU states, and other states can do so. Moreover, the Islamic State cannot make the US, its allies, and its partners commit to a significant enough application of Landpower to allow them to claim that the Dabiq Prophecy is actually coming to pass.
The ways and means that the Islamic State does have at its disposal are to entice the US, its partners, and its allies into providing the ways and means to ISIS’s ends of destroying the grey zone, convincing Muslim citizens and residents of the US and other states that they are unwanted so that they relocate or undertake terrorist acts where they live, and to draw the US into a significant ground war in locations of ISIS’s choosing. Originally this was Syria because of the Dabiq Prophecy, but in the case of IS-K, it is Afghanistan. Engaging in terrorism as Psychological Operations is the Islamic State’s principal way of achieving the end of getting the US to provide it with the ways and means it does not have.
Psychological Operations are defined as: planned operations to convey selected information and indicators to foreign audiences to influence their emotions, motives, objective reasoning, and ultimately the behavior of foreign governments, organizations, groups, and individuals. The purpose of Psychological Operations is to induce or reinforce foreign attitudes and behavior favorable to the originator’s objectives.
The Islamic State has developed an extensive and highly professional Information Operations and Psychological Operations capability. Part of this was no doubt learned from the former Ba’athist Iraqi Sunni military and intelligence personnel who aligned themselves with the Islamic State as part of the ongoing Iraqi sectarian conflict. This could be clearly seen in the immediate aftermath of the Paris attacks in suburban St. Michael, France in 2015. Within ten days the History Channel cable network was airing a documentary dealing with the Islamic State and the Paris attacks that included footage from embedded personnel reporting from within the portions of Syria and Iraq controlled by the Islamic State. The documentary included footage of fully stocked markets, police in uniform with clearly identified Islamic State markings, and people going about their daily lives. Exposing anyone in the US to these images would have been impossible without the attacks in Paris.
Today’s attacks seek to advance Islamic State Khorasan’s goals against both their near (the Taliban) and far enemies (the US). By successfully attacking Afghans attempting to reach and get into Hamid Karzai International airport (HKIA) and the US Marines conducting the security operation on site, IS-K makes the Taliban look weak and ineffectual. It both challenges the Taliban’s legitimacy in regard to governing Afghanistan and attacks their honor by making them look ineffectual in providing security. IS-K also seeks to draw the US back in to Afghanistan to prolong the conflict as part of engaging the far enemy/the US. The purpose here is to increase political pressure on President Biden to surge more US military personnel into Kabul in order to reinforce and extend the US’s security footprint. This would both abrogate the Biden administration’s adherence to the Trump administration negotiated withdrawal, putting the US and the Taliban back into conflict, while increasing the number of American targets for IS-K to attack.
Part of the reason IS-K undertook this attack is because like ISIS, like al Qaeda, the Taliban, and other extremist Islamic movements, they read and watch the American news. They’ve seen the reporting bias about what the Biden administration is doing. They’ve seen the calls by reporters, pundits, the think tank denizens, former Trump administration officials, and Republican members of Congress for the Biden administration to send more military personnel back in, to retake Bagram and move operations there (this would be strategically irresponsible and tactically stupid!), and to create an open ended commitment to stay until every single US citizen and Afghan who wants to leave is out.
The leaders of Islamic State-Khorasan saw an opportunity to undertake a low risk to themselves – two suicide bombers – high reward operation to leverage the current information environment in the US to increase the pressure on the Biden administration. I expect there will be further attacks to both further capitalize on the news media and political feeding frenzy in the US right now in order to try to force the Biden administration to giving IS-K what it wants: more American military boots on the ground to both attack and to also become targets for the Taliban. I do not think this is going to work. I think that IS-K, like the American news media and Republican members of Congress, as well as other Republicans with presidential ambitions, have seriously misjudged President Biden. He is not going to budge. He will order and authorize exactly what he feels is necessary to complete the Non-combatant Evacuation Operation and when he has decided that this strategic objective has been met, he will end it. That may be on schedule for 31 August. It may be a week later. But it is not going to entail a surge of American military personnel to expand the operation. Finally, I do expect that US Special Operations Command has already been tasked with undertaking a focused, targeted mission against IS-K as an appropriate response to their attacks today.
Open thread!
* Ahmad Moussalli, Wahhabism, Salafism, and Islamism: Who is the Enemy, A Conflicts Forum Monograph, Spring 2015
Baud
Sure. ISIS doesn’t give franchises to any old group of terrorists.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: Also, the soft serve machine never works.//
Major Major Major Major
Question I’ve been wanting to ask you, Adam. I’d been under the impression that “ISIS” had been ground into dust, but that’s obviously not how anybody is talking about it nowadays. I get that the caliphate is a free-floating idea, but… I guess I’m wondering if you know why I might have had this impression or if maybe this is just a problem with terms or something? Sorry if that’s too much mind reading.
cain
This is a great and informative post. I have nothing to add other than – JFC.
Baud
Is there any indication of a delay?
JPL
@Adam L Silverman: What happens after the 31st? Does ISIS attack the Taliban and try to take control of the country?
btw Wolf Blitzer let Rep Mast smear Biden without any pushback. It was sickening. Mast also doesn’t believe Biden won in the first place.
JPL
@Adam L Silverman: Another question for you.. What is the purpose of a controlled blast?
WaterGirl
@Baud: Biden said today that the Generals believe that sticking to the Aug 31 date gives the best chance of Taliban continuing to cooperate as we try to get other US citizens and Afghans out of Afghanistan AFTER Aug 31.
Omnes Omnibus
Right now the US and the Taliban have one strong mutual interest. That is having the withdrawal go as smoothly as possible. Anyone working against that is actively working against the interests of at least one of those entities.
The forever war advocates are not going to get their way, so they need to accept it and make the best of it. The GOP opportunists who are trying to make hay should be recognized as what they are. The soldiers who are grieving over lost comrades, etc., need to be given room to grieve, but no veto over what needs to be done.
SiubhanDuinne
@JPL:
I just saw that clip. It was disgusting — both what Mast said and the way Blitzer just sat there allowing it.
Roger Moore
@Omnes Omnibus:
The scary thing to realize is that the forever war people are currently on the same side as IS-K.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes to all of what you said.
Omnes Omnibus
@JPL: It sets off an explosive device in a way that minimizes damage. It be as simple as put sandbags around a bomb that can’t be safe defused and then blowing it up.
WaterGirl
Do we know what congress critters were on the plane that was turned away at the airport today?
Rob
@cain: Me too. I have sent this post to a friend who is interested. Thank you, Adam.
Omnes Omnibus
@Roger Moore: Yes.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: Because the news media credulously reported, as a result of the Trump administration asserting it, that the US had completely and totally defeated ISIS. The reality is that the US and our Coalition allies, working by, with, and through the Iraqi Security Forces and irregular Iraqi forces, had destroyed the physical caliphate. That isn’t a defeat of ISIS as ISIS, rather it is the return of ISIS to an irregular force without a permanent geographic area of control. As a result, ISIS just went back to what it was doing prior to 2016. It also started branching out to other places, like Afghanistan.
Adam L Silverman
@cain: Thanks for the kind words.
debbie
@cain:
Seconded. I shake my fist at whoever invented religion. It’s killing us all.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: I’ve seen reporting of UN negotiations with the Taliban to put in a UN force to establish a humanitarian corridor to get people who want to or need to leave Afghanistan safely to the airport. And Biden’s people have made clear that while we will withdraw by 31 August, it does not mean that we will stop bringing people out who want/need to get out. So the withdrawal may be complete as a US operation, but it may shift to the UN allowing the US to still fly into and out of Kabul to bring people out.
Additionally, I’m sure part of the discussion right now with the Taliban is about them not interfering in US operations to go after IS-K in the wake of today’s attacks.
Adam L Silverman
@JPL: Mast was a buck sergeant. He has no understanding of strategy, policy, or strategic complexity. He does understand how to undertake tactical explosive ordnance defeat operations.
Adam L Silverman
@JPL: I’m not sure I understand the question.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Now I’m tracking on JPL’s question. Thanks for answering it.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: Not a problem.
JPL
@Adam L Silverman: It had to do with the on going explosions in Kabul today. I assume most were not bombs.
Adam L Silverman
@JPL: Gotcha. I’m now tracking, but I think OO has answered your question.
Omnes Omnibus
@Omnes Omnibus: … It can be…. [insert where required]
SiubhanDuinne
@WaterGirl:
I would also love to know the answer to that question.
CCL
Thank you, Adam.
Steeplejack
I wonder if at some point all of these tendrils of radical Islamic terrorism are going to have to be traced back to the root in Saudi Arabia and dealt with there.
From the original post, it doesn’t seem that Saudi Arabia itself has an “IS-K compliant” community, or ummah. Is that true? And, if it is, how do the concerned parties deal with the contradiction? My very uninformed understanding is that the secular rulers of Saudi Arabia throw money at the religious radicals to keep them appeased and in line while maintaining an iron grip on society. Are they funding their own eventual demise?
JPL
@SiubhanDuinne: We can assume that it wasn’t Matt and Marjorie because it wasn’t a paid gig.
Hob
Adam: This is informative, but I’m having trouble following one part of the post. That is, you write “IS-K is violently opposed to the Taliban. The reason for this is that the extreme, politicized version of Islam that the Taliban follow is rooted in Deobandi Islam with a much later added overlay of Saudi tawheed”… and then that’s followed by a lengthy discussion of IS-K’s devotion to tawheed, with no further explanation of why that would make them be violently opposed to the Taliban, since the Taliban seem to espouse similar principles such as wanting to get rid of shrines and monuments and persecuting non-Muslims. Is your point that they think the Taliban’s version of tawheed isn’t pure enough, or am I missing something else?
Mj_Oregon
I read somewhere today that the ongoing explosions heard in Kabul today were controlled demolition of equipment. That said, I so appreciate your posts on situations like these, Adam. They are one of the top reasons why I continue to (mostly) lurk on this blog. I know I can find good information here on foreign/domestic situations as well as balm for the soul in the garden and photography posts. And Betty Cracker makes me laugh, as does John on occasion. Thank you all, and today thank you, Adam, for broadening my meagre knowledge of the current situation.
Major Major Major Major
@Adam L Silverman: thanks!
schrodingers_cat
deleted
JPL
@Mj_Oregon: Thanks I had not seen that it was demolition of equipment.
WaterGirl
@Mj_Oregon: Someone asked Jen Psaki about that in the press briefing today, and while she declined to answer it directly, I was left with the impression that it was likely.
schrodingers_cat
@Steeplejack: Both the Deoband (philosophy that animates the Taliban) and Hindutva ideology in India grew in the late 19th and early 20th centuries as a response to British colonialism in the subcontinent.
Talib == Student
Talim == Practice (In Hindi, Urdu, Marathi and probably other Indian languages I don’t know)
Ideologues want to go back to time that never was, the supposed originalist version of their respective faiths. In the US the constitutional originalists are chasing the same chimera.
Jeffro
Here’s what I know: these fucking Republican scumbags did NOT call for St. Ronnie to resign following the loss of 220 Marines in a 1983 terrorist attack, and they most certainly did NOT call for Bush Jr to resign following the loss of 2,996 Americans in a 2001 terrorist attack, so: FUCK THEM and this bullshit “blood on his hands” nonsense.
I am seriously fed. up. with these lying hypocrites. Josh Hawley had a tweet up this spring banging on Joe Biden to uphold trumpov’s plan and get those troops out; he had one up today banging on Joe Biden (as if Joe had detonated the bomb himself) and calling on him to resign. Insurrection-loving, Nazi-fist-pumping Josh Hawley!
Republicans, y’all need to understand: you are NOT the only people who get angry in this country.
WaterGirl
@JPL: They will not say that directly because it would be foolish to do so. So it’s a very plausible guess, but I am confident that we won’t know for sure until we are out of the country.
Until then, everything is speculation.
Adam L Silverman
@Steeplejack: It does not. For all that we see Saudi as the paragon of extremist, politicized Islam, the truth is that it has actually seeded even more extreme versions in al Qaeda and ISIS. Largely through heavily funding missionary programs. One of the ironies here is that both AQ and ISIS see the Saudi monarchy and religious authorities as being illegitimate because they are not rigorous enough in their understanding and practice of tawheed.
Wvng
Adams, thank you for this. It explains much.
Adam L Silverman
@Hob: Because the Taliban are not as “pure” in their understanding and practice of tawheed. Just as al Qaeda is not. Just as the Saudis are not.
Cermet
The longer we stay, the more we are a soft target- glad Biden has a hard exit date. Can’t come soon enough. Those amerikans still there certainly knew delaying was dangerous but most did anyway. As the country side fell, they had a few days to get the hell out of there and chose to wait longer. Not a good idea. Still, there will be commercial flights out of Kabul soon enough and they can then fly out – the taiiban will have better control of the airport approaches and the mass of people will not be there then.
Still wondering what Adam thinks of the Director of the CIA (!) actually going to Kabul and meeting in Taliban controlled territory for a meeting – but what do you think went down?
Baud
@Adam L Silverman:
I hate purity trolls.
oldster
@Adam L Silverman:
“The reality is that the US… destroyed the physical caliphate. That isn’t a defeat of ISIS as ISIS…”
Right; from what I understand (perhaps from you among others), holding physical territory was a kind of trap for ISIS. It forced them to stand and fight, and allowed us to obliterate them in something closer to conventional warfare. We’re very good at conventional warfare.
Without a fixed address, they can go back to irregular warfare. Yes, the dream of a Caliphate is put on hold. But they are harder to pin down, and more resilient for that reason.
Adam L Silverman
@Hob: I’ve added this sentence to the end of that paragraph to, hopefully, make things clearer:
Adam L Silverman
@oldster: Exactly.
Steeplejack
@schrodingers_cat:
Thanks, I get that. I was wondering about IS-K’s possible connections to or influences from Wahhabism.
Urza
@Adam L Silverman: I wish your posts were required reading for all Americans. Or at least mandatory to be understood by the nations leaders. So much detail and understanding of issues that most people don’t even know exist.
Adam L Silverman
@Steeplejack: IS-K is a direct theological/doctrinal descendant of Wahhabism, which is formally referred to as tawheed. At this point it is the most extreme version/variant of Wahhabism.
Adam L Silverman
@Urza: Thanks for the kind words.
SiubhanDuinne
@JPL:
Hahaha!
schrodingers_cat
@Steeplejack: IDK. Islam in the subcontinent including Afghanistan was traditionally not heavily influenced by Arabs. Lots of Turkic (from Central Asia) and Persian influences
ISIS-K seems to be imported.
oldster
But I still don’t understand the role of Japanese horseradish in all of this.
Isis thinks that the Saudi wasabi is too mild? Maybe if they prepared it fresh?
Hob
@Adam L Silverman: Got it, thanks.
Omnes Omnibus
@oldster: I don’t think it travels well.
Geminid
@Adam L Silverman: Do you think that ISIS-K appeals to many Afghan people?
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat: It is imported.
Steeplejack
@Adam L Silverman:
Thanks.
Adam L Silverman
@Geminid: I don’t now. My semi-informed guess is it appeals to the younger, less patient al Qaeda types.
Adam L Silverman
@Steeplejack: De nada.
Cermet
As someone that has been involved in high levels in areas of intelligence, I’d think you’d be curious and maybe have some speculation on the CIA director’s meeting? No?
schrodingers_cat
@Geminid: I doubt it but IDK. Pathans are fiercely independent, the Pathans in NWFP (Pakistan’s side of the Durand line) didn’t want to become a part of Pakistan when the British left India.
BTW I recently learned that 5% of the total Muslim population decided the plebiscite that determined the fate of the British India.
The franchise was not universal, upper caste and well to do Muslims determined the fate of the subcontinent’s Muslims. Divided the sizable Muslim demographic into 3 states.
schrodingers_cat
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks for the confirmation.
bluehill
Seems like the U.S. has been a useful idiot for the various actors in the Middle East at one time or another. This just strengthens the case to withdraw our troops, although I’m happy to let Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton led a team of Proud Boys to prove me wrong.
Urza
@Adam L Silverman: Is there no program in our, or other, governments to find a way to get each extremist faction fighting each other instead of us? Its a full on No True Scotsman fallacy among them. Given a lack of outside enemies like liberals and foreigners I expect our christian extremists would fall into the same trap.
Adam L Silverman
@Cermet: I am.
Argiope
@Baud: Splitters!
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat: You’re welcome.
Did you get the email I sent you a week or so back?
BeautifulPlumage
As usual, Adam provides the thorough, nuanced information. I appreciate you sticking around to answer questions, as this also adds to my understanding.
OT: I’m enjoying the random images in the pie filter. Thanks to the creaters.
Adam L Silverman
@Urza: Our programs to do such things are woefully under resourced. Largely because they don’t require a lot of money being spent in multiple congressional districts.
lurker
have not had time to read the post yet, but this post has all the hallmarks of a fraud – someone penetrated Adam’s op sec and posted this in his stead.
I mean … the ALL CAPS are missing completely … there’s a page break on the front page … this is not Adam!
; – )
hoping to actually read it at some point, but it’s been a bit of a day…
Adam L Silverman
@BeautifulPlumage: You’re quite welcome. Though I’m going to have to go eat something in a bit.
Haroldo
@Adam L Silverman:
As always, thanks for the anaysis.
Adam L Silverman
@lurker: Very funny.
Adam L Silverman
@Haroldo: You’re quite welcome.
Urban Suburbanite
@Adam L Silverman:
If Biden doesn’t go along with the ISIS-K goal of providing more Americans to shoot at/bomb, where does that leave them? Do they start launching attacks directly against the Taliban, try to create yet another caliphate in Afghanistan, or just blow shit up to dial up the chaos?
lurker
@Adam L Silverman: saw the page break and had to go back and check who the author was. almost skipped the comment, ‘cuz the page break is something to be encouraged. My sense is that you use all caps appropriately. not really convinced someone stole your login credentials.
would like to read the post sometime before I need to get some sleep..thanks for posting it…
Mallard Filmore
@Cermet:
The evacuation is going very smoothly … too smoothly. What are the odds that Biden had already negotiated a lot of the withdrawal cooperation? Maybe this current meeting is an offer to cooperate in a drone strike or two.
Jackie
Adam, thank you! You explained and answered a lot of questions I kept waiting for the media to explain! You are so appreciated!
Roger Moore
@schrodingers_cat:
This is an excellent analogy. I think all of them are basing their beliefs not just on an idealized past that never was but also on a grossly oversimplified understanding of their respective faiths. They don’t want to deal with the world in all its complexity, so part of their idealization of the past is an assumption that everyone back then agreed and understood things in the same way.
I understand this best in terms of the “constitutional originalists”, but I assume similar things are true of the other faiths. You can see this oversimplification with the way they talk about what “the founding fathers” or “the framers of the constitution” intended. This ignores that those groups were not at all of one mind! They don’t want to engage with that because it undermines the whole project; you can’t depend on original intent if not all the writers intended the same thing.
I honestly think this is part of the reason “originalism” has mutated from “original intent” into “original public meaning”. Original intent is meaningful as a concept only if that original intent was singular. If the framers disagreed on the intent, it just gets you back into the same morass of picking which intent you’re going to listen to.
Adam L Silverman
@Cermet: @Mallard Filmore: My guess is the meeting agenda was a combination of 1) we know what you’re planning, so don’t and 2) and here are our concerns about IS-K, which should be your concerns, so maybe focus your attention there.
Cermet
@Mallard Filmore: Possibly but who knows. One of those mysteries that will remain for many years. I’ve speculated enough.
topclimber
@Jeffro: What is the point of Biden resigning if he was never elected President?
Adam L Silverman
@Urban Suburbanite: Yes, they will continue to launch attacks directly against the Taliban. I’d also expect them to try to hit the US again before we complete the withdrawal.
OGLiberal
@Adam L Silverman: I’m going to simplify my questions because after 10 years after reading all about this stuff and 10-years trying to ignore as best I could has made me tired:
1. Should the Taliban be the folks we deal with at this point re: the entire nation of Afghanistan?
2. Can we rely on them – for now, at least – to help get our folks out? (If they want to get out)
3. Is ISiS-K a threat to our national security?
4. Is the Taliban ever going to ally with ISIS-K and/or knowingly and willingly harbor terrorist groups, as they did in the past?
5. Does the Taliban really care about effing with us once we leave?
Adam L Silverman
@Jackie: You’re quite welcome.
Cermet
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks’ for the possible reasons.
Omnes Omnibus
This is always the difficulty with any form of legislative intent analysis.
Adam L Silverman
@OGLiberal: In order:
1. Should the Taliban be the folks we deal with at this point re: the entire nation of Afghanistan?
Until a new government is formed, yes and no. We should deal with them when and because we have to. We should also deal with the resistance in the Panshjir.
2. Can we rely on them – for now, at least – to help get our folks out? (If they want to get out)
It is in the Taliban’s interest for us to get everyone who wants to get out and we need to get out as quickly and efficiently as possible so they can get about doing whatever they are going to do.
3. Is ISiS-K a threat to our national security?
Yes, but like ISIS overall, al Qaeda, and all these other groups, they are not existential threats. Our problem for the past 20 years has been treating them as if they are.
4. Is the Taliban ever going to ally with ISIS-K and/or knowingly and willingly harbor terrorist groups, as they did in the past?
They will not likely ally with IS-K because IS-K sees them as backsliders and apostates that either have to embrace IS-K’s understand of Islam or be killed. It is possible that the Taliban will harbor terrorists groups in the future.
5. Does the Taliban really care about effing with us once we leave? No, not really. They want to control and rule as much of Afghanistan as they can take and hold.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Thank you, Adam. Informative and insightful, as usual.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Urban Suburbanite:
@Adam L Silverman:
To add to this, will the IS-K and the Taliban also cause headaches for Russia and China, given Afghanistan is in their proximity?
MagdaInBlack
@Adam L Silverman: #5 is what one thing I’ve been wondering. Your answer is what I’ve been suspecting.
As always, thank you for this post.
OGLiberal
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you! Very informative.
Roger Moore
@oldster:
I wonder how much that hurts their appeal, though. It’s one thing to say you’re fighting to create the ideal Islamic State. It’s quite another to say you’ve founded it in a specific place that can serve as a destination for people who want to live a truly Islamic life. I can certainly see how the second would be a lot more attractive to recruits.
topclimber
@oldster: I believe it was the combo of US Air Power with Kurds and Iranians on the ground that mostly got ISIS mostly out of Syria.
TFG cold-cocked the Kurds, then killed the top Iranian general in the campaign. But we will always have airpower– which is great except it hasn’t worked by itself since the famous and ineffective Flying Tigers in WWII China.
Tazj
Thanks for the post Adam. I always appreciate your expertise.
MagdaInBlack
@Roger Moore: It seems to me their Caliphate is a state of mind, that they carry within where ever they are, and I can see how that would be a source of strength: knowing that no matter where you are, you are within the Caliphate.
Adam?
( religious belief systems fascinate me)
Roger Moore
@Omnes Omnibus:
I assume this is why judges are supposed to rely on the text of the statute whenever possible and dig into legislative intent only when the text is manifestly unclear. It’s also why many statutes are much, much longer than the constitution; they want to spell everything out in obsessive detail precisely so judges have the easiest possible time understanding exactly what the statute is supposed to mean.
David Fud
Very informative post, thanks for grounding my thinking on this topic.
I really hate our 4th estate, which exists as the house in a betting pool overlooking a dog-fighting ring, i.e., they are just taking their cut of the bets in a blood sport. The press really struggles with anything constructive, since they are just rooting for the dogs (i.e., both sides are just as bad) to tear each other apart. Which dog wins doesn’t matter much.
The Biden coverage re: Afghanistan makes it very clear that it is all spectacle, to drive $$.
Urban Suburbanite
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
From what I’ve read, Putin’s courtiers have made a lot of noise about American weakness (because that’s their purpose), but the regime has shifted from courting the Taliban to evacuating Russian nationals and moving tanks into Tajikistan (I believe). I’m not sure about China – I think Xi has hopes of a pipeline, but that’s a long shot even without the heavily armed fundamentalists controlling the drug trade and sort of forming a government.
Kattails
@Adam L Silverman: and, you know, “we have some $$ that you might find awfully useful over the next couple of years, shame if you couldn’t access it, huh?”. Followed by Jack Nicholson grin.
Cowboy Diva
With the jockeying for power among the fundamentalist Sunni sects, Shi’ism is what? the stepchild bullied and/or ignored in the apparent ongoing effort by said Sunni sects to antagonize the truly clueless majority cultures in other parts of the world?
Chief Oshkosh
@Adam L Silverman: Splitters
ETA: I see now that I’m not the first to make this lame joke. Oh well.
ETA2: And thanks for detailed explanation and especially thanks for writing such that I can understand it after a 14h day and a couple of beers. :)
zhena gogolia
Adam, thank you so much for this. Again I wish you were the biggest talking head on TV.
OT, I’m enjoying The Hobbit so far.
CheezWhiz
This gets to the core of why the concept of a Global War On Terror was a mind-bogglingly stupid idea. You don’t “defeat” an idea, you kill a bunch of available advocates and create new converts.
munira
Thank you, Adam. It’s good to know there’s a place we can go to for intelligent analysis of this situation.
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Possibly.
Adam L Silverman
@OGLiberal: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@MagdaInBlack:
Adam L Silverman
@Kattails: Exactly. Though it is “we have your dollars frozen at the Federal Reserve of New York…”
Adam L Silverman
@Cowboy Diva: No. The violent, extremist politicized Sunni movements all agree on one thing: the Shi’a are the enemy. Just plain old Saudi tawheed (Wahhabism/Wahhabiya) makes it clear that the Shi’a are satanic and to be put to death wherever they are found. Al Qaeda and ISIS are even more emphatic about it.
Mary G
Another thank you from me. It’s a shame that one of the norms TFG and his party broke is the “politics stops at the water’s edge.” I’m sure that ISIS-K leadership is full of glee at all the Republican demands that POTUS resign or be kicked out of office, and people like me who got sucked into blasting Bush the Lesser and TFG for creating the holy mess we find ourselves in instead of presenting a united front against these evil religious fanatics.
FIFY.
Adam L Silverman
@Chief Oshkosh: You’re welcome.
prostratedragon
@Jeffro: Republicans, y’all need to understand: you are NOT the only people who get angry in this country.
Recognizing a slow burn is a life skill that many don’t seem to have.
Thanks, Adam, for the informative post. Unfortunately, it’s likely to become a handy bookmark.
Omnes Omnibus
@Roger Moore: Basically. But then there is a shitload of vase law interpreting the statutes and applying them to situation that the drafters never thought about. And then finding that they conflict with other statutes. And there are Attorney General Opinions….
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: You’re welcome.
And good. As I said when you asked, if you don’t expect a 1 to 1 retelling of the book and recognize that 1) the studio demanded it be expanded to be a trilogy like the LoR movies and 2) Jackson had always planned to pad the story from the book a bit to use it to set up his LoR trilogy knowing that once it was released, in the future everyone would watch The Hobbit movies first and then the LoR movies, then it is enjoyable for what it is.
Adam L Silverman
@munira: Please let us all know where that place is?//
guachi
This is the kind of stuff I do for a living, just at the lower level and feeding information upward. It’s nice to see someone who can synthesize the information in a way that I can’t do and present it.
Much appreciated.
munira
@Adam L Silverman: Ha – it’s you on good old Balloon Juice.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Roger Moore:
Out of curiosity, and anybody can answer, but have SCOTUS justices ever responded to criticisms of their rulings? “Originalism” is very stupid
@Urban Suburbanite:
Thanks. It will be interesting to see in the coming years whether Russia and/or China make the same mistakes the US made in the Middle East. Sadly for the Afghan people, peace isn’t likely coming any time soon
Adam L Silverman
@munira: So an amusing story about the name Munira. I had a classmate at Emory – this will only be amusing provided you aren’t my former classmate – named Munira. She had three or four sisters. Also, all named Munira. When one of us asked her why she explained that in the tradition of Sevener Shi’a Islam practiced by her family where they lived in Pakistan before moving to the US, the tradition was the village elder picked the names. When she, the eldest sister, was born and presented for naming, he liked the name Munira, especially in regard to the family’s last name. This elder was also VERY old! So when her first sister was born and presented he chose Munira because he liked the name in regard to the family’s last name. Repeat one or two more times. The result was they were all officially Munira, but she was the Munira and the others all used different first names.
And if you are the Munira I went to Emory with, you never call, you never write…
Adam L Silverman
@Mary G: Thank you for that necessary revision.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: They are, objectively and subjectively, horrible. The Hobbit was a happy little adventure story, and Jackson made it a sprawling mess.
Adam L Silverman
@guachi: Feel free to have someone where you’re at call. I’ll make sure to give them the friends and family contract rate!
Adam L Silverman
@munira:
Ksmiami
@Mallard Filmore: That’s my thought – the Taliban will gladly accept our help target bombing ISIS competitors.
Cowboy Diva
@Adam L Silverman: thank you for the follow up
munira
@Adam L Silverman: Alas, I am not the Munira you went to school with. For me, it’s my Sufi name (only one of the various spiritual paths I’ve investigated). I don’t know why that other Munira never writes. Sad
Just saw your other reply and I’m laughing now.
Ken
@Adam L Silverman: When I was young, I didn’t appreciate how good a comedian Ted Cassidy was in the Addams Family, even working within the limitations of the Lurch character.
Ken
Excellent. That gives us an excuse to keep troops in Afghanistan, so the press will be happy, the Republicans will be happy, and the Taliban will be happy. Really the only people who might be unhappy are the troops. And maybe people who think the political equivalent of sticking your dick in a blender is stupid.
Roger Moore
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Originalism is a fraud. It’s a cover story for making blatantly politicized rulings. It also gets thrown out the window whenever the people supporting it can’t twist original intent far enough to suit their purposes.
artem1s
@Steeplejack:
Isn’t this also true of the GOP? Haven’t they been throwing money at christian nationalists, white supremacists and evangelical radicals to keep them appeased and in line in order to maintain an iron grip on a huge voting block? Has the GOP been funding their own eventual demise? Starting to look like they have lost control of the flow of campaign money and to whom. The rhetoric has been ramping up to displays of violence for a few decades now. They have had their own versions of suicide bombers (NRA, mass murderer shooters, McVeigh, etc) who increase radicalization in the ranks but cause minimal damage to the power brokers (Kochs, Mercers, Murdochs, etc). But January 6 saw GOP insiders openly aid and abet the suicide bombers and they may still get away with it – are they fueling their pwn eventual demise?
The West and Christianity has been doing the same shit to one another since at least the Reformation. It’s kind of a human condition.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
BTW, have you ever read ASOIAF or watched GoT?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Roger Moore:
Yup. What’s sad, is I’m not really sure how to fix this. Conservatives openly said when there was debate about court reform last year that they would ignore federal/SCOTUS rulings and consider them illegitimate if they were expanded
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
Man, I wish us lowly commenters could embed gifs
Morzer
The Book or The Abominations of Jackson?
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): No and no. Nor do I intend to.
StringOnAStick
Adam, I wonder if why the head of the CIA met with the Taliban in their soon to be country was because it showed a great deal of respect, and such demonstrations carry a lot of weight in this culture (I believe you taught me that). To me that shows a nuanced level of cultural understanding sorely lacking in the prior bull in a China shop administration .
thank you for continuing to give us your deeply informed insights .
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
Yeah, I don’t blame you. It’s pretty gorey and grimdark. Plus, the book series will never be finished and the TV show infamously shit the bed in the last few episodes
I’ve been thinking of trying out the Stormlight Archives by Brandon Sanderson that I’ve heard good things about.
Adam L Silverman
@StringOnAStick: I have no idea. What I commented on above is sheer speculation.
Kay
Which one of you is this?
persistentillusion
@Jeffro:
Well said. Say it louder for the people in the back.
Geminid
@Ken: The U.S. does not need bases and troops in Afghanistan in order to bomb IS-K. We’ve already been flying bombers to Afghanistan from bases and aircraft carriers outside the country for months.
Captain C
@JPL:
Wolf Blitzer made his bones gushing and fapping over the first Gulf War, and has been a replacement level hack ever since. He’ll never be too curious about the Blob or anyone supporting it.
Jay
From what I have read, ISIL-K is mostly active in the Af-Border areas on both sides, mostly engages/engaged in extortions, kidnappings and low level terrorism attacks against the villages, herders, travellers, the ANA, government officials and the Taliban.
At times they have managed to gear up for larger suicide/terror attacks deeper in Afghanistan.
The one time they managed to set up a tiny Caliphate, they got quickly got stomped out by US and ANA forces. Needing a place to regroup, they attacked a small force of Taliban holding Tora Bora and kicked them out. Local SDF forces and the Taliban tried to kick them out, with out success. The ANA got involved and the ISIL-K was scattered with many picked off by the SDF/Taliban groups in the mountains.
Once the ANA moved out of the Tora Bora area, the Taliban moved back in.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Adam, I have read in Iraq ISIS is the surrogate of Turkey. Any word on any such state backer for Isis-K?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Captain C: Blizer is kind of pompous self important stuffed shirt journalist that Doug is always making fun of.
Jay
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State_of_Iraq_and_the_Levant_–_Khorasan_Province
Steeplejack
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
No, just no.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Jay: Thanks, and god damn,
Pakistan?
Steeplejack
@Kay:
Things are so screwed up that I couldn’t tell from the story whether he was for or against the mask mandate.
Jay
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
the remaining ISIL combat elements in Syria, occupy the dead zones between the Turkish Military/Allies, the Kurdish SDF, and the Russian/SNA/Iranian forces.
They regularly raid everybody and their dogs to try to loot weapons and supplies from everybody.
They are kind of a modern form of the Rats of Nam Yum, occupying the No Mans Land. Blaming their continued existence is a useful blame game for everybody involved.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rats_of_Nam_Yum
ISIL-K will of course, have a lot of local support and presence in the Pakistani/Afghan border areas, due to the radicalized Madrassa’s and Refugee Camps still occupied since the Soviet Afghan War.
piratedan
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): better off reading The Black Company series by Glen Cook… think he’s pretty much the starting point for grimdark as a genre
Jerzy Russian
@Steeplejack: My impression is that he was for mask mandates, but as you say it is not completely clear.
Kent
As a casual observer it also strikes me that the Taliban have always been Afghanistan-centric with little or no interest in what goes on in the rest of the world. ISIS is an extreme religious movement that knows no borders.
cwmoss
@oldster: Thank you for finally asking the question on everyone’s mind!
Steeplejack (phone)
@Jerzy Russian:
That’s sort of what I thought, but . . .
opiejeanne
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you for the post and this set of answers. I always find your posts educational and they helped me get through the previous 4 years, although I did need a mild anti-depressant because of the chaotic nature of TFG combined with Covid-19.
Booger
@Roger Moore: FWIW, every piece of legislation which moves to a committee in the U.S. Congress has (or used to have, before being in Congress was performance art) a report issued, with majority and minority sections, which go into great detail about the purpose and intent of the legislation. So the bill as introduced, the respective committee reports, conference committee reports (if they are issued) and the bill as reported all become part of the legislative record to clarify intent, along with the actual public law as it is passed and signed by the President. So it shouldn’t be hard to fathom the intent of a bill that has been made into law in the more-or-less modern era.
J R in WV
@topclimber:
But the Army Air Corps destroyed Japan from the air by the time came for an invasion. Firebombing campaigns burned city after city. We didn’t really need the atomic bomb as their cities were very flammable and burned quite well with just a little starter from the B-24s
My uncle flew as a turret gunner on the flying fortresses from Guam to Burma and everywhere in between during that campaign.
Xenos
Not to discount the importance of prophecy to shape the direction of ISIS-K, but I would think an Afghan-located ISIS group would be more motivated to challenge and attach secular muslims in Russia and non-orthodox Sunnis and Sufis in Turkey. These close enemies would be much better placed to rapidly respond, however.
If the Taliban, maybe with Pakistani support can not contain and limit ISIS-K there may be a whole new course of fighting in Afghanistan that has nothing to do with the US.
J R in WV
Adam,
A belated thanks for this analysis, I found it very educational regarding the various threads of Islamic beliefs and their impact on geo-political events and terrorism.
I recall in the distant past some discussion of the Fiver, Twelver, etc strains, but do not recall the root of the terms or their meanings in current Islamic beliefs. Perhaps you can do some thoughts on that variety of Islamic belief in the future, when we aren’t trying to put out a fire.
As you mention, there are some startling similarities between primitive “fundamentalist” Christian beliefs in rural America and patriarchal beliefs in rural Islam. I suspect that any time you develop religious beliefs in order to keep a certain group (women) at the bottom and another group (male Ministers/Imams/Rabbis) on top, the underlying beliefs would seem to be required to be similar. Sad.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
It was B-29 Superfortresses from Guam and Saipan that did the firebombing. B-17s only served in the Pacific in the early war.
Buring the Japanese cities had nothing to do with the Japanese surrender – the Japanese were divided between the Army and the Navy and the Japanese Army viewed Manchuria as their private refuge if the Home Island fell; let the Americans kill off the real enemy, the Japanese Navy and then harass the occupation with a guerilla war until the US withdrew. The Soviet Invasion ended that plan.