Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

It’s a doggy dog world.

Trump’s legal defense is going to be a dumpster fire inside a clown car on a derailing train.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

No one could have predicted…

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

Fuck the extremist election deniers. What’s money for if not for keeping them out of office?

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

In short, I come down firmly on all sides of the issue.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

I’m sure you banged some questionable people yourself.

… among the most cringeworthy communications in the history of the alphabet!

No Justins, No Peace

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

Second rate reporter says what?

I wonder if trump will be tried as an adult.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you don’t.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

The GOP is a fucking disgrace.

Chutkan laughs. Lauro sits back down.

An unpunished coup is a training exercise.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Foreign Affairs Open Thread: The Situation in Ukraine

Foreign Affairs Open Thread: The Situation in Ukraine

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  1. 1.

    Baud

    The narrative that “Biden/the U.S. is afraid to confront Russia militarily” is really bothersome.

    It’s propaganda designed to appeal to toxic masculinity impulses.

    Riddle me this: how is the US saying “Russia better not invade Ukraine” a case of being -for- war?

    More propaganda, from the other direction.

  5. 5.

    Patricia Kayden

    Dang. That former Labour leader needs to just stop. Russia would be doing what it’s doing now even without a military buildup. That’s how they roll.

  6. 6.

    trollhattan

    @catclub:

    Seems like that should be “formour Labour leadour” but that’s why I don’t get the big bucks.

    This idea that NATO “expansion” should not happen because, Russia, seems daft. When did Russia gain control over other nations and what they decide to do WRT treaties and geopolics? Sovereign in name only?

  7. 7.

    catclub

    One huge difference between Iraq and today is nobody in their right minds is arguing for a -preventative- war. I’ve yet to hear “we have to launch a strike Russia before it attacks Ukraine.” At most you have some arguing to sanction Moscow now, which also makes v little sense imo

    depends which ‘iraq back then’ you are talking about. April Glaspie got blamed for inviting Saddam to invade Kuwait in 1991. There was insufficent ire in diplomatic talks. So in that regard, we are not making that mistake.

  9. 9.

    germy

    Does Sarah Palin count as foreign affairs news?

    The judge dismissed her lawsuit against the ny times.

    No malice in the palace, was the ruling.

  12. 12.

    Ksmiami

    China be like…backing away  “Don’t look at us Mr. Putin.. we ain’t helping. Hmm what time is the awards ceremony again?…”

  15. 15.

    The Moar You Know

    The Western world already made a catastrophic mistake with regards to Crimea.  Let’s not double down on that (and save for Germany, it looks like the Western world is pretty united on this).

  17. 17.

    New Deal democrat

    This is the best short article I have read so far describing the Ukraine situation from Putin’s point of view:

    https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/

    The very short bullet-point take is that Putin sees the status quo as both unacceptable, and worsening. Thus he sees military force, whether an actual invasion or as a means to gain major Western concessions, as the least worst option.

    Side note: Russia has also managed a ‘soft annexation’ of Belarus in the past year.

    One larger, strategic comment. Hyman Minsky is famous for his “stability breeds instability” theory in economics. But it is equally applicable to both internal and international politics. The more secure parties feel a particular policy architecture is, the more willing they are to ‘push the envelope.’ And the more the architecture holds, the more serious the pushing of the envelope becomes, until at last it catastrophically ruptures. See, e.g., Europe from 1816 to 1914.

  23. 23.

    Baud

    @schrodingers_cat:

    I don’t know.  It may just be sop to his anti-war base based on nothing real.  I have not heard any war drums beating in the U.S., except maybe the media  continually pressing Biden on whether he will send in troops.

  25. 25.

    The Moar You Know

    I’m curious to know what you think we should have done about Crimea.

    @zhena gogolia: I do history and not military tactics so the easy answer to that is “I don’t know, but don’t let Russia just waltz in and take it.”

    WW2 was stoppable with nothing more than hard diplomatic language until Czechoslovakia.  And Hitler could have easily been stopped with Czechoslovakia’s own forces!  He was outgunned!  But the Brits and the French wanted no part of it, said “you’re on your own” and that was the ballgame.

    I suspect Crimea was actually the last chance for stopping what we’re all pretty sure is coming but I would be very happy to be wrong.

  27. 27.

    schrodingers_cat

    BTW the BJP shit show in India is worsening. Now it is an all out war against Muslim women’s freedom of religion by prohibiting them to wear a hijab in educational institutions until the matter is being debated in the courts.

    This is happening in the state of Karnataka where Bengaluru (formerly Bangalore) is.

  28. 28.

    trollhattan

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    Kyiv is 50 degrees north, which would put it north of Quebec. IDK what kind of projection was used for the source maps, so can’t tell if the scales match.

    Not that it matters, just how folks get screwed up trying such things.

  29. 29.

    Roger Moore

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    I think the point isn’t that Kyiv is put in the wrong place on the map of Ukraine, but that Ukraine is placed too far south.  Kyiv is actually about 50°N, but that’s north of anything in the lower 48.  Putting Ukraine at its correct latitude might be marginally more accurate, but it would make the map less meaningful to Americans, because the distances would be between places in Canada that they have less familiarity with.

  30. 30.

    Cermet

    Could we save time and just declare that all countries except Russia can join NATO – because it isn’t an alliance against Russia at all. Russians are just paranoid – even as their Slavic population barely grows and their economy isn’t even as large as just Germany.

    There is absolutely no reason for NATO to expand further – zero. NATO’s purpose was and is to safe guard Western Europe and that job was done – currently, Germany, UK, France (not a direct member but included) and all other members have a military advantage over Russia and that is excluding the US and Canada. Further, this ignores the UK and France’s nukes. Please, enough warmongering by us – if putin wants to be stupid – its not ours’ or Europe’s responsibility.

    I don’t get this action by Biden – if Russia wants to destroy itself then let it.

  33. 33.

    Roger Moore

    @The Moar You Know:

    I do history and not military tactics so the easy answer to that is “I don’t know, but don’t let Russia just waltz in and take it.”

    Sorry, but that’s a BS answer.  What forces should we have mustered to keep Russia from invading?  How would we have gotten them to Crimea?  How would we have supported them once they were there?  What would we have done if the inevitable direct conflict between Russian and American troops had taken place?  If you can’t answer those questions, you are just noodling around.

  38. 38.

    Gin & Tonic

    Also, I have read Zelensky’s decree. He is proposing Wednesday as a day of national unity, not a public holiday.

  39. 39.

    topclimber

    @The Moar You Know: Crimea is important for the Russian Black Sea fleet. I don’t think they ever give it back because it is not just Putin and his mob that would worry about that–so would the regular military. Perhaps they would go for a long-term lease from Ukraine like the USA has abused for the past 60 years at Guantanamo, Cuba.

    If Putin risks military and economic assets on further Ukraine adventures, I don’t think he has equivalent support.

    Unlike 2014, we don’t have our military recuperating from the Iraq war while still bogged down in Afghanistan.  So to the extent that credible US military deterrence matters, we are in much better shape. Something else for the regular military to remind Putin about.

  40. 40.

    Eolirin

    @Cermet: I assume that first paragraph is intended as sarcasm, but it’s the most sensible thing you’ve said on this topic.

    Like, I’m pretty sure the only time NATO has been called to officially provide military support in defense of a member state was when we got attacked on 9/11 and went into Afghanistan. Fear of Russia is not the reason why NATO still exists

    And you know what? If Russia wanted to join NATO at some point, I’d be cool with it. There’s no reason we should exclude anyone who genuinely wants to be part of it and meets the criteria for doing so. Like not having border disputes. Which Ukraine does. And is consequently not eligible for membership at the current time anyway.

  41. 41.

    RaflW

    Off topic but the global accounting firm Mazars has just issued a warning that 10 years of Trump Org financial statements “can no longer be relied upon.”

    If Mazars is willing to say they sucked at due diligence, then the underlying problems must be huge. This is not a move a firm wants to make, but has to.

    A.G. James is getting hot on the trail here!

  42. 42.

    topclimber

    @Cermet: ​
    If you are saying NATO should back off from getting too close to Russia’s borders, I can see justification for that. If you are saying we should let Russia destroy itself and God Knows Who Else by starting a European war, you have totally lost me.

  43. 43.

    Gin & Tonic

    @topclimber: I think it’s clear that some top elements of his military think it would be disastrous. Whether the US has sources that deep or is trying to give the impression it does, that seems to be the play.

    One thing he has done for sure is to unite Ukrainians against Moscow.

  45. 45.

    Juju

    @germy: I’ve tried to read the Rofer article a number of times, but I keep getting an AT&T, fake ad I think, that blocks the whole page.

    Also, is Cermet BiP?

  46. 46.

    Eolirin

    @topclimber: NATO isn’t actively trying to recruit Ukraine. Ukraine wants to join it. And also the EU. This is actually what’s freaking Putin out the most. There are huge roadblocks that will make either of those things difficult for Ukraine to accomplish, but they want them for themselves.

    How do you tell a sovereign nation you’re too close to someone who can make trouble for us so the normal rules for petitioning for membership don’t apply to you?

  48. 48.

    JCJ

    @Roger Moore: During the world cup in Brazil some helpful jackal put up a link to a web site called mapfight.  The address has changed, but it did what you said – an overlay of two maps.  I knew Brazil was big but I did not realize how big until I compared it to the Continental US – Brazil is bigger.

  50. 50.

    Nettoyeur

    @germy: I think that what the Biden folks have done comes down to telling Putin et al: “If you invade Ukraine, here is what we can and will do in response….(some details follow).  So you gotta ask yourself a question….do you feel lucky?”

    (And no, I would not add the “Well do ya, punk?”  just for the fun of yanking Vlad’s chain).

    What Russia is proposing to do is another act in the long history of the March of Folly.  Wars of choice against sizable adversaries mostly end up boomeranging on countries that undertake them.

    And this worry has visibly stirred up the Russian side, with a retired general writing an open letter, general uneasiness, laughable claims about Ukraine and NATO being aggressors etc., and most of all, hesitancy. Every day makes Ukraine and NATO a little stronger, and every day is another day for Russian soldiers living in the cold.

    I don’t know what Putin will do. He has been in total isolation during the Pandemic, reminiscent of that of the last years of Stalin. And as John LeCarré’s George Smiley taught his trainee spies, an old spy in a hurry is the most dangerous of all.

    One remaining exit ramp is for him to declare the maneuvers are over. Another is to accept a Helsinki 2 event. But if he invades, I reckon he will find Ukraine to be One Spicy Meatball…..

  52. 52.

    Sebastian

    @The Moar You Know:

    The West is sadly not as ruthless would be required here. You have to understand Putin and Russia as Oligarchy in the sense of Ancient Rome or a large wealthy terror organization or big mob operation.

    It’s a group of independent power groups who operate under one flag for convenience, shared infrastructure, and mutual benefit.

    People think you have to take out the head (Putin) or somehow convince all the oligarchs to dispose of him when in reality you have to turn them on each other.

    You do this by going strategically after a few of them, first a few 2nd tier ones for practice. You hit them where it’s terribly annoying: you put their ex-wives and girlfriends on the no-fly list, prohibit travel to Europe, esp Paris London, Monaco, Switzerland, Milan, all the glitzy spots. You arrest some of the spoiled nephews so the family starts getting in their grille. You confiscate their washed assets in the West but leave them their money generating operations and thugs because you want them powerful enough to be dangerous internally.

    You start spreading rumors how they talk amongst them that something needs to change, Deepfakes, faked evidence, etc. The other paranoid oligarchs already wonder who is loyal, it doesn’t take a lot here.

    You rinse and repeat and watch them split into two camps: those that haven’t been targeted yet who wonder when it will be their turn and those that are shut out from the West and thus wonder if it wouldn’t be better to change something. Don’t forget, they can’t sit and do nothing and they can’t attack and force the West to roll back the punishment. What they can do is start being a pain in the ass within Russia or start working to remove that fucker VVP who they then perceive as the cause of their diminished status and constant nagging of wives, girlfriends, and business associates.

  54. 54.

    zhena gogolia

    I wish Putin would put 1 one-hundredth of the effort into making his own country a better place to live. He’s had 22 years to do it.

    ETA: So fucking sick of him.

  55. 55.

    Nettoyeur

    @Gin & Tonic:  I would argue it is also like angry husband whose wife divorced his ass 20 years ago showing up one day and demanding that she live with him again….or else he will kill her kids and beat her until she loves him.

  57. 57.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @trollhattan:

    Ah. I don’t think the idea was latitudinal exactness; rather, it was simply to provide a sense of Ukraine’s size relative to a good chunk of the United States. Personally, I found it a very useful graphic.

  59. 59.

    topclimber

    @zhena gogolia: They are free to be stupid, too, along with a long line of nations, ours included, who have gone that route in countless other international situations. On the other hand, if you believe Putin cannot sustain his regime much longer–or see that as a strong possibility– you can opt for a strategic compromise and see how things shake out in the next few years.

    It is much more important for Ukraine to nurture its growth as a democracy and bolster its economy by trading with both the EU and Russia than it is to outmacho Putin.

  60. 60.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @RaflW:

    Right! From downstairs:

    200.
    SiubhanDuinne
    FEBRUARY 14, 2022 AT 4:31 PM
    Mazars USA has just fired Trump as a client. His long time accountants say a decade’s worth of financial records for the Trump Organization are “no longer reliable.”

    Hmmmmm.

    I’m glad you posted the news again in this thread. Kind of amazed it hasn’t engendered more comment here.

  62. 62.

    Geminid

    @SiubhanDuinne: I wish TV and other news outlets used map overlays like that when we went to war in Afghanistan and Iraq. Countries never seem as large on a world map as they are when overlaid on a U.S. map.

  63. 63.

    VeniceRiley

    If Putin wanted an easy way out, he could just declare the exercises successful, and now over. Followed by a poo poo panicky west poo smh.  That’s it.

  65. 65.

    raven

    @Baud: You can stop worrying about this now.

     

    New York (CNN Business)Judge Jed Rakoff, the judge overseeing former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s defamation lawsuit against the New York Times, said Monday afternoon that he will dismiss the suit, ruling that Palin’s team did not prove a key element of its case.

    Rakoff’s ruling came while the jury is deliberating over a verdict — and Rakoff said he will allow the jury to continue deliberating and to reach a verdict, and will dismiss the case once it has done so.

  68. 68.

    LongHairedWeirdo

    I hear tell the right wing is trying to please Russia, hyping how Ukraine might join NATO.

    Am I crazy here? Doesn’t this take the “Russian government support for Trump” all the way up to suspected treason? I mean, forget the Constitutional definition, aren’t they acting directly counter to the interest of America? In a way that pleases the Russians? And Kushner and Junior got security clearance? When they *might* be compromised?

    Weren’t they priming the crowd that it’s just jim-DANDY that Trump is a Putin asskisser?

    Is there some reason we just won’t even seem to think about this? Is this one of my “weird” ideas/observations. I’d say there’s lots of reason to gather some evidence, and eventually, open an investigation. I don’t see why that isn’t obvious.

  70. 70.

    Bill Arnold

    @Eolirin:

    How do you tell a sovereign nation you’re too close to someone who can make trouble for us so the normal rules for petitioning for membership don’t apply to you?

    My reading, perhaps incorrect, is that Russia has already mostly done this. The rules for the process of accession to NATO membership including agreeing that the nation will agree to resolve any existing territorial disputes peacefully. Russia spiked that (lowered its probability a lot) in 2014 with the seizure and subsequent annexation of Crimea and the “invasion” in the East (issuance of passports to those in the separatist areas, to make the place inhabited by Russian nationals), same as it did in Georgia 8(?) years earlier.[1] (Perhaps one of the intents?) And ultra-RW(/fascist) elements in Ukraine have made it clear that any compromise on those territories will result in a coup attempt. Those elements might even be being covertly manipulated/supported by Russia to further lower the probability of accession to NATO membership, and simultaneously potentially provide excuses for invasion and similar measures. (Would be military malpractice not to do so. It’s Just Logic! :-)

    Re the Clausewitz quote:
    Clausewitz, “On War”[2], “A conqueror is always a lover of peace (as Buonaparte always asserted of himself); he would like to make his entry into our state unopposed;”

    [1] TBH, there is quite a lot of dispute about accession possibilities for Ukraine, that I have not digested.
    [2] That early translation has the virtue of being free.

  71. 71.

    trollhattan

    What in the actual fuck is this garbage. Manchin!!! [shakes fist]

    February 14, 2022 at 5:39 pm EST By Taegan Goddard

    Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) told reporters that he would not support confirming another nominee to the Supreme Court right before the midterm elections and would prefer to wait until the country knows which party will control the Senate in 2023, The Hill reports.

    Said Manchin: “I’m not going to be hypocritical on that. If it comes a week or two weeks before like it did with our last Supreme Court nominee, I think that’s a time it should go to the next election.”

    Last straw with this dude. Now he’s Lindsay Fucking Graham? Bastard.

  75. 75.

    debbie

    @Cermet:

    NATO is a defense organization. It was formed to protect member nations from the Soviet Union. As we see now, that protection is still needed. Anyone who thinks Putin will stop at Ukraine knows nothing about greed and power. Neither are ever satisfied.

  79. 79.

    danielx

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    One would think it unusual for a major accounting firm to fire a major well-heeled client, presuming Trump has restrained his tendency to stiff his creditors in Mazars’ case.

    It would be irresponsible not to speculate.*

    *This phrase is the only reason – ever – to feel any gratitude to Our Lady of Stolichnaya.

  81. 81.

    bjacques

    @Bill Arnold: I added Pripyat and Dnipro to my iPhone weather app, and am wondering if the last 3-4 days in the low 20s constitutes a hard freeze. Probably not.

  82. 82.

    Fair Economist

    @Cermet: Were Ukraine part of NATO, there would be no chance of war right now, just like with the Baltics. It’s a real shame it wasn’t able to join earlier.

  85. 85.

    Cacti

    While I don’t think the US has much moral high ground to be lecturing anyone about military aggression, it’s wrong when Russia does it too.

  86. 86.

    Geminid

    @Gin & Tonic: There is a very good refutation in the LGM blog of the DSA’s January 31 statement on the Ukaine situation. One of many DSA half-truths and outright lies debunked was that the Ukrainian far right was a significant political force; the author said that these parties won 2% of the vote in the election after Maidan. It’s quite a good article.

  87. 87.

    Philbert

    @topclimber: Another item of Ukraine moving away from Russia. Ukraine is about to test disconnecting its electrical grid from Russia, and operate in isolation. This is a temporary test in preparation for switching to EU power in 2023.  Per Atlantic Council.

  89. 89.

    Sloane Ranger

    And there were people here saying what a great leader Corbyn was. Yet here he is proving why so many of us long term Labour supporters were concerned about his judgement. That’s not to say he’s a bad person, just an idealist who was, and is, totally unsuited to the hard realities of geopolitics. Although our current PM is just as bad, only in different ways.

  90. 90.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Nettoyeur: Every day makes Ukraine and NATO a little stronger, and every day is another day for Russian soldiers living in the cold.

    And exposing each other to Covid.

  91. 91.

    Jinchi

    @schrodingers_cat: IDK. I am guessing he is criticizing the Biden administration.

    It’s easy enough to read what he wrote:

    We should be clear about who is most responsible for this looming crisis: Vladimir Putin. Having already seized parts of Ukraine in 2014, the Russian president now threatens to take over the entire country and destroy Ukrainian democracy. In my view, we must unequivocally support the sovereignty of Ukraine and make clear that the international community will impose severe consequences on Putin and his associates if he does not change course.

    That clearly reiterates Biden’s foreign policy.

    As for this

    I am extremely concerned when I hear the familiar drumbeats in Washington, the bellicose rhetoric that gets amplified before every war, demanding that we must “show strength”, “get tough” and not engage in “appeasement”.

    Biden is not the target of that criticism since Biden isn’t threatening war or bemoaning appeasement.

    Sanders is clearly refering to comments like this (Joni Ernst):

    Biden administration has ‘doctrine of appeasement’ toward Russia: Ernst

    and this (Tom Cotton)

    Biden’s weak-kneed appeasement provokes Putin, America’s enemies

    and this (Townhall)

    The Biden Administration Is Urging Ukraine to Appease Russia

    These are all rightwing or Republican critics banging the war drums in direct opposition to President Biden.

  92. 92.

    Bill Arnold

    @Gin & Tonic:
    I was referring to this NYTimes piece, but will trust your word on the matter. (I do wonder whether Russia is playing both sides, though.)
    Thanks BTW for that link a week ago to that TheBulwark piece by Natalia Antonova.[1]
    Armed Nationalists in Ukraine Pose a Threat Not Just to Russia – Kyiv is encouraging the arming of nationalist paramilitary groups to thwart a Russian invasion. But they could also destabilize the government if it agrees to a peace deal they reject. (nytimes, 10 Feb 2022)

    [1] The Ghosts of Kyiv and the Shadow of War – Reflections on the spirit of Ukraine’s capital, as worries of a Russian invasion grow. (NATALIA ANTONOVA, JANUARY 28, 2022, The Bulwark)

  94. 94.

    Sally

    @Eolirin: I so closely and strongly echo everything you say, on this topic.  Ukraine is a sovereign nation, as are each of the EU and NATO members.  All are entitled to make their own decisions, and not be dictated to by Russia.  The point of being a sovereign nation.  Also, too, finally, all Ukraine is entitled to do is petition to apply.  Then there are many onerous criteria to meet, which, as you’ve said previously, they do not.  Putin is seeing to that.  I am upset that too many people are happy to remove agency (that world again – only Democrats have agency, in this case only Biden can create peace) from sovereign nations.  Including Russia.  Putin has agency to pull back, no one is “forcing” him to go to war.  For heaven’s sake!  If he wants to be a grown up, then act like it!

  95. 95.

    Mo MacArbie

    Ah yes, “appeasement”, the Republiglish word for foreign policy. It appears just after “amnesty” in my handy Republiglish-to-English dictionary.

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