People who got the first two shots but aggressively oppose a third one baffle me. The computer chip is already in there, might as well get the software update https://t.co/foPvFKOWfD
— James Medlock (@jdcmedlock) January 24, 2022
COVID-19 cases are falling in parts of the United States hit hardest by the fast-spreading Omicron variant, according to a Reuters analysis of public health data. Experts say this indicates cases might have peaked in the country overall https://t.co/sFwG2QMpeq pic.twitter.com/T8tBYitq9p
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 25, 2022
Even as COVID-19 cases drop and hospitalizations show signs of plateauing in hard-hit pockets of the United States, the still-rising death toll from the Omicron variant highlights the trail of loss that follows every virus surge https://t.co/iYALSJHOBw pic.twitter.com/n2HzRq6aBF
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 25, 2022
Hospitals are increasingly asking staff who have the coronavirus to work while potentially infectious, underscoring how the hyper-transmissible omicron variant has sidelined employees, overwhelmed resources and upended nearly two years of strict protocols. https://t.co/PbQdjmYdY2
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) January 23, 2022
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World health officials are offering hope that the ebbing omicron surge could give way to a more manageable phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. But they warn of difficult weeks ahead and the possibility of an even more dangerous variant emerging.https://t.co/Bb5tQHgnLQ
— The Associated Press (@AP) January 24, 2022
… The encouraging trends after two years of coronavirus misery have brought a noticeably hopeful tone from health experts. Rosy predictions have crumbled before, but this time they are backed by what could be called omicron’s silver lining: The highly contagious variant will leave behind extremely high levels of immunity.
On Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci talked on ABC “This Week” about a “best-case scenario” where COVID-19 would fall to manageable levels so the United States could get “back to a degree of normality.”
And on Monday, the World Health Organization issued a statement anticipating an end to the “emergency phase” of the pandemic this year and saying that the omicron variant “offers plausible hope for stabilization and normalization.”
Both Fauci and the WHO’s Europe regional director, Dr. Hans Kluge, cautioned that new variants are likely to emerge, but with vaccination, new drug therapies and — during surges — testing and masks, the world could reach a less disruptive level of disease in which the virus is, as Fauci put it, “essentially integrated into the general respiratory infections that we have learned to live with.”
In the U.S., new cases are averaging a still extraordinarily high 680,000 a day, down from an all-time peak of over 800,000 a little more than a week ago…
One influential model projects that nearly all nations will be past the omicron wave by mid-March, including China and other countries with “zero COVID” policies. The wave will leave behind high levels of immunity — both from infection and vaccination — that could lead to low levels of transmission for many weeks or months.
“What do we end up with at the end of this?” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the University of Washington, who developed the closely watched Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model. “We end up with the highest levels of global immunity that we’ve seen in the pandemic.”
The model estimates that 57% of the world’s population already has been infected with the virus at least once.
Another research group, which combines several models and shares the projections with the White House, predicts a strong decline in U.S. infections by April, unless a new variant emerges that can sidestep the growing levels of immunity…
Excellent visualizations at the link:
How fast is the progress of Covid vaccination around the world?https://t.co/oyjX2TML6W
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) January 24, 2022
After a weekend of mass #Covid testing in #Beijing, there is a lot more today. Whole housing communities are being told to be tested, in some cases twice in two days. Officials at one compound told me this was not because of infected residents but as a precaution. #China pic.twitter.com/dZs743Nsby
— Stephen McDonell (@StephenMcDonell) January 24, 2022
Japan panel to approve widening of COVID curbs https://t.co/BhYiEUehEg pic.twitter.com/eGgze6cDEF
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 25, 2022
S.Korea's daily COVID count tops 8,000 for first time amid Omicron spread https://t.co/grDMx58TCw pic.twitter.com/emSZ7kLBjS
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 25, 2022
Covid hits crucial Australian aid ship bound for tsunami-struck island https://t.co/swfvm72gcq
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) January 25, 2022
Russia set a fourth consecutive daily record for coronavirus infections Monday as the Omicron variant continues to spread across the countryhttps://t.co/OlRQ4UhqEI
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) January 24, 2022
The Russian Health Ministry has suspended orders of the country’s second coronavirus vaccine due to low demand nationwide, the Vedomosti business daily reported Tuesdayhttps://t.co/MCv4pFOosi
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) January 25, 2022
Anti-#vaccine protest in Brussels yesterday went violent, with attacks on the police that look familiar to those who watched Jan. 6 2021 attack on Capitol Hill. All over the West the prolonged #pandemic is spawning ever-more protest and violence. https://t.co/gLRCK8Glpp
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) January 24, 2022
How Covid disinformation has fuelled attacks on Czech doctors https://t.co/zxpVf0e5dn
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) January 25, 2022
Netherlands expected to ease COVID curbs despite record infections https://t.co/Z57SATJgk4 pic.twitter.com/so1ORvbu2y
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 25, 2022
Covid tests for fully vaccinated travellers arriving in England to be scrapped from 4am on 11 February, the UK government confirmshttps://t.co/JlutoZcMTG
— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) January 24, 2022
StatCan: COVID-19 led to more than half-a-year drop in life expectancy in 2020 https://t.co/rWyIbp6NKy
— CP24 (@CP24) January 25, 2022
I’m seeing #BoycottWalmart on every twitter sidebar — Wonder if the American anti-vaxxers will join their Canadian allies?
Walmart Canada is implementing vaccine passports at all locations in Quebec. No vaccine passports no food.#BoycottWalmart https://t.co/U5y0Kk0GXg
— Sikh For Truth (@SikhForTruth) January 24, 2022
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U.S. health officials are halting use of two COVID-19 antibody drugs because they don't work against the omicron variant.https://t.co/o5eCwy3Q9X
— AP Health & Science (@APHealthScience) January 24, 2022
Straight talk on a Covid endemic state, new @naturehttps://t.co/J16ZGVPX7m
by @ArisKatzourakis
"There is a widespread, rosy misconception that viruses evolve over time to become more benign." pic.twitter.com/m5iVumSUVS— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) January 25, 2022
Current vaccines teach T cells to fight #Omicron, report scientists at La Jolla Institute for Immunology. They studied the impact of Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, J&J & Novavax vaccines. Each can prompt the immune system to produce long-lasting T cells https://t.co/6rFttBVshr
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 25, 2022
The following is a summary of some recent studies on COVID-19. They include research that warrants further study to corroborate the findings and that has yet to be certified by peer review. https://t.co/QAOPY6cvEB
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) January 24, 2022
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#Omicron: Crisis standards of care have been activated in Idaho where medical care is now being rationed at overwhelmed hospitals https://t.co/aHaQeox0SX
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) January 25, 2022
Great Barrington Declaration co-author Sunetra Gupta now says ppl with Covid should not isolate, but should circulate freely in the community, because the best way to protect the elderly and the immunocompromised is by maintaining “herd immunity through constant reinfection.” pic.twitter.com/rhinKfPZxP
— James Surowiecki (@JamesSurowiecki) January 22, 2022
The infamous Great Barrington Declaration — I did read it, but I wouldn’t recommend it — was basically a lot of fancy words and footnotes dressing up what could be summarized are ‘Kill off the old and sickly *now*, and let the rest of us get on with our important lives.’ The ensuing months of criticism, not to mention global pandemic catastrophes, have not improved the rhetorical skills of its originators…
It’s an odd argument. If we have herd immunity, why are we going to be constantly reinfected? And if we’ve always got lots of infected people are walking around, how does that protect the elderly who are also going to be walking around?…
Yes, Covid will soon be endemic. But the fact that a disease, particularly a seasonal one, is endemic doesn’t mean there are no benefits to limiting its spread. And it certainly doesn’t mean that the best way to protect the “vulnerable” is by having ppl get constantly reinfected.
Gupta uses the phrase “herd immunity,” but she doesn’t mean that – if she did, she wouldn’t be talking about “constant reinfection.” It’s just a “scientific” way of saying “a tolerable level of Covid hospitalizations and deaths.”
And that’s fine – going back to “normal” was always going to mean saying we’re fine with 300 ppl a day (or whatever) dying of Covid. But at least be honest about that.
And, more important, don’t pretend that you want to end isolation rules for ppl with Covid because it’ll save lives, when you really want to end them because you think they’re just too much trouble.
“Herd immunity through constant reinfection” is one of those phrases that captures an entire bizarre ethos in just a few words.
Also worth remembering that Gupta co-wrote a paper in July 2020 suggesting that parts of the UK might have already reached herd immunity, which she argued might be possible in some cases with only 25% of the population infected. Needless to say, that was not correct.
it’s like being on the titanic and deciding what this world needs is more drowning. unbelievable.
— World Famous Art Thief (@CalmSporting) January 24, 2022
“They can have [Joe] Rogan or Young,” Neil Young wrote in a letter to his manager and label, “Not both." Young demands Spotify remove his music over "false information about vaccines" https://t.co/f1u4bDAu1L
— Rolling Stone (@RollingStone) January 24, 2022
https://t.co/cFhDGHV0BU pic.twitter.com/tMQIdCzl6S
— Alisha Grauso (@AlishaGrauso) January 24, 2022
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
432 new cases reported. Deaths now at 1672.
We’ve finally hit 70% of the local population vaccinated.
172 COVID cases in the hospital, 67% unvaccinated.
29 cases in the ICU, 76% unvaccinated
21 cases in the ICU are intubated, 76% unvaccinated
Baud
Lots of people are constantly on knife’s edge about feeling duped after trusting liberals because they are deeply afraid conservatives will make fun of them. In their minds, we promised that the first two shots would solve everything, antivaxxers and variants be damned. They won’t get fooled again.
Cermet
China is riding a tiger; obviously its vaccine must be pretty bad – most of their population is fully vaxxed and likely boosted yet they know that once Omicron gets established, game over. Unless they can out last Omicron (or any newer, faster spreading variant that arises) they are doomed to be nothing more then a vast pile of dry tinder waiting for the match.
Think that Omicron is the end stage of variants and they won’t get deadlier is whistling past the graveyard. The next variant could easily be more contagious and far deadlier; hoping for all our sakes that it isn’t but evolution baby – its the law (of the jungle.)
Snarki, child of Loki
The problem is switching vaccines between the “main” 2 shots and the “booster”.
because the “apple” chip and the “microsoft” chip fight each other. Don’t want that.
matt
In the case of Bill ‘Showbiz’ Maher, I think it’s the moral hazard thing that’s enabling him to self indulgently not to get the booster. He’s playing the odds, knowing he’ll get excellent treatment if he loses the bet. And your arm gets pretty sore.
Freemark
Supposedly we used to be a beacon if freedom to the world. Now we are just a beacon of teh stupid to those around the world. It’s perversely nice to know we aren’t the only country with people who believe Idiocracy is a future to aspire to, but why do we have to be ‘the beacon on the hill’ to those people.
Baud
@Freemark:
I still am.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: A lot of elderly right-wingers, particularly, got fully vaccinated in early 2021 before the right had completely unified behind being antivax. Opposing the booster is their way of saving face. If they get sick, they’re certainly in a better position than someone who never got vaccinated at all, so maybe it’s a dice roll they figure they can make.
debbie
Neil Young is seriously superior to Eric Clapton. Go, Neil, keep on rocking!
NorthLeft12
Once the definition of “fully vaccinated” is upgraded to three shots, the great majority of the dumbasses will comply in order to be able to do everything that the fully protected can do.
It’s easy to take this stand now because there is no downside to avoiding the booster…….besides the obvious threat to your own health and to those who you interact with of course. I just can’t stomach these selfish assholes much longer, and still stay a kind and caring human being. Getting very close to the “go and die already you miserable fucks” stage.
Matt McIrvin
@NorthLeft12:
Not if vaccine mandates are illegal, which they already are in some places. When the Rs get back in I expect a federal ban on them.
OzarkHillbilly
@matt: I guess he forgot that lots of people who got excellent treatment died anyway.
lowtechcyclist
@Cermet:
Yeah, we’ve had enough “just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water” moments with this plague that anyone who thinks Omicron is the final wave, well, I don’t have much respect for their thinking.
A year ago, the vaccines gave us hope that by summer, we’d be done with all this. At least that made sense, before we found out that a metric ton of Americans would gladly play Covid roulette to own the libs. Now, I just don’t see when or how this ends.
New Deal democrat
Little useful US data today, as the 7 day comparisons in most States are confounded by the lack of reporting over MLK day one week ago. Cases have continued to fall in the initially hard hit States making up the NYC and DC metro areas. Deaths increased to 2200, higher than the Delta peak.
Charles Gaba, who has been doing excellent work breaking down infections and deaths by rural vs. urban areas, States, counties, and partisan lean, updated his Omicron data yesterday:
https://acasignups.net/22/01/24/weekly-update-five-weeks-omicron-its-still-whole-new-ballgamebut-case-rates-are-already
Omicron has still struck “blue” areas harder than “red” ones, although the effect has faded somewhat.
More interestingly, the combined Delta + Omicron numbers (starting last July 1) broken down by % vaccinated by county, show almost equal infections across the spectrum, vs. less vaccinated counties having been hit twice as hard by Delta through October. In other words, Omicron has resulted in many more confirmed cases in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated areas. It appears that previous Delta infection provides resistance against Omicron. BUT, using the same metrics, deaths are still 4x higher from a Omicron in the least vaccinated areas. Meaning, vaccinations were excellent protection against severe cases of Omicron.
Barring another variant out of the blue, I am increasingly hopeful, just like Dr. Fauci, that between vaccinations plus previous Delta or Omicron infection, this spring will almost revert to normal.
Ten Bears
Maher ~ the guy’s made millions claiming atheism but never passes up the opportunity to remind us he is of (((God’s Chosen People)))? As credible as the guy who fellates himself on the radio …
lowtechcyclist
@New Deal democrat:
Yeah, but since we know immunity wears off, whether it comes from vaccination or a case of Covid, we’ll probably be back in the soup by summer.
And it’ll catch everyone off guard yet again.
satby
@Matt McIrvin: I know some elderly right wingers like that. I know more younger people, like my sons and the girls at work, who got the first two shots, and are pretty willing to get a yearly one, but balk at an every 6 month one. They figure they’re fairly well protected until a immunization comes out that is tweaked to be more specifically effective against newer mutations. Well, that’s the excuse they use anyway.
NotMax
A bit more on the Brussels flouts.
Robert Sneddon
@lowtechcyclist: When I was receiving my booster in early November (half-dose Moderna mRNA) the lady carrying out my injection mentioned that the teams working on the vaccination/booster program had been advised they might be asked to work on a followup booster vaccination campaign some time in the spring of 2022. There’s been no official notification of this going ahead here in Scotland as yet.
Robert Sneddon
@New Deal democrat:
At least one blogger suggested early on in the Omicron variant wave that it was so different structurally to the original Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 virus and its most common widespread variants (Alpha and Delta) that it was probably better to call it COVID-21, a new disease, rather than son-of-son-of-COVID-19.
laura
Thinking of Amir Khalid this morning. Hope is getting well and returns soon. He is missed.
YY_Sima Qian
On 1/24 China reported 18 new domestic confirmed (none previously asymptomatic) & 18 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
At Xi’an in Shaanxi Province 57 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There are currently 211 active domestic confirmed cases in the province. All areas of the city are now at Low Risk.
Guangdong Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 58 active domestic confirmed & 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Guangxi “Autonomous” Region there currently are 7 active domestic confirmed (6 at Dongxing in Fangchenggang & 1 at Ningming County in Chongzuo) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Chongzuo) cases in the province.
Tianjin Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed case (mild, at Jinnan District), from persons already under centralized quarantine. 44 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 270 active domestic confirmed & 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases (all presumed Omicron). 2 High Risk residential compounds were re-designated to Low Risk. 10 residential compounds remain at High Risk. 10 Medium Risk residential compounds were re-designated to Low Risk. 13 residential compounds & 3 villages are currently at Medium Risk.
Beijing Municipality reported 5 new domestic confirmed (4 mild & 1 moderate) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all from persons under centralized or home quarantine. There currently are 41 active domestic confirmed cases & 11 active domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 residential compound is currently at High Risk. 2 residential compounds have been elevated to Medium Risk. 3 residential compounds & 1 warehouse are currently at Medium Risk.
Liaoning Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, at Shenyang, a person who returned from Fengtai District in Beijing on 1/21 & was placed under centralized quarantine upon arrival. There currently are 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases (3 at Dalian & 1 at Shenyang) in the province.
Shandong Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently at 2 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Shanxi Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases in the province (1 each at Datong & Yuncheng).
Xiong’an in Hebei Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed cases,. There currently are 5 active domestic confirmed cases in the city, all part of the transmission from the cold storage warehouses outbreak in Beijing.
Horgos in Yili Prefecture, Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region reported 6 new domestic confirmed & 16 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed & 18 active domestic asymptomatic cases at the border crossing.
Shanghai Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, an international logistics worker at Pudong Airport, found when the case visited a fever clinic (rather than during regular screening). 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 19 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 1 village has been elevated to Medium Risk. 1 village & 1 shop is currently at Medium Risk.
At Jiangsu Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic cases (both at Wuxi) in the province.
At Zhejiang Province 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 67 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. A factory & a village at Jinhua remain at Medium Risk.
Henan Province reported 3 new domestic confirmed cases. 25 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 867 active domestic confirmed cases in the province. As the province does not break down the recovered cases by location, I can no longer track the counts of actives cases at different cities in the province.
Yunnan Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 10 active domestic confirmed (1 at Dehong Prefecture, 5 at Kunming & 4 at Sipsongpanna Prefecture) & 6 active domestic asymptomatic (all at Sipsongpanna Prefecture) cases in the province.
Imported Cases
On 1/24, China reported 27 new imported confirmed cases (5 previously asymptomatic), 25 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in China, 183 confirmed cases recovered (53 imported), 27 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (25 imported) & 5 were reclassified as confirmed cases (all imported), & 4,057 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 2,616 active confirmed cases in the country (1,078 imported), 9 in serious condition (all domestic), 747 active asymptomatic cases (671 imported), 6 suspect cases (all imported). 43,568 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 1/24, 2,973.459M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 5.338M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 1/25, Hong Kong reported 124 new positive cases, 31 imported & 93 domestic (most are from the outbreak in residential towers in Tsuen Wan & 6 do not have sources of infection identified, yet).
On 1/25, Taiwan reported 38 new positive cases, 25 imported (5 from the Canada, 3 each from India, Thailand & the US, 2 from Japan, & 1 each from Mainland China, Nigeria & Sweden, 6 still under investigation) & 13 domestic (including 3 cases w/o sources of infection identified yet).
gvg
@Baud: My super liberal sister is a doctor in a VA hospital who has lost a lot of patients and several coworker friends. She says the evidence that the boosters are significant is still pretty weak. She is pro vaccines and not anti booster but more meh on them. She studies all the reports but as I understand it their isn’t a lot of real data nor are there nice solid peer reviewed articles, because it’s an emergency and everything is rushed. All this is to say, condeming people who haven’t got the booster is probably premature. The difference in cases is not actually huge.
I got my booster as did our parents. I think she did too, but she is in a high risk position with a middle school son in a county where people aren’t taking proper care.
Wvng
@Cermet: The only thing the virus “cares about” is maximizing infectiousness and spread. Relative virulence plays no selective role, except if it becomes terribly virulent in most cases, like SARS-COV1 was, because that made it containable because it was easily detected.
Soprano2
@Matt McIrvin: I think this would have been my mom. I found four booklets by that horrible anti-vaxxer Alex Berenson in her house. I think she would have been resistant to getting a booster, because she was being influenced that way. It still baffles me why conservative media would be trying to kill off their customers.
Soprano2
@New Deal democrat: When I see tha our 7-day per 100,000 case rate yesterday was 1,628, I shudder to think what hospitalizations and deaths would be without vaccination.
Peale
Cases in my county are down to under 200 per day. Still 2.25x their level before omicron, but only about 75 away from the red line I drew below which I’ll be getting a haircut. I’d go now, but in winter my barber no longer keeps the door open to improve ventilation.
I’ve decided to go to Dubai in March. My first air travel in 2 years. So I’m feeling confident, although I am buying trip insurance.
The Barrington Declaration dweebs remind me of that grifter Peter Fisher who got famous online for predicting the real estate bubble in 2008, although what he really did was predict crashes every year from 1974 forward until he got one right.
even if 57% have now been infected at least once, that leaves 43% who haven’t been. So no, “everybody” hasn’t gotten it by now.
Baud
Via reddit, guy needs heart transplant but refuses to get vaxxed to get one.
Baud
@gvg:
Taking pride in not getting a booster is a different matter IMHO. It’s not a noble stand, even assuming it’s a reasonable choice for some people.
New Deal democrat
@lowtechcyclist: Best case scenario, by summer the military’s pan-COVID vaccine is approved and ready.
Worst case scenario (I think): repeated waves about every 6 months, but each one less virulent than the one before, not because of viral evolution, but because humanity is awash with people with varying levels of resistance. I posted a little chart a couple of weeks ago showing that each peak and trough in the US so far has been progressively less virulent.
Matt McIrvin
@Soprano2:
As with conservative politicians, they’re betting that the direct losses from killing their supporters will be outweighed by the gains from sowing division and chaos. So far that’s been a good bet.
Baud
@New Deal democrat:
Also, treatments will come online.
Peale
@Matt McIrvin: there were a lot of liberal natural health followers who are willing to go fascist to protect the idea that detox purges against the mysterious toxins are effective at solving the miseries of life. Those are the new swing voters they are picking up.
YY_Sima Qian
@Cermet:
I don’t know how this narrative hardened so much so quickly. (Rhetorical questions, I do know why – relentlessly negative press from western & especially Anglo-Sphere MSMs.)
The Chinese inactivated whole varion vaccines are not mRNA ones, but they have only a bit lower effectiveness than AZ-Oxford, & a bit higher than J&J. They have low sterilizing effectiveness against Omicron, even boosted, but then so do AZ-Oxford or J&J (or prior infection), & mRNA boosters wear off relatively quickly against Omicron infection. Protection against hospital & death remain pretty high (> 80%) for all of the WHO approved vaccines in use. Number of serious/critical cases in China has been much lower in the recent Delta/Omicron outbreaks than previous ones in the 1st half of the year. Epidemiological curves of highly vaccinated countries in Europe (or states in the US) clearly show that vaccination alone, even w/ the most effective vaccines (that are currently available), are inadequate to step an Omicron tsunami that significantly stress hospitals & greatly disrupt public services & business operations. I am sure the CCP regime wants to avoid the political, social, economic & reputation damage an Omicron tsunami in China will result in, if at all possible. Tianjin, Anyang & Zhuhai indicates that Chinese NPI measures are still effective against Omicron in a population highly vaccinated w/ inactivated whole varion vaccines. I think “Dynamic Zero COVID” is viable for China for a while longer yet.
Here is a thought experiment on what might happen to China & the world if China takes the advise of western commentators & switch to foreign made mRNA vaccines & abandon “Zero COVID” (absolutely ridiculous when prevalence is so extraordinarily high in the ROW): there will be a massive Omicron wave. Even if the high vaccination rate significantly reduces the percentage of hospitalizations & deaths, the huge number of infections will greatly stress the public health systems in 1st/2nd/3rd cities (which are crowded in the best of times) & collapse in low tier cities & rural areas. Manufacturing & logistics will be disrupted as employees call in sick en masse, just like ROW. Good luck living w/ COVID-19 w/o Chinese made N95/KN95 masks, rapid at home tests & pharmaceutical precursors. Good luck getting mRNA boosters when China is competing for the same supply w/ 1.5B doses demand, at the very least substantially bidding up the prices, if not causing an outright shortage. (Plus, if China pivots to Pfizer-BioNTech & Moderna, then the > 50% of the world that have used Chinese inactivated whole varion vaccines will immediately pivot as well.) This is all before we consider the larger economic impacts.
Steeplejack
@Anne Laurie:
Glad y0u picked up that Sackets Harbor ambulance story. Unbelievable. From the comments:
Anyway
@matt:
Exactly. Wealthy celebrity in ok health is at low risk were he to be infected. Lots of older people have been hospitalized, ICUed and survived with antibodies. It’s all swagger for Maher.
OzarkHillbilly
Short term profits are more important than long term growth. The “get it while the getting is good” school of American business.
satby
@YY_Sima Qian: thanks for that. It’s hard for people outside China (or India) to grasp the logistical impact of such huge populations on supply for the rest of the world.
Matt McIrvin
@Peale: I think it’s more general than that: people feel bad right now, and when they feel bad, they vote against the President’s party. This is as much, maybe more, from differential turnout–supporters of the out party getting mad and mobilized, supporters of the in party getting depressed–as from actual swing voters. So Republicans have an incentive to keep things bad, even if it kills one percent of their own supporters.
Of course, they end up in trouble when they actually have power AND people recognize that they have that power (in other words, when they have the Presidency). Then they have to govern, and they’ve got trouble there, unless they can ride on some external crisis like 9/11. Trump thought sowing chaos would even help him as President, but he lost in 2020–I think sowing chaos was the only thing he really knew how to do. If nothing changes, he has an excellent chance of coming back and winning in 2024, because for now he’s the anti-President protest vote.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: Darwin rears his ugly head.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: Worst case is that we get a variant that is both different enough to manage a lot of immune escape, like Omicron, and is more inherently virulent, like Alpha and Delta (or maybe even super-virulent like SARS-CoV-1 or MERS–though that might keep it from spreading as effectively, like it did those viruses).
That’s not impossible. So far, it appears there’s a structural tradeoff–the differences that allow Omicron to evade prior immunity also impede the functioning of the spike protein in some ways. But nobody really knows that this is an iron law.
YY_Sima Qian
@satby: India is almost an order of magnitude smaller as far as size of manufacturing sector (supply) or domestic market (demand), but it is a/the powerhouse in generic drugs & vaccines. We saw in spring/early summer 2021, when the Delta wave prompted India to halt vaccines exports, & how that negatively impacted vaccine availability in the Global South. Chinese supply picked up most of the slack in 2nd half of the year. However, if both China & India are out of action (India is in its steeply upward Omicron trajectory right now), then the Global South will have few options left, which will eventually affect the Global North (see Omicron).
YY_Sima Qian
@Matt McIrvin: Omicron evolved to replicate 70X faster than Delta in the bronchial cells, while 10X slower in lung cells. Those characteristics probably explain its super infectiousness & relatively lower virulence. If a future variant replicates 10X faster than Delta in the bronchial cells than Delta & 2X slower in the lung cells, then it would prove the most devastating variant yet. I assume such a variant would have enough differences from Delta or Omicron to enable substantial immunity escape.
satby
@laura: I know you aren’t alone in your concern for Amir! Hoping his now longer than expected absence is due to a longer than anticipated recovery. We all miss you Amir, get well soon.
Matt McIrvin
@YY_Sima Qian: If it’s a mutation derived from Delta or Omicron, then it will have to deal with the prior immunity from those waves. But this is a huge multidimensional space–Omicron wasn’t descended from Delta, it came out of nowhere with a bunch of different mutations off of original COVID, maybe from genetic drift within an immunocompromised human or maybe even in a second crossover from another species of animal. There’s no guarantee we won’t see more of these wild cards. Evolution doesn’t have a direction.
We can at least hope that the severe-disease protection from T- and B-cells that we get from vaccination or infection remains relatively broad and nonspecific, as it has been so far.
YY_Sima Qian
@satby:
@laura:
Really missing Amir!
YY_Sima Qian
@Matt McIrvin: Yeah, T- & B- cells immunity will keep the death tolls much lower than the 1st waves, but that alone will not prevent hospitals getting overwhelmed & major disruptions in every other aspect of social economy.
The whole pandemic has been quite humbling, even as humanity’s scientific achievements have been exhilarating.
Matt McIrvin
Weekly case averages here in MA are now showing the inverse spike from data getting pushed into the past week by Martin Luther King Day. I think that is not a real increase–the Biobot wastewater data shows general virus levels continuing to drop.
Emmyelle
Uh-oh. Bari Weiss is going to have to start spraying her Pringles cans again.
Matt McIrvin
@YY_Sima Qian: In the northeast US, day-by-day death rates are peaking as high as in the winter 2020-21 wave because the lower per-infection fatality rate is compensated by the much larger number of infections.
The visible difference to me is that in last winter’s wave, relatively few people I knew actually had COVID, whereas in this wave, many people I know are coming down with mild cases despite being vaccinated and boosted. For people up to date on their shots, the chance of getting sick is much higher but the level of terror is much lower. But the remnant unvaccinated are all getting it as well, and many of them are dying.
frosty
@satby: That’s my younger son too. Waiting for a specifically Omicron booster. We can’t convince him.
I wonder if these kids are listening to the same people.
YY_Sima Qian
@Matt McIrvin:
The whole COVID-19 pandemic has been a collective action problem, dating from the original Wuhan Variant. Omicron is the same, only even more challenging from the collective action perspective, w/ an even larger gap between the risk to the individual & the disruption to the whole.
Sloane Ranger
Monday in the UK we had 88,447 new cases. This is a decrease of 6.8% in the rolling 7-day average. As usual, Monday case numbers contain a lot of catch up from the weekend, where many offices are closed. This is especially true for Wales, which does not report on Saturdays. New cases by nation,
England – 77,232 (up 8319)
Northern Ireland – 3932 (up 873)
Scotland – 2956 (down 562)
Wales – 4327 (up 1500).
Deaths – There were 56 deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported yesterday. This is a decrease of 0.1% in the rolling 7-day average. 44 deaths were in England, 1 in Northern Ireland, 11 in Wales and none in Scotland.
Testing – 1,229,253 tests took place on Sunday, 23rd. The rolling 7-day average is down by 5.8%.
Hospitalisations – There were 17,523 people in hospital and 640 on ventilators on Friday, 21st. As of 18th January, the number of admissions when compared with the previous 7-days was down by 12.6%.
Vaccinations – As of Sunday, 21st, 52,236,574 people had received 1 shot of a vaccine, 48,195,145 had had 2 and 36,941,059 had had a 3rd shot/booster. In percentage terms, this means that 90.8% of all UK residents aged 12+ have had 1 shot, 83.8% had had 2 and 64.2% had had a 3rd shot/booster.
Miss Bianca
@Baud: Then die already, mofo. (Not you, of course, Baud – the idiot who won’t get vaxxed literally to save his life.)
Miss Bianca
@YY_Sima Qian: Me
threefour!WaterGirl
@YY_Sima Qian: So say we all.
No response to my third email to Amir, sent yesterday. It’s 3 weeks today since we have heard from Amir.
eachother
To me it looks as though the Daily numbers for Covid Deaths are not in agreement with the 7 day averages. The Washington Post has it at 2000 +. I have seen higher daily numbers x2. That is a variance of significance. Yes. It represents a lot of misery and longterm diminishment of our exceptionalism. But as a number it has value in the equation of what’s going on with Covid in the relative moment.
?BillinGlendaleCA
The co-worker who passed away at my Home of the Orange Apron store died of COVID, apparently contracted from his wife. I had dinner with the kid on Saturday, her brush with COVID(caught from her BF who got it at a work Christmas lunch) was really mild(just a slight fever, cough and chest congestion), she was fully vaxed and boosted.
Cermet
@Wvng: Tell that to the infamous 1918 ‘flu’ (its first major wave was not deadly at all); virus’s depend on transmission as its main factor – yes; but mutations are random – so deadlier can and does occur. Luckily, not as often as increased transmission or less deadly. But in no way can we expect the next variant to be less dangerous – it might and could be far deadlier. The longer the world has huge areas of unvaccinated, the greater our danger becomes.
Cermet
@YY_Sima Qian: I in no way want to ever see that wave hit China! And I understand their efforts and frankly, don’t see an alternative – as you said, even with better mRNA vaccines it would very likely overwhelm their healthcare system. Also, don’t get me wrong, I’m absolutely rooting for them to succeed in their efforts. Just that they are riding a tiger – hope it works.
eachother
How children are like chicken eggs? Though already ‘hatched’ in this, they are still under the infrared heating lamps in cardboard boxes. (schools). Chicken eggs are used to grow virus for vaccines because virus grows well in chicken eggs.
In fact virus frequently grows well in chickens.
Bill Arnold
@Baud:
In other words, they are gullible and ignorant, and perhaps should be informed of this fact.
Bill Arnold
@Snarki, child of Loki:
I figured they both install independent backdoors for use by any governments willing to pay them for mind/body control access via their control planes’ crypto-secure orbital lasers . (Musk is involved as well, if one must ask.)
Signs include oddly timed spasms in the large intestine. (It’s not Morse code, so don’t even try to decode it. That way lies madness!)
/s
Bill Arnold
@Matt McIrvin:
We, including at least some in the press, need to be calling them mass murderers, who are killing for potential political gain. Because it is fact.
YY_Sima Qian
@Cermet: Understood. I do wish the Chinese government would approve the BioNTech vaccine, which they likely could have done at least 4 months ago. The decision is surely part political & part practical. I also don’t know what is holding up there BioNTech-Fosun JV plant w/ 1B doses / yr. annual capacity. If that facility is up & running & certified, the Chinese government might go ahead & approve the BioNTech vaccine. Still waiting on the Phase III trial data for Chinese mRNA vaccine candidate, as well.
Chris T.
@Bill Arnold: But how do the orbital lasers work when the Earth is flat?