Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Tick tock motherfuckers!

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Bark louder, little dog.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

A dilettante blog from the great progressive state of West Virginia.

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

“But what about the lurkers?”

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Why did Dr. Oz lose? well, according to the exit polls, it’s because Fetterman won.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Let there be snark.

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Reader Interactions

266Comments

  1. 1.

    Elizabelle

    I refuse to watch cable or TV stations. Is there a good, nonhysterical online source of news on Virginia election results?? National results?

    Thank you

    PS:  Thank you, John, for the thread.  Please FSM, let us have a good night.

  6. 6.

    Anoniminous

    From here:

    5:15 p.m. — The McAuliffe campaign tells 10 On Your Side they’ve already surpassed voter turnout in democratic strongholds Fairfax and Prince William County compared with 2017. They’re tracking a very high turnout among Black voters in Newport News.

    Encouraging

  13. 13.

    ALurkSupreme

    Dave Wasserman
    @Redistrict

    Breaking in Loudoun Co.: 71k votes reported and McAuliffe wins the batch 55%-45%.
    @vpapupdates is reporting those are *Election Day* votes, not EV/VBM. If that’s true, it would be a good result for McAuliffe. #VAGOV

  16. 16.

    brendancalling

    @Elizabelle: over at Progress Pond, I regularly flog that spittle-mouthed, boot-licking, lame-brained fountain of wrongness. Cillizza is the fucking WORST. Not in terms of his politics, which are themselves borderline moron in the original clinical sense, but in terms of his atrocious takes and his even worse writing. I’m working toward being a high school English teacher, and no joke, some of my stronger 10th graders produce better work than Cillizza does. I’m not on Twitter anymore, but it used to be a delight to see Soledad O’Brien flay him alive.

    Ugh, Cillizza. Just the name sounds like a particularly painful and persistent STD.

  17. 17.

    Geminid

    Rachel Bitecofer moved back home to Oregon, but she’s tweeting tonight about Virginia data. Her last was, “Aargh! So many mixed signals!”

  19. 19.

    Another Scott

    Fingers crossed for Team D all around the country! Fortunately, I have work I need to get done tonight, so I won’t be hitting Refresh on the BlueVirginia.US liveblog every 15 seconds…

    (sigh)

    In other news, for our corvid-curious bloghost…

    FYI – We celebrate crows as part of a festival which begins today. First day is when we worship crows and it starts tomorrow!https://t.co/KtNWg0heb9

    — Prajjwal (@prajjwalpanday) November 2, 2021

    (via CT_Bergstrom)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  21. 21.

    Redshift

    We definitely had strong turnout in my Fairfax precinct today. It’s hard to compare to previous gubernatorial elections because this is the first time we’ve had real early voting for one. I feel like there were more Republicans than usual, but I also know more Dems voted early. (More than usual, but not a majority, we’re still a solidly Democratic precinct.)

    In short some things were good, some were nerve-wracking, and I don’t feel like I can give any solid judgement.

  22. 22.

    Omnes Omnibus

    So I don’t know VA’s counties well enough to know whether any particular results should cause me to panic.  Is it acceptable for me to just panic in general, just to be sure?

  24. 24.

    Geminid

    @guachi: There definitely was a high turnout. Counting of absentee ballots may not be finished until Friday or Saturday, so this may not be decided until then, if it’s close.

  25. 25.

    TaMara (HFG)

    While I’m interested in VA – I’m more invested in the outcome of the local candidates I supported. Polls don’t close until 7 MDT and then I don’t know how long for results because I don’t remember from 4 yrs ago.

    Last election I voted for the Mayor that came recommended by the current mayor and several other sources – that he would continue the solid policies the current mayor had set forth. The catch? He was a Republican (even though our races do not have political affiliations, technically) and he turned out to be a trump loving/anti-vax/covid-hoax disaster.

    Won’t make a mistake like that again. Guess he was also a complete ass at meetings, yelling, swearing and interrupting and abusive to the female council members.

  26. 26.

    guachi

    More results indicate Youngkin basically hitting the numbers he needs to eke out a win. So likely a close race with 30% reporting.

    I.e., Youngkin by about 2 points.

  27. 27.

    NotMax

    So will it be Fox, Newsmax or OAN stationing staff to solicit comment from “average everyday Virginians” on the campus of Liberty U.?

  29. 29.

    bemused senior

    @Elizabelle: the live feed on the front page of the wapo. Reporter just gave a great description of what various tranches of votes signified, based on geography and trump margin.

  30. 30.

    Geminid

    @Omnes Omnibus: The city of Staunton seems to mirror statewide voting. Chris Saxman wrote about this yesterday in Bearing Drift, comparing Staunton’s results since 2008 with results statewide. It’s uncanny how closely they track.

  32. 32.

    PsiFighter37

    Going to be a nail biter at best. Looks like the GOP has found a non-Trump driver of turnout in the form of a boogeyman named critical race theory. Jesus Christ how ridiculous this country is.

  38. 38.

    Martin

    Turnout is high, and models suggest a toss up. Data is uneven, though as early mail in votes may or may not be reported depending on county. Just need to wait it out.

  41. 41.

    debbie

    None of the races here have any national significance, but there are controversies nonetheless. The BOE is reporting a more than 18% increase over the last off-year election for early and absentee voting. Hope this becomes a trend!

  46. 46.

    Lyrebird

    @Elizabelle: ​How does Cillizza still have a job? And he arrived at CNN from the Washington Post. Arrrgh!

     

    You can say that again! Arrrgh!

    While Prof. Harris-Perry has no show, that bozo has a huge megaphone. Ugh. Another reason I do not get cable.

  47. 47.

    Redshift

    @Omnes Omnibus: Even if you did, it would be hard to judge this year. I’m the past, the time it took counties to report results was somewhat proportional to population, so we’d always see Goopers ahead at the beginning when small rural counties reported, and then a big shift at the end when the big Democratic counties come in.

    Last year, we had real early voting for the first time, but counties weren’t allowed to start tabulating early votes until the polls closed, leading to an even later Dem shift. This year they can, so results from early voting in big Dem counties may come in fairly early.

    So everything’s scrambled, and we may be less able to guess where things will end up.

  48. 48.

    Martin

    @TheTruffle: Took a few days in 2020. I don’t know exactly how it works in VA, but here in CA it can take a month because the registrars reconcile any issues before they count a ballot. If the ballot looks spoiled, they contact the voter to clarify it. Then they count it, rather than counting it and possibly throwing it out later under a challenge, etc.

    It’s a better system because it’s harder to game. But it’s a lot slower. I expect as more Dem legislation on preserving the validity of the ballot passes, this process will slow down in more places.

  52. 52.

    NotMax

    @guachi

    Heh. Just now made the snap decision to enjoy some episodes of the Jack Benny Program.

    On a different internet forum recently, saw someone else make reference to him and there were easily a half dozen responses which followed asking “Who’s Jack Benny?” Le sigh.

  53. 53.

    Martin

    @debbie: Yeah, I think the consistently higher turnout is the meaningful bit to take from this. Dems generally benefit from higher turnout so if this is a durable trend, it a good thing to go into 2022 with.

  57. 57.

    Cacti

    After all the terrorist crap that Youngkin stirred up in Loudoun County, I’m glad to see he’s losing there by double digits.

  58. 58.

    TheTruffle

    Logged out because Sabato was saying it was better for the GOP in VA tonight.

     

    Why is everyone fixated on VA anyway?

  60. 60.

    guachi

    @NotMax: Wife and I listen to the Jack Benny radio program in the car on long drives. I knew of Jack Benny when I was growing up but never actually watched or listened to him. His show is quite funny.

  62. 62.

    TheTruffle

    @Martin: So no one will be giving concession speeches tonight, no matter what anyone on Twitter says?

    I’m taking a Twitter break.

  63. 63.

    Elizabelle

    @Cacti:  Someone told me Biden won Loudoun County by 25 points. I have never checked it out, but Loudoun has swung reliably Dem, apparently … maybe Redshift will know.

  64. 64.

    hueyplong

    Spouse agrees with Cole. Merely reporting my agreement with a fellow ridge runner (Cole) as I increase no-TV, no-stress inebriation.

    • (Drops fork, believing it to be a mic)
  65. 65.

    Elizabelle

    @guachi:  My parents loved Jack Benny.  Also Jackie Gleason.  I remember the June Taylor Dancers (that someone years ago parodied with photos of the June Taylor Quails).

  66. 66.

    Cacti

    Not a huge margin for TMac in early in person voting (11 points).  Enormous advantage in early vote by mail (58 points).  Over 900,000 early ballots still outstanding.

  67. 67.

    Elizabelle

    @Martin:   I am always pleased when younger people can identify the Rolling Stones.  Or the Beatles.  It is hardly a given.

  68. 68.

    Tazj

    @TheTruffle: The media really want to see a Republican comeback story and they want to chastise Democrats. Same as always. They want to gloat.

    I shouldn’t really have to care that much about what happens in Virginia but in these times every Republican victory seems like an existential threat.

  69. 69.

    Shana

    @Elizabelle: bluevirginia.us has a live blog. I don’t regularly read it of late so I don’t know if it’s what you’re after but I recall them as pretty good.

  70. 70.

    E.

    OK in full panic mode right now. For the country.

    ““The model is stabilizing around Youngkin +3 with 32% of the vote in. Things are close enough and there are enough votes left in Fairfax where McAuliffe could win, but the model sees a pretty likely (70%) R win in Virginia tonight. And a swing to Rs of at least 10 pts either way.” From bluevirginia live blog.

  71. 71.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    I didn’t know there were elections in NH

    Aaron Jacobs @AFJacobs 14m
    Democrats tonight have won in NH’s biggest city and NH’s reddest city. #NHPolitics

    Jacobs is Maggie Hassan’s campaign manager. Maggie Hassan has a tough race coming up.

  72. 72.

    Elizabelle

    @TheTruffle:

    Why is everyone fixated on VA anyway?

    Well, I live here.  As do several other Juicers.  Former red state, now purple/blue.  Former capital of the Confederacy, and home to “massive resistance” to school integration after Brown vs. the Board of Education.  But, it changed with population influx to Northern Virginia and elsewhere.

    Last Republican to win as governor was Robert McDonnell, in 2009.  We have two Democratic US Senators, Tim Kaine and Mark Warner.  Democrats currently hold all state executive offices, and the legislature.  That is new.

    AND:  national media is using Virginia as a referendum on Biden — that would be the “unpopular Biden” who is “dragging Democrats down.” You know.  The failed exit from Afghanistan.  (Fuck them for that, very much.)

    Youngkin is worth about $600 million, and was former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group, and megabucks private equity firm.  He is smooth and actually very well educated, compared to TFFG.  (Mechanical Engineering degree from Rice; Harvard MBA — which aids in the soullessness, no doubt.)

    He was always going to be a formidable candidate.  The question is, will Virginia fall for it?

  73. 73.

    japa21

    I’m calling it a night. Looks likely to be a GOP sweep of both statewide and local races. Despite all the claims that CRT was a big driver, exit polls seem to show it played a minor role.

  79. 79.

    TheTruffle

    New Jersey, meanwhile, has re-elected Murphy.

    I guess this is where Dems lick their wounds and fight another day.

    @E.: I feel bad for VA. But next up is 2022.

  80. 80.

    gene108

    @PsiFighter37:

    Going to be a nail biter at best. Looks like the GOP has found a non-Trump driver of turnout in the form of a boogeyman named critical race theory. Jesus Christ how ridiculous this country is.

    Thinking about the CRT hysteria and I realize why it’s so effective. Even suburban Democratic leaning voters don’t want their children’s education harmed by too much black-ity blackness invading their schools.

    Plus, billionaires poured a few millions dollars to get people to school board meeting and to setup where to organize.

  82. 82.

    ProfDamatu

    Not liking the current results on the department of elections website. Sadly, it’s starting to look like enough Virginians are racist, stupid, or both to give it to Trumpkin. Thank goodness the VA Senate isn’t up this year, because it would be profoundly depressing to lose all of the progress we’ve made in the past several years.

  86. 86.

    guachi

    Welp, my Rifleman episode ended and I glance at Twitter to see Dave Wasserman has called VA Gov for Youngkin. And when Wasserman calls the race, it’s over.

  87. 87.

    ProfDamatu

    @schrodingers_cat: Probably because it’s 58-42 with about half of the precincts reporting statewide. As for the early vote, I think that varies by locality as to when it is tabulated.

  93. 93.

    Lepercorn

    @ProfDamatu: Basically it’s because of the benchmarks. Youngkin has been ahead of where he needed to be in all of them. And early votes were counted 1st thing. This really suck.

  94. 94.

    Wyatt Salamanca

    @NotMax:

    @guachi:

    Fortunately, YouTube has a number of Jack Benny programs as well as the Burns and Allen Show, which I recommend if you enjoy Benny.

    Comedy historian Kliph Nesteroff contends that the work of all comedians has a limited shelf life, but I completely disagree. I find the Jack Benny program and the Burns and Allen Show still incredibly funny after all these years.

  95. 95.

    Barbara

    @Elizabelle: Me neither, except that I think Republicans in VA have been desperate for a statewide win for a while. This was definitely their best chance.

  97. 97.

    TheTruffle

    Do you think Youngkin will be more like Charlie Baker or DeSantis? If the Senate is still heavily Dem, he has that to contend with, yes? What about the AG/Lt Gov races?

  101. 101.

    Suzanne

    In addition to Virginia, I am eagerly watching our local election. Pittsburgh might elect its first Black Mayor, and I’m getting a new City Councilman. No results yet.

  103. 103.

    Adam L Silverman

  108. 108.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    any word on the state legislature?

    also, is no one talking about New Jersey because Murphy has it locked up? I remember in 2009 New Jersey was a bellwether, and in 2013 Chris Christie was the rising Republican star.

  109. 109.

    ProfDamatu

    @Lepercorn: Okay, apologies for providing wrong information, but I think you can see how the current dept. of elections counts could also be viewed as the reason. I promise, I’m not usually an ill-informed moron who just spouts off, just very dispirited about how much worse our lives are about to get in this state.

    I honestly thought my fellow Virginians were better than this. I guess not. I mean, geez, it looks to be a clear loss. But then, I’ve been saying that the state may not be as blue as has been assumed, sorry to have been wrong about that.

  110. 110.

    lowtechcyclist

    @guachi: ​
     

    Well damn, I look away from the Numbers Peeps thread just long enough to see what’s happening here, and I miss Wasserman’s call.

    Rachel Bitecofer said something over there that I’ve been thinking about ever since about 2010: a lot of Dem Party people think you can start your campaign after Labor Day, but that’s not how it works anymore. The Republicans start telling a story early and building on it, and if it goes uncountered for months, it’s not easy to dislodge.

  112. 112.

    Adam L Silverman

  113. 113.

    Elizabelle

    OK.  I thought Terry Mac would pull it out.  One big difference with Ed Gillespie, the GOP challenger in Northam’s 2017 race.  I would not guess he had a lot of pull in rural areas/SW Virginia.  We did have a lot of MS-13/Salvadoran gangs scarifying.

    Sounds like the deplorables voted in spades. Alas.  To see.

    A lot of found time for me.  Cannot bear to watch/read the news in coming days.

    Virginia deserves better.  Biden deserves better.

  115. 115.

    Wyatt Salamanca

    @Elizabelle:

     I don’t know what to think.

    If Dave Wasserman has called this race, then it’s over.  Any  analyst can make mistakes when projecting outcomes, but his track record is extremely strong, so we have to accept this loss and move on.

  117. 117.

    Starfish

    @lowtechcyclist: No one wants forever campaigns. Get rid of all the PACs and no one starts before Labor Day. These folks need to do their damn jobs and not run for office all the time.

  118. 118.

    guachi

    CRT was a genius move by Rs. Something almost no one has heard so you can define it however you want. Also, it involves Black people and doesn’t involve Trump. Presto! Instant white person vote getter.

  121. 121.

    NotMax

    @Elizabelle

    What kind of genre(s)?

    If looking for brain candy, might check out the super-shticky These Old Broads, if for no other reason Liz Taylor’s turn as a pushy Noo Yawk dame.

  124. 124.

    Cacti

    @lowtechcyclist: The Republicans start telling a story early and building on it, and if it goes uncountered for months, it’s not easy to dislodge.

    Basically this.

    Repukes create an imaginary problem (CRT), then spend months saturating the airwaves about how they’re the only ones who can protect everyone from it.

    Appeals to the lizard brain are powerful. Dems consistently believe that the average voter will see through it and make a rational choice, which proves wrong over and over.

  126. 126.

    ProfDamatu

    @Elizabelle: Let’s hope. Sadly, I think there’s very little chance of that – I don’t think that the Lt. Gov.  or AG have much salience to typical voters. Like, it’s not as if your typical low information voter thinks, “well, I like that nice down to earth Youngkin fellow, but Herring has done such a good job, let’s keep him.” I suspect that most folks who know who the AG candidates are, will be committed political types…and the rest will just vote for the laundry, so to speak. Hope I’m wrong about that.

  128. 128.

    Chris

    @ProfDamatu:

    I was hoping Virginia might be moving in the direction of California, not only blue leaning but actually blue enough to be unwinnable for Republicans.  Alas, apparently it’s instead following the tradition of the many idiotic East Coast states that insist on inflicting Chris Christies and Larry Hogans and Susan Collinses on themselves (except apparently, without even the pretense of moderation).

  131. 131.

    Starfish

    @Starfish: Someone told me they found the mayor drunk and had to help him get home. I was part of some leadership training thing, and everyone was offended by your mayor.

    It is interesting because I thought there were three factions to your city council, and one of the people running for mayor is from the lefty faction. I hope she wins.

  132. 132.

    Wyatt Salamanca

    @Elizabelle:

    Don’t forget the gridlock created by Manchin and Sinema.  Much of the blame for Terry McAuliffe’s defeat can be laid at the feet of these two obstructionist assholes.

  135. 135.

    Elizabelle

    Well.  Here is the time to announce:  this has been booked for a while, but next Tuesday I leave for Germany.  Starting the trip in Berlin, then will hang around with my friend near Nuremberg.

    For months.  Not coming back until mid-January, if current plans hold out.

    Will be in Berlin Wednesday lunch through some point on Sunday (then train to Czech Republic).

    I am particularly interested in the original Nazis and their use of propaganda.  The Topography of Terror exhibit has been recommended.

    Any other recommendations??

    I have a LOT to do with closing up the apartment and getting ready for the trip.  I was hoping to be a bit happier about Virginia’s immediate future, though.

  136. 136.

    senyordave

    @Wyatt Salamanca: I agree, and I think both of them have no problem with that.  In fact, I suspect that they take a perverse pleasure in knowing they helped to cause the debacle.

  137. 137.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Elizabelle: Because from a results perspective this is a red wave in Virginia. The question right now isn’t whether the Republicans are able to pick up the 6 seats they need to flip the House of Delegates. The question is whether they take most or all of the 14 seats currently held by Democrats that are potential Democratic to Republican swings.

  138. 138.

    Feathers

    @guachi: Also full blame to Manchin and Sinema for blocking Biden’s promised agenda from passage. A lot of people said we worked hard, we got nothing, why should we do the same thing again?

    We know why, but I can see why “ we gave you the House, Senate, and White House, why are we getting nothing?” When student loan payments start up again next year, we’ll be close to losing a generation of voters. I don’t know where they’ll go, but the won’t be enthusiastic Dems like they would have been. People are ready to fuck shit up.

  139. 139.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    no doubt CRT was a big motivator for trump-humpers, but I suspect we might be seeing a different result if child vaccination had come along in July and gas prices had jumped less

    we have no idea what the state of Covid will be a year from now, nor the broad economy

    also, Youngkin successfully kept trump at arm’s length. Not every candidate is going to be able to do that, or want to, next year

  140. 140.

    Chris

    @Wyatt Salamanca:

    Yeah, and between this and remembering what all of 2009 was like, I think it’s increasingly clear that this is the actual goal of the Lieberman/Manchin type “centrists,” and not a byproduct.  Every time a new Democratic president comes to Washington, the centrist brigade considers it its duty to kneecap him and his majorities as much as possible, leading to the 1994, 2010, and, presumably, 2022 bloodbaths.

    To the extent that it’s not just complete corruption, they think they’re being Responsible Statesman by Tempering Partisanship and preventing anyone on their side from becoming The Democratic Trump (the Republican Trump is somebody else’s problem, because reasons).  All that “too broad-minded to take their own side in a quarrel” crap.  But the end result is the same.  This is the actual goal, which is why their demands in Congress are a meaningless gibberish of constantly moving goalposts whose only goal is to drag things out as long as possible.

  141. 141.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: The outstanding question is moving from whether the Republicans can pick up the six seats they need to flip the House of Delegates to how close will they get to flipping all of the 14 seats that seem to be most likely to swing from Democratic to Republican if this is indeed a Republican wave in Virginia.

  142. 142.

    Geminid

    @gene108: Youngkin’s campaign against CRT may or may not have gotten him the independent voters he needs to win. But it was a good issue with which to rally the Republican base. Youngkin could soft peddle issues like guns and abortion that turn off suburban independents because CRT still excited conservatives.

  143. 143.

    ProfDamatu

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Like someone else said, I’m guessing basically no chance we hang onto the House of Delegates; it just doesn’t track that the electorate turned full Trumpkin at the state level, and then sends back their Democratic delegates in those tight districts. And I was hoping this might be the year that my district might finally be represented by a sane individual, rather than the usual hyper-conservative. We’ve been trending the that direction, but I suppose that momentum has been stopped in its tracks.

    I’ll say again, thank goodness the Senate wasn’t up this year. It’s not as liberal as you might hope, but at least there will be one veto point. It’s just depressing; we’ve had a few years of making actual progress, and we now stand to lose big chunks of it.

  144. 144.

    Elizabelle

    @Wyatt Salamanca:  I am quite sure of that.

    A deal on BBB and BIF would have buoyed the Democrats.

    We live in interesting times.  May those who voted for the Virginia GOP, and those who did not bother to vote at all, get what they deserve.  Good and hard.

  145. 145.

    PsiFighter37

    Stupid fucking people. Seriously, Glenn Youngkin is like Mitt Romney, but less successful and more detestable. How the fuck does Virginia do this after we have been moving the needle the right direction all these years?

    Fuck me. We are in deep, deep trouble.

  146. 146.

    Steeplejack

    Ask yourself why @Sen_JoeManchin didn’t hold his press conference in which he trashed Democrats on Wednesday *after* the pivotal elections in Virginia and New Jersey instead of on Monday the day *before* them.

    — Don Winslow (@donwinslow) November 2, 2021

  148. 148.

    Elizabelle

    @Adam L Silverman:  In happier news:  any suggestions on Berlin?  On what else I can study, in my study of the Nazis and their successful use of propaganda?

    It has seemed apropos, for several years now.

  150. 150.

    ProfDamatu

    @Chris: That would actually be a better interpretation than what I fear; after all, that crap we see in New England at least comes from a baseline of “nice New England Republicans.” Here, I’m afraid we are still the South, so like you say, the type of R’s we inflict on ourselves will be much, much worse.

    I should probably STFU about it, though; I’ve only lived in VA for 15 years, and I know that doesn’t really make me all that knowledgeable about the history.

  151. 151.

    David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch

    Virginia has voted opposite of the party holdin the WH in governor’s races for 40 years

    When Reagoon and Bush Sr. were president they voted three consecutive times for Dem governors

    When Clinton was president they voted twice for repugs

    When Dubya was president they voted twice for Dem governors

    When Obama was president it was split, in the first term they voted for a repug, but he was so corrupt they voted for a Dem during Obama’s 2nd term.

    When Dump was president they voted for a Dem governor.

    This behavioral pattern that has gone on for over 40 years. The media will try to make it something it isn’t but it is no different than the historic behavioral pattern of the party holdin the WH losing some seats during midterm elections.

  152. 152.

    Feathers

    @Steeplejack: And why Youngkin came out as opposing gay marriage the day before the election. Too late for the opposition to get the news out, but I’m guessing his side knew it was coming and could get those last robocalls out.

  155. 155.

    ProfDamatu

    @Elizabelle: Yeah. Too bad the ones who are going to be getting it “good and hard” are going to be disproportionately the poor and POC, who, at least in the latter case, probably didn’t vote R.

  156. 156.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Daniel Nichanian (@Taniel) is a numbers wonk covering every race that isn’t VA, because as he says, everyone else is all VA all the time

    ETA:

    Taniel @Taniel 17m

    A big picture check-in at 8:30pm:

    —GOP are very strong in Virginia
    —Dems on path in NJ but still very early
    —Progressives way ahead in Boston, Cleveland
    —Dems keep Manchester, St Petersburg
    —Police-boosting side down in Austin, Cleveland
    —Large expected leads for Gainey, Krasner

  157. 157.

    Elizabelle

    @PsiFighter37:

    Glenn Youngkin is like Mitt Romney

    And that’s exactly why he’s always been a formidable candidate.  He is smooth, and does not scare people.

    Virginia gets to find out what it bought itself.

    People take too much for granted.  And we have money arrayed against democracy.

  160. 160.

    Cacti

    White women voted big for Youngkin.  16 point margin.

    That was probably the difference maker.

  161. 161.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Wyatt Salamanca: @senyordave: This isn’t directed at either of you specifically, but given both of your comments it provides me a good opening for this comment.

    There’s a reason I’ve been bringing this up as part of my professional concerns repeatedly on the front page and in comments, I’ve been tracking a lot of the political organizing professionals in VA on social media. A lot, if not a majority of them have been very, very, very concerned for several weeks. Which is why I kept bringing this up repeatedly as a likely if not the most likely outcome.

    What David Corn just tweeted and I just posted, that Black turnout fell off, is a huge problem. Black voters are the base of the Democratic coalition. The only Democratic voters even close to as reliable are Jews and we’re a rounding error as part of the population. If Black turn out falls off somewhere with no new voter suppression, that tells us something. What it tells us is they’re not happy with what is going on; they’re not happy with what Democrats are doing. I’ve heard this directly from some of the folks I work with on getting the bases renamed. These are highly educated, highly engaged people. They know that things are being held up by Manchin and Sinema and complete GOP obstruction and my conversation on this on Friday started with “Biden is failing us!”

    This was not just predictable, it was predicted. And ignoring it and telling those of us trying to get everyone’s attention about it that we were over reacting or don’t know anything about what is going on in VA (or insert state here) or that we should lighten up is simply not acceptable. Tragedy can be averted next year, but it is going to be very, very, very hard to do so. The structure of the 2022 midterms creates the opportunity and weights the scales towards a very bad outcome.

  162. 162.

    guachi

    @Adam L Silverman: Go read an exit poll on how important parents controlling what gets taught in schools was and the racial breakdown of the VA electorate.

     

    Then get back to me.

  165. 165.

    senyordave

    Expect CRT or some version of it to pop up in any borderline state.  It is a brilliant move, play the reverse racism card and have the mainstream media act as if it is a real thing.  Meanwhile Fox News will motivate the faithful.  You end up with a motivated hard right and shaky moderate support.  In addition, Mansinema has the progressives pissed.  A large amount of white people will respond well to dog whistle politics.

    The scary thing to me has always been this:

    Trump in 2020 was an unbelievably bad candidate and he only lost by 4.4%, and if something like 60,000 votes were switched he would have won.

    Very scary times ahead, the Dems better pass something big soon.

  166. 166.

    Elizabelle

    @ProfDamatu:   I know.  Always.  Please let us not lose Medicaid expansion.

    BRIGHT SPOT, PEOPLE:  and I had to look for this one:  in Virginia, governors cannot succeed themselves.  SO, we only have Youngkin, if he is elected, for four years.

    Although, he may preside as though he has national ambitions.

    Lucky us.

  171. 171.

    ProfDamatu

    @Adam L Silverman: Are you hearing talk that Black voters are specifically not happy with what the executive + legislative in Virginia have been doing, hence the low turnout? Or is it that dissatisfaction with what is happening at the national level depressed their turnout? Because if it’s the former, we have a very scary problem on our hands. EDIT – “we” meaning Democrats in Virginia.

  174. 174.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Elizabelle: Shoot me an email using the contact a front pager tool. I don’t want to do anything cheerful that will run counter to the comments here.

  175. 175.

    Geminid

    @Adam L Silverman: The commenter was not referring to a Bitecofer election model, a political science matter. He was referring to her criticism about not campaigning hard until Labor Day. That’s a matter of political engineering.

  176. 176.

    CaseyL

    No excuses  about stories that didn’t get out soon enough or got out too soon, or issues voters “didn’t understand,” or about media fluffing the GQP candidate.

    I am sick of treating voters like mental defectives who have to be spoon fed easily digested facts lest they throw a tantrum. Whether a left-wing tantrum of “you didn’t do enough for me so I’m sitting this one out” or the right-wing tantrum of “You are not the boss of me!”

    I am sick of it even, and especially, if it is true. 

    If that’s who we are as a country, then it doesn’t matter how many good smart voters there are; the plain fact is there aren’t enough.

    If Democratic voters are that fickle, that feckless, that not getting the goody bag Biden promised means they won’t get out and vote, then the plain fact is that Democratic voters suck as bad as GQP voters.

    I am just so incredibly, incredibly sick of this country, of white people, and my species generally.

  178. 178.

    Elizabelle

    @David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:   That’s true.

    But we were not up against the Republican party we face now.  They are radicals, who supported an insurrection.

    I can’t wait to hear the questions I am going to hear from Germans.

    I was in Spain the summer of 2016.  Warned so much about Trump by people in Barcelona.  Many of them lived through Franco.  They knew.

  180. 180.

    Elizabelle

    @Adam L Silverman:   Thank you, Adam.  I will.  Tomorrow.

    I am serious about spending some quality time with this little Frenchie.  Gonna take her over to play with a corgi.  Whose mom will also be devastated.

  181. 181.

    Steeplejack

    I think I’m going to pack it in and take to my bed. I’m getting over a cold, I was grumpy all day, and I’m exhausted after dragging myself out to vote (which was easy—my precinct is very small and I never have to wait). I’ll catch up on the threads here, check Twitter and watch the Braves-Astros game on my Chromebook. The Virginia governor’s race is way too close, in a not-looking-good way, so I’ll avoid the wall-to-wall MSNBC coverage and just suffer through whatever random updates I run across. ?

    ETA: Home run for the Braves—up 3-0 in the third inning. At least that’s one good thing.

  185. 185.

    Elizabelle

    Before I go, thank you to everyone who voted for Democrats today.  Especially here.

    Do not give up.  We can’t.

    And CaseyL has a point.

  186. 186.

    JWR

    Sheriff Alex Villanueva is really pissing me off with this feud with the L.A. city counsel over the vaccine mandate. He’s one slimy-ass pol.

  187. 187.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @Elizabelle:

    Was just the other day remembering your time in Barcelona. Would have guessed it was two, at most three, years ago. Cannot believe it was five years ago!

  189. 189.

    PsiFighter37

    @CaseyL: Unfortunately there are a lot of white people in this country, and that ain’t changing.

    What has happened in countries like Hungary and most of Europe (where the center-left parties have been decimated). Is coming for us next. Watch out.

  190. 190.

    Peale

    @Adam L Silverman: yep. Will wait for tomorrow when there’s a more complete picture. Some voters switched sides. Others might have stayed home. We can’t repeat 2010 but will if the former happens.

  191. 191.

    Elizabelle

    @SiubhanDuinne:  I’ve been back since.  For longer in 2017 or 18.  I forget …

    And gonna be there for New Year’s Eve this year.  Please let 2022 be a better year.  For all of us.

    I’ll call you this week, bud.

  192. 192.

    Starfish

    @ProfDamatu: Turn out is always lower in off-cycle elections, and we actually spend money to get out the vote in the years that end in multiples of 2.

    However, I would not be surprised if “Hey, you could not bother to get voting rights done, I am staying home.”

  193. 193.

    Barbara

    My own personal view is that the pandemic has been hard and traumatizing for many people and that many people are numb. Also that Republicans have been desperate for a statewide victory and seeing that opportunity this year goofed their turnout.

  196. 196.

    burnspbesq

    I knew Youngkin’s dad from a mail list of Duke basketball supporters. Really nice guy, but a Neanderthal on race and gender issues.

    Apple fell directly under the tree. Hoping against hope that he turns out to be less horrible than I expect.

  198. 198.

    Wyatt Salamanca

    @Chris:

    @Feathers:

    @senyordave:

    When Manchin and Sinema depart this mortal coil, I hope their souls land in the VIP section of Hell alongside Trump, Pence, McConnell, McCarthy and all the other Rethuglican politicians as well as their media allies who drove a stake through the heart of this American experiment.

  199. 199.

    CaseyL

    @PsiFighter37: I may take up smoking again.  I do miss it, I enjoyed it, and WTF am I trying to stay alive and healthy for when the world is turning to shit all around me?

  200. 200.

    ProfDamatu

    @Starfish: Yes, I know that off-off year elections have lower turnout (indeed, I suspect that is rather the point of having our Governor elections timed this way; to depress turnout). However, I’ve been hearing that turnout overall isn’t low like it normally would be; the issue is that the electorate is *whiter* than usual. So, lower turnout among BIPOC.

  203. 203.

    Eolirin

    @Adam L Silverman: I think the problem we all run into, is if that’s all true and it probably is, then we probably aren’t going to be able to win via voting and the Republicans are probably going to break voting itself as a remedy to the messes they make going forward once they’re back in power, so then what?

    If our survival as a democracy rests on holding the house and growing the senate next year and that isn’t likely to be possible, what do we do?

    Because having our hair on fire about things we can’t possibly control or influence, like how Manchin and Sinema act isn’t actually helpful. How do we avoid another VA, and if we can’t, what’s the next thing we can do?

  204. 204.

    Cassandra

    @Adam L Silverman:

    People need to believe the polls. A significant majority of Americans view the Biden administration as an abject failure. And you can’t just blame the media – the Democrats are not promoting policies the majority of Americans want. Full stop. The fact is that many, many of Trump’s policies are very popular with voters. Americans want a closed border, they want greater funding for police and zero tolerance for criminals, they want low prices, they want America first. They want Republican governance. And it isn’t just White people, as Trump and Youngkin’s gains among non-Whites show.

  206. 206.

    Chris

    @CaseyL:

    I am sick of treating voters like mental defectives who have to be spoon fed easily digested facts lest they throw a tantrum. Whether a left-wing tantrum of “you didn’t do enough for me so I’m sitting this one out” or the right-wing tantrum of “You are not the boss of me!”

    This.

    I go back and forth on how much is the politicians’ fault and how much is the voters (and clearly the two reflect each other), but it’s pretty clear that a shit ton attaches to the voters, too.

  207. 207.

    Ohio Mom

    @sab: Thank you for that piece of happy news. Maybe I should stop reading while I’m ahead.

    I accept that many voters are fickle—they don’t think Biden is delivering, so they are staying home for unrelated elections. But that way of thinking is so foreign to me that I can only accept that on faith, I can’t understand it. Even when I was a normie, i never missed voting and I always voted the straight Democratic ticket.

  210. 210.

    matt

    I’ve been away from politics a while, but I never thought Cathode Ray Tubes would be an issue.

  211. 211.

    Chris

    @Eolirin:

    @Adam L Silverman: I think the problem we all run into, is if that’s all true and it probably is, then we probably aren’t going to be able to win via voting and the Republicans are probably going to break voting itself as a remedy to the messes they make going forward once they’re back in power, so then what?

    This.

  214. 214.

    TheflipPsyd

    @Adam L Silverman: So what do we do? What steps as individuals and as a collective  can we take to fight for 2022? I don’t disagree with your takes. But what do I do with them?  I am tired of feeling  helpless. Hopelessness is closing in.  I’m fighting the cognitive triad of depression here. As a middle-aged white woman, I’m really feeling rage, anger and sheer contempt for the white women who voted for Youngkin, TFG, etc. Being aware of what is going on is necessary but not sufficient. The constant drumbeat of how bad everything is but without being paired with possible solutions and actions often leads to hopelessness. Many of the attempts to find a positive side of things are an attempt to keep hope alive, not to delude or negate or deny the reality of the very dangerous times in which we are living.

  216. 216.

    Geminid

    @ProfDamatu: The odd year Virginia elections have been around for longer than I have been voting, and almost certainly were intended to insulate state races from national, and depress turnout. I suspect that when results are analysed they will show a strong turnout among Democrats. There are aot of Independent voters in Virginia, though. They were turned off by trump, but Youngkin’s strategy has been to flip enough of them back and he may have succeeded.

  217. 217.

    p.a.

    So Sinema & Manchin to every +5 or less Dem nationwide: “fuck you.”  And CRT, good gawd.

    And as Atrios says, this will be blamed on the progressives.

  220. 220.

    RaflW

    @guachi: The press will somehow claim that they have no role in spreading the CRT hysteria.

    And I don’t think any of the major outlets are reformable. And white grievance is still one of the most powerful forces at play here.

  223. 223.

    Eolirin

    @Cassandra: Biden’s approval ratings are down because of the media framing on Afghanistan and on the stalled BBB legislation, coupled with economic issues like rising gas prices and supply chain issues. They’re not down because his policy positions are unpopular.

  224. 224.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @TheflipPsyd: Work for good results in 2022, volunteer and/or donate.  If you have D reps call them and tell them to stand strong on passing the BIL and BBB together and them passing significant voting rights legislation.  Find distractions like hobbies or exercise or things that take your mind of bad things and rejuvenate your spirit.  Don’t give up or give in.  I hope these ideas help.

  225. 225.

    Suzanne

    @Eolirin: This troll is a troll, but stop with the nonsense about voters preferring Biden’s policy. That and $20 might buy you a cup of shitty coffee at Starbucks. Voters do not care about policy. You and your friends care, but that’s because you are not representative of most people.

  226. 226.

    Cassandra

    @CarolPW:

    I’m not saying all White Americans want Republican policies, I’m saying a solid majority of Americans do. The polls tell you that.

    The NBC poll underlying numbers are worse than Biden’s favorability…a majority of Americans say that they trust Republicans more on virtually every issue (foreign policy, security, education, economy,…). It would be great if it weren’t true, but it appears that it is.

  227. 227.

    me

    @Eolirin:

    If our survival as a democracy rests on holding the house and growing the senate next year and that isn’t likely to be possible, what do we do

    Nothing is the only answer I’m finding.  I’d leave the country if I could but I’m at the point where I have to tune out the news entirely, which I used to enjoy, because the country is totally fucked, there’s nothing I can do about it and the despair is quite destructive.

  228. 228.

    Eolirin

    @Peale: Because of two assholes in the senate (and 50 Republicans who’d rather let the country burn than give up power) yeah. It’s why people are getting frustrated with Biden; most Americans don’t seem to understand how our government actually works.

  229. 229.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Cassandra: ​
      I don’t see abject failure anywhere in that. Hell, he’s bottoming out around your boy’s best numbers. And done playing with the troll.

  230. 230.

    VFX Lurker

    @TheflipPsyd: So what do we do? What steps as individuals and as a collective  can we take to fight for 2022? I don’t disagree with your takes. But what do I do with them?  I am tired of feeling  helpless. Hopelessness is closing in.  I’m fighting the cognitive triad of depression here. As a middle-aged white woman, I’m really feeling rage, anger and sheer contempt for the white women who voted for Youngkin, TFG, etc. Being aware of what is going on is necessary but not sufficient. The constant drumbeat of how bad everything is but without being paired with possible solutions and actions often leads to hopelessness. Many of the attempts to find a positive side of things are an attempt to keep hope alive, not to delude or negate or deny the reality of the very dangerous times in which we are living.

    Fellow Gen X white woman here. As I view my RescueTime stats for last month, I see I could have spent more time writing Postcards to Voters and less time reading about politics.

    I adore this comments section, and I like reading marcushjohnson, eclecticbrotha and docroctex26 on Twitter. However, that does not translate into voter outreach.

    Vote, donate, and do what you can to Get Out the Vote. Writing Postcards to Voters helps me feel better. I’ll write more tonight.

  232. 232.

    Elizabelle

    A clue about Cassandra might be the name.

    And I don’t think she/he/it is right about the majority of Americans.  I hope not.

    But it fits tonight’s voters.  In Virginia.

  233. 233.

    RinaX

    @Adam L Silverman:

    As you said, we have a year to get it together. I’ve heard similar sentiments from other Black people. Essentially, it feels like a lot of dem reps – conservative, progressive, and it between – don’t understand that we are at war. That’s why I haven’t joined in on the Sinema/Manchin pile-on. As annoying as they are, they’re dems, and we need every one of them. The Republicans are much worse in every way.

    We don’t have the luxury of being choosy about our soldiers if they’re still willing to represent our party. White people are mad and they’re turning up at the polls. Countering that matters more than any of the congressional machinations going on.

  234. 234.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Cacti: ​

    Repukes create an imaginary problem (CRT), then spend months saturating the airwaves about how they’re the only ones who can protect everyone from it.

    OK, but what story were the Dems telling while that was happening?

    @Starfish: ​

    @guachi: It is nice that this is a site with a lot of diverse voices, and someone is here to cheerlead the Republicans.

    I think you’re confusing analysis with cheerleading.​

  236. 236.

    TheflipPsyd

    @Omnes Omnibus: Thanks. I do do most of them. Luckily I live in a state with 2 dem senators and a dem rep. I call Coons office (and Carper) regularly. I suspect both of them want to keep the filibuster and believe in all senate traditions. I just get frustrated that too often it seems that when commenters have attempted to look at how the glass might be half full, the response by some is that somehow the commenter is not seeing reality. I think that 99 percent of us are scared about the trajectory this country try is on and the future.

  238. 238.

    Eolirin

    @Suzanne: Hey, I didn’t make that assertion; I was told to listen to the polling data and told that dem policy positions were the problem. But that polling data says Biden’s policies are supported broadly.

    I was saying that’s clearly not the issue. I’m not saying those policy positions will win votes. I don’t think they will. But I don’t think they’re losing votes either, which is what I was responding to.

    The inability to pass BBB is losing votes, because the media is making it a story. Gas prices are losing votes, because people notice that. Etc. 

  239. 239.

    RaflW

    It’s pretty g-d damn amazing that the Dow Jones closed at a record high in the past couple of days, and Democrats couldn’t find their asses with both hands to crow about the f–ing Biden economy.

    Jesus leChrist. Mass dereliciton.

    (Yeah, I know the Dow isn’t the whole economy, and leaves plenty of people behind. But the utter inability to set a narrative is gobsmackingly incompetent.)

  240. 240.

    zhena gogolia

    @RaflW: Chris Murphy was crowing about it. Was he on CNN or the front page of the NYT?

    ETA: There wasn’t a word about it on the front page of my NYT this morning. I looked.

  241. 241.

    Eolirin

    @RaflW: It’s really hard to set a narrative when you don’t own the media.

    Especially when the people who do are actively against your doing so.

  242. 242.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @TheflipPsyd: Well, I am an incorrigible half full person.  Take a break for a while if you need it.  Come back when you are refreshed.  I don’t necessarily mean from the blog (but that too if you need it), but from politics in general.  It’s a long fight, and everyone is entitled to some rest when they need it.

    ETA:  Also, as a practical matter, stay out of the next thread.

  243. 243.

    sab

    Locally I am curious aboujt school boards. Early results imdicate the normal parents are voting for actual educators over anti-maskers here in Ohio.

  244. 244.

    Cassandra

    @Elizabelle:

    Well, I didn’t want to believe the polls either, but they now appear to be true.

    If anyone here actual has a pipeline to the DNC, they should tell them that treating CRT as a joke is a mistake. Flipping people’s views on who to trust with education is what won Youngkin the election. I think this article has proven prescient:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/10/24/republicans-are-testing-messages-reverse-their-suburban-slide-education-is-winner/

    Democrats need to reverse that. And they need to find an issue to go one the offensive on…healthcare would maybe be good. If they can deliver on prescription drugs that would be helpful.

    I’ll stop posting – my apologies to anyone that I antagonized.

  245. 245.

    RinaX

    @Cassandra:

    When the Hatian migration crisis made the news, a lot of my black relatives felt it was Bidens fault for being seen as soft. You are right, it’s not just whites who had no problem with certain Trump policies.

    I don’t know what to do.

  246. 246.

    Peale

    @Eolirin: it will be helpful if they pass something in the social legislation package. Not sure what, but it needs to be at least 3 of the things. 5 would be ideal. That’s about as much as people can remember anyway.

    There’s not much they can do against CRT attacks. There aren’t many 1990s dems left who could credibly have a “crack down on Toni Morrison” moment and survive re-election.

  251. 251.

    Eolirin

    @Peale: One thing that would help with CRT attacks is exposing the people funding them and making them pay a heavy price for continuing to do so. It’s not organic. It’d disappear if the money went away.

  252. 252.

    Feathers

    @Adam L Silverman: Thanks! I get so much pushback when I try to push for any realism in activist attitudes.

    My one sweet dream is that Biden is holding back doing something about student loans until after whatever compromise gets through Congress. He can do that on his own, and should get some credit for it.

    Also, Blacks are the Dems voting base, but they are only 12.4% of the population. I totally get why there is such an anti-white woman sentiment, and well, no lies there. But we can’t win with just Black votes. The anti white woman toxicity in activist spaces is enormous. And it is chilling. You are hearing white male leftist comedians pulling out their same old misogynist bullshit, but getting praise for it for saying “white” women are terrible. And white women are listening. Seeing polling showing a 16% drop in Dem support from white women. It’s not just the CRT, it’s all the “white women’s tears” and white female leftists going on about how much they hate white women. Well folks, white women who used to vote on our team heard you.

    As I said, I get it, but there are just lashings of misogyny involved as well, which the left is somehow not picking up on.

  254. 254.

    Chris

    @RinaX:

    The fact that the response is an automatic defensive crouch that blames Biden for upsetting people by not being a right-winger is… kind of the problem in a nutshell.  (You see this on literally everything, not just Haiti/immigration).  At a certain point, “well, I’m not saying this, I just think it’ll look bad” becomes indistinguishable from “I am in fact saying this.”

  256. 256.

    Chris

    @Feathers:

    Also, Blacks are the Dems voting base, but they are only 12.4% of the population. I totally get why there is such an anti-white woman sentiment, and well, no lies there. But we can’t win with just Black votes. The anti white woman toxicity in activist spaces is enormous. And it is chilling. You are hearing white male leftist comedians pulling out their same old misogynist bullshit, but getting praise for it for saying “white” women are terrible. And white women are listening. Seeing polling showing a 16% drop in Dem support from white women. It’s not just the CRT, it’s all the “white women’s tears” and white female leftists going on about how much they hate white women. Well folks, white women who used to vote on our team heard you.

    Apropos of this, I stopped using the phrase “Karen” a while back, originally because somebody on another blog was actually named Karen and pointed out that it’s not fun to hear your name used as a punch line all the time… but also because it became obvious a while ago that “Karen,” whatever it started out as, has effectively become just another sexist phrase that simply means “woman that offends me, mostly be existing.”

  257. 257.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Feathers: You know what though, the 35-40% of white men who vote D is a pretty large number too.  But the majority of us don’t.  Electorally we suck (as a group).  What Democratic white men get reminded is that if it isn’t about us then it isn’t about us.

  258. 258.

    Citizen Alan

    @me:  I hear you. Tomorrow morning at 9 AM, I have a zoom interview for a job in South Bend Indiana. And I am slightly repulsed at the idea of moving to any redstate. I will not move back to the South after spending the last 6 months in New York City.. I’d rather die.

  262. 262.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Chris: Cal didn’t go blue at one go, we had GOP governors for decades, then 2000 a Dem, he got recalled, then Arnold before the end of the CA GOP. “Generic Republican” is a popular beast until the voters find out it’s imaginary.

    I am also meh on this is because of Washington. Local elections are about local politics.

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