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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Foreign Affairs Open Thread: The Situation in Ukraine

Foreign Affairs Open Thread: The Situation in Ukraine

by Anne Laurie|  February 14, 20224:16 pm| 95 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, War in Ukraine

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For those in North America trying to grasp the size of Ukraine.

Wikimedia: https://t.co/aWXeWExTO1 pic.twitter.com/BO8MPni9Nu

— Alexander Lanoszka (@ALanoszka) February 13, 2022

Ukraine's Zelenskiy says he's making Wednesday, the day US intel indicated could be the date for a Russian attack on Kyiv, as public holiday.

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) February 14, 2022

?Ukraine’s Zelenskiy spooks markets with what appeared to be a sarcastic comment about the rest of the world predicting a date for a Russian attack, which he said should be a day of unity instead, @business reports.

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) February 14, 2022

“The aggressor is always peace-loving… he would prefer to take over our country unopposed.”

My favorite Clausewitz line is especially applicable today. Those who somehow buy that the country massing 150,000 troops on another’s border is not the aggressor should take it to heart

— Nicholas Grossman (@NGrossman81) February 13, 2022

"The path for diplomacy remains available if Russia chooses to engage constructively," @KJP46 says. "However, we are clear eyed about the prospects of that given the steps Russia is taking on the ground, in plain sight." pic.twitter.com/vFHu0cw7ul

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) February 14, 2022

Ukraine-Russia crisis updates: Diplomatic efforts have entered a new round in a bid to head off what U.S. officials have warned could be an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine. https://t.co/iGvB2oPRDg

— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) February 14, 2022


Main Russian weekly news programme has stepped up rhetoric a bit. “Ukraine ready to kill again”; “West creating Cordon sanitaire to cut off Rus from Eur”. But it sounds flat compared to previous acidic narratives. If order has gone out to invade, tv guys haven’t yet been told pic.twitter.com/DosaqZHILg

— Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) February 13, 2022

Grateful for @AmbDanFried's clear-eyed analysis on #UkraineCrisis.

11th hour options include:

– show stick: send equipment to support prolonged resistance to possible Russian occupation

– offer carrot: a major “Helsinki 2.0" summit (citing @McFaul)https://t.co/UqGEKvzV8j

— Ryan Goodman (@rgoodlaw) February 13, 2022

"This next 10 days or so will be critical." A convergence of events could determine how the Ukraine crisis plays out. https://t.co/8cMdJJrzEo

— The Associated Press (@AP) February 13, 2022

The narrative that "Biden/the U.S. is afraid to confront Russia militarily" is really bothersome. It's not that we're afraid, it's that we're behaving responsibly, because *we*, not Russia, are responsible for the general security of both Europe and the larger world. (1/3)

— Zachery Tyson (@ZaknafeinDC) February 13, 2022

We didn't "confront Russia militarily" in '68 or '79, for similar reasons. Our responses, then as now, are calibrated via diplomatic, economic, and clandestine means both to avoid direct confrontation & provide aid to our partners to ensure an eventual Russian defeat. (3/3)

— Zachery Tyson (@ZaknafeinDC) February 13, 2022

At this point, no one has conceded anything to Putin. He now faces a choice between a potentially risky invasion with diplomatic and economic consequences, and pretending he didn’t mean it. I’m not sure how this amounts to winning.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) February 13, 2022

I think Putin is way in over his skis. He may be able to win militarily, but not strategically. He has played a bad hand very well for quite some time now, but it’s still a bad hand.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) February 13, 2022

This is such bullshit. Intel is routinely reported without underlying evidence that could compromise sources and methods and Jake Tapper knows that. Whether or not the skepticism is warranted, the quote lack of evidence is not unique. https://t.co/aA4CNYKWr1

— Tommy moderna-vaX-Topher (@tommyxtopher) February 13, 2022

Hard to argue with the results. All focus has been on US/UK intel and OSINT about the Russian build-up. Russian counter messaging including disinfo about Ukraine ACKCHOOALLY being the aggressor hasn't broken into western media outside of Tucker Carlson.

BIG shift from 2014. https://t.co/dGu9kk4mrR

— zeddy (@Zeddary) February 12, 2022

Riddle me this: how is the US saying “Russia better not invade Ukraine” a case of being -for- war? It feels like for some people trying to avert a war counts as warmongering and I really don’t get it.

— Hayes Brown (@HayesBrown) February 13, 2022

what kind of wild reverse psychology op do people think is happening? “oooh I sure would HATE it if Russia invaded Ukraine. Looking all vulnerable and at risk and geopolitically important. nobody [knowing glance] had better launch a war! hint hint.”

— Hayes Brown (@HayesBrown) February 13, 2022

anyway, barring some miracle that leaves Ukraine feeling secure against Russia and Moscow feeling chill towards NATO, the best case scenario for the US is Putin says “nah I’m good” and everything goes back to the status quo which is, to be clear, not war

— Hayes Brown (@HayesBrown) February 13, 2022

Just look at this provocative buildup of the Polish forces armed with lethal weapons supplied by Britain and France, we must find a diplomatic solution and address German security concerns and the unfair Versailles treaty! https://t.co/kuKqTl3oCo pic.twitter.com/pwZxAPtXjN

— Prisoner of consciousness ???? ???#NotOurTsar (@Mortis_Banned) February 12, 2022

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Reader Interactions

95Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    February 14, 2022 at 4:23 pm

    The narrative that “Biden/the U.S. is afraid to confront Russia militarily” is really bothersome.

    It’s propaganda designed to appeal to toxic masculinity impulses.

    Riddle me this: how is the US saying “Russia better not invade Ukraine” a case of being -for- war?

    More propaganda, from the other direction.

  2. 2.

    catclub

    February 14, 2022 at 4:25 pm

    accent on ‘former’ Labour leader.

  3. 3.

    trollhattan

    February 14, 2022 at 4:31 pm

    Man, Kyiv got dragged way south for that map.

    -Mr. Offtopic

  4. 4.

    VeniceRiley

    February 14, 2022 at 4:31 pm

    I’m a garrotes and sticks kind of gal.

  5. 5.

    Patricia Kayden

    February 14, 2022 at 4:34 pm

    Dang. That former Labour leader needs to just stop. Russia would be doing what it’s doing now even without a military buildup. That’s how they roll.

  6. 6.

    trollhattan

    February 14, 2022 at 4:38 pm

    @catclub:

    Seems like that should be “formour Labour leadour” but that’s why I don’t get the big bucks.

    This idea that NATO “expansion” should not happen because, Russia, seems daft. When did Russia gain control over other nations and what they decide to do WRT treaties and geopolics? Sovereign in name only?

  7. 7.

    catclub

    February 14, 2022 at 4:38 pm

    One huge difference between Iraq and today is nobody in their right minds is arguing for a -preventative- war. I’ve yet to hear “we have to launch a strike Russia before it attacks Ukraine.” At most you have some arguing to sanction Moscow now, which also makes v little sense imo

    depends which ‘iraq back then’ you are talking about. April Glaspie got blamed for inviting Saddam to invade Kuwait in 1991. There was insufficent ire in diplomatic talks. So in that regard, we are not making that mistake.

  8. 8.

    catclub

    February 14, 2022 at 4:39 pm

    @trollhattan: but that’s why I don’t get the big bucks.

     

    Whats you blockchain password?  i can send you some.

  9. 9.

    germy

    February 14, 2022 at 4:42 pm

    Does Sarah Palin count as foreign affairs news?

    The judge dismissed her lawsuit against the ny times.

    No malice in the palace, was the ruling.

  10. 10.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 14, 2022 at 4:43 pm

    @Patricia Kayden: Vermont Corbyn had similar things to say. 

  11. 11.

    Baud

    February 14, 2022 at 4:44 pm

    I wonder if Corbyn would agree that Bay of Pigs had a noble purpose.

  12. 12.

    Ksmiami

    February 14, 2022 at 4:44 pm

    China be like…backing away  “Don’t look at us Mr. Putin.. we ain’t helping. Hmm what time is the awards ceremony again?…”

  13. 13.

    Baud

    February 14, 2022 at 4:45 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:

    Who in Washington is beating the drums?  Did he say?

  14. 14.

    The Moar You Know

    February 14, 2022 at 4:45 pm

    In B4 paid Russian stooge.

  15. 15.

    The Moar You Know

    February 14, 2022 at 4:48 pm

    The Western world already made a catastrophic mistake with regards to Crimea.  Let’s not double down on that (and save for Germany, it looks like the Western world is pretty united on this).

  16. 16.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 14, 2022 at 4:53 pm

    @Baud: IDK. I am guessing he is criticizing the Biden administration.

  17. 17.

    New Deal democrat

    February 14, 2022 at 4:53 pm

    This is the best short article I have read so far describing the Ukraine situation from Putin’s point of view:

    https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/

    The very short bullet-point take is that Putin sees the status quo as both unacceptable, and worsening. Thus he sees military force, whether an actual invasion or as a means to gain major Western concessions, as the least worst option.

    Side note: Russia has also managed a ‘soft annexation’ of Belarus in the past year.

    One larger, strategic comment. Hyman Minsky is famous for his “stability breeds instability” theory in economics. But it is equally applicable to both internal and international politics. The more secure parties feel a particular policy architecture is, the more willing they are to ‘push the envelope.’ And the more the architecture holds, the more serious the pushing of the envelope becomes, until at last it catastrophically ruptures. See, e.g., Europe from 1816 to 1914.

  18. 18.

    zhena gogolia

    February 14, 2022 at 4:53 pm

    @The Moar You Know: I’m curious to know what you think we should have done about Crimea.

  19. 19.

    brendancalling

    February 14, 2022 at 4:53 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: anti-war Bernie who brought F-35s to Vermont. That’s a guy who’s well past his sell-by date.

  20. 20.

    SiubhanDuinne

    February 14, 2022 at 4:54 pm

    @trollhattan:

    Looks reasonably accurate to me. Where would you place Kyiv?

    #iamnotacartographer

  21. 21.

    SiubhanDuinne

    February 14, 2022 at 4:55 pm

    @VeniceRiley:

    LOL

  22. 22.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 14, 2022 at 4:56 pm

    @brendancalling: His pro-gun and anti-immigration voting record is also memory holed by his stans. He is a demagogue. Putin sure knows how to pick them.

  23. 23.

    Baud

    February 14, 2022 at 4:57 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:

    I don’t know.  It may just be sop to his anti-war base based on nothing real.  I have not heard any war drums beating in the U.S., except maybe the media  continually pressing Biden on whether he will send in troops.

  24. 24.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 14, 2022 at 4:58 pm

    @Baud: I hope so. He definitely seems to like Biden far more than he did HRC.

  25. 25.

    The Moar You Know

    February 14, 2022 at 4:58 pm

    I’m curious to know what you think we should have done about Crimea.

    @zhena gogolia: I do history and not military tactics so the easy answer to that is “I don’t know, but don’t let Russia just waltz in and take it.”

    WW2 was stoppable with nothing more than hard diplomatic language until Czechoslovakia.  And Hitler could have easily been stopped with Czechoslovakia’s own forces!  He was outgunned!  But the Brits and the French wanted no part of it, said “you’re on your own” and that was the ballgame.

    I suspect Crimea was actually the last chance for stopping what we’re all pretty sure is coming but I would be very happy to be wrong.

  26. 26.

    Baud

    February 14, 2022 at 5:01 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:

    True, but it’s not helpful if he doesn’t identify the target, because people who listen to him will assume it’s coming from Biden.

  27. 27.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 14, 2022 at 5:01 pm

    BTW the BJP shit show in India is worsening. Now it is an all out war against Muslim women’s freedom of religion by prohibiting them to wear a hijab in educational institutions until the matter is being debated in the courts.

    This is happening in the state of Karnataka where Bengaluru (formerly Bangalore) is.

  28. 28.

    trollhattan

    February 14, 2022 at 5:01 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    Kyiv is 50 degrees north, which would put it north of Quebec. IDK what kind of projection was used for the source maps, so can’t tell if the scales match.

    Not that it matters, just how folks get screwed up trying such things.

  29. 29.

    Roger Moore

    February 14, 2022 at 5:02 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    I think the point isn’t that Kyiv is put in the wrong place on the map of Ukraine, but that Ukraine is placed too far south.  Kyiv is actually about 50°N, but that’s north of anything in the lower 48.  Putting Ukraine at its correct latitude might be marginally more accurate, but it would make the map less meaningful to Americans, because the distances would be between places in Canada that they have less familiarity with.

  30. 30.

    Cermet

    February 14, 2022 at 5:03 pm

    Could we save time and just declare that all countries except Russia can join NATO – because it isn’t an alliance against Russia at all. Russians are just paranoid – even as their Slavic population barely grows and their economy isn’t even as large as just Germany.

    There is absolutely no reason for NATO to expand further – zero. NATO’s purpose was and is to safe guard Western Europe and that job was done – currently, Germany, UK, France (not a direct member but included) and all other members have a military advantage over Russia and that is excluding the US and Canada. Further, this ignores the UK and France’s nukes. Please, enough warmongering by us – if putin wants to be stupid – its not ours’ or Europe’s responsibility.

    I don’t get this action by Biden – if Russia wants to destroy itself then let it.

  31. 31.

    Baud

    February 14, 2022 at 5:04 pm

    @Cermet:

    We aren’t warmongering.  Not even if you disagree with our position on NATO expansion.

  32. 32.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 14, 2022 at 5:05 pm

    @trollhattan: I suspect it was overlaid that way just to give an idea of the country’s size.

    ETA: Roger said it better.

  33. 33.

    Roger Moore

    February 14, 2022 at 5:07 pm

    @The Moar You Know:

    I do history and not military tactics so the easy answer to that is “I don’t know, but don’t let Russia just waltz in and take it.”

    Sorry, but that’s a BS answer.  What forces should we have mustered to keep Russia from invading?  How would we have gotten them to Crimea?  How would we have supported them once they were there?  What would we have done if the inevitable direct conflict between Russian and American troops had taken place?  If you can’t answer those questions, you are just noodling around.

  34. 34.

    germy

    February 14, 2022 at 5:08 pm

    Cheryl Rofer at LGM:

    Anne Applebaum wants to school American and European diplomats in Russian thinking. Her short op-ed gets a number of things wrong and provides an opportunity to point out how gendered thinking about diplomacy and war can undermine analysis.

  35. 35.

    zhena gogolia

    February 14, 2022 at 5:12 pm

    @germy: That is excellent.

  36. 36.

    dmsilev

    February 14, 2022 at 5:12 pm

    @germy: That was a good article; well worth the time to read.

  37. 37.

    Baud

    February 14, 2022 at 5:14 pm

    @germy: Oh, I said almost the same thing in Comment # 1.  I feel smart now.

  38. 38.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 14, 2022 at 5:21 pm

    Also, I have read Zelensky’s decree. He is proposing Wednesday as a day of national unity, not a public holiday.

  39. 39.

    topclimber

    February 14, 2022 at 5:25 pm

    @The Moar You Know: Crimea is important for the Russian Black Sea fleet. I don’t think they ever give it back because it is not just Putin and his mob that would worry about that–so would the regular military. Perhaps they would go for a long-term lease from Ukraine like the USA has abused for the past 60 years at Guantanamo, Cuba.

    If Putin risks military and economic assets on further Ukraine adventures, I don’t think he has equivalent support.

    Unlike 2014, we don’t have our military recuperating from the Iraq war while still bogged down in Afghanistan.  So to the extent that credible US military deterrence matters, we are in much better shape. Something else for the regular military to remind Putin about.

  40. 40.

    Eolirin

    February 14, 2022 at 5:28 pm

    @Cermet: I assume that first paragraph is intended as sarcasm, but it’s the most sensible thing you’ve said on this topic.

    Like, I’m pretty sure the only time NATO has been called to officially provide military support in defense of a member state was when we got attacked on 9/11 and went into Afghanistan. Fear of Russia is not the reason why NATO still exists

    And you know what? If Russia wanted to join NATO at some point, I’d be cool with it. There’s no reason we should exclude anyone who genuinely wants to be part of it and meets the criteria for doing so. Like not having border disputes. Which Ukraine does. And is consequently not eligible for membership at the current time anyway.

  41. 41.

    RaflW

    February 14, 2022 at 5:31 pm

    Off topic but the global accounting firm Mazars has just issued a warning that 10 years of Trump Org financial statements “can no longer be relied upon.”

    If Mazars is willing to say they sucked at due diligence, then the underlying problems must be huge. This is not a move a firm wants to make, but has to.

    A.G. James is getting hot on the trail here!

  42. 42.

    topclimber

    February 14, 2022 at 5:32 pm

    @Cermet: ​
    If you are saying NATO should back off from getting too close to Russia’s borders, I can see justification for that. If you are saying we should let Russia destroy itself and God Knows Who Else by starting a European war, you have totally lost me.

  43. 43.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 14, 2022 at 5:32 pm

    @topclimber: I think it’s clear that some top elements of his military think it would be disastrous. Whether the US has sources that deep or is trying to give the impression it does, that seems to be the play.

    One thing he has done for sure is to unite Ukrainians against Moscow.

  44. 44.

    zhena gogolia

    February 14, 2022 at 5:38 pm

    @topclimber: Why can’t any sovereign nation decide to join NATO?

  45. 45.

    Juju

    February 14, 2022 at 5:39 pm

    @germy: I’ve tried to read the Rofer article a number of times, but I keep getting an AT&T, fake ad I think, that blocks the whole page.

    Also, is Cermet BiP?

  46. 46.

    Eolirin

    February 14, 2022 at 5:42 pm

    @topclimber: NATO isn’t actively trying to recruit Ukraine. Ukraine wants to join it. And also the EU. This is actually what’s freaking Putin out the most. There are huge roadblocks that will make either of those things difficult for Ukraine to accomplish, but they want them for themselves.

    How do you tell a sovereign nation you’re too close to someone who can make trouble for us so the normal rules for petitioning for membership don’t apply to you?

  47. 47.

    trollhattan

    February 14, 2022 at 5:42 pm

    @Juju: Also, is Cermet BiP?

    If the CIA caused AIDS, then yes.

  48. 48.

    JCJ

    February 14, 2022 at 5:43 pm

    @Roger Moore: During the world cup in Brazil some helpful jackal put up a link to a web site called mapfight.  The address has changed, but it did what you said – an overlay of two maps.  I knew Brazil was big but I did not realize how big until I compared it to the Continental US – Brazil is bigger.

  49. 49.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 14, 2022 at 5:43 pm

    @Juju: No, the posts are way too short for BiP style.

  50. 50.

    Nettoyeur

    February 14, 2022 at 5:44 pm

    @germy: I think that what the Biden folks have done comes down to telling Putin et al: “If you invade Ukraine, here is what we can and will do in response….(some details follow).  So you gotta ask yourself a question….do you feel lucky?”

    (And no, I would not add the “Well do ya, punk?”  just for the fun of yanking Vlad’s chain).

    What Russia is proposing to do is another act in the long history of the March of Folly.  Wars of choice against sizable adversaries mostly end up boomeranging on countries that undertake them.

    And this worry has visibly stirred up the Russian side, with a retired general writing an open letter, general uneasiness, laughable claims about Ukraine and NATO being aggressors etc., and most of all, hesitancy. Every day makes Ukraine and NATO a little stronger, and every day is another day for Russian soldiers living in the cold.

    I don’t know what Putin will do. He has been in total isolation during the Pandemic, reminiscent of that of the last years of Stalin. And as John LeCarré’s George Smiley taught his trainee spies, an old spy in a hurry is the most dangerous of all.

    One remaining exit ramp is for him to declare the maneuvers are over. Another is to accept a Helsinki 2 event. But if he invades, I reckon he will find Ukraine to be One Spicy Meatball…..

  51. 51.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 14, 2022 at 5:46 pm

    @Eolirin: Excuse me if this is insensitive, but Ukraine is like a woman forced to live next door to her abusive ex forever.

  52. 52.

    Sebastian

    February 14, 2022 at 5:47 pm

    @The Moar You Know:

    The West is sadly not as ruthless would be required here. You have to understand Putin and Russia as Oligarchy in the sense of Ancient Rome or a large wealthy terror organization or big mob operation.

    It’s a group of independent power groups who operate under one flag for convenience, shared infrastructure, and mutual benefit.

    People think you have to take out the head (Putin) or somehow convince all the oligarchs to dispose of him when in reality you have to turn them on each other.

    You do this by going strategically after a few of them, first a few 2nd tier ones for practice. You hit them where it’s terribly annoying: you put their ex-wives and girlfriends on the no-fly list, prohibit travel to Europe, esp Paris London, Monaco, Switzerland, Milan, all the glitzy spots. You arrest some of the spoiled nephews so the family starts getting in their grille. You confiscate their washed assets in the West but leave them their money generating operations and thugs because you want them powerful enough to be dangerous internally.

    You start spreading rumors how they talk amongst them that something needs to change, Deepfakes, faked evidence, etc. The other paranoid oligarchs already wonder who is loyal, it doesn’t take a lot here.

    You rinse and repeat and watch them split into two camps: those that haven’t been targeted yet who wonder when it will be their turn and those that are shut out from the West and thus wonder if it wouldn’t be better to change something. Don’t forget, they can’t sit and do nothing and they can’t attack and force the West to roll back the punishment. What they can do is start being a pain in the ass within Russia or start working to remove that fucker VVP who they then perceive as the cause of their diminished status and constant nagging of wives, girlfriends, and business associates.

  53. 53.

    Juju

    February 14, 2022 at 5:48 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: That’s true. I’ve forgotten how long winded that guy was.

  54. 54.

    zhena gogolia

    February 14, 2022 at 5:48 pm

    I wish Putin would put 1 one-hundredth of the effort into making his own country a better place to live. He’s had 22 years to do it.

    ETA: So fucking sick of him.

  55. 55.

    Nettoyeur

    February 14, 2022 at 5:50 pm

    @Gin & Tonic:  I would argue it is also like angry husband whose wife divorced his ass 20 years ago showing up one day and demanding that she live with him again….or else he will kill her kids and beat her until she loves him.

  56. 56.

    Juju

    February 14, 2022 at 5:52 pm

    @Nettoyeur: You mixed your movie metaphors.

  57. 57.

    SiubhanDuinne

    February 14, 2022 at 5:54 pm

    @trollhattan:

    Ah. I don’t think the idea was latitudinal exactness; rather, it was simply to provide a sense of Ukraine’s size relative to a good chunk of the United States. Personally, I found it a very useful graphic.

  58. 58.

    Juju

    February 14, 2022 at 5:55 pm

    @Gin & Tonic:  That actually seems like an appropriate analogy.  Going with that analogy, the only thing that will end things is the death of the ex.

  59. 59.

    topclimber

    February 14, 2022 at 5:58 pm

    @zhena gogolia: They are free to be stupid, too, along with a long line of nations, ours included, who have gone that route in countless other international situations. On the other hand, if you believe Putin cannot sustain his regime much longer–or see that as a strong possibility– you can opt for a strategic compromise and see how things shake out in the next few years.

    It is much more important for Ukraine to nurture its growth as a democracy and bolster its economy by trading with both the EU and Russia than it is to outmacho Putin.

  60. 60.

    SiubhanDuinne

    February 14, 2022 at 6:02 pm

    @RaflW:

    Right! From downstairs:

    200.
    SiubhanDuinne
    FEBRUARY 14, 2022 AT 4:31 PM
    Mazars USA has just fired Trump as a client. His long time accountants say a decade’s worth of financial records for the Trump Organization are “no longer reliable.”

    Hmmmmm.

    I’m glad you posted the news again in this thread. Kind of amazed it hasn’t engendered more comment here.

  61. 61.

    WhatsMyNym

    February 14, 2022 at 6:10 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    Mazars USA has just fired Trump as a client.

    They’re just trying to save themselves.

  62. 62.

    Geminid

    February 14, 2022 at 6:14 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne: I wish TV and other news outlets used map overlays like that when we went to war in Afghanistan and Iraq. Countries never seem as large on a world map as they are when overlaid on a U.S. map.

  63. 63.

    VeniceRiley

    February 14, 2022 at 6:16 pm

    If Putin wanted an easy way out, he could just declare the exercises successful, and now over. Followed by a poo poo panicky west poo smh.  That’s it.

  64. 64.

    MattF

    February 14, 2022 at 6:17 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne: Mazars to Trump: ‘You’re fired’.

    Informed speculation is that Mazars is looking ahead to cooperating with the prosecution.

  65. 65.

    raven

    February 14, 2022 at 6:19 pm

    @Baud: You can stop worrying about this now.

     

    New York (CNN Business)Judge Jed Rakoff, the judge overseeing former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s defamation lawsuit against the New York Times, said Monday afternoon that he will dismiss the suit, ruling that Palin’s team did not prove a key element of its case.

    Rakoff’s ruling came while the jury is deliberating over a verdict — and Rakoff said he will allow the jury to continue deliberating and to reach a verdict, and will dismiss the case once it has done so.

  66. 66.

    bjacques

    February 14, 2022 at 6:19 pm

    @Nettoyeur: and Putin will get no kleb with that one meatball.

    Speaking of relative country sizes…

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=N3lz2GFfkEg

  67. 67.

    Baud

    February 14, 2022 at 6:20 pm

    @raven:

    Was I worried about it?

  68. 68.

    LongHairedWeirdo

    February 14, 2022 at 6:22 pm

    I hear tell the right wing is trying to please Russia, hyping how Ukraine might join NATO.

    Am I crazy here? Doesn’t this take the “Russian government support for Trump” all the way up to suspected treason? I mean, forget the Constitutional definition, aren’t they acting directly counter to the interest of America? In a way that pleases the Russians? And Kushner and Junior got security clearance? When they *might* be compromised?

    Weren’t they priming the crowd that it’s just jim-DANDY that Trump is a Putin asskisser?

    Is there some reason we just won’t even seem to think about this? Is this one of my “weird” ideas/observations. I’d say there’s lots of reason to gather some evidence, and eventually, open an investigation. I don’t see why that isn’t obvious.

  69. 69.

    raven

    February 14, 2022 at 6:23 pm

    @Baud: perhaps it was zhena gogolia?

  70. 70.

    Bill Arnold

    February 14, 2022 at 6:24 pm

    @Eolirin:

    How do you tell a sovereign nation you’re too close to someone who can make trouble for us so the normal rules for petitioning for membership don’t apply to you?

    My reading, perhaps incorrect, is that Russia has already mostly done this. The rules for the process of accession to NATO membership including agreeing that the nation will agree to resolve any existing territorial disputes peacefully. Russia spiked that (lowered its probability a lot) in 2014 with the seizure and subsequent annexation of Crimea and the “invasion” in the East (issuance of passports to those in the separatist areas, to make the place inhabited by Russian nationals), same as it did in Georgia 8(?) years earlier.[1] (Perhaps one of the intents?) And ultra-RW(/fascist) elements in Ukraine have made it clear that any compromise on those territories will result in a coup attempt. Those elements might even be being covertly manipulated/supported by Russia to further lower the probability of accession to NATO membership, and simultaneously potentially provide excuses for invasion and similar measures. (Would be military malpractice not to do so. It’s Just Logic! :-)

    Re the Clausewitz quote:
    Clausewitz, “On War”[2], “A conqueror is always a lover of peace (as Buonaparte always asserted of himself); he would like to make his entry into our state unopposed;”

    [1] TBH, there is quite a lot of dispute about accession possibilities for Ukraine, that I have not digested.
    [2] That early translation has the virtue of being free.

  71. 71.

    trollhattan

    February 14, 2022 at 6:37 pm

    What in the actual fuck is this garbage. Manchin!!! [shakes fist]

    February 14, 2022 at 5:39 pm EST By Taegan Goddard

    Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) told reporters that he would not support confirming another nominee to the Supreme Court right before the midterm elections and would prefer to wait until the country knows which party will control the Senate in 2023, The Hill reports.

    Said Manchin: “I’m not going to be hypocritical on that. If it comes a week or two weeks before like it did with our last Supreme Court nominee, I think that’s a time it should go to the next election.”

    Last straw with this dude. Now he’s Lindsay Fucking Graham? Bastard.

  72. 72.

    Baud

    February 14, 2022 at 6:39 pm

    Via Reddit. Not sure how old this is.

    Leaked call from Russian mercenaries after losing a battle to 50 US troops in Syria 2018. It’s estimated 300 Russians were killed.

  73. 73.

    Baud

    February 14, 2022 at 6:40 pm

    @trollhattan:

    I don’t know what game he’s playing, but that’s not anywhere close to the timeline.

  74. 74.

    Bill Arnold

    February 14, 2022 at 6:41 pm

    Been watching the weather forecast for Kyiv for the last couple of weeks. (Very heavy vehicles. Mud.)
    https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/ua/kyiv

  75. 75.

    debbie

    February 14, 2022 at 6:41 pm

    @Cermet:

    NATO is a defense organization. It was formed to protect member nations from the Soviet Union. As we see now, that protection is still needed. Anyone who thinks Putin will stop at Ukraine knows nothing about greed and power. Neither are ever satisfied.

  76. 76.

    Steve in the ATL

    February 14, 2022 at 6:43 pm

    @trollhattan:

     

    If the CIA caused AIDS, then yes.

    OMG don’t be stupid. The CIA didn’t cause AIDS; it just weaponized it!

  77. 77.

    Steve in the ATL

    February 14, 2022 at 6:44 pm

    @RaflW: “no longer”?!  Idiots.

  78. 78.

    debbie

    February 14, 2022 at 6:46 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    I call B.S. What, they suddenly woke up and looked around? More like rat rushing from a sinking ship.

  79. 79.

    danielx

    February 14, 2022 at 6:47 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    One would think it unusual for a major accounting firm to fire a major well-heeled client, presuming Trump has restrained his tendency to stiff his creditors in Mazars’ case.

    It would be irresponsible not to speculate.*

    *This phrase is the only reason – ever – to feel any gratitude to Our Lady of Stolichnaya.

  80. 80.

    danielx

    February 14, 2022 at 6:50 pm

    @trollhattan: ​
     
    I did not realize Manchin has his lips so firmly affixed to Mitch McConnell’s wrinkly buttocks.

  81. 81.

    bjacques

    February 14, 2022 at 6:56 pm

    @Bill Arnold: I added Pripyat and Dnipro to my iPhone weather app, and am wondering if the last 3-4 days in the low 20s constitutes a hard freeze. Probably not.

  82. 82.

    Fair Economist

    February 14, 2022 at 6:58 pm

    @Cermet: Were Ukraine part of NATO, there would be no chance of war right now, just like with the Baltics. It’s a real shame it wasn’t able to join earlier.

  83. 83.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 14, 2022 at 7:01 pm

    @Bill Arnold: The ultra-right in Ukraine is a minuscule political factor.

  84. 84.

    Steve in the ATL

    February 14, 2022 at 7:11 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: now you’re making us jealous

  85. 85.

    Cacti

    February 14, 2022 at 7:15 pm

    While I don’t think the US has much moral high ground to be lecturing anyone about military aggression, it’s wrong when Russia does it too.

  86. 86.

    Geminid

    February 14, 2022 at 7:19 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: There is a very good refutation in the LGM blog of the DSA’s January 31 statement on the Ukaine situation. One of many DSA half-truths and outright lies debunked was that the Ukrainian far right was a significant political force; the author said that these parties won 2% of the vote in the election after Maidan. It’s quite a good article.

  87. 87.

    Philbert

    February 14, 2022 at 7:25 pm

    @topclimber: Another item of Ukraine moving away from Russia. Ukraine is about to test disconnecting its electrical grid from Russia, and operate in isolation. This is a temporary test in preparation for switching to EU power in 2023.  Per Atlantic Council.

  88. 88.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 14, 2022 at 8:02 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Not according to BiP.

  89. 89.

    Sloane Ranger

    February 14, 2022 at 8:26 pm

    And there were people here saying what a great leader Corbyn was. Yet here he is proving why so many of us long term Labour supporters were concerned about his judgement. That’s not to say he’s a bad person, just an idealist who was, and is, totally unsuited to the hard realities of geopolitics. Although our current PM is just as bad, only in different ways.

  90. 90.

    lowtechcyclist

    February 14, 2022 at 8:29 pm

    @Nettoyeur: Every day makes Ukraine and NATO a little stronger, and every day is another day for Russian soldiers living in the cold.

    And exposing each other to Covid.

  91. 91.

    Jinchi

    February 14, 2022 at 8:41 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: IDK. I am guessing he is criticizing the Biden administration.

    It’s easy enough to read what he wrote:

    We should be clear about who is most responsible for this looming crisis: Vladimir Putin. Having already seized parts of Ukraine in 2014, the Russian president now threatens to take over the entire country and destroy Ukrainian democracy. In my view, we must unequivocally support the sovereignty of Ukraine and make clear that the international community will impose severe consequences on Putin and his associates if he does not change course.

    That clearly reiterates Biden’s foreign policy.

    As for this

    I am extremely concerned when I hear the familiar drumbeats in Washington, the bellicose rhetoric that gets amplified before every war, demanding that we must “show strength”, “get tough” and not engage in “appeasement”.

    Biden is not the target of that criticism since Biden isn’t threatening war or bemoaning appeasement.

    Sanders is clearly refering to comments like this (Joni Ernst):

    Biden administration has ‘doctrine of appeasement’ toward Russia: Ernst

    and this (Tom Cotton)

    Biden’s weak-kneed appeasement provokes Putin, America’s enemies

    and this (Townhall)

    The Biden Administration Is Urging Ukraine to Appease Russia

    These are all rightwing or Republican critics banging the war drums in direct opposition to President Biden.

  92. 92.

    Bill Arnold

    February 14, 2022 at 8:59 pm

    @Gin & Tonic:
    I was referring to this NYTimes piece, but will trust your word on the matter. (I do wonder whether Russia is playing both sides, though.)
    Thanks BTW for that link a week ago to that TheBulwark piece by Natalia Antonova.[1]
    Armed Nationalists in Ukraine Pose a Threat Not Just to Russia – Kyiv is encouraging the arming of nationalist paramilitary groups to thwart a Russian invasion. But they could also destabilize the government if it agrees to a peace deal they reject. (nytimes, 10 Feb 2022)

    [1] The Ghosts of Kyiv and the Shadow of War – Reflections on the spirit of Ukraine’s capital, as worries of a Russian invasion grow. (NATALIA ANTONOVA, JANUARY 28, 2022, The Bulwark)

  93. 93.

    dnfree

    February 14, 2022 at 10:00 pm

    @Sloane Ranger: let me just say I appreciate your insights both here and in the Covid posts.

  94. 94.

    Sally

    February 14, 2022 at 11:00 pm

    @Eolirin: I so closely and strongly echo everything you say, on this topic.  Ukraine is a sovereign nation, as are each of the EU and NATO members.  All are entitled to make their own decisions, and not be dictated to by Russia.  The point of being a sovereign nation.  Also, too, finally, all Ukraine is entitled to do is petition to apply.  Then there are many onerous criteria to meet, which, as you’ve said previously, they do not.  Putin is seeing to that.  I am upset that too many people are happy to remove agency (that world again – only Democrats have agency, in this case only Biden can create peace) from sovereign nations.  Including Russia.  Putin has agency to pull back, no one is “forcing” him to go to war.  For heaven’s sake!  If he wants to be a grown up, then act like it!

  95. 95.

    Mo MacArbie

    February 15, 2022 at 4:40 am

    Ah yes, “appeasement”, the Republiglish word for foreign policy. It appears just after “amnesty” in my handy Republiglish-to-English dictionary.

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