As the newest COVID-19 variant winds its way around the globe, U.S. health officials said the ban starting Monday on most travelers who have been in southern Africa should buy time to assess any new risk https://t.co/umLJ4LBEBx pic.twitter.com/MK1GpYVtNv
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 29, 2021
If you’re reading this, you’re probably already doing as much as can be done to avoid an ‘OMG Omicron’ infection. The existing rules remain good advice: Get vaccinated, get boosters as necessary, mask up, stay socially distant, and avoid crowds as far as you can. Until scientists know more — which will take some days, if not weeks — the greatest impact will probably be on travellers who made plans for the year-end holidays. (Those who are once again going to be deprived of seeing loved ones have my sympathy, but that’s life during a pandemic… )
"#Fauci informed #POTUS that while it will take approx 2 more wks to have definitive info on the transmissibility, severity & other characteristics of the #OmicronVariant he conts to believe that existing #vaccines provide a degree of protection against severe" #COVID19 . https://t.co/b8DXmNEspA
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) November 28, 2021
I was on TV this morning talking about #omicron and trying out different ways of saying “We don’t know yet” pic.twitter.com/8kFE0nYCWj
— Kai Kupferschmidt (@kakape) November 28, 2021
The federal workforce is showing that vaccine mandates work. Numbering more than 3.5M employees, federal workers met President Biden’s vaccination deadline w/ 92% getting at least 1 dose. The vax mandate was proof that more shots can be put into more arms https://t.co/05w34fXBZG pic.twitter.com/kdyy6vdL5V
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) November 29, 2021
Dr. Fauci on Ted Cruz saying he should be prosecuted: "I should be prosecuted? What happened on January 6, senator?"
And on Republicans scapegoating him: "That's okay. I'm just gonna do my job, and I'm gonna be saving lives, and they're gonna be lying." pic.twitter.com/fJm1Hh8lSJ
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 28, 2021
As of 8pm Sunday evening…
U.S. health officials have not imposed any new screening or tracing requirements in response to the newly discovered Omicron COVID-19 variant that prompted the Biden administration to restrict travel from southern Africa https://t.co/KKSSqahLv3 pic.twitter.com/m3p5iDBYuF
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 29, 2021
… No cases of the Omicron variant were identified in the United States as of Friday, the CDC has said. But infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said this weekend it was likely already in the United States.
The CDC said Friday it expects to identify the B.1.1.529 variant quickly if it emerges in the United States.
United currently operates five flights per week between Newark and Johannesburg. Delta operates three from Johannesburg to Atlanta…
======
???
Dear media & COVID commentators: Omicron being discovered in multiple countries now that we are AWARE of its existence and are sequencing for it means it’s probably been spreading some time ➡️ The spread ain’t the new phenomenon here, rather the UNCOVERING of the spread‼️ ??♀️ https://t.co/Bp5TgiMgk3— Fatima Tokhmafshan (she/elle) ???️? (@DeNovo_Fatima) November 28, 2021
The Omicron coronavirus variant spread around the world, with new cases found in the Netherlands, Denmark and Australia even as more countries imposed travel restriction to try to seal themselves off https://t.co/LPnEykM6Oe
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 29, 2021
The World Health Organization says preliminary evidence suggests that the coronavirus omicron variant presents an increased risk of reinfection. South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla says the variant is linked to an “exponential rise” of cases.https://t.co/CG0dTqQ3UN
— The Associated Press (@AP) November 28, 2021
As of this AM, 131 #OmicronVariant cases were confirmed in 13 countries. pic.twitter.com/LAgrdfvkW7
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) November 28, 2021
"Botswana’s government said Friday that the four B.1.1.529 cases reported last week actually originated with diplomats who visited from elsewhere." https://t.co/TXkg8VbokY
— Maryn McKenna (@marynmck) November 28, 2021
More than seven billion doses of coronavirus vaccines have been administered, in at least 197 countries worldwide
Check the latest data where you live https://t.co/HFfBQggO76
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) November 28, 2021
China study warns of 'colossal' COVID outbreak if it opens up like U.S., France https://t.co/6bvp0CPFWv pic.twitter.com/hprSdtYlPG
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 28, 2021
S.Korea shelves plans to ease COVID measures due to high case count, Omicron https://t.co/lAmhvNIeAJ pic.twitter.com/3PdquN9JhG
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 29, 2021
Malaysians working in Singapore are holding joyful reunions with their loved ones after returning to their homeland following the partial reopening of a land border that has been shuttered for nearly two years due to the pandemic. https://t.co/4rEVetzZgo
— The Associated Press (@AP) November 29, 2021
Japan said it would shut its borders to foreign visitors to prevent the spread of the Omicron variant of coronavirus, joining Israel in imposing some of the strictest border controls since the variant's discovery in southern Africa https://t.co/rXR8fuS8YI pic.twitter.com/5Y00q3gFrU
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 29, 2021
Philippines launches campaign to vaccinate 9 million people in three days https://t.co/q93ae1L9qu pic.twitter.com/qiAUN54Ggo
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 29, 2021
Australia will review its plans to reopen borders from Dec. 1, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said, after the country reported its first few cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant https://t.co/BQ0pdSHMZF pic.twitter.com/7G4heXOtQJ
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 29, 2021
New Zealand to ease COVID measures this week despite Omicron threat – PM https://t.co/7ZfcIzI0GS pic.twitter.com/xE2k1nuY1B
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 29, 2021
… There were no cases of the Omicron variant in New Zealand at this stage but the developing global situation showed why a cautious approach was needed at the borders, she said.
“Omicron is a reminder of the risk that still exists at our borders,” Ardern said at the news conference.
New Zealand has some of the toughest border controls in the world and plans to keep borders closed to most international travellers for a further five months.
It also introduced fresh border measures for travellers from nine southern African nation on the weekend, announcing that only citizens from these countries can travel to New Zealand and will have to stay in state quarantine for 14 days…
New Zealand moves into a new “traffic light” system from Friday that rates regions as red, orange or green depending on their level of exposure to COVID-19 and vaccination rates. Auckland, the epicentre of the country’s Delta outbreak, will start at red, making face masks mandatory and putting limits on gatherings at public places.
New Zealand has had about 11,000 cases so far and 43 related deaths.
Covid: Israel to impose travel ban for foreigners over new variant https://t.co/IChe8YbxLi
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) November 28, 2021
Russia on Monday confirmed 33,860 Covid-19 infections and 1,209 deaths https://t.co/LbQDKfIxaf
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) November 29, 2021
Portugal detects 13 cases of Omicron COVID-19 variant https://t.co/bP0QPRJyqN pic.twitter.com/7OkIEb2VuJ
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 29, 2021
Covid: Dutch police arrest quarantine hotel escapee couple https://t.co/8rI12YWvsp
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) November 29, 2021
Swiss voters appear set to approve legislation to introduce a special COVID-19 certificate that lets only people who have been vaccinated, recovered or tested negative attend public events and gatherings.https://t.co/lVPUCWZb2q
— The Associated Press (@AP) November 28, 2021
Frustrated by vaccine inequity, a South African lab is rushing to replicate Moderna’s shot. With help from the WHO & internat'l consultants, including from the US, Afrigen Biologics & Vaccines in Cape Town is developing a homegrown mRNA vaccine https://t.co/EHOwMaaOgR
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) November 28, 2021
African Covid Response: "In a region where women are responsible for family work and community relationships, they’ve stepped up to provide a collective authoritative voice, make and deliver supplies…"https://t.co/uSF8gWczRe
— Beth Bob (@BethBob2) November 25, 2021
Health officials Canada ??
“Today, the province of Ontario has confirmed 2 cases of the #OmicronVariant of #COVID19 in Ottawa, both of which were reported in indivs w/recent travel from #Nigeria…the patients are in isolation."https://t.co/AEV1G9ZwJ8
andhttps://t.co/oAnnhPZ5HY— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) November 28, 2021
======
Here's a very good article on what we know and mostly don't know about omicron.
Take a minute or so to consider the amazing things described in it – sequencing RNA, growing the virus, tracking its ancestry. We would be in deep trouble without them.https://t.co/Xf3shlD84l
— Cheryl Rofer (@CherylRofer) November 27, 2021
Thermo Fisher says its COVID-19 tests accurately detects Omicron variant https://t.co/54LU6wpa7O pic.twitter.com/5EXa26D6Wi
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 29, 2021
#Pfizer said it can update its #COVID19 vaccine within 100 days if the #OmicronVariant is found to be resistant to its current vaccine.
The company expects to know within two weeks whether the variant is resistant.https://t.co/ArODnRQgy8
— MicrobesInfect (@MicrobesInfect) November 27, 2021
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NYC doesn't require vaccination, but makes it very hard to participate in public life without one. Hence the adult vax rate is nearing 90% and COVID mortality rate is very low. pic.twitter.com/l4m8OLVJJo
— John Arnold (@JohnArnoldFndtn) November 28, 2021
This tweet could've been worded better. Mace argues Biden should be more like DeSantis & drop mandates b/c getting Covid confers more protection than vaccines
2 issues: she overlooks Covid infections killing ~775k Americans & she's wrong about vaccines https://t.co/T61qptvW6d
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 28, 2021
Think positive… ‘miracles’ do happen, sometimes:
you don’t want to run ahead of this and no one should but that said the best end to this would indeed be some hyper contagious mutation that outcompetes everything else precisely because it’s evolved out all the horrific severity https://t.co/GEy9yO6I5T
— kilgore trout, uatx professor of turnip studies (@KT_So_It_Goes) November 27, 2021
raven
My poor friends, mom, daughter and granddaughter have been separated since it hit. Daughter and granddaughter are in Australia and mom is here. Mom scrambled to change her flight to Friday but it may be too late.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 4,087 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 2,627,903 cases. It also reports 29 deaths as of midnight, for an adjusted cumulative total of 30,309 deaths – 1.15% of the cumulative reported total, 1.18% of resolved cases.
Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.96.
401 confirmed cases are in ICU, 175 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 4,984 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,532,036 patients recovered – 96.4% of the cumulative reported total.
Seven new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 5,938 clusters. 227 clusters are currently active; 5,711 clusters are now inactive.
4,066 new cases today are local infections. 21 new cases today are imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 42,010 doses of vaccine on 28th November: 2,030 first doses, 3,214 second doses, and 36,766 booster doses. As of midnight, the cumulative total is 53,231,117 doses administered: 25,824,465 first doses, 25,362,130 second doses, and 2,232,838 booster doses. 79.1% of the population have received their first dose, while 77.7% are now fully vaccinated.
soapdish
OH THANK GOD.
I’ve been clicking *refresh* here at BJ for the past four days waiting for this. Anne’s updates are like crack.
And a valuable service. Yes, a valuable service to the community as well.
sab
Nancy Mace is wrong about Covid infections giving immunity. I say “wrong” charitably, because I personally think she knows otherwise and is lying in order to get airtime on Fox. Anything for attention.
YY_Sima Qian
On 11/28 China reported 21 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic) & 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Manzhouli in Hulun Buir, Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 20 new domestic confirmed cases (2 previously asymptomatic) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, of the 19 new domestic positive cases 18 are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine since 11/27 & 1 from mass screening. There currently are 20 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 sub-district has been elevated to High Risk & 1 sub-district has been elevated to Medium Risk. Manzhouli is a major land border crossing w/ Russia. Indeed, it is China’s largest land border crossing.
Heilongjiang Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case. 5 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 46 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Shanghai Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 3 residential compounds are currently at Medium Risk.
Xuzhou in Jiangsu Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case in the city, a traced close contact of the party at Shanghai (having shared a meal w/ the party from Shanghai while at Suzhou on 11/20, returning to Xuzhou on 11/21).
Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, both traced close contacts of the party at Shanghai (having shared a meal w/ the party from Shanghai while at Suzhou on 11/20, returning to Hangzhou on 11/22).
Dalian in Liaoning Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 14 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 152 active domestic confirmed & 21 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 Medium Risk site was re-designated to Low Risk. 5 sites remain at Medium Risk.
At Yinchuan in Ningxia “Autonomous” Region the last 2 active domestic confirmed cases recovered.
At Hebei Province 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 26 active confirmed (6 at Shijiazhuang & 20 at Xinji) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Shijiazhuang) cases in the province.
At Rizhao in Shandong Province there currently are 3 active domestic confirmed & 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
At Sichuan Province 2 confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed cases remaining (10 at Chengdu & 1 at Zigong).
Chongqing Municipality there currently are 5 active domestic confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
At Henan Province there currently are 64 active domestic confirmed cases remaining (48 at Zhengzhou & 16 at Zhoukou).
Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Ruili (1 via screening of persons under centralized quarantine & 2 via screening of persons living in restricted movement zones). 2 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 37 active domestic confirmed & 31 active domestic asymptomatic cases at the prefecture. 1 zone & 1 village at Ruili remain at Medium Risk.
Imported Cases
On 11/28, China reported 20 new imported confirmed cases (2 previously asymptomatic), 18 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in China, 39 confirmed cases recovered (13 imported), 11 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (9 imported) & 4 were reclassified as confirmed cases (2 imported), & 1,744 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 787 active confirmed cases in the country (405 imported), 8 in serious condition (3 imported), 456 active asymptomatic cases (385 imported), 3 suspect cases (all imported). 34,317 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 11/28, 2,492.041M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 9.146M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 11/29, Hong Kong reported 3 new positive cases, all imported. 1 of the imported cases is infected w/ the Omicron Variant, marking 3 Omicron cases in the city to date. All were caught during screening upon arrival or during quarantine, there is no evidence of community transmission, yet.
Soprano2
All the travel bans are political, because we already know from what happened with Delta that the Omicron variant is probably already all over the world. I’m not going to panic or despair because I’m doing what I can. I’m getting my booster this week. I’m hoping that last tweet is right.
SiubhanDuinne
After nearly three weeks in the hospital with Covid (plus pneumonia, emphysema, and an infection because they left the IV in place too long), my brother finally went home yesterday.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
Greece: there was the regular Sunday dip, so 3,283 new cases isn’t indicative of the trend; but 96 people died in that last 24-hour period, and there are 647 ICU patients intubated, which is higher than it’s been in half a year (though the government notes that number was higher in the spring. (Source: ekathimerini.com)
Personally, I’m starting to worry again, despite being vaxxed, boosted, and tested weekly by my office. I had plans and purchased tickets to visit loved ones back in the US for Christmas, and I’ll be more than a little annoyed if I have to cancel those plans again. I’ve had to convert a round-trip ticket to a travel voucher several times already, and it’s getting real old.
YY_Sima Qian
@SiubhanDuinne: Sorry to hear about his ordeal, glad that he is on the mend. Was he vaccinated/boosted?
Barbara
@SiubhanDuinne: I hope he recovers quickly with no lasting effects. There are some grim stories out there.
Soprano2
@SiubhanDuinne: I’m glad, I hope his recovery is a good one.
Rob
Welcome back, Anne Laurie. Your updates (and On The Road) are the very first things I read in the morning after I check the weather. Thank you for doing this series!
Cermet
The Omicron variant is being overly hyped by the media; besides the fact it is highly unlikely to beat the current vaccination to any significant degree – we have the Pfizer anti-viral pill coming; Pfizer could quickly mfg. a new, specific vaccine for it; hospitals have far better treatments, and a significant percentage of our population is vaccinated. This is night to day different compared to a year ago. That this Omicron variant might produce milder symptoms makes sense – a direction most viruses go from evolution. All in all, the media are like sharks with chum – all feeding frenzy, no real meat.
Soprano2
So what if they discover that Omicron is less lethal and has milder symptoms than Delta? Let it outcompete Delta? I think it would present a quandary for us. If it spreads easier that’s probably what will happen naturally.
Soprano2
@Cermet: Yep, it’s what they do. I was totally unsurprised to see the market shit the bed over basically no information. Most of that will come back this week.
SiubhanDuinne
Deleted
debbie
@SiubhanDuinne:
Great news! Hope his recovery goes well.
SiubhanDuinne
@YY_Sima Qian:
Neither of my brothers was vaccinated, and both got Covid. I’m exceedingly relieved they didn’t die, but I remain furious with them for refusing to take the simple precaution that’s available to all of us.
Geo Wilcox
@sab: There is a video of her saying exactly the opposite when she was on CNN.
Feathers
Figure skating just had the last event of their Grand Prix this weekend. The Final is supposed to be in Japan in two weeks. The Winter Olympics are supposed to start in 67 days in Beijing. So important to so many. Utterly meaningless in the big picture.
I hope what is actually happening can be sorted out quickly so the necessary course corrections can be made.
debbie
@sab:
Because of course. She’s a Rethuglican. ??♀️
SiubhanDuinne
@Barbara:
@Soprano2:
@debbie:
Thank you all. He’ll be on oxygen for the foreseeable future, but he sounded a million percent better when I talked to him than he had even a couple of days earlier.
It’s been emotionally tough, having him so ill. Our sister (his twin) died just a year ago — tomorrow is her Jahrzeit — so it’s already kind of a sucky time of year for what’s left of the family.
satby
@SiubhanDuinne: Hallelujah! Glad to hear that.
Rob
@SiubhanDuinne: This is good news!
New Deal democrat
Via Prof. Peter Hotez, here is Dr. Jorge Caballero on why you should take stories about Omicron already being detected more or less all over the world with many grains of salt:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1464683633583689730
“Let’s discuss what S-gene target failure (SGTF) is/isn’t, and why it’s being used to screen for #Omicron cases”
https://mobile.twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1464653491192754187
“you’ve probably seen scary looking graphs that look something like these but if you look at the fine print, you’ll note that they’re not actually measuring the variant— they’re measuring S-gene target failure (SGTF) and assuming that they’re due to #Omicron
“Here’s the problem with that assumption: SGTF isn’t unique to #Omicron— the mutation that gives rise to SGTF has been found in 1 out of every 5 viral genomes sequenced (globally) since the start of the pandemic (1 in 7 U.S. genomes sequenced)”
He goes on to say that cases originally thought to be Omicron in Italy were actually Alpha that had this mutation.
Until you know that the tests conducted were specifically tailored to Omicron (almost impossible at this moment), you should recognize that they may just be finding the above Alpha variant.
—-
On another note, US data is next to useless for the past 4 days, due to wholesale lack of reporting. Presumably these will catch up over the next few days, which will show up as a faux spike next week that the credulous and hysterics will credit to Omicron. About all that can be said now is that those few States which have continued to report daily have either showed a decline (CA) or no increase (NJ).
Suzanne
@SiubhanDuinne: Many, many hugs. Yes m glad he’s recovered. I’m sorry it’s still difficult and enraging.
satby
@SiubhanDuinne: it’s so hard when events barely let you mourn an earlier loss. My family has been going through that, though not due to covid. And anger is understandable, it was an unnecessary risk to take and he almost paid the ultimate price. I feel ya.
Brit in Chicago
A question that I have not seen explicitly answered: if Pfizer and Moderna tweak their vaccines to deal better with the new variant (or others that may be on the way), do they need to go through the whole regulatory process again?
I’ve seen things suggesting that the answer is Yes. But why would it be? Every year there is slightly different flu vaccine, but I’m pretty sure that the annual version does not have to go through testing, because it’s not that different from previous years’. Wouldn’t the same be true of a slightly new version of the wonderful mRNA vaccines?
lowtechcyclist
@sab: I’d thought that Nancy Mace was one of the handful of relatively sane Republicans. So much for that.
Getting Covid is indeed a way to acquire ‘natural immunity’. There are of course obvious problems with that approach. Some people who get Covid will die. They’ll be naturally immune from that point on, but that won’t enable them to resume going about their lives because, well, they’ll be dead.
Other people will get really really sick with Covid, and have lasting health effects. My wife’s cousin has been out of the hospital for three months, but she still can’t be away from that oxygen tank for very long, so while she may be immune, she isn’t exactly living her best life as a result. She’s also having nontrivial memory issues. Maybe Rep. Mace wouldn’t mind living like that, but I sure the hell would.
And we really don’t know how long the ‘natural immunity’ from getting Covid lasts, since this plague has still only been with us for just under two years. But the indications are that it wears off.
We also won’t know for years what the long-term effects of having had Covid might be. Again, maybe that’s a gamble Rep. Mace doesn’t mind taking, but I’d rather live without that worry.
And finally, of course, every person who opts for ‘natural immunity’ and successfully comes down with Covid is a fucking plague rat that can and probably will spread Covid to others. Meaning more deaths, more serious illnesses and long Covid, and more people who get to put a bet on whether Covid leaves your body with some hidden time bombs that may make you sick or kill you years or decades later.
Matt McIrvin
@Geo Wilcox: The thing about comparing “natural” immunity vs. vaccination is that there are a few studies actually claiming that post-infection immunity is stronger, which all the antivaxxers and anti-anti-antivaxxers have seized on as supporting their case. They of course have the problem of selection effects potentially biasing the results, and they’re a decided minority of papers, and I suspect anyway that least half of the people who claim they “already got COVID” actually didn’t… but if you want to claim that “natural immunity is better”, you can cite something supporting you.
The thing is… the claim is absurd on its face just because “natural immunity” requires getting infected by the virus. The whole point is to not get the disease! How is getting the disease the best way to not get the disease?
Robert Sneddon
@Soprano2: The Omicron variant is a big shift, genetically speaking from previous variants and that is what got it the Gold Medal award of being labelled a Variant of Concern like its predecessor, the Delta variant. The VOC label is why every country’s health services are taking it very seriously.
This new variant will spread regardless. The closing of borders and heightened restrictions are there to slow things down, put off a possible super-epidemic event for a couple of weeks while more data is gathered and possible more targetted mitigations are put in place.
The Scottish government reported today they have detected six cases of the Omicron variant here, mostly in the west of the country. There’s no connection with southern Africa in these cases, no recent history of travel there or family connections apparently. They have ruled out the big rugby match between Scotland and South Africa that was held a few weeks ago near where I live as a possible source for this outbreak — there were a significant number of SA team supporters who flew into Edinburgh for the match.
Matt McIrvin
I’m treating the stories that Omicron is less severe with a certain amount of skepticism–the southern African populations where it’s been spreading are younger on average than Western populations and it’s possible that this is not an apples-to-apples comparison.
That said, I’m not freaking about it too much because there are suggestions that full vaccination has some effectiveness against it, and it seems to me that the big problem where I live is still that Delta is raging with little relief and people need to get their vaccinations and their boosters.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@SiubhanDuinne:
Glad he’s coming home but sorry he’s had such a rough time of it
Matt McIrvin
@Soprano2:
The purpose of them is not so much to keep the virus out, as to cover the authorities’ asses so that nobody can attack them for not instituting a travel ban when they fail to keep it out. It’s like what they used to say about buying IBM or Microsoft: it’s not that the products are better, it’s that nobody ever got fired for buying them.
Matt McIrvin
@Soprano2:
If catching one doesn’t give you strong immunity to the other, they may not even be competing.
Mousebumples
@Brit in Chicago: I think the answer has not been definitively decided. I’d guess something similar would be done as to flu vaccines.
Eg, a phase 1/2 trial to show safety and immune response similar to the original vaccines. I wouldn’t expect new safety concerns but new vaccine technology – i can understand waiting a few weeks after administration to the trial volunteers.
But I don’t think the full (months long) Phase 3 would be necessary? Though I don’t work for these regulatory agencies…
Wvng
@soapdish: Yes. AL’s covid updates really should be required reading for all humans (I was going to write “Americans” but its much broader than that). I look for her posts on this first thing every day.
Soprano2
@Matt McIrvin: That’s why I say it’s political. I understand the idea of trying to slow it down, but I suspect that by the time a new variant is discovered it’s already spread quite a bit, and if the new one is even more contagious than the previous ones, well…..
Another Scott
@Matt McIrvin: Eric Ding has his critics, and they may be right – I really don’t know enough about him to have an opinion, but he does provide original cites. He mentioned that diplomats seemed to bring Omicron into some African countries (the implication being that it has been circulating a long time). He also mentioned that the vaccinated Hong Kong patients were asymptomatic and had high viral loads.
We’ll know more soon. My guess is that vaccinated people are probably as safe as with the Delta case. Unvaccinated people should be very worried and should get their jabs ASAP.
Time will tell.
:-(
Cheers,
Scott.
Brit in Chicago
@Mousebumples: Thanks for the response. It does seem to me to be a crucial issue, and I’m surprised that there has not been more clarity about it. The drug companies seem able to tweak the mRNA vaccines very rapidly indeed, so if there is little or no regulatory delay people who live in rich countries, and are sensible, may have little reason to worry.
Robert Sneddon
The UK government are holding a briefing today at 15:00 GMT, probably to announce that all adults are going to be eligible for booster vaccinations. The current booster vaccination program is only open to those over the age of 40 and at least six months from their last vaccination. This interval may be moved down to five months as well.
They’re also likely to provide an update on the Omicron variant and the (to date) nine cases reported here in the UK.
bjacques
We’d already put off a trip stateside this December, because the numbers here in n NL were skyrocketing, 50% increase weekly for the past month, after failing to drop any further.
The youngish creep who heads the far-right party Forum For Democracy cemented an alliance this week with Dutch Reformed Bible thumpers (also anti-vaxx) by marrying his child bride in one of their churches, in my neighborhood.
can I get a “Blech”?
Cameron
@sab: Of course she knows better. According to Raw Story, she went on CNN a few hours later and praised vaccines to the sky.
Zzyzx
The problem with not freaking out over omicron is that delta was so much worse than normal covid, that it’s hard not to generalize from a sample size of 1.
Robert Sneddon
@Brit in Chicago: The original Stage 3 mass volunteer trials of all the vaccines developed in the early part of 2020 were to determine their efficacy i.e. did they actually provide any protection en masse. That took months for the case numbers to reach a significant (in the statistical sense) proportion of the test groups as well as spot any significant adverse outcomes. By September 2020 the results were clear and overwhelming, the vaccines worked and were safe. Yay! Some other vaccine candidates didn’t provide effective protection under trial and they were abandoned – Merck lost a packet on their two vaccine candidates when they failed under stage 3 trials.
Any modified mRNA vaccines targetted to the significant differences in the spike proteins on the Omicron variant don’t really need the safety tests since the engineering structures and delivery systems for mRNA vaccines are the same. Their efficacy can be determined by mass inoculation statistics after they have been rolled out to the public and a few million doses have been administered.
I don’t think we’ll see modified versions of the J&J vaccine or the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine being developed and produced since the mRNA vaccines are simpler to rev up to V2.0 in the short term but I’m not privy to the discussions around the Big Pharma boardroom tables.
New Deal democrat
@Another Scott:
As with any “Breaking News!” event, about half of what you read will be wrong. The problem is, nobody knows which item falls in which half. Recognizing that you need to step back a little bit and “wait a week” to see how the more breathless commentary plays out can save a lot of aggravation.
I think Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is an alarmist, but I also think he is well worth reading. He’s said “the sky is falling” several times and been wrong (both about Beta and Lambda iirc), but he’s also said “the sky is falling” and been right at least twice (March 2020 and Delta). On the other hand there is Dr. Scott Gottlieb who has been too sanguine (“everyone will be infected with Delta by winter, and then by spring 2021 Covid will be behind us”), but also firmly rebutted claims that the vaccines were not (or were no longer) effective.
Here’s what he is saying now:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1465307688091455497
“There’s a possibility when you look at the data–that they oversampled an initial early cluster,” says @ScottGottliebMD on South Africa data of Omicron. “They’re presuming that is very new when in fact it might have been circulating for quite some time.”
In between Feigl-Ding and Gottlieb are others I routinely follow:
Dr. Eric Topol (also somewhat alarmist but mainly covering the pandemic throughly)
Prof. Peter Hotez
Dr. Andrew Slavitt
Dr. Trevor Bedford (gene sequencing – was essential reading in February and March 2020, and again now)
Dr. Marc Lipsitch
Dr. Carl Bergstrom (on the sanguine side, but always persuasive)
There are also several laypeople who do some great number-crunching:
Charles Gaba
Conor Kelly
In general I have found that those who are “in the middle” in the above list pretty quickly sort through the data and plump towards the Feigl-Ding or the Gottlieb end of the spectrum.
So even if a particular person seems too pessimistic or optimistic, they are very helpful in flagging issues early on that the others will eventually confirm or rebut (imo of course).
Sloane Ranger
@SiubhanDuinne: Glad to hear this. I hope he has a full and quick recovery.
Nobdy in particular
Some new research suggests another thing you can do to boost your own natural immunity, or more accurately, a way to keep a component of your immune system in a healthy fighting weight. Microphages and the Circadian rhythms.
Sloane Ranger
So, yesterday (Sunday) in the UK we had 37,681 new cases reported but, as usual any figures reported over the weekend should be taken with a grain of salt due to office closures over the weekend. The moving 7-day average is up by 6.4%. New cases by nation,
England – 32,136 (down 3662 from Saturday)
Northern Ireland – 1405 (down 77 from Saturday)
Scotland – 2177 (down 110 from Saturday)
Wales – 1963 (includes some cases from Saturday when Wales does not report).
Deaths – There were 51 deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported yesterday, but again, pinch of salt needed. The rolling 7-day average is down by 17.6%. 40 deaths were in England, 2 in Northern Ireland, 9 in Wales and none reported from Scotland.
Testing – Not updated at weekends.
Hospitalisations – Not updated at weekends.
Vaccinations – As of Saturday, 27 November, 50,917,949 people had had 1 shot of a vaccine, 46,309,909 had had 2 and 17,581,331 had had a 3rd shot/booster. This means that, as of that date, 88.5% of all UK residents aged 12+ have had 1 shot, 80.5% had had 2 and 30.6% had had a 3rd shot/booster. I’m booked for my booster at 11.50am tomorrow and this time, the the venue is literally just round the corner!
frosty
@Rob: Ha! I read AL’s COVID roundup BEFORE I check the weather. Why bother when you dread getting out of bed (ca March 2020 to be fair).
Nobdy in particular
@Nobdy in particular: Macrophages. More coffee. As Dr. Feynman has said, some “experts” will have the nomenclature, know the names of everything, and understand nothing.
VOR
@Soprano2: The 1918 “Spanish Flu” influenza pandemic got the name because Spain wasn’t a World War 1 combatant so their media was able to report on the disease outbreak. The pandemic was already raging in other countries which had press restrictions due to the war. It didn’t originate in Spain, it was merely first publicly reported in Spain. I suspect the same is true of Omnicron – it didn’t originate in South Africa, merely first discovered and reported there.
Nobdy in particular
@New Deal democrat:
If I may suggest, it would be to all our benefit if everyone on the planet was in a state of alarm, justified or not about this threat. Vaccination = survival of the species, Virus = painful individual death. A very simple message. As far as I know, Chicken Little’s sky did not fall and kill anyone. It just made them stay home.
Peale
@sab: Oh, I agree with her. She should take it up with the virus, though. Look, there’s millions of species of viruses, bactieria and other “germs” out there and we’re probably exposed to dozens of them every day and either they do nothing or our “natural immunity” just zaps them away without us even getting a sniffle. Which is why we haven’t bothered to even make vaccines to counter them. Like even with most of the ones that make us sick we don’t bother developing a vaccine. An e-coli vaccine would be great, I’m sure. But is there a vaccine. Nope. They just tell us to wash and cook our food and wipe down our kitchen counters. So maybe she should take her complaint up with COVID. “Be more like e-coli, COVID. Quit being such an attention grabber.” Maybe we could scold this virus into behaving.
Steeplejack
@SiubhanDuinne:
Is he going to get vaccinated now, or is he “immune” because he has already had COVID?
One thing I am glad about is that my RWNJ brother got vaxed early through the V.A. I was expecting him to be a nutter aboout COVID along with everything else.
Peale
I’m coming down on the side of “Omicron isn’t all that much of a bother.” Mainly because it didn’t pick up all those mutations 2 weeks ago. Its been circulating around for awhile and the reason it hasn’t been detected until now is that people in general weren’t getting sick enough to be hospitalized or bother with testing. That’s my just-so story and I’m sticking with it. For at least two weeks, that is.
opiejeanne
@sab: There was a later note that the very same woman, Nancy Mace, then went on CNN to urge people to get vaccinated
And I see that Geo Wilcox beat me to this.
SiubhanDuinne
@Steeplejack:
I think this one might consider getting vaccinated now. There’s no hope for the other one, though. Glad your brother isn’t quite as stubborn and bullheaded as mine!
rikyrah
@SiubhanDuinne:
YEAH :)
rikyrah
First, Ms. Delta Rona.
Now, we have Cousin Omicron.
bluefoot
The US (hell, most countries) need MUCH better virus surveillance, including sequencing. The reason the omicron variant was detected and confirmed in South Africa is because they have good infrastructure, and commitment to, sequencing virus from positive cases. We do very little of that here in the US, which is ridiculous and depressing considering the sheer amount of money and labs that exist here.
In the current environment, knee-jerk travel bans only succeed to discourage proper surveillance since countries are essentially punished for detecting and reporting new variants. If the entire planet was doing good surveillance and variants detected as they emerge, then perhaps travel bans could be justified. Maybe.
While we wait for the scientists, epidemiologists, etc to learn more about Omicron, we can continue to do what we can to slow the virus down.
La Nonna
It is just so distressing to have dodged this virus successfully for almost 2 years, only to be stymied again by a pool of unvaxxed disease variants. Met 2 European antivaxxers yesterday, covidiots, living here in Italy, counting on the rest of us acting responsibly, and shrugging off any potential burden on our already stretched healthcare system, gah. And we are still hoping to see our US fam here in Sicily mid December, all vaxxed, boostered and careful, it has been a long 2.5 years since we saw anyone…more like the 1850s emigrant experience when leaving meant a permanent break.
Robert Sneddon
Actually the epidemiologists believe the Omicron variant was a single-event mutation, probably in someone who was immunocompromised and being treated in a medical environment with antivirals. There are a LOT of differences between the Omicron variant and other COVID-19 variants, all in one viable package which is demonstrably communicable.
I repeat, the Variant Of Concern label is not handed out on a whim by the WHO. There are literally dozens of Variants Of Interest, lesser versions of the virus that are kept under scrutiny just in case they adapt and change and make things worse. Omicron came out of nowhere to take the top podium from a previous VOC, Delta, in the Scary Stakes. Over-reaction now and regret later is a lot less harmful than taking an attitude of “Meh” and accepting a ten-million-plus bodycount six months down the road.
Dirk Reinecke
The feeling in South Africa is that we are being punished by the travel bans, because of the good work our scientists are doing with genetic sequencing.
Our seven day average infection rate is 4,500 and the UK is at 43,000. This is despite our two countries having an equivalent population. The UK last had 4500 daily infections in June ffs. South Africa has never even had 40,000 infections at the height of any of our waves. FFFS.
This is going to be utterly devastating to our tourism sector, which is already reeling from the last two years.
Unique uid
@Brit in Chicago: I’m pretty sure the first article I saw Friday morning was an Axios one. It had a quote from Pfizer head about 100 days. He said they would need to do 20 people testing for 14 days, that is all.
Seemed like 100 days included that, plus cooking the first production batches.
Robert Sneddon
@Dirk Reinecke:
Here in the UK the scientific committees advising the government are desperately scrabbling for a breathing space before this new variant gets a good foothold here. Southern African states are the identified source of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 and slowing down its widespread introduction here via travel restrictions is the best they can do right now. It’s not “punishment”.
There is evidence that exit controls at South African airports are poor — two KLM flights to the Netherlands from Jo’burg with 600 passengers on Friday had 61 cases of COVID-19 detected on arrival, with 13 of those cases being later identified as the Omicron variant after gene sequencing. Either a few infected people slipped past the testing requirements for boarding the flight and a lot of people on the planes caught the disease from them to the point of having a detectable viral load on landing twelve hours later or bribery, carelessness and/or desperation was involved. Either possibility is not a cause for confidence.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: Actual vaccine/virus experts tend to regard Eric Feigl-Ding as a crank, so I ignore him.
Topol is mostly sensible, though he posts more to the alarm side. Hotez and Slavitt are great. Dr. Angela Rasmussen is a good one. Chise (@sailorrooscout) is a great source of gnarly details about immunology and is doing yeoman service knocking down stupid memes, though I do think they lean somewhat more to the “don’t panic” side than the median.
Matt McIrvin
@Nobdy in particular: I worry about the paralysis that comes from doomism. It’s like with climate change–Erik Loomis has gotten to the point where he’s actively disparaging climate activism on the grounds that it’s hopeless, and I think he’s doing harm. And guess what–he’s also been saying from the beginning that “we will all get COVID” so a lot of the non-medical interventions are pointless.