As John Cole said in his post on Ukraine last night, “hopefully Adam will re-emerge like the proverbial groundhog and share some of his insights with us”.
In the meantime, though, the situation in Ukraine is not going away, and I hardly know where or how to begin to educate myself. Since Gin & Tonic has already forgotten more about Ukraine than I will ever know, I asked him if he might be willing to share some of his knowledge with us, and I very much appreciate that he was kind enough to do so.
So, while we wait and look forward to (hopefully) hearing from Adam on Ukraine, here’s a Ukraine starter kit from Gin & Tonic. I appreciate the format he chose – because for me this is like my first trip to the store to buy my first “stereo”. I knew I wanted a stereo, but I didn’t even know what a woofer was, or a tweeter, let alone what a sub-woofer was. So that first trip to the store was the start of an educational experience, and by the time I got to the 4th store I was asking about sub-woofers.
So hopefully when Adam emerges I will have enough background to understand at least some of what he says!
Gin & Tonic:
WaterGirl asked if I’d consider some form of expanded post about Ukraine. Between my innate preference for brevity in written and oral communications and my late-onset ADD, there’s no way I can do a long-form wall o’ text post, a la Adam or Tony Jay. So I thought a Q&A, like an old-school FAQ, might work. Not sure if or when this will go up, but I’ll try to be around late evening EST if people have additional questions.
So who the fuck are you?
I have ties to Ukraine, which I don’t feel like elaborating on right now, and firmly support Ukraine’s right to political self-determination and to live in peace on an equal footing with its neighbors. I have no strategic/military/intelligence background nor any privileged sources. I follow various primary sources in several languages, make observations and have opinions. But at the end of the day I’m just some Internet rando, so those observations and opinions are worth precisely what you paid for them.
Is Putin going to invade?
Flip answer: he already did, in 2014. Real answer: I have no fucking idea, and neither do you. But the thing is, he has more leverage over the West by keeping everyone in suspense. Once there are (major, verifiable) troop movements, much of that leverage is gone.
What does Putin want?
I believe that he is primarily interested in three things: a) having the Russian Federation continue to be treated as the global superpower that the USSR appeared to be, and if that means waving his dick around, so be it; b) a corollary to a), weakening “the West,” largely meaning de-fanging NATO; c) restoring “Greater Russia,” because to him and people who think like him, there is “Great Russia,” “Little Russia” (Ukraine), and “White Russia” (Belarus) which all belong together. In this view Ukraine isn’t really a country, it’s a bunch of hicks on the farm who speak some Polonized dialect of Russian (note that “not really a country” is also a position you’ll hear a lot from the Trumposphere – odd, that.)
What can the US/the West do?
“Hard” military options are fairly limited. Neither the US nor NATO will be moving armored divisions into Ukraine and everybody knows it. Freer flow of defensive weapons systems would be good: Stingers, Javelins, the Turkish Bayraktar drones are all good, and more of them would be better. Sanctions are largely played out, IMO, and require more discipline than the West is prepared for. The apocryphal quote that “the capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them,” while not said by Lenin, is both prescient and understated. The capitalists (the US/West) will not only sell the rope, they will sell the lumber to build the gallows, will contract engineering/construction services to build it, and will hire out the hangman. To hurt Putin and his circle economically, when it would collapse the London real estate market, when the most powerful man in the US Senate gets a $200 million aluminum plant in his state, when half of Cleveland is bought by Kolomoisky, when every other 8-figure condo in NYC is bought by oligarchs’ families, would hurt US/Western financial interests too much to be feasible. The “nuclear option,” as it were, cutting Russia off from SWIFT has already been termed an act of war by Russia.
Where I see options that aren’t being taken (again, I have no special knowledge) is in the area of offensive cyber activity. When a motley crew of Belarusian hacktivists can disable the state railway system, imagine what the NSA could do? I mean, look at Stuxnet. Why does the US appear to be sitting on its hands?
What does Ukraine want?
Ukraine wants, first and foremost, to be part of the EU. They view themselves as a European country, and want to be part of Europe – being part of NATO is understood to be a longer-range goal, with substantial roadblocks, but still something to strive for. These views are borne out both by opinion polls and by real polls (i.e. elections.) They want the bear to leave them alone and go back home, so they can live in peace. They do not expect, and assuredly do not want, US troops on Ukrainian soil. They do want access to good, effective weapons systems just like any other nominally allied country.
All Ukrainians want this? What about the Russian-speakers?
The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians, regardless of the language they speak at home, want this. The idea that speaking Russian means you want to be part of Russia is propaganda – don’t be a chump and fall for it. The linguistic situation in Ukraine is complicated, and is poorly understood by most Western commentators. There are no good analogies, but imagine concluding that all those people speaking English in Dublin wish to be ruled by England.
Why are there so many Russian-speakers in Ukraine?
For this we can clearly blame Stalin. Between the Holodomor of 1932-33 and forced deportations like that of the Tatars from Crimea in 1944, Stalin was hell-bent on ethnically Russifying all of the western USSR. Russians were moved into areas which were emptied by other means, and put down roots. But over time they came to see themselves as Ukrainians, and are now, especially since the collapse of the USSR, mostly Ukrainian patriots. Ukraine is largely a bilingual country in ways for which there are no parallels. Yes, Ukrainian is the official language of government, but even in the halls of government offices, you are as likely to hear Russian as Ukrainian. Both print and broadcast media in Russian are widely available throughout the country, and in any shop or restaurant in any major city you can order and be served in Russian, and can function normally pretty much 100% in Russian. Imagine, by contrast, living in Toronto and knowing no English, speaking only French. When Putin or his allies refer to the “rights” of Russian speakers, all I hear is “Sudetenland.”
But what Ukrainians say they want is just due to Western influence, isn’t it?
No, they have expressed themselves clearly at the ballot box. As I have remarked on more than once, Ukraine can run fair and efficient elections, with complete and comprehensive results available in 24 hours and accepted by all sides. Repeatedly rehashing a Presidential election a year after it has taken place is not a luxury they can afford. This example is something Putin absolutely does not want to see spreading. Having normal elections and a peaceful transfer of power between an incumbent and a challenger could be contagious, who knows?
But wasn’t the 2014 Maidan revolution a CIA-instigated coup that started this?
No.
Well, the Ukrainians are all Nazis or ultra-rightists anyway.
The current President is Jewish; at one point Ukraine was the only country other than Israel where both the President and the Prime Minister were Jewish. If they’re Nazis, they’re not very good. And in the last parliamentary election, the ultra-right party was shut out. But the country of Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, Tucker Carlson, and Marjorie Taylor Greene should probably sit down and shut up.
They were Nazis, though, weren’t they?
Some Ukrainians supported the Germans after Hitler declared war on Russia as a way of attempting to drive Russia out of Ukraine. This history is complicated. Before attempting to engage in debate on it, read Timothy Snyder’s Bloodlands and Robert Conquest’s Harvest of Sorrow.
Is this why Germany is reluctant to support Ukraine?
Germany seems to have a Heinz-57-varieties of reasons for its lukewarm (at best) support: there’s the obvious one of gas and Nordstream-2; there are multiple unholy relationships of German ex-politicians with Russian companies/oligarchs; there’s what they refer to as a “moral debt” to Russia for its losses in WWII – never mind the equally horrific losses among Ukrainian civilians (see, for example, https://texty.org.ua/projects/103854/occupation_eng/ for the brutal scale); there may be some residual aspect of “don’t tar us with that Nazi brush again,” but it’s not said out loud. But when Germany prohibits its customers from selling on weapons systems to Ukraine, the reasons don’t matter to anyone in Ukraine – they just see a country which could help and doesn’t.
What about that UK intelligence report that Russia want to install a puppet government?
Yes, this was all over the news a couple of days ago; I have no insight into MI6 or CIA or anywhere else, but the report was taken fairly seriously. The issue is that the alleged puppet, Yevgeniy Murayev, is a clown with near-zero support in Ukraine. He owns a broadcast network called “Nash” – which means “ours” in Ukrainian, and is a term widely used as one of inclusivity of fellow Ukrainians, either in Ukraine or elsewhere. Its use by Murayev is treated as parody. Here is the crux – if Putin is relying on people like Murayev, he is wildly misjudging Ukrainians. There is no way you can “install”someone who has ~4-5% support without massive military force and a continued occupation. His proxies are massively unpopular; one can only marvel at how support for Russia has eroded since 2014.
But the Russian army is much stronger, isn’t it?
Yes. However, Ukraine has spent the last 8 years building up its armed forces, with some Western assistance, and is in a much better position than it was in 2014. The key, though, is that Ukrainians will be motivated to defend their country in a way that an invader never is. Many, many Ukrainians have heard stories from their grandparents about the brave partisan resistance; it’s part of the folklore. Ask almost anyone what their plans are and there’s always two parts: send my family to the place in the country, which we’ve stocked with food and fuel, and I’ll stay and fight the Muscovites. The Russians will endure terrible losses, even if they “win.”
Why did the US order families of Embassy staff to leave?
Fuck if I know. This was as welcome in Ukraine as a fart in an elevator. It is a clear signal of weakness, widely derided. I have not been a fan of the US State Department for a variety of reasons, and this is another. It’s an own goal at a critical point in the match.
How can I follow what’s going on?
If you need English-language sources, there are some below (if you can read Ukrainian well enough to grok primary sources, you don’t need my advice.) Beware, though, a lot of my sources are on Twitter. I find it invaluable for breaking news from places that aren’t otherwise well-covered, but then I actually know some of the sources. For more traditional media, try the Kyiv Independent (fka Kyiv Post) or NV.UA (for “New Voice.”) RFE/RL is good, as is Voice of America if you prefer that format (interestingly, the new Eastern Europe chief for VOA is Myroslava Gongadze, widow of Georgiy Gongadze, a prominent journalist who was kidnapped and murdered in 2000.)
On Twitter, find the country at @Ukraine, its President at @ZelenskyyUa, its Ministry of Foreign Affairs at @MFA_Ukraine. A small selection of journalists and academics, all in English: @sumlenny, @ichbinilya, @VladDavidzon, @ChristopherJM, @NataliaAntonova, @edgarsrinkevics, @IlvesToomas, @b_judah, @DougKlain, @eric_hontz, former Ambassador @McFaul, @yermolenko_v, @IAPonomarenko, @OxanaShevel, @Kateryna_Kruk, @olgatokariuk, I could go on, but probably best would be to follow a few of these and see who they retweet or reply to. No bios for these because you can look them up easily enough if you’re interested. Not a lot of minority voices in this space, sorry, but @Russian_Starr is a Black academic well-traveled in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and @MaximEristavi is a gay Georgian/Ukrainian journalist Tweeting mostly in English, sometimes in Russian.
So here’s a dedicated thread to talk about Ukraine, for anyone who is interested! Gin & Tonic will be around for questions later this evening.
WaterGirl
I just want to say thank you and give a big shout-out to Gin & Tonic for doing this!
Baud
Thanks for this.
jackmac
Great stuff. Thanks for the backgrounder!
catclub
How about sanctions that includes raising fees on SWIFT transactions? A lot but not absurdly.
Starboard Tack
Who in the Ukraine would benefit if Russia invaded?
Spanky
I’m assuming this is a rhetorical question, because who would show their hand before the game really gets going?
zhena gogolia
Great summary.
WaterGirl
Can you say more about the What Does Putin Want part, maybe explicitly drawing the line between he wants and what’s gong on here?
Does HE think we will become more weak or appear more weak if he invades Ukraine?
I am also curious about your comment that “Putin already says he will consider that an act of war”. Would that be enough reason to not do the thing that appears to me to be the biggest tool in our toolbox? (SWIFT) Seems like that’s teeth – why the heck wouldn’t we use it?
Putin (assuming he invades) will literally be committing an act of war. Why couldn’t we / shouldn’t we retaliate with SWIFT?
Roger Moore
Just a guess, but I expect that the US doesn’t want to take any offensive action until/unless there’s an actual shooting war. The last thing we want to do is to provide the Russians with an excuse for invading, and any kind of overt attack would do exactly that. If we are doing anything, we’re doing our absolute best to keep it out of the news.
Gin & Tonic
@Starboard Tack: Firstly, please, no definite article.
Who benefits? The Putin-aligned oligarchs: Kolomoisky, Medvedchuk, Deripaska, Akhmetov, Pinchuk and the various hangers-on (both people and parties.)
eclare
Thank you so much for this background. The format was perfect.
WaterGirl
@eclare: I know. Small chunks. One at a time. Perfect.
Lyrebird
Thank you Gin & Tonic!!!
Re: participating in the Nazi Holocaust: I could bear reading only a little of “Hitler’s Willing Executioners: Ordinary Germans and the Holocaust”, and it’s about specifics of German culture, but there are parallels in Ukraine in terms of generations that socially accepted and promoted hatred of Jews specifically. But that was true in Poland and in Russia and in Czech. and so forth, and as G&T points out, it’s much more useful to look at how they operate NOW.
Gin & Tonic
@Roger Moore: I see your point, but there are ways of having accidents happen without direct attribution (Putin is good at that.)
As I said, I have no more knowledge about the US’s offensive capabilities in this area than you do. Maybe those Belarusian hacktivists get support from somebody they don’t know, who knows?
Another Scott
This is excellent. Thanks for taking the time. You have helpfully answered some questions I posed recently.
Fingers crossed.
Cheers,
Scott.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Thanks Gin & Tonic!
I hope both for the Ukrainians and everyone else this doesn’t turn into a war
SiubhanDuinne
Wow, thank you very much for this, G&T. A post to bookmark and save for reference. (Thanks too, as always, to WaterGirl for her tireless behind-the-scenes work.)
Roger Moore
@Starboard Tack:
Just an FYI, but the country is just Ukraine, not the Ukraine. That’s the official government position, and most official style guides have followed. IIRC, and I’m sure some of our Ukrainian experts will correct me if I’m wrong, but use of the definite article is generally seen as implying that it’s part of some other country.
Gin & Tonic
@WaterGirl: I don’t know what Putin *really* wants. I do know that instability and dis-unity in the West/NATO certainly appear like strategic goals for him. He hasn’t tested Article V, but if he does send more troops west and, say, Germany does nothing, he may draw conclusions about Estonia, perhaps.
If your enemy/adversary is confused and does not show a united front, that is always good strategically, no?
eclare
@WaterGirl: Q and A was the right format for someone who knows nothing, me!
Gin & Tonic
@Lyrebird: The history of Jews in Eastern Europe is long and complicated, and well beyond the scope of this piece or any comments I might make tonight.
Tony Jay
Thanks to Watergirl and G’n’T for this.
May I just say that tanking the London-centred property market by cracking down on the oligarchs would be fine with me. Sure, we’d get our hair mussed, but a country stupid enough to vote for Brexit really shouldn’t have any grounds to balk at making the right hard choices for once.
Not going to happen though, since they own one major Party outright and the other one is up for offers from anyone with more money than ethics. But it’s the thought that counts.
debbie
Yes, thanks for this. I’m wondering how Putin will engineer a provocation to invade Ukraine.
Chetan Murthy
Thank you, G&T! Thank you so much!
Starboard Tack
@Gin & Tonic: I see. What are the oligarchs doing now? Are they encouraging Putin? Organizing internal dissention? Waiting? Watching?
eclare
@Gin & Tonic: Wasn’t there a documentary you recommended years ago about the Maidan revolution?
Gin & Tonic
@Roger Moore: You are correct. It is somewhat complicated by the fact that Slavic languages do not have a definite article, so this is more of an issue for the English-speaking world.
debbie
NPR implied this afternoon that China and Russia have an unstated agreement to diminish the U.S. Clearly that was TFG’s purpose.
Xantar
So here’s what I don’t understand: Putin and the Russian bots I see on social media are always saying that Russia must defend itself from threats. What threats? Nobody is interested in invading Russia. We saw what happened the last few times anybody tried it. Do they actually believe they are at risk?
Nelle
May I recommend the documentary, Winter on Fire, about the 2014 Revolution? When I was in Ukraine, in 2018, I stayed at the hotel on Maidan Square where they brought the injured and then both walked (well, limped – it was a month before my hip replacement) the Square, including up the side where they had photos of all who had been killed. Had I not been so physically compromised, I would have walked to where they took refuge.
(My family – both maternal and paternal – came from what is now Ukraine, but were imported by Catherine the Great in the late 1700’s and established Mennonite colonies there. My father lived through WWI, the Revolution, the Civil War, and the famine of the early 20’s. He emigrated to Canada in 1924. So the land, its sky, its fruit and wheat were imprinted on the family, but they never intermarried into the Ukrainian population. I went on a Mennonite Heritage trip by cruise ship, from Odessa, up the Dneiper river with stops by the old colonies, and ending in Kiev, in 2018. I had wanted to see my grandmother’s place in Crimea – my great-grandfather’s mills and factories are apparently still standing – but not going into Putin territory.)
Another Scott
One of the long Twitter threads I read recently said that Zelenskyy is doomed if VVP invades and that’s supposedly one reason why Poroshenko returned to face treason charges. A few days later a court rejected a request to arrest him.
Things are really, really complicated over there.
I have less knowledge than you do, and I’m not trying to throw FUD around, but I hope the US and NATO are being sensible about the support they’re providing and that we don’t somehow end up supporting groups that aren’t who we thought they were.
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
@eclare: There were several films made. I suspect I recommended Winter on Fire, which was (maybe still is) available on Netflix.
Josie
Thanks so much, G&T. This is the sort of useful background information our media people could be giving us if they weren’t so busy following the horse race and asking stupid questions.
SiubhanDuinne
@Gin & Tonic:
I managed to train myself out of saying “The Ukraine” several years ago, but I have another question on kind of the same level: When pronouncing the country’s name, I accentuate the second syllable. Recently, though, I’ve heard an increasing number of people (anchors, reporters, pundits) pronounce it “YOO-krane,” which sounds wrong to my ear (but I’ll change if I must). Which is preferred?
eclare
@Gin & Tonic: Thank you.
Roger Moore
@Gin & Tonic:
I wouldn’t be surprised if any hackers working for the US government are keeping their powder dry until the shooting starts. Somebody pointed out that we’re doing the same thing with various kinds of sanctions by threatening them but not carrying them out. This makes a lot of sense. The point of making those threats is to say that bad things will happen if Russia invades. If we implement the sanctions before they invade, we actually neutralize the value of the threat, since they’re getting the sanction regardless of what they do. Unless our cyberattacks would directly hinder preparations for an invasion, it makes more sense to keep them in reserve as a threat.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
I remember reading something about 8,500 US troops being put on high alert to deploy if NATO needs them because of heightened tensions at the Russian Ukrainian border.
This sounds pretty serious to me, if I’m being honest. It’s a scary situation
Could this escalate into a wider war that drags in the US and NATO, regardless of NATO or even Russian intentions?
eclare
@Nelle: What an interesting history!
Gin & Tonic
@Xantar: They believe they would be at risk if Ukraine became a NATO member, or at least that’s what they say.
zhena gogolia
@SiubhanDuinne: In English I usually hear the stress on the second syllable. Neither first nor second syllable corresponds to the stress on the word in Ukrainian anyway. It’s a four-syllable word with the stress on the third syllable.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Another Scott:
Why is Zelensky doomed?
Roger Moore
@Tony Jay:
Crashing the London property market would be good for ordinary working Londoners who currently have trouble affording housing. It’s wealthy property owners who would really suffer.
Gin & Tonic
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Neither US nor NATO combat troops will be deployed in Ukraine. Everybody knows this.
Gin & Tonic
@SiubhanDuinne: Zhena gogolia is right. In English, stress on the second syllable. In Ukrainian, stress on the third (although I’ve heard Russians stressing the second.)
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@debbie:
Never mind who this hurts or kills. Never mind climate change and the need for international cooperation to address it.
I hate these amoral fucks. Plus, I thought the US is one of China’s largest trading partners
SiubhanDuinne
@zhena gogolia:
Thanks.
oo-kra-EE-nuh or similar?
Xantar
@Gin & Tonic: but again, at risk of what? If Ukraine joined NATO, that doesn’t mean any divisions are marching across the Russian border.
Gin & Tonic
@SiubhanDuinne: Pretty close, yes.
ETA: The English Wikipedia article on Ukraine has a brief audio link of the pronunciation.
Gin & Tonic
@Xantar: True. But it’s a useful pretext.
Wolvesvalley
This is an incredibly helpful piece of writing, both in format and substance. Thank you, Gin & Tonic!
SiubhanDuinne
@Gin & Tonic:
Glad to know it, as YOO-krane just sounds ignorant to me :-)
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
Thanks
SiubhanDuinne
@Wolvesvalley:
I agree. The Q&A approach is both useful and non-intimidating.
persistentillusion
Thank you G&T. Very helpful in helping all BJ readers into a closer understanding of a very complicated situation, both historically and topically.
Gin & Tonic
Sorry if I haven’t kept up with the questions, this is the first time I’m doing something like this.
Roger Moore
@Xantar:
They’re basically justifying what is known as defensive imperialism. A lot of Russian imperialism within Europe has been defensive. They don’t necessarily want to conquer new territory for its own sake but to provide a buffer between Russia and dangerous countries like Germany. Of course that justification doesn’t make life any nicer for the countries they invade. More importantly, defensive imperialism still has creeping logic. There’s no amount of territory they can conquer to make themselves safe, because the newly conquered territory is incorporated into the empire and soon needs a buffer to protect it.
SiubhanDuinne
@Gin & Tonic:
Thanks [scurries off to listen]
citizen dave
I read the overnight thread when I woke up this morning and already felt fairly educated. This post piles on greatly–huge thanks to G&T! I found the average income numbers of Russians interesting, and my wild-assed guess/hope is that a lot of this is VVP flexing and diverting attention from his crappy rule. It would be nice if they had a revolution in Russia, but I’m not holding my breath–the people seem to prefer to autocrat-style guy. Maybe the young people will feel otherwise.
Another conclusion was that after the learning I’m far far less worried about VVP and his slipping grip on power. Hope he steps on a rake and whacks himself in the face, Sideshow Bob Style.
Gin & Tonic
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Nuclear weapons change everything.
banditqueen
Now that putin has gone this far won’t he have to end it by getting ‘something’–even if he decides not to launch an invasion of Ukraine, what would he feel he has to do to ‘save face’?
zhena gogolia
@SiubhanDuinne: Exactly!
Another Scott
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I can’t find the thread now (I think it was on the CherylRofer twitter but it didn’t jump out at me on checking just now). My recollection is that the argument was that Z came in as a reformer and someone who would find a negotiated settlement and if VVP just invades then his approach would be shown to be naïve/flawed/a failure/etc.
It was just one person’s opinion and I have no way to evaluate how sensible it is.
HTH a little.
Cheers,
Scott.
Dan B
Thank you for a window into Ukraine that American media have no interest in providing. Your style of writing makes the essential details easy to grasp.
Gin & Tonic
And, on a somewhat lighter note (with h/t to DougJ)
Roger Moore
@Gin & Tonic:
So they think Ukrainian policy needs to be subordinated to Russian interests. Sounds awfully imperialistic to me.
Gin & Tonic
@banditqueen: Go back up to my answer to the second question.
Mike in NC
I was on a NATO exercise in Scotland in 2003 which involved military personnel from several countries: UK, US, Canada, Italy and France. There was also a company of Ukrainian naval infantry present as part of the “Partnership for Peace” program. I retained a little bit of Russian from college (decades earlier), but the Ukrainians made it clear they would prefer to communicate in English.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Another Scott:
Hmm. So it wouldn’t necessarily mean that the far-right would then gain a political advantage, then? Just that Zelensky and his faction would lose power? Given what G&T has indicated about what the vast majority of Ukrainians think based on electoral results anyway
Barbara
Thank you. I really appreciate this.
Nettoyeur
@Gin & Tonic: actually not. In Russian, you say “na Ukrainye” meaning ON (the) Ukraine. The word Ukraine means edge or border, so you are saying “on the edge”. This was absolutely drummed into me in Russian class in 1970s. In Ukrainian,you say “v Ukrainye” meaning “in Ukraine.” These days, it’s politically correct to say that in Russian, too.
Gin & Tonic
@Roger Moore: Interesting how American “anti-imperialists” do not view this as imperialism.
The dirtbag left’s aligning with Russian interests isn’t a surprise. What is a constant source of wonderment to this old guy who remembers The Committee on the Present Danger is how completely the GOP has rolled over to Putin.
Brachiator
Good stuff
I think it is more that Europe wants to buy from Russia, natural gas and stuff.
I think that the London real estate market would survive. But still.
I got no clue as to what might happen or the best action by the West. However, I have listened to a number of talk show hosts almost wet themselves while proclaiming how the Mighty Putin has outfoxed Biden. Which is just stupid. Some of these dopes imply, but never say outright, that they think that Trump would have been able to deal with Putin. This is absolute nonsense, but his supporters are creating this fantasy Trump that ignores his failures and makes him capable of anything.
I can see GOP members of Congress simultaneously blasting Biden while kissing up to Putin. I think that if this becomes a big deal, Biden should demand that every Republican disclose their financial interests in Russian investments. And also detail every trip they made to Russia since 2010.
It also amuses me that right wing idiots liked to talk about getting tough with China, but now are oddly meek when asked what to do about Russia.
Worse case scenario. I don’t know. Allow a recapture of Ukraine. Would this make the West weak? Yeah, probably. But countries with nuclear weapons have a strong hand. And yeah, this would possibly stir up more mischief in North Korea and Iran.
But maybe cooler heads will prevail.
Nettoyeur
@Roger Moore: It is.
Xantar
@Roger Moore:
Ok, but even if we look at it purely from the self interest of Russia, that’s stupid. Nobody is going to invade Russia or any countries in the former Soviet Union! Not even Germany! Nobody has the stomach for that kind of thing any more. It just makes Russia look paranoid and divorced from reality.
Omnes Omnibus
From where I sit, it looks to me like Ukrainian forces are doing everything they can to be ready in case of an invasion without putting troops face to face with the Russians at the border. This makes sense. Troops face to face at the border increase the likelihood of something dumb happening. No sense giving the Russians an “excuse.”
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
Didn’t Ted Cruz sponsor some kind of sanctions legislation against Russia, recently?
Gin & Tonic
@Nettoyeur: Zhena can answer this better, probably, but “na” and “v” are prepositions and not articles. To the best of my knowledge only Bulgarian among the Slavic languages has articles. The “on” vs “into” distinction is important, but it is not the same as the “the.”
Jerzy Russian
@Gin & Tonic: I don’t get the joke, but that is nothing new.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic:
Did you read this piece by David Rothkopf?
https://www.thedailybeast.com/putins-making-nato-stronger-whether-he-starts-a-war-in-ukraine-or-not
Gin & Tonic
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The far-right is a non-factor, electorally.
Danielx
@Gin & Tonic:
Thanks, much appreciated.
Gin & Tonic
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): He was sponsoring sanctions against Nordstream-2.
Gin & Tonic
@zhena gogolia: I have not, thanks for the pointer.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic:
@Nettoyeur: Right, “v” and “na” are prepositions. I always thought that using “na Ukraine” in Russian was a rough equivalent of using “the Ukraine” in English. I can’t bring myself to watch Russian television, so I’m not sure what they’re using these days. My friends use “v Ukraine.” But they are not a random sample of the population.
Roger Moore
@Gin & Tonic:
I think there are a bunch of leftists who have convinced themselves that only the US is capable of imperialism, or maybe that only US imperialism counts, or something similar. They just don’t recognize that it’s just as bad when somebody else does it.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
Nordstream-2 is owned and operated by Nord Stream AG whose majority shareholder is Gazprom, the Russian state-owned oil company, though. No idea why the bill failed in the Senate
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: that’s the Finnish prime minister, isn’t it?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Roger Moore:
I found this out when I pointed out to someone on Tumblr who wanted the US to disband and hand the land back to Native Americans and disarm itself by destroying all of it’s military bases that China and Russia would never follow suit. Also, of course, that wouldn’t exactly be practical
I can’t remember exactly what the response was, but it was some dismissive, idiotic argle bargle garbage
eclare
I just saw that the Croatian president is taking Russia’s side, basically. I knew Russia had made inroads into Serbia, but that is a surprise to me.
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: I just added Ukraine in the sidebar under Featuring:
Ukraine!
So all posts that are marked as Ukraine will show up under that link in the sidebar.
eclare
@WaterGirl: Thank you!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
Good! Thanks for answering my questions : )
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@eclare:
What’s the justification the Croatian president is trotting out? Russia is clearly the aggressor here
Gin & Tonic
@Jerzy Russian: The woman in the photo is the Prime Minister of Finland, which has recently (along with Sweden) expressed an interest in joining NATO. The “this woman smiles/how do you respond” is a meme.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: o.i.c. I’m so old. Ah well: carry on You Kidz You!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
Sounds like a pretty big deal if Finland is expressing interest in joining NATO. They must feel threatened by Putin’s Russia
sdhays
@debbie: They both consider it in their interests to weaken the United States. How things work out in Ukraine will likely have a ramifications for Taiwan as well, I expect.
Roger Moore
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Remember talking with a friend of a friend when this became a topic of discussion. I mentioned that I thought Putin was dangerous and they answered back with something about how he was no worse than American politicians. I countered with him having reporters he didn’t like killed, and they just kind of smirked and refused to engage as if I was being hopelessly naive. I guess they thought American presidents routinely have people murdered, or maybe that it’s silly to treat that as something worth worrying about when compared to the casualties from one of our wars or something.
eclare
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Russia needs “security.” It was a snippet in a Channel 4 video.
Steeplejack
Excellent post, G&T!
James E Powell
I don’t know, G&T, that seems like a pretty good analogy.
Laura Too
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks for the post, and explaining the joke. I didn’t get it either.
Rusty
Thanks to everyone, especially Gin & Tonic of course. I know much more after reading than I knew before. Thank you.
Omnes Omnibus
The US is readying elements of XVIII Airborne Corps for deployment. This does not mean that we are getting ready to send them to Ukraine itself.
Brachiator
@Roger Moore:
This is definitely true. There are weird leftists who absolutely believe that the US is the fount of all evil, maybe because we are hypocrites, or something.
Over the years I have run across people who strenuously insist that every other nation would abandon nuclear weapons if only the US would do it. They only see the bad the US has done, and simply ignore what other nations have done.
I remembered this because sometimes the people here would become angry or extremely agitated. They really held to a wild view that if only the US would repent and to the right thing, all the evil in the world would disappear.
Not always as bad, but sometimes close, were people who resolutely refused to criticize anything that the old Soviet Union or Cuba did, because they thought it essential to encourage the spread of communism no matter what.
Matt McIrvin
@Brachiator:
Trump would have simply rolled over for him and made that okay, because it would be Trump doing it. So, a completely different situation from Biden.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Roger Moore:
I’d have just responded that both are bad and it’s OK to oppose both US and Russian imperialism. Imperialism is imperialism no matter who does it.
I see that attitude in a lot of Dead Kennedys songs, particularly I Am the Owl:
They did tend to reference a lot of real events in their songs, but who knows if any of this true, perhaps COINTELPRO?
Mike in NC
@Gin & Tonic: In 2014 we took a fabulous cruise of the Baltic Sea, which departed from England and had stops in Copenhagen, Stockholm, Helsinki, Saint Petersburg, Tallinn, and Visby (Sweden). We were told that before the fall of the USSR, Helsinki was often used to portray Leningrad in movies. It was a pretty grim looking place.
tomtofa
Thanks. Between this and Heather Cox Richardson’s letter today about Ukraine, it’s becoming a little less opaque.
Villago Delenda Est
The long history of Russia is all about protecting the Homeland (essentially, Greater Moscow) from the depredations of invaders. The Russian expansion from the 15th Century on reflects the great psychological damage the Mongols did to the Russians in the early half of the second millennium. This is just more of the same. If the Russians had their way, their western frontier would be the English Channel. Also, Putin has internal problems, and he wants to create internal problems for our adult president as opposed to the pathetic lapdog who shat in the Oval Office from 2017 to 2021.
Redshift
@Xantar: I have read that Putin paints NATO as a threat for domestic purposes – things are hard because NATO is taking all these actions to destroy Russia, not because the government and the oligarchs are incredibly corrupt and not working in the interests of the people.
And because one of the things he really doesn’t want is countries in Russia’s “sphere” moving toward Europe, no matter what their people want, he wants to portray NATO as (in the words of Tucker Carlson) “America’s satellites.”
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Brachiator:
Which is wild to me. It’s like, what about all the evil the previous hedgemon, the British Empire, did? Or the French Empire? The Japanese Empire in Mainland Asia?
Seems to me, everyone has had blood on their hands at some point. Nobody is a saint if you look back far enough
Roger Moore
@Villago Delenda Est:
I assume it’s less about wanting to cause problems for other than it is wanting to provide distractions for people who might otherwise want to start blaming him for their problems. Not that these are mutually exclusive.
terry chay
@Xantar: Russian media portrays them as the ones surrounded by NATO and Europe as puppets of the US.
Seen another way, if Dick Cheney can invade Iraq because he owes his pants at the remote possibility of Saddam getting a weapon of mass destruction and call it “defense” then it isn’t a leap to understand the mentality of Putin and much of Russia here.
The real mystery is why people like Tucker Carlson and FOX News is beating the drum for Russia. At least Putin and the majority of his support in Russia are being nationalist. Here, we have a huge segment of America that is so hateful of the majority here that they’d go to bat for our enemy.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
I knew things would destabilize once Carrie Matheson retired
Gin & Tonic
@Villago Delenda Est:
Funny, a *lot* of people in Ukraine, including some media and government types, refer to their eastern neighbor not as “Rossiya” (Росія) but as “Московія” (Muscovy.)
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@eclare:
Ugh. The same thing could’ve been said in the 1930s of Nazi Germany…
Grumpy Old Railroader
Fascinating thread. I learned stuff!
Brachiator
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
This belief is not really rational, so it does not help to point this kind of thing out.
Even when talking about the Middle East, these people would only talk about CIA plots beginning in the 1940s and totally ignore Great Britain’s prior control of the region.
terry chay
@Xantar: G&T already explained that as far as Putin and his ilk are concerned Ukraine is a rightful part of “greater Russia” so any NATO troops in Ukraine would be “troops marching across the Russian border.”
I fail to see how it is relevant that the fact in the ground is that nobody in Ukraine would see NATO membership that way and that isn’t what NATO is about. Russia’s entire foreign policy for the last decade is to pretend and rewrite everything that occurred since 1989 in a way favorable to themselves.
Gin & Tonic
Just paused to think how this thread would have played out if our old friend BiP was still here.
Baud
@terry chay:
Yeah, the easiest thing to understand is the ability of a population to believe in lies.
Roger Moore
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
I think there’s a group who confuse whoever is powerful right now with power in the abstract. Power can be, and often is, abused, so it’s good to keep anyone from collecting too much of it. But these people somehow think that if they take down whoever has the most power right now, they’ll do away with the danger of concentrated power permanently. That could be leftists who want to end American imperialism to bring about world peace, or it could be libertarians who want to end government to enhance human freedom. Either way, they just don’t want to accept that they’d just promote the next power rather than ending power completely.
zhena gogolia
@Roger Moore: I think it’s not a coincidence that he’s saber rattling while Biden is president.
Gin & Tonic
@terry chay: Between Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Finland, Sweden, comrade Vladimir Vladimirovich is NATO’s best salesman.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: Hahaha
We really don’t have enough “dissenting voices.” //
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
Oh, I forgot about him. Come to think of it, I don’t think NR would be very fun to still have around either
Villago Delenda Est
@Brachiator:
The mess that is the Middle East can be laid at the feet of the Brits and the French and their partition of the Ottoman Empire after WWI.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
Agreed. He knows he has allies in the GOP who will use his actions to weaken U.S. democracy.
Omnes Omnibus
@Gin & Tonic: NULAND!!!!!!!!
Matt McIrvin
@Brachiator: There is something to be said for holding your own country to unusually high standards because it is the only country in which you have any (perhaps microscopic) degree of political power. The US also has unusually great power internationally, which means that any evil it possesses is magnified. But these are different things from regarding it as the source of all evil.
schrodingers_cat
What would you do if you were Biden?
What would you do If you were advising Biden.
debbie
@Gin & Tonic:
Life’s rich irony!
schrodingers_cat
@Roger Moore: They are delusional or very young or both.
CarolPW
@Gin & Tonic: There would be a lot of pie.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
I would tell him to do follow the advice of Internet experts.
Roger Moore
@Villago Delenda Est:
They certainly set things up to be awful, but the situation would probably be better if we had been working on improving things rather than making them worse. There’s plenty of blame to go around.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: All of them of course.
Villago Delenda Est
Many of the old timers around here probably remember “Bob in Portland” who was an unabashed Russophile, and denounced Ukraine as a fascist state, ignoring Vlad’s Tattaglia approach to governance.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus:
Twitter poll.
Democracy in action
Gin & Tonic
@schrodingers_cat: I think I pointed to it up top. Prepare for offensive cyber-measures.
Villago Delenda Est
@Roger Moore:
True, we’ve been fucking things up there since 1948. The entire guilt trip over the Holocaust (somewhat justified; FDR ignored the plight of those on the M.S. St. Louis, for example) complicates things immensely. Couple that with rapid modernization, particularly of warfare, and yeah, we’ve got trouble.
Baud
@Roger Moore:
Agreed. But the impossible part is imagining what these places would look like in an alternative history where the West did things differently.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Roger Moore:
Pretty much
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
Eh, it can make for some good Alt History fiction when handled properly tbf
Gin & Tonic
With that, I’m going to check out. Dog needs to go pee, then I’m probably going to sack out.
Thanks to WaterGirl for prompting this, and thanks for the kind words from many of you. I hope I was able to provide some useful background.
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Fiction being the operative word.
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks again for doing this.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
What would offensive-cyber measures look like?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
Thanks again!
Brachiator
@Matt McIrvin:
But that is the point. These people have gone over the edge. They are not holding the US to a high standard. It is strangely infantile.
And as I noted, it was uncomfortable to watch a couple of these types become agitated as they insisted that world peace was achievable if only the US would do the right thing and give up its nukes.
Gin & Tonic
@Baud: OT, but FYI, things didn’t go well at the consulate. She got a 221g instead of a visa (additional administrative processing.) It seems their lawyers didn’t submit all the necessary paperwork prior to the stated deadline.
Fucking lawyers, you know? Fire them all into the sun.
Omnes Omnibus
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks for this. It is one of the biggest things happening right now.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Brachiator:
In your opinion, what would help, then?
Suzanne
This is great. Thank you.
terry chay
@Gin & Tonic: Agreed. Long term all his actions create the very thing he fears. As you pointed out the same happened in Ukraine after the 2014 invasion. Heck, it happened at the start of the Cold War by starting the Korean War.
The result then was millions in the country of my parents origin dying and my family being permanently riven from their birthplace. The result for Ukraine will be a bitter pill if the outcome is similarly “stupid” (invasion).
Its important to remember that and be angry about the possibility so that we have the resolve to do what’s right. It is nice to be one of the good guys in this case. So often in our (US) history during my lifetime, we haven’t.
Another Scott
@Gin & Tonic: Ack! You made me look (from 2014).
“Bob in Portland” gives 73 hits in that thread.
Ack! Ack!
Cheers,
Scott.
TheflipPsyd
Anyone watch Rachel tonight? Early story was about underwater cables being cut, Russia military maneuvers off Irish coast — near the cables that link north America with Europe and how cutting them would kill European economy. Irish fisherman will be peacefully protesting. Scary times and how much worse would things get if Russia decided to cut those cables
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
To add onto this, would we see cyber attacks on American and allies’ infrastructure in response?
debbie
@terry chay:
I’d like to see Biden say that out loud to Putin’s face.
terry chay
@Another Scott: Yeah pretty sure he was a Russian Bot. He was a certain way long before the invasion of Crimea ever came up that I was nonplussed when he wrote that stuff.
BruceFromOhio
G&T, thanks for putting this together.
Lyrebird
@Gin & Tonic: Very true!
Sorry I didn’t give better context, also. I meant to try to connect my comment to the history of Ukrainian reasons to distrust Russian empires, also long and involved.
Regarding language, I remember being a bit bowled over to learn that Lviv which under Poland was Lvov used to be part of Austro Hungary and was called Lemberg.
dr. luba
We refer to Russians as Moskali (Москалі) and to Russia as Moskovia (Московія) because that is who they are. They called themselves that until Ivan the Terrible got delusions of grandeur (Third Rome my ass!) in 1547 and decided to rename his backwater duchy after the medieval empire of (Kyivan) Rus.
Ukrainians had referred to themselves as Rusyny (people of Rus) historically, until “Ukrainian” became the more common usage in the 1800s.
Thus the Muscovites appropriated Ukraine’s name and its ancient history.
Another Scott
@TheflipPsyd: I didn’t see the story, but there are lots of undersea cables.
Cheers,
Scott.
Doug R
@Nelle: I’m from a Mennonite background as well, my father was born in Ukraine in 1922. His was just a kid when his father (David) and mother (Nelly) took him and his younger sister and immigrated/fled to Canada.
dr. luba
Because giving up its nukes has worked out so well for Ukraine.
TheflipPsyd
@Another Scott: Apparently, there have been a couple of mysterious cuts in undersea cables and Russia is a prime suspect. The ones near Irish coast are internet cables and if they were sabotaged it would be devastating. And now Russia is going to be doing some military maneuvers with artillery right in that area where the cables are. Hopefully the Russians won’t try anything with the Irish fisherman and there is no escalation.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@debbie:
OT, but what did you think of the newly drawn Ohio maps? They’re better than the old ones, but I don’t like how they’ll only last 4 years instead of 10. Plus, I l’m still stuck in that blockhead Bill Johnson’s district
Brachiator
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Some people are fanatical about their crazy beliefs. There is not much you can do about it. I just try to give them their space.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@TheflipPsyd:
Do these cables serve more than Ireland? I’m assuming that’s the case. Ireland isn’t a NATO member, so cutting internet cables could also outrage them too
TheflipPsyd
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): i believe the cables service at least all of Northern Europe and Rachel quotes someone as saying that if the cables were cut it would be devastating for Europe’s economy.
thalarctosMaritimus
@Roger Moore: go on…
Another Scott
@TheflipPsyd: I’m not seeing any news of cables being cut there.
It sounds like a recycle of this story from 2020 which doesn’t cite any sources that I can see.
Dunno.
Cheers,
Scott.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@TheflipPsyd:
It would be very stupid of Putin to do that. All that would do is piss off much of Europe and harden Western public opinion against him
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Brachiator:
Sigh. You’re probably right. Still, it would be nice to get through to these people
Tehanu
Just a thank-you for this. I still don’t know much, but I know more than I did.
Villago Delenda Est
@Brachiator: Like on islands in the Aleutians.
TheflipPsyd
I don’t see any clips from tonight’s episode online yet. The Russians possibly cutting deep sea cables story was the intro to the story about Irish fisherman who were protesting the Russia military doing some kind of military maneuvers off the coast. These were two stories I think Maddow put together. It was one of her “watch this space” segment.
Madeleine
Thanks for writing this post and for keeping your readers in mind. You made it easy to take in a lot of information.
CaseyL
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): If Vlad plays his cards right, he can unite the Western world by sabotaging their infrastructure like that.
Matt McIrvin
@Villago Delenda Est: One of his big things was to endorse the Russian line on Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, that the Ukrainian government shot it down and not the pro-Russian forces, and his main argument was “Bush lied about Iraq, therefore the opposite of everything the Americans say is true.”
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@CaseyL:
Pretty much. It’s just like G&T and terry up above observed: his actions are only making the situation worse for himself and Russia
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Matt McIrvin:
I guess more than one thing couldn’t be true at the same time in his world
Brachiator
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
But consider the flip side. If you get lucky you may run across people whose ideas delight you and excite you, lead you to look at things in new ways, challenge everything you thought you knew.
Omnes Omnibus
@Brachiator: Nah, he ended up at Balloon Juice instead.
Another Scott
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Found it.
It’s a very long, and depressing thread. You’ll need to click “read more replies” (or equivalent) to read all of it.
Note he seems to call artillery “fire”.
I don’t think it will work out the way he predicts, but there’s little doubt it will be bad if VVP does invade Ukraine again.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
I searched this thread for the string “Afghanistan” and got zero hits. Do you people have no historical memory?
What the Biden administration — Austin, Blinken, Sullivan, etc. have without a shadow of a doubt told Putin and his cronies is that if they should decide on a military incursion into Ukraine, the US would regard that action as an excellent opportunity to recreate the bleeding wound that destroyed the Soviet armed forces in Afghanistan.
Russia is a third-rate power with the GDP of Austalia. The show on the Ukranian border is pure bullshit. It’s all theater, because while Putin is a World-class asshole, he is not an idiot, and he was actually around while the Soviet army bled to death in Afghanistan. I’ll take 10:1 odds that he’s not dumb enough to reverse the logic of asymmetric warfare and allow the West to bleed the Russian army for the cost of some cheap weapons and intelligence, bringing a new Afganistan 1000 miles closer to Moscow and Petersburg.
You all need to calm down. There is nothing actually going on here. Drums, not war.
Omnes Omnibus
@Another Scott: Referring to artillery as fires is not uncommon.
stinger
So informative — thank you, Gin & Tonic.
Another Scott
@Omnes Omnibus: Interesting. And disturbing.
Cheers,
Scott.
JWR
Dear G&T,
Such a great post! I’ve had a few questions about Ukraine, but you seem to have answered most or all of them in your post. Thank you!
The Dangerman
Let’s see … if Russia invades, it will make Biden look bad and all those times that Trump serviced Putin would pay off … and if Russia doesn’t invade, it will be because of all those times Trump serviced Putin. Do I win the Wingnutty Prize for the night?
Fair Economist
@banditqueen: That’s what I see, but even stronger than that. Putin has causes a major economic crisis in Muscovy – the stock market is down 30%, and they’ve had to make the Ruble inconvertible, at least temporarily. Europe has developed an interest in speeding up the transition to renewables. For him to back down now would leave him with no substantial political support – the people already hated him, business will hate him for the economic mess, and his psychopathic siloviki supporters will be upset they didn’t get to beat up and kill some Ukrainians. So he has to invade and hope the Ukrainians won’t go to guerrilla warfare, because that will leave him in another Afghanistan-style mire with economic warfare with the West piled on top.
This is all very bad for the Ukrainians, but it looks to me like Putin has trapped himself and all his paths forward risk disaster for him.
Another Scott
I had questions about the Poroshenko treason prosecution above. KyivIndependent seems to have a decent and balanced explanation of what’s going on there.
Cheers,
Scott.
PJ
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): There are still people using Tumblr?
PJ
@Gin & Tonic: Whatever you do, don’t say his name three times!
PJ
@Villago Delenda Est: If you think that non-European peoples can have agency, too, it seems like the Turks* and the various peoples who make up the Middle East have also had a sizable role in why the Middle East is screwed up.
*Yes, I know part of Turkey is in Europe.
PJ
@Villago Delenda Est: Shit, that’s two times his name has been invoked!
PJ
@Another Scott: Fuck, you did it. That was the third time someone called him forth! Don’t you people learn?!!
JWR
@The Dangerman:
Nope, I came up with a theory, which is mine, I own it, and this is it: in which Russia risks an all out ground war in Ukraine not just to distract us from TFG’s criming, but to distract us from the activities of a big chunk of the Republican party.
And that’s my cray-cray theory. What do I win? ;)
PJ
@terry chay: He was too weird to be a Russian Bot. He said some things that indicated that he had been some kind of hippie in the late ’60s/early ’70s and “the man” had done something which he believed had screwed up his life permanently. Somewhere along the line, he referenced working for the USPS. He came across as not too different from any number of left-wing burnouts I’ve encountered, for whom anything the US does is wrong and evil, and anything another country does which could be perceived to be against US interests (like invading Ukraine) is right and good.
Omnes Omnibus
@PJ: He also was a big Elvis Costello fan.
PJ
@Omnes Omnibus: Well, we have that in common. I may have to reexamine my values from top to bottom.
Omnes Omnibus
@PJ: David Cameron was a fan of the Jam. Now what do you do?
dr. luba
@Fair Economist:
He’s out of luck then. Ukrainians will resist.
The Pale Scot
@Another Scott:
Still Around
bill in portland
The Pale Scot
@Another Scott:
Believe the is the what
Norwegian Undersea Surveillance Network Had Its Cables Mysteriously Cut
Steeplejack (phone)
@Another Scott:
Per Maddow’s show tonight, cables and sensors were damaged off Norway in the last several months. All that is happening around Ireland right now is that a mysterious Russian military ship is prowling the area and apparently has capabilities to launch deep-sea mini-subs to damage cables.
And Russia will be conducting naval maneuvers in the area soon, which is seen as a provocation. That is what the Irish fishermen will be protesting.
PJ
@Omnes Omnibus: I am a shattered man. How can I share tastes with people whose political beliefs are antithetical to mine?
Whatever you do, please don’t tell me that George W. Bush likes Alejandro Escovedo!
Another Scott
@The Pale Scot: Wrong dudes.
The website pointed to by his ‘nym still works.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Steeplejack (phone)
@The Pale Scot:
Our guy was Bob in Portland, not Bill, and I always thought he was in Portland, OR, not Portland, ME. Bob in Portland had this link in his nym.
PJ
@The Pale Scot: Whoever that is doesn’t sound at all like the guy who was prone to derailing posts here.
Omnes Omnibus
@PJ: You seem like you already know.
PJ
@Omnes Omnibus: I’ve been living with the shame for years.
Alejandro, too. He refused to play “Castanets”, the song W. said he liked, for the rest of W.’s term in office.
Omnes Omnibus
@PJ: It’s a tough life, but you are tough too. Buck up, little camper.
lurker
obviously the topical question here is whether one needs a subtweeter to subtweet on the bird social media thing, or whether a tweeter would be sufficient. I think an old speaker around here has a tweeter in it. Might try taking that out and using it with twitter
…
thanks to G&T for the post – informative and helpful to at least fill in a few gaps on an area of the world I have incomplete understanding of
thanks to wg for reminding me of buying my first stereo – had both a turntable and a cassette deck as well as a tuner, and two (count them – two!) speakers. no subwoofer. Skipped the models with the 8-track though…
Omnes Omnibus
A view from Germany.
Another Scott
@Omnes Omnibus: Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
The Pale Scot
@PJ:
I saw the left wing wacko stuff and just assumed he’s a trolling switch hitter
Another Scott
Cheers,
Scott.
Hob
Chiming in late to say many thanks to Gin & Tonic for the post.
Also, about this—
—That right there would be enough to convince me of Putin being deeply involved with the US right wing, even if none of the other super-obviously-shady stuff with Trump & co. was known. I mean, I’ve been listening to all kinds of random GOP/Bircher assholes since the ’80s. Not one of those guys would’ve dreamed of having an opinion on Russia vs. Ukraine even 15 years ago unless they had relatives there or something, if they even knew or cared where Ukraine was, except maybe some very confused anti-Russia ideas based on not really getting that it wasn’t Communist any more. And now it’s this received idea on the far right, not just thinking that Putin is cool because he’s pro-Trump and an asshole or because Democrats don’t like him, but having these very specific international political opinions. Like, even assholes who are sincerely fans of Trump don’t spend their time railing against various businessmen Trump has grudges against for business reasons.
bjacques
@Steeplejack (phone): Brick Oven Bill? He of the laughing helicopters?
spc123
@eclare: eastern european rightists (with the exception of Poland) tend to show mixed at best reactions to Russian foreign policy (if not outright admiration such as the Fidez party). I would expect a similar reaction from Slovenia’s current PM. They admire the etho-nationalism elements of the Putin regime (including the affiliation with religion).
Uncle Cosmo
@PJ: Calm the fuck down. They all misspelled “Bozo in Putinland” so we’re still OK.
Steeplejack (phone)
@bjacques:
The laughing helicopters guy was Michael Gass.
Barney
@lurker: We can’t let this “buying a stereo” talk go without posting this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvswW6M7bMo
Chief Oshkosh
@Spanky:
The US State Dept?
Denali
Thanks for a great thread, Gin and Tonic.
All I need to know if whether I should be worried about my son and his family in Hungary. I know Orban is Putin’s best bud, but still.
Senator Ted
Fantastic FAQ, thank you so much G&T and Watergirl.
Alce_e_ardillo
@zhena gogolia: IOW Putin has managed to unite the west against him. Brilliant.