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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Are We Close to a Hot War?

Are We Close to a Hot War?

by John Cole|  February 12, 20222:16 pm| 99 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs

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I really don’t know what is going on in Ukraine right now? Is that sociopath really going to invade?

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Previous Post: « The White People ‘Who Don’t See Race’ Are Racist
Next Post: A Few Bits and Bobs Regarding Ukraine spy v. spy flyouts»

Reader Interactions

99Comments

  1. 1.

    Unabogie

    February 12, 2022 at 2:18 pm

    I think Putin would love to invade. It’s insane that there are people who claim to be on the “Left”, who are giving Putin a pass and putting this on Joe Biden. It’s bizarre to watch socialists defend the world’s wealthiest oligarch who is also known for persecuting LGBTQI folks and murdering his opponents.

  2. 2.

    Dopey-o

    February 12, 2022 at 2:19 pm

    Wednesday morning at 5 o’clock as the day begins, Russian troops will shell Kyiv and capture the capital.

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 12, 2022 at 2:19 pm

    Only one person knows the answer to that.

  4. 4.

    Major Major Major Major

    February 12, 2022 at 2:22 pm

    My very amateur guess based on what I’ve read is that Putin is interested in a punitive “Sherman’s march to Kyiv” but has no intention of occupying anything. Whether he will… I am not privy to that intelligence.

  5. 5.

    Doug R

    February 12, 2022 at 2:23 pm

    If you look at the COVID infection rate for Russia, looks like omicron is ramping up.
    Going to be impossible for it not to spread among 130,000 troops.

  6. 6.

    zhena gogolia

    February 12, 2022 at 2:23 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: “punitive” for what?

  7. 7.

    Hunter Gathers

    February 12, 2022 at 2:24 pm

    If he wants to shoot himself in the dick, why should we stop him?

  8. 8.

    Chacal Charles Caltrop

    February 12, 2022 at 2:25 pm

    I think there’s no chance Putin is going to invade until the Winter Olympics are over…. but that’s in a week.

  9. 9.

    Ryan

    February 12, 2022 at 2:27 pm

    I suspect, with no evidence, that he’s been convinced that he’s in a position to obtain a nearly bloodless coup and replace the current government with a Russian-leaning one.  I don’t think he recognizes Belarus, Ukraine, and possibly other republics as separate from the greater Russia.

  10. 10.

    germy

    February 12, 2022 at 2:28 pm

    I wonder if Putin has a vaccine mandate for his troops.

  11. 11.

    Major Major Major Major

    February 12, 2022 at 2:29 pm

    @zhena gogolia: Zelensky not being the lapdog “peace candidate” Putin thinks he was promised.

  12. 12.

    debbie

    February 12, 2022 at 2:31 pm

    @zhena gogolia: 

    Zelensky’s impudence is my guess.

  13. 13.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 12, 2022 at 2:33 pm

    The 20th should tell.  End of the Olympics and the scheduled end of the joint maneuver exercise.  You can’t keep troops massed on the border for ever.  Tanks and self-propelled guns will need maintenance.  And from what I have seen of the some of equipment being rail headed to the border, it looks as though it’s come from a storage depot.  That means it is untested and will need to be brought up from storage to operational readiness.  I don’t know what that means from a Putin’s intentions point of view, but they don’t necessarily look fully ready to go right now.

  14. 14.

    germy

    February 12, 2022 at 2:33 pm

    President Biden warned Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Saturday that invading Ukraine would result in “swift and severe” costs to Russia, diminish his country’s standing and cause “widespread human suffering,” as Western officials made another diplomatic push to dissuade Mr. Putin from pressing forward with an attack.

    After the one-hour call, a senior administration official said that the situation remained as urgent as it was on Friday when Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, warned Americans to leave the country in the coming days.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/12/world/russia-ukraine-news

  15. 15.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 12, 2022 at 2:33 pm

    @Unabogie:

    It’s insane that there are people who claim to be on the “Left”, who are giving Putin a pass and putting this on Joe Biden.

    Not just the weird fucking left (though Tara Reade has, of course, weighed in on behalf of Putin), I’m seeing a lot of tweets from people seem to believe that Putin will make his decision based on White House “messaging”. Which I well and truly don’t get.

    Miriam Elder@MiriamElder·22h

    You can focus on the (very bad/messy) US messaging around Ukraine and shrug it all off — or, you can focus on the additional deployment of US troops to the region; the EU/Israel etc pulling out staff. Something has clearly changed.

    (Also, I’d like to kill the word “messaging”. I’d like to kill it with fire. Also “nothing burger”. While I’m killing words)

  16. 16.

    SpaceUnit

    February 12, 2022 at 2:37 pm

    I’m pretty sure this crisis is being orchestrated for maximum effect in the US media.

    No idea where it all ends up.

  17. 17.

    germy

    February 12, 2022 at 2:38 pm

    Retweeted by Cheryl Rofer:

    Senior Biden admin official says the US will remain "engaged" with Russia in the coming days, but has seen no "meaningful evidence of de-escalation or interest in de-escalation". https://t.co/92cegPbsaJ

    — James Politi (@JamesPoliti) February 12, 2022

  18. 18.

    Martin

    February 12, 2022 at 2:38 pm

    Yep. I think the west has made it clear that it will not back up Article 5, so this is more erosion of NATO.

    And Biden only threatened Nordstream 2, not Nordstream 1 which would really hurt, but that’s a bridge too far for Germany. Germany cares about Ukraine, but not *that* much. Western commitment has been measured and come up short, I suspect.

  19. 19.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 12, 2022 at 2:40 pm

    @Martin: Yep. I think the west has made it clear that it will not back up Article 5, so this is more erosion of NATO.

    How so?

  20. 20.

    germy

    February 12, 2022 at 2:42 pm

    The guy who raised his fist in solidarity with the Jan. 6 mob is blocking important confirmations. He seems to want to protect Putin.

    One of the nominees in limbo is Celeste Wallander, a Russia expert tapped for the Pentagon’s top international affairs job https://t.co/xVUAGhaKrD

    — Blake Hounshell (@blakehounshell) February 12, 2022

    ‘He’s making it worse’: Frustrations with Hawley’s Pentagon nominee blockade boil over
    The Missouri Republican on Thursday blocked the quick confirmation of a Russia expert as Moscow sends troops to Ukraine’s border.

  21. 21.

    Martin

    February 12, 2022 at 2:43 pm

    @SpaceUnit: Eroding support for NATO among the GOP. The GOP has always had a bent away from the social contract, and therefore democracy. It’s not interested in global contracts either, being wary of the UN. That’s only grown worse. And while the US is more than willing to impose our standards on the rest of the world, we really can only do that as part of a coalition, and the GOP is now anti-coalition, with Trump being decidedly more aligned with anti-democratic leaders than pro-democratic ones, and his followers going along. A future GOP administration is going to either side with Putin or give him a complete pass while also begging off any and all international commitments. Putin can have the run of the place, and the current GOP is more than happy to go along.

  22. 22.

    Ella in New Mexico

    February 12, 2022 at 2:43 pm

    @Doug R:

    If you look at the COVID infection rate for Russia, looks like omicron is ramping up.
    Going to be impossible for it not to spread among 130,000 troops.

    Wait till those troops spend 2 weeks with fever, chills, headache and stuff coming out of both ends while they sit in freezing temperatures

    Omicron causes the worst GI illness I’ve seen since Norovirus

  23. 23.

    marcopolo

    February 12, 2022 at 2:44 pm

    @Martin: you are aware that Ukraine is not a part of NATO & article 5 doesn’t apply, right?

  24. 24.

    Major Major Major Major

    February 12, 2022 at 2:45 pm

    @SpaceUnit: what do you mean?

  25. 25.

    dmsilev

    February 12, 2022 at 2:46 pm

    @Martin: Ukraine isn’t a NATO member, so how does Article 5 come into play?

  26. 26.

    Baud

    February 12, 2022 at 2:47 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Biden won’t play the evil warmonger by sending in troops so they have nothing left but “messaging.”

  27. 27.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 12, 2022 at 2:48 pm

    @marcopolo: Yes, the whole point of moving troops into the eastern parts of Nato is for a show of strength and support for those countries that are part of Putin’s idea of Greater Russia but have no wish to be.

  28. 28.

    SpaceUnit

    February 12, 2022 at 2:48 pm

    @Martin:

    Yep.  By having himself portrayed as Biden’s opponent in right-wing media, Putin is going to end up as popular among republicans as TFG.

    It’s sickening, but that’s where we are as a country.

  29. 29.

    WaterGirl

    February 12, 2022 at 2:49 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Isn’t the the truth.

  30. 30.

    WaterGirl

    February 12, 2022 at 2:50 pm

    @Hunter Gathers:

    If he wants to shoot himself in the dick, why should we stop him?

    You mean, other than all the people in Ukraine who will die?

  31. 31.

    Brachiator

    February 12, 2022 at 2:51 pm

    This is one of those areas where I just cross my fingers and hope that no one, especially Putin, does anything stupid.

  32. 32.

    VOR

    February 12, 2022 at 2:51 pm

    @Martin:  Yep. I think the west has made it clear that it will not back up Article 5, so this is more erosion of NATO.

    Ukraine is not a NATO member. Article 5 of the NATO treaty does not apply to Ukraine, only NATO members. That’s not “The West” declining to enforce. The Baltics and Poland are NATO countries and I haven’t heard any serious suggestion that NATO treaty obligations to them are optional.

    This could seriously backfire on Putin if Finland and Sweden get interested in joining NATO in response to Russian aggression against Ukraine.

  33. 33.

    sab

    February 12, 2022 at 2:52 pm

    @germy: He does, but their vaccine does not actually work. That’s a problem that possibly he thinks he can solve by deflecting to war.

    Probably won’t work, but that won’t save the hundreds of thousands in his misbeguided path.

  34. 34.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 12, 2022 at 2:53 pm

    @WaterGirl: Yeah, I don’t think Putin can win, if winning means taking over Ukraine or install a pro-Russian government, but it would be best if his not winning didn’t come at the cost of thousands of lives.

  35. 35.

    germy

    February 12, 2022 at 2:53 pm

    @Baud:

    I thought we had sanctions as an option.  And aren’t our hackers just as talented as Putin’s hackers?  I think Biden can do harm without firing a single shot.

  36. 36.

    WaterGirl

    February 12, 2022 at 2:53 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I don’t think the US messaging (yes, kill it with fire) around Ukraine has been messy. It’s been very consistent.

    How has it been messy, in your opinion?

  37. 37.

    Baud

    February 12, 2022 at 2:54 pm

    @germy:

    I’m sure these same people will criticize Biden for that too.

  38. 38.

    WaterGirl

    February 12, 2022 at 2:55 pm

    @Martin:

    Yep. I think the west has made it clear that it will not back up Article 5, so this is more erosion of NATO.

    I didn’t understand what this meant when people said it yesterday, and I still don’t understand it today.

    Ukraine isn’t in NATO.  So how has the West made it clear that it will not back up Article 5?

    edit: I see that at least 5 people have asked this question before me.  I will be interested in seeing the answer.

  39. 39.

    Almost Retired

    February 12, 2022 at 2:55 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: I had lunch with a bunch of colleagues last week, and one of them was a Ukrainian-American who frequently travels back home and has strong ties to the country.  Naturally, she was peppered with questions about the looming conflict.  Absolutely everything she said (and didn’t say, in terms of “who knows”) completely paralleled your post of a couple weeks back.

    I was tempted to ask “wait…..are you “Gin & Tonic,” but that would sound weird, and I think she already has an opinion about me on that front that I didn’t want to reinforce.  Plus, I remembered you once posted something about buying a snowblower.  I don’t think someone living in Sherman Oaks would really need one.

    Thanks for all of your insight on this issue!

  40. 40.

    Mike in NC

    February 12, 2022 at 2:56 pm

    The US Government has no record of the meetings and conversations that Trump and Putin had. It’s not unreasonable to believe that Trump was sure of reelection and signaled to the Russian dictator that he wouldn’t bat an eye if Putin tried to rebuild the Russian empire.

  41. 41.

    Martin

    February 12, 2022 at 2:56 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Article 5 is the whole point of NATO. It’s a joint defense pact, and if a state like Ukraine, which NATO has said will be in NATO eventually and currently has something of a contract with NATO isn’t worthy of Article 5 defense, then basically nobody is. Policies are only as useful as your willingness to enforce them. Once they are revealed to be unenforceable, then nobody respects the policy, including the people who wrote it.

    The GOP is now where Putin wants them to be. The pro-war, anti-Communist won’t even launch missiles in defense of Article 5, let alone deploy ground troops. Trumps poorly managed plan to withdraw from Afghanistan made that clear enough. He could have worked to backfill our role so we could withdraw, but didn’t, which led to Afghanistan falling. It revealed we didn’t give a shit about Afghanistan democracy or their people.

    So while Democrats are in the WH, Putin will wage a war, the GOP in congress will go along with that war because the GOPs only interest is in domestic culture war issues, which instinctively puts them against anything the Dem administration is trying to do. And they are actively sabotaging Biden effort here as well. Expect Trump to jump in the fray as well and blame this all on Biden rather than on Putin.

    So why wouldn’t Putin continue to do this, continue to turn the GOP into an ally, continue to nurture the GOP into opposing the global social contract, and continuing to take the US off the playing field, which also means that NATO can’t count on the US, which means NATO is meaningless. The harder Dems try to stand with NATO, the harder the GOP will push against NATO because in the culture war, they need to set all agendas, therefore they MUST oppose the Dem agenda at all costs.

  42. 42.

    Baud

    February 12, 2022 at 2:58 pm

    @Martin:

    Article 5 is the whole point of NATO. It’s a joint defense pact, and if a state like Ukraine, which NATO has said will be in NATO eventually and currently has something of a contract with NATO isn’t worthy of Article 5 defense,

     

    That makes zero sense.

  43. 43.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 12, 2022 at 2:58 pm

    @Almost Retired: G&T has noted in the past that he is a Mustache-American.  Did this person have a mustache?

  44. 44.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 12, 2022 at 2:59 pm

    @Martin: ​
    Aside from the condescending first sentence, none of that makes any sense.

  45. 45.

    Baud

    February 12, 2022 at 3:00 pm

    We keep hearing about the bad progressives. Are there any progressives backing up Biden and criticizing Putin?

  46. 46.

    The Dangerman

    February 12, 2022 at 3:00 pm

    The only things I can predict are, if Putin invades, Fox will blame Biden…

    …and if he doesn’t, Fox will credit Trump. Sure, it makes no sense, but we are beyond making sense.

    My real guess is he backs down. This was all an exercise in wagging the dog.

  47. 47.

    SpaceUnit

    February 12, 2022 at 3:02 pm

    @Major Major Major Major:

    I think that Putin’s primary objectives are 1) to damage the current administration’s approval numbers by having the crisis portrayed as as something that Biden has bungled, and 2) to raise his own favorability on the right.  The next Republican president will likely be as pro-Putin as they are anti-vax.

  48. 48.

    mrmoshpotato

    February 12, 2022 at 3:02 pm

    @SpaceUnit:

    I’m pretty sure this crisis is being orchestrated for maximum effect in the US media. 

    Oh, they love jerking off to war, even the possibility of war.  Their shitbag asses should all go enlist.

  49. 49.

    germy

    February 12, 2022 at 3:02 pm

    “Are we close to a hot war?”
    – John Cole

    “I would strongly recommend, that just to be prudent, everyone fill up their vehicles, make sure you have a week to ten days worth of non-perishable food and water including enough for your pets, and if possible you top up your prescription medications if you can just in case.”
    – Adam Silverman

  50. 50.

    marcopolo

    February 12, 2022 at 3:05 pm

    @Martin: where in the fuckety fuck has NATO (anyone w/ in authority) said Ukraine will eventually be a part of it?  A huge amount of the current reason Putin is using as “the provocation” for his aggressiveness is fear of Ukraine hooking up w/ the EU/NATO.  I know of no actual political leaders (currently holding office) in NATO/EU countries who’ve said what you just wrote.  They might (or might not) welcome Ukraine’s application but they ain’t soliciting it.

    C’mon man, start making some sense.

  51. 51.

    SpaceUnit

    February 12, 2022 at 3:06 pm

    @mrmoshpotato:

    Many in the media are already engaged, some as willing accomplices and others as unwitting fools.

  52. 52.

    Martin

    February 12, 2022 at 3:07 pm

    @WaterGirl: The head of NATO has said that Ukraine *will* be in NATO. They aren’t there now, but in almost every way NATO has signaled that Ukraine is deserving of NATO membership. Ukraine and NATO have done joint training. Yes, it’s not formally part of NATO, but NATO can’t just say ‘well, they didn’t sign the paperwork yet, so fuck ’em’. No, they’ve already signaled some degree of commitment to Ukraine, because the one way that Ukraine never becomes a NATO member is if Russia invades and annexes them.

    The reality is that while there are NATO members that would get a full military defense under section 5, it’s not all NATO members. The US lacks the appetite for it, the GOP are increasingly pro-Putin and anti-NATO, and so long as Putin wages these wars under Democratic presidents, that will only grow.

  53. 53.

    marcopolo

    February 12, 2022 at 3:09 pm

    @SpaceUnit: I think Putin has a lot bigger problems w/ unhappy folks in Russia—and that THIS is what he is trying to deal w/ (and trying to keep Ukraine in the Russian sphere of influence as well.  Anything that happens here in the US is just slop over (though probably assisted by Russian acts) from that.

  54. 54.

    VOR

    February 12, 2022 at 3:13 pm

    @Martin: So NATO ought to invoke Article 5 to defend a country that is not a NATO member and hasn’t applied to be a NATO member just because it is possible at some unknown future date the country could join NATO?

    By that logic NATO could potentially intervene in practically any conflict in the world.

  55. 55.

    Almost Retired

    February 12, 2022 at 3:13 pm

    @Martin:  I’m not getting a “let’s admit Ukraine” vibe within NATO from anything I’ve read.  Are you getting a different message from another source?  My impression is that most of the NATO countries have sort of a “Mourir pour Dantzig?” attitude towards Ukraine.

  56. 56.

    marcopolo

    February 12, 2022 at 3:13 pm

    @Martin: First, please give me the cite on that comment by the head of NATO—I’m willing to find out I’m wrong.

    Second, what’s the point of being a NATO member (and having to go thru the application & vetting princess and signing the treaty) if NATO will just step forward & defend anyone?

    Third, who are these NATO members that NATO would not defend?  I sure bet they’d like to know.  Everything I’ve read says NATO is ready to defend the Baltic states & Poland from Russian aggression.

  57. 57.

    SpaceUnit

    February 12, 2022 at 3:17 pm

    @marcopolo:

    Respectfully, I disagree.  I don’t think Putin is particularly concerned with his popularity in Russia.  He has a very firm grip on power.

    Also, he could have invaded the Ukraine at any time during the TFG’s administration and Trump would have signaled his approval.  It would be over and done.

  58. 58.

    Another Scott

    February 12, 2022 at 3:18 pm

    @Martin:  Made me look.

    NATO.int (from the December 2021 joint press conference):

    Steven Erlanger (New York Times):
    [inaudible] to everyone, especially translators. I have a question for the two men, President Zelenskyy first. Ukraine was promised membership in NATO. Ukraine has provided troops to NATO missions in Afghanistan and in Iraq. Mr. Stoltenberg said in Riga and repeated again today that while Ukraine is not a part of the Alliance, it is a highly valued partner. So I want ask President Zelenskyy what does NATO owe such a highly valued partner. And is NATO’s credibility at stake in this affair? And I would ask Secretary General Stoltenberg to answer the same question, but President Zelenskyy, Спасибо, thank you.

    Jens Stoltenberg (NATO Secretary General):
    NATO has an open door policy. This is enshrined in the NATO’s funding treaty, Article 10 of the Washington Treaty stating clearly that NATO can invite other European countries to join the Alliance. And I was actually present at the NATO Summit in Bucharest in 2008, when all Allies agreed that Ukraine will become a member of NATO. And we stand by that decision and the decisions taken after to the Bucharest Summit on the issue of Ukraine’s possibility to become a NATO member.
    The message today to Russia is that it is for Ukraine as a sovereign nation to decide its own path. And for the 30 NATO Allies to decide when Ukraine is ready to become a member.
    What is important now is that we focus on reforms for Ukraine to meet NATO standards. And I welcome the strong commitment by President Zelenskyy on reforms. And I also know that for instance, when Ukrainian forces and NATO forces have operated together in Afghanistan or Iraq or elsewhere, – that’s important in our efforts to fight international terrorism-, but it’s also a way to increase and strengthen interoperability of NATO and Ukrainian forces.
    Let me also highlight that NATO has proven over the last years that our ‘open door policy’ is not only something we support in words, but also in deeds, partly by inviting two new countries, Montenegro and North Macedonia to become members. So we have enlarged the Alliance over the last few years with two new members. Despite of protests from Russia. And also we are supporting Ukraine’s efforts to come closer to NATO membership. We help with reforms, fighting corruption, capacity building, modernising Ukraine’s security and defence institutions. And NATO and NATO Allies also provide training, advising. We have joint exercises and NATO Allies also provide equipment. So we support Ukraine. We are strengthening Ukraine’s defence and armed forces. This is practical cooperation and practical support provided by NATO Allies and NATO to Ukraine. So we stand in solidarity with Ukraine. We continue to support their efforts to become a NATO member.
    And we also send a very clear message that we can, we are ready to talk to Russia. We actually believe in dialogue. We believe that dialogue is important especially when times are difficult as they are now. And our invitation to Moscow to meet in the NATO-Russia Council stands, and we are ready to sit down.
    But we will never compromise on the right of every sovereign nation, as Ukraine, to choose his own path and of the principle that it is for Ukraine and the 30 Allies to decide when Ukraine is ready to join the Alliance.

    The last sentence is probably one of the most important. Ukraine is not joining NATO for a very long time, and only with the consent of the existing members. There’s a huge difference between saying any European country can join NATO and implementing all of the steps necessary for membership.

    VVP will use any real or fabricated excuse as a pretext to get what he wants.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  59. 59.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 12, 2022 at 3:19 pm

    @Martin: Actual membership means something.  Ukraine, at the moment, is a nonaligned but friendly nation.  Article 5 does not apply.  Suggesting that Ukraine is some kind of quasi-member holds no water.  Further, although Nato won’t go to war over this, it is making it clear that violating Ukrainian sovereignty with be met with strong nonmilitary consequences.  So, no, you have the wrong end of the stick.

  60. 60.

    Doug R

    February 12, 2022 at 3:20 pm

    @germy: The overall vaccination rate for Russia was 49% and that was for the craptacular Sputnik.

  61. 61.

    zhena gogolia

    February 12, 2022 at 3:22 pm

    @Doug R: I’m praying it’s not craptacular. It’s what my best friend has.

  62. 62.

    Martin

    February 12, 2022 at 3:24 pm

    @marcopolo: NATO leadership has already promised both Ukraine and Georgia a membership action plan. They are promised invitation to NATO, with each nation able to refuse the invitation. Based on statements by the current head of Ukraine and polling on support for a referendum to join, both parties are treating this as a fait accompli. Now, it’s obviously not, but it aspires to be.

  63. 63.

    Major Major Major Major

    February 12, 2022 at 3:26 pm

    @SpaceUnit: I saw a poll yesterday that while republicans obviously disapprove of Biden’s handling of the situation, they’re also most likely to say it’s because he’s being too friendly to Russia.

  64. 64.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 12, 2022 at 3:28 pm

    @Martin: NATO leadership has already promised both Ukraine and Georgia a membership action plan.

    Membership action plans aren’t promises.  And they don’t even have one yet.

  65. 65.

    Baud

    February 12, 2022 at 3:29 pm

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Republicans have been hitting this from both sides.  Completely inconsistent, but it’s an attack on Biden so it doesn’t need to be consistent.

  66. 66.

    SpaceUnit

    February 12, 2022 at 3:29 pm

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Tucker Carlson is working on it.

  67. 67.

    Doug R

    February 12, 2022 at 3:30 pm

    @zhena gogolia: It’s an adenovirus vaccine like Astra Zeneca, which I had for my first dose. Safe enough for most people.

    In the old days that would have been enough, but the mRNA vaccines like Moderna (which were my 2nd and 3rd doses) and Pfizer (my wife and daughter 3x) are just that little bit more effective.

    Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine shows effectiveness against Omicron variant

    As against other available vaccines, Sputnik V showed a three to seven times decline in virus neutralising activity against Omicron.

    Data showed that Sputnik V provided 11.8 times decline in VNA versus 41 and 49-84 times reduction for Covid-19 vaccines of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, respectively.

  68. 68.

    marcopolo

    February 12, 2022 at 3:31 pm

    @Another Scott: thanks for finding this. I agree that it’ll be a bit, if ever, before Ukraine joins NATO but this was a little more “in your face Russia” statement than I had though anyone in authority had made.

    Heh, and it all stems from a 2008 meeting—really puts the events of the last decade plus in Ukraine into more perspective.

  69. 69.

    Baud

    February 12, 2022 at 3:32 pm

    @marcopolo:

    Another George W. Bush Easter egg?

  70. 70.

    HinTN

    February 12, 2022 at 3:38 pm

    @Baud: I usually really respect what Martin says but in this case you are correct. The logic is flawed although the sentiment (we protect fledgling democracies) is not.

  71. 71.

    Another Scott

    February 12, 2022 at 3:38 pm

    @marcopolo: Agreed that Stolenberg seems a little loose with his language.

    NATO – April 2008:

    […]

    NATO welcomes Georgia’s and Ukraine’s aspirations for membership

    At the Bucharest Summit, NATO Allies welcomed Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership and agreed that these countries will become members of NATO.

    They also agreed that both nations have made valuable contributions to Alliance operations and welcomed democratic reforms in Ukraine and Georgia.

    The Membership Action Plan (MAP) is the next step for the two countries on their direct way to membership.

    Allies made clear that they support Georgia’s and Ukraine’s applications for MAP. Allies also said NATO will now begin a period of intensive engagement with both countries at high political level to address the questions still outstanding regarding their MAP applications. NATO Foreign Ministers were asked to make a first assessment of progress at their December 2008 meeting.

    […]

    Aspirations is probably doing a lot of heavy lifting there.

    Nearly 14 years have passed since that meeting. A lot has happened in Ukraine in the meantime. There’s no indication that the process is going to speed up any time soon. It’s a very slow process when members want it to be.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  72. 72.

    mrmoshpotato

    February 12, 2022 at 3:39 pm

    @SpaceUnit:

    The next Republican president will likely be as pro-Putin as they are anti-vax. 

    But will the next Kremlin-humping, fascist shitstain also paint his disgusting face orange?

  73. 73.

    marcopolo

    February 12, 2022 at 3:43 pm

    @Baud: Dunno about that, but it does give more context for Putin’s paranoia vs a vs the West.  Of course, all he’d have to do to solve his problems would be to have Russia apply to join NATO—I mean I’m sure they’d have no problems with the vetting process being a model of democratic governance & a country where corruption is so hard to find… ha ha ha I made myself laugh :)

  74. 74.

    WaterGirl

    February 12, 2022 at 3:45 pm

    @Martin: It’s my understanding is that while NATO is good with Ukraine beginning the process, it will take about 20 years before Ukraine would meet all the criterion for joining NATO, not the least of which is that you have to be on good terms with your neighboring countries.

    I have a huge amount of respect for your writing on most subjects, but on this one I don’t see how we have NATO Article 5 obligations  when Ukraine won’t be a member of NATO until about 20 years from now.

  75. 75.

    zhena gogolia

    February 12, 2022 at 3:46 pm

    @WaterGirl: What happened to Chip?

  76. 76.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 12, 2022 at 3:46 pm

    @Baud: the ways he and his administration led to the situations we’re in now is not discussed nearly enough.

    I think I’ll write to MSNBC and offer my services as a talking head.

  77. 77.

    SpaceUnit

    February 12, 2022 at 3:49 pm

    @mrmoshpotato:

    Can’t say.  But it will probably mean the end of NATO.

  78. 78.

    Alce _e_ardillo

    February 12, 2022 at 3:54 pm

    @Baud: That would depend on how you define “progressive.” Twits such as Michael Tracey, or  Glenn Greenwald are not remotely progressive in my book.  There is a lot of noise coming from the DSA left, but I am not sure who stands where.

  79. 79.

    Baud

    February 12, 2022 at 3:56 pm

    @Alce _e_ardillo:

    Use any definition you want.  I’d like to think at least some of them are supporting U.S. policy here.

  80. 80.

    WaterGirl

    February 12, 2022 at 3:57 pm

    @zhena gogolia: i have no idea because no one bothered to communicate with me about it.

    I am going to guess that either John or Adam moved the Artist post back half an hour by 90 minutes – after Adam put his post up just 7 minutes before Chip’s post was scheduled to go up.

    Chip’s post has been in the queue for a week – it’s not like it’s not visible right there in the list of posts.  This is the second time this exact thing has happened with an Adam post and an Artists post.

    Personally, I think it’s rude to move someone else’s guest post back when it has been previously scheduled.  Assuming I had any artistic talent at all, which I don’t, if I had an Artists post scheduled i would have told everyone I know – friends, family, everyone – to look for the post at the scheduled time. And now it’s not there.

    It’s an embarrassment to everyone involved. ?‍♀️

  81. 81.

    Miss Bianca

    February 12, 2022 at 4:00 pm

    @Ella in New Mexico:

    Omicron causes the worst GI illness I’ve seen since Norovirus

    This is another thing that makes me wonder whether I’ve gotten a (very mild) case of it myself, since I’ve been having a couple days of headaches and some GI issues. Thing is, tho, that they haven’t been consecutive days – it’s been like one day a week for the past three weeks.

    ETA: Always on the weekend, too. >: (

  82. 82.

    Baud

    February 12, 2022 at 4:02 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    It’s an embarrassment to everyone involved

     
    Nominated.

  83. 83.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 12, 2022 at 4:03 pm

    @Miss Bianca: Maybe cut down on the chili and mead nights?

  84. 84.

    Alce _e_ardillo

    February 12, 2022 at 4:05 pm

    @SpaceUnit: I think Putin’s grip is shakier than you suppose. While he does have the support of the security apparatus  and the military (I think), should an invasion go seriously wrong, or the oligarchs start to feel real pain, that could change.  I believe he misjudged Biden, and thought he could bluster his way to a win.

  85. 85.

    zhena gogolia

    February 12, 2022 at 4:06 pm

    @WaterGirl: I look forward to it reappearing, as I was going to show it to my husband.

  86. 86.

    Alce _e_ardillo

    February 12, 2022 at 4:07 pm

    @Baud: So would I.

  87. 87.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 12, 2022 at 4:09 pm

    @Alce _e_ardillo: People interpret leaving A-stan as a sign of weakness and a sign of the US turning inward.  I think, on the contrary, it was a sign of strength and freed the US to act effectively in other parts of the world.

  88. 88.

    Miss Bianca

    February 12, 2022 at 4:11 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Erm…in this household it’s more likely to be wasabi and mead. But, point to consider, anyway.//

  89. 89.

    Chris Johnson

    February 12, 2022 at 4:36 pm

    @Baud:
    Yeah. The youtuber Vaush. He’s getting absolutely demolished by coordinated attacks of what he rightly calls ‘RT Leftists’, but happily he is not that worried by propaganda, only by the prospect that the propaganda blankets all discourse and that nobody’s gonna hear him out.

  90. 90.

    zhena gogolia

    February 12, 2022 at 4:45 pm

    @WaterGirl: That’s too bad. I was really interested in his work.

  91. 91.

    Baud

    February 12, 2022 at 5:04 pm

    @Chris Johnson:

    I don’t do YouTube in that way, so I never heard of him. But good on him.

  92. 92.

    Urza

    February 12, 2022 at 5:08 pm

    @germy: Russia does have a troop vaccine mandate since 2020.  I looked it up when I read your comment.

  93. 93.

    Toadrick Elfheart

    February 12, 2022 at 5:09 pm

    @Martin: Yes, since Ukraine is not part of NATO, I fail to see how Article 5 has any relevance.

  94. 94.

    Urza

    February 12, 2022 at 5:21 pm

    @germy: I take back my last comment, apparently Putin changed his mind after vaccines became available.  No mandate.

  95. 95.

    James E Powell

    February 12, 2022 at 6:17 pm

    @Major Major Major Major:

    What the polls of voters who identify as Republicans tell us is that Republican voters disapprove of what Biden is doing without regard to whether they know what Biden is doing.

  96. 96.

    jonas

    February 12, 2022 at 6:52 pm

    @Unabogie:  They hate centrist Democrats more than they love America.

  97. 97.

    VOR

    February 12, 2022 at 8:06 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: People interpret leaving A-stan as a sign of weakness and a sign of the US turning inward. I think, on the contrary, it was a sign of strength and freed the US to act effectively in other parts of the world.

    It was time, past time. Biden pulled the band-aid off. Sure, we could have continued to prop up the Kabul government but the fact it fell so rapidly shows it was not going to survive. And now the US (and allies) no longer have that commitment to drain resources.

  98. 98.

    Ruckus

    February 12, 2022 at 8:13 pm

    What with the rather lame response to vaccination that Russia has, even in comparison to the US, and the death rate, which is higher than the US, and no military vaccination mandate, and with how much the citizens respect their government, I’d imagine that vlad’s forces are suffering a lot more than ours so his strength is very likely not all it’s cracked up to be. That doesn’t mean vlad isn’t considering the worst options but other than talking, does he really have enough to work with?

  99. 99.

    sab

    February 13, 2022 at 1:24 am

    @Ruckus: Does Putin realize that?

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