Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

How can republicans represent us when they don’t trust women?

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

There are some who say that there are too many strawmen arguments on this blog.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

Fani Willis claps back at Trump chihuahua, Jim Jordan.

Nikki Haley, who can’t acknowledge ‘slavery’, is a pathetic shill.

We won’t go back.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

Trump makes a mockery of the legal system and cowardly judges just sit back and let him.

Washington Post’s Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

“woke” is the new caravan.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Let’s finish the job.

Happy indictment week to all who celebrate!

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

with the Kraken taking a plea, the Cheese stands alone.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

It could be worse. Vance could have said “post-menopausal sows.” Waiting for that audiotape to surface.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Open Thread: What If ?

Open Thread: What If ?

by | 131 Comments

This post is in: ,

Years ago I read a book that suggested that if you are someone who is going to cause yourself anxiety by thinking about What If [this terrible thing happens] then you should also do the exercise of thinking about What If [the terrible thing doesn’t happen], What If [this awesome thing happens]?

Surely it can’t hurt to think about the world that could be, the one we are fighting for.

Is anyone willing to play along this morning?

Open thread.

 

Reader Interactions

131Comments

  7. 7.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: Would we have universal healthcare?  No kids in poverty?  What are the first three things you would do?  And you can’t skip the third one like that other guy did.

    edit: I’ll give you a hint, climate change should probably be one of them.

  10. 10.

    Baud

    @WaterGirl: 

    Would we have universal healthcare?

    Everyone will be covered, including pets!

    No kids in poverty?

    Absolutely. I plan to send in the National Guard to get every child out of Poverty, Kentucky.

    And you can’t skip the third one like that other guy did.

    Oops (I did it again!)

  12. 12.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @WaterGirl: Denmark with a more diverse population and more taco trucks.  And skiing.  Maybe I mean Norway or Sweden.  Not Finland, the Finns know what they did, the sonsabitches.

  13. 13.

    MagdaInBlack

    I ask myself if the “what if” is anything I have any control over. If it is not, then I do not dwell. If I can do something about it, I do whatever that is.
    But I no longer dwell (much)on things that are beyond my control, nor do I dwell (much) on things that did or “should have” happened.
    It works in my little world.

  15. 15.

    WaterGirl

    @Omnes Omnibus: I am on board for the taco trucks, taco trucks not being on every corner has been a big disappointment.

    I say “three strikes and you’re out” rule gets initiated for the White House Press Corpse.  Three stupid questions and you lose your spot for a month to small local journalist.  Or a fourth grader.

  16. 16.

    schrodingers_cat

    I do a probability analysis of the likely scenarios,  the worst case scenario and the best case scenario. In politics the results end up being a superposition of the extremes.

    You actually do that when you constructing any  scientific theory. Look at the limits, the extreme cases. Check whether your solution is well behaved (it doesn’t blow up, has a zero in the denominator) at the extremes

    That’s why I find the “analysis” that everything will always favor Republicans devoid of realism.

  22. 22.

    brendancalling

    Ever since Canada announced travel bans, then walked it back, then indicated that there will be restrictions, my family has been playing a game of “What if…” over whether my son will visit his Philly family for the first time since February 2020.

    It is exhausting. Earlier this week it was “what if the borders close and he can’t come back?” Then it was “what if he CAN come back but he has to quarantine for 10-14 days?” Now it’s looking more like “what if he can make it after all?”

  27. 27.

    m.j.

    What if I could walk into an elevator with Paul McCartney and share the lift? Would I tell him I felt the love in his melodic bass playing on George Harrison’s Abbey Road songs, or would I leave him alone?

  29. 29.

    BeautifulPlumage

    What if you made some of your work account passwords to be “Fuckmanchin” or “Manchinsux” and you needed to type those several times a week. Is the universe listening?

    (asking for a friend)

  32. 32.

    The Dangerman

    I think my Top 2 are related (warning, no coffee yet): Universal Basic Income and a Wealth Tax. A painful one with teeth if there is dodging.

    Three is mental health care, which should help with homelessness (maybe that falls under Universal Health Care).

  38. 38.

    oldgold

    ESTRAGON: I can’t go on like this.
    VLADIMIR: That’s what you think.
    Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot

  39. 39.

    Chris Johnson

    What if… our enemies are only a pack of misguided, criminal assholes with no special powers beyond eking out victories through enormous effort at misinformation and corruption of the body politic, an effort that has the side effect of disproportionately killing the very people they need to be voters, and of disproportionately stressing out and damaging the very people they need to be terrorist soldiers?

  41. 41.

    Rocks

    Passing and enforcing a voting rights act with teeth.

    Rearranging the US govenrment (especially the Supreme Court and the Senate) so that all people are fairly represented and we no longer are subjected to the dictatorship of the impovrished, resentful few (i.e., the current Republican party).

    Effective, funded actino towards climate change and infrastructure.

  42. 42.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @BeautifulPlumage:

    During my decades of having a work computer, where we were required to change the password once a month, I routinely used either affirmations for things I wanted in my life or opprobrious epithets aimed at people and things I wanted out of it. Just, as you say, to put thoughts out into the universe.

  43. 43.

    bjacques

    What if Biden just takes the loss for now and he snd his administration later find other ways to accomplish parts of BBB—maybe with extensions—before having another go in the new year?

  45. 45.

    Math Guy

    What if the dominant mindset was to make the world a better place for the great-grandchildren?  Consider how that would affect the way we planned and thought about our actions today, taking into consideration the long-term consequences versus short-term gains.

  46. 46.

    sixthdoctor

    What if Biden comes out swinging?

    Oh, he did.

    WHITE HOUSE @PressSec on Joe Manchin’s remarks about BBB: “at odds with his discussions this week with the President… a sudden and inexplicable reversal in his position, and a breach of his commitments to the President and the Senator’s colleagues in the House and Senate.” pic.twitter.com/EfU1jIYkWW
    — Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) December 19, 2021

  50. 50.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @sixthdoctor:

    @sixthdoctor: just saw that

    Igor Bobic @igorbobic

    Wow, WH press sec Psaki: “Senator Manchin’s comments this morning on FOX are at odds with his discussions this week with the President, with White House staff, and with his own public utterances.”
    Psaki on Manchin: “If his comments on FOX and written statement indicate an end to that effort, they represent a sudden and inexplicable reversal in his position, and a breach of his commitments to the President and the Senator’s colleagues in the House and Senate.”
    More Psaki: “Just as Senator Manchin reversed his position on Build Back Better this morning, we will continue to press him to see if he will reverse his position yet again, to honor his prior commitments and be true to his word.”

  56. 56.

    Mousebumples

    What if…

    Manchin’s performance was planned? Eg Biden & team knew about it since the Left yelling at Manchin plays well in West Virginia.

    I know Manchin has been reluctant to do another big reconciliation bill in 2021, but what about a big 10-year child poverty bill NOW… And a 2022 reconciliation bill that’s more about climate and paid family leave and tax loophole closures next year?

    Do I want it all now? Of course. But if Manchin would support *something* now (and i think he’s expressed support for a 10 year child tax credit)… And then do a big 2022 something else for what gets cut now?

    That feels plausible. No, not ideal, but maybe workable.

  57. 57.

    bbleh

    Oh no, I’m never optimistic.

    What would happen if I were optimistic and then it didn’t turn out that way?  Ohhhh dear …

  60. 60.

    Brachiator

    Years ago I read a book that suggested that if you are someone who is going to cause yourself anxiety by thinking about What If [this terrible thing happens] then you should also do the exercise of thinking about What If [the terrible thing doesn’t happen], What If [this awesome thing happens]?

    I gave this some serious thought and realized that I simply and absolutely do not cause myself anxiety when thinking about a potentially terrible “what if.”

    This is probably one of the reasons I don’t find alarms about “doom and gloom” comments to be meaningful.

    But in considering the topic, I came up with this real world example.

    We have all been dealing with the pandemic. When the rush plan to develop a vaccine was announced, I never, ever thought “what if they fail to develop a workable vaccine? or “what if it takes them years to develop a vaccine?”

    I did sometimes ghoulishly imagine getting Covid before I had a chance to get the vaccine, but this was a gallows humor joke I told myself. Otherwise I simply did everything I could to keep safe and waited for my vaccine appointment.

    Also, considering negative consequences angers me and energizes me and helps me look for solutions.

    Surely it can’t hurt to think about the world that could be, the one we are fighting for.

    Oddly enough, I believe that the future world might be better than I can imagine.

  67. 67.

    WaterGirl

    @gene108: You don’t see value in acknowledging the What Ifs in both directions, even as you personally prefer to prepare for the worst?

    You don’t see value in acknowledging that:

    We. Just. Do. Not. Know. How. This. Is. Going. To. Turn. Out.

    For some people, it’s less painful to conclude that it’s going to be a disaster, because they just can’t bear the “we just do not know” part.

    Which I fully concede is a totally uncomfortable place to be.

  68. 68.

    Brachiator

    @WaterGirl:

    For some people, it’s less painful to conclude that it’s going to be a disaster, because they just can’t bear the “we just do not know” part.

    I love the “we just do not know part.”

    This is where hope and possibility live.

  70. 70.

    James E Powell

    @WaterGirl:

    What if Jen Psaki and therefore Joe Biden said exactly what you wished she would say?

    They never will because both of them are much better & smarter persons than I am. That’s why they are where they are while I am relegated to commenting on an almost top 10,000 blog.

  71. 71.

    The Thin Black Duke

    O.K., I”ll play. Here’s a “What If”:

    This guy thinks that as long as the GOP is the pro-Covid party, they’re going to be fucked in ’22.

    That’s the wild card in the deck.

  72. 72.

    Bill Arnold

    @schrodingers_cat:

    I do a probability analysis of the likely scenarios, the worst case scenario and the best case scenario. In politics the results end up being a superposition of the extremes.

    Thank you. That’s my default starting point for analysis as well.
    The problem then becomes determining what things to do to improve the probability of the acceptable or preferred outcomes, and/or to reduce the probability of unacceptable outcomes, and doing and/or encouraging others to do some subset of such actions, even when in very small ways.

  73. 73.

    Mike in Pasadena

    What if Democrats give up all leverage by passing infrastructure without also passing BBB and Manchin and Sinema vote for BBB? Oooopsie.

  74. 74.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Brachiator: Everyone knows I am a Captain Bringdown here, but about the COVID vaccines specifically, the thing I noticed was that the more somebody knew about viruses and vaccinology, the more confident they were that an effective vaccine would appear. So I wasn’t too worried that there would never be a vaccine. There were a lot of people out there who were. Some of them were even health-policy-wonk types. But they were NOT experts on coronaviruses or vaccinology.

    Generally, they didn’t predict just HOW effective. The level of effectiveness against original wild-type COVID was way off the charts compared to even what the developers expected. And that did end up creating a crisis of expectations later when different variants threw a wrench in that. But it was an incredible break.

  75. 75.

    WaterGirl

    @Bill Arnold:  I just wanted to see this again.

    The problem then becomes determining what things to do to improve the probability of the acceptable or preferred outcomes, and/or to reduce the probability of unacceptable outcomes, and doing and/or encouraging others to do some subset of such actions, even when in very small ways.

    By talking about the opposite, you have perfectly defined why I find it so frustrating when some people here declare that the results of 2022 are pre-determined, and not in our favor.

    It’s because that attitude leaves out the part where WE HAVE AGENCY, the part where the future isn’t known until it’s not the future anymore, the part where we can impact what happens in a positive way

    To get the outcome we want, we have to try.  If not, then the game truly is over, and that’s not a world view I want to live in.

  77. 77.

    Mike in Pasadena

    What if Republicans were to announce their just say no to everything rule is over?

    Wow, I  am really getting into this thread.

  79. 79.

    206inKY

    Still hard to see past my nose on the tornado, but what if the forest that used to be my backyard can eventually be transformed into a meadow or maybe an orchard?

  81. 81.

    Emerald

    That statement from the White House is brutal. They’re calling him a liar. Once it  becomes known that a politician negotiates in bad faith, he’ll never negotiate with anyone again. Manchin has to walk back (or switch parties, which would lose him all his power anyway). So the ball’s in his court now.

  82. 82.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Josh Marshall on Manchin

    I’ll note that Manchin decided to make this announcement on Fox News. And according to Ryan Lizza, who would know, he didn’t even personally inform the President or Chuck Schumer of what he was about to do. He had an aide make the call. That’s just cowardly, low class.

    As I’ve said before, there’s no ideological rhyme or reason to Manchin. I don’t think the fix was always in. I don’t mean that in the sense that anyone on the other side messed up or miscalculated. You’re fundamentally dealing with someone who makes it up as he goes along. Which side of the bed did he wake up on on a given morning? His social set is made up of business and lobbyist types, a certain slice of DC insider culture. He’s responsive to them. As the President’s popularity began to dim over the summer, that was his real driver, again translated through DC insider opinion. That’s why the policy complaints and shifting rationales have been so hard to make sense of. They’re just backfill carted out to provide some rhyme or reason to justify what he’s hearing from friends, what they want to hear. Manchin is like your retired uncle arguing with the people on cable TV. Only in his case the TV responds, and reacts, and bargains with him.

    he didn’t even personally inform the President or Chuck Schumer of what he was about to do. He had an aide make the call.
    that really is a shitheel move

  83. 83.

    Matt McIrvin

    …And similar to the vaccine thing, I have an observation about climate change. Yes, there’s probably a lot of badness “locked in”. But the more people know about this specifically, the less they seem to think complete doom is inevitable. The most cynical and doomy people are general political journalists and commenters who have just started looking into the matter. You talk to someone like Michael Mann, an actual expert who actually invented the Hockey Stick graph, and he thinks lots of progress is possible.

    There’s a popular, cynical view I have heard Erik Loomis (NOT a climate-policy expert) and some friends of mine express, that because of the workings of capitalism, it is inevitable that every atom of carbon available in the Earth will be burned. And I just don’t see it. It’s not cost-effective to burn coal for energy already. I think much of the remaining coal will stay in the ground, or at least not be burned.

    One thing that’s happening a bit under the radar is that renewable energy–solar and wind–is exploding. It’s become a running joke in the industry that the national and international agencies responsible for this keep farcically underestimating solar’s future development in every year’s forecasting estimate. It kept on exploding right through the Trump administration’s attempts to stop it, which actually shocked me. There was no need for exorbitant subsidies or regulatory favors. That train kept on going.

    At some point, we run into the point where intermittency causes grid stability issues without deployment of mass storage. But the storage tech is rapidly improving too (ignore Elon Musk’s antics, it’s still happening). Also, the limit turns out to be way higher than people forecasted decades ago–the situation we’re in now should have been impossible according to the stuff people said even in the early 2000s.

    So I am actually an optimist on that to an extent that sometimes makes people mad.

  84. 84.

    WaterGirl

    @206inKY: Impressed that you are able to come up with that one just a week after the event.

    I loved my (mostly) shade garden in the back yard, with sun right around the edges of the fence.

    When the tree hit my house and property 8 years ago, my beautiful huge tree was gone, I lost all the shade on my house, lost much of my landscaping, and what remained couldn’t handle the brutal sun with no hint of shade in the back yard.

    So I moved the stuff that needed shade to the front and turned that into a beautiful round bed. The sun-loving plants I had right at the fence line LOVED all the sun and grew and spread like wildfire.

    And 3 years later I built my beautiful screened-in porch, that I had always wanted but never had room for.  But the tree had destroyed my back deck, so suddenly there was room for the porch.

    It’s a reminder that it’s good to be open to possibilities.

  85. 85.

    trollhattan

    Truly, these are strange times. Roger Stone underbusing Steve Bannon.

    December 19, 2021 at 1:20 pm EST By Taegan Goddard

    Roger Stone took to the far-right messaging platform Telegram to suggest that Steve Bannon was behind the call to “breach” the Capitol building on Jan 6, the Daily Beast reports.

    Said Stone: “It is highly likely that Bannon really gave the order to breach the Capitol and maneuvered patriots into dangerous positions. A neophyte Steve Bannon was willing to try crazy things like this to curry favor with Trump who had no interest in Bannon’s bullshit.”

  86. 86.

    brendancalling

    @WaterGirl:  oh, door number 3 is always open too. That said, these past two years “something awesome” has been harder to find. Crazy times…

  89. 89.

    Madeleine

    I find it difficult to do what-iffing about things like elections next Nov. because there just is insufficient information whether good, bad, or indifferent. And I can get really really irritable at speculation without adequate information.

    Yet I tend to be a pessimist—my excuse is that it reduces disappointment. But what I really like about pessimism is situations that turn out better than I expected. That makes me unalloyedly happy!

    Lightly edited

  90. 90.

    trollhattan

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Yes, it seems plausible to shift generation to renewables at an accelerated clip and paring that with relatively affordable on-site battery storage to help with that all-important 5-8 p.m. consumption hump. California’s electricity consumption per capita is already low compared to most states.

    Still concerned China and India want to operate under their own rules and that especially Australia is hellbent on supplying them with coal for the next half century. Not helpful, mates. We need to kill off coal generation sooner, not later.

  92. 92.

    Ella in New Mexico

    What if I was gifted the Cloak of Invisibility?

    And a couple thousand in change for travel expenses…

  93. 93.

    Mike in Pasadena

    What if Biden won in 2020 by 7 million votes and Republicans shrugged and said, “ok, Biden won.”

  94. 94.

    Matt McIrvin

    @trollhattan: Oh, yeah, that’s the other thing: up until 2008, it seemed as if economic growth and energy consumption in the US were inextricably linked. The 2008 recession seemed to cut off the growth… but then it never picked up again in the recovery. It’s been basically flat. Some kind of decoupling is happening.

    Now, there’s an obvious rejoinder, which is that we just outsourced all of that dirty energy consumption to China or wherever our manufacturing is happening. But that didn’t suddenly happen in 2008. So there’s more going on than just that.

  95. 95.

    mrmoshpotato

    @Madeleine:

    I find it difficult to do what-iffing about things like elections next Nov. because there just is insufficient information whether good, bad, or indifferent. And I can get really really irritable at speculation without adequate information. 

    Same.

  96. 96.

    debbie

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    If Josh were here, I’d point him to my comment in the COVID thread:

    Goddamn NPR, leading off with an interview with a physician from rural Missouri about our current predicament being Joe Biden’s fault because of his mandates. If only we hadn’t made them do it! They might have done it on their own! Assholes acting like mandates came first! Mandates came only after people refused to listen and take precautions. They came only after people threw maskless hissy fits in stores and spit on each other.

    Seek out that clip and then tell me the fix was never in.

  97. 97.

    mrmoshpotato

    @Ella in New Mexico:

    What if I was gifted the Cloak of Invisibility?

    And a couple thousand in change for travel expenses…

    Would it make you invisible to COVID?

    And just a couple thousand in travel money? ?

  98. 98.

    gene108

    @WaterGirl:

    You don’t see value in acknowledging the What Ifs in both directions, even as you personally prefer to prepare for the worst?

    You don’t see value in acknowledging that

    Things may turnout better than expected, but I find that’s not how things usually go. I don’t go into a “what if” scenario over every damn little thing. Somethings I’m pretty confident will work out, otherwise I’d drown in fear. But when I enter a “what if” scenario, the odds things workout are in doubt, and expecting them to not break in my favor has been a general trend, in my experience.

    it’s less painful to conclude that it’s going to be a disaster, because they just can’t bear the “we just do not know” part.

    There’s also the bit of unexpected happiness that comes from something working out in my favor.

  99. 99.

    trollhattan

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Are there any reliable data on power consumption from lighting? LED tech can legit cut consumption 90% versus incandescent/halogen, and maybe 50% or more from fluorescent.

    Most big box stores I go to now have skylights and automated lighting, as another example.

    Heck, our new electric clothes dryer is 1,000 watts versus 3,600 for the one it replaced.

  101. 101.

    trollhattan

    @debbie: ​
    The good old “stop hitting yourself” ploy.

    If only Joe Biden would play 11-D chess with the rubes, the rubes would do the right thing their ownselves, while retaining the veneer of Freedom®™

  104. 104.

    gene108

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    People are definitely wired differently. After a certain point, it’s not possible to really undo the wiring. The intensity can be moderated with effort, but the basic default mode is set.

  106. 106.

    opiejeanne

    @WaterGirl: I already know the good “what ifs”, but I’m superstitious and feel that I need to acknowledge the worst “what ifs” so that they don’t happen. Has worked every time, so far (must not tempt fate).

    I don’t fret about them, but I can sometimes see a plan to avoid them if things go sideways.

    (I could not sleep Friday night because my 52 yo son was driving straight through from LA to Portland, OR, and had started his journey after 6pm. I guess he was too eager to be with his fiancé to wait until Saturday morning. He did get in at 10:30am yesterday, exhausted. I’m going to chew on him a bit about this when I see him on Friday, but I spent a good deal of time checking the weather conditions in the passes between Sacramento and Portland: surprisingly clear through the worst areas.)

  108. 108.

    zhena gogolia

    @m.j.: Watching Get Back and overwhelmed by the love of those men as expressed in their music making. I’ve always loved Two of Us but thought of it as  boy-girl love song now I see it’s about John and Paul.

  111. 111.

    Kristine

    @Matt McIrvin:

    So I am actually an optimist on that to an extent that sometimes makes people mad.

    This whole post really made me feel better, esp after the Manchin’s pencildick move. Because there are Eeyores and Marvins everywhere and somehow they find one another and before you know it the misery chain reaction just takes off.

  112. 112.

    Redshift

    @Matt McIrvin: Are you also a listener/reader of David Roberts’ Voltscast? He had a great interview recently about how technological shifts happen, and how major renewable technologies are past the will it/won’t it point and close to the point of “things suddenly start switching faster than anyone anticipates.”

    For climate change, I’m more optimistic about economics as a force. The idea that capitalism will force all fossil fuels to be burned seems nonsensical, once the infrastructure is there, why would capitalism favor a technology with ongoing fuel costs over one with essentially zero?

    It’s still the case that even with an inevitable transition, good policy would still speed things up and there are bad climate effects we’ll suffer completely unnecessarily without them, so that sucks. But I’m cautiously less doom-and-gloom.

  114. 114.

    Geminid

    @206inKY:  Crimson clover makes a nice cover crop. It’s an annual, very pretty, and adds nitrogen to the soil. Costs about $12 for 3 pounds at an ag store.

  116. 116.

    Geminid

    @Matt McIrvin: The nation’s electrical grid certainly needs to be upgraded. Funding for this was one of the clean energy provisions in the much-maligned Infrastructure bill. Others include money for electric school buses, charging stations, mass transit,* and $60 billion for passenger rail. The head of Amtrac said this was more than has been invested in the system since its inception.

    *New York City’s MTA will get $10 billion for it’s subway and bus systems. Some of this will be spent on electric buses. Their lifecycle costs are less than that of diesel or natural gas powered, so New Yorkers will save money and breath easier.

  118. 118.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Geminid: Oh, yeah, and: Offshore wind is happening! That was hung up for decades by moneybags NIMBY opposition in the US. It was bipartisan–the Kennedys alone…

    There’s colossal untapped potential there.

  119. 119.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Redshift: There’s been so much bad, destructive techno-utopianism over the past couple of decades that it’s tempting to swing in the opposite direction and insist that new technology can never accomplish anything good. (Something similar happened in the 1960s and ’70s counterculture.) But it really has to be judged on a case-by-case basis.

  123. 123.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Redshift: I still hear often people going on about energy in ways that make me think their brains are stuck in 1979, when renewables (other than hydro) were so capitally expensive per watt that any project you saw was really an experiment or for show. Intuitively, they think that’s still the case.

    The big challenge will be getting off natural gas, which is much better than coal but not actually good. Nuclear power may play a continued role, I’m not actually opposed to it and it might end up a necessary part of a decarbonized mix, but aside from all the political issues, it’s economically unattractive to build new plants at the moment (and sometimes it seems like nuclear advocates are their own worst enemy, but that’s a story for another time–Cheryl Rofer has posted about it here).

  124. 124.

    Geminid

    @Matt McIrvin: Incandescent bulbs were so wasteful that traffic lights in the north didn’t use to need help melting snow. Now, LED traffic lights need defrosting systems in the wintertime, but they are still more efficient overall.

  125. 125.

    Barry

    starting small:

    What if the American people are on average so sickened by the criminality and incompetence of the Republican party that we gain seats in the House and net at least three good Senators in 2022?

  126. 126.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Geminid: I basically don’t have to worry about Christmas tree lights starting a fire any more.

    One odd side effect of various systems getting more energy-efficient is that you can’t treat them as having an incidental built-in furnace. Conventional cars have an effectively unlimited source of heat for the passenger compartment while they’re running; electric cars need a dedicated heat pump for that purpose because they’re not spewing titanic amounts of waste energy as heat.

  127. 127.

    Geminid

    @Matt McIrvin: Air conditioning will require battery power too. I caught a car mechanic show one Sunday where the host was talking about potential problems with electric vehicles. He brought up the scenario of people jammed up getting through the Holland tunnel in July. The guy is not against electric cars in principal, but is a sceptic. Electric vehicles will be phased in over this decade and the next, though, and I think these problems will be dealt with.

    One thing that will happen  relatively quickly is electrified delivery fleets. UPS, Amazon, Fed-Ex and the USPS are going electric in the short and medium term. UPS will still have gas or diesel powered vans for longer routes, but they will be hybrids. The nation’s school bus fleet will transition similarly, and the cleaner air for school kids breath will be an extra incentive.

  128. 128.

    lowtechcyclist

    @The Thin Black Duke:

    This guy thinks that as long as the GOP is the pro-Covid party, they’re going to be fucked in ’22.

    That’s the wild card in the deck.

    I think he’s possibly right, but I think it requires the Democratic Party mobilizing and focusing the anger of the 2/3 of Americans that are doing the right things about Covid, at the 1/3 who are keeping us in Covid Hell by refusing to get vaxxed, opposing mask mandates, and all that.

    The Democrats really aren’t good at that sort of thing.  And there are reasons for it: if you’re trying to make America better by creating and building good government programs, which is the Dems’ game for the most part, getting mad as hell rarely gets you there.

    But this is a time for it, and they’d better learn fast.

    ETA: Negative partisanship – it’s not just for the ‘out’ party anymore.

  129. 129.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Geminid: Electric cars are another area where I feel like the situation we have now is one that you’d have heard was impossible 20 years ago. They were these joke vehicles, golf carts, would never even be really driveable on American highways, and the irredeemable badness of battery tech was the reason. Now… we’ve got electric muscle cars.

    My own situation is such that I went with a hybrid instead of an electric for my latest. But hybrids are the kind of thing that’s obviously a transitional technology. They’ll be mostly gone along with the other petroleum-powered cars in a couple of decades. I do believe that

    There’s also a certain amount of perfect-as-enemy-of-the-good grumbling, that electric cars are evil because they are still cars, and not a complete restructuring of society and land use around transit-centric development. All I can say is, I don’t think the existence of electric cars is the problem there. Better transit would be awesome too; the US sorely needs it.

  130. 130.

    206inKY

    @Geminid: Interesting! Thanks so much! I’m on a hill and definitely need to plant a cover crop to prevent too much soil erosion while I figure out what to do back there to replace the trees.

  131. 131.

    Geminid

    @206inKY: Annual rye grass also makes a good cover crop. It pops up fast, and is often planted with slower perrenial grasses to hold the soil while slower varieties sprout.

Comments are closed.