For those who won’t take the vaccine because they don’t trust or understand how it works.
A fully loaded 747 weighs about 900,000lbs and stays in the sky.
Do you understand how?
Neither do I.Listen to and believe in the experts.#VaccinationDrive
— Troy Westwood (@TroyWestwood) September 29, 2021
New @UCLA study of Americans: "compared w/pre-#pandemic times, they are now more likely to be growing & preparing their own food, conserving resources, demonstrating less interest in financial wealth & showing greater appreciation for their elders."
????https://t.co/uDpa0tfpwb— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) September 30, 2021
People were stunned when 100,000 lives were claimed by the pandemic. On 9/30/21 the toll broke the 700,000 mark. It is the most devastating public health tragedy in American history. https://t.co/m7xBrAR9Bq
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) October 1, 2021
We're at 56% US total population fully vaccinated.
We need to get to at least 75% to achieve containment, as has been determined by at least 12 countries (w/ caveats and contingencies)https://t.co/B7SkXBv0X7
by @alexnazaryan @YahooNews pic.twitter.com/E4U2nPyZdz— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) September 30, 2021
"When Tyson Foods announced on Aug. 3 that it would require coronavirus vaccines for all 120,000 of its U.S. employees… less than half its work force was inoculated.
Tyson has now reached a 91 percent vaccination rate for its work force."https://t.co/R1oDhVQjl3
— Rachel Maddow MSNBC (@maddow) September 30, 2021
I keep hearing that chastising people for not getting vaccinated merely pushes them away. Maybe so. But I do think that, in life in general, sometimes people have to be made aware that everyone else is completely fed up with them, in order to prompt any kind of response.
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 30, 2021
“It is an assumption that it’s okay to get infected and get mild and moderate disease, as long as you don’t wind up in the hospital and die. I have to be honest: I reject that,” Anthony Fauci says. #TAF21 https://t.co/rEeWZWqPTI pic.twitter.com/0n9PBFSU31
— The Atlantic (@TheAtlantic) September 28, 2021
======
After struggling to get vaccination programs up and running, countries in Asia are speeding ahead of the United States, moving toward fully vaccinating their populations & lifting hopes of a more permanent return to normality https://t.co/d1Zp5va3AQ
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) September 30, 2021
India's Serum Institute to boost vaccine exports gradually, report says https://t.co/QxAh9dwwBX pic.twitter.com/RbaswwOtS5
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2021
Malaysia posts record monthly COVID-19 deaths as authorities cite backlog https://t.co/PvdVVDgyz2 pic.twitter.com/K8Z1pS2ysw
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2021
Malaysia has given conditional approval for a COVID-19 vaccine made by China's Sinovac to be used on young people aged between 12 and 17 https://t.co/ycYl5DwAtP
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2021
Tokyo’s train stations were packed with commuters Friday morning as Japan fully came out of a coronavirus state of emergency for the first time in more than six months. https://t.co/DhfU76XJOM
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 1, 2021
S.Korea extends social distancing curbs as COVID-19 cases rise in Seoul https://t.co/fBjySCEB95 pic.twitter.com/xUzYuR8o81
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2021
yep. this is the covid picture from the last 28 days. although the total number of cases has risen, the severity of the disease has not BECAUSE VACCINES https://t.co/nlkBUv0SsX pic.twitter.com/kCRdZdla44
— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) September 30, 2021
Sri Lanka has lifted a six-week national lockdown as COVID-19 cases and deaths decline but movement restrictions remain in place. The lockdown was imposed Aug 20 and then extended three times. https://t.co/GtsQfEOt9y
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 1, 2021
Philippines loosens coronavirus curbs in capital region https://t.co/YjrsOfZNfM pic.twitter.com/GGQZSk56xX
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2021
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced an 18-month ban on Australians traveling abroad will be lifted from November, easing one of the toughest COVID-19 restrictions imposed globally https://t.co/jmNxjX8g9Q pic.twitter.com/VBv8KPuCsn
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2021
New Zealand's Auckland logs more Delta cases ahead of key decision on restrictions https://t.co/TPXWMjwgtg pic.twitter.com/1dx3K33tMi
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2021
⚡ Russia on Friday recorded its highest coronavirus death toll for a fourth day running with 887 fatalities https://t.co/toMaDMClzB
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) October 1, 2021
Romania introduces restrictions to stem COVID-19 case rise, boost vaccine intakes https://t.co/NjxSqJDpN8 pic.twitter.com/6woMfn3IFg
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2021
More than 50 countries, most of them in Africa, have missed the WHO target for 10% of their populations to be fully vaccinated against Covid-19 by the end of September https://t.co/2uy6NJJwMs
— Peter Mwai (@MwaiPetrov) October 1, 2021
S.African president Ramaphosa eases COVID-19 restrictions to lowest level https://t.co/L6L8MqUJW6 pic.twitter.com/xow96alleY
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2021
======
Low-dose mRNA vaccination is less reactogenic and may be useful for dose-sparing strategies – a new study in @ScienceMagazine shows that a low dose of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine generates a robust immune response, similar to that of natural infection. https://t.co/2wPUKyJNGD
— Nature Medicine (@NatureMedicine) September 30, 2021
If you got Moderna, can you boost with Pfizer? Apparently, there's all sorts of vaccine anarchy going on https://t.co/NfhnUKn1VB
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) September 30, 2021
Don’t skip your flu shot this year:
A new modeling study in JID suggests that once measures to control COVID-19 are relaxed, potentially large outbreaks of influenza may occur, highlighting the need for health systems to prepare & for high rates of influenza vaccination.
?: https://t.co/uP5PRWbYQt #IDSAJournals pic.twitter.com/4ZpYNK6xNN
— IDSA (@IDSAInfo) September 30, 2021
3 key causes of medical misinformation are making the pandemic tougher to fight, according to a report at the annual meeting of the Infectious Diseases Society of America:
-Conspiracies
-Fake experts peddling fake cures
-Fearmongers triggering fear/outrage https://t.co/kCv3Zy4nE7 pic.twitter.com/1A3HqKEcvw— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) October 1, 2021
======
A group representing school board members around the country has asked President Joe Biden for federal assistance to investigate and stop threats made over policies including mask mandates. https://t.co/O4Ro12v9bk
— The Associated Press (@AP) September 30, 2021
Rural Americans are dying of covid at twice the rate of their urban counterparts — a divide likely to widen as access to medical care shrinks for a population that's older, sicker, heavier, poorer and less vaccinated.
?: @LaurenWeberHP https://t.co/FoLWgPTBAs
— Kaiser Health News (@KHNews) September 30, 2021
My mom has worked in Idaho hospitals and healthcare clinics for about two decades – it’s this bad and much worse. There are no beds. People are dying at home with nowhere to be treated. pic.twitter.com/xkx3TcJMKh
— Blake Herzinger (@BDHerzinger) September 30, 2021
West Virginia was a vaccine success story. Now it’s a covid hot spot. Health officials there say they've hit a wall of vaccine resistance & misinformation. At its current pace, the state won't hit the 70% vaccination threshold until Oct. 2022 https://t.co/12YCr8rJlE
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) September 30, 2021
During this year’s surge fueled by the delta variant, California counties that voted heavily for Trump in the November election saw higher death rates than their more Democratic counterparts — a trend mirrored on the national level, dubbed “red COVID.”https://t.co/5kvL61ker5
— San Francisco Chronicle (@sfchronicle) September 30, 2021
Kaiser details consequences for workers who flout COVID-19 vaccine mandate, as more holdouts relent https://t.co/DzP7pLeYop
— Arthur Caplan (@ArthurCaplan) September 30, 2021
On The Road – frosty – Grand Staircase – Escalante National Monument
Baud
I like the term “red covid.”
NotMax
Brutal month.
YY_Sima Qian
On 9/30 China reported 10 new domestic confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic) & 0 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Fujian Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 12 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 306 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases.
Heilongjiang Province reported 10 new domestic confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic). There currently are 84 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Yunnan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 9 active domestic confirmed & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province, all at Ruili in Dehong Prefecture.
At Henan Province there currently are 7 active domestic confirmed cases remaining, all at Shangqiu.
Imported Cases
On 9/30, China reported 24 new imported confirmed cases (5 previously asymptomatic), 25 imported asymptomatic cases, 2 imported suspect cases:
Overall in China, 50 confirmed cases recovered (37 imported), 14 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (all imported) & 6 were reclassified as confirmed cases (5 imported), & 325 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 892 active confirmed cases in the country (491 imported), 4 in serious condition (2 imported), 359 active asymptomatic cases (348 imported), 1 suspect case (imported). 28,376 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 9/30, 2,211.452M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 2.531M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 10/1, Hong Kong reported 4 new positive cases, all imported (from the Philippines & Pakistan, all had been fully vaccinated).
different-church-lady
Now let’s be fair here: they don’t understand how the virus works either.
lowtechcyclist
@Baud:
Especially given how TFG was OK with Covid running wild last year because it hit blue states really hard at first.
We’ve done what we could for the red parts of the country. We gave ’em masks, social distancing guidelines, and several extremely effective vaccines. And they turned up their noses at it all.
You can lead a horse or a MAGAt to water, but the MAGAt would rather steal the horse’s dewormer.
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
Agreed. This is where our fight against “only Dems have agency” gets put to the test.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 11,889 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 2,257,584 cases. It also reports 192 new deaths as of midnight, for a cumulative total of 26,335 deaths – 1.17% of the cumulative reported total, 1.26% of resolved cases.
Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.90.
850 confirmed cases are in ICU, 380 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 15,891 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,070,715 patients recovered – 91.7% of the cumulative reported total.
14 new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 5,491 clusters. 1,068 clusters are currently active; 4,423 clusters are now inactive.
11,875 new cases today are local infections. Sarawak reports 2,412 local cases: 49 in clusters, 1,121 close-contact screenings, and 1,242 other screenings.
Selangor reports 1,565 local cases: 69 in clusters, 917 close-contact screenings, and 580 other screenings. Johor reports 1,217 cases: 149 in clusters, 559 close-contact screenings, and 509 other screenings.
Perak reports 959 cases: 126 in clusters, 407 close-contact screenings, and 426 other screenings.
Sabah reports 872 cases: 12 in clusters, 469 close-contact screenings, and 391 other screenings. Kelantan reports 858 cases: 19 in clusters, 562 close-contact screenings, and 277 other screenings. Pahang reports 827 local cases: 335 in clusters, 342 close-contact screenings, and 150 other screenings.
Penang reports 778 local cases: nine in clusters, 275 close-contact screenings, and 494 other screenings. Kedah reports 710 cases: 24 in clusters, 401 close-contact screenings, and 285 other screenings.
Terengganu reports 699 cases: 524 close-contact screenings and 175 other screenings.
Melaka reports 378 cases: 34 in clusters, 199 close-contact screenings, and 145 other screenings.
Kuala Lumpur reports 284 local cases: seven in clusters, 122 close-contact screenings, and 155 other screenings.
Negeri Sembilan reports 197 cases: 36 in clusters, 102 close-contact screenings, and 59 other screenings.
Perlis reports 81 cases: 16 close-contact screenings and 65 other screenings. Putrajaya reports 36 cases: 22 close-contact screenings and 14 other screenings. Labuan reports two cases, both found in other screenings.
14 new cases today are imported: five in Kuala Lumpur, four in Pahang, three in Selangor, one in Sarawak, and one in Penang.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 329,163 doses of vaccine on 30th September: 167,443 first doses and 161,720 second doses. As of midnight yesterday, the cumulative total is 43,696,743 doses administered: 23,540,977 first doses and 20,255,398 second doses. 72.1% of the population have received their first dose, while 62.0% are now fully vaccinated.
New Deal democrat
While the average number of new cases continues to decline, now down 1/3rd from the peak one month ago, the number of States in uptrends has expanded slightly, as NM and ID have slight renewed uptrends. AK, ND, ME, MI, MN and NH are also trending higher.
With the exception of NM, all of these States are on the northern border. Meanwhile all of the hard hit States in the South have trended down dramatically. Almost all are in the lower half for new cases, and LA is now in the bottom 10. It seems clear that Delta is following where indoor activities are increasing (and most – but not all – are poorly vaccinated red States).
On the *relatively* bright side, deaths have declined to about 1800. Still, the Delta wave even at present levels is worse than summer 2020’s wave was at its worst.
And we’re never going to hit Topol’s target for vaccinations without widespread employer and school vaccine mandates, and probably a mandate for interstate travel as well.
rikyrah
I am on my way back to work this morning. My test was NEGATIVE.
rikyrah
Peanut went back to school yesterday. I asked her why she was able to return to school so soon. She said that the kids who came back were all who were VACCINATED and had negative tests.
Out of a room of 30, guess how many were in class?
NINE
PHUCKING NINE??
THE school shouldn’t allow the rest of them back without proof of vaccination ?
All 12-17 year olds – the vaccine mandate should have already been issued ??
Baud
@rikyrah:
?
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
1. We got the full Pfizer sequence a few months after getting the full Moderna sequence – we simply lied. No ill effects, and I didn’t have the same reaction I had to the second Moderna jab. I felt no guilt because I wasn’t taking a dose that people around Kentucky were clamoring for – it was literally a same day appointment.
2. Found out yesterday that the guy who owned the music store where I get my guitar lessons died of COVID complications (thrown clot) about a month after testing positive. He was 37, probably unvaccinated (his mother was unsure – he was stubbornly private) and had been complaining a lot about extreme fatigue and pain for the week before he died. Dropped dead in his car at a convenience store/gas station – he’d gotten an energy drink, a bag of chips and $30 dollars worth of gas, was on his way to meet some woman. His final text was something along the lines of “I’m getting gas and will be there in five minutes. I feel funny right now – my heart rate is 188”. Girl in the store knew him and thought it was odd that he was sleeping with the car running, but he’d mentioned how tired he was and figured he needed a break (plus he had tinted windows and she couldn’t see him well. Got busy for a couple of hours and only then hit the panic button.
ETA – his mom is at her wits’ end – she isn’t a musician, doesn’t know how to price anything, and her instructors are bolting with the clients.
Baud
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
Damn.
dr. bloor
What a dimwit. Everybody knows the plane flies because PraYeR wARrioRs ask Jesus to keep it from falling.
Lacuna Synecdoche
Prior to the Covid pandemic, I had always read that herd immunity didn’t kick in until 90-95% immunity was reached. So when the Trump administration was bandying about that herd immunity could kick in at 70%, I thought it was bullshit, and I still do.
So, I’m not really buying that we can reach an acceptable level of containment at 75% either. Maybe it’s possible. I hope it is. But I suspect we’ll need something on the order of 80-88% to reach a maybe acceptable level of containment that’s not quite herd immunity.
But honestly, I’m not convinced that there is an acceptable level of containment. As long as the virus is circulating, it’ll be mutating – so I’m not sure that anything less than herd immunity will ultimately be acceptable.
Rusty
On Wednesday a horde of anti-vax/anti-mask protesters shut down the executive meeting here in New Hampshire. (The executive committee is the governor and other state wide elected officials that make major state government decisions). One agenda item was accepting federal money to promote vaccinations in the state. We lag the vaccination rates of all the surrounding states of VT, MA and ME. The ant-vax crazies don’t want the state to take the money. The protesters were threatening the state workers in attendance (the committee members had taken off earlier). The committee is all Republicans (the entire state government is controlled by the Republicans. NH also voted for Biden and both congresswomen and US senators are Dems. Go figure.) The committee earlier tabled taking the money over “concerns”. The state education department has been threatening schools that they can’t go remote learning no matter what happens and the state legislature took away public health powers from the governor. Now they are upset that the anti-vax and anti-mask crowd are threatening them. Reap what you sow, reap what you sow.
BC in Illinois
700,000 people. With 700,000 families.
And a countless number of friends, people who care . . . about 700,000 people.
I can’t imagine it all. But I can imagine one.
And the thing is, we can work together to make it stop. We actually can. Or at least, we could.
+ + +
I think I about the death of my brother, just over a year ago, and the sadness comes back.
I think about people fighting against any response to the spread of the virus, and the anger comes back.
Soprano2
@Rusty: I saw that. I don’t understand why they didn’t arrest the people who interrupted the meeting and threatened the board members. They should, if they kept getting arrested they might stop it eventually.
Soprano2
@BC in Illinois: What really makes me crazy about all the death now is that it’s completely avoidable and unnecessary! A year ago, when your brother died, it was tragic, but there wasn’t anything that could help because Covid was so new and doctors were still figuring out how to treat people for it. Now, we have vaccines that robustly protect us against hospitalization and death from Covid, so all those people shouldn’t be dying! There are children who are orphans who shouldn’t be, but their parents were too stubborn to get vaccinated and prevent that from happening.
I’m so sorry about your brother, the first year is really hard. After a loss like that it must be particularly maddening to watch all of these Covidiots refuse the vaccine.
Soprano2
Inconvenience works too, I’m seeing yet another full face in the office today. It’s a woman who was wearing a mask because of our policy that the unvaccinated have to wear them in the office. I assume she decided to get vaccinated rather than continue having to mask.
Another Scott
@Lacuna Synecdoche: The herd immunity number is just math. If you know the effective reproduction rate (R) out in the community, then the herd immunity number is: HE(%) = (1 – (1/R)) x 100
So, if R = 3, then HE = 66.7%. If R = 2, then HE = 50%.
What complicates it is R is affected by human behavior – masks, distancing, vaccination, etc., but the bigger R is, the higher HE needs to be. I believe that the original R was around 3 while Delta’s R is estimated to be around 8 these days, so HE = 87.5%…
Cheers,
Scott.
Lacuna Synecdoche
SF Chron via Anne Laurie @ Top:
“red COVID”?
How about “Fox Flu”?
Nelle
I picked up my four year old granddaughter from daycare last week. A whole classroom of kids wearing masks. On the way home, i commented on it. With exaggerated patience, she said, “Grandma, that’s how we keep each other safe.” I could hear the “duh” in her tone. Let the children lead us, in this, at least.
Carlo
““It is an assumption that it’s okay to get infected and get mild and moderate disease, as long as you don’t wind up in the hospital and die. I have to be honest: I reject that,” Anthony Fauci says”
I love Tony Fauci, but this may be the most idiotic public statement that he’s made since the pandemic began.
Risk management is about balancing costs and benefits, which is not possible if panic drives you to focus only on costs. This–panic over Delta– is the dynamic apparently what is driving the Biden administration’s decision on boosters.
The full cost-benefit analysis goes like this:
———
(1) BOOSTERS ONLY FOR IMMUNOCOMPROMISED AND ELDERLY (the VRBPAC recommendation)
Cost: Millions of teachers/HCW etc will develop mild COVID-19
Benefit: Tens of millions of mRNA vaccine doses available for export immediately, where they can immediately start lowering the chances of a true vaccine-escape variant (unlike Delta) that can out-transmit Delta.
———
(2) BOOSTERS FOR THE ABOVE PLUS TEACHERS, “FRONT-LINE” WORKERS (and pretty much any one else who feels validated in getting one now, the FDA/CDC decision)
Cost: More delay in slowing the global progress of the viral genome evolution.
Benefit: Fewer breakthrough COVID cases in the next few months, after which there is no data to suggest whether another round of boosters may be required to get the same, mild protection.
——–
Take another look at the (2) cost. This is a catastrophe, because the chances at mutation grow exponentially with time, so being late vastly increases the chances of a new fast-moving variant showing up that defeats vaccine immunity altogether. Last year’s South African variant did precisely that — in a sense we are lucky that Delta spreads so fast, because it outcompetes more dangerous variants — so far. But it won’t necessarily stay that way. For the sake of preventing a few months worth of mild COVID-19 (all we can say boosters may do at the moment), you would risk that outcome by choosing (2)? The Biden administration really fucked up big time.
And Fauci presumably knows all thIs, or ought to. What is he playing at?
Lacuna Synecdoche
Another Scott:
And there’s the rub. Not only is R affected by human behavior, it’s also affected by mutations, weather, population density, and so on.
The truth is – while we sometimes make good, educated guesses as to R – we seldom really know what R is/was until well after the fact. And I suspect it seldom gets calculated unless R is high enough to cause an epidemic, or if the disease itself is particularly lethal.
Robert Sneddon
Scotland — 2,693 new cases reported today. The test positivity rate is 7.2%. There were 34 new deaths reported overnight. ICU bed occupancy numbers are 65, down nine from yesterday while hospitalisations are 983, down 15.
There were over 8,000 vaccinations carried out in Scotland yesterday (Thursday) with about 55% of these being first vaccinations. 91.4% of 16+ adults are now vaccinated with their first dose and 84.4% are fully vaccinated. 71.6% of 16 and 17-year-olds have now received their first vaccination, up 0.2% from yesterday. 15.2% of 12-15 year olds have now received their first vaccination, up 1.5% from yesterday.
Again most of the new vaccinations appear to be happening in children between 12 and 17 years old. The number of Young Immortals aged 18 through 40 still to receive even their first dose of vaccine remains stubbornly high although systematic opposition to vaccines doesn’t seem to be the main driver of the stalled takeup, it’s more like “it can’t happen to me” or “I’ll just get over it if I do catch it.”
Lacuna Synecdoche
@Carlo:
Long Covid.
Yes, we all take risks, and getting through this pandemic has been a exercise in balancing risk.
That said, I’m with Fauci on this one. Even people with mild-moderate cases have suffered Long Covid. With that still on the table, any case of Covid is a risk we should continue trying to prevent – with continued masking. social distancing, etc. – until we have vaccines that generate a stronger neutralizing response, or, barring that, effective treatments for Long Covid.
Just my opinion. YMMV.
Robert Sneddon
Dr. Fauci isn’t playing. He’s taking advice from people who have spent decades researching and learning about vaccines, infection rates, epidemics, modelling and a dozen other measurable factors and then he gets up at a podium in front of the cameras and the Press and repeats what those hoity-toity ‘experts’ have told him to say.
You are posting your vague guesses and speculations on the internet.
No contest.
Suzanne
I am in DC with SuzMom. We went to the National Mall last night and saw the Covid Memorial with the flags. I dedicated two.
Sigh.
Robert Sneddon
Error bars. Every time I’ve seen a credible report for the R (replication) value of the spread of this disease, whatever variant, it’s always been a range, not an absolute number. The Delta variant of the SARS-nCoV-2 virus supposedly has an R value of between 3 and 6 but I’ve seen other numbers from various credible sources at different times.
R can be determined more precisely by accumulating test result numbers within a population day on day, week on week but that depends on, as you say, the weather, population density, vaccination levels and a host of other factors. It’s clear that the Delta variant spreads more easily than previous variants, that’s why it became the dominant strain pretty much everywhere. Delta’s calculated R number is more of an indicator of how dangerous it is, not a precise definition of how much it will spread.
MattF
Some excellent news— an oral anti-viral medication is effective against COVID. Derek Lowe’s take is here.
The Pale Scot
@lowtechcyclist:
Two boats an a helicopter.
I don’t see how one of these idiots doesn’t shoot a nurse. When that happens what to do? Deploying the national guard won’t work because those idiots are members. I don’t see any useful solution other then setting up units for the unvaccinated and have them treated by unvaccinated medicos with a horse paste and barbiturate cocktail.
You can’t fix stupid, especially enthusiastically, willfully stupid.
As what Italian journalist Selvaggia Lucarelli’s post on Instagram, misattributed to Macron said.
“I no longer have any intention of sacrificing my life, my time, my freedom and the adolescence of my daughters, as well as their right to study properly, for those who refuse to be vaccinated. This time you stay at home, not us,”
Children are loosing their childhoods, olds are wasting their last good years.
At the end a memorial dedicated to the Covidiots can be raised, then carted to Southern swamp to be dumped along with all the Confederate statues
Another Scott
@Carlo: With respect, in the rest of the short video clip, he said that in the context of talking about possible waning immunity after vaccination and whether people should get a booster, and if so who and when. His next-ish sentence was that his job as a physician and researcher is to keep people from getting infected. He’s not talking about cost-benefit analysis. Like it or not, people getting boosters in the US has little or nothing to do with increased vaccination elsewhere. And given that SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus, it’s my understanding that it’s nearly universally agreed among researchers that boosters are expected to be required (just from the nature of the virus). The question now is: what is the evidence for who and when and what circumstances for boosters?
We know what lack of vaccination looks like in the USA. It’s horrible and 700,000+ people died and continue to die as a result. We’ve got less than 5% of the world’s population, but dominate the official death counts. Evidence is that boosters help prevent waning immunity in the elderly right now. We expect boosters are going to be needed for everyone. We need to continue rolling out mandates and making vaccination available around the clock everywhere people are because Delta is such a disaster here. And while we’re doing that, we also need to be doing even more to give vaccine and everything required for inoculation to countries around the world.
Fauci has been doing world-leading infectious disease research for 40+ years. He’s led the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease since 1984. His h-index is a stratospheric 227. He knows what he’s talking about, even if the Twitter-ized sound bites of today’s world occasionally create confusion.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
New Deal democrat
@Robert Sneddon:
A case can be made that the Young Immortals are taking (from their point of view) an acceptable risk.
According to the CDC’s official site, as of September 22, of over 670,000 COVID deaths in the US, only 22,409 were in the 19-44 age group, and only 544 were age 18 or younger.
Now, if taking the vaccine is essentially risk-less, obviously they still ought to do it. But if everybody over age 45 were vaccinated, COVID would be no worse than the seasonal flu. Of course, in the US there are 70 million Covidiots (and maybe there are a proportionate number in the UK?), so that’s not a viable scenario.
The Pale Scot
@Lacuna Synecdoche:
“Fox Flu”
Thumbs up, but needs more umphh.
How about Murdockulosis? Or Murdock Hemorrhagic Fever? Tucker Dipsydoodleitis? Respiratory Tuckrosis of the lungs?
This needs work, but there’s an effective meme in there somewhere
Another Scott
@New Deal democrat:
Only’s doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
In 2019, the leading cause of death in 15-44 year olds was unintentional injury. Total deaths in that category was 60,341. Total deaths from all causes in that age group was 171,935.
So COVID-19 is causing a (very roughly, since the age brackets are identical) 10-15 percentage point increase in the death rate in that age group. That’s huge.
And we need to remember that nobody knows in advance who is at risk of getting hospitalized or dying. Newborns have gotten severely sick with COVID (in China – pre-Delta) and some have died in the US. Ultramarathoners have been on vents for weeks (pre-Delta).
And have you ever gotten the flu? I had it in the summer of 2019 after visiting Nara, Japan. It’s horrible. Really horrible. 2+ weeks of misery and slow recovery and weeks to get back to normal. It’s a big deal, even if one isn’t hospitalized. And COVID is often worse, even if one isn’t hospitalized. Even if one is lucky enough not to get long-COVID.
Fauci’s right that we need to prevent infections. Just letting COVID rage – even in the vaccinated – is failure. We need to crush community spread through vaccination, masks, and all the sensible public health measures.
(Stats from https://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/leadcause.html )
Cheers,
Scott.
WV Blondie
Re higher COVID death rates in rural counties:
When I was in public school eons ago, I remember social studies and history teachers talking about how America originally was settled by British/Irish/European immigrants who were willing to take on the risks and dangers of a new land because their lives were so circumscribed, even blighted, by the economic and social structures of their homelands.
Today, it’s the people who flee rural communities for urban/suburban areas to have the chance to improve their lives. With COVID, those communities are now dying two deaths.
Robert Sneddon
@New Deal democrat: Scotland where I live is currently reporting deaths from COVID-19 at a horrendous rate, close to the US national figure in terms of per capita deaths (basically multiply the Scottish numbers by a factor of 60 to compare). Reported daily new case numbers are also way higher than they should be in a population with the very high vaccination rates we have in Scotland (84% all adults over 16 fully vaccinated, 91% first vaccination).
The big gap in vaccination is in the Young Immortals since pretty much 100% of everyone over the age of 50 is fully vaccinated. The 18-40 group is providing the pool of active cases that allows this disease to spread. They’re the ones going to the pubs and clubs, football matches and bingo halls and infecting each other as well as enabling breakthrough cases in older more vulnerable people. If more of them were vaccinated there’d be many fewer cases around but, Young Immortals? The name sums it up.
There was a BBC report I saw recently of one such person, a 32-year-old who missed his appointment for vaccination and didn’t bother to reschedule it or even use the no-appointment drop-in centres later to get vaccinated because “it was too much bother”. He later caught COVID-19 and spent time hospitalised but survived. He now regrets his initial impulse to ignore this disease but he’s typical of the Young Immortals and as long as they’re out there doing their thing unvaccinated the disease will prosper.
Matt McIrvin
@Carlo:
No, it did not. Vaccine immunity was less effective against it but it did not entirely nullify the vaccines. And, yes, it also reproduced more slowly than Delta–but this was probably not a coincidence.
My impression from listening to scientists is that the more they actually know about viruses and immunology, the less they believe that there is going to be a variant that makes existing vaccines completely useless. Generally, they say that mutations that have that effect also tend to make the virus less functional–note that Delta doesn’t particularly evade immunity at all, it just overwhelms the system by brute force, reproducing more rapidly.
The worry about the inevitable doomsday variant is coming from people who may have public-health experience, but are not experts on how viruses or the immune system work.
rikyrah
@Suzanne:
Was it as overwhelming as I would think it is?
Sloane Ranger
Thursday in the UK we had 36,480 new cases. This is an increase of 6.5% in the rolling 7-day average. New cases by nation,
England – 29,826 (up 790)
Northern Ireland – 1163 (down 157)
Scotland – 2911 (down 86, but see Robert Sneddon above)
Wales – 2580 (down 789).
Deaths – There were 137 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday. This is a decrease of 13.9% in the rolling 7-day average. 87 deaths were in England, 2 in Northern Ireland, 35 in Scotland and 13 in Wales.
Testing – 1,115,605 tests took place on Wednesday, 29 September. This is an increase of 23.9% in the rolling 7-day average. The PCR testing capacity reported by labs on that date was 835,583.
Hospitalisations – There were 6853 people in hospital and 813 on ventilators on Wednesday, 29 September. The rolling 7-day average for hospital admissions was down by 13.7% as of 26 September.
Vaccinations – As of Wednesday, 29 September, 48,829,118 people had had 1 shot of a vaccine and 44,867,373 had had both. This means that, as of that date, 89.8% all UK residents aged 16+ had had 1 shot and 82.5% were fully vaccinated.
J R in WV
@Soprano2:
I wouldn’t assume that at all. I would assume that she just decided to quit wearing a mask because she hates it.
I would ask to see her vaccination card, and then look her up on the state database of vaccinated people, because I don’t trust anyone any more about their vaccination status.
And no, that isn’t private information, not when a positive person can infect and kill everyone they meet while spreading the virus!
TheOtherHank
Anecdata on mixing vaccines: I got the J&J vaccine in April at a mass vaccination event at the Oakland Coliseum. The family was planning a vacation to Utah over the summer, so in early July I got the first Moderna before we did our road trip to the land of the unvaccinated people. I got the second Moderna jab a month after the first.
Other than soreness at the site of injection, I had no reaction to the J&J shot. Both Moderna ones knocked me on my butt for a day.
I rationalized it because there was no waiting for the Moderna appointment and so I didn’t feel like I was depriving someone of a needed shot. And the Rite Aid website asked this question: “Have you had the first injection?” with these answers: “A) No” and “B) Yes (Pfizer/Moderna)”. I could not select answer B, so A it was.
I kind of want to get the Pfizer booster so I can collect the whole set.
New Deal democrat
@Robert Sneddon: Let me reiterate and emphasize that I wrote “from their point of view.” Their refusal to get vaccinated allows the virus to circulate among older adults, but that’s a *public* health consideration, not one about their individual or group risks.
@Another Scott: And the same applies your point. A 1 in 5,000 chance of dying from something is the kind of chance a Young Immortal is probably going to take, even if it is a big increase from a 1 in 100,000 chance in ancient times before 2020.
Taken4Granite
@Lacuna Synecdoche: You are not wrong about the 90-95% number. That applies to a bunch of viruses that cause what used to be common childhood diseases before vaccines became available: things like measles. I haven’t seen estimates of R0 for any of them other than measles, which has an R0 of around 15. So you need a vaccination rate of more than 90%–more like 94%–to have herd immunity from measles. The key number is Reff, the actual replication rate, rather than R0, the rate of replication in the absence of anything to slow it down. As long as you get Reff below 1, the epidemic eventually dies out (or never gets started in the first place), although it can take a while if Reff is only slightly below 1.
It’s the same mathematics as for nuclear fission reactions, but with the complications you noted of evolution and human behavior. But instead of an epidemic, letting Reff go above 1 in a fission reaction gives you [voice=”Marvin the Martian”] an Earth-shattering kaboom [/voice].
gvg
@Carlo: People who are stating that if the risk is only getting sick not serious enough for the hospital is OK, really think they won’t catch it at all. If they can catch it, they might die of it and they might host a mutation that is worse. The are also acting in ways that contribute to the spread. Not masking, not distancing, having big groups….People who say this are spreaders. It’s the let grandma die politicians who blurt this out. Fauci knows.
Peale
@Lacuna Synecdoche: GOP Grippe?
ColoradoGuy
MAGAvirus
charon
Or maybe just a criticality incident, a release of radiation and heat that makes a mess and gives some people nearby radiation sickness.
Creating an actual bomb is complicated, not that simple. That’s why there was a Manhattan Project.
Scout211
Governor Newsom announced a school vaccine mandate for California.
StringOnAStick
Officially it’s 700,000, but you have to assume it’s much higher; probably a million by now.
A good friend went to the funeral for a woman she worked with years ago, the deceased was very evangelical with all the cultural signifiers. The cause of death was given as “sudden kidney failure with a lesser heart problem contributing” , when it was obviously Covid but her church doesn’t “believe” in Covid. The former co-workers were in one section of the church, all masked; all the church members were not.
LiminalOwl
@Rusty: “Live free and die,” right?
rikyrah
@Scout211:
CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP
Richard
My neighbor is on a ventilator with blood clots in his lungs. He may yet survive. His wife also had this disease, but she recovered, so far.
They are not what you would call well educated people. They can count, but they can’t read or spell. They are not bad people. They try to be kind.
But they are so deeply entrenched in this trump culture. They have a big inferiority complex. They are going to do it the hard way.
If he dies, it will be a bad thing. What will his wife do? What about the daughter? She is already skating on thin ice.
I used to say that i have no sympathy for these idiots, but if it is your actual next door idiot, it has a different color. It affects us all.