St George testing the dragon for covid pic.twitter.com/TzGTsHwtXv
— Art History Memes for Aesthetic Teens (@ArtMemeLord) January 18, 2022
ICYMI: You can now request the 4 free covid test kits from the fed gov't via phone.
* Call: 800-232-0233
* TTY: 888-720-7489Please share with those you know who are not online.
— Mark D. Levine (@MarkLevineNYC) January 20, 2022
I'm late to see this ?, sorry.
The calculations of the percentage of people in the US who have & will be infected in this wave are staggering.
The final tweet in this thread gives me pause. Is Omicron a foreshadowing of Covid season once it becomes endemic? https://t.co/yAOkk4hIzn— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) January 20, 2022
There may be a longer tail of circulation after the peak (as seen in South Africa), but a rough expectation would have an equivalent number of cases in the next 4 weeks on the other side of the peak. This would suggest 36-46% of the US infected by Omicron by mid-Feb. 7/9
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) January 20, 2022
My big question now is to what extent will Omicron-like emergence events characterize "endemic" circulation of SARS-CoV-2? Given it occurred once, having it occur again would not be at all surprising, but I don't know whether to expect this every year or every ten. 9/9
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) January 20, 2022
I stand in solidarity with our nurses. They’re the true heroes at the bedside.
This @nytopinion video explains why nursing is in crisis. Patient ratios were unsustainable pre-pandemic. Covid and the ‘business of medicine’ has only made their jobs harder. pic.twitter.com/DSSISsFRRL
— Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) January 20, 2022
======
China daily local confirmed COVID cases fall to nearly two-month low https://t.co/c3EyUHeoT7 pic.twitter.com/BL3AaTJaCD
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 21, 2022
China is limiting the torch relay for the Winter Olympics to only three days amid coronavirus worries. Officials say the flame will be displayed only in enclosed venues that are deemed “safe and controllable." https://t.co/7bHRlTznb7
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 21, 2022
Hong Kong warns people to stop trying to prevent COVID hamster cull https://t.co/37a8NJKvf3 pic.twitter.com/PSXO5uQXI6
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 21, 2022
Indian capital to lift weekend curfew as COVID cases fall – source https://t.co/hRYxmwagcQ pic.twitter.com/aDtbj5D03k
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 21, 2022
Pakistan records most daily COVID cases since pandemic began https://t.co/PyGA6Rgrpa pic.twitter.com/opZdAQq7Ln
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 21, 2022
Restaurants and bars will close early in Tokyo and a dozen other areas across Japan as the country widens COVID-19 restrictions due to the omicron variant causing cases to surge to new highs in metropolitan areas. https://t.co/VzI8USSDCN
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 21, 2022
Malaysia resumes ticket sales for quarantine-free travel to Singapore https://t.co/qtcOw4XylC pic.twitter.com/ld8WUeVUWt
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 21, 2022
"We have to bring the vaccines to them."
Getting #Covid19 shots to distant places has become one of the pandemic's biggest challenges. @dreocalonzo joins a team of health workers to vaccinate those in remote islands of the Philippines https://t.co/bH64QGwNZn pic.twitter.com/WTtuqT994F
— Bloomberg Quicktake (@Quicktake) January 19, 2022
Zero-Covid island nation of Tonga fears aid could bring in virus https://t.co/r5GzvOjKr7
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) January 20, 2022
As aid trickles into the South Pacific nation of Tonga, devastated by a volcanic eruption and tsunami, an Australian aid flight was forced to return to base due to a positive COVID-19 case onboard, a defense official said https://t.co/RlJwvzCAJ0
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 21, 2022
Russia reported its highest number of coronavirus cases in two months on Thursday, with new infections setting record highs in the two largest cities of Moscow and St. Petersburghttps://t.co/R0BqCsGRKp
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) January 20, 2022
EXPLAINER: Why global health officials are saying it's premature for some European countries such as Spain to begin making plans to treat COVID-19 as an “endemic” disease, warning that the world is nowhere close to declaring the pandemic over. https://t.co/j8XwUJQ63I
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 20, 2022
Poland reports record daily COVID cases as Omicron spreads https://t.co/Oew8rMgtbW pic.twitter.com/LM3Dhzanys
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 21, 2022
Austrian parliament approves mandatory Covid vaccination order https://t.co/y8hFzhAWsv
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) January 21, 2022
German health min sees possible tripling of COVID infections by mid-Feb -sources https://t.co/VoNLL85ElN pic.twitter.com/1lacXqdtbp
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 21, 2022
Ireland set to rapidly drop almost all COVID-19 restrictions https://t.co/Co4Lc8hCS8 pic.twitter.com/wDMG550v48
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 21, 2022
======
Very similar pattern for age 50-64
44-fold reduction of hospitalization for vaccination
Booster benefit consistent,at every time point, but gradient vs 2-shot less pronounced than age 65+ pic.twitter.com/Rzg15Ivz5r— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) January 21, 2022
Antibodies in the blood soon after Covid onset may predict disease severity. By analyzing antibodies from study participants the day of their Covid test & 28 days later, differences were found between those who developed severe symptoms & those who didn't https://t.co/IcPvz1Ig5a
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 20, 2022
In development: Scientists report progress on a potential broad-spectrum anti-coronavirus 'cocktail' therapy. Oral administration of the cocktail suppresses the viral replication cycle, reduces viral loads in the lungs & ameliorates virus-induced pneumonia https://t.co/a8a5XhR3YI pic.twitter.com/h5hwYI515E
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 20, 2022
======
California would allow children age 12 and up to be vaccinated without their parents’ consent, the youngest age of any state, under a state senator's proposal. Alabama allows such decisions at age 14, Oregon at 15, Rhode Island and South Carolina at 16. https://t.co/UCgq04UcAY
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 21, 2022
Neighboring states moving in opposite Omicron case spread directions
Wisconsin heading to #1
Michigan now 2nd lowest (above ME) pic.twitter.com/yKYSy65aYt— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) January 20, 2022
This is going to be the solution to Covid lots of states choose: out of sight, out of mind. They’re going to stop testing ppl even when they’ve had close contacts with infected ppl. And some red states will almost certainly soon stop reporting Covid deaths on a regular basis. https://t.co/9V1vgR5HDR
— James Surowiecki (@JamesSurowiecki) January 20, 2022
.@Pontifex told all Catholics to get the vaccine, so idk what ReLigiOuS eXeMpTiOn you're speaking of. #bospoli https://t.co/SWGye0qwLh
— chip goines (@chipgoines) January 19, 2022
Novak Djokovic visa denied because he could have inspired anti-vax Australians, court says https://t.co/WXxEPJ89Q3
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) January 20, 2022
An American Airlines flight to London returned to Miami less than an hour into the flight after a passenger refused to follow the federal requirement to wear a face mask, according to the airline. https://t.co/DYW7iSnhT6
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 20, 2022
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
There were 881 new laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 on 1/20.
NotMax
Locally,
Also,
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Good god, between the whole Lincoln-Douglass Debate BS and and now this COVID stuff, I bet those idiot indies who voted for Youngkin regret or soon will regret their vote.
Youngkin is acting like he’s the governor of a bright red Republican-controlled state and not a purple state that’s been trending blue for the last 10+ years
satby
Even with MS and medications that suppress immunity, my vaxxed and boosted sister is feeling fine after five days. Her assisted living facility is pretty good with covid protocols, so I’m assuming her exposure was minimal to begin with for her to shake it off so fast. She was grateful* all the good wishes!
* need moar coffee for spelling module to kick in.
Baud
@satby:
?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@satby:
Glad to hear it : )
Kristine
@satby: best wishes for continued good news.
lowtechcyclist
Too bad he can’t be recalled. And thank goodness the Virginia Senate is still in Dem hands.
debbie
@satby:
Great news!
Steeplejack
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
A lot of normies don’t follow the news as closely as we do, and they probably don’t even know this stuff is happening. And they won’t until some bit of Youngkin asshattery directly bites them in the ass.
Baud
@Steeplejack:
This.
debbie
Statistically ignorant question: Is “50-fold reduction” the same thing as “50 times” more or less likely?
YY_Sima Qian
On 1/20 China reported 23 new domestic confirmed (none previously asymptomatic) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Shaanxi Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases. 89 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There are currently 510 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.
At Yuncheng in Shanxi Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case, a person arrived from Xi’an in Shaanxi.
Guangdong Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 59 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Guangxi “Autonomous” Region 2 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 9 active domestic confirmed (8 at Dongxing in Fangchenggang & 1 at Ningming County in Chongzuo) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Chongzuo) cases in the province.
Tianjin Municipality reported 8 new domestic confirmed cases (all mild, all at Jinnan District), all from persons already under centralized quarantine. The city did not find any cases in the community from the 4th round of mass screening. There currently are 348 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases (all presumed Omicron) in the city (328 at Jinnan District, 12 at Qingxi District, 6 at Hexi District & 1 each at Hongqiao & Dongli Districts). 12 residential compounds are currently at High Risk. 23 residential compounds & 3 villages are currently at Medium Risk.
Beijing Municipality reported 5 new domestic confirmed cases (2 mild & 3 moderate), 3 are cold chain logistics workers, part of the cluster of 5 positive reported on 1/19 (all found via weekly screening) & 2 are there traced close contacts. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed cases (3 Omicron & 8 Delta in 3 separate clusters, likely via 3 different introductions) in the city. 1 residential compound & 1 warehouse have been elevated to Medium Risk.
At Dalian in Liaoning Province there currently are 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases (all Omicron) in the city, part of the transmission chain from Tianjin.
At Shanghai Municipality there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 20 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 shop is currently at Medium Risk.
At Jiangsu Province there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Nanjing) & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases (both at Wuxi) in the province.
At Zhejiang Province 7 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 78 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. A factory & a village at Jinhua remain at Medium Risk.
Henan Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases. 19 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 953 active domestic confirmed cases in the province. As the province does not break down the recovered cases by location, I can no longer track the counts of actives cases at different cities in the province.
Mengla in Sipsongpanna Prefecture, Yunnan Province reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 1 found during screening at hospital intake & the other is a traced close contact. 1 domestic asymptomatic cases was released from isolation. There currently are 7 active domestic confirmed (2 at Dehong Prefecture & 5 at Kunming) & 4 active domestic asymptomatic (all at Sipsongpanna Prefecture) cases in the province.
Imported Cases
On 1/20, China reported 50 new imported confirmed cases (2 previously asymptomatic), 29 imported asymptomatic cases, 1 imported suspect case:
Overall in China, 197 confirmed cases recovered (82 imported), 19 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (17 imported) & 2 were reclassified as confirmed cases (all imported), & 5,215 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 3,173 active confirmed cases in the country (1,212 imported), 12 in serious condition (all domestic), 765 active asymptomatic cases (720 imported), 5 suspect cases (all imported). 55,263 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 1/20, 2,956.218M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 4.732M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 1/21, Hong Kong reported 24 new positive cases (most are suspected to be Omicron), 6 imported & 18 domestic (2 do not have sources of infection identified, yet). Another 20 cases are preliminarily positive.
On 1/21, Taiwan reported 78 new positive cases, 45 imported (10 from the US, 3 from Vietnam, 2 each from Australia & France, & 1 each from Paraguay & Saudi Arabia, 5 yet to be published) & 23 domestic (including 10 cases at a new cluster at Kaohsiung).
SiubhanDuinne
@satby:
Good news about your sister!
Steeplejack
@satby:
Good news about your sister!
Today’s news is making me think that Omicron is not peaking yet? It’s hard to make sense of the fire hose of information.
I wrote a somewhat detailed e-mail to my brother yesterday explaining why getting together is still on hold and that, to be honest, the Sighthound Hall mob is my main point of potential exposure (two kids in elementary school, one parent teaching in an elementary school). Haven’t heard back.
Dog Mom
Question for the legal minds out there – can the maskless passenger be sued by the other passengers for the delay (or any other inconvenience)? Just curious. .
And Satby – good to hear about your sister – what a relief for you!
Spanky
Been 2 (?) weeks since we last heard from Amir.
satby
Thanks all! Yes, I’m relieved for her.
@Spanky: and I presume WG’s email to him wasn’t answered. IIRC, he’s an older gentleman with cardiac issues, so a longer stay than he expected in a hospital isn’t that uncommon; but it is worrisome.
We’re all thinking/ praying/ sending best wishes Amir!
New Deal democrat
Internationally, cases continue to decline more or less sharply in South Africa, the U.K., Ireland, Israel, and Canada, although deaths are still rising in all cases except South Africa.
On the other hand, cases are still rising in Denmark and Portugal, more than 2 months after their current wave started. It’s possible that Omicron piggybacked on a rising Delta wave in both cases; however, in the former over 80% of the population is vaccinated, and in the latter over 90%. These two countries are cautions that not everywhere has followed the South African model, as is the State of Hawaii, where cases also continue to rise about 6 weeks after the current wave started.
Otherwise, in the US, cases are only up 10% or more in the past week in the States of AK, AL, AZ, HI, ID, KS, MT, KY, LA, NE, NV, NM, ND, OK, SC, TN, UT, WV, and WY. In all other States and in PR and DC they are flat to declining, and are declining sharply in all of the early hard hit States except for HI as mentioned above. Both nationally and in the Northeast, South, and West Census regions they have peaked. Only the Midwest shows a continued increase.
Hospitals have peaked simultaneously with cases, which suggests either a capacity or triage issue, and/or people are reluctant to seek treatment there. ICU admissions are still slowly increasing. Deaths increased to. 1853, a 3+ month high.
I am increasingly comfortable with the fact that Omicron has peaked in the US, about 5 months after onset. Hospitals will remain under severe strain for several more weeks. Deaths will likely peak in late February at under 2500.
Beyond that the situation very much depends on whether and when the next unusual variant hits, and how much resistance has been obtained by the vast unvaccinated idiot population in the US.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Steeplejack:
Granted. I assume it won’t be long given he’s such an arrogant asswipe
Dorothy A. Winsor
@debbie: I’m guessing that means 1/50, but I stumble over that every time I read about something being, frex, 20 times less likely.
Mike E
::waves:: from purple trending NC with a red TEA legislature, nearly all red congressional peeps and a Sisyphus-dem governor :-(
Baud
I was told there’d be no math.
debbie
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Thanks. I barely made it past algebra, so this stuff drives me nuts.
OzarkHillbilly
Clothing brand Carhartt in conservative crosshairs for issuing vaccine directive
I suddenly feel the need to go buy some more Carhartt t-shirts and that mid-weight jacket I’ve been eyeing for a while now.
Kay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Watching Sinema’s polling fall is a lot of fun.
In this one she’s at 8% with Democrats.
Baud
@Kay:
One of the few times that I find low Dem poll numbers to be justified.
Brachiator
@satby:
Great news.
OzarkHillbilly
@satby: Glad to hear it.
Quinerly
@Spanky: I’m following threads so sporadically. So l am not up to date on comments. Still no word from Amir? I just hate it when commenters just disappear and we never know what happened. We lost Mnem and CornerStone… I guess they just stopped commenting and “poof” they are gone. And btw, where is Adam?
Steeplejack
@Spanky:
Last message from Amir was in a thread on January 3 (Tuesday the 4th his time).
Spanky
@Kay: Sigh. If only she cared…
Steeplejack
@satby:
Yes, he said several times in the past that he was “medically retired.”
lowtechcyclist
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
That phrasing has been bugging the hell out of me. I’m sure by a ‘twentyfold decrease’ or ’20 times less likely’ they mean 1/20 of the incidence or likelihood. But I’d never seen it before reading some of the tweets in these threads, and ’20 times’ in this context normally means you multiply, not divide. Same way with -fold. So a decrease of more than onefold shouldn’t be possible.
Spanky
@Quinerly: It was on the AM covid post a couple of weeks ago that Amir announced that he would be in hospital “for a few days” and would be unable to post. And no word since then.
ETA and what Steep said.
Quinerly
@OzarkHillbilly: l forgot to take my beat around dog walking coat on that last trip. Realized it in Santa Fe in Oct when truly unpacked in the rental. Treated myself to a really cool Carhartt coat… Loads of pockets. I felt funny about buying it but love that color. Had figured they were rightwingers. So Carhartt is doing the correct thing and Starbucks isn’t. We are in an upside down world.
Matt McIrvin
@Steeplejack:
It depends entirely on where you are. In Massachusetts, the new case counts and the wastewater counts clearly show that we’re past peak infection. But the disease takes time to play out and I know a lot of people who are sick right now. The death counts probably haven’t peaked yet.
Quinerly
@Spanky: l saw that. Just had wondered if anyone had heard from him since. Sounds like Watergirl reached out and no updates.
Ohio Mom
@debbie: I asked the resident math nerd: Ohio Dad says 50 fold is “not a scientific term.”
Taking it literally, as he is wont to do, he says it is 2 out of a 100 (or 1 out of 50, as DW said). But he points out that since the source of that statistic is so imprecise, using a non-scientific term, who knows what they meant.
I’ll add that earlier this morning he shared he saw a sign outside a 5/3rd Bank that they are now offering a credit card with 1.67% cash back. “Get it? That’s five divided by three!” Then soberly added that he doubted very many people would get the significance of that amount.
Steeplejack
@Baud:
I was told there would be 10 times less math!
Kay
@Spanky:
A brilliant strategy. Now she just has to find enough Republicans and Independents to replace all the Democrats.
Steeplejack
@lowtechcyclist:
Yes, “x times” and “-fold” constructions are not optimal for discussing decreases.
mrmoshpotato
I hope they literally threw this asshole out of the plane (after it landed and taxied.)
mrmoshpotato
@satby:
? Great to hear!
Fair Economist
@YY_Sima Qian: At this point, I’d say China has demonstrated it is possible to hold even Omicron in check. New Zealand, too. Pretty relevant when arguing with the “let it rip, it’s hopeless crowd”.
Soprano2
I think what Suroweicki says is correct. Conservative states are going to decide that for them Covid is over, and they will quit encouraging testing and reporting of cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Large cities will probably still report, but the rural areas will go completely dark. Of course, schools will still have to close due to illness, and some businesses will close or struggle due to lack of help, and hospitals will still be overrun, but at least they can say like our governor did that the Covid state of emergency is over and everything is mostly back to normal. *rolleyes* It’s a perverse incentive. Like Trump said, they think if you don’t test you don’t have cases so why are you testing so much?
sab
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Me too. My husband thinks I am nuts, but every time he tries to explain why 50 times fewer makes sense he gets tangled up in the numbers.
Soprano2
@Fair Economist: OH c’mon, the only way to hold Omicron in check is to lock everyone in their houses the minute a case happens, and even then China keeps having small outbreaks. Where other than a brutal dictatorship would that be possible? There is no way anything like that could EVER be done in a Western country, especially after two years of this (perhaps possible at the beginning when we didn’t actually know what it was and people were terrified of dying). The only places that can actually keep something like Omicron in check are island countries with relatively small populations. That’s the main reason New Zealand has done as well as it has. Let’s not be unrealistic about what’s actually possible. There’s a lot of space between “Lock 14 million people in their houses for three weeks” and “Let ‘er rip”.
Quinerly
@mrmoshpotato: was a woman, I think l read.
Matt McIrvin
@Soprano2: A bunch of Western countries (not the US) managed something close to that in the first, really deadly outbreak, but as a lot of public-health experts have said, in anything other than an authoritarian society you basically get one shot at hard lockdown. Once you open up, people won’t go back. And the US blew it on much less anyway.
I’ve been more isolated over the past month than I was before, but I’m not even personally back to spring 2020 protocols.
debbie
@Ohio Mom:
Thanks. I think I’ll stick with “by a lot.” ?
Fifth Third does that all the time. Its cuteness evaporated long ago.
Scout211
@mrmoshpotato:
@Quinerly:
From a Miami TV station report it was actually a couple and the woman was the disruptive one. She was not arrested, though, just put on the no-fly list
Cermet
From google on fold (decrease):
Divide the original amount by the new amount to determine the fold change for a decrease. For instance, if you have 20 grams of water at the beginning of an experiment and end up with 4 grams, divide the original number (20) by the new (4) and note the answer as a negative result. In this case, 20/4 = -5 fold.
Kalakal
Grandaughter tested positive for Covid 4 days ago. Poor mite is mildly ill but basically ok. Daughter, SIL and grandson all negative. Whole family vaxxed and boosted etc. She found the attention rather fun at first as shes never felt that unwell but is now very bored and unhappy. She’ll be 8 in 2 weeks so she’s going to have a very special birthday
smith
@Kay: It seems Sinema has found the sweet spot: Too crazy to be a Dem, not crazy enough to be a Rep. I look forward to not watching her when she launches the TV career she’s been promised after her term ends. That’s assuming of course that she’s an honest politician and stays bought.
Miss Bianca
@mrmoshpotato: I was wondering whether the other patients might not have decided to beat
himher up (while masked, of course).laura
Sending well wishes out to Amir Khalid. Get well soon. Come back. You are missed.
Sloane Ranger
Thursday in the UK we had 107,364 new cases. This is a decrease of 32.8% in the rolling 7-day average. New cases by nation,
England – 95,974 (down 571)
Northern Ireland – 3879 (down 572)
Scotland – 4743 (down 194)
Wales – 2768 (up 632).
Looking at the graphs, it seems, to my eye, that case numbers are declining, but at a much slower rate than over the past week or so.
Deaths – There were 330 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday. This is an increase of 1.8% in the rolling 7- day average. 280 deaths were in England, 2 in Northern Ireland, 27 in Scotland and 21 in Wales.
Testing – 1,539,546 tests took place on Wednesday, 19th. This is a decrease of 16.1% in the rolling 7-day average.
Hospitalisations – There were 18,494 people in hospital and 675 on ventilators on Wednesday, 19th. As of 16th January the 7-day average for hospital admissions was down by 7.2%.
Vaccinations – As of Wednesday, 19th, 52,168,592 people had had 1 shot of a vaccine, 48,048,962 had had 2, and 36,688,441 had had a 3rd shot/booster. In percentages, this means that 90.7% of the UK population aged 12+ had had 1 shot, 83.6% had had 2 and 63.8% had had a 3rd shot/booster.
WaterGirl
I think about Amir every day.
I’m pretty sure the answer will be ‘no’, but is anyone here Facebook friends with Amir?
Kent
But this stuff gets messy when you start talking about percentages. For example:
If you go from 100 to 75 that is a 25% decrease.
However if you go from 75 to 100 that is a 33% increase.
WaterGirl
@Steeplejack: You made the right choice, Steep. Your bro is a doctor, right? If he gets miffed because you are being prudent instead of irresponsible, he’ll just have to get over it.
Thor Heyerdahl
@Fair Economist: pre- Olympic and post- Olympic response… will one be like the other?
YY_Sima Qian
@Soprano2: You don’t have to go the extent that China has, you can follow Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea, which so far has been able to prevent a rapid escalation of Omicron cases. Whether that just means a slower ramp remains to be seen, but they might be able to suppress the peak enough so as to not overwhelm hospitals & reduce disruption to services & businesses.
I personally prefer China’s elimination strategy, which means almost pre-pandemic normal (aside from international travel) > 90% of the time just about everywhere & > 95% in most places, & the mental health that comes w/ it for everyone involved. I am relieved that the measures appear to be still viable against Omicron even in winter.
YY_Sima Qian
@Fair Economist: NZ has not yet faced a community outbreak of Omicron cases at the scale of the Delta outbreak in Auckland. NZ government has already said they will not lock down if there is community transmission of Omicron, & will only resort to mitigation measures. So NZ will not attempt to eliminate Omicron outbreaks.
I am frankly surprised (pleasantly) at the situation in Tianjin. They had an Omicron case traveling to Anyang in Henan Province at the end of December, seeding an outbreak there 2 weeks before Tianjin discovered theirs. Given the transmissivity of Omicron, the > 2 weeks of cryptic transmission in the community, & it being cold winter in Tianjin, I was expecting the worst. Instead, the city has apparently contained the outbreak at < 400 cases, the vast majority w/in Jinnan District, & w/o resorting to the city-wide or district-wide toughest level of lock down. Anyang appears to be getting there too, kept the vast majority of cases to Tangyin County, though it has been slower going. I gather from Chinese social media that no Wuhan/Xi’an level of lock down has been imposed on all of Tangyin County (most of the cases being concentrated in 1 boarding school). 1 person from each family is allowed 2 hrs outside of their compounds to purchase necessities. As there are volunteers during the day to monitor their time outside, the streets of Tangyin is largely empty during that time. However, as volunteers go home at night, people start to venture out, & take the opportunity to chit-chat & socialize. The authorities had to clamp down & restrict residents to their homes in hot spot villages a few days ago.
I am also relieved that mass screening campaigns has not proven to be a significant vector for Omicron transmission, so one of the key pillars of China’s strategy remain viable.
I think a major factor for Omicron outcompeting Delta so rapidly is its immunity escape properties. As Chinese response does not factor in vaccination status at all, it may be less affected.
Nevertheless, China may have benefited from the push in Nov./Dec. to fully vaccinate the elderly & rolling out boosters for those that were fully vaccinated in the 1st half of the year. Over 2K active domestic cases & just over a dozen serious cases that requires hospitalization (meaning oxygen support), & I believe 2 – 3 critical cases that require intubation in ICU. > 1.2K active imported cases & not a single serious or critical case. Omicron does appear to be milder, & the vaccines are effective at drastically reducing the worst outcomes. (Note: The vulnerable septua- & octogenarians are not likely to be flying into China at this time.)
randal m sexton
@New Deal democrat: do you mean 5 weeks or 5 months?
Bill Arnold
@Matt McIrvin:
My main change is using N95 masks (actually one mask, reused for a long while; working from home) and insisting on mask usage whenever it is in my power to do so, including at home if there are untested visitors.
That’s actually stronger than spring 2020 measures for me; was using a dust mask at the time, much better than a cloth mask probably (it was well-fitted, low leakage) but not an N95.
China is making a big bet on almost no long-COVID health burden in their population relative to almost all other countries. Probably intentionally, IMO. The let-it-rip/done with COVID people are forcing the rest of the world to be the control arm in that experiment. Personally, I’m avoiding SARS-CoV-2 infection to reduce the probability of certain long-COVID outcomes like “brain fog” (very real!), kidney damage, heart arrhythmias (have always (since childhood) had intermittent bouts of PVCs; don’t want them worse). Not looking forward to being forced by selfish psychopaths to play slow Russian Roulette every new wave of SARS-CoV-2 variant. If these damages accumulate, expectations of healthy old age will drop, a lot, unless we have a universal vaccine for the entire SARS-CoV-2 tree and future virus lineages. The increases in national healthcare spending could be huge, and if so, fiscal conservatives will start floating policies that reduce health care for the unhealthy.
StringOnAStick
The county positive rate is higher than it’s ever been here in central Oregon; 1 in 15 here are a positive, active case. And of course in the red tilted town just to the north, the school board and the screaming parents who show up for their meetings were first going to sue the state over the mask mandate, but instead have sent a strongly worded letter to the Governor. The state health authority has decided that once the mask mandate expires in early February they are going to change it to mandated for the time being. TL;DR: positive cases are higher than they’ve ever been by a LOT, and yet the wingnuts in Redmond want the schools to stop masking, and 3 of the 4 idiots on the school board agreed.
Matt McIrvin
@Bill Arnold: Oh, yes, I’ve upped my mask game considerably. In spring 2020 I was using homemade cloth masks–the very first one I used, on a terrifying trip to the grocery store before most people were wearing them at all, was literally a ripped-up T-shirt and probably provided me with zero protection. For a while we were using some fairly well-fitting commercial cloth ones with replaceable paper filters in them. Now it’s N95s or go home. But I haven’t ceased in-person shopping like I eventually did then.
I was greatly encouraged by the recent Israeli preprint suggesting that being fully vaccinated provides fairly strong protection against long COVID. But more corroboration would be welcome.
JustRuss
I’m quarantining today, waiting for test results. Two friends of mine are positive, spent time with both of them recently. One of them’s unvaxxed because “she just doesn’t want the vaccine”. Doesn’t have health insurance either. I don’t see this going well for her.
New Deal democrat
@randal m sexton: 5 weeks; sorry for the mistake.
sab
@Steeplejack: You made the right choice. My sister and BIL have been extremely careful throughout except for contact with their elementary school grandchildren. Today I got a message that all of them now have very mild covid.
You wouldn’t want to be home in quarantine or isolation when the doctor’s office gets a cancellation.
Steeplejack
@WaterGirl:
Thanks.
Steeplejack
@sab:
Thanks. I’m comfortable with no contact for the time being.
My ill-fated doctor’s appointment has already been rescheduled for February 22. I decided to let it go at that. I’m not having any problems, just somewhat impatient with the process.