I really don’t know what is going on in Ukraine right now? Is that sociopath really going to invade?
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by John Cole| 99 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs
I really don’t know what is going on in Ukraine right now? Is that sociopath really going to invade?
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Unabogie
I think Putin would love to invade. It’s insane that there are people who claim to be on the “Left”, who are giving Putin a pass and putting this on Joe Biden. It’s bizarre to watch socialists defend the world’s wealthiest oligarch who is also known for persecuting LGBTQI folks and murdering his opponents.
Dopey-o
Wednesday morning at 5 o’clock as the day begins, Russian troops will shell Kyiv and capture the capital.
Gin & Tonic
Only one person knows the answer to that.
Major Major Major Major
My very amateur guess based on what I’ve read is that Putin is interested in a punitive “Sherman’s march to Kyiv” but has no intention of occupying anything. Whether he will… I am not privy to that intelligence.
Doug R
If you look at the COVID infection rate for Russia, looks like omicron is ramping up.
Going to be impossible for it not to spread among 130,000 troops.
zhena gogolia
@Major Major Major Major: “punitive” for what?
Hunter Gathers
If he wants to shoot himself in the dick, why should we stop him?
Chacal Charles Caltrop
I think there’s no chance Putin is going to invade until the Winter Olympics are over…. but that’s in a week.
Ryan
I suspect, with no evidence, that he’s been convinced that he’s in a position to obtain a nearly bloodless coup and replace the current government with a Russian-leaning one. I don’t think he recognizes Belarus, Ukraine, and possibly other republics as separate from the greater Russia.
germy
I wonder if Putin has a vaccine mandate for his troops.
Major Major Major Major
@zhena gogolia: Zelensky not being the lapdog “peace candidate” Putin thinks he was promised.
debbie
@zhena gogolia:
Zelensky’s impudence is my guess.
Omnes Omnibus
The 20th should tell. End of the Olympics and the scheduled end of the joint maneuver exercise. You can’t keep troops massed on the border for ever. Tanks and self-propelled guns will need maintenance. And from what I have seen of the some of equipment being rail headed to the border, it looks as though it’s come from a storage depot. That means it is untested and will need to be brought up from storage to operational readiness. I don’t know what that means from a Putin’s intentions point of view, but they don’t necessarily look fully ready to go right now.
germy
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Unabogie:
Not just the weird fucking left (though Tara Reade has, of course, weighed in on behalf of Putin), I’m seeing a lot of tweets from people seem to believe that Putin will make his decision based on White House “messaging”. Which I well and truly don’t get.
(Also, I’d like to kill the word “messaging”. I’d like to kill it with fire. Also “nothing burger”. While I’m killing words)
SpaceUnit
I’m pretty sure this crisis is being orchestrated for maximum effect in the US media.
No idea where it all ends up.
germy
Retweeted by Cheryl Rofer:
Martin
Yep. I think the west has made it clear that it will not back up Article 5, so this is more erosion of NATO.
And Biden only threatened Nordstream 2, not Nordstream 1 which would really hurt, but that’s a bridge too far for Germany. Germany cares about Ukraine, but not *that* much. Western commitment has been measured and come up short, I suspect.
Omnes Omnibus
How so?
germy
The guy who raised his fist in solidarity with the Jan. 6 mob is blocking important confirmations. He seems to want to protect Putin.
Martin
@SpaceUnit: Eroding support for NATO among the GOP. The GOP has always had a bent away from the social contract, and therefore democracy. It’s not interested in global contracts either, being wary of the UN. That’s only grown worse. And while the US is more than willing to impose our standards on the rest of the world, we really can only do that as part of a coalition, and the GOP is now anti-coalition, with Trump being decidedly more aligned with anti-democratic leaders than pro-democratic ones, and his followers going along. A future GOP administration is going to either side with Putin or give him a complete pass while also begging off any and all international commitments. Putin can have the run of the place, and the current GOP is more than happy to go along.
Ella in New Mexico
@Doug R:
Wait till those troops spend 2 weeks with fever, chills, headache and stuff coming out of both ends while they sit in freezing temperatures
Omicron causes the worst GI illness I’ve seen since Norovirus
marcopolo
@Martin: you are aware that Ukraine is not a part of NATO & article 5 doesn’t apply, right?
Major Major Major Major
@SpaceUnit: what do you mean?
dmsilev
@Martin: Ukraine isn’t a NATO member, so how does Article 5 come into play?
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Biden won’t play the evil warmonger by sending in troops so they have nothing left but “messaging.”
Omnes Omnibus
@marcopolo: Yes, the whole point of moving troops into the eastern parts of Nato is for a show of strength and support for those countries that are part of Putin’s idea of Greater Russia but have no wish to be.
SpaceUnit
@Martin:
Yep. By having himself portrayed as Biden’s opponent in right-wing media, Putin is going to end up as popular among republicans as TFG.
It’s sickening, but that’s where we are as a country.
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: Isn’t the the truth.
WaterGirl
@Hunter Gathers:
You mean, other than all the people in Ukraine who will die?
Brachiator
This is one of those areas where I just cross my fingers and hope that no one, especially Putin, does anything stupid.
VOR
Ukraine is not a NATO member. Article 5 of the NATO treaty does not apply to Ukraine, only NATO members. That’s not “The West” declining to enforce. The Baltics and Poland are NATO countries and I haven’t heard any serious suggestion that NATO treaty obligations to them are optional.
This could seriously backfire on Putin if Finland and Sweden get interested in joining NATO in response to Russian aggression against Ukraine.
sab
@germy: He does, but their vaccine does not actually work. That’s a problem that possibly he thinks he can solve by deflecting to war.
Probably won’t work, but that won’t save the hundreds of thousands in his misbeguided path.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: Yeah, I don’t think Putin can win, if winning means taking over Ukraine or install a pro-Russian government, but it would be best if his not winning didn’t come at the cost of thousands of lives.
germy
@Baud:
I thought we had sanctions as an option. And aren’t our hackers just as talented as Putin’s hackers? I think Biden can do harm without firing a single shot.
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I don’t think the US messaging (yes, kill it with fire) around Ukraine has been messy. It’s been very consistent.
How has it been messy, in your opinion?
Baud
@germy:
I’m sure these same people will criticize Biden for that too.
WaterGirl
@Martin:
I didn’t understand what this meant when people said it yesterday, and I still don’t understand it today.
Ukraine isn’t in NATO. So how has the West made it clear that it will not back up Article 5?
edit: I see that at least 5 people have asked this question before me. I will be interested in seeing the answer.
Almost Retired
@Gin & Tonic: I had lunch with a bunch of colleagues last week, and one of them was a Ukrainian-American who frequently travels back home and has strong ties to the country. Naturally, she was peppered with questions about the looming conflict. Absolutely everything she said (and didn’t say, in terms of “who knows”) completely paralleled your post of a couple weeks back.
I was tempted to ask “wait…..are you “Gin & Tonic,” but that would sound weird, and I think she already has an opinion about me on that front that I didn’t want to reinforce. Plus, I remembered you once posted something about buying a snowblower. I don’t think someone living in Sherman Oaks would really need one.
Thanks for all of your insight on this issue!
Mike in NC
The US Government has no record of the meetings and conversations that Trump and Putin had. It’s not unreasonable to believe that Trump was sure of reelection and signaled to the Russian dictator that he wouldn’t bat an eye if Putin tried to rebuild the Russian empire.
Martin
@Omnes Omnibus: Article 5 is the whole point of NATO. It’s a joint defense pact, and if a state like Ukraine, which NATO has said will be in NATO eventually and currently has something of a contract with NATO isn’t worthy of Article 5 defense, then basically nobody is. Policies are only as useful as your willingness to enforce them. Once they are revealed to be unenforceable, then nobody respects the policy, including the people who wrote it.
The GOP is now where Putin wants them to be. The pro-war, anti-Communist won’t even launch missiles in defense of Article 5, let alone deploy ground troops. Trumps poorly managed plan to withdraw from Afghanistan made that clear enough. He could have worked to backfill our role so we could withdraw, but didn’t, which led to Afghanistan falling. It revealed we didn’t give a shit about Afghanistan democracy or their people.
So while Democrats are in the WH, Putin will wage a war, the GOP in congress will go along with that war because the GOPs only interest is in domestic culture war issues, which instinctively puts them against anything the Dem administration is trying to do. And they are actively sabotaging Biden effort here as well. Expect Trump to jump in the fray as well and blame this all on Biden rather than on Putin.
So why wouldn’t Putin continue to do this, continue to turn the GOP into an ally, continue to nurture the GOP into opposing the global social contract, and continuing to take the US off the playing field, which also means that NATO can’t count on the US, which means NATO is meaningless. The harder Dems try to stand with NATO, the harder the GOP will push against NATO because in the culture war, they need to set all agendas, therefore they MUST oppose the Dem agenda at all costs.
Baud
@Martin:
That makes zero sense.
Omnes Omnibus
@Almost Retired: G&T has noted in the past that he is a Mustache-American. Did this person have a mustache?
Omnes Omnibus
@Martin:
Aside from the condescending first sentence, none of that makes any sense.
Baud
We keep hearing about the bad progressives. Are there any progressives backing up Biden and criticizing Putin?
The Dangerman
The only things I can predict are, if Putin invades, Fox will blame Biden…
…and if he doesn’t, Fox will credit Trump. Sure, it makes no sense, but we are beyond making sense.
My real guess is he backs down. This was all an exercise in wagging the dog.
SpaceUnit
@Major Major Major Major:
I think that Putin’s primary objectives are 1) to damage the current administration’s approval numbers by having the crisis portrayed as as something that Biden has bungled, and 2) to raise his own favorability on the right. The next Republican president will likely be as pro-Putin as they are anti-vax.
mrmoshpotato
@SpaceUnit:
Oh, they love jerking off to war, even the possibility of war. Their shitbag asses should all go enlist.
germy
“Are we close to a hot war?”
– John Cole
“I would strongly recommend, that just to be prudent, everyone fill up their vehicles, make sure you have a week to ten days worth of non-perishable food and water including enough for your pets, and if possible you top up your prescription medications if you can just in case.”
– Adam Silverman
marcopolo
@Martin: where in the fuckety fuck has NATO (anyone w/ in authority) said Ukraine will eventually be a part of it? A huge amount of the current reason Putin is using as “the provocation” for his aggressiveness is fear of Ukraine hooking up w/ the EU/NATO. I know of no actual political leaders (currently holding office) in NATO/EU countries who’ve said what you just wrote. They might (or might not) welcome Ukraine’s application but they ain’t soliciting it.
C’mon man, start making some sense.
SpaceUnit
@mrmoshpotato:
Many in the media are already engaged, some as willing accomplices and others as unwitting fools.
Martin
@WaterGirl: The head of NATO has said that Ukraine *will* be in NATO. They aren’t there now, but in almost every way NATO has signaled that Ukraine is deserving of NATO membership. Ukraine and NATO have done joint training. Yes, it’s not formally part of NATO, but NATO can’t just say ‘well, they didn’t sign the paperwork yet, so fuck ’em’. No, they’ve already signaled some degree of commitment to Ukraine, because the one way that Ukraine never becomes a NATO member is if Russia invades and annexes them.
The reality is that while there are NATO members that would get a full military defense under section 5, it’s not all NATO members. The US lacks the appetite for it, the GOP are increasingly pro-Putin and anti-NATO, and so long as Putin wages these wars under Democratic presidents, that will only grow.
marcopolo
@SpaceUnit: I think Putin has a lot bigger problems w/ unhappy folks in Russia—and that THIS is what he is trying to deal w/ (and trying to keep Ukraine in the Russian sphere of influence as well. Anything that happens here in the US is just slop over (though probably assisted by Russian acts) from that.
VOR
@Martin: So NATO ought to invoke Article 5 to defend a country that is not a NATO member and hasn’t applied to be a NATO member just because it is possible at some unknown future date the country could join NATO?
By that logic NATO could potentially intervene in practically any conflict in the world.
Almost Retired
@Martin: I’m not getting a “let’s admit Ukraine” vibe within NATO from anything I’ve read. Are you getting a different message from another source? My impression is that most of the NATO countries have sort of a “Mourir pour Dantzig?” attitude towards Ukraine.
marcopolo
@Martin: First, please give me the cite on that comment by the head of NATO—I’m willing to find out I’m wrong.
Second, what’s the point of being a NATO member (and having to go thru the application & vetting princess and signing the treaty) if NATO will just step forward & defend anyone?
Third, who are these NATO members that NATO would not defend? I sure bet they’d like to know. Everything I’ve read says NATO is ready to defend the Baltic states & Poland from Russian aggression.
SpaceUnit
@marcopolo:
Respectfully, I disagree. I don’t think Putin is particularly concerned with his popularity in Russia. He has a very firm grip on power.
Also, he could have invaded the Ukraine at any time during the TFG’s administration and Trump would have signaled his approval. It would be over and done.
Another Scott
@Martin: Made me look.
NATO.int (from the December 2021 joint press conference):
The last sentence is probably one of the most important. Ukraine is not joining NATO for a very long time, and only with the consent of the existing members. There’s a huge difference between saying any European country can join NATO and implementing all of the steps necessary for membership.
VVP will use any real or fabricated excuse as a pretext to get what he wants.
Cheers,
Scott.
Omnes Omnibus
@Martin: Actual membership means something. Ukraine, at the moment, is a nonaligned but friendly nation. Article 5 does not apply. Suggesting that Ukraine is some kind of quasi-member holds no water. Further, although Nato won’t go to war over this, it is making it clear that violating Ukrainian sovereignty with be met with strong nonmilitary consequences. So, no, you have the wrong end of the stick.
Doug R
@germy: The overall vaccination rate for Russia was 49% and that was for the craptacular Sputnik.
zhena gogolia
@Doug R: I’m praying it’s not craptacular. It’s what my best friend has.
Martin
@marcopolo: NATO leadership has already promised both Ukraine and Georgia a membership action plan. They are promised invitation to NATO, with each nation able to refuse the invitation. Based on statements by the current head of Ukraine and polling on support for a referendum to join, both parties are treating this as a fait accompli. Now, it’s obviously not, but it aspires to be.
Major Major Major Major
@SpaceUnit: I saw a poll yesterday that while republicans obviously disapprove of Biden’s handling of the situation, they’re also most likely to say it’s because he’s being too friendly to Russia.
Omnes Omnibus
Membership action plans aren’t promises. And they don’t even have one yet.
Baud
@Major Major Major Major:
Republicans have been hitting this from both sides. Completely inconsistent, but it’s an attack on Biden so it doesn’t need to be consistent.
SpaceUnit
@Major Major Major Major:
Tucker Carlson is working on it.
Doug R
@zhena gogolia: It’s an adenovirus vaccine like Astra Zeneca, which I had for my first dose. Safe enough for most people.
In the old days that would have been enough, but the mRNA vaccines like Moderna (which were my 2nd and 3rd doses) and Pfizer (my wife and daughter 3x) are just that little bit more effective.
Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine shows effectiveness against Omicron variant
marcopolo
@Another Scott: thanks for finding this. I agree that it’ll be a bit, if ever, before Ukraine joins NATO but this was a little more “in your face Russia” statement than I had though anyone in authority had made.
Heh, and it all stems from a 2008 meeting—really puts the events of the last decade plus in Ukraine into more perspective.
Baud
@marcopolo:
Another George W. Bush Easter egg?
HinTN
@Baud: I usually really respect what Martin says but in this case you are correct. The logic is flawed although the sentiment (we protect fledgling democracies) is not.
Another Scott
@marcopolo: Agreed that Stolenberg seems a little loose with his language.
NATO – April 2008:
Aspirations is probably doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
Nearly 14 years have passed since that meeting. A lot has happened in Ukraine in the meantime. There’s no indication that the process is going to speed up any time soon. It’s a very slow process when members want it to be.
Cheers,
Scott.
mrmoshpotato
@SpaceUnit:
But will the next Kremlin-humping, fascist shitstain also paint his disgusting face orange?
marcopolo
@Baud: Dunno about that, but it does give more context for Putin’s paranoia vs a vs the West. Of course, all he’d have to do to solve his problems would be to have Russia apply to join NATO—I mean I’m sure they’d have no problems with the vetting process being a model of democratic governance & a country where corruption is so hard to find… ha ha ha I made myself laugh :)
WaterGirl
@Martin: It’s my understanding is that while NATO is good with Ukraine beginning the process, it will take about 20 years before Ukraine would meet all the criterion for joining NATO, not the least of which is that you have to be on good terms with your neighboring countries.
I have a huge amount of respect for your writing on most subjects, but on this one I don’t see how we have NATO Article 5 obligations when Ukraine won’t be a member of NATO until about 20 years from now.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl: What happened to Chip?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: the ways he and his administration led to the situations we’re in now is not discussed nearly enough.
I think I’ll write to MSNBC and offer my services as a talking head.
SpaceUnit
@mrmoshpotato:
Can’t say. But it will probably mean the end of NATO.
Alce _e_ardillo
@Baud: That would depend on how you define “progressive.” Twits such as Michael Tracey, or Glenn Greenwald are not remotely progressive in my book. There is a lot of noise coming from the DSA left, but I am not sure who stands where.
Baud
@Alce _e_ardillo:
Use any definition you want. I’d like to think at least some of them are supporting U.S. policy here.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: i have no idea because no one bothered to communicate with me about it.
I am going to guess that either John or Adam moved the Artist post back
half an hourby 90 minutes – after Adam put his post up just 7 minutes before Chip’s post was scheduled to go up.Chip’s post has been in the queue for a week – it’s not like it’s not visible right there in the list of posts. This is the second time this exact thing has happened with an Adam post and an Artists post.
Personally, I think it’s rude to move someone else’s guest post back when it has been previously scheduled. Assuming I had any artistic talent at all, which I don’t, if I had an Artists post scheduled i would have told everyone I know – friends, family, everyone – to look for the post at the scheduled time. And now it’s not there.
It’s an embarrassment to everyone involved. ?♀️
Miss Bianca
@Ella in New Mexico:
This is another thing that makes me wonder whether I’ve gotten a (very mild) case of it myself, since I’ve been having a couple days of headaches and some GI issues. Thing is, tho, that they haven’t been consecutive days – it’s been like one day a week for the past three weeks.
ETA: Always on the weekend, too. >: (
Baud
@WaterGirl:
Nominated.
Omnes Omnibus
@Miss Bianca: Maybe cut down on the chili and mead nights?
Alce _e_ardillo
@SpaceUnit: I think Putin’s grip is shakier than you suppose. While he does have the support of the security apparatus and the military (I think), should an invasion go seriously wrong, or the oligarchs start to feel real pain, that could change. I believe he misjudged Biden, and thought he could bluster his way to a win.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl: I look forward to it reappearing, as I was going to show it to my husband.
Alce _e_ardillo
@Baud: So would I.
Omnes Omnibus
@Alce _e_ardillo: People interpret leaving A-stan as a sign of weakness and a sign of the US turning inward. I think, on the contrary, it was a sign of strength and freed the US to act effectively in other parts of the world.
Miss Bianca
@Omnes Omnibus: Erm…in this household it’s more likely to be wasabi and mead. But, point to consider, anyway.//
Chris Johnson
@Baud:
Yeah. The youtuber Vaush. He’s getting absolutely demolished by coordinated attacks of what he rightly calls ‘RT Leftists’, but happily he is not that worried by propaganda, only by the prospect that the propaganda blankets all discourse and that nobody’s gonna hear him out.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl: That’s too bad. I was really interested in his work.
Baud
@Chris Johnson:
I don’t do YouTube in that way, so I never heard of him. But good on him.
Urza
@germy: Russia does have a troop vaccine mandate since 2020. I looked it up when I read your comment.
Toadrick Elfheart
@Martin: Yes, since Ukraine is not part of NATO, I fail to see how Article 5 has any relevance.
Urza
@germy: I take back my last comment, apparently Putin changed his mind after vaccines became available. No mandate.
James E Powell
@Major Major Major Major:
What the polls of voters who identify as Republicans tell us is that Republican voters disapprove of what Biden is doing without regard to whether they know what Biden is doing.
jonas
@Unabogie: They hate centrist Democrats more than they love America.
VOR
It was time, past time. Biden pulled the band-aid off. Sure, we could have continued to prop up the Kabul government but the fact it fell so rapidly shows it was not going to survive. And now the US (and allies) no longer have that commitment to drain resources.
Ruckus
What with the rather lame response to vaccination that Russia has, even in comparison to the US, and the death rate, which is higher than the US, and no military vaccination mandate, and with how much the citizens respect their government, I’d imagine that vlad’s forces are suffering a lot more than ours so his strength is very likely not all it’s cracked up to be. That doesn’t mean vlad isn’t considering the worst options but other than talking, does he really have enough to work with?
sab
@Ruckus: Does Putin realize that?