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You are here: Home / Open Threads / It’s the Stupid That Kills

It’s the Stupid That Kills

by $8 blue check mistermix|  November 19, 202112:12 pm| 84 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

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Two pieces of COVID news:

First, Josh Marshall wrote a piece titled No More Dying of Covid where he discusses the new treatments from Merck and Pfizer, which were approved today. The key point that supports his thesis:

Merck’s pill (molnupiravir) reduced the risk of hospitalization by 50% if taken within 5 days of symptom onset; Pfizer’s pill (paxlovid) reduced the risk of hospitalization by 85% if taken with 5 days onset and 89% if taken within three days.

Both treatments showed 100% efficacy against death.

Second, the CDC released a study [via LGM] which shows that the non-vaccinated died of non-COVID illness a lot more than the vaccinated:

After excluding COVID-19–associated deaths, overall SMRs [Standardized Mortality Rates] after dose 1 were 0.42 and 0.37 per 100 person-years for Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, respectively, and were 0.35 and 0.34, respectively, after dose 2 (Table 2). These rates were lower than the rate of 1.11 per 100 person-years among the unvaccinated mRNA vaccine comparison group (p <0.001). Among Janssen vaccine recipients, the overall SMR was 0.84 per 100 person-years, lower than the rate of 1.47 per 100 person-years among the unvaccinated comparison group (p <0.001).

In other words, in the period of December 14, 2020 to July 31, 2021, an unvaccinated person was at roughly twice to three times more likely to die of something other than COVID than a vaccinated person. This was a large cohort study that tried to adjust for factors like sex, age and ethnicity.

My unscientific, purely anecdotal time spent perusing the Herman Cain Awards leads me to believe that Josh Marshall is being a little too optimistic about the impact of the Pfizer and Merck drugs. This isn’t because the anti-vaxx population won’t take those drugs — they’re willing to take antibody infusions, after all. Rather, it’s because a good part of the unvaccinated population either can’t or won’t look for medical care in the first few days of onset of COVID.

A typical Herman Cain recipient’s course of illness begins with denial. By the time they’re sick enough to believe that the Ivermectin, bleach and vitamins aren’t working, they’re really sick. So the 100% efficacy against death in a pharma company study that used subjects who were recently diagnosed probably won’t be the real-world outcome of using these drugs. There ain’t no cure for stupid, and the stupid with COVID are going to be hard to cure.

The good news is that doctors have a tool that they can use with the vaccinated immunocompromised and elderly who contract COVID. I hope it works for them, if they can get past the unvaxxed assholes clogging up our medical system.

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Previous Post: « COVID, disparities and risk adjustment
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Reader Interactions

84Comments

  1. 1.

    Jerzy Russian

    November 19, 2021 at 12:17 pm

    If someone won’t get a vaccine because it is “experimental”, then why would they take an “experimental” pill?   On the other hand, strict adherence to consistency is not a strong point of most of these people.

  2. 2.

    West of the Rockies

    November 19, 2021 at 12:18 pm

    May I be less-than-sympathetic?  The further good news is fewer stupids.

  3. 3.

    Raoul Paste

    November 19, 2021 at 12:19 pm

    The national TV ad writes itself  here.

    Explain briefly and simply why a quick response can save your life.  It’s not a panacea, but it will save some lives

  4. 4.

    Mary G

    November 19, 2021 at 12:23 pm

    I’m happy as an immune comprised elder who’s been bummed out by the “we just have to get over the Covid and get on with our lives” decision.

  5. 5.

    Roger Moore

    November 19, 2021 at 12:26 pm

    I’m skeptical of that CDC study. It sounds as if they counted a COVID death as any death occurring within a month of diagnosis with COVID. That’s very broad as far as it goes, but my impression is that a lot of people who die of COVID take more than a month between diagnosis and death, so it might be including a lot of COVID deaths in their supposedly non-COVID category. In any case, I want some people who know a lot more about this kind of thing to look at the study to find if there are any other mistakes.

  6. 6.

    Another Scott

    November 19, 2021 at 12:26 pm

    There was a radio blurb about the US buying $XB worth of the Pfizer pills (even though it’s not approved yet). It’s good to plan ahead. The newsreader mentioned that it works out to $550 per course per patient. It is a bargain compared to the free ($30 to the government) vaccine!!11ONE.

    :-/

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  7. 7.

    brendancalling

    November 19, 2021 at 12:26 pm

    “A typical Herman Cain recipient’s course of illness begins with denial. By the time they’re sick enough to believe that the Ivermectin, bleach and vitamins aren’t working, they’re really sick. So the 100% efficacy against death in a pharma company study that used subjects who were recently diagnosed probably won’t be the real-world outcome of using these drugs. There ain’t no cure for stupid, and the stupid with COVID are going to be hard to cure.”

    At the risk of sounding callous, who gives a flying fuck? More and more of us are vaccinated and boostered everyday. As I understand it (correct me if I’m wrong), this means I could still get an unpleasant breakthrough case, but it won’t kill me. Everyone I know, except for a few people I don’t care all that much about, is vaccinated and boostered.

    These are the people showing up and threatening school boards and teachers—in other words, threatening people like ME. They threaten doctors and nurses—in other words, people like my son’s mother. They get confrontational with ordinary people wearing a mask in the grocery, and cough on them deliberately. I saw one clip on Reddit where two of these stupid assholes went onto a cafe without masks, who after being told to leave by the manager, assaulted her with a bat the manager had for protection, and wound up getting arrested themselves.

    Higher mortality rate for those fuckers and their ilk? Bring. It. On. The sooner those plague rats expire, the better.

  8. 8.

    Suzanne

    November 19, 2021 at 12:27 pm

    @Jerzy Russian: 

    If someone won’t get a vaccine because it is “experimental”, then why would they take an “experimental” pill?

    If the drugs become associated with liburulz, they won’t take them.
    Interpret every action through the lens of personal branding and much more becomes clear.

  9. 9.

    rikyrah

    November 19, 2021 at 12:27 pm

    Second, the CDC released a study [via LGM] which shows that the non-vaccinated died of non-COVID illness a lot more than the vaccinated:

     

    duh

  10. 10.

    artem1s

    November 19, 2021 at 12:28 pm

    @Jerzy Russian:

    If someone won’t get a vaccine because it is “experimental”, then why would they take an “experimental” pill?

    Josh is in complete denial about his constituents. The only thing they will learn from the Pfizer pill study is the it’s perfectly OK to believe alternate treatments will work. There will be even more of them filing lawsuits to force hospitals to provide whatever quack, snake-oil treatment their f*ckbook friends or their Great Orange God is hustling that week.

  11. 11.

    Kelly

    November 19, 2021 at 12:30 pm

    Are Covid tests still hard to get? Test need to be available and cheap to confirm that crud you feel is from the nasty corona virus and not last night’s Corona.

  12. 12.

    Citizen Alan

    November 19, 2021 at 12:32 pm

    @Jerzy Russian:  A certain percentage of them won’t get vaxed because they are absolute babies about getting shots but are embarrassed to admit that’s the reason.  I have a nephew who I had to shame into getting vaccinated by reminding him that I’m diabetic and give myself 4 shots every day.

  13. 13.

    Cacti

    November 19, 2021 at 12:34 pm

    Republicans believe Herman Cain got sent to live on a farm upstate.

  14. 14.

    Wvng

    November 19, 2021 at 12:35 pm

    @brendancalling: We have to care about it because they are breaking health care systems and health care workers, and also contributing to the prevalence of virus in communities.

  15. 15.

    Scout211

    November 19, 2021 at 12:36 pm

    This article caught my attention earlier this week.  A Florida teacher died of COVID-19 in the hospital.  Her husband is now suing the hospital for not approving her treatment with Ivermectin.

    A Florida teacher who drew national attention for trying to get a hospital to administer her ivermectin died from COVID-19 symptoms last Friday.
    Tamara Drock, 47, of Loxahatchee, Florida, died 12 weeks after being admitted to Palm Beach Gardens Medical Center for treatment. Her husband, Ryan Drock, sued the hospital last month in an attempt to require it to administer ivermectin, a drug approved by the FDA only to treat conditions caused by parasitic worms but not COVID-19.
    “I’m hoping they name a law after her so no one has to go through this,” Ryan Drock told The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Network. “If she had walked out of the hospital, she could have had the medication.”
     

    He had sued earlier to get the hospital to prescribe it but the hospital refused and they won in court.

    Palm Beach County Circuit Judge James Nutt rejected the initial lawsuit last month. But Ryan Drock is still blaming the hospital and plans to continue pursuing legal action.

     

    His attorney is suing because maybe, just maybe, the Ivermectin could have saved her, maybe.

    Huxtable added that under Florida law the suit can continue after Tamara’s death because of the large-scale debate at hand.

    “We don’t know if (the drug) would have saved her life, but it could have,” he said. “Maybe it wouldn’t have done anything, but we’re pursuing the case strictly from a legal perspective. Every person in Florida has a constitutional right to choose what is done with their own body.”

     

    So let me get this straight.  The scientifically-proven vaccinations, social distancing and masking can save lives but are refused.  And the fact that ivermectin could maybe, maybe not have made a difference for this woman’s survival is grounds to sue in Florida?

    I am so confused. (Maybe, maybe not).

  16. 16.

    Roger Moore

    November 19, 2021 at 12:37 pm

    @Another Scott:

    The newsreader mentioned that it works out to $550 per course per patient. It is a bargain compared to the free ($30 to the government) vaccine!!11ONE.

    It’s obviously not a bargain compared to the vaccine, but it’s a bargain compared to a hospitalization or a death.  If it is really effective at preventing death, it makes COVID a lot less scary.  Anything that gets us closer to normality is good.

  17. 17.

    Wvng

    November 19, 2021 at 12:37 pm

    “it’s because a good part of the unvaccinated population either can’t or won’t look for medical care in the first few days of onset of COVID.”

    Bingo. I discussed this with a doctor friend and this is exactly what is happening.

  18. 18.

    Steeplejack

    November 19, 2021 at 12:38 pm

    @Kelly:

    I picked up two two-packs of the BinaxNow test at CVS when I got my booster (and flu shot) on November 8. Dunno how many they had in stock, because they were stashed behind the front counter. Only knew to ask up front because the pharmacist who gave me my shots said they had them in stock when I asked him.

  19. 19.

    matt

    November 19, 2021 at 12:39 pm

    These human wave type attacks on Biden’s COVID numbers are I suppose just a consequence of the ‘quiverfull’ ethic, where you can always just pop out more brats if you lose some foot soldiers.

  20. 20.

    trollhattan

    November 19, 2021 at 12:39 pm

    @Another Scott: ​The math becomes eye-popping once you start comparing those costs to the cost of hospitalization, then ICU occupancy. (Not to mention the opportunity cost of filling the ICUs with covid patients.)

  21. 21.

    Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix

    November 19, 2021 at 12:39 pm

    @Kelly:

    Are Covid tests still hard to get?

    They are freely available and pretty easy to get.  You can also buy a two-pack of the rapid BinaxNow test at Walmart for $14.  Those have a higher false negative rate than the PCR test but positive tests are pretty reliable.

    The problem is people who don’t believe in COVID don’t get tested.

  22. 22.

    Hungry Joe

    November 19, 2021 at 12:40 pm

    @Suzanne: Let’s call Pfizer’s pill “The Biden Solution” and Merck’s pill “The AOC Special,” and see who takes it.

    Hey, it’s just a suggestion.

  23. 23.

    trollhattan

    November 19, 2021 at 12:40 pm

    @Cacti: “With a nice family of country Klansmen.”

  24. 24.

    jonas

    November 19, 2021 at 12:41 pm

    @Scout211: Wait, so if your loved one dies of cancer, you can sue the hospital for not having given laetrile a shot?

  25. 25.

    dopey-o

    November 19, 2021 at 12:44 pm

    The obvious conclusion from the non-Covid death study is this: the difference between vaxxed and unvaxxed is the degree of attachment to reality.

    Vaxxed Americans see contagion and deaths as a serious issue, and react in a rational manner.

    Vax refusers reject the reality of hospitalizations and deaths. They suffer a delusional world-view. They think they are soldiers in a new civil war.

    God help us all.

  26. 26.

    Edmund Dantes

    November 19, 2021 at 12:44 pm

    It really is amazing the medical miracles that science has popped out in a short amount of time to deal with a novel virus, and we are still having people die from it that shouldn’t.

    The timetable is insane. And yet for naught cause a political party has decided its better to rule in ruin than serve in paradise.

  27. 27.

    trollhattan

    November 19, 2021 at 12:44 pm

    @Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix: The kid came down with cold symptoms on Monday and we yel uh, gently suggested she get tested just to make sure (she had the J&J vaccine). Goes to campus clinic, gets rapid test, learns it’s not covid so just a cold. All in the same day. NB Her college has 97-98% vaccination among students, faculty, staff.

    This stuff could be easy for everybody if there weren’t fifty-million folks who are basically rooting for the virus to slay their Democrat enemies whilst leaving them alone.

  28. 28.

    JoyceH

    November 19, 2021 at 12:45 pm

    There are also a variety of different brands of at home tests on Amazon.

  29. 29.

    jonas

    November 19, 2021 at 12:46 pm

    So what exactly is the theory behind Invermectin being a legit treatment for Covid anyway? Covid is a respiratory illness caused by a virus. How does an anti-parasitic drug designed to treat the digestive tract — even the version designed for human patients, much less livestock — figure into this? Even remotely?

    It’s like trying to treat your stomach ulcers with a skin lotion.

  30. 30.

    trnc

    November 19, 2021 at 12:47 pm

    My unscientific, purely anecdotal time spent perusing the Herman Cain Awards leads me to believe that Josh Marshall is being a little too optimistic about the impact of the Pfizer and Merck drugs. This isn’t because the anti-vaxx population won’t take those drugs — they’re willing to take antibody infusions, after all. Rather, it’s because a good part of the unvaccinated population either can’t or won’t look for medical care in the first few days of onset of COVID.

    I’m betting on Josh, and that we’ll see a significant drop in the daily covid death rate by March. The absolute die-hard anti-vaxxers appear to go down in number as the months pass, and I suspect even some of them are all talk – they’ll yell and scream publicly, but they’ve already been vaccinated. Some of the diehards who wind up in the hospital may also still be saved by the med. It’s not like they’re in a position to demand ivermectin or anything else.​
     

    ETA: Based on currently known strains. All bets are off if we see a new strain that is resistant to the current vax and meds.

  31. 31.

    VOR

    November 19, 2021 at 12:49 pm

    @Citizen Alan:  After seeing a family member die from cancer, I tell myself I have absolutely no right to complain about a shot or a blood draw.

  32. 32.

    Roger Moore

    November 19, 2021 at 12:51 pm

    @jonas:

    Wait, so if your loved one dies of cancer, you can sue the hospital for not having given laetrile a shot?

    You can sue for just about anything.  Whether you’ll win or not is another question.

  33. 33.

    Another Scott

    November 19, 2021 at 12:53 pm

    @Roger Moore: @trollhattan:

    Yes, it’s cheaper than the alternative. And it’s a good thing. One of the big problems in this pandemic has been lack of effective treatments.

    But my unstated main point was that the vaccines work just as well for the vast majority of cases. These pills keep one out of the hospital and keep one from dying like the vaccines do. And the vaccines last for months (I assume this treatment is for immediate needs and isn’t long-lasting). Yes, they’re important – especially for those with compromised immune systems or those who legitimately cannot take the vaccine – but in the vast majority of cases the vaccine is still the better route.

    At least that’s my understanding at this point.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  34. 34.

    Roger Moore

    November 19, 2021 at 12:53 pm

    @jonas: ​
     

    So what exactly is the theory behind Invermectin being a legit treatment for Covid anyway?

    IIRC, a lot of these compounds will kill the virus in a petri dish. That’s pretty meaningless, but it’s enough for people who are desperate to latch onto it. Also, too, there are fraudsters who will try to buy up a bunch of medicine and then talk it up as a cure in hopes the price will spike and they can make a bunch of money selling it. These two things naturally go hand in hand.

  35. 35.

    delk

    November 19, 2021 at 12:55 pm

    How many people are going to feel better on day three and not finish the full five days?

  36. 36.

    Roger Moore

    November 19, 2021 at 12:55 pm

    @Another Scott: ​
     
    My feeling is that one of the benefits of the pill is that it can be given to people who get breakthrough cases. That makes things a bit less scary. People who are still putting off activities that involve going to crowded indoor spaces (e.g. watching movies at the theater, eating indoors in a restaurant) may now be comfortable enough to try those things again.

  37. 37.

    dmsilev

    November 19, 2021 at 12:56 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    IIRC, a lot of these compounds will kill the virus in a petri dish.

    Obligatory: https://xkcd.com/1217/

    (finally, a mandate that this Supreme Court might approve of)

  38. 38.

    burnspbesq

    November 19, 2021 at 12:57 pm

    @Another Scott:

    I would be perfectly ok if the pills (which are easier to distribute and administer) become an instrument of foreign policy, compensating for our failure or inability to use the vaccines that way.

    I’m also ok with the Gubmint “overpaying,” because it means that the companies can license to poorer countries on reasonable terms without a shareholder freak-out over “foregone profits.” It’s effectively a bribe to buy the silence of assholes like Varney and Bartiromo.

  39. 39.

    VOR

    November 19, 2021 at 12:58 pm

    @jonas: So what exactly is the theory behind Invermectin being a legit treatment for Covid anyway? Covid is a respiratory illness caused by a virus. How does an anti-parasitic drug designed to treat the digestive tract — even the version designed for human patients, much less livestock — figure into this? Even remotely?

    Beats the hell out of me. My guess, and only a guess, is they started w/Hydroxychloroquine as the solution. That’s used to treat malaria, a parasitic infection. So clearly something similar would also work. Wikipedia says there were studies showing that extremely high doses of Ivermectin could inhibit COVID-19 virus replication in vitro. So a kernal of truth.

    But the doses needed were far higher than a human could tolerate. And working in a test tube or petri dish is not the same as working in actual people.

    I think you fundamentally start with the assumption that the CDC, the WHO, the NIH, the FDA, and more are all lying to you. But Newsmax, OAN, and a meme on Facebook know the truth.

  40. 40.

    dmsilev

    November 19, 2021 at 12:58 pm

    We still need much better (and cheaper) supply of rapid tests. As I understand it, the FDA has been quite conservative in terms of what they’ll approve, which is why the over-the-counter antigen tests are a lot cheaper in Europe than here.

  41. 41.

    Brachiator

    November 19, 2021 at 12:59 pm

    Merck’s pill (molnupiravir) reduced the risk of hospitalization by 50% if taken within 5 days of symptom onset; Pfizer’s pill (paxlovid) reduced the risk of hospitalization by 85% if taken with 5 days onset and 89% if taken within three days.

    I always wonder how easy it is to correctly recognize symptom onset. Some people may have a flu or a bad cold and take the drug. Also, I wonder how easy it would be for the average person to fill a prescription after symptom onset?

    Is there a good, cheap home test for Covid?

    However, I DO think that this will appeal to a good chunk of the anti-vaxx crowd. There are people who strangely distrust vaccines, but do trust pills. Hell, some of them will happily gobble down worthless supplements just because of vague promises of efficacy.

    ETA: I recently watched a clip of a CNN story about two men who contracted Covid-19. Both were hospitalized and had severe respiratory problems.  They both survived but are still battling effects of the disease. One man noted how he has lost friends who are angry that he decided to get the vaccine. It is just wild to see how some anti-vaxx fools persist in their nonsense even after people they know come down with Covid.

    This is a strange death cult.

  42. 42.

    Repatriated

    November 19, 2021 at 1:01 pm

    @jonas:

     

    So what exactly is the theory behind Invermectin being a legit treatment for Covid anyway?

    Theory? Theories are for sheeple who aren’t smart enough to do their own research.

    Explanation? I vaguely recall that it recently came out that one of the “positive” ivermectin trials was done in rural India where intestinal parasites are not uncommon. Resisting Covid with the added burden of intestinal parasites would be a significantly more difficult, and clearing them out could increase relative survival rates.

    Doesn’t mean it does anything to the virus, though.  Just something for the anti-sci crowd to latch onto.

  43. 43.

    brendancalling

    November 19, 2021 at 1:03 pm

    @brendancalling: ​
     

    I’ve been saying for some time now that someone should figure out the equivalent of field hospitals for covid patients, so they stop taking up all the beds. Like a MASH unit.

    Personally, I’d just as soon not treat them and send them home (or to Joe Rogan’s house, since he seems to be the expert, or to their church where they can have all the prayer warriors their hearts desire). But since that’s not an option, and they’re going to keep flooding hospitals, something will have to be done eventually.

  44. 44.

    Cermet

    November 19, 2021 at 1:03 pm

    @jonas: The story is simple – as is the case for third world doctors, meds are difficult to obtain so they try a shot gun approach (like a parasitic med which is commonly used in the third world to great results relative to parasites) – use any med available during an illness and see if it has a beneficial effect. One such doctor thought they did and published the results. Then others noted the study was not rigorous and had many other flaws. After care review it was withdrawn by said doctor but too late. The internet (likely russian trolls) spread the falsehood far and wide. I watched this whole incident from start to today.

  45. 45.

    Kelly

    November 19, 2021 at 1:04 pm

    @Steeplejack:

    @Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix:

    Thanks! I should keep some on hand.

  46. 46.

    HeleninEire

    November 19, 2021 at 1:06 pm

    There’s a verdict in the Rittenhouse trial.

  47. 47.

    SiubhanDuinne

    November 19, 2021 at 1:07 pm

    Rittenhouse verdict has been reached.

  48. 48.

    burnspbesq

    November 19, 2021 at 1:07 pm

    @jonas:

    I forget who said that a complaint is just a tweet with a filing fee, but that person is extremely wise (and, I might add, appropriately cynical).

  49. 49.

    Cermet

    November 19, 2021 at 1:08 pm

    @trnc: Highly and I mean highly unlikely any covid virus will become immune to both those meds. Those meds work at a very fundamental level within the cell against the only methods viruses like covid use to reproduce. Also, the two meds use completely different processes.

  50. 50.

    Betty Cracker

    November 19, 2021 at 1:09 pm

    Anyone care to make a guess what that verdict is? I’ve been assuming the smirking punk would get away with it, but the length of the deliberations made me wonder.

  51. 51.

    guachi

    November 19, 2021 at 1:10 pm

    @Betty Cracker: I go with not guilty of all charges or guilty of shooting whoever didn’t have the gun or skateboard.

     

    My understanding is there were lots of lesser included charges and multiple shooting victims so that’s lots of options to go through

  52. 52.

    Ken

    November 19, 2021 at 1:12 pm

    the CDC released a study which shows that the non-vaccinated died of non-COVID illness a lot more than the vaccinated:

    Poisonous cynic that I am, I have to wonder if they considered that some states may be trying to make their numbers look better by categorizing COVID deaths as flu, or COPD, or renal failure, or bus accidents.

  53. 53.

    SiubhanDuinne

    November 19, 2021 at 1:13 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

    i think he might get the three lesser counts

    ETA And boy was i wrong

  54. 54.

    Buskertype

    November 19, 2021 at 1:13 pm

    A typical Herman Cain recipient’s course of illness begins with denial. By the time they’re sick enough to believe that the Ivermectin, bleach and vitamins aren’t working, they’re really sick.

    I’m a volunteer contact tracer at my local health department and I see this a LOT.  It also tends to inflate the relative numbers of breakthrough cases because the vaccinated folks get tested as soon as they feel a tickle in their throat while the unvaccinated often don’t get tested until they wind up at the ER. I’ve talked to prominent local politicians who fall into this category, but I take my non-disclosure agreement seriously so I haven’t even told my wife who they are

  55. 55.

    HeleninEire

    November 19, 2021 at 1:14 pm

    Not guilty on all counts.

  56. 56.

    JWR

    November 19, 2021 at 1:15 pm

    Not Guilty

    Not Guilty

    Not Guilty

    Not Guilty

    Judge sounds very happy. Fucker.

  57. 57.

    JustRuss

    November 19, 2021 at 1:15 pm

    There is one cure for stupid.  One-hundred percent effective, and very, very permanent.

  58. 58.

    Ken

    November 19, 2021 at 1:16 pm

    @jonas: So what exactly is the theory behind Invermectin being a legit treatment for Covid anyway?

    I don’t know if it’s a theory as such, but “I can get people to pay me money for writing a prescription for ivermectin” seems to cover a lot of it.

  59. 59.

    SiubhanDuinne

    November 19, 2021 at 1:16 pm

    So here comes a groovy Congressional internship with Matt Gaetz and a sweet, lucrative Fox News gig.

    Not unexpected, but I feel sick.

  60. 60.

    Brachiator

    November 19, 2021 at 1:16 pm

    @Cermet:

    The story is simple – as is the case for third world doctors, meds are difficult to obtain so they try a shot gun approach (like a parasitic med which is commonly used in the third world to great results relative to parasites) – use any med available during an illness and see if it has a beneficial effect. One such doctor thought they did and published the results.

    Part of this was also charlatans deliberately looking for a drug that was good for one thing and falsely ascribing it as a cure for Covid.

    Some the “research” supporting these alternative drugs were clearly fabricated.

  61. 61.

    Kay

    November 19, 2021 at 1:18 pm

    @HeleninEire:

    Yeah, I’m sorry about it. It’s open season on anyone. If you have a weapon you make the rules, and everyone else must comply.

    Anyone strutting down the street with their gun is “the law” now. Comply, submit, or they’ll shoot you.

    We’ll see more of this. The vigilantes are going to take it as a license to attack anyone.

  62. 62.

    Anonymous At Work

    November 19, 2021 at 1:20 pm

    Can someone walk me through the methodology used to determine if a death was COVID-related or not-COVID-related?  Like @Roger Moore, I have doubts and suspicions about how the CDC did that counting.

  63. 63.

    Kay

    November 19, 2021 at 1:20 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    It is sickening. There’s another Right wing vigilante trial happening now. I hope Rittenhouse getting rewarded for killing these people doesn’t also infect that case.

  64. 64.

    Brachiator

    November 19, 2021 at 1:29 pm

    @Kay:

    Yeah, I’m sorry about it. It’s open season on anyone. If you have a weapon you make the rules, and everyone else must comply.

    This rule only applies to white people.

  65. 65.

    jnfr

    November 19, 2021 at 1:32 pm

    @Scout211: ​

    Seems to me that legally they need to find a doctor who will prescribe the horse paste. Can’t imagine doctors can be forced into a specific treatment, but a patient can choose to change doctors.

  66. 66.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    November 19, 2021 at 1:40 pm

    I can’t say I’m surprised at the  verdict. I’m dismayed by it though

  67. 67.

    eclare

    November 19, 2021 at 1:46 pm

    @Kelly:   I picked up two boxes of the Binax test (each box contains two tests) at Walgreens about a week ago.  I figured home tests might become hard to find over the holidays.

  68. 68.

    Spanky

    November 19, 2021 at 1:48 pm

    @dopey-o:

    Vax refusers reject the reality of hospitalizations and deaths. They suffer a delusional world-view. They think they are soldiers in a new civil war.

    God help us all.

    He’s winnowing the field of idiots. What more do you want from Him?

  69. 69.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 19, 2021 at 2:02 pm

    @Roger Moore: I haven’t studied the paper in detail, but the big red flag for me just from the summaries is that for half of the study period, the vaccines were not widely available. So vaccinated vs. unvaccinated deaths would have a huge seasonal component– people would be much more likely to be unvaccinated in the winter, before anyone could even get the vaccines. I would think that seasonal effect would be at least as important as any difference between people who will or will not voluntarily get vaccinated. Lots of causes of death are themselves seasonal.

  70. 70.

    PAM Dirac

    November 19, 2021 at 2:05 pm

    the new treatments from Merck and Pfizer, which were approved today.

    Has anyone found a citation for this. I didn’t see anything on FDA’s website except a notice that the advisory committee for the Merck application meets Nov 30. The Pfizer application was submitted a few days ago, so I don’t think an advisory meeting is even scheduled yet. I did see a note that the European advisory committee has recommended approval for the Merck drug today.

  71. 71.

    Fair Economist

    November 19, 2021 at 2:29 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    @jonas: ​

    So what exactly is the theory behind Invermectin being a legit treatment for Covid anyway?

    IIRC, a lot of these compounds will kill the virus in a petri dish. That’s pretty meaningless, but it’s enough for people who are desperate to latch onto it. Also, too, there are fraudsters who will try to buy up a bunch of medicine and then talk it up as a cure in hopes the price will spike and they can make a bunch of money selling it. These two things naturally go hand in hand.

    That is *exactly* how it started, but there’s more to the story. There was a study showing Ivermectin interfered with viral replication in a test tube. I saw it when it came out, and calculated that the concentration used would need a lethal oral dose in a person even with 100% absorption. (An easy calc; lots of other did the same). I participated in some discussions at the time turning on things like whether it might be useful at a lower dose (I pointed out the researchers can do math too, and the fact that they didn’t report any tests at the lower dose, even though the test would have taken only a few days, is pretty strong evidence it doesn’t.)

    But, a few months later some studies came out claiming Ivermectin was very effective against COVID. These studies were quickly revealed as outrageously fraudulent – all dead patients were enrolled before the study started, and much of the data was copy-paste repeats of particular patients. Those studies were then used to sell Ivermectin at inflated prices by the bogus medical groups that were trumpeting them. Obviously some of these groups paid the researchers to produce the bogus sciences; there is some fraud in science for prestige, but never so blatant; there’s no reason to do that kind of things except as part of a scam. Just one group made more than 9 million in a few months pushing the Ivermectin crap; that will pay for a lot of fraudulent studies by unknown people in the Third World (Egypt and Argentina in this case).

    At this point I’ve become extremely suspicious of any medical study not performed under the auspices of a major Western regulatory agency or a highly respected center like Mayo, Cleveland Clinic, etc. The financial gain from fraud is literally orders of magnitude greater than the costs of a fake study; often easily enough for a lifetime of comfort for a scammer, so people will be willing to give up their careers to do it.

  72. 72.

    Fair Economist

    November 19, 2021 at 2:41 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    I’m skeptical of that CDC study. It sounds as if they counted a COVID death as any death occurring within a month of diagnosis with COVID. That’s very broad as far as it goes, but my impression is that a lot of people who die of COVID take more than a month between diagnosis and death, so it might be including a lot of COVID deaths in their supposedly non-COVID category. In any case, I want some people who know a lot more about this kind of thing to look at the study to find if there are any other mistakes.

    Very true, and indeed there’s that British study showing patients hospitalized for COVID were 2 or 3 times more like to die in the next 6 months as patients hospitalized for other causes. But in that case the death rate for COVID is 2 or 3 times the reported rate, and that would be significant too.

    My take is that the study is basically correct, because if COVID had *that* much delayed death, then no country would report COVID deaths in the neighborhood of excess death; excess would be much higher. But in most Western countries they’re pretty close; and some of the differences are understandable losses. I have a friend who’s a cop and during the height of the CA epidemic last Christmas she said she was responding to wellness calls and finding dead people almost every *day*. Generally those deaths weren’t reported as COVID, since there was no medical history done.

    My personal hypothesis is that people who are idiots about COVID are idiots about other things. I have an example in my son, who is antivax. He is *also* having trouble with dehydration because he refuses to drink any water from the tap and doesn’t have enough money to buy bottled water anymore. Add in goofy eating and taking meds bought from unreliable sources and “colon cleanses” and who knows what else and I find it very plausible such people have elevated risks of death.

  73. 73.

    Obvious Russian Troll

    November 19, 2021 at 2:43 pm

    @brendancalling: While I won’t disagree with you, there are two things to keep in mind. First, non-COVID patients will die if the hospitals fills up.

    Second, your odds are significantly better than a non-vaccinated person but a breakthrough case can still kill you if you’re unhealthy or unlucky. Most of the vaccinated people dying of COVID are elderly or have other health risks; my mother-in-law’s nursing home lost a few vaccinated residents. However, I also know somebody whose theoretically healthy brother-in-law passed away from a breakthrough case.

  74. 74.

    Chief Oshkosh

    November 19, 2021 at 2:59 pm

    @Kelly:

    Are Covid tests still hard to get? Test need to be available and cheap to confirm that crud you feel is from the nasty corona virus and not last night’s CASE OF Corona.

    Fixed that for you. Even people on antibuse won’t get sick from one Corona, the Coors Lite of Mexican beer.

    But yes, your point is well-taken. If you don’t have a reliable self-test in-home, then you’ll miss the window.

  75. 75.

    dopey-o

    November 19, 2021 at 3:15 pm

    @Spanky: He’s (God) winnowing the field of idiots. What more do you want from Him?

    A Covid variant that tests for IQ, then kills the host before spreading.

    FAAFO as a wise woman once wrote.

  76. 76.

    Butter Emails!!!

    November 19, 2021 at 3:18 pm

    Hmm. Needs something catchy. Wear a mask, social distance, get your Faucci ouchie and if you get sick make sure to take your Pelosi pills.

  77. 77.

    Peale

    November 19, 2021 at 3:22 pm

    On the study – it would be interesting to see if the unvaccinated were actually dying of a different mix of causes than the vaccinated as well. I think one of the pools that they would capture and need to control for are people who already had diagnosed terminal diseases. More likely to die and they wouldn’t be distributed evenly between the two groups. Like if in January you were already dying of stage 4 cancer, would you actually run out to get the vaccine?

    I’m hoping that the studies on the new meds will show some effectiveness for vaccinated people who have breakthrough cases. Probably won’t be as effective as for the unvaxxinated, but if they are, that’s a huge weight off my “concerned about breakthrough” self.  Time will tell. My concern is that like invermectin, the unvaxxed will load up on them and use them as prophylaxis. Which will mean they will remain controlled. Its always been the limit of Tamiflu that you have to schedule the appointment to get a prescription. To be honestly effective, these meds will need to be taken while waiting for test results.

  78. 78.

    Searcher

    November 19, 2021 at 3:24 pm

    Note the 100% efficacy against death is based on small amounts of data — like 7-8 people in the control groups died in the trials, none in the test groups.

    So it might be 100% effective, it might just be like 85-95% effective against death.

  79. 79.

    bluefoot

    November 19, 2021 at 3:42 pm

    @Kelly: ​
      Where I live it depends very much on the locality. In my town, getting a PCR test is difficult. The next town over has free walk in testing if you live or work there. Rapid tests are becoming easier to find in pharmacies.

  80. 80.

    Obvious Russian Troll

    November 19, 2021 at 3:52 pm

    @jonas:

    Reuse of a drug for another purpose is not uncommon. While hydroxychloroquine was developed for malaria, it was later discovered that it helped with lupus. Before anybody did any studies on it, it was certainly possible that ivermectin’s in vitro action against COVID might work on actual patients. (Whether or not testing ivermectin was the best use of resources is another issue.)

    Having said that, once people started doing studies it eventually became obvious that it didn’t help.

    I have seen some speculation that Ivermectin actually did help some COVID patients in the third world–by killing parasites they were unaware they had–and which would in turn have hurt their odds of survival. This may be bullshit, though.

  81. 81.

    Starfish

    November 19, 2021 at 5:57 pm

    You are tap dancing on something important here and missing it completely.

    A person who does not get medical care within the first few days of having a disease may have medical access issues like not having insurance and fearing that touching the medical system will be expensive, like living far away from medical care, like living far away from medical care and having no access to transportation. It is not just denial.

    A homeless woman who had her baby outside without medical assistance died near me not long ago. Police had spoken to her. They had driven her to a medical facility. The medical place told her to come back.

    It is not clear if the mom and baby froze to death or suffered a medical event in labor and delivery.

  82. 82.

    dopey-o

    November 19, 2021 at 6:37 pm

    @Starfish: A homeless woman who had her baby outside without medical assistance died near me not long ago. Police had spoken to her. They had driven her to a medical facility. The medical place told her to come back.

    It is not clear if the mom and baby froze to death or suffered a medical event in labor and delivery.

    This is without a doubt the worst and saddest thing i have heard in months. Because I live in a red (family values!) state that has adamantly refused Medicaid Expansion, I wonder if this family would have been saved by Medicaid?

    (Because that’s sorta the whole reason for Medicaid.)

  83. 83.

    John Harrold

    November 19, 2021 at 6:58 pm

    My sister is an ICU nurse in Arkansas and this is 100% correct:

    This isn’t because the anti-vaxx population won’t take those drugs — they’re willing to take antibody infusions, after all. Rather, it’s because a good part of the unvaccinated population either can’t or won’t look for medical care in the first few days of onset of COVID.

  84. 84.

    Another Scott

    November 19, 2021 at 8:41 pm

    @eclare: Thanks for the reminder.  I’ve been meaning to get some at-home tests for a while.  I finally ordered a couple of boxes of Binax Now.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

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