Took me less than a minute to order four free rapid antigen COVID tests right from the post office. Zero cost, not even shipping. You should too. https://t.co/M6HqO71hgf
— zeddy (@Zeddary) January 18, 2022
I’ve ordered mine — you should, too!
Some enterprising journalist should track which Senators, members of Congress, & governors are telling their constituents how to order COVID tests, & seeing if Repubs are refusing to publicize something easy, free, in demand, & that can help prevent illness & death.
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) January 19, 2022
The number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US has started to fall, from a peak 7-day moving average of over 808,000 per day on January 13 to just over 670,000 yesterday. pic.twitter.com/sVS4VTZmBs
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) January 18, 2022
The daily Covid death toll in the US has declined slightly to 1,670 deaths per day, after rising last week. pic.twitter.com/TEGJdUanI2
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) January 18, 2022
The latest "Nowcast" from @CDCgov suggests Omicron has pretty much swept the table. https://t.co/BAwPhsyPwW pic.twitter.com/WJkXYiHfs6
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) January 18, 2022
======
A look at "confirmed" Covid deaths versus models estimating mortality at several times the recorded number of pandemic deaths pic.twitter.com/ydxJ1iuXoJ
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 18, 2022
China reports fewest daily local confirmed COVID-19 cases in two weeks https://t.co/eBLLL9KBjg pic.twitter.com/P6uIVA7vh7
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 19, 2022
#BREAKING: Hong Kong to eradicate all hamsters for sales. City authorities stop the import of such rodents after 11 were tested positive for COVID-19 in a pet shop in Causeway Bay. All animals from that pet shop will be “disposed of,” as well as all hamsters for sale in the city.
— Ezra Cheung (@ezracheungtoto) January 18, 2022
Afraid the hamster(s) have already escaped that habitrail…
An estimated 2,000 animals will be culled after being tested for COVID-19. The decision is made after health officials reported two more human infections related to the pet store in Causeway Bay, where the owner was diagnosed with Delta infection earlier.
— Ezra Cheung (@ezracheungtoto) January 18, 2022
South Korea: Daily cases back above 4,000 amid omicron woes https://t.co/E1T2Xw4i9U
— Crawford Kilian (@Crof) January 18, 2022
Tokyo and a dozen other areas will be placed under new restrictions for COVID-19 effective Friday, allowing local leaders to shorten hours for eateries, as a surge in omicron cases threatens to paralyze society. https://t.co/JSgufk8nXw
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 19, 2022
Vietnam detects first Omicron cases in the community -state media https://t.co/UvjW6cPGRH pic.twitter.com/3emcfI9lM8
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 19, 2022
In actuality, Israel makes an excellent case for vaccination, including boosters:
1. Despite skyrocketing covid cases, deaths remain almost flat
2. Among those over 60, severe cases are overwhelmingly among the unvaccinated, with the boosted doing better than those with 2 doses pic.twitter.com/jo6xqqpkaK— Yair Rosenberg (@Yair_Rosenberg) January 19, 2022
Russia reported 33,899 new Covid-19 infections, the most in six weeks, as Omicron becomes the dominant strain of the virus in Moscowhttps://t.co/XyE0DkyZTd
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) January 19, 2022
Russia is shortening the required isolation period for people infected with COVID-19 from 14 days to seven. https://t.co/c0paY7Q56H
— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) January 18, 2022
Germany surpasses 100,000 daily COVID-19 cases for first time https://t.co/zuAO6hFP7H pic.twitter.com/UWhDkvs6Zc
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 19, 2022
Police in Germany are investigating thousands of cases of suspected forgery of COVID-19 vaccine certificates. German news agency dpa reports that numbers rose sharply last month, after new restrictions largely lock unvaccinated people out of public life. https://t.co/n0AVVsTari
— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) January 19, 2022
More than 900 Covid deaths recorded in England and Wales in first week of January https://t.co/k0CvNOtIAP
— Guardian World (@guardianworld) January 18, 2022
Britain reports 438 new COVID-19 deaths, highest since February https://t.co/iRVA5gQadu pic.twitter.com/5y060dcTqz
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 19, 2022
UK PM Boris Johnson expected to ease England's Covid restrictions https://t.co/hiIXi3YiRK
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) January 19, 2022
Brazil reports record daily COVID-19 infections as Omicron spreads https://t.co/Z0YCTVuf9K pic.twitter.com/iIg9w0sYuV
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 19, 2022
======
Caution: Pfizer's new oral Covid drug—Paxlovid—interacts w/ many heart meds. The antiviral received emergency-use approval in December for patients at high risk of severe illness. People w/ hypertension, Afib & other heart issues should know the risks https://t.co/XFCcEsq5Ti
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 18, 2022
It's been a bit of a mystery here how decisions about updating Covid vaccines will be made. I can shed some light: @US_FDA plans to be part of an international effort to coordinate the updating of vaccine strains. https://t.co/SqJCkNsgvv
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) January 18, 2022
WHO says there's no evidence healthy children or teens need Covid boosters. Chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan said while there seems to be some waning of vaccine immunity against #OmicronVariant, more research is required to ascertain who needs boosters https://t.co/3Ge1utXcqY pic.twitter.com/41Z2vJ2mte
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 18, 2022
======
The Omicron surge hasn't peaked nationwide, which means additional stress on understaffed hospitals in the grip of a highly contagious virus https://t.co/eoW3D98j6a
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 19, 2022
Oh, and since FL officials have been crowing about NY's high case rate — while discouraging testing to suppress their own numbers — worth noting that even so FL now > NY 2/ pic.twitter.com/3Me0RVhSed
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) January 18, 2022
Oklahoma City hospitals are short of staff and overwhelmed, with no ICU or inpatient beds available as the Omicron variant causes a surge of Covid-19 patients, according to an open letter from leaders of the city's four major health care systems https://t.co/rYnYQyZRE4
— CNN (@CNN) January 18, 2022
Arkansas inmates sue over Covid treatment with horse dewormer https://t.co/iBRicEE08l
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) January 18, 2022
These people didn't want to be vaccinated long before mandates and passports were even a thing. https://t.co/9AOG1CUsSd
— AdotSad (@AdotSad) January 19, 2022
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
There were 447 new laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of 1/18. There were 790 new positive home tests reported as of 1/18.
Deaths up to 1644 now. There is no breakdown on vaccinated versus unvaccinated for new deaths.
179 cases are hospitalized; 66% are not vaccinated.
33 cases are in the ICU, 25 of those are also intubated.79% of those in the ICU are unvaccinated.
Steeplejack (phone)
One ICU doctor’s experience with a COVID patient. (Twitter thread.)
Link to accompanying Post story.
raven
I had two left and I wasn’t feeling great so I took one and came up negative. I’m sure people can’t wait to chime in and tell me they don’t work but what the hell!
NotMax
FYI.
Cermet
@Steeplejack (phone): Always tragic – why I never desire that end for anyone. Sad, if vaxxed the story would have been vastly different but freedum.
Cermet
@raven: Smart move; better to check! I remember my Lyme disease test was negative and I was really sick and had the bullseye rash so of course got treated; tests aren’t perfect and the body doesn’t produce enough antibodies for most Lyme tests until days after the infection (They don’t mention that.)
NotMax
Slovenia now is country number 69 to report a cumulative total in excess of 500k cases.
Steeplejack
Iconic fashion editor André Leon Talley is dead at 73.
Steeplejack
@Steeplejack:
ETA: No apparent link to COVID. Just using this as the current open thread.
YY_Sima Qian
On 1/16 China reported 55 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Shaanxi Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 111 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There are currently 738 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.
At Yuncheng in Shanxi Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case, a person arrived from Xi’an in Shaanxi.
Guangdong Province reported 7 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 43 active domestic confirmed & 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Guangxi “Autonomous” Region there currently are 12 active domestic confirmed (11 at Dongxing in Fangchenggang & 1 at Ningming County in Chongzuo) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Chongzuo) cases in the province.
Tianjin Municipality reported 14 new domestic confirmed cases (2 previously asymptomatic, 12 mild & 2 moderate, 13 at Jinnan District), all from persons already under centralized quarantine. There currently are 326 active domestic confirmed & 12 active domestic asymptomatic cases (all presumed Omicron) in the city (306 at Jinnan District, 12 at Qingxi District, 6 at Hexi District & 1 each at Hongqiao & Dongli Districts). 7 residential compounds have been elevated to High Risk & 10 to Medium Risk. 12 residential compounds are currently at High Risk. 23 residential compounds & 3 villages are currently at Medium Risk.
Beijing Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed (Omicron) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic (Delta) cases, a traced close contact of the domestic confirmed case reported on 1/15 & 1 found via mandatory screening from inter-regional travel. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed (all Omicron) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (Delta) cases in the city, suspected to be seeded by international post.
Dalian in Liaoning Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases (all Omicron) in the city, part of the transmission chain from Tianjin.
At Shanghai Municipality 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 20 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 shop is currently at Medium Risk.
At Jiangsu Province there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Nanjing) & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases (both at Wuxi) in the province.
At Zhejiang Province 8 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 97 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases (at Hangzhou) in the province. A factory & a village at Jinhua remain at Medium Risk.
At Xiamen in Fujian Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining, a quarantine hotel worker.
Henan Province reported 33 new domestic confirmed cases. 2 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 358 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.
At Yunnan Province there currently are 7 active domestic confirmed (2 at Dehong Prefecture & 5 at Kunming) & 3 active domestic asymptomatic (1 at Dehong Prefecture & 2 at Sipsongpanna Prefecture) cases in the province.
Imported Cases
On 1/16, China reported 32 new imported confirmed cases (2 previously asymptomatic), 35 imported asymptomatic cases, 5 imported suspect cases:
Overall in China, 163 confirmed cases recovered (42 imported), 26 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (25 imported) & 4 were reclassified as confirmed cases (2 imported), & 2,556 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 3,454 active confirmed cases in the country (1,275 imported), 15 in serious condition (all domestic), 767 active asymptomatic cases (717 imported), 11 suspect cases (all imported). 57,290 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 1/16, 2,947.136M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 5.025M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 1/17, Hong Kong reported 16 new positive cases (12 are suspected to be Omicron), 9 imported & 7 domestic (5 are traced close contacts & 2 w/o sources of infection identified, yet).
On 1/17, Taiwan reported 54 new positive cases, 44 imported (10 from the US, 6 from the Philippines, 3 from the UAE, 18 yet to be published) & 10 domestic (1 w/o source of infection identified, yet).
debbie
@Steeplejack (phone):
? Fuck these people who don’t take this seriously.
debbie
@raven:
Good thing you weren’t on Twitter last night. “I worry the tests won’t work because it’s so cold outside.”
raven
@debbie: I worried my double mask wouldn’t work at the National Championship Superspreader but not enough not to go!
Mousebumples
@raven: only future testing suggestion I have for you (and others) is to do a throat + nasal swab with Omicron so highly prevalent.
No official CDC recommendations as such, but the epidemiologists i follow on Twitter say that’s more likely to give you a positive test (**if you have covid) as Omicron is more in the chest than sinuses, I guess
And if your symptoms continue, i think they recommend retesting in a few days? I can’t remember current guidelines this early in the am, but like 5 days after a known or expected exposure, maybe?
Steeplejack
I’ve got a dilemma coming up. My birthday is next week, and my brother has texted me about having a (small) party. I realize that, not really by design, my primary COVID strategy so far has been isolation, and I have to admit that the Sighthound Hall mob is probably my main point of exposure: two kids in elementary school, my brother’s husband working as a teacher in a D.C. school. They’re all vaxed and boosted to whatever the current standard is (dunno if kids are getting boosters), but my brother and the BIL caught mild breakthrough cases back in the fall.
I realize that Omicron is “mild,” but as a geezer I’m at the bad end of the demographic distribution. It may be true that “everyone’s going to get it,” but I’d prefer to put off that day as long as possible, like maybe until I have a good shot at a hospital bed if I need it, rather than a gurney in the hall somewhere.
I told my brother maybe we can do something the following weekend, but I’m not even sure about that. But at the same time I’m wondering if I’m being too timorous. The problem is that nothing is clear until after the fact. Either “Boy, we really overreacted to that Omicron thing” or “Well, Uncle Steep had a good life—we’ll miss him!” Or just “I caught a mild case like everybody else.”
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
OzarkHillbilly
Hey Soprano, in light of the overflowing OKC hospitals, how are the hospitals in Springfield/Joplin?
debbie
@Steeplejack:
I passed on meeting two lifelong friends for lunch for my birthday (between Thanksgiving and Christmas). I miss them both loads, but it’s just not worth getting sick.
Suzanne
@Steeplejack: You have just described the exact process of every decision I make right now. I have been electing to go with some limited fun, but I don’t know if that’s rational. It is probably magical thinking. I have had a mildly sore throat for a few days, but that is also very normal for me when the air is very dry and cold, as it is right now. No other symptoms. I am sure that, were you to get it, it would be mild. But I also understand not wanting to fuck around.
frosty
@Steeplejack: Skip the party this year. Your reasoning is solid. Omicron is still rampant; a friend who’s more cautious than me got it at the end of December. I’m with you on “everybody gets it”. Thanks , I’ll wait my turn, you all go ahead.
sab
@Steeplejack: That is sad.
His Aunt Georgia was my mom’s mother’s helper when she was a teenager and I was a toddler. We still remember her fondly. My first big personal loss when she left me to go home to college.
Mousebumples
@Steeplejack: is it warm enough where you are to meet outside (eg at a park or in a backyard) for a stretch? Might be an in between sort of get together option then?
frosty
@Suzanne: I’m with you on calibrating limited fun. I’ve been playing guitar with a friend all last year and we even did an open mic in December. I haven’t even jammed with him since.
It’s not stopping us from our upcoming Snowbird Road Trip though. We’ve made it the last two years, but February in Florida with Omicron???
WereBear
@Mousebumples: That’s good advice, thanks!
Jay
@Steeplejack:
Maybe, outdoors.
Saw some old friends last week. We all had pho, ( take out), parked in the annex lot behind the Amoury, took up 8 parking spots in an empty lot, ate in our lawnchairs, well distanced, chatted while listening to tunes on the car stereo’s.
WereBear
@Steeplejack: Hey, it’s YOUR birthday. Postpone it for a bit longer, even. So you can enjoy it, right?
If they want a get together, let them get together and then you can call in :)
I have passed up more social invitations, even from people who are careful, simply because there were too many ways this can go wrong…
Steeplejack
@Mousebumples:
We’re in NoVA, currently in the icy grip of actual winter weather (currently 32°, threat of light snow tomorrow morning). It’s not important enough to me to go to extreme measures just to “get together.” I can wait to see them. My current strategy is to see how things look after Omicron supposedly peaks in the next week or two.
Suzanne
@frosty: I have been going to yoga classes. Indoors yes, but masked, and the room has a giant HEPA filter that goes across the ceiling, and it is very hot and steamy in there. That has really been the extent of my fun during this insanity. I’m sure it isn’t risk-free, but it has been so good for managing the hamster wheel of anxiety that this pandemic has brought to my mind. And my body feels much better after long days of WFH. So I don’t think there are absolute right answers, we’re all doing the best we can.
raven
@Mousebumples: Yea, I ran the swab in my throat a bit but probably not enough. I have one more left here and the gov’s on the way.
New Deal democrat
Internationally, cases are declining in all of the earliest hard hit countries – South Africa, the U.K., Ireland, Israel, and Canada- except for Portugal and Denmark, where they are still rising, but much more slowly. In South Africa, 4 weeks after the peak, cases are down 80% to the level they were at 2.5 weeks before the peak. In the U.K. they are down 45% from peak to the level they were at 12 days before the peak. Deaths are still rising in all of those countries except for South Africa, where they have plateaued.
Nationwide in the US, after the post-MLK data dump, cases are still slightly below their level from last week, and are below their daily peak in all 4 Census regions. CA is now decreasing, which is a big factor in the West’s plateau. Deaths continue to increase slowly.
Now here is a really interesting data point: 2 States where cases are still increasing at a significant rate are HI and VT, two of the most vaccinated States in the country (vs. PR, where cases are solidly in decline). HI was hit early; VT is the only Northeastern State still increasing.
Meanwhile, the invaluable Charles Gaba reports that:
https://acasignups.net/22/01/17/weekly-update-month-omicron-its-still-whole-new-ballgamebut-theres-already-hints-revert
“Case rates have gone from being 2.1x higher in the least-vaccinated counties to being 2.1x higher in the most-vaccinated counties”
And “The case rate ratio is a very different picture under Omicron. For the first month of Omicron, case rates are 1.9x higher in the bluest decile than the reddest.”
In both cases, the rates are not so high as one week ago.
This is of a piece with Portugal, with 90% fully vaccinated, but a severe and still rising Omicron outbreak.
Meanwhile, a number of US States with low vaccination rates, but which were hit hard by Delta – including MI, IA, SD, MO, MT, ID, FL, AR, AL, KY, LA, MS, and WV – appear to be peaking or have already peaked; and at levels generally somewhat lower than most of the States that were less hard hit by Delta.
If this holds up, it would mean that recent infection by Delta is protective against Omicron – in fact, more protective than at least un-boosted vaccination.
Since the US is never going to get to 90% vaccination, the second best scenario is that the unvaccinated develop enough resistance to ameliorate future outbreaks. The data above is evidence in favor of that scenario.
New Deal democrat
@frosty: “
@frosty:
“February in Florida with Omicron???”
If your friend is named Colonel Mustard or Miss Scarlet, for all that is holy DON’T GO!!!
YY_Sima Qian
Beijing just reported a new cluster of 5 cases, all cold chain logistics workers at a warehouse, found via regular weekly screening, 3 of whom started developing symptoms from 1/16, 1/17 & 1/18, respectively. The test results show mutations associated w/ the Delta Variant.
The 3 clusters found in Beijing in recent days are located in Haidian District in NW of the city, Chaoyang District in the eastern part of the city, & Fangshan/Fengtai Districts in the SW suburbs (the cold chain warehouse is in Fangshan District). These clusters may well be separate introductions.
Soprano2
@OzarkHillbilly: Not great, Mercy is almost 80% full and Cox is similar. Cases are the highest they’ve ever been – the 7-day count per 100,000 is over 1,000, which is much higher than any previous wave. Of course, we have counties down here where the vax rate is around 25%, so that contributes to it a lot. I don’t know if they’re getting patients from OK, but it wouldn’t surprise me
ETA – our local public school closed down for the whole rest of the week due to staff and student absences. IMHO they shouldn’t have come back from Christmas break for 2 more weeks.
Cameron
@NotMax: Jesus. The country only has a population of about 2 million.
OzarkHillbilly
@Soprano2: Don’t know where our hospitals are on the occupancy scale up here, but they’re still letting me in for PT.
WereBear
@OzarkHillbilly: Glad to hear you can get medical care.
laura
Sending out well wishes for Amir Khalid.
Sloane Ranger
So, BoJo has announced the ending of all COVID restrictions, including masking, w.e.f. next Thursday. This was met with hysterical cheering from the Tory backbenches, especially the bit about masks. Why conservatives are so upset about wearing a simple piece of cloth when meeting others I will probably never understand. The media were expecting the mask mandate to remain, so this came out of the blue. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if the decision to end the mask mandate was a purely political one by BoJo to try to shore up his position, given that more and more Tories are calling for him to step down and we had a Tory backbencher defecting to Labour today. The sad part is Labour are supporting BoJo’s announcement. I usually support Keir Starmer’s decisions when Tony Jay etc. criticise him but here, I think he has made a mistake and should have put some distance between Labour and the government. I am particularly worried about the ending of the mask mandate. I live in an area where we are well below the national average in regard to vaccinations, with only 73.2% having had 2 jabs and 57.4% boosted and I know that, not only will the majority throw away their masks but, they will use the ending of restrictions as an excuse as to why they no longer need to be vaccinated.
Anyway, Tuesday, we had 94,432 new cases. This is a decrease of 38.9% in the rolling 7-day average. New cases by nation,
England – 84,987 (up 10,738)
Northern Ireland – 4081 (up 786)
Scotland – 3507 (up 597)
Wales – 1857 (down 2118).
Deaths – There were 438 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday. This is an increase of 14.7% in the rolling 7-day average. 400 deaths were in England, 6 in Northern Ireland, 31 in Scotland and 1 in Wales.
Tests – 1,363,401 tests took place on Monday, 17th. The rolling 7-day average is down 22.5%.
Hospitalisations – There were 19,450 people in hospital and 713 on ventilators on Monday, 17th. The 7- day average for hospital admissions was down 2.9% as of 14th January.
Vaccinations – As of Monday, 17th, 52,133,611 people had received 1 shot of a vaccine, 47,989,635 had had 2 and 36,546,583 had had a 3rd shot/booster. In percentage terms this means that, 90.7% of all UK residents aged 12+ have had 1 shot, 83.4% had had 2 shots and 63.6% had had a 3rd shot/booster.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: When watching for very recent peaks, we need to watch out for the distorting effect of the long MLK Day weekend on weekly averages. MA’s averages look to have been artificially depressed by that at the beginning of this week.
Scout211
California is sending 21 million N95 masks to schools.
So 7 counties decided they don’t need any high quality masks for students and staff? It’s cute that the article added “so far.”
Matt McIrvin
@raven: It’s not so much that they don’t work, it’s that they’re pretty good at detecting whether you’re shedding enough virus to be contagious… but, especially with Omicron, and especially if you’re vaccinated so your immune system is primed to fight, you might start feeling symptoms before that point, when the rapid tests will still come up negative. Which is why they sometimes tell you to take a second test a few days later.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: …Looking at it county-by-county, if I had to guess, I’d say those low-vaccination red areas have actually not peaked yet, and what we’re seeing is not some extra protective effect of Delta infection over vaccination, it’s just the same pattern as with previous waves: urban blue areas get hit first, rural areas later.
Antivaxxers are trying very hard to convey the lie that Omicron is only dangerous to vaccinated people, so it’s important to check twice with any seemingly paradoxical effects.
New Deal democrat
@Matt McIrvin:
“it’s just the same pattern as with previous waves: urban blue areas get hit first, rural areas later.”
I considered that. If cases in rural areas were still increasing sharply, I would agree. But they appear to be peaking, so I rejected that idea. We’ll see in about a week.
Barbara
@Steeplejack: Don’t do it. Pick some other day — maybe the Vernal Equinox if that works out or whatever other day and have a party for everyone who has missed a birthday celebration over the last year.
smith
@New Deal democrat: I don’t think either urban-rural or high vax – low vax comparisons can account for the current trends across states. The ten states with the highest population-adjusted number of cases right now are RI, WI, VT, UT, HI, NC, DE, AR, AZ. I can’t see any clear pattern of urban vs rural in that list. At the county level, the CDC shows that both urban and rural counties show a very recent downturn in cases, but that could be an artifact of the MLK holiday.
The rates of vaccination (% of the whole population with 2 doses) in this group range from 52% to 78.6%. Currently the median % for 2-dose vaxxed in the 50 states plus DC is right about 60%. Four of these states are below the median, 6 are above. There might be a county-level effect of vax rate, but I don’t have easy access to that data.
My own opinion is that we’re in a transitional period vis a vis the omicron surge, causing a lot of wobbliness in trend lines, and we’ll have to wait for the dust to settle before searching out any pattern among the states.
Matt McIrvin
@smith: There’s also just the fact that if you get COVID and you don’t get sick enough to seek medical attention, whether that case shows up in stats at all depends on your willingness to get tested and report a positive result, which probably varies a lot by region.
Bill Arnold
Semi-technical review of the current (as of today) state of rapid tests (in the US) for SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Antigen Tests: Real World Data (Katelyn Jetelina, 2022/01/18)
TL;DR Rapid tests have a very low false positive rate; assume infected if positive result. False negative rate is higher, and significant if there is rampant community spread. Multiple tests (spaced a bit; like 1/2 day + though she doesn’t say) will reduce the effective false negative rate.
WaterGirl
@laura: Every day now the first thing I do on the covid thread is search for Amir’s name, hoping that he has left a comment.
Mike in Pasadena
Although I hope I never have to use them, I ordered the 4 free tests from covidtests dot gov. My neice living in Arizona received a note from me asking her to order some. Word may be suppressed in red states. Kidding. Sort of. (But did send her a text re ordering tests. She and partner have two under five girls so they are very concerned.)
StringOnAStick
I read in the local news source this morning that the infections in this county (Deschutes, central Oregon) are 1 in 15 testing as positive. The crowds in town over the MLK weekend and at the ski area were large enough that it suddenly seems quiet here.
Some good news: the planned ReAwaken America rally that was to be held a the county fairgrounds indoors in April has been moved to Salem after the Xtian nutjobs running this Gen Flynn-associated shitshow refused to require masks, as it said in the contract they signed. Even better? They are refusing to refund ticket prices ($250 at the top, $100 middle, maybe a few gratis tickets if you proved your need in person), or honor them at the new venue. I wonder how many times they can pull this grift?
StringOnAStick
@WaterGirl: I keep hoping to see he’s posted too. My concern is growing every day.
WaterGirl
@Steeplejack: Easy answer, Steep. Just tell him that you would love to have a party and you’ll take him up on his kind offer as soon as you feel that your party wouldn’t put anyone at risk.
WaterGirl
@StringOnAStick: Me, too. It felt like about 10 days, and that was concerting, but when I realized yesterday that it had been 2 weeks I crossed the line into worrying.
Come on Amir, whatever’s going on, fight hard and come back to us.
laura
@WaterGirl: So dear, so missed, so very far away.
Steeplejack (phone)
Thanks to everyone who commented on my dilemma. Just writing about it helped me to focus my thoughts, and your comments helped me resolve to skip a birthday celebration until things become (much) clearer than they are now.
dopey-o
You may want to postpone your bout of Omicron until such time when you can have 2 ICU nurses at your beck and call. Much better outcomes when the staff isn’t stretched thin and over worked.
That might be April.
IdahoGoatGirl
I know this is late in the day but I have been thinking of Amir a lot and wondering how we might be able to find someone local to him that knows something. I found this facebook page that I thought might be his, but I am not sure. Is there anyone out there that knows the language that might be able to contact someone from this friends list to find out if this is our Amir and if so, how he is doing?https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100061260014166