From NBC News:
Manchin says he’s ready to talk. Can Democrats sell him on a new ‘Build Back Better’?
The pivotal centrist Democrat has been elusive on President Biden’s top domestic priority. He says he’s willing to restart negotiations — “from scratch.”
On Thursday, Manchin indicated openness to reviving negotiations.
“We’ll be talking to everybody who wants to talk,” he told reporters before leaving the Capitol. “We’ll just be starting from scratch.”
Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden laid out a path forward that he believes can meet Manchin’s demands and become law: Focus the legislation on climate and clean energy funding, expanded Affordable Care Act funding, universal pre-K, prescription drug savings and new tax revenues to finance it.
Wyden said Democrats have yet to settle on a final spending level but are listening closely to Manchin’s demands. “He wants to deal with inflation,” Wyden said, arguing that the bill includes cost containment policies. He said Manchin “feels very strongly” that new programs be set up and funded for 10 full years. “We are going to try as hard as we can to make these permanent.”
Sweet weeping Jeebus, are we really going down this road again? Pawpaw Blacklung and Ms. Curtsey aren’t bargaining in good faith. They never were. They never will.
Just two days ago, Manchin told NBC’s Manu Raju that he “wants to see inflation, covid and the national debt dealt with first” before he’ll countenance discussion of BBB provisions. Mind you, this is after he went on Fox News to blow up BBB last month because the wording of a press release hurt his feelings.
Next he’ll insist on a cold fusion-powered perpetual motion machine — to be delivered in a golden cart pulled by a unicorn that shits scotch eggs and pisses bourbon. Seriously, fuck that guy, and to hell with Senator Self-Actualization from Arizona too.
I understand we have to govern with the Senate we have rather than the Senate we wish we had. But engaging with these preening flakes again isn’t a no-risk proposition. They’ve done more to harm Biden’s presidency than Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy combined, and they’ll keep right on with their death-by-a-thousand-papercuts strategy as long as it keeps the cameras on their smug-ass mugs.
Enough. Cut them off. Accept the fact that Republicans control the Senate, with the important exception of federal judiciary and administration nominations that require senate approval. Make the most of that scrap of power and executive orders, and work like hell toward holding the House and electing a real Democratic majority in the Senate this November. We don’t have one now.
Open thread.
germy
Paid spoiler.
sab
If they want to talk to Manchin, fine. Just please do not say so publicly. It just makes Democrats look both weak and really really stupid.
trollhattan
What you said. They’re just trolling for camera time at this point, which seems to be the primary mission; wait, secondary after bagging campaign cash.
BerkeleyMom
And . . . Lucy tees the football back up!
Brachiator
This is some bold bullshit. Manchin is saying that he, not the president, sets the agenda for BBB legislation.
Un-fucking-believable.
The Pale Scot
The state of the States in 17 seconds
https://twitter.com/AwardsDarwin_/status/1482310959343489030?cxt=HHwWjMCypdj9nJIpAAAA
Betty Cracker
@sab: Yes. Have all the private conversations you want, but not one word to reporters until both obstructionists agree to be fitted with remote controlled explosive collars to ensure they’ll vote aye on a bill. If THEY blab to the media, call them liars.
Ken
This reminds me of General Wallace Nassame.
marcopolo
With Manchin being one of the two votes we need (and also being willing to actually say what he would support unlike Sinema) at this point instead of “talks” we should just ask him what he will support & get that done asap. “Talks” which is what we did last time got us pretty much nowhere except for spending a lot of time, a resource wherein having a D trifecta is very limited.
And it’s not like this path makes me happy (fuck Manchin & Sinema), but I’d rather see things done imperfectly than have nothing done at all.
Baud
FWIW, I think this is one area where Biden has dropped the ball.
Baud
@Ken: That’s quite a reference. Apt, though.
marcopolo
@Brachiator: Whelp, and I know you know this, because of the way laws are passed (and partisanship) he & Sinema are the singular point of failure for the entire Biden agenda so yeah he kinda does control what happens with it. Sucks, but there you go.
Baud
Manchin can’t raise money to obstruct if there’s nothing to obstruct.
Brachiator
They are still Democrats and may still be useful. It is a hell of a test for Biden, but it will be interesting to see how he handles this. It is part of politics.
mrmoshpotato
Fuck them both! We need to flip at least 2 GrOPer Senate seats so that “the world’s greatest deliberative body” ? actually works again.
Ken
@Baud: I’ve been waiting for the perfect occasion for (checks wikipedia) forty years??!!
Mike in NC
Manchin needs to die in a coal mine explosion. Meanwhile, I stepped outside this morning to get the newspaper and my car was encased in a quarter of an inch of ice. No going anywhere today.
MagdaInBlack
@mrmoshpotato: Thank you. My initial reaction was also ” fuck him, fuck his big white horse.”
WereBear
@The Pale Scot: I’d add a warning… that didn’t look like any kind of happy ending.
Steeplejack
Manchin? Yeah, fuck that guy. COVID: Pretty much everything that can be done is being done, given the fucked-up politicization of the issue. Inflation: Yeah, there is some, but it’s not an existential issue right now. The national debt?! Get the entire fuck out of here right now. Why didn’t he mention that when Trump and the GQP were giving a $2 trillion tax cut to the wealthy?
Sebastian
You can do one thing though:
go nuclear on the coal industry (metaphorically, not literally as in building power plants).
That’s his power base and it would be a declaration of war against them by basically issuing EOs and declaring a Marshall Plan to phase out coal by some crazy date, say 2025, incl bananas shit like suing coal companies and their owners for environmental and health damages.
His cooperation was the only reason why we didn’t so far. Now with his coop gone we no longer have to play nice with coal. Time to draw blood and have him come crawling back to save whatever is left after the initial onslaught.
Butter Emails!
Every Democratically aligned Senator, Kamala Harris and Biden himself are potential single points of failure. Manchin and Sinema are the only 2 being complete assholes about it.
Joe Falco
@marcopolo:
I’m sure this has been done already by his colleagues in the Senate and the White House. He’s never given the public a straight answer on what he wants, and I bet he’s about as mealy-mouthed in private as well. Scratch that, he probably has in private. It’s probably a list of demands that’s unreasonable and/or unattainable for Democrats to meet.
burnspbesq
Let’s nominate them to be ambassadors, and take our chances with the special elections to choose their successors. Hard to imagine the outcome of that process being worse than the current situation.
RaflW
Completely agree, Betty. Manchin (and Sinema, but really it’s mostly the coal state f**ker) is purposely gumming up the works. I don’t give a shit what his motives are. They’re irrelevant, frankly.
But the net effect of his Lucy-Charlie Brown routine is to prevent other Democratic priorities from being enacted. Schumer and the other 47 Dems need to smoke him out.
Move smaller bills that have public support. Get things done, dammit. One thing I think we can all be doing right now is writing and calling our Democratic senators (if we’re lucky enough to live in states with them) and urge them to get to work on bills the House has either moved or is hearing/marking up, and get them through senate processes.
It is beyond foolish to engage with Maserati Joe. He’s garbage. Ice him out.
wenchacha
How many swear words do I know? Because I want to say all of them, over and over.
burnspbesq
@Sebastian:
Coal is on its way out anyway. It’s become the least profitable way to generate electricity.
NotMax
Diogenes will find enough to pack a stadium before Manchin finds his 10 Republicans.
kindness
@burnspbesq: I think Kyrsten would make a fabulous ambassador to Iran or Afghanistan if we only had ambassadors there.
Betty Cracker
@Brachiator: Well, the test hasn’t gone well so far, has it? Biden has Trump-like approval ratings despite extremely impressive performance on many fronts, and a ginormous portion of that can be laid at the feet of these two so-called Democrats, who make Biden and the party look weak and feckless.
That’s the problem. These negotiations are not cost-free. They damage the president and the party. Manchin and Sinema have demonstrated repeatedly that they’re not bargaining in good faith. I believe them.
@marcopolo: It’s always going to be a negotiation because all 50 Dems have to support any bill. Last month they were within striking distance, and Manchin literally went on Fox News to blow it up because of the wording of a press release. These are not people who can be engaged on rational terms. They’ll keep moving the goal posts.
Sebastian
@Steeplejack:
Yeah the debt one is easy: Reverse the last tax cut.
dopey-o
Once Handsome Joe brings Cold Fusion online, we will achieve 100% vax rate! And then, we melt down the filibuster into Bitcoins for all!
Almost Retired
“No..No, BBB is not dead after all…..I promise….over here, press….let’s talk about what’s acceptable to me…..Here I am….please pay attention to me again….I remain totally relevant…..really…..please applaud..?!?”
The Pale Scot
@WereBear:
What? A guy waving the American swastika while setting his own head on fire is sad?
Brachiator
@marcopolo:
Manchin ain’t Senate Majority Leader, Minority Leader or anything. He is insulting the president by suggesting that they start from scratch. He seems to be trying to deliberately undermine Biden and providing material for the Fox News crowd (“Biden has lost control of his party”).
I ain’t no politician and don’t pretend to be one on the Internets. It will be interesting to see how Biden and his administration deal with this.
Manchin is wrong about all his concerns. And he was waffled on what he wants or sees as an alternative.
Biden did not need this fight. But he’s got it. And the GOP is loving it, because they don’t have to say or do anything to get the obstruction that they want.
Sebastian
@burnspbesq:
yes, but it will still be around for 20-30 years, especially with bullshit like carbon sequestration & storage and other super expensive methods (subsidized by public dollars) to keep the industry viable and help the owners of the leases monetize the deposits. (I happen to know a thing or two about the new sustainability industry, happy to share)
The only reason we didn’t kill them was the GOPs squealing like a stuck pig and Manchin. That just changed.
Old Man Shadow
I’m willing to see the entire Senate walled up inside their chambers.
wvng
@RaflW: “Move smaller bills that have public support. Get things done, dammit. ” While I agree with this in principle, the problem remains we need republican support, 10 votes, to do anything other than via reconciliation, and we only have one more bite at that apple. That is why BBB had to go big. Much of BBB has broad public support, but no actual support from Senate republicans … because they want Biden to fail and don’t care about the country.
MisterForkbeard
Honestly, this is what I’d do. Say you’re happy that Manchin is interested in helping the country, and you’re looking forward to his full proposal, but given that he previously spent 6 months ‘negotiating’ and backed out you’re going to wait until he knows what he wants.
Keep the door open but don’t encourage the press in any way.
p.a.
The correct PUBLIC reaction by any Dem Senator when given this information is: “… has Joe been on Fox news yet to say the exact opposite?”
trollhattan
Guess I already knew their political bent, but goddamnit.
OzarkHillbilly
@burnspbesq: Judges.
narya
Any Senator can bring a bill to the floor (within constraints). So, go ahead Coalman, put the bill together and garner the support for it. Until then, shut your trap. It’s put up or shut up time. (I also like the idea of some EOs phasing out coal, if Coalman doesn’t do it in a timely fashion.) This posture of acting like everyone has to come to him on bended knee? Fuck that. You have a bill in mind, go ahead and draft it and get the support.
SiubhanDuinne
Fucking fuck that fucking fucker.
(adverb verb adjective noun)
Baud
@MisterForkbeard:
Yep.
“Not news.”
hells littlest angel
Doing nothing while hoping things get better ten months from now is hardly a better course than trying something while hoping things get better ten months from now. While you shouldn’t negotiate with terrorists, you SHOULD negotiate with hostage-takers.
TM
@BerkeleyMom: Seriously. When was the last time you saw Lucy Van Pelt and Manchin in the same place at the same time?
sab
@mrmoshpotato: Tim Ryan could use some campaign contributions.
Ken
@WereBear: It is from the Darwin Awards. So, terrible for the individual organism, but good for the species.
trollhattan
The return of Bunga-Bunga time?
In many ways, Silvio is the modern day prototype for Trump. I’m impressed that he, like Donny, remain out of prison.
jefft452
@marcopolo: “we should just ask him what he will support & get that done asap.”
Why do you believe he will support what he says he will support?
Ken
@Old Man Shadow: “For the love of God, Montresor!”
pajaro
1000 likes to your last paragraph. I’ve tried to get some of my friends to assimilate the fact that, on many many issues, we are just not in the majority in the Senate. It’s 48 plus two who caucus with us (S and M) versus 50 hard negative votes. Then I remind them that it’s close to a freaking miracle that we got to 48, given the long, long odds of winning the Georgia runoffs.
It would really, really help to pick up seats in places like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina. They aren’t out of reach. We need to get our story out, and they need to be willing to listen.
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
As I said before, I ain’t no politician and don’t play one on the Internets. In the past I have avoided posts trying to tell Pelosi how to do her job. I do the same with Biden.
Cutting Manchin and Sinema loose is also not a cost-free option.
And Biden may need their votes in the future. Conceding even small control of the Senate makes no sense to me.
Also, as I have noted before, this tax season will see a massive amount of refunds going to low income and middle income taxpayers because of new refundable credits. Massive.
This is a preview of BBB and there ain’t a damn thing that Manchin can do about it.
But Biden can use it to his advantage.
Meanwhile, Manchin can go to West Virginia and see how many people there, in one of the poorest states in the union, want to give the money back.
Kay
Manchin and Sinema are going to drag Biden down to 30% approval. I’m hoping self preservation kicks in at some point.
I’d honestly rather they negotiate with the 3 moderate Republicans. At least then there would be some hope of actually getting something done and it wouldn’t be Democratic Senators taking down the Democratic President, which is obviously more damaging.
Steeplejack
@marcopolo:
Manchin previously had a proposal on the table of what he would support (allegedly), and now he’s thrown away even that to “start from scratch.” What is the point of continuing to engage with him (in public)?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Betty Cracker:
yeah, but a bigger portion can be laid on omicron
Sebastian
@trollhattan:
Boom! Now the real owners are asking WTF are you fuckers doing with OUR money? Lol
Kay
@hells littlest angel:
They shot the hostage. There’s no upside with negotiating with them anymore, and substantial political downside for Biden.
They are not going to make a deal. They have now screamed this from the mountaintops. They set out to block Biden’s agenda and damage Biden politically and they have succeeded. Allowing them to continue to drag him into the Manchin and Sinema shit-show is now optional.
jnfr
I am quite done with Manchin. I don’t care anymore.
I was pleased to just hear on MSNBC that the Arizona Democrats voted to censure Sinema. I’m, done with her too.
Martin
Neither one will agree to jack shit until the DNC can guarantee they’ll be the uncontested presidential nominee in 2024.
Betty Cracker
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: True, and before that, Delta. Variants can’t be negotiated with either.
Kay
I know this is impolite, but is there some reason we have a Senate majority leader when the entire onus is on Joe Biden to make a deal? I ask again- where is Schumer and why isn’t he stuck with these two? Why isn’t this his problem?
CAM-WA
They’ve done more to harm Biden’s presidency than Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy combined
No, No, No, a thousand times no! The Republican “new religion” of “we will do everything in our power to stop Democrats from accomplishing anything” is FAR more harmful. If the red team behaved the way they used to in the past, BBB would have passed with Republican votes from Senators who either (a) actually believe in it, and/or (b) who represent states in which being more moderate is an electoral advantage.
RaflW
@wenchacha: I feel like watching some Winchester-era episodes of MASH to be reminded of his facility with the non-foulmouthed, erudite swears.
Baud
@Kay:
Who says Biden is dealing with them going forward? The excerpt mentions Manchin and Wyden.
Betty Cracker
@jnfr: Josh Marshall at TPM has a (paywalled) post up with the title “Rejoice—Kyrsten Sinema’s Political Career is Already Over.” He runs through multiple scenarios and makes a good case that she’s done no matter what she does over the next few years. Good riddance.
@Kay: Exactly.
Kent
Well no, the last thing we can have is THAT if it puts some MAGA coal miners and MAGA coal mine owners out of work. Out of the question.
hells littlest angel
@Kay: No. The hostage isn’t Build Back Better, it’s our democratic republic.
James E Powell
@sab:
If he talked like a Biden Democrat, he’d have no money problems.
Kay
@Martin:
Deficit reduction. So they not only want to kneecap Biden’s whole agenda but they want Democrats to adopt the entire GOP approach to the budget.
No social spending until we pay for the infrastructure bill that Manchin was more than happy not to pay for! And reversing some of the Trump tax cuts is off the table too, because Sinema and her wealthy patrons object!
Romney has a child tax credit proposal. Negotiate with him. He’s not personally committed to tanking Joe Biden. It’ll be more progressive than anything Manchin comes up with anyway.
Kent
Exactly. With Manchin and Sinema we are still on offence. They are fumbling the ball and fucking up the drive, but we are still on offense. Judges are still being confirmed. Executive actions are happening across the country largely under the radar. Not everything is legislation.
With the GOP back in power, nothing remotely good or even neutral is on the table. It’s all desperate defense, trying to preserve what semblance of civilization we have left against the hordes of MAGA orcs. Not one good thing happened during the entire Trump presidency. It was endless defense and endlessly exhausting.
Betty Cracker
@CAM-WA: We don’t live in that world anymore and haven’t for a very long time. McConnell and McCarthy are behaving the way Republicans behave now. It sucks for America, but it’s not as damaging politically for Biden and the Democratic Party because no one expects Republicans to do anything but fling poo. When people in a president’s own party stab him in the back repeatedly, people wonder what’s wrong with the president and the party.
RaflW
@Steeplejack: re: Inflation, I just read a wild piece at the Atlantic from one of their climate reporters on the incredible volatility in lumber prices. There ain’t a gol durn thing anyone in the US senate can do about that in the short term. Supply shocks are just going to be part of the picture for a while. For a lot of raw materials and staple goods.
But of course Joe’s “but mah inflation!” dance of the seven veiled threats is just that. He’ll pull six more arguments outta his ass if the first one is successfully ‘negotiated.’
Brachiator
@Kay:
There is already a child tax credit in place for tax year 2021. And it is working. It will put money into families’ pockets.
This is the starting point. Not anything proposed by Romney or by Manchin.
There is an expansion of the Earned Income Credit in place for tax year 2021. This is the starting point.
Democrats should know this.
RaflW
@burnspbesq: Manchin’s appointed replacement would be an “R” and all Mitch McConnell’s botox couldn’t contain the hideous, disfigured grin that would emerge.
Kay
@hells littlest angel:
They shot the voting rights hostage too.
Negotiating with people who operate in bad faith is a non-starter. It doesn’t matter if the other side wants it to work. The one and only question is will “negotiations”, the process, harm Joe Biden because the process will end in failure. They will get nothing. So does the appearance of a real negotiation benefit Biden politically? I say “no”. I say that based on whether it has helped him the last 9 months. No, it hasn’t.
sukabi
Past time Manchin and Cinema learn they ARE NOT in charge. Time for public airing of their dirty laundry.
jnfr
@Betty Cracker:
I’ll definitely support whoever primaries her.
What are we thinking about the best Senate seats to target this year? I like Demings in Florida and Fetterman in PA. I’m not a huge fan of Tim Ryan but he might have a shot in Ohio. Anywhere else?
Citizen Alan
@trollhattan:
Fuck Home Depot. I just took a 25-point hit on my credit rating b/c those bastards cut my credit card max from $9k (which I never asked for in the first place) down to $5k solely because I never used it. You know, on account of the fact that I sold my home and have nothing to buy from there!
Which, I know, is nothing compared to their Neanderthal views on abortion rights, but damned if seeing the company’s name isn’t triggering right now.
Sebastian
@jnfr:
I checked my ActBlue and it turns out I donated $100 twice to her campaign. I’d really like to see a pledge counter/thermometer where us donors pledge to donate to her opponent.
James E Powell
@Kay:
The Arizona Democratic Party censured Sinema this morning for her refusal to support voting rights.
How do you think she will respond?
trollhattan
@sukabi:
As proxi-Republicans, isn’t dirty laundry a net plus for them?
Ksmiami
@Sebastian: drop kick him into a vat of coal dust. Don’t waste any time on him
trollhattan
@James E Powell: What’s Sinema-speak for “Let them eat cake”?
Baud
@jnfr:
I think Demings and Ryan are expected to win their primaries, but Fetterman is currently not favored. FWIW.
Ksmiami
@Betty Cracker: Biden can not spend one more ounce of effort on these two… Time for the screws
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Most of the politically active black women I follow on Twitter like Conor Lamb. They don’t think Kenyatta has a chance.
schrodingers_cat
Jen Psaki must be good at her job. BS sis, Susan Sarandon is attacking her on Twitter adding her voice to RWNJ complaints.
Did Biden get any credit from the critics of forever wars for ending the war in Afghanistan? If he did, I haven’t seen it.
The only way to make Manchin and Sinema irrelevant is to elect more Democrats to the Senate.
Kay
@hells littlest angel:
I would level with the base. Tell them no Democratic legislation is getting through because we have two Democratic senators who have blocked it and will continue to block it, for reasons of their own. Negotiations with these two means Democrats will take a loss over and over and over, on each excruciating piece of BBB, and end with nothing.
Here’s what a real negotiation looks like. Manchin and Sinema put forth their proposal. That gets negotiated. They have offered nothing. In fact, Manchin WITHDREW his prior proposal, with no counter so that was obviously a lie. Democrats are negotiating with themselves and inexplicably they have designated Joe Biden the lead instead of Schumer, just to ensure that Biden takes the entire political hit.
Ksmiami
@hells littlest angel: Those two shot the fucking hostage- enough wasting time on either of them
RaflW
BTW I got an unsolicited fundraising email last night from the “Democratic Strategy Institute.” Groups are constantly selling or renting their lists, so that in itself is not unusual. But I got curious and looked ’em up on Open Secrets.
Last year they raised roughly $7.5M. The spent $4.2M on fundraising fees. The money went to outside consultants. It’s an infuriating scam. I put some very scathing comments in the ‘why are you leaving’ box (doubtful that even an unpaid intern will read my comment, but what the hay).
My point, and I do have one, is that given the bonkers amount of money slushing around in Dem circles (dwarfed, of course, by RW largess, but I digress) – what if some of Biden’s allies organize a couple mil of that goddam waste of grassroots cash above to mobilize WVa voters to just swamp Manchin?
I know hearing from his own constituents pisses him off and makes him more dug in. But why not make him suffer? He’s earned the white hot heat of his own base, who clearly want the things he is refusing to give them. Make him feel it.
eta: I understand that the Dem machine doesn’t work that way. But as has been pointed out in great detail above, Manchin and Sinema are tanking Biden’s poll numbers and derailing swing state Dem senators’s chances. Make them pay a price – they’re trashing Dem machine politics!
Kent
@jnfr: Ron Johnson in Wisconsin.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud:
I thought he was leading in most polls (probably name recognition IMHO), but Kenyatta was talking a couple of weeks ago about a poll that showed Fetterman’s support tanking when people were told about the shotgun incident
I have a theory about people voting for affect, and I’d be curious to see how Fetterman’s bar-bouncer look would play in a general election, but I don’t know if it’s a chance I’d take when a clean-cut Marine-vet former-prosecutor who flipped and held an R-leaning seat is available.
I remember when Lamb won his special election and the cable networks covered it live in the apparent expectation that he would take to the mikes and bellow, “I do hereby denounce the Daemon Witch Pelosi and all her dark magic!”, and instead he talked about (as I recall) how his grandpa had always told him that FDR and the New Deal saved this country and working people.
Ella in New Mexico
@germy:
There is absolutely no other reasonable explanation for his–or Sinema’s–behavior at this point.
Both are on the precipice of “greatness” if they become the two that push voting rights over the line. Both would get heroes parades and fawining over by the media if they frinally admitted that no good will ever get done until we get rid of the filibuster, and that R’s will do it day one if they become the majority so lets fucking DO THIS.
Something doesn’t add up with either one.
When I listended to some of Sinema’s speech the other day I sensed something I hadn’t before: she seemed scared to me. Like, she really HAD to do it, didn’t really want to but had to suck it up and say all that garbage.
I think they’re not just paid, I think its worse than that. Maybe at first it was “donations and acccess”, but now it’s more like blackmailed. By people known for shoving dissidents of of 12 story apartment balcony….
Ksmiami
@RaflW: kick them off committees, go against the Coal industry and ice them out. Fuck them for tanking the party. They definitely lived down to my expectations
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
My bad then. I thought Lamb was in the lead.
Kent
Not much she can do. The GOP has no use for a pro-choice bisexual prima donna who voted twice to impeach Trump. They have plenty of their own crazies waiting on deck in AZ so they can get the real thing. She would be just as annoying as a Republican as she is as a Democrat. She can declare herself a Angus King style independent I suppose, but I don’t think running as a party of one will fly in AZ.
zhena gogolia
Biden’s approval ratings have more to do with Omicron than with anything else. People outside don’t know who Manchin and Sinema are and don’t care about legislative accomplishments (in the short term). They care about whether they can go out and have a margarita (forgive me).
Kay
@James E Powell:
I don’t think she’ll respond at all. One of the main complaints about Sinema from her former supporters – the grass roots supporters, is she’s completely unresponsive as a representative. She doesn’t meet with anyone besides big donors. It’s probably the most damaging thing they say about her, because it puts paid to the bullshit that she’s all about her state.
I disagree with the people who think she will be a “lobbyist” though. Lobbying is about power and relationships. If she’s a short term senator she won’t have either of those. She’ll be a short term senator with a 9% approval among Democrats and a 35% approval among MAGAS. Why would anyone pick her to lobby for anything? She isn’t popular with either side.
MomSense
I’d tell Manchin to go fuck himself and this is why I’m not suited for office. Of course the adults in the White House and senate will have to deal with him.
Kent
This, and inflation. Gas prices seem to control the brains of a whole lot of middle America folks who have doubled down on ridiculous gas guzzling trucks and SUVs over the past decade.
jnfr
@Baud:
Who is good in PA then? Anyone you like?
Steeplejack
@RaflW:
We discussed inflation here in depth a month ago and then revisited it a few days ago when someone was meeping about 7% inflation over last year. Krugman had a long piece last month ago that pointed out (among other things) that about 2.8% of that inflation is supply-chain issues caused by the plague year.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
some WV polling
Baud
@jnfr:
First, I’ve been corrected about the polls so don’t listen to me.
And no, I don’t have a favorite there. Don’t know enough about the leading candidates.
RaflW
@Sebastian: I gave her $100 back in the day. I’ve considered writing to her campaign to ask for my money back. I doubt they’d do it, but it could be an interesting exercise for those of us feeling burnt to try.
I got a refund from Al Franken’s campaign when he resigned, but that was for the then-current cycle. Somewhere around then, I also gave some money to some dude who literally pulled a runner. Quit his campaign and moved out of state after filing for the race and raising dollars. ActBlue was not able to facilitate a refund, and his campaign was just *gone* and not answering emails.
So I have no serious hope Sinema’s peeps would lift a finger. But I’d be happy to help demoralize them. Yes I’m feeling petty today.
Kay
@zhena gogolia:
People hate congress. As long as Biden is wrangling with Congress they’ll think Biden isn’t paying attention to Presidenting.
Again- if Democrats want to enter into another fruitless negotiation with the two Right wing Democrats have Schumer do it. At least put some distance between Joe Biden and this continuing shit show.
Another Scott
@sab: Biden and Psaki signaled that he will be out in the country more and less visibly hands-on in pushing S&M.
RollCall points out that any major changes to the reconciliation make the process very complicated and make it easier for the GQP to throw monkeywrenches in it. So that argues that the broad outlines will likely remain, so yes S&M will still determine the limits (as they have all along), but they won’t necessarily kill the whole thing.
I assume there will be lots of pressure on S&M to take yes for an answer to get most of the things passed, even if lots (more) good things have to be cut in the process.
Some headlines about falling inflation and increased tax revenues from the recovering economy will take wind out of M’s sails. Signs that VVP isn’t necessarily going to actually carry out his threats in Ukraine would be good too…
We’ll see!
Cheers,
Scott.
Kent
And then when the next SCOTUS justice retires? Then what? We all come crawling back begging for their votes?
Yarrow
@Brachiator:
Which Democrats? Voters? I doubt a high percentage of them do know it. And if they do, they aren’t sure who gave it to them. Swing voters will know it even less. These sorts of things don’t get publicity the way “Inflation” and “Border Crisis” and “CRT” do.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: things could’ve changed, I haven’t seen a recent poll in a while. And most of my information on this race comes from some tweeters who don’t like Fetterman and are not all in PA. This tweet, if accurate, does put the whole “He’s already won statewide” thing in some perspective.
jnfr
@Kent:
Is there a Dem in Wisconsin who seems likely? I know I’ve supported WisDems a few times with a little cash, so I hope they have someone.
@Baud:
Okay, thanks.
Joe Falco
@Ella in New Mexico:
That’s just it. They don’t even have to agree to getting rid of the whole thing. Other Democrats have talked for the last few weeks that just a carve out allowing for voting rights legislation be exempt from filibuster would be enough, but it’s a bridge in Alabama too far for those two. That’s what’s really infuriating.
Ella in New Mexico
@Betty Cracker: I agree. Fuck “talks”.
I genuinely wish Biden would be a bit more like FDR and dig up some dirt on the REAL reasons’ these two are being so obstinate–donors names and connections for one–then using it as leverage in any “talks”.
Oh, then forwarding it to the FBI if needed, of course.
Kent
That is one thing that Obama understood well during the ACA. Even though it came to be known as “Obamacare” that was due to GOP marketing after the fact. When it was actually under debate in Congress he pretty much kept his hands off and let the Dem Senators carry all the water. The White House and Obama were remarkably silent during most of the ACA debate.
Kay
@Another Scott:
I don’t know what it is going to take. Manchin and Sinema engineered the situation where they have to cut it into chunks so make each piece harder to pass. At what point do people admit this is bad faith and has been bad faith every step of the way?
Manchin and Sinema are working on two things- protecting the Trump tax cuts and blocking the Democratic agenda. Democrats can either work with them on that, a bad idea, I think, or not. It’s bad enough they’re doing it. Asking the 48 Democrats to support them in it? It’s suicide.
Anonymous At Work
@sab: No, say so publicly and hold the negotiations publicly. Every word, every document. Offer it up to any Republican to join the negotiating table, publicly. Price of admission is to negotiate openly and then be forced to show your good faith or else prove yourself a liar.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
quick google doesn’t turn up any polls on teh PA Dem Senate primary, but this is from CNN about a week ago:
No mention of the shotgun incident in a rather long article, unless I missed it among all the page breaks and pop ups that make it hard to read. Also, this on the R candidates is amusing
a carpet-baggers’ three way!
Kent
@jnfr:Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is apparently one of the front runners but I don’t think there is an overwhelming primary favorite yet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandela_Barnes
Ksmiami
@Kent: Rt now the entire party looks weak and feckless. Biden has spent too much political capital on these two and to rebuild he needs to focus on what he can do from the actual Presidency. If Americans start feeling better about omicron and the economy things will be better for the midterms. And frankly Manchinema need to pay a price for their treachery
RaflW
Since this thread is connected to Joe Biden’s lousy poll numbers:
So I’m gonna guess that with the howler monkeys we now have as a press corpse¹, Joe Biden will be the first modern president to not see a so-called wartime bump in his polls, should Ukraine go hot.
They’re gonna Afghanistan-withdrawal-disaster him to no end, I fear. “Why didn’t Biden negotiate tougher with Putin?” “Why didn’t Biden bolster NATO (which TFG tried his damndest to weaken, and now Tucker is spouting Russian disinfo about)?” “OMG a US troop got a hangnail in Germany, it’s Biden’s fault.”
¹ not misspelled
Brachiator
@Yarrow:
RE: Democrats should know this.
Certainly Balloon Juice commenters who mention the Romney plan as though it is an alternative.
How can voters not know, since Republicans opposed it. But if you want to say that Democrats should blow their own horn more, fine. Doesn’t really change anything.
Main point is that Manchin arguing that the Democrats should be starting from scratch is bullshit. Suggestions that the Romney plan might fill some vacuum is an error.
Yarrow
@Ella in New Mexico:
Wouldn’t surprise me with Sinema. Her Green party background makes it more likely, imho.
Another Scott
@burnspbesq: You don’t have much of an imagination then.
Things can always, always be worse.
We need S&M if anything is to get through this Senate. That’s the reality.
And we need to hope that none of the 50 on Team D have any health issues in the next year+…
Cheers,
Scott.
Kay
@Kent:
Exactly. There’s another crucial distinction- the Right wing and centrist Democrats who weakened the health care bill actually wanted a health care bill and came in intending to pass one, so Obama had the prospect of actually passing one, thereby making the huge political hit he took leading up to 2010 worthwhile and at least a bet on something. That is not true of Manchin and Sinema.
Is not passing any of the agenda worse than not passing any of the agenda with the addition of Joe Biden getting dragged into and stuck in the Manchin/Sinema bullshit bad faith gameplaying for the next 6 months? That’s the question. They set out to hurt him and they succeeded. Let’s not let them take the entire Party down.
JMG
Give Manchin a pad of yellow legal paper and a pen. Tell him to write down what the hell, if anything, he will vote for and then a deadline of 10 days, max. After that, whatever he wrote down will be seen as binding by the other Democrats. And of course, the legal pad will be made public as soon as Manchin returns it. If he doesn’t return it, then his offer is nothing and that’s made public, too. He’ll drag this out to Election Day 2022 if he has his druthers. This cannot be allowed.
Ella in New Mexico
@Citizen Alan: Not with Home Depot but this has happened to me a couple of times with other cards. Cut my limits while other credit cards raised them literally in the same month–yet net result was bad for my credit score. Go figure–
And God forbid you voluntarily CLOSED the account, by the way, that literally cost me 100 points before I knew it was BAD to not want an unasked for credit card at QVC.
:-(
RaflW
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: As long as Carla consents, they can do whatever they please in private.
WendyBinFL
Last night on Chris Hayes, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) said, more or less, “Give Sen. Manchin a pen, and tell him not to bother coming back until he has written down everything he’s willing to support, and then pass THAT.” Of course, I realize that Manchin has already reneged on his earlier offer — Lucy! — but at this point, agreeing to conversations or negotiations is a waste of time.
I have been contributing to the Senate campaigns for Val Demings, John Fetterman (although I’ll concede that Conor Lamb is probably more electable), and Cheri Beasley in North Carolina. (As well as incumbents Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Catherine Cortez-Masto, and Maggie Hassan.) Whew!
Kay
@JMG:
He has one more hostage to shoot, so apparently we’re now going to let him not shoot that hostage until June, although we know he’ll shoot it. Give him “deficit reduction” before he shoots the hostage or not- that’s the choice. Then go explain to your base why you gave him infrastructure and deficit reduction and got nothing in return.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Ella in New Mexico:
From Manchin’s daughter’s profiteering on epi-pens to his own work in the coal industry to Sinema’s penchant for fancy vacations and fancy high-dollar fund-raisers, to say nothing of the fact that she’s a bisexual who wears neon wigs and thigh-high boots and denim vests on the Senate floor, all of this is public information. What secrets do people think Biden has but just won’t use because he’s too worried about being nice, like Obama (major sarcasm there) ? Manchin’s daughter testified before the House in if memory serves 2009 and hasn’t been associated with the company since soon after. Manchin’s work in coal is a plus for him with his constituents. The very popular governor of WV is a billionaire coal miner (he inherited the company) who also owns one of the fanciest golf resorts in the country (Greenbrier). He had to switch parties to stay in office, he didn’t have to pretend to be a working man.
Blackmail fantasies are just that.
Geminid
@Baud: Fetterman was leading the polls thoughout the fall. I haven’t seen any new polling yet this year, but there will be some soon. A betting site has gone from Fetterman favored over Lamb by 65-35 to a 50-50 proposition, for what that is worth.
Lamb has picked up some good endorsements, including a 30-member organization of Philadelphia-area trade unions. Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney endorsed Lamb on Tuesday. Kenny said he respected all the candidates, but “I wanna win” and he thought Lamb was best suited for the purpose.
The Lt. Governor has a very loyal following, and some complain that Lamb is too moderate. Malcolm Kenyatta and Val Arkoosh are well thought of but it’s looking like a two man race between Lamb and Fetterman. The primary will be May 17.
debbie
How about compromising and passing a talking filibuster? What could Kirsten have against that? No comfortable shoes? //
brendancalling
@marcopolo: LGM had a similar suggestion. Give the pompous motherfucker what he wants, pass the fucking thing, declare victory, and move on.
I’d rather see something pass than not pass. As long as it passes, let that Blockhead-looking dipshit peacock all he wants.
Kay
@WendyBinFL:
Apparently the senate majority leader is not permitted to insist the hold outs put forth an offer. No, we must continue to negotiate with their vague ramblings on their Right wing economic views and somehow divine what it is they would support. If the marker is they only support what Mitch McConnell would vote for (the infrastructure bill) then at least we have a framework. We only get the two “Democrats” if we also get 19 Republicans.
RaflW
@Kent: Which is why way up near the top I was advocating for a push to pass other legislation. Get the molasses senate to do some work. My version of icing them out is to put forward discrete bills that have popular support, and if these two clowns oppose even them, well, we’ll know that they are fundamentally unwilling to govern. Which will make them RExINs (Republicans Except In Name). I won’t even call them DINOs.
Mike in NC
@jnfr: Iowa. Retired VADM Mike Franken can take down 87-year-old Chuck Grassley, who has one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel.
Kent
What other legislation do you propose would pass with the current cloture rules requiring 10 GOP Senators actually show up and support it?
Adam
Honestly, force him to put to paper everything he wants (and Sinema too, just to be safe), and then say, ok, we can do that. Either we get their votes and we get something, even though it’s not going to be nearly enough, or they renege and it gets laid bare that they have no interest in anything but themselves.
Kent
I’m on the opposite side of the country so I don’t have a stake in this. But the only issue that really matters is whether they will support the Dem caucus on getting rid of the filibuster. And generally vote with the caucus like all the other new Dems have such as John Ossoff. Nothing else really matters. We just can’t afford another Sinema.
RaflW
@Kent: How about moving the Reaching Every Homeless Veteran Act? Manchin is a cosponsor. As is the ass-kicking Mazie K. Hirono of Hawaii. Romney and and Moore-Capito are also on board (has 4 & 4 co-sponsors, so bipartisan! Whee!).
That kind of stuff. There’s bills out there. Move ’em.
Kay
@RaflW:
It’s not a bad idea. Act like they’re in a minority in the Senate, because they are.
It would just be such a shame of these two were rewarded or their incredibly dishonest and sleazy behavior by keeping them in the limelight for more months and passing their priorities- the Trump tax cuts remain in place and they pay for the infrastructure bill they didn’t pay for by taking it out of the hides of children in poverty. It’s obscene. The poorest people in this country are now going to pay for the roads and bridges?
The Dangerman
I assume Manchin has realized that no one, most especially the Sunday morning shows and his corporate donors, gives a flying fuck about him unless he’s screwing over the Democrats and Biden. Rinse/Repeat.
Miss Bianca
@Kay: According to that article by Josh Marshall, she enjoys a pretty high approval rating (for a nominal Democrat) from Republicans. But you’re right, of course – they would never, ever vote for her. They just like her for fucking up the Democrats’ shit right now.
Mousebumples
I know we just raised a ton of money for Michigan, but if you have any spare change left, join me in helping to build a strong bench for Democrats (and Democracy) around the country. ?
Ella in New Mexico
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: All that is true.
I just think there have been some even darker characters that snuck in through the dark money pipeline and have now revealed themselves to be far more dangerous to these two greedy putzes than they ever considered.
From my point of view, it’s not a blackmail fantasy at all, it’s happening in real time. It is the bad actors of the world like Russia, Saudi Arabia and China’s newest and most effective weapon of war: topple governments by buying politicians, interfering in elections, and creating civil war using social media.
Like the mob or the Cartels, a politician might think they can skirt around their edges, get some of the money action, play a little bit but not get trapped–and that’s pretty much impossible.
Geminid
@Kent: I more or less identify with Lamb’s wing of the party myself, and I think the ideological conflicts in the party tend to be exaggerated anyway. I thought the criticism was worth mentioning, though, if only to be fair to Fetterman and his supporters. I really dislike him myself, even setting aside the question of electability.
jnfr
@WendyBinFL:
That’s a great list. Thank you.
Major Major Major Major
Couldn’t hurt, might help. I’m afraid I’ve something of a heretical view here. Looking at Manchin’s statements for the second half of last year, it’s clear (to me) that nobody was actually listening to him. The plan seemed to be to convince him that BBB was what he really wanted, rather than crafting something he actually did want. He doesn’t like the child tax credit and no amount of telling him otherwise will make it so. Etc.
He’s on board with the climate provisions, or was last I saw, as well as some tax increases. Maybe start there.
The hodge-podge of late-starting, early-ending safety net expansion (that would require a Dem trifecta after 2024 to extend) is kind of silly anyway. Better than nothing, sure, but this is an opportunity to try to do a couple things right instead of half-assing a bunch of things.
As for the child tax credit, court Romney, his proposal is pretty good.
Now, this still leaves Sinema available to ruin everything, which she may very well do, because she’s horrible.
@Sebastian:
¿Porque no los dos?
Mousebumples
@jnfr: there’s a crop of good candidates. Mandela Barnes (current Lt Gov) has the most name recognition. Sarah Godlewski is the State Treasurer. Tom Nelson is the county executive in Johnson’s neck of the woods (I think Outagamie county?). Alex Lasry is the son of one of the owners of the Milwaukee Bucks.
I haven’t figured out who I’ll vote for in the primary, but I have until August, so there’s time.
With a late primary, another reason i endorse supporting WisDems. They can build the ground game now, for the eventual Democratic candidate.
Another Scott
@Kay: Manchin has said he wants to get rid of TFG’s tax cuts.
Warning – Politico:
Yeah, I know, he’s said lots of things. Maybe it’s his version of 11-D chess, but I don’t think so. He’s been pretty consistent on some things like rolling back TFG’s tax cuts. Not that he understands what would be necessary to do the things he says he wants, of course…
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Matt
@Kay:
He’s a Republican. He’s 100% committed to tanking Biden, he’s just slightly better at lying than McConnell.
There are no moderate Republicans, and the sooner we stop pretending that there are the better. There is no negotiating or compromising with a criminal gang.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Major Major Major Major: I’m inclined to agree, if the problem were only Manchin. My head is spinning with all this, but I believe Sinema is the one ruling out any tax increases, so who knows if she would’ve been on board with Manchin’s now-withdrawn December proposal, and then didn’t that have to go back to the House, the Gottheimer Nine and the Squad?
My own view is: Pounce on anything that includes the climate package and get it to Biden. But I don’t have a vote.
Joe Falco
Christ, what an asshole:
Kemp Sues Biden Administration over Medicaid Work Requirements
Governor Shotgun is doing his part to show he won’t be pushed around by evil Democrats for his reelection campaign.
sherparick
@sab:
The problem is neither Manchin or Sinema, both being narcissists, will not keep any such talks private, but will want lots of stories that center on them. On the otherhand, if Biden, Harris, Schumer, Pelosi, & progressive senators and congresspersons don’t engage with them on this subject, they will start screwing with judicial & executive appointments to get attention.
Major Major Major Major
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yeah, we pretty much know what’s up with Manchin and how to deal with him by now. Sinema is obviously just a bad-faith ratfucker at this point. For a while I thought she was just cosplaying as John McCain but now I think she just has untreated Borderline Personality Disorder or something.
sherparick
@Another Scott:
Senator Narcissist from Arizona has stated that tax increases that repeal the 2017 tax cuts are a red line for her.
John Revolta
Fuck you Joe. What you got for me? Show me the money or get out of my fucking face.
topclimber
No more negotiations with the onesy-twosey twins. Not unless everything discussed goes public.
It is time for the 95% of the Dem caucus to offer a bill and tell Manchin and Sinema: Take it or leave it. Let them make whatever public arguments they can, but no more Senatorial hush-hush. And make THEM react to the majority, not the other way around.
No doubt covered by others, but I am just working through the thread now.
Brachiator
@Another Scott:
This is idiotic. Trump’s gang totally revised the tax code, individual, corporate, estate and trust. And did a shitty job, leaving some errors. They added more changes with Covid legislation.
But they made comprehensive changes.
The Democrats need to take time and do a thorough job of reversing this mess. It is not a matter of simply reversing cuts. But Manchin is both an idiot and good at pretending that he has mastery of this issue.
Biden had included some tax reform items. And also critical was increased funding for the IRS. Recent news stories talked about the IRS still sitting on about 6 million 2020 returns.
More funds for audit and enforcement would raise revenues.
Meanwhile, the GOP is practically bragging that they would let the tax enforcement system collapse in order to protect plutocrats.
Geminid
@Joe Falco: Kemp is concentrating on his renomination campaign now. Former Senator David Perdue is challenging him, with Trump’s endorsement. This will be a bitter and expensive contest.
Another Scott
@sherparick: Some taxes.
Warning – Politico:
There’s nuance in the positions of both S&M. They’re not spouting completely obstructionist rhetoric. I suspect that many of the things they say they want are nearly impossible to get through the Senate because of the way the various rules and committees work. But there are ways to make things happen and get legislation done.
We don’t help our blood pressure by using too broad a brush.
We’ll see!
[eta:] I’m old enough to remember the “windfall profits tax”. There are lots of ways to square these various circles.
Cheers,
Scott.
sherparick
@WendyBinFL:
Also, organize locally, both in local Democratic clubs, environmental, civil rights organizations.
James E Powell
@trollhattan:
Not sure, but based on past performance it would be 150 words of incoherent & factually inaccurate babble.
James E Powell
@Kay:
I would also level with the independents. Explain to them – with examples – that Rs are dishonest hypocrites who only want government to fail so that independent voters will be angry at those in office.
We do not do enough demonizing of Republicans.
lowtechcyclist
Schumer should just tell Manchin, “No talks, buddy. Write your own damn bill and bring it to the floor. Remember we had this bill full of great things that practically every Democrat in both the House and the Senate support, and we spent nine or ten months trying to suss out which of those things you would support. And at first you seemed to be ready to support quite a bit of it but not all, then you had problems with this or that, and finally you decided to kill it all.
“So no more talks, bucko. Write your own damn bill, and put it in writing that you’ll vote for it. Then the rest of us can decide what to do with it. But we’re done playing Lucy-and-the-football with you. You played us for a year because there was no other game in town. But we’ve all gotten to the point where we’d rather just assume we won’t get anything done this year than to go through that again. You and Senator Sinema can talk all you want with each other, waste each others time. Not mine.”
Michael Cain
I’ve seen Wyden’s energy proposals in writing. I have an impression from assorted sources as to what Manchin wants. My impression is that there’s basically no overlap.
RaflW
@James E Powell: It’s a Sangria and an “FO” ring. Jaunty magenta hat and all.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mousebumples: Right now, I am okay with whichever one wins the primary.
marcopolo
@RaflW: I hope you are keeping in mind that for the Senate to pass any legislation they need to meet a 60 vote margin (that damned filibuster) or do it through reconciliation (which can be used once/year–twice under the right circumstances). Which is why so much stuff was piled into the BBB bill. No other legislation that requires the 60 vote threshold will pass the Senate and the Rs are pretty much firm on the idea that they won’t support anything while Biden is prez. So even if you peel off Murkowski, Romney, the sincere lady from ME, let’s go crazy and throw good ole Sasse in the mix, a couple retiring Rs (Blunt, Portman–but why would they do it?) you still do not have enough votes to pass anything.
That’s half the problem and anyone suggesting that the BBB legislation be broken into tiny bits and passed that way is apparently not thinking clearly.
Mousebumples
@Omnes Omnibus: Yup. I’ll vote for the Democrat in November. Not really a hard call there.
James E Powell
@Kent:
I’m not sure I’d agree that that was always a good thing. Letting senators take the lead meant that no one got credit for the good and Democrats got blamed for the bad.
Kay
@Another Scott:
Really? Then why didn’t he pay for the infrastructure bill? I’m confused by how “rolling back the Trump tax cuts” became his new position but wasn’t his position when he wanted something.
He waited until his bill was passed and now we get the handwringing over “deficits” but only as to social spending on people. The Chamber of Commerce wanted brand new infrastructure but they refused to pay for it. That will be paid for by cuts in social spending bills, so the bottom 20% will pay for it. Hey, they use roads and bridges too. Nothing at all wrong with them carrying the cost for the top 1%.
James E Powell
@Kent:
Given the importance of winning that seat, I am disappointed that Wisconsin Ds have not coalesced around one strong candidate. It’s an election year. What are they waiting for?
Citizen Alan
@Kent: I assume at this point the plan is just to try to limit the damage S&M do until after the ’22 elections. The odds that we will continue to have a 50-50 Senate seem remote to me. Either we will lose the Senate altogether or we will expand the Dem caucus sufficently to render them irrelevant.
marcopolo
@Geminid:
“This will be a bitter and expensive contest…”
to see which of them can out-MAGA-crazy the other. We all remember that campaign ad from last time where Kemp held a shotgun while talking about a boy dating his daughter (or something like that lol–can’t make this shit up!!!).
I am giving Stacey Abrams a month donation through the election. I sure as hell hope that she manages to pull this out for GA.
Geminid
@Mousebumples: It doesn’t seem like these candidates have a lot to fight about beyond who is most electable in the Fall. Hopefully they’ll all be able to all sing “Kumbaya” after the primary and mean it (speaking metaphorically of course).
James E Powell
@Geminid:
I don’t know if we can find it out, but I’d bet modest money that a majority of the members of those trade unions voted for Trump.
marcopolo
@James E Powell: Perhaps give some more thought to the egos of folks who run for political office. Bonus points for noting that the higher the level of the office the larger the ego of the candidate, generally speaking.
But seriously, a good primary fight, assuming that everyone kisses and makes up afterwards, is not a bad thing. How many times have we seen “anointed” candidates crash and burn (Amy McGrath I’m looking at you most recently). Let the primary voters get a good look at who has the best message and runs the best campaign. In the meantime, WisDems is doing the groundwork to ID every fucking potential D leaning voter in the state. Give money to them until the primary is over.
Geminid
@marcopolo: Perdue’s entry into the race was a break for Ms. Abrams. A lot of Georgia Republicans were pleading with Perdue to stay out, but Trump egged him on. Now he and Kemp will spend a lot of money tearing each other down.
Kay
@Another Scott:
He had his opportunity to make a stand on the Trump tax cuts. Democrats wanted to roll them back to pay for infratsructure. Sinema’s donors and the 19 Republicans objected, so they had to cave.
Oddly Joe Manchin was wide open to compromise when it was a compromise that preserved the Trump tax cuts. He only takes his principled stands when it blocks Democratic legislation. Again, if the measure is Joe Manchin only supports legislation that Mitch McConnell also supports, that at least is a benchmark for what Joe Manchin “believes”. Negotiating with liars is a waste of time.
marcopolo
@James E Powell: I’m also not sure this is particularly true. Obama had folks like Sebelius working alongside the Senate staff and I wonder how much dialogue was going on between Kennedy (Ted) & his staff and the White House. I suspect enormous amounts of coordination happened, it just was’t particularly public.
jnfr
@Mike in NC:
Added that to my list.
Mousebumples
@Geminid: I follow all 4 on Twitter, and they seem to be pretty united behind, “Let’s Fire Ron!” to this point. I’m hoping for the same, but we’ll see how it shakes out
@marcopolo: 100% agree with giving the money to Ben Wikler and WisDems. He’s put together an impressive organization that delivered Wisconsin to Biden in 2020. I’m glad he’s running things in my state.
marcopolo
@Kay: I am totally with you on Manchin disgust/loathing, and really had an aha moment when you pointed out the thin fabric Sinema has with which to craft a lobbying job (so what the fuck is she doing then?), but these two are in the proverbial position of “can’t live with them, can’t shoot them,” right?
I mean Biden just had another circuit court/appeals level judge confirmed giving him more confirmations at that level in his first year as prez than anyone else in history. That shit doesn’t happen without the two of them.
That’s what makes this all so fucking confounding.
Joe Falco
@Geminid:
And I’m rooting for injuries. The one thing I find immensely funny about the Republican primary for governor is how much Vernon Jones, the one Georgia Democrat-turned-Republican who had done so much to sing Trump’s praises as a Democrat (thereby giving him some scant media attention when he eventually switched parties), is basically no longer considered as part of the race whenever the race is mentioned by the media. He’s like a non-existence, and I hope he grinds his teeth over that every night. I wish him being part of the race will result in the weaker of the other two candidates to win the primary going into the general, but Jones twisting in the wind has it’s own satisfaction.
Geminid
@James E Powell: A lot of people disparage construction workers for their supposed propensity to vote Republican. That may be because the phrase “white working class” gets tossed around so much that some believe that the working class is, in fact, white.
All I know is that the head of the Philadelphia Council of Building and Construction Trades Lamb was standing behind at the press conference was a Black man. And the reporter for the The Philadelphia Inquirer stated that these unions could help Lamb with campaign manpower and funding, and it sounded like she believed they would
If you are curious, you can look up Bob Casey’s reelection in 2018 (he won by 650,000 vote). I’ll bet there is state media reporting on the effect of unions and the union vote in that election.
taumaturgo
marcopolo
@Mousebumples: I live in MO, which due to demographics (lots of aging white folks who are ill-educated) is a hopeless place for D politics outside of St Louis, KC, and Columbia (where U MO is). I am so glad Wikler decided to go to WI and take on that responsibility after working at Move-On. I have friends who say, “but if we just had a Stacy Abrams or Ben Wikler we could turn things around here,” then I show them the election map from Claire McCaskill’s 2012 race (she won by a small margin) to her 2018 race (she lost pretty handily) and point out that in 2012 rural MO still gave the D senate candidate 30-35% of the vote but that cratered 6 year later to 20-25%. And that makes all the difference in statewide races here. Hell, we are worse than OH now. I think Ryan has a slender slender chance of winning, but no D will win statewide in MO in probably my lifetime.
RaflW
@marcopolo: This is why I selected the Homeless Vets bill.
It isn’t part of BBB. It has four R cosponsors in the Senate, and has House Rs on that side, too.
And how could anyone not be aware of the 60 vote hurdle. Dems would of course need to message well on a bill like that, so that IF it failed to jump over the 60 bar, that the lack of 10 Rs who care about homeless Vets is the focus.
But that is surely not the only bill that Dems can move on while quietly trying to get the two prima donna Ds to lay their cards or fold. Because the past six months of that shit has been damagingly exhausting.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Betty Cracker:
This.
Another Scott
@marcopolo: My impression is that S&M desperately want someone, anyone in the GQP to support any Democratic legislation that expands the social safety net. That’s why she was so vocal and in every press conference about the BIF. That’s why he wants things to go through the “regular order” of committee hearings and amendments and all the rest. They really, really don’t want the BBBA to be Democrats-only. And that’s why they’re opposed to changing the filibuster/cloture rules without GQP support. It’s not the tax provisions or the climate provisions or the deficit scoring or when the CTC sunsets. It’s the lack of any GQP support that’s been the holdup.
My impression is that there’s no way to get them that GQP support for anything through reconciliation, and there’s no way to get anything with even token GQP support through regular order. So, we’ve been stuck for months while S&M refused to recognize that reality, and while staying in the news making demands about various provisions that aren’t the actual problem.
Obviously, that’s not a concern of theirs with judges and ambassadorships. And it wasn’t a concern of them with the ARP. And that’s a good thing!
That would seem to imply that something like the BBBA can get through reconciliation if there are explicit sunset provisions so that they can argue that it’s not a Permanent Expansion of Big Government Rammed Through By Liberal Democrats, because there’s no obvious way that the GQP is going to sign on to any expansion of the safety net.
I’m sure that Chuck and Nancy and Joe have thought about all of these things and are trying to figure out a way to make it happen. I’m confident that if there’s a way, they will make it happen. And I still expect them to do so.
tl;dr – We need to get what we can out of the work on the BBBA and do everything we can to expand the majorities in the House and Senate and statehouses. No matter what happens on the BBBA, the battle continues.
We’ll see!
Cheers,
Scott.
Kay
@marcopolo:
I was mad for a while on Democrats negotiating and losing but that was when I believed there was some possibility Manchin and Sinema would agree to something. If thet are negotiating in bad faith, and they are, it is not the fault of the good faith actors on the other side of the table. It is still their problem! But is no longer their fault. You can’t do it if they don’t want a deal, and they don’t want a deal. The best Democrats can do is work to limit the poitical damage to Joe Biden, because if his numbers go up that benefits them in their congressional races. It’s not substantive anymore. There’s no deal to work for. Switch gears to politics. Act like a Senate minority.
Geminid
@RaflW: If this bill passes, there will be a lot of reliable Democratic voters who will say, “That’s good to hear.” And if you replied, “Yeah. Especially after all the turmoil and conflict we’ve had the last few months,” they’d say, “What turmoil and conflict? You know, I really haven’t been paying much attention to politics. But I’ll still show up on Election Day like I always do.”
Jim, Foolish Literalist
marcopolo
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: A long long time ago when I was attending Camp Wellstone (anyone here remember that?), the rule was to win the election you needed 50%+1 vote and the way you got there was by growing your coalition of supporters.
I love Fetterman, but the way the winds have been blowing since Lamb jumped into the race, the way he is (very) publicly increasing the size of his coalition, I really think this race is his atm.
This is the longest I’ve participated in a thread forever as I’ve actively worked to reduce how much time I spend on politics (and, yes, I am a lot happier btw) but it’s been fun shooting shit with y’all. Have a lovely rest of the weekend.
Brachiator
@Another Scott:
It was Trump who increased the child tax credit as part of his tax cut bill. Trump had also lifted the idea of stimulus payments from liberal Democrats. Republicans who previously opposed safety net programs were told to shut up and support Trump. And they did, throwing their supposed conservative principles away.
The Republicans will chastise Democrats about bipartisanship, but have no problem with Republican-only legislation or with unanimously opposing Democrats.
They also have no problem with taking infrastructure money despite voting against the bill.
sab
@James E Powell: He does, except this week when he is understandably irked about the Manchin Sinima mess. I don’t see how Wyden’s position is more helpful.
There aren’t that many possible Democratic Senate candidates. If our side makes a point of bad-mouthing every candidate then we will continue to risk losing the Senate.
James E Powell
@Geminid:
I’m looking at past performance and recalling my experience with trade union members in NE Ohio who were Reagan – Bush – Bush Jr voters. If that’s disparaging, then so be it. My two Trumpista brothers – Pipefitters Local 120 – are anecdotal, but they are certainly not outliers.
And just as trade unions are not the same as other unions, trade union leaders are not the same as trade union members.
James E Powell
@marcopolo:
Maybe consider losing the condescension.
What does it say about a candidate whose ego overrides the obvious need for a party and maybe a democracy? These are not normal times.
And I cannot recall a Democratic senate or governor candidate who emerged from a hotly contested primary in a reddish purple state as a stronger candidate in the general.
japa21
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: As far as I’m concerned the best Lamb ad would just be a replay of him speaking to the House on 1/6 after they got back to work.
StringOnAStick
Wyden is not an idiot; maybe this is giving Coal Lieberman and his sidekick a fidget spinner to keep them busy trying to look good for the media, plus stay within the caucus so Turtle doesn’t become majority leader when one of these two flounces off to join the other party because D’s were mean to them. It gives both our barely D senators something they both live for; media coverage and also keeps them out of the way of the adults while the January 6 committee is presenting the case to the public.
James E Powell
@sab:
Democratic candidates who make a point of bad-mouthing the leaders of their party find that neither they nor their party benefit from it.
And fortunately, my comments here have no impact on the Ohio senate election.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@StringOnAStick: points for Coal Lieberman!
(though I do think Manchin is both sincerely dumber and less vindictive than Loathsome Joe)
Geminid
@James E Powell: It is a well known fact that union rank and file often do not vote the way their leaders endorse. But like I say, if you are curious, and want to develop your knowledge base on the subject, google “labor Bob Casey 2018 election” and see what local and state media report. Casey won that race by 650,000 voters, while Trump carried the Pennsylvania by 60,000 two years before. Obviously, we’re talking a somewhat different electorate. But organized labor is still big in Pennsylvania, and you can be sure that reporting and analysis of Casey’s reelection will treat the subject of his union support.
steve g
Why not both? This strikes me as something for Pelosi and Schumer to work on, while Biden can continue with executive orders, appointments, foreign policy, and such. Otherwise the House and Senate get to do investigations, which as we all know are not that effective at producing results. I’m pretty sure Biden would sign any version of a BBB bill that lands on his desk, unless it was completely bonkers.
Joe Falco
@StringOnAStick:
:golf clap:
Suzanne
Fuck Joe Manchin. He just wants attention. He can say, in writing and privately, what he’s willing to support. But he just wants to burnish his brand as a spoiler.
topclimber
It seems trivial to want peace in Ukraine primarily because I don’t care for any distractions from the GQP shitstorm that was Jan 6.
I like the public accounting, coming soon to a congressional committee, to have the stage to itself.
Meanwhile, I am taking up my butt-kicking regimen again. Best aerobics, trust me, for those with toxic hormones.
Geminid
@James E Powell: Does Tim Ryan actually “make a point” of disparaging his party’s leaders? All I’ve heard is the one recent instance you brought up in an earlier thread. And I noticed that while the reporting you quoted said something to the effect that Ryan had questioned a decision of President Biden’s, you kept saying he “slammed” the President. Was there something more critical that Ryan said?
Joe Falco
In years past, there would have been a group or a “gang” of whatever number of senators from both parties that would dictate to the rest of the chamber what legislation will have a chance of passing. Manchin would have loved to be a part of that I’m sure but other than Sinema, no Democrat wants to go through that and no Republican still alive wants to be seen working with Democrats.
Geminid
@James E Powell: I should have used a better word than “disparaged.” I’ve been going back and forth with others about issues involving working class people, particularly regarding the Infrastructure bill., and unfairly lumped you in with these others. A more accurate reply to your comment would have been “generalize about.”
StringOnAStick
Maybe we should try a little historic perspective about how Presidential terms tend to go; rather than bastardize his argument I’ll just post the link: http://yastreblyansky.blogspot.com/2022/01/stupid-analogies-department.html It’s great to spend time here venting, but none of us are on the inside of politics, which seems to be a lot more about relationships between the players that none of us know much about.
I’m going to have to go with what Marcopolo said when he stopped by above: spending all day here being angry is not helping our side, our politics and our lives so maybe it’s time for more strategic thinking, like recognizing Omicron is what is tanking poll numbers and that most people pay zero attention to this stuff and us going ballistic about any and all of this stuff is doing more to harm our individual lives than push our politics forward. I’m definitely ready to spend less time here and more time organizing.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
DougJ flagged this, and I honestly thought he had made it up, but the details were too specific.
An options trader from his home in Hinsdale, where the median home price, google tells me, is $1.1million, walked out of Chipotle over ~75 cents.
I googled James Marsh Hinsdale to see if this story was real– it is, it’s The New York Times, which I have to finally stop even half-ass defending here– and durn me if the first thing that came up, even before the NTY story, wasn’t the details of Mr Marsh’s PPP loan of $9,600. And if Mr Marsh’s income is $46K/yr, I’ll eat both our hats and buy him a thousand dollar Chipotle gift certificate.
How can anyone like this– presumably a college-educated guy who knows about the internet– not see that giving their real name to the NYT, over 75 cents, isn’t inviting the wrath of the on-line hordes?
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
The NYT is garbage.
Geminid
@Joe Falco: The Senate definitely is more polarized now than in the days of the Gangs. On thing that hurt the Gang system was when the Republican House caucus would not go along with the Gang of Eight’s plan for Comprehensive immigration reform. They had that stupid Hastert Rule, and even though there were a number of Republicans who would have voted for the plan Boehner would not allow a vote.
Now the problem is the Republican Senate Caucus. Plenty of Democratic Senators would agree on compromises, but there aren’t ten Republican Senators who will deal. Infrastructure was an exception, but businesses were all-out in support on that one. Otherwise, I think Republicans are betting that if they can jam Joe Biden’s agenda they will regain the majority in the midterms. I think we’ll pick up seats, though, and that may bring back the Gangs.
We could lose the House though. Some people think that’s probable, even a certainty. Personally, I like our chances, but a Republican House majority is a possibility. Then there will be gridlock on most issues. But if Harry Truman could make running against a “Do Nothing Congress” work in 1948, Joe Biden can make work in 2024.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: I’m trying to imagine that nobody, no editor, even if they don’t know the leafy suburbs of Chicago, ever said, “Julie, are you seriously fucking pitching a story about inflation with a lede about an options trader who didn’t want to spend seventy-five extra cents on a fucking burrito?”
Where have you gone, Lou Grant? Mrs Pynchon would’ve spiked this story, fercrissake.
frosty
@SiubhanDuinne: You can add Fuck! at the beginning.
(interjection)
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I promise you, even when the inflation rate goes down, the NYT will run a series of articles explaining that prices still haven’t gone down to what they were before.
Joe Falco
@Geminid:
Maybe. It seems so hard to believe we can extrapolate from past on what may or may not work in future campaigns given the political landscape of then and now. Do I have hope we can beat the bastards back this year? I do, but it’s either that or give into despair. We’ve overcome so much to throw in the towel now.
My personal opinion about the “gang” system is, yes, I agree that if Democrats pick up more Senate seats, it could possibly entice whatever “moderate” Republican is left in the Senate to want to deal (more likely if it’s a 58/42 or 59/41 split).
Odie Hugh Manatee
Wyden is our Senator and I wrote him to beware of dealing with Sen. Houseboat Mansion wanting to revive the horse that he killed as it’s solely a power play for himself. I understand wanting to pass a bill but it isn’t worth is to make Sen. Mansion the most powerful person in America.
That and allowing the nooz to drool all over him as he shits on the party to the benefit of the Party of Q. That’s what Sen. Mansion really wants. His voting against the voting rights bill is probably making him uncomfortable and this is his attempt to change the channel.
Geminid
@Joe Falco: Things have changed a lot since 1948. Truman’s victory was the last win of the Roosevelt coalition. It was all the more remarkable in that he pulled it off despite Henry Wallace and Strom Thurmond leading breakaway factions on the left and the right.
But a Republican House would present a similar dynamic; Biden would be campaigning as a Democratic President fighting for both himself and for a Democratic Congress. I think also that there is a new Democratic coalition we could call the Obama coalition. I believe it can be sustained like the Roosevelt coalition was. I think Republicans realize this, and that is one reason they are so heavily into voter suppression and election subversion. Unless they can rig the system to their advantage, they could be marginalized at the national level well into the next decade.
James E Powell
@Geminid:
If you want to defend Ryan & his completely unhelpful remarks, do it on the merits instead of dicing word choices. The phrase “make a point of” mirrors the comment to which I responded. Ryan also has a history. The linked article said “critical of” & “faulted” and you want to argue about the difference between that and “slammed”? Is there a difference worth arguing about?
Ryan shouldn’t say a single negative thing about Biden or any Democratic efforts. It doesn’t help him or Biden or any Democrat running for office in a contested state or district. He’s got to be 100% aimed at Republicans.
dww44
@Kay:
If there’s a path to a climate change bill then they should try to find it. Not for the politics but for the necessity of it. We cannot afford to walk away from climate legislation again. The Dems in the Senate need to find a way.
Geminid
@James E Powell: I still think “slammed” is an exaggeration. And if the history you talk about is Ryan’s effort along with Moulton and Rice to challenge Nancy Pelosi’s Speaker bid in 2018, all I’ll say is that she got over it and you can too.
Fake Irishman
@Major Major Major Major:
I’m more in your camp on this one. I very much think there is scope for a deal, though plenty can go south. Notice how Sienna also worked out deals on closing cap gains loopholes and drug pricing, which was an indicator she was working in reasonably good faith, no matter how infuriating her preening is.
Martin
Not sure the plague year really had much to do with it. Turns out a lot of the local supply chain problems were solved by charging shipping companies $100 a day their container sat in the port. Suddenly a whole bunch of companies decided to go get their shit.
The pandemic seems like it was really just a good excuse to do some arbitrage. Given the tight labor market, it was more profitable for retailers to sell you a good later than it was to pay a driver now, provided the ports were willing to warehouse the goods for free. Same for energy – once you took away the excuse from investors to hold back supply (by opening the SPR) everything sorted itself right out.
Another Scott
@Geminid:
Bob Goodlatte (of Virginia) killed the Senate immigration reform bill in the House committee he chaired. Greg Sargent at WaPo has a good rundown (from 2013).
Too many people want to forget Goodlatte’s hands being all over the bloody knife.
Cheers,
Scott.