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You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Sunday / Monday, Nov. 14-15

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Sunday / Monday, Nov. 14-15

by | 58 Comments

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TL, DR: Because they can — and have every reason to stick with a plan that’s working for the administration:

… Dr Zhong Nanshan is seen as something of a medical hero in China. The specialist in respiratory medicine shot to global fame in 2003 for challenging the then-government’s line that the Sars outbreak was not so severe.

These days, people – including officials – listen to what he has to say.

In a recent interview, he said China’s strict Covid amelioration measures would remain for “a rather long time”.

He added that a global Covid-19 mortality rate of 2% was too high for China to accept even with vaccines in place. The cost of opening too quickly was not worth it, he said, adding that China would be watching the experience of other countries under their “living-with-Covid” plans.

It is also important to consider that China’s officials can be quite conservative in their approach. It is possible that they plan to “re-open” the country again and are simply in no great rush to do so…

While middle and upper class people may be lamenting the lack of freedom to move about internationally, many ordinary Chinese citizens seem content to allow the government to manage the situation if it keeps them healthy.

In the meantime, mass testing, centralised quarantine, transport controls, high-level surveillance, delivering track and trace as well as strict, localised lockdowns will remain a big part of life in China.

… Chinese authorities said 32 new domestically transmitted infections with confirmed symptoms have been reported for Nov. 14, most of which were in northeastern Dalian city. That brings the tally of local cases since Oct. 17 to 1,308, Reuters calculations based on official data showed, surpassing the 1,280 local cases from a summer Delta outbreak.

This marks China’s most widespread Delta outbreak, which has affected 21 provinces, regions and municipalities. While it is smaller than many outbreaks in other countries, Chinese authorities are anxious to block any further transmissions under the government’s zero-tolerance guidance…

Since Dalian’s first local symptomatic patients from the latest outbreak was reported on Nov. 4, the port city of 7.5 million people has detected an average of about 24 new local cases a day, more than any other Chinese cities, according to Reuters calculations.

A few cities near Dalian, including Dandong, Anshan and Shenyang, have said people arriving from Dalian have to be quarantined at centralised facilities for 14 days before they can move freely, in an unusually cautious measure.

As of Nov. 14, mainland China had reported 98,315 confirmed coronavirus cases with symptoms, including domestically transmitted infections and those from overseas. There have been 4,636 deaths…

… The Ngati Toa tribe, which has legal guardianship of the haka, issued a strong notice after protestors performed the war dance during demonstrations last week.

The notice comes as vaccination rates among the Maori people have been low.

Just 61% of eligible Maori people are fully vaccinated and 77% have received their first dose. This is short of New Zealand’s targeted rate of 90% among its eligible population.

“Ngati Toa condemns the use of the Ka Mate haka to push and promote anti-Covid-19 vaccination messages,” said its chief executive officer Helmut Modlik in a statement.

“Many of our tupuna [ancestors] lost their lives in previous pandemics… we are absolutely clear that the COVID-19 vaccine is the best protection we have available to us, and we are committed to supporting our whānau [family] to get vaccinated as soon as possible.”…

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From a long, illo-heavy thread:

Reader Interactions

58Comments

  1. 1.

    NeenerNeener

    Monroe County, NY:

    The Monroe County website takes the weekend off; the NYSDOH says 392 new cases.

  2. 2.

    Amir Khalid

    Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 5,143 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 2,551,452 cases. It also reports 45 deaths as of midnight, for an adjusted cumulative total of 29,676 deaths – 1.16% of the cumulative reported total, 1.19% of resolved cases.

    Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 1.05.

    474 confirmed cases are in ICU, 192 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 4,551 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,455,767 patients recovered – 96.2% of the cumulative reported total.

    Three new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 5,843 clusters. 250 clusters are currently active; 5,593 clusters are now inactive.

    5,130 new cases today are local infections. 13 new cases today are imported.

    The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 43,731 doses of vaccine on 14th November: 3,117 first doses, 9,959 second doses, and 30,655 booster doses. As of midnight, the cumulative total is 51,196,152 doses administered: 25,600,780 first doses, 24,809,677 second doses, and 970,364 booster doses. 78.4% of the population have received their first dose, while 76.0% are now fully vaccinated.

  3. 3.

    ant

    I wonder how big a roll vitamin D deficiency is playing in this latest increase in covid cases.

     

    It occurs to me that our ancestors spent more time out in the sun than we do. Also, the sun isn’t very bright this time of year either.

  6. 6.

    YY_Sima Qian

    On 11/14 China reported 32 new domestic confirmed (12 previously asymptomatic) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases.

    At Ejina Banner in Alxa League, Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 17 active domestic confirmed cases remaining.

    At Xi’an in Shaanxi Province there currently are 8 active domestic confirmed cases in the city.

    Ningxia “Autonomous” Region did not report any new domestic positive cases. 7 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 23 active domestic confirmed cases in the region (all at Yinchuan).

    Gansu Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 92 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • At Lanzhou 3 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 55 active domestic confirmed cases remaining in the city.
    • At Tianshui 2 domestic positive cases recovered. There currently are 31 active domestic confirmed cases in the city. 1 community, 1 residential compound & 1 village remain at Medium Risk.
    • 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered in the rest of the province, 6 active domestic confirmed cases remain (3 at Zhangye & 3 at Jiayuguan).

    Hebei Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case (moderate). 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered.There currently are 118 active confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • At Shijiazhuang 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 55 active domestic confirmed (20 mild & 35 moderate) & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the city. 1 village remains at High Risk & 1 village remains at Medium Risk.
    • Xinji reported 1 new domestic confirmed case (moderate), a traced close contact already under centralized quarantine. 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 63 active domestic confirmed cases (39 mild & 24 moderate) remaining in the city. 1 zone remains at High Risk.

    At Hunan Province there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed (at Changsha) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Zhuzhou) cases remaining in the province.

    At Zunyi in Guizhou Province there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases (1 moderate & 1 serious) remaining in the city. 2 residential compounds remain at Medium Risk.

    At Jilin City in Jilin Province there currently are 1 active domestic & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.

    Beijing Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. 2 communities & 1 residential compound are currently at Medium Risk.

    At Rizhao in Shandong Province there currently are 13 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 residential compound is currently at Medium Risk.

    Sichuan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 27 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.

    • Chengdu did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 26 active domestic confirmed remaining in the city. 1 residential compound is currently at High Risk. 12 residential compounds are currently at Medium Risk.
    • At Zigong there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining.

    Chongqing Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed & 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. 2 residential compounds & 1 office building are currently at Medium Risk.

    At Changzhou in Jiangsu Province there currently are 3 active domestic confirmed cases remaining. 3 residential compounds are currently at Medium Risk.

    At Xining in Qinghai Province there currently is 11 active domestic confirmed case remaining.

    Heilongjiang Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases. 13 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 239 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • Heihe reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases, both traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine. 13 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 233 active domestic confirmed cases in the city, all at Aihui District. 2 residential compounds & 1 village are currently at High Risk. 15 residential compounds, 1 residential building & 2 villages are currently at Medium Risk.
    • At Harbin here currently are 6 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the city. 3 residential compounds were re-designated to Low Risk. 1 residential compounds remains at Medium Risk.

    Shangrao in Jiangxi Province reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, both are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine. 6 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 12 active domestic confirmed & 47 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 township & 2 residential compounds are currently Medium Risk.

    At Zhejiang Province there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Jiaxing) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Hangzhou) cases remaining.

    Henan Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases (2 previously asymptomatic). 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 73 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.

    • Zhengzhou reported 1 new domestic confirmed case. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 55 active domestic confirmed (52 from the current outbreak, 3 from the previous outbreak in Aug. who were transferred from Shangqiu). 3 communities, 1 residential compound & 3 villages are currently at Medium Risk.
    • Zhoukou reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases (both previously asymptomatic). There currently are 18 active domestic confirmed cases in the city. 1 community is currently at Medium Risk.

    Dalian in Liaoning Province reported 25 new domestic confirmed cases (10 previously asymptomatic, 12 mild & 13 moderate), of the 15 new domestic positive cases 14 are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine & 1 is from mass screening. There currently are 260 active domestic confirmed & 44 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 2 communities are currently at High Risk. 10 residential compounds, 12 residential buildings & 9 villages are currently at Medium Risk.

    Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case (at Ruili, from screening of persons under centralized quarantine). 2 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 27 active domestic confirmed & 29 active domestic asymptomatic cases at the prefecture. 1 village at Yingjiang County was elevated to Medium Risk. 2 zones & 2 villages at Ruili, plus a village at Yingjiang County are currently at Medium Risk.

    Imported Cases    

    On 11/14, China reported 20 new imported confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic), 12 imported asymptomatic cases, 2 imported suspect cases:

    • Shanghai Municipality – 5 confirmed cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Japan, Singapore, Mexico (via Frankfurt), the Ukraine (via Frankfurt), & the UK; 2 imported cases, no information released
    • Yunnan Province (location not specified) – 4 confirmed & 1 asymptomatic cases, all Chinese nationals returning from Myanmar, via land border crossings
    • Guangzhou in Guangdong Province – 3 confirmed cases (previously asymptomatic), 1 Chinese national each returning from the DRC (via Nairobi), Nigeria (via Nairobi) & Oman; 4 asymptomatic cases, 2 Chinese nationals returning from the UAE & 1 each from Canada & the DRC (via Nairobi)
    • Foshan in Guangdong Province – 1 confirmed case, coming from the Netherlands; 1 asymptomatic case, coming from France; off flights that landed at Guangzhou
    • Qingdao in Shandong Province – 3 confirmed cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Argentina (via Germany), Germany & the UK (via Germany) 
    • Xiamen in Fujian Province – 2 confirmed cases, both Chinese nationals returning from Singapore
    • Taiyuan in Shanxi Province – 1 confirmed case, no information released
    • Xi’an in Shaanxi Province – 1 confirmed case, a Chinese national returning from Japan
    • Beijing Municipality – 2 asymptomatic cases, no information released
    • Chengdu in Sichuan Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national coming from Egypt
    • Guangxi “Autonomous” Region (location not specified) – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released
    • Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province – 1 asymptomatic case, coming from the UAE
    • Jiangsu Province (location not specified) – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released 

    Overall in China, 55 confirmed cases recovered (19 imported), 12 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (10 imported) & 13 were reclassified as confirmed cases (1 imported), & 2,492 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 1,347 active confirmed cases in the country (382 imported), 17 in serious condition (2 imported), 521 active asymptomatic cases (367 imported), 4 suspect cases (all imported). 46,241 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.

    As of 11/14, 2,389.568M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 7.435M doses in the past 24 hrs.

    On 11/15, Hong Kong reported 6 new positive cases, all imported.

  7. 7.

    Robert Sneddon

    @ant: 

    I wonder how big a roll vitamin D deficiency is playing in this latest increase in covid cases.

    Absolutely none.

    It occurs to me that our ancestors spent more time out in the sun than we do. Also, the sun isn’t very bright this time of year either.

    Our ancestors were not exposed to the SARS-nCoV-2 virus and its variants so that’s a rather pointless consideration. I will agree that for inhabitants pf the Northern Hemisphere the sun isn’t very bright in winter.

  8. 8.

    MagdaInBlack

    My company has put out a memo regarding the vax or test mandate: they are waiting to see what comes of the legal challenges.

    I feel so valued.

  9. 9.

    The Thin Black Duke

    Thanks to the goddamned Anti-Vaxxers, I’ve reconciled myself to the reality that COVID-19 will be with us for the rest of my life. I’m always going to be feel uncomfortable eating at restaurants, riding on the T, shopping at the supermarket. I might never go to a movie theater or a concert again. The idiots who refuse to get vaccinated can’t die off fast enough.

  10. 10.

    NotMax

    Color me skeptical.

    Cambodia reopened its borders to fully vaccinated travelers on Monday, two weeks earlier than originally planned, as it emerges from a lengthy lockdown bolstered by one of the world’s highest rates of immunization against COVID-19.
    [snip]
    The previous plan had been to phase in the reopening by initially restricting travelers to two seaside provinces, but the new scheme means fully vaccinated travelers will be free to visit anywhere in the country after a negative test, the ministry said. Source

  11. 11.

    Matt McIrvin

    @ant: It’s plausible that vitamin D deficiency contributes to likelihood and severity of COVID infection, and even Anthony Fauci has endorsed the idea, but the results on this have been equivocal and in some cases suspect:

    jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/277500

    In any event, there are other good reasons to take supplements if you’re deficient

    The main reason many infectious diseases have winter waves is that in much of the temperate zone, cold weather drives people to socialize and entertain themselves indoors.

  12. 12.

    New Deal democrat

    As usual, sketchy data because of the weekend. But regionally the South has stopped declining, the West remains flat, the Northeast continues to rise, and the Midwest has risen sharply. In general those States with the worst outbreaks in the past 2 months are the ones declining, while those that best dodged Delta before are succumbing to it now. One out of seven Americans has had a confirmed case.

    Vaccination data not updated. I suspect it will start to rise again when the next panic sets in.

  13. 13.

    Matt McIrvin

    @New Deal democrat: My mother-in-law mentioned that the vaccination clinic she worked at over the past weekend was very busy but it was 100% booster shots, basically zero new vaccinations. They may not have been doing kids there, though. But among adults in MA, it sounds to me like the people rushing out to get new shots are the already-vaccinated. I also wonder how many of the official new vaccinations in the statistics are actually mis-recorded booster shots.

  14. 14.

    Ken

    @Matt McIrvin: In any event, there are other good reasons to take supplements if you’re deficient.

    “Doctor, should I take vitamin C and D supplements to ward off COVID?”

    “No. Take them to ward off scurvy and osteoporosis.”

  15. 15.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Matt McIrvin: ​
      There’s an endless quest for a “magic bullet” that will stop this pandemic in its tracks like they do in movies like ‘Contagion’. Vitamins are one such instant solution touted by many, ditto for zincpack, cow urine, ivermectin and a host of other nicely-packaged medical products. Sorry, but one simple pill the doctors won’t tell you about isn’t going to make this endemic disease go away.

    The bad news is that vaccinations, masking etc. aren’t a “magic bullet” either although they do have some proven efficacy in terms of reducing the spread of the disease and its severity when people are infected.

    Vitamin D is a borderline case — the health services here in Scotland recommend people take a supplement in the winter, not to prevent COVID-19 but for general health and wellbeing due to general lack of sunshine and an indoors lifestyle once it gets cold and wet. Being a bit healthier when (not if) you’re exposed to COVID-19 will help but it’s no magic bullet.

  16. 16.

    Matt McIrvin

    It occurred to me recently that a lot of the general dissatisfaction with Biden across the country is probably very simple: for people outside of coastal deep-blue areas, the COVID situation has actually been way worse in 2021 than it was in 2020, when Trump was in. Back then, we were dying in huge piles here in the Northeast megalopolis, but they could tell themselves it was our problem and not give a shit. Now, well, cases are up again with Delta, but at least we’ve got vaccines and the death rates are way down. But it’s actually affected them more than it did before, and Biden won’t tell them to pretend it’s not there, like they want to do. It’s largely their own state governments’ and their own behavior’s fault, but Americans were never particularly good at connecting cause and effect. Yeah, they want Trump back. When Trump was in, COVID was mostly killing liberals!

    I also think we need to start thinking about what the long-term state of COVID is going to be like in this country if an antivaxxer-friendly Republican administration that is actively malevolent toward the blue states (maybe literally a second Trump administration) is installed with a legislative majority at some point in the future. We’re hoping we can keep getting boosters and treatment as needed, but that might not be the case. We could be in a state of passive biological warfare where, as in 2020, they try to whittle us down and hobble us politically by denying the means of fighting COVID. They know we’re at a disadvantage if everyone is getting sick, but only our side really cares and is trying to shut it down with physical isolation.

  19. 19.

    NorthLeft12

    My wife and I were invited to a cousin’s housewarming party in Toronto. It was very nice of them to invite us (we live about three hours drive away) but neither of us feel comfortable going. Not sure when we will feel comfortable.
    BTW, we are getting our booster shots this morning. We qualify because we received the AstraZenaca vaccine just under six months ago.

  20. 20.

    New Deal democrat

    @Matt McIrvin: >>”100% booster shots, basically zero new vaccinations.”

    That’s my sense of what is happening with vaccinations now as well.

    With over 80% of adults having had at least one shot, we are down to the hard core anti-vaxxers now. Charles Gaba to the contrary, my sense is that these are mainly Young Invincibles who do not see COVID as an issue for them, and will not take any responsibility towards public health unless absolutely forced to.

    In my own life, I know one family owned restaurant where the young adult children, who also are the waiters, absolutely refuse to get the shot. They’re nice kids, but I will not see them again until next spring, because I refuse to dine inside. By the way, they also serve as volunteer assistant coaches at a local high school.

  21. 21.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @ant: It occurs to me that our ancestors spent more time out in the sun than we do. Also, the sun isn’t very bright this time of year either.

    The sun wasn’t very bright during the last Ice Age in northern Eurasia, that’s why Europeans have fair skin.

  22. 22.

    Brachiator

    In reference to a comment yesterday about responding to Covid from Soprano2.

    I know it’s not popular here to say things like this, but what Leonardt is asking is not an unreasonable question. We are not going to have “forever masks” in the US no matter how much some people would like that. We have to learn to live with Covid in the world, because zero Covid isn’t happening either.

    I get the impression that public health officials and medical experts are discussing how we might live with Covid. You don’t hear much these days about the coming victory of herd immunity over the pandemic. And locally, the doctor who is a key administrator at an Orange County, California emergency hospital suggested in a radio interview that the state might look at a sustained decreased in the level of hospital admissions as a signal the Covid had been contained.

    The problem is that some conservatives and others are hot to “return to normal” and are willing to accept Covid deaths as inevitable and normal. But these people ignore the fact that surges, even in areas with high rates of infection, puts incredible strains on hospitals. These people also dismiss the pain and horror of serious Covid infections. They think all of this will just be someone else’s problem and are not willing to increase funding or support to the medical system to deal with potential surges.

    Meanwhile, some countries continue to pursue a zero infection strategy. But a recent BBC News story notes that some countries are trying to coexist with Covid.

    New Zealand, which initially adopted a tough Covid-19 response, has said it will begin moving away from a zero-Covid strategy toward one of living with the virus.

    The country has reported 9,000 cases so far and 34 deaths, with its death toll among the lowest in the world.

    But even a nation like New Zealand with few deaths can have surges.

  23. 23.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Matt McIrvin:  Those White People are horrible at math. Go look around at social media, every Republican voting Floridian thinks Florida is doing awesome on the pandemic because DeSantis says so and he stopped the mask mandates.

  24. 24.

    Fair Economist

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: Actually Europeans during the Ice Age had fairly dark skin. The mutations that produce pale skin were very rare until about 9,000 years ago. A currently popular hypothesis is that when Europeans started farming and got less meat in their diet they also got less vitamin D and so pale skin became favorable by helping them make more D. Rickets was indeed a significant health issue there until quite recently.

    IOW pale skin shows you’re adapted to eat a “soy boy” diet. ;-)

  26. 26.

    Soprano2

    @Matt McIrvin:Yeah, they want Trump back. When Trump was in, COVID was mostly killing liberals!

    There might actually be something to this. I keep seeing people on FB say that more people died of Covid when Biden was president, which I don’t think is true because they forget Trump was president for the first 20 days of January and there were a lot of deaths then, but it could end up being true before the year is over. (Never mind how many people died of Covid early on that weren’t recorded as Covid deaths!) Of course, it’s not because Biden wasn’t trying to keep people from dying – he did everything he could to get people vaccinated. I find myself wondering if the MAGA’s would have gotten vaccinated if TFG had won, because they wouldn’t want him to fail.

  27. 27.

    Soprano2

    @Brachiator:  I think we will continue to have surges and deaths, and most of that will be among the unvaccinated and the extremely immunocompromised. I saw on here sometime last week that the percentage of people who say they will never take the Covid shot is down to 13%. Those are the hardest of the hard core, and I doubt there is anything that can be done to get them to take it short of making life impossible for them, which of course our government won’t do. From what I’ve read there were still surges of flu from the 1918 pandemic in 1920, so this continuing into 2022 isn’t that unusual. Because Covid is so contagious, and so many people can have extremely mild or asymptomatic cases, I don’t think “zero Covid” was ever viable in the U.S.

  29. 29.

    Soprano2

    Here’s a nuanced story about “long Covid” on NPR this morning. The short story is that it’s not that unusual to have lingering symptoms from a severe illness, so this might be something that’s common but we just never noticed it as much before. Something unique to Covid might be much more rare.

    As for my area, it appears we’ve plateaued in the “yellow” zone of cases and hospitalizations. So far they haven’t posted any Covid deaths for November, which is good. I’ve resigned myself to the fact that it might not be much better here for a long time – we’re at 52.53% of adults fully vaxxed and 57.72% with at least one shot. They haven’t adjusted their dashboard for children yet.

  31. 31.

    Fair Economist

    @Soprano2: The aftermath of the 1918 flu was different, tho. The original strain was soon supplanted by another close relative that appears to be substantially less dangerous, and that’s the flu that circulated until 1952, and then was revived from a frozen source in 1977 and continues to circulate today. SARS2 *might* evolve to a less dangerous version; but it has’t yet and perhaps never will.

  32. 32.

    gene108

    @The Thin Black Duke:

    I’m always going to be feel uncomfortable eating at restaurants, riding on the T, shopping at the supermarket. I might never go to a movie theater or a concert again.

    As immunosuppressed individual, I am 99% confident I will no longer see movies in theaters, eat in restaurants, etc., because too many greedy malicious assholes decided wearing a mask and getting a free vaccine is too much of burden on them.

  33. 33.

    Jay

    @gene108:

    sorry about that.

    Ditto likewise, other than I have to take transit, work in high volume retail,  but my mask(s) ain’t coming off anytime soon when there are people around.

  34. 34.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Soprano2: Yeah… the symptoms of long COVID are shockingly common in the general population, which makes the data in these studies hard to interpret, but it also makes me wonder how many other seemingly benign infectious conditions are actually giving people long-term chronic-fatigue-type disabilities. It could be that we’re only paying special attention to long COVID here because COVID is a deadly virus.

  35. 35.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Soprano2: Eradicating COVID is hopeless because there are so many animal reservoirs–we’d keep having outbreaks into the indefinite future because of cross-species transmission. I do suspect the way we think about it will change once effective treatments are widely available, though–that was what turned HIV/AIDS from a lurking terror to something socially manageable.

    My great-grandmother died of what was probably the 1918 flu in 1921. These things have long tails.

  36. 36.

    Matt McIrvin

    @New Deal democrat: The wild card is the question of how many parents will get their younger kids vaccinated. Here in the Northeast, I suspect the answer is ultimately going to be a majority (just going by the situation with teenagers), but that will take some time.

  37. 37.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Soprano2: If Trump had been reelected, we’d have inadequate vaccine supplies everywhere and the administration would probably low-key promote antivax stories to help imply that it didn’t matter.

  38. 38.

    Sloane Ranger

    Here in the UK we had 36,517 new cases. This is a decrease of 6% in the rolling 7-day average, but, weekend office closures mean this figure is an undercount. I expect to see a significantly larger number of new cases reported today and Tuesday. New cases by nation,

    England – 29,404 (down 3999)

    Northern Ireland – 1377 (down 429)

    Scotland -3077 (up 25)

    Wales -2659 (includes cases from Saturday).

    Deaths – There were 63 deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported yesterday. Again, number artificially low due to weekend office closures. The rolling 7-day average is down by 6.9%. 51 of the reported deaths were in England, 5 in Northern Ireland, 1 in Scotland and 6 in Wales (may include some deaths that occured on Saturday).

    Testing – Not updated at weekends.

    Hospitalisations – Not updated at weekends.

    Vaccinations – As at Saturday, 13 November, 50,557,065 people had had 1 shot of a vaccine, 46,009,463 had had 2 shots and 12,613,256 had had a 3rd shot/booster. In percentage terms, this means that 87.9% of all people in the UK aged 12+ had had 1 shot, 80% had had 2 and 21.9% had had a 3rd shot/booster.

  39. 39.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Matt McIrvin: Many anecdotal long-COVID reports are from people who suffered severe viral infections resulting in lung damage such as blood clots, fibrosis and other cellular damage. They often leave hospital with an oxygen bottle that they’re going to be attached to for years, possibly for the rest of their abbreviated lifespan and they are going to be returning frequently to hospital for treatment for kidney problems, heart disease, circulation issues etc.

    Most long-COVID issues have roots traceable from the initial infection such as kidney damage, lung damage etc. but there are also the lingering effects of aggressive medical treatments trying to keep someone alive such as steroids, blood thinners, tracheotomies etc. In those sorts of cases survival with medically-induced chronic damage to organs is the best outcome medical science can offer.

    Get vaccinated, all the odds shift in your favour. If (or rather when) you catch COVID-19 afterwards it’s more likely the effects of the disease will be mild. If hospitalisation is required then harsh interventions are less likely to be needed and it’s more likely you will walk out of the hospital rather than be wheeled out once treatment is complete. That’s all the vaccines can realistically offer though, better odds in the COVID casino.

  40. 40.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Robert Sneddon: The thing that it’s hard to get a bead on is all the reports that “mild” (non-hospitalized) or even completely asymptomatic COVID infections can result in long COVID, and the question of how this relates to breakthrough infections. The most comprehensive study I’d seen implied that long COVID was about half as common in breakthrough infections as in unvaccinated infections, which is worryingly high, but they were using a very, very broad definition–e. g. depression or persistent headaches counted as a long-COVID symptom.

  41. 41.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Robert Sneddon: A lot of people really want to believe that the right diet with the right nutritional supplements will protect you from all infectious disease. It’s like a religious belief.

  42. 42.

    Brachiator

    @Soprano2:

    I think we will continue to have surges and deaths, and most of that will be among the unvaccinated and the extremely immunocompromised.

    Probably not true, or not the whole story. In a prior Covid thread, I noted how a fully vaccinated guy got Covid after going to an IMAX screening of Dune.

    The issue is not just deaths. It is about how many might become seriously ill and how medical resources might be strained.

    It is also about how quickly and widely surges might occur and the best ways of responding to surges.

    And yeah, people are tired of masks, but the question remains, what are the best ways to reduce the risk of getting Covid and whether there are ways of mitigating its impact.

    People want to get back to normal. But I would never go to the movies again if the theater is fully packed. Same with an indoor concert or sporting event. Or maybe I would consider it if masks were required and used by everyone.

    Comparisons with the flu are not as useful as some might think. Covid is its own thing. It is still mutating and developing its own behavior.

  43. 43.

    Brachiator

    @Soprano2:

    I’ve resigned myself to the fact that it might not be much better here for a long time – we’re at 52.53% of adults fully vaxxed and 57.72% with at least one shot.

    This is about the level of vaccination in the parts of Austria where they are putting the unvaccinated into lockdown.

  44. 44.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Matt McIrvin: I think part of the reason is that most of the world appears to be using a very broad definition for “mild”, as in anything that does not require hospitalization. In China, “mild” means low grade fever, light coughing, runny nose, headache & dizziness, but no sign of pneumonia; “moderate” means high grade fever, severe coughing, sign of pneumonia on the CT scan (no matter how slight). “Moderate” cases by Chinese definition would require some medical attention, but not hospitalization.  “Serious” cases are those that require hospitalization, having difficulty breathing, low blood oxygen, etc.; “Critical” cases are those that require ICU care, suffering from organ failures. (In practice, of course, all positive cases in China are treated/isolated in hospitals.) I imagine a “moderate” case by Chinese definition is more likely than a “mild”  case (again by Chinese definition) to suffer from “Long COVID” symptoms, even if both are classified as “mild” in the rest of the world.

  45. 45.

    Peale

    @Matt McIrvin: What they really want is the bad habits they have to be revealed to be healthy, and if not, just offset by a little pill in the morning. And for poetic justice, the people who’ve spent time trying to get them to eat their leafy green vegetables to be proven wrong: French Fries are better than Kale! Eat a pound of dark chocolate a week and live forever! (That said, there’s a lot of the “Eat Your Kale” natural health crowd that is enamored with BS, that any time its met with a clear “not so fast, Earth Muffin” studies, even I take a little joy in it.)

    Anyway, if one did want to “boost your immunity”, sleep, moderate exercise, and hydration, probably rank above “get those vitamins in doses of 500% of your daily recommended allowance” in terms of effectiveness. There’s industries around all of those, but supplements and “detox” woo have bigger and louder microphones.

  46. 46.

    Brachiator

    @Peale:

    Anyway, if one did want to “boost your immunity”, sleep, moderate exercise, and hydration, probably rank above “get those vitamins in doses of 500% of your daily recommended allowance” in terms of effectiveness. There’s industries around all of those, but supplements and “detox” woo have bigger and louder microphones.

    There are people who believe that if a little bit of something is good for you, then a lot of it must be better.

    But it never made sense to me to think that taking more vitamins and supplements than you could ever get through normal eating could ever be worth a damn.

  47. 47.

    VOR

    Fun Fact: Derek Chauvin, the Minneapolis police officer convicted of killing George Floyd, was registered as a Florida resident despite working full time on the Minneapolis police force. That’s a heck of a commute.

  49. 49.

    Soprano2

    @Brachiator: Oh good grief, I didn’t say that no one who is vaccinated will get Covid. I personally think the emphasis on vaccinated people who get Covid is causing a lot of unnecessary anxiety among the vaccinated. The press is emphasizing the relatively rare cases of vaccinated people who get Covid rather than the more common case of the unvaccinated being put on ventilators and dying, because that’s what the press does. I wish I were surprised at the amount of vaccinated people I’ve seen on the internet say “even though I’m vaccinated I’m not changing a thing, masks and distancing forever are the way I’m going to live”, as if the vaccine is 0% effective at protecting them. I think people got the idea that the vaccine would be a 100% shield against ever getting Covid, and when that didn’t prove to be true people overreacted against it.

  50. 50.

    Soprano2

    @Brachiator: Well, we never had a statewide mask mandate in MO, so there’s that. I don’t think measures like that in the U.S. are practical or possible anyway, not at this point.

  51. 51.

    dopey-o

    Fun fact: Derek Chauvin, the Minneapolis police office … was registered as a Florida resident despite working full time on the Minneapolis police force.

    IRCC, Florida residents pay no personal state income tax. So, a swinish tax-cheating killer. Only the best people.

    Florida tax rates.

  52. 52.

    soapdish

    Played a show at Arlene’s Grocery in NYC on Saturday. I’m not immunocompromised, got my booster a few weeks ago, and proof of vaccination was required for entry. I was comfortable enough with that to go maskless along with the vast majority of other people. It was pretty nice.

    At a certain point we’re all going to have to figure out what our individual risk level tolerance is and it’s going to be different for everyone.

    I get tested for work every week, so I’ll let you know if this was a bad decision or not. :-)

  53. 53.

    Bill Arnold

    @ant:
    Probably not much. Just now skimmed the past couple of months of literature on COVID-19 and vitamin D. The main link that seems to keep showing up in studies is between case severity and vitamin D deficiency. There are a few negative metaanalyses, some of which look agenda driven, and a negative UK Biobank (aka large) study with some serious issues that weaken it, such as when the vitamin D levels were measured (~10 years earlier[2]), and problematic confounders. (And this study is included in (most?) metanalyses.) There are a few positive metanalyses as well.

    So, if you’re indoors because you’re at a high latitude and it’s winter, and you’re not getting much sun and not already taking an extra vitamin D, consider a supplement, often recommended in high latitude countries. Vitamin D deficiency is correlated (very possibly causally) with many sorts of morbidity, and Vit-D is very cheap to supplement; generally recommended to keep it (at or) below 4000 IU (100 micrograms) per day by health authorities.

    [1] sample critique: ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7271841/
    [2] “Baseline measurements, including 25(OH)D concentration and health status, were obtained a decade ago. It would be preferable to have measurements immediately preceding development of COVID-19. “

  54. 54.

    Bill Arnold

    @Matt McIrvin:

    If Trump had been reelected, we’d have inadequate vaccine supplies everywhere and the administration would probably low-key promote antivax stories to help imply that it didn’t matter.

    Alternatively, we would have armed right-wing door-to-door neighborhood vigilante squads making sure that everyone got vaccinated with the Trump vaccine. House arrest for the unpatriotic unvaccinated. Maybe even Patriotic Masking in areas with community spread. Vaccination rates would be 80% pushing 90%. A summer delta surge, already in play in India by the Jan 20 inauguration though perhaps not by the Nov 2020 election, would have been muted to about 18 percent of our reality in the US.

    The Republican Party is the party of mass homicide for political advantage. Seriously. This should be said to the faces of Republican acquaintances(/friends).

  55. 55.

    MrKite

    @Robert Sneddon: As a retired medical research molecular biologist that spent the last 15 years of my career working in an immunology focused institute, I can only say:

    Thank you

    For this cogent comment.

  56. 56.

    StringOnAStick

    @Matt McIrvin: On the other hand, Vitamin D deficiency is common the older you get, but testing for it isn’t part of a standard set of bloodwork for an annual physical unless you complain of fatigue.  By the time my chronically low D level was detected, I was told I was very close to having a heart attack; heart muscle uses calcium as part of the nerve conduction system for that specialized form of muscle, and without adequate D you don’t use calcium effectively.  In the many months of feeling increasingly crappy before this was discovered, I had 2 months where I couldn’t work because I had vertigo so bad I couldn’t walk down the hall without hands on both walls to stay oriented, much less drive to work.  It was due to a viral inner ear infection; my ENT later told me that low Vitamin D makes you more susceptible to viral infections in general.

    The moral of the story is your blood level of D should be checked each year and if you supplement, it needs to be monitored because it is a vitamin that is stored (fat soluble) instead of the excess being passed in urine (water soluble vitamins); too much is as bad as too little.  Two weeks after taking the levels of D recommended by my doctor, I emerged from the fog and vertigo.  I take 5,000 iu/day and that keeps my levels where the doctor wants them.

  57. 57.

    StringOnAStick

    @Brachiator: Comparisons with the flu are not as useful as some might think. Covid is its own thing. It is still mutating and developing its own behavior.

    Thank you for that.  Flu exhibits high rates of mutation, and what ended the 1918 pandemic is it mutated into a version similar enough to a recent but milder flu and therefore most people had immune systems that had already seen something similar enough to not go into full on systemic meltdown from immune system hyper responsiveness.  That hyper responsiveness is a characteristic of Covid in some people, but the structure of a flu virus is not at all similar to the virus that causes Covid.  So far it looks like Covid is good at mutating to become more infectious, not a great thing for anything except the Covid virus and bad news for mammals of all kinds.

  58. 58.

    J R in WV

    @StringOnAStick:

    The moral of the story is your blood level of D should be checked each year and if you supplement, it needs to be monitored because it is a vitamin that is stored (fat soluble) instead of the excess being passed in urine (water soluble vitamins); too much is as bad as too little.

    Our family doc instructed us to take Vitamin D, and does blood work quarterly to be sure we have enough. He is board certified Family Practice AND gerontologist.

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