Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

No Justins, No Peace

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

Consistently wrong since 2002

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

I wonder if trump will be tried as an adult.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

Not all heroes wear capes.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

I really should read my own blog.

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 Coronavirus / COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Wednesday / Thursday, Sept. 22-23

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Wednesday / Thursday, Sept. 22-23

by | 78 Comments

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Pan-American Health Organization:

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Hey, remember Dr. Gokal?

Reader Interactions

78Comments

  1. 1.

    NeenerNeener

    Monroe County, NY:

    Monroe County web site: 162 new cases, 4.4% test positivity
    NYSDOH says 193 new cases.

  4. 4.

    MomSense

    Kid was exposed to someone who has  COVID at work last week  and he started not feeling well last night.  He hasn’t gotten his test results yet.  He’s very angry that someone was unvaccinated and unmasked at their office.

  5. 5.

    lowtechcyclist

    @MomSense:

    He’s very angry that someone was unvaccinated and unmasked at their office.

    As he has every right to be. This notion that one’s personal freedoms extend to behaviors that put others at risk needs to permanently go in the dumpster.

  6. 6.

    sab

    @MomSense: Same here. Oldest grand-daughter missed a week of college and a weekend of work because of a covid scare. Why can these nutcases deprive other people of income in order to prove they are nuts?

  7. 7.

    Nicole

    I skimmed through the Cell piece on the Tdap and MMR vaccines possibly offering some protection against severe Covid and it was interesting, although at this point they don’t have any real-world data on how it might affect outcomes.  But very cool that a vaccine is not necessarily limited to the specific virus its designed to protect against; that there’s likely some spillover protection.

    I had to get the MMR booster a couple of years ago as I failed the titer test.  I know I was vaccinated twice as a kid, but I read some Gen Xers show waning immunity, at least via the titer test.  A virologist I know gave me a long but interesting lecture on T cells and B cells and why the titer test didn’t prove I was no longer immune.  Her enthusiasm for T and B cells was, dare I say it, infectious.

    But getting an MMR booster was no biggie.  Interestingly, the only other vaccine I’ve had besides the Covid one where they made me wait 15 minutes after to make sure there was no reaction.

  10. 10.

    YY_Sima Qian

    On 9/22 China reported 28 new domestic confirmed cases & 0 new domestic asymptomatic cases.

    Fujian Province reporter 20 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 438 active domestic confirmed cases & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases.

    • Putian reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 200 active domestic confirmed cases (82 mild, 116 moderate & 2 critical); 196 at the epicenter Xianyou County, 3 at Xiuyu District & 1 at Licheng District) & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases (all at Xianyou County) in the city. 4,759 F1 & 9,381 F2 close contacts have been traced & placed under quarantine. Parts of Fengting Township at Xianyou County have been re-designated as Low Risk, the rest of the township remains at High Risk. 4 zones, 1 residential building, 1 school, 1 community & 7 villages aren currently at Medium Risk, all at Xianyou County.
    • Quanzhou did not report any domestic positive cases. There currently are 24 active domestic confirmed cases (1 serious) in the city. 1 zone & 1 village have been elevated to Medium Risk. 4 villages & 1 zone are currently at Medium Risk.
    • Xiamen reported 17 new domestic confirmed cases (9 are traced close contacts & 8 from mass screening). There currently are 211 active domestic confirmed cases in the city (56 mild, 147 moderate, 7 serious & 1 critical; 186 in the epicenter Tong’an District, 9 at Si’ming District, 8 at Haicang & 7 at Huli District). 7,142 F1 & 14,537 F2 close contacts have been traced & placed under quarantine. The entire Xinmin Township has been elevated to High Risk. 1 residential compound, 2 communities & 2 villages has been elevated to Medium Risk. 5 villages, 1 zone & 2 communities & 3 residential compounds are currently at Medium Risk.
    • Zhangzhou did not report any new domestic positive cases. There have been 3 active domestic confirmed cases (all moderate) reported in the city, though they are actually being treated at Xiamen. 1 community remains at Medium Risk

    Harbin in Heilongjiang Province reported 8 new domestic confirmed cases (2 mild & 6 moderate; 7 at Bayan County & 1 at Nangang District), all traced close contacts. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed cases in the city. 529 F1 & 1,342 F2 close contacts have been traced & placed under quarantine. 2 residential compounds, 3 residential buildings & an office have been elevated to Medium Risk. 3 residential buildings, 4 residential compounds & an office are currently at Medium Risk.

    Yunnan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 9 active domestic confirmed & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province, all at Ruili in Dehong Prefecture.

    At Hunan Province there currently are 13 active domestic confirmed cases remaining in the province, all at Zhangjiajie

    At Henan Province there currently are 8 active domestic confirmed cases, all at Shangqiu.

    At Hubei Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered & 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed (mild), at Jingmen.

    At Shanghai Municipality there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases.

    Imported Cases

    On 9/22, China reported 15 new imported confirmed cases, 14 imported asymptomatic cases, 2 imported suspect cases:

    • Yunnan Province (locations not specified) – 5 confirmed cases, all Chinese nationals returning from Myanmar; 2 asymptomatic cases, both Chinese nationals returning from Laos; all via land border crossings
    • Tianjin Municipality – 3 confirmed cases, no information released, yet
    • Wuhan in Hubei Province – 2 confirmed & 2 asymptomatic cases, all coming from Pakistan
    • Shanghai Municipality – 2 confirmed cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from the Brazil (via Switzerland) & Japan; 2 suspect cases, no information released
    • Guangzhou in Guangdong Province – 2 confirmed cases, a Chinese national returning from Gabon (via Nairobi) & a foreign national coming from Ethiopia; 3 asymptomatic cases, 2 Chinese nationals returning from Gabon & 1 from Ghana (all via Nairobi)
    • Shenzhen in Guangdong Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Indonesia
    • Foshan in Guangdong Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Turkey, off a flight that landed at Guangzhou
    • Dalian in Liaoning Province – 1 confirmed case, no information released
    • Shenyang in Liaoning Province – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released
    • Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province – 2 asymptomatic cases, 1 each coming from Guyana & Mexico
    • Lanzhou in Gansu Province – 1  symptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Russia
    • Beijing Municipality – 1 symptomatic case, no information released

    Overall in China, 37 confirmed cases recovered (36 imported), 8 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (7 imported) & none were reclassified as confirmed cases, & 499 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 990 active confirmed cases in the country (511 imported), 14 in serious condition (4 imported), 348 active asymptomatic cases (340 imported), 4 suspect case (all imported). 17,612 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.

    As of 9/22, 2,186.583M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 3.979M doses in the past 24 hrs.

    On 9/23, Hong Kong reported 2 new positive cases, both imported (from Kenya & Pakistan).

  12. 12.

    NotMax

    Chloe no showy.

    The woman who made headlines for allegedly using a fake, misspelled vaccine card while flying to Hawaii is in trouble again — this time for missing a scheduled court appearance.

    Chloe Mrozak, 24, of Oak Lawn, Illinois was supposed to appear before a judge Wednesday morning at 8:30 a.m.

    She failed to make that virtual court appearance and a $500 bench warrant was issued for her arrest in the state of Hawaii.
    [snip]
    Earlier this month, she appeared before Judge Tracy Fukui via webcam while jailed in Honolulu. It was at that time when she made a promise that she would follow-through with all court dates ahead.

    “Ms. Mrozak, if this court releases you, are you going to make all your court appearances? And you are allowed to appear by zoom,” Judge Fukui told her. Source

  14. 14.

    Baud

    @rikyrah:

    Exactly. I wish the media would point that out when they report on deaths.  The number doesn’t have the same meaning it had before.

  15. 15.

    Barbara

    @MomSense: ​I would be grinding my teeth and conjuring revenge fantasies.
    I still cannot fathom all these young parents turning their backs on modern medicine and putting their own children at risk of being orphaned.​ Just putting them out there alone in the world.

  16. 16.

    HeartlandLiberal

    Can I just take a moment to say how much I appreciate Anne Laurie for curating this COVID dispatches from the front? It is my morning go to for catching up on situation every morning there is an new daily or bi-daily post. Such a good job of covering this crisis, in all its ramifications, both health and political.

  18. 18.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Nicole: There have been those oddball results going back a ways, some suggesting that just about ANY vaccine offers some cross-protection against severe COVID (maybe just by getting your immune system generally amped up). Once a COVID vaccine was available they became kind of moot for anyone willing to get one. But these things are worth knowing.

  20. 20.

    Matt McIrvin

    btw, cases in Massachusetts seem to be at a plateau–there was a big sudden outbreak in Hampden and Hampshire Counties that is on the downslope now; things seem to be cresting here in Essex County (these are among the lower-vaccination parts of the state). I was expecting an explosion from schools opening but it hasn’t been quite that bad. Fingers crossed.

  23. 23.

    New Deal democrat

    Nationwide US cases down over 20% from the peak of the Delta wave 3 weeks ago. In the South, cases are down 33%, and in the West down 25%, mainly reflecting California’s decline. In the past week, cases have held steady in the Northeast and Midwest. As of now, it looks like the opening of schools is not going to cause another peak.

    The top 10 States for new infections, are as usual dominated by the least vaccinated States, but are now those in the Appalachians and Northern tier.

    I now suspect the US experience with Delta will be more like India’s and Israel’s, and less like the UK’s, and there will be a big decline until cold weather social gatherings kick in.

  24. 24.

    Suzanne

    @Barbara:

    I still cannot fathom all these young parents turning their backs on modern medicine and putting their own children at risk of being orphaned.​ Just putting them out there alone in the world. 

    Oh, but, after they die of their own stupidity, someone organizes a GoFundMe!

    That was snark, in case it wasn’t obvious.

    Maybe it should go viral that we shouldn’t donate to GoFundMes for the survivors of people who die of Terminal Stupidity.

  26. 26.

    p.a.

    TD (Boston) Garden requiring vax proof or neg test for all events, including Bruins & Celtics, joining other venues across country.  LV Raiders sold out Sunday despite requirements, and provided 6,000 1st vax shots to fans.

    Mandates work.

  28. 28.

    Amir Khalid

    Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 13,754 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 2,156,678 cases. It also reports 487 new deaths as of midnight, for a cumulative total of 24,565 deaths – 1.14% of the cumulative reported total, 1.25% of resolved cases.

    Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.92.

    868 confirmed active and contagious cases are in ICU, 387 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 16,628 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 1,933,716 patients recovered – 89.7% of the cumulative reported total.

    15 new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 5,369 clusters. 1,268 clusters are currently active; 4,101 clusters are now inactive.

    13,750 new cases today are local infections. Selangor reports 1,985 cases: 174 in clusters, 938 close-contact screenings, and 873 other screenings. Johor reports 1,912 local cases: 174 in clusters, 1,024 close-contact screenings, and 714 other screenings. Sarawak reports 1,766 cases: 19 in clusters, 909 close-contact screenings, and 838 other screenings. Sabah reports 1,627 local cases: 194 in clusters, 892 close-contact screenings, and 541 other screenings.

    Kelantan reports 1,264 cases: 60 in clusters, 809 close-contact screenings, and 395 other screenings. Penang reports 1,052 cases: 37 in clusters, 329 close-contact screenings, and 686 other screenings.

    Pahang reports 869 cases: 212 in clusters, 560 close-contact screenings, and 97 other screenings. Perak reports 844 cases: 78 in clusters, 414 close-contact screenings, and 352 other screenings.

    Kedah reports 783 cases: 520 close-contact screenings and 263 other screenings.

    Terengganu reports 664 cases: three in clusters, 515 close-contact screenings, and 146 other screenings.

    Kuala Lumpur reports 382 local cases: seven in clusters, 171 close-contact screenings, and 204 other screenings.

    Melaka reports 292 cases: 33 in clusters, 118 close-contact screenings, and 141 other screenings.

    Negeri Sembilan reports 175 cases: one in a cluster, 106 close-contact screenings, and 68 other screenings. Perlis reports 113 cases: 47 close-contact screenings and 66 other screenings.

    Putrajaya reports 14 cases: 11 close-contact screenings and three other screenings. Labuan reports eight cases: three in clusters and five other screenings.

    Four new cases today are imported: two in Sabah, one in Johor, and one in Kuala Lumpur.

    The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 321,342 doses of vaccine on 22nd September: 121,631 first doses and 199,711 second doses. As of midnight yesterday, the cumulative total is 41,247,271 doses administered: 22,348,422 first doses and 18,986,347 second doses. 68.4% of the population have received their first dose, while 58.1% are now fully vaccinated.

  29. 29.

    Matt McIrvin

    @p.a.: I’m a bit nervous that, given Delta, these mandates aren’t quite enough any more, that really they should be requiring proof of vax AND negative test at the very least. But this should take the edge of these openings off.

  32. 32.

    Steeplejack

    @Amir Khalid:

    Damn, 487 deaths. I remember the days when you would report a handful of deaths and give individual details on each one. Such an ongoing tragedy. Stay safe, Amir!

  33. 33.

    John S.

    He’s very angry that someone was unvaccinated and unmasked at their office.

    So was I a few weeks ago when I overheard an employee practically bragging about how they were unvaccinated and not being required to be tested.

    I work for a large Fortune 500 company that has been demanding everyone return to the office for months. But they neglect to have uniform standards for all employees.

    I (and many others) have decided not to put ourselves at risk until our employer steps up and does the right thing. HR is entirely sympathetic to the situation, but powerless to get our CEO to change.

    Things are going to get interesting.

  35. 35.

    MomSense

    @John S.: 
    I think employers have a responsibility to make sure their workplace is safe. That the pandemic and vaccination have become politicized is a crime. Surely if rando stalkers in Texas can sue to prevent women from accessing health care, those of us harmed by these sociopathic anti vaxxers, media figures, influencers, and politicians should be able to sue.

  36. 36.

    John S.

    @MomSense:

    I have a feeling that if things play out the way they seem to be, there will be a tidal wave of lawsuits against my current employer. They have bungled the entire situation in the most spectacular ways.

    Maybe that will be enough for the board to finally wake up and get rid of our horrible CEO. But probably not.

  37. 37.

    Cermet

    @rikyrah: No, they are not dying for just no reason – they are dying to increase Murdoch’s profits, and to enable thugs to hold/increase their power. So, very worthwhile for the thug party of death.

  38. 38.

    Ken

    @Chyron HR: I thought llama blood was going to be the next big thing, but then I scrolled down and saw the hydrogen peroxide article. That sounds much more likely, although there’s not much potential for grift — unless you need a prescription for the nebulizer?

    Beauticians may be able to profit, I think you need a license to buy the 40-volume (12%) peroxide they used.

  39. 39.

    Amir Khalid

    @Geminid:

    Reports have been showing up in news media recently. There was one about schoolteachers in the past few days, and another one about staff in the religious (Islamic) affairs department in Selangor. The media reports don’t say why people are refusing free vaccinations, though, or where they’re getting the information that’s putting them off.

  40. 40.

    Scout211

    i have a question for the 65 and over jackals. (I hear there may be one or two in the audience here).

    After the final approval process (there’s another agency voting yet today), what will all of you plan to do if you were vaccinated with Moderna? Get the third shot of Pfizer?  Wait until Moderna is approved for the third shot? Find a pharmacy who will give you a Moderna off-label?

    My husband and I are inclined to wait for Moderna to get emergency approval for the third shot but are not at all certain what to do. It feels like we have a bit more time to decide, at least here in California since our case rate is going down. But since the olds have priority right now, it  may be time we just get the third shot and shouldn’t wait.

    What are you all planning to do?

  41. 41.

    Nicole

    A friend of mine was waiting on a PCR result today because a friend of hers who had Covid very early in the pandemic and has since been vaccinated, tested positive (turns out she’d been sucking a lot of face with her unvaccinated boyfriend WUT THAT SHOULD BE GROUNDS FOR A BREAKUP GET YOUR SHOT).  My friend, fortunately, tested negative, as did all the people this PERSON WENT OUT AND SOCIALIZED WITH AFTER FINDING OUT BOYFRIEND TESTED POSITIVE.

    Boyfriend was sick enough he went into the hospital for a few days, but friend of friend never had any symptoms.  She found out she was positive because she works for a cancer facility and they test regularly.

    Let that sink in.  Socializing unmasked with unvaccinated (the boyfriend isn’t the only one she spends time with, although the only one romantically) when you work for a cancer facility.

    I’m hopeful data will eventually show that natural infection + vaccination = unlikely to transmit, even if you pick up an asymptomatic case, but we’re not there yet.

  42. 42.

    Nicole

    @Scout211: I’m not 65, but I obsessively read Covid articles as I tap my foot waiting for Pfizer to get EUA for the 5-11 crowd.

    The data seems (seems) to be indicating that the Moderna shot is offering longer lasting protection than the Pfizer.  It was a higher dose and a slightly different working of the mRNA than Pfizer.  So far, there’s not been a significant drop off of immune response in Moderna recipients.   I think you’re okay.  A booster won’t do a ticky’s worth of good if you’re already still well protected, and in fact, the break between shots is part of what helps the immune system improve protection, so your body benefits from the break because it can make better protection if the booster comes later.

    So my advice would be to hold off a bit, but my first advice would be to ask your doctor what they think and then to do what they say.

  43. 43.

    Matt McIrvin

    Repeated from another thread: Puerto Rico has been an unsung COVID vaccination success story. Depending on which source you look at, they’ve either got a higher proportion of their population vaccinated than any state, or are about even with the best of the New England states. They had a Delta wave along with everyone else but it seems to be abating really rapidly, and deaths and hospitalizations are about on the New England level, relatively low. It seems like the key thing is the relative lack of politicized antivax agitation–it is just not a partisan issue there.

  44. 44.

    Amir Khalid

    @Steeplejack:
    The Ministry of Health may have revised its criteria for counting a death as a Covid-19 fatality. This change only happened a few days ago. It could also be that Delta-variant cases, which we’re seeing more of, have a higher fatality rate.

  45. 45.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Nicole: I’m in my fifties, in that under-65-but-somewhat-aged gray area where some but not all scientists think we should get boosters. And I’m somewhat comforted now by the fact that by chance I got the Moderna shot. (Though one problem with those results is that there are just fewer of them because the Moderna isn’t used in as many countries.) I’m willing to wait for further guidance.

    It seems to me the more urgent thing, though it affects fewer people, is to decide what to do about J&J recipients (my wife is one). Johnson & Johnson of course has already pointed out that a second shot does wonders for them–the only reason J&J was distributed as a single-shot vaccine in the first place was somewhat arbitrary market positioning; they tested it that way and found it good enough against the earlier variants of COVID. But a second shot now would provide them with really robust protection, and some other doctors are urging they get an mRNA booster instead. But it seems like those people have fallen through the cracks a bit in the US because there are fewer of them.

  46. 46.

    Geminid

    @Amir Khalid: I wonder where the anti-vaccination propadanda is coming from. I hope it does not spread to more general areas. The thoughtful @Mangy Jay (Magdi Semrau) has been writing about the synergy between anti-vaccination agitation and rightwing populist political movements in the U.S. and Europe. I hope Malaysia can avoid these trends.

  47. 47.

    charon

    @Scout211:

    Supposedly waiting 6 months is more effective than getting the booster earlier. That works for me, and my second shot was not until late June, so not until December – by then I expect Moderna booster will be approved.

    Getting a Pfizer booster would entail cheating as it is supposed to only be for Pfizer vaccinations

     

    Besides which, there is a lot of evidence Moderna is superior to Pfizer.

  48. 48.

    Robert Sneddon

    Scotland — 4,024 new cases reported today. The technical issues with some COVID-19 case reporting over the weekend seems to have been dealt with. The test positivity rate is 8.0%. There were 37 new deaths reported overnight. ICU bed occupancy numbers are 86, up four from yesterday while hospitalisations are 1,057, down 50.

    There were just over 5,300 vaccinations carried out in Scotland yesterday (Wednesday) with over 50% of these being first vaccinations. 91.2% of 16+ adults are now vaccinated with their first dose and 83.9% are fully vaccinated. 70.0% of 16 and 17-year-olds have now received their first vaccination, up 0.2% from yesterday. It’s likely that most 16-17 year olds will be getting vaccinated at the weekends since they are generally at school Mon-Fri, ditto for the newly-accessioned 12-15 year old age group.

    Despite having very high numbers of fully vaccinated people in Scotland the number of new cases, daily deaths, hospital cases and ICU bed occupancy remains worryingly high for no clear reason. There’s no official breakdown on the ratio between vaccinated and unvaccinated cases requiring hospital treatment and nothing that clearly states typical age spreads of those infected.

  49. 49.

    Steeplejack

    @Scout211:

    Not answering your question directly, just weighing in, but I got Pfizer in March-April and think I’ll look for the booster in December (eight months) unless new information comes in.

    I expect there will be news from Moderna soon.

  50. 50.

    Scout211

    @Nicole:

    Thank you.  Since we did get the Moderna, we are inclined to wait.  And since we initially thought the time frame would be 8 months, that’s not unreasonable.  We will talk to our doctor and see what she thinks. I am more concerned about my husband who had zero reaction to the 2nd Moderna. Mine was 36 hours of a strong reaction.

    @charon:

    Our second dose was March 8th, so we are just past the 6 months. But I think we can wait and see if Moderna gets the emergency approval. Especially since California case rates are looking better right now and we still mask everywhere.

  51. 51.

    New Deal democrat

    @Nicole:
    Here is my K.I.S.S. Best guess of where we go from here.

    Since June 30, the approximate date when the US Delta wave began, the percent of people fully vaccinated has only risen by 8% from 47% to 55%. Meanwhile the percent of the population that has had a confirmed case of COVID has risen 2.7% from 10.2% to 12.9%. Most serological studies have estimated that for every confirmed case, there is at least 1 other unconfirmed case.

    That gives us estimated percentages of
    55% vaccinated, +
    9% infected with COVID before June 30 who remain unvaccinated, +
    5.0% infected by Delta and unvaccinated (estimating that 90% of Delta cases have been among the unvaccinated),
    For a total of 69% of the US population with resistance to infection.

    Projecting this forward another 3 months at the same rates adds roughly 8% newly vaccinated* + 5% new infections**, for a total of 82% by year’s end. If that continues through winter, we hit 90% and herd immunity by the end of the likely winter wave.

    *we are hitting the wall of hardcore anti-vaxxers among adults, countered by employer mandates and vaccinations for younger children.
    **assuming Delta rolls out at roughly the same rate it rolled in, followed by a new winter wave

  52. 52.

    JAFD

    @Scout211: ​ As someone who got Moderna shots back in Jan/Feb – I don’t know about booster shot, now. Am going to ask my MDs next time I see them. Don’t see reason to panic.​
    ​
    IOW, basically agree with Ms. Nicole.
    ​

  53. 53.

    Unique uid

    @Scout211:  I was browsing in the last hour and saw a note that Moderna had sent some data to FDA, but needs to file more documents. It claimed that they plan on a half dose shot for a booster, suggested six months after the second shot.

    I got the impression/hope that this may be in place by November, when the six months would be up for me.

    I’m currently quite isolated, so willing to wait. But personally, wouldn’t feel bad about taking a full Moderna shot as booster today, if I had good reason.

    Sorry, no link. On iPad, can’t find it in history.

  54. 54.

    mrmoshpotato

    A Texas doctor was fired after doling out expiring vaccine doses. Now, he’s suing over the ‘revenge campaign.’

    I look forward to the case – and him – being thrown out of court.

  55. 55.

    VOR

    @Matt McIrvin: I imagine the aftermath of Hurricane Maria meant there weren’t a lot of feral MAGAts on Puerto Rico so the sane people could deal with things. I doubt anyone was loudly singing the praises of TFG after Maria.

  56. 56.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Scout211: ​FWIW this auld phart (>70) currently plans to wait for Moderna to obtain booster approval, but I’m not amused that they seem to be slow (or half-fast) in collecting and filing the evidence to obtain it. Meantime I’ll continue to restrict outside activities to quick strikes at venues of low crowd density and/or good ventilation. YMMV

  57. 57.

    KDL

    @New Deal democrat:

    given the history of the COVID pandemic (infection waves, variants, vaccine waves, regional variation), is there a good reason to project the next three months as having the same rates for (1) new vaccinations, and (2) new infections as the last 3 months? I’m no epidemiologist, and don’t have data sets to work from, but I’d guess each rate will be lower in the next 3 months.

    More importantly, if the last 18 months have shown anything, it’s that predictions are mostly pointless and the achievement of “herd immunity” always around the next corner.

  61. 61.

    Nicole

    @New Deal democrat: It’s hard to say, but it’d be great if your prediction is correct.   Though I have gotten so very accustomed to carrying my mask on my wrist when I go outside, like a tiny handbag.  (I always carry it in case I have to go indoors anywhere)

  63. 63.

    WaterGirl

    @Scout211: The latest I have seen, even in one of the tweets above, is that we are being told NOT to mix and match.

    Biden or someone said in the past week that Moderna approval for the booster should be on the way within weeks.

    I had Moderna and I am going to wait.  We get mad every single day at the idiots who refuse to listen and refuse to get vaccinated.

    I am of the opinion that we Moderna people should wait for Moderna because that is what we are being told/asked to do.ad

  64. 64.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Unique uid: Half dose of Moderna is, I think, still more active ingredient than a full dose of the Pfizer. They’re probably thinking a full-dose booster of Moderna in an already-primed immune system would be big enough to have more bothersome side effects.

  65. 65.

    Matt McIrvin

    @KDL: I think his SWAG of a constant rate is not too bad: since the beginning of the Delta wave, the vaccination rate has been roughly constant, with some movement from first to second shots. One the on hand, as he said, the remaining adults are getting harder to reach. On the other hand, as he said, Biden’s vaccine mandates will have some effect over the next few months, and at some point, it will become possible to vaccinate children 5-12. That will all make the numbers fluctuate in hard-to-predict ways but a constant rate seems like as good an approximation as anything.

  66. 66.

    Matt McIrvin

    @WaterGirl: Seconded. Given everything I’ve read, I think I might be able to benefit from a booster shot several months from now, but I’m not clamoring to pull strings to get one ahead of the system.

    I think the panel a few days back was correct to reject universal boosters for everyone over 16; that would largely be wasted effort. The question mark is vaccinated people from about ages 40 or 50 to 65 (and that’s me). I would guess that if we start getting very sick in substantial numbers the consensus will shift.

  67. 67.

    smith

    @New Deal democrat: 
    Projecting future vaccination rates is iffy because most of the major vaccination mandates have not fully kicked in yet. The federal mandate, for instance, has a deadline in late November for federal employees, with a longer timeline for contractors due to required regulatory procedures. Unvaccinated employees will not have a testing out option, except for those with medical or religious exemptions. I’ve heard from my niece in the WH that the criteria for religious exemptions will be very stringent — you won’t be able to just produce a note from some random preacher.

    This mandate alone, plus the one for medical facilities receiving Medicare and Medicaid funding, should have a big impact in the next few months, assuming no monkey wrenches thrown in by RWNJ judges. As appalling as the current SCOTUS is, it has not shown any signs (yet) of being willing to undermine vaccine mandates.

  68. 68.

    Scout211

    @Matt McIrvin:

    They’re probably thinking a full-dose booster of Moderna in an already-primed immune system would be big enough to have more bothersome side effects.

    That is my thinking as well.  IIRC, the Pfizer is not a booster, but rather a third shot.  It sounds like the Moderna is a booster.

    My BIL (immunocompromised due to chronic Leukemia) got his third shot the first week that they were available to the immunocompromised.  My sister signed him up at a local grocery  chain store pharmacy.  They only had Moderna, so that is what he got and I am happy that he did since his immune system is really compromised.  However, I don’t think that a Moderna dose after two Pfizer doses was what the CDC was recommending.  The pharmacies don’t seem that strict in some areas.

  69. 69.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Nicole: Notice that, just like Cheryl Rofer’s spreadsheet model from a few days back, most of the gain in immunity still comes from vaccination, not from infection. A wave strong enough to cause horrifying mass death and absolute misery in the medical system is still not rapid enough to get to a high level of general immunity over a matter of months.

    I recall the grim calculations early in the pandemic calling “flatten the curve” a chimera just because if getting past this really required infecting 70 percent of the population (an underestimate by Delta standards), while putting just enough restrictions in place to keep healthcare systems from collapsing, we’d have to keep those restrictions in place for something like five years. Given poor vaccine uptake, the best we might be able to do is cut that approximately in half, but that’s something, I suppose.

  70. 70.

    charon

    @Matt McIrvin:   I think you all and Cheryl are vastly underestimating the number of undiagnosed asymptomatic or mild infections there have been.

    Also behaviors, occupations, locations vary widely, not all unvaccinated are easily accessible to the virus.  So, I expect the incidence of new cases to be coming down a lot.

    Also, BTW, the concept of “herd immunity” is bogus in this COVID context, as it assumes a reasonably homogenous population experiencing similar exposures, not at all what this COVID situation is.

  71. 71.

    Fair Economist

    I know I sound like a broken record at this point, but there’s no such thing as “herd immunity” for a respiratory coronavirus. For the human coronavirus 229E, within one year antibodies have dropped to a basal level inadequate to prevent reinfection by the exact same strain. Anybody who got COVID in the spring or summer waves in 2020 is already vulnerable to re-infection, and anybody who got it in the winter is now getting there. Pfizer protection is now looking similar to natural infection; Moderna is (suprisingly) better but even that won’t last forever.

    That’s not even considering evolution of new strains.

    Now prior infection or vaccination will still provide protection against severe infection, and at least some of that will be lifetime. But SARS2 is just *so* much more dangerous than previously known human respiratory viruses that I don’t see SARS2 reinfection being reduced to near-nuisance levels like that of the existing common cold viruses.

  72. 72.

    Bill Arnold

    @lowtechcyclist:

    This notion that one’s personal freedoms extend to behaviors that put others at risk needs to permanently go in the dumpster.

    It’s morally akin to driving through a residential neighborhood and putting rifle bullets through randomly chosen houses.
    Not a perfect analogy, since such an incident of random shooting would not typically spread, but SARS-CoV-2, and especially Delta, does spread, rapidly.

  73. 73.

    J R in WV

    Wife and I got our first set of Moderna shots last Feb/Mar at the local rural Primary Care Clinic. We went to a friend’s 74th birthday party in April, was a little uncomfortable, it was a bigger crowd than we expected, no way to know if everyone was vaccinated, tho the whole point of the party was all vaccinated… but now we know what that means — “I’m naturally healthy, I don’t need a shot!” We also went out for a sit down dinner for out 50th anniversary in mid May. Otherwise we still self quarantine at home but for medical appointments and necessary shopping for food stuffs.

    Yesterday I took Wife to an optical shop to get new glasses for her new post-cataract eyes, and we were glad to see a sign on their front door stating that due to the Delta-varient surge, masks were required on everyone entering the doctor’s shop. No more had we sat down than an older buy came in with his nose uncovered, his mask over just his mouth.

    I politely asked him to wear his mask properly to protect people around him, Wife specifically. He answered “No, I won’t! It makes it hard to breathe and fogs my glasses!” I had an instant urge to physically attack him, but managed to stay seated. An unbelievably self-centered uncaring asshole. I told him my glasses fog up some too, but I didn’t let that keep me from protecting myself and others.

    I wanted to go off on his threat to my elderly and disabled wife, but hesitated. We’ve now talked about it, and I have her approval to do just that in any other such encounter going forward.

    It should be a jail offense for these asses to threaten other people’s health like that. Set up a tent camp with razor wire and put them where they can’t infect people trying their best to stay safe in times of plague! They can infect each other and use ivermectin to self-medicate, and use a porta-john at 3 am in the rain.

    A very stressful experience — at least her new glasses will be ready in a couple of weeks!

  74. 74.

    Bill Arnold

    @John S.:

    but powerless to get our CEO to change.

    The CEO believes that his employees have an absolute right to kill each other? Interesting. A psychopath, I presume?

  76. 76.

    EmbraceYourInnerCrone

    @MomSense: I’m so sorry.  If the test he got was a the Rapid(antigen) type and comes back negative, try to see if he can go get a PCR test.  The Rapid tests can have a pretty high false negative rate(around14%) especially if taken soon after you are exposed.  of the 5 (vaccinated) people in my cluster that got COVID the 2 who first got the Rapid test, tested negative.  When the other 3 of us who got the PCR test the same day came back with COVID we told them to go get tested again..both came back positive.  I hope he just has a cold not COVID or if COVID a very mild case…

  77. 77.

    J R in WV

    @J R in WV:

    And you all know that mister “I can’t breathe, oh no, my glasses will fog up!” is 100% not going to ever willingly take that vaccine shot  — it’s from that DEVIL JOE BIDEN!!! It will make his manly junk fall off also too !!

    I don’t know how to let go of my anger and hatred for the risks that fool was taking with other people’s health. He sat right down beside a little girl way too young to be vaccinated!!

  78. 78.

    New Deal democrat

    New COVID cases in US now down almost 25% from peak. Only 4 States in clear w/w uptrends: AK, IA, MT, and WI.  Five others in slight or equivocal uptrends: MI, MN, PA, RI, and VT.

    In particular, that cases in the Northeast as a whole have turned down slightly w/w is a very good sign that school openings have not seeded a new outbreak.

    Additionally, w/w deaths just turned down slightly. We may have peaked at just over 2000/day.

    Crossing fingers that the Delta wave continues to roll out as quickly as it rolled in. *If* it were to do so, by Halloween we could be back down to under 20,000/day.

    On another topic, that of getting people to jabs, I saw another study the other day indicating that one of the big causes of reluctance in the non-anti-vaxx demographic is lack of insurance. Hammering home to those people that the jab is free could goose vaccinations by another 5%+.

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