Maybe some further watered down version of the BBB Act will pass eventually, but don’t look for the package under your Christmas tree, according to the latest reporting from The Washington Post:
The intensity of the debate has reached a fever pitch as Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) has said he wants to pass the bill by Christmas and it’s increasingly looking as if that timeline has slipped out of reach because of Manchin’s demands.
Why? Because entitlement, fiscal responsibility, inflation, 10-year cost estimates, blah blah blah. The kaleidoscope of rationales shifts endlessly and perhaps inexhaustibly.
Of course, it’s ALL bullshit. Unlike the “bipartisan” infrastructure plan, the BBB bill was paid for until the “fiscally responsible” folks stripped out the overwhelmingly popular tax increases on wealthy freeloaders that would have paid for it. CNN’s Manu Raju caught up with Senator Mazie Hirono for a comment:
Sen. Hirono to me re Manchin/BBB: “That's where he's at and this is why if you have a 50/50 split Senate, you can have one person, or two people, just stop everything and that is why people in our country should know that a 50/50 Senate sucks and we can’t get things done.”
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 16, 2021
LOL! So true. Open thread.
ACA risk adjustment and growth above all else insurers
cain
I hope we can make that argument to the voting public that we need a lot more of them voting to keep us in power.
germy
I agree with Sen. Hirono.
Baud
I missed this news. Is it no longer paid for?
SiubhanDuinne
I know he’s a Democrat. I know he usually votes with the Democratic caucus. I know there are no other Democrats in WV who could replace him. I know all that, but I still want to trebuchet that dickwipe straight into Kingdom Come.
Old Man Shadow
Of course, people in the country who aren’t wonks about politics will look at the inaction and say, “Both parties suck, I’m gonna punish the Democrats this time!”
But, of course, losing his job or the rise of American fascism won’t affect Mr. Manchin as he is one of the poster boys for entitled, rich, mediocre white men.
Edmund Dantes
@Baud: it has a lot more accounting tricks to pay for now than actual new revenue generated. It’s why one of Manchin’s complaints shifted to “it’s not really paid for” after the Dems had to strip out one of the pharma revenue generators to get Sinema to agree to go forward.
p.a.
@SiubhanDuinne: AA++
and if tRump hadn’t lived up to form butting into Georgia… ?
Edmund Dantes
We will of course ignore that his BIF bill that Manchin loved has even more accounting tricks and unpaid for stuff. (It was never a real complaint from him).
Leto
@SiubhanDuinne: because Manchin loves boats so much, scaphism should be the punishment.
MisterForkbeard
@SiubhanDuinne: Right there with you. The guy does a lot more good in our caucus than out of it, but JFC he just needs to stop talking out of both sides of his mouth.
What he’s doing now is incredibly frustrating. He’s basically been doing the Lucy-and-the-football thing for a year. If he’d just said straight out “I won’t support this and you can’t change my mind” then literally everyone would have done better – except Manchin, who’s milking this for tons of positive right-wing news and for right-wing contributions.
Baud
@MisterForkbeard:
I actually think that’s the real reason he wants to drag this out.
cope
The BBB was not stolen by The Grinch but rather given away by the Star-Bellied Sneetches.
Baud
@Edmund Dantes:
Thanks.
Cameron
@MisterForkbeard: I’d go one further – I think he wants to push both BBB and voting rights into 2022 to make everything a hair-on-fire emergency, then tell the rest of the Democrats they can have one or the other but not both (I think he’s agnostic on voting rights – he’s definitely anti-BBB).
Betty Cracker
In case you need more evidence that random Trump supporters are the scum of the fucking earth, the NYT has a piece on how Ashley Biden’s journal made its way to Project Veritas. One thing I will give our generally crappy Beltway media orgs credit for: they did not run with this story. Ignoring irrelevant personal smear campaigns against a candidate’s family members shouldn’t be something media outlets get credit for, but here we are.
Almost Retired
I wish there was something like the pie filter on MSNBC and CNN. Then, every time Manchin was interviewed, the screen would temporarily switch to Family Guy reruns or something. The effect on overall mental health would be enormous.
JMG
@MisterForkbeard: It’s not that so much as that stringing the process out is what gives Manchin attention and power. If he says yes or no, he instantly reverts back to being just another one of 100 Senators. It is my theory that whatever weakness or flaw a person has as a human being, it’s magnified 1000 times by becoming a US Senator. Manchin clearly loves being the center of attention.
J R in WV
Joe Manchin is a despicable low-life greed-hound with no respect for anyone but himself. His whole family is like that, his daughter raised the cost of Epi-Pens for people with violent allergies by hundreds of dollars. Then she sold the business she was CEO of, Mylan Pharma, to a giant pharma corp that is closing Mylan Pharma facilities and putting hundreds of people out of their careers.
While Joe lives on a yacht and drives an Italian SUV around DC. Won’t do anything to save the planet from catastrophic climate shock because he’s totally invested in the coal bidness. Greed is his only motivating factor, greed for money and power. He is one of the RWNJ mutherfukers who make me wish I believed in a Hell where he could suffer for eternity. Because that is where he would wind up.
His karma must be as black as the coal he loves so much!
GoBlueInOak
@cain: Problem with that is its a very weak argument to make to voters. The median voter is a 50-something straight white person who didn’t go to college. They don’t really pay attention to politics except in the most superficial way, have a lifelong chip on their shoulder when it comes anybody with more education than them, and are on average at minimum mildly suspicious of anyone brown.
They’ll spend their 10 seconds looking at DC thinking “the Democrat control all of it and spend all their time arguing about how big a handout to give single black moms”.
We start off every cycle with a shit hand and our strategies gotta take that into account. Complaining about winning but not winning enough aint gonna do it.
A Good Woman
Tim Miller at The Bulwark reported that he spent time at funeral parlor at WVA, was recognized as a Never-Trumper and the locals made it clear that they see the BBB as an AOC/Pelosi socialist gimme. They don’t want it. There is no political consequence for Manchin to vote against the BBB, but plenty if he votes for it. According to Miller the specific county went -58 Biden in 2020, and -10 Manchin when he ran.
I suspect that we need to pound on the Republicans rather than waste time expecting Manchin’s constituents to rise up and change his mind.
Peale
Pay for the bill by selling tickets to public stonings of Senators. I could see a good market for the national tour. The Legislative Branch has been so unpopular for so long and they’ve never really thought that they needed to do anything to change that. Well, now its time to monetize the that negative capital they’ve been saving. No order. Just once a month, we’ll pull a name from the hat and rent out a stadium.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@MisterForkbeard:
Perhaps the key is to make the attention he’s getting negative in the sense that he’s no longer enjoying being in the spotlight because his life is a living hell. IDK
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
There are apparently a few R Senators that have said they would vote to extend the increased child tax credit (e.g. Mitt Romney) and that seems to be the sticking point du jour with Manchin (though I have no doubt he’d invent another sticking point if they dropped that from the current bill). Now, who knows if Mittens would actually vote that way if McConnell told him not to but sending a stand alone tax credit extension bill to the Senate to see if they can get a couple of R votes and go around Manchin…might be worth doing. It would be getting something done in a bipartisan way that helps families that Manchin opposes. The Beltway media would eat that shit up with a spoon.
SiubhanDuinne
@Leto:
New word! Thank you, I guess, although that’s as gruesome a manner of execution as I’ve ever come across. Yikes!
Sure Lurkalot
@SiubhanDuinne:
Can I help? Pretty please?
Joe Falco
@SiubhanDuinne:
People can acknowledge both that Manchin votes along most of the time with Democrats and that he has such a large role in determining what legislation gets to be voted on.
J R in WV
@SiubhanDuinne:
Manchin is NOT a Democrat. No more than George Wallace was a Democrat. That’s how he gets elected in WV. By being a RWNJ on the down-low. Dipped in evil and dried off in a coal-fired power plant.
And a trebuchet shot right into the castle wall 50 feet away is perfect, thanks for suggesting it!
Sure Lurkalot
@A Good Woman: Tim Miller is not an honest actor.
Baud
@A Good Woman:
I don’t know if Manchin is even going to run for reelection, but if he is, he’s going to need the vote of people in WV who aren’t Trumpsters (like Cole). Tanking the BBB altogether is not costless to him.
James E Powell
Manchin is just against it. The arguments he makes against it are all made in bad faith. He’s just as asshole, but we are stuck with him unless and until we elect four or five more Democratic senators.
It isn’t going to be easy, but I’d like to think we have a chance to take OH, PA, and WI.
UncleEbeneezer
Honestly if putting BBB on hold results in actual passage of crucial voting rights legislation (addressing Gerrymandering and Election subversion by States, first and foremost) I will be okay with waiting for another crack at BBB later. The threat to our Democracy right now is really of the utmost urgency.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
He could just decide to not run for reelection in 2024. He’s in his 70s and wealthy, after al
I agree with others that if delaying BBB leads to real progress on voting rights, then this might be a blessing in disguise. We can’t move forward without an even playing field
q
I wish to hell there was a way to punish Machin’s and Sinema’s sorry asses without them just jumping to the Republican Party. Hostage takers, elected by the idiots in their states.
Kelly
Almost all members of our national legislature are rich. Too many of them are Senator or Congressperson for status and a hobby. Only 538 seats so very desirable.
raven
Soonergrunt posted this obit
Of itself hardly news, or good news if you’re the type that subscribes to the notion that anybody not named you dying in El Paso, Texas is good news. In which case have I got news for you: the bawdy, fertile, redheaded matriarch of a sprawling Jewish-Mexican-Redneck American family has kicked it.
Brachiator
@A Good Woman:
They don’t want it even though it would help them.
Nuts!
Maybe the Democrats should have included some little nugget that would specifically (but not obviously) help W VA. Just to get the damn thing passed.
Citizen Alan
@Joe Falco: Is it really fair to say “Manchin votes with us most of the time” when nothing that Manchin opposes can even be brought up for a vote? That’s like praising kidnappers for releasing hostages after they’ve already been paid the ransom and are on a plane to Cuba.
Geminid
@James E Powell: I think Democrats have a shot at the Senate seats in North Carolina and Florida too. Of course, Warnock, Kelly, Hassan and Cortez-Masto are not certain to win next year. Hassan just caught a break when Sununu Junior passed on the New Hampshire Senate race. Republican hopefuls in North Carolina are smacking each other over the airwaves, and the race for the Ohio Republican nomination is a crab pot situation.
janesays
@A Good Woman: It’s all moot, because Manchin isn’t getting re-elected in 2024 no matter what. It’s a presidential election cycle, the GOP candidate (very likely Trump) is going to beat Biden by 30+ points in that state, and there’s no chance in hell that Manchin will get enough of them to crossover to hold onto his seat.
Citizen Alan
@Kelly: To be fair, there is a tipping point where above a certain income, you inevitably become rich unless you’re just a spendthrift or have some terrible misfortune. Because once you make enough to easily pay all regular living expenses, the money just starts accruing unless you spend it on extravagant things. And if instead of extravagant things, you spend it on things that make more money like wise stock choices or real estate, it accrues exponentially. I don’t know exactly what the magic tipping point is, but Congressional salaries are way above it. That’s why I was never particularly mad at Bernie for being secretly rich, just that he was a hypocrite about it.
Betty Cracker
@UncleEbeneezer: Agreed, but BBB is at least theoretically possible with Democratic votes only. Voting rights isn’t without tampering with the sacred filibuster. I’m not giving up on it, but it really is tough to see how voting rights protection gets done, especially now that the filibuster-philes have passed the only spending bill they really wanted.
Brachiator
@J R in WV:
Manchin may be something else, but George Wallace was a Democrat from back when the party accommodated Southern racists and Northern fellow travelers.
Leto
@SiubhanDuinne: to quote Ms Moneypenny: sometimes the old ways are the best.
@raven: good lord, was that a read!
Jeffro
So true. Let’s just have single-item, straight up or down votes (and have them quickly), Dems. One a week. Child tax credit – yea or nay? Negotiating Medicare drug prices – yes or no? Let’s have a string of shitty votes to hold against the GQP come next November.
SiubhanDuinne
@J R in WV:
I don’t really disagree with any of this, and I probably should have said “nominally a Democrat.” What I meant was that he has a D after his name, without which we’d be in the minority and VP Harris wouldn’t have to break any ties.
I am very tired of his shit.
mrmoshpotato
Good on Sen. Hirono coming right up to “This is some bullshit!”
Leto
@Betty Cracker: I’m sure the House progressives are happy with that. Shows the Senate D’s are good faith negotiators. Goodwill found among all!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Leto:
Biden had to be given a win. Something had to be passed.
Joe Falco
@Citizen Alan:
That’s exactly the point I was making. Saying that Manchin votes with Democrats doesn’t really mean much if legislation has to be crafted every time around getting Manchin’s vote for it to pass. It’s a sorry state of affairs, but that’s the reality of the situation. I still hope we’ll still get something meaningful to pass (especially voting rights), but it can be a goddamn drag most of the time that Manchin gets away with his tactics without any consequences except for the occasional journalist to call him out on his “fiscal responsibility for thee but not for me” bullshit.
Kelly
@Citizen Alan: The ease or difficulty of accumulating wealth is kinda beside my point. Some rich people look for something to do with their money and free time. Exotic cars, luxury yachts, sports teams, art. Rare is desirable. 538 seats are a limited set of status markers with some real power. My congressman Blue dog/Problem Solver Kurt Schrader(D-asshole) ran for and won his seat after inheriting about 7 million from his grandfather. We know about his inheritance because he sent word around Oregon Democratic circles that he was willing to spend whatever it took to win. At the time the budget for an Oregon Congressional race were under a million bucks. Cleared the field. Being Congressman Schrader is his fucking hobby.
germy
germy
J R in WV
President Biden appointed Manchin’s wife to a highly paid management job as co-chaiirman of the Appalachian Regional Commission — a federal outfit responsible for billions of $$ in spending attempting to bring the mountain states economy up to near the average for the nation. They build roads, schools, etc, etc…
I think her salary is approaching nearly $200K a year, but more importantly she gets to help determine where those $billions of sweet federal dollars will be spent. Imagine the opportunities to leverage that power!!
ETA: So I have a lot of problems with Manchin screwing with President Biden’s agenda over and over while Biden has given him far more support than he deserves, going as far as all that sweet cash money !!!
cope
@raven: That is probably the most awesome obit I’ve ever read. I wish she had been my neighbor. Thanks for linking to it.
Just One More Canuck
@Leto: Firm but fair
Leto
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): the fact that he already had a win via the American Rescue Plan, or that he increased the roll out of vaccines, beating his initial goal of 100M vaccinations in 100 days (he accomplished twice that: 200M in 100 days)… what he needed was for two dumb fucks in the Senate to actually honor their word, the word they gave to the House members that if that piece of shit Infrastructure bill was passed, that the BBB would be as well. It was why they were tied together and why the House progressive caucus was so loathe to uncouple them. Because the result was a predictable as the sun rising in the east and Trumpov enjoying KFC.
Baud
@Leto:
I for one don’t agree with the prediction that keeping them coupled would have improved where we stand right now. But we’ll never know for sure how that alternative reality would have played out.
Brachiator
@germy:
This is not true. They could pass BBB in 2022 and there would still be payments, unless the Senate tinkers with this part of the bill.
The ridiculous thing is that one compromise would only extend the enhanced child tax credit for one year, tax year 2022.
And it is absolutely crazy that some dopes insist on believing that the child tax credit is totally new and is nothing more than welfare for nonwhite people.
I also talk to morons who insist “I don’t want any credits. Just cut my taxes.”
Sure Lurkalot
@Baud:
Exactly right but I think it was a bit more clear what the decoupling would do.
I honestly don’t know what can be done about people who claim not to want government bennies that help them for whatever reason. Well, the wealthy do, maybe since you revere them so much you should consider emulating them.
Old School
@Brachiator:
I believe there will be no payments in January if nothing is passed in December. Am I incorrect about that?
Betty
@Cameron: People seem to be coming around to understanding that Manchin is opposed to the BBB for reasons of personal wealth, fossil fuels, and is too cowardly to acknowledge that. His ever-shifting rationales are too obvious to ignore. His fig leaf is claiming it’s all because he a fiscal conservative. Who doesn’t respect that, especially his Republican cronies?
Baud
@Sure Lurkalot:
Yeah, rich people and corporations never have hangups about accepting “help” from the government.
cain
@germy: A long long time ago, there was a site on the internet where people would caption Family Circus. It was called Dysfunctional Family Circus – and my goodness, the kind of shit people come up with. Sample: https://dfc.furr.org/archive/25.html
The fella who set it up ultimately had to shut it down because a) DMCA take down but b) had a chat with the cartoonist and just generally felt guilty.
In the end, it was an amusing past time at the time. But lawd, some folks have sordid thinking..
Leto
@Baud: yes, I too appreciate when we just come straight and say, “Fuck you, we’re not honoring our word.” It makes later interactions so much more pleasant and predictable.
Betty
@J R in WV: Well said. I hope the people of West Virginia can find a good Democrat who would serve their interests to take his place.
Brachiator
@Old School:
There might not be payments in January anyway. The idea is to pay about one half of the total credit. You don’t necessarily have to spread the payments out over the entire year.
Old School
@Brachiator: I thought only half the credit was being paid out in 2021 because the plan didn’t go into effect until July. My assumption was that the plan for future years was to do it for the entire year.
daveNYC
Biden gave his word to the CPC that he would get the BBB through the Senate. That was what finally got them on board to help pass the infrastructure bill. Now Manchin has screwed Biden on this and everyone knows who runs Bartertown.
And Sinema has already said that the won’t break the filibuster for voting rights, so that’s nice.
And holding the Senate doesn’t mean much if we can’t hold the House too. Which is iffy at best given the gerrymandering happening
This is a god damn smoking hole in the ground.
germy
@cain:
I remember a site called “Marmaduke Explained” where they’d analyze each big dog comic.
And there’s one called “Garfield – without Garfield” where we just see Jon talking, with no punchlines from his cat.
Baud
@daveNYC:
Not true. Appointments go through the Senate.
germy
I think you’re correct.
matt
Manchin’s trying his hardest to make sure Dems don’t make him irrelevant by electing more members.
Cameron
@Baud: As long as Ted and Josh and Marco don’t put holds on them.
hueyplong
Unless the Senate remains exactly 50-50 after Nov 2022, you’d think one or more Dem Senators will have long memories about the way Manchin has acted on BBB. They’ve shown admirable restraint so far.
Baud
@Cameron: Holds create delays and they are a problem, but no one gets through in a GOP-controlled Senate.
Emerald
@Baud: Exactly. He’s been a reliable blue vote whenever it comes down to just him. He’s never been the deciding vote against Dem legislation or for Rethug legislation.
This could be his first time, of course.
But as a Democrat even if in name only, he will need the votes of a majority of the Democrats in that state. Personally, if I lived in West by God Virginia I would spend my time trying to get some other Dem senator elected in a red state to make up for Manchin’s loss.
I was wondering if he were even planning to run again, but as he keeps accepting right-wing campaign contributions it looks as though he is. Why take campaign contributions if you don’t plan to have a campaign?
I guess Cole can answer for himself, but I do wonder how many Democrats in that state are going to be able to hold their noses just one more time for Manchin.
Kay
Ugh. Just the worst possible outcome. Biden takes a huge political hit for the months of bad faith negotiations with the Right wing senators and gets no pay off at all.
Democrats got trounced in the midterms post Obamacare but they got the law. This is just all political cost with zero upside. I think Schumer has to share the blame for this- if he doesn’t he isn’t the leader. The leadership position is supposed to come with some accountability for failure.
Brachiator
@Old School:
Not my understanding, but you could still get this done over a shorter time period, depending on when the bill was passed.
I have not followed the bill as closely once the Senate declared that they wanted to modify it.
Leto
@Emerald:
Cole has already stated, a few times, that if shitbag runs again he won’t vote for him. Cole is always free to change his mind though.
Because they can take those campaign contributions and refunnel them into various personal profit schemes. The loopholes on that shit are about a mile wide.
Will
Democrats, both progressives, moderates, and conservatives have only themselves to blame. This never should have been one mega bill. The components test highly positive when polled individually, but that’s the key, individually. Most people couldn’t tell you what’s in it for them with the Build Back Better bill because it’s vague. They aren’t going to Google it or do their own research like they like to do with COVID. Democrats need to start passing these things individually so everyone knows exactly what their elected officials are voting for and against.
I mean seriously, why not try and pass a bill called the $300 A Month Per Child Tax Credit Bill? You know, Trump understood one thing, and that is you have to communicate with Americans as if they are stupid. Democrats need to learn that.
I will say I agree with Manchin on one thing, these items need to be funded for more that one year.
Emerald
@Leto: Ah. Makes sense. And good for Cole.
Baud
Has Biden announced that he has given up, and are people just predicting?
@Will: It’s one mega bill because of the need to use reconcilation.
Will
@Baud: didn’t they already get a ruling they can use reconciliation multiple times?
And fuck reconciliation, put this shit out there with names like “$2000 Towards Your Next Electric Car” and “300 A Month Child Tax Credit”, let the Republicans go on record voting them down. They lost Georgia because they were loudly saying they were voting against the $2,000 in your pocket stimulus.
Baud
@Will: I think more than once, but not infinite times. Not sure though.
daveNYC
@Baud: Useful, to say the least, but we need serious legislation passed to deal with myriad issues and that takes both houses. A decade ago I might be more sanguine about the situation, but things are pretty damn bad and are only going to get worse unless serious action is taken, and without the House that’s not going to happen. Executive action is possible on some things, but Biden hasn’t exactly been eager to go that route.
Not to mention that Manchins actions haven’t exact improved the Democrats chances to hold the Senate.
Baud
@daveNYC: No doubt. I would love to end the filibuster and replace Manchin and Sinema with two Dems who, even if on the conservative side, would act for the common good. That world isn’t in the cards in the near future, however.
gwangung
@Will: Basically, you’re just restating Green Lanternism as a political philosophy.
gene108
@J R in WV:
How does this differentiate Joe from WV’s other Senator, Shelley Moore Capito, who opposes everything Democrats support from BBB to voting against the American Rescue Plan (which Manchin voted for) earlier in the year? How has her opposition impacted her support?
Brachiator
@Will:
Trump’s tax bill didn’t consist of just one thing.
Manchin objects to every aspect of BBB, claiming that it is too expensive. He would object even if it were broken up into smaller parts.
Major Major Major Major
At this point, BBB has been so horribly mangled that it might be best to let it die a quiet death and try to do a handful of things correctly instead of a bunch of stuff incorrectly.
Geminid
@daveNYC: Holding the Senate means a lot even if we don’t hold the House. The Senate has powers over judicial and executive branch appointments. It can stop radical legislation that might be passed by the Republican House majority.
We may not be able to pass new, popular initiatives. But in 1948 Harry Truman ran against a “Do-nothing Congress,” and Joe Biden can do the same in 2024.
But personally, I think we will pick up Senate seats next year and hold the House as well. And if we do lose the House, I think we will win it back in 2024.
Major Major Major Major
@gene108:
Depends, I guess, on how you feel about judges, or committee chairmanships, or staffing the government, or…
Major Major Major Major
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: Romney’s child tax credit proposal would actually be a great starting point for negotiations on a standalone bill. Better than the weird quarter-loaf we ended up with in the current BBB draft, for sure.
Geminid
@Major Major Major Major: Federally supported pre-K education is still in the BBB bill. That alone makes it worth passing. It would be transformative.
Kay
@Brachiator:
Just such a shame that he was rewarded for this really sleazy, dishonest behavior. The idea that anyone could trust him on a voting rights bill after this performance is ludicrous. I feel sorry for the people who have to work with him – he’s a liar. He did so much more damage than if he had just announced he wasn’t voting for any bill at all. I cannot believe that wasn’t deliberate. He set out to hurt them.
Leto
@Major Major Major Major: part of the reason we were doing this, BBB, is because it could be done with Dem votes alone via reconciliation. It was one of our 4 reconciliation chances we had to get major things done, thereby proving to the country that we could effectively govern. By having this drag on for so long, by having Manchinema absolutely mangle this shit, it’s unfortunately doing the opposite. We still have Senators going, “I don’t know wtf they want, but I wish they’d tell us so we can move on.” Also I don’t know if Dems want to use reconciliation to pass other lesser things because of how important reconciliation is to our overall strategy.
We can let it die, but we come back to the fact that Manchinema (as well as 1-2 other Senators), don’t want to modify the filibuster, even though they just did so we could pass the debt limit increase. What further bribes do we need to place with these two shitbag grifters for us to be able to pass even an waterfalled down Voting Rights protection bill? Idk and I’m of the opinion that not even their fellow Senators know.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@James E Powell:
If we elect four or five more senators we will just end up with four or five more Manchin/Sinema types.
That’s the way it was designed to work.
Leto
@Kay: I’ll continue to pound this every single time: his performance on the Sandy Hook gun bill should’ve sealed his fate for leading negotiations for anything. He is not a reliable negotiator. He can’t persuade a fish to get back into water. He can’t negotiate a child to eat chocolate versus broccoli. This is best WV can do, and we as a country are ever poorer for it.
Baud
@Odie Hugh Manatee: There are centrists Senators who don’t act flaky like Manchin/Sinema. I agree, however, that there seems little room for electing more progressive Senators.
Major Major Major Major
@Geminid: five years of inadequate and decreasing pre-k funding that red states can opt out of is probably not very transformative, but it would definitely help many families for a few years. We should pick a few things and do them correctly instead, though. It might actually pass!
Omnes Omnibus
I agree with you. FWIW.
gene108
@matt:
Manchin’s trying to make sure Republicans retake Congress in 2022, so he won’t have to vote on anything other than the debt ceiling increase, in the run-up to his re-election, and therefore will theoretically limit attack ads against him for supporting liberal DC politics or whatever.
Voters don’t give a damn about policy. If they see shit getting done that sounds generally beneficial for them, they’ll support the party in power. Publicizing the sausage making and dragging out legislation does the opposite. They see nothing getting done, and get restless for change so something might get done.
Geminid
@Odie Hugh Manatee: So is Val Demings of Florida a Manchin/Sinema type? Tim Ryan of Ohio? Cheri Beasley of North Carolina? Be serious.
Kay
@Leto:
It’s impossible to work with people that dishonest. There has to be some level of trust. I blame the other Democrats only for not figuring it out sooner and limiting the political damage that has occurred during the last 8 months of this sleazy, corrupt egomaniac jerking them all around.
Omnes Omnibus
@Odie Hugh Manatee: But then you can afford to lose one or two or more in any piece of legislation. Right now we can’t afford any defections.
This is true in large part because all of the GOP sucks worse than Manchin or Sinema.
Geminid
@Major Major Major Major: I don’t know. I’m just quoting Magdi Semrau (@Mangy Jay), who was a teacher and now studies education, especially educational differences due to income disparity. She thinks pre-k is key to improving educational outcomes, and that society will be much the better for this. She may have a more pragmatic view on this matter than you. And the first thing anyway to do is get these programs going, then get them refunded and expanded.
Generally, I think this belief that we’re better off not accepting half loaves is viable only for people who are priviledged, and not hungry. There is nothing wrong with being privileged. I’ve got all the privilege I can use. But we have to do our best to look out for people who need help now. I won’t benefit directly from expanded pre-K. But if I live long enough, a better educated and generation will be paying some of the dollars I get from Social Security, and I will be living in a more functional society.
Leto
@Kay: I think the progressive caucus had his number early on, but were given reassurances by Biden/Schumer/other Senate Dems that it would be resolved. Ofc then you started seeing people like Bernie and Warren stating in public, “Manchin is full of shit, doesn’t have a plan/agenda, and it’s hurting us; please stop fucking around and let us pass this legislation.” And ofc old Joe got butthurt for being called out for the useless meat popsicle he is, but here we are.
Idk, maybe this will still pass before Christmas like Schumer wanted. But like you said, moving forward, I don’t see how you would negotiate in good faith with them.
daveNYC
@Omnes Omnibus: On what possible basis do you think we can hold the House? Have you seen the maps coming out of the redistributing process? They’re rough, to say the least.
gene108
@Major Major Major Major:
What I meant is WV, with its split Senate delegation is an interesting study in how important the liberal agenda really is to voters in the state. Liberals say the components of BBB are individually very popular, and Manchin would do himself a favor by getting on board.
Yet, the other Senator is in opposition to everything liberals support, even more than Manchin, and I don’t think she’s sweating her re-election chances.
Basically, is there actually any support for BBB or any part of Biden’s agenda in WV? Is Manchin reading the voters in his state correctly by opposing BBB, or is he just opposing it solely because of donors and his interests in the coal industry?
I find it fascinating no Republican Senator feels he or she will pay a price for opposing Biden’s agenda.
Major Major Major Major
@Geminid:
Have there been any recent examples of this working? The thing is, it’s hard to repeal a well-designed and funded permanent program like Obamacare, but it’s really easy to let something expire, especially if you’re a Republican president or speaker of the house. I’d rather do a couple of things right than gamble on that, especially considering how much effort would, presumably, have to go into setting up the program even for just a few years.
Also, a refundable child tax credit, paid monthly, can easily go towards pre-k if the parents want to use it that way. And red states won’t be able to shut down that funding. And it would help kids who aren’t in pre-k.
Kay
@Leto:
They should just kill it now. Three more months of pouring tens of millions into attacking Democrats and the Biden Administration for a bill that isn’t going to pass anyway is just suicide.
Cut your losses.
Brachiator
@Major Major Major Major:
Again, the Republicans will oppose everything in the bill. Period.
Manchin appears to oppose everything in the bill. Period.
Because it involves spending.
Opponents look for anything during this delay to justify their opposition. Currently, they appear to have locked onto inflation as their cause, even though this is bullshit. And they also have the old standby, the deficit, even though Trump’s tax bill also blew up the deficit.
Geminid
@daveNYC: There are some maps coming out of states like Illinois and New York that are rough, but rough for Republicans. We won’t really know what all the maps will be until February at the earliest, but I think the net Republican advantage will be in single digits. And California will be a wild card, possibly up to a four seat pick up for Democrats.
Cameron
@Baud: I seem to recall that it was like 3 or 4 times over 2 years.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Geminid:
Why just them? It could be anyone who decides that they want to exert some leverage that is counter to what the Democrats are trying to pass. It used to be conservative Republicans and Democrats versus their liberal counterparts. Now the Republican party has purged itself of any liberals and the Democrats are saddled with their conservatives.
Power is money and craven assholes like Manchin know how to exploit their positions for both. He’s not the first and he won’t be the last.
Major Major Major Major
@Brachiator:
Ok, why even talk about it then. Let’s just talk to Romney about his CTC proposal.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Omnes Omnibus:
What I am saying is that it would still happen except that it would be the number of ‘extras’ that we have. The only way to prevent selfish assholes like Manchin holding shit up is to have at least 58 or more Democrats in the Senate. Less than that increases the likelihood of what we are going through now.
gene108
@Kay:
Thanks for posting the link. Interesting article.
Leto
@gene108:
I mean, this took like two seconds to find:
From April/May: Voters in West Virginia Support the Build Back Better Agenda
September: NEW SURVEY OF WEST VIRGINIA VOTERS REVEALS SUPPORT FOR PROVISIONS IN BUILD BACK BETTER PLAN
September: In deep red West Virginia, Biden’s $3.5tn spending proposal is immensely popular
The bill is popular with WV’s residents. When they learn what’s in it, they like it. So if it has the broad support of WV’s red residents, what’s the issue? What’s the hang up? Either: Manchin is a disingenuous fuck who’s raking in the fossil fuel industry money, helping his family grift millions, and doesn’t give a fuck about WV? OR: He’s a man of principle and just standing up for his constituents. Tough call there.
Geminid
@Major Major Major Major: Republicans can and will kill anything in the BBB bill no matter how large or small it is. Democrats have no better chance of keeping them out of power by bailing on a “mangled” BBB bill than by putting one through. This may not be possible, but that is not certain yet.
I don’t see how universal pre-K and the childhood tax credit are mutually exclusive. As for parents spending their tax credit on pre-K, poor parents won’t. That’s the point of universal pre-K.
Leto
@Kay: Except they don’t see it as loses. At least not until Biden/Schumer declare it officially dead. As long as there’s a glimmer, they’re going to continue to spend. It’s cheaper to spend this money now than have to fight for repealing portions of it later. Ofc they’d get better bang for the buck if they just directly contributed to Manchin’s PAC rather than take out ads. No reason why they’re not doing both.
A Good Woman
@Baud:
Not enough WV Dems in the mold of JC to create enough pain for Manchin to step up in support of BBB. Biden lost by way more than Manchin did. BBB is a signature package for Biden. Why would Manchin get behind a package offered by a Prez who lost by more points than Manchin did?
Omnes Omnibus
@daveNYC: GOP overreach, efforts by groups like those for whom we have been fundraising, the possibility of movement on legislation over the next 11 months, the fact the gerrymanders can be overwhelmed, and things like that. Fundamentally, I do not see the point of accepting defeat 11 months prior to the election. Do we need to consider the possibility of defeat and have plans in effect if it happens, fuck yes. But let’s not concede it without contesting the elections.
Leto
OT, this just in: WaPo FDA eliminates key restriction on abortion pill as Supreme Court weighs case that challenges Roe v. Wade
Omnes Omnibus
@Odie Hugh Manatee: What I am saying is that I disagree.
Baud
@A Good Woman:
I don’t understand your math. If Manchin runs and hopes to win, he can’t afford to lose the votes who are people who are pissed at him for sinking BBB. Maybe nothing can save him, but his only shot is for something to pass.
Brachiator
@Major Major Major Major:
We love complaining about Manchin. I would not want to take that away from anyone.
I simply dispute your claim that breaking the bill up into parts will make it easier to pass.
Take the enhanced child tax credit, for example. By any objective measure, it has been a success, and has reduced child poverty. But this is the kind of insanity that the Democrats have to deal with:
Of course, when Trump wanted to increase the credit from $1,000 to $2,000, the GOP happily complied.
The GOP especially want to kill the BBB bill because doing so will help them with the mid terms. They do not want to give Biden any wins.
However, I ain’t no politician, nor even a pundit. The political landscape might change. But right now, total obstruction favors Manchin and the Republicans.
Again, I cannot express how much this bullshit angers me. With Trump, the GOP were willing to pass almost anything he asked for, no matter what. But here Biden is sabotaged by people in his own goddam party.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Omnes Omnibus:
No problem then! :)
James E Powell
@Odie Hugh Manatee:
I would very much like to test your theory.
Geminid
@Odie Hugh Manatee: Why just them? Because they are the actual Senators Democrats will elect from those states. Similar Democrats will be nominated in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Explain how the three are no different than Manchin and Sinema if you can.
I think your statement that now the Democrats are saddled with the Republicans conservatives is facile nonsense. You can back it up if you want to, but you need to name names. There are only 48 Senators in the Democratic Senate Caucus besides Manchin and Sinema, so it wouldn’t be that hard.
Leto
@Brachiator:
He’s also not acknowledging that the reason we’re going this route is because of reconciliation. That’s the only way we’re going to pass any of this. If you strip these parts out and try to pass them 1 at a time, they’ll all fail. Doesn’t matter how popular they are, R’s will kill every single one. We don’t have the votes to pass on our own outside of reconciliation. So it’s honestly all or nothing.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Geminid:
I expressed an opinion, I don’t have to prove shit. Enough said.
Geminid
@Odie Hugh Manatee: You don’t have to answer any question I pose. But you answered my first one with an evasion, so I pressed you.
But I’m curious, so I’ll ask another question, and if you care to answer it I promise I’ll just listen and not argue about it. Who are your Senators? Mine are Tim Kaine and Mark Warner.
Geminid
@Odie Hugh Manatee: I probably should have countered your assertion with a statement like, “I don’t think Val Demings, Tim Ryan, and Cherie Beasley are like Manchin and Sinema,” and left it at that, instead of posing it as a question. That would have been sufficient pushback without prodding you over an assertion that while cynical was in good faith.
Another Scott
They’re still working. Deadlines are what force action in DC. We’re not doomed yet.
Hang in there, everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
Ksmiami
@J R in WV: Biden needs to tell joe to put up or get an office by the latrine. Their fortunes r tied together
Ksmiami
@Kay: yep. I called it earlier. Manchin is a total dickwad. Stop giving him attention