I didn’t know it, but all I wanted for Christmas was for Jen Psaki and the Biden Administration to say exactly this:
Senator Manchin’s comments this morning on FOX are at odds with his discussions this week with the President, with White House staff, and with his own public utterances. Weeks ago, Senator Manchin committed to the President, at his home in Wilmington, to support the Build Back Better framework that the President then subsequently announced. Senator Manchin pledged repeatedly to negotiate on finalizing that framework “in good faith.”
On Tuesday of this week, Senator Manchin came to the White House and submitted—to the President, in person, directly—a written outline for a Build Back Better bill that was the same size and scope as the President’s framework, and covered many of the same priorities. While that framework was missing key priorities, we believed it could lead to a compromise acceptable to all. Senator Manchin promised to continue conversations in the days ahead, and to work with us to reach that common ground. If his comments on FOX and written statement indicate an end to that effort, they represent a sudden and inexplicable reversal in his position, and a breach of his commitments to the President and the Senator’s colleagues in the House and Senate.
Senator Manchin claims that this change of position is related to inflation, but the think tank he often cites on Build Back Better—the Penn Wharton Budget Institute—issued a report less than 48 hours ago that noted the Build Back Better Act will have virtually no impact on inflation in the short term, and, in the long run, the policies it includes will ease inflationary pressures. Many leading economists with whom Senator Manchin frequently consults also support Build Back Better.
Build Back Better lowers costs that families pay. It will reduce what families pay for child care. It will reduce what they pay for prescription drugs. It will lower health care premiums. And it puts a tax cut in the pockets of families with kids. If someone is concerned about the impact that higher prices are having on families, this bill gives them a break.
Senator Manchin cited deficit concerns in his statement. But the plan is fully paid for, is the most fiscally responsible major bill that Congress has considered in years, and reduces the deficit in the long run. The Congressional Budget Office report that the Senator cites analyzed an unfunded extension of Build Back Better. That’s not what the President has proposed, not the bill the Senate would vote on, and not what the President would support. Senator Manchin knows that: The President has told him that repeatedly, including this week, face to face.
Likewise, Senator Manchin’s statement about the climate provisions in Build Back Better are wrong. Build Back Better will produce a job-creating clean energy future for this country—including West Virginia.
Just as Senator Manchin reversed his position on Build Back Better this morning, we will continue to press him to see if he will reverse his position yet again, to honor his prior commitments and be true to his word.
In the meantime, Senator Manchin will have to explain to those families paying $1,000 a month for insulin why they need to keep paying that, instead of $35 for that vital medicine. He will have to explain to the nearly two million women who would get the affordable day care they need to return to work why he opposes a plan to get them the help they need. Maybe Senator Manchin can explain to the millions of children who have been lifted out of poverty, in part due to the Child Tax Credit, why he wants to end a program that is helping achieve this milestone—we cannot.
We are proud of what we have gotten done in 2021: the American Rescue Plan, the fastest decrease in unemployment in U.S. history, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, over 200 million Americans vaccinated, schools reopened, the fastest rollout of vaccines to children anywhere in the world, and historic appointments to the Federal judiciary.
But we will not relent in the fight to help Americans with their child care, health care, prescription drug costs, and elder care—and to combat climate change. The fight for Build Back Better is too important to give up. We will find a way to move forward next year.
Also wondering… What do you think about what this fellow has to say?
h/t The Thin Black Duke
Open Thread.
WaterGirl
I wasn’t able to find text that I could put in a block quote, but if someone comes across that, I would love to replace the screen-capture image with actual text.
I couldn’t decide between these two images. I love the happy Jen Psaki, but I was also drawn to the “don’t fuck with me” Jen Psaki.
germy
@WaterGirl:
Text supplied by germy! ~WG
Bobby Thomson
I would have added, “Fuckin’ DIck!” at the end, which is probably why I’m not the White House Press Secretary.
guachi
It’s not that Manchin is conservative. It’s that he’s a liar, a bad faith actor, and corrupt.
CaseyL
I’ve been waiting forever for the WH to start putting the screws to Manchin. Hopefully this is just an opening round for some serious hurtin’ on that egomaniacal empty-headed fool.
germy
@guachi:
He knows what side his bread is buttered on, as does Sinema, as does the entire GOP.
WaterGirl
@germy: Thank you so much!!!
Mai Naem mobile
I think Jen Psaki is trying to say “Joe Manchin is a big fat liar”. Also too, he’s not negotiating in good faith. He needs to be stripped of his committee chairmanship.
Bobby Thomson
@guachi: this. He’s directly profiting, in addition to probable bribes.
And go ahead and switch if you won’t vote for the President’s signature initiatives.
germy
@WaterGirl:
You’re welcome!
I find myself spending more and more time on Whitehouse.gov.
There’s so much policy stuff in there! I wish some of the beltway reporters would quote more of it, instead of the horserace stuff they obsess over.
scav
To Manchin would be a good verb for negotiating in bad faith with a constant eye on personal immediate spotlight.
syphonblue
Joe Manchin is an asshole and needs to be kicked out of the party after next year’s elections (unless we somehow end up 50/50 again).
Pharniel
Bau is interesting. Like The Blogfather and other FP-ers he’s also in a rural area and has a unique perspective, this one further mid-west.
He’s usually a little more dour than the comments section here, but is absolutely bite-size explanations & talks that I use with a lot of my less-engaged friends/acquaintances when I need to explain how the latest GOP line is bullshit.
dww44
@Bobby Thomson: Nope I do NOT want that gavel handed back to McConnell now or ever!
Emerald
The White House has called him a liar. He has to respond to that or become forever known as a bad faith actor. Maybe he doesn’t care about that because he is a bad faith actor, but that’s pretty brutal for a Senator.
West of the Rockies
Jen and Joe ain’t playing.
Emerald
I hope the next step is releasing that $1.8 trillion framework that Manchin proposed. If we’re going to lose him anyway, rub his nose in it.
Constance Reader
@guachi: And always has been, which is why this WH statement infuriates me. He has never said or done anything in “good faith”, he has reversed every statement of support he made almost immediately after making it and he never made any kind of “commitment”. There is nothing “sudden” or “inexplicable” about this. “Senator Manchin will have to explain to those families…” Manchin does not have to explain anything he says or does to anybody and never has. He is under no obligation whatsoever to actually face his constituents and that’s exactly why he doesn’t. Protesters had to surround his yacht with kayaks and block his Maserati from driving out of the marina’s garage to get his attention (and he nearly ran over the ones at the marina).
West of the Rockies
And this is entirely petty, but Manchin and Flynn both have that pointy bird beak noise and sharp chins. I now find them almost equally disagreeable (though Flynn farrrr more so).
hilts
Joe Manchin is a Republican plant and a heartless prick.
Suzanne
I hate Joe Manchin and I have to say that I’m pretty disappointed in everything that has (not) happened since the BIP. Covid is worse, unvaccinated people still circulate freely in society, and abortion rights are essentially gone. And student loan repayment starts again soon! Yay, just what I want: the privilege of paying for this government.
I wouldn’t mind paying, if I got what I paid for.
Emerald
@Suzanne: Well, you did get the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Act, and the $1.2 trillion BIF. So that’s over $3 trillion in just Biden’s first year, which is more than most presidents get in their entire terms. So there’s that.
Spanky
What I said in this morning’s Ephemeral Beauty thread:
SiubhanDuinne
If we’re bad, Santa leaves a lump of coal in our stocking, right?
But let’s face it, Joe Manchin — though he’s very, very bad indeed — would be thrilled to get a lump of coal. Would kind of defeat the purpose.
So what does Santa leave in Manchin’s stocking, that will communicate how bad he’s been? A solar cell? What?
debbie
It’s such a well-constructed and -written statement, I feel like it wasn’t written this morning or even last night. It’s like they’ve known for a while that Manchin was going to crap out.
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: Horse’s head?
scav
I’d also like to see his and fellow family kitchen table budget hawks explain how thrillingly moral it is to gaze deeply into the eyes of their seriously ill child and intone “Sorry kiddo, can’t manage to pay for your medicine or doctor’s visit: there’s the potential it might blow the budget at some point.” at the same time he’s accepting delivery of his repaired eyeglasses.
Omnes Omnibus
@Constance Reader: You are choosing to be angry about the White House statement? What the fuck did you expect them to say?
Cameron
I didn’t think Manchin was going to switch parties, but the fact that he made this revelation on Fox has me reconsidering.
WaterGirl
@debbie: I agree that it’s well constructed. But there’s a lot of outrage there and I believe that Biden took Manchin at his word. I mean, Thursday was just 3 days ago, and Manchin gave Biden something in writing then.
I am wondering why Biden didn’t just take that piece of paper and immediately call a joint press conference and announce that they had a deal. Hindsight is 20-20.
debbie
@WaterGirl:
I’d like to see that statement published so we all can read it.
scav
@SiubhanDuinne: Switches or ashes would also be traditional.
Cameron
@WaterGirl: Biden probably figured that if it was in writing, the guy wouldn’t bail on it. Not unreasonable.
Emerald
@Cameron: The instant he switches parties he loses all his power and becomes an instant toady to both McConnell and trump. Maybe that’s fine with him but I think he’s been enjoying his time in the limelight. All that goes poof when he becomes a Republican.
brendancalling
pursuant to the “what if” thread, that was awesome.
Now, if only Joe Manchin would come to his senses. Or, fall off a very tall mountain into a crevasse. Filled with sharp rocks.
Either would be fine with me.
SiubhanDuinne
@Mai Naem mobile:
Trying, nothing. That’s exactly what she’s saying.
Completely agree. Is this something Schumer can do on his own? Maybe the better question is, Will he?
WaterGirl
@debbie: I suspect that we will see it if Manchin doesn’t change his tune.
With a public statement from Biden signing off on the exact language of whatever Manchin gave him.
If Manchin thought Joe was going to let him slither away, I think he was dead wrong. For the sake of his own reputation, I think Joe has to show that he had that document in hand just 3 days before Judas went on Fox.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
If there were somewhere I could place a bet on that WH official, I would bet on Ron Klain
Cameron
@Emerald: I agree that’s what would happen, although his future as a Democrat may be a bit limited. I sure wouldn’t invite him to a strategy session – I’m not sure I’d even give him more than fifteen minutes to look over proposed legislation.
Lacuna Synecdoche
I think Manchin is preparing to switch parties. What he did this morning, going on Fox News to announce he won’t vote for BBB? That’s just a last “Fuck You” to Democrats so he can use the reaction to “justify” quitting the party and joining the GOP (or going independent and caucusing with them).
Cermet
Here’s to Omicron visiting the asshole senator with long covid.
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: Even more devastating was this, I think:
They escalated 3 times in that one sentence, even after they announced that Match had reversed his position.
Sure Lurkalot
I hope the next White House salvo speaks to the grossly undertaxed fuckers who are screaming in Manchin’s ear and their enablers. Can we beef up the IRS enforcement by executive order to start collecting the back taxes these assholes have evaded for years by flat out cheating?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: I also think this was a shot across the bow at Manchin’s daughter:
The only reason that’s not in hot red is that the statement didn’t mention that “while they are at it they will be looking at pricing for other drugs”.
Biden is a nice guy, but I’m thinking he knows how to play hard ball when that’s the only play that’s left.
scav
OT More evidence of rats actively chewing their way out of a leaking SS BSJohnson: Photo of he and stalwart crew working (they assure us) under Covid restrictions ca May 2020.
Lacuna Synecdoche
@Emerald:
Yep. And I suspect his response will be to quit the party, as I note above.
germy
@WaterGirl:
I thought Manchin’s daughter was the EpiPen lady. She raised the price of insulin, too? If so, not surprising.
Healthcare, after all, is a bidness.
Baud
@WaterGirl:
Is Manchin’s daughter involved with insulin? I thought it was the EpiPen?
Major Major Major Major
Manchin is doing us a favor. BBB is a mess. None of its non-regulatory provisions will survive the next presidency, even if it’s a Dem. Do a few things and do them right; make them permanent; maybe don’t make the single biggest provision a tax cut for wealthy homeowners.
The climate provisions were pretty good, though. Those might be truly dead. But all of Manchin’s statements, for months, in public and private, have indicated that he wants fully funded permanent programs, which the caucus couldn’t bring themselves to write.
He’s also almost certainly being a cutout for other senators, too.
mrmoshpotato
@SiubhanDuinne:
At least 3 flipped Senate seats so the actual Democratic Senators can tell him and that child in Arizona to pound sand.
Yes, he’s Santa of Christmas Future.
WaterGirl
@germy: Did you see my entire comment?
The insulin thing was an indirect hit; I still think it’s a shot across the bow.
WaterGirl
@Baud: See my reply to germy at #52.
Spanky
Well, I’m not a nice person anymore, so …
I heard McConnell on the radio a week or so ago, and I must say I was shocked. Nay, exhilarated. That fucker sounds like he is very much not long for this world.
James E Powell
@Pharniel:
Who is Bau?
germy
@WaterGirl:
Ah, I see now.
I think you’re right.
(I wish I could have been a fly on the wall when they were composing this response. Imagine the stuff they decided to leave out?)
Emerald
@Lacuna Synecdoche: Maybe. As I said above, however, he loses all his power the instant he does it.
Ksmiami
@Bobby Thomson: exactly- cut him loose.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’m assuming Manchin was offered the moon and the stars to switch parties when the GOP majority was smaller in ’17– just like Olympia Snowe was before Specter’s jump, as I recall. I think if he didn’t take it then, he’s not going to do it now, not before November, certainly. And McConnell would have to be willing to give him something, keep his chair and his seniority, which means some Republicans (I think) would have to agree to giving up seniority, which is real currency in the Senate.
SiubhanDuinne
@Suzanne:
Biden Inaugural Party?
Baud Invented Pantslessness?
I’m sure I should know what BIP stands for, but off the top of my head I don’t.
Major Major Major Major
He isn’t going to change parties, guys. This is still negotiation. Maybe people will actually respond to his terms now.
SiubhanDuinne
@WaterGirl:
Works, but poor horse.
MazeDancer
@Emerald:
And judges. No Manchin, no judges.
Manchin is lucky WV has a Republican Governor. As is Sinema, Otherwise, not only would they need to tighten their security, they would have already been recalled.
Kay
Oh, good. It’s worth fighting for. Isolate the douchebag.
The United States should pass BBB because the United States has to start worrying about quality of life for people in this country. It doesn’t have to be this hard to have a family on a middle class income. I know the majority of the burden falls on women and we’re backward on women in the US, but come on. I swear it will benefit men too, so if that’s what needed it’s there.
We can’t just keep shoving cheap consumer goods at them and calling that “a life”. They need help with childcare and family leave. Don’t we want healthy, thriving families? We’ve fallen behind all the other countries in our income and wealth tier.
germy
@Spanky:
He’ll outlive us all.
waysel
@WaterGirl: That was my thought about the insulin mention as well, when first I read it. A big hint to Manchin about his daughters vulnerabilities.
Kent
I sort of doubt it. He will be unelectable as a Republican because he voted twice to impeach Trump. I don’t see him getting through a GOP primary full of true believer crazies if there is some true local MAGA candidate to vote for. Mitch McConnell can’t prop him up. And why would he anyway if he is going to get a junior MAGA clone in his place. He doesn’t actually need Manchin and all his prima donna bullshit, he only needs one more GOP reliable vote
There is no space in the GOP anymore for performative independent centrist types, except perhaps in a few blue states.
WaterGirl
@germy: insert maniacal laughter at your last sentence.
Baud
@germy:
She’s a golddigger.
Lacuna Synecdoche
@Cameron:
I didn’t either. In fact, I’ve made the same argument in the past that Emerald does here:
But going on Fox News to kill BBB is a major “Fuck You” to President Biden and Democrats. There’s really no way he does this if he’s planning to stay in the party.
He’s already gone, we’re just waiting for the announcement at this point.
Emerald
@Major Major Major Major: Yup. There’s wiggle room in the phrase “this legislation.” And Congress is out of session right now, with a couple of weeks to do behind-the-scene stuff.
But I love the WH statement. I think that will get a response. Manchin’s obviously a coward. Punching cowards usually has the effect of the coward backing off.
Major Major Major Major
@Kent: it’s not like anybody would be happier if he said it on CNN. Fox was the show he was invited to, I imagine. Not the first time he’s surprised everyone with a Sunday morning proclamation.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Loved one of the replies:
germy
@Baud:
Well, she ain’t hanging with no broke turtles.
SiubhanDuinne
@WaterGirl:
Yes, that was lovely.
Kay
I personally would attack him on voting rights legislation too. He has no intention of passing it and intends to just jerk people around for the next 6 months while basking in the limelight and playing President. Start blaming him now. He’s vain. A strutting peacock who doesn’t come through. It will humiliate him and really isn’t that enough reason to do it? :)
Say that. Say he “doesn’t come through”. He doesn’t. Completely accurate.
MisterForkbeard
The only real contribution I have to this is that I’m seeing surprisingly little about it on the various websites I read. Like, it’s often THERE, but it’s not even showing up in Facebook yet (and it would, as a high-engagement topic).
Maybe we’re getting to the point where the endless “Manchin reverses prior commitments and kneecaps Biden” stories just aren’t that shocking or interesting anymore.
NotoriousJRT
@SiubhanDuinne: A video of all the Tiny Tims that he so casually re-consigns to the poor houses of WVA and all over the nation?
MisterForkbeard
@Kay: I think that’s where this is going.
Basically: They should say outright that Manchin tried to do this for over 6 months and failed to get a single republican to vote for his voting bill. And that they’re not going to give him another 6 months to fuck around on the voting bill and delay and then eventually turn it down like he did with BBB.
He doesn’t deliver and doesn’t live up to his promises.
germy
I remember he made a fuss when VP Harris visited his state to do some media appearances, but didn’t give him a “heads up” first.
Another Scott
I’m reminded of the time in January when Harris had an interview with a WV TV station (and also with an AZ TV station) and talked about the Administration priorities. Manchin had a pouty sad.
But a lot of things got done afterwards.
Reminder: The checks were $1400, with an income cutoff ($75k individual, $150k joint).
Jen is letting him know, again, that they know how politics is played.
Cheers,
Scott.
James E Powell
@Kay:
Say “His word is no good.”
Spanky
@MisterForkbeard: So today’s the day Joey Manchin jumped the shark?
mrmoshpotato
@scav:
Not HMS BSJohnson?
Kay
@James E Powell:
Yup. Here’s another example where he made big noise and wasted everyone’s time and accomplished nothing:
He couldn’t even get a weak-ass background check passed and he hogged the whole issue and ruined it for anyone who COULD have gotten it done.
Republicans played him. They screwed around and flattered him and ran out the clock on the urgency of the slaughtered 1st graders. Either that or he was working with them to the same ends, but it doesn’t matter.
His word is no good. He’s a leader with no followers. He can’t deliver.
Baud
@MisterForkbeard:
Dog bites Biden isn’t news.
Lacuna Synecdoche
@Emerald:
Oh, I completely agree. The GOP’s raison d’etre is to block Dems when they’re in power, and pass tax cuts when Republicans are in power – which means no pork for WV no matter who’s in power.
Basically, he’ll have screwed himself. But I don’t see how he stays a Democrat after this.
Ksmiami
@MisterForkbeard: just start governing through EOs… the Senate is going the way of the Senatoria during the Roman Empire anyway. Oh and Manchin fucking sucks. Dump his ass
scav
@mrmoshpotato: Well, I had rather wanted to allow Her Majesty the privilege of distancing herself. She’s got enough embarrassment on her gilt plate.
JPL
@Lacuna Synecdoche: yup Leader McConnell will block all other nominations, including Breyer’s if he were to step down.
Steeplejack
@James E Powell:
“Beau of the Fifth Column,” the guy in the YouTube video at the top of the post.
mrmoshpotato
@SiubhanDuinne: Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan
mrmoshpotato
@scav: I see. Very kind of you.
CaseyL
There’s no longer anything to go after Manchin’s daughter with: she sold the pharma company for enormous googobs of bucks some time ago and isn’t in charge of it anymore.
IIRC, it closed down completely shortly thereafter.
James E Powell
If this is it, then I’d like to hear from other Democratic senators. They are free to use stronger language than the White House. I’d also recommend that Democrats running to replace Republicans in OH, PA, and WI make sure everyone knows that their election will ameliorate Manchin & Sinema.
germy
A response to McArdle:
Ksmiami
@JPL: we can win more seats without Manchin anyway. He’s sucked up too much time and resources already. Enough
SiubhanDuinne
@WaterGirl:
I think so too. And there’s no question in my mind that our Joe is a street fighter when necessary. He’s tough, but he’s also strategic. It’s a good combination.
Steeplejack
@SiubhanDuinne:
I think it’s the Bipartisan Infrastructure [something], the previous bill that was passed.
SiubhanDuinne
@mrmoshpotato:
Well, yes, that would be wonderful.
Kay
People should also start saying “no one elected Joe Manchin President”
Well, “people”. All of us people. The rabble.
In no way does this person reflect the base of the Democratic Party – he’s way far Right of just about all of it and he can’t even give us a state. Plus, he’s corrupt so that’s gross and we don’t want that out front.
Tell him to go work on the background checks he assured us he had in the bag in 2013. Still waiting for that.
topclimber
Some people say Manchin is a coal tool because of his ample but not huge personal investments. He wants that asset to keep going.
Other people say he is a coal tool because God knows how much leverage a Senator could have helping China keep and develop its coal reserves.
Joe Manchin: PRC Puppet.
SiubhanDuinne
@James E Powell:
Three-quarters of a Baud. Did you never study math?
germy
raven
@WaterGirl: ADA ”
Mike in NC
West Virginia probably has several National Guard armories. Maybe a few need to be permanently closed.
germy
TriassicSands
The numbers of dead will be in the thousands. Most will be elderly and immuno-compromised. Most of those will be vaccinated. I just don’t see the “death gap” as being a game-changer for either party.
If the omicron variant does what it looks like it will do — highly contagious with mostly mild or asymptomatic disease among younger people (<60-65) and those with normal immune systems, then the actual impact on voting may be more significant for Democrats than for Republicans. I think this fellow’s prediction is iffy, at best, and more likely wrong.
That said, I wouldn’t base any predictions on polling, especially if you are trying to extrapolate from polling on an issue to how someone will ultimately vote. Some issues may make it easy — e.g., abortion if the person is anti-abortion, but not necessarily if the person is pro-choice. But favoring vaccinations doesn’t mean a person won’t vote for Republicans. Millions of Americans who seemingly should be guaranteed votes for Democrats, routinely vote for Republicans.
SiubhanDuinne
@Baud:
The Anna Nicole Smith of terrapins.
Gin & Tonic
Welp, just found out my daughter, whom I visited with on Thursday and Friday, has tested positive for covid. Everyone in our immediate family is vaxxed, boosted and otherwise healthy, so I am hopeful. But still not a good present from St. Nick ( on the Julian calendar.)
Subsole
@SiubhanDuinne: Coprolite.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
the erstwhile Mangy Jay has a lot of good observations today
Subsole
@Emerald: This argument loses a good deal of its deterrent power if Manchin is too stupid/venal to game it out to the degree you have.
topclimber
@Kay:
He comes through for China’s coal all the time.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I mean, it’s never enough. It’s not a new concept at this point.
JoyceH
@raven: Off on a tangent, but has anyone here seen Life In Color, with David Attenborough? It’s basically about, well, how color is used in living things. For instance, did you know that tigers are actually camouflaged? It’s true! The prey species, grazers and what not, can’t see into the red spectrum, so the tiger looks sort of greenish to them, and blends right into the background.
One particular species of deer tends to hang around with a species of primates, who CAN see the red spectrum. So when a tiger is trying to sneak up on the deer, the monkeys in the trees see it and start screaming so all the deer run away. (Cats can’t see the red spectrum either – Attenborough says solemnly, “The tiger does not know that it is orange.” )
SiubhanDuinne
@mrmoshpotato:
Duh. Thanks.
Emerald
@Subsole: That is a fair point, and I have thought of it. However, his talent, if he has one, appears to be not much more than the gaining and holding onto power. He has more as a Democrat than as a Republican.
Plus, I doubt he could be re-elected as a Republican because, as somebody upthread pointed out, he voted twice to impeach trump. That fact kills him in a primary.
Of course, I also doubt that he can get re-elected without the votes of Democrats, a fact he appears not to have considered during his recent “negotiations.” So that weighs with your point more than with mine.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud:
sure, I’m just glad she’s in the ring fighting the Usual Suspects
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Yes, agreed. There was precious little push back during the Obama years.
Cameron
Today is the day Joe Manchin became Presidential.
Doug R
@Spanky:
Are those zombie bites finally taking effect?
SiubhanDuinne
@germy:
Holy fuck, is McArdle ignorant or stupid or both?
You are anything but naïve, Meghan.
topclimber
@germy:
Not the sort of slight from a darkish woman that he would cotton to, me thinks.
Bobby Thomson
The source of that updated its analysis. They made a mistake and the cosplay socialist talking point is wrong.
WaterGirl
@CaseyL: I am sorry to hear that.
Feathers
I just had to mute a bunch of folks on Twitter. Apparently the entire Dem progressive agenda is a false front hiding the fact that they actually believe in the same things as Republicans. Manchin is just giving them cover. Sigh.
I really do enjoy and support neurodiverse twitter, but sometimes it’s all I can do to not let loose with “All those things that you say are untrue, this is what they are talking about!”
germy
@SiubhanDuinne:
An absolute dummy can rise to the top of the media, if she says the right (conservative) things. She was mentored by the Kochs.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Emerald:
How many West Va Dems are there, and how many of them agree with Manchin’s proclaimed worries about Debt-and-Deficit? I suspect Cole could hold a convention of outraged WV progressives under his willow tree.
Manchin was IIRC a popular governor, and has the kind of old school political connections Harry Reid had/has in Nevada. I think his 2018 re-election was very much a case of people voting for the individual not the party. I’ve read conflicting reports (online political gossip really) about his desire to be re-elected. For a while the CW was that he was unhappy in the Senate and was going to retire– and doing so before teh mid-terms would be a real Fuck You to Biden–, and more recently that he plans to run again. Fukifino, as Betty Cracker once observed.
WaterGirl
@germy: Is there context for that? I have no idea who the guy is, if he plays on our team or the other team, whether this is a good move or a bad move.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Feathers:
I remember this from 2009-16, but not so much from the Clinton years. There were people who got angry, certainly, but not so much of the screams of betrayal. But maybe that’s because the political internet was just breaking out of the shell
James E Powell
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
They could, if the tree wasn’t so close to the house.
Emerald
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Oh I agree that there aren’t many WV Democrats. But they do exist, and he still needs their votes to get elected. Those anti-trump votes will kill him with too many Republicans to overcome his need for Democratic support.
But I defer to actual West by God Virginians on that score.
Bobby Thomson
What do the 48 Democratic senators do at that point? Just pull the bill and hope they get more seats next year?
Feathers
@Major Major Major Major: The problem with the blue state tax issue is that red states just keep their taxes very low and provide no services. If we don’t want blue states to go down the same path (and they will), the federal government does need to recognize what is going on an balance out the difference.
Of course what I’d like to see is some way to capture taxes on red state grifters, but I’m not someone who would know how to do that.
trollhattan
@SiubhanDuinne: B. “Both” plus preening self-assuredness and unwarranted superiority complex.
SiubhanDuinne
@raven:
I have good colour acuity, but there’s a packaged rice or pasta thing I buy occasionally (because it’s tasty) that I invariably regret because the preparation instructions are in yellow type on a light peach background. Or maybe it’s peach on yellow, I forget. Either way, it’s unreadable. Incredibly stupid for a major brand to blunder like that.
SiubhanDuinne
@Subsole:
Petrified shit, perfect.
sab
@guachi: Hear!Hear!
Subsole
@Emerald: Joe Manchin. The Enigma I cannot be arsed to figure out.
raven
@JoyceH: Cool!
germy
@WaterGirl:
Lippincott writes for The Federalist. He’s deplorable.
He finally went too far for twitter when he said all of Biden’s administration are undesirables who came through Ellis Island (except for teh blacks). He’s been banned from twitter.
He’s an example of a “conservative intellectual” our betters keep wanting us to take seriously.
Subsole
@SiubhanDuinne: And THAT right there is why Miz Mcarglesauce makes the long dollars, folks.
TriassicSands
The numbers of dead will be in the thousands. Most will be elderly and immuno-compromised. Most of those will be vaccinated. I just don’t see the “death gap” as being a game-changer for either party.
If the omicron variant does what it looks like it will do — highly contagious with mostly mild or asymptomatic disease among younger people (<60-65) and those with normal immune systems, then the actual impact on voting may be more significant for Democrats than for Republicans. I think th is fellow’s prediction is iffy, at best, and more likely wrong.
That said, I wouldn’t base any predictions on polling, especially if you are trying to extrapolate from polling on an issue to how someone will ultimately vote. Some issues may make it easy — e.g., abortion if the person is anti-abortion, but not necessarily if the person is pro-choice. But favoring vaccinations doesn’t mean a person won’t vote for Republicans. Millions of Americans who seemingly should be guaranteed votes for Democrats, routinely vote for Republicans.
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: Very sorry to hear that.
I think we are going to see a lot of that over the next few weeks, but this is one time when you don’t want to be ahead of the curve
edit: I added a tweet in the comments of the covid post that said that with Omicron, it moves so fast that people are infecting others before they even know they are sick. It’s a really good twitter thread with lots of good information.
So there is a much higher rate of people getting covid within households than there was with the previous variants.
Mike E
@Gin & Tonic: I feel your pain, sorry. My immediate circle of friends got hit at Thanksgiving by covid but everyone was up to date on shots…the only lingering case is my HS friend whom I dropped off at the house in question, blechh. We were ensconced in the formal sitting room that Wednesday night, away from the carriers in question, a place we would hardly ever occupy during normal times so that bit of luck prevented me from exposing my family gathering later on. What a wake-up call. Two years into this and we’re no closer to whatever passes for normal these days. Fuck.
Geminid
@James E Powell: And North Carolina, replacing Richard Burr. Democratic State Senator Jeff Jackson is withdrawing from the Senate race, more or less clearing the field for former State Supreme Court Justice Cherie Beasley.
Meanwhile on the Republican side, former NC Governor Pat McCrory and trump-endorsed Congressman Ted Budd are spending their money tearing each other down.
different-church-lady
@WaterGirl:
They’re the same thing, really.
Cmorenc
@guachi:
manchin would rather cross biden and his fellow democrats than to displease his corporate backers who provide him richly with funding and support – and they may have informed him that whether they stick with him in 2024 or switch to his gop opponent depends on his not straying too far from the corporate reservation (such as supporting BBB in anything more than a vastly stripped down version that omits everything his backers object to). manchin does have enough of a streak of genuine traditional conservative economic ideology to half-convince himself he is doing the right thing, rather than the reality that he is bought and paid for by the big-business lobby.
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: Well, it was called the BIF before it was the BIP, so don’t feel too bad about that.
Subsole
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
The internet is part of it. But qa larger part is because that whole memeplex is part of the sacred gospel of the Bird Man of Burlington.
See, if the two parties are the same, then I can sit at home and let the fascists take over, while still keeping that sweet, sweet sense of self-righteousness as I yell about how the public I refused to show up for failed ME.
Basically, people who want to punish the rest of us to death for rejecting the People’s Commissar of the Vermont Oblast are joyfully regurgitating Broderism cut with Alex Jones-grade conspiracy horseshit to justify their ongoing sulk.
NuSocialism: why settle for a five year plan when you can have a five year tantrum instead?
JoyceH
@TriassicSands: The ratio of Republicans dying from COVID versus Democrats is close to three to one. And there’s going to be another voting impact that I don’t think has been considered – the voting restrictions that Republican legislatures are putting in place are going to make it more difficult for people with disabilities to vote, and many times more people who experience COVID will develop long COVID than die from it. So they’ll probably lose as many voters just from people who can’t make it to the polls as they do from death.
sab
@syphonblue: He is not up until 2024, so we are stuck with him until then. Can’t do us much more harm than he has already until 2023 when he could vote for Mitch McConnell.
He does seem to hold grudges forever. Ask Neera Tanden, who criticized his daughter and the overpriced epi-pens But there needs to be pushback on really blazingly public bad faith negotiating because it makes good faith actors look like chumps and idiots if they don’t push back.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
Will the vaccination rate difference lose elections for the GOP? I’m not inclined to believe it. Maybe if the census was next year instead of last year, there would have been some interesting shifts. As it stands, i think they gain more in angry enthusiasm from angry anti-mask, anti-vaccine folks than they lose in deaths. I think the medical bills will start to errode some of their grassroots fundraising. But the very rich have the GOPs back, financially.
Subsole
@germy: Hundreds of years later, and the Irish still ain’t white enough for Republicans.
Major Major Major Major
@Feathers: I don’t think the federal government should be on the hook for California’s housing policy. Exclude property taxes and I won’t really care.
WaterGirl
@germy: thank you!
Geminid
@Subsole: May the Curse of Cromwell be upon them!
xjmuellerlurks
I’ve followed Beau of the Fifth Column (vid at end of the post) on YouTube for a couple years now. I like the perspective he provides. He’s also on twitter (@BeauTFC). Good sense of humor, community minded. He makes his points in interesting ways. For me it’s worth investing a few minutes every day to see what he has to say. It’s just a thought…
The Pale Scot
So what federal policies could be altered or what federal subsidies could be stopped to just let nature take its course in the red states? Yes I’m stone hearted. 10-15 years from now climate change is going to be laying waste to the world’s major farm areas. Don’t we owe it to the young that are going to have to live in that world to get rid of as many morons and their moronic spawn as we can?
Kattails
Manchin is may be thinking that he doesn’t actually need employment anymore, in which case he will do whatever the hell suits HIM personally. If he does rather like the senatorial life then there may well be a bit of performative art going on all around— although the White House message is pretty strong stuff.
I also agree with Majorx4 that it may be a blessing to do some re-writes on the bill to give it better staying power.
I’ve got to note that Maggie Hassan has come out in favor of nuking the filibuster, which is a bit of a bold move for her given that her seat is under fire. I need to call her office to state my approval, and send a few bucks.
WaterGirl
@JoyceH: I have no idea whether people with disabilities are evenly split between parties or not, but if they do trend one way more than the other, wouldn’t they tend to vote democrat – for the party that actually gives a shit about people who aren’t rich or powerful?
Dorothy A. Winsor
@JoyceH: Old people also like to vote by mail. That may impact R voters too
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@WaterGirl: One of the main Tea Party organizers in MO was on disability. Its more about the culture war with these people than anything else.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: I hope all will be okay.
sixthdoctor
@Spanky: Oh, the second I see the tweet or headline that McConnell dropped dead I will cheer and dance the Charleston and I could be in a church or having a prostate exam at the time and it won’t matter.
Geminid
@Major Major Major Major: Sanders, Menendez and other Senators intend to cut back the increase in the SALT tax in their bill (if they can ever get it passed).
Personally, I think the House bill went too far on lifting the SALT tax exemption. But I favor more limited relief. When Republicans limited the exemption to $10,000, they claimed they were resolving some red state/blue state tax inequity. They were lying. The intent was to drive middle and upper middle class suburbanites to vote for tax-cutting local and state Republican politicians.
lowtechcyclist
@SiubhanDuinne:
To quote Firesign Theatre:
TriassicSands
Manchin can look to McConnell for guidance. Despite his monumental hypocrisy and bad faith, Mitch has paid no price. Manchin can count on WVa voters¹ being poorly informed and politically disengaged. What percentage of WVa voters has any real idea of what’s in the BBB? They see inflation at the store and Joe Manchin says INFLATION!!! and reality doesn’t matter.
¹ As well as countless voters in every state.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@sixthdoctor: I’m trying to think of who the Rs might have who can run their Senate caucus the way McConnell does, and I’m coming up blank
Spanky
@sixthdoctor:
And if it’s both at the same time, does that mean it’s a Catholic church?
Spanky
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Oh yes! It’s going to be an epic slap fight amongst newly freed submissives.
lowtechcyclist
@Spanky:
That’s an obituary I would read with great pleasure.
Ascap_scab
It’s time for Joe Biden to cut a deal with Lisa Murkowski. Make her a hero in Alaska.
sixthdoctor
@Spanky: Touché.
Since it’s an OT: Asked my wife what Xmas movie she wanted to watch now and she said “Well, I’ve never seen Die Hard,” so we have it on now and it just proves again I married very, very well.
Kattails
PS kids , two days until the solstice, hang in there. In the meantime I’m going to go make some rum balls for Christmas.
Steeplejack (phone)
@sixthdoctor:
Somebody on Twitter said that Die Hard is not a Christmas movie, it’s a Harry Potter movie, because Bruce Willis spends the entire time running away from Alan Rickman in a dark tower.
piratedan
If Manchin chooses to flounce, i seriously doubt that he would walk to the GOP. He’ll do the independent iconoclast bit that allows him to entertain bids for his vote like he does now. Again as odious as he is… we must always remember that none of the supposed GOP moderates are supporting this or any other Dem sponsored legislation. NONE.
they won’t do anything to stop the GOP madness…. none of them want to hold their party accountable for the attempted coup. Nary a one in the Senate.
I still want to understand who has the kind of control and leverage to manage that.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Kattails:
Tuesday at 10:58 a.m. EST. I’m ready!
TriassicSands
@JoyceH:
We’ll see, but I don’t think the numbers will be great enough to overcome the gerrymandering, targeted voting restrictions aimed at minorities, and demonstrated reliability of Republican voters over Democratic voters (or those who should be voting for Democrats).
I most certainly would not count on this being a deciding factor.
TriassicSands
Out of consideration for your doctor, please give him or her some advance warning of the imminent celebration.
Ruckus
@germy:
That horserace stuff, sells more newspapers and computer time, it keeps people rilled up and looking for answers. Which sells more of the same. Working one side only sells them stuff for that one side. The powers that sign the checks for those reporters like the more rather than the less. That horse race stuff pays off for them. Sure they, and all the rest of us, have our sides we vote on, but that making more money today part is what they think about in their professional lives, because it makes, in their minds, a better life for them. When news was far more local they could focus on the side they liked, now it’s not just competition in their town, it’s nation wide. And that competition affects them, and their bottom line. And it’s not just one side, both sides of the aisle do this. How many online sites now have membership/fees to even read them? John had to have ads to keep this place going.
Geminid
@Ascap_scab: I don’t think Murkowski will make any big moves until she is reelected next year. Even then she probably won’t switch caucuses, maybe just vote more often with Democrats on policy matters. She already has voted for a number of President Biden’s judicial and other nominees.
Alaska will introduce a new election system next year. All candidates will compete in a ranked choice “jungle” primary. Then, the top four will run in a November ranked choice election.
Murkowski lost the 2010 Republican primary, then ran and won as a write-in candidate. That was a heavy lift. I read that the support of organized labor and Native Corporations made the difference.
sab
@sixthdoctor: Lion in Winter is on TCM Dec 21 pm and Dec 27 am. Epic scenery chewing by two legends and a bunch of young actors who later became famous.
debbie
@sab:
One of my all-time favorites!
sab
@debbie: Mine too. Also it allowed Peter OToole to redeem himself for his portrayal of Henry II as a snivelling wimp in Becket.
trollhattan
Star in your own caper movie, get a delivery drone and begin filming.
HalfAssedHomesteader
Yeah, this is a strong statement but TBH my 1st choice was something along the lines of, “We’re so glad Sens Manchin and Sinema have finally come around to reality and put the needs of their constituents before the demands of their donors”. Make Manchin Irrelevant Again ’22.
Geminid
@TriassicSands: In a couple months, the new Congressional maps should be done (although some may still be changed by lawsuits, especially in states covered by the Voting Roghts Act). I’m hoping there will be a post or two on the subject then. Red state legislatures will do some damage, but so will blue state legislatures. Right now I think that if districts actually vote as drawn, the net increase for Republicans will be in the single digits.
California will be a wild card. They have a commission-drawn map that will theoretically be neutral. Demographic and political trends may yield some Democratic pick ups, though.
J R in WV
Extremely dislike Joe Manchin as a human being AND as a politician. Terrible person, self centered to the exclusion of everything else. Operates on pure greed for money and power.
I am born and raised in WV, lived here all my life but for service in the Navy 1970s. Also embarrassed to confess Manchin is born and raised here as well.
Feathers
@Major Major Major Major: If it were just California, I’d agree. The issue is NY, NJ, CT, PA, and the DC suburbs. Do you want to hamstring Dems running in all those states?
The problem is having turned housing into a source of wealth generation through price speculation. But the only way to deal with that is electing a lot more Dems.
Emerald
@TriassicSands: I doubt that Republican Covid deaths will matter, even if they were to make a difference if some elections.
Republicans don’t plan on winning elections with votes anymore.
The Moar You Know
@The Pale Scot: Stop all federal transfer payments; blue states support red states (with the exception of Texas) with federal tax dollars overwhelmingly.
Just giving CA and NY every tax dollar they collect, instead of shipping 30% off to the red states, would bankrupt every red state in the Union.
TriassicSands
But that is added to a condition that already gives Republicans a very significant undemocratic advantage. The last thing I read about Colorado had a neutral commission giving unwarranted advantage to the Republicans.
It would be fun to see a blue state zero out the GOP with the most outrageous districts imaginable. Send that to John Roberts and let him continue to say the SCOTUS shouldn’t get involved. Roberts’ so-called moderate votes never involve hurting Republican electoral prospects. Racist gerrymandering? Gut the VRA to allow that. Wildly undemocratic “political” gerrymandering that favors Republicans? Ooh, the Court must not get involved!!!
TriassicSands
An important point.
Carol
Now all the Democrats have to do is run someone against Manchin who runs on sharp sound bites what exactly every person in WVa will miss out on and have to pay because of their senator.
dexwood
@SiubhanDuinne: One very pissed off rattlesnake.
burnspbesq
@Sure Lurkalot:
No. It will take years to bring IRS staffing back to where it was before Congressional Republicans took a chainsaw to the agency’s budget. And you can only collect what has been assessed. Exams have to come first.
Geminid
@TriassicSands: Like Colorado, Virginia had a novel redistricting commission to draw maps this year. The commission dealocked and punted the problem to the state Supreme Court. They in turn hired two special masters to come up with a neutral map that may be changed somewhat after a public hearing. The map disappointed Democrats, especially those still upset that the Democrats in the General Assembly allowed the Redistricting Amendment to pass next year. Their belief is that Democrats could convert their current 7-4 majority to 8 safe seats. Now it lookes like 4 safe, two kind of safe (11th and 7th), while Elaine Luria’s 2nd District has gone from D+2 to tossup. Once the Redistricting Amendment made it past the legislature, voters ratified it by a 2 -1 margin last November.
I don’t know about Colorado, but the problem in Virginia is that Democratic voters are concentrated in Northern Virginia and Richmond, and to a lesser extent in parts of the Hampton Roads area. A clever gerrymander could divide these concentrations like pie slices centered on the Democratic areas. But a map drawn for compactness and keeping communities intact led to some D+30 districts. Still, Virginia is about a 54%D/46%R state, so a 7-4 Democratic Congressional delegation, if we can keep it, would not be a bad outcome. But some Democrats are still pretty hot about forgoing that 8-3 map.
Brachiator
@burnspbesq:
Also, the IRS has been tasked with administration of the stimulus payments, child tax credit checks and other matters.
It’s crazy.
Geminid
@TriassicSands: Despite Shelby, the Voting Rights Act still has some teeth. A lawsuit under the VRA resulted in Democrat Dan McEachin winning the redrawn Virginia 4th District in 2016. Another resulted in redrawing eleven Virginia House of Delegates seats in 2019. Last year Democrats in North Carolina won two Congressional seats redrawn after a VRA lawsuit.
A federal court has already imposed a delay on candidate filings while it considers a VRA challenge to North Carolina’s new map. And Texas’ new map seems especially vulnerable to the VRA challenge there. Of course, the success of these challenges cannot be counted upon.
Matt McIrvin
@germy: Lippincott also openly argues that we were on the wrong side in World War II, and considers the Byzantine Empire, Czarist Russia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire as examples our system of government should strive to emulate.
germy
@Matt McIrvin:
He’s a deplorable.
Meghan McCain’s husband’s magazine. And she goes on TV and plays the common-sense realist.
Matt McIrvin
I really doubt the political gain from Republican voters literally dying will be that large. COVID just isn’t lethal enough, and many of these people are in deep-red districts where it doesn’t matter. It’s got to be a race that’s right on the margin.
Unfortunately, the 2020 census was timed so that it mostly came after the big wave of Democrats dying of COVID, but before it really started to hit Republicans hard. So we probably lost out on that one.
MisterForkbeard
@Bobby Thomson: They put someone else in charge of it and/or tell Manchin to tell them up front what he’s vote for and that’s where they’ll start.
Don’t waste time. Get shit done.
Sanjuro58
Beau of the Fifth Column is a daily youtube watch for me. He is very adept at laying out communication strategies to deal with your asshole uncle at the holiday dinner table as well as the other daily assholes you might meet. I think he is very good at interpreting what is happening in American politics today. His strategies mostly seem to revolve around interacting with the repubtards or unvaxxed on subjects they are fond of talking about, but spinning it around where they either have to dishonestly continue with their belief in spite of using their talking points against them or will have to reconsider or even abandon their position.