Last Wednesday night one of you fine readers and commenters emailed me asking what I thought was going on with the fun times we’ve been watching take place in Congress. This was the first part of my initial response:
Shit is definitely fucked up right now. Sinema has basically decided to be Heath Ledger’s version of the Joker from the 2nd Christian Bale Batman movie. Manchin is just Manchin. Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer know their business. And Clyburn is the House whip and he’s not a fool, which is why he’s not whipping votes. I expect that Manchin, Sinema, and their catspaw in the House Gottheimer are going to get their pee pees smacked good and hard tomorrow. I expect that an abject lesson is being prepared for them. And, frankly, they deserve one. They made a deal. They are now reneging on that deal. They claim to have issues, but refuse to delineate them so they can be negotiated. They deserve what is coming to them tomorrow. If, indeed, an abject lesson is going to be taught.
And an object lesson was had by those who needed it. From all the reporting Manchin and Sinema are both now engaged and negotiating. And Gottheimer’s power move was so impotent that his statement, which BettyC brought to all of our attention, had to be issued unilaterally because none of the nine other Democratic representatives he was supposedly leading on this were willing to put their names on it!
If there’s one Democratic member of the House and Senate that comes out of this with improved political capital and stature, or who should, it is Congresswoman Jayapal. She knows her caucus, she knows the entire Democratic caucus in the House, and she knows her business.
The real, ongoing crisis in Congress is actually playing out in the Senate. And it, as every crisis that has originated in the Senate for the past twelve years, will be because of Senate Minority Leader McConnell. Part of McConnell’s strategy was counting on his pet parliamentarian, who he’s cultivated for years, continuing to make rulings adverse to the Democrats and the Democrats not having the political will to either override her rulings or do what Trent Lott did in 2002: fire the parliamentarian the GOP majority inherited from the previous Democratic majority and replace the parliamentarian with someone of their own choosing. He was specifically counting on her disallowing a debt ceiling raise through the reconciliation process. While I’ve seen one reference to her ruling that using reconciliation to deal with the debt limit would be acceptable, I can’t actually find any reporting that confirms this. Senator Schumer is left with a dilemma: an unelected official that he inherited from his predecessor who hired her, whose power exists solely because of a 100 plus year old Senate rule, and is currently out for two weeks for treatment of her stage 3 breast cancer, so he can’t fire her because it would make him look like an asshole.
It won’t make much difference, however, because the Senate Democratic leadership recognize that Senator McConnell’s attempts to force the Democrats to use reconciliation to deal with the debt ceiling is an attempt to prevent them from using reconciliation to pass all the infrastructure programs that are not in the regular order infrastructure bill. The intent is to force the Democrats to rush the process so as to prevent a debt default and by doing so make it impossible for them to actually negotiate the infrastructure that is supposed to be the focus of the reconciliation bill. By doing so, McConnell seeks to force the Democrats to either prevent a global financial meltdown caused by the US defaulting on its debt or pass their larger infrastructure package through reconciliation and in doing so prevent them from doing either. McConnell is counting on this because he doesn’t want either of them to pass and this is his best tactic to achieve that strategic goal. Which is why he taunted President Biden and the Senate Democrats this morning in the form of a formal statement.
The Democratic leadership also recognize that even though it would technically only take two weeks to push a debt ceiling waiver through reconciliation, that would be under ideal and optimal conditions. The reality, however, is that McConnell will use every possible procedure to drag out the process, grinding every other bit of possible business the Senate could conduct over the next two weeks to a standstill.
Given it would eat up at least two weeks of floor time to amend the reconciliation bill to include the debt ceiling, and that the current parliamentarian would be unlikely to allow anything but a direct, specific number increase – so no just tying it to the total debt or permanently suspending it – that’s not happening. Especially because the Democratic Senate leadership has stated they’re not going to go that route anyway.
Right now the Democrats have no leverage until or unless Manchin and Sinema are willing to at least reform the filibuster, because Manchin and Sinema are giving McConnell leverage, and what appears to be no actual strategy other than trying to shame Manchin, Sinema, and 10 Republicans into doing the right thing. You can’t shame the shameless.
McConnell’s strategy, as it’s been since JAN 2009, is to allow nothing of consequence be done when there’s a Democratic president because he’s learned that the Democratic president in specific and the Democrats in general will be blamed. The looming debt default is his current 3 meter target. McConnell knows that a debt default is going to cause serious significant economic disruption right now. In fact he’s counting on it. McConnell doesn’t care if it destroys the US economy or the global economy or how much real damage it will do. His donors have all protected their assets. I expect that they’ve all shorted the US and are actually betting on and planning on US default in the markets right now. I expect most of the Republican senators are also making that same bet with their own investments. And McConnell fervently believes, based on the past 12 years of actual events, that if he burns the American economy to ashes that he’ll be rewarded with being put in charge of those ashes.
If he can, he is going to kill the hostage this time. He has decided that this time, it is not in his interest to even try to ransom the debt ceiling. He’s gone from being an insurrectionist to a senatorial IED emplacer to being a senatorial suitcase nuke. McConnell has seen how the news media, especially the political reporters and the pundits have been on a feeding frenzy of misrepresentation and bad faith framing since the withdrawal from Afghanistan in August. The reporting on the Democratic negotiations and the process for getting the two infrastructure bills passed has been just as bad if not worse. All of this just reinforces McConnell’s view of whether his strategy will work once again. To be perfectly honest, I do not see anything that would indicate that his assumptions are wrong; that the strategy he is continuing to pursue and the tactics that he is using to achieve his strategic objectives is going to fail. It has never brought him anything but success since he first implemented it in JAN 2009.
Open thread!
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to make dinner.
Steeplejack
Minor note: I think it should be “object lesson,” not “abject lesson.”
JPL
Why wouldn’t it work. MSM is still talking about Clinton’s blowjob, as if it is relevant.
SpaceUnit
Bigfoot much?
I saw that Joe Biden accused the republicans of playing ‘Russian roulette’ with the debt ceiling, so it will probably become a trend on the right to play actual Russian roulette in order to own the libs.
So we’ve got that going for us.
debbie
I heard Biden say it all out loud today: The debt the ceiling’s needed for is the TFG administration’s debt. There isn’t time to fold the debt ceiling into reconciliation. The Republicans are willing to tank the economy and destroy the country.
Go, Joe!
JPL
@SpaceUnit:
too late
Herschel Walker Brags About Playing Russian Roulette
Major Major Major Major
It would? Didn’t the GOP go through like seven rapid fire versions of a reconciliation package a few years ago? And of course the parliamentarian can be told to go pound sand at any point.
The obamacare reconciliation portion was thrown together in like a week and edited after the parliamentarian ruled on some loan stuff. Maybe I’m missing something.
SpaceUnit
@JPL: Holy crap. Welp, there’s a trend on the right I can fully support. Go Darwin!
JPL
@SpaceUnit: ha link
JPL
@SpaceUnit: There is always a republican for that.
Josie
What would be the procedure for overriding the parliamentarian?
The Thin Black Duke
This is America’s Brexit.
Ruckus
I wonder if Mitch wants to go out in style.
His health is an issue and lately he looks worse and worse every time his mug in in the picture. He’s 79, living with polio, even if it isn’t as bad for him as others, it’s still not a disease that always goes away. It can hide for a good while but when it comes back in the later years, it isn’t fun and it comes back about half the cases. That along with just getting old can be a lot. I know people with it, it wasn’t good when they were young, it isn’t good when you get old.
Major Major Major Major
@Josie: point of order, 60 votes, according to the rules, which can be modified at any time with a bare majority.
Omnes Omnibus
Why won’t it work this time? Because the Democrats in office could see it coming.
SiubhanDuinne
@JPL:
Never heard that, and was sure you were exaggerating or joking, so I looked it up. Holy crap — the interview with Howard Stern is utterly chilling.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mediaite.com/politics/senate-hopeful-herschel-walker-claimed-he-played-russian-roulette-more-than-6-times/amp/
We must do everything humanly possible to keep this man far, far away from elected office.
Jeez.
ETA: Woops, sorry, posted before I saw that you also provided a link.
SpaceUnit
@JPL: Yeah, I can’t keep up with these bozos. They’re spiraling into the abyss faster than we can make fun of them.
Tom Levenson
I think that the one glimmer of hope I can see is that Biden is under no illusions about what’s going on and he can be a gutter fighter when needed.
That’s not much hope, but it’s what I got.
In other news: the elite media is a failure as a journalistic enterprise. For the job I now fully grasp that they were hired to do, they’re great. The New York Times sees itself and is part of the unelected DC power structure. To a lesser extent, but far from zero, so is the Post. The major nets are all subsidiaries of larger economic units that see news coverage both as a profit center and a way to shape events to serve their economic interests (that doing shitty journalism in defense of wealth and unelected power also serves, say, Murdoch’s political obsessions is a bonus, but not the primary driver). The media we have serves interests other than the news and any form of public discourse, and modern media is so concentrated that the Founders’ assumption that bad takes would be overwhelmed by better ones, always iffy, is now a completely dead letter. And that doesn’t even begin to describe the wretched oligopolous state of social media.
I don’t think even this is necessarily fatal to some vague hope for a better country. But it’s a fucking steep hill to climb.
And all this before I’ve had more than three sips of my glass of rye. Or is it wry?
Gvg
I think there have been too many debt ceiling crisis calls. The republicans have over used this trick.
I don’t think the brainless moron republicans in Congress believe or know that defaulting would be an economic disaster that would permanently hurt their wealth.
I don’t think most of the press ever understood it. Economic literacy and finance are not common anywhere.
Most of the public is actually bored and doesn’t think it will happen. It is hard to fight the nuts when most of the population that should be calling Congress, thinks it is just another fake attention getting new story.
I say fire the parliamentarian.
Also I am tired of this stupid debt ceiling law. Somebody introduce a bill to kill it, please.
SiubhanDuinne
@Ruckus:
Who is most likely to become the Senate Republican Leader if and when McConnell leaves, whether in style or out?
The ones with seniority are ancient. Has anyone indicated a hunger for the job?
Mike in NC
Are congratulations in order? I read that she goes either way…
sab
@The Thin Black Duke: yes indeed. But fortunately, the Faux watching masses are not voting for a few months. Brexit was having them vote NOW!
SpaceUnit
@Tom Levenson: more like awry
Josie
I wish Schumer would keep the Senate in session day and night until they solve this problem. Maybe a few nights on the mattresses might shake a few votes loose.
sab
@SiubhanDuinne: I am only 67 and McConnell will outlast me. I have to go to Cleveland Clinic suburban offshoot. He gets Walter Reed.
Ohio Mom
I am not an oncologist but as someone who has had a breast cancer diagnosis, I find it hard to believe the Parliamentarian will only be out for a few weeks.
Stage Three means it has spread locally and that means the big guns are taken out — at this point, it’s a lot more than a lumpectomy and some radiation.
Now plenty of people get from Stage Three to No Evidence of Disease or what lay people might call cured. But it isn’t an short, easy road to get there.
I am guessing that most people in her position (that is, people who are not afraid their jobs and health coverage would be jeopardized by taking off from work) would take a formal leave of absence and a substitute would be appointed. But something tells me the same aspects of this woman’s personality that prevent her from doing so are the same aspects that make so many of her rulings repulsive to me.
The Thin Black Duke
@sab: And McConnell’s children hate him. He’ll die alone in a room.
Ksmiami
@debbie: mint the coin- it’s the only solution
MC
Another “How We Will Lose and Die” post
Dan B
@The Thin Black Duke: It seems like it will be the World’s Brexit. Will China be the first world power to pull out? It seems like they are large enough and autocratic enough to impose austerity for enough years to dramatically strengthen their domestic economy.
Baud
@MC:
Colonel Mustard in the library with a candlestick.
Kirk Spencer
@SiubhanDuinne:
It’s an election, and notionally the current whip John Thune would be the front runner. I’m not sure he’d get it – nothing solid, just a gut feel that he’s got too many mean dogs who want to stand on McConnell’s record.
cain
I’m glad to see that Manchin and Sinema are now engaged. I hope they live happy lives. (also what Mike in NC said!)
But I hope that means that they know that they are gonna get fucked if they don’t play ball. If they want they can at least make the lack of filibuster a temporary thing – for the session so that they can get the country back on track.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Jayapal has really impressed me through all this. I’m not sure I ever noticed her before.
Dan B
@MC: i read it as an accurate assessment of how high the hurdles are. It may be the end of the American dream but it is as likely to be the tale of the Phoenix.
Martin
I think all of the progressive caucus comes out pretty good here. AOC has been out front, as has Ilyan who is the caucus whip. Katie is vice chair and has been doing great on the rounds.
Point of order, Katie district is historically far from a safe D district, yet she’s not pulling the Sinema bullshit. She signed on with the progressive caucus and is pulling those of us in the district to carry her to reelection. If she were tacking right, odds are she’d lose this seat to a Republican.
Chief Oshkosh
I lost two very close loved ones to breast cancer, back when there were many fewer options and treatments were awful and limited. And it was AWFUL. But you know what? That has nothing to do with the parliamentarian’s job. If she’s a hindrance to the current Senate leadership, fire her. Right now. Compared to the pain that she’s apparently willing to visit upon the entire human population, one person getting canned is nothing. She needs to be gone from the building yesterday. Shit, given her previous “performance” under Mitch, I’d be willing to be the guy who boxed up her office shit and delivered it to her bedside. I’d even include a get well card from Chuck, Nancy, and Uncle Joe.
Fair Economist
Put the Parliamentarian on leave of absence and appoint an acting Parliamentarian. Preferably Elizabeth Warren
Edit: in all seriousness, if the US is facing possible catastrophe which requires Parliamentarian approval to fix, it’s inexcusable to have nobody doing the job.
gene108
@Omnes Omnibus:
I am always stunned by your optimism. I don’t know how you do it.
Kirk Spencer
@Dan B: No.
Or rather, they may pull out and go the austerity route but if they do they are cutting their throats. Austerity is the wrong choice.
It’s simple (well, simplistic), really. In a health economy, money moves. Anything that restricts that movement must be done with the caution you’d use in restricting the flow of blood in a person.
Ksmiami
@Fair Economist: they have to. Plus if she can’t do the job, she is just not important enough to hold up the country
lowtechcyclist
I think that if push comes to shove, Biden should go the 14th Amendment route: “the validity of the public debt of the United States…shall not be questioned.” On that basis, he directs the Treasury to keep on paying the bills as if there were no debt ceiling.
What happens directly as a result of this? Nothing, really. The debt ceiling is an artifice. If you ignore an artifice, nothing happens.
Does anything else happen? I expect so: I can see Mitch and the GQP taking the Biden Administration to court to force a default. That’s obviously not good, but at the very least it puts the PR shoe on the other foot: it’s hard for Mitch to blame Biden for the default if he’s the one actively forcing it on Biden.
It also gives Biden some time, as the case goes from district court to circuit court of appeals to the Bogus Scotus. During that time, he should have the trillion-dollar platinum coin minted. Hell, make it a five-trillion dollar platinum coin. Ten trillion. He can make it any denomination he damn well pleases, so he might as well give himself plenty of room. So when the Bogus Scotus rules against him, he just pulls the coin out of his pocket, and deposits it over at the Fed for the win.
Maybe he should have it minted with Mitch’s face on the ‘heads’ side, just to taunt him.
Timurid
@Ohio Mom: Stage III cancer with a secondary diagnosis of Breyer’s Disease.
Jake Gibson
Jayapal would be a good Candidate for speaker when Pelosi hangs up her slingbacks. Clyburn is a good soldier but doesn’t seem like Speaker material.
Dan B
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Jayapal was my rep but we got eliminated from her district. She was a local star here before jumping straight to DC. She’s a genius on stage. Her talks always were packed. It still surprises me a bit that her rise in DC has been so meteoric.
Her election launch was 5 blocks from our house. There were 250 people of every race and nationality, straight and queer. I got to talk with a progressive Muslim woman who had attended some events our progressive religious organization organized and with the head of CAIR Washington. Samia broached the subject of having CAIR support LGB Muslims. And there were many other great local activists that made it feel like a wonderful confluence of good people.
Ksmiami
@gene108: to me he’s smoking some powerful shit…
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: They have to amend the existing reconciliation bill. That requires, if everything goes right, two weeks of Senate work days. Senator Durbin, however, has stated that it would actually take three to four weeks, but that it doesn’t matter because the Democrats are not going to do it.
Jake Gibson
Jayapal would be a good Candidate for speaker when Pelosi hangs up her slingbacks. Clyburn is a good soldier but doesn’t seem like Speaker material.@lowtechcyclist:
tails side
MagdaInBlack
@Dan B: China has it’s own little mess going on. Google “Evergrande”
Chetan Murthy
@Dan B: That’s nice to hear. Obviously I am pleased with her leadership of the CPC. And “Desi represent!” I’d love to see her move on to greater things, but I worry that I’m biased by, y’know, both of us being Desis. It’s good to learn that she’s got what it takes.
sdhays
He did fail to make Obama a one term President.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes, they saw it coming. And their strategy to avoid it is to waive the debt ceiling limit through regular order. Which requires 60 votes to achieve cloture before proceeding to the simple majority vote for passage. They do not have 60 votes for cloture and, therefore, cannot get to the simple majority vote to pass the bill to waive the debt ceiling limit.
They’ve taken reconciliation off the table. This means they need 60 votes. They don’t have 60 votes.
Dan B
@Kirk Spencer: Thanks. My brain has been confused about how China could takeover as the leading world economy in a worldwide depression. Trade is essential to them at the moment. Supply chain issues are already causing problems.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: Here you go, from the 10:49 AM post:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/live-blog/the-work-continues-after-progressives-rescue-two-track-infrastructure-plan?entry=1389548
gene108
@Chief Oshkosh:
There are assistant and senior assistant Senate Parliamentarians. The current Parliamentarian was a senior assistant before her promotion.
The office is not a one woman operation.
Either she can be reached to give her approval or rejection of whatever the assistants come up with as a reasonable solution to parliamentary questions or she may have deputed someone on a temporary basis to decide these issues in her place.
Martin
@Jake Gibson: It’s going to be Jeffreys.
Ksmiami
@lowtechcyclist: it’s what the NY money guys are suggesting at this point…
Hoodie
I wonder if McConnell’s game is a bit different than what Alan laid out. Is it possible that McConnell is trying to bait the Dems into wasting a carve out on the filibuster for the debt ceiling and thus burn some of Biden/Schumer/Pelosi leverage against Sinema and Manchin? I could see him thinking Manchin and Sinema might go for a very narrow filibuster carve out for the debt ceiling and then, chickenshit that the are, claim they have fulfilled any need to modify the filibuster for actual substantive purposes such as voting rights legislation. Getting rid of the filibuster for the debt ceiling expansion allows the GOP to continue to make symbolic gestures about fiscal responsibility while absolving them of responsibility. He may be trying to create a sort of Hobson’s choice for Dems, i.e., either muck up the reconciliation process for Biden’s agenda or screw any chance for meaningful filibuster reform.
gene108
@lowtechcyclist:
McConnell blaming Democrats for Republicans bad deeds is not a challenge for him. He has no shame, no scruples, and will say anything to gain power.
Benw
Yo, I agree that McConnell’s an asshole and that the DC press sucks harder than a black hole. But he’s not unstoppable: he fucking lost when the ACA passed, he lost when Obama was re-elected, he lost when the ACA wasn’t killed, and he lost when Biden won.
Completely irrelevant kick ass song: https://youtu.be/MfmYCM4CS8o
Another Scott
Good piece, and maybe 95% agree, but the current parliamentarian apparently was Harry Reid’s choice in January 2012:
Moscow Mitch is counting on the Democrats to figure out a way to pass a debt limit suspension without GQP votes – he knows that they’re not going to permit a default. (Or if there is a short default, he’s counting on the bad results to punish Biden and the Democrats.) He wants to be able to campaign against “tax and spend” Democrats. That’s all he cares about. There’s no greater strategery here – as you’ve said before, all he’s good at is blocking stuff.
EdKilgore at NYMag says debt limit reconciliation wouldn’t affect the $3.5T reconciliation process much:
I’m sure Chuck and Nancy and Joe and Janet have gamed all this out. We’ll have to see how it turns out.
My $0.02. FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
CaseyL
Jayapal is my Rep. She was elected after Jim McDermott (a liberal lion of the House and of Washington State) retired. He’d held the seat for decades.
I wasn’t too pleased with her a few years back, at some kind of conference. She was on stage with Ilhan and someone else (I don’t remember who the third person was) when Ilhan booed at the mention of Hillary Clinton. Jayapal smiled and nodded and I was really pissed at her for it.
But she has won me over since then, doing great work wrangling the Progressive Caucus and being very good at interviews/sound bites.
artem1s
government shut down is one thing. I don’t see Joe Malarky Biden letting the country default. He’s also too decent a human being. He doesn’t care about the political blowback or horse race horse shit. He knows who will be hurt the most. my bet is on he orders Yellen to ignore the debt ceiling and keep paying the bills.
Ohio Mom
@Timurid: I’ve never heard of Breyer’s disease and couldn’t google it. Whatever, I think everyone here agrees she needs to step aside, officially, at least temporarily (not that I wouldn’t be glad to see her and her conservative rulings go permanently).
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@CaseyL:
It was Rashida Tlaib, I believe, who did the booing, but I think Jayapal and the Progressive Caucus establishing themselves as the vanguard of Bidenism was smart politics.
Chief Oshkosh
@gene108: All the more reason to fire her, then, and replace her with someone who calls the strike zone better. Why give her underlings, who may be loyal to her, any say in the matter at all?
Martin
It seems to me that the correct approach from the Dems here is to get infrastructure passed, taking reconciliation off the table, which turns McConnell’s threat into one that can only be resolved by ending the filibuster (since that’s his actual, though unstated demand) and Schumer and Biden place that burden at the feet of Sinema and Manchin who have no way to negotiate out of. What ‘principled stand’ do they have left?
Dan B
@CaseyL: Jayapal is not perfect. Hate Free Zone took credit for other organizations’ work on a number of successes. She does shine on media and on stage. That’s important. The public has to be brought along.
Timurid
@Ohio Mom: Named after the Supreme Court justice who thinks he’s immortal…
Another Scott
Markets aren’t panicking. 10 year T-bill rates were higher in March than they are now.
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@Jake Gibson: James Clyburn will be too old to run for Speaker. But Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries of Brooklyn is in his 50s, hardworking, an excellent communicator, and overall a formidable politician. He seems to have an inside track for the job in 2023.
But Democrats need to hold the House next year or else the Democratic Caucus will elect a Minority Leader, not a Speaker
Starfish
@Geminid: Yes, I thought they were setting him up to be the next speaker.
Dan B
@Timurid: AND who was patronizing and condescending to Christiane Amanpour. His name should be affixed to some disgusting elitist disease.
Chetan Murthy
@Another Scott: I won’t pretend to be able to read those tables. And I’m not a trader type, so I don’t actually know this stuff cold. But I thought that “markets are panicking” usually means that t-bill rates -drop- ? B/c there’s a “flight to quality”, and people want to buy t-bills, so their price goes up, and that means that interest rate goes down ? Just asking …..
Bill Arnold
@Hoodie:
That’s my reading too. It feels like at least one other hidden factor is in play, but not sure.
The Biden administration and the Democrats and their allies need to get seriously ruthless.
They are not dealing with an opposition party; they are dealing with literal Enemies of the United States of America. Who should be treated as such.
Wingnuts, being who they are, would interpret that as a mortal threat. Sucks to be them, stuck in their own defective minds. And who knows, if they succeed, maybe they will be … surprised.
Ruckus
@SiubhanDuinne:
I’d bet most of them have a hunger for the job. How many of them think the other one’s are worth voting for? There are plenty with enough time in to work for the job, but how many are able to be as bad as Mitch is anyone’s guess. My point is that none of them are seemingly any thing like a leader, which as shitty a human he is, he does lead his side of the aisle as it seems they want it led, as an obstructionist of the first order. As an actual leader that looks for the best for the job he holds he’s about a D minus minus. As a leader for the obstructionist party he’s not bad.
lowtechcyclist
@Fair Economist:
As best as I can tell as a person who is far from knowledgeable about Senate rules, there’s literally no requirement that there be a Parliamentarian. Anyone who knows this territory better than I, please feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.
It seems apparent that having a parliamentarian is a practical necessity on a day-to-day basis, given the complexity of the Senate rules. But my keyword search of the Senate rules didn’t turn up any rule that required that there be one, and of course numerous persons have mentioned lately that that Parliamentarian’s role is advisory.
LongHairedWeirdo
@Major Major Major Major:
In order to use reconciliation, there has to be a blueprint document. The Build Back Better plan’s blueprint doesn’t include the debt ceiling, and that seems to be the problem.
Republicans did do a lot of modifications to skinny repeal of the ACA, and their monstrous tax cut, but stuck within the blueprints of each, so they never had a time the parliamentarian could stop them, per my inexact understanding.
Fake Irishman
@lowtechcyclist:
Does Mitch have the standing to sue? Takes a majority vote to file suit on behalf of the senate.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: Yes, a run to safety usually means a run to T-Bills and similar government bonds and that usually means that yields drop. There were times during the Great Recession when some Swiss bonds had negative yields (investors were paying Switzerland to hold their money) – which some said was impossible…
If people were worried about not getting their money back from Uncle Sam because of a default, then T-Bill yields should rise (the Treasury would have to pay more to get people to invest).
Bloomberg has more.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Fake Irishman
@LongHairedWeirdo:
the parliamentarian did block them on several major issues, including plans to monkey with essential health benefits. The minority budget staff came ready to play.
Chetan Murthy
@Another Scott: Ah, right. Now I see your point.
lowtechcyclist
@gene108:
Well sure, he can say he’s Marie of Romania if he wants. But even the wired-for-Republicans DC press corpse might have a hard time swallowing the notion that Mitch’s lawsuit to force the U.S. to default on its obligations is somehow all Biden’s fault.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Another Scott: a few years ago I read Jean Strouse’s bio of JP Morgan. For almost an entire afternoon, I felt like I understood the bond market. Then I lost that feeling.
Another Scott
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: [ snort! ]
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@CaseyL: The incident you write about was a primary event in 2020 where three Sanders surrogates- Jayapal, Rashida Tlaib, and one other- were rallying Sanders supporters. When Tlaib mentioned Hilary Clinton some in the crowd booed and then Tlaib egged them on. Jayapal smiled, but I had the sense that it was an embarrassed smile, not that this would be to her credit. She should have spoken up.
I actually like and respect Jayapal and Tlaib, even though I may not be on their side of the Democratic electorate. But they should not have played to their audience like that.
Ksmiami
@Bill Arnold: exactly they are domestic terrorists and should be fucking hung.
Fake Irishman
I think we’re at a point like Kay described a week ago: we need some engineers in the dem side to figure out different ways to make things work, not mechanics describing how the system currently works.
Also, while I’m not going to argue the Biden has anything up his sleeve, it’s in his interest to hold any cards tight and give McConnell every possible opportunity to back off from the brink and let his caucus do the right thing without a drastic threat from the Dem side. So it’s quite possible we don’t see everything above the surface here.
Remember that Harry Reid looked weak and feckless in 2013 right up until he kicked McConnell over the ledge by blowing up the filibuster for most nominations (a move that got the Dems quite a few extra judges on the bench before they lost control of the chamber) Again, I’m NOT saying that’s happening here, but let’s be humble about what we think we know about Biden or Schumer’s thinking here about their endgame here.
Geminid
@Starfish: After Crowley lost his primary to Ocasio-Cortez, the House Democrats had to elect a new Caucus Chair, and Jeffries won by ten votes. He had only served three terms, but his peers and leadership must have seen something they liked.
lowtechcyclist
@Fake Irishman:
Hell if I know!
Fake Irishman
@lowtechcyclist: there’s a really strong argument he doesn’t.
J R in WV
@Tom Levenson:
Have you tried Basil Hayden’s dark rye, aged in porter barrels? Smooth dark whiskey. Kentucky’s best rye, if anyone asks me. The Pappy Van Winkle of rye.
I took quite a few econ classes when I went back to college in 1980, during the stagflation era. My 100 and 101 and 200 classes were taught by the Econ chairman, who didn’t mind an argumentative older student asking hard questions in the front row. For those who don’t recall, inflation and interest rates were in the upper teens at the time.
I was not shy, and felt free to compare an economic policy of continued infinite growth to cancer. He had a good time going back and forth with me, and I aced all those classes… We both enjoyed it.
Unfortunately, my Basil Hayder dark rye is currently all gone…….
Ken
@Another Scott: They also said negative oil prices were impossible, but that happened in May 2020.
(All right, it was some derivative, and it went negative because the contract period was closing. But it still worked out that if you held oil, you had to pay someone else to take it from you.)
Another Scott
I just noticed this post has a strange URL. ;-)
Relatedly, … TheHill:
Moscow Mitch could get his wish that only Democrats vote for the bill to suspend the limit simply by not objecting. Cruz and others have said they will object in the recent past (and I assume that they did so). Maybe that’s an eventual way out of this mess – MM just has to get the rest of the caucus not to object.
Will that happen Wednesday? I doubt it – it’s not close enough to the deadline. But it might happen on October 18…
We’ll see.
Cheers,
Scott.
Ruckus
@lowtechcyclist:
They will find a way.
Another Scott
@Fake Irishman: Yup. Presumably someone who owns T-Bills might have standing, but it would be perverse to somehow argue that one was injured by the US not defaulting.
The 14th Amendment would seem to be he cleanest long-term solution, even though many would balk at Biden invoking it. We should go back to the Gephardt Rule also too and move on.
Cheers,
Scott.
Bill Arnold
@Another Scott:
There’s been discussion of a carveout of the filibuster, to in some cases require 41 votes to sustain, rather than 60 to break. Then schedule a vote every day, making at least 41 Republicans vote to default on the debt every day.
Could this, or the threat of it, be a serious option?
Ksmiami
@Ruckus: as long as it involves Senate Republicans riding tumbrels, I’m game…
Another Scott
@Bill Arnold: Dunno. I would think that if they do a carve-out for the debt ceiling, then it would work the same as all the other carve-outs. Anything beyond that invites all kinds of arguments about mechanisms and probably would be even harder to do.
I doubt they’ll do a carve-out soon, unless it’s after a default…
Cheers,
Scott.
Librarian
@Fair Economist: I don’t think the job of parliamentarian can be held by a senator.
Kattails
I can’t follow this, the mechanics of it. All I do, on a regular basis, is call my representatives’ offices and let them know that I am 100% behind them using whatever tactics work to advance our agenda. This is not the GOP I grew up with; they are a pack of domestic terrorists and we need to use every tool and invent new ones. I do not care to spend the rest of my life in the country that Mitch and his viperous crew have planned for me. I keep trying to get friends to understand, you need to contact your reps. Who do they think they hear from?
At the women’s march, speakers were saying to light up the phones and emails of the governor and others just relentlessly over women’s health care rights. I say do it with all of this.
Bill Arnold
@Librarian:
How about an ex-Senator, like Joe Biden or Kamala Harris?
:-)
Eolirin
Sinema and Manchin just need to vote for a filibuster rules change and this all goes away. So I’m not sure McConnell can win this one. All Schumer has to do is make it clear that that’s the only way we can move forward, and to get the two problem people in his caucus to agree to the rules change. This will likely happen last minute after several failed votes. But as craven as the two of them are, I can’t see them voting for the US to default on its debt.
Omnes Omnibus
@gene108: I really just expect us to muddle through somehow. I never actually expect much more.
Omnes Omnibus
@Eolirin:
Exactly. There will be much ailing and gnashing of teeth, but this has to happen.
Omnes Omnibus
@Omnes Omnibus: Wailing, not ailing. Although….
Ksmiami
@Eolirin: they won’t… Default here we come unless Biden mints the coin
wombat probability cloud
@Gvg: My gut reaction is to (1) dismiss the parliamentarian with thanks for her service and replace her with someone politically neutral, and (2) set the debt ceiling at the level of the national debt or mint an N trillion platinum coin. We have to start making smart decisions relative to the future rather than wasting our time placating dead-enders.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott:
It’s because I’ve now written and deleted it three or four times since the beginning of last week. I resurrected the most recent attempt, from last Friday I think, and retitled it, revised it a bit, and posted it. It first posted it as if it was posted last Friday and then I had to go in and update the posting time and date. I thought I had the URL fixed, but apparently not. I’ve now just fixed it. The entire back end is a royal pain in the ass to use.
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: Norm Ornstein thinks it would be if they attempted it. I agree, but they have to attempt it and there’s nothing to indicate they will.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott:
He’s not going to do that.
Adam L Silverman
@Librarian: @Bill Arnold: If they get rid of the rule that created a parliamentarian it goes back to whomever is acting as the chair. Either the senator doing so or the VP.
Ksmiami
@wombat probability cloud: yep… time for some creative solutions because we’re in new dire territory
Ken
“I short-sold T-Bills after my good friend Senator McConnell assured me the US would be defaulting on its debt this time, and I lost billions!”
Rapidly Paste
I want to see Biden demand a few prime timeslots where he bashes the Republicans and names names. After all, this is an emergency and merits his time on TV
Raoul Paste
I want to see Biden demand a few prime time slots where he bashes the Republicans and names names. After all, this is an emergency and merits his time on TV
Tony Gerace
stinger
Oh, that I could live to see a President Jayapal!
Kayla Rudbek
@Ohio Mom: yes, I took off at least 6 months and I’m looking to switch jobs thanks to my stage 1 diagnosis (with some other issues going on as well). She should not be back in a mere two weeks for the sake of her health (not to mention that her decision making is going to be messed up from where it was previously)
Barry
@lowtechcyclist: also, a court would have to crash the economy.
Kay
Another “statement”. This is her only communication with her constituents- these ridiculous, grandiose “statements”.
She only accepts one way communications, where she lectures without any response permitted.
Kay
Sinema also refused to speak to a completely polite DACA acivist who approached her on a plane, so it’s just more baloney.
She doesn’t speak with the rabble under any circumstances, polite, impolite, whatever. She issues “statements”. No one may speak to her directly.
SeattleDem
@stinger: that would be difficult because she came to the US as a teenage college student.