Mostly for the closing line…
GOD'S TECH SUPPORT pic.twitter.com/Aka1yAgkmc
— Brittlestar (@brittlestar) December 9, 2021
The US will hit 800,000 Covid deaths by next wk. Without vaccine mandates we’ll reach one million Covid deaths in America by Q1-2 next yr. For last 6 months + from now until Q1-2 2022, almost all of these deaths among unvaccinated. Roughly 350,000 lives senselessly thrown away
— Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD (@PeterHotez) December 9, 2021
Very badly. I've run some numbers, and we have almost 300,000 deaths before we get there. https://t.co/Y21NsnbYTF
— Cheryl Rofer (@CherylRofer) December 10, 2021
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What can #COVID19 vaccine manufacturers do to help vaccinate the world quickly? @CEPIvaccines @GaviSeth @wto @NOIweala @DrTedros @GitaGopinath @IMFNews @wef @IFPMA @WorldBank @JNkengasong @_AfricanUnion https://t.co/7qfAOe66LV
— Soumya Swaminathan (@doctorsoumya) December 9, 2021
China reports 43 new asymptomatic coronavirus cases on Dec 9 vs 33 a day earlier https://t.co/3eRmE3v5PG pic.twitter.com/SwmEXA1Mo9
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 10, 2021
China's domestic air traffic recovery faltering due to zero-COVID policy https://t.co/t7xuvMwXIZ pic.twitter.com/u8jEmuYdXV
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 10, 2021
New coronavirus infections in South Korea have exceeded 7,000 for the third consecutive day in a record-breaking surge that has crushed hospitals and threatens the country’s goals to weather the pandemic without lockdowns. https://t.co/LKcSuCRRI9
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 10, 2021
S.Korea to cut COVID-19 booster shot interval again as infections rise https://t.co/sc3gHhCAAb pic.twitter.com/9KS4VlqHgg
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 10, 2021
Japan detects eight new Omicron infections, bringing total to 12 https://t.co/bZiqryNc0E pic.twitter.com/3mZkqLTzqZ
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 10, 2021
Singapore reports first locally transmitted Omicron case https://t.co/BDo0kmhxhZ pic.twitter.com/yroLbrQp64
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 10, 2021
Australia will begin administering COVID-19 vaccines for children aged 5 to 11 from January 10, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said, after the rollout cleared final regulatory hurdles https://t.co/VLrLGFPCem pic.twitter.com/YnGty0PVE4
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 10, 2021
South Africa will offer booster doses of the Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccines as the Omicron coronavirus variant drives daily infections towards record highs https://t.co/PWAYfBGJC5
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 10, 2021
South African scientists see no sign that the Omicron coronavirus variant is causing more severe illness, they said on Friday, as officials announced plans to roll out vaccine boosters with daily infections approaching an all-time high…
Hospital data show that COVID-19 admissions are now rising sharply in more than half of the country’s nine provinces, but deaths are not rising as dramatically and indicators such as the median length of hospital stay are reassuring…
South Africa reported more than 22,000 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, a record during the current fourth wave of infections driven by Omicron but still below a peak of more than 26,000 daily cases during a third wave fuelled by the Delta variant.
It has fully vaccinated about 38% of adults, more than in many other African countries but well short of the government’s year-end target. It recently delayed some vaccine deliveries due to oversupply as the pace of inoculations slowed…
Glenda Gray, president of the South African Medical Research Council, said there were far more unvaccinated people among South Africa’s hospital admissions and the evidence was that the Pfizer vaccine was still offering protection.
“We are seeing that this vaccine is maintaining effectiveness. It may be slightly reduced, but we are seeing effectiveness being maintained for hospital admissions and that is very encouraging,” she said.
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.@US_FDA has authorized Pfizer booster shots for 16- & 17-years olds, without asking its vax expert panel for advice. @CDCDirector isn't expected to ask #ACIP either. This approach sidesteps what would likely have been lengthy discussion about myocarditis. https://t.co/HaTidiJQDt
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) December 9, 2021
Interesting update on the #Covid boosters for 16-17 yos story.
This is a "may" recommendation from @CDCgov, not a "should." That has repercussions for things like vaccine mandates, as @walidgellad has been noting. https://t.co/HaTidiJQDt pic.twitter.com/njcZJSBHMi— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) December 9, 2021
Omicron may require a 4th vaccine dose sooner than expected, Pfizer says. Boosters are likely to help control the variant, according to the company, which said early lab experiments suggest the standard 2-dose regimen still guards against severe illness https://t.co/Hh7YYDpIfr
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 9, 2021
Changes in the blood—not the heart—may underlie cardiac problems in Covid patients. Hospitalized patients are at high risk of heart injury. Viral RNA—a sign of viral infiltration—has not been found in autopsied hearts. New study shows clotting at the core https://t.co/lJZZ13cORk
— delthia ricks ?? (@DelthiaRicks) December 8, 2021
To me one of the most interesting features in the evolution of #SARSCoV2 has been that variants so far all seem to have arisen independent of each other, not building on each other. They are all “1st generation” variants.
Tom argues we’d better worry about “2nd gen variants” too https://t.co/x8zkyqwrdA— Kai Kupferschmidt (@kakape) December 9, 2021
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The Nat'l Guard has been asked to help staff hospitals in at least 4 states as another coronavirus surge is waylaying healthcare systems. The largest Indiana hospital network asked the Guard for assistance. Hospitalizations there have jumped 49% in 2 weeks https://t.co/yhV6XsAYQW
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 10, 2021
An Amtrak executive told Congress on Thursday the railroad doesn’t expect to have enough people to operate all of its trains next month, when a federal coronavirus vaccination mandate takes effect. https://t.co/AzwvUg6Zue
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) December 9, 2021
A surprise year-end decree by New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio ordering virtually all businesses to get workers vaccinated has sowed confusion and frustration — and could set off a holiday dash to force vaccine holdouts to choose between jabs or jobs. https://t.co/dOrTecpfj4
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 9, 2021
Why is @NYCMayor still insisting that it's safe to pack 100s of 1000s of revelers into Times Square this New Year's Eve? Given our soaring #COVID19 numbers, this is nuts, no, @NYCSpeakerCoJo @DrMaryTBassett @NYCComptroller @ericadamsfornyc https://t.co/NnwSRI0XTf
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) December 9, 2021
“100% of COVID-19 patients in Marquette’s ICU right now are unvaccinated, and those unvaccinated patients have kept the ICU full for months…Beds are opening up because COVID-19 patients are dying.” https://t.co/kcNQXablUh
— Catherine Rampell (@crampell) December 9, 2021
I’m genuinely curious regarding funerals like this one, do people gather around abs say, ‘Wow how ironic.’ or do friends and family not even acknowledge the virus he mocked ended up killing him
— Eric Boehlert (@EricBoehlert) December 10, 2021
37 people died of Covid in Connecticut in the past week. 29 (or 78%) of them were unvaccinated – even though less than 20% of adults are unvaxxed.
The death rate for unvaxxed ppl is currently 16x higher in CT than the death rate for vaxxed ppl of the same age.
— James Surowiecki (@JamesSurowiecki) December 10, 2021
And this week's numbers are not a one-off. They've been consistent (though boosters appear to be adding to protection a bit). Over the past three months, 530 ppl have died of Covid in CT. 387 of them (71%) were not fully vaccinated.
— James Surowiecki (@JamesSurowiecki) December 10, 2021
I don’t drive drunk, but whether to drive drunk is a personal choice that people have to make on their own. https://t.co/57TeCm746t
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 9, 2021
On The Road – Christopher Mathews – Iceland – The Lights of Darkness, Part Three
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
There were 550 new laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported on 12/9.
There were 40 positive home test results reported on 12/9.
506 individuals are hospitalized for COVID-19 in the Finger Lakes Region (no change since previous day). 118 of these patients are in ICU (no change from previous day).
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 5,058 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 2,683,523 cases. It also reports 41 deaths as of midnight, for an adjusted cumulative total of 30,787 deaths – 1.15% of the cumulative reported total, 1.17% of resolved cases.
Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.97.
353 confirmed cases are in ICU, 151 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 4,997 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,591,819 patients recovered – 96.6% of the cumulative reported total.
Seven new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 6,029 clusters. 250 clusters are currently active; 5,779 clusters are now inactive.
5,041 new cases today are local infections. 17 new cases today are imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 140,831 doses of vaccine on 9th December: 4,508 first doses, 7,332 second doses, and 128,791 booster doses. As of midnight, the cumulative total is 54,615,414 doses administered: 25,909,612 first doses, 25,485,174 second doses, and 3,412,576 booster doses. 79.3% of the population have received their first dose, while 78.0% are now fully vaccinated.
Sloane Ranger
Wow, normally I’m among the last to post!
Anyway, here the latest figures from the UK, where, yesterday, we had 50,867 new cases. The rolling 7-day average is up by 8%. Cases by home nation,
England – 43,550 (down 469)
Northern Ireland – 1819 (down 114)
Scotland – 3196 (up 119)
Wales – 2302 (down 11).
Deaths – There were 148 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday. The rolling 7-day average is up by 0.7%. 113 deaths were in England, 4 in Northern Ireland, 16 in Scotland and 15 in Wales.
Testing – 1,278,786 tests took place on Wednesday, 8th. The rolling 7-day average was up by 11.1%. The PCR testing capacity reported by labs on that date was 793,593.
Hospitalisations – There were 7347 people in hospital and 890 people on ventilators on Wednesday, 8th December. The rolling 7-day average for hospital admissions was up by 3.9% as of 5th December.
Vaccinations – As of Wednesday, 8th, 51,183,457 people had had 1 shot of a vaccine, 46,640,237 had had 2 and 21,715,504 had had a 3rd shot/booster. This means that, as of that date, 89% of all UK residents aged 12+ had had 1 shot, 81.1% had had 2 and 37.8% had had a 3rd shot/booster.
Matt McIrvin
The experts I follow seem to get really pissed off when statements by vaccine company CEOs drive the dialogue on whether more shots are needed.
gene108
I’ve encountered enough people on the internet to realize there are those who feel drunk driving is a personal choice. Only if you hit someone or cause damage some other way, should you get in trouble for drunk driving.
It’s sobering to realize so many people don’t care about the collective good, but only about their personal convenience.
It’s like the anti-seatbelt mandate folks all buzzed up to another level of you’re not the boss of me.
Jay
Here in BC, we are holding steady, low 300’s to 450 new cases each day, not exploding into the higher numbers, ( yet), deaths are down from early spring, probably due to our health care workers, and vaccines,
Omicron is here, but not like Alberta,
but winter is here, so it’s not like the brief lift of mandates back in early summer, when cases were around 30 a day.
the lift of the mandates lasted 2 weeks, before the numbers were back into the 300’s ranges.
New Deal democrat
Nationwide US cases at 117,700 vs. 95,800 average for the 7 days right before the Thanksgiving holiday, a 20% increase in 15 days. Deaths at 1189 vs. 1114 fifteen days ago. Holiday distortions appear to have ended.
Compared with 15 days ago, regionally, the West is essentially flat (although CA is up about 25% to 16 per 100,000), the Midwest (driven by IL, IN, KY, and OH in the Ohio Valley) and South (excluding the Gulf Coast States, which are flat) are up between 20% to 25%, but the Northeast (including every single State) is up over 50%!
Distressing that the heavily vaccinated Northeast is now doing so poorly, although I have read that this is mainly due to more rural, Trump-leaning counties. VT and RI have over 74% fully vaccinated, which – if they follow the EU example – is at the inflection point where the death rate becomes much lower. Interestingly, the national death rate has not begun to rise significantly yet, although we are over 4 weeks since the recent trough in cases.
I continue to think that worries of an EU-style huge winter wave in the US are overblown, although the fact that the Midwest has not followed last year’s pattern rules out the most optimistic scenario.
WereBear
Neighboring county (rural NY) declared a state of emergency. With two big hospitals…
Like we needed another reason to stay home at Christmas. We’re going to a fully vaxxed friend gathering and then battening down hatches again.
YY_Sima Qian
On 12/9 China reported 37 new domestic confirmed (4 previously asymptomatic) & 23 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 24 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 515 active domestic confirmed cases in the region.
Heilongjiang Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed case. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 41 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Shaanxi Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case. There are currently 2 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.
Shanghai Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. 2 residential compounds are currently at Medium Risk.
Jiangsu Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Zhejiang Province reported 5 new domestic confirmed & 23 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 26 active domestic confirmed & 44 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Chongzuo in Guangxi “Autonomous” Region did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case in the city.
At Guangzhou in Guangdong Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city. 1 quarantine hotel is currently at Medium Risk.
At Dalian in Liaoning Province 14 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 2 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 33 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
At Hebei Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 8 active confirmed cases in the province (6 at Shijiazhuang & 2 at Xinji).
At Rizhao in Shandong Province there currently are 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
At Chongqing Municipality there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
At Henan Province there currently are 54 active domestic confirmed cases remaining (42 at Zhengzhou & 12 at Zhoukou).
Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province reported 5 new domestic confirmed case (4 previously asymptomatic), the new domestic positive case is at Longchuan County (via screening of persons under centralized quarantine). 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 54 active domestic confirmed & 35 active domestic asymptomatic cases at the prefecture. 1 zone at Longchuan County is currently at High Risk. The Medium Risk village at Ruili has been re-designated to Low Risk.
Imported Cases
On 12/9, China reported 26 new imported confirmed cases (6 previously asymptomatic), 20 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in China, 31 confirmed cases recovered (14 imported), 9 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (7 imported) & 10 were reclassified as confirmed cases (6 imported), & 767 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 1,222 active confirmed cases in the country (473 imported), 29 in serious condition (2 imported), 508 active asymptomatic cases (413 imported), 1 suspect case (imported). 45,267 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 12/9, 2,582.74M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 7.809M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 12/10, Hong Kong reported 4 new positive cases, all imported (including 1 infected w/ the Omicron Variant coming from the US).
New Deal democrat
Several experts I follow seem to be coming around to a similar view on Omicron. For example:
https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1468328482761371649
“To sum things up, this is likely the best explanation for what we’ve seen to date. The potential for Omicron to result in less severe symptoms may be more a consequence of immunity than the virus evolving to become less virulent.”
In other words, the bad news is that Omicron is different enough to re-infect those already infected or vaccinated. The good news is that Omicron is similar enough that those already infected or vaccinated do have resistance, resulting in fewer bad cases.
Van Buren
In February 2020, my son and I crunched some numbers and came up with 400,000 COVID deaths, which I immediately dismissed because I just couldn’t wrap my brain around it. I have that same feeling today, I just can’t wrap my brain around the idea that this is permanent. But I can’t see how it’s not.
TheesherK
Proud to be a Nutmegger who doesn’t trust herd immunity.
Lining up my boister‐-I’ll leave that there–for next week.
rikyrah
@Van Buren: they didn’t need to die
That’s what I can’t get past
Bruce K in ATH-GR
Greece: the numbers seem to be falling a bit off the peak. Thursday’s 6pm report showed 5,253 new cases and 81 dead. 708 patients in ICUs intubated. Number-crunchers say the week-to-week numbers are down 11% for new cases and down 8% for new hospital admissions, but ICU admissions are up 8% and deaths up 3%. (source)
They also cite a rise in cases for the 50-65 age group (hello!), and find it concerning that only 50% of the people in that group have gotten boosted. (Makes me feel a lot less stupid for short-circuiting the system and getting that J&J shot while they were still refusing to accept my US Pfizer shots from the spring.)
mrmoshpotato
@rikyrah:
Exactly. Could’ve got vaccinated, but no. And now they’re dead, leaving behind family and friends.
I know it’s heartless, but 9+ months of a widely-available (Thanks Biden!) vaccine…
Matt McIrvin
@Van Buren: I think that, much as with flu, the level of harm from later waves will drop–not so much from the virus evolving as from human immune systems developing increased familiarity with COVID, from a combination of vaccination and prior infection. We’re not going to see half a million US deaths every year.
What worries me the most is that when the Republicans get back in on the federal level (when, not if) they will take steps to deny vaccines to blue areas.
stinger
Two boats and a helicopter… two boats and a helicopter.
Appreciate the reporting from non-USians.
fancycwabs
Has Nate Silver issued an apology yet for his “natural herd immunity” BS? And also his “Coronavirus was created in a labratory” BS?
Robert Sneddon
@Van Buren: An early SWAG from the epidemiological modellers back in early 2020 put the death toll in the US at 2 million without a miracle vaccine and insufficient actions to prevent the disease spreading widely. We got several miracles on the vaccination front and some action on prevention so a million actual deaths is actually on the better side of the predictions.
What they couldn’t predict was the impact on those who survived a serious case of infection and a year on a large number of those people are dying from chronic conditions but not directly from COVID-19 so they’re not counted in the tally.
Matt McIrvin
@Robert Sneddon: You could get there just with simple arithmetic. Suppose 60-70% of the population of US gets infected (probably low in hindsight). That’s about 200 million people. Assume 1% fatality, rough order of magnitude. That’s 2 million dead. You’re done.
I had some arguments with really sealiony people who refused to accept this every step of the way.
Matt McIrvin
…Oh, and it really sounds as if a variety of new treatments will cut the lethality and harm from COVID way down in people who do get it–if they can get it detected and treated in time. But those are also drugs that can be denied to political opponents by a hostile federal administration bent on mass murder, like Trump did with medical PPE.
WereBear
@TheesherK: As have I. Excelsior!
Robert Sneddon
@Matt McIrvin: “Assume 1% fatality, ”
You know what they say about assuming something… If you want to claim 2 million dead, you assume 200 million infected and assume 1% fatality and hey presto! you get the number you wanted.
From memory, and it was a long time back, the modellers were basing their estimates on SARS-COV-1 which was the nearest thing (a novel coronavirus) to the as-yet uncharacterised new virus causing sickness outbreaks in Wuhan. SARS-COV-1 had a Case Fatality Rate of over 10% peaking to perhaps 50% in older sufferers. What saved us that time was that SARS-COV-1 was not very infectious compared to SARS-nCOV-2 and especially to its later evolved variants and it just didn’t spread as widely or as quickly.
Matt McIrvin
@Robert Sneddon: ah, you’re talking REALLY early. Yeah, they would have been assuming a smaller outbreak of a more lethal virus.
I’m thinking more of the wild-type-COVID era when we already knew the IFR was on the order of magnitude of 1%. I recall best estimates pegging it at about 0.6-0.7 % actually which would have brought those numbers down a bit.
Once Delta showed up, that probably increased both the basic IFR and the threshold for herd immunity quite a lot. But by that point, a big chunk of the population was either vaccinated or already infected so we weren’t dealing with an immunologically naive populace any more.
Robert Sneddon
This would have been around February 2020 when every infective disease specialist on the planet was pulling the emergency handles and screaming at anyone that would listen that this was going to be BAD. Once the number of cases got to be significant enough that real conclusions could be drawn the IFR estimates were drastically scaled down as it was clear SARS-nCOV-2 was behaving very differently from its predecessor. The infection rate and R-value more than made up for it though.
Fair Economist
@New Deal democrat:
We’ve gotten thought the Thanksgiving holiday, which brings a lot of traveling and social contact, without the huge increase we got last year, so, yeah, a monster wave from Delta looks very unlikely. As to Omicron, we’ll see. There’s been a huge increase in wastewater COVID in Boston, which I’d think has to be Omicron, so I think a huge wave of infections is likely, although the continuing mild outcomes in S. Africa suggest the accompanying death wave won’t be too awful.
Fair Economist
@Matt McIrvin:
No, but the apparent steady state the UK has been at for 4 months now would work out to 200,000 deaths per years, which is *quite* bad enough. Here’s hoping additional immunity from repeat infections and the upcoming Pfizer treatment pill will cut that down.
VOR
@Fair Economist: The problem is the delay. I don’t know if Delta or Omicron are faster, but it can take 14 days for COVID to result in hospitalization. Then another 14 days before death. That means increased hospitalizations from Thanksgiving ought to be hitting right about now. And deaths from Thanksgiving infections will spike around Christmas. We won’t see the Christmas infections until January.
And my state’s ICUs are full and we have military personnel supplementing civilian hospital workers. And those doctors and nurses have been fighting this pandemic for nearly 2 years nonstop and are burned out. The hospitals just don’t have enough capacity to handle another surge.
Another Scott
Got my Pfizer booster late Tuesday afternoon. Woke up unusually early Wednesday morning. Took a nap Wednesday afternoon. Hives around my neckline Thursday morning (but I often get hives in the winter for no known reason.) Arm is still a tiny bit tender this morning, hives slowly fading. (No obvious reactions to either previous Pfizer shots.)
Otherwise, no issues.
Stay safe, everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
Matt McIrvin
@Fair Economist:
Around here (northern New England), it was almost exactly the same as the huge increase we got last year. Deaths seem maybe 50% lower, though it’s hard to tell at this point. But vaccination seems to be counterbalanced by Delta (and maybe Omicron but overwhelmingly mostly Delta) being way better at seeking out the unvaccinated and otherwise vulnerable.
TaMara (HFG)
Thanks for the Brittlestar tweet…checked out several of his tweets and really brightened my morning.
Boulder county does wastewater testing and unfortunately, it indicates we are looking at a grim few weeks. I’m vaxxed and boosted, so not worried, but hard to understand what’s going on – we have a high vax rate and when I’m out and about I’d say 90% are following the mask mandates. We should be doing better.
New Deal democrat
@Fair Economist:
“a huge increase in wastewater COVID in Boston, which I’d think has to be Omicron”
I think you are correct that it is from Omicron. I was thinking it may also explain the 50% surge in one week we saw in Michigan a few weeks ago. I suspect Omicron has been circulating in the US for about a month, but because we have been flying blind it is only now beginning to be realized.
I should revise my prior statement to say that I don’t think there will be a big *Delta* winter wave. But at some point in the next 4 to 6 weeks, Omicron will be very apparent in the numbers (but hopefully not in hospitalizations or deaths among the vaccinated).
Matt McIrvin
@TaMara (HFG): Most people everywhere still don’t have booster shots, which means Delta is perfectly capable of causing enough infection in them to show up in wastewater, even if they don’t get very sick. And Omicron can probably do the same even in boosted people.
And they’re both contagious enough that the remnant unvaxxed are much more likely to get infected than they were. Vaccinated people aren’t serving as effective enough firebreaks to keep them safe.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: I think it’s going to be Omicron and Delta together. They seem to be different enough that they won’t crowd one another out.
And while everyone in my social circles is running out to get booster shots, the majority of them don’t have them yet. Massachusetts is only something like 15 or 20% boosted right now. The drop-off between first and second shots was large enough that I can only imagine the gap with boosters will be even larger. We’re at the point where “being vaccinated” in the sense of having gotten at least one shot doesn’t mean what it used to–you need the whole series. And younger kids can’t even GET boosters yet.
Another Scott
@Matt McIrvin: The nurse that jabbed me said that even with things waning as far as antibodies go, “if you’ve had 2 shots, you’re still protected”. I think that’s right. Early reports out of the hospitals in SA indicate that while lots of people are hospitalized with COVID, they’re hospitalized for other reasons and haven’t needed oxygen (or vents).
It came up in the context of my J having some weird lingering symptoms that might or might not be correlated with getting her 2nd Pfizer months ago (sunburn-like burning sensations in various parts of her body, no sweating, lingering for extended periods (not like hot flashes). Her twin sister in Texas has had similar symptoms. Lots of tests have been done, but nothing unusual has been found yet.) I want her to get boosted, but she’s naturally reticent until she figures out what’s going on (or until she’s back to normal). She did a BinaxNOW test yesterday and (as we knew) she’s negative for COVID.
I have vague recollections of a tiny number of people having weird symptoms after the first shot that went away after the second – maybe things will be reset after her booster?? :-/
Cheers,
Scott.
Matt McIrvin
@Another Scott: Against severe disease? Yes, you’re still protected. Your chance of getting very sick or dying is quite low. (Though if you’re over, say, 75 years old or immunocompromised for some reason, you might have more to worry about.)
But with 2 shots several months ago, you may not have enough sterilizing immunity to avoid getting enough virus in you to test positive, or show up in a wastewater assay from your toilet. Particularly if Omicron has come to town.
Matt McIrvin
@Matt McIrvin:
Looked up the numbers and as of yesterday, it’s almost exactly 20%. With any luck that number goes up quickly.
NotMax
FYI (emphasis added).
Bill Arnold
This person (parody account, but serious here) expresses concisely the inner scream I’ve been masking for, oh, the last 1.5 years.
Matt McIrvin
@NotMax: Every bit of news about the COVID-risk/obesity connection makes me grit my teeth because this is such fodder for a certain kind of antivaxxer who uses it as whataboutism. “You bug me about getting vaccinated but you won’t stop being fat!”
IIRC the relative risk increase is real but modest–nothing in the ballpark of refusal to get vaccinated.
Matt McIrvin
@Bill Arnold: Some of the statements in that tweet are WAY out ahead of the evidence. We do not know that asymptomatic vaccinated people are all being subtly permanently damaged, though if you squint at the right papers and put them together you can easily jump to that conclusion.
There’s a certain kind of zero-COVID advocate who pushes the “vaccines are secretly useless” line without necessarily realizing it.
Bill Arnold
@Matt McIrvin:
Worse, these self-serving pharma executives are driving/providing fodder for new anti-vax influence operations. I think probably not deliberately, just that they’re arrogant and the press deferential to wealth/power, but it’s at least possible that they’re (psychopaths and) doing it deliberately to maximize future revenue.
Gravenstone
@Matt McIrvin: Hey, that bottom line has to enter the conversation eventually…
Fair Economist
@Matt McIrvin: Delta is capable of causing high rates still, but in the face of vax rates and previous infection, does *not* seem capable of extremely fast increases. I haven’t seen an Re estimate for it recently above 1.3. Omicron, OTOH, has insane growth rates – Omicron in the UK went up 10x in 10 days (they do a lot of sequencing so likely not an artifact.) If we’re seeing a near vertical growth in a highly vaxed area like Boulder, it almost has to be mostly Omicron.
Bill Arnold
@Matt McIrvin:
True, but it’s the way to bet; some damage to random blood vessels, at least, is statistically very likely once the virus is replicating in the body. (Not if stomped on by antibodies in the nose. N-95 (or equivalent) masks on to improve the odds.)
It’s how I’ve been betting for the last year and a half (since Feb 2020, really); that the long-term COVID-19 sequelae are to be avoided by not getting infected.
Fair Economist
@Bill Arnold: Pharma execs have complicated incentives. They are under legal requirements to not overstate their chances but also under investor pressure *to* overstate. They are also generally not scientists. I wish the media would not cite them because they are highly biased sources with mediocre expertise.
LongHairedWeirdo
Initially, I didn’t like the drunk driving metaphors, but they’ve grown on me. The most important thing, the thing that makes the metaphor *really* punch hard, is, you can be pretty drunk, and still drive home without causing injuries, *most of the time*, and *if nothing goes wrong*.
Would I drive a friend to a hospital, if I’d had a low dose of alcohol, taking boatloads of extra care? I might. If you’re not too drunk, knowing *exactly* how drunk you are helps you avoid mistakes. But I’m far too responsible to take even a *tiny* chance, unless there was some serious reason to do so (hence, the hypothetical hospital example).
Similarly, you can go maskless, *most of the time*, without injuring others. But you never *help* anyone by going maskless, and you might hurt them. And just like you don’t know that tonight’s the night the overpass is unexpectedly iced up, you can certainly infect people without being aware that you’re doing so.