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You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Saturday / Sunday, Dec. 11-12

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Saturday / Sunday, Dec. 11-12

by Anne Laurie|  December 12, 20213:46 am| 41 Comments

This post is in: COVID-19, Foreign Affairs

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Remember in the movie Jaws, when everyone was angry about beach closures even as a great white shark was actively killing people and those in power chose to let people swim anyway? This is what #COVID reminds me of. We know what works, but people choose to do the exact opposite.

— George#VotesBlueAlways (@Numbers28) December 10, 2021


Given the rate at which people are currently dying from #Covid in the United States — +1000 deaths a day — the pandemic's death toll in this country will top 800,000 in the next few days.
A year with 80,000 flu deaths is a really bad flu season. #SoNotTheFlu pic.twitter.com/DoZEOFF8NC

— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) December 11, 2021

CDC's vaccination data may overestimate 1st vaccine doses & underestimate boosters. State & county data, which CDC relies on for stats, don't always link records of people’s boosters & initial shots. A booster may be recorded as if it were a 1st dose https://t.co/Do8VP5Bz73

— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 11, 2021

Companies are rethinking their plans to send workers back to the office as the new omicron variant adds another level of uncertainty. Google and Ford are among those once again delaying their return-to-office plans. #APWeekendReads https://t.co/ZukSSGEZ5e

— The Associated Press (@AP) December 11, 2021

======

What Data Shows About Vaccine Supply and Demand in the Most Vulnerable Places – The New York Times https://t.co/JG3TNsz713

— Equity & Health (@equitylist) December 10, 2021

December 11 Omicron update from Europe

– all cases for which there is available information have been asymptomatic or mild
– no deaths so far

It’s the same story everywhere: Too early to draw strong conclusions, but the lack of bad news on severity is good news pic.twitter.com/FStZ9str4Y

— Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) December 11, 2021

Germany’s ‘Fauci,’ a Harvard-educated doctor, gets ready to tackle the pandemic https://t.co/3cShWIkEnB

— Post World (@PostWorld) December 11, 2021

Covid in Austria: Mass protest in Vienna against measures https://t.co/VV5gOW0jM5

— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) December 11, 2021

British scientists are warning that the government may need to introduce tougher restrictions to slow the growth of the omicron coronavirus variant. U.K. health officials say omicron is spreading much more quickly than the delta strain. https://t.co/DiWz5YI2na

— The Associated Press (@AP) December 11, 2021

Long, wonky thread:

We've seen exceptionally rapid spread of Omicron in South Africa. Although we should expect this rapid spread to follow in other geographies, we've mostly lacked data to confirm this until recently. 1/21https://t.co/nHfoybHE4d

— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) December 10, 2021

Brazilian Supreme Court justice mandates proof of vaccination to enter the country https://t.co/iixYGJUyva pic.twitter.com/zz1Fm4EZsV

— Reuters (@Reuters) December 12, 2021

#Omicron's spread may worsen a global nursing shortage, according to new research. There was a worldwide shortage of millions of nurses as the pandemic began, and a far greater shortage is now on the horizon https://t.co/PlGt1k0P0x

— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 11, 2021

======

This is like studying for a test, having everything you studied be substantially different from your prep material, and still managing a passing score (not even to speak of what they likely do for severe disease and death, which if you factor those in is acing the exam).

— Edward Nirenberg (@ENirenberg) December 11, 2021

From a much longer thread:

What are the facts on Omicron? The picture is getting clearer: Omicron spreads faster and is better able to escape immunity than other variants. Severity is still unknown, although it's likely vaccination reduces severe disease. The virus has adapted; we must as well. 1/thread

— Dr. Tom Frieden (@DrTomFrieden) December 11, 2021

Omicron will almost certainly overtake Delta and cause new waves of infection globally. This happened within weeks in South Africa. In the UK, Omicron cases are projected to reach parity with Delta by mid-December, according to the briefing, and are doubling every 2-3 days. 3/

— Dr. Tom Frieden (@DrTomFrieden) December 11, 2021

But the good news is that an mRNA booster dose resulted in an increase of protection irrespective of primary vaccination type. After two weeks of a Pfizer booster, vaccine effectiveness was restored. 10/

— Dr. Tom Frieden (@DrTomFrieden) December 11, 2021

Let’s learn from the lesson of Omicron—this virus moves fast. Mutations are in effect innovations by the virus. To keep up and blunt disease spread and deaths, we need to learn quickly, communicate well, and act effectively. 16/end

— Dr. Tom Frieden (@DrTomFrieden) December 11, 2021

Nasal vaccine may aid fight against new viral variants, according to new research published in Science Immunology. Apparently intranasal inoculation induces local lung-resident B cell populations to secrete protective mucosal antiviral antibodies https://t.co/gK0Jo3RgKQ pic.twitter.com/7sEzh1wDwd

— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 11, 2021

A longer-lasting Covid vaccine? UCLA scientists have identified rare, naturally occurring T cells capable of targeting a protein found in SARSCoV2 & several other coronaviruses. Basing vaccines on this protein may lead to a longer-lasting immune response https://t.co/GiKlWE3eJa pic.twitter.com/2U55hsFT9I

— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) December 11, 2021

1) I am very worried about Omicron and inactivated vaccines. According to early data from the UK, 2x AstraZeneca or 2x Pfizer provides little protection from symptomatic disease. VE with inactivated vaccines is generally lower (as shown e.g. in Brazil: https://t.co/jnUPjRNETk)

— Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer) December 11, 2021

3) Especially for inactivated vaccines I am very worried. They are grown on Vero cells. It is not clear yet if Omicron has robust growth/yields on Vero. If the virus grows less well, that means less vaccine can be produced.

— Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer) December 11, 2021

5)….other regions. Omicron specific mRNA vaccines that are produced for high income countries will also lead to reduced availability for LMICs. We need to think about how to solve this. We are not safe until all of us are safe – Omicron has demonstrated that.

— Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer) December 11, 2021

Mina’s been pushing for MOAR HOME TESTING since the pandemic began. I personally suspect widespread test distribution will just lead to a lot more idiots lying about their test results, but now that the WH has ‘snubbed’ the concept, maybe it’s inevitable?…

This is great! Colorado is following in footsteps of UK/Europe

Anyone can order a box of 5 rapid tests for FREE from CO, EVERY WEEK!

(This, despite condescending views by our White House on the feasibility of sending people free tests in a pandemic)https://t.co/Ig4ne8OKkf

— Michael Mina (@michaelmina_lab) December 11, 2021

======

Thoughts & prayers, Missouri:

2/ –"to order disease-control measures."
So "Laclede Co Hlth Dept made a #Facebook post that it was suspending 'all #COVID19 related work.' Will no longer investigate cases, contact-trace, issue directives to quarantine or [release] case numbrs & deaths."https://t.co/yMuiSq4jCd

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) December 10, 2021

Pennsylvania:

Top two headlines today. I’m out of snarky comments right now. pic.twitter.com/1Su0eFGHoB

— Adam C Lake MD (@ACLakeMD) December 11, 2021

Omicron in Oakland: How a WI wedding with vaccinated people led to outbreak

“We just shouldn’t be having these large events now. If physicians and public health professionals can’t do it, there’s just no safe way to do it.” Furr-Holden said.
https://t.co/vZvE2mywoy @sfchronicle

— Carrie Byington, MD, FAAP, FIDSA?? (@carrie_byington) December 10, 2021

“Nearly 99 percent of employees and 85 percent of students 12 and older have been vaccinated, the district said.”

Hundreds of people are fired, online learning set to return amid vaccine resistance at nation’s second-largest school district https://t.co/ZDqBNEpFuE

— sunezzell (@sunezzell) December 11, 2021

Both bicycles and trains can hit pedestrians. https://t.co/eZI42X8s55

— The Hoarse Whisperer (@TheRealHoarse) December 12, 2021

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Reader Interactions

41Comments

  1. 1.

    NotMax

    December 12, 2021 at 4:27 am

    FYI.

    Italy’s La Scala has postponed its ballet season premiere after a coronavirus outbreak in its ranks, just days after the famed Milan theater staged its high-profile opera season opener with a full-capacity audience.

    At least one of the four ballerinas who tested positive for COVID-19 also appeared in the Dec. 7 premiere of the opera “Macbeth.”

    Ten other people linked to the outbreak tested positive for the virus, all of them theater support personnel, including someone who worked in the hairdressing department, the theater said in a statement. Source

    Amid a rising number of cases in Japan of the omicron variant of coronavirus, all ski jumping World Cup events there this season were canceled Saturday.

    Japan on Friday announced it has now found a total of 12 omicron cases, including new arrivals from the United States, Mozambique and Democratic Republic of the Congo, and has re-imposed a ban on foreign visitors. Source

  2. 2.

    Tony Jay

    December 12, 2021 at 5:31 am

    It’s always astonishing to remember that the pathologically dishonest smegma-streak who the UK’s News Media have spent two years propping up while he deliberately fumbled the country’s Covid response is on record stating that the Mayor from Jaws is his favourite fictional character, specifically because he was ‘brave enough’ to keep the beaches open and the tills ringing when others were panicking about a bit of leg-chomping amongst the proles.

    Though in retrospect it’s pretty clear that the ‘savvy’ people shared his opinion. Sure, he got tens of thousands killed, beggared the country and turned us into an international pariah, but the alternative would have cost them a few pence more in tax every month just to spare millions of proles from the teeth and claws of natural selection. No contest, clearly.

    And here we are.

    Oh, BTW, there’s been another leaked video, this one of Flobalob personally breaking Covid rules last Christmas. He’s done.

  3. 3.

    rikyrah

    December 12, 2021 at 5:43 am

    Godspeed Missouri?

  4. 4.

    rikyrah

    December 12, 2021 at 5:44 am

    The free testing thing… I have mixed feelings about. Send the test to me someone who believes in science . why send the test to the lying unvaccinated?

  5. 5.

    rikyrah

    December 12, 2021 at 5:45 am

    @Tony Jay:

    So, they did leak video? Only of him?

  6. 6.

    Amir Khalid

    December 12, 2021 at 6:20 am

    Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 3,490 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 2,691,689 cases. It also reports 31 deaths as of midnight, for an adjusted cumulative total of 30,862 deaths – 1.15% of the cumulative reported total, 1.17% of resolved cases.

    Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.97.

    341 confirmed cases are in ICU, 135 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 5,399 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,601,908 patients recovered – 96.7% of the cumulative reported total.

    Two new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 6,037 clusters. 243 clusters are currently active; 5,794 clusters are now inactive.

    3,476 new cases today are local infections. 14 new cases today are imported.

    The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 70,382 doses of vaccine on 11th December: 1,407 first doses, 2,353 second doses, and 66,622 booster doses. As of midnight, the cumulative total is 54,820,915 doses administered: 25,919,658 first doses, 25,496,019 second doses, and 3,597,902 booster doses. 79.4% of the population have received their first dose, while 78.1% are now fully vaccinated.

  7. 7.

    Amir Khalid

    December 12, 2021 at 6:28 am

    @Tony Jay:

    If BoJo is indeed done as PM — from what I recall, the recent string of incompetent Tory PMs each required a fair bit of doing in — who will be the next Conservative clown to move in at Downing  Street?

  8. 8.

    Sloane Ranger

    December 12, 2021 at 6:28 am

    @rikyrah: 

    The free testing thing… I have mixed feelings about. Send the test to me someone who believes in science . why send the test to the lying unvaccinated?

    In the UK they’re not automatically sent out, they’re free but you have to order them They arrive within a few days.

  9. 9.

    Sloane Ranger

    December 12, 2021 at 6:32 am

    @Amir Khalid:

     

    If BoJo is indeed done as PM — from what I recall, the recent string of incompetent Tory PMs each required a fair bit of doing in — who will be the next Conservative clown to move in at Downing Street?

    Rishi Sunak (Chancellor) and Liz Truss (Foreign Secretary) are the names being mentioned in the press.

  10. 10.

    Tony Jay

    December 12, 2021 at 6:38 am

    @rikyrah:

    Video of a Christmas Quiz at Downing St from four days before the Partygate gathering. Flobalob as Quizmaster (just as in life, he’s happiest in front of a camera when someone else has written all the answers for him) with aides sitting around the table in direct violation of Covid rules at the time.

    Last week was shots across the bow, now the leakers start working their bombardment across the listing hulk’s exposed hull.

    Not long now.

  11. 11.

    Tony Jay

    December 12, 2021 at 6:47 am

    @Amir Khalid:

    Oh, that’s going to be the subject of another spittle-laden rant when they’ve finished disposing of Bully Bunter’s corpse and turned on each other.

    Most of the same cast as last time, minus Flobby himself and roadkill like Handsy Hancock.

  12. 12.

    NeenerNeener

    December 12, 2021 at 6:56 am

    Monroe County, NY:

    There were 348 new cases yesterday.

  13. 13.

    Betty

    December 12, 2021 at 6:56 am

    I was informed via Facebook this morning that the Omicron is only affecting vaccinated people. So there! Same “wellness” expert also posted her adamant opposition to all mandates. Since you can’t leave the island without being vaccinated it looks like she’ll be here for a long time which can be challenging for an American ex pat.

  14. 14.

    Rob

    December 12, 2021 at 7:06 am

    @rikyrah: OMG I know. I cannot believe that.

  15. 15.

    NorthLeft12

    December 12, 2021 at 7:33 am

    That last tweet (Maxine Bernier) was from the leader of the Peoples Party of Canada.

    Who are the PPC you may ask? The usual collection of racist, misogynistic, anti-vax, authoritarian RWNJs and clowns. They have no representatives in Parliament or in any provincial legislature as far as I know.

    Mr. Bernier’s take is typically ignorant and malicious.

  16. 16.

    Betty

    December 12, 2021 at 7:52 am

    @Betty: Now I see a story from Reuters saying most reported cases are of vaccinated people according to the CDC. Easy to see how that can create a false impression. Just what the anti-vaxxers need.

  17. 17.

    Robert Sneddon

    December 12, 2021 at 8:03 am

    The BBC is reporting the first hospitalisations of people infected with the Omicron variant of COVID-19, about three weeks since the first Omicron variant cases were detected here in the UK. There have been no deaths reported of confirmed Omicron cases and no details of the hospitalisations has been given, the vaccination status of the patients etc.

    Apparently about a third of all new cases in the London area are now from the Omicron variant, rapidly displacing the endemic Delta variant. Various scientific and medical sources are predicting that the Omicron variant will be the predominant source of new COVID-19 cases before Xmas here in the UK.

  18. 18.

    satby

    December 12, 2021 at 8:07 am

    @rikyrah: in my experience, the unvaccinated are quite loud and proud about it. But that’s here, surrounded by bible thumping racists and know-nothings. Maybe in blue states, where lack of vaccination has consequences, they lie about it. Here, they brag.

  19. 19.

    New Deal democrat

    December 12, 2021 at 8:46 am

    Some actual news – and good – over this weekend. Cases in South Africa only up 5% w/w. Cases in the EU down 5%. And 7 day average of cases in the US down 3% w/w. Leaving out the Monday after Thanksgiving cases are flat, although cases are still up over 20% since just before the Thanksgiving distortions.

    Regionally in the US, over the past 7 days only the Northeast is increasing. Compared with  3 weeks ago, the West is flat (with only CA increasing), the Midwest up 20% (with the Ohio Valley States showing no increase in the past 7 days and most other States flat or only up slightly since before Thanksgiving), the South up over 30% (still the lowest per capita rate in the country, but concerningly now all of the Gulf Coast States showing increases), and the Northeast is up over 60% (with every State participating).

    On the one hand, I still think any “Delta” winter wave in the US is going to be much less severe than last year, but on the other hand, I wonder if we are going to find that Omicron is already showing up in data like in the Northeast.

  20. 20.

    Matt McIrvin

    December 12, 2021 at 9:03 am

    @New Deal democrat: I suspect that the current Northeast spike is mostly NOT Omicron yet, just because too many people are dying–the death rate looks just like Delta. Either Omicron is deadlier than the reports out of South Africa and elsewhere seem to be implying, or that’s Delta. Maybe the very most recent wastewater assays are Omicron.

  21. 21.

    YY_Sima Qian

    December 12, 2021 at 9:07 am

    On 12/11 China reported 49 new domestic confirmed (20 previously asymptomatic) & 10 new domestic asymptomatic cases.

    Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 10 new domestic confirmed cases. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 534 active domestic confirmed cases in the region. 

    • Hulun Buir reported 10 new domestic confirmed cases (all at Manzhouli), all are traced close contacts already under home or centralized quarantine. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 532 active domestic confirmed cases (523 at Manzhouli & 9 at New Barag Right Banner) in the city. 7 sub-districts are currently at High Risk. 2 townships & 2 sub-districts are currently at Medium Risk.
    • At Tongliao there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases in the city. The Medium Risk village has been re-designated to Low Risk.

    Heilongjiang Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case. There currently are 42 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • Harbin reported 1 new domestic confirmed case. There currently are 41 active domestic confirmed cases in the city. 2 residential compounds have been elevated to Medium Risk. 3 residential buildings & 27 residential compounds are currently at Medium Risk.
    • At Heihe there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining.
    • At Qiqihar there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.

    Shaanxi Province did not report any new positive cases. There are currently 2 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.

    • Xi’an did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 1 active confirmed case in the city.
    • At Xianyang there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city.

    Shanghai Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. 2 residential compounds are currently at Medium Risk. 

    Jiangsu Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • Nanjing did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed cases there.
    • Wuxi reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, found via screening of all persons coming from Shaoxing in Zhejiang (having arrived at Wuxi on 12/6), & has been under centralized quarantine since 12/9. There currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
    • At Xuzhou there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case remaining.

    Zhejiang Province reported 38 new domestic confirmed (20 previously asymptomatic) & 9 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 99 active domestic confirmed & 24 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • Ningbo reported 8 new domestic confirmed cases, all were placed under centralized quarantine on 12/11. There currently are 33 active domestic confirmed & 11 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. Phylogenetic analysis indicates the cluster is Delta Variant currently prevalent at Warsaw in Poland, & highly identical to recent domestic positive cases in Nanjing in Jiangsu & Shanghai. A cluster reported by Shanghai in late Nov. was seeded by a person traveling from Beijing to Shanghai, on a flight that had previously flown from Warsaw in Poland to Taiyuan in Shanxi & then onto Beijing the day before, sitting in a seat adjacent to that taken by an imported confirmed case. Therefore, it is likely that the small cluster at Shanghai somehow escaped containment & contact tracing, ultimately seeding the outbreak at Ningbo. 2 residential compounds & an office building are currently at Medium Risk.
    • Hangzhou reported 8 new domestic confirmed (5 previously asymptomatic) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all new domestic positive cases are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine since 12/7. There currently are 12 active domestic confirmed & 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. The cluster has been accelerated by 2 super spreaders, 1 at a work place &1 via poker/mahjong games. 1 residential building is currently at Medium Risk.
    • Shaoxing reported 22 new domestic confirmed (15 previously asymptomatic) & 8 new domestic asymptomatic case, all new domestic positive cases are traced close contacts that were placed under centralized quarantine starting from 12/7 – 11. There currently are 52 active domestic confirmed & 10 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 2 residential compounds are currently at Medium Risk.

    Chongzuo in Guangxi “Autonomous” Region did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case in the city.

    At Guangzhou in Guangdong Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city. 1 quarantine hotel is currently at Medium Risk.

    At Dalian in Liaoning Province there currently are 29 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.

    At Hebei Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 6 active confirmed cases in the province (all at Shijiazhuang).

    At Rizhao in Shandong Province there currently are 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.

    At Chongqing Municipality there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.

    At Henan Province 6 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 37 active domestic confirmed cases remaining (32 at Zhengzhou & 5 at Zhoukou).

    Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 3 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 55 active domestic confirmed & 30 active domestic asymptomatic cases at the prefecture. 1 zone at Longchuan County is currently at High Risk.

    Imported Cases

    On 12/11, China reported 26 new imported confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic), 10 imported asymptomatic cases, 1 imported suspect case:

    • Guangxi “Autonomous” Region (location not specified) – 8 confirmed & 6 asymptomatic cases, no information released
    • Shanghai Municipality – 8 confirmed cases, 2 Chinese nationals returning from the UK (1 each via Helsinki & Copenhagen) & 1 from Israel, 1 Germany national each coming from Germany & the Uk (via Helsinki), a Spanish national coming from Spain, a US national coming from the UK (via Copenhagen), & a Japanese national coming from Japan; 1 suspect case, no information released
    • Qingdao in Shandong Province – 2 confirmed cases, both Filipino crew members off a cargo ship w/ last port of call in Japan
    • Chengdu in Sichuan Province – 2 confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic), 1 Chinese national each returning from Egypt & Thailand; 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Egypt
    • Yunnan Province (location not specified) – 2 confirmed cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Myanmar & Laos, all via land border crossing
    • Dalian in Liaoning Province – 1 confirmed case, no information released
    • Xiamen in Fujian Province – 1 confirmed case, no information released
    • Putian in Fujian Province – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released
    • Xi’an in Shaanxi Province – 1 confirmed case, 1 Chinese national returning from Belgium (off a flight diverted from Beijing)
    • Foshan in Guangdong Province – 1 confirmed case, coming from Panama, off a flight that landed at Guangzhou
    • Guangzhou in Guangdong Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Japan
    • Changsha in Hunan Province – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released

    Overall in China, 24 confirmed cases recovered (15 imported), 14 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (11 imported) & 21 were reclassified as confirmed cases (1 imported), & 1,014 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 1,323 active confirmed cases in the country (504 imported), 28 in serious condition (4 imported), 474 active asymptomatic cases (401 imported), 2 suspect cases (both imported). 49,810 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.

    As of 12/11, 2,602.703M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 10.824M doses in the past 24 hrs.

    On 12/12, Hong Kong reported 5 new positive cases, all imported.

  22. 22.

    Matt McIrvin

    December 12, 2021 at 9:18 am

    The response to Omicron seems very split right now just because of the uncertainty about how bad it is. If we really need to suppress Omicron transmission, it seems like the only thing for it is to go to a hard shutdown of society on the spring 2020 level, because absolutely nothing seems to really suppress transmission of this thing–not masks, not vaccines, not anything except isolation. But that’s really unlikely at this point, so there’s real despair out there.

    But some of the reports seem to imply that, at least if you’re vaccinated or have a prior infection, this really is more like a bad cold. So you have even people with medical experience split between “this is the crack of doom” and low-key “let it rip”. Very hard to read.

  23. 23.

    Matt McIrvin

    December 12, 2021 at 9:20 am

    (Mind you, even if it’s effectively a bad cold, it’s bad news for healthcare institutions just because all their staff are going to be out sick with it.)

  24. 24.

    Percysowner

    December 12, 2021 at 9:21 am

    @rikyrah: ​
      I know. Ohio had a good start, then the legislature did a lot wrong, BUT quick tests are available for free at public libraries. You walk in, tell them how many people in your household and they hand you one test for each member. It’s pretty painless and the tests go to the people who believe in them.

  25. 25.

    Robert Sneddon

    December 12, 2021 at 9:32 am

    A report, “Omicron in Scotland” was published by the Scottish government at the weekend. It’s only available as a PDF at the moment, an accessible Web-version will be online soon. Lots of details about the Scottish situation in regards to this new variant and explanations of the systems in place to monitor it.

    Takeaways — significantly more women than men have been confirmed as as having contracted the Omicron variant, this may be due to women testing more frequently for healthcare-related work. The age distribution of cases is a bell-curve with significant numbers of cases under 20 and peaking at age 30-49 (vaccination rate of about 75%). Older people (vaccination rate close to 100%) are not affected as much. No precise information on the vaccination status of Omicron variant cases is presented, possibly for patient confidentiality reasons.

    The rapid lateral-flow tests being used today work with the Omicron variant. The “missing S-gene” marker in PCR tests is not a 100% unique signal confirming Omicron but earlier in the year that marker only turned up in about one of every thousand PCR tests and that number has shot up over the past few weeks as Omicron has spread, so it’s being used as a probable indicator of Omicron cases. Some gene sequencing is being carried out to absolutely confirm Omicron cases.

    The expectation is that Omicron will replace Delta as the main variant within a week or two in Scotland, rising quickly to near-100% of all new cases. The median estimate is that the number of new cases daily will increase by 50% or so (5000 a day as compared to the current 3500 a day). The worst-case estimate is for 15,000 new cases a day.

    There is as yet not enough case data in Scotland to make definitive statements about vaccine escape and booster efficacy levels. The infection data and research results to date from southern African states and Sweden is noted with caveats.

  26. 26.

    mrmoshpotato

    December 12, 2021 at 9:37 am

    Remember in the movie Jaws, when everyone was angry about beach closures even as a great white shark was actively killing people and those in power chose to let people swim anyway? This is what #COVID reminds me of. We know what works, but people choose to do the exact opposite.

    Yup.

  27. 27.

    UncleEbeneezer

    December 12, 2021 at 9:38 am

    Oh My God.  That woman in the photo holding the megaphone and the “No Vaccine Mandate” sign looks very much like a woman who was a long-time friend (like we had our wedding party at her house) but we had to sever ties with her when her ridiculous anti-vaccine views came out.  She lives in Ojai and I could totally see her doing this bullshit.  I’ll have to ask my wife to take a look once she’s up, but the resemblance is…ugh…

  28. 28.

    New Deal democrat

    December 12, 2021 at 9:47 am

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Since deaths lag cases by about 4 weeks, the increase in deaths in the Northeast are most likely due to Delta cases in early November. I am wondering (no proof!) if the vertical case counts as measured in the wastewater since around Thanksgiving might be at least part Omicron.

    I did check Dr. Jorge Caballero’s feed, but he hasn’t commented on US cases beyond the noting that cases are turning up in most States, and his early speculation that Minnesota’s early autumn spike was (proto?)-Omicron.

  29. 29.

    Kalakal

    December 12, 2021 at 10:07 am

    @Amir Khalid: Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, and Michael Gove.

    Gove is particularly vile but has a major boost in that he’s very in with R Murdoch ( used to work at the Times)

    Truss stands out amongst the cabinet for her stupidity which is no mean feat.

    Sunak has the advantage as chancellor of (falsely) being seen being responsible for doling out extra cash support during the pandemic. Left to himself he’s a hardline austerity freak. Also he’s going to have a problem with racists which is a very large chunk of the ToriesThey’re all horriblr

  30. 30.

    Sloane Ranger

    December 12, 2021 at 10:08 am

    Yesterday the UK had 54,073 new cases. The rolling 7-day average is up by 12.6%. Usual weekend warning about the accuracy of the data is in place. New cases by nation,

    England – 48,540 (down 368)

    Northern Ireland – 1446 (down 360)

    Scotland – 4087 (down 931)

    Wales – Does not report on Saturdays).

    Deaths – There were 132 deaths reported yesterday. The rolling 7-day average is up by 1.1%. 117 deaths were in England, 3 in Northern Ireland, 12 in Scotland. Wales does not report on Saturdays.

    Testing – Not updated at weekends.

    Hospitalisations – Not updated at weekends.

    Vaccinations – As at Friday, 10 December, 51,229,132 people had had 1 shot of a vaccine, 46,705,196 had had 2 and 22,594,743 had had a 3rd shot/booster. This means that 89.1% of all UK residents aged 12+ have had 1 shot, 81.2% have had 2 and 39.3% have had a 3rd shot/booster.

    Looking at the data, it looks like, currently, about 22,000 people a day are getting their 1st shot, about 30,000 are getting a 2nd shot and about 400,000 are getting a 3rd shot/booster. I’m not seeing any difference in vaccine take up between home nations as far as 1st and 2nd shots are concerned, but, with 3rd doses/boosters, Scotland seems to be leading the pack with England and Wales tied just below and Northern Ireland bringing up the rear.

  31. 31.

    Scout211

    December 12, 2021 at 10:13 am

    SNL last night covered COVID-19 with an array of characters popping up to explain their views. Kate McKinnon was back as Dr, Fauci.  It’s worth a Sunday morning laugh.  Especially at Cruz, Boebert and MTG. ;-)

  32. 32.

    Cameron

    December 12, 2021 at 10:51 am

    Here in Florida, we’re ready to party.  Omicron has arrived, state government is not only taking a powder but shutting up those who think there might be a few things left to be worked out, and then there’s this (I live about 4 miles north of SRQ, right off Rte 41):

    https://www.yourobserver.com/article/sarasota-bradenton-international-airport-ready-for-record-holiday-rush

    Let the good times roll…..

  33. 33.

    New Deal democrat

    December 12, 2021 at 10:51 am

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Trevor Bedford has expanded his dotplots of Omicron’s exponential spread to include the US:

    https://github.com/blab/rt-from-frequency-dynamics/tree/master/results/omicron-countries

    If the trend has continued, by now over 10,000 cases per day in the US are Omicron.

  34. 34.

    Soprano2

    December 12, 2021 at 11:01 am

    Our local school district told the state to get stuffed, they will decide when the school’s mask mandate is over.  It’s stunning to me that these people demanding all measures cease because a judge in Cole County said so used to holler about how local control of government was best. ??

    Last night at symphony I saw some people wearing masks wrong, but at least they were willing to wear them!

  35. 35.

    Matt McIrvin

    December 12, 2021 at 12:28 pm

    I’m also seeing a lot of people sort of desperately hoping that Omicron will be mild and somehow push Delta aside, causing a benign end to the pandemic.

    It’s a nice dream. I also don’t see how it’s probable. If infection with previous strains doesn’t protect you from Omicron, why would the reverse be true? Hard to believe it’d displace anything. In South Africa, their big Delta wave had already ended.

    It seems like a lot of them also assume the evolution of the virus has a definite direction and the variants will be more Omicron-like from now on. But that’s not necessarily true either. Omicron could end up being a largely irrelevant footnote in the larger pandemic.

  36. 36.

    Princess

    December 12, 2021 at 12:37 pm

    The UK has widespread free easy rapid testing and it seems to have done precious little good on a community-wide basis. The problem with testing as a great panacea is that the same people test responsibly as who do all the other mitigations responsibly. So on an individual or family by family basis, it might help avoid some infections, I am not sure it is a great public health measure worth spending a lot of money on. And I’m afraid some who push testing as the miracle solution may have investments that incline them in that direction.

  37. 37.

    Mousebumples

    December 12, 2021 at 12:43 pm

    Late to the thread, but I ordered a 2 pack of at home covid tests from insurance last week at no charge. Have what I thought was a cold, but I took an at home test this am before holiday baking plans with grandma later today.

    Negative, thankfully, but the confirmation was appreciated.

    Now to order more – max 2 per order. ?

  38. 38.

    Robert Sneddon

    December 12, 2021 at 1:24 pm

    It has just been reported that the UK is raising its COVID-19 alert level from three to four. The last time it was this high was back in May this year. It indicates the scientific concensus is that we’re on an upslope of cases with more spread of the disease coming.

  39. 39.

    Robert Sneddon

    December 12, 2021 at 1:56 pm

    @Princess: I’m afraid some who push testing as the miracle solution may have investments that incline them in that direction

    There are no miracle solutions, just a large number of mitigations flying in close formation. Testing, social distancing, masks, vaccinations (times a thousand), indoor ventilation, vaccine passports, they all need each other to keep the levels of sickness and death down to something we can, if not accept, at least live with.

  40. 40.

    dc

    December 12, 2021 at 2:15 pm

    @Mousebumples: Is this part of the Biden plan or is it a program in your state or just your insurance co.?

  41. 41.

    Peale

    December 12, 2021 at 3:27 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: Yeah. It think the idea that Omicron will displace Delta is not going to pan out. It’ll be “in addition to 100,000 Delta Cases per day that result in 10,000 hospitalization, we’ll have 250,000 Omicron cases per day that result in an additional 10,000 hospitalizations. The immunity that comes from having a case of Omicron probably helps against future variants from its family tree.

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