NEW @SenSchumer says due to COVID and expected winter storm, the Senate will recess tonight and come back to vote Tuesday to consider voting rights and not take the planned MLK week recess.
— Kelly O'Donnell (@KellyO) January 14, 2022
Breaking: House passes Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act & sends to Senate for immediate debate
Not a single GOP House member supported voting rights bill
— Ari Berman (@AriBerman) January 13, 2022
“You do hard things in White Houses,” says @PressSec, when asked about several setbacks and congressional opposition.
"We could certainly propose legislation to see if people support bunny rabbits and ice cream but that wouldn’t be very rewarding to the American people."
— Matt Viser (@mviser) January 13, 2022
Let me get this straight: 60-vote threshold was carved up 160 times so senators could pass Trump tax cuts, gas bill & Supreme Ct Justices but when it comes to voting rights, “traditions” & “comity” mean you hug it tight, throw the voters under the senate desks & go home? No way.
— Amy Klobuchar (@amyklobuchar) January 13, 2022
Four times last year, the majority in the Senate tried to advance legislation on voting rights. And four times last year, Republicans in the Senate used outdated rules to block it. Enough is enough.
— Vice President Kamala Harris (@VP) January 13, 2022
Was looking for something else and found this one Dec 13, 2020. "Sedition-themed violence" pretty much got it three weeks before January 6. https://t.co/2JkTdZQF1k
— Mig Greengard (@chessninja) January 13, 2022
Gods come and go, but Murphy Rules…
Sinema’s personality, Comey’s sanctimony, McConnell’s nihilism, the butterfly ballot, Weiner’s dick, the timing of Justices Scalia & Ginsburg’s deaths, Office Goodman’s successful decoy move to prevent the massacre of a bunch of Senators…so much hinges on flukes & weirdness
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) January 13, 2022
Baud
That’s why you don’t play games when it comes to voting Dem if you’re not a fascist.
germy
Baud
@germy:
Yeah, at least Machin has the decency not to play both sides.
John S.
As a liberal Democrat living in Florida, all I keep hearing in my head lately is The Animals…
rikyrah
Good Morning Everyone ???
Baud
@rikyrah:
Good morning.
NotMax
In case you missed it, Liz took Andy to the royal woodshed.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: I rather doubt it’s decency that compels him to not do that.
eta: good thing I gotta leave, took me 3 tries to make this one little comment coherent
NotMax
Eat one or the other. Percentage for both in the same cone is minuscule.
//
Another Scott
Ok, the stage is finally set.
It’s likely that S&M will not vote for the necessary step to proceed, and neither will Murkowski or Collins or anything GQPer. What’s next? How can those no votes be used to increase our chances of winning in November? Presumably Schumer has a reason to continue to push and make S&M uncomfortable – note that he hasn’t (yet) done that with the BBBA.
We knew that this wasn’t going to be easy…
Hang in there, everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
germy
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly:
I never worry about coherence.
germy
@Baud:
Baud
@germy:
The only shocking thing is that Peter Baker pointed out the hypocrisy.
germy
@Baud:
When you’ve pissed off Mr. Both Sides, you know you done fucked up.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@germy: Let every utterance issued by Steve Scalise be a reminder of the necessity of one honing one’s skills at the range by repetition and practice.
Chief Oshkosh
@Baud: It’s also why a society would want to have a rationale form of governance. Such a form of governance would include a practical process for change.
Oh well.
Betty Cracker
Sensing blood in the water (from the shivs Manchin and Sinema stuck in the POTUS, again), ConMedia is singing from the same hymnal this morning, and the chorus is “Biden is so divisive — even Democrats Manchin and Sinema don’t believe Republicans are undermining democracy by suppressing the vote and subverting elections.”
germy
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
Not really false. Biden is divisive because he opposes fascism, and two Dems don’t believe the GOP is subverting democracy (or don’t care).
NotMax
@germy
Scalise: No hat, all prattle.
//
germy
Ten Bears
Are we done playing “nice”?
Gin & Tonic
@germy: Wow, even that asshole is noticing?
rikyrah
Ari Berman (@AriBerman) tweeted at 4:01 PM on Thu, Jan 13, 2022:
I just cannot get over how state-level Republicans are passing wave of new voter suppression laws on simple-majority, party-line votes to keep Dems from ever winning another fair election but Manchin & Sinema say it would be too partisan to stop them with simple majority
(https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/1481748280732225537?t=-LrqraR_TEwVuGYbi86nlA&s=03)
Betty Cracker
@Baud: I’ll take “Don’t Care” for $500, Alex.
cmorenc
Or, consider how differently the 70s and 80s would have played out had Robert Kennedy not been shot by Sirhan Sirhan exiting a speech venue through the kitchen, or hand John Hinkley been a competent-enough shooter and Sirhan not…or how perversely beneficial long-term it would have been had the 1976 campaign lasted another week and Ford (whose numbers were rapidly improving) narrowly beaten Jimmy Carter rather than narrowly losing (because then, the impact of stagflation and the Iran Hostage crisis would have fallen on Ford and Republicans) – and the “change” voters wanted in 1980 would have been Ted Kennedy, not Ronald Reagan. We’d have had some form of universal health care in the early 1980s.
Kalakal
Am I bad for thinking it would be nice to see an executive order that announced that courts of law had to function in person and that they could not require masking, vaccination, social distancing, covid status or any other pandemic control measure? After all, to do otherwise would be discrimination
germy
@Betty Cracker:
Nowadays it’s
“I’ll take “Don’t Care” for $500, Mayim.”
Booger
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: Not cool, dude. Not cool.
jonas
@Baud: He wasn’t pointing out Scalise’s hypocrisy — he was pointing out how Scalise was pointing out how Biden failed. And silently wondering why Biden didn’t do more to reach across the aisle.
Chief Oshkosh
@Chief Oshkosh: “rationale” = “rational”.
Waiting for the coffee to kick in…
germy
Hopeful.
Soprano2
I stumbled onto this thread about slow-moving cargo trains being robbed, and wow it’s crazy! If you didn’t get a package, this could be why. I have questions – why aren’t there locks on these containers? Why aren’t they guarded? It’s insane! https://twitter.com/johnschreiber/status/1481770722271760384
AWOL
Ten Bears insists Jews wrote the “Protocols of the Elders of Zion.” He believes this was a plot to create Israel. He is a lunatic, conspiracist, and certainly not fit to contribute to any respectable blog.
narya
I do hope there are consequences for the drama llamas. I don’t know what they might be, and I’m not going to speculate about this or that path. I will note that the lead story on Chris Hayes last night (and I think Maddow; I was starting to drift asleep) was actually the seditious conspiracy stuff. And, really, that IS huge. It’s still a heavy lift to actually convict, of course, but I was glad to see that leading rather than the senate drama. Fuck’em.
Dorothy A. Winsor
The Virginia legislature is considering a law requiring that students be taught about the debate between Abraham Lincoln and Frederick Douglass.
I hear Frederick Douglass is doing good work and is being recognized more and more.
Geminid
@germy: And Cheri Beasley is gonna help.
Chief Oshkosh
@Kalakal: The overall effect would be to put innocent people (e.g., defendants, family members, witnesses, etc.) at higher risk. It’s already happening, and has been, for nearly the entire pandemic. It is not good.
Now, if you wanted to make special rules about six of the SC justices, please do.
Spanky
@AWOL: And where was this?
germy
Cameron
@John S.: That’s kinda spooky. Last night I was talking to a buddy in Philadelphia and he said “Cameron, you’ve been there five years and nothing’s working. Time to come back to Philly.” Maybe he’s right,
Omnes Omnibus
@narya: FWIW I think that was the biggest story of the day. The potential impact of prosecutions for seditious conspiracy and where they could reach is huge.
Baud
@germy:
?
dww44
@germy: there’s no logic at all in her public utterances. Another reason supporting my belief that she is a fully owned tool of the monied and powerful. I have zero respect for such people. I get so angry when I see her I have to disconnect. Nothing good will come from my anger.
Gin & Tonic
Quoted for truth
Kalakal
@Chief Oshkosh: Yeah I know, I was being facetious. I would like it to apply to the Supreme Court though.
germy
My wife saw this and said Johnson dances like a polar bear.
Kalakal
@germy: Hah, that’s about 3 miles from where I live. I shall now live in fear of a glitter attack :)
Spanky
@germy: Exactly what about a glitter attack raises it from misdemeanor to felony?
Omnes Omnibus
@Kalakal: Everyone needs a hobby.
Kalakal
@germy: He’s a mean guitarist as well
https://images.app.goo.gl/GjYcb4aCyFBYZKsW9
New Deal democrat
Just to add to the portents of doom that seem so evident at the moment … there are increasing signs that a big economic slowdown is going to hit about midyear. That’s because consumer consumption leads employment and production, and retail sales took a nosedive in December, down over 5% in real terms since April. A recession by Election Day isn’t terribly likely, but it can’t be ruled out either.
Geminid
@Dorothy A. Winsor: A lot of people don’t know that after the judges ruled the Lincoln-Douglas debates a tie, Abraham and Frederick moved on to a round of sudden death Wordl.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Booger:
Your concern over my dark humor is noted.
Perhaps he and his supporters will be persuaded to change his ways via drum circles, pink knitted hats, giant puppets, righteous signage and multiple rounds of “Kumbaya” and “Michael, Row the Boat Ashore”.
Ocotillo
@germy: And hopefully whoever is nominated to run against Ron Johnson.
Baud
@New Deal democrat: Won’t that lower prices and fix the labor shortage everyone is complainging about?
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: Wouldn’t that be because of Omicron, and also that people got out a lot of their pent-up demand during the boom period of the summer? It seems to me like the retail situation is likely to be completely different by, say, April
Pandemics cause all kinds of wild economic disruptions, that much is clear.
Baud
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
There is nothing in between.
germy
Baud
@Matt McIrvin: Oh god, we’re going to have higher prices and labor shortages forever, aren’t we?
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Kalakal:
That was pure magic, playing below the capo.
Ramalama
@germy: I hear the glitter triage unit at the local hospital is just overwhelmed. Violence with glitter has got to stop.
Kristine
@Spanky:
That stuff gets everywhere .
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@germy:
I love their expressions.
Wonder what/who he did? And why would the guy report it? His friends will be making fun of him forever; plus, in the old days, the cops answering the report would have made fun of him too.
Omnes Omnibus
@Omnes Omnibus: Add in the prosecutions that are likely because of the fake elector slates and you really have something.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Spanky: Have you ever tried to clean up glitter?
A Ghost to Most
@John S.: Huh. Hoocudanode?
Kalakal
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: There is no beginning to his talents
narya
@Omnes Omnibus: Good. I don’t pay much attention to other outlets–I saw FYNYT had banner headlines about Scotus. Maddow read the dissent in detail last night.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Baud:
I gotta say, the multiple renditions of Kumbaya would probably have me screaming in agony by the third round. I HATE that song.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Kalakal:
I’m sure it sounded wonderful.
Baud
@Ramalama:
The only way to stop a bad guy with glitter is with a good guy with glitter.
Also, too, glitter is awful. Lock them up.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@narya:
The thing about dissents (and those stupid RBG “I Dissent” memes) – their very existence means that your position lost.
Baud
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
How did that song become equated with performative hippyism? Did the old school hippies sing it a lot?
germy
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
Kaitlin O’Donovan, 27, and Sarah Franks, 29, each stands accused of one count of felony burglary with assault or battery against a man named Jacob Colon. Franks was also charged with criminal mischief.
While the particles used in the alleged incident may be paltry in the extreme, the charges decidedly are not. Each woman faces the possibility of life in prison, according to Florida Statutes. Though the maximum sentences may be extremely unlikely to be dealt, there are plenty of examples where trivial alleged offenses were met with heavy penalties.
https://lawandcrime.com/crime/two-florida-women-are-in-more-trouble-than-you-might-think-after-allegedly-throwing-glitter-at-a-man-inside-his-apartment/
Baud
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
That’s true, but a good dissent can help explain to the public why the right-wingers are off base, beyond “we don’t like the outcome.”
Kay
I just feel like Biden is stuck in this Manchin/Sinema hole that he can’t get out of. Manchin has once again dangled that he might support one or two parts of BBB, which he isn’t going to do, so we’ll get another 3 months of Joe Biden losing to Manchin and/or Sinema. Whatever tiny part of BBB Manchin might agree to cannot be worth the political damage to the President and the Party.
Can’t Schumer do this? If “BBB” ends up being “a means-tested modification to the child tax credit” is there some reason Biden has to lead Manchin and Sinema personally for a small piece of legislation? Is this worth putting his credibility on the line again, only to have these two get (and take) another opportunity to put a loss on him?
Baud
@germy:
That’s often a function of two things: (1) recidivism and (2) race.
Dorothy A. Winsor
If you really hate someone, give their kids glitter. And a drum.
Baud
@Kay: My impression is that we’re doomed regardless, so what’s the harm?
Spanky
@Dorothy A. Winsor: It’s an apartment. You just move out.
Josie
@Dorothy A. Winsor: And one hundred tiny toy soldiers.
...now I try to be amused
@germy: You know what they say: Friends help you move; real friends go to jail with you for throwing glitter and busting shit up to get even with some low-flung dude.
Baud
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
On your point though, there is a lefty publication called “Dissent.” I haven’t read it much, but LGM often highlights it.
Mike in DC
Is Adam Silverman on a break? I haven’t seen any posts from him in about 3 weeks. Figure he’d have a lot to say about the whole “Russia fixing to kick off WW3” developments.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Baud:
I think so. I seem to remember it in snippets off of local coverage of peace stuff in the late 60s-early 70s.
Soprano2
@New Deal democrat: I saw that. Do you think it’s because of shortages, or people have everything they could ever want now, or because people have finally exhausted the pandemic money they saved over the past two years? Or a combination of all of this? The people who are complaining loudly about inflation now will completely forget about it if the economy dips this year, won’t they?
Soprano2
@Dorothy A. Winsor: That’s impossible, once it’s in your house you can never get it out. I agree, that’s a felony!
Matt McIrvin
@germy: I hate it so much when people who obviously know better pretend they don’t understand cause and effect so they can do a political grift.
Omnes Omnibus
@Spanky: It’s not the glitter; it’s the breaking into someone’s home to assault him.
Quiltingfool
@germy:
Glitter: the herpes of the craft room.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
Oh, on an interesting note – I’m filing to run in a nonpartisan judicial race for a family court slot that’s attainable. I heard a piece of info from a reliable reporter yesterday that every local incumbent nonpartisan officeholder (including judges) has been approached and told that they’d better switch their personal registration to Republican, or else opposition will be recruited and funded lavishly.
The Mayberry Machiavellis have decided that governments should be monolithic edifices staffed only by loyal Republicans.
Another Scott
@New Deal democrat:
Eh?
Warning – Politico (from 12/26):
CalculatedRiskBlog:
The first graph there doesn’t look too scary to me.
Early economic data are noisy. Things should be even better in the spring, especially if something like the BBBA passes (but even without it). We’re making incremental progress in the Pandemic (even with the Omicron nightmare at the moment), and that will continue and accelerate.
But, we’ll see.
Cheers,
Scott.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Baud:
Hippies sneered at it. It was a folkie thing.
Omnes Omnibus
@Steeplejack (phone): You are making distinctions that many will not recognize (not that you are wrong).
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus:
They’re all Boomers to me.
Geminid
@Another Scott: The spending from the Infrastructure bill will be kicking in this year, and that should buoy the economy. Also, money from the American Rescue Plan will still be flowing. For example: the Virginia General Assembly allocated $250 million to upgrading public school HVAC systems, to be matched by local ARP funds. Proposals were received by November 15 of last year, so that money will be spent this year.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: The only thing that can stop a bad guy with an economic dislocation is a good guy with an economic dislocation.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Mike in DC:
Probably. The last time I remember him posting here was that “I told you idiots so” post when Manchin first killed BBB. Adam may have been right, but it was a pretty bad look for him imo
Steeplejack (phone)
@Omnes Omnibus:
Just getting it on the record. Otherwise just say it was a “boomer thing.” That covers everything.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Baud:
Ha! Just saw this after my #101.
Omnes Omnibus
Gurdeep your Friday.
Spanky
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Yeah, he got kicked around in the comments that time. Rightly so, imo.
He has been commenting occasionally. I would guess that life interfered in the interval.
Tazj
@dww44: Yes, I have no idea why she does what she does and I’m sick of thinking about it. It’s crazy that making voting a little easier is considered partisan. No one can reasonably explain that it is. Voter fraud is virtually non existent and that’s been proven over bad over again.She presents herself as some kind of brave martyr and she’s not. Bernice King even called her out last night.
But you’re right you can’t get too angry about it because it won’t change anything.
Kim Walker
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
I seem to recall that under the last republican governor, public service workers, those applying for state jobs or who were trying to get promoted were also encouraged/shut out unless they were registered republicans.
New Deal democrat
@Soprano2: I’ll respond to a bunch of comments here. Some of the faceplant was due to people ordering in October rather than December because of fears of shortages – but not all of it. Some of it was probably Omicron, as people stayed out of crowded retail spaces.
It’s also been clear for several months that in the aggregate people have gone through their stimulus savings. So that extra cushion is gone.
While I respect Bill McBride, the fact is that year-over-year measures miss turning points. Real retail sales in December were the lowest in 10 months, and adjusted per capita, are off by a level consistent with an upcoming recession in the past.
Further, while they are just one indicator, there are several others that don’t look so good looking out past 6 months.
Omnes Omnibus
@New Deal democrat: It’s okay. By this time, most of us are used to being doomed.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@New Deal democrat:
Aww dammit. What will this mean for inflation? Hopefully that will at least ease.
Will the funds from ARP and Infrastucture Bill at least prevent some of this?
Feathers
@Baud: My memories of the 60s and 70s are marred by the memories of that song. I don’t know if it was sung by actual hippies, but it was certainly sung enough by middle and upper middle class people who considered themselves of the left. Today we’ve got if we complain about Democrats enough, the perfect world will emerge. Then it was, if we performatively love bomb and demand peace enough, hatred and greed will melt away.
patroclus
@Baud: I’m not buying this at all. There was a brief overlap (until Dylan went electric), but the folkies were more Lost Generation while the hippies are/were definitely Boomers. Just look at the deterioration of Hullabaloo, when the New Christy Minstrels became the regulars and no good hippie acts were booked. The Summer Brothers Smothers Show tried hard to resurrect the melding of folkies/hippies for a brief period, but Tom couldn’t get along with the censors…
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@patroclus: you remind me Marc Maron interviewed the Smothers brothers (The Brothers Smothers? Is that canon?) a couple weeks ago. I’m gonna cue that up for Saturday chores.
realbtl
Re Adam S- I seem to remember him saying if he got an assignment he would basically disappear. He couldn’t really say Bye folks, I’m off to work on X.
Yarrow
Isn’t there some dirt on Manchin and Sinema that they don’t want made public? Something about which someone could say to them, “Nice little secret you have there. Shame if something happened to it.”
patroclus
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I think it can all be summed up by Dylan himself in his Oscar winning song from Wonder Boys: “I used to care, but Things Have Changed.” After Manson and Altamont, things could never go back…
Gin & Tonic
@Omnes Omnibus: We’re all gonna die!
Omnes Omnibus
@Gin & Tonic: I refuse to accept that.
Just One More Canuck
@Dorothy A. Winsor: my brother got a drum for Christmas one year. Later that morning, it met a ‘tragic’ end when my dad ‘accidentally’ stepped on it while walking across the room
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@patroclus:
Oy. I fight that feeling five or six times a day.
last night I saw a bit of news that had me thinking: It must be so easy to be a normie.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus:
That’s the spirit!
danielx
@Gin & Tonic:
Sooner or later.
Gin & Tonic
@danielx: I didn’t get far enough in my actuarial exams to give you details.
Gin & Tonic
schrodingers_cat
@Baud:
That’s why you don’t make predictions with hundred percent certainty either. The future is unknown and unknowable.
narya
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: True enough. Not needing to dissent is wildly preferable, but I still appreciate a good stake in the ground if that’s all we have.
Matt McIrvin
On Dana Houle’s observation about flukes and weirdness: it seems to me that, under something like the median-voter model, a political system with two factions and some form of democratic mechanisms is going to be driven to a state where it’s perpetually on a knife edge between control by the two factions. Whenever that happens, weird irrelevant garbage is going to tip the balance much of the time.
Of course, if one of the factions is intent on eliminating democracy and just rigging things so they win forever, that is not necessarily a stable situation any more.
Miss Bianca
@Gin & Tonic: “prepositioned a group of operatives?”
Kay
@schrodingers_cat:
But no one is making predictions with “100% certainty”. They use the same metrics to estimate the midterm environment every two years- results of special elections, Presidential approval rating, the generic ballot, retirements in the majority party, economic conditions and number and distribution of senators up for reelect. They’re fairly accurate indicators, except I think they tend to underplay Democratic “wave” years – Democratics do better in a good environment than they are predicted to do.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Miss Bianca:
“Commies ready to blow up the Reichstag”, aka “ANTIFA infiltrating the patriot rally”.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Matt McIrvin:
PRI ran Mexico for several decades by this model.
Ohio Mom
@AWOL: Agree. There is a way to support Palestinian nationalism, self-determination, whatever you want to call it, as well as criticize Israel’s horrid policies without resorting to Antisemitism. Ten Bears often crosses that line.
Matt McIrvin
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: The other possibility is, the antidemocratic tweaks just make it harder and harder to win with any kind of left-of-center positions, because the voters who might support them have been neutralized, so the knife-edge of party control remains but the Democratic Party ends up being driven way to the right so that their voter base corresponds more to the people who are really allowed to vote and have it matter.
The Democratic Party has been moving left since about 2005 or so, but if they can’t win any more that way, maybe they end up moving right like they did in the 1990s. Only this time it’s not because the electorate is really there, it’s because the electorate who really count are there. And we retain the illusion of two-party democracy but it’s really a sham.
Kay
@schrodingers_cat:
And you can test it the other way, because there are years where the numbers are better- there is less “doom and gloom” in those years. It’s connected to actual events. We wouldn’t be having this discussion if Biden were at 55/60 and they were up nine on the generic ballot. We’d be saying “wow- that’s pretty good for a midterm” not because we’re optimists but because that’s pretty good for a midterm.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
You don’t think this will happen even without voter suppression? As you accurately note, we’ve been moving left since 2004, and we haven’t really gained net voters because of it. Most of our gains seem to have come from the radicalization of Republicans rather than due to our leftward movement.
Of course, given voter suppression, we may never be able to test this theory.
Miss Bianca
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: I guess I was wondering how you preposition someone, as opposed to propositioning someone. There’s a joke in there somewhere, I’m just not clever enough to tease it out.
Omnes Omnibus
@Miss Bianca: pre-position.
Ohio Mom
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Yeah, the Lincoln-Frederick Douglas debate thing is worthy of poking fun of. But it is distracting everyone from the rest of the proposed law, which is simply awful in many ways.
In my my bad moments, I wonder if the name Frederick wasn’t put in there as something of a Trojan Horse.
The Moar You Know
@New Deal democrat: I read the both of you at least weekly ever since y’all saved my 401k back in 2008/09. The numbers are what they are: recession of some magnitude on the way.
Baud
@The Moar You Know:
If so, maybe we should reconsider whether Kensian economic policy is really the right one to have.
The Moar You Know
@Miss Bianca: Putin’s taking a page right out of the Nazi playbook with this one: Gleiwitz Incident
Cacti
Long story short:
President Biden’s agenda has been effectively scuttled by a pair of Democrats.
Baud
@Cacti: Yep. Simple as that.
Gravenstone
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: He’s a case where I lament the skill and dedication of the first responders who treated him following the shooting. Fucker should’ve been left to bleed out on the field.
Kristine
The thread may be fizzling, but I thought I’d add this to the discussion anyway. One of the (way too many) newsletters I receive is The Conversation. They describe themselves as balanced. Take that as you will.
Yesterday they posted this article:
tl;dr the news isn’t all good, but it isn’t all bad either. I know it’s one article, and one set of opinions. FWIW
Citizen Alan
@cmorenc:
“What if Thurgood Marshall had not decided to step down for health reasons during the Bush I administration and held on until after the 1992 election?”
Geminid
@Matt McIrvin: If Republican voter suppression is strongest in purple and red states, it will be more likely to squeeze out Democratic voters in the center of the spectrum (if you are simplifiying voters into a linear model). Blue state voters will be less affected, and they might be considered more “left” to begin with.
But I still see the Democrats as a “center-left” party, and the composition of the House Democratic Caucus bears this out. The Republicans have become a “right” party. In this situation, people in the center tend to vote with the center left party. This is why Republicans have turned to voter suppression and election subversion. That’s the only way a rightwing party can beat a center-left coalition.
Soprano2
I’ve got a co-worker who honestly thinks people are staying out of the workforce by selling all the stuff they bought with pandemic relief money. That’s how hard it is for them to give up the “lazy people just don’t want to work” idea. I’m concerned that the Fed will respond to inflation by pushing on the brake too hard and causing a recession.
Miss Bianca
@Omnes Omnibus: Oh. Well. All righty then.
ETA: This is one of those cases where a dash between pre and position would have helped me. GRAMMAR
NAZISOPERATIVES UNITE!NotMax
@Jim, Foolish Literalist
“Normie, co-ordinate.”
//
Gravenstone
@dww44: I’ll have to dig up the link later, but a commenter on TPM shared a Tweet outlining the speculation that she’s planning a 3rd party presidential run in 24. Yeah, I realize that’s a lot of hand waving but it does cast a lot of her inanity in a different light.
The Moar You Know
@Soprano2: You and I will be hearing this bullshit argument ten years from now.
Recession’s now coming regardless. And the Fed should have raised rates back during the GWB administration, although anytime subsequent to that would have been fine too; that they have been kept as low as they have for as long as they have is economic malfeasance.
Ksmiami
Biden could immediately declare a national emergency wrt to Covid and just start doing a lot to help citizens without Sinemanchin. Then he could call both of them and say we are no longer looking for your votes and I’ve advised Schumer to remove you from all committees. Might as well go all in on the strong leader model because the nice guy stuff isn’t working
Sure Lurkalot
@Kay: It’s my around the sun anniversary and I’m giving myself a minute to be as naive as fuck.
Joe lost? Child tax credits, day and elder care, early education, increased Medicare benefits..all would help families, industries and the overall economy. Making workplaces unsafe in pandemics threaten us all. Limiting the ability to vote in ways that we do other things in modern society…like pay bills and taxes…erodes our democracy. We stand to lose those things designed to bring us a greater good.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Gravenstone: Amy Siskind. For my money a very dubious source. But Sinema’s peculiar form of crazy is a mystery to me, and I could as easily imagine her imagining Meghan McCain as John as the guiding star of her ambition
Kay
@schrodingers_cat:
I think it’s a difference in definitions.
To me, this, “The factors we always use may not look great but something good could happen” (an optimist) is just the flip side of this “the factors we always use do look great but something bad could happen” (a pessimist)
The “something could happen” part is the only part really subject to optimism or pessimism.
Central Planning
@germy: I saw one of George Wallace’s shows in Vegas years ago. He was hilarious then and is just as funny now.
Leto
Welcome to the new norm:
Eolirin
@Kay: Additionally it’s really hard to see a way for things to turn around, especially if we can’t get voting rights legislation through and have it survive a legal challenge soon enough to toss all the massively gerrymandered maps.
Maybe the Jan 6 prosecutions help sway public opinion but the right wing media bubble is pretty intense and midterms tend to be base elections. We do have some chances at senate pickups so that’s at least something to focus on. And we do need to fight for every house seat we can. But with the maps that are coming out I have no idea how we make the numbers work. Too many big blue states have measures in place to limit their ability to aggressively gerrymander to make up for the red states.
Geminid
@Ksmiami: If Chuck Schumer removes Sinema and Manchin from their committees, what’s to stop Mitch McConnell from giving them the assignments of their choice when they make him Majority Leader?
Ksmiami
@Kay: yeah he needs to end talking with them like yesterday- start issuing emergency EOs
Eolirin
@Geminid: What would it matter then? McConnell makes all the decisions for the committee chairs in his caucus anyway.
If burning them helps us win 2 of the PA, Ohio, WI and FL senate races and hold GA, it’s worth burning them.
Cacti
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Nothing mysterious about her.
Sinema grew up very poor and is primarily interested in using public office to keep herself in cash and comfort.
She went from net worth of $36,000 to millionaire in a single Senate term.
Kay
@Eolirin:
I agree about the senate. If “something is going to happen” it will happen there :)
Democrats will never do this, because it’s just not how they operate, but their best bet is Biden. Him being at 50 will do more for them than anything.
NotMax
@Sure Lurkalot
Happy solar circle day!
Kay
I think it’s a really good question. You-all have seen these cases in your states and cities- “public corruption” cases (broadly). They just had one in Toledo (city council), not election intimidation related but the feds hammered them. It is absolutely VITAL that there not be two sets of rules.
There are lots and lots of elections in the US, some of the decided by single digits. We had a school levy race that lost BY ONE. What if everyone does what Donald Trump did?
Geminid
@Eolirin: Last I saw, the new Congressional map was predicted to be a wash, if not slightly favorable to Democrats. The redistricting process is not yet compete, though (and such analyses can only be predictive of the actual results in November). I’m hoping there will be a post here in a few weeks when the new Congressional map is more certain.
prostratedragon
@Kristine: That, and sometimes it’s the thought that counts. At the end of a Fellini movie someone attacks someone else with feathers from a pillow, and the viewers both inside and outside the frame really want it to stop. But yeah, that guy is going to be vacuuming up glitter for weeks.
Eolirin
@Kay: If all the blue states were able to and proposed aggressive gerrymanders, I suspect we’d get at least 60 votes on a narrow anti gerrymandering bill that allowed the other forms of voter suppression to sneak through. We might need to actively campaign to unwind those rules until federal rules can be established. Might be the only way we’re able to take the house back this decade.
Eolirin
@Geminid: Well, if we can hold the house by some miracle, we likely have an expanded senate majority too so a lot of things suddenly become possible.
The Moar You Know
@Geminid: while I think the idea of stripping Manchin or Sinema from committees is idiotic, the reason why McConnell won’t give them jack shit for “services rendered” is that for every committee seat in the US Senate, there’s a waiting list, especially for the big seats like Appropriations and Armed Services. Seat assignments are based on seniority. If McConnell were to skip over his own people to hand those assignments to two Dems (or two newly-minted Republicans) his rule as Majority Leader would be done that very day.
Baud
@The Moar You Know:
I also question the size of the universe of non-voters who would become voters if we punished Manchin and Sinema for their obstruction.
Frankly, I think the exuberance would last about a day, and then reality would set back in and everyone would become depressed again.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Cacti: meh. We are far too quick on the Left to say “it’s all about money!” when we don’t like somebody, especially a Democrat. People are more complicated than that, especially someone who goes into politics, who want attention and affirmation of their vanity and self-image. And power.
Joe Lieberman was consistently ranked as one of the least wealthy Senators, as I recall. He didn’t resign cause he wanted to get rich, he resigned cause he didn’t think he could survive another election cycle. I think he would much rather be, in the words of his equally repulsive little friend Lindsey, “relevant” than rich. Mitt Romney didn’t get back into the arena to get rich. Joe Manchin is already a very wealthy man, and could get exponentially richer by retiring and hanging out a shingle on (proverbial) K Street. He wouldn’t even have to come to the office, just be available for lunch or dinner or a conference call a couple of times a week (I’m guessing).
Kay
@Eolirin:
For me the “something happens” usually comes in as unintended consequences of an action.
So they would gerrymander and rig so much that the only way people could bust out is statewide races-
they can have the US House and state legislatures and we get governors, Presidents, and the US Senate.
This is not a bad deal! We can work with that :)
Geminid
@Eolirin: The big blue states of Illinois and New York are expected to knock out four or more Republican seats with their new Congressional maps. The big blue state of California has an independent commission, and it’s new map left California Republicans crying.
The two blue states that passed on the opportunity for Democratic gerrymandering, by adopting independent redistricting commissions, are Colorado (8 seats, I think) and Virginia (11 seats). This lost opportunity may cost a Democratic seat in either state, but it might not cost any.
Soprano2
@The Moar You Know: Perhaps, but they could make it a lot worse. I lived through the 1980-1983 recession; we don’t want a repeat of anything like that.
Soprano2
@Ksmiami: Sure, let’s completely give up on confirming any more judges for the rest of this Congress, and set up multiple times for the Supreme Court to strike down Biden’s EO’s. But otherwise a sound strategy.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I don’t know beans about the economy and the whole “bad news is good news thing” gives me whiplash, but wouldn’t a slowdown be de-inflationary?
Baud
@Soprano2:
I don’t know. Reagan won a landslide in 1984. Maybe that’s just what Biden needs.
trollhattan
I’ve gone from “Amy who?” to a Klobuchar fanboy.
That is all.
Geminid
@The Moar You Know: McConnell’s caucus would go along if favoring Sinema and Manchin made them the majority. But it won’t happen anyway because the Democratic Caucus needs Manchin and Sinema too much to punish them, especially when they are voting right most of the time.
prostratedragon
@Gin & Tonic:
How’s that again? Should be repeated so that everyone hears it.
Kay
@Eolirin:
Too, I think there’s evidence that when Democrats say “Republicans don’t want you to vote and are trying to stop you” more Democrats come out. It’s a different message than the GOP/Trump message, which is “all elections we lose are corrupt and invalid because they cheat”. Ours puts the remedy on the voter – they can fix it by jumping thu the hoops and voting. Republicans can vote all they want- we’ll still cheat and steal it from them. You know, as is our custom.
Layer8Problem
@Baud: I’m moving my Vanguard directly into gold coins buried in the back yard, at least until Baudcoin launches.
Geminid
@Eolirin: As a practical matter, how does burning Sinema and Manchin help us win Senate seats in Florida, Wisconsin, and North Carolina? I’ve seen this asserted, but I’ve never understood how it would move real voters.
I could see it hurting Mark Kelly in Arizona, though.
prostratedragon
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Usually is. That’s the general idea behind the Fed raising its interest rate.
Kay
@trollhattan:
I always liked her. She’s solid. She’s involved in the ECA count “reform” discussions which is the one and only reason I think we’re protected there. Thank fucking God the mean lady is at the table.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@trollhattan: her campaign launch was a rolling clustefuck, but… yeah.
sherparick
@germy:
Shamelessness is the Republican Superpower.
The Moar You Know
@Geminid: Erm, no, they would not. You’re asking someone to forego an opportunity that ends up with them becoming one of the most rich and powerful people in the world. No Senator, no matter the reason, is going to consent to that for any reason whatsoever.
Somewhat on topic: If Manchin or Sinema truly wanted to switch parties, they start as rookies. Which is why Sinema (who IS a rookie anyway) is far more of a risk for switching than Manchin, who serves as Chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, serves on the Senate Committee on Appropriations, the Senate Committee on Armed Services, and the Senate Committee on Veterans’ Affairs.
He’s got Appropriations AND Armed Services. Not one but two “brass rings”. He will never, ever switch parties.
topclimber
@Soprano2: A recession under Republicans is harder to endure than a muchh worse one under Dems.
Baud
@sherparick:
It’s because people just don’t seem to care. They’ve accepted the reality that Republicans are awful people and decide it’s not worth fighting about. Contrast that with the national controversy that surrounds anyone loosely associated with the Democratic party saying or doing something that could be viewed as coloring outside normative lines.
I don’t know how we fix that problem.
Geminid
@Kay: Also, a lot of Independent voters really don’t like voter suppression and gerrymandering. With their hyperpartisan tactics, Republicans are alienating a group they really need.
Gin & Tonic
@Layer8Problem: I may have told this story, but a long time ago a friend and adviser of my father’s, like him a survivor of pre-WWII Europe, believed in physical assets (i.e. gold) which at the time was limited to Krugerrands. When my father was dying and liquidating his business, this guy came by a few times and was very cognizant of the “benefit” of planning one’s death.
A few years later he died suddenly and unexpectedly. Within a few weeks, his widow started calling everyone he’d known to see if anyone might have an idea where the safe deposit box with the Krugerrands was.
I don’t know how the story went from there. But the moral is to let someone you trust know where you buried the gold.
Gin & Tonic
@prostratedragon: It’s a WaPo story now, so the intelligence community is doing its part to get it “out there.”
The idea is to have Russian agent/saboteurs, who can travel freely in the occupied Donbas areas, attack Russian assets there under the pretense they are Ukrainian agents/saboteurs, and thus provoke further Russian incursion.
Geminid
@The Moar You Know: Well, the original premise of this argument was that Chuck Schumer would strip Manchin of his commitee assignments. But it’s not worth going round and round about something that will not hapoen anyway.
Layer8Problem
@The Moar You Know: Recession’s been coming Any Day Now, for years. Prediction: it will. But no one knows the day or the hour.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Gin & Tonic: legend has it they never found WC Fields’ safety deposit boxes stuffed with cash, and registered under fake names. I recently heard a similar story about I forget which boxer
Soprano2
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yes, it would, but I guarantee you that the minute it started to happen all the people who are currently saying inflation is the worst thing ever would pivot to “higher unemployment is the worst thing ever” with no shame at all, and Biden would get no credit from them for stopping inflation.
Kay
@Geminid:
The good government groups in Ohio had a beautiful slogan “voters should choose politicians, politicians shouldn’t choose voters”
I agree it’s popular. Rigged maps are almost impossible to defend other than for partisan advantage. It’s kind of tailor made for “independents” and less attached voters.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Geminid: and the short version is: There are no “hard ball politics” or weird tricks or thunderbolts of cosmic justice that are going to get us out of this. There is only the next round of elections, which bracing reality I’m told is “insufficient” and often “insulting”.
One thing I’m curious about as we went through the last week of intra-left sniping: How many times did you hear the name “Brian Kemp” mentioned amid all the outrage?
Soprano2
@Baud: Both inflation and unemployment were around 10% when Reagan was elected; the recession brought that inflation down. Try to borrow money to buy a car when the Federal Funds rate is around 10%. I bought my first used car from a new car lot, and the interest rate on my loan with a co-signer in 1983 was 16%. Younger people today have no idea what that was like, it was absolutely horrible for the average person.
Kay
@Soprano2:
It really was bad. My first mortage was 13. Admittedly it was insane for them to give it to me, so that might have been a factor :)
A good bet! I made the payments until I thankfully unloaded it on someone who could actually afford a house.
emmyelle
I’m all in for bunny rabbits and ice cream, tho
Anyway
@Geminid:
Do normies know that republicans are doing that? I think that’s something that people who read lefty (or top 10,000 Dem) Blogs know — not out in the mainstream.
Leto
@Gin & Tonic: @Layer8Problem: this basically sounds like Vern, from Stand by Me, digging for the pennies he buried under his front porch, all summer long. Still never found them.
germy
“I like Senator McConnell. But here’s the question: Can Senator McConnell effectively work with the leader of the Republican Party, Donald Trump? … I’m not going to vote for anybody for leader of the Senate as a Republican unless they can prove to me that they can advocate an America First agenda and have a working relationship with President Trump, because if you can’t do that, you will fail.”
(Lindsey Graham)
Geminid
@Anyway: You may be undestimating the awareness and sensibility of voters who are not like you. If you are, you would not be the only one.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@germy: starting to think Lindsey may be speculating on some fancy Capitol Hill real estate……
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@topclimber: Your financial suffering is because you’re not in tight with my personal lord ‘n savior Jesus Christ, like I am.
Suck it – suffer.
germy
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Here’s the clip:
dww44
@Gravenstone: Who among us thinks she has the qualities and character to run for President, even on a Third party ticket? Most voters don’t know who she is. Based on her fund raising trips since she’s been in the Senate, I say it is about money and power with her. Not about desire to serve people, not the everyday little people anyways.
Shalimar
@germy: I don’t get where the burglary comes in, though I have not read the Florida statutory definition since I took the Bar decades ago.
They assaulted him with glitter, went in through the balcony, opened the locked front door from the inside, battered him with glitter some more, then broke a window to escape.
So there is trespassing, assault, battery, and destruction of property. The story doesn’t reference them taking anything.
Brachiator
@The Moar You Know:
Idiots keep magnifying the amount of money available and ignore every story about what relief money was used for.
Typically, most stimulus money was used for debt payments, saving, food, health and durable goods.
People used the money to improve their lives. This is not complicated.
Also,
Isn’t that called starting a small business? Why does your friend hate capitalism?
Suzanne
@Cacti:
Agreed.
The other thing about her is that she is of the generation that sees politics and public office as another form of celebrity and influence. So she is incredibly conscious of imagecraft, branding, positioning, personal identity. One of the many things that firms do when they are branding themselves is differentiation. (Think about it: if you’re in the grocery-selling business, how do you make yourself different from all the other grocery stores?) So all of her bullshit is about identifying what she thinks in an underserved political constituency and attempting to position herself in their direction. While enriching herself.
Suzanne
@Brachiator: Also…. selling stuff they bought with pandemic relief money? So they’re selling it at a loss? Why would anyone buy a bunch of stuff and resell it at a loss if they’re trying to make a profit?
Why, it’s almost like the dickholes making these sort of assertions have no idea what they’re talking about!
Anyway
@Geminid:
Happy to be wrong in this instance. In my experience voter suppression is never discussed in terms of roadblocks to voting for certain (legal) demographics in mostly red states — it gets bandied about as dead people voting in Chicago or ID…
I was a pollworker for primary and general elections in 2020 and my republican acquaintances all wanted to know if we checked voter ID – nothing else.
Geminid
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: From “Black Professor:”
You might like Mr. Professor. A Hampton University graduate, he works in the NYC public schools. In his off hours he stands up for Democrats, and for Beyonce’.
Soprano2
I know that, but come and tell my co-worker who is absolutely convinced that once they unload all the huge TV’s and game consoles they bought with their “Biden bucks” they’ll be forced to get back in the work force (he’s not the only one who thinks this, either). Oh, and they also spent it on alcohol, cigarettes, and drugs. *rolleyes* I know how stupid it is, but this is what they honestly believe. They have no idea that used TV’s aren’t worth anything anymore.
Soprano2
No, it’s the idea that they’re having to sell it now because they don’t want to work at a job, so it’s a desperate attempt to stay out of the work force. It’s not that they’re trying to make a profit on anything. Many people I know truly believe this stupid idea. They’ll entertain any idea other than “the pandemic really fucked up the job market, and it’s going to take a long time for it to get to a new normal where places aren’t chronically understaffed”.
Layer8Problem
@Leto: Never happen. First, GPS will never fail. Second, if GPS fails my stable of gold-trained truffle-hunting pigs stand ready.
Geminid
@Anyway: When people who could vote early, by mail or absentee ballot, find out they no longer can, they notice. When they see other people waiting hours in line to vote, all but the most partisan Republicans know it’s wrong. And when their state legislative or Congressional district is bizarrely shaped they resent it. They don’t have to be liberal or partisan Democrats to react this way
Now, I’m not talking about Republicans here. But Independents run at about 30% of the electorate, and many are repelled by hyper-partisan tactics like those Republicans are employing. Less partisan Republicans who dislike voting restrictions may grin and bear it, but that party risks alienating a group of voters without which they cannot win in purple states, and in some red states for that matter.
Omnes Omnibus
@Shalimar: Burglary is generally unlawful entry with the intent to commit another crime. The other crime is commonly a theft offense.
Suzanne
@Soprano2: Tyler Cowen points out that electronics over six months old aren’t worth anything. Also, who cares if people are selling their stuff? That’s actually….. good! That’s a small business.
lowtechcyclist
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
Gas range or electric?
I too find that, when I’m pissed at the world (or rather at all the RWNJs in it), taking out my emotions in a flurry of cooking is a useful outlet.
RaflW
@dww44: She strikes me very much as a person who never figured out what her core values are or what grounds her. Reading about how she’s cast about from political identity to political identity in earlier reporting, and then seeing that she’s claimed to be an atheist, but now wears a cross neclace?
Yeah, she’s adrift and, seemingly, uninterested in or unable to do the sort of internal work that settles oneself in a stable and effective self-awareness and self-posession.
It’s not uncommon. And adrift people can make all sorts of bad choices. I think about the comfortably off ‘yoga gals’ who fell for Qanon. They’re aware enough to go seeking, but take commercial strip mall yoga that is about the body but not the spirit. Then the ‘fitness’ influencers swing in.
Kirsten seems very much like that. But her influencers could easily be Kocksuckers or Putin puppets.
Suzanne
@RaflW: Sinema grew up LDS (Mormon). A lot of times, when people fall out of that church, especially the women, they get kind of showy, for lack of a better word. Her behavior seems very much in line with that, IMO.
Suzanne
@RaflW: Also, just for clarity, her name is Kyrsten, as opposed to the other blonde lady Senator, Kirsten Gillibrand.
And the former Secretary of Homeland Security, Kirstjen Nielsen.
RaflW
@lowtechcyclist: Oh, for an Amana Radarange.
It was such a classic in design and naming.
@Suzanne: Thanks. I was vaguely aware I might have misspelled her name, but I feel such white hot rage I didn’t even want to google her. Blergh. (My mom was named Kerstin, which in her native tongue sounds most like “SHUSH-tin” so I could stand to be a bit more thoughtful.)
James E Powell
@Geminid:
Republicans in nearly every state are confident that when they vote, independents won’t remember or won’t care very much about voter suppression. I’d argue that nearly every person who is voting will take their personal experience as evidence that there are no barriers to voting.
James E Powell
@Shalimar:
810.02 Burglary.—
(1)(a) For offenses committed on or before July 1, 2001, “burglary” means entering or remaining in a dwelling, a structure, or a conveyance with the intent to commit an offense therein, unless the premises are at the time open to the public or the defendant is licensed or invited to enter or remain.
Geminid
@James E Powell: Republicans clearly are confident they won’t pay a price for voter suppression by alienating winnable voters. They are confident about a lot of stuff that may not be true. And a lot of their new restrictions dont just affect “other” voters, they affect all voters.* If I were a Republican and a realist, I would recognize the factor of blowback in a group without which I can only win in the reddest of states.
But the people who call the shots in that party now are not realists. They are creating conditions under which the only way they can win elections is by stealing them. They may or may not suceed, but they will piss off more than just partisan Democrats in the process.
*see #221 above.
TheTruffle
@Kay: I’ve followed Angry White House Staffer on Twitter, and that person thinks BBB and voting rights will pass eventually but not as soon as people would like.
Ruckus
@Soprano2:
It might just be me but the 2008-2012 (or whatever it’s called) recession was far worse than the 80-83. In 2012 I lost a business, and ended up with $200 to my name, and no place to live. The prospect of living in an empty packing crate or under a bush by the side of the road really did not appeal to me. Fortunately I had a friend who took me in. Many, many people did not. The number of people living rough where I was by the middle of 2011 went from zero 2 yrs earlier to a very noticeable number. And that was in the wealthiest county in CA.
No One You Know
@Baud: Flukes and weirdness.
Sometimes these are also grouped under “character.”