Seems like a good day to repost this pic.twitter.com/83Y4c0iyOG
— Cheryl Rofer (@CherylRofer) January 3, 2022
Quoting the @Bloomberg story :
"More than 1 million people in the US were diagnosed with #Covid19 on Monday as a tsunami of #Omicron swamps every aspect of daily American life…cases [reached] the most that any country has ever reported."https://t.co/PsOkBwYkG6— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) January 4, 2022
always interesting to see who gets to share risk and who does not https://t.co/cuT2LB2pC4
— World Famous Art Thief (@CalmSporting) January 3, 2022
"Congress’ top doctor urged lawmakers Monday to move to a “maximal telework posture,” citing “unprecedented” numbers of COVID-19 cases at the Capitol that he said are mostly breakthrough infections of people already vaccinated."https://t.co/r1sL0kxSv6
— Maddow Blog (@MaddowBlog) January 4, 2022
We're Number One https://t.co/6ZcANGS7wM
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) January 3, 2022
FDA shortens timeframe to booster to five months instead of six; approves booster for kids 12-15; approves booster for 5-12 if immunocompromised.https://t.co/9xvijw3BMS
— The Hoarse Whisperer (@TheRealHoarse) January 3, 2022
======
Turns out, Omicron is driving a spike in demand for testing…everywhere. pic.twitter.com/y2r5n4kiGa
— Ben Wakana (@benwakana46) January 3, 2022
Authorities in the northern Chinese city of Xi’an say they can provide food, health care and other necessities for the 13 million residents under a now almost two-week-old lockdown, a claim some citizens are disputing. https://t.co/TMWb617Uys
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 4, 2022
China's Xian vows strict implementation of COVID curbs even as cases decline https://t.co/OsIlj5dmer pic.twitter.com/2mTbEW3nSa
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 4, 2022
… Yuzhou, 700 km (434 miles) southwest of Beijing, has ordered all residents to remain indoors and not to leave town, the local Communist Party said in a statement late on Monday.
“So far, the source of the virus is unknown, the number of cases is unclear … the virus control and prevention situation in our city is very severe,” authorities in Xuchang city, which has jurisdiction over Yuzhou, said in a statement on Tuesday.
“To curb and quash the epidemic within the shortest amount of time is a high-priority political task facing all officials and people in the city,” they said.
The greater Xuchang area reported two locally transmitted infections with confirmed clinical symptoms, and 18 local asymptomatic carriers for Monday, official data showed. It was not clear how many were in Yuzhou.
Vehicles were banned from Yuzhou’s roads unless they have clearance from virus control authorities, and authorities ordered a halt to activity in supermarkets apart from the supply of daily necessities.
Yuzhou’s case count is tiny compared with outbreaks in many other places around the world. But China is keen to keep outbreaks under control ahead of the Feb. 4-20 Winter Olympics, being held in Beijing and the nearby province of Hebei, and the Communist Party’s once-every-five-years congress expected later in the year…
There were no new fatalities in mainland China for Monday, leaving the death toll since the virus first emerged in the central city of Wuhan in late 2019 unchanged at 4,636.
Mainland China has had 102,841 confirmed symptomatic cases as of late Monday, including both local and imported ones.
Hong Kong to expand 'vaccine bubble' from Feb. 24 to combat COVID-19 spread https://t.co/HaXrPlKZZd pic.twitter.com/SUe10BQS6X
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 4, 2022
Taiwan urges vigilance after first Omicron coronavirus cases https://t.co/75PuwoLcUR pic.twitter.com/43KiNcaU1Q
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 4, 2022
India reported 37,379 new COVID-19 cases in the past 24 hours, the most since early September as the Omicron coronavirus variant overtakes Delta in places such as the capital New Delhi https://t.co/GwQ8G7MHdh pic.twitter.com/pxOj1UVjYw
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 4, 2022
Omicron variant infections in Japan reach over 1,000 cases on Tuesday -Yomiuri https://t.co/XSYbz9qrj4 pic.twitter.com/WtzHaiT29l
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 4, 2022
There's a growing Covid-19 outbreak at US military bases in Japan, and Japanese officials aren't happy about it.https://t.co/VbZw3wkryj
— William Gallo (@GalloVOA) January 4, 2022
Pakistan reported on Monday more than 700 COVID-19 cases in a single day, its highest tally in two months, as authorities warned of a fifth wave of infections and made preparations to try to contain the fast-spreading Omicron variant. https://t.co/gnn8vxqEvM
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) January 3, 2022
Thailand urges uptake of booster shots as Omicron cases rise https://t.co/It8crmTxUx pic.twitter.com/SNLWs5QXq4
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 4, 2022
Australian COVID-19 cases soared to a pandemic record as the Omicron variant ripped through most of the country, driving up hospitalisation rates as the once-formidable testing regime buckled under lengthy wait times and stock shortages https://t.co/6GEL52u1ok
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 4, 2022
Australia’s antitrust regulator said it will examine pricing pressures in the market for COVID-19 rapid antigen test kits, as calls grow louder for the government to make the tests free amid a severe shortage of the kits and cases soared to a record https://t.co/EUrv7U1vQa pic.twitter.com/hwYFSl9Kzi
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 4, 2022
Vaccinated foreign nationals from most countries will be able to enter Israel beginning next Sunday, the government announced on Monday.https://t.co/P7Sc0OD9UU
— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) January 3, 2022
Russia on Tuesday confirmed 15,903 Covid-19 infections and 834 deathshttps://t.co/Ic5pooBYkP
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) January 4, 2022
French MPs get death threats over support for Covid vaccine pass https://t.co/2djz2eUq7H
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) January 3, 2022
Read the stats here, discount the happy talk:
Omicron stats are huge, but look beyond them https://t.co/eWpDwUErvQ
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) January 4, 2022
In coronavirus-hit Mexico, many women are ‘determined to not have babies.' Births have dropped 11% since the 1st 6 months of 2021. Early in the pandemic Mexico’s population agency warned of 120k additional births — now the opposite seems to be happening https://t.co/rKoyHaFSjv
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 4, 2022
All schools in Canada’s most populous province, Ontario, will be shut down and move to online learning due to a record number of coronavirus infections fueled by the contagious omicron variant. https://t.co/3E9dNjgHto
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 3, 2022
======
There's no way to determine if a person is infected w/ #omicron or #delta, so treatment decisions are tough. Patients infected w/ delta variant can benefit from either of 2 monoclonal antibody therapies. But the meds do nothing for those w/ omicron https://t.co/A2TYxHY2RL
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 4, 2022
Time for schools to improve ventilation and require masks: Daily hospital admissions for children throughout the U.S. are 2x as high they were during the #Delta wave … https://t.co/oaouwt4El6
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 4, 2022
A reminder that sometimes "living with it" means taking some mitigations, forever, e.g. how in order to live with cholera we make sure our water doesn't have shit in it by building infrastructure to make sure our water doesn't have shit in it. https://t.co/MACDYvCtUh
— Another Angry Woman (@stavvers) January 1, 2022
======
75k cases a day in Fla
GOP: everybody stop testing https://t.co/i8SHJX8sUN
— Eric Boehlert (@EricBoehlert) January 3, 2022
The Southeastern U.S. is on the cusp of "a firestorm of #Omicron cases," with few safeguards in place. It's the region of the country with the lowest vaccinations rates & the most likely to shun masks https://t.co/K6nlWiL78O
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 4, 2022
we're all trying to find the political party who did this https://t.co/IciGClszZH
— Michael Tae Sweeney (@mtsw) January 3, 2022
#Omicron: Nearly 45,000 new coronavirus cases reported in L.A. County over the holiday weekend https://t.co/1EeziIvc0Z
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 4, 2022
In NYC If you test negative after exposure you’re expected to return to school the next day, regardless of vaccination status.
You call this "Swagger" @NYCMayor?
Protect our kids. Protect our teachers.
*THAT'S Swagger* https://t.co/VWmXlsNTGO
— Diana Zicklin Berrent ? (@dianaberrent) January 4, 2022
Masshole Gov. Chickenshite Charlie Baker (R-of course) has pretty well checked out on the whole ‘governance’ thing: How hard can it be to deliver a busload of children, many of them too young to find their way home alone, some of them with special needs, through Boston’s notoriously congested streets? Especially when it’s only public-school kids we’re talking about?
State offered National Guard drivers licensed for 7-passenger vans, not large or even smaller school buses. Works for some districts but not Boston.
Our professionally trained drivers carry out complex routes w/our most precious cargo: 27,000 kids—many students w/disabilities. https://t.co/3Mj0mtIhQa
— Michelle Wu 吳弭 (@wutrain) January 3, 2022
"We could just pay people to stay home. Well…not *those* people. Me, mostly." https://t.co/cfXActwZx2
— Jeff Fecke (@jkfecke) January 3, 2022
On The Road – randy khan – Springtime in Paris
YY_Sima Qian
On 1/3 China reported 108 new domestic confirmed (4 previously asymptomatic) & 21 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Shaanxi Province reported 95 new domestic confirmed cases (all mild). 8 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There are currently 1766 active domestic confirmed cases (including 10 serious & 3 critical) in the province.
At Yuncheng in Shanxi Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case, a person arrived from Xi’an in Shaanxi.
Guangdong Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 21 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 19 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Hulun Buir in Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region 11 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 19 active domestic confirmed cases remaining (all at Manzhouli).
Shanghai Municipality reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, both travelers from elsewhere in China., & are traced close contacts of domestic positive cases. 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
Jiangsu Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Zhejiang Province reported 8 new domestic confirmed cases, all at Ningbo (in Beilun District). All cases in the new cluster (24 in all to date, 20 mild & 4 moderate) have been workers in the same factory. 9 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 455 active domestic confirmed cases in the province (spread across Shaoxing, Ningbo & Hangzhou). 1 factory & 1 village at Beilun District in Ningbo are currently at Medium Risk.
At Suzhou in Anhui Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city, part of the transmission chain from Zhejiang. The Medium Risk village has been re-designated to Low Risk.
At Chengdu in Sichuan Province the last domestic confirmed case recovered.
At Xiamen in Fujian Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining, a quarantine hotel worker.
At Chongqing Municipality there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining.
Henan Province reported 5 new domestic confirmed (4 previously asymptomatic) & 19 asymptomatic cases. There currently are 25 active domestic confirmed & 27 active domestic asymptomatic cases.
Yunnan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 18 active domestic confirmed & 10 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Tongren in Guizhou Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city, a person who returned from Jinghong, Sipsongpanna Prefecture in Yunnan.
Imported Cases
On 1/3, China reported 67 new imported confirmed cases (5 previously asymptomatic), 33 imported asymptomatic cases, 3 imported suspect cases:
Overall in China, 46 confirmed cases recovered (24 imported), 19 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (17 imported) & 9 were reclassified as confirmed cases (5 imported), & 3,788 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 3,256 active confirmed cases in the country (893 imported), 30 in serious condition (3 imported), 588 active asymptomatic cases (540 imported), 3 suspect cases (all imported). 42,293 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 1/3, 2,855.225M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 7.327M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 1/4, Hong Kong has not yet published the day’s report, but there is at least 1 community case w/o identified source of transmission, likely to be Omicron. 6 domestic Omicron cases have been identified so far from the restaurant cluster seeded by a flight crew that breached home quarantine protocols.
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
There were 1171 new cases reported with 17.4% test positivity.
Deaths are now at 1606.
Full vaccination stuck at 68.9%
127 people are hospitalized, 77% are not vaccinated.
27 are in the ICU, 85% are unvaccinated.
Of those 27 in the ICU: 21 are also intubated, 85% are unvaccinated.
According to a little chart the age groups in the hospital right now are, in order of the most cases: 55 to 74, 75+, 20 to 54 and <20.
3% of the hospital cases are children.
debbie
Then, of course, there’s this lie about Betty White’s demise:
NYC’s new mayor seems off to a rocky start. //
New Deal democrat
Since the big issue about Omicron is how “mild” it is in terms of hospitalizations and deaths vs. earlier variants of COVID, and we are now almost 3 weeks into the big outbreak, I thought I would run the numbers, with appropriate lags, for the US. These do not include yesterday’s updates.
Cases made a low on October 26 at 71k
Hospitalizations made a low about 10 days later at 44k
Deaths made a low almost 4 weeks after cases at 1142.
By December 15, cases had risen roughly 70% to 120k.
By December 26, hospitalizations had risen roughly 60% to 70.5k.
As of January 2, deaths were 1350 (less than 3 weeks since December 15).
Between December 15 and December 22, cases rose another 50% to 180k.
Between December 26 and January 2, hospitalizations rose another 40% to 98.7k.
Projecting 25 days from December 15, deaths would be expected to rise to about 1940.
On January 2, there were 405k cases, a further increase of 125%.
Projecting 10 days forward, if hospitalizations continue to rise at a rate of 80% of the number of cases, that will mean a doubling of hospitalizations to 197k by January 12 (if the system can even handle that number).
Projecting 25 days from January 2, if deaths were to rise at the same rate as cases, on January 27 deaths could be expect to be 4400. If there were only an 80% rate of increase (i.e., 125% x.8), that would be 3900 deaths per day.
BUT, in South Africa cases increased 75x from trough to Omicron peak, but deaths only increased about 5x, or 1/15 the rate of increase. If the US followed that trend, then deaths should only increase about 20%-25% from their November lows, to only 1400.
There are two big takeaways from this:
1. It is simply too early to say what will happen with deaths from Omicron in the US.
2. Omicron is not much “milder” than Delta in terms of hospitalizations so far, which have been rising at 80% of the rate of cases.
Thus my suspicion is that the US hospital system will be completely overwhelmed within 7 to 10 days, and deaths will rise to nearly 4000/day by the end of January, surpassing last winter’s peak of 3400. In other words, while my initial hope was that the US would follow South Africa’s benign course, hospitalization data already suggests that is simply not going to be the case – although Just how big an increase in deaths there will be is, as indicated above, open to a very wide range of outcomes at this point.
Spanky
FYI, in the overnight post Amir said he would be in the hospital a few days and would not be posting. No further details.
Winston
Had an appointment with my dermatologist yesterday. She is kind of against vax. So I asked her if being against vax was a good strategy for getting repubs elected? She didn’t answer.
germy
Baud
@Winston:
“Stick to skin.”
p.a.
Rhode Island allows COVID-positive staff to work at hospitals and nursing homes in crisis
by NBC 10 NEWS
Monday, January 3rd 2022
No linkie: clear channel owned local station.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Coworker at work just came back after recovering from COVID: he only had one shot over six months ago, ironically had the booster scheduled when he got ill. He described it as like a bad cold. He was working from home for two weeks but said he was being excessively cautious about spreading it. He was never so ill he couldn’t answer emails or log into the 9:30am staff meeting.
This compared to another friend who had the original COVID strain before the vaccine and she couldn’t get out bed for two weeks.
rikyrah
Just tried to make the appointment for Peanut (13) to get a booster shot and they won’t let me??
Gonna call when they open . She .needs to get that ???
rikyrah
@Spanky:
Oh no ?
????????
New Deal democrat
Following up on the graph of NY cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the post above, as of 10 days ago cases had tripled from their recent lows. As of yesterday, hospitalizations were up 2.5x from their recent lows. In other words, hospitalizations were rising at a rate of about 85% of the increase in cases.
Graphs without lags are highly misleading.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@debbie: The anti-vaccers are off in Q-anon fantasy land now.
OzarkHillbilly
@Winston: Have you found a new dermatologist yet?
Winston
@Baud: She left the field. I could tell she was ageist vax, so I told her no cutting on me today. She is such
a cutie, too.
Suzanne
@rikyrah: I am wondering if it’s okay for the 5-11 age cohort to get boosted, since they just got vaxxed. Is there really an advantage to waiting 5-6 months?
Also….. WE NEED SOMETHING FOR THE UNDER-5 KIDS NOW.
Geo Wilcox
I was reading the daily Covid posts on Pro Med and one of them said this omicron shit is more like a deviant than a variant. It is so different and the symptoms so off from the previous variants that it is causing a “fresh pandemic” along side the other variants.
This is from the article:
This paper describes a step change in omicron’s transmission capability, 45 amino acid substitutions including 30 in spike protein of which 15 are in receptor-binding region and markedly decreased neutralization by antibodies in 2-dose recipients of vaccines, fundamental changes in the omicron entry processes in host cells and a major shift in replication properties.
Clinically, from various reports we have learned that the disease characteristics of omicron are different from what has been described for COVID-19. The paper described that omicron does not induce cell syncytia and has reduced replication kinetics in cultured lung epithelial cells. Instead of cell surface fusion like in SARS-CoV-2, omicron preferentially achieves entry through endosomal fusion.
All these add up to the fact that omicron is not simply a “variant” but is a “deviant” with genotypic and phenotypic changes, antigenic shift rather than drift; alteration in pathogenetic mechanisms and disease characteristics. From other sources we know that cough is not common; symptoms are predominantly upper respiratory, high fever is infrequent; pneumonia and ARDS not usual; hypoxia rare; case-fatality minimal – all these in comparison with all earlier variants.
Now omicron is causing a “fresh pandemic”, against the background of the recent global widespread infection and consequent immunity by Wuhan-D614G and alpha, beta, gamma and delta variants.
For these reasons I suggest that what is currently classified as omicron variant of concern is a subtype or subspecies of SARS-CoV-2. The disease caused by omicron is different from COVID-19 and COVID-21 may be a better term to highlight the difference.
Kay
@Suzanne:
My daughter has her daughter in a Moderna trial for little kids and they were told it’s going well and should be complete soon:
lowtechcyclist
I know, it’s a real head-scratcher, innit? At least if you’re a Republican.
eclare
@lowtechcyclist: Does MD really have all eligible people vaccinated at a 92% rate? I find that very hard to believe.
Peale
@Geo Wilcox: I’ve been wondering that as well. At what point has it evolved so much that its something new.
Plus I’d like un upgrade to the name. COVID-19 is so two years ago.
Wvng
@debbie: NYC is off to a truly rocky (i.e.: idiotic) start. That swagger comment was trumpian in its idiocy. It’s the kind of thing DeSantis says.
Suzanne
@Kay: I’m envious, I’ve been trying so hard to get Youngest Spawn in a trial.
Fingers crossed. Omicron is every-freakin-where right now and she is my only unvaxxed one.
lowtechcyclist
@rikyrah:
Hope you’re able to get her in there. I definitely want to get the kiddo (14) in for his booster within the next few days. Omicron’s running wild here in the DC area.
At least our schools are operating under a mask mandate. (When they reopen, that is – yesterday’s snow has extended the Christmas break.)
Kay
@Wvng:
There’s a lot of kind of “power of positive thinking” energy on Covid on the Right. It’s in that category.
The best thing about this virus as far as I’m concerned is its complete indifference to what people say.
lowtechcyclist
@eclare:
I do too. Best I can figure is that that’s the “had at least one shot” rate for 18+, and a lot of people who got boosters got counted as someone getting their first shot. But even then it seems like a stretch.
ETA: Anyway, regardless of the numbers, we all know who’s still unvaxxed, and it’s almost entirely the folks who vote Republican. Hogan knows that too, but we’d need either the Spanish Inquisition (the real one, not the Monty Python version) or sodium pentothal to get him to actually say it.
YY_Sima Qian
W/ daily incidence rate at Xi’an in Shaanxi Province dropping, & more importantly the vast majority of new cases found from persons already under home or centralized quarantine, many areas in the city should be exiting lock downs in the coming week. It will relieve the logistical challenges of delivering supplies to residential compounds & apartment doorsteps.
As in Wuhan, while the authorities are making food deliveries, it consists mainly of rice, noodles, vegetables and eggs. Meat and fruits are not typically part of the package. While the Chinese government had sent out advisories in Nov. encouraging people to stock at least 2 weeks’ worth of food in preparation for potential emergencies through the winter, many younger people have not taken heed. Life in modern Chinese cities is very convenient – take outs, groceries and anything else one might need can typically be delivered to the door step within 40 mins of placing an order on an APP. Years of such convenience has made people unaccustomed to keeping more than a day or two worth of food in the fridge, & many young people do not cook any more. That whole machine breaks down when too many of the delivery people are themselves under lock down. In many (most?) areas in the city residents are still allowed outside of their homes, but cannot leave the residential compounds. In theory, they can continue to order grocery & pick them up at the compound’s main gate, but not if there are few people to make the deliveries. Some communities & residential compound management may not have foreseen the complications, even though every city in China that experienced lock downs had faced such logistical challenges. During Wuhan’s lock down, some of the more enterprising residential compound managements established their own distribution channels for daily necessities.
Yuzhou in Xuchang, Henan Province, quickly entered a snap lock down when 3 cases were found in the community from cryptic transmission, to freeze movement while the authorities screening all residents & establish if there hasalready is a wide spread outbreak (as in Xi’an). Other cities in China have done so in the past. If the cluster is found to be relatively small & highly concentrated in location, then most of the city will be quickly released from lock down. The 18 new domestic asymptomatic cases reported by the city on 1/3 indicates that the authorities were right to be cautious.
So far, the new cluster at Beilun District in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province is limited to a single garment factory (albeit quite a large one). The authorities cannot rule out fomite transmission via materials received from Vietnam, as genomic analysis of the viral samples taken from the cluster indicate very high similarity to strains currently prevalent in Vietnam & unrelated to those from recent outbreak in Zhejiang or elsewhere in China.
The new cases reported by Zhengzhou in Henan Province is equally concerning, since they are from cryptic community transmission, found at hospital intake. 1 of the two cases is an elderly retiree that has spent the past few days playing cards & mahjong at parlors.
As I have expected, this winter will be an uneasy one in China, w/ Delta stressing local pandemic response in a variety of jurisdictions. This is before Omicron has shown up, as it almost certainly will. My family will not travel for personal reasons through Chinese New Year, & I will avoid business travel as much was possible.
debbie
@Wvng:
Talk about buyer’s remorse!
Winston
@OzarkHillbilly: Interesting. I’m going to have a conversation with my PMP about that. Otherwise, she is about as cute as cute could be. She didn’t believe I was 74 years old (as if she was interested) she said 74 is the new 64. Like she knew being 35.
Kay
@Suzanne:
We don’t know if she got the real stuff- 1/4 are the control. But she had zero side effects and didn’t object to the needle for the vaccine but did object to the blood draws. My daughter is picky about who does the blood draw. She is good at painless draws so wanted to do it herself. Very judgmental on clumsy, painful injections.
Wvng
@Geo Wilcox: As a once upon a time crustacean taxonomist I’ve been confronting the challenge of species determination in viruses for the first time. Back in my pre-DNA day taxonomy was primarily external morphology (species x separated from y by number of spines on the second leg) and by such measures it sure seems that omicron is sufficiently different from previous covid19 strains to qualify. But it is hard to imagine the depths of despair a paragraph like your final one could induce: “The disease caused by omicron is different from COVID-19 and COVID-21 may be a better term to highlight the difference.”
Soprano2
I just looked at the Covid dashboard for my county, and just like I thought you can see the graph of cases starting to go straight up. The hospital census made a big leap, too. I sure do hope to see a corresponding leap in vaccinations – right now we have 51.65% of all eligible people fully vaccinated. There was a leap when delta got bad here, so it might happen again. I know things will be really bad here – my county has the highest vaccination rate in this area. Also, today the schools reopen without the mask mandate in place because our state government is actively trying to make all governmental bodies stop any and all Covid mitigation policies due to a stupid Cole County judge’s ruling. I feel really, really bad for my teacher friends.
Anyone expressing the idea that there will be any widespread shutdowns anywhere in this country is dreaming – that’s not going to happen again. Also, that tweet about water is only half-right – the main way we live with waterborne diseases is that we have water treatment plants that clean the water that comes into your home. The water in lakes, rivers, streams and oceans has plenty of fecal contamination in it even with modern sewage treatment, and sometimes the sewage system overflows – that’s always going to happen a little bit.
Soprano2
@Kay: You find that “power of positive thinking” stupidity re: Covid on the crazy left too, where they think a proper diet and the right essential oils will keep it away. I know a woman like that who used to come to Jazzercize – she tried to tell me if only I would eat the right diet I could keep from getting Covid. I told her that’s not how infectious disease works.
Robert Sneddon
We may be experiencing two separate SARS-COV-2 driven pandemics now — the first is the Delta variant which may (and I must emphasise this) may be causing most of the serious cases that result in hospitalisation and deaths. I’ve not seen any breakout numbers of the serious-illness cases showing the proportions caused by the Delta variant versus the Omicron variant.
The Omicron variant is not benign, far from it but it doesn’t look to be nearly as serious as the Delta variant for individual sufferers. The question is will Omicron displace Delta as Delta displaced the original Wuhan strain and the Alpha variants? The best news, so to speak, would be to see all new cases reported as Omicron but last time I saw figures from the Scottish authorities Omicron represented 80% of new cases, meaning that the absolute number of Delta cases was remaining roughly the same (ca. 3000 new cases a day, same as two) months ago.
Yarrow
Not sure how much notice this variant in southern France has got yet. Cases there are increasing more than the rest of France, as are hospitalizations (from what I read in a separate thread.) Vaccination/booster rates are similar so they’re not sure what’s going on. Not something to worry about but worth keeping an eye on.
Argiope
@YY_Sima Qian: I appreciate the updates from China. Interesting about fomite transmissions. These seem very rare but when there is extremely low transmission otherwise, this may be a route into the human population–I think there was a case in NZ last year of suspected fomite introduction.
arrieve
I went for a PCR test in Manhattan yesterday — I tested positive with a home test Saturday, and wanted confirmation. I had to stand in line for three hours in 30 degree temperatures — just what the doctor ordered for someone with an upper respiratory infection — and when I was finally home and had taken a hot shower and crawled back into bed, I did wonder why I had bothered. I’m not going to get the results for at least five days, and I’m going to quarantine until my (fortunately mild) symptoms are gone test or no test.
I think I’m just having a hard time believing that I got Covid, after almost two years of being oh so careful. I didn’t see anyone over the holidays, I haven’t even been in a restaurant except for picking up a burrito to go, so it’s not as though I had any extra risk. And I still got sick.
Anyway, I can confirm that the testing centers are swamped. After I had been waiting two hours they announced that they were out of rapid PCR tests, so half the people who had been waiting left without even getting tested. I was just getting the regular PCR test, so I stayed.
Kay
@Soprano2:
Agreed. But IMO people on the Right are particularly drawn to it because it’s offered a lot as a way to “success” (wealth). It’s sales, basically.
I’m to the point in my covid journey where I just watch this virus do what it does. It doesn’t care if you’re swaggering or not. Swagger, crawl, doesn’t care.
We have a female lawyer here who I really like and have worked with for years. She’s out wih covid and quite ill. I assume she isn’t vaxxed. She’s pretty far Right. I’m doing joint motions for both of us because she can’t but I’m not angry at her at all – I’ve given up on them. I feel we all did what we could.
mrmoshpotato
I fucking hate the Republican party.
Matt McIrvin
@eclare: I suspect most states’ vaccination statistics are really bad. Second and third shots being miscounted as first ones and then “1+ shot” gets cited as the “vaccinated” figure. On Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard the official fraction of vaccinated is like 115%; it’s ridiculous.
Robert Sneddon
Scotland — there were over 17,000 new COVID-19 cases reported today with a warning that there’s still a backlog in the testing and reporting pipeline. Test positivity rate is 35%. No deaths were reported but we’re still in a confused situation here thanks to the weekend and statutory holidays where the registry offices are closed. We should get substantial data on deaths by Friday.
The numbers of people in hospital with COVID-19 continues to tick up to about 1,150 with 42 of those being ICU and/or mechanical ventilation beds. This second number is way down on what it was two months ago. There’s no breakdown on how many cases are due to Delta and how many are caused by the Omicron variant.
Vaccination operations have been generally on hiatus over the long holidays due to staffing and logistics limitations, again don’t expect any real numbers on how this is going until Friday.
Matt McIrvin
@Soprano2:
However, many businesses and institutions will be forced to shut down for lack of staff.
DB11
@Spanky: Hope that Amir will be OK. Appreciate his perspective and contributions here.
Mousebumples
@Suzanne: I think the 5-11 approval is an “extra dose” (not a booster). My MIL is a kidney transplant recipient. Got her “extra dose” in August and had been on target to get her booster (4th dose) next month. Not sure if that’s been moved up with the now 5 months needed since last dose update?
@Kay: thanks for that news. Anxiously waiting to get my 2 year old vaxxed. Here’s hoping for a fast ASCIP meeting after the results are finalized. And that her pediatrician will let me schedule a Vax appointment for the next day before the official approval is dry. ?
Cermet
New Deal democrat, you do realize that Delta is still a major illness here unlike SA? That will skew the data. Omicron might displace more Delta reducing the rates; however, we are in for a bad time regardless. Thank you thug’s – your killing so many innocent people that did take precautions.
Soprano2
This is basically my attitude as well. If having her unvaccinated aunt and uncle in their 50’s die of Covid, leaving their 12-year-old an orphan, can’t convince my regular customer to get vaccinated, what can I say to her to change her mind? I think we did everything humanly possible to get them vaccinated – I didn’t anticipate that these hugely self-centered people wouldn’t race to protect themselves from a deadly disease. I understood why they wouldn’t protect others – they don’t care about other people they don’t know – but how they decided to not protect themselves is still kind of a mystery to me, especially since they could have given their cult leader credit for their ability to protect themselves!
wvng
@Soprano2: It has shocked me to my core that there are just so fricking many “hugely self-centered people.”
Uncle Cosmo
As are graphs reporting absolute numbers of anything. In that chart retweeted by Laurie Garrett, the absolute number of hospitalizations in the US is ~90,000 and that for France is ~20,000. But the US population (332M) is 5x larger than France’s (67M), so the per capita hospitalization rate is a bit higher for France than for the US. IOW the graph is pushing a narrative unsupported by the data.
I love Garrett in general, but she can be so frustratingly innumerate sometimes. I hope it wasn’t intentional in this instance.
Soprano2
@Matt McIrvin: Yes, that could very well be true. Also, other essential services like police, fire, wastewater and water treatment, and so on. That’s why it wasn’t bad for CDC to change their Covid guidance. It’s dumb for people with no symptoms who aren’t contagious to sit at home for 10 days, and it also discourages people from getting tested in the first place.
bluefoot
@YY_Sima Qian:
What you say about people not storing food and relying primarily on takeout is interesting. I see that amongst the millenial and younger cohort of my friends here in a major city in the Northeast US. Even when we had stay-at-home orders here, way back in 2020, a lot of them still relied on takeout. This is especially true for those who make decent money.
My employer just sent an email encouraging everyone to work from home if they can for the next two weeks in order to ride out the current omicron wave. We do have a vaccine and mask mandate at work, though the mask mandate hasn’t been strictly adhered to. The company is big enough that I keep hoping they will initiate on-site testing but they still haven’t done it. I’m not even asking for it to be free; the company could partner with a large testing facility and offer testing on site. (Hell, we’re a biotech company. We could hire a team to run RT-PCR testing using the Broad protocol. In the long run that might be cheaper and easier.)
wvng
@Soprano2: CDC is damned if they do, damned if they don’t. I agree that the change in guidance was the best option to keep the nation going in our fractured society.
Suzanne
@Mousebumples: From the Reuters piece:
”The agency also authorized a third shot for children aged 5 through 11 years who are immunocompromised.”
So my 11-year-old isn’t immunocompromised, so she doesn’t qualify. And for the 12-15 set, they shortened the time for the booster from 6 months to 5. So I don’t think my kid can get a booster yet. She just got the second shot in November.
YY_Sima Qian
@Argiope: Yeah, China has attributed more than half a dozen outbreaks since May. 2020 to fomite transmission via international parcels, goods or frozen food. There were additional cases attributed to fomite transmission that did not develop into large clusters. Fomite transmission were also established in a few instances during the 1st wave in winter/spring 2020. Compared to the tremendous volume of international trade and parcel service that cross Chinese borders daily, the instances are indeed quite rare, & would be buried in the noise in places where COVID-19 is highly prevalent. For countries that have pursued, or is still pursuing, “Zero COVID”, it has been a nuisance that is difficult to guard against. China is decontaminating just about every package or shipment of goods (at least the exterior surfaces) that enter its borders, w/ sampling for RT-PCR testing, addicting to the time required for logistics. Not much of a concern for the average person, however.
New Deal democrat
@Cermet: According to Trevor Bedford’s trend projections, which are based on hard data through December 20, and have been much better than the CDC’s, right now Delta is less than 10% of all cases, totalling about 25,000:
https://github.com/blab/rt-from-frequency-dynamics/tree/master/results/omicron-countries
Nicole
@Suzanne:
There might actually be. The booster, as I understand it, is to wake up the immune system to make more antibodies. It’s a natural part of the process for antibodies to fade; if we still had antibodies for every illness we’d ever fought off, our blood would be the consistency of sludge. That said, antibodies usually get to the scene of the crime quicker than T cells or B cells, which may be why people who are recently boosted are getting less ill (overall). The 5-11 cohort very recently got their 2nd shot, so they likely have plenty of antibodies at the moment (my son’s 2nd shot is more recent than my booster, in fact). If we boosted 5-11 year old kids now, it’s arguable whether they would get any benefit from it. In fact, the antibodies that are already there might step in and do all the work on the booster shot, and the T cells and B cells (which are the ones that really learn new things from the boosters), won’t get a chance.
YY_Sima Qian
@bluefoot:
In China it is the fresh out of college grads & young singles or couples w/o children that order delivered take out, as it is very cheap (labor being still relatively cheap in China). Even for families that cook (like we do), groceries are still often ordered for delivery for the convenience. I think only people older than 50 still do their shopping mainly in person at supermarkets or produce markets. We may visit a supermarket once a month or three.
Fair Economist
Flu report for 12/19-21-12/25/21. Positivity abruptly leveling off, up from 5.6% to 6.2%. Lab confirmed cases *down* a bit from last week, from 4,514 to 4,393, with 1,016 cases added to previous weeks. H3N2 continues to be overwhelmingly dominant, but there were a few Influenza B cases this week, 1.3% of those typed. Still absolutely no other Influenza A types. New hospitalizations up from 1,265 to 1,825; still small compared to COVID hospitalizations.
The flu epidemic might be nearing its peak for this year. Presumably fear of Omicron and resulting caution is at least part of this.
Madeleine
@Spanky: This is disturbing news. I hope Amir will be home and improving soon.
Matt McIrvin
@Soprano2: I’ve been seeing a real breakdown of trust among non-denialists, people feeling like the CDC is leaving them high and dry for some sinister reason. I think they’re trying to do their best but that change particularly provoked a lot of contempt and derision. There was an anonymously sourced rumor going around that it was specifically at the behest of Delta Airlines, but I heard no corroboration of that.
laura
All best wishes to Amir Khalid for health, well being and a swift return to the fold.
john b
@Kay: was so relieved to get my kid in on that trial (and that he showed a 24-hr high fever after the first dose — suggesting it’s not a placebo). second dose in a couple of weeks!
Soprano2
Yeah well, how will they feel when there are not enough firefighters to respond to emergencies because they’re all sitting at home even though they are asymptomatic, not contagious, and could be at work. What about when the hospital has to shut down because there aren’t enough workers to staff it at all? They can sneer all they want about how it’s all for corporations, but that’s just dumb and wrong. This is coming from people who can easily sit at home and work, and who don’t seem to have much concept of the fact that many people cannot just sit at home all the time.
Origuy
@Soprano2: I believe the tweet about sewage in the water is from a commenter in the UK, where there has been a big fuss because the Tories refused to vote for a bill that would increase fines on water companies that released raw sewage into waterways.
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
How solid are those fomites attributions? A bayesian would suspect undetected human to human transmission unless proven otherwise, even with limited or no known community spread.
Peale
@Soprano2: Yep. They latched onto the airlines because that was in the news and Delta is is Atlanta so that must be it. At my partner’s hospital system 3,000 out of 20,000 workers are out sick right now. And schools are going to shut due to lack of teachers for the next month, regardless of how much wishful thinking there is for keeping the school open. Yeah, the CDC must have been thinking about people getting to see meemaw and peepaw over the holdiays.
Another Scott
@Bill Arnold:
AFAIK, fomite transmission is rare but not impossible. Nature PDF of article from 2/2021 (12 page .pdf) seems to be a good summary.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
soapdish
The CDC is definitely shooting itself in the foot.
https://twitter.com/tiffanycli/status/1478428102485164032
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: Fomite transmission is even more difficult establish beyond any doubt than droplet or aerosol transmission. It is more of a process of elimination. If all of the established close contacts & all of the people in the same geographical region have consistently tested negative, then epidemiological investigators have to look beyond direct human to human transmission via droplet or aerosol. Phylogenetic analysis will also indicate whether the viral sequences of a new outbreak is more similar to those of past domestic outbreaks or strains prevalent overseas (& whether that matches the areas of origin fo the suspected packages that seeded the outbreak). While over half a dozen outbreaks seeded by fomite transmission through the course of the pandemic may seem a lot, this is against what must be many millions of packages that enter China daily, or many billions of packages through the course of the pandemic. Furthermore, only the index case(s) might have been infected via fomite transmission, the further cases of the cluster/outbreaks are still infected by droplet/aerosol.
I remember a mystery case at Tianjin in 2020, where a truck driver doing pick up at a frozen food warehouse was infected (& confirmed to be in the same cluster via phylogenetic analysis), but did not load the suspected source of fomite transmission (a shipment of frozen pig heads from the US) or came in contact of any other positive cases. Surveillance video revealed that at the time the driver was performing his pick up, the batch of frozen pig heads was being moved from 1 frozen storage space to another. Initially the driver stood by & watched. However, a few packages of pig heads fell off the pellet onto the ground & the driver went to help pick them up. The both the inner & outer packaging of the pig heads tested positive on RT-PCR, as did the storages spaces they were placed in, the pellets used for transportation, as well as the ground where the packages of pig heads fell on to. Combined w/ genetic evidence, the authorities have fairly strong circumstantial evidence supporting fomite transmission via imported frozen goods. W/ epidemiological investigations, circumstantial evidence is all that will be available, including in cases of droplet & aerosol transmission.
Low levels of cryptic community transmission will not stay low for long in China, even with the original Wuhan variant, let alone the more transmissive Alpha & Delta variants. After an area has eliminated a new outbreak & exits lock down, human activities return to normal levels fairly quickly, & any cryptic transmission will resume rapid exponential growth. This is especially true before Spring 2021, when vaccines became widely available.
BigJimSlade
@arrieve: get well soon!
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.