The cycle pic.twitter.com/K1fHp8gDIk
— Dr. Neurofourier (@Neurofourier) February 13, 2022
Scientists are preparing for the next phase of learning to live with Covid. As the Omicron wave subsides, politicians & health officials are telling us that it’s time to start “living with the virus.” But what does that mean? And how do we do that? https://t.co/wI5V8lWylm
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) February 12, 2022
… Living with the virus “is an acknowledgment that eradication of SARS-CoV-2, like what we did with smallpox, is not feasible,” said Maria Sundaram, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Marshfield Clinic Research Institute.
Instead, we’ll need to rely on an arsenal of tools — including vaccines, paid sick leave and masks — to coexist with the virus while reducing our own risk and protecting others.
Eventually, the thinking goes, we’ll get to a point where the coronavirus is incorporated into other common viruses we are used to dealing with all the time, said Pia MacDonald, an infectious disease epidemiologist at RTI International, a nonprofit research institute. “We should each reflect on how we live with other viruses that routinely circulate, such as influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, noroviruses and others.”
That’s going to require a huge mental shift and acceptance of “a new element of manageable risk in our lives,” said Eduardo Franco, the director of the Division of Cancer Epidemiology at McGill University. “It means reacquiring behaviors, attitudes and social norms,” that have always been part of who we are.
In practice, this readjustment will vary widely for different people depending on our personal health circumstances and the needs of those closest to us…
For many Americans, however, any big adjustments are still on hold until young children can get vaccinated…
Thread from a longtime antiviral researcher: https://t.co/eeF2Y2Hj5H
— Derek Lowe (@Dereklowe) February 12, 2022
Rock, meet hard place:
I thought my reply might be of general interest, because I have been in the room when BMS decided what doses to try in Clinical Trials of Antiviral drugs.
They were afraid if ANY side effects showed up parents wouldn’t get their kids vaccinated, so they went too low on the dose. And they actually had reason to fear parental overreaction to side effects: look how few teens in the US are vaccinated!
The decision of what dose to use is among the most difficult in all of drug development, especially in a political climate where any side effects get exaggerated by the news media.
Pfizer began its earliest human adult vaccine trials with three doses. When they quietly dropped the highest of those three doses, people like me knew their vaccine probably worked, because at such an early stage they would not have dropped their highest dose unless they were confident they would not need it. A few weeks later they released the first excellent results.
But I think Pfizer was shocked by the intensity of anti-vaccine sentiment, thus leading to their blunder with the pediatric dose.
And it's a very serious problem.
I think officials failed to distinguish what was known from what was unknown. Also slow to incorporate new knowledge.
I've tried hard to make such distinctions.
— Matthew (@MatthewDavidH) February 13, 2022
In short: they lowballed the kids’ vax dose, then extended the trials, and refuse to vary from age de-escalation, all for fear of criticism from antivaxers who are going to attack vaccines anyway. They let antivaxers block access for everyone.
— Lex Luthor (@Lexisaurus) February 12, 2022
This is why we need layers of public health protections, and not just a vaccine-only pandemic response.
No one measure is perfect and accessible to all.
We can save the most lives and prevent the most harm by using multiple measures together.
— Dr. Lucky Tran (@luckytran) February 11, 2022
Covid deaths have surged in many parts of the United States over the past 2 weeks, even as #omicron has begun to ebb https://t.co/CexOlT6945 pic.twitter.com/HiHxhjU9Vx
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) February 12, 2022
The (non technical) definition of endemic that is currently going around is basically that it is the amount of disease from which people are willing to avert their eyes
— Bill Hanage (@BillHanage) February 10, 2022
Republicans are telling Politico that COVID-19 is “a godsend.”
The pandemic that has killed 900,000 Americans.
As many GOP leaders downplay vaccines & boosters, ignore science, demonize experts, and oppose commonsense measures to keep people safe and help us get back to normal. pic.twitter.com/bxQIVXMoAH
— Ian Sams (@IanSams) February 11, 2022
=======
Revealing the hidden value of vaccines
Vaccines are one of the most successful public health measures ever designed. Understanding their full value could steer investment in the right direction. https://t.co/X3SGrzttO6— Global Health Observ (@GlobalPHObserv) February 11, 2022
Beijing 2022 reports 3 new COVID cases among Games-related personnel on Feb 12 https://t.co/OcaMlEs03G pic.twitter.com/aVmMJ6EgO1
— Reuters (@Reuters) February 13, 2022
Olympic athletes who tested positive for COVID-19 at #Beijing2022 feel their quarantine conditions are making a bad situation much worse.
They've complained about inedible meals, poor hygienic conditions and a lack of access to training equipment.https://t.co/IgsN4BWC30
— The Associated Press (@AP) February 12, 2022
Hong Kong to report record 3,000 COVID cases on Sunday -TVB https://t.co/LdlGZrJ2pf pic.twitter.com/ysQbBWWgge
— Reuters (@Reuters) February 13, 2022
Hong Kong food supplies may be disrupted as COVID hits goods drivers https://t.co/hfcBXeO0al pic.twitter.com/WqeRZ4EzzE
— Reuters (@Reuters) February 13, 2022
New Zealand plays Barry Manilow to repel parliament protesters https://t.co/3cBPeWT4qV
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) February 12, 2022
Russia is in the midst of a huge #Omicron-driven surge even as it continues a massive military buildup around Ukraine. The domestic challenge isn't going away. On Friday, the country reported a daily record of 200k new coronavirus cases https://t.co/0vyA0ccAi6 pic.twitter.com/bpgSmoWXWN
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) February 12, 2022
Venice's 'Carnival of hope' kicks off as COVID worries ease https://t.co/oB2Z4yqGX6 pic.twitter.com/MjmdIHVZyE
— Reuters (@Reuters) February 12, 2022
Paris police fire tear gas at Covid rule protesters https://t.co/7rypqmly8q
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) February 13, 2022
Remember when the world was shocked at Trump's dangerous demands to stop testing people so the Covid numbers would go down and he would look like a more successful leader and now it's normal UK government policy.
— HappyToast ? (@IamHappyToast) February 10, 2022
======
Exercise may enhance the effects of a Covid or flu shot. A 90-minute walk, jog or bike ride after getting vaccinated may boost your body’s immune response https://t.co/pZU4OjHTHo
— delthia ricks ?? (@DelthiaRicks) February 11, 2022
Can you get long COVID after an infection with omicron? It’s too early to know for sure, but many doctors believe it’s possible to have long-term effects from the omicron variant of the virus. https://t.co/NoxosoywU0
— The Associated Press (@AP) February 9, 2022
The FDA has given emergency authorization to a new monoclonal antibody drug that in the lab is a potent neutralizer of #OmicronVariant. The mAb from Eli Lilly emerges amid the shelving of others, which have failed against the highly contagious variant https://t.co/zVt84rJF03
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) February 12, 2022
Here's a look at SARSCoV2's family tree. It's full of surprises. As it turns out, there were 2 unexpected relatives — omicron's highly contagious siblings BA.1 & BA.2. And BA.2 may be even more transmissible than its sister https://t.co/uMracIrTF6
— delthia ricks ?? (@DelthiaRicks) February 12, 2022
2 new studies underscore the dangers of pregnancy complications for unvaccinated women with Covid. 1 study in the Archives of Pathology & Lab Medicine suggests SARS2 can destroy the placenta. The other in JAMA found a 40% increased risk of complications https://t.co/YD7AQXtz21 pic.twitter.com/hZPuhrdYtj
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) February 13, 2022
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Opinion | Masking myopia
Democratic governors are lifting indoor mask mandates.https://t.co/t66SDUmdM9 pic.twitter.com/gXal5ZlGCw
— Ann Telnaes (@AnnTelnaes) February 12, 2022
“People are tired," said Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock. There's a shifting narrative on COVID-19 restrictions across the U.S. among Democratic officials and candidates. They're increasingly supportive of easing mandates as the midterm elections approach. https://t.co/XauyTKBvBY
— The Associated Press (@AP) February 12, 2022
Rock, hard place:
… While the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention continues to recommend indoor masking in more than 99% of the country, even Democratic states from New York to California began easing mandates for the public, and New Jersey announced plans to roll back its face-covering requirement in schools.
“Some people may call what’s happening now the ‘new normal,’” Biden said last month, acknowledging the frustrations. “I call it a job not yet finished.”
Yet Biden, even some members of his own party contend, isn’t moving swiftly enough to finish the job. Governors in both parties have appealed to the federal government for new, clearer guidelines as COVID-19 becomes endemic and less of a public health emergency.
Administration officials for the first time this past week allowed that they have been working on new guidelines for the “next phase” of the pandemic response, but those are still weeks away…
Democratic Governors Association spokesman David Turner said the party’s shifting approach has been motivated by the evolving virus and not politics. But he said that while Democratic governors have tried to mitigate the effects of the pandemic, many of their Republican colleagues have made things worse by deliberately spreading misinformation about it and the coronavirus vaccine.
“I think Democratic governors are going to have a good story to tell about following science and facts and listening to public health experts to keep people safe from the pandemic,” Turner said about the November elections. “And there’s going to be a story to tell about Republicans actively working to prolong it.”
Allies of the administration have argued that Biden should at least lay out a roadmap for moving back toward normalcy while waiting for the scientists to conclude their work, in a nod to the American people’s frustrations.
Biden on Thursday called the efforts by members of his own party to ease restrictions “probably premature,” though he acknowledged it was a tough call for leaders…
It’s driving me nuts how the talking point has become that covid is safe for everybody except for the people it kills, which apart from the blatant question-begging, is false. https://t.co/Ihzo0Gci6F
— Bájenle el deo a Colón ???? (@midnucas) February 12, 2022
Many Americans are seeking religious exemptions in order to circumvent COVID-19 vaccine mandates — but they're getting little encouragement from major religious denominations and prominent faith leaders. https://t.co/0z3hgmWWN1
— The Associated Press (@AP) February 12, 2022
I'm not asking people to stay on hard lockdown, I'm asking people to do totally normal consideration for others things like "wear a mask indoors if transmission levels are high" and "get tested and stay home if symptomatic".
If all of us do these things, I can get own groceries.
— Liz Fong-Jones (方禮真) (@lizthegrey) February 10, 2022
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
149 new cases as of 2/12/22.
Still no test kits in the mail, although I saw on the news last night that the city was handing them out with masks at a drive through event.
mrmoshpotato
They should just blast the Liberty Mutual jingle repeatedly. Yes, it’s just saying “Liberty” over and over again, but it’ll test how much these plague rats like the liberty to be plague rats.
Wait. Are they trying to start a dance party? Heeeeey Macarena! Aight!
lowtechcyclist
@NeenerNeener:
I finally got mine yesterday.
PeakVT
Republicans are monsters. Or their god is a shit. Take your pick.
lowtechcyclist
@mrmoshpotato:
That’s brilliant!!
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reports 21,072 new Covid-19 cases today in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 3,040,235 cases. It also reports 15 deaths as of midnight, for an adjusted cumulative total of 32,114 deaths – 1.06% of the cumulative reported total, 1.11% of resolved cases.
Based on cases reported yesterday, Malaysia’s nationwide Rt is at 1.49.
98 confirmed cases are in ICU, 47 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 5,724 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 2,852,437 patients recovered – 93.8% of the cumulative reported total.
10 new clusters were reported today, for a cumulative total of 6,596 clusters. 421 clusters are currently active; 6,175 clusters are now inactive.
21,007 new cases today are local infections. 65 new cases today are imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 142,800 doses of vaccine on 12th February: 3,851 first doses, 727 second doses, and 103,222 booster doses. As of midnight, the cumulative total is 64,921,735 doses administered: 26,221,434 first doses, 25,731,438 second doses, and 13,174,229 booster doses. 80.3% of the population have received their first dose, 78.8% their second dose, and 40.3% their booster dose.
lowtechcyclist
@PeakVT:
Yeah, it’s definitely one of those “how to tell everyone you’re a party of amoral sociopaths without saying you’re a party of amoral sociopaths” sorts of things.
Cermet
Going to be a downer today after reading how this simple to deal with virus becomes so impossible to deal with. So much for the saying that “The Arc of the Moral Universe … tends toward justice”. Covid-19 is demonstrating that people are too self centered to care about anyone else when push comes to shove.
Fact is, as human’s begin to experience what real AGW is and will do to their environment the fight for resources will cause far worse then what this ‘minor’ illness has shown us to be. We will continue to experience and ‘look the other way’ as the erosion of human rights increases, the value of human life becomes secondary to our own needs, and the previous improvement of the world’s poor will reverse – a great deal.
The ride was nice but as the saying does, “Why can’t we have nice things?” – simple – basic human self interest and greed (not really the same thing, by the way.)
mrmoshpotato
@PeakVT:
Don’t make me choose! ☹️
Baud
@mrmoshpotato:
Right. Republicans created their god in their own image.
OzarkHillbilly
@PeakVT: Their God is Mammon.
OzarkHillbilly
@NeenerNeener: @lowtechcyclist:
Finally getting ours on Monday.
New Deal democrat
Both deaths and cases declined slightly yesterday in the US: deaths to 2300 and cases to 180,000. This means cases are down almost 80% from peak.
But to put this in context, cases would have to be down about 95% from their Omicron peak to be where they were in autumn 2020; 97.5% down to be at their levels of early summer 2020; and 98.5% down to be at their lows last June.
Because it is the weekend, many States did not report. But the Northeast is now down over 90% from peak, and deaths there are down about 40% from peak, at roughly 360. In summer 2020 they were as low as 40; last summer they got down below 20.
The best State right now is MD, at 15 cases per 10,000 per day. Last June, the *worst* State was WY, at 11 cases per day.
It just goes to show how, between Delta and Omicron, the US has normalized an astonishing level of the consequences of public health failure.
On a slightly different take, on Friday Bill McBride posted a chart of deaths in 2019, 2020, and 2021 by age cohort:
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/02/lawler-deaths-by-age.html
The big surprise was that the cohort with the biggest increase in the rate of deaths was ages 35-44, up 48.5%. The two next highest were 25-34 and 45-54. It shows just how much the complacency about vaccination has hit those age groups.
In 2020, before vaccinations, deaths for those over 85 jumped almost 33%. They were only up 6.8% in 2021 vs. 2019. It may be ghoulish to say, but it likely that those most vulnerable to COVID were already struck down in 2020, and so weren’t around in 2021.
One final thing: I saw yesterday that someone in the thread paid me a compliment. Thank you!
Nicole
@NeenerNeener: I’m sorry you’re still waiting on your test kits. I ordered the first day and mine finally arrived this past Friday. On Tuesday, because it seemed like everyone I knew had received theirs and I hadn’t I went back into the system to try to order again (since I knew there had been some issues the first few days with people in apartment buildings ordering) but nope, the gov’t had the record of my initial order. So your tests are coming; it’s just going to take as long as it takes, I guess.
MagdaInBlack
@lowtechcyclist: And evil. I like it!
Matt McIrvin
By complete happenstance, I think I did that after my second shot…
Matt McIrvin
The thing that’s affecting my mental/physical health the worst right now is that I can’t get distilled water for my CPAP. Starting to look at websites about how to distill your own water on the stove…
NorthLeft12
Yes, the view that we have had/done enough of COVID precautions and it is time to move on is gaining some steam in Canada. Their response to questions regarding how to safely transition to no precautions/mandates and what to do about the vulnerable usual gets met with;
1. Argle bargle “my freedom”.
2. Blank stare…….followed by “not my problem”.
3. “Well, the vulnerable and risk averse have the freedom to isolate themselves until they feel it is safe to rejoin society.”
All of the above is followed by the usual nonsense about learning to live with COVID and the horrific mental toll people have been forced to endure for two years*.
I’ll say this one more time, my experiences with these folks is that they have not followed any of the public health guidelines very often, are against vaccinations in general, even if they are reluctantly vaccinated, and are the people most likely to continue to work or socialize if they have mild symptoms of any contagious disease.
My daughter in England, is virtually the only teacher who continues to wear a mask. Strangely, she has not yet contracted COVID even though most of her fellow teachers have, not to mention large swaths of her high school students. But she acknowledges that it is not easy and draws questions from her peers and students.
lowtechcyclist
It’s useless to ask the RWNJs anything, of course. But I’d like to ask the centrist “get back to normal” crowd just why the new normal can’t be same as the old normal, only with masks.
Why do they get so bent out of shape over masking up? That’s what I can’t figure out.
Suzanne
@Cermet:
Agreed. There are definitely some things that have improved in my lifetime, but on the whole, America is on the downslope. And the pandemic has demonstrated to me that meaningful change is not really feasible.
Erin
As someone who is hard of hearing, reading lips is vital for me to be able to interact in society. The combination of what I am able to hear, plus their lips, is crucial for me to communicate. Masks have made it almost impossible to talk to people in public.
I am NOT arguing that we should drop all mask mandates, or that people shouldn’t mask indoors. But I do want to point out that masks are not 100% harmless either. For some people, they have a serious impact on how we live our lives. Again, NOT trying to compare my travails to those of the immunocompromised. But let’s not act like it’s a perfectly easy solution for everyone either.
Ohio Mom
My pair of test kits came yesterday. They are on display on the cookbook shelf in the kitchen.
Just in time for the local mini-surge I’m expecting from all the super bowl parties around here. Cincinnati is hyped.
YY_Sima Qian
On 2/12 China reported 28 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Guangdong Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case. As the province does not breakdown recoveries between domestic & imported cases, I cannot track the count of active cases in parts of the province.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 13 new domestic confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic). There currently are 263 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Shaoyang in Hunan Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city, part of the transmission chain spreading from Shenzhen in Guangdong.
Tianjin Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed case (mild), at Xiqing District, a person returning from Huludao in Liaoning, & has been under home quarantine since return to Tianjin. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 31 active domestic confirmed cases (all presumed Omicron). 1 residential building remains at High Risk. 1 Medium Risk residential building has been re-designated to Low Risk. 4 residential buildings remain at Medium Risk.
Beijing Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. As Beijing does not separate recoveries between imported & domestic cases, I cannot track the number of active cases on the city. 1 community, 1 village & 1 residential building remain at Medium Risk.
Liaoning Province reported 11 new domestic confirmed cases. There currently are 45 active domestic confirmed & 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Shandong Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Jinan) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Liaocheng) cases in the province, all part of the transmission chain from the cold storage warehouses outbreak at Fengtai District in Beijing.
At Datong in Shanxi Province there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases in the city.
At Hebei Province 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 15 active domestic confirmed cases (3 at Xiong’an, 5 at Hengshui, 6 at Langfang & 1 at Baoding) in the province, all part of the transmission chain from the cold storage warehouses outbreak in Fengtai District in Beijing. 1 village at Hengshui remains at Medium Risk.
At Yili Prefecture in Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region 1 domestic confirmed case recovered & 2 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed (2 at 4th Div. of XPCC & 1 at Horgos) & 3 active domestic asymptomatic (2 at 4th Div. of XPCC & 1 at Horgos) cases at the border crossing. 2 residential compounds & 1 residential building were re-designated to Low Risk. 2 residential compounds remain at Medium Risk.
Heilongjiang Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 8 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 21 active domestic confirmed (all at Mudanjiang) & 41 active domestic asymptomatic (10 at Heihe, 27 at Mudanjiang & 4 at Qiqihar) cases in the province. 5 residential buildings at Heihe are currently at Medium Risk. 3 residential compounds, 8 residential buildings, 3 residential building units, 4 office buildings & a produce market at Mudanjiang remain at Medium Risk.
At Shanghai Municipality 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
Zhejiang Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. As the province does not regularly publish recoveries, I can no longer trace the count of active cases on there. All areas in Hangzhou are now at Low Risk.
At Huanggang in Hubei Province there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case in the city, part of the transmission chain from Hangzhou in Zhejiang.
At Shangrao in Jiangxi Province the domestic asymptomatic case was a released from isolation.
At Suzhou in Jiangsu Province there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case in the city, an import logistics worker.
At Tongren in Guizhou Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case in the city, part of the transmission chain spreading from Huludao in Liaoning.
At Henan Province 36 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 143 active domestic confirmed cases in the province.
Yunnan Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Malipo County in Wenshan Prefecture, a person voluntarily tested & 2 traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. There currently are 10 active domestic confirmed (3 at Kunming, 5 at Sipsongpanna Prefecture & 2 at Wenshan Prefecture) & 7 active domestic asymptomatic (6 at Sipsongpanna Prefecture & 1 at Wenshan Prefecture) cases remaining. 1 zone at Mengla County in Sipsongpanna Prefecture remains at Medium Risk.
Imported Cases
On 2/12, China reported 39 new imported confirmed cases (5 previously asymptomatic), 33 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in China, 106 confirmed cases recovered (4 imported), 47 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (36 imported) & 6 were reclassified as confirmed cases (5 imported), & 4,931 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 1,397 active confirmed cases in the country (672 imported), 5 in serious condition (1 imported), 804 active asymptomatic cases (733 imported), 1 suspect case (imported). 34,056 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 2/12, 3,042.376M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 5.669M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 2/13, Hong Kong reported 1,437 new positive cases, 2 imported & 1,435 domestic. There are another > 3,000 cases who are preliminarily positive, awaiting confirmation.
On 2/13, Taiwan reported 52 new positive cases, 40 imported & 12 domestic.
Anyway
Received test kits in the mail yesterday. TBH I’m really waiting for the free crack pipe…
Matt McIrvin
@lowtechcyclist:
The main actual sticking point here is public dining and drinking, which are not possible with masks and are a large part of our communal life. There are some other hard things to navigate like musical performance with wind instruments, which my wife is dealing with.
Apart from that, it’s mostly an annoyance.
Peale
@lowtechcyclist: my new pet theory is that the reason Europeans and their cultural descendernts can’t abide by wearing masks is that they lie all the time. In order to pull off this constant lying, you need to have your mouth visible. It’s where the lies come from. It’s easy to fake a smile convincingly to gain someone’s trust. With masks on, we have to focus on the eyes while communicating. Those are harder to Control. Poker players wear sun glasses and not surgical masks for a reason. the anti maskers can’t wear a mask because they are trying to hide something.
PaulB
I finally received word that my free Covid test kits are going to be delivered. I ordered them on the first day they became available, the “soft launch” the day before the site was scheduled to open. The USPS thinks that they’ll be delivered next Thursday.
Zzyzx
We got our test kits in Seattle weeks ago. Weird.
My personal rule about Corona is that I’ll treat it like I treated the flu (largely ignored it) when the results are flu-esque (say 10-20k cases a day and 200-ish deaths a day). We got there this past summer and I stopped masking for a few weeks. I’m expecting that we’ll get there again in a few months barring another horrible new strain.
I mean my instincts are a bit of an introvert and so I can deal with being at home for long periods reasonably well but I’m also trying to accept that many of my friends aren’t and they’ve long since reached their limit of what they can handle. For that matter I’ve reached mine even so I’m trying to do harm reduction ideas (better quality masking, only going out or traveling for events when I feel I NEED to, no hanging out with friends in hotel rooms after seeing a show) instead of perfection.
Matt McIrvin
@Zzyzx: To some extent my behavior has been a negotiation with other people. I’m easily the most COVID-obsessed person in my household and if it were entirely up to me, I’d probably be much more of a shut-in than I am. But I’ve also learned that if I’m the bad guy who refuses the activity or tries to stop it 100% of the time, that puts a serious strain on relations with my family and friends. So I meet them partway. And they meet me partway.
Their positions are well within the spectrum of reasonable ones–they wear good masks when they can, stay up to date on shots. So it’s not that hard to find that middle ground. I do think we’ll probably get infected eventually.
prostratedragon
@Matt McIrvin: I’ve been rationed a couple of times in the last month when I tried to instacart a few gallons. Fortunately I can nurse what I have on hand for several weeks. I’ve priced home stills at the usual demonsite for under $100.
Matt McIrvin
@prostratedragon: I’m completely out. It’s a very rare case of a commodity being not just scarce but completely unavailable–nobody around here has any distilled water at all. It’s completely absent from store shelves and I don’t think I can get it from my usual grocery-delivery outlets either.
Fair Economist
Flu Report for 1/30/22 – 2/5/22
Positivity up from 1.7% to 2.0%. Lab cases down from 994 to 930, with only 580 added to previous weeks (lowest for over 2 months). H3N2 continues its unprecedented dominance, 97.6% of all typed flus and 100% of all subtyped Type A flus. Hospital admissions up from 785 to 993.
Mortality due to pneumonia, influenza and COVID down to 26.3% from last week’s peak of 28.6%, but still astromically high compared to pre-COVID levels. My interpretation is that flu is now picking up slightly as COVID precautions are being relaxed, since we have not had enough flu cases to provide substantial immunity. I would guess flu season will worsen some from here but there’s probably not enough time left for it to get really bad. Even the worst seasonal flu outbreak is just a blip compared to COVID anyway.
Fair Economist
@Matt McIrvin: It’s likely at this point we’ll all be infected, but how often and how badly are still very important. Right now I’d estimate somebody taking no precautions would get it twice per year. The veterans long term outcome study would estimate 2% of the population going into heart failure each year as a result; that was mostly initial infections, so probably less; but that’s still flirting with an extinction-level event, and that’s not including pulmonary, neurological, renal, and endocrinological consequences, all of which can also be significant. If COVID diversifies into multiple co-circulating strains, which seems likely, then multiply that severalfold.
I think it’s more likely than not that the long term outcome for COVID will have ever-increasing disability and mortality from increasing numbers of circulating strains until it’s so bad the antimaskers and anti-vaxxers are broken by it. Given the current level of insanity, that could be *really* bad, and it’s important we keep up precautions to protect ourselves. Good respirator-level masks reduce infection by 5/6 and regular boosting will probably be a similar level, so I think we can get our infection rate to maybe 5% of the nutcases. That’s not perfect, but it will still be pretty good.
Brachiator
The Covid-19 virus, on the other hand, is well-rested and ready for more.
I understand that people are “tired,” and fortunately the vaccine and other measures can provide much protection, but I hope we can get good recommendations that go beyond just “returning to normal.”
Because of age and health issues, I still try to reduce situations where I am in close contact with a lot of unmasked people. And I am not sure when the county will officially relax mask recommendations and guidelines. I think you still need masks on public transportation.
Lyrebird
@NeenerNeener: Thanks for your continued reporting. I know I am too late, but I still want to thank AL for collecting these essential reads!
No test kits in the mail yet for us either. In the Capital District, libraries are giving out test kits to patrons.
RSA
@NeenerNeener: I ordered my test kits on 1/18; they arrived on 2/11. It took longer than I’d expected, but eventually…
different-church-lady
@lowtechcyclist: Because masks SUCK and the idea that we have to wear them forever fills me despair.
different-church-lady
@Erin:
I have no special health needs and the mask is starting to seriously hinder my ability to stay on top of my work, which frequently involve moving a lot of gear around as quickly as possible. Sure, the mask doesn’t hinder breathing that much in ordinary circumstances, but for me it does just enough to make a strenuous situation even worse I find myself fatigued and I have a very difficult time managing my stress because I can’t do the number one thing that helps; take a simple deep breath. I dread every day at work now.
Yeah, it’’s better than dying. I suppose…
Bill Arnold
@Fair Economist:
That’s my situation read as well. (The politics are always in play, so it is best to work to change them, not passively predict.)
An additional twist is that the tissue tropisms for the omicron branch of SARS-CoV-2 have not been adequately characterized. There is less lung infection, good. It’s possible (even likely) that susceptible parts of other organs including vascular endothelium (a?) are less affected as well, but they could be more affected, or affected similarly to how they are with wild strain/delta/similar.
And once the SARS-CoV-2 family gets sufficient large, tissue tropism experiments will no longer be practical/attractive unless sequencing to ID strain is regularly being done in time to make clinical decisions.
Bill Arnold
@different-church-lady:
I will be wearing a mask (N95) until community spread in my area is less than 3 per 100K per day. Currently at about 18. July 2021 my area was at 1-2 cases per day per 100K, and masks came off, including my own.
eddie blake
@different-church-lady: they suck WAY less than being intubated.
Chetan Murthy
@Bill Arnold:
Amen. Amen. There are worse things than having to breathe harder during activity (like not having a lung). The way I look at it, it just means go slower, and you get a cardiopulmonary workout. Like swimming while breathing every third stroke, instead of every second. Lung workouts are better than losing a lung.
J R in WV
The hospital is full of people wearing masks and working Very hard all day long. I find a mask annoying, a little, a better mask is less annoying. I do not understand the unreserved hatred for mask wearing so many people exhibit, when it is so obviously a life-saving thing to do. Also, no cold, no flu, no upper respiratory infection of any kind, a blessing!
I sought a 4th vaccination, can’t be had, from the health dept anyway. Our third vaccination was last August, so if 5 or 6 months is when you need a booster, we are due for another vaccination already. Why would this be limited so strictly at this point in the pandemic?
Annie Laurie, thanks again so much for these compilations of accurate current news!!
Skippy-san
Tom Nichols continues to taunt anyone who thinks precautions are prudent. What I find even more disturbing is his dismissal of human suffering even if it did come from the stupidity of not getting vaxxed.
I firmly believe that we would not be where we are now if we had been more patient earlier.
Chetan Murthy
@J R in WV: I asked the same thing of my doctor last week — and got the same response. I’m at 4mos out, but from what I read, efficacy against infection drops after 10wk, and certainly by 16wk it’s much-diminished.
San Francisco and the state are dropping masking rules next week. Gosh, so great. I asked a pharmacist at my local drug store (first time inside it since Dec ’21) about what would happen if somebody showed up without ID and asked for the vaxx, and he said “we do it on the honor system”. I asked if he would call the cops and his answer was “we don’t do that”.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
People have had a jobs the require wearing masks and other kinds of protective clothing for a long while now and there is a whole subculture in management that goes out of its’ way to flaunt those rules. Forcing The Masters of the Universe to wear just a god damn ESD smock and not bring the coffee out on the production floor so they won’t destroy the machines we are working on has been a pain in my ass my entire professional carer. Every place I worked at they would make a big deal of the CEO wearing his stuff, just to make it clear to the Masters of the Universe they better shut up and follow policy.
I’ve had to stare down clowns from the sales twice who didn’t believe in masks.
JaneE
Unfortunately, around here even that is considered too much to ask. Businesses have had signs up saying they will not enforce mandates for several months. The number of “choose freedom not fear” yard signs keeps going up. I suspect what they mean by that is the opposite of what I mean.
The good news, if you can call it that, is that the mass “town hall” of anti-mask and anti-vax proponents may have been the trigger for 1500 cases that month. 7.5% of the total county population. Right now total fully vaccinated and total confirmed infections is over the county total population. A high percentage of the adult population should be immune, and our case rates are dropping quickly. Only a couple of people died, so the anti-vaxxers are feeling justified.
different-church-lady
@J R in WV:
You don’t understand it because it’s a false dichotomy. It’s perfectly possible to hate masks and yet still understand they are necessary. And vice-versa.
Well, perfectly possible for some people at any rate…
different-church-lady
@eddie blake:
It’d be nice if we can someday get back to those not being the only two choices.
hotshoe
@Chetan Murthy: Good to know.
The local pharmacy put my booster on a separate card from the two main doses.
I dunno if it would be organized into the computer records now, but if they’re basically doing it on the “honor system” I would not be embarrassed to try getting a new booster without mentioning the previous one.
Doses we take now are not taking away from doses that should be sent to poor countries for worldwide effectiveness. That’s a separate (govt and corporate level) problem and it’s not an ethical quandary for me.
White & Gold Purgatorian
@J R in WV: I’m in Alabama and got a booster before my age group was allowed on the suggestion of my doctor. She told me to just go ask for one, that they aren’t asking any questions and unused doses were in fact being thrown out. And she was right, no questions at all. If you don’t mind a little white lie, I’ll bet you could walk into any pharmacy except the ones where you previously got Covid vaccinations, ask for a Covid shot and they would give you a shot and a new card. I say a new card because your old card already shows 3 shots and that might prompt questions. Or maybe say your doctor suggested a second booster because of a health condition you’d rather not specify. They are throwing vaccine away here and I’ll bet they are doing the same in WV. It’s a shame to waste the stuff.
Ruckus
@PeakVT:
My pick. C, both of the above.
Soprano2
@different-church-lady: I think the single worst thing about masks is that no one seems to know when it would be safe for everyone to quit wearing them in public. People can hear “not yet” only so many times before they say “Fuck it, you have no idea and I’m tired of this”.