Or maybe not bigfoot M4, though he was drafting a post when I started typing this. Or appeared to be. The ways of the WordPress Dashboard are arcane…
And I did!
Everyone, please don’t freak Cole out!
Trust me, if I ever decide to stop writing here, whether because of an assignment I’ve taken where I just can’t do it or whatever, I will first discuss it with Cole and then I will do a post explaining why.
In 48 tediously dense paragraphs.
All on the front page with no read more option.
Because you all deserve it!
But I appreciate everyone asking after me.
To be honest I was just taking a bit of a break from the front page. With everything going on we’re all a bit testy and rather than writing something I think is important to post and then everyone getting riled up and then the comments turning into people, including me, sniping at each other, I figured I’d just comment a bit and come back to things next week. Whether you believe it or not, I’m not trying to piss everyone off.
Especially as events were fast moving and because they were fast moving I wanted a bit of time to reevaluate my comments about the follow on effects of the election results on Tuesday. I’m also trying to think my way through something I think is a major systemic problem in American politics, partially related to the off year elections and definitely related to the 2022 midterms and 2024 presidential/national elections, but it isn’t fully cooked yet. So I’m holding off on that for a few more days, give or take, as I think it through.
Now, I did see that MrForkBeard asked about my take on the regular order infrastructure bill and the reconciliation bill. I think the passage of the regular order bill is, in general, a good thing. Anytime you can pass major legislation that is going to improve the lives of the citizenry that is a great thing. I saw one person, it might have been Ron Klain, remark that presidential candidates have been promising to pass a bill to fix and upgrade American infrastructure for 50 years, that it isn’t easy, but that it has now been done. And that is both a good thing and a sad reflection on American politics.
I think everyone’s concerns are that by passing the regular order bill and sending it to President Biden, that the House, especially the House leadership and the House Progressive Caucus, have taken a massive leap of faith. This is true to an extent. However, both Speaker Pelosi and Congresswoman Jayapal are good at what they do. If they’ve decided that the Senate Democratic leadership’s and President Biden’s and his teams’ assurances that the reconciliation bill will pass the Senate no later than 15 November, then we who are not privy to these discussions have to recognize that they’re not fools and just watch and wait.
It is important to remember that all of the leverage has not been removed. President Biden has 10 working days to sign the regular order bill into law, veto it, or pocket veto it. 15 November is within those ten working days. I would expect that it has been made very, very, very clear to the 9 or 10 House Democratic moderates and to Senators Manchin and Sinema that if they screw the President, their Democratic colleagues in both chambers, and Americans over by not doing what they’ve repeatedly indicated they will do on the reconciliation bill that there will be consequences. Up to and including a veto threat.
I think the reason the decision was made to go ahead and move the regular order bill on Friday was to provide further impetus for changing the narrative. The most recent polling from a reputed pollster has the President back to even on his favorable/unfavorable rating at 48/48, the employment numbers for October and the upwards revisions for August and September were very positive, and the Dow went over 36,000. So passing the regular order bill provides an opportunity to reframe the discussion, regain the advantage, and go on the offensive in terms of messaging. Most of you know I watch a lot of rugby union. To me, this is similar to the best teams kicking penalty goals (3 points, similar to a field goal in American football) to build momentum on the scoreboard until they are able to score tries (5 points for touching the ball down in the in goal area with a two point kicked conversion for a possible seven points – the origin of the touchdown in American football). Passing the regular order bill is the Democrats putting more points on the board because they were in range to do so.
The political reporters still don’t seem to have gotten that memo, but they can only avoid reality in favor of their preconceived notions, the never ending horse race, the view from nowhere, and both sides for so long before it bites them on the butt.
That said, the messaging here is going to be key. The Democrats and the groups and organizations that support them have got to hammer all the GOP members of the House and Senate who voted against the regular order reconstruction bill, but are preparing to go home and take credit for getting funding anyway. Especially the dozens of House members who have issues very similar talking points today that all state that they love infrastructure, but they had to vote against the bill because it is communist and because they don’t want the reconciliation bill to pass at some later date. This is not logically coherent at all, but it is par for the course.
I think that’s enough for now. I’ve got the Sale Sharks and North Hampton Saints on pause and need to get it restarted so I can get through the rest of the English Premiership games and move on to watching the Autumn Nations international games.
And just because I like this version/cover, here’s a wee bit of music for you all.
Open thread.
Major Major Major Major
Ha, I was also laying low on account of my and everybody else’s irritability. Sounds like you and I are on the same page about this vote.
ETA that said, a Read More would make it so people could see both our posts!
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: I think that a lot of the news coverage, especially the political news coverage has been overheated and just whacked. But what else is new? However, I think there are some real concerns. Specifically, the swing among white women in VA. If that’s not a localized to VA phenomenon, we’ve got a HUGE problem in 2022 and 2024. The other major issue is the one I’m still trying to think through.
Jerzy Russian
No offense to Mr. Silverman, but I liked the previous post better because it had a kitty.
Gin & Tonic
Didja see the one about the FSB guy in Berlin who fell out of a window?
Gin & Tonic
@Jerzy Russian: Silverman allegedly has dog(s) but never shares pictures with us.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I did. Given who his father is in the FSB chain of command, someone really wanted to send a message. Especially as that building he was thrown out of is only three stories tall from the look of the pictures. So it was really impressive that they were able to kill him on the first push.
I live in a one story house. Just to be safe I’m having all the windows removed and the spaces bricked over. Just in case…
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Operational security must be maintained at all times.
Urza
I don’t think anyone is permanently pissed off at front pagers. I think its just the general irritability of the times politically. As well as generally for even non-political junkies. Its a weird time for so many things and people want it all to change and get better after so long. From my spot in the middle of the supply chain and other reading I don’t see much better till 2023, but I hope to be wrong. Knowing this, I’ve sort of settled in for the long haul and let it blow past, taking things one day at a time. And I literally get what amounts to world changing work news once or twice a week, none of it good, letting me see problems incoming to nearly the end of the decade now. If I can do it, others can try.
Major Major Major Major
@Adam L Silverman: I’m waiting for the nerds to acquire and analyze the best data (eg I’m half ignoring exit polls) but I believe I saw there was further pro-GOP movement from Latinos, which would (continue to) be troubling.
Jerzy Russian
@Gin & Tonic: Did he jump of his own free will or did he have help?
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Well, he could have been dead before his lesson on gravity.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: That was a weird set of posts about that. It isn’t really clear who the guy is who was making those assertions and the data he’s using is problematic. Not because the data itself is bad, but because you really can’t do what he did with it. He was really comparing two different types of data.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: The sink, the bathtub, every door between his office and the window, were all very violently aggressive that day.
Fair Economist
I know he said he would, but I can’t imagine Biden vetoing this bill now. With the Republican lean of the media, they’d keep talking about “Biden vetoed infrastructure!” all the way up to the 2024 election, even if BBB eventually made it through with every last one of the BIF provisions included.
@Major Major Major Major: I’ve seen chitchat about aggressive Spanish language disinfo on radio and social media. Of course, to some extent, when the Republicans do better at turnout, all groups will shift against us. I remember that happening in the 2014 election.
Gin & Tonic
@Jerzy Russian: As Adam said, this was a statement.
Major Major Major Major
@Adam L Silverman: Good to know. Like I said, still waiting for the dust to settle.
Adam L Silverman
@Fair Economist: I don’t think he’ll veto it, but the threat exists and because it exists it is leverage.
Major Major Major Major
@Fair Economist: Latinos are perfectly capable of deciding to vote for Republicans without being awash in Spanish-language disinformation.
MisterForkbeard
Glad to hear you’re still around, as you’re one of my favorite front pagers. <wave> And thanks for your views on the BIF and BBB, and I’m relieved to say it mostly mirrors my own thoughts.
However, I feel like this post really needed another 12 paragraphs and at least half of them have to be all in caps. We expect only the best from you, sir.
Jerzy Russian
@Adam L Silverman:
You could give your dogs code names, like the Secret Service does with the high ranking officials under their protection. That way they can’t be traced back to you.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: I do think what we saw in 2020 with Hispanic and Latino voting is what we have to be worried about. Which is these communities are incredibly diverse and the Democrats don’t seem to be able to tailor their messaging to each bit of that diversity by where the communities are in the US.
Additionally, the penetration of WhatsApp and other social media within American Hispanic and Latino communities, with the most notorious example being in Miami, to spread misinformation, disinformation, agitprop, and to promote racism, anti-Semitism, and homophobia/anti-LGBTQ messaging needs to be taken VERY seriously. And a campaign to disrupt it and counter it needs to be developed immediately. And that campaign needs to be tailored to account for the diversity within the communities that have been targeted.
Adam L Silverman
@MisterForkbeard: Thanks for the kind words. And you’re welcome.
MisterForkbeard
@Jerzy Russian: “I took ShoeNibbler and RocketPooper out on a walk today…”
Yeah, I think it works.
Adam L Silverman
@Jerzy Russian: What makes you believe I haven’t.
Adam L Silverman
@MisterForkbeard: They each have about a 1/2 dozen nicknames or so.
Fair Economist
@Adam L Silverman: Sure, but it’s extremely weak leverage, because Manchin and Sinema know it too. If Biden had wanted leverage, the way to do it would be to accede to the progressives’ last demand and let the BIF languish in the House until the BBB is at least further along. This path only makes sense if there’s no more need for leverage – either Manchema have believably agreed to a BBB and it’s just details, or Sinema has told Biden she’s going to curtsey any BBB so there’s no point and the BIF is all Biden will get.
Adam L Silverman
@Fair Economist: We won’t know, unfortunately, until we know. And by then it’ll be too late.
Major Major Major Major
@Adam L Silverman: we’re also slipping with Asian Americans, particularly the Vietnamese, in what feels like a broadly similar phenomenon.
Adam L Silverman
@Urza: Americans, as a society, still haven’t completely worked all of the mental-emotional effects from 9-11 out of our systems. We’ve now added to that seven years of Trump – from the start of his campaign through his administration to his refusal to concede and go away – and the pandemic. Not to make light of a serious condition, but America, as a society, is suffering from a societal/collective equivalent to post traumatic stress.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: Would not surprise me. What’s interesting is that the members of these visible minority groups can look at the majority of Republicans and think they can actually make common cause with them. The level of self delusion there is pretty stunning.
Fair Economist
@Adam L Silverman: We have a problem in that we don’t have a good money source for counterdisinfo campaigns. If an official campaign does it and anything got out, it would be an endless “scandal” in the media. Look at how the Lincoln Project’s tiki stunt got treated – had Republicans done something like that it would be “cute”. And it’s hard to raise netroots money for that kind of campaign, especially since it needs to be prolonged because a large part of it is research to figure out what *could* counter the disinfo. The Republican have lots of billionaires happy to use their money for evil, long-term purposes.
Adam L Silverman
@Fair Economist: The Democrats have billionaires too. I just don’t see them as having the interest in doing this. Neither the Democratic Party, the groups and organizations that are aligned with and support the party, nor the billionaires that fund their campaigns or efforts.
The tiki torch stunt was just stupid. I can’t imagine who greenlit that, but that person should be yelled at repeatedly for several weeks.
randy khan
One minor amendment on process – the 10 business days don’t start until the enrolled bill actually gets sent to the President. I’ve seen reports it’s been sent to Biden, but Congress.gov doesn’t appear to have been updated yet, so it’s not clear. So they can extend that 10 business days if they want.
My broad take on the situation on BBB is that it pretty much depends entirely on Manchin and Sinema. The House Dems would be idiots to vote against a bill that Manchin & Sinema supported (and they’d be giving up the reinstatement of the state and local tax deduction that they really, really want (which isn’t great policy, but may be good politics and looks like even better politics after last Tuesday).
Major Major Major Major
@Adam L Silverman: it’s the “hack gap” again.
divF
@Adam L Silverman: So, like members of the British royal family.
Major Major Major Major
@randy khan: the SALT thing is pathetic, it’s the most expensive thing in the bill.
VOR
@Adam L Silverman: John Oliver did a show recently about disinformation in non-English communications. If there is push-back on the puke funnel, it tends to be in English so the push-back doesn’t make it to communities who get significant amounts of non-English messaging.
Also I recall reading a piece prior to the election, I think at TPM, about how there were many groups of Latino/Hispanic ancestry who lean Republican. The Cubans in Florida are an obvious example, but the article also cited people whose families have lived in Texas since long before it was a state. According to the article, they feel little commonality with more recent Mexican immigrants and even less with immigrants from countries like Honduras or Guatemala.
randy khan
@Major Major Major Major:
FWIW, and I haven’t really taken a deep dive into the data, but I’m increasingly of the view that what we saw on Tuesday was that Dem turnout backed off a bit from 2020 but the Republicans turned out at the Presidential level, particularly in Virginia. McAuliffe actually beat Northam’s vote totals, for instance, and Northam won by 8 points after record turnout for a Virginia gubernatorial election. I find that pretty concerning, for what seem like obvious reasons.
Ken
I think in this case (and this forum) it’s OK to use the scare quotes: who “fell” out of a window. Maybe even: who “fell” out of a “window”, if you think maybe he went off the roof, or was dropped out of a helicopter.
Adam L Silverman
@divF: My dogs have smaller more normal shaped ears.
randy khan
@Major Major Major Major:
Speaking as someone who probably would benefit from it, I think it’s pretty lousy public policy, but in political terms the change in the 2017 tax bills was a pretty specific poke at some Democratic constituencies and states, and the fix (which at least has a ceiling on it) likely will be well received in those constituencies.
Adam L Silverman
@VOR: The Cuban American, Nicaraguan American, and Venezuelan American communities in Miami were all targeted in 2020.
The article on Texas was from Texas Monthly’s October issue:
https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/democrats-losing-texas-latinos-trump/
VOR
@randy khan: Republicans did a good job with turnout by scaring their base about CRT and other culture-war issues. IMHO, it seems like Trump activated people who didn’t vote previously, for whatever reason. He may have actually grown the Republican voting base.
Major Major Major Major
@randy khan: it can take a long time to get the good data… in the meanwhile we should play to our strengths and stop making obvious self-owns, easier said than done for us of course.
ETA @randy khan: Or we could make the child tax credit last twice as long, or expand Medicare… I assume it was added to buy some votes from more conservative Dems who represent wealthier areas. There are certainly worse tax cuts but it’s very expensive and essentially only benefits homeowners.
phdesmond
@Major Major Major Major:
reducing the current SALT penalty for itemizers is important to me, a tax preparer, and a number of my blue state taxpayers who itemize. they make under $400,000 a year.
John Revolta
@Adam L Silverman: AOC said on Twitter a couple days ago that disinformation on Spanish-language social media is many many times worse than on English and that this could very well be a big part of the problem.
Chetan Murthy
@VOR:
Turned out, Lee Atwater wasn’t right anymore: you can say “ni-r, ni-r, ni-r” and win elections. Sigh.
Major Major Major Major
@phdesmond:
I’m sure it is, and I’m saying that that money could go to people who make even less, but it’s not.
Ken
@divF: With royals they’re called “titles”, not “nicknames”. Although it’s sometimes hard to tell the difference when reading Shakespeare’s historical plays.
Adam L Silverman
@John Revolta: She is correct.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Major Major Major Major: this tweety from Grace Meng caught my eye, but she doesn’t really go into any details
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to go back to watching the rugby. I’ll catch everyone on the flip.
Soprano2
@Adam L Silverman: I think the majority of us have a form of PTSD. We spent over a year knowing that any random stranger, or a person we love, could give us a disease that could make us deathly ill or kill us. Layer on the stress from TFG’s administration, and it’s a wonder most of us are still mostly sane.
gwangung
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I’ll bet good money at least part of this has to do with the elimination of the gifted track and de-emphasis on standardized tests, both of which have allowed mostly Chinese kids to rise to the top of academics.
Soprano2
@Adam L Silverman: Do you think it’s because they’re beginning to think of themselves as white?
Fake Irishman
@Major Major Major Major:
I believe a smaller child Tax credit does become permanently refundable unde the current text, whcich is huge in itself.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
here’s the Democrats bragging about what they’ve done
Feathers
@Adam L Silverman: I think blaming white women for the current right wing ascendency and the ills of society in general is doing a lot of damage.
There has been so much analysis of the harm that Disney princesses, et al. have done with their unrealistic beauty standards. But I think the real damage is from the “and everyone loved her” part of the fairytale heroine’s description. There is so much pressure to keep up appearances, be popular, one of the cool kids, do the “right” everything. Falling into the right wing hive mind means never, ever being wrong.
I wish there were more understanding that authoritarian follower is a personality type. They exist in every society. In the US, they are racist, misogynist, anti-semites. Elsewhere, they develop different ways to sort society. This idea that we can just get everyone to stop being racist is a fool’s dream. We can stigmatize it, try to counter it, get rid of as much of the structural underpinnings, but prejudice will always be there.
Adam L Silverman
@Soprano2: In the case of a lot of the Cuban American community in Miami: yes. It’s complicated, but yes. In the case of the Tejano community in Texas, that’s part of it. The Texas Monthly article does a good job explaining the identity complexity.
In the case of Miami and south Florida, the various Hispanic and Latino communities are also very susceptible to messaging about socialism and communism. So if you can paint the Democrats and liberal and progressives as socialists and communists, you’re going to open a wedge. This is similar to many of the Americans who immigrated from the Soviet Union. Read Slava Malamud’s descriptions of his mother’s attitude to Democrats, as well as other members of his family and members of the former Soviet emigres.
Adam L Silverman
@Soprano2: As I’ve written here before, even his supporters are angry all the time. Including when he was actually president and he/they were supposedly winning.
Adam L Silverman
@Feathers: I’m not blaming them exclusively. I was just remarking on what the data seems to be telling us about what happened in VA. My real takeaway is that they were always okay with what you’ve described, they were just offended by Trump himself. So if you can provide them a candidate that is running on Trumpism, but doesn’t have Trump’s disgusting personality and behavior and mannerisms, etc, then they’ll happily vote for that person. As such, their swing to Biden in 2020 wasn’t a repudiation of what Trump was trying to do, Trump’s vision for what the US should be, Trump’s racism, anti-Semitism, xenophobia, homophobia, and misogyny. It was just a repudiation of Trump personally.
Feathers
@Soprano2: I think it is because a lot of them own small businesses and are thus primed to hear the Republican low taxes, don’t raise the minimum wage, no regulations, anti-worker messaging. It’s the dilemma of Republicans giving business what it wants, while businesses actually do better under Democrats.
Omnes Omnibus
I think everyone probably needed/needs to take a deep breath, take a walk, or hit a heavy bag for a while. It was all becoming a bit much.
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: Adam, it will be interesting to learn whether this capsule summary of what happened in VA is accurate, and whether it applies nationwide. I am inclined to agree with you. We all wish that America were a center-left nation, and we keep getting blindsided by a center-right two-by-four to the temple.
It’s good to see things clearly, to see things accurately, even if they’re dark.
Soprano2
@Adam L Silverman: A long time ago I read a book by Andrew Hacker (I think) where he talked about how flexible the category of “white” is. He said it was possible that someday most Latinos and Asians in the U.S. would be considered “white”. I think the categories are going to blur even more as intermarriage becomes more common.
guachi
This is a reasonable read on the situation. I hope it’s the former and not the latter, though.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: I think there are actually two different things happening that are working at cross purposes to each other. When you poll Americans, significant majorities support specific policies, programs, etc that we would definitely call liberal or progressive. When you poll Americans about how they understand themselves politically they don’t understand themselves as being liberal or progressive as those terms have been made labels that indicate something bad.
It also doesn’t help that a majority of Americans aren’t really paying a lot of attention.
Chetan Murthy
@Soprano2:
That can work for many Latinos, and sure, a lot of East Asians. But South Asians? A lot of us (esp. those of us from South India, but all over the subcontinent are dark-skinned people) are a shit-ton darker than most Black Americans. I find it difficult to believe that we’ll ever be accorded as part of the “unmarked category”.
Major Major Major Major
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: yeah idk. Most of my Asian friends are not big fans of the party, though for the most part they’ll pull the lever. A lot of it comes from the CA Dems’ persistent inability to address the big quality of life issues in the state.
ETA They also aren’t a big fan of being called “white adjacent” by lefty activists and whatnot. Or rioting in their parts of town last year in the Bay Area (also touches on existing, long running tensions with other minority communities). Etc.
Soprano2
@Adam L Silverman: Oh, I know, I live around a lot of them. They’re mad that anyone thinks the opinions of anyone but them are important. I’m talking about everyone. Our office manager says people who call in with problems are angrier and more assholish than before. She says she’s just worn out by it by Friday these days. Everyone is on edge more than usual, whether they’re political or not. I think that’s mostly about Covid.
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: Doesn’t really matter how they respond to poll though, does it? What matters is how they vote, and that’s what i mean by the “center-right two-by-four”. I read that East and South Asian populations in some of these wealthy VA counties went for Trumpkin. Ah, well. I mean, I can look at it horror, but I still have to draw the accurate conclusion. Which is: “yeah, maybe don’t hope for so much from 2022/4”.
Adam L Silverman
@Soprano2: Yep. The reason we have Columbus Day is because it was a way for Italian Americans to try to signal that they too were fully white and fully American. It still took another fifty years or so for that to become true in practice.
I find it very amusing, or it would be amusing if they weren’t causing serious harm, that the founder of Identity Europa was a Greek American Marine and the founder of the Groypers is Hispanic American. Same with Stephen Miller, Josh Mandel, Lee Zeldin, Ben Shapiro, Batya Ungar-Sargon, Bari Weiss, and Jacob Wohl among others.
Mike E
I believe this can’t be stated too much.
Adam L Silverman
@Soprano2: I think they should start putting an anti-anxiety solution in the water supply along with the fluoride.//
StringOnAStick
@Major Major Major Major: Did you see some tweets from AOC about the explosion of misinformation on Spanish language radio? That’s a problem that we D’s need to counter, fast.
Omnes Omnibus
Any evidence that we are in fact still mostly sane? I don’t count because I never really have been.
debbie
The SNL cold open was great. This new guy does TFG now. He doesn’t have the look or the mannerisms, but my god, the voice, the tics! Plus bonus Jeanne Pirro!
Soprano2
@Chetan Murthy: It was a lot more complicated than this, but yes it’s partly about skin color. He said he doesn’t think whites will ever allow black people to “assimilate” enough to be considered “white”, but that was when intermarriage was still pretty taboo. You’d have to read the book to get the whole idea.
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
Remember one of his supporters saying she was mad at TFG because he hadn’t hurt the people she wanted him to hurt badly enough?
Feathers
@Adam L Silverman: What I see is women who are the sort to be active, but are being pushed aside for being “white feminists.” And it’s white women women doing a lot of the denigrating. I don’t know that that is pushing the votes, but it is definitely causing women to step back who might have been running on the progressive side in some of those school board races, for example. People who would be stuffing mailers and knocking on doors just voting instead.
We’re just at one of those points where the activists are lapping the mainstream and attacking instead of analyzing who these people are and how to engage them.
Captain C
@Ken:
Given where the Russian Embassy is in Berlin, it would be pretty hard to hide a helicopter hovering in just the right place.
Soprano2
@Adam L Silverman: I wish they could do that at least temporarily. ?
The Dangerman
Looking forward to seeing your thoughts about 22 and 24; it’s interesting you described it as systemic given I was thinking a day or 2 ago that there has to be a better way.
I’m 60 and my first vote was for Reagan. I apologize profusely. This was before I started UCLA and had my eyes opened. So, whatever we are facing now has been building for at least 40 years. But something feels like its the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. It may be good and it may be a train. Not wise enough to know which one when I’m at 100%. I’m medicated off my ass as I prepare for Thursday and my Doctor wants me there at 5am, which means 4am wake up at the the latest, and, of course, no coffee because anesthesia. Not remotely afraid of procedure, but a 4 am alarm without caffeine is gonna suck mightily since I’m going to be sleep challenged in a massive way. I hope the Doc IVs Starbucks when we are done.
Huh, got distracted; I wonder if what you are sensing is anything remotely close to what I’m feeling coming. Anticipation. Anticipaaaation. Making me wait. It’s the medicine I swear.
Soprano2
@debbie: Yes, and I remember being furious that the reporter didn’t ask the follow-up question “Who do you think he should be hurting?” This is the essence of Trumpism.
CaseyL
I think any analysis of what’s happening in the US, politically and culturally, has to take into account the fact that the same thing is happening in other countries: UK, Hungary, Australia, and possibly a few more. It seems to me that massive-scale Othering, and the resultant pogroms/genocides, is a cyclic phenomenon.
Sometimes I think it’s just the human species responding to a collective-subconscious need to reduce our population, since we’re no longer subject to natural selection of any kind.
And it may be becoming acute now because of the whole climate disaster thing which is no longer theoretical or “some day,” but happening right now. Even people who profess to not accept GCC are acting out in ways that suggest they do, albeit (again) subconsciously.
Which is not to say we shouldn’t fight the forces of darkness: Of course we should! But if it’s a global, species-wide metavirus, I’m not sure what the most effective tools would be.
Feathers
@Major Major Major Major: Yes. I think a lot of “activists” don’t realize the harm they can do. I see people denouncing JK Rowling and anyone liking Harry Potter who would totally be rabidly anti-trans if they were in the UK. The relationship and identity part of politics is completely lost on so many.
Kelly
As well as your list of 9/11, Trump and the plague I’m really stressed by the last 5 or so years of increasingly horrific wildfires. The climate is changing much faster than I expected.
NotMax
@Gin & Tonic
“Time for belly skritches” doesn’t necessarily imply dog(s).
Just sayin’.
:)
Soprano2
So I’m seeing stuff about James O’Keefe having his apartment raided this morning. Anyone know what that’s about? Couldn’t happen to a more deserving asshole.
VOR
@Mike E: And we had a government who frankly didn’t give a crap whether we lived or died as long as it didn’t make the President look bad. Like the Lt. Governor of Texas being okay with seniors dying for the economy.
Kelly
randy khan
@Major Major Major Major:
Spoken like a renter! (j/k) Broadly speaking, that’s right, and it’s part of the tax incentives that are intended to get people to buy their homes, like the mortgage interest deduction. It’s long been a tenet of tax policy that encouraging home ownership is good idea, but that particular tenet really hasn’t been examined in any detail.
That said, In high tax places like New York City (where you get both state and local income tax), it also historically has benefitted people with decent incomes who rented, but that may have changed with the increase in the standard deduction.
Chetan Murthy
@randy khan: I rent, do not own property, and take the standard deduction. But I can understand the logic of repealing the SALT cap, and it’s easy logic.
Do you want to drive away Dem voters in Blue states, and not gain any Dem voters in Red states? B/c that’s what the SALT cap did, plain and simple. Yes, we want to raise taxes overall. But we’d be *stupid* to decide to raise taxes only in Blue states, while leaving them low in Red states.
Major Major Major Major
@randy khan: I don’t know the numbers but I’m sure a lot of people stopped itemizing.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Major Major Major Major:
Vietnamese have always be more likely to vote for the GOP
ETA: At least here in SoCal.
Major Major Major Major
@Chetan Murthy: it’s already been done. Now they’re trying to cut taxes for homeowners in wealthy areas, probably to buy off conservatives, instead of doing something else (again this is the single most expensive item in the bill), we shouldn’t pretend it’s good policy. This is a proactive change, not a reversion, that’s not how it works.
@?BillinGlendaleCA: yes but the trend is bad as well.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Soprano2: a very weird story about Ashley Biden’s diary.
NotMax
@Soprano2
Here ya go.
Soprano2
Ugh, sounds like the kind of sleazy thing he would be involved in.
frosty
@Major Major Major Major: @phdesmond: To be clear, SALT only benefits homeowners who file a Schedule A. Once the mortgage is paid off there aren’t enough deductions to itemize. The SALT deduction, capped or not, makes no difference at that point.
Chris T.
@frosty: That’s not true in California (at least SFBayArea) where a “modest” home is $1M and the taxes are therefore $14k/yr (theoretically they’re 1% but due to add-ons they actually run about 1.4%). A “modest” combined 2-person income of $140k/yr runs 8 or 9 k in state income tax, so 14+8 = 22 = noticeable. Add in property taxes on the cars (2 income couple = 2 cars) and other miscellaneous deductible items and you can pretty easily take $30k off your nominal $140k income.
(And if the mortgage isn’t paid off … your “modest” $140k, 70k each, income shrinks by maybe 60k instead of 30k and now you’re paying Fed taxes on $80k for your family of 4. Since they’re graduated, and the 2021 rate is 24% on “head of household” income over $85k, you’re saving 24% on the entire $60k, or $14.4k in Fed taxes. Higher wages, e.g., in SF proper, make this even steeper.)
eclare
@Adam L Silverman: I have been saying that for years, along with others: America has PTSD.
eclare
@Major Major Major Major: When I lived in GA I could itemize due to the SALT deduction as a renter. I made good money, but nothing obnoxious.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: At least in Virginia, Latinos supposedly went Blue by 2:1.
BlueVirginia.US
FWIW
Cheers,
Scott.
Steeplejack (phone)
Time check . . .
Morzer
I believe the technical term is 0.05 Greenwalds.
lowtechcyclist
Normally I’d feel the same way, Adam, except that I have it on good authority that
Sorry, couldn’t resist. Especially since there isn’t one any more or less this morning than there was ten days ago. But I’m glad you’ve calmed down about that fact.
Yeah, there’s not much to do now but wait and hope, and trust that whatever assurances Pelosi and Jayapal got from Biden or Schumer or whoever are based on something reasonably solid. But I can also understand why a handful of progressives, with Pelosi’s OK, apparently, cast a “pardon my skepticism, but…” vote against the BIF.
And while I can understand why some are going, “look at all the stuff in the BIF, there’d been ticker-tape parades if Obama had passed this!”, well, we’re at a moment of far greater peril with respect to global warming than we were when Obama had any chance of getting anything through Congress back in 2009-2010, and the significance of any legislation must be viewed through that prism. Hopefully the House having passed this bill will make it easier for Joe Manchin to agree to vote for the other bill, and that’s all that matters.
Geminid
@Chris T.: I have never used the SALT deduction, and I never will. Still, I am glad it will be restored in full because I think it’s good politics. One salient aspect of Democratic gains in the 2018 midterms was the seats Democrats flipped in relatively high income suburban districts like those in southern California and in New Jersey. I think the capping of the SALT deduction hurt Republicans, and may have helped Democrats like Andy Kim, Mikie Sherril, Katie Porter and other California Democrats win.
The SALT dedution is in effect a subsidy of higher state and local taxes. The Republicans rationalized the cap as an equity matter: “blue” states taxpayers were not pulling their weight in federal taxes because of the SALT deduction. That of course was bullshit on many counts. Their real motivation was to sap the motivation of high income voters to support better services for their less affluent neighbors.
In a discussion here some months ago, one commenter pointed out that few high income people are going to move to lower tax states. That is more or less true. But they can stay and vote in tax-cutting Republican candidates for local and state office, and this I think was the motivation of Congressional Republicans in capping the SALT tax.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Thanks, Adam. Your post makes me feel better about the fate of the BBB.
I don’t blame you for taking a break. I’m finding it hard to read the news most mornings. The consequences of the TFG’s rule and his party’s insanity seem never ending.
SFAW
Possibly OT, but: has anyone seen or heard anything from Adam lately? I kinda miss his posts, wondering if he’s OK.
Good to see you, Adam.
SFAW
@Geminid:
Despite our various debt loads (mortgage on our home plus a home equity loan for #2’s college plus bailing out a relative), we ended up using the standard deduction. The taxes on our home are well north of $10K, for a not-very-expensive [below median in our not-particularly-rich ‘burb) home. From just those things, we went from getting refunds to paying out a fair amount.
And, no, we’re not wealthy. Well, compared to a household of minimum wage earners we are, but our combined incomes are nothing to write home about.
Bill Arnold
Looking forward to this.
Bill Arnold
@Geminid:
Yes, agreed. I saw removing it as effectively a new tax on taxes, to pay for rewarding loyal low tax Republican states with an overall tax reduction targeted at the affluent, and to punish states with Democratic leadership. (This was even stated explicitly a few times, by accident.) A new Tax Tax. Raised my Federal income taxes by about $3K, and raised the taxes for the better off upper middle class Republicans in my town by double or triple that. Few in the media went with that narrative though, for various reasons.
(And yes, other state and local taxes like sales tax paid should not be taxed, either, but that’s harder to do the accounting for without a full financial panopticon.)
Major Major Major Major
@Chris T.: why it’s almost like living in the Bay Area is a poor decision!
Another Scott
@Geminid: The State and Local Tax deduction is not going to be “restored in full”.
TaxFoundation (from November 5):
Supposedly Lincoln railed against “double-taxation” when the Civil War era income tax was imposed…
I’m not against a limit on the deduction (or any deductions that are abused), but it should be at a sensible level and $10k is too low when the bazillionaires are paying next to nothing.
Cheers,
Scott.
JaneE
I just do not understand why the media doesn’t seem to really value Democratic accomplishments and act as if Republicans have all the good points to talk about. It is almost as if they think the working classes and poor in this country are not human enough to have any relevance to governing priorities.
Before I was born: Social Security. My grandparents got food from the commodities program.
In my lifetime: Medicare, Obamacare (ACA) and now infrastructure. All passed under Democratic administrations.
I think Teddy Roosevelt talked about national health care. Trump certainly promised infrastructure week often enough, but never came through with anything. He didn’t even do much to get vaccines into people instead of warehouses.
What does it take for the media to notice that Democrats have been delivering on things promised, even by Republicans, and the Republicans only deliver tax cuts for the rich?
J R in WV
@JaneE:
We can’t afford to pay the news media enough to recognize that Rs are fascists who want all the money to go to the people already on top of the economy.
After all, the rich fascists own the news media… lock stock and barrel.
Ruckus
@Soprano2:
Who you calling sane?
Nobody in particular
@Adam L Silverman:
Enjoy the Holidays, and a brief respite, Adam. You deserve it. Self care.
PTSD. Those of us who have suffered with it for years, speaking for myself, actually did quite well coping. Finally, after years of doing without meds, I went back on SSRIs. Just temporarily. Situational depression but can still be treated. This is not a local problem. It’s global.
Trauma is one of the most misunderstood, underreported and untreated conditions on the planet. That’s changing. It’s just shell shock, or you might be a coward.
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/trauma-informed-care-what-it-is-and-why-its-important-2018101613562
How do I maintain my lofty perch above it all? Chapter 10 from Little Dorrit. – Containing the whole Science of Government.
Dickens, From the previous thread, and from the wisdom of the Old Gringo, the Definition of a Republic from The Devil’s Dictionary:
Nobody in particular
@JaneE:
TR. Have you ever read the 1912 Party Platform for TR’s Bull Moose Party? The first Progressive Party, when progressive was still a problematic label. All political labels are mutable and useless. Not that No Labels Right-wing attempt to woo the left. But John Adams and many of the framers feared factionalism and Political parties were the “factionalism” Fedralist 10 explores, were not wanted or welcomed. Jefferson was a progressive. But progressivism, like conservatism, is nothing more than an attitude. From Russel Kirk’s Ten Conservative Principles. And Lord Hailsham, a conservative contemporary of Churchill, also known as the British “Mr. Conservative.”
Know this. When you hear some clod, like Morning Joke, talk about “conservative ideology,” you are listening to a blithering idiot who has no idea what he’s talking about. If I had a dollar for every so-called Conservative who commits this faux pas, I’d be damn rich. Conservatism is anti-ideological, according to Peter Viereck, The First American Conservative, He was purged from his own movement when Buckley purged the Birchers.
I’m with Adams on this.
I find the full context of Santayana’s warning about history illuminating here:
Progressive platform, basically the same for over 100 years. Kill the Filibuster, or … Times up. There even was the first iteration of the DEEPSTATE. Big Business.
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/progressive-party-platform-1912