Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Sometimes the world just tells you your cat is here.

Disappointing to see gov. newsom with his finger to the wind.

This really is a full service blog.

They are not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

One lie, alone, tears the fabric of reality.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

The words do not have to be perfect.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

This country desperately needs a functioning fourth estate.

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

We still have time to mess this up!

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

Fucking consultants! (of the political variety)

When they say they are pro-life, they do not mean yours.

If you can’t control your emotions, someone else will.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Tuesday / Wednesday, Sept. 14-15

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Tuesday / Wednesday, Sept. 14-15

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The United States is communicating regularly with India in bilateral and multilateral channels to discuss the supply of COVID-19 vaccines and inquire about its timeline for restarting vaccine exports, a senior Biden administration official said.

The global pandemic will be a key topic on Sept. 24, when U.S. President Joe Biden will host the first in-person summit of leaders of the “Quad” countries – Australia, India, Japan and the United States.

The visit by Prime Ministers Scott Morrison, Narendra Modi and Yoshihide Suga to the United States will coincide with the United Nations General Assembly in New York, which Biden will address on Sept. 21…

The administration official said Washington was staying in close touch with India and other Quad partners about the vaccine partnership, and “any factors that may affect this project or global vaccine supply,” but those discussions were not tied to a specific summit or engagement.

The official noted that Washington had diverted its own supply of raw materials for vaccine production to India in April, given its urgent needs, and global vaccine supply remained a key bottleneck to ending the pandemic…

… The world’s second-most populous country — and also one of its biggest vaccine manufacturers — imposed the ban in the spring as India raced to raise its immunization rate. Now, officials in the United States and with Covax, the United Nations-backed coronavirus vaccine distribution initiative that had counted on India to supply around a billion shots this year, hope a more stable health situation will persuade the country to resume exports. The pressure comes as wealthy nations, including the United States, move to offer coronavirus booster shots to their own vaccinated residents.

But Indian officials have not committed to a firm date. Instead, mixed messaging has clouded production forecasts, even as President Biden plans to call on global leaders to make new commitments to fight the pandemic, including fully vaccinating 70 percent of the world’s population by next September.

In early April, the chief executive of the Serum Institute of India — the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer by doses and a producer of the relatively low-cost Oxford-AstraZeneca shots seen as a lifeline for developing nations — told the Associated Press that the company could resume vaccine exports in June if the domestic health situation improved.

Infections increased the next month, however, peaking in May, with at least 2.7 million cases reported in one week. The institute subsequently said in a statement that it hoped to restart exports by the end of the year, but that it would not do so “at the cost of the people in India.”…

India’s ban has been particularly devastating for lower-income countries that are bearing the brunt of the latest wave of the pandemic. Covax officials said last week that India’s export curb was one of the reasons the program would only have access to about 1.4 billion doses by the end of 2021, far short of the 2 billion doses it had planned for…

Before the export ban, India had sold or donated about 66 million doses of the vaccine to almost 100 lower-income countries, government data shows. On Sunday, India recorded a seven-day rolling average of 33,779 infections — or about a 10th of what it was reporting in early May. The country has also administered at least one vaccine dose to about 40 percent of its population of nearly 1.4 billion.

There’s an old civil planning mantra that local authorities will always undercount casualties until a certain level of horror is reached… after which they will include every possible death as ‘disaster-related’. The Economist seems to have decided to publicize that tipping point for the pandemic:


More at the link, but I’m taking the numbers with a considerable helping of salt.

Businesses at Malaysia’s prime holiday destination are gearing up to welcome the return of tourists this week, as the country takes an early step towards recovery from a devastating coronavirus crisis.

Langkawi, a cluster of 99 islands in the Straits of Malacca, will reopen from Sept. 16 to fully vaccinated travellers as part of a domestic tourism bubble, with strict protocols in place to thwart the spread of the coronavirus…

The plan is similar to that introduced in Thailand, which started with the July reopening of Phuket, 220 km (137 miles) north of Langkawi, to vaccinated foreign tourists. Malaysia has yet to invite foreign tourists to return.

Like Phuket, Langkawi, known for its beaches, geoparks, bird life and rock formations, is not expecting huge numbers initially, with 400,000 visitors targeted by the end of the year and estimated revenues of 165 million ringgit ($39.66 million)…

Malaysia has recorded 2 million coronavirus cases overall among its 32 million population, one of Asia’s highest per-capita infection rates, with more than 20,000 deaths.

Its vaccination programme has progressed faster than its neighbours, with more than half the population inoculated, in the hope of a quicker return to normalcy…

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Reader Interactions

50Comments

  1. 1.

    NeenerNeener

    Monroe County, NY:
    NYS Dept of Health says 97 new cases for 9/13, Monroe County website says 166. I want to believe NYSDOH but the local website is probably closer to the truth.

  2. 2.

    YY_Sima Qian

    On 9/14 China reported 50 new domestic confirmed cases (9 previously asymptomatic) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases.

    Fujian Province reporter 50 new domestic confirmed (9 previously asymptomatic) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 152 active domestic confirmed cases & 13 active domestic asymptomatic cases.

    • Putian reported 33 new domestic confirmed case (9 previously asymptomatic). There currently are 92 active domestic confirmed cases (40 mild & 52 moderate) & 12 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 3,143 F1 & 2,966 F2 close contacts have been traced and placed under centralized quarantine. Due to the large number of young children being traced as close contacts, they are being quarantined w/ a parent or guardian. Fengting Township at Xianyou County is currently at High Risk. 3 villages are currently at Medium Risk, all at Xianyou County.
    • Quanzhou reported 5 new domestic confirmed cases (3 had been fully vaccinated), 4 are close contacts of positive cases in Putian & 1 is a close contact of a positive case in Xiamen. There currently are 15 active domestic confirmed cases in the city. 1 village is currently at Medium Risk.
    • Xiamen reported 12 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all traced close contacts. There currently are 45 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 zone is currently at High Risk.

     

    Yunnan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 7 active domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases there. 1 village in Ruili remains at Medium Risk. 

    Hunan Province did not reported any new domestic positive cases. 8 domestic confirmed case recovered & 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There are currently are 45 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.

    • At Zhuzhou the remaining 5 active domestic confirmed cases recovered.
    • At Zhangjiajie 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 45 active domestic confirmed cases in the city.

     

    Henan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 15 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.

    • At Zhengzhou there currently are 7 active domestic confirmed cases.
    • At Shangqiu there currently are 8 active domestic confirmed cases.

     

    Hubei Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 4 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 12 active domestic confirmed (6 mild & 6 moderate) & 7 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • At Jingzhou there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case.
    • At Jingmen 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There are currently 7 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
    • At Wuhan 2 domestic confirmed case recovered 2 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 4 active domestic confirmed & 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases.

     

    At Shanghai Municipality there currently are 6 active domestic confirmed cases.

    Imported Cases

    On 9/14, China reported 23 new imported confirmed cases (4 previously asymptomatic), 15 imported asymptomatic cases, 1 imported suspect case:

    • Yunnan Province (locations not specified) – 11 confirmed cases, 10 Chinese nationals returning from Myanmar & 1 from Laos; 2 asymptomatic cases, both Chinese nationals returning from Myanmar; all via land border crossings
    • Kunming in Yunnan Province – 2 confirmed cases, both Chinese nationals returning from Indonesia
    • Donguan in Guangdong Province – 2 confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic), 1 Chinese national  each returning from Guyana (via Miami & LAX) & Malaysia, off flights that landed at Guangzhou
    • Guangzhou in Guangdong Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from the Philippines; 4 asymptomatic cases, 2 Chinese nationals returning from Iran & 1 each from Bangladesh & the Ghana (via Nairobi)
    • Shenzhen in Guangdong Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from Kenya
    • Shanghai Municipality – 2 confirmed cases, a Chinese national returning from Thailand & a Japanese national coming from Japan; 1 suspect case, no information released
    • Tianjin Municipality – 1 confirmed case (previously asymptomatic), a Chinese national returning from Mauritania
    • Fuzhou in Fujian Province –  1 confirmed case (previously asymptomatic), a Chinese national returning from Japan; 1 asymptomatic case, coming from Brazil
    • Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province – 1 confirmed case (previously asymptomatic), coming from Tanzania;  1 asymptomatic case, coming from the UK
    • Zhengzhou in Henan Province – 1 confirmed case, no information released
    • Wuhan in Hubei Province – 1 asymptomatic case, coming from Indonesia
    • Chengdu in Sichuan Province – 3 asymptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Nigeria (via Frankfurt), the Ukraine (via Frankfurt) & Canada
    • Qingdao in Shandong Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Filipino crew member off a cargo ship w/ last port of call in Singapore
    • Xi’an in Shaanxi Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Kazakhstan (via Frankfurt)
    • Taiyuan in Shanxi Province – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released

     

    Overall in China, 46 confirmed cases recovered (33 imported), 18 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (13 imported) & 13 were reclassified as confirmed cases (4 imported), & 1,011 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 837 active confirmed cases in the country (596 imported), 4 in serious condition (all imported), 386 active asymptomatic cases (360 imported), 1 suspect case (imported). 15,205 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.

    As of 9/14, 2,156.938M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 4.418M doses in the past 24 hrs.

    On 9/15, Hong Kong reported 1 new positive case, imported (from the UK, had been fully vaccinated).

  3. 3.

    OzarkHillbilly

    #UPDATE Russian President Vladimir Putin says he hopes the Russia-made Sputnik V vaccine would protect him, after coronavirus cases were detected in his entourage forcing him into to isolate pic.twitter.com/LcSnnlAEXp

    Yeah. Right. Sure. Putin is protected by the Sputnik V vaccine. And I’ve got some prime beach front property to sell.

  4. 4.

    Chris Johnson

    OMG, Putin anxious as covid closes in on him…

    I realize the guy has all the money for all the western medicine to equal what Trump was given, or better, but I still found myself saying out loud “fucking DIE you motherfucker…”

    If there is ANY one person probably most responsible for what’s happened with covid, I think it is that one man. I think he’s been running the whole anti-vax, lunatic brigade thing worldwide, through troll farms stoking the flames all this time, because he thought it was somehow going to take down the west and because it was a perfect match for what his trolling operations could do.

    I could be wrong. That’s just the impression I have. I think he’s made the choice to throw all of Russia’s disinformation and trolling weight behind making everyone die of covid, not just in the US but everywhere Russia could gain from the collapse of other states.

    Let him be killed by his own damn monster. Please.

    This is one case where I’m actually happy that the vaccinated can still be overwhelmed by sheer mass of environmental covid flooding the hapless victim. I hope some of his intimates were fool enough to believe his malicious bullshit, as keeps happening to western rightwing maniacs.

  5. 5.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Chris Johnson: I could be wrong.

    If you are, it ain’t by much. Putin thrives on sowing chaos everywhere he can, except for at home. I think his only aim is to take advantage of whatever develops as best he can.

  6. 6.

    Geo Wilcox

    I just know my left hip replacement surgery is going to be shelved. Fucking assholes.  I’m not sure I even WANT to go into the hospital with all those Covid patients.

    At my local hospital (small rural town in SE I N) this is the result of the covidiots stupidity:

    MMH is currently evaluating elective inpatient surgeries on a day-to-day basis. Like many other hospitals, MMH may reach a point soon where they would have to cancel all elective surgeries if inpatient volumes continue to increase due to COVID.

    There are currently 27 patients on the Med/Surg floor, with four of those patients in the Special Care Unit. Sixteen of their patients are COVID positive with three of those on ventilators. 100% of the hospital’s current hospitalized patients under the age of 70 are NOT vaccinated.

  7. 7.

    Anomalous Cowherd

    We should all chip in and buy him all the ivermectin he can consume. Maybe some betadine gargle while we’re at it.

  9. 9.

    Amir Khalid

    Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 19,495 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 2,030,935 cases. It also reports 463 new deaths as of midnight, for a cumulative total of 21,857 deaths – 1.08% of the cumulative reported total, 1.21% of resolved cases.

    Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.96.

    911 confirmed active and contagious cases are in ICU, 414 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 18,760 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 1,783,339 patients recovered – 87.8% of the cumulative reported total.

    25 new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 5,207 clusters. 1,424 clusters are currently active; 3,783 clusters are now inactive.

    19,484 new cases today are local infections. Sarawak reports 4,709 cases: 356 in clusters, 3,648 close-contact screenings, and 705 other screenings.

    Selangor reports 2,707 local cases: 88 in clusters, 1,426 close-contact screenings, and 1,193 other screenings. Sabah reports 2,014 local cases: 81 in clusters, 1,118 close-contact screenings, and 815 other screenings.

    Johor reports 1,859 local cases: 202 in clusters, 902 close-contact screenings, and 755 other screenings. Penang reports 1,757 cases: 98 in clusters, 590 close-contact screenings, and 1,069 other screenings.

    Kelantan reports 1,434 cases: 64 in clusters, 946 close-contact screenings, and 424 other screenings. Kedah reports 1,178 cases: 11 in clusters, 757 close-contact screenings, and 410 other screenings. Perak reports 1,174 cases: 100 in clusters, 533 close-contact screenings, and 541 other screenings.

    Terengganu reports 993 cases: 15 in clusters, 813 close-contact screenings, and 165 other screenings.

    Pahang reports 765 local cases: 120 in clusters, 531 close-contact screenings, and 114 other screenings.

    Kuala Lumpur reports 358 local cases: one in a cluster, 176 close-contact screenings, and 181 other screenings.

    Negeri Sembilan reports 222 cases: 30 in clusters, 87 close-contact screenings, and 105 other screenings.

    Melaka reports 190 cases: xx in clusters, xx close-contact screenings, and xx other screenings. Perlis reports 108 cases: 49 close-contact screenings and 59 other screenings.

    Putrajaya reports 16 cases: nine close-contact screenings and seven other screenings. Labuan reports no new cases today.

    11 new cases today are imported: five in Kuala Lumpur, three in Selangor, one in Johor, one in Sabah, and one in Pahang.

    The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 243,971 doses of vaccine on 14th September: 71,658 first doses and 172,313 second doses. As of midnight yesterday, the cumulative total is 39,234,306 doses administered: 21,649,228 first doses and 17,653,079 second doses. 66.3% of the population have received their first dose, while 54.1% are now fully vaccinated.

  11. 11.

    rikyrah

    @Chris Johnson:

    He thought that others would want the Russian vaccine if he threw enough doubt about vaccines in the west.

    I don’t believe that he even took the Russian vaccine.

     

    But, ain’t nobody in America clamoring for a phucking Russian vaccine ?

  15. 15.

    New Deal democrat

    In the US, most but not all of the Labor Day holiday anomalies are out of the weekly averages, and yesterday’s 7 day average of 150k was 16k below the September 1 peak. The State level data is still too noisy, but should settle down in a couple of days.

    The more interesting news is that cases in the UK, which was the counterexample to Delta burning through the dry tinder quickly, have turned down again,  down about 15% from their secondary peak 6 days ago. Two events coincided almost exactly with the primary peak of July 19. First, the Tory government declared “freedom day” as of July 17, lifting all or nearly all restrictions. Second, the Euro 2020 soccer final on July 11 at Wimbledon Stadium was a “superspreader” event much like Sturgis. The result was that cases rebounded after August 4, as some new dry tinder had been added to the fuel. It looks like Delta burned through that in 6 weeks.

    A timeline to keep in mind as US schools open and Delta migrates north into Appalachia, the southern Border States, and the unvaccinated States of the northern West.

  16. 16.

    Ramiah Ariya

    @Matt McIrvin: “Putin, Trump and Narendra Modi” – One of them is not like the others.

    I love that the Chinese Premier, you know, the leader of the country which was the origin of the pandemic is now a hero; while Narendra Modi, the leader of a third world country that was one of the worst hit by the pandemic is now a villain!

  17. 17.

    dr. bloor

    HHS is limiting access to Covid-19 antibody drugs after just 7 southern states accounted for 70% of orders nationwide, sparking fears of a shortage,

    The move threatens to heighten tensions between the Biden admin and GOP govs:

    Area Seditionists Dismayed To Learn That Gubmint Refuses To Rescue Them From Their Own Stupidity

  19. 19.

    Another Scott

    @OzarkHillbilly: No link, but my (potentially faulty) recollection is that the Sputnik vaccine does work, for some values of work.  Their problem apparently was quality control and contamination (serious in at least one instance).

    What is comical to me is that no matter what day of the month the Russian death numbers always increase by the same amount.  For months it was just shy of 700.  Now it’s just shy of 800.  Every day.  It’s Stalinesque.  No wonder people there don’t trust anything from his government…

    Cheers,

    Scott.

  20. 20.

    Amir Khalid

    @Amir Khalid:

    Melaka reports 190 cases: xx in clusters, xx close-contact screenings, and xx other screenings.

    should be

    Melaka reports 190 cases: 36 in clusters, 96 close-contact screenings, and 58 other screenings.

    Oops.

  21. 21.

    lowtechcyclist

    Seconding @dr. bloor: ​

    @Ramiah Ariya: ​Reasonable people can argue that all three have demonstrated their virtuoso with the fiddle as their respective countries burned.

    And as @rikyrah ​said:

    Don’t forget that muthaphucka in Brazil​

  23. 23.

    Ken

    The map of hospital ICUs in Laurie Garrett’s tweet is misleading for the usual reasons. For example Wyoming looks pretty good; huge areas of gray with just a couple of small red dots. But looking closer, there are a lot of “no data” dots (gray-on-gray, terrible choice).

    So what we can say is that we don’t have data for most of the hospitals in Wyoming (and Montana, and Nebraska, and Kansas, and…); but the ones that did report are in the >90% full ICU categories.

  24. 24.

    bluefoot

    It boggles my mind that people would rather get treated for COVID with an antibody cocktail infusion (which is still under EUA) than take a fully approved vaccine that prevents severe illness and death.

    Had a really depressing experience earlier this week. My company had a Q&A about vaccine safety and science ahead of our vaccine mandate deadline. It was full of aggressive anti-vax assertions and lies disguised as “questions.” I felt really bad for the expert they brought in.
    The kicker: I work for a biotech company. Most of the anti-vax crap came from non-scientists.
    What was really sad is that there were legitimate questions that were drowned in the shouty bullshit.

  25. 25.

    Taken4Granite

    @Ken: Not disagreeing with your points, but at least some of it is the scarcity of health care facilities (due to low population density) in many of these states. In large parts of the interior West, having to go 100 miles or more to find an ICU bed was normal even pre-COVID. Add in pandemic cases and that can become several hundred miles.

  26. 26.

    Robert Sneddon

    Scotland — There were 4,917 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday (Yuesday) with 30 new reported deaths of someone who had tested. Test positivity rate is 9.2%. ICU bed occupancy numbers are 91, up two from yesterday while hospitalisations are 1,079, up 15.
    There were just under 5,000 vaccinations carried out in Scotland yesterday with about 40% of them being first-doses. This brings the total in the adult (16+) population to 90.9% first-dose and 83.3% fully vaccinated. The first-dose vaccination rate for 16 and 17-year-olds is now 65.3%, the only age group that’s showing noticeable growth in the number of vaccinations happening. Pretty much everyone over the age of 55 is fully vaccinated at this point but only 75% of the 16-29 year olds, the Young Immortals have received their first vaccination and that number has remained pretty steady for the past few weeks.

    Vaccinations are to be offered to all 12-15 year olds in Scotland, starting probably from Monday. This will be with the permission of the parents or guardians of the children. Kids can request vaccination themselves subject to conditions —
    “Children under the age of 16 can consent to their own treatment if they’re believed to have enough intelligence, competence and understanding to fully appreciate what’s involved in their treatment. This is known as being Gillick competent.”

    From the NHS website.

    It’s amusing that Victoria Gillick, an anti-abortion campaigner and general religious fundy who tried to promote the idea that minor children were the adjunct property of their parents has her name on the legal process that permits younger children to request treatment against their parents wishes and if necessary without their knowledge.

  27. 27.

    The Moar You Know

    Please.  Putin damn well didn’t get Sputnik V.

    Pfizer or Moderna, one of the two.  Just like every other bigwig and oligarch on the planet.

  29. 29.

    Wapiti

    @Ken: Yup. I figure that any hospital that isn’t reporting status is overwhelmed by Covid patients and unable to report.

  30. 30.

    smith

    @New Deal democrat:  Northern states have had Delta dominant for a while now. Delta has been the primary variant in all regions of the country since sometime in July. The map on this page shows the estimated proportions of variants by HHS region. You can go back in time by choosing the week ending date above the map. On the week ending 7/24, the region with the lowest proportion of Delta was in the Northwest, with 91.1% Delta. Since then Delta proportion has grown to pretty much 100% everywhere in the country.

    What’s been happening with rising infection rates in more northrn states is just the natural result of a highly infectious virus getting harder and harder to dodge as community infection rates climb. The increase has still been much slower in highly vaxxed states than in lower vaxxed ones, probably because breakthrough cases seem to pass on less virus for a shorter time period than cases in unvaxxed people.

  32. 32.

    Sloane Ranger

    Tuesday in the UK we had 26,628 new cases. This is a decrease of 14.3% in the rolling 7-day average. New cases by nation,

    England – 19,739 (down 1338)

    Northern Ireland – 1590 (up 391)

    Scotland – 3375 (down 866, but see Robert Sneddon’s update above)

    Wales – 1924 (down 2384).

    Deaths – There were 185 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday. This is an increase of 1.6% in the rolling 7-day average. 152 deaths were in England, 7 in Northern Ireland, 21 in Scotland and 5 in Wales.

    Testing – 1,043,118 tests took place on Monday, 13 September. This is an increase of 2.2%. The PCR testing capacity reported by labs on that date was 802,658.

    Hospitalisations – There were 8413 people in hospital and 1056 on ventilators on Monday, 13 September. The rolling 7-day average for hospital admissions was up by 5% as of 9 September.

    Vaccinations – 48,458,700 people had had the 1st shot of a vaccine as of Monday, 13 September and 44,108,746 had had both. This means that 89.2% of all UK residents aged 16+ had had 1 jab and 81.2% were fully vaccinated as of that date.

  33. 33.

    Matt McIrvin

    @smith: I’m trying to figure out whether the abrupt spike up we just saw across the whole Northeast is the result of schools opening, or an artifact of the post-Labor Day reporting backlog still appearing in weekly averages, or both. Probably some of both; we’ll see.

  34. 34.

    JaneE

    Side note.  A friend and his wife went to NOLA to see their daughter.  Both vaccinated, and both came down with Covid-19 immediately on their return (1 week trip).  They are fine now, never hospitalized, and still tested negative when they first started feeling unwell.  Three days later they were definitely sick, and tested positive.  Said it was like the worst flu he ever had, so it was a mild case, probably thanks to the vaccine.  At least I know where some of the bump in our numbers came from a couple weeks ago.

  35. 35.

    Ksmiami

    I was thinking that maybe Biden should mandate federal quarantines of areas where hospitals are at capacity. I mean the goobers are already calling him a dictator for merely asking for vaccinations so he might as well save the rest of America and isolate the asshats.

  36. 36.

    smith

    @Matt McIrvin: I’m puzzled by that, too especially since the case numbers went right back down today. One day spikes aren’t unusual, but they are most often due to a single state cleaning up its data or catching up with a backlog. This quick up and down, though, appeared simultaneously in several states.

  37. 37.

    Ken

    @Wapiti:  I figure that any hospital that isn’t reporting status is overwhelmed by Covid patients and unable to report.

    Or in a state where the government is pressuring them not to report, in order to make their numbers look better.

    “Which is a pretty terrible state to be in” — Groucho

  38. 38.

    Matt McIrvin

    @smith: If it went right back down, that’s the delayed effect of Labor Day on 7-day averages. A bunch of numbers got held back and reported a day late, so the subsequent week’s averages effectively had an extra day’s worth of data, until that spike rolled off the window.

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Even in the Northeastern states, there are still significant intra-regional variations in vaccination rate. In the relatively sparsely populated Upstate NY county (pop. ~ 100k) where my parents live, & where it is culturally closer to Alabama than NYC, only 48% of residents have taken at least 1 shot (& 1 shot does not offer much protection against Delta) & positivity rate is > 7% & daily incident rate has approached the winter peak (~ 130 cases / day). It is not yet winter there.

    For some reason my employer has not yet mandated vaccination, despite taking relatively aggressive measures throughout the pandemic. The Biden Administration’s new policies should help push it through. Word of mouth from my NY based colleagues indicates that the white collar salaried workers in offices & labs are mostly vaccinated, but the anti-vaxx sentiments among blue collar hourly workers in the manufacturing plants may be the reason my employer had shied away from issue a mandate before.

    I can’t wait for my parents to get booster shots!

  40. 40.

    smith

    @New Deal democrat: My point, though, is that Delta is not new to states outside the South. It didn’t outpace Alpha there until the week ending 6/26, when it was 42% in Region 4 (the deep South) at which time it was already more than 54% in Region 2 (NE excluding New England). The exponential growth in cases didn’t start until a couple weeks later, just after July 4, at which time Delta was by far the most prevalent variant everywhere in the country. Interestingly, the areas where Delta first appeared to gain traction were the Great Plains and Mountain West, and that was not where the surge started.

    The current surge is definitely due to Delta, but the patterns of infection across the country have much less to do with where Delta was first introduced than where the most susceptible populations were. To use your own analogy, there was much more dry tinder in the South, and unvaxxed rural areas generally, than in higher vaxxed areas. The places where Delta first gained traction but didn’t surge early are dry tinder areas as well, but probably were somewhat protected by low population density until quite recently.

  41. 41.

    Skepticat

    @Matt McIrvin: Given the article in the Portland, Maine, paper today that Mainers younger than 20 account for nearly half the new cases, it seems schools might be the reason.

  42. 42.

    New Deal democrat

    @smith: I generally agree with your 2nd paragraph.

    One thing to keep in mind, though, is that indoor activities tend to peak in the summer heat in the South, and in winter cold in the North.

    P.S. I also agree with Matt’s explanation for why there was a spike in the 7 day data yesterday. Most of it rolled off today, and the rest will probably roll off tomorrow.

  43. 43.

    mrmoshpotato

    HHS is limiting access to Covid-19 antibody drugs after just 7 southern states accounted for 70% of orders nationwide, sparking fears of a shortage,

     

    The move threatens to heighten tensions between the Biden admin and GOP govs:

    because there is a vaccine, actually 3, for the virus, you stupid, stupid, idiotic, Dump-humping, suicidal, own-the-libs-by-dying morons!

    That’s better.

  45. 45.

    Kent

    @smith: Low density areas are not more protected.  Here in the west coast the lowest density counties east of the Cascades have had the worst outbreaks by far.  And they are some of the least densely populated counties in the lower 48.  Many of those counties only have a couple of small towns and maybe one or two grocery stores through which everyone in the county passes.  Also a few churches that everyone attends.  So basically everyone is separated from everyone else by only one or two degrees of separation no matter the population density.  If the clerk at the one grocery store in the county has Covid then the entire county will be exposed in a matter of days no matter how far apart they all live.

  46. 46.

    Matt McIrvin

    @smith: In Massachusetts, it looked to me like the minimum when Delta took over from Alpha and cases began to rise again was in the few days just *before* July 4th. Last week of June, perhaps. But the numbers were so low, few people were paying attention.

    A while back I saw a French cartoon on Twitter about how politicians and scientists view a rising exponential growth curve. The “politician” panel has the low, early part of the curve labeled “low and steady”, the middle part labeled “rising plateau”, and the last part labeled “AAAAAHHHH! EXPONENTIAL GROWTH!!” The “scientist” panel has all three parts labeled “exponential growth”.

  49. 49.

    bluefoot

    @Kent:  Some of the legit questions: Should people on immunosuppresants get an antibody test after vaccination to see if they should get a booster sooner rather than later? Can they point to some published data for the effect of the vaccine on pregnant women and are their pregnancy-specific side effects they can expect or be prepared for? Where can people find a list of ingredients for each vaccine type in case of allergy? Has there been any data showing ADE with the vaccines? With the vaccine mandate, will the company compensate for severe adverse reactions to vaccination (allow time off, etc)?

    There is data answering the legit questions, but not necessarily well-publicized. And for pregnancy, I know there’s a lot of non-scientific advice out there in general, not just for vaccination.

    Again, nearly all the people asking questions weren’t scientists. (Nearly of the scientists I know have been obsessively poring over data since the Phase I/II started being released.)

  50. 50.

    bluefoot

    @Matt McIrvin: ​
      This is so true! At the low part of the curve before each surge, I was going around hair on fire “what part of exponential growth don’t you understand?!?!!”

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