Charting an #Omicron infection. The amount of virus that builds up in someone’s body is known as viral load.
In general, people are thought to be most infectious when their viral loads are high https://t.co/LGJUDsBuJH— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 22, 2022
Since people are asking:
… Research suggests that the original version of the coronavirus and early variants had an incubation period of about five days, on average. The Delta variant seems to move faster, with an average incubation period of about four days. Omicron is swifter still, with an incubation period of roughly three days, according to a recent C.D.C. study.
The amount of virus that builds up in someone’s body is known as viral load. In general, people are thought to be most infectious when their viral loads are high.
In a recent study of the Alpha and Delta variants, researchers found that people tended to reach their peak viral loads about three days after infection and clear the virus about six days after that, on average.
Whether Omicron follows the same pattern remains to be seen. In one preliminary study, researchers found that Omicron infections were about a day shorter than Delta infections and resulted in slightly lower peak viral loads, on average. But the difference might be due to higher rates of pre-existing immunity — as a result of vaccination or prior infection — among the people who were infected with Omicron. Another research team found that among vaccinated people with breakthrough infections, Omicron and Delta produced similar levels of infectious virus…
Earlier in the pandemic, people were advised to use a rapid test five to seven days after a potential exposure to the virus. Given Omicron’s shorter incubation period, many experts now recommend taking a rapid test two to four days after a potential exposure. (They also recommend taking at least two rapid tests, about a day apart, in order to increase the odds of detecting an infection.)
People who are testing to reduce the risk of transmitting the virus to others, for example at an upcoming gathering, should test as close as possible to the event itself, experts said…
All-time peak yesterday, 158,000 US Covid hospitalizations, represent 2 opposite geographic trends:
Hospitalizations and ICU admissions are increasing in the West and South, decreasing in the Northeast and Midwesthttps://t.co/wQo7Wp58q0 by @LaurenLeatherby @albertsun pic.twitter.com/uUSy6x0M0l— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) January 21, 2022
Three new U.S. studies offer more evidence that COVID-19 vaccines are standing up to omicron, at least among people who got booster shots. https://t.co/1ZLkshk0o5
— AP Health & Science (@APHealthScience) January 21, 2022
Covid hospitalizations are falling in the Northeast but rising in other parts of the US https://t.co/hgNmS2ZE30
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) January 23, 2022
Clear & present danger that — as has happened previously in this #pandemic — a drop in new cases will lead to complacency & cavalier behavior, even as hospitals remain full and #COVID19 deaths mount. https://t.co/tdMnFH8dWR
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) January 22, 2022
2 years ago today: Trump says he's not worried about a pandemic after the first U.S. case of coronavirus. "We have it totally under control … It's going to be just fine" pic.twitter.com/TiJQT8bykP
— BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk) January 22, 2022
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Latest on global distribution of #Omicron from https://t.co/PGzJWRqfXT shows that it dominates, in terms of % of all recent #SARSCoV2 samples genetically sequenced:
Africa 98%
Asia 77%
Europe 88%
North America 91%
South America 85.5% pic.twitter.com/490nSaKVco— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) January 22, 2022
China's Beijing orders more COVID tests as cases mount before Olympics https://t.co/dIpWCeoAIO pic.twitter.com/fLSYY5CKVW
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 23, 2022
… Nine locally transmitted cases were found in Beijing on Jan. 22, the National Health Commission said on Sunday, of which six were in the city’s Fengtai district.
Fengtai will organise nucleic acid tests for COVID-19 for all of its residents on Sunday, district health authorities said.
Authorities have asked residents of “risky areas,” including a neighbourhood of Fengtai, to not leave the city, a local government spokesman said at a Sunday news conference, adding that Fengtai residents have been asked to avoid mass gatherings.
Beijing city has also asked residents to proactively conduct nucleic acid tests if they find themselves with COVID-19-like symptoms within 14 days of receiving any deliveries from overseas, local authorities said in a statement dated Saturday.
Authorities have suggested Beijing’s first case of the Omicron variant of the novel coronavirus could have arrived via a package from Canada…
Mainland China reported 56 new COVID-19 cases on Jan. 22, down from 63 a day earlier, the National Health Commission said.
Of the new cases, 19 were locally transmitted, versus 23 a day earlier, it said.
The number of new asymptomatic cases, which China does not classify as confirmed cases, fell to 34 from 43.
There were no new fatalities, leaving the death toll at 4,636.
As of Jan. 22, mainland China had confirmed 105,603 cases.
I always enjoy @BeijingPalmer's weekly China Brief, but this week was especially good:
"The idea that COVID-19 could survive a journey through the international mail system and then infect a parcel opener in China is absurd."https://t.co/AyqCUMfzFV
— B. Allen-Ebrahimian (@BethanyAllenEbr) January 20, 2022
To quote an ancient Western sage: It’s not what we *don’t* know — it’s what we *do* know, that ain’t so:
… Meanwhile, city authorities claim that omicron could have arrived in the capital via an international package and are urging caution in opening overseas mail—a worrying response. First, it doubles down on a nonsensical theory that Chinese media and disinformation campaigns have pushed since early in the pandemic to argue that COVID-19 originated in the United States. (Many of these claims have focused on frozen food.)…
Do Chinese officials believe their own claims? I think at least some of them do, but if they must constantly perform this excessive caution and hostility toward outsiders it doesn’t matter what they believe. Crackpot theories about the origins of COVID-19 and its spread have to be maintained inside the system. Moreover, once authorities have invested time and effort in certain measures, it’s hard to give them up: Think of how obsessive sanitizing has lingered in the West despite proof that it does little against COVID-19.
The other concerning aspect of the mail transmission theory is what it might be covering up. As with the case of an omicron outbreak in the port of Dalian, the claims about a contaminated package indicate that authorities don’t know where the infection in Beijing originated. That is unusual: Aided by heavy surveillance, China’s test-and-trace policies have generally been very effective since the initial COVID-19 outbreak was brought under control. At least one omicron case has slipped through the net, and quite likely more…
Coronavirus: ‘Exponential’ outbreak of #Omicron triggers lockdowns in Hong Kong housing areas. HK health authorities ordered a 5-day lockdown for a second block of apartments in a public housing area where ~105 Covid cases were confirmed https://t.co/Kv3I8VIkwS
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 23, 2022
India's COVID-19 cases rise by 333,533 in last 24 hours – govt https://t.co/HOwh3Tg4ca pic.twitter.com/523qRtgOKc
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 23, 2022
S.Korea reports second-highest COVID count ahead of holiday https://t.co/dBkASLL2WG pic.twitter.com/Yq5ZqapHbd
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 23, 2022
Covid: New Zealand PM Ardern cancels wedding amid Omicron wave https://t.co/iy8icu8uh7
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) January 23, 2022
Kiribati was one of the world’s last covid-free places. Now it’s under lockdown. https://t.co/2xMkWwCZTM
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) January 23, 2022
Russia reported a record number of new coronavirus infections Sunday for the third day runninghttps://t.co/flHQgmkDFS
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) January 23, 2022
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The CDC has updated their COVID data for December. They show that during the rapid spread of Omicron, vaccinated people experienced more breakthrough infections but were still much less likely to be infected than the unvaccinated. https://t.co/ctR5bRGJiA pic.twitter.com/Oppzfkr7BT
— Kevin ? Glass (@KevinWGlass) January 22, 2022
When will the Covid wave be over? 4 numbers to keep an eye on:
1. Number of new daily cases
2. The Reff (The effective reproduction number, or Reff), determines how many people, on average, each case infects
3. % of positive tests
4. Number hospitalized https://t.co/Wsmb0fK0Xx— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 22, 2022
From an entertaining *and* informative thread:
This article is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read and for the WSJ Opinion Page, that’s some rarefied bullshit air to breathe.
Let’s start with the authors’ facile, incorrect understanding of how variants evolve. https://t.co/QXhgku9yeZ
— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) January 12, 2022
Never mind that four major VOCs (alpha, beta, gamma, delta) arose through antigenic drift in largely unvaccinated populations. We don’t know where omicron came from but most hypothesize either persistence in an immunocompromised host or spillback into an unknown animal reservoir.
— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) January 12, 2022
But wait! The authors, one of whom is a lawyer/entrepreneur and author of a book called “Woke, Inc.” and the other is an otolaryngologist are here to tell everyone that this is a “familiar notion” in my field! pic.twitter.com/dU7Eg9yOLo
— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) January 12, 2022
Just like there’s a vaccine for COVID, which does reduce risk of infection & does reduce transmission, especially when used with other NPIs while prevalence is high. Slowing the spread is unquestionably safer, whether measured in money, potential for new variants, or human lives.
— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) January 12, 2022
Study suggests the impact of #SARSCoV2 on the brain is opening paths of knowledge about #Alzheimers & #Parkinsons & various forms of mental illness. Long #COVID19 teaches that many chronic diseasesay have viral origins. https://t.co/x1Oc6xVm3p
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) January 20, 2022
Covid has been linked to headaches & altered mental status in hospitalized kids. Among children who tested—or were presumed positive for SARSCoV2— 44% developed neurological symptoms & were more likely to be admitted to ICUs than kids w/o the symptoms https://t.co/VrIpoQU2Zk pic.twitter.com/SNPF8B0mnG
— delthia ricks ?? (@DelthiaRicks) January 21, 2022
======
Anti-vaccine rally in Washington DC comes despite successes in fighting #COVID19.
The scientific case for vaccines recommended by health officials remains as solid as ever. But #antivaxx propaganda has found its way into many reaches of American life.https://t.co/o0BtDoz65m
— MicrobesInfect (@MicrobesInfect) January 23, 2022
Food banks are experiencing a critical shortage of volunteers as the omicron variant frightens people away. Volunteers are shying away from their usual shifts, and companies and schools that supply groups of volunteers are canceling their participation. https://t.co/iH3Nfywh9k
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 22, 2022
Great example here of the acela corridor phenomenon re: covid takes I mentioned the other day
Maybe it's true in that corner of the country that it's only partisan Dems that are politicizing things (I doubt it, but I don't live there) https://t.co/7guPBJ1cmM
— Mike Black (@MikeBlack114) January 8, 2022
Observer in Louisiana:
But you are ignoring reality in most of the rest of the country by making that asinine statement
Scores of lunatic GOP AGs (including mine) filing suit against every possible restriction or mandate they can think of, DeSantis questioning vaccination, etc
The piece frames unvaxxed folks as some poor unreachable minority
It’s half of the fucking state population down here. That’s not something you can just hand wave away
The piece frames unvaxxed folks as some poor unreachable minority
It’s half of the fucking state population down here. That’s not something you can just hand wave away
Love to see a bunch of political pundits and the expertise guy opine on why political considerations should be the key thing to consider in the midst of a pandemic still killing 2,000 people a day while public health folks are talking about rationing care again
One less source for nervous Outbreak jokes, at least:
All the escaped monkeys have been accounted for following the crash of a pickup towing a trailer load of 100 of the animals, which collided with a dump truck on a Pennsylvania highway, authorities said. https://t.co/lPa8jUogg2
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 23, 2022
Baud
WSJ: The Facebook for gentlemen of means.
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
NYSDOH: There were 888 new cases of COVID-19 on 1/22.
I spent 10 minutes standing in a line in Kohls yesterday, waiting to drop off an Amazon return, when I realized I didn’t have my cell phone with me to display the QR code. I was wearing an N95 mask but with omicron I’m not sure that was enough protection. I think I may keep the package just so I don’t have to go back into Kohls.
p.a.
I wonder how many efforts to reach & vax underserved American populations are being sabotaged by the ‘usual suspect’ state governments. If we can reach those populations then we could feel more comfortable about Fox, OAN, Newsmax etc leading their followers down to the graveyard.
YY_Sima Qian
On 1/22 China reported 19 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 7 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
At Shaanxi Province 71 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There are currently 363 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.
At Yuncheng in Shanxi Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case, a person arrived from Xi’an in Shaanxi.
Guangdong Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 8 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 57 active domestic confirmed & 7 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Guangxi “Autonomous” Region 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 7 active domestic confirmed (6 at Dongxing in Fangchenggang & 1 at Ningming County in Chongzuo) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Chongzuo) cases in the province.
Tianjin Municipality reported 5 new domestic confirmed cases (all mild, all at Jinnan District), all from persons already under centralized quarantine. 17 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 339 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases (all presumed Omicron). 12 residential compounds are currently at High Risk. 23 residential compounds & 3 villages are currently at Medium Risk.
Beijing Municipality reported 9 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic, 9 mild & 1 moderate) & 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases. Of the 12 new domestic positive cases, 8 traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine since 1/19 or 1/20 & 4 are residents near the cold storage warehouses. There currently are 30 active domestic confirmed cases (3 Omicron & 27 Delta) & 9 active domestic asymptomatic cases (in 3 separate clusters, likely via 3 different introductions) in the city. 1 residential compound is currently at High Risk. 1 warehouse is currently at Medium Risk.
At Dalian in Liaoning Province there currently are 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases (all Omicron) in the city, part of the transmission chain from Tianjin.
At Shanghai Municipality there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 20 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 shop is currently at Medium Risk.
At Jiangsu Province there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Nanjing) & 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases (both at Wuxi) in the province.
At Zhejiang Province there currently are 75 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. A factory & a village at Jinhua remain at Medium Risk.
Henan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case. 30 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 910 active domestic confirmed cases in the province. As the province does not break down the recovered cases by location, I can no longer track the counts of actives cases at different cities in the province.
Mengla County in Sipsongpanna Prefecture, Yunnan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed (2 at Dehong Prefecture, 5 at Kunming & 1 at Sipsongpanna Prefecture) & 6 active domestic asymptomatic (all at Sipsongpanna Prefecture) cases in the province.
Imported Cases
On 1/22, China reported 37 new imported confirmed cases (14 previously asymptomatic), 27 imported asymptomatic cases, 3 imported suspect cases:
Overall in China, 197 confirmed cases recovered (70 imported), 22 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (all imported) & 8 were reclassified as confirmed cases (all imported), & 3,061 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 2,920 active confirmed cases in the country (1,137 imported), 10 in serious condition (all domestic), 778 active asymptomatic cases (727 imported), 7 suspect cases (all imported). 49,363 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 1/22, 2,964.37M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 3.695M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 1/23, Hong Kong reported 140 new positive cases, 15 imported & 125 domestic (94 are residents in a cluster of buildings at Tsuen Wan). Another > 100 cases are preliminarily positive.
On 1/23, Taiwan reported 89 new positive cases, 37 imported & 52 domestic (including 30 cases from the factory outbreak at Taoyuan & 15 cases from the port outbreak at Kaohsiung). There are now cases in 8 cities & counties on the island.
mrmoshpotato
@Baud: Tom Nichols: The Assclown For Assclowns of Means
HeartlandLiberal
There was controversy over wearing masks in the chess world yesterday.
Daniil Dubov forfeited his game against Anish Giri after the Russian GM refused to play with a face mask. It was a request by the organisers after someone Dubov was in contact with tested positive for COVID-19.
So, even chess grandmasters at the highest level can be maskholes, it seems. Dubov claimed that testing negative was agreed on to NOT wear a mask. The arbiters/organizers insisted on overabundance of caution because someone he was in close contact with had tested positive.
This was in the famous Tata Steel, an annual chess tournament held in January in Wijk aan Zee, the Netherlands.
Yesterday was round 7. I watched live as Fabiano Caruana waited patiently while Jan-Krzysztof Duda let his clock wind down to under three minutes, before finally acknowledging his position was totally lost and resigning. They were the only pair still playing in the empty room.
I also watched the live opening of five time World Chess Champion Magnus Carlsen’s game against Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa, a 16 year old chess prodigy from India. Praggna opened pawn d4, and the commenters laughed out loud and said he had blundered against Carlsen and should just resign now. So there is humor in the world of chess, too. Carlsen won the game, but after a long struggle in which Praggna overlooked a couple of moves that could have turned the tide slightly in his favor.
YY_Sima Qian
Things are looking a bit precarious for Hong Kong & Taiwan, Omicron might be too transmissive for their NPI measures to contain, but we will have to see. Hong Kong is vaccination rate is not all that great (only 70% of eligible population fully vaccinated, w/ low boosting rate). Taiwan is about the same. That is too low for vaccination to be much help in curbing Omicron transmission.
Meanwhile, cities in Heilongjiang Province in Manchuria have started mass screening of all residents, despite having no reported positive cases. Apparently it is a precautionary measure (& an expensive one even w/ batch testing) to make sure there isn’t any cryptic transmission in the communities that will burst into significant outbreaks, & ruin Chinese New Year for entire towns & cities. They do not want a repeat of the outbreaks a year ago.
Cermet
That is really good news the North-East has declining Covid rates; as to some very pleasant news, Green Bay got knocked out of the playoff’s – that’s good knowing that “self vaccinated” (via utter bull shit lying) Rogers lost! Good news all around.
Suzanne
Amir, Amir, you are missed.
New Deal democrat
At this point my focus is on what happens after the Omicron peak. In South Africa and the UK, cases declined sharply by about 50% before the rate of decline moderated. The same pattern of a flattening decline after a 50% downturn may be starting in Ireland. Canada is just at about the 50% mark now. Deaths have turned down in South Africa, and possibly Ireland and Canada.
The same pattern of a long tail looks like it is occurring in the Northeastern US, and specifically NY and NJ, where in the past several days the rate of decline in cases has lessened after a quick 40% drop. Cases are down at least slightly in the other 3 Census regions as well, with MD and PR having a sharp 60% drop with no sign of slowing yet. Deaths are still increasing, at about the 2000 mark now.
Some States are still showing sharp increases: AL, AK, AZ, HI, ID, KY, NV, NM, ND, TN, WI, and WY.
We are probably going to escape with a (still horrible) death toll about equal to that from Delta, peaking in about 3 weeks.
The US has been about one month behind South Africa. If we have the same pattern on the way down, by late February the US will be down to about 200,000 cases per day. After that it is terra incognito, depending on whether or not yet another new variant appears, and just how thoroughly Delta and Omicron have provided resistance to the vast unvaccinated masses of COVIDiots. Like a few experts I have read, I am hopeful for a spring respite like last year’s.
lowtechcyclist
Has cacti been around in the past few days? A few days ago, he (I think) said he’d gotten clobbered by Covid. I haven’t noticed him here since. Been wondering how he’s holding up.
Ken
@Baud: DougJ sometimes hits a problem where he pitches a parody, and the NYT comes up with the same thing within a few days. Maybe that’s why there’s no WSJ pitchbot? Impossible to get ahead of the madness?
marklar
If one of those escaped monkeys had been hit by a truck, would that have resulted in rhesus pieces?
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: If you look at the Boston wastewater counts, though, you don’t really see that long tail. So that makes me wonder if the long tail is a function of data being integrated over a larger area where the peaks happen at different times in different locations–even within Massachusetts, the peak has hit with different lags in the various counties.
Percysowner
@NeenerNeener: I’ve been lucky, every time I return to Kohl’s it’s been pretty dead. I tend to go at 8:30 right before closing time and I’m guessing my store is just dead in general.
I’ve been double masking for a while, even though I’m vaxxed and boosted. I really don’t want any of this.
NeenerNeener
@Percysowner: I usually don’t drive after dark (lousy night vision now) so it never occurred to me to go in before they close. I’ll keep that in mind next time I have to return something. I was going in when they opened assuming that the viral load in the store was lower after the overnight cleaning but since all the masking and cleaning standards have been relaxed that may not be true anymore.
I just got off the phone with Amazon and they’re giving me a break this time. I don’t have to return this thing after all or pay for it, since they screwed up my order to begin with. Now I just have to wait and see if I have any omicron symptoms this coming week.
New Deal democrat
@Matt McIrvin:
“that makes me wonder if the long tail is a function of data being integrated over a larger area where the peaks happen at different times in different locations”
If that were the case, wouldn’t we expect to see the opposite – a slow, somewhat erratic decline followed by a faster one?
Guess we’ll see in a week or two.
Btw, Charles Gaba is doing a detailed update tomorrow of his breakdown of cases and deaths by county and political affiliation. That should shed extra light on whether relatively unvaccinated counties have actually gotten off more lightly with Omicron.
pajaro
Maryland is on the downslope, mercifully.
Our highest daily infection day was 12/30, with 14,000 cases. On Friday we were at 4800. Our highest positivity date was 1/4, where we were at 31%–on Friday we were at 12%. Our peak hospitalization date was 1/13, where we had 3400 hospitalizations. We’re at 2600 as of Friday.
I know quite a few people, some in my family, who were infected this go around. Those over five were all vaxed, and boostered if eligible. No one, friends or family, has needed to go to the hospital.
laura
Get well Amir Khalid. Come back. You are missed.
NotMax
Locally,
Elsewhere,
YY_Sima Qian
I must say the whole COVID-19 via international express mail thing has caused a much bigger brouhaha outside of China than in. Announcement by Beijing authorities (who still only suspects mail as a vector) prompted a couple of days worth of newspaper headlines (most surprisingly non-alarmist) & a couple of days worth of discussion on social media, then everyone has moved on. A year & half ago, when fomite transmission via international shipping was 1st raised by Chinese authorities as a potential vector, some people in China were quite concerned. Now, people just take note as a reminder for something else to watch out for. Some people have stopped buying imported frozen meats & seafood, others have not (like me). Most people (myself included) have continued to purchase imported goods through online shopping platforms, including informal “daigou” channels (where one places an order for things like baby formula, packaged food, clothing & toys on a privately run Taobao APP portal, & the person overseas goes off to Costco/Whole Foods/Saks 5th Ave./Disney Store, or whatever European/East Asian equivalent to make the purchase & express parcel the items to China).
Overseas, to my bemusement, all kinds of commentators are seizing on it to pontificate about inner motivations of the CCP regime, in dubious rehashing of Kremlinology, which at least in this case I frankly find absurd. Notice again the pontificators are not health care experts or epidemiologists. The relevant experts have been more guarded in their statements, some variation of “fomite transmission is very unlikely, but not impossible”, which is scientifically correct.
It’s not like the Beijing Authorities have not looked hard at all of the more probable vectors. Hundreds of F1 & F2 close contacts have been traced, > 12K persons deemed to have had some chance of crossing paths w/ the index case have been identified, all (except 2, a coworker & a family member) have continued to test negative so far. Samples taken from the outer & inner packaging, as well as multiple pages of the document inside have tested positive, w/ telltale mutations of Omicron from RT-PCR testings. The index case claims to have only touched the 1st page. Other letters/documents sent by the same source in Canada have also tested positive (outer & inner packaging, as well as content). Genetic sequence of the index case is not close enough to any of the recent or ongoing outbreaks in China, nor any of the recent imported positive cases into Beijing, to be part of the same transmission chain, & is similar to strains prevalent in N. America & Singapore in Dec. China sequences every single cases, & phylogenetic analysis is a power tool for epidemiological investigation. The growing number of cases in Beijing is coming from the cold chain warehouse cluster (Delta) in the S & SW suburbs of the city. The very small Omicron cluster in the tech district in the NW part of the city has not expanded. What is that famous Sherlock Holmes quote about what might appear to be improbable must be the truth, if the impossible has been eliminated?
I recall an even more unbelievable case out of Shanghai in Nov. A flight from Poland 1st landed at Taiyuan in Shanxi Provinces (where 3 passengers ultimately tested positive) & then Beijing (where another passenger tested positive). The plane sat at Beijing overnight, where the cabins were theoretically decontaminated, then flew to Shanghai. A passenger on the flight to Shanghai (sitting close to the seat of 1 of the positive cases coming from Poland) tested positive a week later, also infecting 2 of his local contacts. All of the contact tracing & expanded testing failed to turn up any leads, until genetic sequencing gave a clue, as the sequence of the domestic case matched that of an imported positive case at Taiyuan. The only circumstantial evidence was the phylogenetic analysis. That case failed to kick up a storm overseas, no commentators accused Shanghai authorities of grasping at straws. Of course, if the flight had come from Canada or the US, & not Poland, the reaction in the Anglo-Sphere might have been different…
The scientific way to determine if the Beijing authorities’ theory is correct is for Canada to test the people who had handled the letter, see if any test positive, sequence the positive cases to see if they match the index case of the Beijing Omicron cluster. Unfortunately, I think the trust level between Beijing & Ottawa is too low for such a collaboration. Canadian press is already spinning the story as “dastardly commies throwing baseless accusations at Canada”. Any effort by Canadian health authorities to test the theory would be tarred & feathered as “kowtowing to Beijing”. & if by chance the results prove Beijing authorities’ hypothesis? There is no political upside…
There has been a tendency by local authorities to lazily state that a new outbreak is caused by foreign introduction, if phylogenetic analysis shows that the genetic sequences do not match that from any recent or ongoing domestic outbreaks. It is a reasonable educated guess, but the onus is still on the authorities to investigate further and develop at least a circumstantial case for a specific vector.
The relative risk of fomite transmission (compared to droplet/aerosol) might be 1/100,000, fomite transmission via international shipping might be 1/10,000,000 (for arguments sake). However, how many millions of parcels/letters enter China everyday? How millions of Chinese are opening such parcels/letters everyday?
I don’t think people outside of China understands the risk/reward calculus of local Chinese authorities under the “Dynamic Zero COVID” strategy. They will try to close any possible vector of transmission, no matter how unlikely. Any cluster will require tracing hundreds or thousands of contacts, expanded individual screening of 10s of thousands, batched mass screening of sub-districts & districts, lock down of businesses & residential compounds. All of that cost come out of budget of local governments. Sending out an advisory asking millions of people to spray alcohol on international packages before opening costs the authorities nothing.
James Palmer has some interesting insight into the elite political of the CCP regime, via his contacts. On public health & epidemiological investigation, I don’t think he is better than any decently informed layman.
WaterGirl
@lowtechcyclist: Never fear, Cacti was commenting last night in the M&M thread.
Lacuna Synecdoche
@mrmoshpotato:
I actually clicked on the op-ed Nichols linked, and got as far as reading the byline – “by Matt Bai” – before I thought “Jesus H. Fucking Christ, not this asshat again! Why does anyone still employ Matt Fucking Bai, who’s always fucking wrong about fucking everything.”
I mean, seriously, Matt Bai is the fucking king of idiotic ‘centrist’ hot takes.
Lacuna Synecdoche
@Lacuna Synecdoche (i.e., Me):
Added a link to support that observation.
Sloane Ranger
Saturday in the UK we had 76,807 new reported cases. The 7-day moving average is down 22.2% but these figures are inaccurate as they only include figures for England and Northern Ireland. Wales has not reported on Saturdays for some time and Scotland has just joined them. Plus weekend office closures. Cases by nation,
England – 73,331 (down 12,571)
Northern Ireland – 3476 (down 92).
Deaths – There were 297 deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported yesterday. The rolling 7-day average is up by 2.4%. Weekend warning applies (see above). 262 deaths were in England, 5 in Northern Ireland, 30 in Scotland. Wales does not report on Saturdays.
Testing – not updated at weekends.
Hospitalisations – Not updated at weekends.
Vaccinations – As of Friday, 21st, 52,203,675 people had had 1 shot of a vaccine, 48,115,948 had had 2 and 36,821,284 had had a 3rd shot/booster. In percentage terms, this means that 90.8% of all UK residents aged 12+ had had 1 shot, 83.7% had had 2 and 64% had had a 3rd shot/booster.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
Greece: still a rough time. Yesterday the reports said 18,333 new cases, 73 fatalities, with 668 intubated ICU patients. The Worldometer charts don’t make for pleasant viewing: new cases are still far above the pre-Omicron peak even if they’re down to about one third of the Omicron peak, current infections still number about a quarter million (albeit down from a high of about 400,000, when previous spikes never led to a current-infection number of higher than about 82,000), and people are dying in this wave at a rate equal to the worst of the previous spikes, only that number isn’t dropping the way it did before.
(Sources: Kathimerini, Worldometers)
Or put another way: the percentage of people dying may be lower when compared to the total number of infections, but the pandemic is still killing people at roughly the same rate it was before during the peaks of the pre-Omicron waves.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: Not if the earliest peaks are in the most highly populated areas, as they have been. But time will tell.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: …The other alternative is that the long tail is the result of some kind of decoupling between the amount of virus circulating and the presentation of new cases, maybe because some people take longer to feel sick enough to seek attention or test themselves.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Test and trace has been broken in Canada for a while now,
Even testing has been broken for about a month now.
If you think you have Covid, you are supposed to act like you have Covid, because home tests don’t exist and if you are lucky, you might get into a Covid test site after a 6 hour wait.
rikyrah
@Suzanne:
He certainly is.
Check in, Amir.
Another Scott
Nothing to panic about (panic is never helpful), but yet another reminder that the pandemic is not static and the virus continues to evolve. It’s not over.
AlJazeera (from yesterday):
(Emphasis added.)
Cheers,
Scott.
Ascap_scab
Has anyone seen a breakout of deaths by alpha, beta, gamma, delta, omicron?
JaneE
For years now I have been saying that the GOP systematically wants to increase body counts, no matter what the issue or problem is. They cannot be unaware that their preferred methods of handling things lead to more dead, pretty consistently over the last half century or so. It may be hard to quantify except in retrospect, but the bias towards more dead Americans is almost always there.
It may be hard to justify saying that SS saved lives, but Medicare certainly did. The ACA did too. Things like needle exchanges save lives – ones the GOP in general wants gone. Anti-vax and anti-mask and anti-any public health orders will kill people – maybe just one or two, maybe one or two thousand.
Why do you think there is a difference in life expectancy by state? It almost always boils down to years under Republican governance – that shortens lives. The GOP now opposes those things which support keeping people alive and well. EPA, OSHA, state and local regulations too. They didn’t used to be quite so against clean air or safe workplaces, but greed and the greed of their donor class appears to have won out.
When Democrats say “Vote like your life depended on it” they are not exaggerating all that much.
RaflW
A one word substitution and a brief snip is all that’s needed.
Do Republican officials believe their own claims? I think at least some of them do, but if they must constantly perform this … hostility toward outsiders it doesn’t matter what they believe. Crackpot theories about the origins of COVID-19 and its spread have to be maintained inside the system.
Elizabelle
Waving at Amir, and hoping you are well enough to come back, soonest.
Always appreciate Anne Laurie’s informative posts, but reading them more quickly in hope our beloved Amir is back. Guitars and all.
Another Scott
A quick thread on what is known thus far about Omicron variant BA.2:
(via CT_Bergstrom)
Cheers,
Scott.