One thing we probably haven’t appreciated enough about the Trumpification of the Republican Party (and the Tea Partification that preceded the rise of Hair Furor) is that it poses a double-edged risk. One blade is against the throat of the governed. In a two-party system, when kooks have taken over one party, people in individual states and everyone in the nation faces substantial risk of finding ourselves governed by kooks.
We experienced that together as Americans for four years during the Trump Error, and those of us in states with Trumpy Republican governors are still experiencing that now, with our rights continuing to be eroded and our health put at greater risk by extremists. It looks like that risk dynamic will be in play in 2022 and probably will be again in 2024 unless the kooks are slapped down extra hard next year.
But the other side of that blade is against the throat of the kook-infested party, which may alienate regular people with their extremism and lose winnable races. We saw that happen in the Tea Party extremist heyday when nuts like that “I’m not a witch” lady, the woman who advocated paying medical bills with chickens and the “legitimate rape” dude all lost because voters recoiled from their kookery.
Josh Marshall has a paywalled piece on this phenomenon, and damn, until I read it, I had no idea what was going on in Arizona (beyond the heroic quest for self-actualization by a certain senator who represents that state whom we’re all rather weary of discussing). Here’s a CNN fact check on current GOP gubernatorial frontrunner Kari Lake, who’s endorsed by the My Pillow guy and Trump:
CNN: Lake has baselessly advocated the imprisonment of state Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, who is now running for governor, over unspecified election crimes… And Lake has said she would not have certified Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in Arizona if she had been governor. She also continues to demand the decertification of the Arizona result today, though that is a legal impossibility.
Lake was a local Fox presenter and now she’s issuing bizarre fatwas from Trump Cult Cuckooland? Could be a Democratic pickup opportunity, or the people of Arizona could end up with a governor who’s even worse than DeSantis of Florida or Abbott of Texas. As Marshall says, it’s a double-edged sword:
Gubernatorial elections in mid-term years always have an advantage for the out-party. But running Trump extremists who are demanding their opponents go to prison could end up electing Democrats. I’m not being pollyannish about. An off-year election is a good time to elect extremists. But it captures what amounts to a high-stakes double or nothing character to these next two years.
He’s probably right. Invest in Tums futures. Open thread!
Yutsano
So…go Arizona I guess…
debbie
I’d bet most states have their version of Kari Lake (in Ohio, the very oily Josh Mandel and the ever-despicable Gym Jordan, to name only two). We need to be ready to pounce on whichever candidate inspires some idiot to physical violence. It sadly seems inevitable.
Kropacetic
I’m actually cautiously optimistic. I know how midterms are for the party in power. But, in the end, there are more of us than them and they’re really conspicuously displaying their asses. Constantly.
Roger Moore
It’s not clear that their governor isn’t worse already. The media hasn’t made as big a deal about it, but Arizona (282) is ahead of Florida (271) and Texas (234) in the coveted “most COVID deaths per 100,000 inhabitants” category.
SiubhanDuinne
This — from the lawyer for the plaintiffs in TFG’s deposition today — is cracking me up!
Elegant.
Baud
@Roger Moore: Doesn’t that help our chances?
Kropacetic
The Republicans can keep that competition to themselves. Wait, they can’t? Oh, that’s gonna be a problem, then.
Baud
It is interesting to contrast AZ with what’s going on in VA, where the Trump-endorsed GOP nominee for governor has been trying to play both sides (Trumpists and people horrified by Trumpists but who desire a traditional GOP daddy type).
bbleh
Commented on a thread elsewhere about this same phenomenon: Trump himself seems to be both a turnoff for some Republicans and motivator for a substantial number of Democrats, and the question is whether these effects will extend to Trump imitators / Trump-ism, and if so to what degree. My guess is yes but to a materially lesser degree, which then raises the further question, which races will it be enough to tip?
One lesson I think is clear: Dems should not steer clear of the Crazy. Even the most staid country-club Republican candidate should be shackled to Trump and the rest of the wacko cult, and the ones who actively embrace the Crazy should be featured at their worst in a big chunk of any Dem’s ads. IMO Trump is more of an asset for Dems than Reps now, and Dems should exploit this ruthlessly.
The Pale Scot
This made my day.
Drunk dude orders an Uber for baby bird he found on the ground. Wraps it up and sends it off to the rehab by itself
https://twitter.com/WholesomeMeme/status/1449866337615060998/photo/1
Betty Cracker
@Baud: I wonder how anyone can pull that off these days. That was DeSantis’s strategy in 2018, and it worked. But that was before Trump’s idiocy killed hundreds of thousands of people and he fomented a violent coup. Do reporters ask Youngkin what he’d do about the pandemic and if he believes the big lie?
Kropacetic
Truth. Some Republicans may comport themselves better than others, but the actions are always the same. Harm is what I care about, not whether they’re polite.
Betty Cracker
@The Pale Scot: Awww! Hope the lil’ birb makes it.
cintibud
Just saw the morning thread and too late to post this there. There is apparently talk that if the GQP takes the house they will make TFG the speaker, putting him 3rd in line for the presidency. They will then attempt to impeach and remove Biden and Harris so TFG can be returned to his throne.
This looks like a great opportunity for the Dems to pursue. Ask all repubs if they will vote for TFG for speaker and/or plan to impeach Joe. The logical course will be to deny any such intensions but can you imagine how TFG would react to someone saying that? He’d sic his followers on that apostate.
GQP office holders will probably have to tip toe around that line, leaving both sides unsatisfied. This could be another self own.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
I don’t follow closely enough to know. My guess is that he acts like a traditional Republican for the mainstream media, and acts Trumpy in more closed settings. The media habitually accepts Republicans at face value, so it could work.
Baud
@cintibud: Meh, they’ll just say that they won’t answer hypotheticals and no reporter is going to force them too.
Cameron
Dunno about 2022, but the biggest threat to Democrats that I see today is two senators from their own party.
Kropacetic
@cintibud: We discussed a similar path to get Clinton into the White House. I think this is about as serious. Of course, there may be a benefit in the performative outrage.
Republicans have demonstrated time and again you can get a lot of people highly animated about shit that just isn’t true.
cintibud
@Baud: AD – JOE REPUBLICAN REFUSES TO DENY HE/SHE WILL MAKE TRUMP SPEAKER! DENIES THAT HE/SHE PLANS TO IMPEACH BIDEN GOING IN! (etc)
We can’t count on the media to make our arguments for us
Baud
@cintibud: No we can’t. But I also don’t think “not denying” something is very persuasive to a lot of voters. It should be, perhaps, but it doesn’t seem to be, from what I’ve seen.
cope
I’m in my seventy second year and reckon I‘ll see two or maybe three more presidential elections. I am really pissed that all of them as well as the intermittent off year elections are such high stakes events and with truly unimaginable consequences should the bad guys win.
My whole life seems to have required a “just wait until…” view of the future. “Just wait until you get to college and all the idiots will be left behind. Then, “just wait until you get to grad school and all the idiots will be left behind”. Those faulty world views were followed by “just wait until you have a stable professional life where competence is valued”. That too proved to be illusory.
Now that I have retired, that energy goes into thinking “just wait until the next election and things will improve”.
Sadly, I’m running out of elections and energy.
The Thin Black Duke
Good evening, folks. Because I needed a break from politics, here’s my latest essay where I unashamedly go Full Frontal Fanboy and pontificate on the great Steve Ditko, the original artist and co-creator of everybody’s favorite webslinger. This was back in the day when comics were a dime and Marvel was Stan, Jack, and Steve.
Baud
@cope:
There really has never been a time when we haven’t had to deal with idiots.
DFH
Just FYI, the Josh Marshall post isn’t behind a paywall, although many from his Editor’s blog are.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-road-to-2024
Jacel
Remember: Arizona had a Democratic Governor, Janet Napolitano, for six years until 2009 when Obama appointed her to his cabinet. Letting Republicans take over that state did more to undermine our nation’s security than Napolitano could possibly to improve things heading the Department of Homeland Security.
But having a Democrat be Governor of Arizona isn’t a distant pipe dream.
cintibud
@Baud: True, but that’s mostly for stuff that doesn’t really motivate most voters. Examples in the past if someone wouldn’t deny that they would try to overturn Roe v Wade or privatize social security. The attitude usually is “Nah, they wouldn’t really try to do that”. That doesn’t apply to TFG – anything is possible from him (anything bad that is). It’s believable. Dems just have to push.
Heck, don’t even say “They won’t deny” Say “They will!” GQP does it all the time. Again, their voters are different but TFG fears motivate many voters
sab
@Kropacetic: Hopefully. Last time Ohio’s Republicans had a choice between an old fashioned Republican (albeit an with strong pro-life religious beliefs) and a screaming Trump harpy and they batted her down resoundingly. Still hoping we go for the sensible choice. Kasich and Portman were never sensible or moderate, but they always said they were and the press pretended to believe them.
gene108
@Cameron:
I worry that they’ve sucked a lot of enthusiasm out of a lot of irregular Dem voters, who we need to win, but are hard to get to care enough to vote.
Turn out is what wins elections.
Ksmiami
@Cameron: I’d oust them -let them switch to the GOP I think they wouldn’t enjoy it very much
cope
@Baud: I finally did learn that lesson, probably some years after I should have. What chaps my hide now is that the idiots seem to have become more numerous and definitely have become more militant.
UncleEbeneezer
Just started this great podcast, Southlake, that is about the battle in Southland Texas over diversity/inclusion policies in their high school and how it turned into a White-lash over Critical Race Theory™. It is very good but extremely infuriating to listen to.
TLDL- In 2017 and 2018 videos surfaced of white teens using the N-word and Black students/parents became outraged and demanded substantive change for their school. So a board was created that spent 18 months coming up with a plan/cirriculum but then White parents freaked the fuck out at the idea that their kids might actually be held accountable (for unintended racism) or that they would have to listen to Black people in defining racist micro-aggressions. As always, White people made it all about themselves and tried to cast themselves as the Real Victims!!1! and of course, Trump, Tucker Carlson et al, helped fuel the fire of White Fragility. Anyways, it would be a great series/topic for a deep dive by a BJ front-pager and/or a Black voice within the BJ community. We need to figure out how to win these local fights.
sab
@Kropacetic: Haven’t talked to my brother in four years. Yes i feel a big pang, but if I talk to him we will argue. What the fuck happened to these people’s morals and values? The more reasonable ones pretend that we are not dismantling our democracy for racism and tax breaks, but we visibly are.
Roger Moore
@cintibud:
This is an ongoing problem for Democrats. If you describe the actual Republican platform to voters, most of them refuse to believe it’s true. They just can’t accept that any real political party would have a platform that bad, so they ignore it. How do you deal with that?
zhena gogolia
The Thin Black Duke
@zhena gogolia: The midterms in 2022 will let us know whether if enough people are paying attention.
Baud
@cope: I’m not sure if they are more numerous. I think they have become concentrated in one political party that now depends on them, and social media has enabled them to organize in a way they couldn’t before.
IMHO, our biggest problem isn’t really the crazies. It’s the middle people who for some reason think our side is the mirror image of the crazies.
O. Felix Culpa
@Betty Cracker: Apparently the birb did make it. YouTube of Petey Uber being released.
Baud
@gene108:
I wish we had two better Senators to deal with, but irregular Dem voters traditionally have been easily dis-enthused.
Kropacetic
Because the other side accuses us of committing every heinous act they do and defend themselves on everything. We’re circumspect about accusations and will go after our own people.
Without knowing much, it looks like a big mess and too many people are unwilling or unable to sort it all out.
Cameron
@Baud: That’s why I’m both pissed and discouraged. If Manchin and Sinema torpedo the reconciliation bill – and I think they will, she ’cause she’s wifty and he ’cause he’s a dick – there will be a heapiin” helpin’ of “you broke your promises/you can’t deliver/we’re still screwed,” etc., etc. And, naturally, Our Liberal Media will lay it on with a shovel; Christ, some of them are declaring Biden’s presidency dead in the water and he hasn’t even been in office for a full year.
Suzanne
@Jacel: Katie Hobbs is a good gubernatorial candidate.
Any Dem that wins statewide there will be pretty much in the Janet mold: fairly centrist and non-flashy.
Baud
@Kropacetic:
I can see that. I’m a yellow dog Dem and loyal Juicer, but over the years I have often found many of the conversations and debates that we and the broader Internet and media more confusing than enlightening.
Baud
@Cameron: I don’t know if anything will pass, but I’m currently more worried about something passing and people being disappointed about what’s not in it rather than excited about what’s in it.
Burnspbesq
@SiubhanDuinne:
Tells me what I need to know—it was a f’in circus.
Cameron
@Baud: Like the old AA saying, “One is one drink too many, and a hundred is never enough.” (centrists vs. lefties.) I certainly hope something passes, and that it satisfies all the interested parties so they’ll show up at the polls.
Kropacetic
I’d prefer they weed out the blaring Trumpets too. Still, even the staid Republican moneymen will often deign to self displays of ass as well. They’re typically worse at managing the fallout too.
The correct answer is “My ass should be out and why isn’t yours?”
schrodingers_cat
A good antidote to all the doom and gloom peddled across the board is Teri Kanefield’s Twitter account and her You Tube videos.
Kay
@zhena gogolia:
Members of Congress cannot run on “I voted for Biden’s judges”
Surely the answer to this is not lowering the bar to the point where Congress can accomplish nothing and still demand Dem voters come out. If the plan is to run on Biden’s executive actions they better come up with a new plan. That isn’t going to work.
Baud
@Kay:
If we’re getting that badly off, maybe the House should just pass the infrastructure plan. I’m glad they a fighting for more, but at some point it’s time to move on.
raven
@sab: I’m at eight and not expecting anything to change.
Baud
@Baud:
A = Are
KayInMD (formerly Kay (not the front-pager))
@Betty Cracker: So far as I can tell, Younkin mostly runs out the back door when approached by reporters. I think he’s trying to run out the clock without answering those pesky questions like “what he’d do” or “what he believes.” He’s quite the weasel, Younkin is.
SuzieC
@sab: In this case, the sensible choice is Tim Ryan, right? I don’t see a sensible choice on the R side. They are all trying to out-Trump each other. Except State Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians, who has taken a few more moderate positions. For example, what passes for moderate these days: he believes that Pres. Biden is the duly elected President.
Baud
@Cameron:
I haven’t heard that one before. I like it.
lowtechcyclist
@Roger Moore:
Of course, that was back in the day when the Rethugs had a platform. Now they just rail against the real and (mostly) imagined sins of the left.
Yutsano
@Baud: The main infrastructure bill has already passed the Senate so once the House gets that one it’s law. It’s the reconciliation bill that has the big goodies that both houses need to pass. So there will still be infrastructure including rural broadband. Some stuff will get done.
sab
Don’t we win the House seat by seat? All politics is local?
Senate is a whole different ball game.
Kropacetic
I can easily cope with a stripped-down reconciliation bill, even if they go beyond the current proposed cuts to the bill. I would be crushed if nothing got done. I would be offended if the bipartisan infrastructure bill passed and no reconciliation.
No outcome would be enough to keep me from voting. The latter two outcomes may push me* to a quixotic insurgent run for office. I know no one here wants that, so let’s get it done.
*I was going to wait until the blue fairy made me a real boy, buuuuuutttttttttt….
They can run on “we seated X number of judges” if it’s the right crowd and X is sufficiently large.
Baud
@Yutsano:
I understand that. But the progressives have linked the two. I support that because it’s the only way to get Manchin to deal. But IMHO we’re not really helping the progressives be tough negotiators if we’re worrying about losing because nothing is getting done. The House could get something popular down tomorrow if we want to go down that route.
Baud
@Kropacetic:
Same here. None of this matters to me in terms of my voting.
Cameron
@Kay: Maybe they could pump up the supply-change deal as “Uncle Joe Saves Christmas?” Although that’s a stretch.
Kay
@Baud:
Scolding voters that they’re not loyal enough isn’t going to work. They’re not loyal. They barely pay attention. This criticism of them is not even applicable to them. It’s a category error.
If you have to go that route use negative partisanship. Run against Trump. That’s what they used in California and Virginia. The more attention he gets the better.
SuzieC
@Baud: same here. It’s another case of drag me over broken glas to vote, even though at present I am at home with a fractured sacrum.
Kropacetic
If the deal gets the job done or even merely makes tangible improvements, why not? Something doesn’t have to be true to be widely believed. It doesn’t even really have to be plausible.
Baud
@Kay:
I’m not scolding anybody. I agree that something has to get done.
Cameron
@Cameron: Ooops. “Change” = “chain.”
JPL
sorta on topic
They have always been spiteful. It’s part of their makeup.
Bill Kristol wrote an article today about Powell. In the article he said he wasn’t sure why he didn’t run for president against Clinton. Kristol has a short term memory problem then, because it was quickly reported that his wife was on medication for depression. That information was leaked by a republican. That is the republican party.
Geminid
@Cameron: Expectations are an incalculable factor. Until Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff pulled off unexpected wins in the Georgia runoffs, I had no expectation that we would see a $1.9 trillion American Recovery Act for Covid relief, or one dime out of the Build Back Better bill. So to me, even if the latter comes in at $1.5 trillion instead of $3.5 trillion, that’s “house money,” so to speak.
I will come out for the midterms like I’ll come out for the Virginia state elections next month, and so will my Democratic friends. I can’t say what low propensity and new voters will do, because I don’t really know any. But we are in a time where negative partisanship is a strong dynamic, and the Republicans will give people plenty to vote against. And economic growth versus stagnation is still, I think, the strongest of political dynamics. Between the Recovery Act and spending from the two “infrastructure” bills, the economy should be prospering next year, so I like our chances in the midterms.
That’s not to say Republicans won’t try to subvert the process. That will probably be their only only chance to get back into power. So I worry more about that than Democratic turnout.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Me three. One side wants to see me dead or deported, the other may not give me everything on my wish list. There is just no contest between the choices here from where I sit.
Baud
@Geminid:
Seriously. If we did nothing but cave to Manchin’s demands, the package would be 100 times better than anything the GOP could do.
Kropacetic
On repeat.
And at least Manchin seems to have backed off the demand that the Democrats can only govern with the consent of the Republicans.
Mai Naem mobile
Kari Lake is cray cray and that’s why I want her to win the GOP primary(Claire McCaskill strategery.) But she does have non-cray cray opposition in the primary – former US Rep Matt Salmon and Karrin Robson. Salmon and Robson are both LDS. Robson is from an AZ Pioneer LDS family who have been involved in real estate development for decades so she can self fund in a big way. If either one of those two were running without the other I would have figured the LDS vote would have gotten them the win but the two might split the LDS vote. Then there’s Steve Gaynor a rich guy conservative whack job who thinks he’s knows how to run government because he’s rich. He barely lost to Katie Hobbs for SOS in 2018.
sab
@SuzieC: I am a Democrat, so the current Republican slate looks almost uniformly insane. Jane Timken scared me, but if she cant fundraise she can’t get votes.
Tim Ryan’s Democratic opponent is a weird not quite a Democrat progressive who is too whatever for AOC so I am a lot rlaxed.
Tim Ryan is not a Bernie Bro. Tim Ryan is a pretty solid traditional Democrat.
I don’t suppose most of the jackals have noticed, but for years I did not like him at all. Then he came around by marrying an actual reproductive woman who was a teacher, and he came around on reproductive issues, and on guns (in schools.).
Other than guns and abortions I have always liked him. I do actually believe he changed his views on guns and abortion because he talked to his wife ( a classroom teacher) and his wife (a childbearing woman) and got away from the priests and his grandfather.) That is way to personal for any politician to discuss, much less a decent humane being, but it does sync with his views.
Kay
@Baud:
They set this up. Joe Biden defined his agenda as BBB. For God’s sake it was his campaign theme. Sporadic voters won’t be the people who will define it not passing it a failure. Everyone will. That’s because it will be. It’s do or don’t do time and it isn’t only Biden who only gets two years to pass anything big. It’s true for all of them. I expect them to get it done and if they don’t it’s not the voters fault- it’s not their job to craft legislation and get it thru congress. They did their job. They elected these people.
They wont care if it’s 1.5 trillion or 3.5 trillion but failing completely? They better run against Trump if that’s the case. They wont have any choice.
Kropacetic
He was part of the little moderate rebellion against Pelosi, I believe.
When he ran for President, I was expecting to not like him very much, but I actually saw an often insightful mainstream Democrat. Ohio would do well to elect him Senator.
sab
@schrodingers_cat: I respect your fears and feelings, but you are one of us now. They really have to blow things up unimaginably to deport you. You are one of us now.
TriassicSands
@Baud:
But you have to be crazy to think that. Or really, really, really stupid.
Being crazy makes it easier to be stupid. And being stupid makes it easier to be crazy.
If one leaves the bubble of Balloon Juice and talks to the general population of registered Democrats, the level of ignorance and disengagement is truly depressing. From there, it gets worse.
Kay
@sab:
I think Ryan is strong too. It may not be enough in this Trumpy, Right wing state but he’s a good fit and he has a really responsive campaign. I currently have a trunk full of his campaign lit. It’s freaking unheard of for the boonies to get this much attention. He will MAYBE get 8k votes here. They call us constantly- real people, with names, and the same people.
debbie
@sab:
Are you talking about Morgan Harper?
schrodingers_cat
@sab: I know that. I was just stating the intentions of the Republicans under the Orange One.
Ruckus
@cope:
Welcome to my world. Would it be OK to call you a poor bastard because we both live in this timeline?
sab
@Kropacetic: He has abjectly apologized repeatedly for that and Pelosi (who understands youngish Itlaian male political idiots) has long since acepted his apology and restored him to political respectability.
He won his whole district by a landslide in 2016 and lost his neighborhood.
rikyrah
This is for Quinerly:
Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) tweeted at 5:30 PM on Mon, Oct 18, 2021:
?JUST IN—FDA is planning to allow people to receive a different #COVID19 vaccine as a booster than initially received. Recent NIH study shows J&J recipients who got a Moderna booster saw antibody levels ⬆️76-fold in 15 days, vs 4x after an extra J&J shot.
https://t.co/ViZ1Hyv6S8
(https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1450227873755844614?t=TtXeEaKjzuLFsk7o6o4txQ&s=03)
Ruckus
@Baud:
Correct but.
The total fucking idiots of the always back couldn’t do as much damage as the total fucking idiots of today.
Geminid
@Mai Naem mobile: I’ve halfway paid attention to Arizona politics since krazy Kelli Ward pulled in 39% of the vote in her primary challenge to John McCain in 2016. Now Ward is state GOP Chairman. From what you say, Arizona’s Republican primaries will bear watching, along with those in Georgia and Ohio (rooting for injuries of course).
And now I read that the candidate that trump endorsed for the open North Carolina Senate seat has pulled even in fundraising with former Governor Pat McCrory! I’m going to need a bigger popcorn popper.
Kay
I volunteered as a poll worker this cycle and our Bd of Elections sent me a training date with no start time and no location. I sort of know where to go and I would guess “9” as the start time but when they complain about no poll workers they might want to fix this. It shouldn’t take 4 emails.
germy
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/18/politics/donald-trump-deposition-2015-case/index.html
He testified for four hours! Who says he lacks stamina?
Kay
@Ruckus:
The Right wing Democrats who fucked up the ACA were actually head and shoulders above this crew, because at least they presented their demands. “We hate abortion and we are having a hissy fit!” That can dealt with. These people just lie. You can’t even call it a negotiation- it’s basically gaslighting.
germy
@Kay:
Today it’s paid spoilers engaging in delaying tactics.
Ruckus
@raven:
I’m at 7. And really not expecting a change any time soon.
MomSense
LePage has already announced his candidacy for Governor here in Maine. Susan Qollins endorsed him. I wish I had a better read on the situation. If voters were sane and reasonable, Mills would win in a landslide. It’s a mid term year, Republicans are out for blood, and progressives are pissed about a couple of vetoes. All of the good governance and stellar pandemic response don’t seem to be getting any play by local media.
Kropacetic
I didn’t know. That it remains the sole national media penetrating counterpoint to his solidness as a Democrat speaks well to him. Makes sense they would bury the hatchet, both are clearly beyond sharp enough to recognize that perpetuating intraparty fights beyond their own reasonable scope doesn’t help anyone.
Must be weird going home.
SiubhanDuinne
@Burnspbesq:
Exactly. You don’t have to squint very hard to read between the lines: TFG screamed, pounded his tiny fists, frothed at the mouth, glowered, and sulked.
Ruckus
@Kay:
Agreed.
sab
@sab: I pretty much trust him. He has changed his positions over the years. It hasn’t been slimy or corrupt. It has been more a thoughtful young man (is there such a thing?) re-thinking more his earlier positions
ETA Time ran out on comments on Tim Ryan.
Kropacetic
@MomSense: With the obvious exceptions of Qollins and Snowe, it’s exceedingly rare for Republicans in Maine to get more votes than the Democrats and D-aligned independents combined statewide. Since they instituted IRV, I have a hard time seeing LePage win again. I don’t care what year it is.
Kay
@germy:
Manchin is sleazy and the nepotism in that family rivals the Trumps. I don’t agree with Right wing Democrats but I know it’s a broad ideological coalition so if he had played it straight I would have been okay with it, but he chose to play these dishonest games and he’s harming the whole Party. His downside passed 50% and is rocketing upward. I wouldn’t give him his infrastructure bill without reconciliation. Behavior this bad shouldn’t be rewarded. Let him go home with nothing. They’ll take a huge hit on BBB anyway. Don’t give him what he wants.
Geminid
@Kay: An “all Ohio” campaign could pay off for Ryan. If he can move enough 65-35% Republican counties to 60-40%, that could be enough votes to win. I don’t think Ryan needs to pursue a “conversion” strategy so much as just pay attention to voters everywhere.
sab
@Kropacetic: I don’t know. Live on the other end of his highly gerrymadered district. Ask Goku, who lives near his woods.
Kay
@germy:
Manchin lives in a state where most of his voters will gain w/a 60K family limit on child credit. They’re lower wage. 60k is two parents making 15 bucks an hour each. That’s HIS voters. So he took care of his own ass and hung the D’s from more prosperous states out to dry. They shouldn’t be punished for coming from more prosperous states and having a higher average income. Their middle class is higher than his.
sab
@debbie: Yep.
Kay
@Geminid:
That’s what Sherrod does. It’s more than being clever though- they hire good people and they keep them. They’re good managers. I was afraid he’d be a big mess because he strikes me as that- honestly I always thought he was kind of an oaf but it’s just a perfect campaign.
debbie
@sab:
She’s definitely a progressive. My gripe with her is that she keeps trying to run against other established Democrats (last time, it was Joyce Beatty). She’s cannibalizing the party when she should be trying to expand the party.
She worked with Rich Cordray at the CFPB, but otherwise has no political experience.
WaterGirl
@MomSense: The idea of going back to a crazy governor in Maine after sanity for at least a little while would be unbearable.
MomSense
@Kropacetic:
Ranked Choice Voting doesn’t apply to statewide elections for Governor (2017 Law Court decision). It was a casualty of one of the many legal challenges to the law.
Baud
@MomSense:
That’s a distributing thought.
sab
@schrodingers_cat: My sister has Chinese in-law relatives Her husband has a green card. Her children’s father is naturalized.. She has learned fluent Mandarin. This is who we are as Americans. We aren’t just some British failed colony..
I get frothing at the mouth upset about this. We have always been a nation of immigrants. My grandmother in Wisconsin was the child of a Canadian bankers daughter and the son of an Irish laborer, but she learned to speak fluent German in her Wisconsin home town.
My immediate family has been here since the Mayflower, and earlier down South.
This is who we are and have been.
Kropacetic
@MomSense: Well, they better settle on one Democrat to vote for, then. Given there’s a D incumbent, I don’t foresee that being a problem.
That ruling may actually cut against them because the only currently declared independent candidacy is a Republican former state senator (ETA: Double-checked, he’s only a maybe).
What are these vetoes anyway?
MomSense
@Kropacetic:
One has to do with not closing a horrible juvenile detention facility. It seemed to escape the drafters of this legislation that they actually needed a plan for where they would go if it were closed.
Kropacetic
@MomSense: You’re right, the legislature shouldn’t leave an administration to ad hoc that shit. Are the bills still being worked on? Can we just put the detainees on ankle bracelets? They’re kids, kids who would be removed from what you said were horrible conditions.
MomSense
@Kropacetic:
It takes quite a bit to be sentenced. I don’t know where those kids would go even with an ankle bracelet. Sadly this is my world. They don’t have appropriate placement options and our foster system is already in bad shape.
Kropacetic
@MomSense: Tragic. I’m glad to see the legislature is at work on this and hope the work continues to fruition.
MomSense
The other factor is Troy Jackson, Senate President, has sponsored a couple of the bills. He is plain spoken, charismatic, and a fucking egomaniac. A PAC he supposedly knew nothing about (headed up by someone in the machinists Union everyone in Dem politics knows) floated a Run Troy Run primary challenge. Hopefully it has withered. Some of us have been working our contacts to run opposing letters to the editor and to comment on their posts.
The number 2 person in the Senate is someone I helped get elected her first campaign for state rep. I literally out organized the former speaker of the house and a bunch of other MOC to get her on the ballot. She’s good about keeping me in the loop.
slybrarian
@Baud:
Progressives did not link the two. Joe Biden did. Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi did. Even Joe Manchin did. Progressives just accepted the plan because it was presented as the best way to get the overall package passed. Manchin and Sinema do not get to come back months after the fact and say, “actually, you get only the Republican-approved part of the plan” and expect everyone else to cave in. The Progressive caucus and their counterparts in the Senate need to hold firm on not passing the Republican-approved BIF until the whole BBB plan is passed, even if the BBB ends up being smaller in dollar amounts than originally agreed on.
Honestly, at this point it feels like what the progressives really should be doing is looking at the NDAA and saying, “actually, this huge and even more expensive military bill doesn’t get passed either until BBB does” and see whether Sinema and Manchin suddenly start to cooperate.
Baud
@MomSense:
Why can’t he wait until after Mills’ term is done?
Baud
@slybrarian:
If progressives came out tomorrow agreeing to vote on the infrastructure deal, I don’t think the leadership would say no.
MomSense
@Baud:
He probably will have to wait. He’s obnoxious. We have term limits so it does create some pressure.
Kropacetic
He has declined.
MomSense
@slybrarian:
I would be happy if they announced investigations into Manchin’s daughter’s pharma company’s price gouging.
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid:
Global warming doesn’t care what our expectations are. There ain’t no ‘house money’ until we’re addressing that in a big way.
lowtechcyclist
@Kropacetic:
I don’t know shit about Ohio politics, but it sure looks from here like he’s about as good as we can do in that state. And picking up that seat would be big.
Ksmiami
I think Biden and Pelosi tell Mancinema the deal gets done by end of month. No more stalling. If it tanks, so be it, we can focus on good governance
Dan B
@MomSense: Wasn’t that the epipen massive price increase in an opioid epidemic?
schrodingers_cat
@sab: We seem to alternate between periods where we lionize immigrants and where we demonize them.
For RWNJs who love them some xenophobic Orange Man, the only good immigrants are their immigrant ancestors.
MomSense
@Dan B:
Yes, yes it was.
Another Scott
@cintibud:
Like this Terry for Virginia ad? (0:30)
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: The October, 2019 IPCC Report calls for a carbon neutral world economy by the year 2050 in order to avoid the worst effects of global warming. I too want to see us make progress towards that goal, and the federal government must accelerate the movement that is already under way. If the clean energy transition measures in the Biden plan are not included in this final bill, we’ll have to find another way. But there is a lot already being done by the federal government and other entities, so it’s not like this is our only and last hope to avert climate disaster. We have to keep Republicans out of power, though, because they will undo just about anything Democrats can do.
Quinerly
@rikyrah: thanks!
I just read the NYT piece on this. I’m on it Sat at the weekend event Santa Fe has at the Farmer’s Market. ?
cintibud
@Another Scott: Yeah, that’s what I’m talking about!
Aaron Rodgers Mustache
@SuzieC: the dolans gave into the woke mob, though, & dishonored alex sockalexis in order to suck up to the wokeness monsters under the bed