Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Oh FFS you might as well trust a 6-year-old with a flamethrower.

Fucking consultants! (of the political variety)

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

There are times when telling just part of the truth is effectively a lie.

Not all heroes wear capes.

Republicans don’t lie to be believed, they lie to be repeated.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

Speaker Mike Johnson is a vile traitor to the House and the Constitution.

Since we are repeating ourselves, let me just say fuck that.

the 10% who apparently lack object permanence

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Balloon Juice, where there is always someone who will say you’re doing it wrong.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

If America since Jan 2025 hasn’t broken your heart, you haven’t loved her enough.

If you’re gonna whine, it’s time to resign!

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

With all due respect and assumptions of good faith, please fuck off into the sun.

We can’t confuse what’s necessary to win elections with the policies that we want to implement when we do.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 20-21

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 20-21

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73Comments

  2. 2.

    NotMax

    Locally,

    Hawaii Department of Health officials today reported nine new coronavirus-related deaths and 5,911 new confirmed and probable infections statewide, bringing the state’s totals since the start of the pandemic to 1,135 fatalities and 190,678 cases.
    [snip]
    Today’s new confirmed and probable infection count by island includes 3,901 new cases on Oahu, 567 on Hawaii island, 996 on Maui, 276 on Kauai, 43 on Molokai, 28 on Lanai and 100 Hawaii residents diagnosed outside the state. Source

    Also,

    The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency on Wednesday announced the advance of $47.9 million in federal funds to help pay for health care workers from abroad to help hospitals struggling with staffing shortages due to COVID-19 during the omicron surge.

    The amount is half of the $95.8 million sought by the state at the request of the Healthcare Association of Hawaii to bring 955 medical personnel to the isles contracted through ProLink Healthcare from this month through April 1.

    But the rest is expected to be reimbursed, according to HI-EMA, which managed the emergency funding request.

    Both the Hawaii Department of Health and HI-EMA asked for an advance of 50% of the funding to expedite payment to the contracted medical personnel, mostly nurses, but also respiratory therapists and others, whose services are in high demand nationwide as coronavirus infections skyrocket to new highs. Source

  3. 3.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    Good god, between the whole Lincoln-Douglass Debate BS and and now this COVID stuff, I bet those idiot indies who voted for Youngkin regret or soon will regret their vote.

    Youngkin is acting like he’s the governor of a bright red Republican-controlled state and not a purple state that’s been trending blue for the last 10+ years

  4. 4.

    satby

    Even with MS and medications that suppress immunity, my vaxxed and boosted sister is feeling fine after five days. Her assisted living facility is pretty good with covid protocols, so I’m assuming her exposure was minimal to begin with for her to shake it off so fast. She was grateful* all the good wishes!

    * need moar coffee for spelling module to kick in.

  8. 8.

    lowtechcyclist

    New Youngkin executive order on health care: “The Governor will discourage mass testing for the purposes of pre-screening, discourage asymptomatic individuals from testing, and urge healthy individuals with mild symptoms to stay home and use discretion on testing.”

    Too bad he can’t be recalled.  And thank goodness the Virginia Senate is still in Dem hands.

  10. 10.

    Steeplejack

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    A lot of normies don’t follow the news as closely as we do, and they probably don’t even know this stuff is happening. And they won’t until some bit of Youngkin asshattery directly bites them in the ass.

  12. 12.

    debbie

    Statistically ignorant question: Is “50-fold reduction”  the same thing as “50 times” more or less likely?

  13. 13.

    YY_Sima Qian

    On 1/20 China reported 23 new domestic confirmed (none previously asymptomatic) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases.

    Shaanxi Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases. 89 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There are currently 510 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.

    • Xi’an reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases, 1 from persons under centralized quarantine, 1 from regular screening of pandemic response personnel in “closed loop” & 1 from mass screening of areas under lock down. 89 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 509 active confirmed cases in the city. 1 sub-district remains at High Risk. 4 sub-districts have been re-designated to Low Risk. 5 sub-districts remain at Medium Risk.
    • At Weinan there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining.

    At Yuncheng in Shanxi Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case, a person arrived from Xi’an in Shaanxi.

    Guangdong Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 59 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

    • Shenzhen did not report new domestic positive cases. There currently are 17 active domestic confirmed (2 Omicron) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, all but 1 in the same transmission chain. 1 residential compound & 3 residential buildings are currently at Medium Risk.
    • Zhuhai reported 4 new domestic confirmed cases, all at Nanping Township, all traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine. There currently are 29 active domestic confirmed & 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases (all presumed Omicron) in the city, all part of the same transmission chain. 3 residential buildings are currently at Medium Risk. 
    • At Zhongshan there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases (both Omicron) in the city, part of the same transmission chain as the cases in Zhuhai. 1 residential building is currently at Medium Risk.
    • At Meizhou there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case (Omicron) in the city, a traced close contact of domestic positive cases at Zhuhai.
    • At Guangzhou there currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city, both custodians responsible for cleaning international flights at the airport.
    • At Dongguan there currently are 10 active domestic confirmed cases remaining, a secondary outbreak seeded by travels returning from Xi’an in Shaanxi.

    At Guangxi “Autonomous” Region 2 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 9 active domestic confirmed (8 at Dongxing in Fangchenggang & 1 at Ningming County in Chongzuo) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Chongzuo) cases in the province.

    Tianjin Municipality reported 8 new domestic confirmed cases (all mild, all at Jinnan District), all from persons already under centralized quarantine. The city did not find any cases in the community from the 4th round of mass screening. There currently are 348 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases (all presumed Omicron) in the city (328 at Jinnan District, 12 at Qingxi District, 6 at Hexi District & 1 each at Hongqiao & Dongli Districts). 12 residential compounds are currently at High Risk. 23 residential compounds & 3 villages are currently at Medium Risk.

    Beijing Municipality reported 5 new domestic confirmed cases (2 mild & 3 moderate), 3 are cold chain logistics workers, part of the cluster of 5 positive reported on 1/19 (all found via weekly screening) & 2 are there traced close contacts. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed cases (3 Omicron & 8 Delta in 3 separate clusters, likely via 3 different introductions) in the city. 1 residential compound & 1 warehouse have been elevated to Medium Risk.

    At Dalian in Liaoning Province there currently are 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases (all Omicron) in the city, part of the transmission chain from Tianjin.

    At Shanghai Municipality there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 20 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 shop is currently at Medium Risk.

    At Jiangsu Province there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Nanjing) & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases (both at Wuxi) in the province.

    At Zhejiang Province 7 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 78 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. A factory & a village at Jinhua remain at Medium Risk.

    Henan Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases. 19 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 953 active domestic confirmed cases in the province. As the province does not break down the recovered cases by location, I can no longer track the counts of actives cases at different cities in the province.

    • Zhengzhou did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 residential compound have been re-designated to Low Risk. 8 residential compounds & 3 residential buildings are currently at Medium Risk.
    • Xuchang did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 township, 1 sub-district, 2 villages, 3 residential compounds, 1 community, 1 residential building & a school have been re-designated to Low Risk. 1 sub-district & 2 villages at Yuzhou remain at High Risk. 2 sub-districts, 14 villages, 4 communities & 1 residential compound at Yuzhou remain at Medium Risk. The rest of Yuzhou is now at Low Risk.
    • Anyang reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases (all at Tangyin County), 18 from persons under centralized quarantine & 1 from home quarantine. 1 township & 1 school at Tangyin County are currently at High Risk. All of Tangyin County (except High Risk areas) is currently at Medium Risk, as are 1 district, 1 village, 1 residential compound & 1 residential building elsewhere in the city.

    Mengla in Sipsongpanna Prefecture, Yunnan Province reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 1 found during screening at hospital intake & the other is a traced close contact. 1 domestic asymptomatic cases was released from isolation. There currently are 7 active domestic confirmed (2 at Dehong Prefecture & 5 at Kunming) & 4 active domestic asymptomatic (all at Sipsongpanna Prefecture) cases in the province.

    Imported Cases

    On 1/20, China reported 50 new imported confirmed cases (2 previously asymptomatic), 29 imported asymptomatic cases, 1 imported suspect case:

    • Shanghai Municipality – 28 confirmed cases, 4 Chinese nationals returning from the US, 2 each from Mongolia (via Frankfurt), France & the UK (via Helsinki), & 1 each from Argentina (via Frankfurt), Canada, Japan, Hong Kong, Germany, Sweden (via Frankfurt), Switzerland, Serbia (via Zürich), the DRC (via Paris CdG), Nigeria (via Frankfurt), Tanzania (via Frankfurt), 3 Swiss nationals coming from Switzerland,  1 Taiwanese resident each coming from Nigeria & Taiwan, a French national coming from France, an Irish national coming from Ireland, & a Russian national coming from Russia; 1 suspect case, no information released
    • Guangzhou in Guangdong Province – 5 confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic), 1 Chinese nationals returning from Bangladesh, South Korea & the US, & 2 foreign nationals coming from Turkey; 4 asymptomatic cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Bangladesh & Costa Rica, & 2 foreign nationals coming from Turkey
    • Shenzhen in Guangdong Province – 3 confirmed cases, all Chinese national returning from South Korea
    • Dongguan in Guangdong Province – 2 confirmed cases, 1 each coming from Hong Kong & the US; 2 asymptomatic cases, 1 each coming from France & Malaysia; all off flights that landed at Guangzhou
    • Foshan in Guangdong Province – 3 asymptomatic cases, all coming from Saudi Arabia; all off flights that landed at Guangzhou
    • Qingdao in Shandong Province – 6 confirmed cases, all Chinese crew members off a cargo ship w/ last port of call in South Korea
    • Beijing Municipality – 2 confirmed cases, 1 Chinese national each Canada & Germany; 12 asymptomatic cases, no information released
    • Xiamen in Fujian Province – 2 confirmed cases, 1 Chinese national each returning from Romania & the UK (both via Amsterdam Schiphol)
    • Fuzhou in Fujian Province – 2 asymptomatic cases, both coming from Japan
    • Zhengzhou in Henan Province – 1 confirmed (previously asymptomatic) & 1 asymptomatic cases, no information released
    • Guangxi “Autonomous” Region (location not specified) – 1 confirmed & 1 asymptomatic cases, no information released
    • Kunming in Yunnan Province – 1 asymptomatic case, coming from Thailand
    • Chengdu in Sichuan Province – 1 asymptomatic case, a Chinese national returning from Cambodia
    • Jiangsu Province (location not specified) – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released

    Overall in China, 197 confirmed cases recovered (82 imported), 19 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (17 imported) & 2 were reclassified as confirmed cases (all imported), & 5,215 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 3,173 active confirmed cases in the country (1,212 imported), 12 in serious condition (all domestic), 765 active asymptomatic cases (720 imported), 5 suspect cases (all imported). 55,263 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.

    As of 1/20, 2,956.218M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 4.732M doses in the past 24 hrs.

    On 1/21, Hong Kong reported 24 new positive cases (most are suspected to be Omicron), 6 imported & 18 domestic (2 do not have sources of infection identified, yet). Another 20 cases are preliminarily positive.

    On 1/21, Taiwan reported 78 new positive cases, 45 imported (10 from the US, 3 from Vietnam, 2 each from Australia & France, & 1 each from Paraguay & Saudi Arabia, 5 yet to be published) & 23 domestic (including 10 cases at a new cluster at Kaohsiung).

  15. 15.

    Steeplejack

    @satby:

    Good news about your sister!

    Today’s news is making me think that Omicron is not peaking yet? It’s hard to make sense of the fire hose of information.

    I wrote a somewhat detailed e-mail to my brother yesterday explaining why getting together is still on hold and that, to be honest, the Sighthound Hall mob is my main point of potential exposure (two kids in elementary school, one parent teaching in an elementary school). Haven’t heard back.

  16. 16.

    Dog Mom

    Question for the legal minds out there – can the maskless passenger be sued by the other passengers for the delay (or any other inconvenience)? Just curious. .

     

    And Satby – good to hear about your sister – what a relief for you!

  18. 18.

    satby

    Thanks all! Yes, I’m relieved for her.

    @Spanky: and I presume WG’s email to him wasn’t answered. IIRC, he’s an older gentleman with cardiac issues, so a longer stay than he expected in a hospital isn’t that uncommon; but it is worrisome.

    We’re all thinking/ praying/ sending best wishes Amir!

  19. 19.

    New Deal democrat

    Internationally, cases continue to decline more or less sharply in South Africa, the U.K., Ireland, Israel, and Canada, although deaths are still rising in all cases except South Africa.

    On the other hand, cases are still rising in Denmark and Portugal, more than 2 months after their current wave started. It’s possible that Omicron piggybacked on a rising Delta wave in both cases; however, in the former over 80% of the population is vaccinated, and in the latter over 90%. These two countries are cautions that not everywhere has followed the South African model, as is the State of Hawaii, where cases also continue to rise about 6 weeks after the current wave started.

    Otherwise, in the US, cases are only up 10% or more in the past week in the States of AK, AL, AZ, HI, ID, KS, MT, KY, LA, NE, NV, NM, ND, OK, SC, TN, UT, WV, and WY. In all other States and in PR and DC they are flat to declining, and are declining sharply in all of the early hard hit States except for HI as mentioned above. Both nationally and in the Northeast, South, and West Census regions they have peaked. Only the Midwest shows a continued increase.

    Hospitals have peaked simultaneously with cases, which suggests either a capacity or triage issue, and/or people are reluctant to seek treatment there. ICU admissions are still slowly increasing. Deaths increased to. 1853, a 3+ month high.

    I am increasingly comfortable with the fact that Omicron has peaked in the US, about 5 months after onset. Hospitals will remain under severe strain for several more weeks. Deaths will likely peak in late February at under 2500.

    Beyond that the situation very much depends on whether and when the next unusual variant hits, and how much resistance has been obtained by the vast unvaccinated idiot population in the US.

  22. 22.

    Mike E

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Youngkin is acting like he’s the governor of a bright red Republican-controlled state and not a purple state that’s been trending blue for the last 10+ years

    ::waves:: from purple trending NC with a red TEA legislature, nearly all red congressional peeps  and a Sisyphus-dem governor :-(

  30. 30.

    Quinerly

    @Spanky: I’m following threads so sporadically. So l am not up to date on comments. Still no word from Amir? I just hate it when commenters just disappear and we never know what happened. We lost Mnem and CornerStone… I guess they just stopped commenting and “poof” they are gone. And btw, where is Adam?

  34. 34.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    @debbie:  I’m guessing that means 1/50, but I stumble over that every time I read about something being, frex, 20 times less likely.

    That phrasing has been bugging the hell out of me.  I’m sure by a ‘twentyfold decrease’ or ’20 times less likely’ they mean 1/20 of the incidence or likelihood.  But I’d never seen it before reading some of the tweets in these threads, and ’20 times’ in this context normally means you multiply, not divide.  Same way with -fold.  So a decrease of more than onefold shouldn’t be possible.

  35. 35.

    Spanky

    @Quinerly: It was on the AM covid post a couple of weeks ago that Amir announced that he would be in hospital “for a few days” and would be unable to post. And no word since then.

    ETA and what Steep said.

  36. 36.

    Quinerly

    @OzarkHillbilly: l forgot to take my beat around dog walking coat on that last trip. Realized it in Santa Fe in Oct when truly unpacked in the rental. Treated myself to a really cool Carhartt coat… Loads of pockets. I felt funny about buying it but love that color. Had figured they were rightwingers. So Carhartt is doing the correct thing and Starbucks isn’t. We are in an upside down world.

  37. 37.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Steeplejack:

    Today’s news is making me think that Omicron is not peaking yet? It’s hard to make sense of the fire hose of information.

    It depends entirely on where you are. In Massachusetts, the new case counts and the wastewater counts clearly show that we’re past peak infection. But the disease takes time to play out and I know a lot of people who are sick right now. The death counts probably haven’t peaked yet.

  39. 39.

    Ohio Mom

    @debbie: I asked the resident math nerd: Ohio Dad says 50 fold is “not a scientific term.”

    Taking it literally, as he is wont to do, he says it is 2 out of a 100 (or 1 out of 50, as DW said). But he points out that since the source of that statistic is so imprecise, using a non-scientific term, who knows what they meant.

    I’ll add that earlier this morning he shared he saw a sign outside a 5/3rd Bank that they are now offering a credit card with 1.67% cash back. “Get it? That’s five divided by three!” Then soberly added that he doubted very many people would get the significance of that amount.

  43. 43.

    mrmoshpotato

    An American Airlines flight to London returned to Miami less than an hour into the flight after a passenger refused to follow the federal requirement to wear a face mask, according to the airline.

    I hope they literally threw this asshole out of the plane (after it landed and taxied.)

  44. 44.

    mrmoshpotato

    @satby:

    Even with MS and medications that suppress immunity, my vaxxed and boosted sister is feeling fine after five days. 

    ? Great to hear!

  45. 45.

    Fair Economist

    @YY_Sima Qian: At this point, I’d say China has demonstrated it is possible to hold even Omicron in check. New Zealand, too. Pretty relevant when arguing with the “let it rip, it’s hopeless crowd”.

  46. 46.

    Soprano2

    I think what Suroweicki says is correct. Conservative states are going to decide that for them Covid is over, and they will quit encouraging testing and reporting of cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Large cities will probably still report, but the rural areas will go completely dark. Of course, schools will still have to close due to illness, and some businesses will close or struggle due to lack of help, and hospitals will still be overrun, but at least they can say like our governor did that the Covid state of emergency is over and everything is mostly back to normal. *rolleyes* It’s a perverse incentive. Like Trump said, they think if you don’t test you don’t have cases so why are you testing so much?

  48. 48.

    Soprano2

    @Fair Economist: OH c’mon, the only way to hold Omicron in check is to lock everyone in their houses the minute a case happens, and even then China keeps having small outbreaks. Where other than a brutal dictatorship would that be possible? There is no way anything like that could EVER be done in a Western country, especially after two years of this (perhaps possible at the beginning when we didn’t actually know what it was and people were terrified of dying). The only places that can actually keep something like Omicron in check are island countries with relatively small populations. That’s the main reason New Zealand has done as well as it has. Let’s not be unrealistic about what’s actually possible. There’s a lot of space between “Lock 14 million people in their houses for three weeks” and “Let ‘er rip”.

  50. 50.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Soprano2: A bunch of Western countries (not the US) managed something close to that in the first, really deadly outbreak, but as a lot of public-health experts have said, in anything other than an authoritarian society you basically get one shot at hard lockdown. Once you open up, people won’t go back. And the US blew it on much less anyway.

    I’ve been more isolated over the past month than I was before, but I’m not even personally back to spring 2020 protocols.

  52. 52.

    Scout211

    @mrmoshpotato:

    @Quinerly:

    From a Miami TV station report it was actually a couple and the woman was the disruptive one. She was not arrested, though, just put on the no-fly list

    A source told CBS4 News the couple was suspected of being intoxicated, which does not come as a surprise to CBS Travel Editor Peter Greenberg.

    “As long as they are not counting the number of people getting on planes already drunk, because so many of these cases involve alcohol consumption prior to boarding the plane – if they don’t address that this could be the new normal for the rest of the year,” said Greenberg.

    CBS4’s source says that among the couple one person was more of the problem.

     

    Police dispatch called for officers to meet the plane at Gate D14. Once the plane landed, more than 100 passengers were informed they had to get off the plane.

     

    The woman who refused to wear a mask was not arrested, however, she was put on American’s internal no-fly list pending further investigation.

  53. 53.

    Cermet

    From google on fold (decrease):

    Divide the original amount by the new amount to determine the fold change for a decrease. For instance, if you have 20 grams of water at the beginning of an experiment and end up with 4 grams, divide the original number (20) by the new (4) and note the answer as a negative result. In this case, 20/4 = -5 fold.

  54. 54.

    Kalakal

    Grandaughter tested positive for Covid 4 days ago. Poor mite is mildly ill but basically ok. Daughter, SIL and grandson all negative. Whole family vaxxed and boosted etc. She found the attention rather fun at first as shes never felt that unwell but is now  very bored and unhappy. She’ll be 8 in 2 weeks so she’s going to have a very special birthday

  55. 55.

    smith

    @Kay: It seems Sinema has found the sweet spot: Too crazy to be a Dem, not crazy enough to be a Rep. I look forward to not watching her when she launches the TV career she’s been promised after her term ends. That’s assuming of course that she’s an honest politician and stays bought.

  58. 58.

    Sloane Ranger

    Thursday in the UK we had 107,364 new cases. This is a decrease of 32.8% in the rolling 7-day average. New cases by nation,

    England – 95,974 (down 571)

    Northern Ireland – 3879 (down 572)

    Scotland – 4743 (down 194)

    Wales – 2768 (up 632).

    Looking at the graphs, it seems, to my eye, that case numbers are declining, but at a much slower rate than over the past week or so.

    Deaths – There were 330 deaths within 28 days of a positive test yesterday. This is an increase of 1.8% in the rolling 7- day average. 280 deaths were in England, 2 in Northern Ireland, 27 in Scotland and 21 in Wales.

    Testing – 1,539,546 tests took place on Wednesday, 19th. This is a decrease of 16.1% in the rolling 7-day average.

    Hospitalisations – There were 18,494 people in hospital and 675 on ventilators on Wednesday, 19th. As of 16th January the 7-day average for hospital admissions was down by 7.2%.

    Vaccinations – As of Wednesday, 19th, 52,168,592 people had had 1 shot of a vaccine, 48,048,962 had had 2, and 36,688,441 had had a 3rd shot/booster. In percentages, this means that 90.7% of the UK population aged 12+ had had 1 shot, 83.6% had had 2 and 63.8% had had a 3rd shot/booster.

  60. 60.

    Kent

    @Cermet:

    From google on fold (decrease):

    Divide the original amount by the new amount to determine the fold change for a decrease. For instance, if you have 20 grams of water at the beginning of an experiment and end up with 4 grams, divide the original number (20) by the new (4) and note the answer as a negative result. In this case, 20/4 = -5 fold.

    But this stuff gets messy when you start talking about percentages.   For example:

    If you go from 100 to 75 that is a 25% decrease.

    However if you go from 75 to 100 that is a 33% increase.

     

  63. 63.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Soprano2: You don’t have to go the extent that China has, you can follow Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea, which so far has been able to prevent a rapid escalation of Omicron cases. Whether that just means a slower ramp remains to be seen, but they might be able to suppress the peak enough so as to not overwhelm hospitals & reduce disruption to services & businesses.

    I personally prefer China’s elimination strategy, which means almost pre-pandemic normal (aside from international travel) > 90% of the time just about everywhere & > 95% in most places, & the mental health that comes w/ it for everyone involved. I am relieved that the measures appear to be still viable against Omicron even in winter.

  64. 64.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Fair Economist: NZ has not yet faced a community outbreak of Omicron cases at the scale of the Delta outbreak in Auckland. NZ government has already said they will not lock down if there is community transmission of Omicron, & will only resort to mitigation measures. So NZ will not attempt to eliminate Omicron outbreaks.

    I am frankly surprised (pleasantly) at the situation in Tianjin. They had an Omicron case traveling to Anyang in Henan Province at the end of December, seeding an outbreak there 2 weeks before Tianjin discovered theirs. Given the transmissivity of Omicron, the > 2 weeks of cryptic transmission in the community, & it being cold winter in Tianjin, I was expecting the worst. Instead, the city has apparently contained the outbreak at < 400 cases, the vast majority w/in Jinnan District, & w/o resorting to the city-wide or district-wide toughest level of lock down. Anyang appears to be getting there too, kept the vast majority of cases to Tangyin County, though it has been slower going. I gather from Chinese social media that no Wuhan/Xi’an level of lock down has been imposed on all of Tangyin County (most of the cases being concentrated in 1 boarding school). 1 person from each family is allowed 2 hrs outside of their compounds to purchase necessities. As there are volunteers during the day to monitor their time outside, the streets of Tangyin is largely empty during that time. However, as volunteers go home at night, people start to venture out, & take the opportunity to chit-chat & socialize. The authorities had to clamp down & restrict residents to their homes in hot spot villages a few days ago.

    I am also relieved that mass screening campaigns has not proven to be a significant vector for Omicron transmission, so one of the key pillars of China’s strategy remain viable.

    I think a major factor for Omicron outcompeting Delta so rapidly is its immunity escape properties. As Chinese response does not factor in vaccination status at all, it may be less affected.

    Nevertheless, China may have benefited from the push in Nov./Dec. to fully vaccinate the elderly & rolling out boosters for those that were fully vaccinated in the 1st half of the year. Over 2K active domestic cases & just over a dozen serious cases that requires hospitalization (meaning oxygen support), & I believe 2 – 3 critical cases that require intubation in ICU. > 1.2K active imported cases & not a single serious or critical case. Omicron does appear to be milder, & the vaccines are effective at drastically reducing the worst outcomes. (Note: The vulnerable septua- & octogenarians are not likely to be flying into China at this time.)

  66. 66.

    Bill Arnold

    @Matt McIrvin:

    I’ve been more isolated over the past month than I was before, but I’m not even personally back to spring 2020 protocols.

    My main change is using N95 masks (actually one mask, reused for a long while; working from home) and insisting on mask usage whenever it is in my power to do so, including at home if there are untested visitors.
    That’s actually stronger than spring 2020 measures for me; was using a dust mask at the time, much better than a cloth mask probably (it was well-fitted, low leakage) but not an N95.

    China is making a big bet on almost no long-COVID health burden in their population relative to almost all other countries. Probably intentionally, IMO. The let-it-rip/done with COVID people are forcing the rest of the world to be the control arm in that experiment. Personally, I’m avoiding SARS-CoV-2 infection to reduce the probability of certain long-COVID outcomes like “brain fog” (very real!), kidney damage, heart arrhythmias (have always (since childhood) had intermittent bouts of PVCs; don’t want them worse). Not looking forward to being forced by selfish psychopaths to play slow Russian Roulette every new wave of SARS-CoV-2 variant. If these damages accumulate, expectations of healthy old age will drop, a lot, unless we have a universal vaccine for the entire SARS-CoV-2 tree and future virus lineages. The increases in national healthcare spending could be huge, and if so, fiscal conservatives will start floating policies that reduce health care for the unhealthy.

  67. 67.

    StringOnAStick

    The county positive rate is higher than it’s ever been here in central Oregon; 1 in 15 here are a positive, active case.  And of course in the red tilted town just to the north, the school board and the screaming parents who show up for their meetings were first going to sue the state over the mask mandate, but instead have sent a strongly worded letter to the Governor.  The state health authority has decided that once the mask mandate expires in early February they are going to change it to mandated for the time being.  TL;DR: positive cases are higher than they’ve ever been by a LOT, and yet the wingnuts in Redmond want the schools to stop masking, and 3 of the 4 idiots on the school board agreed.

  68. 68.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Bill Arnold: Oh, yes, I’ve upped my mask game considerably. In spring 2020 I was using homemade cloth masks–the very first one I used, on a terrifying trip to the grocery store before most people were wearing them at all, was literally a ripped-up T-shirt and probably provided me with zero protection. For a while we were using some fairly well-fitting commercial cloth ones with replaceable paper filters in them. Now it’s N95s or go home. But I haven’t ceased in-person shopping like I eventually did then.

    I was greatly encouraged by the recent Israeli preprint suggesting that being fully vaccinated provides fairly strong protection against long COVID. But more corroboration would be welcome.

  69. 69.

    JustRuss

    I’m quarantining today, waiting for test results.  Two friends of mine are positive, spent time with both of them recently.  One of them’s unvaxxed because “she just doesn’t want the vaccine”.  Doesn’t have health insurance either.  I don’t see this going well for her.

  71. 71.

    sab

    @Steeplejack: You made the right choice. My sister and BIL have been extremely careful throughout except for contact with their elementary school grandchildren. Today I got a message that all of them now have very mild covid.

    You wouldn’t want to be home in quarantine or isolation when the doctor’s office gets a cancellation.

  73. 73.

    Steeplejack

    @sab:

    Thanks. I’m comfortable with no contact for the time being.

    My ill-fated doctor’s appointment has already been rescheduled for February 22. I decided to let it go at that. I’m not having any problems, just somewhat impatient with the process.

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