Cancelled my Christmas party this weekend at the last minute out of an abundance of caution.
At least one would-be guest has tested positive today. One superspreader event avoided.
Sharing because it can feel like your actions don’t matter. But they do.
— Geoffrey Hall (@gjhall) December 19, 2021
Texas' Harris County records first US death linked to Omicron variant
The man, aged between 50-60 years old, was at higher risk of severe complications from COVID-19 as he was unvaccinated, the health department said in a statement.https://t.co/YZ7wEc1WWv
— Heather Timmons (@HeathaT) December 21, 2021
Saw friend, a frontline hospital doc.
Me: “Are you ok?”
Her: (bursts into tears)She said she’s seeing lots more younger/unvaxxed people now, and if an unvaccinated person gets bad enough that they have to go on a vent, mortality is 95%.
We are failing ourselves & our helpers.
— Jessica Shortall???? (@jessicashortall) December 19, 2021
If I or a loved one is in the hospital for any reason, I would want this friend – thoughtful, empathetic, smart – caring for me. But the incredible weight of the pandemic on healthcare workers – a weight driven by antivax evil – is going to force a lot of them out.
— Jessica Shortall???? (@jessicashortall) December 19, 2021
BREAKING: Omicron is now most common coronavirus variant in U.S., accounting for nearly three-quarters of COVID-19 cases, CDC says. https://t.co/HkpbuaGcNk
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 20, 2021
Wondering how much Covid activity is being caused by #Omicron in your region? My colleague @jaspar produced this handy map.
There's never a good time to need urgent care. But if you live in a dark green area, it's a very bad time. Be careful. https://t.co/gXE8eKNF6c pic.twitter.com/O8DMQJBsIz— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) December 21, 2021
Air travel has essentially returned to pre-pandemic levels but COVID-19, particularly the omicron variant, continues to pose a major public health threat. We’re urging the CDC and FAA to start requiring proof of vaccination or a negative test for all domestic flights. pic.twitter.com/nZIg6P6BbE
— Senator Dianne Feinstein (@SenFeinstein) December 20, 2021
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"An event cancelled is better than a life cancelled"
WHO urges cancelling some holiday events over Omicron fears https://t.co/AZ4aK1iIk2
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) December 21, 2021
AP Explainer: What the spread of the omicron virus variant will mean for the world remains unclear. Here’s the latest on what’s known and what's still unknown about omicron. https://t.co/QJ5g2qHSEa
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 20, 2021
India reports 200 Omicron cases across 12 states https://t.co/PodqeIFe33 pic.twitter.com/nwZ06hUnKu
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 21, 2021
South Korea reimposed curfews to curb the spread of COVID-19. But for small business owners, the new restrictions have brought fears of economic disaster https://t.co/iFU5SVbarM pic.twitter.com/Yk7PCuqyE2
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 21, 2021
Thailand reinstates mandatory COVID-19 quarantine, scraps waiver programme https://t.co/sCRiZrgHCG pic.twitter.com/rUykzhDubw
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 21, 2021
Singapore finds suspected Omicron COVID-19 cluster in gym https://t.co/XfF8rzLRpW pic.twitter.com/ZyfcSpguhn
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 21, 2021
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has ruled out lockdowns even as COVID-19 cases have been breaking infection records in the country, and insisted that limiting the spread of the virus comes down to personal responsibility https://t.co/STcSLA6wK2 pic.twitter.com/v6GBpc7IfM
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 21, 2021
New Zealand’s COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins announced that the country had postponed its phased border re-opening plans until the end of February over concerns of the rapid global spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus https://t.co/IbprRDaRun pic.twitter.com/yb0yfJDr0R
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 21, 2021
Kuwait to make COVID-19 vaccine booster compulsory for incoming travellers https://t.co/zXN0MwUKPM pic.twitter.com/VzpzsM0S0K
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 21, 2021
Russia on Tuesday confirmed 25,907 Covid-19 infections and 1,027 deathshttps://t.co/IVOZNsKEVk
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) December 21, 2021
Austria is reporting a two-month low in coronavirus infections as the last few regions reopened restaurants and hotels after a 20-day national lockdown. Restrictions remain in place for those not vaccinated or recently recovered from the virus. https://t.co/Ph9uOcMCii
— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) December 20, 2021
Hopeful news. https://t.co/B8AOA9ciV5
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) December 20, 2021
Cuba soars to near top of COVID vaccination charts on decades-old bet https://t.co/ax8zHyICxj pic.twitter.com/aY1Hcgwwnc
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 21, 2021
Canada foreign minister tests positive for COVID-19, Quebec shuts bars, gyms https://t.co/ewi00AYwu1 pic.twitter.com/Yn7SJOClTh
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 21, 2021
======
I've worked on infectious disease outbreaks for 30 years. I've NEVER seen anything like the speed of Omicron. It's as infectious as measles spreading in a non-immune population, with a much shorter incubation time therefore much faster doubling time. Hope it's a lot less severe. pic.twitter.com/EtLfa4JKqd
— Dr. Tom Frieden (@DrTomFrieden) December 21, 2021
South Africa continues to lead in figuring out #Omicron. Testing a theory that immunity acquired in the Beta wave the country experienced previously may be mitigating the damage of Omicron. Let's hope that's not the case; Beta didn't circulate much globally. https://t.co/vDzQPSKCZV
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) December 20, 2021
Latest CDC data by vaccine status:
Unvaccinated: 451 cases per 100k
Vaccinated: 134 cases per 100k
Boosted: 48 cases per 100kUnvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100k
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100k
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100k— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) December 20, 2021
Thread from a Stanford infectious disease doctor:
I still don’t think people understand how well the vaccines *really* work. So let me try to explain.
I spend most of my time treating patients admitted to the hospital with various infections. My colleagues & I are called to see nearly every hospitalized covid patient.?
— Jake Scott, MD (@jakescottMD) December 20, 2021
…medical conditions and their post-vax covid triggered a flare up of their underlying lung or heart disease, or something else – but not the typical very intense acute respiratory failure covid can cause. 3/
— Jake Scott, MD (@jakescottMD) December 20, 2021
I haven’t seen an uptick in severe covid among vaccinated patients due to “waning immunity,” which really mainly applies to contracting antibody levels and consequent increased risk of asymptomatic/mild infection.
These vaccines honestly work extremely well.
5/— Jake Scott, MD (@jakescottMD) December 20, 2021
======
NYC surpassed its pandemic record for average daily cases on Friday…
…which we're only learning about today because its data is reported on a lag.
Hospitalizations are still low, despite the surge starting nearly two months ago. https://t.co/dcZ6dohjke pic.twitter.com/tNCTMV5OAy
— Nsikan Akpan, PhD (@MoNscience) December 20, 2021
At least 132 employees at SpaceX’s Southern California headquarters tested positive for Covid, according to information posted on a Los Angeles County website. It was the highest number of cases currently reported among private companies in the county. https://t.co/vtwQPxIBbc
— The New York Times (@nytimes) December 21, 2021
AP Source: Several asymptomatic, vaccinated NFL players tested positive for COVID-19 on Monday, the first day of “targeted” testing. Overall, 43 players were placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, the most in a single day since the pandemic began.https://t.co/hge67rF9Xa
— AP NFL (@AP_NFL) December 20, 2021
hit hard w/ positive cases, NFL decides to test less … so players won’t test positive and miss games
— Eric Boehlert (@EricBoehlert) December 21, 2021
Nobody should be denied healthcare. But people should be aware and considerate of the burden they are potentially placing on society by their “private” decisions. https://t.co/l3m8ICWFq5
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) December 20, 2021
The NRA's latest ad features a border agent who refuses to get vaccinated warning "every state will become a border state with illegal immigrants committing violent crimes" if the border isn't secured. https://t.co/T8e7rY28am
— Stephen Gutowski (@StephenGutowski) December 20, 2021
LongHairedWeirdo
That first tweet… I’ve been getting some college nostalgia and college was where I developed a love of CS Lewis. His concept of Christianity was one of “universal responsibility”… in some tiny way, we’re all called upon to be good people, as best as we can, in *all* things. Because in some tiny way, our own dislikes and indifference contribute to a world far more imperfect than it needs to be.
Let me tell you, there are times when I think of the US “Christian” bloc, and all I can think of is, I’m glad that poor man is dead, and doesn’t see what they’ve done to a concept that can be wonderful and noble.
Baud
I continue to not understand the impulse for collective responsibility that shields bad actors from accountability.
If it were Democrats causing damage to the country, there would be no “we.”
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
There were 283 new laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 on 12/20. There were 53 new positive home tests reported on 12/20. There were 3131 new cases reported since Monday, December 13, 2021.
124 individuals are hospitalized for COVID-19 in Monroe County, 79% of them are unvaxxed.
Deaths: The total is 1550 to date, up 21 from last week.
Only 68.3% of the eligible Monroe County residents are vaccinated. We seem to have stalled out on the vaccination front.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 3,140 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 2,724,684 cases. It also reports 43 deaths as of midnight, for an adjusted cumulative total of 31,135 deaths – 1.14% of the cumulative reported total, 1.16% of resolved cases.
Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 0.91.
275 confirmed cases are in ICU, 125 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 4,278 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,642,469 patients recovered – 97.0% of the cumulative reported total.
Four new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 6,086 clusters. 247 clusters are currently active; 5,839 clusters are now inactive.
3,082 new cases today are local infections. 58 new cases today are imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 145,004 doses of vaccine on 20th December: 3,241 first doses, 4,325 second doses, and 137,438 booster doses. As of midnight, the cumulative total is 56,034,257 doses administered: 25,957,963 first doses, 25,554,597 second doses, and 4,717,084 booster doses. 79.5% of the population have received their first dose, 78.3% their second dose, and 14.4% their booster dose.
Argiope
My kid is an Oberlin student. In 48 hours they’ve gone from business as usual (indoor masking required) to remote class options (hybrid model) for January and universal testing to return to campus to, as of late last night, all remote classes for the last three days before break. President’s email reports 50 active cases, the highest number ever on a campus that formerly saw a handful of cases in several months.
debbie
My county* received 16,000 test kits to be distributed through the library system. They ran out in less than an hour.
(* Franklin County, Ohio)
Nicole
Anecdotal, of course, but I’m up to 7 friends, 5 in NYC, 2 in NM, with breakthrough cases. They’ve all had mild symptoms, if any at all. Vaccines, working as intended to keep people out of the hospital.
LongHairedWeirdo
@Baud: Well… that’s my thoughts on “universal responsibility” in a nutshell.
I act out of love, and I feel I’m failing, in some degree, because there are caregivers who need more support than they are getting. Now, I have ME/CFS, and thus, have the *perfect* excuse for inaction – I literally *can’t* do much. But I’d still rather feel a buzz of pain, that makes me think “how can I help?” often enough that if I *can* help, it’s the coolest thing in the universe.
Even though I know there are bad – horrible! – actors, there’s just that hint of “if I could do more, and it would make people’s lives better, I would! What can I do?”
That said, I really do get frustration at folks who won’t condemn the bad actors.
NorthLeft12
@Baud: Yes, this is really pissing me off too. I am normally a very empathetic person, but the vast majority of the unvaxxed adults are that way by choice and are actively ignoring all the data and science and do not give a shit about other people, including close family, friends, and co-workers.
These selfish ignoramuses need to be shunned and publicly ridiculed. Maybe that strategy would work?
eclare
@debbie:
I am so glad that I bought two boxes of the Binax tests before anyone had heard of Omicron.
Cermet
Tragic – plague rats are spreading the virus to the uninfected and killing themselves – really does put the dumb in free-dumb. That the orange pile can’t even get them to vaccinate the obvious reason is – racism; seriously, these extreme white christian have only one unifying issue – fear of blacks/browns. And that is what made them form this tribe in the first place. Now that anti-vax is the mantra of that crowd it isn’t much to realize that at its core is racism. This is tragic because these deaths are terrible but each ant-vax loss isn’t just a Rump supporter lost but a racist at heart lost. The only good (and this is pushing that point to extreme’s) is that the country will be a tiny bit less racist for awhile.
NotMax
Changing your Christmas visitation plans due to COVID? You’re in royal company.
;)
eclare
@NorthLeft12: That and limit where they can go without being vaxxed: restaurants, movie theaters, gyms. I’d try liquor stores, see if that moves the needle (I think it would).
But oh the wailing about Freedumb would damage everyone’s ears!
The Thin Black Duke
@Cermet: “Your offer is acceptable.”
eclare
@NotMax: Saw that. Setting a much better example than BoJo has so far.
NorthLeft12
On a personal note, we are proceeding with our Christmas Eve celebration plans, just with a much smaller, fully vaxxed group (five of the group are boosted too), open windows, and everyone rapid tested that morning.
I live in Canada so it might get a little cool in the house……although Christmas Eve is going to be on the warm side (above freezing).
New Deal democrat
The US averaged 140,000 cases yesterday, nearly a 10,000 increase in just one day. Regionally only the West has not begun to rise significantly, although the epicenter of the outbreak remains the Northeast.
States with big increases include HI, DC, IL, OH, NY, NJ, and RI. Both NY and NJ recorded new all time highs for cases yesterday. OH, RI, and IL will likely do the same within a few days.
Also substantial increases in GA, LA, and DE [ETA: also MA]. MD is still not reporting.
In South Africa, cases have declined again, but deaths have now tripled from their bottom. Several provinces in Canada, most notably Quebec, are now going vertical, and nationwide cases have soared. Same with the UK, although deaths there have continued to decline.
Meanwhile, via Eric Topol:
https://mobile.twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1473062733562236939
“CDC now estimates omicron makes up 73% of #covid19 cases in the US, with prevalence exceeding 90% in some regions, per update just now on its variant tracker”
The only region where it isn’t a majority is the central plains.
Some “Good news from London, an Omicron epicenter,” also per Eric Topol:
https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1473000378966806531
the pattern in London has followed South Africa: *growth* in Omicron cases has stopped:
“there is some evidence that people are cutting back on activities, which effect would be on top of people isolating through illness.”
In general, the apparent “good” (less horrific?) news is that Omicron appears to behave like super-Delta, burning through the dry tinder in 30 to 40 days. The bad news is the sharp rise in deaths that has started in South Africa.
Steeplejack (phone)
A little salt for that “can’t find a test” wound.
Anne Laurie
Boston’s new mayor, Michelle Wu, just declared bars, restaurants, museums, libraries, &etc off-limits except to those with proof of vaccination. A small mob of anti-vaxxers — most of them, apparently, not actually Boston residents — showed up at City Hall to disrupt her announcement of the new measures. As some on social media pointed out afterwards, keeping non-local potential disease-spreaders out of the city was very much one goal of the whole exercise!
lowtechcyclist
How many Americans were killed by “illegal immigrants” in the past two years?
How many Americans were killed by Covid-19?
One of these numbers is orders of magnitude larger than the other.
Kay
My only quibble with the theme of “sacrifice for the good of the collective” is that isolating from family and friends is more of a sacrifice for children and young adults, because they only have X number of years as children or young adults.
Not socializing between the ages of 17 and 20 (or 7 and 10) is much more of a sacrifice with much more profound implications than not socializing between the ages of 42 and 45, or 62 and 65. Young people have a window and it’s open and then it’s closed because they’re then older and (essentially) different, older people with different priorities and different duties and expectations.
I think we should have drawn a stronger distinction at the outset. You really can’t ask a 19 year not to socialize for 3 years. It’s too big a sacrifice. They can’t then make that up from 21 to 23. It’s just gone.
Ramiah Ariya
I wrote this for my Indian friends in FB:
In the US, top doctors are gently asking that people get together in lesser numbers for the Christmas, which is a festival that happens yearly.
Their CDC is advising about how many vaccinated people can come together indoors.
Even though as of now little evidence exists to show that vaccinated folks have a better chance with Omicron, in the US, they are using it as an excuse to ask people to get vaccinated more.
My mind goes back to April of this year, when sneering articles and comments were written in the US press, particularly among American liberals about the Hindu festival of Kumbh Mela.
That festival happens once in twelve years. It was allowed to go on in March, when the numbers were low across India; It is a life-blood to millions of poor people in UP, giving a boost to their economy; and it was stopped as soon as the Delta wave hit us.
The contempt the Americans showed for us in our moment of need should never be forgotten.
Nor should we forgive the domestic Indian opposition which tried to portray allowing the pilgrimage, as that of Covid-denial and the govt giving into some weird Hindu fundamentalism.
Mousebumples
2 testing things –
Stay healthy and safe this holiday season, everyone. No matter what your plans. ?
Suzanne
@Kay: Agreed. The adults can skip the office but children and adolescents need their family and friends (and school) and all of our public policy should be around creating that for them.
Spawn the Elder turned 18 last Thursday, and he flew from AZ out here to PA on Saturday. Didn’t have time/his dad didn’t have his shit together enough to get him a booster before he flew, so I was nervous. But he’s here now, and it’s great. I have his booster scheduled for next Monday, which was the first Moderna booster I could find (mix and match!).
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@Steeplejack (phone): Can confirm: self-tests in Athens are €4.50 a pop. For what you pay for one test in the US, you can get five in Greece.
New Deal democrat
@Mousebumples: “Biden will apparently announce a federal website to order free tests at the speech today. Also using the Defense Production Act to work on making more.”
Great news! Now address limited supply of N95 masks, and a vaccine mandate for interstate public travel.
A couple of other notes I failed to mention above. The CDC has made a number of bad errors in this epidemic, so I am taking their 73% number with a grain of salt until if and when it is verified by Trevor Bedford, whose trendlines put us closer to about 33% Omicron today.
That makes an important difference in terms of what has happened with Delta. If over 2/3’s of 130-140,000 cases are Omicron, then Delta has been knocked back to 40,000 cases or so. If Omicron is only 1/3 now, then Delta is still infecting 80,000 people a day. The former is far more preferable to the latter.
One other thing is really troubling me in Trevor Bedford’s graphs: the mysterious rise in (an) unspecified “other” variant(s) in the past several weeks. In South Africa, “other” is rising even faster than a Omicron did, and is now about 10% of all cases. A similar pattern has begun to develop in Germany and the U.K. I haven’t read any expert addressing this anomaly.
cleek
i went to my first real party last Saturday – wife’s company’s xmas party. all adults were vaxxed and nobody got COVID! but many of us were hit with a nasty head cold by Tuesday – and we all did at-home COVID tests, to be sure it was just a cold.
and that’s the last time i’ll ever say “Yeah, sure.” when my wife tries to get me to go to a party.
JMG
When my parents were alive, my family would visit them from December 26 to New Year’s at their home in Florida. And every January, without fail, all of us would get colds, sometimes bad ones. This is the peak time of year for respiratory ailments of all kinds, and was before covid existed. This is why testing is so great and important. Knowing the reason you feel bad isn’t covid makes you feel much better.
Rusty
@Kay: This is well put. I know a surprising number of college age, and just post college age that have really struggled this past year. Several have needed serious mental health interventions, a couple of others are in rehab. The isolation that is difficult at older ages has been devastating at younger. Our middle schooler has decided to quit the sport he excels at to take up another just because his friends are there and he needs the contact. I know I seriously underestimated how hard this would be on our young people. Thank you for putting it so well.
Anyway
@Ramiah Ariya:
Apples and oranges, no? Christmas gatherings are among family, neighbors in many multiple locations – and there’s a good chance of knowing everyone’s vaccination status. Kumbh Mela (from what i understand) was millions of people travelling from all over the country on trains and buses to one specific site and gathering there in the millions.
There’s no millions of people gathering in one site for Christmas. Maybe a few tens of thousands at Times Sq NYE.
Soprano2
You wouldn’t be able to do that where I live, because all the businesses would go out of business! It’s a good idea, but only practical where the vast majority of adults are vaccinated. To repeat, in my state the government is actively trying to get all other governmental entities to stop ALL COVID MITIGATION ACTIONS. And no, it wouldn’t make most of them get vaccinated, I think only the loss of employment will motivate some of these people. Even the deaths of two close relatives hasen’t motivated one of our regular customers!
LiminalOwl
@LongHairedWeirdo: Seconding! I’m not a Christian, but a big CSL fan. And omg, wouldn’t he be horrified by those who take his name in vain these days.
Soprano2
@Kay: Boy, that’s the truth! Those are the years when you’re meeting new people and making friendships, even meeting your future spouse. Once you get into your middle 20’s and away from any school, it becomes a lot harder to do that. I never thought of it that way before.
Soprano2
@Mousebumples: I hope that website is ready for the traffic!
Soprano2
I was wondering how they can even say this. How much testing are they doing across the country? We have counties here who have stopped ALL Covid reporting under threat from the state government!
dmsilev
@Argiope: We managed to finish out the quarter and get the undergrads off on winter break without having to do anything drastic. Yesterday, a “prepare for the possibility” of remote instruction email went out, but so far we’re planning on having the students back in person in early January. “Booster shots will be mandated” was announced Friday; deadline is in about a month, but a large fraction of campus is already there.
Soprano2
The head of one of our local hospitals was on the radio this morning. He said they have lost 19 patients to Covid in the last week! That’s only in his hospital; it doesn’t include any deaths at Mercy, the other large hospital here. This, after having only 3 Covid deaths in October and 1 in November. It’s so tragic, those deaths shouldn’t be happening!
Guac
My husband is doing a rapid test today because he was exposed to a guy with covid on Saturday. They were playing golf together, so entirely outdoors, and everyone is triple-vaxxed, so I’m optimistic about a negative result.
The guy with covid just arrived on Friday to visit his parents (who are our friends/neighbors). Did he test before seeing his family? Nope.
Another Scott
I think Scott’s Twitter thread is very important and well done. Infection is not the same as illness. Rising infection is bad because it will find the unvaccinated.
It’s disturbing that so much of the reporting and commentary on the pandemic still cannot get the nuance right. Vaccination and boosters and masking and distancing all still work – even with Omicron. Covid is still deadly serious for the unvaccinated. The virus still spreads via asymptomatic people.
Omicron is not something that we can’t handle. We need to keep doing the sensible public health measures that we’ve known for more than a year…
(sigh)
Stay safe, everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
lowtechcyclist
@NorthLeft12:
I’ve come back to the belief that the unvaxxed with Covid should be handled differently by our health system.
Why? Because they’re breaking it, and it’s essential that we keep that from happening. That’s the key distinction here.
And that distinction is my answer to the whole “if you start treating people differently due to their bad health choices, where do you stop? Are you going to deny health care to obese people?”
No, we’re not, because obese people aren’t breaking our health care system. The unvaxxed are. Not only is Covid itself a national fucking emergency, but so is the overload it’s putting on our health care system. Still, nearly two years in.
And that’s almost entirely because of unvaxxed people with Covid. Take them out of the picture, and we’re OK.
You do things differently in responding to a national emergency. You do what you need to do.
I don’t think we should just throw them out on the street. But my suggestion (not knowing whether this is even logistically feasible) is to have the Army, National Guard, etc. set up regional field hospitals that will take all the unvaxxed Covid cases that the civilian hospitals that initially treat them expect that they’ll have to be hospitalized for at least a week.
(One of the big problems with the Covid cases is that many of them take up an ICU bed for several weeks, rather than a few days as is the case for non-Covid cases. As a result, one Covid case can deny care to several non-Covid cases.)
Under this scenario, the unvaxxed Covid cases would be cared for, but at a somewhat lower standard of care. And the civilian hospitals would be better able to handle everything else: non-Covid cases, vaxxed Covid cases, and even unvaxxed Covid cases that they expect to be short-term in the ICU. And we’d probably see less burnout during this second winter of the plague.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Is it the infection is spreading that fast or is it the testing for Omicron becoming more widespread?
Robert Sneddon
Scotland — the number of new cases remains high, over 5,200. There were 9 deaths within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test reported, still not that high compared to the September peak, test positivity rate remains about 15%.
The push to get booster shits into arms continues apace, another 69,000 doses were administered yesterday taking the third-dose/booster total for 18+ adults in Scotland to 59%. More mass vaccination centres are being set up in Glasgow and Edinburgh since the existing sites are maxed out with people complaining about long waits of four hours and more at locations such as pharmacies and community centres. There’s still no significant increase in unvaccinated individuals coming forward for their first or second injections, with only 80% of 16-29 year olds having received their first shot.
Another Scott
@lowtechcyclist: The reports out of SA indicated that Omicron illnesses do not last as long as Delta, and don’t require oxygen or vents except rarely. Yes, SA is different, but it may be the case that even if we have 200,000 infections a day that the system will find a way to handle it (e.g. tents and DoD personnel again).
We’re going to find out… :-(
Cheers,
Scott.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
They do remind of me a bad boss who is unable to control a rebelling employee, to cowardly to fire them and so blames the rest of his staff for not covering for their coworker.
Feathers
I am pretty fed up with the “but we can’t deny healthcare for any reason” crowd right now. It’s a fucking pandemic. The rules are changed. We have a large and powerful group of people who have for their own twisted and evil reasons decided to prevent the public health apparatus from effectively responding to the crisis.
The reaction I’m seeing is largely from disability advocates, who see themselves (rightly) as being the first to be set aside when medical rationing occurs. However, their current attitude plays into the hands of their worst enemies, because the old school anti-vaxxers and the GQP hate the disabled and blame them for not being “healthy.” So they are essentially prioritizing these hateful bigots over the vaccinated who have ongoing health problems (or breakthrough Covid). One of the real issues seems to be that once an unvaccinated person is on a ventilator, they only have a 5% chance of survival, but it is a long slow death, taking up enormous resources and human effort.
I’ve thought since the beginning that once the system becomes overwhelmed by Covid, there should be a hospital in each region remaining open for non Covid patients, not treating Covid at all, turning away anyone who tests positive. I know this seems monstrous to the current ethical mindset, but that mindset doesn’t take into account active sabotage by the morally deficient.
ETA and I just saw lowtechcyclist said much the same more coherently upstairs. The real issue is the current system is seeing the irresponsible as more worthy than the virtuous. Bad.
New Deal democrat
@Soprano2:
I believe a certain number of laboratory blood tests are randomly selected daily for COVID testing by the CDC. I believe that is where the information comes from.
I am not sure how that squares with Trevor Bedford’s (and other experts’) notes that reliable serotonin isn’t available for 12 days.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Cermet: It isn’t just racism, there is also a huge religious component with Millennialism (as in “Left Behind” nonsense, not the generation” ) – these diseases are “tribulations” from god to punish the wicked. Therefor to attempt to control the disease is to defy God’s will and therefor evil, thus all the Facci bashing. Add in Young Earth Creationism – evolution is lie in these people’s beliefs so all diseases are man made.
On the other hand according to Boccaccio during the Black Plague people only resorted to whipping themselves threw the streets after the doctors failed them. So in the Information Age we have people acting more superstitious than in The Age of Faith.
Robert Sneddon
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: The Scottish First Minister has just announced that 65% of all new COVID-19 cases in Scotland are from the Omicron variant according the missing S-gene marker in PCR tests. That’s up from 27% last week. The R (replication rate) figure for Omicron is “well over 3”. Right now the hospitals and health services are not under serious pressure but this is not guaranteed going forward. A number of public services such as rail travel are already being hit by staff outages as people become sick or are isolating after being exposed to someone with a positive COVID-19 test.
New rules are coming in after Xmas regarding large sporting events with no spectators allowed and the Hogamanay street party in Edinburgh has been cancelled (est. attendance 30,000). These new restrictions will be reviewed in three weeks time after the holiday season is over and the bodies swept up.
New Deal democrat
@Feathers:
“I’ve thought since the beginning that once the system becomes overwhelmed by Covid, there should be a hospital in each region remaining open for non Covid patients, not treating Covid at all, turning away anyone who tests positive. I know this seems monstrous to the current ethical mindset, but that mindset doesn’t take into account active sabotage by the morally deficient.”
Not to mention the permanent attrition the purposefully unvaccinated create by causing medical professionals to leave the practice entirely, see, e.g., this story:
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2021/12/america-gone-mad
Another Scott
@Soprano2: Helen Branswell’s story at STATNews shows a graph that is the source of the 73% number. It’s a sensible extrapolation from measured data (from days ago) and the known rate of growth. It’s done that way because it’s increasing so fast and because the real data always lags.
HTH!
Cheers,
Scott.
Michael Cain
Omicron running wild. Just under three million people projected to pass through Denver International Airport between yesterday and Jan 3. Masks or no, we are so screwed.
lowtechcyclist
We are. I’m just worried that this winter’s spike is going to be the last straw for a lot more health care workers than have thrown in the towel so far. Even during last year’s horrible third wave, they could tell themselves that vaccines were on the way, and once they got through that wave, the worst would be over at last.
What can they tell themselves now?
Thor Heyerdahl
I got my booster in Toronto on Monday when boosters were available to those under 50.
What a gong show that Doug Ford has created. I called pharmacies last week to try to get in, and they told me I couldn’t come in since I was under 50, but if you called Monday, many pharmacies said they’re now out of doses.
Ontario’s rapid test situation is so haphazard – the province has stocks that the federal government ordered but were saying that they were going to be sold by drug stores (a major chain’s owner is also a big supporter/donor to DoFo). They were available to small and medium sized businesses for free, but even those are not available until January. Then the province decided to give the rapid tests for free and distribute through the provincial liquor stores – that went as well as you can guess it did.
I lined up at a pharmacy offering walk-ins in Toronto’s west end on Tuesday morning – the queue went around the block. I found out after a couple of hours that they were running out of doses and weren’t going to be able to get to me. I went home, regrouped, layered up even more and put on snow pants, and found another clinic with walk-ins. I was early enough (1.25 hours before opening) to secure a shot. After waiting 4 hours in the line, I managed to get my second Moderna (on top of my first shot which was AZ). Thank goodness!
And where’s DoFo in the midst of all of this? He effed off to his cottage in the Muskoka region north of Toronto. Provincial elections are in June – I hope that people remember this shitshow and vote strategically to get this corrupt buffoon out of office (don’t split the center-left and left vote dammit!)
Miss Bianca
@Ramiah Ariya: Uh, thanks…?…for sharing your anti-American screed with us. In the spirit of the season and of Balloon Juice in general, I heartily, cordially, invite you to go fuck yourself.
Another Scott
@Ramiah Ariya: Is this you?
If so, thanks for giving us more reasons not to take you seriously.
Cheers,
Scott.
Audrey
Like Thor Heyerdahl I am currently participating in Ford’s gong show. The provincial booking system is so haphazard, based on my postal code I can only book through my City’s public health unit or a local pharmacy. My local health units booking site is garbage though. I have to check each potential location individually and then check day by day to see if appointments are available. I can’t even check for appointment dates past January 3rd. My sister in another region can look for appointments based on distance and was able to at least book something for later in January although she may be able to get something sooner.
I did try going to the mobile Go Bus clinic near me this morning, but they can only give out a maximum of 30 shots per hour and so had a maximum of 240 doses available for the 1500+ people who had shown up. I did at least get a kit of the rapid tests Ford decided to finally start handing out despite sitting on millions of them for months!
Matt McIrvin
@lowtechcyclist: It’s also an article of faith among right-wing chuds that we only have COVID problems because of illegal immigrants bringing in disease, because they can only think about disease in racist terms where it’s about some kinds of people being “dirty” and some “clean”.
New Deal democrat
@Another Scott: Thanks.
The CDC site says the statistic is a projection forward of data collected over 4 weeks ending *November27*. Yikes!
The confidence interval is huge!
I think I’ll stick with Trevor Bedford.
Mike in NC
A local rag ran a story about Canadian ‘snowbirds’ who are deciding against visiting beach communities in South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida this winter because so few people are vaccinated and most refuse to wear masks. Many of these people have been vacationing in the South for 10-15 years or more.
No mention at all of Republicans, DeSantis, Kemp, or Trump and their hostility to precautions against COVID-19. Tis all a mystery, apparently!
Another Scott
@Mike in NC: Florida will be totally fine. After all, they have all those full cruise ships running and visiting all the tourist ports.
What’s that you say??
Cheers,
Scott.
Jinchi
Please stop accusing disability advocates of prioritizing bigots.
They’re against health care rationing, because they know that they are the first on the chopping block when that sort of policy gets normalized.
We don’t live in a fantasy world where “good” people will get care and “bad” people will be refused it. The type of politicos who push for these laws more often choose the other way around.
Shana
I’ve been getting the NYT daily update emails for over a year now. Today’s said that Fairfax County VA – my locality – reported 394 new cases yesterday, a 49% increase over the day before. Yikes!
Jinchi
Not to trivialize a covid surge, but I’m surprised they note the day-to-day changes, since those are dominated by reporting effects, especially at the county level. (Think Florida deciding to do a data dump once a week instead of sending daily updates)
Ohio Mom
@Feathers: Disability advocacy is full of unintended consequences and squabbling. I could go on all day about Autism advocacy and all my irritations.
Bill Arnold
@Ramiah Ariya:
DARVO is an acronym that stands for deny, attack, reverse victim and offender.
(You need to work on your technique. E.g. “Nor should we forgive the domestic Indian opposition”? )
ETA if you want to criticize the US, at least compare similar things, like Spring Break or the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, which are much smaller spreader events but at least comparable.
Bill Arnold
@New Deal democrat:
Trevor has been consistently reliable.
“Confidence intervals” (/error bars) is something that should be taught in schools, starting young.
J R in WV
@Kay:
What about us olds? Wife is 73, I’ll be 71 in a week. How many years do I have to be with people I love? Whimper, piss and moan… “I can’t wear this mask properly, it makes my glasses fog up! so you will just have to die so I’m not irritated by fogged up glasses.” Seriously, I have been told that first part of the sentence to my face. I made up the italics part, but it was there in his shitty little mind!
J R in WV
@Bill Arnold:
I’ve evidently had this guy, Ramiah Ariya, pied up in the pie safe for some time now. So he’s obviously posted shit like this before, and probably more than once or twice.
I also have no recollection of anti-Indian news and opinion showing up last spring, given that my wife is a compulsive news follower after a 30-year career with The AP, I think I would recall something like that.
Poor guy, can’t catch a break! Screw him with a rusty scythe…