Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Every decision we make has lots of baggage with it, known or unknown.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

If a good thing happens for a bad reason, it’s still a good thing.

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

Tide comes in. Tide goes out. You can’t explain that.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

“I was told there would be no fact checking.”

These are not very smart people, and things got out of hand.

Republicans in disarray!

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

If you cannot answer whether trump lost the 2020 election, you are unfit for office.

This chaos was totally avoidable.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

The “burn-it-down” people are good with that until they become part of the kindling.

Let there be snark.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

So many bastards, so little time.

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

Not loving this new fraud based economy.

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Friday / Saturday, Oct. 22-23

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Friday / Saturday, Oct. 22-23

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Reader Interactions

53Comments

  1. 1.

    Steeplejack (phone)

    I just passed the six-month anniversary of my second Pfizer shot on Wednesday. Guess I’ll see if I can get a booster next week.

  3. 3.

    YY_Sima Qian

    On 10/22 China reported 38 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 6 new domestic asymptomatic cases & 1 domestic suspect case.

    Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 11 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic suspect cases. There currently are 36 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic suspect cases in the region.

    • Ejina Banner in Alxa League reported 9 new domestic confirmed (7 residents at Dalaihob Township & 2 at Ceke border crossing), 2 are traced close contacts & 7 were found via mass screening of all residents. There currently are 23 active domestic confirmed cases there. The Dalaihob Township remains at High Risk.
    • Alxa Left Banner in Alxa League did not report any new domestic positive case. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in there, at Bayanhot. 1 sub-district of Bayanhot Township remains at Medium Risk
    • Erenhot in Xilingol League reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases, both traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine since 10/19. There currently are 12 active domestic confirmed cases there. 3 communities are currently at Medium Risk.
    • Hohhot reported 1 new domestic suspect case, a tour guide who had been taking groups to Gansu & Ejina Banner. The city reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases on 10/23, both had ridden the same sleeper train as domestic confirmed cases reported by Yinchuan in Ningxia & Beijing

    Xi’an in Shaanxi Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed cases in the city.

    Ningxia “Autonomous” Region reported 3 new domestic confirmed & 2 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region.

    • Wuzhong reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, a traced close contact. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
    • Yinchuan reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, both traced close contacts already under quarantine. There currently are 5 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.

    Gansu Province reported 17 new domestic confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic). There currently are 35 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.

    • Lanzhou reported 13 new domestic confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic), all of the new cases are members of the same tour group that reported 3 domestic confirmed cases on 10/21, who had been traveling through Gansu & Ejina Banner in Inner Mongolia. There currently are 26 active domestic confirmed cases in the city. 2 residential compounds are at Medium Risk.
    • Zhangye reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases, both traced close contacts. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed cases in the city.
    • Jiayuguan reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, a traced close contact of the domestic confirmed case reported by Changsha in Hunan Province. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases in the city.
    • Longnan reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, a traced close contact (tour bus driver of the group that tested positive at Lanzhou).

    Hebei Province reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 4 active asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • Xingtai did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
    • Baoding reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, both tourists returning from travel across Gansu & Ejina Banner in Inner Mongolia.

    Zunyi in Guizhou Province reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, both traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 2 residential compounds have been elevated to Medium Risk.

    Beijing Municipality reported 6 new domestic confirmed cases (2 mild & 4 moderate), a 5 person party that had gone on a driving tour through Ningxia, Shanxi & Ejina Banner in Inner Mongolia. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed & 1 asymptomatic cases in the city. The Medium Risk community has been elevated to High Risk.

    Haidong in Qinghai Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city.

    Tianmen in Hubei Province did not report any new domestic positive cases, both tourists who had visited Gansu & Ejina Banner in Inner Mongolia in the 1st half of Oct., & were driving through Hubei on their way home in Guangdong.

    Changsha in Hunan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, both tourists who had recently returned from travel across Gansu & Ejina Banner in Inner Mongolia.

    Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases (all at Ruili, all persons already under centralized quarantine). There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 18 active domestic asymptomatic cases at the prefecture.

    At Fujian Province 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 19 active domestic confirmed cases remaining in the province, all at Xiamen.

    At Heilongjiang Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining in the province, at Harbin.

    At Ürumqi in Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region the last domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation.

    At Henan Province there currently are 5 active domestic confirmed cases remaining, all at Shangqiu.

    Imported Cases

    On 10/22, China reported 12 new imported confirmed cases (2 previously asymptomatic), 11 imported asymptomatic cases:

    • Shanghai Municipality – 3 confirmed cases, a Chinese national returning from the UK (via Zürich), a Russian national coming from Russia & a Serbian national coming from Serbia
    • Guangxi “Autonomous” Region (location not specified) – 2 confirmed & 2 asymptomatic cases, no information released
    • Xiamen in Fujian Province – 2 confirmed cases, both Chinese nationals returning from Singapore 
    • Gengma County in Lincang, Yunnan Province – 1 confirmed & 1 asymptomatic cases, no information released
    • Kunming in Yunnan Province – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released
    • Tianjin Municipality – 1 confirmed case (previously asymptomatic), a Chinese national returning from Singapore; 1 asymptomatic case, no information released, yet
    • Qingdao in Shandong Province – 1 confirmed case, a Filipino crew member off a cargo ship w/ last port of call in Russia
    • Shenyang in Liaoning Province – 1 confirmed case, no information released
    • Foshan in Guangdong Province – 1 confirmed case (previously asymptomatic), coming from Turkey; 1 asymptomatic case, coming from Guinea, off a flight that landed at Guangzhou
    • Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province – 4 asymptomatic cases, 1 each coming from Nigeria, Tanzania, Mexico & Suriname
    • Deyang in Sichuan Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Angola (via Germany; the case had arrived at Shenyang in Liaoning Province on 10/29, passed through the 14 days of centralized quarantine & tested negative multiple times, upon release from quarantine on 10/14 the case flew to Chengdu & was transferred to Deyang & re-entered centralized quarantine, testing positive on 10/22

    Overall in China, 19 confirmed cases recovered (17 imported), 13 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (12 imported) & 3 were reclassified as confirmed cases (2 imported), & 775 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 549 active confirmed cases in the country (414 imported), 7 in serious condition (1 imported), 385 active asymptomatic cases (354 imported), 1 suspect case (imported). 26,626 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.

    As of 10/22, 2,243.018M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 2.468M doses in the past 24 hrs.

    On 10/23 Hong Kong reported 6 new positive cases, all imported.

  4. 4.

    NeenerNeener

    Monroe County, NY:

    Monroe County website says 203 new cases yesterday.
    NYSDOH says we had 235 new ones yesterday.

    No sign of a let up with Delta yet and there’s a new variant that’s even more contagious. Ugh.

  5. 5.

    Steeplejack

    @raven:

    Sounds good! Is the boat requiring vaccines, or are you going to be on there with a bunch of freedom-loving patriots? Although I guess it doesn’t matter much in the brisk sea air.

  6. 6.

    Amir Khalid

    Malaysia should be on that bar chart in Laurie Garrett’s tweet: we’re at 77.6% with at least one dose. 72.2% with both doses, which would put us between Italy and Canada.

  7. 7.

    raven

    @Steeplejack: They can’t even ask. I was watching a fishing show done in Panama City and, at the end, they superimposed a picture of one of the guys on the show with a tribute. Travis Alan Holeman was an anti-masker who died from Civid. 

    My intention is to mask in the cabin and not on deck.

     

    eta

    From his family on a Go Fund Me

    Please, please take care of yourselves and your families and learn from this harsh lesson that Covid is real and deadly. Don’t let Travis’ death be in vain. Vaccines and early treatment save lives so if you feel any symptoms, get help immediately. Get Monoclonal Antibody Infusions and don’t mess with this. No one should have to go through this. Again, all our love and thanks…
    Greg, Renee’, Travis, Bear, Jenn and Bannan….

  8. 8.

    lowtechcyclist

    It’s like Fox News owns stock in covid

    If they could, they surely would.

    In the war on Covid, they’re Axis Sally.

    Idiot Congressman Chip Roy:

    I do not trust the NIH, the CDC, the FDA, or any of the other so-called experts telling us what to do. #HealthcareFreedom

    Here’s the thing: there are only so many things you can develop genuine expertise on in one lifetime. It takes years and years to get to the level where you know enough to question the experts in a field like epidemiology.

    I’m a PhD mathematician and professional statistician, and I know how long it took me to get to those levels in two at least somewhat related fields.  There’s no way I could start that process over in a completely foreign field like epidemiology without devoting an enormous chunk of the remainder of my life to the effort.

    And for what? There are already thousands of people out there who’ve already invested the time and effort to become experts in that field.

    At some point, you’ve just got to trust the experts, trust the people who’ve already invested a significant piece of their lives in becoming really good in a field.  Pretending that you can just jump in and say, “I don’t trust the experts,” and have that make any sort of sense, is just bullshit.

  9. 9.

    Baud

    @lowtechcyclist:

    I’m a PhD mathematician and professional statistician, and I know how long it took me to get to those levels in two at least somewhat related fields

     

     

    According to a Facebook expert, 2+2 = 5. People like you are trying to steal my extra number. I don’t trust you.

  10. 10.

    Steeplejack

    @raven:

    I have some sympathy for the guy, but (from that article): “COVID-19, however, was one fight he couldn’t win. Despite his condition, he charmed and befriended the medical staff who fought valiantly alongside him for 39 days.”

    If I had been working in an ICU for a year and a half through this mess, I’d find it hard to be “charmed” by some unvaccinated asshole showing up at this point. But, hey, silver lining: “As his youngest relative, Jaxon, excitedly said, ‘Travis will get to hunt and fish as much as he wants in Heaven.’”

    Sounds like you’re taking the right precautions. (Right = what I would do in that situation. ?)

  16. 16.

    Amir Khalid

    Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 5,828 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, tfor a cumulative reported total of 2,426,050 cases. It also reports 78 deaths as of midnight, for an adjusted cumulative total of 28,312 deaths – 1.17% of the cumulative reported total, 1.21% of resolved cases.

    Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.87.

    533 confirmed cases are in ICU, 229 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 9,178 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,320,391 patients recovered – 95.6% of the cumulative reported total.

    Two new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 5,719 clusters. 557 clusters are currently active; 5,162 clusters are now inactive.

    5,821 new cases today are local infections. Seven new cases today are imported.

    The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 157,999 doses of vaccine on 22nd October: 25,743 first doses, 113,989 second doses, and 18,267 booster doses. As of midnight yesterday, the cumulative total is 48,831,214 doses administered: 25,344,201 first doses, 23,565,799 second doses, and 84,941 booster doses. 77.6% of the population have received their first dose, while 72.2% are now fully vaccinated.

  18. 18.

    Cermet

    Speaking of not believing the experts – that reminds me of the the physicist that was an AGW denier who then took money from the kock-sucker brothers (now singular, thank goodness – hoping the last one follows quickly) to study the Climate models to show exactly how and why they were all wrong; trouble was, after a year of intensive study and work running their models, he discovered that all the major models were correct (using real data over the past twenty years and then  comparing outputs to reality), except they almost always underestimated the problem. Of course, other AGW clowns now dismiss his conclusions.

  19. 19.

    John S.

    @lowtechcyclist:

    I agree with this sentiment 100%.

    I’m a product manager that specializes in foreign exchange products, and it took me years to become one of a a small number of experts on this field. But this mental disease amongst people that they can stay in a Holiday Inn Express and become an expert in subjects they know nothing about is an epidemic in and of itself.

    I find myself increasingly arguing with people who know fuck all, but are constantly trying to explain to me how complex shit works. I took the time and effort to develop that expertise, but that doesn’t seem to matter any more.

  21. 21.

    New Deal democrat

    Nationwide cases have resumed their decline, which has been at a steady rate of about 1500-2000/day for nearly the past 4 weeks. Deaths have anomalously increased, but on closer inspection that turns out to be huge data dumps from Ohio, Arizona, and (maybe) California.

    For the moment, still no sign of the onset of a winter wave.

    That some people seem immune or nearly so to COVID is not surprising. At some point we are going to find out that there is a %age who are uniquely susceptible, and that will explain in retrospect why Delta burned like a forest fire through dry tinder.

  22. 22.

    MattF

    See, all those people who trust ‘experts’ are ‘experts’ themselves. Obvsly a conspiracy.

  24. 24.

    Quinerly

    @Steeplejack (phone): Good luck to you next week! l am over 7 months out on the one shot J&J and feeling very uneasy since traveling for 2 plus more months.

    Hoping to get a Pfizer booster today at the Santa Fe Farmers Market…. National Guard event almost in my rental’s front yard in the Railyard District.

  26. 26.

    Steeplejack

    @Quinerly:

    I’m running down to Rehoboth Beach with my brother Monday morning for an overnighter, so I decided to wait until after that to get the booster (assuming it’s available for me—haven’t checked yet), in case I have any side effects. He has to meet a plumber or somebody at the beach house, so it’s a good excuse for a little road trip.

  27. 27.

    Matt McIrvin

    @New Deal democrat:

    That some people seem immune or nearly so to COVID is not surprising.

    At this point, large sections of the country have a substantial fraction of the population who have already been infected, and while that’s not necessarily reliable protection, it’s got to be suppressing rates of new infection and serious illness. Part of the reason we’re having big outbreaks in sparsely populated areas of the northern tier now is that these are areas that were relatively lightly touched by the earlier waves.

    The Acela corridor is not only highly vaccinated, it’s also likely got a lot of residual B- and T-cell immunity from being hit so hard a year and a half ago, and again last winter–especially among the residents who are least likely to be vaccinated.

  29. 29.

    Matt McIrvin

    While, per earlier threads, I probably will be eligible for a booster, the six-month point for me is in late November and the way things are shaking out, I probably won’t be able to get it until after Thanksgiving, or close enough before that I won’t have the enhanced immunity until after Thanksgiving. In any event, my vaccination was with the Moderna shot and the antibodies from that are relatively durable. We’re planning to go down and visit my parents (who I assume will get their boosters soon if they haven’t had them already–they’ve been taking this super-seriously from jump) and I plan to make use of rapid antigen tests to be extra-sure I’m not endangering them.

  30. 30.

    New Deal democrat

    @Matt McIrvin: True, but note that the Medical Express article discusses people who appear to have “natural immunity” to COVID. That is obviously different from acquired resistance.

    I am just pointing out that there is almost certainly a substantial group at the other end of the spectrum, I.e., “naturally susceptible,” and just from the way Delta rolled in and out like a tsunami in most countries is pretty potent circumstantial evidence for that hypothesis.

  31. 31.

    Fester Addams

    It’s like Fox News owns stock in covid

    Well, if we see “relatively high frequency of cognitive impairment several months after patients contracted COVID-19”, and there’s a positive correlation between stupidity and Trump-voting… Do the math (those who still can).

  32. 32.

    Another Scott

    @Cermet: I remember that story because it is so rare.  It’s really hard for humans to change their minds.

    I also recall doing work-study with an economist Prof in college.  He worked on the Index of Leading Economic Indicators and polled a dozen or so others who had various models for what the numbers would be.  My job was to plot the data in various ways.  I was talking with one of his postdocs and said that I thought those modelers wanted to be right – so they would always do tweaks based on their intuition and previous real world results.  The PD said that he didn’t believe that – he thought that they would report whatever their model spit out.  We thought that he was naive…

    Only a couple of the modelers we’re consistently good back then (early Reagan years), IIRC.  It was hard work with lots of change happening!

    Expertise is extremely valuable because the world is complicated!

    Cheers,

    Scott.

  33. 33.

    smith

    @New Deal democrat: But Delta stubbornly refuses to roll out of the UK, which was hit by that variant before other western countries, and is relatively well-vaccinated. I find the whole pattern there baffling. I’m sure behavior has something to do with it, but surely the susceptible people would have encountered it by now.

  34. 34.

    Matt McIrvin

    @New Deal democrat: I also personally know at least one unvaccinated person who seemed to be one of these mysteriously immune cases, uninfected despite massive household exposure… but then caught it several months later when Delta came to town.

  36. 36.

    Matt McIrvin

    @smith: My impression is that the UK now is a bit like Florida–vaccination isn’t super low, but the place is just wide open and the government is steadfastly opposed to any non-medical interventions.

    But the wave seems to have burned out faster in Florida. It might be different patterns of vaccination–in Florida, the rural areas are low-vaccination and some cities are actually quite high-vaccination; in the UK it’s more the reverse, kind of like eastern Massachusetts, with the lowest vaccination in poor urban areas.

  37. 37.

    Robert Sneddon

    Scotland — 2,403 new COVID-19 cases reported today. The test positivity rate is 8.7%. There were no new deaths reported due to a data issue. This number will be updated tomorrow. ICU bed occupancy numbers are 61, up one from yesterday while hospitalisations are 896, up two.

    There were approximately 4,700 vaccinations carried out in Scotland yesterday (Friday) with about 65% of these being first vaccinations of school-age children. 91.9% of 16+ adults are now vaccinated with their first dose and 85.5% are fully vaccinated. 74.6% of 16 and 17-year-olds have now received their first vaccination, up 0.1% from yesterday. 51.0% of 12-15 year olds have now received their first vaccination, up 0.6% from yesterday.

    There were about 28,000 booster vaccinations carried out yesterday in Scotland with a total of about 458,000 boosters to date.

  38. 38.

    smith

    @Matt McIrvin: When I was thinking about this yesterday, I went looking for a breakdown of infections and vaccinations in the UK by region, and I found this. It’s like the CovidActNow state maps, in that you can flip between a map showing vax rate and one showing vax rate. As you say, the cities tend to be the low vax areas there — they clearly stand out as lighter dots on the map. However, infection rates are more like here — they’re lower in the cities.

    I’m sure there’s a limit to the usefulness of comparing countries, as both culture and politics are really not the same there and here, but the overall trend during Delta has been so different in the UK, even compared to other western European countries, that it still seems really anomalous. Maybe some of UK commenters could enlighten us.

  39. 39.

    Matt McIrvin

    @smith: Another thing about the UK is that they do do a LOT of testing. So they’re probably picking up many mild/asymptomatic cases that would get missed in most of the US.

  40. 40.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Matt McIrvin: ​
      There aren’t that many city-centre areas in the UK that are “poor” (I live in a flat in Edinburgh city centre which has a market price of half a million quid, new-build flats just up the street go for a million). What the city centres do have is a large population of younger adults, often renting in a flatshare for a year or two, the Young Immortals who go to pubs and football matches and parties and don’t mask. They’re the major segment of the population who just aren’t interested in getting vaccinated for various reasons. Older folks especially in the rural areas outside the cities are 100% fully vaccinated and getting their booster shots.

    The case rates in the UK are high but the testing rate is also high, more than double the rate in the US in part due to lateral-flow tests being free over-the-counter. Hospitalisation numbers are creeping up but ICU occupancy is way lower per capita than the US and the same goes for the death rate (per million population, US = 31 deaths per week compared to UK = 14 deaths per week). It’s still bad and likely to get worse as we move into winter. Without vaccinations and under the same restrictions it would be a bloodbath.

  41. 41.

    smith

    @Matt McIrvin:  Yes, testing rate is always the wild card. It certainly would explain why the new case rate in the UK is much higher than here, but the new death rate is much lower.

  43. 43.

    Fair Economist

    The CDC continues to show extremely low flu transmission, with positivity of 0.1% on testing. Rates are up from the all time lows of the summer but still lower than normally seen anytime during a normal year. Unfortunately one sequence was the Yamagata variant, which hadn’t been seen anywhere in the world since December and which people were hoping was extinct. Rats.

    Reported excess respiratory deaths continue to surpass those for the worst part of the 2018 flu epidemic, the worst in 50 years.

    @smith: Simple explanation for ongoing Delta in the UK; it’s roughly at steady state. With any other respiratory virus people catch it again every few years, tops. COVID is going to be the same, maybe more frequent since it’s more contagious.

    Deaths are down, but COVID is still one of the top 10 causes of death there, probably #3. This is also to be expected from the steady state; prior infection or vax should provide substantial protection from severe outcomes – but not perfect, and this is a dangerous disease. IMO the inferior outcomes for the UK show we can’t go back to the old normal; control will require some measures, like the vax and mask requirements of the saner EU countries.

  44. 44.

    Fair Economist

    @Matt McIrvin: The UK is doing a lot of testing – but not nearly enough, because they still have a high positivity rate. That astronomical case rate is very real.

  45. 45.

    Ken

    @New Deal democrat: people who appear to have “natural immunity” to COVID

    It’s nice being a member of an intelligent species where we don’t have to rely on that. Combined with having an adaptive immune system, it avoids the whole “98% die, but the population becomes immune because it’s descended from the survivors” strategy that the invertebrates have.

  46. 46.

    Wvng

    @lowtechcyclist: People who have not gained expertise in a complex field generally have no idea what expertise requires. People who have expertise in a complex field who think that makes them ready experts in everything are fools. Like that physicist who was famously and loudly a denier on climate change, who received a Koch grant to review the evidence, put together a team, spent a couple of years and, in the end cane out with “it’s real and worse than most experts say.” To the best of my knowledge he never fessed up to having been a fool for stepping out of his lane. That, in doing so, he added to the pressure on actual experts to minimize their conclusions and their public concerns.

     

    And I see that cermet already posted about this clown.

  47. 47.

    Sloane Ranger

    I agree with Robert Sneddon and other posters about the apparently anomalous situation in the UK. I think a lot of it is down to testing more, so asymptomatic and mild cases are picked up where they might not be elsewhere. I’ve just come back from my hairdressers and she was telling me that they all test twice a week as a matter of course and I know that other workplaces and schools have similar requirements in place. Also, I am sure that other countries have given rise to new variants/mutations but we are picking them up more often because we test more.

    Anyway, here in the UK we had 49,298 new cases yesterday (Friday). This is an increase of 18.1% in the rolling 7-day average. New cases by nation,

    England – 41,745 (down 2618)

    Northern Ireland – 1355 (up 304)

    Scotland – 2902 (up 547)

    Wales – 3296 (down 944).

    Deaths – There were 180 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday. This is an increase of 15.8% in the rolling 7-day average. 143 deaths were in England, 7 in Northern Ireland, 19 in Scotland and 11 in Wales.

    Testing – 1,011,431 tests took place on Thursday, 21 October. The rolling 7-day average is up by 1.4%. The PCR testing capacity reported by labs on that date was 866,695.

    Hospitalisations – There were 8238 people in hospital and 892 on ventilators on Thursday, 21 October. The rolling 7-day average for hospital admissions was up by 19.1% as of 18 October.

    Vaccinations – As of 21st October, 49,603,139 people had received 1 shot of a vaccine and 45,486,950 had had 2. In percentage terms, 86.3% of all UK residents aged 12+ have had 1 shot and 79.1% had had 2 as of that date.

  50. 50.

    Steeplejack (phone)

    @Cameron:

    Dogfish Head on Rehoboth Avenue is pretty good: upscale bar food done well (and I mean “bar food” in the expanded, modern sense) and a variety of beers on tap. Mixed drinks and hard cider, too, I think. It tends to be crowded at meal times because it’s in a prime location and it’s popular.

    The Dogfish Head here in Falls Church is my “local.” Shorter menu but also quite good.

    If you like Tex-Mex, I highly recommend El Azteca in Rehoboth Beach and Agave in nearby Lewes.

  51. 51.

    Bill Arnold

    @Tom Levenson:

    That AGW physicist clown is Berkeley’s Robert Muller, who is now a lab-leak conspiracy theorist who publishes his nonsense in the Wall St. Journal.

    I wonder what lab-escape storytellers think of the Maine Lobster Theory:
    China-linked disinformation campaign blames Covid on Maine lobsters – The University of Oxford found evidence that pro-China social media accounts are pushing a new thread of propaganda related to the origins of the pandemic. (Oct. 21, 2021, 10:00, Olivia Solon, Keir Simmons and Amy Perrette)
    And this could be consequences :-)
    Australia asks why Hong Kong considers lobsters national security risk (October 22, 2021)

  52. 52.

    Bill Arnold

    @smith:

    So what you’re saying is that this is what endemic covid looks like?

    Sadly, no. Current variants of SARS-CoV-2 are a lot more infectious, with R0 of maybe 6-8? A novel influenza peaks at an R0 of about 1.8; 2009 was more like 1.4, and 1.4 or. less is typical in the current era. That’s low enough that NPIs vs COVID including behavior changes (work from home, distancing) and mask wearing, can know R below 1, especially combined with widespread vaccination. That’s what’s happened for the past 3 influenza seasons (2 in the southern hemisphere) and may be happening again in the northern hemisphere.
    Only 2 weeks of CDC data so far – adjust the year range and week number (currently 41) of the URL to see different years and/or next week’s numbers.
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2021-2022/data/whoAllregt_cl41.html

  53. 53.

    Bill Arnold

    @Bill Arnold:
    Re R for influenza:
    Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature (Open Access, 04 September 2014)

    The median R value for 1918 was 1.80 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.47–2.27). Six studies reported seven 1957 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1957 was 1.65 (IQR: 1.53–1.70). Four studies reported seven 1968 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1968 was 1.80 (IQR: 1.56–1.85). Fifty-seven studies reported 78 2009 pandemic R values. The median R value for 2009 was 1.46 (IQR: 1.30–1.70) and was similar across the two waves of illness: 1.46 for the first wave and 1.48 for the second wave. Twenty-four studies reported 47 seasonal epidemic R values. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19–1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were <1.

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