‘Vax’ is Oxford’s word of the year, as pandemic’s ‘Fauci ouchie’ and ‘inoculati’ enter the lexiconhttps://t.co/oD5vy0pKCT
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 2, 2021
JUST IN: Vaccine advisers to the CDC have voted unanimously to recommend giving Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine to children ages 5 to 11 https://t.co/rLoj5KEAJ0
— CNN (@CNN) November 2, 2021
Today, I endorsed ACIP’s recommendation that children 5-11 yrs old should be vaccinated against #COVID19 w/ Pfizer-BioNTech pediatric vaccine. This expands vaccine recommendations to over 28M kids in US & now allows providers to begin vaccinating them. https://t.co/krsXbvsS2p https://t.co/xzgJTvOLWI
— Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH (@CDCDirector) November 3, 2021
I very much appreciate and value that the ACIP deliberations are public and fully transparent, that each committee member publicly states her (or his) vote, & that the data, evidence & science behind their decisions are made explicit
This is a very powerful slide https://t.co/OHQjE4E66B
— Prof. Gavin Yamey MD MPH (@GYamey) November 2, 2021
The pandemic has claimed more American lives than the country sustained on battlefields during the first world war, second world war and Vietnam war, combined https://t.co/oChsPV017v
— The Economist (@TheEconomist) November 2, 2021
======
More provinces in China are fighting Covid than at any time since the deadly pathogen first emerged in Wuhan in 2019 https://t.co/2gqG2pDxpd
— Bloomberg (@business) November 3, 2021
Of course, we’re still talking (two- and three-digit!) numbers most countries would happily claim:
The highly-infectious delta variant is hurtling across China despite the increasingly aggressive measures that local officials have enacted in a bid to thwart it.
Local infections have been found in 19 of 31 provinces in the country. More: https://t.co/mh4xzEvGdG pic.twitter.com/3zj3ERykPM
— Bloomberg (@business) November 3, 2021
China's new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases spiked to a near three-month high and tighter curbs to contain the spread are expected in the capital Beijing ahead of next week’s Communist Party conclave https://t.co/mggrlMozgF pic.twitter.com/QCsqoGrJNc
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 3, 2021
Dr. Zhong Nanshan, the public face of China's Covid control, says that it is costly to maintain the zero-tolerance policy, but the cost would be even higher when China opens up. He concludes: "The policy will be maintained for a long time." https://t.co/QxcN4WYDDZ pic.twitter.com/80eNYEbZCk
— Yanzhong Huang (@YanzhongHuang) November 3, 2021
Hong Kong to launch COVID-19 booster campaign from next week https://t.co/7jrCX6LxcL pic.twitter.com/pOk5fmgTzv
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 3, 2021
Japan has now fully vaccinated 72.5% of the population with 77.6% on one shot.
190 million doses given in total.
Next update will be on Thursday, as tomorrow is a national holiday. https://t.co/HI2bGxD9DA pic.twitter.com/J5ZMke0QSZ
— Gearoid Reidy (@GearoidReidy) November 2, 2021
South Korea said it would ramp up COVID-19 testing at schools after a sharp rise of infections among children, weeks ahead of a plan to fully reopen schools nationwide https://t.co/gjWhtPX1cE pic.twitter.com/D6LkmZ7vEv
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 3, 2021
Iran's foreign minister tests positive for COVID-19 https://t.co/V9Nvh7v26a pic.twitter.com/7el1RHmO1s
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 2, 2021
UAE approves Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine for ages 5-11 https://t.co/xa9XCgdlZg pic.twitter.com/02fSSrSYiU
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 1, 2021
Idlib, Syria
"Ambulance workers transfer up to 20 bodies/day for burial & work round-the-clock shuttling patients to #COVID19 wards. But elsewhere, life continues as if nothing were amiss.
“If this continues for another month, we will face total collapse.”https://t.co/Vhg4LD4SWX— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) November 2, 2021
Glass half full… feels like Putin’s government may finally have decided that ‘tough it out, it’ll be gone by (next) winter’ is an inadequate response? Hard cheese for the thousands of dead Russians — not to mention the Russian citizens who are now being whipsawed between lockdowns and prohibitions — but still an improvement, in a very Russian way…
⚡ Russia on Wednesday reported a new pandemic record of 1,189 Covid-19 deaths over the last 24 hourshttps://t.co/OI9RSN0JRV
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) November 3, 2021
All 85 of Russia's regions will require digital passes showing proof of vaccination or recent recovery from coronavirus to enter public areas and events https://t.co/1FosobWd3L
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) November 2, 2021
Foreign tourists are canceling trips to Russia in droves over confusion surrounding digital coronavirus passes after current nationwide restrictions are lifted, the Russian Association of Tour Operators (ATOR) said https://t.co/hAgwtntbOw
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) November 3, 2021
#UPDATE The Netherlands is bringing back coronavirus measures including a requirement for face masks in many public spaces to combat a surge in cases, Prime Minister Mark Rutte said https://t.co/6E1TA3WTg0
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) November 2, 2021
Study of #COVID19 deaths in Scotland finds, "Within the population of Scotland aged 65–79 years, the death rate per 10,000 person-years was 64·8 for unvaccinated individuals & 4·2 for fully vaccinated individuals."
That's 4.2 vax'ed, versus 64.8 no-vax.https://t.co/vfflssnUOu— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) November 2, 2021
Covid-19: Sage scientist Sir Jeremy Farrar steps down from role https://t.co/xYdNamUEor
— BBC Health News (@bbchealth) November 2, 2021
“Throughout this crisis Sage has provided vital evidence, and independent, expert, transparent advice to support the UK response, often under huge pressure.”#COVID19 in UK https://t.co/IF9rq1CpjH
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) November 2, 2021
Christmas may be difficult as COVID not over, England's deputy medical officer says https://t.co/Tba5cuJqy8 pic.twitter.com/Ou6PDrH5qq
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 3, 2021
Brazil's 7-day Covid death toll is at lowest since April 2020. Officials credit vaccination. Brazil has fully vaccinated >1/2 its population. The vaxxed share is even higher in large cities where vax rates are ~100% of adults, who've had at least 1 shot https://t.co/qgjotfZTWe pic.twitter.com/z0fcElfOAd
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) November 2, 2021
======
CDC finds immunity from vaccines is more consistent than from infection, but both last at least six months https://t.co/dCrfm4aUu7
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 2, 2021
Myocarditis linked to the Covid-19 vaccines is far less frequent and severe compared with that observed in patients with Covid, and it does not seem to cause lasting harm, one doctor said. https://t.co/NxbFO83jwS
— NYT Health (@NYTHealth) November 2, 2021
Covid can alter the immune system. The virus reduces the number & competence of certain immune cells & causes the immune system to overreact w/ an aberrant inflammatory response, usually in moderate-severe disease, which occurs in 3–10% of the infected https://t.co/aXDnoqJuqh
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) November 2, 2021
The extraordinary benefit of vaccination in pregnancyhttps://t.co/kyumbE2Rgi
NNV (number needed to vaccinate) is 10 to prevent a Covid infection. "The balance of risk favors COVID-19 vaccination… particularly to avoid severe maternal infection or preterm or caesarean birth." pic.twitter.com/lPBeuTgZeT— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) November 2, 2021
Do patients hold the answer to the mystery of #LongCovid? Listening to patients is paramount to understanding this novel condition that never existed until the pandemic circumnavigated the globe https://t.co/EqVjg35eIK pic.twitter.com/1KOsUsNWu0
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) November 2, 2021
1st reported US transmission of Covid from a pet owner to 2 pets. In the Arizona case study, the pet owner, a cat & dog were infected w/ the identical strain of coronavirus: B.1.575, an early version of SARSCoV2. Details in the journal One Health https://t.co/Tc7teI7mR6 pic.twitter.com/ywahGSOqKH
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) November 3, 2021
======
Inside the black market for fake vaccination cards https://t.co/mhDCPlVYSD
— Salon (@Salon) November 2, 2021
Staten Island’s proudly pro-trash demographic:
Anti-vaccers on Staten Island block a sanitation truck tonight that is trying to leave the station to pick up trash. pic.twitter.com/i4mMpVILbQ
— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) November 2, 2021
I didn’t want to post their interviews. What they want is to shut down all services in the city to protest the mandates. Apparently, the crew in this truck was brought in from another neighborhood to replace a crew refusing to work over the vaccine, and they are upset.
— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) November 2, 2021
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
The Monroe County website didn’t have case figures yesterday, probably because it was Election Day.
NYSDOH says 165 new cases yesterday. We don’t appear to have a handle on COVID yet around here. It also looks like Republicans did really well in yesterday’s local elections. Maybe the two things are related…maybe they aren’t.
debbie
That truck should have run over that Karen. I’m done caring for people.
New Deal democrat
@NeenerNeener: yes, most States didn’t report yesterday, so today’s data is useless.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 5,291 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, tfor a cumulative reported total of 2,486,630 cases. It also reports 70 deaths as of midnight, for an adjusted cumulative total of 29,045 deaths – 1.17% of the cumulative reported total, 1.20% of resolved cases.
Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.95.
534 confirmed cases are in ICU, 214 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 4,947 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,390,379 patients recovered – 96.1% of the cumulative reported total.
Seven new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 5,788 clusters. 390 clusters are currently active; 5,398 clusters are now inactive.
5,284 new cases today are local infections. Seven new cases today are imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 122,142 doses of vaccine on 2nd November: 9,211 first doses, 56,438 second doses, and 56,493 booster doses. As of midnight yesterday, the cumulative total is 50,306,343 doses administered: 25,504,743 first doses, 24,564,990 second doses, and 407,607 booster doses. 78.1% of the population have received their first dose, while 75.2% are now fully vaccinated.
YY_Sima Qian
On 11/2 China reported 93 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 11 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 6 new domestic confirmed cases. 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 165 active domestic confirmed cases in the region.
At Xi’an in Shaanxi Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 12 active domestic confirmed cases in the city.
Ningxia “Autonomous” Region reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 36 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region.
Gansu Province reported 14 new domestic confirmed cases (11 mild & 3 moderate). There currently are 124 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.
Hebei Province reported 14 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 34 active confirmed cases in the province.
Hunan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 4 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Zunyi in Guizhou Province did not reported any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed (1 mild, 4 moderate, 2 serious & 4 critical) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 2 residential compounds are currently at Medium Risk.
Beijing Municipality reported 9 new domestic confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic, 4 mild & 5 moderate), 3 are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine since 10/25 & 5 are members of a family cluster (1 had been traced as an F2 close contact & was placed under centralized from 10/22-27, but tested positive on 11/1 during follow up checks, the other members off family were placed under centralized quarantine on the same day). There currently are 40 active domestic confirmed cases in the city. 1 community remains at High Risk. 1 community has been elevated to Medium Risk. 2 communities are currently at Medium Risk.
Rizhao in Shandong Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 13 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 residential compound is currently at Medium Risk.
Sichuan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Chongqing Municipality reported 4 new domestic confirmed (2 mild & 2 moderate) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all are close contacts of the domestic confirmed case reported by Chengdu in Sichuan, 1 of whom 1st tested positive after visiting a fever clinic on 11/1. It has been ~ 1 week since the the Chengdu case had left Chongqing, so expect low double digit cases in the city.
(On 11/3, Changzhou in Jiangsu Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases, all close contacts of positive cases at Chongqing, will be reported in tomorrow’s data dump.)
Qinghai Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.
At Tianmen in Hubei Province there currently are 2 domestic confirmed cases (1 mild & 1 moderate) in the city.
Heilongjiang Province reported 35 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 144 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Jiangxi Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 7 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed & 9 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city.
Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases (both at Ruili, both via mass screening). 2 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 7 active domestic confirmed & 28 active domestic asymptomatic cases at the prefecture.
At Henan Province there currently are 5 active domestic confirmed cases remaining, all at Shangqiu. (Zhengzhou reported 3 new domestic positive cases, found via regular surveillance screening, will be reported in tomorrow’s data dump.)
Imported Cases
On 11/2, China reported 16 new imported confirmed cases (3 previously asymptomatic), 8 imported asymptomatic cases, 1 imported suspect case:
Overall in China, 21 confirmed cases recovered (18 imported), 23 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (21 imported) & 4 were reclassified as confirmed cases (3 imported), & 2,505 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 1000 active confirmed cases in the country (377 imported), 37 in serious condition (2 imported), 384 active asymptomatic cases (335 imported), 5 suspect cases (all imported). 39,716 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 11/2, 2,285.954M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 6.512M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 11/3 Hong Kong reported 3 new positive cases, all imported (from the US & the UK, all had been fully vaccinated).
Fair Economist
I suspect what happened in Russia is that they realized, from looking at the real infection data they don’t release, that people keep dying in substantial numbers on repeat infection. A few hundred thousand dead Russians won’t bother Putin, but a few hundred thousand *every year* will be a problem. So he is forced to put the power of the State behind vaccination and public health measures.
lowtechcyclist
A big hip-hip-HOORAY! for the CDC authorizing the Pfizer vax for 5-11 year olds. I know a number of parents of young children who comment here have been waiting for this day for a long time now. I remember what it felt like when they authorized the vax for 12-15 year olds, which meant my son could be vaccinated, so I’ve got a pretty good idea of what they are feeling right now.
rikyrah
@Fair Economist:
After being behind a huge misinformation campaign against vaccines ??
rikyrah
@lowtechcyclist:
Relief.
They see light at the end of the tunnel
Fair Economist
@YY_Sima Qian: Ouch, 93 new cases? I know it’s tiny compared to most places but it keeps going in the wrong direction.
I wonder if a Zero COVID approach is even possible between Delta and vaccination. Delta is so contagious, yet vaccinated people are so often minimally symptomatic; add in the high false negative rate of the tests and it gets really hard to stop transmission because you just can’t identify enough of the infected.
Is China using any mRNA vaccines yet?
John S.
Let’s play Media Meme of the Day Mad Libs!
The stunning defeat in Virginia is proof that [the push for vaccinations] is harmful to the Democrats, and they should reconsider the course of action they are taking.
Wow, it works for EVERYTHING!
Geo Wilcox
White tailed deer in the USA are susceptible to Covid:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.31.466677v1
Baud
@Geo Wilcox:
We finally get revenge for deer ticks.
p.a.
@rikyrah:
Yep, after x^y deaths, Putin actually shows more concern than the Republican party and conservative hate-media.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
Greece: new record of the undesirable type, 6700 new cases reported yesterday, on top of the previous day’s 5581. Worldometer says active cases are at 46,804, and 60 COVID-related deaths reported yesterday.
As of this coming Saturday, anyone wishing to enter any indoor public area except for a supermarket, food shop, pharmacy, or place of worship will have to show a negative COVID test result (or proof of vaccination). (Source: Kathimerini)
This plague isn’t done with us yet.
zhena gogolia
@rikyrah: Right. It’s biting him in the ass. Even well-educated people think there’s a “liquid chip” that’s going to allow someone to control their actions remotely.
Baud
@Bruce K in ATH-GR:
Will the US CDC card work as proof?
p.a.
I had a ct scan yesterday and they didn’t ask my vax status at all, never mind looking at my card?
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@Baud: The CDC card has worked for me so far, and it worked for my girlfriend when she visited me this past summer. The one time it got heightened scrutiny, I was simply asked to provide a form of identification, which sufficed. (I also asked, as a favor, if they could scan the New York Excelsior Pass I had on my phone, to see if it would be recognized. It wasn’t.)
CDC card plus passport or driving license should be good enough for visitors from the US. Though just for safety’s sake, you might want to swing by a Staples or other copy shop to see if you can get a laminated copy of the CDC card.
Baud
@Bruce K in ATH-GR:
Thanks!
Sloane Ranger
Tuesday in the UK we had 33,865 new cases. The rolling 7-day average is down by 10.4%. new cases by nation,
England – 28,531 (down 3550)
Northern Ireland – 1114 (up 166)
Scotland – 2010 (down 55)
Wales – 2210 (down 2773, but Monday’s figures would have included some catch up from the weekend when offices were generally closed).
Deaths – There were 293 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday. The rolling 7-day average is up by 15.2%. 255 deaths were in England, 2 in Northern ireland, 26 in Scotland and 10 in Wales.
Testing – 905,663 tests were conducted on Monday, 1 November. The rolling 7-day average for tests conducted was down by 3.8% on that date. The PCR testing capacity reported by labs on that date was 861,703.
Hospitalisations – There were 9528 people in hospital and 1030 on ventilators on Monday, 1st November. The rolling 7-day average for hospital admissions, on 29 October was up by 2.5%.
Vaccinations – As of Monday, 50,025,020 people had had 1 shot of a vaccine, 45,731,565 had had 2, and 8,356,172 had had a 3rd shot/booster. In percentage terms this means that 87% of all UK residents aged 12+ had had 1 shot, 79.5% had had 2 and 14.5% have had a 3rd shot/booster.
Suzanne
Spawn the Younger has her appointment booked for vaccine #1 for Monday! WOOT WOOT!!!
Soprano2
I think it’s not; I actually think “zero Covid” was never possible. I’m not sure it would have worked even with the original Covid. It seems like even when they put relatively severe measures in place for two or three months as soon as they start taking them off the infection rate goes up. We cannot live forever with most people having to stay at home and wearing face masks everywhere. The solution to this is vaccination, period. It seems like that’s the only thing that will get the transmission numbers down in a permanent way. Pandemic exhaustion with all these measures is a real thing. Only a small minority of people want “forever masks”. I say if they want to wear face masks in public forever, be my guest, but don’t require me to do that forever, because I won’t, and neither will most people.
Here in Springfield the numbers are slowly getting better. The 7-day case average is down to 35, and there are 46 people in the hospital with Covid; these are both in the “yellow” area. The last time we were in the “yellow” or “green” area here was April and May 2021. Deaths are way down, from a high of 75 in July to 10 in October. Unfortunately, I’ve heard here that we may add one more to that total; one of the supervisors at the Street Dept. is on a ventilator, and I heard today that he’s in an induced coma. Of course he didn’t get vaccinated! There appear to be several people out at Streets due to having Covid. It makes me so crazy, because none of this should be happening! I’ve been encouraged in my department; I’m seeing about 5 or 6 people wearing face masks, which means they aren’t vaccinated. The rate of vaccination in this building is higher than I thought it would be
I’m so glad the younger kids can get vaccinated now. That’s the key to getting schools back on a more normal footing, and helping women who want to work but just cannot right now get back in the job market. I cannot imagine the anxiety parents of under-12 kids have been feeling all this time.
bjacques
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: me and the missus just got back from Greece (back in Amsterdam). In Athens, Nafplio and Spetses, all places but one required COVID certificates on our phones. Only one restaurant wanted ID also. A friend warned us a hard copy of the cert would be demanded instead, but it never happened.
Amir Khalid
The Ministry of Health here has released the results of its Ivermectin study. (The media statement is in Malay, so no link.) You will all be shocked to learn that it is of no measurable benefit to seriously ill Covid-19 patients.
Citizen_X
Build the wall—around Staten Island.
Fair Economist
@Soprano2: *Zero* COVID permits dropping mask and stay home requirements. AU, NZ, and China did succeed with it prior to Delta.
barbequebob
@Citizen_X: Tow it out to sea and moor it at the spot where NYC used to dump its garbage years ago
J R in WV
@Suzanne:
Congratulations! I know you have been worried about that for quite a while now, so glad you can see the light now!
LivinginExile
Mrs E and I got our boosters yesterday, moderna. I feel fine this morning, though shoulder is slightly sore. Next week the flu shot.
The Moar You Know
Surge throughout entire SF Bay Area; all counties back in orange or red tiers this morning.
Guess that winter wave is really coming.
Suzanne
@J R in WV: I will really see the light when the littles can get the shot.
GregMulka
Youngest spawn jab 1 scheduled on Sunday. Jab 2 the 28th. The house will be officially fully vaccinated before Christmas.
There has been so much bullshit over the past forever but definitely in the past 5 years and the past 2 years particularly but we’ve gone from having a novel virus outbreak to the ability to vaccinate 90% of the world population in 2 years. A few more months it will 100%. That’s not quite the crew of the Enterprise developing the vaccine enroute to the planet with the outbreak but it’s damn close.
There are still too many problems to solve and we need to stop lighting our atmosphere on fire but sweet FSM I have to say, as I type this on my interactive edition of The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, I like living in the future.
YY_Sima Qian
@Fair Economist:
@Soprano2:
China’s strategy is so the so called “dynamic zero”, meaning clusters & outbreaks seeded by foreign introduction will be eliminated as quickly as possible, to prevent COVID-19 from ever re-establishing a foot hold in the country. There is no expectation that outbreaks can be completely prevented, not with so much virus in the larger world, only minimized as much as possible.
As for eliminating Delta outbreaks, I am pretty confident. China has already eliminated sizable Delta outbreaks (case counts in the mid-triple digits) at Pearl River Delta region in May & southern Fujian Province in Sept., as well as a large & geographically wide-spanning outbreak (case count > 1K, spread across over a dozen provinces) outbreak in Jul. – Aug. (starting from a breach at Nanjing Airport). Despite the continuing trick of domestic positive cases at Dehong in Yunnan over the past months, not a single positive case has been exported to the rest of the country.
Given the very low incident rate in China, when case counts are entirely driven by clusters as they form & are detected, before they are contained & eliminated, it is much more useful to look at granular data at municipal levels. Focusing on the aggregate numbers, or maps w/ regions color coded at the provincial level, is not that useful, even misleading. That is why I compile & post the details here. Ejina Banner in Inner Mongolia, where a breach likely occurred at the border crossing w/ Mongolia & is the epicenter of the current outbreak, is has peaked & is well on the way to elimination. Clusters at most other jurisdictions are contained, as new positive cases are being found from persons under quarantine for days or weeks, rather than from the community by mass screening. The SOP around the country is 1 round of mass screening every 2 – 3 days, which translates to continuous screening for the districts & cities with sizable clusters. 3 rounds are required if cases were found in the community, & 6 round minimum if there is evidence of a period of sustained community spread.
The sites where outbreaks cannot yet be declared as contained are Changing in Beijing, Shijiazhuang+Xinji in Hebei, Tianshui in Gansu, Shangrao in Jiangxi, & the just uncovered transmission chain that span Chengdu in Sichuan, Chongqing & Changzhou in Jiangsu. When Heihe in Heilongjiang went into lock down over a single case found at fever clinic, overseas press framed it as typical (authoritarian) overreaction by local authorities. It turns out to have not been a day too soon. Within a few days the case count quickly increased to triple digits, though most of them have come from people that were immediately placed under quarantine (home or centralized) as soon as the 1st small cluster of 4 cases were discovered.
As for whether this is sustainable, I think it can for the medium term (say, over the next year or so). I don’t think most people appreciate how large China is. A province may be colored yellow for having cases, but often there are only a few small clusters in 1 or 2 cities in those provinces (each province having several dozens of municipal level admin. divisions), only a few residential compounds in each of the cities are under lock down & only a few zones in each of the cities under movement restrictions. Remote instruction for schools tend to be enforced more widely, however. For example, the current outbreak in Beijing is almost entirely in the suburban Changing District in the NE of the city. Members of my extended family (my father’s side are mostly living in Beijing) on NW part of the city’s urban area, as well as my colleagues working in the office in SE part of the city’s urban core, are under no movement restrictions. My Beijing colleague are still traveling across the country, though they have to produce a negative RT-PCR test within 48 hrs of departure. During the outbreak in Jul. – Aug., when Nanjing in Jiangsu recorded > 200 positive cases, vast majority of whom were in the suburban Jiangning District to the S of the city. Members of my extended family (my mother’s side all live in the city) in the urban districts were not in lock down. Residential compounds went into restricted access management (meaning only residents are allowed in or out), the retirees were strongly cautioned from venturing out, & all of the schools went to remote learning. However, people working regular jobs still went to work.
The vast majority of jurisdictions in China still only has seen a single lock down (back during the 1st wave). Tibet was not locked down even during the 1st wave. The cities seeing movement restriction w/ each new outbreak are only experiencing their 2nd or 3rd such restrictions. Each time, people know the restrictions will likely be lifted in 4 – 6 weeks, & they can anticipate that all restrictions will be lifted if an area registers 0 new positive cases in the community for 14 day. Xinjiang (twice the size of Texas & w/ large distances between settlements) lock down the entire region because of outbreaks at Ürumqi or Kashgar, or Wangkui County keeping residents locked despite a month of 0 new cases, are very much the exception.
Pandemic fatigue is not remotely an issue, yet. Ruili in Yunnan experiencing months of severe restrictions due to the continuing trickle of cases, is a singular outlier. There, a level of fatigue is real.
I am concerned about what winter might bring. China has been able to eliminate Delta outbreaks in the spring, summer & fall. Winter is a different beast in the north of the country. Of course, China can always fall back to Wuhan style lock down if an outbreak appears to be stubbornly active in an area, though the cost will be high. Even a R0 = 10 variant could be eliminated w/ a Wuhan style lock down.
The Pale Scot
This is the direction we need to go
Unvaccinated? Don’t Count on Leaving Your Family Death Benefits
No health insurance
No life insurance
No sick pay
YY_Sima Qian
@Fair Economist: China still has not approved the BioNTech mRNA vaccine, even though Fosum Pharmaceuticals in Shanghai was an early investor (even before Pfizer), has priority access to 100 M doses for the Greater China market (millions of which are being shipped to Taiwan, under deals w/ Foxconn & TSMC), & is constructing a large manufacturing plan w/ 1B doses / yr capacity in a joint venture w/ BioNTech. The decision has to be political. Perhaps the government is concerned that people will wait for the mRNA vaccine for booster shot, rather than taking what is immediately available.
A domestic mRNA vaccine (Abogen-Walvax) is in Phase III trial, being run in Mexico & Indonesia, results expected by end of year.
Brantl
@The Pale Scot: THAT will hit them where they die.