Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

Celebrate the fucking wins.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

The real work of an opposition party is to oppose.

So many bastards, so little time.

We won’t go back.

A norm that restrains only one side really isn’t a norm – it’s a trap.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

“I was told there would be no fact checking.”

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

I was confident that someone would point it out and thought why not me.

The current Supreme Court is a rogue court. Very dangerous.

The real work of an opposition party is to hold the people in power accountable.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

“That’s what the insurrection act is for!”

If ‘weird’ was the finish line, they ran through the tape and kept running.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

Let’s show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

The lights are all blinking red.

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75Comments

  2. 2.

    Omnes Omnibus

    I will repeat this from below:

    I’ll put down my marker here.  I think, like Another Scott, that we will pass the legislation and that it will be less than what we wanted but enough to campaign on.  I also think that it will take while to do it.  I’ll call the odds 70-30.  And, as I have been urging patience with the process, I will add that, anyone, Manchin/Sinema or the the Progressive Caucus blow it up, I will happily join the pitchfork and torches brigade.  Until then, I will hold my fire and wait for the sausage to get packaged up.

  3. 3.

    geg6

    Jim Clyburn is not whipping the skinny bill.  Which means, I’m pretty sure, that leadership is with the progressives.  Could be wrong but not whipping usually means that they are not invested in the bill.

  7. 7.

    RaflW

    Semi-relatedly, this observation is top notch.

    “Republicans are literally telling their base Democrats are part of an international, satanic conspiracy that’s stealing elections, taking people’s guns, and ruining America for profit and sport, and they’re all out there in ill-fitting uniforms running around [together].”

  8. 8.

    Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    or the the Progressive Caucus blow it up

    To be clear:  the Progressive Caucus not voting for the bi-partisan bill in the current climate where Manchin, Sinema and the Gottheimer gang have gone back on the deal that was made to couple the bi-partisan bill with the reconciliation bill is not “blowing it up”.  The Progressive Caucus already took a ~$3 trillion haircut.  This is on the Centrists.

  10. 10.

    Kropacetic

    @Omnes Omnibus: I agree with you that we will likely get something. It’s also OK not to be OK that two people decided they can be the sole arbiters of what that something will be.
    I know you were talking about taking a break. If it helps, I’ve found a good level just reading the OPs and quickly scanning comments where it interests me.
    Don’t spend the time on here I once did but it still allows me to engage a little bit and not lose the things here I love like the regular links away from my typical reading list.

  13. 13.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Kropacetic: ​
     

    It’s also OK not to be OK that two people decided they can be the sole arbiters of what that something will be.

    Sure, but that is the system we have now. To fix it, we need to win the next 2 election cycles at a minimum.

  14. 14.

    raven

    Rachel is showing the same fucking clips of an attack on Austin Den HQ over and over and over and over while she explains it to you.

  17. 17.

    bbleh

    @Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix:

    … if anything will move them, it’s the prospect of going back to their districts with the report that not a god damned piece of infrastructure will be funded because they blew up the deal that would make it happen.

    Alas, it won’t be quite that way. The Narrative is already set: it was/is/will be the progressives who blow up the deal not yet made, and the “moderates” reneging on the deal they already made has already slipped down the memory hole.

    BUT The Narrative won’t matter to their corporate masters, because the corporations won’t get their roads and bridges, and that’s really what they want, regardless of who gets the credit. So their corporate masters will be upset with them.

    AND — and this is the part I have trouble understanding — it will indeed hurt the Dems with their voters for the midterms, and the ” moderates” are the ones most at risk. It ain’t the Progressive Caucus that’s gonna lose their seats if the Reps take over the House.

    So they’ll piss off their masters AND they may well lose their seats. And I know they probably have nice corporate or lobbying sinecures to which they can transition, but in those jobs you actually gotta work to be Somebody. Being a Congress-critter, with taxpayer-funded staff, lots of attention being paid, people offering you favors right and left — it’s a sweet sweet gig, even if you do have to get on the phone and beg for money every day.

  18. 18.

    wvng

    The Liberal Redneck is great, but dead wrong about republicans always falling in line. In point of fact, they are even harder to control in the House, at least they were when they had a leader who had any interest in legislation and governing. That is why neither Boehner or Ryan could get the caucus together and kept calling votes that failed, to their endless embarrassment. That is why Boehner quit. The Tea Party movement made the caucus ungovernable, and it has only gotten worse since then.

  19. 19.

    Kropacetic

    @wvng: Yeah, the “Republicans fall in line” thing is so 2008.  Now we’ve transitioned to a loud, recalcitrant faction of Republicans making a convenient excuse for Republican leadership to do nothing.  (See also: Hastert rule)

  22. 22.

    Kropacetic

    @Kropacetic: Yes I know Hastert wasn’t speaker after 2007, but that rule really did its dirtiest work during the Obama years.

    ETA:

    @Baud: Depends how you look at it.  In a sense, I’m crediting the GOP with an ever-more sophisticated ruse to deceive the public.

    @wvng: Right, the important stuff.

  27. 27.

    Another Scott

    OO is right. :-p

    Relatedly, … TheHill:

    Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Wednesday night that the Senate had reached a deal to vote Thursday on a short-term government funding bill to avoid a shutdown.

    Under the agreement, locked in by Schumer, the Senate will vote on the stopgap continuing resolution (CR) on Thursday. Congress has until the end of the day Thursday to avert a government shutdown that would otherwise start Friday.

    “We are ready to move forward. We have an agreement on the CR, the continuing resolution to prevent a government shutdown and we should be voting on that tomorrow morning,” Schumer said from the Senate floor.

    Schumer’s announcement comes after a day of behind-the-scenes haggling over votes on potential changes to the bill. As part of the deal announced by Schumer, the Senate will first vote on three GOP amendments to the government funding measure.

    The bill funds the government until Dec. 3, as well as providing emergency money for Afghan refugee resettlement and disaster relief.

    Democrats are stripping out language, which was in the bill when it passed the House, to suspend the debt ceiling through 2022 amid a heated fight with Republicans, who are refusing to help Democrats raise the nation’s borrowing limit.

    […]

    What needs to get done will get done.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  30. 30.

    Will

    I’m a “centrist” but I’m fucking furious with Manchin and Sinema. I defended them back in May, but it’s about to be October. Fuck them. Sink it all. Let the GOP sweep 2022 and rub America’s nose in the shit they took in the living room. Rub it in so hard they never fucking forget the lesson again.

  32. 32.

    Kent

    @wvng: 100% right.   Exhibit #1:  Ted Cruz.  Exhibit #2 Rand Paul.  Those two actually make Sinema and Manchin look like amateur pikers.

  33. 33.

    Kay

    Garrett Haake
    @GarrettHaake
    · 4h
    New @Sen_JoeManchin statement is BRUTALLY critical of reconciliation. Includes phrases like “definition of fiscal insanity,” & not “reengineer the social and economic fabric of this nation or vengefully tax” — this doesn’t read at ALL like someone who is remotely on board.

    Fake Democrat who gets nothing accomplished other than running his mouth just cannot stop trashing the Democratic platform. Blah, blah, blah for 3 solid months. He delivers nothing but he never shuts up.

    Joe Manchin is going to be the star of every GOP ad in the midterms. I never again want to hear about how “defund the police” hurt Democrats. Right wing Democrats hurt Democrats. Every single time.

  37. 37.

    Raven Onthill

    I wrote this back in 2010, the last time we went through this in the context of the ACA debate. In this analysis there are some things I would now change, but the remarks about the internal coalition remain valid. Bah!

    It appears that the Democratic Party has for a long time, existed as a coalition between liberal and conservative wings (or, if you like, progressive and corporatist wings.) Since Reagan, policy on major issues—war and peace, banking, and so on—has been dominated by the conservatives, while less pressing issues (science, environmental policy, and so on) and public relations have been dominated by the liberals. In the Congress, the Senate Democratic caucus has been dominated by the conservatives while multiple House Democratic caucuses exist, with the House Democrats predominantly but not entirely liberal. The public face of the Democratic Party has been liberal, since the public is to the left of the conservatives. (See, for instance, The Progressive Majority.)

    Now, however, a major issue—health care—has come to the fore. The Democrats have split right and left, and the public has become aware that the conservatives (who do not have the support of the majority of Democrats) have been making decisions on major issues which affect their lives.

    It is difficult for me to see how the Democrats can rebuild their coalition. Its right wing and its president have betrayed it, and the party leadership will have a difficult time persuading most Democrats (who, remember, are well left of the conservatives) that the party represents them. – https://adviceunasked.blogspot.com/2010/01/democratic-party-analysis.html

    I do not see an easy solution. Given the heavy two-party bias of the US system, the two wings of the Democratic Party cannot easily split. It would be best if the Republican Party went the way of the Whigs. Perhaps that will eventually come to pass, but right now we are in a fix.

  38. 38.

    RinaX

    My mom is a loyal Dem who tends to fall in with the “Dems are weak” narrative. I find it noteworthy that she clearly understands that it’s Manchin and Simena holding things up, and that it would have been done if not for them.

    Anyway, I tend to agree that both bills will pass. However, no dice on voting for the bipartisan bill unless they pass the reconciliation bill first.

  39. 39.

    Kay

    @Raven Onthill:

    Biden’s got a big problem. Joe Manchin thinks he’s President. I suggest Biden rein him in or he’s going to look weak. He can’t let one senator present his personal vision for the country as an alternative to the real President’s agenda.

  40. 40.

    Will

    We’ve seen this story once before. Democrats fucked themselves with the ACA handwringing and they got obliterated for it. They’ve learned absolutely nothing from it. I’m a moderate, almost my entire circle is moderate to conservative Democrat. We’re all pissed at this point. Who Manchin and Sinema think they are playing to at this point is beyond me. Sink their infrastructure bill. Burn the ships, we’re all going to die here together.

  41. 41.

    Kay

    And for Manchin the timetable is months, not days or weeks. He said he would also focus on extending the child tax credit that expires at the end of the year, a strong signal that Dec. 31 may be the true deadline for passage of a reconciliation package even as congressional leaders desperately try to force action this fall.

    Schumer’s got a big problem too. Joe Manchin is not only President, he’s also setting the Senate calender. Good Lord. Talk about someone who never, ever should have been given this much power. Completely out of control.

  42. 42.

    Sure Lurkalot

    @Raven Onthill: I agree. The split is between mostly sane vs mostly insane so the usual political labels do not as much apply. It would be nice if the mostly sane party could broker a deal with some integrity.

    Buckley v Vallejo, Citizens United and subsequent rulings have sealed the deal…the books are cooked. They insure that most politicians are bought and sold to varying extent, very slim way forward to that level without freewheeling money. This is fixable, I hope we can.

  44. 44.

    Kay

    @Will:

    I agree. I don’t think Biden can let Joe Manchin direct the Biden agenda and if he wins this that’s exactly what Manchin will do. I’m listening to Manchin run against Biden. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this before. The Right wing Democrats who weakened the ACA didn’t go out and trash Obama’s entire agenda.

  45. 45.

    Mike E

    @Raven Onthill: the GQP are default obstructionists. When a D-minus coup is their vehicle of choice it’s pretty clear this is all pretty much big money’s end game. It was never about bringing repubs to any kind of alignment (or reason for that matter) because they never were about governing in the first place; it was always about bringing us little people to the breaking point so they can smash and grab with impunity. TFG’s appeal to the magas was how brazenly he did all this and that’s what passes for elite branding in Repub World. I hate to say this but getting the skinny bill and the reconciliation measure passed means very little when these hoodlums are running loose to game the system seemingly at will.

     

    tl;dr…we can’t have nice things with arsonists all over the place, sadly.

  46. 46.

    Anyway

    @zhena gogolia:

    “Where am I? Right here in front of the elevator” — that is looney tunes-speak. Scary that it’s a powerful senator saying that. That’s her level of seriousness?! GTFO.

  47. 47.

    James E Powell

    I am exhausted from thinking & talking about Sinema, Manchin, and this whole mishegas. I made my calls. People are working on it. I’ve accepted that I will hate whatever they come up with. But I’m done talking about it until they’re done doing it.

  49. 49.

    Anyway

    Don’t understand people coming to a lefty political blog to complain that there are too many posts about, gasp, politics!

  50. 50.

    Geminid

    @Raven Onthill: This wrangle is not an existential fight between two wings of the Democratic party, unless Democrats want to make it one. Ninety per cent or more of House Democratic Caucus members are on the same page. It’s really just two out of 50 Democratic Senators who are jamming things. This is a numbers problem, not an ideological one.

    Personally, I’d like to see every dollar of the $3.5 trillion human infrastructure bill authorized. But before Warnock and Ossoff eked out victories in the Georgia Senate runoffs, I had no expectation that we would get one dollar of that kind of funding out of this Congress. So I’m not getting strung out if we only get $1.7 trillion or even less.

    And I’ve gotta say, all this disparagement of the physical infrastructure bill I’ve heard today, and all the threats of staying home next election, seem to me to be just so much privileged middle class whining.

  51. 51.

    LeftCoastYankee

    IIRC the Infrastructure bill has passed in the Senate, and is in the House’s “court” to vote on, but no one has voted on the reconciliation bill yet.

    If this is the case, why can’t the House pass the Reconciliation bill (and sit on the Infrastructure bill) and force the “Look at Me Caucus” in the Senate to go on record voting “no”.

    Or combine into some version of “this is what all the other Dems approve except you 2 clowns”….Push it back on them, and sweat them until they break.  Neither is that bright or brave.​​​

  52. 52.

    Procopius

    @bbleh:

    AND — and this is the part I have trouble understanding — it will indeed hurt the Dems with their voters for the midterms, and the ” moderates” are the ones most at risk. It ain’t the Progressive Caucus that’s gonna lose their seats if the Reps take over the House.

    This is above my pay grade, but I saw an assertion a few days ago that the conservative Democrats (centrists?) who are participating in this are all from very safe Blue districts, and don’t have to fear losing their seats. I’m a little dubious about that, but we see the Republicans doing stuff all the time that harms their voters, and they rarely get in trouble for it. If they lose their seats it’s usually for some cult rule. Certainly Republicans never get in trouble for shutting the government down. A lot of other Democrats, who are loyally supporting the President will be hurt, though.

  53. 53.

    mvr

    What makes this so frustratingly hard to think through is that it isn’t obvious what these two idiots actually expect to get out of this process. If we could sus out their actual interests we could figure out how to get where we need to be. But they just seem crazy, stupid or both. Neither one seems to have a future unless they get something but I don’t know what something they are trying to get.

    Gave Sinema money in 2018 and now realize I wasted it.

  54. 54.

    Redshift

    I think the important point that can get lost is that voting down the bipartisan bill isn’t “blowing up the whole thing.” If it’s not going to pass, it’s guaranteed that the necessary processes will be followed so it can be brought up again.

    The original deal was that if the Senate passed the reconciliation bill, the House would pass the bipartisan bill. The obstructionists said we don’t wanna, and got Pelosi to agree to schedule a vote in the bipartisan bill. But it wasn’t an agreement to pass the bill. So if there isn’t some kind of agreement, they’ll get their vote, and it will get voted down. That demonstrates seriousness, not anger or a desire to blow it as up.

    Then the obstructionists can decide whether to actually negotiate or continue posturing and sink the whole thing.

  55. 55.

    Teresa

    White Dems have a very bad habit of throwing the base under the bus.  They have done it every damn time for my entire life.  That’s been over a half century.  I’m to the point that I don’t believe most white men and women have the skill sets to lead people.  Too many are selfish and self centered.

  57. 57.

    Redshift

    @mvr: My assumption is always that is the objections are nonsensical and they won’t give a clear counter-offer, it means they don’t want to admit what they actually want and why. Doesn’t tell you what it is, but it’s better than thinking they must be crazy or stupid and trying to guess which.

  59. 59.

    Kay

    @Procopius:

    I don’t understand why they’re not better at the politics. If you said to most Democrats “you won’t get what you want but a smaller bill or no deal will be either a wash or beneficial politically” they would be less despondent. But they don’t get either. They get shitty policy AND shitty politics. They take a huge political hit and also get nothing they wanted. That’s what baffles and enrages them.

    Most Democrats wanted to get out of Afghanistan, so they didn’t mind Biden taking a political hit on it. With this shitshow they won’t get the policy they want and they’ll also get killed in the midterms.

  60. 60.

    Chetan Murthy

    @mvr:

    Gave Sinema money in 2018 and now realize I wasted it.

    I did, too.  Hell, I gave the Federal limit, I thought it was that important.  And yeah, like you I feel a little cheated.  But OTOH, we got the covid relief, and control of the Senate (for appointments, including judges).  I went and looked ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_acts_of_the_117th_United_States_Congress#Public_laws ) and yeah, it’s paltry, but it’s not nothing.

    I’m angry and frustrated, too.  But we didn’t get nothing.

  61. 61.

    Kent

    @Procopius: Noxious Congressmen in blue districts have been successfully primary’ed.  Most recently in IL when Dan Lipinski was tossed out on his ass.  But also AOC and  Cori Bush who took out aging opponents, although they weren’t really centrists, just old guys

    I don’t think anyone considers AZ or WV to be safe Democratic states if we are talking about Sinema and Manchin.

  63. 63.

    Raven Onthill

    @Geminid: You’re assuming that Manchin and Sinema and the House conservative Democrats don’t have silent supporters; I don’t think that’s true. Manchin and Sinema are the leaders, as much as the leadership is not their funders, but there are other Senators like Coons who would be happy to see the reconciliation bill go down to defeat. Even in its reduced form, it would gore the oxen of many wealthy and corrupt people and institutions.

    To me, it looks like the funders of the conservative wing entirely underestimated Pelosi, Biden, and Schumer, as well as the temper of the public. They thought they could quietly kill any significant reforms before they got to a vote. Now that a vote will be taken, they have shifted to simple obstruction.

    If this goes down, well, what do you think the chances of the Democrats holding the House in 2022 are?

  65. 65.

    Cameron

    @Kay: He doesn’t like the “reengineering?” I take it he’s not down with the New Deal or the GI Bill or the Great Society, either, then. Joe can go fuck himself with a flensing spade.

  67. 67.

    Geminid

    @Kent: Arizona is certainly not a safe Democratic state. But Joe Biden and Mark Kelly ran as regular Democrats and won. They had the highest total vote of any Democrats ever. So it doesn’t seem like a Democrat needs to pursue a triangulating centrist strategy to win the state. I suspect a moderate  Democrat like Phoenix congressman Greg Stanton could win in 2024 if Sinema could, and might even have a better shot. But Arizona Democrats have to get Mark Kelly reelected next year before they put energy into the Sinema problem.

    Going into last year’s election, Arizona registrations were 35% Republican, 32% Democrat, and 31.7% Independent. So Republicans have an edge, although Democrats have increased their share of voters enough to finally surpass Independents. A coalition of unions and Latino community organizations* had a campaign to register and mobilize Arizona Latinos last year. I expect they will continue.

    As for West Virginia, Joe Manchin may well be their last Democratic Senator this century. He is a throwback, a kind of Southern Democrat dinosaur in one of the reddest states in the country.

    *See “Inside the Machine to Turn Out the Latino Vote- and turn Arizona Blue,” Politico, November 1, 2020.

  68. 68.

    Kay

    @Cameron:

    Democrats think Democrats are passing the Republican’s infrastructure bill – the payback for that, the part that was supposed to help Democrats politically, was the reconciliation package.

    You can’t tell them they don’t get anything they want and they will also lose elections. You can’t manage legislation in a way that offers a political benefit to Republicans and also doesn’t advance any of the D base policy goals. They have to get something out of this. Give them smart politics and shitty policy – they’ll accept that- but you have to give them something. That’s what killed base enthusiasm with the health care bill- they got creamed politically AND they didn’t get anything they wanted on policy.

    If it’s going to be Joe Manchin’s agenda at least sell the fucking thing. Manchin doesn’t even care about the infratsructure bill All he talks about is cutting the child tax credit. The problem with Right wing Democratic policy is there is no political constituency for it.

  70. 70.

    Geminid

    @Raven Onthill: I’m sure Manchin has allies. My own Senator Mark Warner may be one of them, Angus King of Maine would be another. But they’re allies only up to a point. I think Warner wants higher taxes, and I bet King does too. Neither probably want the whole $3.5 trillion reconciliation package, and there they might have company in Hassan (NH) and Cortez-Masto (NV), who face tough elections next year. And I bet those two, and Raphael Warnock and Mark Kelly, who also face tough election, would a hell of a lot rather have a physical infrastructure  bill and no reconciliation bill than no bill at all. And I think Democrats who say we are better off with no bill than one just do not have their feet on the ground.

    I keep hearing about the voters who will not come out in 2022 and 2024 if the Democrats cannot pass a good reconcilation bill. Who are these voters? Do you know any? They sound like the same ones people said would only come out for a “bold progressive,” and then did not come out for Sanders last year.

    I have friends who have never been satisfied that the Democratic party is liberal enough, and they have never not voted for the Democratic Congressional or Presidential nominee. How and why will this controversy be some watershed in Democratic allegience? There are people who will try to make it so, but the ones trying the hardest will not be Democrats anyway.

  71. 71.

    Geminid

    @Kay: I’m a Democrat, and I don’t think we’re passing the Republican’s infrastructure bill. I know it will help people in my community, and it will help people in yours.

    And I think it will help Tim Ryan in next year’s Ohio Senate race. But you live in Ohio, and are a perceptive observer of your state’s politics. What do you think?

  72. 72.

    Raven Onthill

    @Geminid: The reconciliation bill contains most of Biden’s very popular agenda. As with the ACA, it will probably be better to have something than nothing. But also as with the ACA, it will take time for people to appreciate the something, and that is time we do not have.

    If Biden and the Democrats can deliver, it might make a difference in 2022. It is usual for the party which holds the Presidency to lose seats in the House at midterms. Enough lost seats, also as happened with the ACA, and the Republicans take control of the House, and that will be the end of any Democratic agenda.

  73. 73.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Omnes Omnibus: ​
     

    I’ll put down my marker here. I think, like Another Scott, that we will pass the legislation and that it will be less than what we wanted but enough to campaign on. I also think that it will take while to do it. I’ll call the odds 70-30. And, as I have been urging patience with the process, I will add that, anyone, Manchin/Sinema or the the Progressive Caucus blow it up, I will happily join the pitchfork and torches brigade. Until then, I will hold my fire and wait for the sausage to get packaged up.

    You know what? Even if you and Another Scott are right, and everything’s going to work out well enough in the end, it’s fucking unforgivable of Manchin and Sinema to play games like this with the future of both this nation and the world – given that this may be our last best chance to pass legislation with a chance to address climate change.

    All I want is reason to hope that the world doesn’t burn up before my 14 year old reaches retirement age, and these fuckers are publicly playing with matches and thinking there’s nothing wrong with that. Don’t tell me not to be pissed.

  74. 74.

    Gvg

    @Kay: The President has never controlled Senators. He isn’t the boss of them and the Constitution specifically intended he not be. This has always been the case including when republicans controlled. There have always been Senators doing things Presidents didn’t like. Our government design didn’t want a lockstep kind of efficiency, and there have been times recently when that saved us.

    it makes us impatient but that is just too bad. Mind you I am not happy either, it is just this is not Biden’s fault or even responsibility. Not only that, it will happen again and then keep happening with the next President.

  75. 75.

    J R in WV

    @mvr: ​
     

    Gave Sinema money in 2018 and now realize I wasted it.

    Me too. Now I’m thinking about “moving” to the little house in AZ so I can vote against Sinema in her next primary.

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