Imagine if Omicron isn't that bad and all we end up achieving by implementing mitigations is reducing cases, taking pressure of hospitals, reducing long covid, protecting unvaccinated kids, buying time for people to be boosted and reducing the number of people dying from Covid.
— Kit Yates (@Kit_Yates_Maths) December 1, 2021
President Joe Biden laid out his strategy to fight the coronavirus as the highly contagious Omicron spread across the globe and hours after the first known U.S. case of community transmission of the variant was reported https://t.co/A70E0id2PO pic.twitter.com/UJ4CMvATn5
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 3, 2021
?2.2M doses reported administered today?
Highest single day total since May!
People getting boosted, kids getting vaccinated, adults rolling up sleeves for the first time.
Incredibly hopeful sign.
— Ben Wakana (@benwakana46) December 2, 2021
Biden: last xmas, 1% of americans vaccinated. this xmas, 72% vaccinated.
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) December 2, 2021
Biden: if wondering where to go to get yourself or family vaccinated, visit https://t.co/W8mmwyRs51
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) December 2, 2021
President Joe Biden’s latest measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 mean that people traveling to the U.S. will have to test negative for the virus closer to their departure time. But they won't be tested upon arrival or have to quarantine. https://t.co/2ZQ4iipwTl
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 3, 2021
Could we simplify this?
REPUBLICANS LOSE ATTEMPT TO DESTROY VACCINE MANDATE
Add IN SENATE if you like https://t.co/qkcnWcRMh4
— Cheryl Rofer (@CherylRofer) December 3, 2021
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China easing rules for US business travellers, approvals in 10 days https://t.co/abbOOnMY8a pic.twitter.com/PKTVxVZMbt
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 3, 2021
More than 1 billion vaccinated: India is one of the most vaccinated countries in the world. After the #DeltaVariant scare earlier this year, the country launched a massive vaccination campaign, highlighting its dedication to science, health & innovation https://t.co/ENWQ1Bujvr
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 3, 2021
India reports first cases of new Omicron Covid variant https://t.co/QGnwjbsVKQ
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) December 2, 2021
South Korea is tightening recently relaxed restrictions on social gatherings as it grapples with its worst wave of the virus since the start of the pandemic. Starting next week, private social gatherings of seven or more people will be banned in Seoul. https://t.co/HS91UIn1iF
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 3, 2021
Malaysia detects first Omicron case in quarantined traveler from South Africa https://t.co/eozNGG0SYU pic.twitter.com/GsVsGOkrPe
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 3, 2021
World Health Organization officials in the Western Pacific say border closures adopted by some countries may buy time to deal with the new omicron coronavirus variant. https://t.co/NI1liLopCS
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 3, 2021
Nightclubs, cafes and casinos reopen in Auckland as marathon lockdown ends https://t.co/n3BqfWblRi pic.twitter.com/jkPznoonYI
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 3, 2021
Russia on Friday confirmed 32,930 Covid-19 infections and 1,217 deaths https://t.co/FsFtdgFA3N
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) December 3, 2021
Even as the country’s excess mortality remains among the world’s highest, many Russians are refusing to accept new public health restrictions, reports @felix_lighthttps://t.co/dSHgPwXjJ7
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) December 3, 2021
JUST IN: Germany is banning unvaccinated people from accessing all but the most essential businesses to curb the spread of coronavirus, outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel and her successor, Olaf Scholz, announced. https://t.co/DaJabY3cbx
— CNN (@CNN) December 2, 2021
A cluster of 19 cases has been identified in Portugal so far. All are related to infections at the Belenenses soccer club https://t.co/zHOn5AQbSr
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 3, 2021
Geneva places 2,000 people in quarantine after two Omicron cases https://t.co/nmgM2jjvu7 pic.twitter.com/m50HwhyZcL
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 3, 2021
Covid risk remains higher for some ethnic groups https://t.co/8qQBxzNObl
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) December 3, 2021
South Africa has accelerated its vaccination campaign with pop-up sites in shopping centers and at transportation hubs a week after the discovery of the omicron variant of the coronavirus. Cases in the country have surged since the variant was detected. https://t.co/CetZMCPpzO
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 3, 2021
Coronavirus cases in #SouthAfrica nearly triple in three days as fears over #OmicronVariant growhttps://t.co/S9x1NSqbN2
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) December 2, 2021
Google said it is indefinitely pushing back its January return-to-office plan globally amid growing concerns over the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant https://t.co/wKSKWrGIQN pic.twitter.com/9SWwcSlJEV
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 3, 2021
======
Prior infection is little defense against #OmicronVariant. Scientists say evidence from South Africa, where the variant already dominates, shows a high rate of reinfection among people who had already weathered a coronavirus infection https://t.co/N1UKiz6llQ
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 3, 2021
Most Covid vaccines will work as boosters, according to new research. In a comparison of 7 different brands, scientists found that most shots give a strong boost, even in mix-and-match combinations https://t.co/HWYNy6Awmd
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 3, 2021
When will the effects of #Omicron (whatever they are) be felt?
"if it took ~8 weeks for Omicron to grow from initial spark into local epidemic in South Africa, I would expect very roughly 8 weeks from today for secondary epidemics to begin to manifest” @trvrb says in this thread https://t.co/MZfzw4nLmS— Kai Kupferschmidt (@kakape) December 2, 2021
======
While we still don't know a lot about omicron, remember delta is still here and it's been causing some of the worst moments of the in the U.S..
Why we shouldn't lose sight of the variant that's ripe to surge regardless of omicron https://t.co/9KLzCsGAbj w/ @britsham
— Fenit Nirappil (@FenitN) December 2, 2021
The vast majority of states' efforts on #Covid vaccine mandates have been aimed at impeding them rather than supporting them, @doritmi & colleagues reported today in @JAMANetwork. Many of the interventions haven't been enacted, however. https://t.co/iLaQVk0QZZ
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) December 2, 2021
“I refuse to get vaccinated bc I want to help overwhelm a hospital so an ambulance carrying someone having a heart attack has to drive around looking for an open ER until the patient dies” https://t.co/z2mb2vWhhv
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 2, 2021
In MA, #COVID19 hospitalizations are going vertical (not just cases), and wastewater levels (a leading indicator) are nearing an all-time high. #OmicronVariant has been detected in the US. We need immediate and aggressive action – vax, booster, indoor mask mandates, etc. #mapoli pic.twitter.com/kjqO5Yg7c6
— Jon Levy (@jonlevyBU) December 1, 2021
This is true — sort of. W VA & FL & other low-vax states have seen their #COVID19 rates fall, but they were at all-times highs, exceeding other states, in Sept/Oct. https://t.co/VMLjQVnre0 pic.twitter.com/V1OKmqhRTg
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) December 2, 2021
There are 55,000 Americans in hospital beds right now with COVID hoping to keep breathing, and we are still close to 1,000 Americans dying every day from a disease we have free, effective vaccines for.
— Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) December 2, 2021
NeenerNeener
Monroe County NY:
Monroe County website says 658 new cases yesterday, the NYSDOH says 712.
This is a repeat of 2020. Those 35% unvaccinated are a lot of dry kindling to burn through.
mrmoshpotato
Nice to have someone in the Oval office who wants to do the job.
rikyrah
Go Germany.
Don’t let those unvaccinated muthaphuckas do anything.
mrmoshpotato
Good.
Cermet
When historians (not yet born) look back they will curse us for AGW inaction and be utterly lost why a ultra-safe, extremely effective vaccine was avoided as tens of thousands died needlessly. Many a PhD will be earned puzzling this paradox out in terms that few will understand but pretend to understand.
YY_Sima Qian
On 12/2 China reported 80 new domestic confirmed & 10 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 56 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 241 active domestic confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region.
Heilongjiang Province reported 10 new domestic confirmed cases. 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 39 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Beijing Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, a person who had come from Harbin in Heilongjiang on 11/28, & had crossed path in indoor space w/ a domestic confirmed case at Harbin on 11/26.
Xianyang in Shaanxi Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, an immediate family member of the imported confirmed case reported there on 12/1, already under centralized quarantine since 11/30.
Shanghai Municipality reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases, two individuals who returned to Shanghai from elsewhere in China on 11/18. Both developed fevers on 12/1 & visited fever clinic, where they tested positive. As of 8 AM on 12/3, 185 F1 & 464 F2 close contacts have been traced & placed under centralized quarantine, all have tested negative so far. Additional 35,207 individuals deemed at potential risk have been tested, all negative. 1,616 environmental samples have been collected, 7 from the residences of the cases have tested positive. It is still unknown whether the cases were infected in Shanghai or elsewhere. There currently are 5 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. 1 residential compound has been elevated to Medium Risk. 4 residential compounds are currently at Medium Risk.
At Xuzhou in Jiangsu Province there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case remaining.
At Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province there currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
At Dalian in Liaoning Province 9 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 2 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 125 active domestic confirmed & 11 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 2 Medium Risk sites were re-designated to Low Risk. 1 site remains at Medium Risk.
At Hebei Province there currently are 17 active confirmed cases (4 at Shijiazhuang & 13 at Xinji) in the province.
At Rizhao in Shandong Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
At Sichuan Province 1 confirmed case recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases remaining (1 each at Chengdu & Zigong).
Chongqing Municipality 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
At Henan Province there currently are 63 active domestic confirmed cases remaining (47 at Zhengzhou & 16 at Zhoukou).
Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province reported 10 new domestic confirmed & 10 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Longchuan County (2 from fever clinic & 18 from screening of persons under centralized quarantine). It seems a new cluster has been discovered in the county. It has been several weeks since any community transmission had been detected there. 4 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 44 active domestic confirmed & 36 active domestic asymptomatic cases at the prefecture. 1 zone at Longchuan County has been elevated to High Risk. 1 zone & 1 village at Ruili remain at Medium Risk.
Imported Cases
On 12/2, China reported 16 new imported confirmed cases (none previously asymptomatic), 14 imported asymptomatic cases, 3 imported suspect cases:
Overall in China, 30 confirmed cases recovered (15 imported), 16 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (10 imported) & none were reclassified as confirmed cases, & 1,078 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 972 active confirmed cases in the country (416 imported), 10 in serious condition (2 imported), 449 active asymptomatic cases (384 imported), 5 suspect cases (all imported). 32,320 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 12/2, 2,524.363M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 7.983M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 12/3, Hong Kong reported 3 new positive cases, all imported.
debbie
Ohio had 9,131 new cases yesterday. Meanwhile, hearings are being scheduled on legislation removing mandates for ALL vaccines. Wrong direction, Ohio, you ass!
debbie
@Cermet:
Or, as in our curiosity about the demise of dinosaurs, they’ll wonder what the precipitating event was that killed off all the stupid people.
Barbara
We are waiting for results of Covid tests because unvaccinated extended family member tested positive on Wednesday. Rapid tests were negative, but kids have colds that we hope are just a coincidence. The unvaccinated guy (and wife) are nice people but apparently the wife in particular lives in bizarro world when her sister doesn’t put an embargo on political topics in place, which she did for the holiday. So we had a nice time minus the Covid scare. Among other people “inconvenienced” by this development are a few elderly cancer survivors, a pregnant woman and a pediatrician. Yeah, I would love to be done with Covid.
mrmoshpotato
@debbie: LOL! And many research papers will be written about why they were so stupid.
And oh the dissertations about “owning the libs”!
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 5,551 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 2,649,578 cases. It also reports 47 deaths as of midnight, for an adjusted cumulative total of 30,521 deaths – 1.15% of the cumulative reported total, 1.18% of resolved cases.
Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.96.
Health Minister Khairy Jamaludin said today that one of 47 positive tests recorded among arrivals at KL International Airport between November 11th and November 28th was a probable case of the Omicron variant. The patient, a 19-year-old South African studying at a private university here, was asymptomatic while under quarantine, and contact tracing turned up no other cases of the variant, he added.
362 confirmed cases are in ICU, 157 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 5,301 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,556,554 patients recovered – 96.5% of the cumulative reported total.
Six new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 5,965 clusters. 228 clusters are currently active; 5,737 clusters are now inactive.
5,528 new cases today are local infections. 23 new cases today are imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 150,357 doses of vaccine on 2nd December: 5,408 first doses, 8,649 second doses, and 136,300 booster doses. As of midnight, the cumulative total is 53,828,128 doses administered: 25,866,541 first doses, 25,423,192 second doses, and 2,728,294 booster doses. 79.2% of the population have received their first dose, while 77.8% are now fully vaccinated.
Betty Cracker
Meanwhile Florida “Governor” Ron DeSantis is using U.S. taxpayer dollars from the American Rescue Plan to pay unemployment benefits to people who get fired for refusing a vaccine. Mind you, in the initial wave of infections back in 2020, that motherfucker couldn’t get UI benefits to people who’d earned them due to a system that was designed (by Republicans) to fail.
We paid our kid’s expenses for months while the UI backlog was processed. Many people who didn’t have family safety nets became homeless and went hungry. But to score political points, that motherfucker DeSantis moves with amazing speed to distribute government largess.
DeSantis is our problem in Florida now. Let’s make sure he never becomes America’s problem because I swear y’all, he is worse than Trump.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
Greece: in the 24-hour period reported on December 2 at 6pm EEST, 6,260 new cases, 89 fatalities, and the total number of intubated ICU patients rose to 704.
As for the first confirmed Omicron case in Greece, a traveler who arrived in Crete from South Africa on November 26, I personally find the specifics a bit worrying. He was fully vaccinated, and rapid testing on arrival was negative, as was a second test the next day after he developed systems. He only tested positive on a third test.
His contacts since arrival have been traced, and so far, thankfully, all tests have been been negative.
But from all appearances, this traveler did everything right and still caught it.
(Source: Kathimerini)
New Deal democrat
US cases and deaths both jumped yesterday, as more late reporting was recorded. In particular, the 1 day death total jumped from 1960 to 3800, the highest number since last February, and over 400 higher than the single worst day of this summer’s Delta wave.
That deaths jumped higher simultaneously with cases raises a red flag not to put too much reliance on the numbers. The weekly averages also all jumped, as the data dumps are compared with the day before Thanksgiving, when there was very low reporting.
Nevertheless, the one week averages for all Census regions except the West are higher than the were 8 days ago, before the holiday dip. In particular, the Midwest recorded its highest one day average since last January, and about 3% higher than 8 days ago – unlike last year, when its post-Thanksgiving peak never exceeded its pre-Thanksgiving numbers. The spike was mainly driven by IL, IN, and OH.
In the Northeast, only ME and PA were lower than their average 8 days ago, and NY was only slightly higher. All the other States in New England jumped.
In addition to the data dump, it’s likely part of the jump is from people who contracted the virus over Thanksgiving dinner gatherings, and are now showing up at doctor’s offices and hospital ER’s.
We can expect the 7 day averages to continue to spike for at least two more days, until the holidays are out of the averages.
While the news is definitely not good, the nationwide average of 100,000 cases is well below that of 180,000 cases one year ago. Pending Omicron, of course.
lowtechcyclist
In a future defined by AGW inaction in the present, I wonder how long ‘historians’ will be a thing, as what remains of the human race struggles to survive in those temperate areas that remain in the polar regions.
New Deal democrat
I’m not sanguine at all about the vaccination data. I went back and checked my data from 5 months ago till now. During that entire period, nationwide only 13% more adults became fully vaccinated. In my county, in the entire last month, only 2% of adults got fully vaccinated. The US is basically hitting a wall at the 70% mark, and only about 50% of teens are getting vaccinated, thanks to their parents who still think they are Young Invulnerables.
Kay
@debbie:
I’ve really been trying to understand them, because we have some of the highest covid rates in the state so I’m surrounded by them and I think what has happened is they have been propagandized into believing none of the mitigations or interventions “work” so they have a wholly fatalistic approach- no avoidance or prevention works so it’s just random who lives and who dies.
They’ll say things like “covid causes heart problems but the vaccine does too” and shrug. I think “the vaccine causes heart problems” can be specifically tied to ONE covid propagandist, Alex Bereneson, who regularly apears on Fox. He’s probably killed 100,000 people.
There’s no way to fight thru this thicket of misinformation. You reach the people who can still be reached and give up on the rest.
Ohio Mom
@debbie: I’ve long assumed my family was staying in Ohio because Ohio Son has a state-based Medicaid Waiver and he has a strong network of service providers here.
But lately I am questioning if this state is really where we want to stay, especially when nonsense like this “Let’s ban mandates for ALL vaccines” comes out of the statehouse. They are completely unmoored. It’s frightening to consider what they’ll come up with next.
Dan B
@Betty Cracker: It’s especially galling that DeathSanta is paying UI of people who refused vaccinations with Covid Relief funds from the Federal Givernment.
Then again he is starting a Florida run militia that he will control.
Fun times!
//
New Deal democrat
In contrast to Trevor Bedford, Dr. Jorge Caballero is sticking to his guns that Omicron originated during August, and probably in Europe first:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1466501186450649089
“How long has #Omicron been around? Virologists are slowly working their way to where I am: it likely emerged sometime in mid-to-late August. Initial clusters were either misclassified as Alpha or undetected altogether due different/mild symptoms.”
“My money is on European origin, sometime in mid-to-late August (but that’s just my take based on the data)”
And interesting speculation from Dr. Angela Rasmussen. She disagrees with the idea that Omicron was misclassified for months during screenings (what Caballero believes) and instead sees two probabilities:
https://mobile.twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1466409998628573184
“that leaves two hypotheses on the table: intrahost evolution in a persistently infected host or spillback/reverse zoonosis/zooanthroponosis in another species.”
She thinks spillback from an animal reservoir is most likely.
Dan B
@Ohio Mom: When we flee to Vancouver (because gay) you can have our house. Hi Jay! How’s that spare bedroom / broom closet?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
When I went to the grocery store this week huge line at the pharmacy for walk in booster shots. While it good to see Fake America is getting covered, it was a bit self defeating I though; risk getting infect to get the shot to not get infected.
WereBear
@Cermet: Apparently we have played out both the Black Death and the 1918 Flu in exactly the same ways, so one conclusion is: some of us won’t learn.
p.a.
Biden: last xmas, 1% of americans vaccinated. this xmas, 72% vaccinated.
There’s that number again: 27%! (MoE)
Dan B
@WereBear: I wonder if we will surpass the 1918 flu in percentage of the population dead. But I believe we’re only halfway there, at least by the official count.
Eunicecycle
@debbie: At the risk if repeating myself from a dead thread last night, my daughter works at 2 hospitals (one just as needed). Both have removed their vaccine mandate due to the court case in our circuit. Now the idiots that didn’t get vaccinated won’t get fired. It is infuriating in HOSPITALS to be so weak. But they still require the flu vaccine! One of the hospital systems she works for is the Cleveland Clinic!
Wvng
I’ve been watching the spectacle of the world’s #1 tennis player, Djokovich, refusing to get vaccinated and Australia saying he can’t play in the Australian Open or enter the country if he doesn’t. He really really wants to establish himself as the greatest player ever, he needs to win more majors to do it, but he won’t get vaccinated. Turns out he WOULD vaccinate with either the Russian or Chinese vaccines, but neither is on the list of internationally approved vaccines due to lack of efficacy data and/or data showing them to be less effective than the approved vaccines. So he is making A geopolitical statement, even as actual Russian tennis players (he’s Serbian) are properly vaccinated. Insanity.
Soprano2
@mrmoshpotato: Somehow I don’t think it “owns” people when you do something that kills you.
It’s like the joke about the redneck’s last words being “Hey, watch this!”.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@debbie:
@Kay:
This is literally insane. I hate this fucking state
Soprano2
@Betty Cracker: I believe you, because he’s like TFG would be if he were smart and somewhat politically savvy. TFG’s incompetence saved us a lot of grief.
YY_Sima Qian
The Delthia Ricks tweet on India’s vaccination progress is strange, citing an article dating from more than a month ago. The current data I can see from Google for India is 1.26B doses injected, or 92 shots / 100 persons, & 34% of population fully vaccinated, 58% of population w/ at least 1 shot. That makes India middling at best in terms of COVID-19 vaccination coverage, not one of the most vaccinated country of earth. I do wish India’s vaccination program accelerates before Omicron hits in force, especially if the variant escapes a greater percentage of immunity from prior infection of other variants.
marklar
@Ohio Mom: You might want to look a little eastward. You mentioned a while back that your son is wired in a way similar to my son. PA has a waiver for that as well, and while we have a legislature with somewhat similar pathologies as Ohio’s, they make up a smaller proportion of representatives (although still the majority…although we still tend to elect Democratic governors).
I know that his Medicaid Waiver here in PA is one of the things that will likely keep me here when I retire in a decade or so, so I get where you are coming from.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Eunicecycle:
Maybe the hospitals could fire them for other reasons? At-will employment after all. Do you know if this decision is being appealed?
Soprano2
@New Deal democrat: I’ve been thinking about this. What if we can’t reach 85-90% people vaccinated? I’m afraid we’re going to have to figure out how to deal with that as a permanent situation. In my county less than half of the eligible population is fully vaccinated, and we’re probably the highest county around here. People who live in liberal areas have no idea how things are in places like where I live. I’m going to think it’s wonderful if we get up to 60% fully vaccinated!
Soprano2
Same thing here. Our regular customer whose aunt and uncle died of Covid and left their 12-year-old daughter an orphan (both not vaccinated, of course) still refuses to get vaccinated. She’s a full-on Trumper who believes in the ivermectin kind of crap. I’ve got another regular customer who is a nurse who gives Covid shots; she despairs to me about the amount of people she knows who won’t get the shots in spite of her telling them they should and that it’s safe. If a nurse you know tells you this and you still refuse, who else can get through to you?
Soprano2
@WereBear: It just reinforces my belief that human nature doesn’t change at all.
Soprano2
I scheduled my booster for Sunday, after our concert tonight. I figure if I feel like crap I can just take Monday off. I took a rapid Covid test at choir last night; they made everyone take them to make sure no one is infected. We’ll be taking another one tonight. I wish our government would make them free or really cheap, because I would probably take one once a week if they were cheap. I can start doing that once my insurance has to reimburse me for them.
I’m hearing all this panic about Omicron and getting pretty impatient with it. If you were willing to do something like travel with Delta everywhere, why would you suddenly think you need to cancel that travel just because there’s a new Covid variant? It makes no fucking sense to me. It’s amazing how people can panic about something they know almost nothing about. It might turn out that Omicron is more infectious but less lethal; not being a scientist, it seems logical to me for a virus to evolve in this way. Killing off the host is counterproductive.
Another Scott
@Eunicecycle: I expect the mandates to be okayed eventually. The SCOTUS hasn’t taken the path of allowing the “religion trumps all” path when offered in addressing vaccine mandates. They’ll probably throw wrenches in it – that’s what they do – but let it stand.
SCOTUSBLOG
Good luck.
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@Soprano2: Mississippi was stuck at 40% for a while. It’s over 50% now. We just have to keep pushing and not give up. It takes time, but can happen – especially with mandates.
Hang in there.
Cheers,
Scott.
Elizabelle
@Wvng: Maybe a lucrative sponsor or two could drop Djokovich.
That might get his attention.
Eunicecycle
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): That’s the whole problem – the hospitals are wimping out. They were using the federal mandate to say “it’s not our fault-it’s a government mandate!” Just amazing from medical professionals in the midst of a pandemic. I hope Scott (above) is right and the SC will eventually okay it. And my daughter is pregnant and will deliver in a hospital where she used to work L&D, and she knows many of her former co-workers had been Trumpers. So she’s a little worried about delivering there. But the CC has reduced the number of hospitals that deliver babies to a handful, so she doesn’t have much choice.
YY_Sima Qian
@Wvng: Australia, like the US, has approved the Chinese Sinovac & Sinopharm vaccines for the purpose of entry by foreigners, because these vaccines have been approved by the WHO. Furthermore, the two (really three, because there are 2 Sinopharm vaccines) have accounted for over 4B shots injected around the world (or slightly > 50% of the total), including nearly 2B outside of China. Efficacy data had been published by multiple national heath authorities where Stage III trials were conducted (Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, the UAE, etc.), as well as real life data from mass vaccination (Chile, Uruguay, Brazil, etc.). Bottom line, Chinese inactivated whole virion vaccines have lower efficacy/effectiveness than the mRNA ones, likely somewhere in between AZ-Oxford and J&J, closer to the former, for symptomatic infection. They are very effective against hospitalization & death, but protection may wane more quickly than mRNA vaccines & may be more so in the elderly. They also have no side-effect of note, though, so less risky for those with allergies. They helped much of South America & the Gulf States avoid a massive Delta wave (or at least attenuated/abbreviated the wave) in combination w/ other NPI measures.
The process took longer than western vaccines, and were messier (largely because Chinese vaccine manufacturers had little experience managing multiple international trials in different countries to obtain international approval).
Really, western MSM has done its share of misinformation through the course of the pandemic.
Not sure what is Djokovic’s excuse for still being unvaccinated. He was being an *ss since the 1st wave in Spring 2020, got himself infected organizing a public tennis tournament in Serbia, while most of Europe was locking down.
WereBear
@Eunicecycle: For so long such middle of the country places still boasted fine care and research, but how long can that last when they are eroding quality of living in those same places?
Buskertype
The reason cases are down or holding steady in WV right now, in addition to the fact that we’re just coming off a nasty wave of delta, is that nearly the whole state closes for the week of thanksgiving (ie. the first week of traditional deer season)
Another Scott
@Wvng: Joker is an amazing athlete, but a stupid human. He got COVID early on after going out partying. He probably thinks that he’s “healthy” and in no danger…
Grrr…
Mandated vaccination is the way forward.
Cheers,
Scott.
Sloane Ranger
Thursday, in the UK we had 53,945 new cases. The rolling 7-day average is up by 2.8%. New cases by nation,
England – 45,880 (up 4361 from Wednesday)
Northern Ireland – 2272 (up 280 from Wednesday)
Scotland – 3002 (up 206 from Wednesday)
Wales – 2791 (up 724 from Wednesday.)
Deaths – There were 141 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday. The rolling 7-day average is down by 3%. 104 deaths were in England, 2 in Northern Ireland, 27 in Scotland and 8 in Wales.
Testing – 1,185,577 tests took place on Wednesday 1 December. The rolling 7-day average was up by 4.8% on that date. The PCR testing capacity reported by labs on that date was 764,013.
Hospitalisations – As of Tuesday, 30 November there were 7644 people in hospital and 931 on ventilators. The rolling 7-day average for hospital admissions was down by 6.5% as of 28 November.
Vaccinations – As of Wednesday, 1 December,51,020,285 people had received 1 shot of a vaccine, 46,431,662 had had 2 and 19,015,975 had had a 3rd shot/booster. This means that 88.7% of all UK residents aged 12+ had had 1 shot of a vaccine by that date, 80.7% had had 2 and 33.1% had had a 3rd shot/booster.
Ken
That first tweet captures something I’ve been thinking since the omicron news broke. People largely seemed to be behaving as if COVID was over, despite the still-awful numbers. And then COVID says “I will not be ignored” in its best Glenn Close voice.
Eunicecycle
@WereBear: My daughter is hoping, that at least at the Cleveland Clinic, most people are already vaccinated because the deadline was Dec. 4. Not sure if that meant the employees had to have the second shot by then or be 2 weeks past the second shot. I think it is the former. Statistically it seems most places with a mandate had around 95% compliance, although the 5% were loud.
Barbara
@marklar: My sister provides residential-based care to developmentally disabled adults in PA, all covered by Medicaid, and her sense is that PA is relatively better than other states in providing services for this population. FWIW.
New Deal democrat
@Soprano2: “What if we can’t reach 85-90% people vaccinated? I’m afraid we’re going to have to figure out how to deal with that as a permanent situation.“
Boosters every 6 months for you and me.
And never dining inside ever again, or traveling by plane or train if the unvaccinated are allowed onboard.
I used to snowbird in Florida. Now I doubt I will ever be able to do that again.
Wvng
@YY_Sima Qian: The article I saw must have gotten it wrong then. Or, rather, his father’s rant confused me. ““What is a recognized vaccine, Mr. Craig? Russian vaccine is not recognized? According to our criteria, only Chinese and Russian are recognized. The libertarian world has 90 percent of the world’s population. For us, it is Russian and Chinese. Recognize them and we will vaccine, with pleasure.”
https://www.sbnation.com/tennis/2021/12/1/22811887/novak-djokovic-australian-open-2022-vaccination-blackmail-quotes
Wvng
@Buskertype: Here in Hardy County, WV we’ve had the most deaths over the past two weeks than any other two week period.
Wvng
@New Deal democrat: So, we can only live our lives fully in blue states that mandate vaccination for indoor public spaces going forward. As a red state resident I hate that but don’t disagree.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@New Deal democrat: Chill out; the natural course of these pandemics is each mutation is less dangerous than the one before. At some point in the next year or two it will cross the point were if you’re vaccinated and get exposed it’s only a cold and just annoying, rather than life threatening.
Jay
@Dan B:
1 bedroom apt, no broom closet, but the couch has 2 settees and is nice and soft. We have lots of pillows, and really good, comfy sleeping bags. With a brief heads up, I can get a decent airmattress as well.
smith
In the interests of accuracy, Laurie Garrett above is incorrect in calling FL a low-vax state. Of the 50 states plus DC, 21 have 60% or more of their total population fully vaxxed. FL is the only red state in this group. The wonder of FL is how badly they did during the delta surge even with a relatively good vax rate.
Mel
@Ohio Mom: Also in Ohio. My family has 10 generation deep roots here.
I’m thinking about where we might be able to relocate now, too. It’s always been a very mixed bag, but seemed worth the fight until now. As of the past year, I’m thinking that might not be the case anymore.
YY_Sima Qian
@Wvng: His father does not sound like the most well informed, or rational, person. Probably has consumed too much Russia misinformation.
Barbara
@smith: As Andy Slavitt has said, the issue isn’t the difference between a state with 65% and another with 72% rate of vaccine. The issue is those counties (or age group or other defined population) within the state with much lower than average rates. They infect each other at an alarming rate and it’s why the rest of us feel like it’s never-ending. Still pissed at my SIL’s sister and husband giving us panic over their refusal to get vaxxed and subsequent positive test, though we have all tested negative so far.
YY_Sima Qian
@Wvng: Considering the diverging paths between blue & red states in voting rights, abortion rights, gun control, public education, in addition to vaccination (& public health in general), the US is shaping up to have some really stark contradictions (as Lenin might phrase it).
smith
@Barbara: I agree that the real contrast is in different subpopulations, and also the behaviors that increase or decrease your risk. Not masking or staying out of indoor crowds when the local level of infection is high is also important. Just being vaxxed in those circumstances is probably not enough.
Mel
@Ohio Mom: Also in Ohio. My family has 10 generation deep roots here.
I’m thinking about where we might be able to relocate now, too. It’s always been a very mixed bag, but seemed worth the fight until now. As of the past year, I’m thinking that might not be the case anymore.
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Not necessarily in agreement with you on pandemic pathogens always evolving to always be less dangerous. Ebola? Bubonic Plague? TB? (Yes, those last two are bacterial, not viral, but still illustrate that not all pathogens lose lethality to aid their survival in hosts) Dengue Fever? Influenza? Polio was controlled by comprehensive, mandatory vaccination, not by evolution of the virus towards a milder form. Same with flu. We still are seeing that new strains of influenza are sometimes less, but sometimes more infectious and/or pathogenic.
It will be great if evolving for significantly lower lethality is the course that Cocid-19 eventually takes, but we cannot say with any certainty based upon the evidence available right now that that is what’s going to happen.
I agree that it’s too early to say what Omicron will do. Maybe it will be more transmissible but less lethal. Maybe it won’t. Maybe the next variant, or the next after that, or one 10 years down the road will evolve to co-exist better with its hosts, but as for right now, we have to deal with the realities of right now.
Caution and consistently taking all possible precautions, right now and for the foreseeable future, are just common sense and common decency in my opinion.
My nephew and his wife are very careful. They are both double vaxxed and boosted, and their two elementary school aged kiddos are vaccinated. Their toddler is unvaccinated due to age limits. Everybody masks, everybody washes their hands, everybody carries hand sanitizer.
One of the adults broke down and had dinner with a (vaccinated, masking) friend. That adult felt like it was likely safe. The two of them socially distanced, ate at a less busy time in the restaurant, and wore their masks except when eating.
That adult contracted Covid-19. Now, the spouse and the unvaccinated toddler are sick as well and both have tested positive. And (surprise surprise) the rapid tests were negative for the rest of the family during the four or five day incubation period. If they hadn’t been careful and hadn’t immediately self-quarantined when the first adult developed symptoms, imagine how many others they would have infected during that period.
So, I respectfully disagree with you, and about the chilling out part. I’ve lost 3 people to Covid pre-vaccines, one fully vaxxed older relative, and know three people who are struggling with nightmarish long Covid.
Now, we are all worried beyond words while my relatives and their little boy suffer through this.
Please, I am asking – for your safety and for the sake of all the people who love you and would be lost without you – please be sure to take precautions. Stay safe for your sake and for the sake of those who care about you. Stay careful for the sake of people like my little great-niece, like my deceased friends and aunt, and like me (immunosuppressed due to autoimmune illness).
You matter. We all do.
The vaccines are the closest thing to a miracle I’ll see in my lifetime. They work. They are saving lives and reducing illness every single day. But no vaccine is perfect, and we need to be aware that even if someone is in great health, fully vaxxed, and gets nothing more than an asymptomatic infection, they could pass that on unintentionally, even completely unknowingly, to many someones who won’t have a positive outcome.
Please don’t take this the wrong way. I really do get how stressful and how life-changing for the worse all the precautions / restrictions are. I just don’t want you or anymore people to needlessly lose their own life or their longterm health to this pandemic, or to feel the regret and fear that my relatives are feeling right now, or the grief of losing a loved one to this pandemic.
Robert Sneddon
The number of Omicron variant cases in Scotland is now up from 13 to 29. Six of the new cases are traced to a concert by the band Steps at the SSE Hydro in Glasgow on 22nd November. This seems to indicate an infection to detection or symptom period for Omicron variant cases of about ten days or so given most of the earlier cases reported a couple of days ago were from a social event on the 20th of November. It also adds to the growing understanding that the Omicron variant is highly communicable. There have been no details on the vaccination status of the people with confirmed cases of Omicron variant or whether any of them have required hospitalisation.
The Steps tour has been postponed after COVID-19 was confirmed in the band’s touring party.
Generally in Scotland the number of new cases each day remains in the 2000 to 3000 region but the numbers of hospitalisations, ICU bed occupancy and reported daily deaths are falling slowly.
Barbara
@Mel: Apparently some pathogens are stable, but coronaviruses are known to be relatively mutagenic. The wild measles virus, for instance, is considered to be remarkably stable. If you got vaxxed or had the disease, you basically don’t need to worry about it unless something happens to your immune system more generally. To me, the most interesting pathogen is chicken pox. It’s mostly mild (assuming you are not immunocompromised) but it somehow lives in your body and can re-emerge as shingles later in life. Think how kids who have been vaccinated against chicken pox might never need to worry about shingles.
UncleEbeneezer
@rikyrah:
?
UncleEbeneezer
@Wvng: Fuck Djokovic. He’s been an anti-vaxer, Covid disinformation spreader and all-around asshole for his entire career. He’ll never be GOAT, no matter how many majors he wins.
Barbara
@Mel: Pardon me for saying that it is more likely that exposure resulted from some other contact than two fully masked vaccinated people having dinner across a table. I know, it’s not impossible that it occurred the way you stated, but it’s unlikely. The real point is that you have no idea whether people you come in casual contact with are vaccinated or transmitting Covid.
Another Scott
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
The trade-off model is now widely accepted. It emphasises that each host-pathogen combination must be considered individually. There is no general evolutionary law for predicting how these relationships will pan out, and certainly no justification for evoking the inevitability of decreased virulence.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@smith: It’s hard to trust Florida’s numbers. Their vaccination rate is claimed by some to be affected by “vaccine tourism” from Latin America. There are other counties/areas that supposedly have vaccination rates over 100% (for similar reasons, or maybe from people in the next state/county over coming in, or maybe extra doses per vial are counted even if not give, or …). True? No idea.
“Never give a known liar the benefit of a doubt” – dsquareddigest
Cheers,
Scott.
smith
@Another Scott: There may in fact be wonkiness in numbers beyond FL as well. I’m having a hard time believing CDC’s report that 99.9% of Americans 65 and over have had at least one shot. There is nothing I can think of that could characterize virtually every member of as large a group as the olds in the US. There have got to be some terminally ornery old coots out there. In fact, I’m sure that some of the Herman Cain Award winners were 65+.
Bill Arnold
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
It will never be just a cold. It infects tissues in a way (ACE2) that has never been widespread before (original SARS only, and it was never pandemic), and the long term consequences of this have not been fully worked out (given less than 2 years of recorded history). It infects tissues not infected by other coronaviruses. E.g. It could be that every year, we face a small risk of permanent damage, to e.g. heart, lungs, kidneys, pancreas, brain, with the risk depending on the level of precautions taken.
Over even a moderate period, that would significantly decrease expected lifespan and even more significantly decrease healthy lifespan. Might lower the average national IQ(/brain function) in countries that take this “live with it” approach.
Since this is a possibility (even a likelihood) it needs to be part of the conversation/risk calculation.
(Jim Jordan is a psychopath. DeSantis, too. Sorry; had to say it.)
The Lodger
Is Amir all right? I don’t see a report from him today.
Soprano2
I personally think this is way too paranoid for a vaccinated person. One purpose of vaccines in general is to allow you to live a normal life, not to 100% avoid ever getting the disease. Saying you’ll “never dine inside again” is kind of extreme, isn’t it? Are you never going to do anything inside a building again? Because a lot of other activities take place “inside”, and wouldn’t they be just as hazardous as dining? This is the kind of thing that makes conservatives believe liberals are “forever maskers” who don’t want us to ever be able to have a “normal” life again.
Cermet
@Eunicecycle: If the hospital decided to play hardball it is easy; make a policy that any one without a covid vax can’t interact with any person. Since that means they can’t do any job, they simply don’t get paid – they are still officially an employee but get no pay status; not fired or even loss of their employment. Its what the federal government does all the time – if someone loses a clearance they can’t do their job, but aren’t fired – just not paid.
Cermet
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: maybe and maybe not – the rate of decrease in its lethality is random – its not linear but rather a random walk. While evolution drives it towards being less lethal how it does that is not a straight line at all and it can become more lethal – see the 1918 flu; it was mild the first major time around then after a year or so became super lethal.
Matt McIrvin
@Another Scott: According to MA state numbers, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard have way over 100% of eligible adults vaccinated. I assume this is some similar artifact but it’s hard to say exactly what.
Matt McIrvin
@Soprano2: I have considered the possibility, at various times, that we need to close down all restaurants, bars, theaters, conventions, etc. forever–go to an isolated social existence like Forster’s “The Machine Stops”. Just dynamite them all and accept that we’re going to be hermits forever.
But that was before it was even clear that we could have an effective vaccine in the first place. It honestly appears that sustained mass vaccination, with ongoing boosters for new variants, combined with new antiviral treatments could turn this into a manageable disease.
The deranged politicization of it means that in some parts of the country, it might be 20 or 30 years before penetration of the vaccines is really high. But, you know, we’ve been there before.
J R in WV
@Eunicecycle:
Interesting post, but am left with a couple of questions:
1) “…used to work L&D…” what does “L&D” mean?
2) “But the CC has reduced…” what does “CC” mean?
Matt McIrvin
@Cermet: The virus doesn’t necessarily evolve to be less lethal–it’s not lethal enough now for there to be a huge selection pressure against lethality. Evolving greater transmissibility and immune escape works for the virus, and those can also increase lethality.
But what does work in that direction is human immune systems. And not just by a grotesque, deadly culling of the immune-deficient; a kind of forced evolution happens *within* an individual’s immune system, called affinity maturation. It’s pretty amazing.
COVID-19 killed as many people as it did because humans were by and large not adapted to it. Immunity from prior infection is iffy and not foolproof against new mutations, but it is there and some of it is cross-variant. Vaccination does the same thing but with greater strength and less harm done–and the immunity it induces can be cross-variant too.
I think we’re always going to have new outbreaks of new variants, it’ll be a race with the virus, but much as with H1N1 flu, they will be less deadly because our bodies will nevertheless be more ready for them than they were at the end of 2019.
J R in WV
@The Lodger:
Comment # 11. You just missed it, he’s right on again. A real pro!
Another Scott
@J R in WV: I assume Labor and Delivery, and Clinical Center.
Corrections welcome.
HTH!
Cheers,
Scott.
Mel
@Barbara: That is actually part of the point I was making. Because we can’t know if others are asymptomatically infected, because we can’t predict who will have a mild case or a severe case if they do become infected, because we can’t know who is vaccinated and who is not in a grocery store, post office line, etc., and also because we really can’t know if others around us are at high risk unless we know them personally, we should not assume that it is safe to let our guard down yet out of pandemic fatigue or an as yet unfounded hope that the virus will become quickly less pathogenic.
My personal feeling is that, even though masks and vaccines do a tremendous job in reducing infections and serious cases, if you or your loved one is in the 3% or so that does become seriously ill or pass away, the stats are cold comfort indeed.
Yes, I absolutely agree that it is significantly less likely that masked, fully vaccinated people will transmit Covid or become seriously ill if they do contract it, and that is why getting more vaccines in more people and having / enforcing consistent vaccine mandates is essential to getting the pandemic under control and reducing / slowing the development and spread if variants.
However, in situations where masks are on intermittently and ventilation is poor, chances of an infection taking place do increase somewhat, and people need to be aware of that and weigh the risks.
Some will feel that the risk is worth it because it is significantly reduced by vaccines. Some will feel that the risk is not worth it, especially if they have a vulnerable person in their lives.
I think we can readily agree that it comes down to personal choice in those situations, as long as a person is vaccinated and otherwise being responsible and taking precautions.
Just for clarification, the asymptomatic infected friend was /is the only known Covid positive contact prior to my relative and then their spouse and children becoming ill.
Family otherwise had largely been isolating as much as possible because of the unvaccinated toddler and two family members with asthma. That’s the only time anyone was in public without being fully masked the entire time, or was around a non-family member. Their pediatrician thinks it is highly likely that that is where the initial infection in the family was contracted, because of the direct exposure to an infected individual, the precautions taken in all other situations, and the time frames of the infections.
Fair Economist
@YY_Sima Qian:
Everything you say about Djokivic’s legal situation is correct; he’s just a lying ass providing a fake excuse for not getting vaxxed.
There is a huge problem for the chinese vaccines, tho. Inactivated virion vaccines don’t produce much cellular immunity. That means they will be hurt more by Omicron than the mRNA vaccines – neutralizing immunity will be heavily reduced by all the spike changes. They would only work via complement lysis from antibodies to the other, more conserved, viral components. Hopefully that will still be good enough.
Still, I wouldn’t want to be in the Chinese health ministry right now. They certainly made the right decision sticking with a Zero COVID strategy, though. Omicron makes the point that Zero COVID is good on a precautionary principle basis – it gives another layer of protection if there is some unanticipated worsening of the COVID situation. Regions just going with a “live with COVID” strategy are extremely hard-pressed to deal with a significantly more dangerous COVID variant.