I’m out in the Dakotas and as soon as I visit some diners, I’ll be able to let you all know what real Americans are thinking. But, in the meantime, let’s look at “popularism,” the stupid name for what pollster David Shor thinks Democrats should do, as told to Ezra Klein in a much-too-long Times piece over the weekend. Basically, Shor thinks that Democrats need to run on popular ideas (such as Medicare negotiating prices for drugs), and be careful about their messaging around police reform and climate change. Here’s the justification for toning down the climate change:
Shor showed me, as an example, a set of environmental talking points he’d tested, in which the ones that mentioned climate change performed worst. “Very liberal white people care way more about climate change than anyone else,” he said. “So when you talk about climate change, you sound like a weird, very liberal white person. This is why policy issues matter more than people realize. It’s not that voters have these very specific policy preferences. It’s that the policies you choose to talk about paints a picture of what kind of person you are.”
I should say that the polling differences here struck me as modest: The best environmental message on Shor’s list increased Biden’s approval rating by 1.7 percentage points, while the worst-performing message cut it by 0.4 points. On the other hand, a percentage point here, a percentage point there can be the difference between winning the White House and losing it.
Anyway, it really is a very long story, which is a testament to how receptive the Times thinks its white, liberal audience is to pieces explaining how you’re saying it wrong to the rubes. And I’m sure the white, liberal audience doesn’t have a big personal stake in issues like immigration, for which Shor’s prescription is to simply not talk about it, as the Obama campaign decided, because just talking about it caused white middle-class suburban women in focus groups to be more likely to vote for Romney. Shor’s general view:
[…] There was an old conventional wisdom to politics in the ’90s and 2000s that we all forget. We collectively unlearned those lessons over the past 12 years. We’ve told ourselves very ideologically convenient stories about how those lessons weren’t relevant — that tax phobia isn’t real or we didn’t need to worry about what conservative white people thought. And it turned out that wasn’t true. I see what I’m doing as rediscovering the ancient political wisdom of the past.
I guess if you think that the road to Democrats’ success is to tone down your messaging so white conservatives will consider voting for them, this makes sense. I take a view more like Steve M’s, in a piece titled “If Your Voters Think the Other Party is the Antichrist, You Don’t Need ‘Popularism'”. Steve points out that Republicans are motiviated by negative partisanship — they vote Republican because they hate Democrats. Lacking Fox News, and not constitutionally inclined to run a hate-filled campaign, the Democrats are already at a loss when battling Republicans.
Let’s face it: if you took a poll of Fox Republicans, and worded the questions to avoid trigger words used by Carlson and Hannity, they would probably agree with a lot of the issues that Democrats promote. But it would make no difference when they vote, because they will only vote for someone with “R” after their name. Such is the utility of issue polling and focus groups with that audience.
I think the lesson here is for Democrats to do popular, somewhat polarizing things, and hit the Republicans who oppose them, hard. One example is taxing the rich. Another is increasing access to affordable healthcare in any and all ways possible. We need to preserve voting rights, and I would really like to see some Democrats go hammer and tongs against DeathSantis, Abbottoir and the other stone killers. I don’t think suggestions like these are a panacea, because the problem we’re trying to solve is hard. But they involve fighting rather than hiding, and I think voters who will have to stand in lines for hours will appreciate that.
PsiFighter37
One can argue that some of Shor’s hypotheses are overwrought, but there is merit to some of them. Unfortunately, I think the ship has sailed on trying to realign working-class white folks to vote on something other than racial resentment.
Sure Lurkalot
Happily having quit the FTFNYT, I only read a bunch of outtakes and after so many “Democrat, words, bad”, I thought NMMNB’s was a piece of sunny optimism.
Matt McIrvin
Adam Serwer correctly identified the problem: the other side has influence over what people are talking about. You can’t just make the issues on which your positions are less popular go away. They’re going to bring them up. That’s what culture-warring is all about. If an evil position on, say, immigration is more popular than a good one, you can’t neutralize it by just not bringing up immigration, because the other side will demagogue it hard–you have to actively espouse the evil position, which will probably hurt you with your own base too
To me this is just Thomas Frank’s nonsense repeated.
Doug R
“The new Quinnipiac Poll shows something that’s popped up in other surveys: Biden’s infrastructure plan becomes MORE popular after voters are told it’s paid for with corporate tax hikes. ”
https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1382399475143090178
bbleh
I think the lesson here is for Democrats to do popular, somewhat polarizing things, and hit the Republicans who oppose them, hard.
Yes, and also — and much more importantly — promote the things you’ve done, to a Democratic audience.
Republicans lean Republican and almost uniformly will vote for Republicans *IF* they vote. The only reason to direct any messaging to Republicans is to convince the marginal ones NOT to vote. The most important thing Dem messaging can do is boost morale and turnout among Dem-leaners, and only secondarily is it to depress turnout among Republican-leaners.
The “crossover voter” is a chimera; changes in vote percentages between parties is not individual voters switching but rather people who lean one way staying home rather than voting and people who lean the other way doing the opposite. The whole DC “political reporter” fixation on “swing voters” and “undecideds” makes sense from the point of view of businesses that don’t want to lose a single set of eyeballs, and reporters who don’t want to alienate a single source or lose a single party invitation, regardless of political orientation. Political operatives who want to win (vs just keep raking in contracts) shouldn’t listen to a word they say.
The Dark Avenger
If you don’t give people a reason to vote for you, they’ll either not vote or vote for the other candidate. Unfortunately, screaming “We’re not as bad as the Republicans! Vote for us!” while defensively curling up in a corner of the room isn’t the way to do it.
rumpole
Shor-the guy who allowed a decorated war hero to be painted as a coward by a two term draft dodger. I don’t think he learned from the swiftboating incident. He’s pretty much the platonic ideal of a feckless democrat.
One political party tried to subvert democracy and kill members of Congress to install an autocrat. A minority of voters agrees with that. You’re not going to reach them. They would vote for Ted Bundy with an R after his name. You need to get the D side energized in off years or the whole shooting match is lost. That means -fighting-.
For example, Bannon claimed executive privilege in response to a 1.6 subpoena. He was not an executive branch employee. The privilege runs with the office (w/the exceptions of documents under the presidential records act–Trump has a right to contest their release.). Bannon’s response is legally friviolous and should have been the subject of immediate contempt proceedings. Instead, Congress is out for two weeks while they let a man who plotted to kill many of them walk free and their public statements say they will “swiftly consider.” There’s something deeply wrong with that. And yes, it’s the Kerry mistake all over again.
The never Trumpers seem to have a lot more urgency than the D leadership does. The first time, Trump didn’t havfe the benefit that most politicians have of a network of people to run the government. Now he has that network. If he wins again, they will be installed and the American experiment is over.
Those are the stakes. I would really like to see Democrats act like it.
Ken
My favorite take on “You’ll be popular, I’ll teach you the proper ploys” is now the scene in Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle where Professer Oberon (Jack Black) is teaching Ruby Roundhouse (Karen Gillan) how to be seductive.
L85NJGT
Gun racks for some, miniature confederate flags for others.
Angling for the Pat Caddell chair over at Fox. The problems in pandering to past election media cycles are self evident to all except Democratic messaging strategists.
ID your voters, get them to the polls.
ID your voters, get them to the polls.
ID your voters, get them to the polls.
ID your voters, get them to the polls.
Another Scott
@Matt McIrvin: + elevenenty billion.
There is no magic verbal incantation, especially not on a national scale. Tactics will vary, but the goals must be to 1) drive up Democratic turnout and 2) fight them every single day.
We can’t determine what they talk about, but we can determine what we talk about and do.
Cheers,
Scott.
Just Chuck
Hey press, how about reporting the facts rather than constantly trying to be fucking “strategists”? Especially the FTFNYT, whose advice always boils down to “roll over and be a good boy for the Republicans”.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin: Agree.
I’ve come to hate “here’s what Dems must do” thought pieces, regardless of the ideological bent.
Suzanne
Ughhhhh. Voters do not care about policy. They do not.
@bbleh:
Exactly correct.
Sean
My dad is a prime example of the conceit of this post. He says things to me on the phone that are so in line with democratic policy it is stunning to me. He comes right up to the line of understanding and then just never quite gets over it. He is republican dead ender. Voted for Trump twice (to my never ending disgust, which I made clear to him) and yet on the phone a few weeks ago, he was saying we should have vaccine mandates. He talks about financial policy in a way where he clearly gets the disparity of corporate greed vs the average person’s need and he’s mad about it. Sometimes he brings up something and it shocks me how in line with my thinking he is. But if you broach the topic in terms of “Democrats want to do X…” it changes everything entirely. There’s a bunch of reasons why their plan is bad, won’t work, blah blah blah. If I ask what the republican alternative is, the subject usually gets changed. I tell my dad all the time I am the way I am politically because it is the way he raised me. Fox ruined my Dad like so many others. But the worst part is, who he was is still there, obviously. He’s just been brainwashed to believe “Democrats” are the worst possible thing, rather than a possible answer to things he actually believes in.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@The Dark Avenger:
Nice strawman
Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix
@rumpole:
I think you’re getting him mixed up with Bob Shrum. Shor started in politics as a blogger in 2008.
Edmund Dantes
The lessons of the “90’s and 00’s”. I am sorry. How were Dems doing during that period?” Controlled all three branches of government right? With killer large majorities? And passed everything to our hearts content?
No we do not have to go back to the defensive crouch of the 90’s and 00’s. This defensive crouch is still being exhibited by Manchin. Look at how mad he was for Chuck even barely calling out the GOP. It’s bad politics. And it’s losing politics.
Sam
Well if the proper lesson is do good things and talk about them, I must say I give Biden a C. Nothing on voting rights, nothing on infrastructure, mixed pandemic results. Sure, I can blame external factors, Republicans, etc, but he gets the blame. He really needs to put some wins on the board, soon.
Jeffro
emphasis on “DO” – hurry up and DO infrastructure and reconciliation, Dems. It feels like we have been fucking around forEVer with these things, and voting rights, abortion rights, and insurrection accountability are waiting. Hurry. The. Fuck. Up. and DO.
Eunicecycle
@Sean: this sounds like several of my husband’s brothers. His question to them is, “Just what have Republicans done for the average person?” They can never come up with anything, but it’s just that they’ll never vote for a Democrat. For reasons they can’t articulate, either.
Villago Delenda Est
The disease of Broderism is now affecting pollsters. This is not good. The rubes are the rubes for a reason. They’re fucking rubes. Fuck all MAGAt filth. They are utterly worthless. Furthermore, they have already started the war. It’s time we recognized that and assume a “take no prisoners” attitude towards them. No quarter for MAGAts. They are enemies of the Constitution of the United States I was sworn to uphold and defend.
Parfigliano
Im up in eastern SoDak planning on going to lunch today. I will check out a diner.
Kay
I think “very liberal white people” is too narrow. I think climate change IS a narrower issue but I think it encompasses a lot of the suburban, educated voters Democrats rely on.
I sometimes get confused by these pundits. They divorce the much-talked about “suburban voters” with the “very liberal Brooklyn voters” they direct us not to care about, and there’s commonality there!
It makes it seem like the complaint about pundits from Lefties is accurate- that they just want to ditch Lefty policy so designate voters as “important” or “unimportant” depending on whether the pundit supports the policy.
raven
@Villago Delenda Est: fuckin a
Baud
@Sean:
I’m not expert at dealing with family members who are like this. But I can say it would please me greatly if you told your dad that his blood oath to the GOP makes his policy desires completely irrelevant.
Citizen Alan
@Eunicecycle:
I frame it this way: “Name one thing–just one–that the GOP has done in the last 25 years without the full support of the Democrats that has actually made life better for more people than it’s made significantly worse.”
Betty
Give people a reason to vote for you. Energize your base by fighting for them. Enough of the namby pamby. Demand respect.
Betty Cracker
I don’t think Shor is 100% wrong, but like everyone who has a “one weird trick” to sell, he’s biased toward his wares. I thought Klein did a decent job of debunking some of Shor’s points, like pointing out that Hillary Clinton talked about economic policy a ton in 2016 — more than any other issue — but all we heard about was emails and Trump’s ridiculous lies. It didn’t matter.
On the climate change issue, I think Biden has the messaging about right: talk about it in terms of jobs created as much as the planet saved. He does that now, has done that since 2020. It’s important, but I think you’re right that Biden’s messaging is not going to be pivotal in the vote necessarily. Personally, I do think if we don’t address climate in a big way in the reconciliation bill, we’ll screw ourselves with younger voters politically while losing time we don’t have on mitigating the worst effects. Maybe that perception is formed by my own bubble, but I think it’s reality.
Anyhoo, if I were Democratic Party messaging boss with a single weird trick to sell, I’d urge bringing the fight to Republicans more, and fuck the timid souls like Chris Coons and Joe Manchin who’d complain about it (those two got the vapors when Chuck Schumer criticized McConnell [!] after the latest debt ceiling idiocy). You don’t even have to win every fight, IMO — you’ve got to be seen fighting. That fires people up, and not just MAGA choads.
One possible example/test case: Louis DeJoy. I know why he’s still the postmaster general because I bothered to read about the roadblocks to removing him, which maybe one in a 5,000 Americans have. Y’all probably know too, so I won’t bother explaining the complexity. But people who understand this shit way better than I do have proposed that Biden shit-can the board members who are standing in the way of firing DeJoy for cause (i.e., they’re enabling a corrupt PG who is personally profiting from chaos at the PO) so the remainder and/or new members confirmed via simple majority can fire the sumbitch.
This is just an example. Maybe it would go to court, and it’s possible the decision would be reversed eventually and the miscreants would have to be reinstated — I don’t know how that would work. But in the meantime, DeJoy, who everyone fucking hates for screwing up the PO, would be fired, PO service could be improved as the potential case drags through court, and there would be much rejoicing.
There are many other examples where Democrats could potentially take action but they dither because they want to get the case just right or they’re afraid it will look partisan or whatever. I get it. It’s admirable to want to cross your t’s and dot your i’s. But there’s such a thing as being too rigid and circumspect, which just looks weak. And too often, Dems look weak to their own voters/potential voters. It’s not good.
brendancalling
“Let’s face it: if you took a poll of Fox Republicans, and worded the questions to avoid trigger words used by Carlson and Hannity, they would probably agree with a lot of the issues that Democrats promote. But it would make no difference when they vote, because they will only vote for someone with “R” after their name. Such is the utility of issue polling and focus groups with that audience.”
I have tested this theory informally while drinking beers with my Trumpist upstairs neighbor—who I quite like despite his politics, and vice versa—and have found this to be true. For example, when I discussed “Defund the Police” in terms of “why is it a cop’s job to deal with the homeless, a passed out junkie, or schools? They’re overworked and put in positions where police training isn’t the best fit,” he agreed 100%.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
I wish I believed this, but I feel like fighting and losing leads to plenty of recriminations about how the Dems didn’t fight hard enough or fought the fight in the wrong way somehow.
Old Man Shadow
The trouble with populism is that once rural white people find out that Those folks will also be getting government benefits, they tend to start listening to the other side’s assholes who tell them that Democrats just want to take all their hard earned money and give it all away to undeserving THOSE people.
Major Major Major Major
I actually do think the messaging around climate change is all wrong. You don’t deal with climate change with a trillion dollar jobs program, or talking about how it’s going to cause the extinction of all mankind (“existential threat”), you deal with it by starting mitigation like yesterday, being honest about geoengineering, and focusing on the overlap with things everybody hates. That means particulate pollution, traffic, droughts, coal, high fuel costs. It also means keeping your environmentalist powder dry by not annoying everybody with straw bans.
If I were a Dem I’d hammer all the ways we can help address this without significantly affecting our way of life. I’d try to avoid moralizing. This is a problem we have now, we have the technology to address it, we can build cool new things to do so, everybody likes that. Yes, this includes talking about nuclear, but guess who that polls well with? (In that page, we also see that ‘clean energy’ polls better than ‘renewable energy’–probably because everybody understands, and hates, particulate pollution!)
I do share Shor’s concern with educational polarization, but it’s hard to see what can actually be done about it. This isn’t 2012.
billcinsd
@PsiFighter37: you do know that people making less than $50,000 went for Biden in 2020 by 55-44
Another Scott
@Betty Cracker:
Exactly. Moscow Mitch is the least popular national politician (supposedly). TFG is always attacking the GQP because they won’t fight. GQP senators trying to get the vapors over Schumer’s comments is transparent nonsense. Don’t let the opening pass.
Yes, take the fight to them. Let the MAGA crowd and their enablers make a choice – stick with the whiney people who can dish out all kinds of names but can’t take honest criticism in response, or stay home.
“Gee, Uncle JimBob, you mean you’re going to vote for that weak Mitch guy again? The guy who complains that Chuck Schumer is too mean to him? Really?? I couldn’t vote for someone who whines like that…”
It gets Democrats fired up too. Win, win.
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@billcinsd:
That’s all voters, not white working class voters.
Chief Oshkosh
Speaking of being popular, I thought that the lastest CBS poll had Biden’s popularity going back up, yet the lead-off article in the WaPo is that they continue to slide due to failures, inaction, negotiations.
Major Major Major Major
@bbleh:
This is such a weird meme. Of course there are swing voters. Even if it’s only a few million people these days, which is far from decisively known, how many did Trump win by again? Fifty thousand?
topclimber
Not talking about climate change is like not using the fire alarm in a building that is on fire.
We don’t combat worse climate effects or get a national commitment to their amelioration by shutting up.
Racism is a corrosive disease that has screwed America for centuries. If we don’t stop it now, that’s a shame but the corrosion is way different than the ticking time bomb that is potential climate catastrophe. Same with immigration.
As a white liberal, perhaps I discount how imminent are the dangers of racism and xenophobia. But I am convinced we can get folks aboard the GAIA bus who will never ever change on those other two issues.
MisterForkbeard
@Chief Oshkosh: It takes the media a LONG time to shift their narrative, except in cases of “Democrats are bad now”. They’re always ready for that one.
You’d need to have more than a few polls and to see a clear upwards trend.
Fair Economist
The CA anti-recall campaign shows our route is to demonize the Republicans. Which should be easy now that they’ve thrown in with the fascists. They really *do* want to kill kids with antivax, kill women with abortion restrictions, bankrupt the country to cut corporate taxes, etc. All we have to do is get the population informed on what they are up to. Which I grant is a problem with all the Republican pet media, but I think it’s doable.
Villago Delenda Est
@Chief Oshkosh: The motherfuckin’ Village. Nuke it from orbit. Only way to be sure.
The media is very easily 50% of the problem here, because they frame everything in the GQp’s favor. They’ve got to go, and their 1% parasite corporate overlords.
Wipe them out, all of them.
Another Scott
@Old Man Shadow: I think they mostly get worried that it will be too expensive. People don’t understand how huge the US economy really is because it’s almost never talked about in the statistics. (Yeah, there are good reasons to talk about changes in GDP rather than levels, but what matters in paying for programs is levels.) They think about it in terms of numbers they deal with every day (“How on Earth can Biden give every kid $300 a month? That’s thousands of dollars a year per family! It’s not sustainable!! I couldn’t afford that!!11”). We need to do better on messaging.
“You don’t go bankrupt when you take out a 5 year car loan that cuts your expenses and gets you to where you need to be on time. You don’t go bankrupt when you take out a 30 year mortgage to get a home that cuts your rent expenses and lets you save for the future. It’s similar with the Federal government. Selling bonds helps build our future….”
The US GDP in 2020 was around $21T. In one year. $3.5T over 10 years is tiny (3.5/210 = 1.7%, and will be even less assuming reasonable GDP growth rates). It will make a huge difference to families and the economy because federal government spending has been strangled for far too long, and it’s easily affordable.
Biden and others are finally starting to talk about these giant numbers in context, but they need to do more. They should get Dean Baker on the job…
Cheers,
Scott.
Villago Delenda Est
@Major Major Major Major:
In the vile sop to slaveholders, the Electoral College, 70,000 votes in three counties and three states put TFG in the Whitehouse in 2016. OHJB didn’t win by very much more than that in 2020, when you look at state by state numbers, not the popular vote. Abolish the Electoral College, and we end this bullshit that gave us hundreds of thousands dead in Iraq and a 20 year war in Afghanistan.
Sure Lurkalot
@Chief Oshkosh:
CBS News also tells us that the public doesn’t know what’s in the BBB plan. They don’t even know a self-own when they self-own.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: Maybe you’re right, but I think the fights we pick play a role here. When I think back on lost or even won fights that polarize the party, it’s efforts that focus on policy, and since we aren’t as ideologically homogenous a group as Republicans, there are fissures that lead to recriminations, infighting, etc. The ACA is a prime example.
Maybe pick other fights more outside the legislative arena, ones where there’s broad agreement within the party and with the rest of the country? I think issues like the post office clusterfuck, idiot anti-maskers harassing schoolkids and educators, Trump and the 1/6 insurrection, partisan tampering with elections, etc., are all promising issues for us.
They’re all really important too, so worth addressing. Not fighting about critical issues like this makes us look like dithering nincompoops, and we have to address that. It’s been a problem for a long time. “Give us more seats and we’ll take action” won’t work.
Major Major Major Major
@Villago Delenda Est:
Seeing a bit of a roadblock in your plan. Alas, we have to deal with the way votes are counted.
Raoul Paste
My opinion is that Fox emotionally conditions their viewers to reflexively hate Democrats. I have no one weird trick but, for example, if I were trying to get people vaccinated, I would put commercials on TV that are visceral and affecting.
Reason yes, but emotion too
matt
Carrying that logic to its conclusion (Republicans are primed to hate Dems via their media and they’re a lost cause), what’s needed in Democratic messaging is a whole lot more hatred of Republicans
And Dem politicians NEED TO FUCKING GET RID OF the trope that ‘we need a strong Republican Party’, ‘our friends across the aisle’, ‘we disagree but we’re all honorable’, etc. Those tropes should only be used to shit on Republicans in the same breath.
Sean
@Baud:
I have tried that on some level, not in those words. I believe my dad is immovable now. I pleaded with him last year, giving up policy entirely, to beg him not to vote for Trump. It was just honest to god emotional pleas with very specific examples about my sister, my wife, myself, etc. Didn’t stop him. The confrontations really made our relationship difficult. I love my dad, but clearly he doesn’t want to be convinced.
Brantl
The voters who are being made to stand in lines for hours are mostly ours, anyway; they knew that they were going to have to stand in lines for hours, they came out anyway, and they hate the SOBs responsible for them standing in lines for hours.
cain
@rumpole:
We are surrounded by people like this Shor guy who constantly espouses that we should be afraid of our own ideas and how they are presented to the voters as it might hurt the feelings of white men.
Major Major Major Major
Important to note that Shor’s empirical claims probably ought to be taken at face value, so it’s best not to dismiss that part.
@cain: David Shor was thirteen years old in 2004
Ruckus
@Sean:
republicans can not sell their policies. Because they screw everyone but the monied. They have to sell that the opposition is bad and the only tool they have is that democrats are bad.
Their entire concept of government – democrats are bad, hire us so we can steal everything. And they can’t say the last part out loud so they only say the first part.
There are a lot more people who think like your dad and have “fox hate”. Those things he likes are good for the vast majority, no matter which side of the fence they sit. But the thieves at the top of the republican party, to be successful in their actual goals, can’t tell anyone those actual goals. So they lie about what it is the democrats are and want. As they have been doing for the last 50 or 60 yrs.
cain
@Sean:
Perhaps you should find a way to turn off Fox News and put some parental controls like some people have. Alternatively, challenge him to watch CNN/MSNBC for 1 month and compare and contrast with Fox News.
Jinchi
In related news, CNN is really trying to push Democrats into panic mode today publishing a series of catastrophic ‘Analysis’ articles, with the basic theme that Dems are screwed and there’s not much they can do about it.
Baud
@Sean:
I read a Reddit comment from guy whose father was so upset about Trump’s loss he abandoned his family and moved to Malaysia.
They were Canadian.
Baud
@Jinchi:
The media knows what gets retweeted.
Doc Sardonic
Just to throw something out here. Anybody remember the old Republican PAC ads back in the 80’s, early 90’s that threw out an issue to get the rubes worked up and suggested at the end to call (insert Democratic Congress member here) and ask them about it. Those ads flipped a lot of seats and followed a simple basic formula, much like the local news now does. Formula goes like this, here is what should scare or piss you off, here is who is doing it and this is who you need to yell at about it. Maybe it is time to flip the Republican playbook back at them.
Brantl
@Baud: Then fight to win, goddammit!
Betty Cracker
@Baud: Jesus, for real? Was he a Qanon loon? I still see Qanon stickers on cars around here sometimes. Lets me know I’m in the presence of Big Stupid.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
I hope they get the reconciliation bill done this month so they can pass it and start focusing on beating up Republicans.
Baud
@Brantl:
That’s what every team says. The other side fights to win too. Winning ain’t easy.
Doc Sardonic
@Raoul Paste: Absolutely, one of the problems we have as Democrats is that we bring our powerful logic and reasoning (knife) to bear against ignorance and emotion (gun). Not a fight you are going to have a reasonable chance to win unless you are closer than 15 feet with the logic and reasoning.
Jinchi
@matt:
I don’t think the Dems have a messaging problem at all. Their numbers are falling because they appear to be disfunctional. They have the trifecta and McConnell is still able to tie them in knots.
This is pretty much entirely on Manchin and Sinema, who appear happy to screw over the entire party just because.
If they Democrats deliver, the poll numbers will rise.
If their legislation collapses, they won’t.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
It was a real comment in a thread about family members affected by the Trump cult.
Baud
@Jinchi:
McConnell hasn’t done much. The problems are with the fringe of our caucus.
rumpole
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix: Holy crap. you are absolutely right. (Face in hands).
Citizen Alan
@Major Major Major Major:
Actually, I’ll say it once again: We can solve 90% of the problems with the EC by increasing the size of the House to 3200 or so Reps, 1 per 100,000 citizens (AS THE FUCKING FRAMERS INTENDED!). That would not only cure the EC by giving the larger states Reps proportionate to their populations, it would make the House more responsive to their constituents And it could be done by a simple act of congress without any need for an Amendment.
Granted, we’re not going to do that any time soon for a variety of reasons, none of which I consider to be good or valid reasons. But it really wouldn’t take a Constitutional Amendment to fix the EC.
Jinchi
@Baud:
Agreed, but he hasn’t had to do much. The man has openly and repeatedly threatened the economic health of the US, clearly for political gain.
His only concern is that he’ll push too far and the filibuster will be trashed.
Manchin and Sinema could simply call him up and say ‘Knock it off, or else’ and this nonsense would end. But apparently, defending the economic health of the nation isn’t a ‘moderate’ position.
matt
@Jinchi: CNN’s coverage makes a lot more sense once you know that they’re owned by AT&T, who also bankrolled OANN.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Yup, and the only answer, as ever, is to make that fringe less relevant by electing more Democrats.
Baud
@Jinchi:
Yeah, I won’t defend their behavior. I accept that some people are moderate, but I really dislike people who don’t have any self-pride.
matt
@Jinchi: I personally think the Dems and their allies need a lot more negative messaging about Republicans. This has been missing for decades now.
Manchin and Sinema are fucking the Dems. Yes, that’s true. Yes, if that wasn’t a problem they probably could win without better messaging. But they still ought to have better messaging.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
It’s pretty hard to take Shor’s argument that seriously consider the Conservatives are killing themselves not taking the vaccines, just because the Democrats do. I think the correct choice is more “Don’t drink bleach” messages out of the Biden admin just to troll the right into massive self destruction.
artem1s
when I hear this populists bullshit from privileged, white male assholes like Shor, I hear, ‘”throw women and especially black women under the bus”. BTW, I hear the same thing when someone tries to tell me it’s bad messaging to say pro-abortion. The problem is rich, white men (even ‘liberal’ ones) don’t want to have to vote for women because then they have to acknowledge they don’t want to talk about racism and misogyny. They will choose the freckless, white Republican male everyday if it means they might have to say out loud what they really think about equal right for everyone. They believe their white wives and daughters should have unlimited access to reproductive care, but those women are sluts who can’t be trusted to control their bodies. I.E. my abortion is a ‘good’ abortion and I don’t have to worry cause I don’t live in TX – or shorter version – I got mine, fuck you.
they will flip and vote R in 2024 because their greatest fear is Harris will take over if Biden dies. No amount of ‘not talking about it’ will solve Kamala’s penis problem.
JML
There is something to be said for getting your messaging right and skipping past phrases and slogans that a certain part of your base make like/respond to but that turns off persuadables. And regardless of it being a major, serious issue climate change is one of those things where Democrats haven’t found a strong message that moves votes.
I’m always a little suspect of this kind of message polling, because in my experience it usually does a poor job in assessing intensity and it’s ability to flip a vote. Does a 1% change in favorability matter? not if it’s tied to an issue than non-determinative.
I do think the Democratic Party does have a messaging problem, but it’s not the one that clowns like Shor think it is. The problem is more that when Democrats accomplish something, we stink at celebrating it and making sure that something popular and good that we did was because of us. Instead of championing what we’ve done and telling people “if you like this, vote for us because the other side will end it and never pass anything you wan ever” we spend endless hours bemoaning how much better it could have been if only we hadn’t compromised on anything, or how whatever good it does sucks because it should have been better. No one makes perfect the enemy of good better than a Democrat.
Fair Economist
@Citizen Alan: Even an infinite House doesn’t solve the EC problem. Hillary still would have lost in 2016. The shift in the margin Biden would have needed in 2020 is less than a percentage point.
artem1s
@cain:
BINGO! Also, we all know if a Dem POTUS or Congress gets something done or does well with foreign relations, the GQP will claim that victory as their own to keep those same clueless R’s from leaving the hate-nest. White men have been taught the only game in town is a zero sum game. Maybe Dems have a chance to undo some of the Greed is Good generation thinking, but it’s not going away anytime soon. We know using the One Ring will mean victory for our side. It’s hard not to go scorched earth just to win one for the home team. But every generation I see more people coming to an understanding that the Dems aren’t playing zero sum politics anymore – or at least less and less. So it’s ironic that people like Shor can’t recognize that having the difficult discussions, out loud and in public, is the most populist message you can have.
Omnes Omnibus
@JML: I agree with this. Dems who think that x was too weak should still support it by saying that x was a great first step. It’s not that hard.
Old School
@Fair Economist:
Presumably, expanding the House results in increasing electoral votes in the states as well.
bbleh
@Major Major Major Major: I stand by it. The number of actual “cross-over” voters is FAR fewer than the numbers of leaners who switch between voting and non-voting, the trend is toward things being even more this way, and in any case targeting your own (far more numerous) potential non-voters is FAR better bang for the buck than snipe-hunting for cross-overs, many of whom are low-information and/or make up their minds at the last moment on the basis of whatever drifts across the screen at the time.
Sure, fine, don’t work to alienate them or neglect them entirely, because there are elections where such voters actually do comprise the margin of victory. But again, you’re almost certainly better off investing in finding non-voters who lean your away and bringing them out; there are more of them, and they’re easier to persuade.
Major Major Major Major
@bbleh:
Congratulations, you’ve come around to Shor’s way of thinking.
Omnes Omnibus
@Major Major Major Major: I thought Schor’s thesis was to cultivate those voters. Bbleh was saying don’t piss them off unnecessarily, but otherwise don’t work to get them when the more profitable play is to bring out our leaners and make them regular voters. Or maybe I misread both.
J R in WV
@Ruckus:
Since FDR and the New Deal times, so… 1933-34 or so. So it is
close to87 years now. Social Security, Medicare, Interstate highways, everything the Federal Government does but military and policing.They hated the Apollo Moon Shot, the Hubble Space Telescope, NASA missions to Jupiter, Mars, to everywhere… all that money should have gone into tax cuts for their wealthy overlords!!
Vaccine research? Nope, send that money to the rich overlords.
Child health care? Nope, send that money to their rich overlords!
Free and Fair elections, Nope, elect stooges for the rich overlords!
ETA: exactly 87 years now since FDR hate took over the Republican Party.
Major Major Major Major
@Omnes Omnibus: it’s a spectrum. Shor liked Obama’s approach of saying “common sense” popular stuff without sacrificing policy so much. To use mistermix’s pull quote as an example: don’t be a climate doomer, focus on talking about aspects that poll well (like particulate pollution), and then do what you want: “the policies you choose to talk about”. I think it’s a valuable counter to the “swing voters are fake news so we should talk about defunding the police to really rake in small donations from Queens” takes.
J R in WV
@Betty Cracker:
Big Stupid CRAZY!!!
Edmund Dantes
@Baud: no Dems don’t. They still use really stupid messaging.
prime example is the subpoena issue.
they used words like “consider” “strongly consider”. When it should be “of course we will pursue it, and are ready as soon as possible”.
J R in WV
@artem1s:
It’s worse than VP Harris and her “penis problem”. She is also black enough to invite their racist hate as well. Monsters!
Ruckus
@Sean:
Most people, the more you argue, cajole, plead, beg, the more they stand their ground. You don’t have a lot of room to argue two completely different sides without people taking a stance. It takes time and subtlety. Convince is the process you want and that takes open communication, time and anything but argument of any kind. You say his concepts are the same, ask him to explain them, if you agree with him, explain why you both agree. It’s his mind that has to change, not yours, you have to get him to see that from his side.
Ruckus
@J R in WV:
Thank you.
I was being polite.
I won’t let it happen again.
Baud
@Edmund Dantes:
They said they would “consider” various avenues available to them for enforcing the subpoena. They did not say they were considering whether or not to enforce the subpoena. Messaging is hard enough without “our side” misrepresenting the message in order to fit it into a pre-conceived “Dems are weak” box.
Starfish
@Major Major Major Major: It sounds like this is an issue you are not deeply involved in.
I am having to read more about this because these issues are important to the state that I live in, and my child is probably experiencing “climate despair.” Some kids tend to lock in moral views fairly young and figure out the implications of an issue. That is why Greta Thunberg is the way she is too. There is a book on how to talk to your kids about climate change so they don’t get hopeless due to climate despair that I learned about last week.
Anyway, to encourage my child to feel better, and also as a long-term assignment, he is going to explore what positive actions people are taking to deal with climate change.
Our state has both oil and gas jobs and environmental jobs. Our Democratic governor could not say “Hey, all the fracking is contributing to the ozone pollution in this state” because there is a lot of money in those oil and gas jobs, and those oil and gas people lobby at the state level of government. They may be the only industry some regions have. Creating new environmental jobs that make money that can be used to drive state policy is a path out of this mess.
Environmental and Climate Justice is an area where we study how climate change is going to harm the poorest people. There are a lot of discussions about how tree canopy can help cool a place. Planting trees in the places where poor folks live so that they can stay cooler in the summer will potentially save them some money and also keep older people who have no air conditioning from dying. When we plant trees, we have to take climate change into consideration. This tree is going to live 30, 40, 100 years. What is the temperature supposed to look like in that time frame, and is the tree we have selected appropriate for that?
So far, a lot of subsidies for climate have gone to lower-upper class and upper-middle class people. Subsidies to buy new electric cars? Subsidies to buy electric bikes? Who is that going to?
For people who are not into those things, the issues have to make a meaningful difference to them. A lot of our policies don’t allow solar power for apartment buildings or places that use less electricity (places that don’t have in-unit washers and dryers) because the electric company gets a final say over the number of solar panels you can install and how much power you can dump on their grid. It is in their interest that you continue to consume their energy. Saving electricity costs may mean a lot for people making less money, but a landlord is not going to invest in solar panels because the landlord is not going to benefit from the gains of that. Those gains would go to whoever is paying the electric bill.
By figuring out how to get climate subsidies to make a meaningful difference for people who make less money, we get them more involved.
Another Scott
@Starfish: Excellent points. People need to see there real benefits of change.
Relatedly, TheHill:
The story didn’t smell right to me, so I’m not at all surprised that she’s denying it.
Always, always, beware the anonymous hot takes!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Major Major Major Major
@Starfish: I actually am involved with this issue, which is why I’m livid when national leaders and activists talk about it in a way that gives children panic attacks, or when NYC or SF spend more political capital banning straws and bags than on congestion pricing.
But yes, many local leaders are good on this front. I’m talking about high profile politicians though.
bbleh
@Omnes Omnibus: @Major Major Major Major: got me right. Contra Shor, DON’T concentrate on them, or even bother doing much cultivating. There are more cost-effective and electorally productive ways to invest time and energy.
Put another way, if we’re going to focus on “50,000 voters” (or 70,000, or whatever), why not concentrate on, say, the nearly 200,000 Alaskan Native population? Why, that’s nearly triple Trump”s margin! Or the more than 350,000 Amish!
Biggest bang for the buck is people who agree with you and just don’t vote for whatever reason — paperwork, transportation, time off, lack of peer/family support, lack of encouragement/enthusiasm, etc. There are tens of millions of them, and we know how to get their votes. Focus on them, and your efforts will also convince some of the (relatively few) cross-over voters.
GoBlueInOak
@PsiFighter37: I’ve read some long form interviews with Shor and too many people barely get past the first graf before using their own priors to hate the guy.
One of things he talks about when it comes to topics that trigger White people (who still make up the majority of voters and are disproportionately spread more broadly over the geographic landscape – which means our state based electoral college and Senate system will disproportionately depend on White voters) is NOT that minimizing talking about White people hot button topics like immigration is going to get Republicans to vote for you. He most certainly does NOT say that in any of the substantive long form interviews I have read / listened to with him.
Rather, he discusses two sides to electoral communication strategy. One side is about getting people to vote for you. The other is about minimizing the degree to which the OTHER side’s base get motivated to vote against your side. If you buy into the theory that base motivation often gets driven which side is angrier – then there is a rationale for in part shaping your communication strategy around reducing the ability of the other side to get their base angry (while also increasing your own base’s turnout enthusiasm).
He actually has had a lot of good things to say about Biden with respect to that strategy. That Biden did a good job in 2020 of being a candidate that it was hard for the GOP to demonize.
Now – one can disagree with THAT argument. But he is certainly not making the argument that half this comment thread is caricturing.
neldob
Pro-life, fiscally responsible, family values, reality based describe Democrats. We need to claim them, co-opt the violent, extremist right-wing Repuglicans. Pro-life Democrats for choice, not pro-abortion, fiscally responsible Democrats want to pay for the infrastructure bill with a tax on the super rich, family values includes helping families pay for child care, etc. Republicans have been taken over by right-wing extremists so it’s the right-wing extremist party. The other thing I have a beef with is the constant use of the word ‘fight’. That gave TFG the opening to call on his creeps to fight, to maim and kill really. We need to take violence out of politics and protests as much as possible. The optional word is ‘work’.
Another Scott
@GoBlueInOak:
And yet, Lyndon Johnson was actually the last Democrat to win the white vote.
Democrats have found ways to win in the last 50+ years without winning the majority of the white vote. It usually seems to depend on motivating people on our side to turn out. IOW, we should play to our strengths, and spend less time worrying about the other guys.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Aaron Rodgers Mustache
@Ken: did he play her “f… her gently” from the d’s eponymous debut lp?
Aaron Rodgers Mustache
@Eunicecycle: see newman, randy, Song catalog of, Rednecks
JML
@Another Scott: Turnout is absolutely critical: Democrats have often fallen down in non-presidential elections and it’s cost us gubernatorial and senate elections, not to mention more than a few House races.
but finding ways to grab a few more white votes in the rust belt and plains states could help put more senate seats in play. It wasn’t that long ago that we had Democrats from North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa…and if we can run winning candidates in Montana and Ohio, it can be done again. While gaining seats in the Senate from the SE might be more viable (hello, Carolina!) I’m a big believer in running hard everywhere so when the winds are in your favor you can take it all.
Ken Kras
Ballotopedia lists 69 counties that voted more than +10 for Obama 2012 that voted for Trump in 2016, and most of those counties went for Trump by 20+. So, in 4 years a third of the vote in those counties switched from a black Dem to hating Dems so much there’s no point in Dems pursuing them? I dunno.
Another Scott
@Starfish:
(via CherylRofer)
Cheers,
Scott.
GoBlueInOak
@Another Scott: I am absolutely aware of that particular heavily trotted out factoid. A factoid which is only relevant for winning the White House. (and even then, a Democrat can’t win the WH without being competitive with White voters even if not winning a majority of them – Biden improved over Clinton amongst non-Hispanic Whites by 4 points)
Its more about the REST of the picture that Dems like to keep glossing over – House races and State legislative races – plus Governorships and Senate seats. Democrats are well and truly f**ked if the Rust Belt continues to slide out of their column – and the Rust Belt as a region is one where non-college educated Whites are disproportionately located compared to national average. Do we need to win them all? No. But we DO need to concerned about motivating them vote against Democrats.
GoBlueInOak
@GoBlueInOak: Erik Loomis does a good job encapsulating this:
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2021/10/how-the-decline-of-unions-radicalized-the-white-working-class-in-the-wrong-way
The Dark Avenger
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Thanks for such a stirring refutation.
RaflW
Watching the status quo systems whirl up to speed as younger politicians and younger voters begin to challenge the half-century of Democratic Defensive Crouch™ shouldn’t really surprise me. Annoying none the less.
Thankfully folks like Data for Progress are out there now to counter some of the hand wringing.
Ksmiami
@Doug R: I told you all that Manchin and Sinema are actively harming Biden and our voters. Just fuck them both at this point.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ksmiami: How does that pass the bills?
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: Spoiler Alert: nothing will pass…
eddie blake
@J R in WV: uh, they LOVED the space program. the same toys that put the gemini and apollo capsules into orbit and space were what enabled america to nuke the soviet union dozens of times over with ballistics tipped with MIRV’s.
no space program, no SSBN’s, no minuteman missiles, none of that.
Tony Gerace
@rumpole: Congress is on a two-week vacation again? I hadn’t known that. Jesus H. Christ. Politics aside, the time is long overdue for members of Congress to treat their job like a real job. Work a 40-hour (or more) week, except for a couple of weeks of vacation — just like real people do. I understand that they need to go home to “meet with their constituents” (i.e., their billionaire donors) — but Jesus, be a little subtle about it. This kind of irresponsible behavior — by both parties — only feeds public cynicism.
Tony Gerace
@eddie blake: The space program was a military proof-of-concept exercise. That’s why it was funded.
eddie blake
@Tony Gerace: that’s exactly my point. JFK gussied it up, “we choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the OTHER THINGS, not because they are easy, but because they are hard.”
yeah. the other things. the nuclear boom-booms. the right LOVED that shit.