Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

Trump should be leading, not lying.

People are weird.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

When we show up, we win.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

It is not hopeless, and we are not helpless.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

Republicans do not trust women.

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

You cannot love your country only when you win.

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

Let’s bury these fuckers at the polls 2 years from now.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / The Virginia Election

The Virginia Election

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I honestly do not have an accurate read on what is going on in Virginia. I don’t trust Fox news polls, and I don’t trust the “OMG McAulliffe IS IN TROUBLE DEMS DOOMED” stories I am reading in the media.

At the same time, I want Democrats to be scared to death about every fucking election so they go out and vote.

Does anyone live there and have a read on the situation?

Reader Interactions

225Comments

  2. 2.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    At the same time, I want Democrats to be scared to death about every fucking election so they go out and vote.

    as somebody tweeted yesterday, every election for the rest of our lives is the most important election of our lives.

    Wondering what list I’m on that someone in the McAuliffe campaign thinks “Dr Mary L Trump” emails is the key to my wallet. I’ve gotten three today, three from “Terry” and one from Stacey Abrams.

  3. 3.

    Adam L Silverman

    From Larry Sabato’s people at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics:

    https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/a-last-word-on-virginia/

    Closing thoughts on Virginia

    Whatever happens on Tuesday, the takeaways for the national environment shouldn’t be all that different whether McAuliffe wins by a tiny margin or Youngkin wins by a similarly small margin.

    The more interesting result would be if the race broke clearly one way or the other — as in, if either candidate won by more than a few points. A Youngkin win by several points would offer confirmation that the political environment has broken wide open against Democrats. Meanwhile, if McAuliffe wins by several points, it may indicate that Biden’s poor approval ratings are not as much of a drag on Democrats as one might otherwise think. There will be plenty of time to analyze the results after we get them.

    But let’s assume that the bulk of the polls are correct and that the race ends up being very close either way. Both of those possible results — a narrow win by either candidate — would suggest a significant falloff for Democrats from their strong Virginia performances in the Trump era and represent, at the very least, a bright red “check engine” light at the midpoint of the Democrats’ journey from last year’s presidential race to next year’s midterm.

    Now… as for the race itself.

    We know based on President Biden’s sagging approval rating that the environment is, frankly, horrible for Democrats. As Washington Democrats have dithered over parallel negotiations to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill and a Democrats-only social spending package, they have seen numerous other problems mount. The messy withdrawal from Afghanistan dented perceptions of Biden’s competence, and he has not recovered. Other problems, like inflation, supply-chain problems, and gas prices — along with the lingering pandemic — have likely chipped away at Biden and the Democrats as well. Biden’s national approval rating is in the low-to-mid 40s, meaning that his approval is lagging several points behind his 51% of the national popular vote last year. The dropoff appears more stark in state-level polling. Biden got 54% in Virginia, but his approval rating in several polls is often 10 points or more worse than that. We’ve seen similar Biden drop-offs in other recently-released polls in states bluer than Virginia, such as Connecticut, Maryland, and New Jersey.

    McAuliffe will need some Biden disapprovers to win — there may be some disaffected Democrats who nonetheless will vote for McAuliffe, but in a nationalized era, having to win presidential disapprovers is difficult for any candidate. Democrats hope that the polls are underestimating them, as the polls did in the recent California gubernatorial recall. But the trendlines in the Virginia polls have been bad for the Democrats, as several pollsters who have conducted multiple polls of the race have shown earlier McAuliffe leads disappearing in the closing stages.

    We have also previously noted the history in Virginia — the party that holds the White House has, for decades, performed worse in the governor’s race than they did in the previous year’s presidential race. The level of dropoff varies significantly, but the reality of the trend does not. And while elite opinion can be just as wrong, or worse, than polls, we have been struck by the number of our best sources who have told us that they believe Youngkin will win — even some Democrats, though there naturally was a reluctance to admit it. It is worth remembering that there also was widespread elite pessimism about Northam 4 years ago — pessimism that ended up being wildly misplaced — although the sentiment toward Youngkin is better supported by the numbers and the environment this time.

    We have had this race rated Leans Democratic ever since March, when we first issued our ratings. At the time, we were criticized by some for not having the race rated at least Likely Democratic — such was the conventional wisdom that the race was a shoo-in for Democrats. But the history gave us pause, and we kept the rating after Republicans nominated Youngkin, who is conservative but not as conservative (and less Trumpy) than some of the alternatives were.

    The race has been very close for a long time, based on our understanding of both public and private polling and modeling. We kept the race at Leans Democratic anyway because, even in a close race, we’ve come to believe that a state’s baseline partisanship can break ties in favor of the state’s stronger party — which is the Democrats in Virginia.

    But as we reach the end here, we have to say: We do not really have a strong handicap either way in this race. There are some indications that suggest this could be the closest Virginia gubernatorial race since 1989, when Doug Wilder (D) won by less than half a percentage point. The polls, taken collectively, don’t strongly point to an obvious winner, nor do other factors, like the more than 1.1 million votes cast before Election Day. Those votes will be Democratic — it’s just a question of how Democratic. The McAuliffe campaign claims an edge in the neighborhood of 60%-40% and that their side had a strong finish over the weekend, although we have heard of other models of the votes already cast that show a smaller Democratic advantage. However, the majority of the vote will come on Election Day itself if the turnout of registered voters is in the same ballpark as the past couple of gubernatorial races, and this vote will be substantially more Republican. Youngkin has the enthusiasm, the environment, the history, and perhaps even the issues (given his focus on education and its increasing salience in polling). McAuliffe has the state’s Democratic lean in his favor.

    However, we do feel we owe it to readers to push this race one way or the other and not just move it to a Toss-up rating at the end. So we’re moving from Leans Democratic to Leans Republican. Our sense is that the race has been moving toward Youngkin, in large part because of the political environment. McAuliffe’s Trump-centric campaign also just doesn’t seem as potent in a non-federal race with the former president no longer in the White House.

    Those who believe McAuliffe will still win — and they very well may be right — will remember 4 years ago, when many seemed to think Ed Gillespie (R) had controlled the narrative of the race and was headed for an upset. But the difference between now and then is that Ralph Northam (D) had the advantages of voter enthusiasm, history, and political environment. As noted above, Youngkin benefits from those factors now. That may be enough to get him across the finish line, although a victory by either candidate remains on the table.

    A couple of additional things to watch tomorrow: Because of changes to Virginia law, mail-in and early ballots will be tabulated more quickly than in 2020, so instead of the Republicans jumping out to an early lead, Democrats are likely to. Then it will be a question of whether Youngkin catches up to and passes McAuliffe, and there may be late drama depending on the rhythm of the vote count. Also, for all of the focus on the suburbs, keep an eye on the red, rural counties in central and western Virginia. The turnout and the GOP performance in those areas are a very important part of this story too. So too is Democratic turnout and performance in heavily Black areas, particularly in the Greater Richmond and Hampton Roads regions. In an election that has the potential to be extremely close, it’s never just one place or one group that decides the outcome.

    Much more at the link.

  4. 4.

    randy khan

    I live in Northern Virginia and, honestly, I dunno.

    I do know that Youngkin is running one of the most dishonest campaigns I’ve ever seen, even by Republican standards.  His closing ad takes a single slide from some presentation somebody who didn’t work for any Virginia entity gave at some conference something like 6 years ago and uses it to claim that Virginia under McAuliffe required schools to teach critical race theory.  And, amazingly, that’s probably not in the top ten lies his campaign has told.  (Never mind that, of course, he is very careful not to say anything about his position on abortion rights, or that his proposal to “increase” school funding mostly would funnel money from public school systems to private schools.)

  5. 5.

    feebog

    Latest Fox News poll shows McAuliffe down by 8.  Same poll showed him up by 5 two weeks earlier.  Polls don’t change that much.  Everyone else is showing a very tight race, with McAuliffe up by a point or two.  I don’t have a handle on Virginia, but I do on California.  Recall that Elder was closing in on Newsom and it was predicted to be a very tight race.  Until it wasn’t.

  6. 6.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Baud: Co-sign.  Also, I understand Cole’s reasoning, but I am starting to suspect that I am more motivated by positive things than many other people.  Fear doesn’t help me that much.  I can do grim determination if I need to though.

  7. 7.

    KayInMD (formerly Kay (not the front-pager))

    I don’t live there (but I live across the river and have canvassed and worked in a lot of races in VA), an I don’t have any particular incite into this year’s race. But I suspect that this race will be similar to McAuliffe’s 2013 race, which I did work. Terry was the underdog in that race, but he and his team pulled it off by the skin of their teeth. That race set the stage for the steady stream of increasingly blue state elections in Virginia. I may be wrong, but I don’t think Youngkin’s brand of smarmy, smug, coded racism and misogyny is going to sell any better than Gillespie’s did in 2017.

    Edited to correct the spelling of Youngkin’s name, which I always get wrong.

  8. 8.

    randy khan

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I am struck that the Sabato thinking is more or less that it feels to them like Youngkin will win.  I’m not saying they’re wrong, but it’s very much a gut instinct thing, not particularly data driven.

  11. 11.

    FridayNext

    Recall that Elder was closing in on Newsom and it was predicted to be a very tight race. Until it wasn’t.

    This. Polls, or more importantly the reporting on polls, has been so off and by so much lately, I can’t imagine placing and trust in them, or how they get represented and analyzed. I live in Northern VA, but I haven’t the slightest idea.

  13. 13.

    Barbara

    I have no secret source or greater insight, but all of the pro-Youngkin predictions, including Sabato’s, focus almost solely on “momentum” and feelings, which I interpret to mean that they don’t have any real data one way or another. They are just assuming a large pro-Republican turn out on Election Day. Of the real data points, the worst IMO is that those who consider themselves independent favor Youngkin.

  14. 14.

    Adam L Silverman

    @randy khan: At this point, as someone who has had some advanced doctoral level training in polling for campaigns – I took it as a methods top up and a favor to my dissertation chair who was teaching it for the first time so he’d have enough students so the class would go, not because I work in campaigns (or these types of campaigns, military campaigning I’m good to go!) – is that the polling is so tight among the reputable pollsters that we’ve reached the artisan portion of the analysis. Sabato and his people are now relying on their very high levels of experience with the subject matter and the methodology.

  15. 15.

    mali muso

    I also live in VA and have no idea how it’s going to shake out.  At least in my area, the weather forecast for tomorrow is cold and rainy in the AM, so maybe having a good early-vote lead will be sustained if GOTV is lower on the day?  Heck if I know.  I won’t be able to bear reading, watching or listening to any coverage, that’s for sure.

  16. 16.

    Baud

    The messy withdrawal from Afghanistan dented perceptions of Biden’s competence, and he has not recovered. Other problems, like inflation, supply-chain problems, and gas prices — along with the lingering pandemic — have likely chipped away at Biden and the Democrats as well. Biden’s national approval rating is in the low-to-mid 40s,

    Interesting that Dems get no benefit from workers who have discovered newfound leverage for the first time in decades, or from those who benefit from the child tax credit.

  17. 17.

    randy khan

    By the way, Youngkin has been doing a lot of fairly indiscriminate advertising on Facebook.   Seriously, if they were doing any kind of screen – zip codes, stated politics, take your pick – I wouldn’t be seeing any ads and I get at least one a day.

    I mention this because I think the ads are more likely to energize Dems than to change minds.  They are that annoying.  (And I’ve been having some fun making comments on them, which kind of amazingly never seem to get deleted.)

  18. 18.

    ...now I try to be amused

    McAuliffe will need some Biden disapprovers to win — there may be some disaffected Democrats who nonetheless will vote for McAuliffe, but in a nationalized era, having to win presidential disapprovers is difficult for any candidate.

    I’m hoping Democratic voters will come to embrace negative partisanship as much as Republican voters have. Who you keep out of office is as important as who you put in office.

  19. 19.

    Elizabelle

    Fuck Larry Sabato.  I am sick of hearing about Biden’s sagging approval ratings, and that he is a drag on the Democrats.

    Leans Republican. I hope he has to eat it.

    Re “the political environment”:  the press has a lot to answer for with souring the situation there.

    Our pundits have the attention span of mosquitos.  And are just as bloodsucking.

    I hope Virginia voters blow all this shit out of the water.  Vote blue.

  20. 20.

    RaflW

    I hate everything right now.

    @EoinHiggins_
    Virginia Sen. Mark Warner just framed a McAuliffe loss tomorrow as the fault of progressives for not passing infrastructure

  26. 26.

    Elizabelle

    I think that Terry Mac has talked about a lot other than just Trump.

    It’s the pundits that can’t quit him.

  27. 27.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @RaflW: that’s a dumb damn thing to say, especially with last minute GOTV efforts still going on, even if it’s not particularly surprising given the source. Warner is often mentioned as one of those who are quietly happy Manchin is Manchin

  29. 29.

    Adam L Silverman

    @randy khan: They’re where a lot of intelligence analysts are. The data only take you so far, so now you fall back on your experience, expertise, and education. It is very much an example of artisanry.

  30. 30.

    Elizabelle

    @Adam L Silverman:  I agree with you, pretty much, about “perception of reality”, and I truly blame mass media for doing a shit-tastic job.  It is always such a heavy lift to get past their hot takes.

    I do wonder, though, if jackals are a particularly media-consuming bunch.  And we are, most of us, old enough to remember Walter Cronkite and Huntley and Brinkley and news before it was infotainment and a profit center in its own right.

    WRT Manchin:  one problem may be that the world we are living in no longer matches the one that resides in his head.  His assumptions are all off, in the event he has any good faith.

  31. 31.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Barbara: I would expect that there is a screening question built into the polling. Such as: Have you already voted? Or: Are you intending to vote early or on election day?

  33. 33.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Elizabelle: It isn’t that his assumptions are off, but that his assumptions were never right even when he first adopted them. The reporting over the weekend indicated he opposed the family leave provisions because he believes they need to be accompanied by a work requirement. The reporting indicated that when his colleagues tried to explain to him that this was only for people who were employed, he didn’t understand the explanation.

  34. 34.

    Kay

    @RaflW:

    Yes, passing the infrastructure bill and killing the rest of Biden’s agenda was going to bring them out in droves. That’s how this works. They’re infrastructure fanatics.

  38. 38.

    Adam L Silverman

    @RaflW: Given that Jayapal had already indicated that she and her caucus trusted President Biden’s word and were going to take a leap of faith on this, Warner isn’t just wrong, he’s stupendously wrong.

  40. 40.

    janesays

    @feebog: CA recall was predicted to be a very tight race about a month out, but in the final 10 days before the election, it was clear that Newsom was going to win, fairly easily. He wound up winning by an even larger margin than expected, but he was already up by 10 points in the polls by Election Day

    I honestly have no idea what to expect tomorrow in Virginia. The only scenario I really can’t see is McAuliffe winning by a big margin (5+ points). It really feels like it could go either way. Manchin’s pointless press conference today probably doesn’t help things.

  41. 41.

    Elizabelle

    @RaflW:  Would you put up the link?

    I want to see exactly what Warner said, and not Higgins’ hot take on it.

    Twitter addicts have been wrong in the past.

  42. 42.

    Barbara

    @Adam L Silverman: ​ That’s a pretty fundamental error in reasoning. “Leave” means “leave from an existing job for a set amount of time,” after which, you “return to work.”

  45. 45.

    James E Powell

    There are many voters who are hateful & angry and quite a few more who are stupid.

    Anything can happen.

    As Duncan Black remarked, no matter what happens, the press/media will agree that it proves that Biden moved too far to the left.

    No one in the press/media will ever report that popular programs are being held back or watered down by a handful of corporate-funded assholes. I’m not sure how we can get that message through the noise-cloud of the culture wars.

  47. 47.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Kay: Of course. Throughout all of this, the person I’ve been most impressed with is Congresswoman Jayapal. Excellent vote counter, excellent strategist, excellent tactician, excellent communicator.

  48. 48.

    MattF

    I live Across The River, so I have nothing specific to say, except to note that Sabato’s ‘prediction’ apparently covers a range of +-5% with no new information, so it really doesn’t say anything about anything.

  49. 49.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @pat: I did too, listened to it with spite-fueled pleasure. I have nothing against her at all, just curious about how the campaign algorithms or whatever determine who gets what, what name makes a good draw….

  50. 50.

    Adam L Silverman

    @James E Powell: No one in the press or media will ever report that they always get watered down. The New Deal and the Great Society got ground up pretty good between proposal to passage. The difference today, of course, is 24/7/365 cable news, digital news, and social media.

  51. 51.

    Hildebrand

    Even assuming ‘off-year’ election fall-off, I still can’t imagine a state that gave Biden a ten point win last year will turn around and elect a billionaire, Trump-curious republican.

  54. 54.

    Elizabelle

    @Hildebrand:  I am hoping that is the case too.

    I think this is “gut feeling” analysis and the fundamentals still favor Democrats.  Who have been voting early and passionately.

  55. 55.

    Kay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Me too. She plays a bad hand well, which is the only good measure :)

    Anyone can play a good one.

    Mickey Kaus

    @kausmickey

    After Va. election, Manchin’s “pause” might start looking good to some vulnerable Dems. (Or not, if McAuliffe hangs on.)

     

    This is such bad thinking and it’s conventional wisdom. “The base is dispirited. Let’s REALLY disappoint them and see if that helps”  How does this work? How do they get from A to B?

    They do all think the R’s gonna win in VA, though. They’re all chickenshits. If they didn’t think he wasn’t going to win they wouldn’t go out this far.

  56. 56.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Throughout all of this, the person I’ve been most impressed with is Congresswoman Jayapal. Excellent vote counter, excellent strategist, excellent tactician, excellent communicator.

    agreed

     

    @Kay:

    Mickey Kaus

    @kausmickey

    To quote twitter Nixon, Is he still here?

  57. 57.

    Hoodie

    @MattF:  Sabato’s prediction seems to contain an unusually large quantity of hand-waiving. I guess this is understandable given the performance of polling over the last few cycles.

  58. 58.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @janesays: I recall there was a lot presslaining that Newsome would win easily if everyone voted like a presidential election, but it’s not, so this is going by people who vote in these odd elections, except the ca recall got  a bigger turn out that than 2020 presidential.   Act Blue been saying the election has had a huge turn out in Virginia, so either it’s another botched prediction or everyone in Virginia is pissed at McAulliffe,

  60. 60.

    Kay

    He does have to tell them it isn’t lost though. If Democrats see that media are all calling it they won’t come out. That’s how they are.

  62. 62.

    feebog

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:

    Don’t the polls drop voters off the poll after they voted early?

    I suppose it depends on the pollster, but you are not going to get an accurate picture if you are ignoring early voters.  A month ago McAuliffe was leading by 5 points.  Early voting has been going on at least that long.  Also, I read a few days ago that early ballots from Dem areas vs. Republican areas are running about 5 to 3.  Again, I’m no expert on VA politics, but I suspect the election will hang on election day turnout.

  64. 64.

    Mike in NC

    I’ve been a registered voter for nearly 50 years and our rotten media is incapable of doing anything except wishing for a horse race.

  67. 67.

    feebog

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:

     

    The California recall election did not get a larger turnout than the 2020 election.  It did get an extraordinary turnout for a recall election.  And the results almost exactly matched the 2018 Gubernatorial race, wherein Newsom got 62%.

  68. 68.

    Betty Cracker

    @Adam L Silverman: Yep. Jayapal used those exact words: “leap of faith.” But the progressive caucus isn’t going to get blown up next year if a small number of right-wing Dems successfully sabotage the president. It’ll be the blue dogs who get kicked to the curb, and all the preemptive whining in the world won’t change that.

  70. 70.

    Elizabelle

    I have never felt like I could not breathe about an election.

    I just have to hope that Virginia has more sane people who vote, than the insane people who fall for Republican messaging and culture wars.  I would like to think that we do.

    I also despise, despise, despise 24/7 cable.  It is a net negative.

  71. 71.

    feebog

    @Omnes Omnibus:

     Is a Fox poll interested in an accurate picture?  I don’t know.

    I think Fox uses an independent pollster, at least for some polling.  I’m just saying a race like this does not swing 13 points in two weeks, especially when all the other polling shows it within a few points.

  72. 72.

    japa21

    Question. How many legislative contests are there in VA tomorrow? Or is it just the governor race?

  74. 74.

    Wvng

    When I heard Manchin’s bullshit this afternoon”Dems need to stop holding my infrastructure bill hostage” I did two things. First, I screamed. Second, I said he threw Virginia to the Republicans.

  75. 75.

    Elizabelle

    @japa21:  Very few.  I think there might be four members of the House of Delegates on the ballot.  I don’t know about local issues.

    In suburban Richmond, my ballot was governor, lt. governor, attorney general, and the delegate. Period.  Elegantly simple.

    Forgive me. The House of Delegates is up.

  78. 78.

    Elizabelle

    @Wvng:   Please don’t say that.  Your last sentence.

    Are Democrats really that feeble?  I know our elite betters like to tell us so, but is that really the case?

  79. 79.

    Reboot

    My extremely unscientific gauge is that there seems to be more online comments against Youngkin than for him in the Roanoke Times (SW Virginia city, leans somewhat blue, newspaper).

  80. 80.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    On topic: Y’all see Jeremy Peters of the NYT get thoroughly pantsed for his lazy reporting on disappointed Biden-voting independent who was going to vote for Youngkin, who turns out to be a rich real estate lawyer with a long history of making large donations to the likes of Kelly Loefler, David Perdue and Shelly Capito

    Jonathan M. Katz. @KatzOnEarth
    The supposed Biden-turned-Youngkin voter @jwpetersNYT quoted wrote an article about CRT and race-based admissions for Quillette two months before the 2020 election

  81. 81.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @feebog: It could have an accurate poll of people who have not yet voted and be choosing to let it seem like it is something else.  I agree that the kind of swing those polls show is more likely to mean that the two polls are not directly comparable.

  82. 82.

    Martin

    @feebog: Yep. The issue is whether Dem or GOP voter turnout is going to fall off, and CA showed that it didn’t to any material degree. The polls were way off, because the voting model assumed a drop-off as in prior elections.

    I’m similarly skeptical of the VA polling. I think vote by mail is transformative for off-cycle elections.

  83. 83.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Elizabelle: I don’t think that’s the issue at all. From a person who said he’d be happy to authorize $4 Trillion in spending just a few months ago to someone who’s at this point trying to wreck the whole agenda.

    His new demand is that he get a bunch of CBO studies on things he’d never asked about before and never expressed concern for. He’s basically just trying to get the bipartisan bill passed and then tank everything else.

  85. 85.

    jonas

    @Baud: Interesting that Dems get no benefit from workers who have discovered newfound leverage for the first time in decades, or from those who benefit from the child tax credit.

    The people who benefit the most from Democratic policies are often the least likely to vote. Plus people who do vote tend to respond more to being pissed off at something than being grateful for something. If Dems think their policies will pay immediate electoral dividends, they may be disappointed.

  86. 86.

    acallidryas

    @japa21: It’s everything tomorrow.

    And I’m in VA and also really don’t know. I will say that McAuliffe has done a pretty poor job of running a campaign and I think they felt too comfortable for a while. They didn’t capitalize on enthusiasm when they had it, and I didn’t even get an automated e-mail when I’d signed up for volunteer opportunities.

    We should have been in a position to win this handily and I’m very worried and frustrated right now. Anyone who’s also worried should sign up for some GOTV shifts tonight and tomorrow.

  87. 87.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @feebog: Ok I stand correct. but the main take away I got is high turn out favores Blue, low favores Red, and these midterms are assumed low turn out. So as John said, scaring people to vote is a good thing.

  88. 88.

    James E Powell

    @Elizabelle:

    His assumptions are all off, in the event he has any good faith.

    The moving goalposts, the refusal to give the president of his party the benefit of the doubt, the refusal to support his own caucus, the constant repetition of right-wing talking points, the citations to things that are ridiculous or just not true are all indications that Manchin is not acting in good faith.

  89. 89.

    Elizabelle

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:   OMG and LOL.  Jeremy Peters is a tool.  I don’t have any heroes or heroines on the NY Times political staff.  They’re an elite kind of dreadful.  We cannot afford them.

    Josh Marshall’s tweet: 

    Matt Schlapp, who identified himself as a “Hillary/Biden voter”, told the Times he was planning to vote for McAullife until he heard Terry was full CRT.

  90. 90.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Steve Hofstetter @SteveHofstetter 3h
    Anti-vaxx, anti-mask Kristy Swanson is trending because she’s in the hospital from COVID.
    I would reply and wish her well, but she blocked me when I called her “Rough Draft Buffy.”

    Didn’t she and Dean Cain get invited to the Oval Office after they made a pro-trump home movie and posted it on 90shasbeens dot com?

  91. 91.

    Barbara

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: ​ The NYT coverage of the race has been horrible. But of course, I think NYT political coverage is generally horrible. It is just so obvious that they start with a hypothesis of what the situation on the ground is and then go searching for “voter in the street” observations that match the hypothesis. With a few quotes to counter the hypothesis just to cover their behind. And very frequently the only quotes they end up getting are from people who are really active in the Republican party. They did this for the Georgia races for the U.S. Senate. It’s so formulaic that I stopped reading a long time ago.

  92. 92.

    JMG

    Warner’s statement makes it plain what Manchin’s game is. Root for a Youngkin victory tomorrow, then use it as an excuse to say he’ll vote no on the BBB package because that’s what the voters want. I’ll bet Manchin won’t be the only House or Senate Democrat to say that, either.

  93. 93.

    James E Powell

    @Elizabelle:

    I think this is “gut feeling” analysis and the fundamentals still favor Democrats.  Who have been voting early and passionately.

    Hope you’re right. In the California governor’s recall, I expected a win, but I did not expect it to be as large as it was.

    This is a matter for Virginia Democrats’ turnout efforts, especially early/mail voting.

  95. 95.

    hueyplong

    My optimistic take is that people who vote early (Dems in this case) tend not to respond to late polling calls because that shit’s in their rear view mirror.

    I also call BS on the infrastructure/BBB thing mattering in VA.  Youngkin’s thing is “education” (as dramatically played out by aggressive clowns in board meetings on FoxNews) and not what Congress is doing.  Now that clownery might be effective, but I don’t think the Manchin stuff is driving this.

    All this an $4000 will buy you a quart of raspberries on FoxNews.

  96. 96.

    Tom Q

    Not in VA, not a polling nerd.  But my feeling is this is not dissimilar to the Ed Gillespie race — there seemed a press attempt to will him to the upset, but he ended up losing by a ton.

    VA isn’t a purple state, at this stage — it’s blue and getting bluer.  Youngkin is simply not in the Charlie Baker class of GOPer; he’s everything-Trump, unless he’s talking to a suburban housewife, in which case he whispers the Trumpism hoping you won’t hear it.

    All signs seem to point to Dems turning out at fairly usual rates, which wouldn’t indicate the close/maybe-losing numbers some polling has shown.  It feels like GOP firms have really flooded the zone with questionable polls; that may have slanted the narrative some.  And Dems are perfectly happy to have people think the election is close, as that motivates higher turnout of their voters.

    We’ll of course see sometime tomorrow, but I wouldn’t be surprised if T-Mac ends up winning by several points.  And the press will have to move on to another attempt to make all elections cliff-hangers/signs of Democratic Party collapse.

  100. 100.

    Another Scott

    @Barbara: +1 AFAIK, Sabato hasn’t been especially accurate the last few cycles, and he’s not sticking his neck out this time.

    I think polling is especially hard these days, but who knows.

    All we can do is turn out everyone we can.  Terry’s team seems to be doing everything they’re supposed to be doing.  I’m optimistic.

    We’ll see!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  101. 101.

    Betty Cracker

    This fucking idiot kind of sums up the situation:

    You can’t counter that “argument.” Republicans weaponized racism, sexism, xenophobia, homophobia, etc., and that is the source of their unity. You might get some of the bigots and pull in unaffiliateds to vote for Dems when their other needs on the Maslow’s hierarchy pyramid are in play, but it’s tough sledding otherwise in a close race.

  102. 102.

    Barbara

    @hueyplong: ​Agreed that the is has not much to do with what is going on in Congress. I think the fallout from the last school year has been fairly traumatic for people who put a lot, even perhaps too much, faith in education. This whole thing about the curriculum is just bizarre, since Virginia’s curriculum has been more or less stable across the last 25 years, over which we have had both Democratic and Republican governors. I know there is an effort to try to address perceived inequity or inequalities part of which looks at curriculum, and that’s where the hyperbole has come from.​

  104. 104.

    acallidryas

    @Tom Q:

    The difference is that even though the media tried to make the race look close, the polls still showed a good lead for Northam. Right now, the polls have been tightening considerably and are really close. The other issue is that I am incredibly depressed by how many (mostly white) Northern Virginia parents seem swayed by the fear that their kids will learn something that makes them feel bad, or that they can’t tell the school what to do. Educational politics has been so depressing.

    I’m not saying it’s over. Just that I do think either way it will be close.

  105. 105.

    Ksmiami

    @JMG: then they’ll all deserve to be tossed. Wouldn’t we all love a job that requires no serious engagement at all!?

  106. 106.

    JMG

    One thing about high-profile elections that are perceived to be close. They usually drive high turnout, because it causes more people to believe their individual vote is making a difference. That works for both sides of course.

  107. 107.

    Betty Cracker

    @The Moar You Know: It’s an agonizing choice because what an epic faceplant that would be, to pass nothing at all. The Beltway press will never stop screaming about it. And yet I think maybe you’re right. We just can’t maintain a coalition with liars and bad-faith actors who have been actively sabotaging the party for months and want to keep doing it until next year. Maybe it would be better to run on “look how close we are to getting more good shit done — make the 4% of Dems who are 1970s conservatives irrelevant again.” Not quite as pithy as MAGA, but it’s true.

  109. 109.

    Reboot

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: ​
    Warner founded a venture capital firm. He’s also open to cutting Social Security benefits, so what you said re: his opinion of Manchin tracks. There maybe other negatives I don’t know about, but his stance on Social Security is a big stumbling block. Otherwise, to me, speaking as a relative newcomer to Virginia, he seems like a fairly solid Democrat.

    ETA: That was a pretty dumb thing to say the day before the general election. I think everyone’s freaking out at this point. I’m making a point of not finding out who won till the morning of November 3.

  110. 110.

    Jeffro

    @MattF: Sabato’s ‘prediction’ apparently covers a range of +-5% with no new information, so it really doesn’t say anything about anything.

    Yeah, my estimation of his skills here would be vastly higher if he could have stuck with “we just don’t know how it’s going to shake out at this point.  I’d tell ya if I could.”

  111. 111.

    Gin & Tonic

    Remember those thousands of NYPD officers who were going to quit because of the vaccine mandate? The actual number going on unpaid leave today turned out to be … 34.

  112. 112.

    Steeplejack (phone)

    Saw this while looking for the Mark Warner clip:

    BREAKING — After threats that 10,000 NYPD officers could quit the force over the NYC vaccine mandate, the actual number going on unpaid leave today was 34.

    — Tristan Snell (@TristanSnell) November 1, 2021

  113. 113.

    Adam L Silverman

    @MisterForkbeard: They have to have a CBO score anyway for the reconciliation bill anyway or the Parliamentarian won’t let them proceed. So why he’s decided to make a fuss when he knows it’s coming, I have no idea.

  114. 114.

    TheTruffle

    @germy: I never answer calls from unknown numbers. I just don’t understand why polls haven’t gone the way of compact disks.

  115. 115.

    Elizabelle

    @Steeplejack (phone):  Thank you.

    Warner just says “that would have really helped Terry McAuliffe a lot if we’d been able to notch that win.”

    “Owen” can make of that what he wishes.  And immediate cut after that sentence.  What else did Warner say?

    The cut made me wonder if this was cherry-picked.

  116. 116.

    Eljai

    @Betty Cracker: WAPO had an article a week ago about how republicans see education as a winning issue, based upon an internal GOP poll that they refused to release to the public.  First, why not release the poll?  Second, they’re not even talking about education as in helping kids or raising teacher pay, they’re just whining about the made-up CRT stuff.  I get that that’s a winning issue for the wingnuts, but for the rest of the population?  I certainly hope that’s not the case.

  118. 118.

    rikyrah

    At the same time, I want Democrats to be scared to death about every fucking election so they go out and vote.

     

    I am with you on this, Cole.

  120. 120.

    Barbara

    @Steeplejack (phone): ​ Yes, it’s hard for me to believe that NYPD members would consider the momentary satisfaction of sticking it to the man to be worth the loss of some of the best benefits and pay they could possibly command by education and experience. I always try to remember that most people who are vaguely anti-vaxxer change their minds once that position comes with an explicit price. It’s been this way for a long time.

  121. 121.

    Geminid

    @Betty Cracker: If the 19 Blue Dog Caucus lose next year the 95 member Progressive Caucus will lose also because they will then be part of a minority. And there plenty of Democratic Representatives in the 95 member New Democrat Caucus who are in “front line” districts as well.

    I am not arguing against the Progressive Caucus’ tactics here, just pushing back at the notion that the Progressives who mostly represent safe districts do not have a stake in the fortunes of their more moderate colleagues.

  122. 122.

    Tom Q

    @acallidryas: Well, there was a poll that showed Gillespie winning by a point in 2017.  I grant there’s more polling evidence of GOP hopes this year than then, but I feel like, of late, there’s been a tendency to miss in the Dems’ direction (CA recall, OH-11).  Like polling firms reacted to Trump’s over-performance in both 2016 and 2020 (Biden’s win was well under the poling average last year) by stirring in some secret sauce that only really apples to races where Trump himself is on the ballot.

    As for all the parents so concerned about the utterly fictitious teaching of CRT to third graders — I wonder if this is actually a big concern (among anyone beyond the Fox faithful), or if it’s something people in the media perceive as a big concern through repetition by the right-wing noise machine.

    In any case: I’m thinking elections these days are more determined by fundamentals (party registration, voting history) than by the ephemeral issues that are highlighted by press or campaigns.  This aided Trump last year — Republicans stuck with him despite circumstances that should have made him a much bigger loser — but it helped Newsom earlier this year, and I believe it’ll boost McAuliffe now.  We’ll of course see if I’m correct.

  124. 124.

    Fair Economist

    What will really crush Democratic turnout is if the progressives allow the infrastructure bill through and Manchin and Sinema then kill the BBB (as they obviously will) while media spends the next 12 months dancing on its grave. It will be worse than passing nothing, because they’ll make all the normal Democrats supporting both bills look like chumps.

    Our only hope is for the progressives to stand strong and hold up the BIF until the BBB gets passed.

  126. 126.

    Kay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    This is the one place pretending things are going well is essential. GOTV. They have to think they can win, or they won’t come out. They’ll still want to beat the Right, whoever the D candidate is. Use that.

    In other news the Right wingers n our bd of election now want a “test run” of the same elections process they have been using since 2012, for tomorrows election which is going to be 30% turnout in a county with 30,000 people. So every pollworker has to work tonight, too. We’re hunting for fraud.  I imagine the Trump crazies voter fraud fantasies will become tiresome to even GOP officials if this keeps up.

  127. 127.

    Steeplejack (phone)

    @Barbara:

    The New York Post story linked in that thread said there are a number of “exemption requests” still to be processed, but that sounded sort of “sour grapes” to me, because New York Post.

    If Ronald Reagan could fire all of the air traffic controllers at once and we somehow survived, I think we can get through this with the loss of some number of dickhead Trumpista cops. Talk about a silver lining.

  128. 128.

    JoyceH

    I live in the red part of Virginia, with friends in blue NoVa, and I just have No Idea. I was quite optimistic a couple weeks ago, quite pessimistic a week ago, and now… who knows? I’m seeing a few of the large yard signs at intersections, the sort that campaigns and county parties put up, but not a whole lot in individual yards. Pretty evenly divided between parties – my county is about 2/3 Republican, but the yard signs always seem to be even. More signs for county supervisors.

    But I have to say that I always roll my eyes when pundits make predictions based on ‘voter enthusiasm’. There’s only a certain amount of voter enthusiasm that you need. If someone goes to vote with all the verve they bring to a tooth cleaning (‘kind of a bore, but if I don’t I’ll regret it’), their vote counts the same as someone went to vote with the enthusiasm of a ’65 teenage girl with Beatles tickets. And with early voting, you don’t need that ‘I’ll crawl over broken glass’ motivation – there’s a month-long period where you can just mosey into the county registrar’s office while running errands, and you’re done.

    A friend in NoVa said her friends and acquaintances up there aren’t particularly ‘enthusiastic’, but they either voted or are going to.

  129. 129.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Fair Economist: IMO that’s why Manchin is so wound up right now.  He wants the infrastructure bill, but not BBB.  I think he will eventual accept BBB, so I hope everyone stays firm on linking the two bills.

  130. 130.

    rikyrah

    @MisterForkbeard:

    His new demand is that he get a bunch of CBO studies on things he’d never asked about before and never expressed concern for. He’s basically just trying to get the bipartisan bill passed and then tank everything else

     

    He should get nothing then. It’s both or nothing.

     

    When people clowned him about means testing Family Leave – IN ORDER TO GET IT YOU HAVE TO HAVE A JOB – DUH.

    He had to come up with some more bullshyt.

  131. 131.

    Betty Cracker

    @Geminid: Well yeah, it’ll be a bad thing for mammals in general if Dems lose the House (not to mention birds, fish, reptiles and amphibians). The point is, the pain will fall disproportionately on the blue dogs, and pissing and moaning about progressives won’t help a single blue dog avoid that fate.

  132. 132.

    Kay

    @Tom Q:

    As for all the parents so concerned about the utterly fictitious teaching of CRT to third graders — I wonder if this is actually a big concern (among anyone beyond the Fox faithful), or if it’s something people in the media perceive as a big concern through repetition by the right-wing noise machine.

    The poll they all used to create the massive swing toward education was misinterpreted, by them, because they’re not that smart. The portion of the electrorate who put education first did swing, but that portion was a small part of the total, so at a glance it looks like a big shift. They’re essentially over counting education voters.
    I don’t know if he’ll win but that poll was nonsense.

  133. 133.

    The Moar You Know

    It’s an agonizing choice because what an epic faceplant that would be, to pass nothing at all. The Beltway press will never stop screaming about it. And yet I think maybe you’re right. We just can’t maintain a coalition with liars and bad-faith actors who have been actively sabotaging the party for months and want to keep doing it until next year. Maybe it would be better to run on “look how close we are to getting more good shit done — make the 4% of Dems who are 1970s conservatives irrelevant again.” Not quite as pithy as MAGA, but it’s true.

    @Betty Cracker: Manchin has been bargaining the entire time in bad faith.

    So one does NOT give him what he wants and then let him dump what most of his party wants in the trash.  Dems have been doing that nonsense for far too long.  If we are going to lose, then he MUST lose too

    And that’ll make the next idiot who wants to pull this kind of stunt think twice.

  136. 136.

    Kay

    @Betty Cracker:

    I blame the centrists for a lot of reasons. If they want to be centrists, well, get in there. Push a bill. They’re too fucking strategic for me. If they wanted to hang back and let progressives take all the heat then guess what? They get the progressive bill. I’m sick of their assumption that they’re some kind of status quo that doesn’t have to contribute anything and we all know where they stand. What is it they want? The one wants a tax credit for NJ. What do the rest of them want?

  137. 137.

    Anoniminous

    Biden won Virginia by 10 points or ~450,000 votes.  I don’t see any evidence – and some bullshit polling is not evidence – that advantage has collapsed.

  139. 139.

    Lyrebird

    @James E Powell: No one in the press/media will ever report that popular programs are being held back or watered down by a handful of corporate-funded assholes. I’m not sure how we can get that message through the noise-cloud of the culture wars.

    And we can’t know how much of the VA blue wave is thanks to the orange dictator wannabe insulting various agencies.  Huge military presence as well, though maybe not all of them vote in VA.

  140. 140.

    Baud

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Nothing will get done in time to influence the elections tomorrow, and after tomorrow, there’s nothing happening politically until the 2022 midterms. So who knows how long this will drag out?

  141. 141.

    Anoniminous

    @James E Powell:

    No one in the press/media will ever report that popular programs are being held back or watered down by a handful of corporate-funded assholes.

    Corporate funded assholes not reporting the corruption of corporate funded assholes?

    Whoduhthunkit?

  142. 142.

    Geminid

    @Anoniminous: If 5 of the ten points that Biden won by were Independents who then swung back to Youngkin, that would make for a tossup. I am not saying this will happen, but Youngkin knows this is his only path to victory and has campaigned accordingly.

  143. 143.

    Kay

    @Betty Cracker:

    Its the same dynamic as 2010. The centrists have their finger in the air trying to determine if they’ll distance from Biden in the midterms, thereby creating the conditions where they would distance from Biden.

    They honestly would be better off if they thought about this less. Do they support the bill, generally? Then go down swinging. The other way never works anyway. Don’t do harm avoidance. There’s no upside to it.

  144. 144.

    rikyrah

    @Gin & Tonic:

     

    Remember those thousands of NYPD officers who were going to quit because of the vaccine mandate? The actual number going on unpaid leave today turned out to be … 34.

     

    I will say it again…

    Where are they going to find another 6 figure job with so few educational requirements?

  146. 146.

    Kay

    @Geminid:

    It’s a shame because I think he’s really far Right economically. Virginia will get the Kansas screwing. He’ll gut the state. Plunder, plunder, plunder. They’re takers. Leave a husk behind.

  147. 147.

    rekoob

    Went to my Registrar on 27 September 2021 and voted for all the Democrats. Guided my brother to do the same last Friday, and I’ll make sure my landlord does so as well. We’re committed to keeping Virginia Blue.

  148. 148.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Baud: That is also true.  Everyone needs it to pass more than they need a resolution now.  Frustrating, but that’s a 50/50 Senate for you.

  150. 150.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Kay:

    I thought this wasn’t supposed to be 2010 again, that the economy was going to be stronger

  151. 151.

    prostratedragon

    @Elizabelle:
    WRT Manchin: one problem may be that the world we are living in no longer matches the one that resides in his head. His assumptions are all off, in the event he has any good faith.

    I’ve been suspecting the first part for some time. The man seems to have no idea where he is. But for some time I’ve also been where Josh Marshall has just announced that he is, that Manchin has no good faith. In that case, the dissonance would be in thinking that he’s not going to be around to reap the consequences of his monkeyshines.

  152. 152.

    Dan B

    @Kay: Jayapal’s background was starting an organization, Hate Free Zone, to provide support for immigrants, especially mideast and South Asian, after 9/11.  To say her base of support is diverse is an understatement.  That organization was renamed One America.  She would be a good candidate for Senator since our Senators are very friendly to big corporate.  Bezos would probably fight her with everything he’s got.  Bezos’ ex would do well to give to One America.

  153. 153.

    MikefromArlington

    Not saying one of Sabato’s reasons isn’t accurate but he kinda has a reason for every result.

    Future punditry.

  156. 156.

    MikefromArlington

    Tbh I never rly liked McAuliff.  He seemed way too political and disingenuous.

    But.

    The alternative is horrible.

  158. 158.

    Tom Q

    @Kay: My feeling is, the centrists are like the Emperor in Amadeus, who told Mozart his music had too many notes — “Just take some out, and it’ll be perfect”. They don’t have any idea what should be taken out, or why; simply reducing the size meets some definition of Being Moderates they live by.

    Of course, the audience at Amadeus was clear the emperor was an idiot. Our centrists have Beltway people telling them they’re saving the party by getting rid of all the popular stuff.

  159. 159.

    bluegirlfromwyo

    @James E Powell: This is a matter for Virginia Democrats’ turnout efforts, especially early/mail voting.

    Some anecdata on this, my true blue NOVA early voting place had a line at 5 pm on the first Friday that satellite voting centers opened (before then, the only in-person early voting was at the government center is the western part of the county) and it’s gone up ever since. Negative partisanship may have gotten hold of Dem voters finally. We’ll see.

  162. 162.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    McAulliffe was the one with the Klan Costume habit in college. I can see that being a bigger deal to Blue voters than the infrastructure bill or Biden’s approvals.

  163. 163.

    Baud

    @bluegirlfromwyo:

    Negative partisanship may have gotten hold of Dem voters finally

    It would be the best thing that could happen to us.  Many people thing of negative partisanship as a bad thing, but I see it as a foundation for everything else we want to achieve.

  166. 166.

    Tom Q

    @The Moar You Know: What I question is whether all those people up in arms are actual swing voters, or simply the usual Fox-trusting suspects who scream at ever louder levels.

    As is being documented elsewhere in these comments: to hear the coverage, you’d think the NYPD was going to be decimated by the vaccine mandate…but, in actuality, the effect is going to be strictly at the margins, among the true-believers.  I wonder if this is the same thing.

  168. 168.

    Baud

    Let’s face it, regardless of who wins tomorrow, there’s no way around dealing with panic-fueled white backlash as long as we seek to make progress on race.

  170. 170.

    Tom Q

    @Baud: If negative partisanship had been more active last year, Dem control of the House would be surer, and Susan Collins would be the ex-Senator she deserves to be.  Republicans getting their voters to that point several cycles before Dems has made this whole Trump-influenced era possible.

  173. 173.

    Anoniminous

    @Geminid:

    According to the Infotainment Mediums Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota 5th was going to be tossed because of a massive turn-out of god-fearing bigots white people because of her criticisms of Israel.  She won by 150,000 votes.

    Since the 2016 election cycle the biggest losers have been the pollsters.  Anyone under 30 doesn’t have a land line and too many people of other ages just don’t answer if they don’t recognize the caller.

    McAuliffe won in 2013 in a squeaker 1,069,789; Northam won easily 1,409,175 to 1,175731 in 2017; Biden won 2,413,568 to 1,962,430.  With Trump not in the race and the GOP candidate not Trump approved or running as a Trump supporter it is more likely the GOP vote will collapse rather than the clear trend of ever-more Democrat votes will.

  174. 174.

    Another Scott

    @Anoniminous: +1

    We should remember the Georgia Senate Runoff, also too.  TFG wasn’t on the ballot and Geminid reminds us that GQP votes fell by 100,000 more than Team D.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  176. 176.

    catclub

    @Baud: Many people thing of negative partisanship as a bad thing, but I see it as a foundation for everything else we want to achieve.

     

    Tying Youngkin to Trump and winning because of it would be a big Biden deal.  Democrats nationalizing hatred of GOP pol.  Nancy Pelosi is on line 1.

  177. 177.

    Brachiator

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    I thought this wasn’t supposed to be 2010 again, that the economy was going to be stronger.

    There are people, including economists, who think the pandemic is just like a recession. It is not. But these people talk about the economy and have expectations about the economy that is little more than a recitation of their standard notebook.

    This affects politicians as well. Especially dopes like Manchin, perhaps.

    I think that Yellen and Fed Chair Powell have a good grasp of things.

    Bottom line, the economy is doing pretty good, but the impact of the pandemic is a huge wild card.

    The old predictions were often wrong. Today they are even more worthless than usual.

  179. 179.

    matt the somewhat reasonable

    I’d expect a result like the California recall despite all the media noise and drama. Surprises are always possible of course.

  180. 180.

    bluegirlfromwyo

    @Baud: 100%. I get so frustrated with my Dem friends who vote for a Gooper because “he’s different” or “it’s just town council” WTF? Where do people think they start marinating in the crazy sauce?

  182. 182.

    janesays

    @Another Scott: The only state Sabato missed in the 2020 presidential election was North Carolina, which he predicted would be a Biden win. He got every other state right (including calling both AZ and GA for Biden), as well as both ME-02 (Trump) and NE-02 (Biden).

    He missed on two senate races – Maine and North Carolina, both off which he predicted would be picked up by the Democrats. He didn’t make a call far either of the Georgia seats (called it a toss-up, which it pretty much was – Ossoff and Warnock ultimately both won by razor thin margins).

    https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/21320/

    I didn’t look at his 2018 predictions, but he was pretty damn accurate in his 2020 forecast. Anyway, the notion that he’s some hackish analyst who skews his bias to the GOP in making predictions isn’t really borne out by the facts. The few calls he got wrong in 2020 were wrong because he predicted Democratic victories that didn’t ultimately happen.

  183. 183.

    Tom Q

    @bluegirlfromwyo: My father just told me he’s voting against a cousin in a minor local race.  The  cousin hates Trump down to his toenails, but he’s always run as a Republican.  My father’s not going to tell the cousin, but he feels Republicans have to be taught a lesson, and not voting for anyone with the (R) is the only way to get that across.

  186. 186.

    Anastasio Beaverhausen

    I live in north Arlington, literally one traffic light from DC.  The neighborhood is deep blue but my very informal yard sign survey  indicates Youngkin has much more support than I would have expected.  But I’ve done my part, having voted early last week.

  187. 187.

    Brachiator

    @Tom Q:

    My father’s not going to tell the cousin, but he feels Republicans have to be taught a lesson, and not voting for anyone with the (R) is the only way to get that across.

    I hope there is a lot of this.

  189. 189.

    Tazj

    I don’t know if anyone has mentioned this yet but Manchin complaining that he wants to see a CBO score on the BBB before he’ll agree to anything is rich. Sam Stein and Bernie Sanders have pointed out that the BIB adds about $256 billion to the deficit but both he and Sinema have dismissed the CBO report on that.

    Senator Brian Schatz doesn’t seemed at all alarmed by Manchin, saying of course there will be a CBO report. Maybe it’s more theater on Manchin’s part, but I don’t know. He’s annoying as hell.

  190. 190.

    bluegirlfromwyo

    @Tom Q: Good for Dad! I’m hoping some of that dynamic stays in VA too. In 2017, one of the losing GOP delegates had a sister who was very vocal about not voting for her brother.

  193. 193.

    topclimber

    @Fair Economist: I will point out yet again that if Biden has the back of the Progressives, they don’t have to take all the heat. He needs to make it clear he will not sign just one bill.

    There  is not a 2/3rds majority in either the House or Senate to override a veto.

    Frack old-school infrastructure for now if we have to, put all the chips on doing the unusual, but not impossible, by winning the 2022 midterms and a bigger chunk of the Senate.

  194. 194.

    RaflW

    @Elizabelle: Just getting back online. Here’s the clip. Your skepticism was probably merited. Higgins paints it as blaming progressives, but Warner was mainly just pushing his own view (which I disagree with) that decoupling BIF from Reconciliation and getting it passed earlier this fall would have been helpful to McAuliffe. (Maybe helpful in the short run, but would have tanked Reconciliation, I believe.)

    Yes those are seeds from which blame could grow, but Warner didn’t go there. The tweet sounded definitive but wasn’t backed up.

  196. 196.

    Dan B

    @Baud: I wasn’t impressed with the name change which happened when Jayapal was still at the helm.

     

    Then again there are many RWNJ orgs that sound like they are happy progressives, at least the name of the organization does.

  197. 197.

    Another Scott

    @janesays:

    I meant things like this from October 2017:

    WASHINGTON — A new Washington Post/Schar School poll says Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam leads Republican challenger Ed Gillespie 53 to 40 percent in next month’s Virginia gubernatorial election among likely voters.

    It is a far wider lead than other polls had found recently and the first to put the Democrat’s lead at a double-digit margin over Gillespie.

    “If that’s what actually held and Northam won by 13 points, it would be a pretty smashing victory for him,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, said Thursday. “Most of the other polls in this race — and I think the opinions of the two campaigns probably — don’t see the lead in the race as that big of a lead for Northam.”

    Kondik said most polls have had the race showing a slight lead for Northam, with the margin in the low single digits.

    However, there is always a chance that this could be the beginning of a new trend in the race, he said.

    “The party that doesn’t hold the White House can often be more motivated to turn out in these off-year elections,” explained Kondik, which could mean seeing results similar to what happened nationally in 2010.

    His colleague Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, wasn’t buying the results of The Washington Post poll, tweeting that the numbers should be looked at skeptically.

    […]

    Northam won 53.9 to 45.0 = 8.9 percentage points.

    NotLarrySabato (who I often disagree with, but who follows VA politics very closely) is slagging Sabato for basically sitting out the race over the summer.

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  198. 198.

    Geminid

    @Anoniminous: I also believe that McAuliffe will win. I was just pointing out Youngkin’s potential path to victory.

    I would point out that as blue as Virginia seems to be, it is not an especially liberal state. Wason Ceter polling has been varied this year as far as party identification ( Virginia does not register by party so the self-identification is the next best thing). But the Center’s ideological self-identifications have been fairly stable. The numbers typically are on the left side: Strong Liberal, 8%; Liberal, 12%; Moderate, Lean Liberal, 24%. On the right side: Strong Conservative, 12%; Conservative, 22%; Moderate, Lean Conservative, 15%. One thing I notice is that the aggregate of the liberal side is 44%, less than the aggregate of 49% on the conservative side.

    To the extent these numbers are valid, Democrats have been winning with the votes of some of the “Moderate, Lean Conservative” group.  That is not surprising given the dominance of the radicals in the Republican party the last decade.

    Youngkin is trying to win back the moderate conservatives, and the bible thumpers and gun nuts that usually repel moderates have been mollified by Youngkin’s attack on CRT, so they have shut up. He has let them know that he is on their side, but needs to win before he can come through for them. Youngkin has spread his money around freely and that helps.

  199. 199.

    Kay

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    I think the economy is stronger. It’s booming here and it’s been booming.

    I don’t understand why the economy gets such low marks. It’s a mystery to me. 2010 really did suck. At the peak of the recession we have 16% unemployment. We’ve been at full employment here for several years now. They can’t find workers because everyone is already working. Factories here have “point systems” where they fire or “suspend” when the worker gets too many points. My clients tell me those are gone. They’re hanging on to everyone they have. My middle son, who is single and hourly, banked 40k the past 4 months working 7 days. He can’t work all the OT they offer. He’s maxed. I worry he’ll think this is a “normal” economy and it’s not.

    People are just sour. They’re pissed off. I don’t know what fixes it. The pandemic was hard, especially for parents. They’re tired and discouraged. You remember being in school. The dailiness of it, how your life revolved around it. Imagine how earth spinning that would be if it just…stopped. They have to recover.

  203. 203.

    Geminid

    @Anoniminous: Youngkin made it clear in the nomination process that he was a trump supporter. But that was a low profile, low turnout process that did not generate the attention a primary would have. This was probably by design.*

    For the general election, Youngkin was then “Strongly  Endorsed” by Donald Trump and has never disavowed that endorsement, or disavowed trump either.

    Youngkin has not brought trump in to campaign for him, but he finessed that issue by not bringing in any outside politicians, as he likes to point out.

    * An writer for Bearing Drift pointed out that most state Republican parties use primaries to select nominees, a few use caucuses and a convention, but Virginia was the exception that could use either, depending on the decision of the party’s state committee. As the writer pointed out, this can allow a candidate to shape the process to his own ends, and it looks like semi-billionaire Youngkin did just that.

  204. 204.

    Betty Cracker

    @Kay: I really think the optimism about the vaccines this summer and how that ran into a brick wall of reality has people pissed off in a general way. I feel it too.

  205. 205.

    Karen

    I live in MD and every ad is either for McAuliffe and Youngkin and I can’t stand it. They’re blaming him for everything, from sexual assaults at schools taking place NOW (when mcAuliffe isn’t in office but the dates they’re referencing they know people won’t look at) and saying he let murderers out of jail. He said he didn’t think parents should tell schools what they should teach and Loudon County schools just had a controversy concerning the rights of trans people (parents protested against it) and as everyone is saying CRT.Honestly I will be shocked if McAuliffe will win because of the dirty tricks Youngkin played with these ads. Well if they vote for Sane Trump then VA becomes Texas and Florida. Goodbye public schools. Hello uptick in COVID deaths of children. If that’s not bad enough to sway them then nothing will.​
    ​
    ​

  206. 206.

    Edmund Dantes

    @MisterForkbeard: it’s why progressives are stupid to pass BIF without BBB going first. Cause as soon as BIF is across the line Manchin will suddenly find some more things he just can’t vote for.

  207. 207.

    dopey-o

    @Geminid: I see a lot of people throwing apples of discord among Democrats. This guy may be one of them.

    Approved for reference to Eris! Dillinger died for your sins.

  209. 209.

    Fair Economist

    @topclimber:

    I will point out yet again that if Biden has the back of the Progressives, they don’t have to take all the heat. He needs to make it clear he will not sign just one bill.

    Oh, totally, but the way the current politics works I think it’s better for the progressives to take the heat (which doesn’t really affect them) and for Biden to play the middle-of-the-road uniter. Which seems to be what they’re actually doing, so from that POV things are fine.

  212. 212.

    Professor Bigfoot

    @Baud: that’s a fact.

    ”Conservatives” are never going to accept that people who are not straight white Christians are legitimate citizens.

  213. 213.

    Gvg

    @James E Powell: if I was a Republican, Manchin is the democrat I would be trying the hardest to whisper false stories too. Act like his buddy and tell him slanted scare stories. He is trying to influence them, so he hangs around and listens sympatheticly. Maybe he thinks he is influencing them but it’s really the other way around.

  214. 214.

    Kayla Rudbek

    @Another Scott: med school, not law school. I was offended by that, but not enough to vote for a modern-day Klansman aka any Rethuglican. I figured that as a Minnesotan damnyankee who’s only here because of my employer, I would defer to the Black Virginian voters whose ancestors were here long before any of mine.
    I have been seeing more Youngkin signs in Old Town Alexandria and in/just north of the Rose Hill neighborhood in the last week or so, but signs don’t vote, after all.

  215. 215.

    hrprogressive

    Virginian here in one of the major metros.

    Trumpkin has played up his apparent roots to Hampton Roads, though I had never heard of him till this campaign, and I have lived here my whole life.

    I see Trumpkin signs everywhere. But I also don’t venture out much due to WFH and this still being a pandemic. But when I do, there’s next to no TMac signs.

    Does that metric matter anymore?

    I don’t know. I haven’t put anything political in my yard during the Trump Regime because I was worried it might get me shot or targeted. So there’s that.

    No one has polled me, so my preferences aren’t captured.

    I have a sinking feeling about all the perceived momentum around Trumpkin, and the idea that it could possibly swing.

    I hope I am wrong.

    Are there any answers that matter?

    T-Mac is an uninspiring generic white guy running a second time. I just don’t have motivation other than “Don’t vote for Fascist Republicans” to do it.

    In a time where we are hurtling towards chaos, still stricken by a pandemic, and a lot of voters are still literally trying to just make ends meet.

    Yeah. Idk.

    I hope the early vote numbers bode well

    I hope the media has to eat crow.

    I don’t know.

    Best I can do here.

  217. 217.

    Kifaru1

    @Barbara:  Also some bond questions where I live in Spotsylvania. High turn out here against the bond questions will likely take us back to a 60 R-40D split and I get another good-hair idiot as my delegate

  219. 219.

    Juju

    @Betty Cracker:  I get that and feel pissed off too, but I’m not pissed off at the President or Democrats. I am royally pissed off at the Trump humping knuckle draggers who refuse to get vaccinated, and all the republicans who enable those anti-vaxxers.

  220. 220.

    Miss Bianca

    @JoyceH: I was in the red part of Virginia over the weekend (Flint Hill, among the horsey set), and it seemed like for every two Youngkin signs there was at least one McAuliffe sign. I don’t know if that means anything, but based just on that evidence it looks like even red Virginia is bluer than red Colorado.

    Wish I could have called for a Virginia BJ moot, but time was just too short.

  222. 222.

    TheTruffle

    Question: I’m not a Virginian. What do you think is the best explanation for how Virginia became more blue?

  223. 223.

    Geminid

    @TheTruffle: Demograpic change is one reason. First and second generation immigrants from other countries are .ore numerous here than average. Native born people from more liberal states have moved here too. The state also has more  college educated than the norm. These groups tend to vote Democratic nowadays.

    The second reason, I think, has been the radicalization of the Virginia Republican party. An alliance of secular tea party cranks and bible thumpers has won power within the party. These people and their hard-right policies tend to repel moderate Republican and Independent voters.

  224. 224.

    TheTruffle

    @Geminid: Thank you! I’ve got my fingers crossed for VA today.

    At least down in NJ, Murphy looks like he will be cruising to reelection.

  225. 225.

    Czar Chasm

    @TheTruffle: There’s also been a huge population influx around most major cities, causing almost all of them to be very blue (Virginia Beach is an exception, but still holds a very large number of Democratic voters); this appears to be irrespective of location:  Roanoke in the very red Southwest is blue.

     

    This effect has been spreading to a lot of counties adjacent to these urban centers, as that’s where the affordable housing is now.  This has also contributed to some rural General Assembly seats to become competitive for the first time in decades.

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